WAR CHINA THREATENS TO INVADE TAIWAN

Maryh

Veteran Member
Your Daughter needs to do some serious thinking. All the war scenarios I have seen have China firing missiles at US bases in Japan right from the get-go. What will this mean to a civilian in Japan? First all civilian airlines will stop flying in and out of Japan. The Japanese military will take over all civilian airports and Japanese airlines.

Your Daughter stands a very good chance of being trapped in Japan. Is she prepared for that?

The US government will have bigger things on its mind than evacuating civilians from Japan.

I believe that the start of hostiles will come without warning.

The Fall seems to be the time of greatest danger that China will invade Taiwan.
I know
 
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jward

passin' thru

'US must immediately stop all official interactions with Taiwan': China fumes over US lawmaker's visit to Taipei​

Meanwhile, Marsha Blackburn yesterday said that China has been just waiting for an "excuse to bully Taiwan".​


Beijing: China on Friday reacted strongly to US lawmaker Marsha Blackburn's visit to Taiwan and asked the American government to immediately stop all forms of official interactions with Taipei. It should be noted that the Republican Senator is on a visit to Taiwan from August 25 to 27.

In response to a media query, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that the Marsha Blackburn's visit to Taiwan region "seriously violates the one-China principle and the provisions of the three China-US joint communiques", and goes against the US commitment of maintaining only non-official ties with the Taiwan region.

"There is only one China in the world and Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory. The government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China," the spokesperson said.

The spokesperson went on to add, "We will not waver in opposing 'Taiwan independence' separatist activities and external interference. We urge the relevant U.S. politician to abide by the one-China principle and the three China-U.S. joint communiques, immediately stop all forms of official interactions with Taiwan, and immediately stop sending wrong signals to 'Taiwan independence' separatist forces."

Meanwhile, Marsha Blackburn yesterday said that China has been just waiting for an "excuse to bully Taiwan".

She arrived in Taipei late Thursday after visiting Fiji, the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea as part of a US push to "expand our diplomatic footprint in the area," her office said in a statement.

During her three-day visit, Blackburn is also due to meet with the head of Taiwan's National Security Council.
 

jward

passin' thru
guess we normally only send one. . .not clear if this is just a FU measure, or one made from legitimate concerns they need the defensive capability o' a second. . .

Apex

@Apex_WW
27m

Two U.S. Navy warships are carrying out a passage through international waters in the Taiwan Strait, three U.S. officials told @Reuters on Saturday, the first such operation since heightened tensions with #China over Pelosi's visit to #Taiwan.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
1661667309699.png

FbOK9ylakAE2jrb
 

jward

passin' thru

'US must immediately stop all official interactions with Taiwan': China fumes over US lawmaker's visit to Taipei​

Meanwhile, Marsha Blackburn yesterday said that China has been just waiting for an "excuse to bully Taiwan".​


Beijing: China on Friday reacted strongly to US lawmaker Marsha Blackburn's visit to Taiwan and asked the American government to immediately stop all forms of official interactions with Taipei. It should be noted that the Republican Senator is on a visit to Taiwan from August 25 to 27.

In response to a media query, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that the Marsha Blackburn's visit to Taiwan region "seriously violates the one-China principle and the provisions of the three China-US joint communiques", and goes against the US commitment of maintaining only non-official ties with the Taiwan region.

"There is only one China in the world and Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory. The government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China," the spokesperson said.

The spokesperson went on to add, "We will not waver in opposing 'Taiwan independence' separatist activities and external interference. We urge the relevant U.S. politician to abide by the one-China principle and the three China-U.S. joint communiques, immediately stop all forms of official interactions with Taiwan, and immediately stop sending wrong signals to 'Taiwan independence' separatist forces."

Meanwhile, Marsha Blackburn yesterday said that China has been just waiting for an "excuse to bully Taiwan".

She arrived in Taipei late Thursday after visiting Fiji, the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea as part of a US push to "expand our diplomatic footprint in the area," her office said in a statement.

During her three-day visit, Blackburn is also due to meet with the head of Taiwan's National Security Council.




SCS Probing Initiative
@SCS_PI


"The Eastern Theater Command of the PLA is monitoring and guarding the entire passage of the US warships and keeping track of all its movements. Troops in the theater remain on high alert, ready to thwart any provocation."
View: https://twitter.com/SCS_PI/status/1563772984921206784?s=20&t=zIRgaMMvvDd_X-Z5f-wuDA
 
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Techwreck

Veteran Member

China Answers Sen. Blackburn Visit By Buzzing Taiwan With 4 Nuclear-Capable Bombers​

Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN
SUNDAY, AUG 28, 2022 - 11:00 AM
Beijing has issued its response to anti-China hawk Sen. Marsha Blackburn visiting Taiwan on Thursday and Friday. It began with at least 35 PLA jets buzzing the island's airspace on Friday, including 8 Chinese Navy vessels patrolling off the island.
And on Saturday Fox News correspondent Lucas Thomlinson reported "China sends four nuclear-capable bombers near Taiwan Saturday one day after Sen. Marsha Blackburn met Taiwan’s president in Taipei."


Further, Taiwan's defense ministry said it monitored a total of 21 PLA aircraft and five PLA Navy vessels near the island. This was part of the ongoing message and fallout going back to Nancy Pelosi's Aug.2 visit.

As for Sen. Blackburn, she led the fourth US delegation to Taiwan for the month of August alone, strongly signaling Washington is not backing down even after in the days after the controversial Pelosi visit China launched its largest live fire drills surrounding Taiwan in recent history.

On Friday morning Blackburn had said "Xi Jinping doesn’t scare me" - also while referring to Taiwan as a "country" in a meeting with Taiwan's president Tsai Ing-wen:

"I will never kowtow to the Chinese Communist Party," she said in one. "I will continue to stand with the (Taiwanese) and their right to freedom and democracy. Xi Jinping doesn’t scare me."
The White House has accused Beijing of using the early August Pelosi visit to manufacture a crisis. Chinese state media had at the same time expressly stated the PLA drills were a "rehearsal" for forced reunification. For now, it looks like these Congressional delegations, in some instances led by some of the most outspoken anti-China hawks, will continue unabated.

1661707999607.jpeg
foxnews.com
Two Chinas? Sen. Blackburn calls Taiwan an 'independent nation' in visit to island
Sen. Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee referred to Taiwan as an independent country, despite China claiming sovereignty over


Sen. Blackburn (R-TN) had arrived Thursday in Taipei on a US Air Force plane in an unannounced visit. She's a well-known hawk when it comes to all things China, for example having posted on Twitter in 2020 that "China has a 5,000 year history of cheating and stealing. Some things will never change." She more recently backed a proposed bill that would let the Biden administration lend weapons to Taiwan, akin to what's already been authorized for Ukraine.
 

Wyominglarry

Veteran Member
China would be a large glass parking lot if they ever used a nuke. even Xi knows this and does not want that to happen. My guess is this bullying will go on for many more years. China needs the US more than we need that commie country.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
And now they're getting into the starting blocks....

Posted for fair use.....

Taiwan Says It Will Now Shoot Down Rogue Chinese Drones​

After a string of embarrassing incursions by Chinese drones over its outlying islands, Taiwan has vowed to shoot them down, if necessary.​

BY THOMAS NEWDICK
AUG 29, 2022 2:54 PM

As its next move in the fast-developing challenge of Chinese drone incursions, the Taiwanese military has reportedly confirmed that it will, in the future, shoot down unmanned aerial vehicles that don’t respond to its warnings. The move comes after authorities on the self-governing island said they would deploy undisclosed domestically developed drone defense systems across its territory, which followed a highly public encounter between a Chinese drone and two Taiwanese soldiers, as you can read about more here.

According to a report from Taiwan News, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense yesterday announced that its forces would “shoot down intruding Chinese drones that fail to heed warnings.” Exactly what type of drone defense system is planned to be used in such scenarios is unclear, although The War Zone has already looked at some of the possible candidates.

What we do know is that the rules of engagement, as described, call for the Taiwanese military to act against drones in its airspace only after they ignore other measures to “drive away” the unmanned aerial vehicles. These include “sounding whistles, broadcasting radio warnings, and firing signal flares.” The last of these is something that Taiwan has done on a fairly regular basis since the current wave of drone incursions began in July. As for the other two, it’s highly questionable if these would have any kind of effect on the small, likely commercially available drone types that seem to have been encountered over Taiwan’s outlying islands. It is unlikely that UAVs of this type would be transmitting live audio let alone be equipped with radios able to transmit and receive voice communications.

It should also be noted that while the Ministry of National Defense reportedly mentioned shooting down the rogue drones, this may well not involve using a gun or missile, or even a net-based system to capture it. A range of other non-kinetic options are available that could similarly disable a UAV and cause it to crash.

Also of particular interest is the fact that the latest announcement refers specifically to Taiwan’s outer islands, rather than the main island, around which Chinese manned aircraft of different kinds now also more regularly operate.

In particular, Chinese drone incursions have been taking place over the islands of Kinmen, also known as Quemoy, as well as the Matsu Islands. At their closest points, these are only around six miles from the coast of mainland China, but around 100 miles from the main island of Taiwan, making their defense extremely problematic. They have also long been the focus of Chinese military activity at times of tension, up to and including artillery bombardment. With the close proximity of these islands to the mainland, they would likely be among the first to be seized in a wider conflict with Taiwan, or they may even be taken as part of a separate operation.

That the Kinmen Islands, in particular, are experiencing a Chinese drone ‘problem’ had become abundantly clear by August 16, when a drone appeared over the Lieyu Garrison Battalion on one of the islands of Kinmen.

The drone was variously described as belonging to the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) or Chinese civilians, but Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense confirmed that imagery filmed from the drone, which showed its sentries throwing rocks or other objects at the UAV, was genuine.

View: https://youtu.be/s51qVSJk0wM


The Kinmen Defense Command told Taiwan News that the drone “quickly flew away.”
Since then, however, more video has emerged showing another similar incident, also at a military lookout post in Kinmen’s Lieyu Township.

Again, first appearing on the Chinese Weibo social media platform, this video emerged on August 27 and shows Taiwanese troops scrambling to respond to the drone’s appearance. Soldiers are seen speaking into radios and pointing at the drone.

View: https://youtu.be/NkVjuv4kWqI


The Kinmen Defense Command again said that the drone involved was a civilian model, and that warning flares were fired at it. However, as we have observed before, an apparently civilian drone doesn’t rule out at least some kind of connection to the Chinese military or intelligence services.

View: https://twitter.com/tingtingliuTVBS/status/1563761016382844930


The Kinmen Defense Command has also confirmed 23 intrusions by Chinese drones over Kinmen County since the controversial visit to Taiwan by U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi at the beginning of this month.

Incursions even by smaller unmanned aircraft could threaten sensitive areas on the islands of Kinmen and Matsu, both in peacetime and in a range of different conflict scenarios. At a basic level, their missions could include various types of surveillance, including testing reactions and response times of the defending Republic of China Armed Forces. At the same time, repeated incursions could also serve to tie up Taiwanese resources while providing a low-cost propaganda tool, apparently undermining Taiwanese defense efforts on the islands and highlighting their vulnerability to a Chinese invasion.

In a time of war in the Taiwan Strait, the PLA would almost certainly make use of its many different drone types and even smaller craft could potentially play a useful role, especially during the open stages of a conflict. They could be especially useful in efforts to degrade air defense systems that might be deployed on the islands, achieved both through the drone’s weight of numbers, kinetic effects, and potentially through jamming.

The very public nature of some of these recent incidents could well have prompted, in part, the Ministry of National Defense’s announcement of harsher measures against drones, although we don’t know when these are likely to start being enforced. Indeed, the ease with which these drones have apparently threatened the security of Taiwanese military facilities has resulted in much discussion, including about the seriousness of Taipei’s plans to defend the outlying islands against potential Chinese aggression.

A recent post on the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense Facebook page shows soldiers with a quadcopter drone superimposed and states that it will take “appropriate countermeasures immediately.” The nearest soldier appears to be armed with a flare gun, as used in recent drone encounters.

As for the forthcoming drone defense systems, these are directed at a broader set of threats since they are intended to address not just the outlying islands but will be installed at 45 facilities across Taiwan up to 2026, according to the Ministry of National Defense. The investment is expected to amount to $141 million.

However, the particular vulnerability of the outlying islands is being addressed, with reports that military facilities in these locations will be “prioritized.” Next year, according to reports, Taiwan will acquire “five sets of drone defense systems and 232 jammer guns,” and it seems almost certain that at least some of them will be issued to units like those on Kinmen.

As long as civilian drones are being shot down, the potential for further escalation is probably limited. However, were Taiwan to shoot down a UAV belonging to the PLA, it’s unclear what the response from Beijing would be.

The drones seen in the recent video footage are clearly within Taiwanese airspace, but it’s easy to see how a drone skirting Taiwanese territory that was then shot down could lead to a serious international incident. Furthermore, the nature of spy flights is such that opposing sides very frequently disagree on where incidents take place as regards airspace ownership and appropriate response. With Beijing’s expansive claims over territory, the potential for such flashpoints only grows.

Interestingly, it seems that, at least to some degree, Taiwan’s previous approach to drone incursions was based on demonstrating restraint, likely to reduce the chances of such misunderstandings.

Indeed, in the wake of the second Kinmen drone video, which emerged on August 27, the Kinmen Defense Command told Taiwan News that its forces had responded according to the principle of “not starting a war lightly and not escalating a conflict.” How shooting down a drone fits into this posture is not quite clear, but it’s easy to see how Beijing would view it as a hostile act. Furthermore, the loss of a drone could give Beijing a reason to adopt an even more aggressive posture in a time of already heightened tensions.

View: https://twitter.com/HuXijin_GT/status/1564281197458362370


Nevertheless, with the Chinese military’s use of drones having sharply increased in recent weeks, and especially with provocative drone flights over the outlying islands, whoever may be conducting them, it seems that Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense has made the decision to take a harder line in the future. To what degree this is intended as a response to the current tensions and the related questions over national security, is unclear. Still, it appears that Taiwan is now generally taking the drone threat much more seriously.

Contact the author: thomas@thedrive.com
 

jward

passin' thru
Any hot spots we've yet to ensure conflagration >>?!

Faytuks News Δ
@Faytuks
4h

BREAKING: The Biden administration plans to ask Congress to approve an estimated $1.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan, including 60 anti-ship missiles and 100 air-to-air missiles, sources says - Politico
 

jward

passin' thru

Biden administration to ask Congress to approve $1.1B arms sale to Taiwan​




3 minutes



House Speaker Nancy Pelosi speaks during a meeting with Taiwanese President President Tsai Ing-wen, in Taipei, Taiwan, Wednesday, Aug. 3, 2022. | Taiwan Presidential Office via AP
The Biden administration plans to formally ask Congress to approve an estimated $1.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan that includes 60 anti-ship missiles and 100 air-to-air missiles, according to three sources with direct knowledge of the package.
The news comes as China continues to send warships and aircraft into the Taiwan Strait on a daily basis, just weeks after Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the self-governing island and condemned Beijing’s attempts to isolate and intimidate Taiwan. In response to Pelosi’s visit, Beijing launched massive, unprecedented military drills around Taiwan that involved shooting missiles over the island for the first time.
The package, which is still in an early stage, includes 60 AGM-84L Harpoon Block II missiles for $355 million, 100 AIM-9X Block II Sidewinder tactical air-to-air missiles for $85.6 million, and $655.4 million for a surveillance radar contract extension, the people said. The Sidewinder missiles will arm Taipei’s U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets.
Once the Biden administration formalizes the notification, the Democratic chair and ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the House Foreign Affairs Committee will need to sign off on the sale before it can be finalized. The lawmakers are likely to approve the sale, but the process could drag out given the ongoing congressional recess.
Representatives for both committees did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Fears have grown in recent years that China is positioning itself to take Taiwan by military force based on its belief that the island is part of China. In response, the U.S. and other Western nations have sought to bolster Taiwan’s defenses and praise its vibrant democracy, in stark contrast to Beijing’s authoritarianism.
The U.S. has maintained its adherence to the so-called One China policy outlined in the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, which stipulates that the U.S. would not establish formal diplomatic relations with Taipei.
The TRA also created the “strategic ambiguity” doctrine whereby the U.S. remains purposely noncommittal about whether it would militarily defend Taiwan against an invasion. Lawmakers in both parties have pushed to scrap that policy as Taiwan faces increasingly belligerent threats and intimidation tactics from China’s military.
A State Department spokesperson declined to comment.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment

Biden administration to ask Congress to approve $1.1B arms sale to Taiwan​




3 minutes



House Speaker Nancy Pelosi speaks during a meeting with Taiwanese President President Tsai Ing-wen, in Taipei, Taiwan, Wednesday, Aug. 3, 2022. | Taiwan Presidential Office via AP
The Biden administration plans to formally ask Congress to approve an estimated $1.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan that includes 60 anti-ship missiles and 100 air-to-air missiles, according to three sources with direct knowledge of the package.
The news comes as China continues to send warships and aircraft into the Taiwan Strait on a daily basis, just weeks after Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the self-governing island and condemned Beijing’s attempts to isolate and intimidate Taiwan. In response to Pelosi’s visit, Beijing launched massive, unprecedented military drills around Taiwan that involved shooting missiles over the island for the first time.
The package, which is still in an early stage, includes 60 AGM-84L Harpoon Block II missiles for $355 million, 100 AIM-9X Block II Sidewinder tactical air-to-air missiles for $85.6 million, and $655.4 million for a surveillance radar contract extension, the people said. The Sidewinder missiles will arm Taipei’s U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets.
Once the Biden administration formalizes the notification, the Democratic chair and ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the House Foreign Affairs Committee will need to sign off on the sale before it can be finalized. The lawmakers are likely to approve the sale, but the process could drag out given the ongoing congressional recess.
Representatives for both committees did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Fears have grown in recent years that China is positioning itself to take Taiwan by military force based on its belief that the island is part of China. In response, the U.S. and other Western nations have sought to bolster Taiwan’s defenses and praise its vibrant democracy, in stark contrast to Beijing’s authoritarianism.
The U.S. has maintained its adherence to the so-called One China policy outlined in the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, which stipulates that the U.S. would not establish formal diplomatic relations with Taipei.
The TRA also created the “strategic ambiguity” doctrine whereby the U.S. remains purposely noncommittal about whether it would militarily defend Taiwan against an invasion. Lawmakers in both parties have pushed to scrap that policy as Taiwan faces increasingly belligerent threats and intimidation tactics from China’s military.
A State Department spokesperson declined to comment.
IMHO a good part of that is going to go the reopening and renovating production lines to both make the arms they're "selling" and restocking our own magazines.
 

jward

passin' thru
hmm. quick, someone take the bic outta my hand b4 I do somethin' drastic to my do :eek:

:hof:

QuickUpdates
@QuickBigUpdates


Big Breaking For The First Time, Warning Shots Were Fired At A Chinese Drone Near An Outlying Island. Drone Headed Towards China After Shots Fired.: Taiwan Military
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic

US Stocks, Bond Yields Tumble After Taiwan Fires At China Drone​

BY TYLER DURDEN
ZERO HEDGE
TUESDAY, AUG 30, 2022 - 10:16 AM

Reuters is confirming the breaking news that "Taiwan's military on Tuesday fired warning shots at a Chinese drone which buzzed an islet controlled by Taiwan near the Chinese coast, a military spokesperson said."

The headline sparked anxiety across markets as fears remain of a broader 'reunification' war in the wake of Nancy Pelosi's ultra provocative Taipei visit on Aug.2.

US equity markets erased all their overnight gains...

2022-08-30_07-07-54.jpg



And sent bond yields tumbling...

2022-08-30_06-55-29.jpg



China has sent warships through the Taiwan Strait, also in breach of the median line on a daily basis through August.
Developing...

 

northern watch

TB Fanatic

Pentagon Stockpiles "Uncomfortably Low" Amid Ukraine Transfers, Officials Admit​

BY TYLER DURDEN
ZERO HEDGE
TUESDAY, AUG 30, 2022 - 09:35 AM

"It is not at the level we would like to go into combat," a US defense official told The Wall Street Journal of the Pentagon's fast depleting stockpiles due to unprecedented defense aid to Ukraine, and stressed in particular that artillery ammunition is now "uncomfortably low".

What's more is that the shortfall will likely last into the future, given the norm is for new purchases and then manufacturers supplying the weapons to take a process of years.

"The U.S. has during the past six months supplied Ukraine with 16 U.S. rocket launchers, known as Himars, thousands of guns, drones, missiles and other equipment. Much of that, including ammunition, has come directly from U.S. inventory, depleting stockpiles intended for unexpected threats, defense officials say," the report spells out.


Image: US Army


In total so far, the US has pledged to send about $13 billion in arms to Ukraine after only six months of conflict. Given the alarm over Washington's own dwindling stockpiles, the DoD is now opting to send 105mm rounds to Ukraine instead of the 155mm guided 'smart' artillery shells.

In early July, a senior US defense official told reporters in a briefing that the Ukrainian army was at that point firing about 3,000 155mm shells per day:

The revelation came amid questioning on the latest tranche of weapons and ammunition being sent to Ukraine, including, for the first time 1,000 guided 155mm 'smart' shells.
The official said despite the high usage rate, Ukrainian forces still have "substantial stores" of 155mm rounds and are far from running out with more rounds on the way. The U.S. and NATO allies have donated hundreds of thousands of 155mm rounds to Ukraine.
But already at this point it seems the Pentagon is becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the rate of these 'donations'.

The Wall Street Journal report indicated further that the US Army has requested of Congress another $500 million per year to enhance its own ammo factories. It remains that the biggest winner in all of this is the big defense contractors and manufacturers.

Meanwhile, other NATO allies are facing this same problem and worry, especially 'neutral' Germany which has dramatically shifted its historic stance on not sending weapons into foreign conflict zones. A number of German politicians have warned that Berlin should not be sharing weapons from its own arsenal, given that "Unfortunately, the situation here is such that we have an absolute deficit in our own stocks," according to the recent words of Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.

Speaking to German media agency ZDF, she said: "However, Germany must also think in the medium term. Due to the German arms problem, the armaments industry had to dedicatedly produce material for the Ukraine."

 

jward

passin' thru

Taiwan vows to 'counter-attack' if China's forces enter its territory​


August 30, 202211:41 PM CDTLast Updated 10 min ago

3-4 minutes



A Navy Force helicopter under the Eastern Theatre Command of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) takes part in military exercises in the waters around Taiwan, at an undisclosed location August 8, 2022 in this handout picture released on August 9, 2022. Eastern Theatre Command/Handout via REUTERS

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com​

TAIPEI, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Taiwan said on Wednesday it would exercise its right to self defence and "counter-attack" if Chinese armed forces entered its territory, as Beijing increased military activities near the democratic island.
Beijing, which claims Taiwan as its own against strong objections by the government in Taipei, has held military exercises around the island this month in reaction to a visit to Taipei by U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Taiwanese defence officials said China's "high intensity" military patrols near Taiwan continued and Beijing's intention of making the Taiwan Strait separating the two sides its "inner sea" would become the main source of instability in the region.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com​

"For aircraft and ships that entered our sea and air territory of 12 nautical miles, the national army will exercise right to self-defence and counter attack without exception," Lin Wen-Huang, deputy chief of the general staff for operations and planning, told reporters at a news briefing.
Taiwan has complained of Chinese drones repeatedly flying close to its small groups of islands near China's coast.
The military will exercise the same right to "counter-attack" Chinese drones that did not heed warnings to leave its territory after posing threats, Lin added.
Taiwan fired warning shots at a Chinese drone for the first time on Tuesday shortly after President Tsai Ing-wen ordered Taiwan's military to take "strong countermeasures" against what she termed Chinese provocations.
China's Foreign Ministry this week dismissed complaints from Taiwan about drone harassment as "not worth fussing about", prompting Taipei to label Beijing as nothing more than thieves. read more
In the same briefing, Ma Cheng-Kun, a director from military academy National Defence University, said China might further move to reject passage of foreign naval ships through the strait without its permission.
"After the new military normal status has been consolidated, then the risk of collision will increase if foreign naval ships insist on the rights of navigation and freedom," he said.
U.S. warships and those from allied nations such as Britain and Canada have routinely sailed through the strait in recent years, including two U.S. Navy warships last week. read more
Taiwan's armed forces are well-equipped but dwarfed by China's. Tsai is overseeing a modernisation programme and has made increasing defence spending a priority.
China has not ruled out using force to bring the island under its control. Taipei rejects Beijing's sovereignty claims, saying that the People's Republic of China has never ruled the island and that only Taiwan's people can decide their future.

 

northern watch

TB Fanatic

Survivable ships and long-range missiles, not B-2 bombers, are key to winning any Taiwan war​

by Tom Rogan, National Security Writer & Online Editor
Washington Examiner.com
August 31, 2022 06:10 AM

Most informed U.S. military and intelligence analysts tell me they believe that Chinese President Xi Jinping will expedite his timetable for conquering Taiwan to the 2024-2027 period.

In turn, the successful test of a B-2 bomber-launched Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile-Extended Range, or JASSM-ER, missile is good news. Northrop Grumman told Defense News that a B-2 successfully launched a JASSM-ER during a test last December.

This successful proof of concept means that the Air Force can now adopt the JASSM-ER into its development plans to strengthen the bomber force. Allowing the delivery of a 1,000-pound warhead onto a target at a range of up to 600 miles, the JASSM-ER will allow U.S. warplanes to launch against enemy ground targets from as far away as Okinawa, and thus with greater survivability and more efficient sortie times. This ranged capability will also allow the United States to deploy non-stealth bombers like the B-52 and B1-B and fighter jets like the F-15 and F-16 with these weapons. This will be especially valuable in any future conflict with China over Taiwan.

This is not to say that the U.S. should necessarily fight China over Taiwan, especially if Taiwan doesn't urgently improve its own readiness to survive. But if the U.S. does help defend Taiwan, hopefully alongside Japan and Australia, it will need as many missiles associated with the JASSM-ER family and as many platforms able to launch those weapons as possible.

After all, China's People's Liberation Army has spent the past two decades deploying air defense warships, ballistic missiles, and other platforms specifically designed to deny access to the U.S. military. Some of these PLA platforms are the result of its own ingenuity, but many come from the theft of U.S. technology. Regardless, China's saturated deployment of platforms like the Type-55 destroyer and weapons such as the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile will make it very difficult for U.S. carrier strike groups and non-stealth aircraft to survive in any fight close to Taiwan.

While the Taiwan Strait's 80-plus miles length is a long way for the PLA Navy to travel, space-based platforms aside, China will have a clear geographic advantage over the U.S. in any war with Taiwan. The PLA will be able to utilize air, sea, and ground-based systems, while the U.S. is forced to rely predominantly on air and sea systems that are operating at a very long range from their home bases. Even if Japan joins the U.S. war effort, President Bongbong Marcos's pro-Beijing Filipino government is far less likely to offer U.S. military basing access. Yes, the U.S. may deploy some ground-based systems to Taiwan in anticipation of war. Yes, the Marine Corps's new maritime warfare vision is well-suited to supplement Taiwan's defense. Still, the roughly 2-4 week warning time for any PLA attack means any such deployments will be limited in number and thus wartime utility.

Then, the challenge for the U.S. rests with forces that can survive and sustain operations near Taiwan until those forces have expended their munition payloads. The ability to maximize this force disposition will likely be instrumental in determining whether or not the PLA can establish strongholds on Taiwanese soil. Strongholds that can be used to conquer the island democracy quickly. Thus, the credible deployment of these U.S. forces is also crucial to deterring Xi Jinping in the first place.

What does this mean in practice?

The U.S. Navy's destroyers and submarines, especially, are critical. Unfortunately, members of Congress, such as Rep. John Rutherford, put cronyism before Navy capabilities that might actually survive a China fight. At the same time, the Air Force doesn't have nearly enough of the exceptional F-22 fighter jet and the Navy of its air defense destroyers and cruisers. Making matters worse, President Joe Biden keeps sending more of these assets to Europe.

That brings us back to the B-2s.

Unlike their woefully underarmed, poorly ranged, and overpriced F-35 fighter jet friends (which cannot carry the JASSM-ER without losing their stealth character), the B-2 bombers are priceless assets against China. Near invisible to at least the current generation of PLA radar systems, the B-2s could strike against the highest value PLA command and control and targeting assets deep inside China. The U.S. has deployed B-2s to the British Indian Ocean territory of Diego Garcia in recent years, but B-2s operating out of Guam could get to the Taiwan Strait in around three and a half hours.

The problem?

The Air Force only has 20 B-2 bombers in total. That's not nearly enough to affect the outcome of a war in which the PLA would hold the strategic mass of high-end capabilities. Moreover, the Air Force is prioritizing JASSM-ER purchases over LRASM anti-ship missile purchases (range of approximately 300 miles). This only makes sense if the Air Force believes its sustaining wartime mission will be to strike PLA targets on the Chinese mainland rather than in the Taiwan Strait. Again, however, considering that the Navy's carrier strike groups and F-35s/F-18s are going to struggle to get near the Taiwan Strait, the Air Force will have to pick up the anti-ship-fight slack.

The key, then, is to maximize the number of JASSM-ER missiles and LRASM, SLAM-ER (range of approximately 150 nautical miles) anti-ship/surface missiles that can be brought to bear against the PLA in short order. Put another way, the U.S. munitions industry needs a crash development program. While Xi could always saturate Taiwan with ballistic missile fire in a punitive effort to secure its surrender without relying on airborne and amphibious forces, that brutal effort would risk significant damage to China's other foreign policy interests. Xi's great preference would be to get his forces ashore quickly and at scale to overthrow the Taiwanese government rapidly and mitigate international rebuke. The U.S. needs capabilities that make Xi's ideal a much less credible prospect.

 

jward

passin' thru

northern watch

TB Fanatic

Taiwan Shoots Down Drone Off Chinese Coast For The First Time​

BY TYLER DURDEN
ZERO HEDGE
THURSDAY, SEP 01, 2022 - 08:11 AM

After two prior episodes in as many consecutive days which saw Taiwan military outposts on outlying islands fire warning shots against intruding unidentified drones, a fresh incident Thursday has resulted in an unidentified civilian drone being shot down near the Chinese mainland.

"The Jinmen Defense Command of the Army stated that at 12:30 p.m. today, an unidentified civilian aerial camera was found to enter the airspace over the restricted waters of Shiyu Island," Taiwan's Defense Ministry said. "The Ministry of Defense will continue to search, monitor, and monitor closely to maintain the security of the defence area."


Taiwan controlled Shi Islet is the smallest Taiwan-controlled

Like the prior incidents which just resulted in warning shots, the drone entered restricted waters near one of the Kinmen islands just off the Chinese mainland.

Thursday's drone shootdown took place a distance of a mere minutes by boat ride from the Chinese coast, which has caused some pundits to question whether these incidents have involved civilian operated hobby drones from the mainland's Fujian.

Shi Islet is the smallest Taiwanese island which has long had military personnel stationed on it, and is virtually a rock sticking out of the sea lying just northwest of Taiwan's Lesser Kinmen.

As Reuters details, this is being widely viewed as likely part of a stepped-up Chinse harassment and pressure campaign against Taiwan since Nancy Pelosi's August 2nd visit:

Since mid-August, a number of civilian drones have been spotted flying over the outlying island of Kinmen, 180 kilometres from Taiwan's main island but less than 10 kilometres from China. On one occasion, on August 16, two Taiwanese soldiers wearing masks reportedly threw rocks at a Chinese drone when it flew above their military post.
The Kinmen Defence Command said two other Chinese drones were detected at Little Kinmen island and nearby Lion islet on Saturday and Monday respectively. The one that passed over Lion islet at around 4 pm was flying very low, only 30 meters from the ground, it said.
China has increased its antics in the Taiwan Strait since the visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Taiwan is warning that its military won't hesitate to exercise right of self-defense and to counter-attack in the event of Chinese forces entering its territory.

The military will determine "whether to engage the target and exercise the right of self-defense to counter-attack," if the foreign drones fail to depart after warnings, Major General Lin Wen-huang said Wednesday.

Chinese state media has meanwhile warned that even though these drone incidents are likely due to civilian operators from the mainland, Taiwan will still "bear the consequences" of opening fire.

 

northern watch

TB Fanatic

"Smile": After the rally, Taiwan opened fire: Double episode – First shooting down of a Chinese drone and escalation...​

Educates 3 million citizens - 300,000 will become Snipers​

01/09/2022 - 23:19
War News 24 / 7

It is being driven out of the military arm of NATO: And a new arms embargo on Turkey – The UAV technology is over!

Tensions between China and Taiwan are escalating for the second day in a row, with the Taiwanese Army opening fire for the second time on a Chinese drone.

It was preceded on August 24 by the fiasco of the Taiwanese armed forces when a Chinese drone "sat" over a military outpost and the soldiers were flying... Stones.

Yesterday for the first time, Taiwan's Defense Ministry announced that the armed forces shot down drones after it violated the airspace of the Kinmen Islands, a short distance from the Chinese cities of Siamen and Kwanju.


In the press release released by the ministry, he added that it will continue to investigate the incident and monitor the airspace to guarantee its safety.

The drone entered Taiwanese airspace near an islet just off the Chinese coast on Thursday after the Taipei government promised to take new tough measures to counter the rise in such intrusions.

The defense command for Kinmen (a group of Taiwan-controlled islands opposite china's cities of Siamen and Kwanzhou), said in a statement released by Taiwan's defense ministry that the drone entered restricted airspace over Lion islet shortly after noon local time (7 a.m. Greek time).

The troops on the islet tried to warn the drone to be removed, but to no avail, so they shot it down, with the remains landing at sea, he added.

Taiwan fired warning shots at drones for the first time on Tuesday, shortly after President Tsai Ing-wen ordered the military to take "strong countermeasures" against what it called Chinese provocations.
Taiwan has complained about Chinese drones repeatedly flying near a small group of islands only 10 km from China's coast.

Threats and warning shots escalate​

Taiwan's government has announced that it will exercise its right to "self-defense and counterattack" if the Chinese armed forces enter its territory, as Beijing strengthens military activities in the sea strait separating China from Taiwan.
Taiwanese military officials said China's military patrols near Taiwan continue and Beijing's intention to make the Taiwan Strait separating the two sides "its inner sea."

"For aircraft and ships entering our 12-nautical-mile sea and air territory, the national army will exercise the right to self-defense and counterattack without exception,"
said Lin Weng Huang, deputy chief of taiwan's general staff, speaking to reporters.

"The military will exercise the same right to counterattack Chinese drones that do not take these warnings into account," Lin added.

Taiwan fired warning shots at a Chinese drone for the first time yesterday 31/8, shortly after President Tsai Ing Wen ordered the military to take"strong countermeasures" against what it called Chinese provocations.

Taiwan's military announced that it fired warning shots again today at Chinese drones approaching the Kinmen Islands, which are located directly opposite the Chinese cities of Xiamen and Quanzhou.

The Kinmen archipelago, where the latest incident occurred, is located just 10 kilometers off the coast of China and almost 190 kilometers from Taiwan, whose army has controlled it since Taiwan split from mainland China.

What happened on August 24

On August 24, Taiwan's military confirmed that the image circulated in Chinese media of Taiwanese soldiers looking towards a Chinese drone (UAV) is authentic.

A viral photo on Weibo, a Chinese social media platform, showed Taiwanese soldiers staring in shock at a Chinese drone from a very close distance.

Taiwan's military reported that a "civilian drone" flew over the Lieyu Garrison battalion around 6 p.m. on August 16. The mysterious drone appeared over the Lieyu garrison battalion on one of the Kinmen Islands, also known as the Quemoy.

These islands are administered by Taiwan, but are located on the southeast coast of mainland China. The drone was equipped with some kind of visual surveillance equipment, and its operator was monitoring the military installation on these islands.

The spokesman for the TaiwanEse Army justified himself for the non-shooting down by saying that because the UAV was still on the high seas, only radio warning was issued. He stressed that no flares were fired because the UAV never entered the country's airspace.

He also added that the drone was at an altitude of about 1,000 meters and had taken the photo of the soldiers with a special telephoto lens. This outpost has a special monitoring station that supervises PLA aircraft flying in the area

Taiwan Strait will be closed

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian, at a regular press briefing, reiterated Beijing's position that Taiwan belongs to China.

"First I have to tell you, Taiwan is a province of China, it has no self-proclaimed defense ministry. The Taiwanese authorities are playing with their nervousness, that doesn't make sense," he said.

Ma Cheng-Kun, director at the military academy of the National Defense University, said China may go further in rejecting the passage of foreign naval ships through the Strait without its permission.

"After the new military normal regime is established, then the risk of conflict will increase if foreign naval ships insist on the rights of navigation and freedom," he said.

Taiwan intends to train 3 million citizens in self-defense

The founder of United Microelectronics (UMC), the world's second-largest microchip manufacturer, Robert Cao (Cao Xing-cheng), believes that China should abandon the "one China principle".

He also announced in an interview with Taiwan Radio International that he intended to donate NT$ 3 billion to Taipei's defense industry.

"China is intensifying its military threat against Taiwan, so the Taiwanese people should be determined to strengthen the country's defenses to curb China's military ambitions," he stressed.

The billionaire announced the creation of a fund that would fund the education of Taiwanese. It intends to train 3 million civilians in self-defense in the event of an invasion of the PLA.

The island's residents will be trained in first aid, UAV handling and radio communications. At the same time, 10% of the indicated number, that is, 300 thousand Taiwanese, will be trained in sniper operations.


Cao said he wants to support his people against China , dreaming "of dying in Taiwan laughing at the fall of the Chinese Communist Party."

Image from the Taiwanese outpost that was taken by the Chinese drone

twn-1.jpg


 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment

"Smile": After the rally, Taiwan opened fire: Double episode – First shooting down of a Chinese drone and escalation...​

Educates 3 million citizens - 300,000 will become Snipers​

01/09/2022 - 23:19
War News 24 / 7

It is being driven out of the military arm of NATO: And a new arms embargo on Turkey – The UAV technology is over!

Tensions between China and Taiwan are escalating for the second day in a row, with the Taiwanese Army opening fire for the second time on a Chinese drone.

It was preceded on August 24 by the fiasco of the Taiwanese armed forces when a Chinese drone "sat" over a military outpost and the soldiers were flying... Stones.

Yesterday for the first time, Taiwan's Defense Ministry announced that the armed forces shot down drones after it violated the airspace of the Kinmen Islands, a short distance from the Chinese cities of Siamen and Kwanju.


In the press release released by the ministry, he added that it will continue to investigate the incident and monitor the airspace to guarantee its safety.

The drone entered Taiwanese airspace near an islet just off the Chinese coast on Thursday after the Taipei government promised to take new tough measures to counter the rise in such intrusions.

The defense command for Kinmen (a group of Taiwan-controlled islands opposite china's cities of Siamen and Kwanzhou), said in a statement released by Taiwan's defense ministry that the drone entered restricted airspace over Lion islet shortly after noon local time (7 a.m. Greek time).

The troops on the islet tried to warn the drone to be removed, but to no avail, so they shot it down, with the remains landing at sea, he added.

Taiwan fired warning shots at drones for the first time on Tuesday, shortly after President Tsai Ing-wen ordered the military to take "strong countermeasures" against what it called Chinese provocations.
Taiwan has complained about Chinese drones repeatedly flying near a small group of islands only 10 km from China's coast.

Threats and warning shots escalate​

Taiwan's government has announced that it will exercise its right to "self-defense and counterattack" if the Chinese armed forces enter its territory, as Beijing strengthens military activities in the sea strait separating China from Taiwan.
Taiwanese military officials said China's military patrols near Taiwan continue and Beijing's intention to make the Taiwan Strait separating the two sides "its inner sea."

"For aircraft and ships entering our 12-nautical-mile sea and air territory, the national army will exercise the right to self-defense and counterattack without exception,"
said Lin Weng Huang, deputy chief of taiwan's general staff, speaking to reporters.

"The military will exercise the same right to counterattack Chinese drones that do not take these warnings into account," Lin added.

Taiwan fired warning shots at a Chinese drone for the first time yesterday 31/8, shortly after President Tsai Ing Wen ordered the military to take"strong countermeasures" against what it called Chinese provocations.

Taiwan's military announced that it fired warning shots again today at Chinese drones approaching the Kinmen Islands, which are located directly opposite the Chinese cities of Xiamen and Quanzhou.

The Kinmen archipelago, where the latest incident occurred, is located just 10 kilometers off the coast of China and almost 190 kilometers from Taiwan, whose army has controlled it since Taiwan split from mainland China.

What happened on August 24

On August 24, Taiwan's military confirmed that the image circulated in Chinese media of Taiwanese soldiers looking towards a Chinese drone (UAV) is authentic.

A viral photo on Weibo, a Chinese social media platform, showed Taiwanese soldiers staring in shock at a Chinese drone from a very close distance.

Taiwan's military reported that a "civilian drone" flew over the Lieyu Garrison battalion around 6 p.m. on August 16. The mysterious drone appeared over the Lieyu garrison battalion on one of the Kinmen Islands, also known as the Quemoy.

These islands are administered by Taiwan, but are located on the southeast coast of mainland China. The drone was equipped with some kind of visual surveillance equipment, and its operator was monitoring the military installation on these islands.

The spokesman for the TaiwanEse Army justified himself for the non-shooting down by saying that because the UAV was still on the high seas, only radio warning was issued. He stressed that no flares were fired because the UAV never entered the country's airspace.

He also added that the drone was at an altitude of about 1,000 meters and had taken the photo of the soldiers with a special telephoto lens. This outpost has a special monitoring station that supervises PLA aircraft flying in the area

Taiwan Strait will be closed

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian, at a regular press briefing, reiterated Beijing's position that Taiwan belongs to China.

"First I have to tell you, Taiwan is a province of China, it has no self-proclaimed defense ministry. The Taiwanese authorities are playing with their nervousness, that doesn't make sense," he said.

Ma Cheng-Kun, director at the military academy of the National Defense University, said China may go further in rejecting the passage of foreign naval ships through the Strait without its permission.

"After the new military normal regime is established, then the risk of conflict will increase if foreign naval ships insist on the rights of navigation and freedom," he said.

Taiwan intends to train 3 million citizens in self-defense

The founder of United Microelectronics (UMC), the world's second-largest microchip manufacturer, Robert Cao (Cao Xing-cheng), believes that China should abandon the "one China principle".

He also announced in an interview with Taiwan Radio International that he intended to donate NT$ 3 billion to Taipei's defense industry.

"China is intensifying its military threat against Taiwan, so the Taiwanese people should be determined to strengthen the country's defenses to curb China's military ambitions," he stressed.

The billionaire announced the creation of a fund that would fund the education of Taiwanese. It intends to train 3 million civilians in self-defense in the event of an invasion of the PLA.

The island's residents will be trained in first aid, UAV handling and radio communications. At the same time, 10% of the indicated number, that is, 300 thousand Taiwanese, will be trained in sniper operations.


Cao said he wants to support his people against China , dreaming "of dying in Taiwan laughing at the fall of the Chinese Communist Party."

Image from the Taiwanese outpost that was taken by the Chinese drone

twn-1.jpg



They should have started this "defense training" over twenty years ago and done so continuously through today.
 

jward

passin' thru

China revealing its plan for Taiwan invasion, island's foreign minister says | DW | 01.09.2022​


Deutsche Welle (www.dw.com)

7-9 minutes



In an exclusive interview with DW, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said China's growing military aggression toward Taiwan reflects Beijing's future strategy to invade the democratic island.
As countries around the world grow increasingly concerned about the tension across the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu has said China was revealing its strategies for a future invasion of Taiwan. He warned that Beijing's attempt to change the status quo across the Taiwan Strait could be "destabilizing, provocative and very dangerous."

"In the first part of August, China conducted missile tests, large-scale air and sea exercises, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and economic coercion against Taiwan. If you put all these [moves together], it is part of their playbook for the future invasion of Taiwan," Wu said in an exclusive interview with DW.

"The situation is still very tense and China is trying to destroy the status quo or at least the symbol of the status quo, which is the median line of the Taiwan Strait. The status quo across the Taiwan Strait has been seen as the interest of all parties concerned in this area, or globally. When China is trying to destroy the status quo, it's not in the interest of us or the international community," he said.

A map of the Taiwan Strait, showing the island of Taiwan and the eastern coast of China


Since the controversial trip to Taiwan by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in early August, China has escalated its military threats against the democratic island. It staged a seven-day military exercise surrounding Taiwan and repeatedly dispatched military aircraft as well as naval vessels to cross the median line of the Taiwan Strait, an unofficial demarcation between China and Taiwan that the former does not recognize.

Wu said China was trying to use Pelosi's visit as a pretext to justify its military threats against Taiwan, but said Taiwan wouldn't bow down to the increasing pressure from Beijing.

"What I would say is that Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is a morale boost for the Taiwanese people. Taiwan has been facing the threat from China all this time, but the Chinese military threat won't stop Taiwan from making more friends. It also will not stop international friends to come to Taiwan and show their support to us."

'China's authoritarian expansion won't stop with Taiwan'​


Since the war broke out in Ukraine in February, the international community has been drawing some parallels between the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Wu said that despite coming under attack from Russia, Ukrainians had displayed tremendous bravery that inspired many Taiwanese people.

"[The bravery the Ukrainians have displayed] is inspirational to the Taiwanese people, because we understand that the Chinese can also do the same thing to Taiwan. By that time, we want to show to the international community that we are just about the same degree of bravery in fighting for our country and our democratic way of life," he told DW.

Wu added that since China imposed the National Security Law on Hong Kong more than two years ago, which has fundamentally transformed civil society in the former British colony, the international community has been talking about Taiwan as the next target of China's expansion. "Is Taiwan going to be the last target of the Chinese authoritarian expansion? I would say no," Wu said.

"China claims the East China Sea and they have been conducting military exercises or sending their ships to the disputed water. They have also claimed the South China Sea, and the daily patrol of the South China Sea either by their bombers or by their warships is so frequent these days. If we don't stop it, the Chinese government is going to sign more security agreements with more Pacific countries," he added.

In the face of heightened tension across the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan has announced a record increase in its defense budget for 2023, bringing the island's annual defense spending to $19.41 billion (around €19.35 billion), a 13.9% year-on-year increase. Wu said Taiwan's defense budget increase had been steady and the island was also closely working with partners like the United States to refine its defense strategies and enhance its defense capabilities.

"Other than increasing our military budget, we also conducted the reform of our military strategy. We are also discussing with the US about how we can best approach the strategy of asymmetric warfare," he told DW. "We also have the special budget that is used for items like missiles and jet planes, and the government is determined to increase our military budget."

Unwavering faith in US commitment to Taiwan​


At a time of increasing uncertainty in the region, many people wonder whether the US would come to Taiwan's defense if China ever launched a military invasion. In May, President Joe Biden said the US would intervene militarily if China ever attacked Taiwan. However, the public comments were swiftly walked back by the White House, which emphasized that Washington's official policies toward Taiwan had not changed.

While Biden's comments created confusion about Washington's stance on the issue of Taiwan, Wu said Taipei knows clearly that the responsibility of defending the island lies with the Taiwanese people and that the US is committed to ensuring Taiwan has the capabilities to protect itself through supplying weapons.

"We don't doubt the US commitment to Taiwan. It's been very clear. The defense of Taiwan is our own responsibility. If we are not committed to our own defense, we don't have the right to ask others to sacrifice," he explained.

Wu pointed to the recent example of two US naval vessels sailing through the Taiwan Strait as proof of Washington's support. "This is the way that the US is showing its presence in this region. By doing that, the US is showing its commitment to peace and stability in this region," he said.

Taiwanese opposition chastise government for risky approach​


Despite the warming ties between Taiwan and the US, opposition leaders in Taiwan have criticize the current government for failing to maintain dialogue with China, saying the lack of communication with Beijing is putting Taiwan in a dangerous situation.

"Their policy is no contact, no communication, and no dialogue," Eric Chu, chairman of Taiwan's largest opposition party Kuomintang, told DW. "It's totally putting Taiwan into dangerous situations. If our government is a responsible one, [they should] still maintain the dialogue with China."

Wu said while China is Taiwan's top trading partner, it is Taiwan's "only source of threat."

"The Taiwanese government has been open to dialogue with China. The president says that and the government officials have been repeating that," he said. "As long as China is willing to discuss with Taiwan without any preconditions, Taiwan will be very forthcoming in engaging in dialogue with China."

"When China is threatening Taiwan to such a degree, we have to look around and see who else can provide Taiwan with support. We see the United States and we see other democracies. This is what we can count on," he added.

As the question of Taiwan's status becomes ever more imminent, Wu reiterated that the current government is committed to maintaining the status quo, as he believed that will serve the best interests of all parties concerned. "The status quo is that the Republic of China Taiwan and the People's Republic of China have no jurisdiction over each other," he told DW.

"The status quo is that Taiwan is already a democracy and that Taiwanese people have a say over Taiwan's future. That's the policy we are pursuing," Wu said.

Interview conducted by: Richard Walker, Tsou Tzung-Han
 

jward

passin' thru

S-China shadow war descends on Taiwan​


Richard Javad Heydarian




Nearly a month after US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s explosive visit to Taiwan, there is no sign of relenting by either China or the US over the self-governing island.
This week saw the Taiwanese military fire warning shots at a Chinese drone for the first time in history, underscoring rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Earlier, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen had ordered her armed forces to adopt “strong countermeasures” against any further Chinese provocations.
In recent weeks, China has conducted massive military drills in a muscular expression of its displeasure with Pelosi’s visit, one that has flexed its ability to wage 21st-century warfare across multiple domains.
After showing extreme restraint, largely to avoid escalating regional tensions, Taiwanese defense officials have now vowed to respond in kind to China’s “high intensity” military activities within the self-ruling island nation’s “inner sea.”
“For aircraft and ships that entered our sea and air territory of 12 nautical miles, the national army will exercise right to self-defense and counter-attack without exception,” declared Lin Wen-Huang, Taiwan’s deputy chief of the general staff for operations and planning, during a press conference this week.

Eager to demonstrate its support for Taiwan and no doubt perturbed by the rapidly shifting balance of power in the region in China’s favor, the Biden administration is now seeking for the US Congress to approve a US$1.1 billion arms package sale to Taiwan, which would reportedly include 100 AIM-9X Block II Sidewinder tactical air-to-air missiles and 60 AGM-84L Harpoon Block II missiles.
Taiwan’s warships could soon be armed with more US-made missiles. Credit: Twitter.
With growing US bipartisan support for a tougher stance against China, the White House has been eager to burnish its Taiwan credentials by deploying a new batch of warships to the area in recent days.
With US midterm elections approaching, China seems to be dialing back its military response to Pelosi’s visit lest it empowers more hawkish Republicans who aim to win control of both legislative chambers at November mid-term elections.

China and the US have thus settled into a type of shadowboxing over Taiwan that neither side wants to escalate into an all-out conflict, though the potential for tit-for-tat miscalculation is rising.
In retrospect, China’s fiery response to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan was far more than just a strategic tantrum. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted massive, complex and highly intimidating drills on almost a daily basis shortly after the US speaker left the self-ruling island Beijing considers a renegade province.
At one point, as many as 22 Chinese fighter jets pierced through Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), while 22 others crossed the median line that has long served as a de facto territorial demarcation in the Taiwan Straits.
In the largest exercise of its kind, stretching across six zones surrounding the island nation, the PLA fired missiles over Taiwan for the first time in history. As many as 10 warships were also deployed close to Taiwan’s territorial waters.
During previous showdowns, including the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, the PLA largely kept its warships within the median line and didn’t fire missiles over Taiwan. In contrast, this year saw China responding with a vengeance, breaching previously-held operational understandings.

The geography of China’s military operations has also undergone a major and crucial transformation. During the previous crisis, much of the PLA’s maneuvers were aimed at the northern and southern portions of Taiwan to demonstrate China’s “missile blockade tactics”, according to Taipei-based defense expert Chi Le-yi.
Tourists look on as a Chinese military helicopter flies past Pingtan island, one of mainland China’s closest points to Taiwan, in Fujian province on August 4, ahead of massive military drills off Taiwan. Photo: Twitter / JIJI
This time, however, “the PLA is going further to bring east Taiwan and the southwest Bashi Channel under its missile range coverage … This is a clear move aimed at showing how they would block the entrance of vessels and aircraft from the US and Japan to Taiwan in the event of a contingency,” he added.
After decades of rapid military modernization, the PLA was also able to demonstrate its capability to conduct multi-domain operations with shiny new weapons, including an aircraft carrier, domestically-produced stealth fighter jets and upgraded long-range missiles.

The message to Taiwan was crystal clear: Beijing is inching closer to gaining the ability to fully choke off the self-ruling island in the event of a total war.
As one researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, which is affiliated with Taiwan’s Defense Ministry, noted, “I think they [China] have shown their intentions, encircling Taiwan and countering foreign intervention.”
According to top Taiwanese defense officials, the PLA may acquire the ability to wage a full-scale war by as early as 2025.
In response, Taiwanese President Tsai vowed her country will “never be knocked down by challenges” presented by Beijing’s growing military capabilities. To mitigate the shifting balance of military power in the Taiwan Strait, the Tsai administration has proposed to increase the self-ruling island’s defense spending by nearly 15% to NT$523.4 billion ($17.3 billion), among the largest military budgets in Asia.
Taiwan has also allocated a special fund worth $2 billion to enhance its combat readiness as well as maritime and aerial deterrence capabilities.

The Biden administration’s proposed new defense package deal aims to bolster Taiwan’s military modernization efforts. This is largely consistent with the former Trump administration’s efforts to constrain China’s regional ambitions by strengthening the defensive capabilities of and expanding diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
Although reportedly skeptical of Pelosi’s visit, the Pentagon has doubled down on its naval maneuvers in the area, deploying two guided-missile cruisers through the strait over the weekend.
Singapore-based analyst Collin Koh underscored the unusual nature of the deployment, since “[h]aving two instead of the usual one vessel to do this mission is certainly a ‘bigger’ signal of protest against not only Beijing’s recent military exercises around Taiwan following the Pelosi visit, but also in response to Beijing’s attempt to subvert the legal status of the waterway and the longstanding freedom of navigation rights through the area.”
The USS Chancellorsville guided-missile cruiser was recently deployed to the Taiwan Strait. Photo: US Navy
What was even more surprising, however, was China’s relatively muted response despite its heightened alarm and strategic sensitivity in recent weeks.
Even the state-backed Global Times, a nationalistic tabloid notorious for its incendiary rhetoric, uncharacteristically downplayed the US deployments as inconsequential, since they “[pose] no actual threat to China’s security.”
Having flexed its new military capabilities while failing to dissuade a new wave of diplomatic visits to Taiwan by Western legislators in recent weeks, Beijing seems to be recalibrating its position.
This is likely due to the upcoming 20th Party Congress in mid-October, a highly sensitive event which is expected to hand Chinese President Xi Jinping an unprecedented third term in office.
But Beijing also has its sights on the upcoming US midterm elections in November, where Republicans are favored to take full control of the US legislature.
As Carl Schuster, a former chief of operations at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center, put it, “[Xi] doesn’t want a House and Senate that may enact legislation that more strongly supports Taiwan, or limits Chinese investment and influence in the US.”

The Chinese paramount leader will also likely meet Biden on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia, in November, the first face-to-face meeting between the two world leaders since the advent of the Covid-19 pandemic.
After demonstrating his country’s displeasure and military muscle, the Chinese leader is now likely considering a temporary offramp, which would allow the two superpowers to explore a reset in bilateral relations and their positions on Taiwan.
 

danielboon

TB Fanatic

Taiwan shooting down a drone near China was 'appropriate' - premier​

By Yimou Lee





3 minute read
Illustration shows Chinese and Taiwanese flags

Chinese and Taiwanese flags are seen in this illustration, August 6, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

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TAIPEI, Sept 2 (Reuters) - The shooting down of a drone off the Chinese coast that buzzed a Taiwanese-controlled island was the most "appropriate" thing to do after repeated warnings, and China should exercise restraint, Taiwan Premier Su Tseng-chang said on Friday.
For the first time, Taiwan's military shot down an unidentified civilian drone that entered its airspace near an islet near China's Xiamen city on Thursday, after the government vowed tough measures against a rise in intrusions. read more

China responded that Taiwan was trying to "hype up tensions" over the incident, which follows the island's complaints of harassment regarding drones from China flying close to the Kinmen islands, as Beijing stages military drills around Taiwan.
Su told reporters that Taiwan had repeatedly issued warnings and asked China "not to encroach on our doorstep".
The drone was shot down after entering restricted air space near the tiny Lion islet, and crashed into the sea, according to Taiwan's military.

"They repeatedly ignored our warnings to leave and we had no choice but to exercise self-defence and shoot," Su said. "This is the most appropriate reaction after repeated restraint and warnings."
China should exercise restraint, Su said.
"We will never provoke, and we will do the most appropriate thing to protect our land and our people."
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said Taiwan's "attempt to hype up tensions does not mean anything".

Taiwan media cited China's Taiwan Affairs Office as describing the downing of the drone as "extremely ridiculous" and that Taiwan was trying to "hype up confrontation".
The Kinmen defence command said on Friday its forces detected two further drones which "quickly" flew back to Xiamen after troops fired flares to warn them away.
The defence ministry also released pictures on Friday of troops on Kinmen aiming the Taiwan-developed Skynet "interference gun," which can cut off drone control signals forcing them to land. It said troops are using high calibre rifles to shoot at drones too.
Chinese forces have been exercising near Taiwan since early August following the visit to Taipei of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, which infuriated Beijing.
China views democratically-governed Taiwan as its own territory, despite the strong objections of the government in Taipei.
At least two videos of recent drone trips have circulated widely on Chinese social media, including one in which Taiwanese soldiers were seen throwing stones at the craft.
Su said these videos were made for China's "propaganda at home", adding to the anger of Taiwan's people.
Taiwan fired warning shots at a drone for the first time on Tuesday shortly after President Tsai Ing-wen said she had ordered the military to take "strong countermeasures" against what she termed Chinese provocations. read more
Tsai has championed the idea of "asymmetric warfare" to make its forces more mobile and hard to attack. Speaking via video link to a forum in Prague on Friday, Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said that remained a focus.
"To safeguard our security and sovereignty, Taiwan will continue to develop its asymmetric capacity to make the invasion across the Strait very difficult and costly," he said.
Taiwan has controlled Kinmen, which at its closest point is a few hundred metres (feet) from Chinese territory, since the defeated Republic of China government fled to Taipei after losing a civil war to Mao Zedong's communists in 1949.
At the height of the Cold War, China regularly shelled Kinmen and other Taiwanese-held islands along the Chinese coast, and while they retain a sizeable military presence they are now also tourist destinations. Taiwan shooting down a drone near China was 'appropriate' - premier
 

jward

passin' thru
It's the last day of the month, which means it's time for my first monthly report on Taiwan ADIZ violations.

The big story of the month was @SpeakerPelosi's trip to Taiwan, which was met with large-scale military exercises by the PLA ETC that surrounded the island.

Two additional Congressional delegations, the Governor of Indiana, and the Governor of Arizona also traveled to Taiwan this month.

These visits demonstrate increased public support for Taiwan by U.S. officials, driven by a general increase in support for Taiwan in the USA.

Another interesting development was/is the violation of Taiwan's airspace over Kinmen by PLA unmanned aircraft. This is a new development in the PRC's 'grey zone' tactics to put pressure on Taiwan's government and armed forces.

Now onto the data:

August 2022 saw the largest number of aircraft violating Taiwan's ADIZ since violations started being tracked. 444 aircraft were tracked by the @MoNDefense.

The largest previous total was in October 2021, which saw 196 aircraft tracked. Image

The largest number of violations in a single day this month was August 5th, with 49 aircraft tracked. This is the second-highest number of violations in a single day.

The highest single-day total is 56 aircraft tracked on October 4th, 2021. Image

The vast majority of aircraft tracked were fighter aircraft.

This month also had the highest ever ratio of combat aircraft to special mission and support aircraft. Image Image

August also had the highest variety of airframes, with 17 different airframes tracked. The largest previous variety was 14.

The most common airframe tracked in the ADIZ was the SU-30 fighter aircraft. This is the first time the SU-30 was the most common airframe. Image

August also had the highest number of days in a month where ADIZ violations were tracked. PLA aircraft violated Taiwan's ADIZ every day this month (31 days). The largest previous was October 2021 (29 days). Image

August also saw the highest number of Median Line violations. The Median Line was violated 28 days this month, for a total of 300 aircraft.

The highest previous total was 2 days and 22 aircraft in September 2020.

Total Median Line crossings are now 31 days and 323 aircraft.

Adding this month's data, the total number of sorties for 2022 to date is 1,069. The approximate grand total of sorties is 2,433.

August 2022 was a significant moment in ADIZ data.

In my view, one of the most notable aspects of this month's data is the Median Line violations. It will be interesting to see if the PLA continues a high number of these violations going forward.

That concludes the monthly report for August 2022.

It has definitely been an exciting month to take over the tracker, and I'm looking forward to continuing the work! Many thanks to everyone for their support!

I want to give another huge thank you to @GeraldC_Brown for letting me take over the tracker. The high volume of data this month was made simple to catalog because of his hard work over the last 2.5 years.

As always, here is the link to the tracker:


Taiwan ADIZ Violations Totals Taiwan ADIZ Violations,Last updated 9/2/2022,Source: ROC Ministry of National Defense,* "Unspecified" category consists of a mix of Y-8, J-10, and SU-30 aircraft sent early September 2020, pre… Taiwan ADIZ Violations

@mentions

Small correction, here is an updated version of the number of airframes tracked this month. The previous chart had J-1s which were misinputed J-11s. Image

Another small edit. The number of violations in August is 446, not 444. Two additional J-16s were tracked crossing the Median Line on 8/15/22.

Thanks to @bleedinteledge for the assist!

• • •Thread by @OfficialBen_L on Thread Reader App
 
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