Zagdid
Veteran Member
I take it as a spoken rationale for advancement that goes contradictory to previous SALT agreements. Weapon systems that were identified and restricted.
ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread
- Thread starter danielboon
- Start date
MountainBiker
Veteran Member
I do not know or understand the relative capabilities of any of the countries involved....Russia, Ukraine, US, or NATO countries as concerns tanks, planes, missiles, soldiers etc. I similarly don't know the extent to which Russia is coordinated with China, Iran, NK, or anyone else.
What I am good at and what gave me career success was seeing the big picture and then bringing it down to the pertinent details vs getting lost in the clutter. With what I see now, my high level assessment, or logic check if you will, is that the Russians would have to be insane to think they could succeed in a conventional war with Ukraine, the US, and NATO. Russia understands war far better than we here in the US. They suffered mightily against Napoleon and in WWI & WWII, both soldier & civilian. US deaths and casualties were comparatively minimal. They know what war is. Few Americans do.
The Russians aren't insane. I repeat: they know what war is. All parties involved know that nobody can win a nuclear war, so that can't be their gameplan either. Even if they somehow infiltrated the launch controls to stop our missile launches, our subs are capable of waging war independent of land-based weapons systems.
A piece of this could certainly be Russia smells weakness in the Administration and at the Pentagon, but if so, their position would be even better if they waited a couple years into the Biden Admin for the rot to get worse. Perceived current weakness doesn't logic check for me.
My bottom line guess is that the Russians are coordinated with China and others and that the goal isn't Ukraine but rather knocking the US off its arrogant pedestal (to much of the world, likely including most of our allies) so that China can be the new global power with Russia being given control of the former Soviet block as their reward. Even with China aligned with Russia in a global war, conventional war (tanks, soldiers etc) is a risky proposition w/o any guarantee of success. The Chinese aren't fools. Laying waste to the land and cities isn't in their long term interest.
Russia & China likely have cyberwar capabilities that can bring us to our knees rather quickly. China can otherwise shut down our economy rather quickly by simply not shipping anything to us. Our military can't function without Chinese suppliers. Russia & China's recently demonstrated hypersonic missile technology and the ability to shoot down satelites could well be more advanced than even they have let on with their demonstrations. Those demonstrations were given as a warning. Russia & China play to win, no matter the price. The US doesn't, I think on account the general public seemingly demands that the only casualties and damage be military in nature.
What I am good at and what gave me career success was seeing the big picture and then bringing it down to the pertinent details vs getting lost in the clutter. With what I see now, my high level assessment, or logic check if you will, is that the Russians would have to be insane to think they could succeed in a conventional war with Ukraine, the US, and NATO. Russia understands war far better than we here in the US. They suffered mightily against Napoleon and in WWI & WWII, both soldier & civilian. US deaths and casualties were comparatively minimal. They know what war is. Few Americans do.
The Russians aren't insane. I repeat: they know what war is. All parties involved know that nobody can win a nuclear war, so that can't be their gameplan either. Even if they somehow infiltrated the launch controls to stop our missile launches, our subs are capable of waging war independent of land-based weapons systems.
A piece of this could certainly be Russia smells weakness in the Administration and at the Pentagon, but if so, their position would be even better if they waited a couple years into the Biden Admin for the rot to get worse. Perceived current weakness doesn't logic check for me.
My bottom line guess is that the Russians are coordinated with China and others and that the goal isn't Ukraine but rather knocking the US off its arrogant pedestal (to much of the world, likely including most of our allies) so that China can be the new global power with Russia being given control of the former Soviet block as their reward. Even with China aligned with Russia in a global war, conventional war (tanks, soldiers etc) is a risky proposition w/o any guarantee of success. The Chinese aren't fools. Laying waste to the land and cities isn't in their long term interest.
Russia & China likely have cyberwar capabilities that can bring us to our knees rather quickly. China can otherwise shut down our economy rather quickly by simply not shipping anything to us. Our military can't function without Chinese suppliers. Russia & China's recently demonstrated hypersonic missile technology and the ability to shoot down satelites could well be more advanced than even they have let on with their demonstrations. Those demonstrations were given as a warning. Russia & China play to win, no matter the price. The US doesn't, I think on account the general public seemingly demands that the only casualties and damage be military in nature.
colonel holman
Veteran Member
Makes sense. None of the big players would dare go nuke, strategically. The risk would be field officers using tactical nukes against opposing forces. However, the world views any nuke to be a nuke, even a relatively “tiny” one in the field, quickly escalating to use em or lose em. Like some have said before: after the first one, the rest are free. The fate of civilizations rests with a few field officers with their own glory toys.
More likely is TEOTWAWKI arriving via a cyrber takedown of our electical grid AND our www AND our GPS sat network AND our comms (pretty much all of them relying on grid, www, sats all working together). It would be a relatively easy and effective comprehensive takedown of our ability to fight any war or survive as a society or even as a population. And it would take less than a day to prosecute. The results would be our annihilation (thirst, starvation, unchecked infectious disease, merciless internal violence, the works).
And there would be no way to defend or retaliate without those tech assets. And the nature of such a technology attack would not identify who did it to us, inhibiting our response decisions.
The only we would prevail is if we pre-empt. And who in charge has the gonads to do that?
I sense that we are screwed.
And we set ourselves up for it.
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coalcracker
Veteran Member
What I’ve found from my chess playing days is that the moment you figure that your opponent will never trade queen for queen, the moment you are certain that he would never do such a move, the moment you banish the thought…
could be strategic deception.
danielboon
TB Fanatic
I'm still thinking February
maybe. but i can't see them keeping 2000+ guys on those ships in the Baltics for very long. feb15 is about he last day they can get away with this before spring mud and rain...
Are you sure there are even any who are in charge that have gonads? That has yet to be proven IMHO.
MountainBiker
Veteran Member
Yep. Globalism was a windfall for the billionaire class and the mega corporations that have more money and power than most countries but at a loss for the bulk of the population. For the US their gain came at the loss of resiliency of our society as a whole via dependence on foreign powers for that which we need for day to day functionality of the economy and society. At the same time the holy grail of efficiency above all else has resulted in a near total reliance on fragile technology w/o manual backup systems or even basic redundancy. Of course the few got very rich by building that fragility.
How robust are the systems to keep nuke plant spent rod pools powered? What are the odds their plans included a general grid down scenario? We here can imagine it, but what are the odds the folks in charge did?
We have set ourselves up for it.
Seeker22
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Sadly, the Russians know our history better than we do. Not many Americans would know (or care) about what you just posted. When the majority of people feel this way, and ignorance of History is everywhere, it is easy to conquer. All of history is carried in those little devices people play games on but how it is told and from which slant for what purpose will slaughter many. Dangerous times we live in.
colonel holman
Veteran Member
But, but, we should be part of the greater world, for the greater good. It is selfish to be independent, even more so to be successful. That’s just not fair. There must be “equity”! (damn, I hate that term. So many do not realize its implications.)
CaryC
Has No Life - Lives on TB
IMHO
Someone has said 2 weeks as in something will pop by then.
I'm thinking a week due to the ultimatum by Russia for a response by next week.
But I'll take two weeks. So roughly Feb. 1.
If nothing war like or giving in to demands, happens in two weeks, it's all been talk, and bluster.
It's just not prudent to keep troops in a posture of near attack, or defending for long periods of time. They get bored and complacent, and readiness goes down hill fast. One would think you could go from staged to readiness, back to staged, and then readiness several times, but in the end it all starts to be games, and the soldiers just go through the motions.
Guys on here can speak to Reforger, but in war gaming standard times in the field was about 2 weeks. Stateside.
I would think Russian troops staged up near the front is already wearing thin. Going into action is a different story, but just stagging and sitting, maybe lots of money changing hands through poker games and dice.
Someone has said 2 weeks as in something will pop by then.
I'm thinking a week due to the ultimatum by Russia for a response by next week.
But I'll take two weeks. So roughly Feb. 1.
If nothing war like or giving in to demands, happens in two weeks, it's all been talk, and bluster.
It's just not prudent to keep troops in a posture of near attack, or defending for long periods of time. They get bored and complacent, and readiness goes down hill fast. One would think you could go from staged to readiness, back to staged, and then readiness several times, but in the end it all starts to be games, and the soldiers just go through the motions.
Guys on here can speak to Reforger, but in war gaming standard times in the field was about 2 weeks. Stateside.
I would think Russian troops staged up near the front is already wearing thin. Going into action is a different story, but just stagging and sitting, maybe lots of money changing hands through poker games and dice.
Seeker22
Has No Life - Lives on TB
All weasel words for brilliant but lazy controllers to make you willingly give up all you have. Most people have never come close to a Weasel. I used it intentionally. They are blood suckers, very sneaky, villanous creatures.
We fight a war of stealth and treachery and only a handful are winning. The rest give, and lose everything in the end. Be self sufficient. Be an Individual. Refusal is a weapon.
Vlad may conquer that in the end, but he will be forced to admit respect of the enemy he faces. And that is a Victory no one can ever take from those who cherish Freedom.
Optimus Prime
Senior Member
Be not troubled, for all these things MUST come to pass and yet it will not be the end. I hope all here are as prepared to be as comfortable as possible in a VERY uncomfortable world.
But probably not many are really aware of the game of chess going on overseas. There's little news about it. And biden isn't up to checkers, much less chess.Terrifying times. I worry so about the little ones. Babies, children during times of war are so traumatized. Let alone if it becomes nuclear. Good Lord
WTSR
Veteran Member
Won't the Mud stop Ukraine as well? Seems to me an Air Battle plays into Russia's strength, as long as they don't wander too far from home and their missile defense systems.
Zagdid
Veteran Member
Facebook bans account of Russian delegation to Vienna military security talks
The delegation only reposted statements by the Russian leaders and the Russian foreign ministry
tass.com
16 JAN, 08:29Updated at: 09:09
Facebook bans account of Russian delegation to Vienna military security talks
The delegation only reposted statements by the Russian leaders and the Russian foreign ministry
VIENNA, January 16. /TASS/. Facebook has blocked the official account of the Russian delegation to the military security and arms control talks in Vienna, Konstantin Gavrilov, who leads the Russia delegation, told TASS on Sunday.
"Facebook banned the delegation’s account on Friday, citing prohibited content as a reason," he said, adding that the delegation only reposted statements by the Russian leaders and the Russian foreign ministry.
According to Gavrilov, the Russian delegation plans to raise this problem within the OSCE structures.
The account of the Russian delegation to the Vienna talks was blocked by Twitter in February 2021.
CaryC
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Kremlin Alludes To 'Possibility' Of Weapons Deployment To Ukraine
In a weekend interview on CNN, Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman alluded to the possibility of deploying offensive weapons inside Ukrainian territory, following last week's series of three urgent meetings with NATO which Moscow deemed "unsuccessful".
Dmitry Peskov in his comments to Fareed Zakaria on his show "GPS" said that at this moment of "extremely dangerous" tensions with the West, he can't rule out the possibility of an offensive military deployment to Ukraine. However, he still emphasized there are no such plans currently, and prior repeat Russian insistence that there were never any Ukraine invasion plans.
Peskov's suggestion appeared to be that if Washington refused to take seriously Russia's demands of committing to no further NATO eastward expansion, and that if the US continues to get more deeply involved in Ukraine, drastic options would still be available from Russia's perspective.
In the CNN interview to be broadcast Sunday, Peskov described: "We have too much tension on the border [with Ukraine]. We have too much tension in this part of Europe. It drags [in] more problems automatically. It is extremely dangerous for our continent," he told the host of the ‘Fareed Zakaria GPS’ show.
Peskov decried the current atmosphere where the West is blowing off Russia's legitimate security concerns, and seems unwilling to compromise: “This is the reason we are insisting on receiving a direct response." He said that his side in good faith offered "extremely specific proposals" - presented to Washington and Brussels in the form of the draft 'security guarantees' earlier this month.
He stressed that while Moscow isn't at the moment "speaking about military action" - it remains that Russia is not "going to say that we will not deploy any offensive weapons on Ukraine’s territory."
However, it remains unclear the degree to which he posited this as 'an option'. Instead, it seems the remarks simply reflect that with no apparent willingness to compromise coming out of the West, the Kremlin can't in turn take any option of the table.
Of the more controversial statements by Peskov, Russian media clarified the following:
Meanwhile, elsewhere along Russia's European border regions...
Kremlin Alludes To 'Possibility' Of Weapons Deployment To Ukraine | ZeroHedge
In a weekend interview on CNN, Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman alluded to the possibility of deploying offensive weapons inside Ukrainian territory, following last week's series of three urgent meetings with NATO which Moscow deemed "unsuccessful".
Dmitry Peskov in his comments to Fareed Zakaria on his show "GPS" said that at this moment of "extremely dangerous" tensions with the West, he can't rule out the possibility of an offensive military deployment to Ukraine. However, he still emphasized there are no such plans currently, and prior repeat Russian insistence that there were never any Ukraine invasion plans.
Peskov's suggestion appeared to be that if Washington refused to take seriously Russia's demands of committing to no further NATO eastward expansion, and that if the US continues to get more deeply involved in Ukraine, drastic options would still be available from Russia's perspective.
In the CNN interview to be broadcast Sunday, Peskov described: "We have too much tension on the border [with Ukraine]. We have too much tension in this part of Europe. It drags [in] more problems automatically. It is extremely dangerous for our continent," he told the host of the ‘Fareed Zakaria GPS’ show.
Peskov decried the current atmosphere where the West is blowing off Russia's legitimate security concerns, and seems unwilling to compromise: “This is the reason we are insisting on receiving a direct response." He said that his side in good faith offered "extremely specific proposals" - presented to Washington and Brussels in the form of the draft 'security guarantees' earlier this month.
He stressed that while Moscow isn't at the moment "speaking about military action" - it remains that Russia is not "going to say that we will not deploy any offensive weapons on Ukraine’s territory."
However, it remains unclear the degree to which he posited this as 'an option'. Instead, it seems the remarks simply reflect that with no apparent willingness to compromise coming out of the West, the Kremlin can't in turn take any option of the table.
Of the more controversial statements by Peskov, Russian media clarified the following:
The likelihood remains that if the dialogue which began in Geneva, Brussels, and Vienna last week is not extended, the ongoing tit-for-tat threats could give way to increasing action on the ground, leading step-by-step to direct conflict in Eastern Ukraine and along the border.
Meanwhile, elsewhere along Russia's European border regions...
Kremlin Alludes To 'Possibility' Of Weapons Deployment To Ukraine | ZeroHedge
OldAndCrazy
Pureblood Forever
Facebook bans account of Russian delegation to Vienna military security talks
The delegation only reposted statements by the Russian leaders and the Russian foreign ministry
16 JAN, 08:29Updated at: 09:09
Facebook bans account of Russian delegation to Vienna military security talks
The delegation only reposted statements by the Russian leaders and the Russian foreign ministry
VIENNA, January 16. /TASS/. Facebook has blocked the official account of the Russian delegation to the military security and arms control talks in Vienna, Konstantin Gavrilov, who leads the Russia delegation, told TASS on Sunday.
"Facebook banned the delegation’s account on Friday, citing prohibited content as a reason," he said, adding that the delegation only reposted statements by the Russian leaders and the Russian foreign ministry.
According to Gavrilov, the Russian delegation plans to raise this problem within the OSCE structures.
The account of the Russian delegation to the Vienna talks was blocked by Twitter in February 2021.
I'm sure the Ruskies are cryin' in their vodka over this. Vlad needs to ban FB from Russia, F them.
phloydius
Veteran Member
Yes. However, it is a bit more complex than that. Mud limits movement of heavy equipment except on prepared roadways. So armor in a well prepared defensive position are a strength. Movement of offensive armor is a big weakness. It is extremely hard to overcome defensive armor positions without the use of offensive armor or aircraft. Well positioned defensive armor can be well protected with well positioned (and easily moved in mud) anti-aircraft systems (AA), creating kill boxes for aircraft. The easiest way to overcome AA systems is with (1) scouts, satellites, or intel that can pinpoint the location to be hit by very fast long range missile or artillery, or (2) communication disruptions. An entire engagement period of a fighter jet's attack on an armor position can be over in 30 seconds & without advance notice of air movements AA will fail to launch.
The Russian troops are massed near Ukraine, and everyone anticipates and is focused on action there or nearby.
An invasion of Ukraine would only bring the hostilities to a different level.
It might provide Russia a buffer of sorts, but would not ultimately solve the Russian's angst about encroachment from the west, and an occupation would be both bloody and costly.
Cyberwarfare and missiles don't worry about mud or bored troops.
I think that Russia, likely in coordination with China, have a broader agenda than Ukraine in dealing with the west's attempts at containment.
The Biden admin are clueless but ruthless fools, and I fear they are being played like a cheap violin by people who know history and are grounded in reality.
Our perceptions of invincibility in the US are possibly headed for a severe reality check.
An invasion of Ukraine would only bring the hostilities to a different level.
It might provide Russia a buffer of sorts, but would not ultimately solve the Russian's angst about encroachment from the west, and an occupation would be both bloody and costly.
Cyberwarfare and missiles don't worry about mud or bored troops.
I think that Russia, likely in coordination with China, have a broader agenda than Ukraine in dealing with the west's attempts at containment.
The Biden admin are clueless but ruthless fools, and I fear they are being played like a cheap violin by people who know history and are grounded in reality.
Our perceptions of invincibility in the US are possibly headed for a severe reality check.
northern watch
TB Fanatic
We already feel that Valad would be better than LGB.
Weapons of the weak: Russia and AI-driven asymmetric warfare (brookings.edu)
“Artificial intelligence is the future, not only for Russia, but for all humankind. It comes with colossal opportunities, but also threats that are difficult to predict. Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world.”[1] – Russian President Vladimir Putin, 2017.
The latter—the implications of AI for asymmetric political warfare—remains unexplored.[12] Yet, such nonconventional tools—cyber-attacks, disinformation campaigns, political influence, and illicit finance—have become a central tenet of Russia’s strategy toward the West and one with which Russia has been able to project power and influence beyond its immediate neighborhood. In particular, AI has the potential to hyperpower Russia’s use of disinformation—the intentional spread of false and misleading information for the purpose of influencing politics and societies. And unlike in the conventional military space, the United States and Europe are ill-equipped to respond to AI-driven asymmetric warfare (ADAW) in the information space.
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Kremlin Alludes To 'Possibility' Of Weapons Deployment To Ukraine
BY TYLER DURDEN
ZERO HEDGE
SUNDAY, JAN 16, 2022 - 11:00 AM
In a weekend interview on CNN, Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman alluded to the possibility of deploying offensive weapons inside Ukrainian territory, following last week's series of three urgent meetings with NATO which Moscow deemed "unsuccessful".
Dmitry Peskov in his comments to Fareed Zakaria on his show "GPS" said that at this moment of "extremely dangerous" tensions with the West, he can't rule out the possibility of an offensive military deployment to Ukraine. However, he still emphasized there are no such plans currently, and prior repeat Russian insistence that there were never any Ukraine invasion plans.
Peskov's suggestion appeared to be that if Washington refused to take seriously Russia's demands of committing to no further NATO eastward expansion, and that if the US continues to get more deeply involved in Ukraine, drastic options would still be available from Russia's perspective.
In the CNN interview to be broadcast Sunday, Peskov described: "We have too much tension on the border [with Ukraine]. We have too much tension in this part of Europe. It drags [in] more problems automatically. It is extremely dangerous for our continent," he told the host of the ‘Fareed Zakaria GPS’ show.
Peskov decried the current atmosphere where the West is blowing off Russia's legitimate security concerns, and seems unwilling to compromise: “This is the reason we are insisting on receiving a direct response." He said that his side in good faith offered "extremely specific proposals" - presented to Washington and Brussels in the form of the draft 'security guarantees' earlier this month.
He stressed that while Moscow isn't at the moment "speaking about military action" - it remains that Russia is not "going to say that we will not deploy any offensive weapons on Ukraine’s territory."
However, it remains unclear the degree to which he posited this as 'an option'. Instead, it seems the remarks simply reflect that with no apparent willingness to compromise coming out of the West, the Kremlin can't in turn take any option of the table.
Of the more controversial statements by Peskov, Russian media clarified the following:
The likelihood remains that if the dialogue which began in Geneva, Brussels, and Vienna last week is not extended, the ongoing tit-for-tat threats could give way to increasing action on the ground, leading step-by-step to direct conflict in Eastern Ukraine and along the border.
Meanwhile, elsewhere along Russia's European border regions...
Kremlin Alludes To 'Possibility' Of Weapons Deployment To Ukraine | ZeroHedge
BY TYLER DURDEN
ZERO HEDGE
SUNDAY, JAN 16, 2022 - 11:00 AM
In a weekend interview on CNN, Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman alluded to the possibility of deploying offensive weapons inside Ukrainian territory, following last week's series of three urgent meetings with NATO which Moscow deemed "unsuccessful".
Dmitry Peskov in his comments to Fareed Zakaria on his show "GPS" said that at this moment of "extremely dangerous" tensions with the West, he can't rule out the possibility of an offensive military deployment to Ukraine. However, he still emphasized there are no such plans currently, and prior repeat Russian insistence that there were never any Ukraine invasion plans.
Peskov's suggestion appeared to be that if Washington refused to take seriously Russia's demands of committing to no further NATO eastward expansion, and that if the US continues to get more deeply involved in Ukraine, drastic options would still be available from Russia's perspective.
In the CNN interview to be broadcast Sunday, Peskov described: "We have too much tension on the border [with Ukraine]. We have too much tension in this part of Europe. It drags [in] more problems automatically. It is extremely dangerous for our continent," he told the host of the ‘Fareed Zakaria GPS’ show.
Peskov decried the current atmosphere where the West is blowing off Russia's legitimate security concerns, and seems unwilling to compromise: “This is the reason we are insisting on receiving a direct response." He said that his side in good faith offered "extremely specific proposals" - presented to Washington and Brussels in the form of the draft 'security guarantees' earlier this month.
He stressed that while Moscow isn't at the moment "speaking about military action" - it remains that Russia is not "going to say that we will not deploy any offensive weapons on Ukraine’s territory."
However, it remains unclear the degree to which he posited this as 'an option'. Instead, it seems the remarks simply reflect that with no apparent willingness to compromise coming out of the West, the Kremlin can't in turn take any option of the table.
Of the more controversial statements by Peskov, Russian media clarified the following:
The likelihood remains that if the dialogue which began in Geneva, Brussels, and Vienna last week is not extended, the ongoing tit-for-tat threats could give way to increasing action on the ground, leading step-by-step to direct conflict in Eastern Ukraine and along the border.
Meanwhile, elsewhere along Russia's European border regions...
Kremlin Alludes To 'Possibility' Of Weapons Deployment To Ukraine | ZeroHedge
WTSR
Veteran Member
I believe a more likely scenario is they issue an ultimatum through the UN for NATO forces to leave Syria. They are there illegally anyways, so it would be an easy card to play. They could roll right up on the American Base and knock on the door, be interesting what Biden would do.
Chance
Veteran Member
Thank you. China has told us Taiwan is a decoy, their real target is America. With as bloodless a victory as they can get...releasing their worst, most frightening weapons first...they don't believe in working their way up the conventional weapons ladder to finally get to the biological weapons, tactical nukes, etc. They want our land and infrastructure.
And with Russia's hate of America...as you wrote...together their goal is to take down America. I believe Putin and Xi will attack America...maybe Putin's troops are to 'contain' NATO during this American attack.
It costs a lot of money to do what Russia is doing with their massing of troops on the Ukraine border. It's not sustainable for long...so I think it's soon. Lavarov said Russia has run out of patience. He's not joking.
And notice how are tv news isn't even covering this situation with the seriousness it should. This is on purpose.
We have been, are being set up to be attacked and invaded...the traitors in the Biden administration and the DoD, NiH, CDC have an evil agenda. All traitors.
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jward
passin' thru
Remember to bring your salt cellars; the phog o' war is definitely ramping up
X Soviet
@XSovietNews
United Russia MP Yevgeny Fedorov has proposed a pre-emptive nuclear strike against Nevada.
View: https://twitter.com/XSovietNews/status/1482747637757526026?s=20
X Soviet
@XSovietNews
United Russia MP Yevgeny Fedorov has proposed a pre-emptive nuclear strike against Nevada.
View: https://twitter.com/XSovietNews/status/1482747637757526026?s=20
jward
passin' thru
Insider Paper
@TheInsiderPaper
2h
JUST IN Russia hints that if its demands aren’t met, Moscow could take “military-technical” actions, including moving nuclear missiles closer to the U.S. - New York Times