Solar Grand Solar Minimum part deux

TxGal

Day by day
Adapt 2030 has a new podcast out:

Its Going to Be a Snowy N. Hemisphere Winter - YouTube

Its Going to Be a Snowy N. Hemisphere Winter
25,556 views
Nov 8, 2021

View: https://youtu.be/MUkRW35UvE0
Run time is 12:27

Synopsis provided:

All signs lead to a snowy winter with record lake effect snow already in the books and early snows across NC and Tennessee peaks, La Nina is still at intense strengths that set up for wet / snowy patterns through 2021-2022 winter. Here we go are you ready for snowplow and salt truck driver shortages?
 

TxGal

Day by day
Oppenheimer posted this one not long ago:

Up to 20 Inches Snow, 95 mph Wind Gusts Expected In The Sierra - La Palma & Iceland Volcano Update - YouTube

Up to 20 Inches Snow, 95 mph Wind Gusts Expected In The Sierra - La Palma & Iceland Volcano Update
5,994 views
Premiered 8 hours ago

View: https://youtu.be/aD9s-ukrMZ4
Run time is 11:36

Synopsis provided:

Up to 20 inches snow, 95 mph wind gusts expected in Sierra https://bit.ly/3khbtLq
Tahoe; About a foot of snow expected for mountains https://bit.ly/307wzoj
Possible snow, forecast for Michigan later this week https://bit.ly/3kg0eTt
Twin Cities wintry systems bring snow through Sunday https://bit.ly/3BYH2zC
These areas of the Inland Northwest could see first measurable snow of season on Tuesday https://bit.ly/3D2aNBg
25 degrees cooler Monday; Mountain snow Tuesday night through Thursday https://bit.ly/3kmcrpM
Sierra Nevada pass to close with widespread rain, snow forecast for NorCal https://bit.ly/3EZOn3U
Iowa Could See Snow This Weekend https://ihr.fm/3qk3jpJ
Series of Pacific Storms Continues to Impact the Northwest; Watching Storm Potential for Midweek https://www.weather.gov/
GFS Model Total Snow US https://bit.ly/300vlvc
Early-season snow blankets Beijing, northern China https://abcn.ws/3EZOI6G
EXCEPTIONAL COLD WAVE ENGULFS 90% OF CHINA–BEIJING SEES SNOW 23 DAYS EARLIER THAN USUAL, NORTH AFRICA SUFFERS RARE NOVEMBER FLURRIES, + CONTINENT-SPANNING POLAR COLD SWEEPS AUSTRALIA https://bit.ly/3kfiv3q
Worldwide Volcano News https://bit.ly/3y58XgJ
Strong earthquake in Bárðarbunga volcano this morning https://icelandgeology.net/
Iceland Earthquake Map https://bit.ly/3vNKaNe
La Palma Quakes vs Depth Chart https://bit.ly/2XseTTk
La Palma Seismic Tremor https://bit.ly/3wq2Ovn
and more
 

TxGal

Day by day
D.C. Suffers Coldest Start To November In A Decade, Violent Arctic Plunge To Engulf The ENTIRE United States, + The Link Between Sunspots And Weather - Electroverse

gfs_T2ma_us_52-e1636451806727.png

Articles Extreme Weather GSM

D.C. SUFFERS COLDEST START TO NOVEMBER IN A DECADE, VIOLENT ARCTIC PLUNGE TO ENGULF THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES, + THE LINK BETWEEN SUNSPOTS AND WEATHER
NOVEMBER 9, 2021 CAP ALLON

D.C. SUFFERS COLDEST START TO NOVEMBER IN A DECADE

Washington D.C. has just experienced its coldest first week of November since 2012 (the year 2012 occurred a few years after the onset of solar cycle 24 — a very similar setup to today re solar cycle 25).

Last week, the average temperature in D.C. finished at a mere 48.3F — that’s more than 5 degrees below the seasonal norm.

The chill represented a jarring reversal from October, points out the washingtonpost.com, with the previous month posting an average temperature of more than 5 degrees above the norm. But rather than serving as an indication of catastrophic anthropogenic warming, this stark flip-flopping better serves as evidence of the ‘swings between extremes’ witnessed during times of low solar activity (click below for more on that):


The nights in November’s first week, in particular, stood out for being cold, dipping into the 30s five straight times between November 3 and 7 — that actually marked the longest streak with lows in the 30s in November’s first week since 2002, and not since 1962 have there been more.

Just about all of the regions of the Washington suffered at least one instance of freezing temperatures, ending the growing season. At Dulles International Airport, for example, the mercury fell below freezing five straight mornings spanning November 3 to 7, dipping as low as 28 degrees on November 6 — that equaled the most on record for the locale in November’s first week.

The WP article concludes that a “dip in the jet stream over the eastern United States … allowed the cold air to spill south”, which is accurate, but what they fail to address is the cause:


VIOLENT ARCTIC PLUNGE TO ENGULF THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES

A severe blast of polar cold is preparing to drop anomalously-far south and engulf the entire United States–from coast to coast. I don’t consider the above title hyperbole — if the forecasts play out, this will prove historic.

Pockets of cold are expected as we approach this weekend, particularly for central regions; however, looking at the latest GFS 2m temperature run (shown below), the real fun is set to commence around Thursday, November 18 as an all-encompassing Arctic air mass drops down from Canada:


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Nov 18 – Nov 23 [tropicaltidbits.com].

A word of caution, though: this forecast is still in the unreliable time-frame — the models could easily shift. But saying that, the GFS predicting such a widespread blast of cold and with such confidence, too, does lead me to believe that this, or something similar, is indeed about to play out — and if it does, cold-records will be threatened across almost every state.

gfs_T2ma_us_52.png

GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Nov 21 [tropicaltidbits.com].


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Nov 22 [tropicaltidbits.com].

The snowfall totals are expected to be record-challenging, too.

In fact, the National Weather Service (NWS) has already issued winter weather advisories for large portions of the west this week. The Lake Tahoe area, for example, was to expect a foot+ (30+ cm) of snow in the upper elevations between 4PM Monday through 7AM Tuesday, while as much as 20 inches (half a meter) was to hit the surrounding mountains–above 7,000 feet (2,133 meters). The weather service warned that tree limbs could be blown down and that power outages are possible.

Looking ahead, and to next week’s polar outbreak, far greater totals are on the cards, and across a much wider area, too:


GFS Total Snowfall (inches) Nov 9 – Nov 25 [tropicaltidbits.com].

Again, this is worth keeping a very close-eye on.

Thanksgiving could be historically cold and snowy this year as winter 2021-22 begins early — stay tuned for updates.

Furthermore, these totals will of course also add to the ‘Northern Hemisphere Total Snow Mass Chart’, maintained by the Finnish Meteorological Institute, which is already tracking comfortably-above the 1982-2012 average:


[FMI]

SUNSPOTS AND WEATHER

I want to point you to an interesting article from justinweather.com, dated November 8.

The article reveals, with the appropriate data, that colder and snowier conditions prevail during the winters immediately after solar minimums. It also touches on the wider topic of low solar activity and global cooling, as well as the NAO and the link between Cosmic Rays and cloud-cover.

The article also includes this quote from NOAA:

“The duration of solar minimum may also have an impact on Earth’s climate. During solar minimum there is a maximum in the amount of Cosmic rays, high energy particles whose source is outside our Solar system, reaching earth. There is a theory that cosmic rays can create nucleation sites in the atmosphere which seed cloud formation and create cloudier conditions. If this were true, then there would be a significant impact on climate, which would be modulated by the 11-year solar cycle.”

This is all I’ve ever said on Electroverse: “the sun controls the climate”.

And the science backs it up!

It’s merely the politics, agendas and powerful propagandizing of the day that are blocking this truth from being widely held.


The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with the great conjunction, historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among other forcings).

Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.

Furthermore, we can’t ignore the slew of new scientific papers stating the immense impact The Beaufort Gyre could have on the Gulf Stream, and therefore the climate overall.





Prepare accordinglylearn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Heavy downpours dampen olive harvest outlook in Greece -- Earth Changes -- Sott.net

Heavy downpours dampen olive harvest outlook in Greece

Costas Vasilopoulos
Olive Oil Times
Mon, 08 Nov 2021 11:36 UTC

hail
While olive growers and producers are preparing for the upcoming harvesting season in Greece, several of the country's most productive regions have been battered by heavy downpours and gusts of wind.

Severe damage, including flooded groves, broken olive trees and drupes destroyed by hail, was reported by producers in the Ionian islands, parts of the central mainland, Crete, the western Peloponnese and the Halkidiki peninsula in the north.
The recent gales and torrential rains that swept our area caused excessive destruction, hardly leaving any fruits on many of our olive trees.

- Nikolaos Kalliafas, olive grower in Aetolia-Acarnania
The weather phenomena were especially intense in the region of Aetolia-Acarnania in central-west Greece, the largest producing territory of Kalamon table olives in the country, where farmers were confronted with storms and extremely high levels of rain.

"The land in our area is very fertile, and we produce top-quality olives of the Kalamon variety," Nikolaos Kalliafas, an olive grower based in Gouries, near the delta of Acheloos River, told Olive Oil Times.

"The recent gales and torrential rains that swept our area caused excessive destruction, hardly leaving any fruits on many of our olive trees," he added. "I am 51, and I have been in the fields since I was a little boy. I have never seen such erratic weather before."

Kalliafas also noted that the weather-related problems in the area are nothing new but began to appear two to three years ago.

"For more than two years now, our production of edible olives has turned sour," he said. "This season, things are worse since I am expecting to get only half of the quantity produced the previous season."

"The decline in production is not due to the [alternate bearing] production cycle of the trees or anything else, but due to the abnormal weather which brought unusually warm days in spring and complete drought in the summer, seriously impacting the fruition of our olive trees," Kalliafas added.

"The recent storms were just the finishing touch, and we also have to worry about the gloeosporium pathogen [also known as olive leprosy], which emerges when increased levels of humidity exist," he continued. "We can't apply any crop-dusting operations now since we start harvesting in five days."

More producers in the area also described a grim situation, with their olive groves remaining underwater for several days, damaging both the olive trees and their drupes.

The farmers association of Agrinio, the largest city in the region, issued an announcement warning that hard times are still to come for local farmers and olive growers.

"The local farmers have suffered another blow in their income, who are in despair after the damages previously caused by the hail and frost, and the significant losses due to the reduced fruition of the olive and citrus trees," the announcement read. "The rural economy of our area is on the verge of extinction."

In Crete, the impact of the bad weather on the island's olive growers was milder. However, many farmers in the region of Heraklion were affected, especially in the areas of Monofatsi and Pediada.

Strong wind gusts and hail knocked olive fruits to the ground and inflicted damages on the branches and trunks of the trees.

"The intense hailstorms in various areas of the Heraklion district have caused great destruction in the countryside," said Vassilis Kegeroglou, the local member of the Greek parliament. "The farmers can only count their wounds."


Kegeroglou also called on the Ministry of Agriculture to record the damage caused by the storms and provide compensation to the affected farmers.

In terms of olive oil production, a medium yield is expected on the island, according to Vaggelis Protogerakis, the head of the association of Heraklion olive oil producers. Nonetheless, the rains proved beneficial in some areas, improving the quality of the oil.

"This year, the production [of olive oil] is expected to be reduced compared to last year," Protogerakis said. "Some areas will have [a good yield], but in no case can we talk about strong production."

"Quality is expected to be great after the recent rains," he added. "However, the projection for reduced production also applies to the rest of Greece...and the rest of the member states [of the E.U.] And this makes us hope for better producers' prices in Crete."
 

TxGal

Day by day
Historic Blizzards Blast China: Century-Old Records Fall, 27 "Red Alerts" Issued - Electroverse

record-snow-china-scaled-e1636541865780.jpg

Extreme Weather GSM

HISTORIC BLIZZARDS BLAST CHINA: CENTURY-OLD RECORDS FALL, 27 “RED ALERTS” ISSUED
NOVEMBER 10, 2021 CAP ALLON

A powerful cold wave is continuing to pound Eastern Asia this week–most notably China where heavy snowfall has effectively shutdown as host of towns and cities.

China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as well as the northeastern provinces of Jilin, Liaoning and Heilongjiang have issued a combined 27 red alerts for ‘global warming goodness’ –the highest warning level– as a number of locales register their biggest snowfalls ever in books dating back more than a century.

Meteorologists in Tongliao, Inner Mongolia have called this snowstorm “an extremely random and sudden extreme weather event,” reports the globaltimes.cn. Accumulations there have reached 59 cm (23.2 inches), breaking a record held since 1951.

Video captured in Tongliao on Nov 9 shows a resident opening their front door to a wall of white. While other footage shows firefighters rescuing five people after their house collapsed under the weight of the record-breaking snow:

View: https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/1457959423066787840
Run time is 0:48

Tongliao alone is responsible for issuing five red alerts for blizzards.

An official at the Tongliao Meteorological Bureau has confirmed that the region is indeed experiencing its heaviest snows since weather records began — of the 11 meteorological observation points within the city, seven have detected the highest snowfall in recorded history.

I’m calling the below video, “isn’t global warming a bitch”:

View: https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1457716796069277713
Run time is 0:19

Jilin suffered its earliest ‘cold wave’ in at least a decade this week, which resulted in shutdowns of land and air traffic.

The snowstorm also put pressure on the province’s power grids, and caused the collapse of twenty transmission lines to. In response, the State Grid Corp dispatched 3,000 employees to fix the issues.

Snowfall records were also toppled across Heilongjiang and Liaoning provinces.


Heavy snow in Anshan, Liaoning province.

Image
Heavy snow in Anshan, Liaoning province.

As reported by the bignewsnetwork.com, Shenyang, the capital city of Liaoning Province, had by Tuesday logged an average snowfall of 5.1cm (2 inches) and a maximum snow depth of 4.1cm (1.6 inches); while this may not sound a lot, these are the highest totals since 1905, local meteorological authorities have confirmed (since the Centennial Minimum).

View: https://twitter.com/ChinaDaily/status/1458079517579231233

View: https://twitter.com/IFENG__official/status/1458292112760442883
Run time is 0:18

Chinese meteorologists have attributed the historic blizzards to an intense convergence of cold and warm air. They also note that, coincidentally, this year’s snowstorm in Tongliao coincided with the date (in the lunar calendar) of last year’s blizzards.

IMPLICATIONS

China’s Ministry of Emergency Management is assisting with the disaster response and relief work. Officials in Shenyang have mobilized 24,000 people to clear the city, and have provided over 2,000 sets of machinery and equipment.

Tragically, a number of people have died in the storms — an early start to the winter death toll figure, which last year set a new record.

The snow, if it doesn’t melt soon, also risks what is known as a “white disaster”–a problem in pastoral areas when snow piles up on the grassland and livestock cannot graze, China Central Television reported. Moreover, inclement weather, which has been besieging China all year, has already led to skyrocketing food prices, hurting the pockets of Chinese consumers.

“All the vegetables are dead in the ground,” said Zhou Rui, a farmer who cultivates about 7 hectares (17 acres) in Juancheng county. There was little left to pick after fields of spinach, cabbage and coriander were flooded, she added, and farmers have not been able to replant due to deep freeze now ravaging the country.

The price of spinach, broccoli, cucumbers, and cabbage have also more than doubled in recent weeks — rocketing prices are a hot topic on China’s Twitter-like Weibo, with many users saying vegetables now cost more than pork, the nation’s staple meat: “Coriander is now 17.8 yuan per half kilo, it really is more expensive than pork!” wrote one user in the eastern province of Anhui.

The rise, at a time of growing scrutiny over inflation, is worrying government officials in Beijing who are keen to ensure sufficient food supplies ahead of winter. Higher energy prices are also pushing up operating costs for greenhouses, in addition to record prices this year for fertilizer.

“Our natural gas prices are up at least 100% and we think they could triple during Chinese New Year,” said Xu Dan, manager of the HortiPolaris greenhouse in Beijing, referring to China’s most important holiday, due next February. “I have to find a way to increase our energy efficiency. You can’t ask consumers to pay three times the price.”

Chinese coal prices have soared 200% this year after a record-cold winter of 2020-21 depleted reserves.

Amid the global energy crisis, local governments are going all-out to ensure that homes remain warm — the provinces of Jilin and Heilongjiang, for example, are working to increase their energy production capacities as well as increase coal imports.

LOOKING AHEAD

Additional snowfall is forecast for the remainder of the week across Eastern Asia as the Arctic air mass lingers.

And looking further ahead, another shot of polar cold is expected to sink unusually-far south next week. Siberia is set to suffer temperature departures some 20C below the seasonal average–similar to how the record-breaking winter of 2020-21 began.


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies for Nov 19 [tropicaltidbits.com].

That Arctic front then threatens to drop further south –and into China– by next weekend (Nov 21):



And finally, spare a thought for these poor souls in Gansu province as they line up in the snow waiting to unlock their ‘COVID health passes’ for the week. The world has always been crazy, but now it’s insane, too.

View: https://twitter.com/SonsOfMontesQ/status/1456462946280878107
Run time is 0:30

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with the great conjunction, historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among other forcings).

Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.

Furthermore, we can’t ignore the slew of new scientific papers stating the immense impact The Beaufort Gyre could have on the Gulf Stream, and therefore the climate overall.





Prepare accordinglylearn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.
 

nomifyle

TB Fanatic
Last week DH went to a small store and bought deer corn, it was $10.90 for a 50# bag. I called a couple of other stores and they were up to $3 cheaper per 50# bag. Since DH has been sick he went to this store for convience. Usually this store is not so much higher, not sure what's going on.

God is good all the time

Judy
 

TxGal

Day by day
Good grief, it's 38 here this morning. Lower than the forecast. Again. I've pretty much gotten to the point that I subtract 5 degrees from our forecasted low, anytime we've had a cool front blow in the from the north. I don't think this bodes well for the coming winter.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Another Volcano making noise, this is from Oppenheimer:

Iceland Hekla Volcano System Awakens - Magnitude M 5.1 Earthquake Plus Seismic Swarm Ongoing! - YouTube

Iceland Hekla Volcano System Awakens - Magnitude M 5.1 Earthquake Plus Seismic Swarm Ongoing!
7,391 views
Premiered 17 hours ago

View: https://youtu.be/mitm_AUaTeM
Run time is 4:49

Synopsis provided:

Early information: Magnitude Mw5,2 earthquake in Hekla volcano system https://bit.ly/313mSWn
Iceland - earthquakes during the last 48 hours https://bit.ly/3vNKaNe
Iceland volcano map https://en.vedur.is/photos/volcanoes/...
Hekla Volcano, Iceland Fact Sheet https://www.britannica.com/place/Hekla
Hekla Volcano Historical Eruptions
https://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn...
 

Martinhouse

Deceased
TxGal, it was probably around 38 here, too, early this morning, but I didn't get out to check the thermometer until close to 8:30 and it showed 42 then, so I suspect we had around 38 here, too earlier.

I have still not had a frost right here on my place...probably because I've let all but my immediate yard grow into a huge tangle. It's become like a little protected "holler". I can tell, though, that out on the road and all the way to the small town where I do my shopping, there have definitely been some low enough temps to nip most things. I know I haven't had any because my potato plants are still nice and healthy and not a one of them looks like cooked spinach yet.

It's supposed to get down to 30 here tonight and I'd thought I might dig up the taters, but if things hold true to recent form, it will not freeze here on my place and the plants could still have some growing time. Especially since it's going to warm up yet again after this cold air mass moves on. If it does freeze, it won't freeze the soil in the big containers so if the plants are spinach by tomorrow AM, I can then just dig up whatever potatoes I may have grown so far. I'll cure them under a sheet in the greenhouse.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Hey Martinhouse! We had a very, very light and spotty frost this morning, nothing major. Tonight we're supposed to be 36, which generally means we'll be a few degrees cooler than the forecast. We covered our outside faucets just in case.

I really hate winter!

We pretty much skipped the garden this year, and need to spend time getting our raised beds ready. I did get more seeds a month or so ago, just to have some fresh ones on hand. We'll need to get more soil for the potato tubs, but at least we have plenty of tubs ready to go. And, I'm setting aside some store bought potatoes for planting.

I toss around the idea of getting some Midget White Turkey poults, but that would take a fair amount of housing work to get ready...still, I think about it.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Well, I was right, unfortunately. We were forecasted to be 36 this morning, but our local temp is 32. I don't think this means good things for the winter. Fortunately, the house is sitting at 70 even though we haven't switched over yet to heat.

It's a chilly 70, though, even with me sitting in sweats over my jammies. Really, really hate winter.
 

TxGal

Day by day
I'm posting two podcasts from Adapt 2030 (a two-parter). While not pertaining to weather per se, they address food issues which are historically affected by the GSM.

When Prices Get High and People Get Angry (Bob Kudla 1/2) - YouTube

When Prices Get High and People Get Angry (Bob Kudla 1/2)
13,299 views
Nov 11, 2021

View: https://youtu.be/A-WhGaWCt0s
Run time is 28:24

Synopsis provided:

Bob Kudla from Tradelikeagenius.com and David DuByne of ADAPT 2030 discuss how energy shortages are rocking the planet with gas, coal and electricity shortfalls cascading to greenhouse and mining shutdowns as supply chain gridlock and massive inflation lead to food insecurity and eventual rationing beginning now.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Here's part 2:

Peak Centralization & Shortening of Supply Chains (Bob Kudla 2/2) - YouTube

Peak Centralization & Shortening of Supply Chains (Bob Kudla 2/2)
11,399 views
Nov 12, 2021

View: https://youtu.be/sPQSVnICFoc
Run time is 20:11

Synopsis provided:

Bob Kudla from Tradelikeagenius.com and David DuByne of ADAPT 2030 discuss how energy shortages are rocking the planet with gas, coal and electricity shortfalls cascading to greenhouse and mining shutdowns as supply chain gridlock and massive inflation lead to food insecurity and eventual rationing beginning now.
 

Martinhouse

Deceased
Well, I'll be digging potatoes this afternoon. My forecast for overnight was 31 and since I've been staying a little warmer than the predicted overnight lows lately, I thought I'd take a chance that this would happen again last night. Temp right at my back door is 34, but I went out and checked a couple potato plants in different places and they are practically rock hard. If they look like cooked spinach this afternoon when it's warmed up outside, I'll go ahead and dig them all up. Computer is saying it's 29 outside this morning. Too bad, as the rest of the ten-day forecast is showing above freezing and I'd really like to have let those plants mature another ten days.

I don't even know if there are any potatoes made under those plants...guess I'll find out in a few hours.

I'm still not using my space heater. It's been chilly in the house, but when I'm busy I stay warm and when I'm just sitting, reading, knitting, or on the computer, I can stay bundled up, plus I keep a big pot (16 qt.?) of water heated and sitting on the floor right by me. When it cools enough to not melt the soles of my shoes, I use it like a footstool. Nice and warm! I use a round cooling rack with an old, thick folded-up bath towel under the pot to protect the floor from the heat.

I HATE WINTER!!!!!
 

Martinhouse

Deceased
Added.......I meant to say thanks, TxGal, for posting the videos. I like DuByne's talks with Bob Kudla. I always think I don't want to hear all that financial stuff, and always ended up listening to lots of other interesting things. And when there aren't a bunch of charts and pictures as part of the presentation, I can listen and do things like knitting, folding shopping bags, etc., so I don't feel I'm wasting time.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Added.......I meant to say thanks, TxGal, for posting the videos. I like DuByne's talks with Bob Kudla. I always think I don't want to hear all that financial stuff, and always ended up listening to lots of other interesting things. And when there aren't a bunch of charts and pictures as part of the presentation, I can listen and do things like knitting, folding shopping bags, etc., so I don't feel I'm wasting time.
You're welcome! So much is going on now, so much to do, I think branching out and still doing things you find interesting is a very good thing.

And even though the weather folks all thought we'd be warmer, here we sit this morning at 35. The house is at a chilly 68, and I'm in my sweats. I really hate winter!
 

TxGal

Day by day
Here's a new one from Adapt 2030:

Teetering on Disaster - YouTube

Teetering on Disaster
15,786 views
Nov 13, 2021

View: https://youtu.be/1s-FdJi_4Fc
Run time is 11:03

Synopsis provided:

Tripling inflation rates, logistics rates unaffordable or unavailable, vegetable & grain losses and 100% of economists say brace for the most inflation in the last 70 years at the minimum. This is as early cold fronts will damage fruits and vegetables across the southern US.
 

Faroe

Un-spun
You're welcome! So much is going on now, so much to do, I think branching out and still doing things you find interesting is a very good thing.

And even though the weather folks all thought we'd be warmer, here we sit this morning at 35. The house is at a chilly 68, and I'm in my sweats. I really hate winter!
I like fall. Winter...sometimes. Helps to live in NM, not the Mid-west. Back in IA, the onset of winter felt like a jail sentence.

Because of the adobe walls, our house tends to feel as cold as a tomb when the seasons change. It's usually warmer outside. We've been in hats and puffy nylon jacks as indoor day-wear for weeks, already.
 

Martinhouse

Deceased
It's 56 in my kitchen this morning and probably colder in the rest of the house. I really do need to start using the space heater pretty soon! Wunderground site says it's 35 outside and my own thermometers are reading 38 outside my back door. I've sure not been sitting out there and talking to the cats when I bring out their breakfast these last couple of frosty mornings!

I'm getting worse as far as being cold all the time. This last summer I stopped wearing even my light sweatshirts for only about three weeks when I needed just a T-shirt from midday until evening, I stopped wearing the sweater-knit long johns for only a few weeks in July and August. Now I'm back to the heavy two layers of clothing, plus shawl and lap cover when sitting, and will soon need a layer of light sweat pants between the long johns and the outer sweatpants. And it's already looking like my next knitting project might be some ankle warmers that sort of lop over the top of my feet. Oh, and I'm already wearing the knit hats that match my sweaters. And once I start heating the kitchen better, I'll probably have to start changing into the next day's clothing here where it's the least frigid at the end of each day, and using them as pajamas. If I don't find fingerless gloves at Dollar General when they open back up this week, I'll have to "un-knit" the ends of the fingers of some little stretchy gloves I bought a few weeks ago. My hands are like ice nearly all the time now and I can't just sit around holding my mug of tea all day long!

I am DREADING the next five months, if not, with this GSM, the next six or seven!

I HATE WINTER!!!!!
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
I like fall. Winter...sometimes. Helps to live in NM, not the Mid-west. Back in IA, the onset of winter felt like a jail sentence.

Because of the adobe walls, our house tends to feel as cold as a tomb when the seasons change. It's usually warmer outside. We've been in hats and puffy nylon jacks as indoor day-wear for weeks, already.
Fall is welcome after a hot and humid summer
 

TxGal

Day by day
From Oppenheimer:

Melting Glaciers Worldwide Must Surely Prove “Global Warming Is True” - The Exact Opposite Is Truth - YouTube

Melting Glaciers Worldwide Must Surely Prove “Global Warming Is True” - The Exact Opposite Is Truth
3,712 views
Premiered 9 hours ago

View: https://youtu.be/_219smrip0I
Run time is 16:52

Synopsis provided:

“Melting Glaciers” must surely prove “global warming is true” https://bit.ly/30pK3fy
Retreating Glacier In Patagonia Uncovers 400 Year Old Forest https://bit.ly/3cedXpu
Little Ice Age advance & retreat of Glacier Jorge Montt, Chilean Patagonia https://bit.ly/3wJJs4t
Last 4000 years Climatology and Empire https://bit.ly/3HiwAa5
11,000 years of paleoclimatology graph https://bit.ly/3neAsks
Ancient trees emerge from frozen forest 'tomb' https://bit.ly/3nfp6g7
Hemplucid Black Friday Special With Calendar Download https://bit.ly/2YOO6BC
 

TxGal

Day by day
Punishing Cold Breaks 167-Year-Old Records In Australia, + An Early Arctic Freeze Traps 20+ Ships In Unusually Thick Sea Ice - Electroverse

stuck-ships-e1636975525822.jpg

Extreme Weather GSM

PUNISHING COLD BREAKS 167-YEAR-OLD RECORDS IN AUSTRALIA, + AN EARLY ARCTIC FREEZE TRAPS 20+ SHIPS IN UNUSUALLY THICK SEA ICE
NOVEMBER 15, 2021 CAP ALLON

Thank you for all the kind messages re my road trip back to the UK from Portugal.

Regarding the actual journey: I don’t want to talk about it. Ha. France has lost the plot: 1) On stopping for food we were told we weren’t allowed to eat unless we were fully vaccinated–so we went hungry, and 2) at the ferry port, my answer of ‘not declared’ when asked by the cheese-eating surrender monkeys on passport control if I was vaccinated –a valid option on the UK’s ‘entry/locator form’– got us parked up in the ‘naughty corner’ where we were left to ponder why we hadn’t just given in and accepted an experimental drug for a virus that statistically won’t impact us.

We were finally allowed onto the ferry after showing negative PCR tests (which is something I attempted to do off the bat), but not before being told that France would prefer it if we didn’t return anytime soon–I think because the UK is on their ‘amber list’ (a political move). And this is fine by me. We’ll catch the ferry direct to Spain on the return leg. Because although sailing the Bay of Biscay is a choppy, vomit-inducing nightmare, it’s preferable than having to deal with the insanity going on in France right now.

PUNISHING COLD BREAKS 167-YEAR-OLD RECORDS ACROSS AUSTRALIA

The seasons have gone “topsy-turvy” down under as a blistering Polar front sweeps the vast majority of Australia, just two weeks out from summer.

Much of the continent is suffering punishing temperate departures of 8-18C below the seasonal norm:


GFS 2m Temperature Departures (C) for Nov 14 [tropicaltidbits.com].

The exceptional chill is taking down long-standing records across the country.

The Tasmanian capital of Hobart, for example, just shivered through its chilliest November low in 60 years. The mercury in the city sank to 2.9C (37.2F) at dawn on Monday — the coldest November night since 1953 (solar minimum of cycle 18). And Kunanyi/Mt Wellington, which overlooks Hobart, bottomed out at -5.8C at 4.30am — the third coldest November temperature ever recorded in Tasmania.

Melbourne recently logged its coldest November day since 2007 (solar minimum of cycle 24), with that reading (of 14C/57.2F) surpassed on Monday when a high of just 13.5C/56.3F was observed.

Most impressively though, some locales have just endured a late-season cold spell not seen for more than 160 years.

As reported by weatherzone.com.au, Melbourne’s maximum temperatures during the last four days have held well-below the long-term November average of 22C (71.6C), reaching 14C/57.2F on Friday, 14.6C/58.3F on Saturday, 15.3C/59.4F on Sunday, and, as mentioned above, 13.5C/56.3F on Monday. This is the first time in 167 years of records that Melbourne has had four days below 15.5C (59.9F) this late in spring.

While further north, Canberra’s last three days have held around 10C below the seasonal average — the first time in 99 years of record-keeping that Australia’s capital city has suffered three days at or below 14C/57.2F this late in spring.

View: https://twitter.com/weatherzone/status/1460147807357050882

“The winter chill is here … two weeks out from summer,” said Sky News Weather meteorologist Alison Osborne, who dubbed the event “snowvember”. The late-season snow has indeed been exceptional, with heavy flurries accumulating not only on Tasmania’s peaks but down at sea level, too.

And it’s not done yet, added Osborne: “The cold front itself is moving out to sea; however, cool south-westerly winds in its wake will maintain showers, snow, and also make for another chilly day for many elsewhere around the country.”

View: https://twitter.com/Bergeonline/status/1459805053284282373

Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Miriam Bradbury said the Antarctic front would continue to impact the state of Victoria on Monday and Tuesday “because that very cold air mass that’s associated with the front is still sort of streaming across the state”.

Victoria’s snow level dropped down to below 1000m (3280ft) early on Monday.

“It has been abnormally cold,” admitted the BOM’s Bradbury. “We will continue to see pretty wintry conditions. Maximum temperatures today (Monday) aren’t expected to be very high, generally 8-12C below the November average.”

AN EARLY ARCTIC FREEZE TRAPS 20+ SHIPS IN UNUSUALLY THICK SEA ICE

More than 20 vessels are either stuck or struggling to make it through increasingly thick sea-ice on the Northern Sea Route.

In recent years, ships traversing Russia’s northern coast have had a relatively easy time of it in late-Oct/early-Nov — but trends change, and this year, as our planet continues its descent into its next bout of global cooling, the ice is re-freezing early and quickly.

Large parts of the remote Arctic waters were covered in thick sea-ice by late October, reports thebarentsobserver.com: “and the white sheet is quickly getting thicker and harder to navigate,” continues the article.

Ice maps show that major parts of the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea are already covered by ice more than 6 inches thick. While over the East Siberian Sea, there are vast areas with 28 inches thick one-year ice, as well as 80 inches thick multi-year ice.


Sea-ice on the Northern Sea Route, Oct 31 – Nov 2 [aari.ru]

Among the ships located on the eastern part of the route are two oil tankers and a significant number of bulk carriers, including three ships bringing iron ore from the Canadian Milne Island to China, and two carrying iron ore from Murmansk.

Several other ships have made course changes in order to attempt to circumvent areas with the fastest advancing ice.

Dutch heavy lift vessel Poolgracht, for example, is transporting cargo for Novatek’s natural gas project ‘Arctic LNG 2’ and had to wait for an icebreaker near the Vilkitsky Strait. The vessel is now sailing westwards in a convoy escorted by nuclear icebreaker Taymyr. In that same convoy are the UHL Flash and UHL Faith.


Stuck ship, November 13 [energyglobalnews.com].

For a full break down of the ships in trouble –including two sailing from China that have spent the past two weeks “zig-zagging’ their way through the unusually thick sea ice– check out the thebarentsobserver.com article in full.

A critical situation might be in the making on the Northern Sea Route | The  Independent Barents Observer
[thebarentsobserver.com]

Furthermore, the majority of the vessels don’t have permission to sail in thick sea ice without icebreaker assistance, and they will end up violating Russian shipping regulations if they can’t leave the region soon. At least one ship has already exceeded its time limit on the route — the Andrei Pervozvanny, an oil tanker, only had permission to sail in the area until Nov 9.

The adverse conditions are also concerning for Russian authorities who are promoting the Northern Sea Route as a future alternative to the Suez Canal. This, for obvious reasons, is a non-starter.

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with the great conjunction, historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among other forcings).

Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.

Furthermore, we can’t ignore the slew of new scientific papers stating the immense impact The Beaufort Gyre could have on the Gulf Stream, and therefore the climate overall.





Prepare accordinglylearn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.
 

Faroe

Un-spun
It's 56 in my kitchen this morning and probably colder in the rest of the house. I really do need to start using the space heater pretty soon! Wunderground site says it's 35 outside and my own thermometers are reading 38 outside my back door. I've sure not been sitting out there and talking to the cats when I bring out their breakfast these last couple of frosty mornings!

I'm getting worse as far as being cold all the time. This last summer I stopped wearing even my light sweatshirts for only about three weeks when I needed just a T-shirt from midday until evening, I stopped wearing the sweater-knit long johns for only a few weeks in July and August. Now I'm back to the heavy two layers of clothing, plus shawl and lap cover when sitting, and will soon need a layer of light sweat pants between the long johns and the outer sweatpants. And it's already looking like my next knitting project might be some ankle warmers that sort of lop over the top of my feet. Oh, and I'm already wearing the knit hats that match my sweaters. And once I start heating the kitchen better, I'll probably have to start changing into the next day's clothing here where it's the least frigid at the end of each day, and using them as pajamas. If I don't find fingerless gloves at Dollar General when they open back up this week, I'll have to "un-knit" the ends of the fingers of some little stretchy gloves I bought a few weeks ago. My hands are like ice nearly all the time now and I can't just sit around holding my mug of tea all day long!

I am DREADING the next five months, if not, with this GSM, the next six or seven!

I HATE WINTER!!!!!
If you can find those inexpensive utility gloves, cotton knit, and usually in brown, sometimes with grip dots - you can cut the fingertips off them, and they don't unravel. I've been wearing leg-warmers too. I cut the lower legs off a pair of knit leggings that I didn't like the fit of. Worn upside-down, the ankle cuff grips my calf just below the knee, and stays up effortlessly. Toasty! Before elastic was manufactured, the stretchy garter-stitch in hand knitting (short rows, not the long direction) was used to hold up hose. You could try that too.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Hailstones as big as cricket balls pound Lydenburg, South Africa -- Earth Changes -- Sott.net

Hailstones as big as cricket balls pound Lydenburg, South Africa

Lowvelder
Sun, 14 Nov 2021 13:11 UTC

hail

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) issued a warning for severe thunderstorms with strong, damaging winds and hail in places along the escarpment and Lowveld areas of Mpumalanga and Limpopo regarding this afternoon and early evening.

A massive hailstorm across Lydenburg, including the Badfontein Road, Dullstroom Road (R36) and the Burgersfort Road (R37), resulted in severe property and vehicle damage early this afternoon (Sunday November 14).

Home windows and skylights were shattered.

View: https://youtu.be/9verHeycLSY

Run time is 2:56

These are just a few photos that have been shared on emergency WhatsApp groups and Facebook pages - Lydenburg What's Happening and Lydenburg Staan Saam.

hail
© Linelle Venter-Watermeyer, Lydenburg

hail
© Willie Everson

hail
© Willie Everson

hail
© Hester van Zijl

hail
© Lorinda Kapp

hail
© Dieter Joubert
 

TxGal

Day by day
European Energy Prices Hit Fresh Records As "Snow-Laden Polar Plunge" Looms-Rolling Power Outages Expected This Winter - Electroverse

Blackout-5-1-e1637058688672.jpg

Articles Extreme Weather GSM

EUROPEAN ENERGY PRICES HIT FRESH RECORDS AS “SNOW-LADEN POLAR PLUNGE” LOOMS–ROLLING POWER OUTAGES EXPECTED THIS WINTER
NOVEMBER 16, 2021 CAP ALLON

EUROPEAN ENERGY PRICES HIT FRESH RECORDS AS “POLAR PLUNGE” LOOMS

Thanks to our bumbling, echo chamber-dwelling betters at COP26, EU carbon prices hit a record Eur66/mt on November 15–the first trading day after the UN Climate Change Conference. Energy prices also witnessed a sharp uptick, driven by extreme cold weather forecasts.

The price of EU carbon dioxide allowances (EUAs) under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) closed at Eur65.93/mt — that’s a rise of 4 percent. While European gas prices ended the day above Eur80/mt — an increase of 7 percent.

As reported by spglobal.com, temperatures across much of Europe are forecast to plunge well-below seasonal average in the final week of November as a powerful Arctic front descends deep into the continent.

The latest GFS run (shown below) confirms this, and sees the mercury tumbling as much as 10C below the November norm.


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Nov 25 [tropicaltidbits.com].

Lows of -10C (14F) are set to hit the UK before the month’s end as a “snow-laden polar plunge” kick-starts what threatens to be “the worst winter since the Big Freeze of 2010,” reports the express.co.uk quoting James Madden, a forecaster for Exacta Weather.

“Waning solar activity means chances are high for a little ice age winter this year with notable periods of cold and snow,” explains Madden. “We have high confidence for the most cold and wintry conditions since Dec 2010 developing towards the end of the year. This could bring excessive cold temperatures and periods of widespread snow.”

This forecast is supported by Centrica, Britain’s top energy supplier, who has warned its 9 million customers to prepare for an icy blast that could last as long as six weeks, reports oilprice.com.


GFS Total Snowfall (cm) Nov 22 – Dec 2 [tropicaltidbits.com].

This doesn’t bode well for UK energy supplies which have already been depleted this year due to 1) last winter’s historic and long-lasting chill, and 2) failing renewables. As reported by Bloomberg, power prices in the UK soared to GBP2000 (the second highest level on record) on Monday as low wind levels exposed the market to a supply crunch.

The story is the same across much of Europe, too, as well as in transcontinental Russia. According to a note from EnergyScan: “The power spot prices soared near 230€/MWh in NW Europe, lifted by forecasts of higher demand and weak wind and solar generation.”

ROLLING POWER OUTAGES EXPECTED THIS WINTER

Europe risks rolling power outages if there is a prolonged period of cold weather this winter — this is according to the chief executive of Trafigura, one of the world’s biggest commodity traders.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Jeremy Weir said there was still insufficient natural gas across the continent despite the promise of increased flows from Russia: “We haven’t got enough gas at the moment quite frankly. We’re not storing for the winter period. So hence there is a real concern that … if we have a cold winter that we could have rolling blackouts in Europe.”

Russia had ordered their state gas giant Gazprom to begin filling the storage facilities it controls in Germany and Austria, boosting hopes that exports to Europe would rise. However, there has been only limited increases in supply from Russia over the past week and on Monday Gazprom booked lower pipeline capacity for December, continues the FT article.

Some industries have already been forced to cut production as a result of shortages/record prices, and markets are expected to remain tight until at least the spring of 2022.

Europe is heavily reliant on gas after abandoning coal in a bid to save the unicorns from the boogeyman–or some such nonsense, but the upshot of such an extreme policy is that governments are now cutting the gas supply to non-essential industries in an attempt to maintain the electricity grid. However, Weir isn’t convinced that these measures will be enough to stave off blackouts.



The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with the great conjunction, historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among other forcings).

Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.

Furthermore, we can’t ignore the slew of new scientific papers stating the immense impact The Beaufort Gyre could have on the Gulf Stream, and therefore the climate overall.





Prepare accordinglylearn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.
 

Jubilee on Earth

Veteran Member
I'm posting two podcasts from Adapt 2030 (a two-parter). While not pertaining to weather per se, they address food issues which are historically affected by the GSM.

When Prices Get High and People Get Angry (Bob Kudla 1/2) - YouTube

When Prices Get High and People Get Angry (Bob Kudla 1/2)
13,299 views
Nov 11, 2021

View: https://youtu.be/A-WhGaWCt0s
Run time is 28:24

Synopsis provided:

Bob Kudla from Tradelikeagenius.com and David DuByne of ADAPT 2030 discuss how energy shortages are rocking the planet with gas, coal and electricity shortfalls cascading to greenhouse and mining shutdowns as supply chain gridlock and massive inflation lead to food insecurity and eventual rationing beginning now.
Thanks, TxGal—that was an excellent interview. As a coffee drinker, I took particular note of Bob talking about how the fertilizer shortages will impact coffee the most. As a reminder, instant coffee is actually freeze dried coffee and will last forever.

I felt so bad for David who mentioned losing his entire garden to frost because the forecasters were 9 degrees off in their prediction of low temperatures. That had to hurt. A great reminder not to depend on the forecasts when your garden is at risk.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Thanks, TxGal—that was an excellent interview. As a coffee drinker, I took particular note of Bob talking about how the fertilizer shortages will impact coffee the most. As a reminder, instant coffee is actually freeze dried coffee and will last forever.

I felt so bad for David who mentioned losing his entire garden to frost because the forecasters were 9 degrees off in their prediction of low temperatures. That had to hurt. A great reminder not to depend on the forecasts when your garden is at risk.

You're welcome. There isn't a whole lot of good news out there in the GSM world of late.

We've pretty much learned our low temps are always lower than the forecast, I think Martinhouse has experienced that, too. It sure makes gardening that much harder.
 

Martinhouse

Deceased
I'm seeing the overnight lows here are often somewhat lower than predicted, but at the same time I've had temps a little higher than predicted on the east side of my house and all around the back yard, as I've let my place return to almost all trees and underbrush. Not pretty but I like not being visible from the road and I let it get that way partly because I became more amd more unable to maintain it as I used to, plus it is now plenty of future firewood.

The last couple of days, it's been looking like maybe my spell of warmer-than-the area-around-me may be over Brrrr!

I HATE WINTER!
 

Jubilee on Earth

Veteran Member
I don’t have any sources, but this morning I read a whole Reddit thread about how there was massive flooding in British Columbia these last few days and there are more than 50,000 people without power. Roads are washed out, and Vancouver is basically cut off from access to mainland Canada. I’ve got to run out and do some errands, but if anyone comes across news sources, please post them. I’d appreciate reading more than anecdotal stories.
 

summerthyme

Administrator
_______________
I don’t have any sources, but this morning I read a whole Reddit thread about how there was massive flooding in British Columbia these last few days and there are more than 50,000 people without power. Roads are washed out, and Vancouver is basically cut off from access to mainland Canada. I’ve got to run out and do some errands, but if anyone comes across news sources, please post them. I’d appreciate reading more than anecdotal stories.
There's a thread on Main on the story...

Summerthyme
 
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