TheSearcher
Are you sure about that?
I think it's been over 12 hours now. I started following the action yesterday evening.
Even so, wow.
I think it's been over 12 hours now. I started following the action yesterday evening.
I don't expect intervention from the outside world beyond harsh press releases and finger pointing.
11:00h -American president George W. Bush demands an immediate cease fire
I believe this happened at 11 AM EST.
President Saakashvili is doing live satellite interviews with news channels trying to whip up support for Georgia. I just saw him on CNN International being very cagey.
He came short of saying that Georgia and Russia were at war, he said the Georgians are merely engaged in self-defence efforts.
It's extremely unusual for a head of state to do this, Georgia is really hamming it up.
U.S. troops start training exercise in Georgia Tue Jul 15, 5:40 AM ET
VAZIANI, Georgia (Reuters) - One thousand U.S. troops began a military training exercise in Georgia on Tuesday against a backdrop of growing friction between Georgia and neighboring Russia.
ADVERTISEMENT
Officials said the exercise, called "Immediate Response 2008," had been planned for months and was not linked to a stand-off between Moscow and Tbilisi over two Russian-backed separatists regions of Georgia.
The United States is an ally of Georgia and has irritated Russia by backing Tbilisi's bid to join the NATO military alliance.
"The main purpose of these exercises is to increase the cooperation and partnership between U.S. and Georgian forces," Brigadier General William B. Garrett, commander of the U.S. military's Southern European Task Force, told reporters.
The war games involve 600 Georgian troops and smaller numbers from ex-Soviet Armenia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine.
The two-week exercise was taking place at the Vaziani military base near the capital Tbilisi, which was a Russian air force base until Russian forces withdrew at the start of this decade under a European arms reduction agreement.
Georgia and the Pentagon cooperate closely. Georgia has a 2,000-strong contingent supporting the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq, and Washington provides training and equipment to the Georgian military.
Georgia last week recalled its ambassador in Moscow in protest at Russia sending fighter jets into Georgian airspace. Tbilisi urged the West to condemn Russia's actions.
Russia said the flights were to prevent Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili from launching a military operation against the separatist South Ossetia region.
Moscow accuses Saakashvili of preparing to restore Tbilisi's control over South Ossetia and the second breakaway region of Abkhazia by force. Tbilisi says that is a pretext for Russia to effectively annexe large chunks of Georgian territory.
U.S. troops set for ex-Soviet republic of Georgia
February 28, 2002 Posted: 3:46 AM EST (0846 GMT)
U.S. military experts say they suspect al Qaeda fighters may have fled to Georgia's Pankisi Gorge region from Afghanistan.
From Jill Dougherty
CNN Moscow Bureau
MOSCOW, Russia (CNN) -- Up to 200 U.S. troops could be headed to the former Soviet republic of Georgia to help train and equip its military against terrorism threats, U.S. military officials said.
But a top Russian official said on Wednesday that such a move would aggravate the already difficult situation in the Caucasus region.
The arrival of U.S. troops in Georgia would mark a further expansion of the war against terrorism by the United States, which has been fighting terrorists in Afghanistan and is providing training to the Philippine government in its battle against Muslim rebels.
No final decision has been made to enact the plan, but the effort could occur in a matter of weeks, U.S. military officials said. The troops could include Special Forces. Ten UH-1H Huey helicopters are being provided, military officials say, and they are largely used for transporting troops and gear.
VIDEO
Will America's war on terrorism come to Georgia? CNN's Jill Dougherty reports (February 27)
Play video
(QuickTime, Real or Windows Media)
MORE STORIES
Georgia: Caucasus flashpoint
EXTRA INFORMATION
Map of Georgia and its neighbors
The U.S. European Command said it has had one military trainer and six contractors on the ground in the Georgian capital of Tbilisi since November, training air crews in the use of U.S. combat helicopters.
Reacting to the news, Russia's foreign ministry has said that the move could exacerbate conditions in the former Soviet republic.
Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov told ORT television: "We think it [a U.S. presence] could further aggravate the situation in the region, which is difficult as it is."
The European Command also said a 40-man assessment team was in Georgia from late October through early November to meet Georgian military units identified as key units in their fight against terrorism.
The Pentagon has said U.S. troops sent to Georgia would not be engaged in direct fighting.
The U.S. military plan for Georgia had its beginnings last year in a visit to Washington by Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze.
Shevardnadze asked for assistance in battling Chechen guerrillas who have crossed the border into his country from the Russian region of Chechnya and in fighting what he says may be a growing number of al Qaeda-related fighters in Georgia.
European Command sources said that there was no U.S. presence in the sensitive Pankisi Gorge region, where Chechen guerillas are located who have come over the Russian-Georgian border. U.S. military specialists also said they believe members of the al Qaeda terrorist network may have fled to the region from Afghanistan.
Russia and the United States have said they want Georgia to tackle the forces in the Pankisi Gorge, but Moscow is uncomfortable at the prospect of American troops in a country that until a decade ago was part of the Soviet Union.
A senior Pentagon official said Tuesday that U.S. assistance in Georgia would be similar to the aid given in the Philippines.
More than 600 U.S. troops are providing training and logistical support to Philippine government forces battling Abu Sayyaf, a Muslim rebel group supported by al Qaeda in the past.
Georgia, which is in the Caucasus Mountains, is bordered by Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey.
Georgians previously have participated in joint military training as a part of NATO's Partnership for Peace, a program that promotes military cooperation and political contacts within the alliance.
Expose, OMG, what would happen if bunches of our Special Forces were killed by the Russian forces.
LEW, what's Alex Jones saying?
I would suspect that our SPEC OPS guys would be some of the most capable and resilient soldiers we have in dealing with staying alive under those conditions. But, this story is so confused/confusing that I wonder if they'd know who is friend or foe under the circumstances?
Mike
So putting pieces together, there are American special forces and Israeli "advisors," too?
Prayers for you brother Jumpy. My family has done 7 tours in the ME, but this is something entirely different.
Dutch warned us about this last week, but seeing it unfold is still surrealistic.
The TeeVee is mentioning the story, but not featuring it that I have seen in the past 45 minutes I have been hoping to see something as I monitor here.
ETA: Faux (I know, I was desperate!) News just hi-lighted that airport was bombed, hundreds dead and more coverage to come in the next hour.
ALSO WORTH NOTING: Observers of Biblical prophecies such as Ezekiel 38 and 39 will note that directly or effectively controlling Georgia would be key when Moscow one day begins moving Russian military forces through Turkey and into Lebanon, Syria and eventually against Israel.
GOOD Zulu! Where did you find that feed?The live news feed from RussiaToday just said that 1400 have been killed so far in the fighting.
Zulu Cowboy
________________________________________
THE GOALS BEHIND MOSCOW’S PROXY OFFENSIVE IN SOUTH OSSETIA
As anticipated (see EDM, July 11, August 4) Moscow has initiated an offensive military operation by proxy against Georgia in South Ossetia. Although the blow had been expected in upper Abkhazia and may yet materialize there, Russia shifted the direction of attack to the South Ossetian front.
The brazen attacks during the night of August 7 to 8 in South Ossetia left Tbilisi with no choice but to respond. Continuing Georgian restraint would have resulted in irreparable human, territorial, and political losses. Moscow’s military and propaganda operation bears the hallmarks of its blitzkriegs in Transnistria in 1992 and Abkhazia in 1993. Georgia’s defensive response in South Ossetia since August 8 is legally within the country’s rights under international law and militarily commensurate with the attacks.
Russia usually stages military incidents in Georgia in August, while European officials take their vacations. This year, however, the operations are systematic, lengthier, and considerably higher on the ladder of escalation than in previous years. After concentrating supplementary forces in Abkhazia during the spring and expanding its military infrastructure there in early summer, Moscow switched on the escalation process in South Ossetia.
On July 3 an assassination attempt targeted Dmitry Sanakoyev, head of the Tbilisi-backed interim administration of South Ossetia, which controls at least one third of the region’s territory. The blast injured Sanakoyev’s bodyguards. On July 9 Moscow demonstratively acknowledged that four Russian Air Force planes had flown a mission over South Ossetia. That action sought to deter Georgia from flying unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), thus blinding Tbilisi to Russian and proxy military movements in the area. A series of roadside bomb blasts targeted Georgian police patrols. During the second half of July and the first days of August, Russian-commanded Ossetian troops under the authority of Russian-led South Ossetian authorities fired repeatedly at Georgian-controlled villages, forcing Georgian police to fire back defensively.
Meanwhile, Russia’s state-controlled media orchestrated a war scare, accusing Georgia of intentions to attack. In the North Caucasus and Russia proper, Cossack chieftains on government payroll threatened to send “volunteers” to fight against Georgia. The North Ossetian authorities, apparently aware of Moscow’s plans, showed nervousness at the prospect of becoming embroiled in a major military operation by proxy to their south.
The goals behind Moscow’s operation are threefold, each with its own time frame. The immediate goal is to re-establish the authority of Russian-controlled negotiating and “peacekeeping” formats. By firing on Georgian positions unremittingly and escalating the intensity of the fire with every passing day, Moscow hopes to force Georgia to turn to those Russian-controlled formats to relieve the pressure. Furthermore, Moscow wants to force Tbilisi to acknowledge a leading Russian role as “guarantor” of an eventual political settlement.
Moscow’s next goal, on a timeframe overlapping with the first, is to capture Georgian-controlled villages in South Ossetia. The pattern of attacks since August 6 indicate the intent to reduce the Sanakoyev administration’s territory to insignificance or even remove it from South Ossetia altogether. If successful, this undertaking may well be replicated in upper Abkhazia by Russian and proxy forces attempting to evict authorities loyal to Tbilisi.
The strategic political goal is to dissuade NATO from approving a membership action plan (MAP) for Georgia at the alliance’s December 2008 or April 2009 meetings. More immediately, Moscow seeks to derail the North Atlantic Council’s assessment visit to Georgia, scheduled for September, or at least to influence the visit’s assessment about Georgia’s eligibility for a MAP. Since NATO’s “Russia-Firsters” insist that unresolved conflicts disqualify Georgia from a MAP, Russia seeks to demonstrate that those conflicts are indeed unresolved. NATO’s failure to approve a Georgian MAP at the April 2008 summit emboldened Russia to escalate military operations against Georgia.
Moscow also seeks to bleed Georgia economically through protracted military operations. Russia can not tolerate the successful economic performance of a Western-oriented government on Russia’s border. Aware, furthermore, that Georgia’s government is accountable to public opinion, Moscow seeks to force the government to choose between yielding at the risk of a domestic backlash or, alternatively, fighting back in a costly confrontation
Resemblances with the Russian interventions in the early 1990s in Transnistria and Abkhazia are unmistakable. In that scenario, the Russian media create a hysterical, brink-of-war atmosphere, portraying the small country targeted for attack as a dangerous aggressor. Russian-armed proxy troops, already in place on the target country’s territory, attack localities and seats of authority. Cossacks and North Caucasus “volunteers” are sent in. Russian officials can claim that the attackers act on their own, outside Moscow’s control. Russian military intelligence coordinates the operation, while air and ground forces provide cover and would intervene directly if the target country defends itself. In the final stage of this scenario, Russian “peacekeepers” perpetuate the gains achieved on the ground. Throughout the crisis, most Western governments are confused and react irrelevantly by urging restraint on “both sides,” ultimately tolerating the Russian faits accomplis.
That scenario started unfolding in South Ossetia in late July. By August 6 and 7, heavily armed proxy troops opened fire on Georgian villages, while the secessionist authorities refused to talk with Tbilisi. The attacking forces began destroying the transmission antennae of Georgian mobile telephone systems. Arms and paramilitary groups poured in from Russia to South Ossetia through the Russian-controlled Roki tunnel. Russian officials in Georgia claimed that the attacking forces were out of Russia’s control. Officials in Moscow, meanwhile, justified the attacks directly and indirectly by accusing Georgia of aggression (Interfax, Itar-Tass, Russian Television, August 4-7).
At 7:00 P.M. local time on August 7, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili spoke live on national television, announcing a unilateral ceasefire and asking the other side also to cease hostilities. In highly conciliatory words, Saakashvili called for talks “in any format”; reaffirmed the long-standing offer of full autonomy for South Ossetia; proposed that Russia should guarantee that solution; offered a general amnesty; and pleaded for international intercession to stop the hostilities (Rustavi-2 TV, August 7).
Following Saakashvili’s address, attacks on Georgian villages intensified. The village of Avnevi was almost completely destroyed, Tamarasheni and Prisi shelled, and the police station in Kurta, seat of the Sanakoyev administration, smashed by artillery fire. Civilians began fleeing the villages.
These attacks forced Tbilisi to take defensive action. By 10:30 P.M. local time on August 7 the Georgians returned fire. During the night, Georgian forces including armored columns began advancing toward Tskhinvali, the secessionist authorities’ administrative center. These Georgian actions have halted the repetition of a 1992-1993 type scenario in 2008.
--Vladimir Socor