Solar Grand Solar Minimum part deux

TxGal

Day by day
We have the big cold front coming in tomorrow, bringing much-needed rain and, unfortunately, really cold temps. Saturday morning we're supposed to hit 32, and several mornings next week, along with stiff, northern winds. Ick. Sure seems a little early for this.

Martinhouse, it's gonna get cold up your way!
 
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Martinhouse

Deceased
Yeah, I'm watching that! Today or tomorrow I'll have to insulate my outdoor water faucet. NOT looking forward to that but I think it's about the last of the really important outdoor chores left to get done. Also to finish securing the plastic covers on my greenhouse doors...I might have to ask for help with the upper parts of them, as I really should not be up on a ladder any more these days. Heck, just moving the little step-stool ladder around gets me totally out of breath!

Except for tonight, every night of my ten-day forecast is calling for temps below freezing, and a couple of those down to mid-twenties! Brrr! I sure don't want any rain with THAT!
 
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Publius

TB Fanatic
We have been getting a few warm days in a row then getting a few cold days then back to warm again.
The temperature swings are crazy going from day time 70 or 65 to night time 50 to 30 degrees at night and having quite a few nights in the mid to lower 30's and having to fire up the wood stove late in the evening.
I see this cold front that is forecast to move in over the eastern part of the country and don't know what to expect as to how Cold it will get but some talk of temps in the 20's.
 

summerthyme

Administrator
_______________
We have been getting a few warm days in a row then getting a few cold days then back to warm again.
The temperature swings are crazy going from day time 70 or 65 to night time 50 to 30 degrees at night and having quite a few nights in the mid to lower 30's and having to fire up the wood stove late in the evening.
I see this cold front that is forecast to move in over the eastern part of the country and don't know what to expect as to how Cold it will get but some talk of temps in the 20's.
That's what we refer to as "honeybee killing weather". Bees just don't tolerate massive temperature swings well at all. We're going to move our "volunteer" hive (a swarm moved in in the first week of July) into the unheated pavilion, wu8ch holds a bit more even temps than out in the sun and wind. We'll see...

Summerthyme
 

alpha

Veteran Member
I don't know if it's my machine or a new type of formatting that I'm not familiar with but... there ARE pictures hiding on the page that you have to click on to make them appear. :screw:
PART 1
Electroverse

image-12-e1668164878747.png

Extreme Weather

Century-Old Low Temperature Records Continue To Tumble Across Canada; Snowfall Benchmarks Busted In Nevada (And Elsewhere); + Digitized Proles​

November 11, 2022 Cap Allon

Century-Old Low Temperature Records Continue To Tumble Across Canada

Arctic air has settled over much of Canada this week, felling a host of cold records across Alberta, B.C. and Sask.:


Alberta

Nine record lows were broken in Alberta Thursday morning, adding to the 33 set Wednesday.
Serving as two examples, the Edmonton region, the Stony Plain weather station bottomed out at -23.8C, busting the old record of -21C set in 1966 (solar minimum of cycle 19); while Rocky Mountain House was one of the province’s coldest spots, with Thursday’s -28.9C besting the previous benchmark of -26.7C from 1986 (solar minimum of cycle 21) .
Also worth noting –and not included in the list of record lows below, which comes courtesy of Environment and Climate Change Canada– the city of Edmonton logged -21C this week, making it the metropolitan area’s earliest sub -20C during the first 10 days of November since 1991.
Sundre Area
  • New record of -28.1
  • Old record of -26.9 set in 2019
  • Records in this area have been kept since 1993

Stony Plain Area
  • New record of -23.8
  • Old record of -21.0 set in 1985
  • Records in this area have been kept since 1966

Rocky Mountain House Area
  • New record of -28.9
  • Old record of -26.7 set in 1986
  • Records in this area have been kept since 1915

Barrhead Area
  • New record of -27.8
  • Old record of -27.2 set in 1940
  • Records in this area have been kept since 1912

Whitecourt Area
  • New record of -24.4
  • Old record of -21.8 set in 2019
  • Records in this area have been kept since 1942

Brooks Area
  • New record of -27.2
  • Old record of -26.0 set in 2019
  • Records in this area have been kept since 1912

Drumheller Area
  • New record of -25.0
  • Old record of -23.8 set in 2019
  • Records in this area have been kept since 1923

Esther Area
  • New record of -28.4
  • Old record of -27.0 set in 1986
  • Records in this area have been kept since 1985

Highvale Area
  • New record of -24.1
  • Old record of -21.0 set in 1986
  • Records in this area have been kept since 1977


B.C.

Thirteen temperature records were toppled –often slain– across B.C. on Wednesday (more fell on Thursday but I have yet to compile the list).
This early onset of polar cold is due, according to Global Okanagan meteorologist Peter Quinlan, to an arctic high-pressure system parked over the Rockies.
“(It) is funneling in the frigid air, pushing an arctic front south of the area,” explained Quinlan. “The result has been record-breaking cold over the B.C. Interior.”
The oldest record broken was in Salmon Arm, which busted the low set more than a century ago, in 1911 (solar minimum of cycle 14–during The Centennial Minimum).
According to Environment Canada records, it seems that the previous comparable cold snap this early in the season was back in 1986 (again, solar min of cycle 21); at least, that’s when the majority of the previous temperature records were set.
I won’t bother listing all 13 fallen benchmarks, just a select few (it’s bloody cold: you get the idea):

Blue River
  • New record of -21 C
  • Old record of -15.3 C set in 1986

Burns Lake Area
  • New record of -19.2 C
  • Old record of -19 C set in 1986

Clearwater Area
  • New record of -13.6 C
  • Old record of -13.5 C set in 1986

Dawson Creek Area
  • New record of -29.7 C
  • Old record of -28.9 C set in 1986

Mackenzie Area
  • New record of -26.6 C
  • Old record of -23.0 C set in 1986

Sparwood Area
  • New record of -21.4 C
  • Old record of -20.3 C set in 1986

Squamish Area
  • New record of -3.8 C
  • Old record of -2.5 C set in 1986

Whistler Area
  • New record of -11.3 C
  • Old record of -10.5 C set in 1986


Saskatchewan

Saskatchewan is also suffering its first brutal Arctic outbreak of the 2022-2023 season, setting four temperature records broken, and tying another, Thursday morning.
Nipawin dropped to -29.9C, breaking its old record by a full degree; Outlook and Rosetown usurped their old marks by nearly two degrees, achieving -26.3C and -29C, respectively; while Kindersley hit -28.9C. Also, Saskatoon tied its old record of -28.9C.
All of the previous records were set in or before 1945, with the oldest being Saskatoon’s tie, set in 1902 (The Centennial Minimum).
A similar freeze is gripping the province as I type (into Friday morning local time). Lows have once again dropped to between -25C and -30C, with the wind chill making it feel even colder. Frostbite will be possible in just minutes, ECCC has warned.
The cold is highly unusual for this time of year.
Kindersley and Rosetown’s high of -18C on Wednesday, for example, was some 20C below normal.
The fiercest chills are forecast to ease through the weekend, but they look set to return next week with added complication snow. Stay tuned for updates.


Snowfall Benchmarks Busted In Nevada…

Snow settled over swathes of northern Nevada this week, breaking a 102-year-old snowfall record in the city of Elko.
According to the National Weather Service (see Tweet below), Elko received an unprecedented 3.3 inches of snow on Nov 8, enough to bust the previous record of 2 inches, set back in 1920 (near the end of The Centennial Minimum).





NWS Elko
@NWSElko

Both Elko and Ely set daily precipitation records on 11/08/2022. Elko smashed a 102 year old snowfall record with 3.3” of snow, breaking the old mark of 2.0” set back in 1920. Ely set a new rainfall record with 0.87” of rain, breaking the old mark of 0.52” set in 2010. #nvwx https://t.co/BCJFW8TACt


Image

4:55 AM · Nov 9, 2022
Snowfall in Spring Creek –located some 15 miles southeast of Elko– was dumping down on Nov 9:





Heather Tierney
@Htierney61

Snowing nicely in Spring Creek, Nevada right now. ⁦@NWSElkohttps://t.co/GRBqoohiiP


Image

7:04 PM · Nov 9, 2022
 

TxGal

Day by day
Martinhouse, are you doing okay up there?

We woke up to 26 this morning, but fortunately inside is 67 and the heat never came on. I credit the heavy thermal curtains with extra fleece inserts with helping keep things warmer. Having said that, there's warm 67 and chilly 67, and this is definitely chilly. I'm sitting here with two heavy layers on, and a fuzzy neck wrap. I'm waiting until the sun warms things to 33 before I go out and take care of the cattle, chickens, and ducks. The cattle still don't have their winter coat, just a bit of fuzz coming in on their topline. Poultry all has extra bedding now.

We had a heavy frost, so the 6ft tall Juliet cherry tomato plant we had growing should be done now. Hopefully the Fall potato garden holds strong. And now the north wind is picking up...yuck.

The older I get, the more I hate winter!
 

psychgirl

Has No Life - Lives on TB
That's what we refer to as "honeybee killing weather". Bees just don't tolerate massive temperature swings well at all. We're going to move our "volunteer" hive (a swarm moved in in the first week of July) into the unheated pavilion, wu8ch holds a bit more even temps than out in the sun and wind. We'll see...

Summerthyme
That makes me so sad. I hope they all live!
Will you come back to report on how the bees are doing?
 

psychgirl

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Digger, thanks for that report. I think we, after all, did not get down to 25, as predicted,

It is always colder where I am, somewhat NE of Dover, but the cats' water bowl was not frozen over, and that tells me we likely didn't get much below 30 right here.
I’m late to catch up with the thread. I love weather talk!
So, are you up in Dover, Delaware then?
 

psychgirl

Has No Life - Lives on TB
A couple years ago, I made this kind of blanket for each person in my family. My knees were destroyed from crawling around on the tile floor. I found that you have to cut a square out of each corner, then cut the fringe all around the edges.
Several year’s ago my sister got on the tie fleece blanket binge and made them for family.
I simply loved mine! It is sort of Christmasy, dark reds, cream colors, and Cardinals all over it.
It’s lost a lot of the softness though but I still drag it out
Can never have too many fuzzy throw blankets!! They’re my weakness!
 

Martinhouse

Deceased
psychgirl and TxGal, I am well outside of a little whistlestop called Dover, Arkansas!

Computer says 31 here right now, but I only woke half an hour ago, so I don't know what our lowest temp was this morning. I think it'll be getting a lot chillier than this through the next week or more.

Ooops, sorry about the bold type, my eyes haven't cleared yet and I don't feel like fixing it.
 

psychgirl

Has No Life - Lives on TB
psychgirl and TxGal, I am well outside of a little whistlestop called Dover, Arkansas!

Computer says 31 here right now, but I only woke half an hour ago, so I don't know what our lowest temp was this morning. I think it'll be getting a lot chillier than this through the next week or more.

Ooops, sorry about the bold type, my eyes haven't cleared yet and I don't feel like fixing it.
Ohhh ok!
I thought you were somewhere remote, for some reason. I’m sorry about your eyes! I’m also five years behind…sighs**….

Anyway, i do better at staying current with the thread. I’m in central Indiana

We got hit with early temp plunge and snow yesterday!!
It’s been a glorious fall; we went from 70d days to 31d overnight.
And we’re supposed to get another system on Tuesday, maybe bigger snow totals.

I could swear there was a good three inches on my car last night. But I think they have us officially at two inches of snow.

Winter is here. Early.
 

Martinhouse

Deceased
Right about now I should write that we've had a nice, long warm autumn so I really can't complain now that it's finally gotten colder.

But I AM complaining and I will be complaining probably until May, because I HATE WINTER!!!!!

I moved here from Minnesota because I was tired of being cold all the time. And since the first year I lived here (1978-1979) I have griped all winter every winter that I didn't move far enough south!

P.S - Since I made myself several fleece blankets, I no longer have to heat my bedroom. And using one of them as a mattress pad keeps me from having to use my non-existent body heat to warm up the whole mattress every night when I first crawl into bed.
 
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TxGal

Day by day
Well, my gosh, we hit 43! Thank heavens the sun is out. I was right, we had a heavy frost along with our temps in the 20s, and the tomato plant is toast. Still, any tomatoes that are even slightly ripe will go to the chickens, they love them. We made it all summer with that Juliet, despite the drought. Can't complain much.

Martinhouse, that's a great idea to use the fleece on your mattress, never thought about that. I have plenty of fleece pieces long enough, and they'll do. Have several of the fleece blankets, too, they're so warm.

But, I still hate winter.
 

Martinhouse

Deceased
TxGal, my fleece "mattress pad" is one of the two-layer fleece blankets I made and found it too gaudy to feel comfortable using it. (It was that colorful fleece pattern of the giant puzzle pieces, with a bright golden yellow on the back. Much more suitable for children, I suppose.)

Anyway, this blanket is folded in four, so it's really several layers thick. I have to say that I NEVER feel that cold mattress under me! I'm thinking I may soon make myself a couple of fleece pillowcases. Even that pillow feels cold at first in an unheated bedroom in north central Arkansas!

Lately I'm longing for our 85-90 degree days and our 70-75 degree nights. Wonder if I'll even live long enough to see those again? Heck, this week, it's not even getting hot enough for me in the greenhouse!

I'll probably be the first person to ever freeze in Hell for all eternity in stead of burning!
 
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TxGal

Day by day
I'm glad I have a lot of fleece tucked away from a big sale about 7 years ago. I need to pull it and and see what I can do with it, you've given me a lot of ideas!

More rain on the way for us tomorrow, all day long. Tomato plant is toast, as expected. What surprised me is that the freeze was hard enough to zap all my potato plants. I'll have to wait and see if they come back. We don't usually get this hard a freeze this early here.
 

alpha

Veteran Member
Electroverse

FhRLQmoWIAAPDKd-e1668416839896.jpg

Extreme Weather

Antarctica’s Latest -60C (-76F) Reading Ever Recorded; NOAA: ‘Cold Pool’ Returns In Bering Sea; + Sun​

November 14, 2022 Cap Allon

Antarctica’s Latest -60C (-76F) Reading Ever Recorded

After logging its coldest ‘coreless winter’ (April-Sept) on record in 2021, and routinely suffering colder-than-average months ever since, Antarctica is at it yet again.
Defying AGW Party orders, the mercury across Antarctica has been holding astonishingly low in recent years, and 2022 is proving no different.
“For the second day, Concordia measured a new cold record,” writes Stefano Di Battista on Twitter, a journalist who regularly follows the goings-on at the ‘bottom of the world’: “This fact is extraordinary.”
On Nov 10, the Italian-French station Concordia, located 3,200 meters (10,500 feet) above sea level in the middle of Dome C, on the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, touched -59.7C (-75.5F). This comfortably usurped the previous record for the day (the -57C (-70.6F) set just last year), and also, more impressively, it turns out that Antarctica has never before been this cold so late into the season.
Moreover, just as day later the station sank even colder, reaching a minimum of -60.2C (-76.4F) on Nov 11. This was the latest sub -60C registered in Antarctica since at least 1978, when records began–but likely far longer, states Battista in a thread:





Stefano Di Battista
@pinturicchio_60

This fact is extraordinary For the second day Concordia measured a new cold record On November 11 the minimum reached -60.2 °C It is the most delayed exceeding of the -60 °C threshold in Antarctica since 1978, but probably for as long as there are records https://t.co/jWamibODDo
3:46 AM · Nov 12, 2022
For more:

In these Days of “Catastrophic Global Warming,” the South Pole just suffered its Coldest ‘Winter’ in Recorded History




With an average temperature of -61.1C (-78F), the South Pole has just logged its coldest 6-month spell ever recorded (April-Sept).

NOAA: ‘Cold Pool’ Returns In Bering Sea

Traversing north, to the Arctic region — anomalous chills have been transpiring here, too.

The Bering Sea’s cold pool, a critical part of the seafloor ecosystem, had shrunk in recent years. This, predictably, sent those jittery, coffee-spitting climate alarmists-types into full-blown panic mode.

However, with some patience and a little trust in Earth’s naturally waxing-and-waning climate system, the pool is now returning to multidecadal norms, as shown by NOAA’s bottom trawl survey which gathers temperature readings via a trawl net dropped to the bottom 6 to 10 feet of the water column.

Panic over.

Duane Stevenson, senior lead for the Bering Sea bottom trawl survey for NOAA Fisheries, presented the results in a Strait Science presentation in early November: “This year, we had a relatively cold pool of water in the northern Bering Sea and actually extending south of St. Matthew Island onto the central part of the Bering Sea shelf,” he said.

“This is interesting, because over the past several years, we haven’t really seen much of a cold pool, certainly not extending down into the eastern Bering Sea survey area. This year, we definitely saw more of a cold pool than we have in recent years.”

These colder-than-average conditions manifested above the surface, too. The coldest July airmass of the past 70 years bloew through the Bering Strait this summer, bringing rare –and at times unprecedented– summer snow to the Diomede islands, Ear Mountain near Shishmaref and the mountains near Dexter and Banner Creek, too.

For more:


When seasonal sea ice melts, very cold water sinks, creating a persistently frigid layer at the seafloor that tends to stay under 2C (35.6F) throughout the majority of the summer. It is believed that this cold pool acts as a barrier that keeps some species from crossing into the eastern Bering Sea shelf and northward toward the Bering Strait.

But declining sea ice in and around the Bering Sea was said to be disrupting this phenomenon.

“2019 was the year that we saw the smallest cold pool of any year that we’ve done these surveys,” added Stevenson. “However, we saw a little bit more cold water in 2021, and even more so in 2022 … it looks like temperatures are moving back to the long-term mean.”

As a result, Stevenson reported that species showed encouraging signs that they might be increasing in numbers in the northern Bering Sea. Saffron cod, for example, also called tomcod, seems to be bouncing back after a few bad years. Their biomass was estimated to be 27,738 metric tons this year—a whopping 178% increase estimated last summer.

The researchers saw a similar pattern with Arctic cod, too: “It looks like the colder water is allowing them to come back into the Northern Bering Sea,” said Stevenson. The biomass of Arctic cod was estimated to be 387 metric tons, up 367% from 2021.

Similarly with blue king crabs, the researchers only recorded about 50 individuals last year, but collected about 150 this year.

The numbers are moving in the right direction, Stevenson concluded.


Sun

A fast-moving stream of solar wind is expected to hit Earth’s magnetic field on Nov 19 or 20.

It is flowing from an emerging hole in the sun’s atmosphere:



High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras at the end of this week, but other than that solar activity remains relatively low:



Sunspot AR3141 has a ‘beta-gamma’ magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares [SDO/HMI].


The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).


Any way you can, help me spread the message so others can survive and thrive in the coming times.



 

alpha

Veteran Member
Electroverse

snow-early-e1668506673369.jpg
Extreme Weather

Record-Breaking Freeze To Slam The United States; Northern Hemisphere Snow Mass Tracking Above 1982-2012 Average (And Climbing); + Greenland Snow/Ice Above 1981-2010 Norms​

November 15, 2022 Cap Allon

Record-Breaking Freeze To Slam The United States

An early-season Arctic Outbreak is sending temperatures crashing to January-like levels across the US — a staggering 25-35 degrees Fahrenheit below the average.
Residents from Minneapolis to Chicago, St. Louis and Oklahoma City are among those in the firing line as a shot of polar air, colder than what is considered “normal” for mid-January, engulfs the majority of the CONUS.
Freezing lows and substantial snows have already felled many benchmarks this week (with hundreds toppled last month), but meteorologists, including those at AccuWeather, are warning that the coldest conditions are yet to come.
“Many places in the Plains and Midwest will experience high temperatures 10F-or-more below what a typical mid-January day would be,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg said, who provides the below graphic:


[AccuWeather]

And by Friday, the latest GFS run (shown below) has that pocket of “warm air” also being pushed out:


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Nov 16 – Nov 20 [tropicaltidbits.com].

In Chicago, for example, daytime highs are forecast hold in the 20s on Friday, while a normal mid-Jan high is 31F.
Also –and as depicted above– locations farther south will not be spared from Old Man Winter’s early arrival, either. In Oklahoma City, following a wintry hit snow at the beginning of the week, temperatures will close out Friday in the upper 30s — well below the city’s lowest average high during the winter, which is in the upper 40s.


[AccuWeather]

Ranking this November cold wave vs those of year’s gone by, 2022’s is on course to be a biggie, one that will likely topple hundreds of low temperature records through Sunday, at least, adding to the hundreds that were toppled in mid/late-October:


AccuWeather’s Lundberg attributes this early-season freeze to an area of high pressure over Alaska–which sounds about right… cold is natural, of course, whereas those summer heatwaves –now a distant memory– were anthropogenic and dangerous.
This week’s powerful Arctic Outbreak will shift east over the next few days, and will see Northeastern residents joining in the Jan-like shivers. Also by then, a potentially record-breaking lake-effect snow event should be in full swing over the Great Lakes:


GFS Total Snowfall (inches) Nov 14 – Nov 20 [tropicaltidbits.com].


Northern Hemisphere Snow Mass Tracking Above 1982-2012 Average (And Climbing)

The snow clipping North America this week will only further bolster the Northern Hemisphere’s ‘Total Snow Mass’ readings, which –as visualized below– are already advancing the trend of growth witnessed over the past 5-or-so years.
Looking at the Finnish Meteorological Institute’s (FMI) chart, we see that NH snow mass took a notable turn up as per the latest data point (Nov 11), building on what has already been an above-average opening to a snow season:



The Rutgers Global Snow Lab gives us the Daily Snow Extent (for Nov 13).
It shows that practically all of Russia and Canada, as well as sizable swathes of Mongolia, Kazakhstan, China and the Lower 48, are currently blanketed by early-season snowfall, which, again, is contrary to AGW Party narrative of forever fire and brimstone.


[RGSL]


Greenland Snow/Ice Above 1981-2010 Norms

The Greenland ice sheet has been faring increasingly well in recent years — media tizzies of ‘mass ice loss’ and ‘imminent doom’ are wildly unfounded.
While it is true that the world’s largest island lost mass from around 1995 to 2012, that trend of loss has now reversed, and since 2016, a sharp uptick in the Surface Mass Balance (SMB) –a calculation to determine the ‘health’ of a glacier– has been detected.
More on that here:


And most recently, the 2022-23 season appears to be continuing that trend, routinely posting impressive daily totals across the ice sheet since the season officially commenced on September 1:


[DMI]

Moreover, and as shown below, the season’s Acc. SMB is tracking not only above above the 1981-2010 mean but also the deviations, too; Greenland is on course to log yet another above average season, perhaps even a record-breaking one:


[DMI]

If you want proof of mainstream media lies then you need look no further than their reporting of the Greenland ice sheet.
The above data outlines the reality, yet here is how the Western corporate media –whose job it is to instill fear and forward agendas, not to impart truth– has been misinforming the masses:
“Phenomenally high rates of melting have been discovered at the base of the Greenland Ice Sheet”, reported Cambridge Independent; “Melting Ice Sheet in Greenland Becomes the Largest Contributor to Global Sea Level Rise”, reads a Nature World News headline from Feb, 2022; and “Thinning Greenland Ice Sheet May Mean More Sea Level Rise” stated France 24 just last week.
The science, in all fields, has been hijacked by vested interests; that quote from Dr. Paul Reiter again rings true: “As far as the science being ‘settled,’ I think that is an obscenity. The fact is the science is being distorted by people who are not scientists.”

Grand Solar Minimum 101: The Future Looks Cold




The Sun is at its weakest state in more than a century, and the impacts on Earth’s weather/climate are unfolding before our eyes, whether we know it or not…


The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).
 

alpha

Veteran Member
Electroverse

grid-failure-winter-e1668598856190.jpg

Articles
Crop Loss Extreme Weather

California’s Quiet Wildfire Season; Snowfall Records Fall Across US; Monthly Low Temp Benchmarks Tumble Down Under As Rare Spring Flakes Hit Tasmania; Villages Cut Off As Heavy Snow Hits Kashmir; + Europe’s Food Prices Soar​

November 16, 2022 Cap Allon

California’s Quiet Wildfire Season

California is enjoying its quietest wildfires in years, attributable, in part, to summer rain and cooler weather — natural cycles.
Fires have swept through 363,000 acres across the Golden State, which is a fraction of recent years.
The AGW Party are still peddling the fear, though: Max Molritz, a wildfire specialist with University of California Cooperative Extension, warns that if the state doesn’t see much precipitation over the next few months, it will continue to be at risk.
“The plants themselves are still under pretty extreme water stress, and they’re still potentially quite flammable, even if it’s cold,” said Moritz, which I’m sure is a frustrating message for the AGW Party to promote — wildfires aren’t linked to temperature.
This year, summer rains prevented many fires from taking hold, including ‘the Mosquito Fire’ which ignited early-September in Placer and El Dorado countries. Fear-driven climate models had predicted the fire would burn all the way to North Lake Tahoe, but then rains came to Northern California and doused the fire and drenched the surrounding vegetation.
“It could have been a pretty terrible fire season except that we had rain in mid-September,” said a straw-clutching Michael Wara, director of the climate and energy policy program at Stanford University. That late-summer storm decreased the wildfire risk for several weeks, and was then chased by yet more precipitation in October. and now November.


Snowfall Records Fall Across US

Broken snowfall records are mounting as a powerful Arctic Outbreak descends on the Lower 48.
Lebanon, Indiana –for example– recently received a daily snow total of 2.7 inches, its highest for the date since 1991.
A myriad of snow resorts are opening earlier than schedule, too, following historic early-season dumpings. Big Sky Resort in Montana is one such area, probably the most recent, though there are many, many others — California’s Mammoth Mountain is already enjoying one of its snowiest Novembers in decades, and we’re barely halfway through the month,
While in Wichita, Kansas, the 0.4 inches that settled Monday may not sound like a lot, but it was enough to bust a 135-year-old snowfall record, surpassing the 0.3 inches set on Nov 14, 1929 in weather books dating all the way back to 1888.
Record cold accompanied the record Wichita snow — a frigid 9F was logged on Tues, Nov 15, usurping the 10F set in 1955.
“We are starting to get into winter,” NWS meteorologist Eric Metzger helpfully pointed out, “usually we don’t get this cold this early, usually you have to wait to December,” he added, also pointing out that the cold and snow is forecast to hang around through the weekend, at least.
As discussed in previous articles, the vast majority of the CONUS is in the midst of a full-blown taste of winter:


Monthly Low Temp Benchmarks Tumble Down Under As Rare Spring Flakes Clip Tasmania

Following what was a colder-than-average winter –record-breaking cold for the likes of Brisbane– spring is continuing that cooling trend. Even with summer around the corner, blasts of polar cold are still hitting the Australian continent.
A string of monthly low temperature records have been broken this week, slain in some cases. The out-of-season freeze has really been quite something, felling ‘November lowest maximum temperatures’ in the likes Liawenee, Portland, Grove, Tunnack, Breakwater and Strathalbyn, to name just six.
Also noteworthy, of those six, three broke records set earlier this month, serving as further evidence that Australia’s chills are persistent, not a one-off freeze events that the AGW Party can pass off as ‘a freak weather event’.


A handful of Australia’s busted monthly low temperature records.

The accompanying mid-November snow has also been noteworthy.
Snow settled at Vinces Saddle on the Huon Highway, Tasmania on Tuesday — about 200 meters (650 feet) lower than the warm-mongering BoM had initially forecast. Parts of kunanyi/Mt Wellington also experienced substantial spring snowfall.
Bureau of Meteorology duty forecaster Michael Conway said more snow is possible in elevated parts, including the south and south-east, lower east coast, southern midlands and central plateau.


According to the BoM, another record-challenging cold front is expected next week.

The GFS is in agreement:


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Nov 16 – Nov 22 [tropicaltidbits.com].


Villages Cut Off As Heavy Snow Hits Kashmir

Major highways are closed and many towns and villages have been cut-off due to heavy overnight snowfall in Jammu and Kashmir, India. Authorities have also closed schools due to the early hit of winter.

The infamous Mughal Road, an alternative link between the Jammu region and Kashmir’s Shopian district, was closed due to heavy snow at Pir Ki Gali and the surrounding area. The Bandipora-Gurez road was also shut.

Early season snowfall has been reported in many locales, including Handwara, Kralpora, Pazipora and Tangdhar, Kupwara, Tangmarg, and Khansahib–often times far earlier than normal, according to local officials.


Heavy snow in Kashmir cuts off many remote districts.


The recent storm delivered 6 inches of snow to Gulmarg, more than a foot to Gurez and Machil, and 2 feet to the Koksar district, with the latter cut off from the rest of the state after accumulations blocked the Atal Tunnel on the Manali-Leh highway.

The heavy snowfall has resulted in many remote towns and villages being completely cut off from the outside world.

Not helping matters, the 270km-long Jammu-Srinagar highway –the only all-weather road linking Kashmir with the rest of the country– has been also closed due to feet of accumulating snow.


Snow-clad village after heavy snowfall hit Lahaul and Spiti this week [Jai Kumar].


The upper Manali area covered in snowfall on Monday.

Europe’s Food Prices Soar

Rising energy prices and rolling blackouts are bad enough, but it’s food insecurity, i.e. rising costs and shortages, that will break the camels back, the straw that sees the masses willingly walk into this looming technocratic and totalitarian future.

Europe is having a torrid time of it; all self-inflicted, but still, the people didn’t vote for this demolition.

And this is a message I want those in the future, looking back on this time, to know: “Why did they believe such claptrap about the climate etc.? … Why did they willfully allow their energy and food security and ultimately their freedoms be stripped from them?”.

Well, the majority of us knew full-well it was nonsense, but the opposition, ‘the establishment’, had gained a monopoly on the ‘truth’ and it became increasingly difficult for the average Joe to navigate the mire of obfuscation and deception, to find which way was up.

The elites bought governments, the media and the education systems; they took the farmland and the water rights from us; they told us that unless we accepted stark reductions in living standards life on planet Earth would cease to exist. And, frustratingly, a noisy minority fell for it, pushed this narrative on others, and virtue-signaled us all into socialism, digital slavery and destruction.

That’s what happened. Forget the history books. We had no say in their writing. The majority of us weren’t stupid or gullible, we were simply overpowered, outplayed. Most of us knew they were lying, and they knew we knew they were lying, yet they still successfully pushed through their society-wrecking policies via their planted politicians, journalists and brainwashed activists, and they took us down.

Market prices of fresh produce have shot to record highs in Bulgaria, with tomatoes up by 19%, cucumbers by 6.1%, green peppers up by 10.1%, potatoes by 4.5%, and apples by 4%. While in Spain, record rises were posted last month, keeping the cost of living crippling high. Spain’s overall food prices climbed 15.4% from a year earlier, the biggest increase since the statistical series began, with the cost of fresh vegetables jumping by 25.7%, eggs up 25.5%, milk up 25% and grains up 22.1%.

Food prices are rising globally, of course, not just in Europe.

This is unsustainable, but this is also the point.

Rising food prices will be the story throughout 2023 as the fertilizer and herbicide/pesticide ‘shortages’ impact yields and as farmland intentionally sits barren in the name of ‘saving the planet from the ravages of CO2’.


Then the rationing will come, quickly followed by the realization that those empty shelves aren’t going to be restocked. Next comes blind panic, in tandem with social unrest, riots and then, finally, and only at the pit of despair, they will implement the new monetary system, i.e. CBDCs and Digital IDs. This roll-out will be sold as our savior, but in actual fact it will strip us of the few freedoms we have left. These tools will enslave us indefinitely, digitally, and the unprepared will have no choice but to comply. By that point, however, the masses will likely be thankful for them — they have long been trained to pick convenience over freedom.

Related

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It Is Climate Zealotry, Rather Than Climate Change, That Is Destroying The WorldSeptember 7, 2022In "Articles"
No Scientific Consensus On A Warming Arctic And Extreme WeatherNovember 3, 2022In "Articles"
 

Martinhouse

Deceased
I've been wondering about him, too, TxGal. I figured he might be sick with some seasonal crud or maybe at an out-of-town conference or convention, or maybe even working like mad finalizing some preps. I do hope to hear from him soon.
-----
I finally got enough mess cleaned up so that I feel safe using my space heater here in the kitchen. I can only do a few things each day so I've mostly been sitting bundled up reading at the computer or with books, but it's been pretty miserable. Am looking forward to turning on my new space heater a little later this afternoon. Right now it's running out in the greenhouse so the new smell can cook off of it before I run it here in the house. And the sun is finally shining enough to warm the greenhouse so I might find enough energy to do a few small chores out there, later, too.

Oh, how I HATE WINTER!!!!!
 

TxGal

Day by day
Martinhouse, and all, I did a search on him as best possible on the internet. Apparently a lot of his regular listeners are wondering the same thing.

We're in the low 40s all this week, I believe, with a strong northerly breeze so it's downright chilly all the time. Next week looks to warm up some, thank heavens.
 

Martinhouse

Deceased
Thanks, for letting us know, TxGal. Sure hope we hear something about him soon!
-----
My fridge broke a couple of years ago and I never replaced it. It's been so chilly in my house the last several days that I haven't needed to change out the Blue-Ice paks in my big Igloo cooler! In a few minutes here, I'll be bringing in my new little space heater. Any heat at all will feel like heaven after this last week or two!
 

alpha

Veteran Member
Electroverse

image-23-e1668682581195.png

Articles
Extreme Weather

Yesterday Was America’s Snowiest Nov 16 On Record; “Extraordinary” And “Paralyzing” Lake Effect Snow Set To Pound The Northeast; Energy Crisis Update; + Siberia Plunges To -47.8C (-54F)​

November 17, 2022 Cap Allon

Yesterday Was America’s Snowiest Nov 16 On Record

A record for snow extent in the contiguous U.S. was broken yesterday (Wed, Nov 16). The dataset only extends back 2-decades, but still, in that time the United States has never logged a snowier November 16.
The National Snow Analysis from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center shows that a whopping 41.1% of the CONUS had snow on the ground Wednesday morning, besting the previous record of 37% set in 2014.
For reference, the average Nov 16 snow extent for the 20-year period is 14.8% (which includes the 41.1% this year).



Looking at this official dataset –and discarding AGW Party delusions of ever-increasing temperatures = ever-decreasing snow– snowfall extent has been increasing over the past 20 years: For the first 10 years (that’s 2003-2012), the United State’s average snow extent on Nov 16 was 12.2%, but for the last 10 years (that’s 2013-2022) the average has climbed to 16.3%.
Facts don’t lie; but they do hurt agendas.


“Extraordinary” And “Paralyzing” Lake Effect Snow Set To Pound The Northeast

Yet more snow is on course to bury portions of the North American continent starting today, Thursday.
Western New York, for example, which gets more snow than almost any other corner of the U.S., is about to get pummeled by a winter storm “that is extraordinary — even by the region’s own standards,” reports bloomberg.com.
Cold air sweeping across Lake Erie and Lake Ontario is forecast to drop 3 feet of snow near Buffalo, with some isolated spots expecting more that 4 feet — from late Wednesday to Sunday, reads a recent NSW warning.
Such staggering totals would surpass the current three-day record in Buffalo — the 3.2 feet set during the November of 2000.; while snow records in Lansing (2.0″ set in 1955); Charlotte (3.0″ from 2014) and Jackson (1.1″ set in 1989) are just another three on course to be “absolutely crushed,” according to fox47news.com.
“This will be the start of a prolonged lake-effect snow event which will likely include paralyzing snowfall for the Buffalo and Watertown areas late this week through the weekend,” the NWS office in Buffalo wrote Wednesday.
But Buffalo isn’t alone, of course; the entire Great Lakes will experience record-challenging snow in the next few days. The NWS has warned that travel could be “near-impossible” starting Thursday, and insists that drivers should pack a flashlight, food and water in their vehicles in case they get stranded. The snow is also expected to topple power lines, leading to outages. Widespread road closures are also a given, snarling transportation across the Northeast.
And looking further ahead, even larger accumulations are forecast next weekend:


GFS Total Snowfall (inches) Nov 17 – Dec 3 [tropicaltidbits.com].

Western and Central regions won’t be spared this continent-wide invasion of early-season polar cold.
Low temperature records and historic snowfall benchmarks are already being felled there, too — with much more to come, threatening to disrupt Thanksgiving (Nov 24), and beyond:


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Nov 16 – Nov 21 [tropicaltidbits.com].

GFS Total Snowfall (inches) Nov 17 – Dec 3 [tropicaltidbits.com].

All this snow is, as you’d expect, aiding the Northern Hemisphere’s snow mass.
According to Finnish Meteorological data (shown below), ‘Total Snow Mass for the NH’ is, as of Nov 15 –the latest datapoint– progressing above both the 1982-2012 mean and the standard deviation–where it has been all season:


[FMI]


Energy Crisis Update

The cold conditions and outlook are pushing wholesale energy prices higher.


NatGas

December nat-gas futures posted gains on Wednesday as forecasts for below-average temperatures toward the end of the month sparked short-covering.


Diesel

Prices for diesel fuel have soared by ~50% this year to $5.35/gallon, a record premium over gasoline and crude oil.
The spread between diesel and gasoline has widened to an all-time high of $1.61/gallon from $0.23 difference a year ago, bolstered by the news that the U.S. has just 25 days of diesel in reserve, the lowest since 2008.
High prices are hitting businesses from mining and manufacturers to distributors and retailers, who are paying through the nose, record sums, to transport goods; meanwhile, refiners are reaping record profits, with shares of Valero Energy, Marathon Petroleum and Exxon Mobil, for example, having surged 80+% year-to-date.
U.S. diesel inventories have trended down since the summer of 2020, and are now 10% below their previous five-year low, 40% below in the northeast. East Coast inventories of diesel and heating oil are currently at 25M barrels. Macquarie strategist, Vikas Dwivedi, points out an average winter depletes reserves by about 20M barrels, but an especially cold winter “could easily draw down 25 million, and that’s all you’ve got.”


Biofuels

Total US weekly ethanol production and stockpiles both declined in the week ending Nov 11, landing below market expectations.
Ethanol production decreased week-on-week by 40,000 barrels, coming in well-below analyst predictions. The reduction was largely due to a lower output in the Midwest — home to the majority of the country’s capacity.
Ethanol stockpiles substantially dropped by 894,000 barrels to 21.3 million barrels. The stockpile decrease also blind-sided analysts, who had polled for a week-on-week inventory rise of 126,000 barrels.


European Woes

Flex LNG Ltd. expects the market for liquefied natural gas vessels to remain tight and charter rates to stay high for years to come, especially if Europe faces chilly winters. CEO Øystein Kalleklev believes Europe will struggle as it tries to refill storage without Russian pipeline gas.
Latest weather forecasts are calling for fierce Arctic Outbreaks across both Asia and Europe. This will increase natural gas demand, which, in turn, is expected to see European buyers willing to pay massive premiums for energy, risking further economic instability across the continent.
Referring to the rare a triple-dip La Nina we’re currently experiencing, Kalleklev said: “Usually that means a cold snap in Asia and theoretically in Europe,” and with the continent only having about 7-weeks of winter demand in the tanks, if La Nina does indeed bring big chills to Asia and Europe, major Asian LNG buyers could reserve their cargoes for domestic use only, meaning Europe’s storage will be consumed at an accelerated rate without the ability to top it back up.


Siberia Plunges To -47.8C (-54F)

This week has brought Siberia its coldest temperatures of the winter season so far –the coldest in the Northern Hemisphere, in fact– with the punishing chill extending anomalously-far south to portions of the Middle East, including Northern Iraq’s mountains.
Siberia sank to -47.5C (-53.5F) at Segen-Kyuel on Nov 15, but then surpassed with a low of -47.8C (-54F) on Nov 16.
AccuWeather Lead International Forecaster Jason Nicholls explained that the slow-moving trough in the Caspian Sea allowed brutally-frigid air to enter Russia, impacting northern Iran and Iraq, too, with heavy snow reported on and around Mount Gara.



The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).
 

alpha

Veteran Member
Electroverse

image-26.png
Extreme Weather

State Of Victoria Suffers Coldest-Ever November Temperature As Polar Outbreak Sweeps Australia; Cold Records Begin Tumbling Across U.S.; + Below-Average Octobers For Caribbean Islands​

November 18, 2022 Cap Allon

State Of Victoria Suffers Coldest-Ever November Temperature As Polar Outbreak Sweeps Australia

Australian’s record-breaking polar outbreak is, for many, still refusing to dissipate.
Adding to the slain *monthly* records from earlier in the week –and to the hundreds felled since the commencement of winter– a myriad more were set on both Wednesday and Thursday, including the handful listed below:




The cherry, however, was undoubtedly taken by Mount Hotham with its Wednesday low of -7C (19.4F). According to BoM record keeping, this is the lowest November temperature ever record in the state of Victoria, usurping the -6.8C, also set at Hotham, in 2006.


Ben Domensino
@Ben_Domensino

Mount Hotham's minimum temperature of -7.0ºC on Wednesday morning was Victoria's lowest November temperature on record, beating -6.8ºC from the same location in 2006. https://t.co/Fx3bK5zk4d


Image

12:36 AM · Nov 17, 2022
The anomalous chill has extended into Friday, too, particularly across the Southeast.

Melbourne Centre sank to 7.2C (45F) this morning, with 4.4C (39.9F) logged at the Airport — the coldest readings so late in the season since 1977 (solar minimum of cycle 20).


Cold Records Begin Tumbling Across U.S.

The freeze and blizzards are intensifying across the United States.

Over the past 24-hours (08:00 UTC Nov 17 – 07:00 UTC Nov 18) low temperature benchmarks are beginning to fall/be challenged across the length and breadth of the country, from Washington State to Florida — as visualized by the coolwx.com graphic below:



The heavy, disruptive snow will likely claim the majority of the weather headlines –with 6ft expected in Buffalo (see below tweets)– but the plummeting temps are proving equally noteworthy — they would be considered cold even in the depths of winter, let alone mid-November.





Andy Young
@AndyYoungTV

The Skyway in #Buffalo two hours ago to now. https://t.co/6387aimsLo


Image

8:15 PM · Nov 17, 2022
https://twitter.com/intent/like?ref...3441widget=Tweet&tweet_id=1593412529342013441

A babe from the 716
@716babe

I sorta love it #snow #buffalo https://t.co/x0IIuhxGQh


Image

9:53 PM · Nov 17, 2022
“This is shaping up to be potentially one the most extreme snowstorms in US history.”

As a result, a ‘Winter Storm State Of Emergency’ has been declared.





Colin McCarthy
@US_Stormwatch

The newest HRRR model run has 70 inches of snow falling in less than 24 hours just south of Buffalo, NY. This is shaping up to be potentially one of the most extreme snowstorms in US history. https://t.co/PDP0bA4pzc
9:26 PM · Nov 16, 2022
https://twitter.com/intent/like?ref...0369widget=Tweet&tweet_id=1593067983395770369

Colin McCarthy
@US_Stormwatch

Extreme close-range thundersnow in Buffalo, NY ❄️⚡️ Historic snowstorm is now underway. Credit : @Dave_WX https://t.co/JtKpu5klfA


Image

12:13 AM · Nov 18, 2022
https://twitter.com/intent/like?ref...2768widget=Tweet&tweet_id=1593472340930592768

NEWS ALL TIME
@NEWS_ALL_TIME

BREAKING: New Video- Thundersnow recorded in Buffalo, NY as potentially historic lake effect snow event begins. #snow #NewYork #buffalo #weather #WeatherUpdate https://t.co/wlUaxWlG7l


Image

9:29 PM · Nov 17, 2022
Wednesday brought America its snowiest Nov 16 on record, and I think it’s fair to assume Friday will bring its snowiest Nov 18.

We’re also waiting on an update of the FMI’s ‘Total snow mass for the Northern Hemisphere‘ chart, which, for the season to date, has posted datapoints above both the 1982-2012 mean and the standard deviation:


[FMI]

Further headaches for the AGW Party; more questions for them to field.


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Friday, November 18 [tropicaltidbits.com].

Below-Average Octobers For Caribbean Islands

It was an anomalously-cool October 2022 across the Caribbean.

October in Barbados, for example, had an average temperature of 27.95C (82.3F), which is 0.9C below the multidecadal average.

While in nearby Curacao had an average temperature of 28.2C (82.8C), which is 0.6C below the norm.

My Weekend

Personally, I’m now headed out to begin work on a new animal enclosure, and thin my turnips and carrots.

The collapse is quickening, in my humble opinion — between the record lows and the historic snows, make hay.
 
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