Solar Grand Solar Minimum part deux

[TxGal]

Sierra Mountains Log Up To 6 Feet Of October Snow, Record Lows Sweep Scandinavia, + "Remarkable" Cold Spell Hits Hong Kong - Electroverse

Extreme Weather GSM

SIERRA MOUNTAINS LOG UP TO 6 FEET OF OCTOBER SNOW, RECORD LOWS SWEEP SCANDINAVIA, + “REMARKABLE” COLD SPELL HITS HONG KONG
OCTOBER 26, 2021 CAP ALLON

SIERRA MOUNTAINS LOG UP TO 6 FEET OF OCTOBER SNOW

Heavy snow has been pounding the higher elevations of the Western U.S. in recent days, with record-challenging accumulations hitting some peaks and summits.

Early measurements on Monday saw totals nearing the 2 feet mark as a Level 5 out of 5 atmospheric river met with a descending Arctic air mass:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1452687746577756160

View: https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento/status/1452687746577756160

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1452657396241735680

View: https://twitter.com/UCB_CSSL/status/1452657396241735680
Run time is 0:26

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1452632383438479360

View: https://twitter.com/KCRATeSelle/status/1452632383438479360
Run time is 0:26

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1452659538910322693

View: https://twitter.com/TahoeWeather/status/1452659538910322693

As the day progressed so did the snowfall totals.

So far, up to 6 feet of global warming goodness has been registered in some parts–at elevations above 8,000 ft.

The latest GFS model (shown below) reveals that this heavy, early-season snow is set to persist through Tuesday and Wednesday, with another round of bone-chilling lows and record-breaking snows clipping large swathes of the North American continent next week:


GFS Total Snowfall (inches) Oct 26 – Nov 11 [tropicaltidbits.com].

RECORD COLD SWEEPS SCANDINAVIA

Scandinavia’s much anticipated Arctic blast peaked on Sunday and it didn’t disappoint, delivering record low temperatures and heavy snowfall.

As reported by mkweather.com, a total of 9 meteorological stations across Sweden and Finland reported morning minimums in the -20 to -25C (-4 to -13F) rang. A low of -24.6C (-12.3F) was observed in Nattavaara — Scandinavia’s coldest October temperatures for 15 years (since 2006).

Regional record October lows were also registered: Latnivaara, Sweden, for example, suffered -23.5C (-10.3F); Nikkaluokta, also Sweden, logged -23C (-9.4F); while Salla, Finland observed -21.5C (-6.7F).

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1452151886275137538

View: https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1452151886275137538

The -24C originally registered in Nattavaara (since confirmed as -24.6C).

The mkweather.com article links Scandinavia’s “extreme early cold blast” to 1) a persistent NAO phase, and 2) an “anomalously cold Arctic” which has led to impressive ice growth (only 3 years out of the last 15 have seen a higher Arctic sea ice extent).

The mk article also recalls the recent record October low registered on the Greenland Plateau where an automatic meteorological station measured an “excessively low” -50.8C (-59.4F) last week — a record reading for mid-October.

Accompanying Scandinavia’s big freeze, northern parts of Sweden, Norway and Finland have all reported anomalous dumps of snow totaling as much as half a meter (1.64 feet) — “such high snow cover hasn’t been measured here in October in decades”.

After a brief reprieve, “anomalously cold winter conditions should return already around late November and in December and early January,” concludes the mk article, “when, according to many sources, extreme Arctic and Siberian blasts in Europe are possible.”

“REMARKABLE” COLD SPELL HITS HONG KONG

After a toasty start to October, Hong Kong is now suffering what is being described as a “remarkable” cold spell.

On Friday, October 22 the mercury at the Hong Kong International Airport dropped to 16.8C — the weather stations second lowest October temperature in recorded history (beaten only by a reading in 1997–solar minimum of cycle 23).
Nearby Tai Moh Shan Peak plunged to 9.9C — HK’s earliest reading below 10C also since 1997.


[HKO]

Today’s article was a quick one. I have a meeting scheduled at my local town hall here in central Portugal. I’m trying to obtain planning permission for a small house. I don’t speak much Portuguese, they don’t speak much English — this should be fun...

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with the great conjunction, historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among other forcings).

Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.

Furthermore, we can’t ignore the slew of new scientific papers stating the immense impact The Beaufort Gyre could have on the Gulf Stream, and therefore the climate overall.

Prepare accordingly— learn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.

 

[Jubilee on Earth]

The Real BPEarthWatch shared a video this evening about some serious sunspot activity and potential flares coming around earth-facing that will likely spark new earthquakes and volcanic activity.

Run Time 10:36

 

[TxGal]

New podcase from Adapt 2030

Changing Electrical Fields Across the Solar System Affecting You - YouTube

Changing Electrical Fields Across the Solar System Affecting You
15,641 views
Oct 26, 2021

View: https://youtu.be/hEhVH2ht0Xs
Run time is 29:18

Synopsis provided:

On this episode of Alfacast with Mike Winner and Dr. Barre Lando we spoke with Grand Solar Minimum expert David DuByne from the Adapt2030 channel! It was a powerful talk that covered everything from self sufficiency and cold weather growing techniques to the nature of our reality and how this knowledge will empower us to thrive during this cycle change. We hope you leave feeling empowered and excited for the times come!!

 

[ktrapper]

We are finally starting to see a dusting here at our AO in MT this morning. And it’s just that, a dusting. Winter it’s taking its on sweet time about getting here this year. We have had no snow to speak of really. But like last year it may last on into June. We got 6-7 inches on June 14th this year.

I just bought the 3/4 PT plywood for my green house deck. I waited and waited for prices to come down. The plywood topped out at $85. Finally came back down to $45 and before I could buy it went up to $53. At least I have it now. I will buy saw mill lumber from someone we know for the joists.
I have figured out a green house is a necessity up this high if you want a decent growing season. Same as Alaska where lived so nothing new.

 

[TxGal]

Record Cold Headed For Delhi, -10C Freeze To Batter Britain, Californian Slopes Open Early, + New York Forecast Snow Next Week - Electroverse

Extreme Weather GSM
RECORD COLD HEADED FOR DELHI, -10C FREEZE TO BATTER BRITAIN, CALIFORNIAN SLOPES OPEN EARLY, + NEW YORK FORECAST SNOW NEXT WEEK
OCTOBER 27, 2021 CAP ALLON

RECORD COLD HEADED FOR DELHI

Anomalously cold conditions have continued across Kashmir Valley this week, with the famous resorts of Pahalgam and Gulmarg registering freezing lows, officials said Wednesday.

Pahalgam, for example, logged lows of -1.1C (30F) and -1.7C (28.9F) over the past two nights — rare feats for the month October.

Heavy, early-season snow has also blanketed northern Indian in recent weeks, a setup that is now driving temperatures in the south of the country well-below the climatological norm for the time of year as streams of cold air traverse the plains of Punjab, Haryana and Delhi.

As reported by skymetweather.com, “minimum temperatures have already dropped below the normal over Dalhousie, Dharamshala, Shimla and Manali by 3 to 4C (37.4 to 39.2F). These are following suit over the plains of Punjab, Haryana, North Rajasthan and Delhi.”

The nation’s capital recorded 16C (60.8F) on October 21 — early in the season for such a low reading.

And with the blanket of snow persisting over the northern hills, further chills are forecast to sweep Delhi over the weekend with the mercury forecast to dip below 13C. “It may just be a repeat of last year,” continues the skymetweather.com, when the minimum temperature dropped to a record-breaking 12.5C (54.5F) on Oct 29, which helped make October 2020 the city’s coldest October since 1962 with a mean minimum of just 17.2C (63F).

Below are the GFS temperature anomalies for Thursday morning, October 28:


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Oct 28 [tropicaltidbits.com].

-10C FREEZE TO BATTER BRITAIN

Remember, remember the fifth of November Gunpowder, treason–and bloody cold weather.

A powerful Arctic air mass is set to descend into the UK (and Northern/Western Europe) on Friday, November 5.

Temperatures are set to fall some 8C below the season average, with lows of -6C to -10C possible in the Scottish Highlands.


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Nov 5 [tropicaltidbits.com].

Heavy snow will accompany the cold, most notably in Scotland, however, flakes could also fall as far south as northern England:


GFS Total Snowfall (cm) Oct 27 – Nov 12 [tropicaltidbits.com].

Looking further ahead, the UK Met Office is forecasting brutally cold nights throughout the second half of November.

A recent BBC Weather forecast for Nov 8-Nov 21 reads: “As we head into the second half of November, we think the blocking high will be in place and linger just to the west of us. This means north westerly winds bring in colder North Atlantic air from Greenland, so temperatures should tend to be below average.”

Blocking highs are a phenomenon long-expected to increase during times of low solar activity.

Such a setup led to ‘The Best From The East’ in 2018–the start of the solar minimum of cycle 24.

CALIFORNIAN SLOPES OPEN EARLY

A monster snowstorm hitting North America’s West Coast has dumped as much as 105 cm (42 inches) of global warming goodness on Californian ski slopes in just 36 hours — some are now opening their slopes a full month ahead of schedule.

Mammoth Mountain logged an impressive 3 feet (90 cm) and has since announced that it will open two weeks earlier than originally intended, this coming Friday, in time for the Halloween weekend.

Mt Rose posted 42 inches (105 cm) during the recent storm:

http://instagr.am/p/CVdsPn0Pk8A/ View: https://www.instagram.com/p/CVdsPn0Pk8A/?utm_source=ig_embed&ig_rid=fd21ad1b-518f-4e37-8d01-d3665edfe97c

While nearby Palisades Tahoe (formerly Squaw Valley) logged at least three feet (90cm):


Palisades Tahoe received at least three feet (90cm) of snow in just 36 hours.

As is the case with Mammoth, both Mt Rose and Palisades are cashing-in on the early-season powder with both opening their lifts far earlier than expected.

Opening before Halloween weekend marks “one of the earliest openings in the resort’s history,” Mt Rose resort said in an announcement, and a full month ahead of the average, according to sfchronicle.com.


Mt Rose is opening its slopes a month earlier than normal.

Furthermore, the almost 4 feet observed on nearby Donner Summit makes it the region’s second snowiest October in recorded history, according to the UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab.

October 2021’s snow totals currently stand at 44.7 inches, which is just 1.9 inches shy of the all-time record.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1453019169373310977

View: https://twitter.com/UCB_CSSL/status/1453019169373310977

Eyeing the latest forecasts, that all-time record (from 2004) looks set to fall.


GFS Total Snowfall (inches) Oct 27 – Nov 12 [tropicaltidbits.com].

In the backcountry, this much early snow is guaranteed to induce a feverish frenzy among the most dedicated skiers and snowboarders for powder turns beyond the boundaries of the ski resort, reports sfgate.com.

However, the Sierra Avalanche Center, which issues daily forecasts about avalanche conditions in the Tahoe Basin, is not fully operational until mid-November –another indication of just how early this season’s first substantial accumulations have been– so backcountry skiers should exercise even more cautious decision-making if they venture into avalanche terrain.

NEW YORK FORECAST SNOW NEXT WEEK

Although admittedly within the unreliable time frame, Western New York is currently forecast snow next week.

“All the early forecasts and even the Farmer’s Almanac called for snow the first week of November across Western New York,” reports wyrk.com. “It looks like the long-range forecasts are going to validate all those early forecasts.”

WIVB’s Mike Cejka tweeted that more than 2 inches of snow could accumulate in parts of the region during the first week of November, adding that “there are a lot of things going on globally that point to an early onset of winter”:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1452661578483044368

View: https://twitter.com/mikecejka4/status/1452661578483044368

As hinted at above, these longer-range predictions should be taken with a pinch of salt; but saying that, Northern Hemisphere snow mass is growing at an above-average-rate this season, and with low solar output continuing to create a weak and wavy meridional jet stream flow, all bets are off…

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with the great conjunction, historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among other forcings).

Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.

Furthermore, we can’t ignore the slew of new scientific papers stating the immense impact The Beaufort Gyre could have on the Gulf Stream, and therefore the climate overall.

Prepare accordingly— learn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.

 

[TxGal]

Two good ones from Adapt 2030; the first:

A Glimpse at Winter 2021-2022 Northern Hemisphere - YouTube

A Glimpse at Winter 2021-2022 Northern Hemisphere
18,091 views
Premiered 20 hours ago

View: https://youtu.be/Y2axxnl9uwk
Run time is 9:03

Synopsis provided:

What we are seeing so far with record rains and snowfalls from N. America to Asia and record cold piercing Europe. Lets look at the last 25 years of Polar Vorticies and see if we find a pattern.

 

[TxGal]

The second from Adapt 2030 (note part 2 of 5, I missed part 1 a day or so ago):

Undiscussed Volcanic Ash Risks to the Global Food Supply (AlfaVedic 2/5) - YouTube

Undiscussed Volcanic Ash Risks to the Global Food Supply (AlfaVedic 2/5)
6,668 views
Oct 27, 2021

View: https://youtu.be/ay2jbd6xKFU
Run time is 30:17

Synopsis provided:

On this episode of Alfacast with Mike Winner and Dr. Barre Lando we spoke with Grand Solar Minimum expert David DuByne from the Adapt2030 channel! It was a powerful talk that covered everything from self sufficiency and cold weather growing techniques to the nature of our reality and how this knowledge will empower us to thrive during this cycle change. We hope you leave feeling empowered and excited for the times come!!

 

[northern watch]

 

[flame]

brrrr...

 

[TxGal]

From the Oppenheimer Ranch Project:

X-Flare Generated CME Headed Toward Earth - Record Snowfall US - Record Hail Continues In Australia - YouTube

X-Flare Generated CME Headed Toward Earth - Record Snowfall US - Record Hail Continues In Australia
5,617 views
Premiered 10 hours ago

View: https://youtu.be/wO1e4-dHWqc
Run time is 19:20

Synopsis provided:

Sun fires off major solar flare from Earth-facing sunspot https://bit.ly/3bk8zAN
A Strong (G3) Geomagnetic Storm watch has officially been added for this weekend https://www.solarham.net/
GOESW X-Ray Flux https://dpa-images.s3.amazonaws.com/g...
Geomagnetic Storms and Human Health https://bit.ly/38DKHat
'Absolute nightmare' after 40-plus inches of snowfall https://yhoo.it/3blCjNN
Epic snowfall prompts Palisades Tahoe ski resorts to open this Friday https://bit.ly/2Zsx3VU
SNOWFALL ANALYSIS FROM THE LAST 72 HOURS https://www.weather.gov/crh/snowfall
Northern Hemisphere Snowmass http://bit.ly/2lAFomU
Pearl River County tornado was EF-1, confirms National Weather Service https://bit.ly/3mkcXpL
Tornado left two people injured and several homes damaged after sweeping through Lake Charles https://cnn.it/2XW0Wxx
'We’re still in the middle of it': Eversource says Cape Cod power outage will last days https://bit.ly/3Eq9lsv
Power Outage US https://poweroutage.us/
GFS Model Total Snowfall US https://bit.ly/2ZCpts4
Large Storm System for the Eastern U.S. as Pacific Northwest Remains Wet https://www.weather.gov/
Gigantic hailstone in Australia sets new record https://wapo.st/3mocQcQ
Australia storms: Huge hail causes chaos in two cities https://bbc.in/3vWhMsx
South Australia smashed by monster spring storm as golf ball-sized hail wreaks destruction https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5uYI...
Worldwide Volcano News https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/volc...
La Palma volcano eruption update: activity a bit calmer today, but lava flows make more progress https://bit.ly/3vYRUfB
Earthquakes Today: latest quakes near La Palma volcano: past 24 hours https://bit.ly/3hLpMXk
Astronomers eye 'giant space volcano' comet spewing 'cryomagma' https://cnet.co/2XTBpVx
and more

 

[TxGal]

 

[TxGal]

Majority Of U.S. States Forecast Snow By Mid-November, + The Sun Releases Its First Earth-Facing X-Flare In Years - Electroverse

Articles Extreme Weather GSM
MAJORITY OF U.S. STATES FORECAST SNOW BY MID-NOVEMBER, + THE SUN RELEASES ITS FIRST EARTH-FACING X-FLARE IN YEARS
OCTOBER 29, 2021 CAP ALLON

MAJORITY OF U.S. STATES FORECAST SNOW BY MID-NOVEMBER

A meridional jet stream flow –driven by the historically low solar activity our planet has been receiving– is set to plunge frigid Polar cold into the majority of North America over the next two weeks–into all-but six U.S. states.

According to the latest GFS run (shown below), winter is arriving historically early for many parts of the CONUS, with states like Texas, Arkansas and even North Carolina expecting unprecedented early-season flurries by November 10:


GFS Total Snowfall (inches) Oct 29 – Nov 14 [tropicaltidbits.com].

Focusing in on the Midwest, truly jaw-dropping totals are set to batter the states of Wisconsin, Illinois, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota (among others):


GFS Total Snowfall (inches) Oct 29 – Nov 14 [tropicaltidbits.com].

While out west, additional dumps will also increase the already record-breaking accumulations seen over the mountains and ski resorts in recent days:


GFS Total Snowfall (inches) Oct 29 – Nov 14 [tropicaltidbits.com].

The propagandizing MSM and spineless pop-scientists alike will attempt to blame this influx of early-season polar cold on a ‘Warming Arctic’ and the resulting ‘Polar Vortex’. This favorite is always rolled out to explain-away record setting freezes–as if no other forcing is capable of causing Arctic outbreaks anymore; however, the theory is deeply flawed.

For starters, if “Polar Amplification” –the theory’s official name– is indeed a thing, then why isn’t the same phenomenon also occurring at the South Pole–a region which has just suffered its coldest 6-month period in recorded history but where bouts of severe polar cold have still invaded southern hemisphere land masses, such as South America, South Africa, and Australia?

And secondly, the Arctic has actually held anomalously cool this summer, and as a result, sea ice has enjoyed its best year since 2014: “We had a reprieve this year—a cool summer with less ice melt,” said Mark Serreze, director of the NSIDC. So, the question is: if the Arctic has been holding unusual cold, then why is this year’s “Polar Vortex” looking so severe, and early?
These are square pegs that the AGW Party can’t logically round and so they don’t even bother, relying instead on the compliant masses inability to think critically and/or question the authoritative explanation laid out before them.

Once again, and for the record, a weak and wavy ‘meridional‘ jet stream flow is responsible for the climatic extremes planet earth has been witnessing of late–and this can account for spells of both heat and cold, of drought and flooding.

Historically low solar activity –the weakest in the past 100+ years– has meant less energy is entering the jets, which in turn is increasingly reverting their usual tight ZONAL flow to a wavy MERIDIONAL one. This is not new science by the way, this mechanism has been understood and accepted for many decades, but as it jars with today’s all-powerful Anthropogenic Global Warming narrative it has been dismissed, swept under the rug…




Article from 1975, Science Mag.

THE SUN RELEASES ITS FIRST EARTH-FACING X-FLARE IN YEARS

While the sun’s historically low output is on course to persist through Solar Cycle 25 –and beyond– the ramp-up to solar maxima can still be a highly active time.

On Thursday, October 28 the sun fired-off its first X-Flare in years. The global eruption began at 1535 UT when sunspot AR2887 unleashed an X1-class solar flare — the blast created a massive tsunami of plasma that rippled across the entire solar disk:



The plasma wave was about 100,000 km tall and moved through the sun’s atmosphere faster than 700 km/s (1.6 million mph), explains Dr. Tony Phillips over at spaceweather.com, and such waves often herald the launch of a coronal mass ejection (CME).

And yesterday’s eruption didn’t disappoint: SOHO coronagraphs recorded a powerful CME racing away from the sun faster than 1260 km/s (2.8 million mph):



The movie is full of “snow”–speckles caused by solar protons striking the coronagraph’s CCD camera. These particles were accelerated toward the spacecraft, and Earth, by shock waves in the leading edge of the CME — that’s right, this outburst is Earth-bound, with an ETA of Saturday, October 30.


The SWPC has the CME impacting Earth at around 1700 UT on Oct 30 [watch the animation HERE].

According to Dr. Phillips, a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm is possible upon impact. Such storms can spark naked-eye auroras as far south as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic latitude) and photographic auroras at even lower latitudes. Lesser G1 and G2-class storms could persist through Halloween as Earth passes through the CME’s wake.

Moreover, Saturday’s main event is expected to be Earth’s first real test in decades–likely since the X4.5 that darkened Quebec back in 1989. Given our planet’s ever-waning magnetic field (due to its migrating magnetic poles, among other forcings) outbursts from the sun are having a greater and greater impact here on the ground–far greater than was seen back in 1989. Field strength is the number one cause for concern for our modern tech-driven civilization, it is our protection against cosmic radiation — a big enough plasma discharge, or a weak enough shield, would lead to a total failure of the grid, globally.

Earth’s magnetic field is weaker than we’ve all realized:

In the year 2000 we knew the field had lost 10 percent of its strength since the 1800s.

Another 5 percent was lost by 2010.

Further accelerations occurred in recent years, 2015 and 2017, but we laymen were not privy to any additional loss data–with guesses on why that might be quickly sending you down a conspiracy rabbit hole.

View: https://youtu.be/rxo6L255Pp0
Run time is 0:09

As touched on above, the sun’s ramp-up into Solar Cycle 25 occurring simultaneously with Earth’s drastically reducing magnetic field is the biggest threat we humans have faced in hundreds –potentially thousands– of years, given how completely and utterly technologically-dependent we’ve all become.

And while this weekend’s X-Flare –should it indeed hit Earth– isn’t powerful enough to deliver that ‘knock-out blow’ or ‘killshot’, it is still a crucial test–one that has every chance of leading to localized disruptions to the power/internet.

That destructive X-flare (that X9+) will come soon enough –it is a matter of when and not if— and when it does hit, you can kiss our modern civilization goodbye. We’ll be on our own, to fend for ourselves: no more grocery stores/food, no more pharmacies/medicine, and, God forbid, no more ‘how-tos’ on YouTube. This apocalyptic scenario has a 50 percent chance of playing out by the solar maximum of SC25 (currently expected in the year 2024), with localized grid failures all but guaranteed by then.

But get prepared, not scared — this event, like a GSM, is entirely survivable, even thrive-able: it spells freedom from a increasingly controlling Totalitarian regime.

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with the great conjunction, historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among other forcings).

Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.

Furthermore, we can’t ignore the slew of new scientific papers stating the immense impact The Beaufort Gyre could have on the Gulf Stream, and therefore the climate overall.

But get prepared, not scared — this event, like a GSM, is entirely survivable, even thrive-able: it spells freedom from a increasingly controlling Totalitarian regime.





Prepare accordingly— learn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.

 

[northern watch]

Earthweek.pdf

 

[northern watch]

The Polar Vortex South Shift is Such a Powerful Climatic Event to Trigger an Ice Age to Begin, and Already Happened Some Tens of Thousands of Years Ago
By: Author Renato R. Colucci
Posted on Published: 26/10/2021
Severe Weather Europe

New research finds the global average temperature at 7.8°C (46°F) during the last glacial maximum with a polar vortex shifted south by many degrees of latitude compared to today. The consequences on the global cryosphere due to cold conditions were dramatic and impressive, and able to freeze on continental ice masses tens and tens of meters of sea level. Today, the worse winter conditions we face in terms of cold temperature due to the polar vortex south shift, are basically those that were normal during the last glacial maximum.

In recent years, the term polar vortex is no longer used exclusively by professional meteorologists, but by the general public as well. Often, the term polar vortex is used a bit abusing it, but it is certainly something that attracts people’s attention. The polar vortex variability, in fact, is the main trigger of the greatest cold waves affecting the U.S. and Europe. But what is the polar vortex?

THE POLAR VORTEX

In meteorology, the polar vortex is a semi-permanent low pressure located just above the North Pole. It is a large region of rotating, cold air that encircles both polar regions.

Several meteorologists consider the polar vortex to be no more and no less than the mean zonal flux at high latitudes. This structure, flowing around the Earth, gives rise to a vortex (closed isobars, approximately circular and concentric) when viewed by an observer located just above the Arctic.

The polar vortex might be seen as a semi-permanent stable cold circulation pattern describing two distinct phenomena: the stratospheric polar vortex, and the tropospheric polar vortex.

The stratospheric polar vortex is a large-scale baric structure especially active in the cold, winter season. High-speed cyclonically rotating winds are located between roughly 15 kilometers and 50 kilometers high. The stratospheric polar vortex strengthens and extends in the autumn and shrinks and fills in the spring. In summer, the polar vortex is practically absent as its autumn genesis is due to the cold air forming in the surrounding arctic areas.

The original version of the image above source NOAA is available at EcoWatch article.

The tropospheric polar vortex is instead often defined as the area poleward of the tropospheric jet stream, extending from the ground up to about 10-15 kilometers. Unlike the stratospheric polar vortex, the tropospheric polar vortex exists all year round. Temporary events can jeopardize its existence. For example, the development of lobes that cause it to shatter towards the mid-latitudes could cause intense cold outbreaks in Europe or the U.S.

Until the seventies, the concept of polar vortex was replaced by the simpler and more generic one of the polar front. The polar front ideally separates the arctic cold air from milder sub-tropical air of the mid-latitudes. The term polar front is inherited from the Norwegian meteorological school.

Polar Vortex dynamics over the recent 20 years

The low-pressure area can be imagined as a large top at high altitude with a counterclockwise circulatory motion, centered on the vertical of the North Pole. On the other hand, in the troposphere, the prevailing baric regime is of high pressure. The higher the rotation speed and the more intense the vortex, the lower the probability of polar cold outbreaks towards mid-latitudes.

If the polar vortex weakens, the jet stream tends to be more meandering. This allows the arctic cold air to drop suddenly in latitude affecting North America or Western Europe.

Sometimes the stratospheric vortex deepens downwards triggering a tropospheric vortex and the two baric figures can feed each other.

Above, an image courtesy of NASA showing the typical jet stream meandering

A measure of the intensity of the polar vortex is given by the Arctic Oscillation (AO). In turn, the Arctic Oscillation has close links with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The North Atlantic oscillation is a teleconnection index depending on differences in the atmospheric pressure between Iceland and the Azores islands.

In the Pacific Ocean, The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) is an oscillation of atmospheric pressure and sea-surface temperature in the North Pacific Ocean. NPO affects, among other things, winter temperature over most of North America.

The NPO is similar to the NAO in having a low-index state and a high-index state. A low NPO index is associated with southerly winds along the west coast of North America, which tends to bring warmer air into the region. A high NPO index brings a northerly airflow, with the corresponding movement into the region of cold, sub-polar air

The figure above is courtesy of J. Wallace, University of Washington) from the National Snow and Ice Data Centre1.

Among meteorological enthusiasts, the polar vortex is a meteorological and climatic structure to be kept under control all the time. In particular, for example, when sudden stratospheric warmings are in effect, the polar vortex is destabilized.

In a few weeks from the sudden stratospheric warming, arctic air tends to be advected at great speed towards southern latitudes. This leads to cold outbreaks with very marked negative temperature anomalies. The main issue, however, is linked to the fact that when sudden stratospheric warming occurs, we are almost sure there will be a spill of cold Arctic air towards the southern latitudes. Anyway, it is difficult to know what the precise target of the cold will be.

The image above shows an example of the cold outbreak that occurred in February 2021

Very often, the primary target is represented by the U.S. Occasionally, such cold outbreaks affect Western Europe. Practically, a shift of the polar vortex to the south, as occurred on many occasions in the past, brings Europe and U.S. back to the similar normal conditions that should have been in place during the last glacial maximum

End of Part 1

 

[northern watch]

Part 2

THE LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM

Last Glacial Maximum refers to the most recent time during the Last Glacial Period when ice sheets were at their greatest extent. The image below shows the ice sheets and glaciers distribution reconstructed for the Last Glacial Maximum in the northern hemisphere.

A recent study by Jessica Tierney and others (she is an associate professor at the University of Arizona Department of Geosciences), and published in the prestigious scientific journal Nature, calculated how was the most likely global average temperature during the last glacial maximum, about twenty thousand years ago.

The research team used models that connected data from ocean plankton fossils to sea-surface temperature. This technique is called data assimilation, used in weather forecasting, and was employed to link the fossil data with climate model simulations of the last glacial maximum.

Basically, what normally happens in a weather office is they measure the temperature, pressure, humidity and use these measurements to update a forecasting model and predict the weather. In this case, scientists used the Boulder, Colorado-based National Center for Atmospheric Research climate model to produce a hindcast of the Last Glacial Maximum. Then, they updated this hindcast with real data to predict what the climate was like

The original image above is available in Nature article.

More, the team of scientists calculated the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. Climate Sensitivity is a measure of how much the Earth’s climate will cool or warm after a change in the climate system. For example, how much it will warm for doubling in carbon dioxide concentrations. The equilibrium climate sensitivity has been calculated at 3.4°C (6.1°F). Carbon levels during the Ice Age were about 180 parts per million, then rose to about 280 parts per million during the Holocene (the last interglacial), and have by now reached 419 parts per million.

During the Last Glacial Maximum, the calculated Earth’s temperature with this method was most likely 7.8°C (46°F). The decrease, compared to the pre-industrial period (1850), equals to -6.1°C (-11°F) with a maximum probability range between -5.7°C and -6.5°C. The global average temperature of the 20th century was 14°C. The current average temperature of the Earth is now close to 15°C.

The image above shows the locations of the proxies used for the Last Glacial Maximum reconstruction. The original is available at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2617-x

Nowadays, with global warming in effect, some areas of the planet are affected differently by climate change, mainly due to feedbacks. For the same reason, the Arctic areas of the planet cooled twice as much during the Last Glacial Maximum and had a temperature about 14°C lower than today.

Like the arctic areas, mountain areas are also climatic hot spots. The European Alps, for example, probably cooled by around 10°C compared to pre-industrial values. The decidedly colder climate led the planet’s cryosphere to react, obviously in a direction completely opposite to what is happening today.

The ice sheets expanded and new ones formed. In Northern Europe, the Eurasian Ice sheet covered Scandinavia, part of Northern Europe, and part of the British Isles up to Ireland.

The image above shows the calculated summer temperature drop in the Mediterranean and the Alps during the last ice age, by Kuhlemann and others, Science. Calculations are derived from reconstructed ELA. To know better what the ELA is, you can follow this link and read a recent article about the ELA

Central Europe was entirely affected by frozen ground and permafrost which, in some cases, reached hundreds of meters of depth. The Eurasian ice sheet is estimated to have had a maximum ice thickness of about 3,000 meters (9,800 feet).

Even today, due to the weight of this enormous ice mass, Scandinavia is reacting with the phenomenon of isostasy. The Scandinavian continental part, that is, continues to rise slowly especially in its central area where the ice sheet was thicker.

The image above shows the Eurasian ice sheet extent at the LGM credits Svendsen and others (2004)

The same thing happened in North America. Here, the North American Ice Sheet was almost 3 kilometers (2 miles) thick and covered North America from the Canadian Arctic all the way to the modern U.S. state of Missouri.

The North American Ice Sheet pushed south to about the latitude of Seattle, Bismarck, Madison, and New York. A lobe close to the U.S. East coast dropped in latitude to the cities of Indianapolis, Columbus, and Pittsburgh.

The original image above is available at this link from Nature

But it was the very presence of the large ice sheets that further changed the general global circulation, as well as the extent of sea ice. In the Atlantic Ocean, the sea-ice surrounded all of Greenland and Iceland. Instead, the seasonal sea-ice reached as far as the coasts of France and sometimes northern Spain. In the Pacific Ocean, sea-ice entirely surrounded the Aleutian Islands in Alaska. A vast landmass, called Beringia, linked Siberia to Alaska.

In particular, recent Italian research by Giovanni Monegato and others published in the scientific journal Nature’s Scientific Reports explained how the growth of the North American Ice Sheet between 26 thousand and 24 thousand years ago led to a further drop in the polar front to the latitude of northern Spain.

This has contributed to the growth of glaciers in the European Alps thanks to precipitation increase. The moisture entered the Mediterranean from the west thanks to the south shifted polar front, feeding in that way the alpine glaciers.

In the video below the animation of temperature variation and glacier response over the European Alps from 100 thousand years ago up to the present day. The original video is available by Seguinot et al. following this link Modelling last glacial cycle ice dynamics in the Alps

End of Part 2

 

[northern watch]

Part 3

Glacier response over the European Alps over the last 100 thousand years

Then, the subsequent modification of precipitation and currents led to a slight rise of the polar front towards the north which allowed the Eurasian Ice Sheet to enlarge and reach its maximum size between 23 thousand and 17 thousand years ago.

The image below, explains precisely what we just described. Before this work, the thousands-years-time lag when the two main ice sheets reached their maximum size during the Last Glacial Maximum, had not yet been explained properly

The original Image above is available at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-02148-7

WHAT CAUSES AN ICE AGE

The causes of the ice ages are well known and linked in particular to astronomical forcing. Variations in eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession resulted in cyclical variation in the solar radiation reaching the Earth. These orbital forcings strongly influence the Earth’s climate patterns. Wavering periodically give rise, when their effects are in phase, to glaciations every 100 thousand years.

The Earth’s axis completes a precession cycle every 26 thousand years. The elliptical orbit completes one cycle every 22 thousand years. Furthermore, the angle between the Earth’s axis and the normal of the orbital plane varies periodically between 22.5° and 24.5°, with a period of 41 thousand years.

The combined effects of these three types of orbital cycles affect the amount of solar energy that reaches the Earth in different seasons, especially at high latitudes.

With cold weather, snowfalls of course increase during the ice age. More, summer ablation is also greatly reduced. The consequence is that snowfalls fail to melt in the short summers characterized by a polar front much further south.

This causes massive amounts of freshwater to freeze in continental ice. An ice age, in the end, helps remove part of the water of the atmosphere from the Earth’s hydrological cycle. The most direct consequence is a global sea-level lowering.
In the image below you can see in red the areas of land that emerged during the Last Glacial Maximum in Europe.

Therefore, the polar vortex is a meteorological and climatological structure so well known today. It certainly makes thousands of weather amateurs dream about it. But at the same time it makes millions of people fear about it, due to the extreme cold, snow, blizzards it brings with it.

The polar vortex, in the past, represented a fundamental element in modulating variations of the Earth’s climate history and reacted, as well, responding to changes in climatic parameters. In particular, the last 2.56 million years have been characterized by a sequence of recursive ice ages and shorter interglacial periods.

Today, we are lucky enough to be able to taste from time to time what the average conditions might have been during the Last Glacial Maximum. We can experience short-time ice-age conditions thanks to the polar vortex south shift. The polar vortex is able to bring to our home, in a short time, the typical conditions the Earth was facing 20 thousand years ago.

We will keep you updated on this and much more, so make sure to bookmark our page. Also, if you have seen this article in the Google App (Discover) feed or social media, click the like button (♥) to see more of our forecasts and our latest articles on weather, climate, cryosphere, and nature in general.

The polar vortex south shift is such a powerful climatic event to trigger an ice age to begin, and already happened some tens of thousands of years ago (severe-weather.eu)

End of Part 3 of 3

 

[northern watch]

The short version of the above

 

[packyderms_wife]

Earlier this fall I saw a prediction, Farmer's Almanac???, that Iowa would be warmer than normal. Now it's going to be colder and snowier than normal. Lots of volcanoes going off right now.

 

[Windwood]

Part 3

Glacier response over the European Alps over the last 100 thousand years

Then, the subsequent modification of precipitation and currents led to a slight rise of the polar front towards the north which allowed the Eurasian Ice Sheet to enlarge and reach its maximum size between 23 thousand and 17 thousand years ago.

The image below, explains precisely what we just described. Before this work, the thousands-years-time lag when the two main ice sheets reached their maximum size during the Last Glacial Maximum, had not yet been explained properly

The original Image above is available at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-02148-7

WHAT CAUSES AN ICE AGE

The causes of the ice ages are well known and linked in particular to astronomical forcing. Variations in eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession resulted in cyclical variation in the solar radiation reaching the Earth. These orbital forcings strongly influence the Earth’s climate patterns. Wavering periodically give rise, when their effects are in phase, to glaciations every 100 thousand years.

The Earth’s axis completes a precession cycle every 26 thousand years. The elliptical orbit completes one cycle every 22 thousand years. Furthermore, the angle between the Earth’s axis and the normal of the orbital plane varies periodically between 22.5° and 24.5°, with a period of 41 thousand years.

The combined effects of these three types of orbital cycles affect the amount of solar energy that reaches the Earth in different seasons, especially at high latitudes.

With cold weather, snowfalls of course increase during the ice age. More, summer ablation is also greatly reduced. The consequence is that snowfalls fail to melt in the short summers characterized by a polar front much further south.

This causes massive amounts of freshwater to freeze in continental ice. An ice age, in the end, helps remove part of the water of the atmosphere from the Earth’s hydrological cycle. The most direct consequence is a global sea-level lowering.
In the image below you can see in red the areas of land that emerged during the Last Glacial Maximum in Europe.

Therefore, the polar vortex is a meteorological and climatological structure so well known today. It certainly makes thousands of weather amateurs dream about it. But at the same time it makes millions of people fear about it, due to the extreme cold, snow, blizzards it brings with it.

The polar vortex, in the past, represented a fundamental element in modulating variations of the Earth’s climate history and reacted, as well, responding to changes in climatic parameters. In particular, the last 2.56 million years have been characterized by a sequence of recursive ice ages and shorter interglacial periods.

Today, we are lucky enough to be able to taste from time to time what the average conditions might have been during the Last Glacial Maximum. We can experience short-time ice-age conditions thanks to the polar vortex south shift. The polar vortex is able to bring to our home, in a short time, the typical conditions the Earth was facing 20 thousand years ago.

We will keep you updated on this and much more, so make sure to bookmark our page. Also, if you have seen this article in the Google App (Discover) feed or social media, click the like button (♥) to see more of our forecasts and our latest articles on weather, climate, cryosphere, and nature in general.

The polar vortex south shift is such a powerful climatic event to trigger an ice age to begin, and already happened some tens of thousands of years ago (severe-weather.eu)

End of Part 3 of 3

Thank you Northern Watch! All 3 parts were VERY interesting!

 

[TxGal]

I woke up to 36 degrees this morning. Yesterday they'd forecasted us to drop to 38, then last evening changed it to 44. And here we are at 36. I'm so glad we put out extra hay for the cattle, and extra bedding for the chickens and ducks. Thankfully, house didn't drop below 72....but even still, I threw an extra blanket on the bed just in case.

Martinhouse and others, did you all experience a decent drop in temps?

 

[TxGal]

The Oppenheimer Ranch project has one on the CME:

G3 Geomagnetic Storm Predicted -X Flare CME Impact, What Will The Effects Be On Earth & Human Health - YouTube

G3 Geomagnetic Storm Predicted -X Flare CME Impact, What Will The Effects Be On Earth & Human Health
13,045 views
Premiered 17 hours ago

View: https://youtu.be/vg7A0FFbkZg
Run time is 7:14

Synopsis provided:

G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm Watch for October 30 http://bit.ly/30cI8GV
Solar flare headed for Earth could trigger Northern Lights this weekend – and disrupt power grid https://bit.ly/3GCzKVR
GOES X-Ray Flux https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/go...
Geomagnetic Storms and Human Health https://bit.ly/38DKHat
Aroura Potential Map https://bit.ly/3nFe3fk
Solar Wind Prediction (Enlil Spiral) https://bit.ly/3rIEYrV
The duration of solar flares https://www.stce.be/news/332/welcome....

 

[TxGal]

Here's one from Suspicious Observers:

La Palma Hits M5, CME Impact Imminent, Electroreception | S0 News Oct.30.2021 - YouTube

La Palma Hits M5, CME Impact Imminent, Electroreception | S0 News Oct.30.2021
6,625 views
Oct 30, 2021

View: https://youtu.be/GtEoWyrdBL0
Run time is 4:27

No synopsis provided except as suggested by title.

 

[TxGal]

Not sure what effect this could have on the atmosphere and global cooling:

Enormous underwater volcanic eruption creates waves of pumice off Japan -- Earth Changes -- Sott.net

Enormous underwater volcanic eruption creates waves of pumice off Japan

Hannah Osborne
Newsweek
Fri, 29 Oct 2021 19:25 UTC


A beach covered in pumice after an underwater volcanic eruption.

The biggest underwater volcanic eruption Japan has seen since the end of WWII has left shores covered in pumice stone. In one video, stones are seen covering the waves, while images show fishing ports inundated with volcanic rock.

The volcano, Fukutoku-Okanoba, is situated on the Ogasawara island chain, about 800 miles from Tokyo. It sits about 25 meters below the surface of the sea.

It exploded on August 13, with images showing a huge plume of gas rising out of the sea, into the air. Satellite images from NASA showed a huge bright plume streaming from the vent, stretching for miles.

In a NASA statement, Andrew Tupper, a meteorologist with Natural Hazards Consulting, said: "What was remarkable about this eruption is that it went straight from being a submarine event to an eruption cloud reaching the lower boundary of the stratosphere. That is not very common for this type of volcano. We normally see lower-level plumes from submarine eruptions."

View: https://youtu.be/7Yeq5Dn4gJA
Run time is 0:25

Huge quantities of pumice stone ejected from the volcano have now started washing up along coastlines in the Okinawa Prefecture.

Greg Valentine, Professor of Geology and Director of the Center for Geohazards Studies at the University at Buffalo College of Arts and Sciences, told Newsweek large amounts of pumice appearing after eruptions is fairly common: "Especially in the western Pacific where the Ring of Fire, caused by subduction of the ocean crust, includes numerous volcanoes that have not yet reached the surface of the sea. Also, sometimes volcanoes that are on land but near the sea will produce large volumes of pumice that end up in the ocean."

In terms of the damage it could cause, Valentine said: "Pumice is very abrasive, so when combined with wave action it can cause quite a bit of damage to boats and any infrastructure (for example, piers) that are on the surface of the water or that penetrate the surface. It can also clog pipes and engines."

According to The Asahi Shimbun, tens of millions of cubic meters of pumice were ejected during the eruption. The pumice has now washed up at 10 coastal locations, causing huge disruption to fishing vessels. Okinawa officials said large numbers of fish being held in Hentona port had died from swallowing the stone.

So much pumice was ejected during the eruption that the floating rock could be seen from space.

Japanese meteorologist Sayaka Mori tweeted images of the pumice, saying: "Sea snot? Sea foam? No, they are pumice stones floating over the ocean around Okinawa. The stones are debris from the huge August undersea volcanic eruption 1,300 km [a little over 800 miles] from Okinawa. Experts say the stones might reach the coast near Tokyo in late November."

Rafts of pumice are often produced after underwater volcanic eruptions. In 2019, a Paris-sized raft was spotted heading towards the Great Barrier Reef in Australia. It was thought to have come from a huge underwater eruption of a volcano near the island of Tonga. In 2012, a pumice raft 300 miles long and 30 miles wide was observed near New Zealand. This was produced by the deep, submarine eruption of the Havre caldera volcano in the Southwest Pacific.

The Japan coast guard said that eventually the pumice will reach parts of the Japan mainland soon, with the north-flowing current transporting the floating rock.

"If the pumice floats towards land it will eventually become part of the coastal deposits," Valentine said. "If it does not encounter land, it might drift around for months, possibly years, before breaking up and/or sinking."


© NASA EARTH OBSERVATORY
The plume from the volcanic eruption that has produced the huge amounts of pumice now washing up on Japanese shores.

 

[Digger]

We were only got into the upper 40s last night. It is 49* now in north central Arkansas.

 

[ktrapper]

We brought in another cord of wood yesterday. It was 68 in Drummond, MT
Very out of norm for this late in the year.
We got back to our place up in the mountains and got the wood unloaded just before it started raining. Smelled like a summer rain.
Makes me think the winter will drag out late again next spring. Seems almost like winter has shifted each way by a month here.

 

[paxsim2]

36 this morning in Oklahoma. Next week even colder but this weekend will be nice. I broke down and turned heat on.

 

[Martinhouse]

I live pretty near to Digger and my thermometer shows 50 right now, so I imagine my low temp this morning was about the same as hers.

 

[summerthyme]

We brought in another cord of wood yesterday. It was 68 in Drummond, MT
Very out of norm for this late in the year.
We got back to our place up in the mountains and got the wood unloaded just before it started raining. Smelled like a summer rain.
Makes me think the winter will drag out late again next spring. Seems almost like winter has shifted each way by a month here.

It's been that way here in NY state for at least 3 years... winter keeps coming later and spring drags out at least a month late. This year, we've been having TONS of rain (over 8" in a week) and we haven't had a frost yet. We're just west of the Adirondaks... this isn't normal!

Summerthyme

 

[Martinhouse]

Same here the last few years. No frost until November and it used to be roughly the third to fourth week of October. Same in the spring, too. Chilly through most of May and I sure don't plant my outdoor garden on the third weekend of April any more!

I got some of what I call the dead bargains at the feed store garden center this morning. Three six packs of snapdragons and a little pot of plain old chives. They really aren't dead, just marked to almost nothing so as to make a couple more bucks instead of tossing them.

I plan to finish enclosing the greenhouse in plastic today and tomorrow. Most of the plastic is still hanging with clothespins but I got the fasteners I needed so can hopefully finish this project before we get the predicted frosts the last part of next week. Then it will take some much colder weather to damage any of what's growing out there, My house is always chilly and I love going out there on sunny winter afternoons when it gets toasty. In the summer I close the door from the house into the greenhouse when the temp out there reaches 80 to 85. In the winter, I open those same doors when the temp out there reaches 70!

 

[Telescope Steve]

I expected this thread to wind down once the current sunspot cycle picked up, as expected. I don't see a solar minimum at this point. What am I missing?

 

[nchomemaker]

I expected this thread to wind down once the current sunspot cycle picked up, as expected. I don't see a solar minimum at this point. What am I missing?

I'm wondering the same. I thought the solar minimum was supposed to last till around 2050. ???

 

[summerthyme]

It's a GRAND solar minimum, which means even the solar "maximum" cycles will have fewer sunspots, possibly for several cycles. It's a cooling trend...

Summerthyme

 

[TxGal]

We woke up to 41 this morning, which a darn sight better than yesterday's low. House stayed at 71, thankfully. Don't like cold anyhow. I think we're in a slight warming trend, with another cold front forecasted for next week. It begins.

 

[night driver]

It's been that way here in NY state for at least 3 years... winter keeps coming later and spring drags out at least a month late. This year, we've been having TONS of rain (over 8" in a week) and we haven't had a frost yet. We're just west of the Adirondaks... this isn't normal!

Summerthyme

IIRC you are not QUITE up on the Plateau though you should have seen at least ONE frost by now.
Though CLE has yet to have a killing frost either.

 

[TxGal]

From the Oppeheimer Ranch Project:

Major Solar Storm A Fizzle So Far - La Palma Eruption Update - More Snow Coming -Australia Pummeled! - YouTube

Major Solar Storm A Fizzle So Far - La Palma Eruption Update - More Snow Coming -Australia Pummeled!
4,084 views
Premiered 9 hours ago

View: https://youtu.be/9SAtLBomyC0
Run time is 14:01

Synopsis provided:

Hundreds of thousands without power after freak storm ravages Victoria https://bit.ly/3Bus3gW
Winter weather closes Mount Mitchell on Thursday more Snow Saturday https://bit.ly/3btjV5w
Snow Chances Increasing This Weekend for the Rockies https://bit.ly/3vY39oJ
Colder and cloudy Sunday with snowfall increasing Sunday Night into Monday https://bit.ly/3pRUByt
Could pattern flip usher in snow to the Midwest, Northeast? https://bit.ly/3EzAeKu
GFS Model Total Snow US https://bit.ly/3GzGaVP MAJORITY OF U.S. STATES FORECAST SNOW BY MID-NOVEMBER, + THE SUN RELEASES ITS FIRST EARTH-FACING X-FLARE IN YEARS https://bit.ly/3nL1COV
Aurora borealis could be visible in wide swaths of continental US, Europe on Saturday because of large solar flare https://bit.ly/2ZHxrjG Planetary K-Index http://bit.ly/2Edsotf
Solar Wind https://d3k7gxzd368ul3.cloudfront.net...
K and A Indexes https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/st...
Proton Flux https://dpa-images.s3.amazonaws.com/g...
Aurora Forecast http://bit.ly/2nO2A1y
3 Day Geomagnetic and Aurora Forecast (October 31, 2021) https://bit.ly/3nI6Afl
USGS says no reports of earthquake after hundreds of Lake County residents report loud rumble https://bit.ly/3mtpgjy
Worldwide Volcano News https://bit.ly/3y58XgJ
latest quakes near La Palma volcano: past 24 hours https://bit.ly/3hLpMXk
La Palma Quakes vs Depth https://bit.ly/2XseTTk\
La Palma Seismic Tremor Data https://bit.ly/2ZyYvRY
LIVE: La Palma Volcano Eruption, the Canary Islands https://bit.ly/3vFWrDM
We now know the big bang theory (probably) not how the universe began https://bit.ly/3CvgG9J
and more

 

[TxGal]

From Suspicious Observers:

CME Impact, Full Analysis, Current Sheet Science | S0 News Oct.31.2021 - YouTube

CME Impact, Full Analysis, Current Sheet Science | S0 News Oct.31.2021
2,542 views
Oct 31, 2021

View: https://youtu.be/7MAJa3SQZM4
Run time is 5:27

No synopsis provided except as suggested by the title

 

[TxGal]

Severe hailstorm hits the state of Santa Caterina, Brazil -- Earth Changes -- Sott.net

Severe hailstorm hits the state of Santa Caterina, Brazil

tvjornal.ne10.uol.com.br
Fri, 29 Oct 2021 12:06 UTC


The municipality of São Joaquim, in Santa Catarina, suffered a hailstorm this Friday (29). According to the Civil Defense, several houses were roofless and around eight houses were invaded by water. The Association of Municipalities of the Midwest of Santa Catarina (Ammoc) reported that there was also a record of hail in Catanduvas and Vargem Bonita. See the video below:

View: https://youtu.be/hqAJdemHzDw
Run time is 1:45

 

[TxGal]

 

[Martinhouse]

TxGal, I woke to 40 or 41 this morning, too. It's still only 42 and very overcast.

Hope the sun comes out soon...I need ot to warm up! lots to do outside before more rain moves in ahead of the cold front the middle of the week.

I should finish getting the plastic sheeting on the greenhouse today and then tomorrow I can finish securing it so that no more of our seemingly constant cold north wind will no longer be blowing through.

ALso need to get plastic up on the doors to the chicken pen and the rabbit cage enclosure. And drain the garden hoses and remove the metal nozzles from them, I'll know by the end of the week if I need to put the hoses up for the winter or if we might get one more warm-up.

I HATE WINTER!!!!!

 

[ktrapper]

Oh Crap! Fertilizer Shortages Could Become the Death Knell for Global Food Production

The production of fertilizers has stopped for various reasons and prices have reached record highs. Sky-high prices for electricity and transport will have a major impact on food prices, but fertilizer shortages risk knocking out large parts of global food production. The consequences could be...

basedunderground.com

Oh Crap! Fertilizer Shortages Could Become the Death Knell for Global Food Production
The ongoing energy and logistics crisis is affecting most countries in the world. Many are beginning to feel the "pain" of a shortage of goods and skyrocketing prices for mainly energy. However, another more unknown shortage, which has now emerged, could be the death knell for global food security: Fertilizers.
by Christer Ericsson

October 31, 2021






The production of fertilizers has stopped for various reasons and prices have reached record highs.
Sky-high prices for electricity and transport will have a major impact on food prices, but fertilizer shortages risk knocking out large parts of global food production. The consequences could be grave.
Extreme weather, not least precipitation and cold spells, have disrupted this year’s harvests to such an extent that it has a significant effect on global food production, which in itself creates price increases and a shortage of certain foods. In China, everything from the city’s street lighting to entire factories are being turned off while the Communist Party CCP has been trying to cover up a lousy autumn harvest. The recent floods in China once again hit Henan Province, which is considered China’s granary, seriously affecting China’s food production.
Poor people in countries like Brazil are even worse off and already have to choose between being able to afford food or energy such as electricity and fuel. In the Philippines, for example, fuel prices have risen by almost 40 percent in just three weeks, but at least warm countries do not have to worry about cold winters.

The latter is a real threat to northern latitudes, as last winter was historically long and cold in most places in the northern hemisphere. It may be repeated since we entered a Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) in December 2019, and it does not bode well for the coming winter.
Food and commodity shortages have always created chaos. The example that may still be in fresh memory is the so-called Arab Spring of 2010, which started with bread riots. In countries such as Lebanon, the decline of society has also already begun. After months of week-long power outages, food shortages and skyrocketing commodity prices, the country is falling into chaos with threatening recurrences of civil wars.
Developed countries will ‘soon feel the pain’
For a few months now, the shortage of energy and goods has also affected developed countries and has gradually spread and worsened. An opinion poll conducted by the Atlanta-based survey company Trafalgar, which was presented on October 22, showed that more than half of all Americans were already affected by the shortage of goods. Some 54 percent answered “yes” to the question of whether they suffered from “delays or shortages in trying to buy ordinary consumer products”.
Europe, which imports 90 percent of its natural gas, mainly from Russia, has so far mainly been affected by an energy shortage. On Tuesday 19 October alone, prices rose by more than 20 percent in a single day. Prices have increased fivefold since the beginning of the year, from 19 euros at the time of writing 96 euros per equivalent megawatt hour (MWh).

Farmers across Europe are hard hit by this, which in turn threatens the entire food chain. An example is Italy, where the prices of methane gas have doubled, which will raise the prices of cereals such as wheat and thus, among other things, bread and pasta. This is because methane, propane and natural gas are used to dry harvested crops so that they do not rot.
Meat and dairy products are also affected, as prices for animal feed have risen markedly during the year and have accelerated more rapidly in recent times. Valentino Miotto from the trade association Aires Association, which represents the grain sector, describes the increasingly difficult situation of Italian farmers with the words: “From October onwards, we have started to suffer an enormous amount,” Miotto told the AP news agency.
The EU warns families and businesses
On Wednesday, October 20, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, warned that factories in the EU may be forced to close due to high energy prices. “We are seeing a rise in prices that makes it difficult for many families to get their finances together, and we also see that there is a risk that companies will have to close down,” said von der Leyen.
The European Commission has six stated priorities for the years 2019-2024. The first is that Europe should “become the first climate-neutral continent” on the planet and the second is a “digital strategy” where the people of Europe will have to live with “a new generation of technology”, which will transform Europe during the “digital decade” by 2030. Then at least 55 percent of carbon dioxide emissions must also be eliminated, which requires a total adjustment of everything and not least industry – which now risks having to shut down due to energy shortages.

Sources with insight at European government level said that behind closed doors around Europe, plans were now being drawn up for electricity rationing, similar to that in China, in case of a cold winter. There are many indications that Europeans are actually facing a record cold winter.
Epidemic of accidents
The only thing worse than energy shortages with skyrocketing prices for electricity and fuel is a food shortage. Already in the autumn of 2019, the EU’s Commissioner for Agriculture, the Pole Janusz Wojciechowski, sounded the alarm about how many farms were lost in the EU countries.

ACCIDENT WITH FREIGHT TRAINS CARRYING FERTILIZER. No fewer than 47 wagons derailed and several began burning in the state of Iowa on May 16(pictured). Less than a day earlier, another freight train with 28 wagons with chemical products for manure production derailed in Minnesota. Photo: Nathan Minten
And something which has the potential to knock out half of all food production in the world all at once, is the lack of fertilizer. As Alfred Henry Lewis (1855-1914), an American investigative journalist and author once noted: “There are only nine meals between humanity and anarchy.”
Fertilizer manufacturers have suffered countless setbacks in recent times. It is about everything from climate-related political decisions and failed transport capacity, to natural disasters and a wave of strange accidents that occurred during the year. Around the world, everything from factories have been destroyed in explosions to trains loaded with fertilizer derailed. In some cases, sabotage is suspected.

An example of devastating accidents occurred in the US state of Iowa on May 16 earlier this year. A freight train transporting fertilizer in no less than 47 wagons then derailed and several of the wagons also started to burn. Less than a day before, another freight train with 28 carriages derailed in Minnesota. It carried, among other things, hydrochloric acid, which is an important ingredient for fertilizer.
The accidents with hazardous chemical substances led to both evacuations of surrounding residents and time-consuming clean-up work, which disrupted both logistics and the supply just when demand was high. These are just two of the unusually high number of accidents that have affected manufacturers and transports of fertilizers in the past year. An American train driver with over 30 years of experience commented that “we have more derailments with fertilizer trains this year than during my entire professional time”.
Natural disasters compounded
An example of a natural disaster that seriously affected the availability of fertilizers is when Hurricane Ida swept across the southern United States and Louisiana on August 29, the second most powerful hurricane after Katrina to hit the southern United States.
In Louisiana, is CF Industries’ largest ammonia factory in the world, but it was closed down for safety reasons the day before Ida struck, but could not resume production after it had passed due to the power outage.


When the news reached the market, the already sky-high prices of fertilizer skyrocketed. In many respects, the event triggered a negative spiral of rampant prices – which in turn created panic purchases and exacerbated the shortages.
Fertilizer factories have recently also begun to close down their operations due to the high costs of natural gas, which is used in production.
A couple of examples are two factories in the UK, one in Billingham and one in Cheshire, which closed in mid-September. The two plants account for no less than around 45 percent of domestic demand. Industry insiders have pointed out how they found it strange that these were owned by CF Industries.
Instead of compensating for delays due to the hurricane, CF chose to close two more factories two weeks later.

The same thing has happened in many European countries with “too high natural gas prices”. Austrian fertilizer producer Borealis AG and German SKW Piesteritz, which is Germany’s largest producer of ammonia have scaled down production by 20 percent. The German company said in a statement that “the level that has now been reached no longer enables economically sound production, so we have to take this step”.
This could be devastating for next season and the 2022 harvest in the northern hemisphere. Hermann Greif, a farmer from the village of Pinzberg in the southern state of Bavaria, told AP that he was shocked when he discovered that he could not even order fertilizer for next year. “There is no product, no price, not even a contract. It is a situation we have never seen before,” said Greif. “If I do not give my crops the nutrition they need, the yield will be much lower. It’s that simple.”
Ironically or tragically, his corn harvest does not go to food, which soon risks becoming a global scarce commodity, but to biofuels to create so-called emission-free electricity – which globalists have demanded that nation states force their farmers to switch to.
Billion risk starvation without fertilizer
China is the largest producer of fertilizer with 37 million tonnes (2019) per year, which is more than the total production in the number two producer India, the number three US and four Russia. After Russia, China is also the second largest exporter of fertilizers. Together, they account for a quarter of all exports. Should one of them suspend exports, it would hit very hard.

This is exactly what happened on July 30, when the Chinese Communist Party CCP ordered its phosphate manufacturers to suspend their exports one year ahead, until June 2022. China is the world’s largest exporter of phosphate fertilizers and had time to deliver in the first half of this year, before the export ban.
This happened after CCP has already reduced production due to “climate emission issues at production facilities”. Thus, globalists demand reduced carbon dioxide emissions and CCP reduces production so much that they then realize that they probably can no longer export. The effect of these decisions had an immediate effect on prices, as China accounts for almost a third of the world’s phosphate trade.
According to studies (Erisman et al.) Published in the scientific journal Nature, 48 percent of the world population in 2008 was dependent on nitrogen fertilizers for their daily access to food. “This means that nitrogen fertilizers in 2015 provided food security for 3,5 billion people who would otherwise have starved to death.”
Josh Linville is an analyst and expert in, among other things, fertilizers at the large financial services company Stone X. He has almost 20 years of experience in dealing with American and international fertilizer markets. On September 29, he commented on the development: “I have said it before and I continue to say it: This is not like 2008… it is more scary.”

Translated to today’s population figures, the lack of chemical fertilizers would lead to 3,8 billion people being left without food, with mass starvation, mass death, war, chaos and social decay that have not been seen since the previous Grand Solar Minimum.