WAR CHINA THREATENS TO INVADE TAIWAN

jward

passin' thru

Taiwan warns Russia, China ties 'harm' international peace - Insider Paper​


AFP​



Taiwan said on Friday ties between Russia and China were a threat to global peace and that the international community must resist the “expansion of authoritarianism”.
Russia’s Vladimir Putin met Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping for their first face-to-face talks since the start of the conflict in Ukraine on Thursday, hailing their strategic ties in defiance of the West.
In the Uzbek city of Samarkand, Xi told Putin he was “willing to make efforts with Russia to assume the role of great powers”.
Putin reiterated Russia’s support for China’s claim over self-ruled Taiwan which Beijing regards as its own territory and has vowed to one day seize.
The relationship between the two authoritarian leaders has rattled Taipei which fears Xi might one day follow Russia’s lead and invade a neighbour it has long threatened to subdue.
In a statement, Taiwan’s foreign ministry said it “severely condemns Russia for following the Chinese Communist Party’s authoritarian expansionist government to continue to make false statements at international venues that demean our country’s sovereignty”.
“(Russia) calls those who maintain peace and the status quo provocative, which highly demonstrates the harm caused by the alliance of Chinese and Russian authoritarian regimes on international peace, stability, democracy and freedom,” the statement added.

‘No limits’​

Formerly Cold War allies with a tempestuous relationship, China and Russia have drawn closer in recent years as part of what they call a “no-limits” relationship acting as a counterweight to the global dominance of the United States.
For Putin, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Samarkand comes at an important time, as his forces face major battlefield setbacks in Ukraine and a continued Western push to make Russia an international pariah.
For Xi, it is an opportunity to shore up his credentials as a global statesman ahead of a pivotal congress of the ruling Communist Party in October where he is expected to secure a precedent busting third term.

Beijing’s sabre-rattling towards Taiwan has intensified under Xi, China’s most assertive leader in a generation.
Tensions in the Taiwan Strait soared to their highest level in decades when China staged an unprecedented show of force in a furious response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei last month.
For a week after her visit, China sent warships, missiles and fighter jets into the waters and skies around Taiwan, which condemned the drills and missile tests as preparation for an invasion.
Xi has tied the “unification” of Taiwan to his signature “great rejuvenation” of China policy.
 

jward

passin' thru

Biden says U.S. forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion​


September 18, 20227:07 PM CDTLast Updated 11 min ago

1 minute



US President Joe Biden accompanied by the First Lady Jill Biden arrive at Buckingham Palace in London, Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022. Markus Schreiber/Pool via REUTERS

WASHINGTON, Sept 18 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden said in an interview broadcast on Sunday that U.S forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.
Asked in a CBS 60 Minutes interview if U.S. forces would defend the self-ruled island claimed by China, he replied: "Yes, if in fact, there was an unprecedented attack."
Asked to clarify if he meant that unlike in Ukraine U.S. forces, men and women, would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, Biden replied: "Yes."
 

jward

passin' thru
hmm :: shrug ::




EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
3m


Xi knows we will defend Taiwan, its all scripted, Biden tells Xi we will defend Taiwan, then Advisors walk it back. The TSMC plant is too strategic to let it fall in the hands of China.
Most likely Biden won't even be President if China chooses to attack Taiwan.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
hmm :: shrug ::


EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
3m


Xi knows we will defend Taiwan, its all scripted, Biden tells Xi we will defend Taiwan, then Advisors walk it back. The TSMC plant is too strategic to let it fall in the hands of China.
Most likely Biden won't even be President if China chooses to attack Taiwan.
I think a case could be made that China will attack Taiwan when Biden is president, he will be indecisive for the critical few weeks it takes for China to gain control of the island.

Joe will talk, talk and talk while China is gaining control of Taiwan.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic

Biden says U.S. forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion​


September 18, 20227:07 PM CDTLast Updated 11 min ago

1 minute



US President Joe Biden accompanied by the First Lady Jill Biden arrive at Buckingham Palace in London, Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022. Markus Schreiber/Pool via REUTERS

WASHINGTON, Sept 18 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden said in an interview broadcast on Sunday that U.S forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.
Asked in a CBS 60 Minutes interview if U.S. forces would defend the self-ruled island claimed by China, he replied: "Yes, if in fact, there was an unprecedented attack."
Asked to clarify if he meant that unlike in Ukraine U.S. forces, men and women, would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, Biden replied: "Yes."
That is Joe Biden politicking before the midterm elections.

The official date for the 2022 midterm elections is on Tuesday, November 8, 2022.

China may wait until the midterm elections are over before invading Taiwan to help the Democrats to win seats.
 

jward

passin' thru
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
11m

Update: US Secretary of the Air Force: If China invades Taiwan, the Taiwanese people will fight and I think we will help them in some way.
US Air Force Secretary: China will make a huge mistake by invading Taiwan.
US Air Force Secretary to China on Taiwan: The short war you imagine may not be the war you get.
 
Last edited:

jward

passin' thru

China dials down Taiwan rhetoric; US, Canada transit strait​


By KEN MORITSUGU​


BEIJING (AP) — China toned down its rhetoric on Taiwan on Wednesday, saying it is inevitable that the self-governing island will come under its control but that it would promote efforts to achieve that peacefully.
The comments followed recent remarks by President Joe Biden that the U.S. would defend Taiwan if China were to invade and came a day after U.S. and Canadian warships sailed through the Taiwan Strait.
They don’t appear to signal a change in policy as much as a broader attempt to calm the waters on multiple fronts in the runup to a major meeting of the ruling Communist Party next month.
“I would like to reiterate that … we are willing to strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and utmost efforts,” Ma Xiaoguang, the government spokesperson on Taiwan, said when asked about growing concern that China might resort to force.

China and Taiwan split in 1949 during a civil war that brought the Communist Party to power on the mainland. The rival Nationalists retreated to Taiwan and established their own government on the island off China’s east coast.
China launched missiles into the waters around Taiwan during major military exercises held last month in response to a visit by senior U.S. lawmaker Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the House of Representatives.
Ma, speaking at a news conference on the Taiwan issue, did not use the word force in his response, as he has in the past. Instead, he said that China would take “resolute measures” against any provocative moves by Taiwan or its international supporters.
He said that China would introduce more policies to help Taiwan, highlight the benefits of integration with China and encourage people-to-people exchanges.
“The motherland must be unified and will certainly be unified,” Ma said, calling it “a historical trend that no one can stop.”

But Taiwanese, who have grown accustomed to democratic freedoms, appear unlikely to join China voluntarily — particularly after China’s crackdown on dissent in Hong Kong, a former British colony returned to China in 1997.
China’s military, for the second time in recent weeks, noted the sailing of a U.S. warship through the Taiwan Strait without calling it provocative, as it had done earlier this year.
Chinese forces monitored the USS Higgins, a guided-missile destroyer, and a Canadian frigate, the HMCS Vancouver, spokesperson Col. Shi Yi said in a statement. He added that the military would resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin was more outspoken, accusing the U.S. of stirring up trouble and ganging up with other countries to exert pressure.
The U.S. Navy said in a statement that Tuesday’s joint maneuver “demonstrates the commitment of the United States and our allies and partners to a free and open Indo-Pacific.”
 

jward

passin' thru

Building Taiwan’s Own Area Denial Capabilities​


By Pei-Shiue Hsieh for The Diplomat​





Features | Security | East Asia


Taiwan can use long-range anti-ship missiles to create its own A2/AD strategy.


Hsiung Feng III anti-ship missile launchers on display in Taipei for Taiwan’s National Day, October 10, 2021
Credit: Office of the President, ROC (Taiwan)
The launch of China’s third aircraft carrier in June marked a new phase of military pressure on Taiwan. Chinese carrier strike groups, with full operational capability, strengthen Beijing’s blue-water power projection capabilities both to directly attack Taiwan and to prevent other countries from coming to the island’s aid. While some assert that Taiwan cannot counter a Chinese invasion on its own, the results of my analytical wargames show the opposite. The drills by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) last month likely demonstrated Beijing’s intentions to impose a naval blockade on the island in the event of a military confrontation. Taiwan’s military needs to prevent Chinese fleets from moving into their tactical positions or, if unable to prevent the blockade’s establishment, to disrupt ongoing PLA Navy (PLAN) operations.

While Chinese expansion of the PLAN and its capabilities do put Taiwan at risk, Chinese carrier strike groups are not without their vulnerabilities. Attacks on supply and support to the Chinese carrier strike group can damage the PLAN’s operational effectiveness. Specifically, the Type 901 Hulunhu-class fast combat support ship, of which the PLAN has two, is prime for targeting. China’s conventional-powered carriers, despite the fast-growing combat fleets, are still quite limited in their range and endurance, requiring support and logistics ships. Sinking these support ships would disrupt a Chinese blockade or amphibious invasion.

To achieve the aforementioned goal, Taiwan must develop its own anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy, which incorporates guided weapons and reconnaissance systems. Currently, Taiwan’s military possesses two possible options for guided anti-ship weapons: the ground-launched Hsiung Feng II/III and the ground- or air-launched AGM-84 Harpoon. With the reconnaissance information gathered by naval surveillance radars and MQ-9B SeaGuardian unmanned aerial vehicles, these legacy anti-ship missiles remain potent defenders of the island. However, as the PLAN is rapidly growing, Taiwan needs more than short- and medium-range options to cope with the PLA threat.
While these legacy systems are effective, they have capability gaps that reduce the effectiveness of Taiwan’s A2/AD plans. One option to close those gaps is the stealthy AGM-158C long-range anti-ship missile (LRASM). The AGM-158C is capable of conducting autonomous targeting and precision strike at standoff distances. Employing the AGM-158C to sink combat support ships, the Achilles’ heel of Chinese carrier strike groups, would inflict catastrophic damage on Chinese invasion plans and force the PLAN to station its fleets farther away from the island.

Building the Scenarios
I designed several scenarios to test and compare the effectiveness of these possible options, using Command: Modern Operations Professional Edition (CMO PE), a powerful commercial-off-the-shelf computer wargame software widely used by the U.S. armed services, NATO, allied militaries, and defense corporations. For example, Northrop Grumman Corporation selected CMO PE as the only wargame software being analyzed for the Gamebreaker program awarded by the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency. Moreover, CMO PE’s mechanisms for simulating and calculating fleet damage are more sophisticated than other options, including Synthetic Theater Operations Research Model (STORM) and Extended Air Defense Simulation (EADSIM). All weapons system specifications and data used in my simulations were from open-source intelligence (OSINT).

Scenario 1: Chinese Invasion
In the first scenario, the Chinese carrier strike group consisted of eight vessels: one aircraft carrier, one Type 901 fast combat support ship, one Type 055 missile destroyer, three Type 052D missile destroyers, one Type 052C missile destroyer, and one Type 054A missile frigate. The carrier and the combat support ship joined off the coast of Zhejiang province, which is around 220 nautical miles (nm) from northern Taiwan. The missile destroyers and frigate formed two air defense areas, which were 25 nm and 75 nm respectively ahead of the carrier. Carrier-based J-15s fighters and early warning aircraft conducted combat air patrol (CAP) missions out to a range of 175 nm ahead of the carrier.
The mission of Taiwan’s military was to impede a Chinese invasion by sinking the PLAN’s Type 901 combat support ship. In northern Taiwan, the Sky Bow II/III surface-to-air missiles were positioned to defend against air intrusions while E-2K Hawkeye early warning aircraft and MQ-9B provided airborne and maritime surveillance and reconnaissance. For this and the other scenarios, Taiwan received foreign intelligence and long-range targeting information akin to what Ukraine is receiving from the United States and other partners.

Three options tested were the AGM-84L Harpoon Block II, Hsiung Feng II/III, and AGM-158C LRASM. The F-16V, as Taiwan’s most advanced fighter, was selected for launching the air-to-surface guided missiles. Thanks to the capacity and scalability that CMO PE provides, I modified the simulation mechanism and mounted AGM-158Cs on the F-16Vs to test hypothetical scenarios. For each option, I executed at least 30 trials to reduce the possibility of biased results.
The simulation outcomes were clear. The limited range of the AGM-84L Harpoon (around 77 nm) makes it extremely difficult, if not impossible, for this option to sink the Type 901. In the simulations, F-16Vs had to fly at least 149 nm forward and penetrate the Chinese combat air patrol zone and naval outer air defense area in order to attack the Type 901 ship. This maneuver forced the air squadrons to expose themselves to heavy enemy fire without protection from the Sky Bow II/III surface-to-air missiles. By adding more F-16V sorties to carry out the missions, success rates did improve; nevertheless, the casualties would be too high to accept if we expect the mission success rates to reach approximately the same performance as the AGM-158C (more on this later).

In the second set of tests, the Hsiung Feng II/III missiles were unable to engage the Type 901 ship as a result of their limited range (80-135 nm) and ground-based launching platforms. After adjusting the scenario setting and sailing the Chinese fleets through the Miyako Strait, to the north of Taiwan, the Hsiung Feng II/III missiles were able to strike the designated target. However, that adjustment may raise a question about the reality of the scenario. A more realistic premise would be that the Chinese navy remains positioned outside the Hsiung Feng II/III bubble until it can be suppressed.
By adding the third, and for now hypothetical, option of using the AGM-158C, the Taiwanese started to turn the tables. The AGM-158C’s incredible 500 nm range allowed Taiwanese F-16Vs to launch strikes while protected by the Sky Bow II/III surface-to-air missile umbrella. Moreover, in the simulations, the AGM-158C missiles demonstrated the capability to consistently penetrate hostile air defense systems, sinking the Chinese Type 901 combat support ship. Obviously, the long-range anti-ship missile is a feasible and better option for sniping at Chinese vessels hiding behind their air defense shield.

Scenario 2: Naval Blockade
In the second scenario, the PLAN took the opportunity of military drills to transit through the Miyako Strait. A Chinese carrier strike group assembled in waters 220 nm away from eastern Taiwan, aiming to suppress Taiwan’s military bases and armed forces and to cut off the island’s connections to any possible foreign support. Taiwan’s goal was to sink the Type 901 ship and force the PLAN to retreat, eventually lifting the blockade.
Unlike the first scenario, the Chinese naval fleets in the Philippine Sea were now facing air threats from all directions. China’s carrier strike group not only had to counter anti-ship missiles from its western flank, but also left its eastern flank open to maritime attacks. During a U.S. Senate committee hearing, former U.S. PACOM Commander Adm. Harry Harris urged the faster development of LRASMs to counter PLA threats. The Pentagon has worked out an operation plan in recent years wherein B-1B Lancer strategic bombers or even C-17A Globemaster III airlifters traveling from Guam or the continental United States could launch AGM-158Cs against the Chinese navy. My proposition is that Taiwan’s Air Force can actually be the executor of this operational plan.

For this scenario, I further designed a mission that had Taiwanese F-16Vs launched from Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, carrying AGM-158Cs to sink the Chinese Type 901 combat support ship. The premise was that Taipei and Washington had a tacit agreement, allowing Taiwan to pre-position AGM-158Cs in Guam and to transit some F-16Vs with mounted conformal fuel tanks to the base once the PLAN’s drills turned hostile. With the assistance of aerial refueling and long-range targeting information from the United States, it took around two hours for Taiwan’s F-16Vs, taking off from Guam, to reach their attacking positions. The results were devastating for the Chinese Type 901 ships, as Taiwan was able to launch standoff attacks on the PLAN’s Achilles heel from both flanks. Regardless of the political barriers, my simulations demonstrated that this option is feasible at the tactical level.

Building Taiwan’s A2/AD Bubble
Overall, the purpose of this article was not to propose the AGM-158C as the sole countermeasure Taiwan needs; nor do I underestimate the value of the legacy Harpoons and other anti-ship weapons. Rather, AGM-158C missiles together with other defense options can strengthen Taiwan’s deterrence posture by forming a multi-layered anti-ship system. Ukraine’s sinking of the Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet, has already demonstrated that with intelligence sharing of targeting information a disadvantaged military can cause devastating damage to a stronger enemy force. To repel the PLAN, Taiwan needs more than just its legacy short- and medium-range countermeasures. The AGM-158C missiles will force the PLAN to position its carrier strike groups farther away from Taiwan and thus increase the uncertainty and risks of China’s operation plans.
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northern watch

TB Fanatic

Xi Tells Armed Forces Focus On Preparing For Wars As Geopolitical Flashpoints Intensify​

BY TYLER DURDEN
ZERO HEDGE
WEDNESDAY, SEP 21, 2022 - 10:40 PM

Coming off last week's Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Uzbekistan where the two leaders met, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute observes, "Xi has likely sensed the opportunity to use the Sino-Russian 'no limits' partnership to extract greater Russian resources from Putin in exchange for China’s continued backing."

"Despite his seemingly unimpressed face at the summit, Xi is unlikely to break ties with Putin over the lack of Russian progress in Ukraine. Russia simply remains too important a partner in China’s strategy to challenge the United States’ position in the Indo-Pacific," the institute's analysis adds.

And interesting given the timing, Xi on Wednesday - the same day that Putin declared a 'partial' national military mobilization - addressed a national military seminar, telling top officers to focus their attention on gearing up for potential military action on the horizon.



"It is imperative to conscientiously summarize and apply successful experience in reforms, to master new situations and [understand] the requirements of the tasks, to focus on preparing for wars, and to have the courage to explore and innovate," Xinhua News Agency quoted the Chinse president as saying.

He said further at the Beijing-hosted defense conference, which included high-ranking representatives of China's Central Military Commission (CMC), as well as the People's Armed Police Force and military academies, that major reforms to the nations armed forces he initiated starting years ago have been successful.

"Long-standing systemic obstructions, structural incongruities and policy issues in the development of national defense and the armed forces have been resolved," he told the top defense officials.

Last week's SCO conference involved moments where Putin seemed on the defensive, particularly in dialogue with China's Xi and India's Modi...

Meanwhile, on Tuesday a pair of Western warships make a provocative sail through of the contested Taiwan Strait, at a moment the PLA military continues its heavy patrol presence surrounding Taiwan in the wake of the early August Pelosi visit, as CNN describes:
US and Canadian warships sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday following weekend remarks from President Joe Biden that the US would defend Taiwan in the event it is attacked by China.
A US Navy ship, the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Higgins, conducted a “routine Taiwan Strait transit” on Tuesday, US Navy spokesperson Lt. Mark Langford said in a statement.
The US ship conducted the transit “in cooperation with Royal Canadian Navy Halifax-class frigate HMCS Vancouver,” Langford said.
It wasn't the first time Biden answered with a simple "yes" when pressed on whether the US would defend Taiwan if the island were invaded.

He issued the blunt response when asked in a CBS "60 Minutes" interview which aired Sunday what the US reaction would be if China decided to invade Taiwan. "Yes, if, in fact, there was an unprecedented attack," he said in a sit-down with CBS' Scott Pelley. Xi no doubt had such provocative comments from the US commander-in-chief fresh on his mind when he addressed Wednesday's military conference in Beijing.

 

jward

passin' thru
I've shared this theory a time or two myself, as recently as yesterday, here and elsewhere... unfortunately, I've concluded Biden isn't really unpredictable at this point: Whatever he says will be denied and walked back 180*, without fail, which of course is the epitomy of predictability.

A ‘senility theory’ of US foreign policy over Taiwan​


  • Richard Nixon made famous the madman theory of international politics and Donald Trump resurrected it. The idea is that erratic and unpredictable behaviour frightens your enemies into compliance. A president perceived to be mentally deficient making dangerously provocative statements such as over Taiwan may have a similar impac


Portraying the head of state as a madman, especially one in control of a vast nuclear arsenal and military force, can be a rational strategy. You may have heard of the madman theory in political science, nuclear deterrence and game theory. Those theories have been variously applied to analyse Richard Nixon, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and three generations of the Kim regime in North Korea.

No one would accuse US President Joe Biden of being a madman, but I am beginning to think whether playing at senility may have a comparable impact. Maybe we can call it the “senile old man theory”.
After all, everyone assumes that the US government will continue to function even if its commander-in-chief is crazy or mentally deficient. But a mad or senile sitting president – however you understand those words – can still have a great impact on foreign policy, and decisions on war and peace. That perception by his adversaries is what matters.
Whether Nixon really was irrational and volatile, he liked the Russian and Vietnamese communists to think so. Perception is all. In his thinking, your enemies will be more accommodating, or at least less inclined to take risks and be provocative, if they think you are unpredictable and may react disproportionately.
Nixon wasn’t completely “crazy” to think so. There is a rich and respectable literature in the social and political sciences behind the idea. Thomas Schelling, a giant in the development of game theory, won the Nobel economics prize in 2005 partly on the strength of his study of seemingly irrational behaviour as a strategy in a bargaining or competitive situation.


He was also an adviser to Stanley Kubrick’s 1964 classic satire on nuclear war, Dr Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb. In the movie, the Doomsday Machine and “General Ripper”, that is, the madman Brigadier General Jack D. Ripper represented nuclear-deterrent ideas of what Schelling calls “pre-commitment”, that is, both sides know once a nuclear war has started, they can’t halt it or disengage even if they both wanted to.
Though Schelling didn’t come up with the colourful name, he has been credited with originating the madman theory. The jury is still out on its usefulness. Some international relations scholars have argued it’s actually counterproductive and escalates conflicts.

You wonder, though, if a variant of the madman theory is being played out across the Taiwan Strait at the moment. Lately, Biden has kept saying the US will defend the island of Taiwan if mainland China attacks, no matter the circumstances.

We can all imagine scenarios. Maybe Taiwan decides to hold an island-wide referendum on independence or elects a president who vows to declare independence; or Taipei simply, unilaterally declares it. Maybe the mainland is provoked into attacking as a response; or it simply decides to strike first, to pre-empt independence and achieve unification. No matter, Biden seems to be saying, America will come to Taiwan’s defence, with its own troops.
He has said something like that four times since May last year (see my previous column). And each time, the White House walked back his statement. Observers, including yours truly, have argued that Biden is undermining the US’ long-standing policy on “one China”; turning “strategic ambiguity” into “strategic clarity” and encouraging the island towards independence.
Every Saturday

But how about this: intentional or not, Biden and the White House are making strategic ambiguity even more ambiguous. The president says one thing, hours later, the White House’s spin machine comes out to “clarify”: No, no, no, he really doesn’t mean that. The old policy on “one China” stays the same.

If you are sitting in Beijing, will you be considering all the possibilities? For example: 1. The septuagenarian president is senile and doesn’t know what he is talking about. 2. He is not senile but doesn’t know what he talking about. 3. He is not senile and knows what he is talking about. 4. Senile or not, the rest of the administration is happy to have him talking like a loose cannon so as to confuse and frighten the Chinese from acting hastily over Taiwan.

The fourth possibility is what I call the “senile old man theory”. There are, of course, other possibilities, such as that nobody responsible for Taiwan policy knows what’s going on at the White House, hence the confusion. But that would be an unlikely worst-case scenario.

The end result is that the US position over Taiwan is now even more ambiguous and confusing, however you like to call it. Relations between the US and China are at their worst since Nixon visited Beijing, and the mainland and the island are pushing each other into dangerous territory.

Interestingly, maybe it’s merely a coincidence, or not. After Biden’s latest stunt, Beijing appears to have softened its rhetoric over Taiwan. “I would like to reiterate that … we are willing to strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and utmost efforts,” said Ma Xiaoguang, of the State Council’s Taiwan Affairs Office. The statement is significant in that it came a day after US and Canadian warships jointly sailed through the Taiwan Strait.

If all sides try to calm waters and de-escalate because the US military posture is now even more ambiguous and confusing, is that really so bad?

 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm.........

Posted for fair use.....

DEFEAT CHINA’S NAVY, DEFEAT CHINA’S WAR PLAN​

ROBERT HADDICK
SEPTEMBER 21, 2022
COMMENTARY

Washington has already lost the war for Taiwan — at least according to the most recent wargames organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The think tank’s simulation of a conflict between the United States and China saw several U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups sunk, hundreds of U.S. combat aircraft destroyed, and thousands of U.S. military personnel lost in the war’s opening days.

These games, planned long before the most recent Taiwan crisis and set in 2026, add to decades of analyses of the Taiwan scenario conducted at war colleges and think tanks on both sides of the Pacific Ocean. Scheduled to be written up later this year, the games have reinforced at least one previously well-known conclusion: should the United States attempt to fight the battle for Taiwan relying mainly on military forces located west of Guam, U.S. losses will be severe. The United States and its allies might stalemate the People’s Liberation Army. But the cost could very well be too high for U.S. society to sustain. And if China’s leaders believe this, even wrongly, deterrence will collapse, and the risk of war will rise.

U.S. commanders in the Indo-Pacific will have to fight with the forces and weapons policymakers provide them. Recent wargames, like their predecessors, demonstrate the United States needs a better plan for defeating an attack on Taiwan. This means forces and concepts that match U.S. competitive advantages against China’s weaknesses while minimizing the number of forces U.S. commanders will have to position within range of China’s firepower.

Fortunately, a better matchup exists, one that focuses the U.S. bomber force against China’s navy and other maritime assets. China cannot take Taiwan, the Senkakus, or other territories in the region if its maritime power is destroyed. The U.S. bomber force could be a mortal threat to China’s maritime power if U.S. policymakers and military planners begin to properly prioritize it. By making China’s maritime assets the main target for the U.S. bomber force, then arming it accordingly, Washington would be well positioned to win a counter-maritime campaign in the western Pacific.

The Short, Unhappy Life of the Stand-In Force

U.S. stand-in forces, those based inside China’s missile range, are an important political commitment to America’s exposed allies in the region. At the same time, U.S. policymakers have overwhelmingly favored the acquisition of short-range tactical aircraft. The U.S. Air Force’s fighter-to-bomber ratio is currently 15.8-to-1 and all the U.S. Navy and Marine Corp strike aircraft are short-range. As a result, a stand-in force is one of the few choices available to commanders responsible for deterring or defeating a prospective Chinese assault.

China’s “counter-intervention” force structure is built around a long-range sensor-missile battle network that is designed to lure in and destroy high-profile U.S. forces such as aircraft carrier strike groups. A U.S. plan that crowds ever more vulnerable military assets inside the Chinese army’s 3,000-kilometer missile engagement zone would only enhance the lethality of Beijing’s response. U.S. military planners have studied how to disrupt China’s kill chain targeting U.S. forces. But China, like the United States, is launching new, distributed, resilient, and redundant imaging and communication satellite constellations to support its long-range sensor-missile battle network. These new constellations, each composed of scores, hundreds, and even thousands of small, networked satellites, will make breaking the kill chain very difficult for both sides.

According to the annual Military Balance database from the International Institute of Strategic Studies, the Chinese air force and navy operate over 200 bombers and roughly 1,400 fighter-attack aircraft, forces that have doubled over the past decade and continue to grow. Assuming the Chinese air force flies one-third of its fighter-attack and bomber aircraft daily (a conservative estimate during an extended air campaign), Chinese airpower could deliver about 1,400 precision land-attack and anti-ship missile shots per day, with several hundred able to reach fixed bases and surface warships as far away as Guam and the Second Island Chain.

Given this missile power, it is little surprise that multiple iterations of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ wargame predicted the destruction of two U.S. aircraft carriers and their carrier air wings. Another iteration saw the destruction of 900 U.S. aircraft, most lost on the ground from missile impacts on the handful of hub and dispersal bases available to U.S. and allied forces in the western Pacific. Another wargame had surviving U.S. aircraft carriers and warships fleeing east at flank speed to avoid destruction, a maneuver not likely to inspire much fighting spirit in the troops left behind to cope with China’s daily saturation missile bombardments.

These wargames are not the first to show such results. Chinese planners hope that tens of thousands of U.S. casualties inflicted over just a few days will result in demoralization and political defeat. With expected losses an order of magnitude higher than Pearl Harbor or 9/11, these planners could be right. But even if they are not, U.S. policymakers do not need to take this risk. Instead of deploying large numbers of stand-in forces within range of Chinese missiles, Washington should instead take advantage of its long-range striking power.

How to Fight From the Outside

The U.S. bomber force, even at just 141 aircraft, is a good matchup against the Chinese navy and China’s overall maritime capacity. The U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence forecasts that by 2030 China’s maritime force will total over 800 warships, quasi-military coast guard cutters, and large “maritime militia” ships. With the addition of large commercial cargo vessels, the Chinese maritime force for an invasion of Taiwan would likely number over a thousand surface ships.

Against this, U.S. bombers would be a stand-off force, operating from many bases largely outside the Chinese military’s reach and supported by the Air Force’s large and widely distributed airborne tanker force. A bomber-led campaign against China’s maritime assets would allow the United States to avoid exposing most of its stand-in forces, such as aircraft carriers, short-range strike aircraft, and ground troops, to the Chinese military’s firepower.

The bomber force would begin its attacks with long-range munitions, which reduce the risk to the aircraft themselves. For example, if the bomber force flew roughly one-third of its aircraft each day, it could deliver about 800 long-range missiles daily at fixed and moving maritime targets, at least until the bombers expended all these expensive and exotic munitions. New imaging and communication satellite constellations, operated by both the U.S. Space Force and private sector actors, could support the bombers’ counter-maritime mission.

Once the entire stockpile of stand-off missiles is depleted, it would be too dangerous for the non-stealthy B-52H and B-1B bombers to continue the counter-maritime campaign west of the First Island Chain. But America’s stealthy bombers could continue with shorter-range munitions.

How many stealthy bombers will the Air Force have in 2026? There are the 20 B-2As, perhaps 16 of which would be coded for combat. And there is the new B-21 Raider. Earlier this year, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall surprised listeners when he revealed that Northrup Grumman had five B-21s under assembly, not just two prototypes as was previously assumed. And the Air Force plans to buy at least one hundred B-21s by the mid-2030s.

This means the U.S. military will have at least ten or fifteen B-21s assembled by 2026. One open-source analysis projected 20 B-21s on hand by 2027. Between the B-2A force and a handful of B-21s in 2026, the Air Force could reasonably anticipate a rate of ten stealthy bombers sorties per day against China. By one estimate, that could yield over 300 1,000-pound precision weapon strikes per day against Chinese maritime targets, each delivering the same warhead weight as a Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile.

Munitions

Under current budget plans, the U.S. Air Force will have about 7,000 joint air-to-surface stand-off missiles and 149 long-range anti-ship missiles on hand in 2026. Launching 800 missiles per day would consume the entire stockpile of these long-range missiles in under ten days. That would put the United States in a dangerous position, even after striking Chinese forces that many times with precision 1,000-pound warheads.

The Air Force is also acquiring the Small Diameter Bomb II, or “Storm Breaker.” This is a lightweight munition designed to precisely strike moving targets up to forty miles away, day and night, in all weather, while overcoming enemy countermeasures. The service plans to have 6,023 of these weapons ready by 2026. As demonstrated by the Air Force Research Lab’s “Quicksink” tests, these munitions could be complemented by attaching precision-attack sensors on standard 2,000-pound bombs.

Mark Gunzinger of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies has proposed a new affordable mid-range munition that would allow the Air Force’s stealthy bombers to attack targets at a safe range from air defenses while also being cheap enough for the service to acquire rapidly and in large numbers. Gunzinger’s solution, using existing and proven components, would sustain a campaign against the Chinese Navy past ten days. This munition would maximize the competitive advantages of the stealthy B-2A and B-21 bombers.

With a better munitions plan, the Air Force’s bombers would be a strong matchup against China’s maritime forces. Yet when asked last year by a journalist why the Air Force plans to buy as many as 7,547 joint air-to-surface standoff missiles – which are deadly, but only against fixed targets – and just 179 long-range anti-ship missiles over the life of that program, an Air Force acquisition general replied that it was due to “the target set we’re going after.”

Conclusion

Destroying China’s maritime power would end China’s capacity for conquest in the western Pacific. Yet the Chinese navy is not an Air Force priority, despite its vulnerability to U.S. bombers. As Taiwan-focused wargames show, the shortage of U.S. anti-ship munitions represents a missed opportunity that will come with high costs.

Civilian policymakers should make China’s maritime forces a top targeting priority for the U.S. bomber force. First, they should require Air Force officials to explain how their munitions strategy supports deterrence by denial against Chinese forces. Following that, they could demand the Air Force fund the rapid development of Mark Gunzinger’s affordable mid-range munition and acquire, say, 2,000 long-range anti-ship missiles, even if this means acquiring fewer joint air-to-surface standoff missiles. Policymakers could also demand the Air Force repair and return to service some of the 17 B-1B bombers that were recently sent to the boneyard despite each being able to carry 24 long-range anti-ship missiles. These relatively minor expenses would quickly add substantial striking power against the Chinese Navy.

More broadly, policymakers should recognize that the sensor-missile military-technical revolution has transformed the Indo-Pacific into a military theater where long-range aerospace power dominates. America’s aerospace power is an enduring competitive advantage that matches up well against several Chinese vulnerabilities, starting with its navy. Exploiting this competitive advantage is the most direct way to strengthen U.S. deterrence in the Indo-Pacific region.



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Robert Haddick is a visiting senior fellow at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, Air & Space Forces Association. Naval Institute Press just published his new book “Fire on the Water, Second Edition: China, America, and the Future of the Pacific.” He is also the director of research at Champion Hill Ventures, based in Chapel Hill.
 

jward

passin' thru

China blockade would be act of war, Taiwan would not surrender, official says​


September 23, 20228:26 AM UTCLast Updated ago​




A Taiwan Coast Guard ship travels past the coast of China, in the waters off Nangan island of Matsu archipelago in Taiwan August 16, 2022. REUTERS/Ann Wang

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TAIPEI, Sept 23 (Reuters) - A Chinese blockade of Taiwan or the seizure of an offshore island would be considered an act of war and Taiwan would not surrender, a senior Taiwanese security official told Reuters using unusually strong and direct language.
While Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and others in her administration have repeatedly said that while they want peace they would defend themselves if attacked, the details of what Taiwan would consider an attack warranting a response have generally been left unsaid, given the many scenarios.
Chinese military action might not be as straightforward as a full frontal assault on Taiwan: it could include actions like a blockade to try to force Taiwan to accept China's rule, strategists say.

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Tension between Beijing, which views Taiwan as its own territory, and Taipei have spiked since U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island in early August.
To show its anger, China mounted military exercises around Taiwan that included firing missiles and steps to mount a blockade. China has since then continued its military activities, though on a smaller scale.
That has focused attention in Taiwan and capitals of friendly countries, like the United States and Japan, on how a any conflict with China could play out, and how Taiwan and its allies might respond.
The senior Taiwanese security official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said China's drills after the Pelosi visit had shown what might happen in case the worst came to the worst, and focused thought on how Taiwan would react.
"A blockade is an act of war; seizing an offshore island is an act of war," the official said, adding Taipei believed Beijing was unlikely to take either of those actions at the moment.
"Their only purpose to seize (offshore islands) is to force us to negotiate or surrender. But we will not surrender or negotiate."
Short of an outright invasion, many military strategists, and even Taiwan's defence ministry, have said China could try and seize one of Taiwan's offshore islands, like the Kinmen and Matsu archipelagos, just off China's coast.
"Those are military actions. There is no room for ambiguity," the official said.
China's Taiwan Affairs Office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

'BUILDING DETERRENCE'​

The official said Taipei did not rule out the possibility of Beijing launching large-scale military exercises near Taiwan next year, when the island gears up for a presidential election in early 2024.
"This is what we are worried about at the moment," the official said, adding other possible Chinese actions could include stepping up its "grey-zone" tactics near Taiwan including incursions with militia boats or cyber attacks.
The official said countries other than the United States, which sails warships through the Taiwan Strait about once a month, should show Beijing that an attack on Taiwan would not go unanswered.
"Building up deterrence is very important. Not just America, European countries and Japan should join the force of deterrence."
U.S. President Joe Biden said in comments broadcast on Sunday that U.S forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, his most explicit statement on the issue.
With the world's most advanced semiconductors produced in Taiwan, it is in the world's interest to ensure stability, the official said.

"Pressure in the Taiwan Strait is pressuring chip supplies."
Tsai, who has said Taiwan would not provoke China or "rashly advance", has made bolstering defence a priority, including a double-digit increase in defence spending next year.
While China has said it prefers peaceful "reunification" and has offered Taiwan a Hong Kong-style autonomy deal, it has never renounced the use of force to bring the island under its control.
Taiwan's democratically elected government says only Taiwan's people can decide their future.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic

China using civilian ships to enhance navy capability, reach​

China has been increasingly using civilian ships including hundreds of fishing trawlers to back up its vast territorial claims and project military power
By DAVID RISING Associated Press
September 24, 2022, 4:44 AM

Foreign vessels, some of them have Chinese flags, fish near Torishima, Japan, on Oct. 31, 2014. A Chinese scientific ship bristling with surveillance equipment docked in a Sri Lankan port. Hundreds of fishing boats anchored for months at a time among

Foreign vessels, some of them have Chinese flags, fish near Torishima, Japan, on Oct. 31, 2014. A Chinese scientific ship bristling with surveillance equipment docked in a Sri Lankan port. Hundreds of fishing boats anchored for months at a time among disputed islands in the South China Sea. And ocean-going ferries, built to be capable of carrying heavy vehicles and large loads of people. (Kyodo News via AP)
The Associated Press

BANGKOK -- A Chinese scientific ship bristling with surveillance equipment docked in a Sri Lankan port. Hundreds of fishing boats anchored for months at a time among disputed islands in the South China Sea. And ocean-going ferries, built to be capable of carrying heavy vehicles and large loads of people.

All are ostensibly civilian ships, but experts and uneasy regional governments say they are part of a Chinese civil-military fusion strategy, little concealed by Beijing, that enhances its maritime capabilities.

China’s navy is already the world’s largest by ship count, and has been rapidly building new warships as part of a wider military expansion. It launched its first domestically designed and built aircraft carrier in June, and at least five new destroyers are on the way soon.

The buildup comes as Beijing attempts to exert broader influence in the region. It is increasing its military activities around the self-governing island of Taiwan, seeking new security agreements with Pacific islands and building artificial islands in disputed waters to fortify its territorial claims in the South China Sea, which the U.S. and its allies have challenged.

The civilian vessels do more than just augment the raw numbers of ships, performing tasks that would be difficult for the military to carry out.

In the South China Sea's Spratly Islands, for example, China pays commercial trawlers more than they can make by fishing simply to drop anchor for a minimum of 280 days a year to support Beijing’s claim to the disputed archipelago, said Gregory Poling, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative.

“China is able to use nominally civilian vessels that are clearly state directed, state paid to eat away the sovereignty of its neighbors, but then plausibly deny that the state is responsible,” he said.

China has been using civilian fishing trawlers for military purposes for decades, but has significantly increased the numbers recently with the creation of a “Spratly Backbone Fleet” out of a government subsidy program begun under President Xi Jinping, which helps cover building new vessels, among other things.

Those ships “largely appeared almost overnight” after China constructed port infrastructure a few years ago on the artificial islands it built in the Spratlys that could be used for resupply, Poling said.

Now there are about 300 to 400 vessels deployed there at any given time, he said.

The Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and others also have claims to the Spratly Islands, which sit in a productive fishing area and important shipping lane, and are thought to hold untapped reserves of natural gas and oil.

But the Chinese ships deter other trawlers from fishing in the area, and have been slowly displacing them from the grounds, with little that governments can do, said Jay Batongbacal, who heads the University of the Philippines' Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea.

“Because they are ostensibly civilian fishing vessels, navies' ships are unable to deal with them lest China accuse the Philippines of provoking an incident and using force against civilians,” he said. “They take advantage of perceived ‘grey zones’ below the threshold for triggering a self-defense response.”

In one highly publicized incident, a steel Chinese trawler in 2019 rammed and sank a wooden-hulled Filipino boat at anchor northeast of the Spratly Islands, abandoning its crew to be rescued later by a Vietnamese fishing boat. Despite a diplomatic protest from the Philippines, China denied the incident was intentional, calling it an “accidental collision.”

In addition to about 800 to 1,000 commercial fishing boats in the Spratly fleet, China has approximately 200 other vessels as part of a professional maritime militia, according to a November study co-authored by Poling based on an analysis of official Chinese reports, satellite imagery and other sources.

The professional militia is better equipped, with trained crews and under direct state control, and is used for more aggressive operations such as harassing foreign oil and gas operations, Poling said.

In the event of a conflict, China’s use of civilian vessels would complicate the rules of engagement, he said.

“You don't want to treat every Chinese fishing boat as if it were an armed combatant, but, in fact, some of them may well be armed combatants,” Poling said.

China has also been deploying civilian research vessels for military-related tasks in areas where its navy would be unable to operate without provoking a response, said Ridzwan Rahmat, a Singapore-based analyst with the defense intelligence company Janes.

“If you deploy grey hull vessels, your adversary may also deploy a grey hull vessel as a reciprocal measure, so that makes it more dangerous for everyone,” he said, referring to the typical color of military ships. “So to avoid this, China has been deploying white hull vessels — to reinforce its presence without escalating things.”

There are also many Western export controls prohibiting sensitive technology from being sent to China for military use, which China is able to bypass by building such civilian ships, even though “in everything but name they’re military,” Rahmat said.

The autonomously piloted Zhu Hai Yun is believed to be one such ship, capable of launching airborne, surface and underwater drones “to carry out marine scientific research,” according to the Chinese state-run Global Times.

The ship, which completed its first autonomous sea trial in June, could also create military maps of the South China Sea floor, including important submarine lanes around Taiwan, Rahmat said.

“China has been increasing its submarine deterrent patrols, and in order to ensure it can do this it needs to map the underwater terrain,” he said.

China’s methods drew the ire of regional rival India last month when it sought to dock the Yuan Wang 5 in Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port, not far from India’s southeast coast, for refueling at a time that New Delhi was preparing to test a new missile.

The vessel is officially a scientific research ship equipped with sensors that can be used to track satellites, but the same equipment can be used to gather data on a missile launch.

Sri Lanka, in the midst of an economic crisis and heavily reliant on aid from India, initially declined to allow the ship to dock over India's concerns.

But China operates the Hambantota Port, having been granted a 99-year lease on the facility — built with Chinese money — after Sri Lanka defaulted on loans in 2017. After high-level consultations with Beijing, Sri Lankan authorities backtracked and allowed the Yuan Wang 5 to dock from Aug. 16 to Aug. 22.

On Aug. 23, India successfully tested its new surface-to-air missile designed to defend a ship from close-range aerial threats.

“I suspect the launch was delayed until the Chinese spy ship was gone,” Rahmat said.

China hasn't tried to disguise its military use of civilian ocean-going ferries, which have had to meet defense standards since 2016 allowing them to accommodate military vehicles like tanks, said Mike Dahm, a retired U.S. Navy intelligence officer who has written on the topic for the U.S. Naval War College China Maritime Studies Institute.

Slickly produced state television videos showing trainloads of military vehicles and troops boarding the vessels and heading to sea, stating openly they are testing “how to use civilian transportation resources to execute military tasks.” The latest such exercise wrapped up earlier this month.

This could be meant to intimidate Taiwan, which China claims as its own and has not ruled out attempting to take by force, and also dovetails with the Chinese government’s message that the public is contributing to national security, Dahm said.

China at the moment does not possess enough amphibious craft to transport the number of troops needed 160 kilometers (100 miles) across the Taiwan Strait for a potential beach landing on the island, and the ferries could be a stopgap measure should a crisis prompt China to decide to invade, Rahmat said.

China also may not want to take on the expense of building and maintaining a “huge amphibious armada” for an indeterminate period of time, Dahm said.

Military amphibious craft are built to land troops and vehicles on a beach, whereas ferries provide port-to-port movement, which would mean they would only be effective if China can capture Taiwanese ports in serviceable condition, Dahm said.

Still, in a crisis, China's People's Liberation Army could attempt a chancy gambit like offloading amphibious vehicles from the ferries at sea or using floating causeways, Dahm said.

“There is always the possibility that the PLA could commit to a high-risk operation against Taiwan with the possibility of losing a large number of civilian ships,” he said.

———

Associated Press writers Jim Gomez in Manila, Philippines, and Ashok Sharma in New Delhi contributed to this story.

 

jward

passin' thru

Taiwan IDF jet test fires Wan Chien air-to-ground cruise missile​


Military-run MNCSIST can produce up to 50 Wan Chien missiles per year​


1576


By Matthew Strong, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
2022/09/24 16:56

[IMG alt="An IDF jet equipped with Wan Chien cruise missiles.
"]https://tnimage.s3.hicloud.net.tw/photos/2022/09/24/1664009448-632ec4e87c379.jpg[/IMG]

An IDF jet equipped with Wan Chien cruise missiles. (Wikimedia Commons photo)


TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — An Indigenous Defense Fighter (IDF) fired a Wan Chien air-to-ground cruise missile for the first time in an exercise earlier in the week, reports said Saturday (Sept. 24).

Since China conducted large-scale military maneuvers close to Taiwan in the wake of United States House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Aug. 2-3 visit, the military has been stepping up the pace of its maneuvers.

On Wednesday (Sept. 21), an IDF jet equipped with two Wan Chien missiles flew out on a mission and successfully fired one of the projectiles, the Liberty Times reported. The subsonic cruise missile is developed by one of Taiwan’s top weapons makers, the military-run National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST).

The missile used in Wednesday’s exercise was reportedly one of the first of a mass-produced batch, while Wan Chien missiles previously shown to the public were just part of a limited early series, reports said.

The NCSIST will produce 50 of the missiles per year, as part of a NT$12.5 billion ($393.26 million) budget which also covers the construction of three storage sites. While the missile’s reach is 200 kilometers, an upgraded version being researched would be able to hit airports and other targets up to 400 km away, the report said.

 

Knoxville's Joker

Has No Life - Lives on TB
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hz3oYwKYsk0

China’s military weak points: full analysis on Chinese army revealed​

10m29s

China’s military growth has been fast in the last 20 years. Reports of Chinese military activity in neighboring territories, particularly near Taiwan, have raised concerns about China's military strength.

So they modernized, but they never built up amphibious or air delivery methods.

More to the point if there is a medium of hits on air and sea transports, china's invasion efforts would literally get sunk. Especially if the ports they intend to use all get mined and destroyed ahead of their attempts to campture things.
 

jward

passin' thru
Odds of China invading Taiwan up 'drastically,' government think tank says

Chinese President Xi Jinping may even decide to use an invasion to deflect attention from his country’s stumbling economy
Sep 27, 2022 • 17 hours ago • 4 minute read •
99 Comments
Members of the Taiwanese navy stand in front of a U.S.-made missile on a frigate at a naval base in Penghu Islands, Taiwan, on Aug. 30.
Members of the Taiwanese navy stand in front of a U.S.-made missile on a frigate at a naval base in Penghu Islands, Taiwan, on Aug. 30. Photo by Ann Wang/Reuters

TAIPEI, Taiwan — The chances of China invading Taiwan have risen “drastically” recently, as the island readies to fight with or without international support, say analysts at a think tank created by the Taiwanese government.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping may even decide to use an invasion to deflect attention from his country’s stumbling economy and other domestic woes, the Institute for National Defence and Security Research suggested to a group of foreign journalists Monday.
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But they said Canada’s decision to send warships through the Taiwan Strait is a useful counterpoint to Beijing’s claim that it owns the stretch of ocean separating the island from mainland China.

Canada's Industry Minister John Manley meets with Taiwan's Council for Economic Planning and Development Chairman Chiang Pin-kung in Taipei, September 10, 1998. “It was a different era both politically and economically,” Manley now says regarding the lack of “major pushback” from China at the time over his three day visit to Taiwan.
Last Canadian cabinet minister to visit Taiwan on China's more aggressive foreign policy
A globe is seen in front of Chinese and Taiwanese flags in this illustration, August 6, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
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Their grim predictions of a looming attack come as tensions rise around the democratically governed territory, which Beijing insists is a renegade province that must be folded into the People’s Republic.
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The key may be whether — as expected — Xi is returned for a third term when the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) holds its 20th National Congress next month, said institute fellow Christina Chen.

“Xi is the leader who always has this reunification in mind and he wants to kind of make this his personal historical legacy. So if he does become re-elected, it is very likely he will try to fulfill this goal of reunification,” said Chen.

“We always have to bear this in mind, that the invasion is very likely, the likelihood has gone up drastically over the recent time.”

Outside on the streets of Taipei Monday, life went on as usual, the graceful, densely populated capital city teeming with traffic and pedestrians.

China has always insisted that Taiwan belongs to the People’s Republic and Xi has talked about peaceful “reunification.” But he’s never ruled out using military force and his government has ratcheted up rhetoric and threats around the issue in recent months.
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When Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, visited Taipei to show her support in August, Beijing responded with a military show of force that saw naval ships surround Taiwan and missiles fired overhead.

At the United Nations General Assembly on Saturday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said any attempt to prevent “reunification” of Taiwan with the mainland would be “crushed by the wheels of history” and outside interference met with “the most forceful steps.”

His comments came after U.S. President Joe Biden said America would come to Taiwan’s defence if attacked.

Chen said analysts believe the domestic situation in China will be an important predictor of its military intentions toward Taiwan.
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“The CCP is running into a lot of trouble. Economy-wise it’s not doing well — a stagnating economy. People are not happy about the (zero-COVID) policy,” she said. “It may make the CCP want to use external aggression to divert the domestic public attention.”

Ming-Shih Shen, the publicly funded institute’s acting deputy CEO, said China would likely not launch an amphibious landing on its own, but first try to destroy Taiwan’s defences from the air.

It may be able to then land an invasion force of more than 300,000 soldiers, but Taiwan’s reserve system could see three million people mobilized to defend the homeland, he said.

Speculation has suggested that 2027 is the year China will invade, given that year will be the 100th anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army and Xi has urged the armed forces to modernize by then.
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Shen said he doesn’t believe China is ready to attack yet, though if Taiwan — which already considers itself a sovereign nation — were to formally declare independence, “no matter whether China is ready or not, they will invade.”

Meanwhile, for planning purposes, at least, Taiwan assumes it will get no backing from other countries in the event of a Chinese attack, despite Biden’s recent comments. But in planning for the worst, the Taiwanese are also hoping for the best, researchers suggested.

“In our operational plan, we don’t have any United States military intervention,” said Shen, who also said he is convinced that the U.S. will, indeed, help. “In our thinking, we will fight by ourselves.”

“In each and every war gaming or table-top exercise we participate in, we have never, ever put our side with external military aid,” said analyst Yisuo Tseng.

One agency analyst praised the sail-past last week by a Canadian and an American warship, the second joint transit by the nations in less than a year, calling it an answer to Beijing’s erroneous claims about the waterway.

“Canadian warships patrolling through the Taiwan Strait is, I would say, a very positive step in the right direction, to make the announcement that the Taiwan Strait is no internal waters of China,” said Tseng.

(The National Post is in Taiwan at the invitation and with the support of the Taiwanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which has no input on the coverage.)
 

jward

passin' thru
PLAOps
@PLAOpsOSINT

Shedding light on #China and #PLA operational proficiency. All opinions are my own. RT =/= endorsement

How does the PLA intend to conduct amphibious assaults? Well, the easiest way is to let them show us. A Image

1/ An older video from CCTV was originally posted around 2019/2020, but was scrubbed from the internet. This Youtuber managed to upload a copy, which shows the entirety of the op:

2/ The process begins with amphibious IFVs entering into their respective carriers - whether it's an LPD, LHD, or a RO-RO ship. Image

3/ In this particular exercise, we saw load up their ships in the daytime, and then launch the amphibious assault portion of the exercise at night Image

4/ The first wave are recon troops in small crafts, their intent is not to make contact but to infiltrate deep behind enemy lines and establish OPs to identify high value targets: artillery and missile batteries, which will be destroyed by fires

5/ When the full amphibious assault begins at day time, the exercising forces (73rd Group Army) makes use of unmanned platforms to clear any sea mines that may impede the main landing force. Image

6/ Simultaneously, helicopters take off and begin suppressing shore defenders to allow the first wave of small crafts and engineers to make landfall. Helicopters also carry SOF that are expected to be inserted behind shore defenders Image

7/ This is when amphibious IFVs are deployed, coordinating with helicopters, artillery, and special forces, and EWar during landing ops, to seize a beachhead. The ZBD-05--can be configured in a number of ways: 30mm autocannons, 105mm guns, and ATGMs Image

8/ If the initial wave of engineers in small crafts have done their jobs to sufficiently clear out shore defense obstacles, then there will be cleared lanes for the IFVs to traverse on Image

9/ The PLA also loves showing off any new "high tech" toys they have. And of all the different (and sometimes quite hilarious) equipment they've shown over the years, these autonomous vehicle ammo carriers are the most practical ones I've seen Image

10/ Once shore defenders are sufficiently degraded, follow on forces--usually the heavy or medium CABDEs--will be brought ashore. Shown here is a RORO ship unloading tanks onto a floating pier Image

11/ @tshugart3 has done a fantastic write up on estimating PLA RORO ship transport capacity - highly recommended as he goes into some back of napkin math that estimates the amount the PLA can transport using those assets alone
Unroll available on Thread Reader


12/ The US naval war college also has done an in depth look at total sealift capacity of the PLA, especially once their civilian assets have been accounted for - a must read:
digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewconten…

13/ Also, People's War never stopped being the PLA doctrine. In an amphibious operation, PLA fully intends on using civil assets to shore up any logistical deficiencies they still have at the moment of disembarkation Image

14/ The previously tweeted photo names this updated doctrine as "New style People's War under informatized conditions"

15/ Back to the amphibious ops, one thing worth noting is that the vast majority of the ETC's heavy brigades are located in the Jiangsu-Shandong region - approximate locations Image

16/ This matches up with the location of the Bohai RORO ferries, which typically operate north of the Shandong peninsula. In the event of a Taiwan invasion scenario, these ferries will pick up their intended forces from the north and sail down

17/ In fact, we've seen them make this transit many times - again, @tshugart3 has done the legwork on this:
Unroll available on Thread Reader

Image

18/ Another thing worth noting is that our own myopic desire to see China collapse may cause us to miss what could otherwise be very obvious operations - for example:

19/ This was a RORO ship loading exercise done in July of 2022 in the port city of Rizhao, but for roughly 48 hours, the internet was convinced this was to suppress protests in Henan.

20/ These kinds of wishful thinking could lead to a low-probability, but not impossible situation where PLA movements for invasion are misinterpreted as suppressing internal revolts

21/ In many amphibious exercises, Fujian is the destination, not the point of embarkation. Obsessively focusing on force mustering in Fujian may lead to us missing force mustering elsewhere. Image

22/ The use of RORO ships for follow on forces also gives us an idea for where the PLA intends on actually assaulting. Rather than the 14 beaches that are frequently touted as the only landing sites, PLA targets will likely aim for large ports: Keelung, Kaohsiung, and Tainan

23/ The beaches are more likely to be a diversionary front to pull away shore defenders from other areas for destruction by fire from the numerous assets available to the PLA: rotary, UAS, and long-range artillery

24/ Even if beaches are not diversionary, the presence of mobile piers also increases the number of suitable beachheads from 14 to, well, a lot more than 14.

25/ Assuming there are only X number of landing sites available to the PLA was the mistake the ROC made in 1950 for the Hainan campaign. They immediately concentrated forces on one sector while the PLA continued to land unopposed elsewhere Image

26/ The proximity of Taiwan to the mainland and the imbalance of firepower assets allow the PLA to concentrate fire support on any sector of their choosing at will. The limited size of Taiwan itself means there are few areas where the defenders can concentrate Image

27/ Defenders who attempt to move to other areas to reinforce friendly forces will come under attack from air inserted SOF to their rear, the shore party to their front, and indirect fire from the mainland.

28/ And given the manpower shortage, training deficiency, and hollowed reserves system, the ROC's stated goal of stopping the PLA either in the Strait or on the beaches is truly an elaborate form of suicide. The end

• • •
 

jward

passin' thru
US defense chief sidesteps questions on Biden’s pledge to defend Taiwan
Julia Mueller
3 minutes

Lloyd Austin
AP/Roman Koksarov

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin talks during the press conference with Minister of Defence of Latvia Artis Pabriks during the press conference in Riga, Latvia, Wednesday, Aug. 10, 2022. (AP Photo/Roman Koksarov)

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Sunday dodged questions about whether the U.S. would defend Taiwan against an invasion from China.

“In accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act, you know, we were committed to helping Taiwan develop the capability to defend itself and that work has gone on over time,” Austin told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on “GPS.”

President Biden last month in a “60 Minutes” interview said the U.S. military would take action to defend Taiwan against “an unprecedented attack,” a position that takes a step further than the U.S. is obligated under current policy.

The 1979 policy committed the U.S. to helping provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, but didn’t commit troops. Biden’s recent interviews, though, have suggested that the U.S. would intervene in a potential invasion from China, which claims the self-governed island as its own.

Pressed on the discrepancy, Austin said “the American military is always prepared to protect our interests and live up to our commitments” but didn’t confirm whether the U.S. was specifically prepared to intervene in a China-Taiwan spat.

“I think the president was clear in providing his answers as he responded to a hypothetical question, but, again, we continue to work to make sure that we have the right capabilities in the right places to ensure that we help our allies maintain a free and open Indo Pacific,” Austin said.

Tensions further heightened earlier this year when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) added Taiwan to her congressional delegation tour of Asia. China was vocal about its upset over the visit and appeared to retaliate against the island.

The defense secretary on Sunday said he didn’t see “an imminent invasion” on the horizon, but noted that China appears to be trying to establish “a new normal” by increasing its presence in the air space and waters around the Taiwan Strait.

The U.S. has maintained a stance of strategic ambiguity with regard to China and Taiwan, maintaining the Taiwan Relations Act but also accepting the “One China” policy, under which Taiwan isn’t recognized as a state separate from China.
 

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Taiwan will fight back if China crosses red line: Defense minister
Taiwan News
4-5 minutes

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Chiu says China 'deliberately destroyed' the median line to establish new normal

(Facebook, ROCMarineCorp photo)

(Facebook, ROCMarineCorp photo)

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan's defense minister on Wednesday (Oct. 5) said that China has already destroyed the median line, but if it crosses Taiwan's red line on the east side of the strait, Taiwan will definitely counter-attack.

In early August, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) set up six live-fire zones for military exercises in the waters surrounding Taiwan and fired 11 Dongfeng ballistic missiles into some of these areas. After the exercises were completed, the PLA ramped up its intrusions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) and crossed the median line on multiple occasions.

During a meeting of the Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee in the Legislative Yuan on Wednesday (Oct. 5), Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator Lo Chih-cheng (羅致政) asked Minister of National Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng (邱國正) if the median line still exists. Chiu responded by saying that the median line in the Taiwan Strait was originally a tacit agreement, but this tacit understanding has "already been destroyed by the CCP," and it will be difficult to restore it to its previous state.

However, Chiu said that Taiwan's armed forces also have patrol areas and training zones east of the median line, which has not changed. Chiu said that the military will stand firm and not give in and that it has a red line.

He said that if that red line is crossed, the armed forces will "definitely fight back." Lo then asked whether the concept of "first strike" is not just limited to the enemy launching artillery shells, but also includes the enemy entering Taiwan's airspace with fighter jets. Chiu simply responded by saying, "Yes, that's right."

As for his assessment of the difference between PLA military strength in the past compared to its strength during post-August military exercises, Chiu said that the only differences are the increase in strength and the demonstration of many "firsts," such as the "first joint operation," "the first time to get so close to Taiwan," "the first time to form a siege."

The defense minister said that the purpose was to make Taiwan feel pressure and the intensity, quantity, and frequency of military activity were increasing.

Lo then asked whether the Ministry of National Defense agreed with the interpretation of the PLA's military exercise as a "quasi-blockade" of Taiwan. Chiu pointed out that these exercises are all in preparation for combat.

He said that a blockade is a stage, and it depends on how the CCP will proceed in the future, but as long as there is such an action, it is a blockade. The minister said that the CCP really wants to change the status quo and establish a new normal, and some aspects have changed and cannot be restored to their past state.
 

Bolerpuller

Contributing Member

Taiwan vows to respond to China’s military flight incursions​


TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — Taiwan’s defense minister on Wednesday said the island will respond to incursions into its airspace by Chinese warplanes and drones, but gave no details on specific actions.

Responding to questions from legislators, Chiu Kuo-cheng said China’s newly aggressive stance had changed what Taiwan would define as a “first strike” that would necessitate a response.

China stepped up its military exercises, fired missiles into waters near Taiwan and sent warplanes across the dividing line in the Taiwan Strait in response to an August visit to the island by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the highest-ranking American official to visit Taiwan in 25 years.

China denies the existence of the median line in the Taiwan Strait and challenged established norms by firing missiles over Taiwan into Japan’s exclusive economic zone.

“We initially said we do not make the first strike ... if they haven’t done the first strike, which means firing a projectile or a missile,” Chiu said. “But the situation has obviously changed.”


Asked by legislator Lo Chih-cheng of the governing Democratic Progressive Party if an incursion into Taiwanese airspace by a Chinese warplane would count as a first strike, Chiu responded in the affirmative.
 

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Taiwan says it will not rely on others for defense
October 5, 20221:48 PM CDT Last Updated 5 hours ago
4-5 minutes

WASHINGTON, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Taiwan will not rely on others for its defense, President Tsai Ing-wen said on Wednesday, while welcoming a U.S. commitment to the democratically governed island's security during what she called Chinese encroachment on its sovereignty.

Tsai's remarks, pre-recorded and delivered to a U.S. audience at a Washington forum, come after U.S. President Joe Biden pledged in September to defend Taiwan in the event of any "unprecedented attack" by China.

In her address to the Washington-based Global Taiwan Institute think tank, Tsai thanked the Biden administration and the U.S. Congress for upholding the U.S. commitment to Taiwan's security and for recent U.S. military arms sales.
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"But we will not depend on others to come to our own defense," Tsai said.

"That is why I want to reiterate that Taiwan is fully committed to protecting our security and maintaining our democratic way of life. We're also working to adapt our defense strategy to the changing threats we face."
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Though the White House has said Biden's pledge did not signify a change in U.S. policy, critics argue he may have undercut – intentionally or not – a U.S. stance of not taking a position on Taiwan's independence.

China, which views Taiwan as its own territory, mounted large-scale military drills to display its anger over an August visit there by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Chinese military activities have continued since then, though at a much reduced level. Chinese military aircraft have continued routinely crossing the median line in the Taiwan Strait, which had for years acted as an unofficial barrier.

Taiwan said on Wednesday that eight Chinese fighters flew across the median line.

Tsai said those operations "encroach on Taiwan's sovereignty and threaten peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region."

"We know from history and current events that threats against any one country or region translate directly and indirectly to increasing threats against its neighbors."
CHINESE DEADLINE TO TAKE TAIWAN?

James Moriarty, the U.S.-based chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan, Washington's de facto embassy in Taipei, said "strategic ambiguity" over whether Washington would come to the island's defense had never been stated as policy in any documents.

"It's never been a policy. It's been a description of what we do," Moriarty told the forum.

Referring to the decades-old Taiwan Relations Act, which forms the basis of the United States' unofficial ties with Taiwan, he said: "The original documents make it clear that we would have to do something if there is an attempt to change Taiwan's status by force."

Moriarty added that he did not think Chinese leader Xi Jinping had set a deadline of 2027 to take Taiwan, only that China's military should have the capability to do so by then.

"We have no idea what impact a slowing economy has on his thinking. We have no idea what impact the Russian failures in Ukraine have on his thinking ... So is there a firm deadline? I don't think so," he said.
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Reporting by Michael Martina and David Brunnstrom in Washington, and Ben Blanchard in Taipei; Editing by Mark Heinrich and Josie Kao

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
 

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EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
28m

Update: US officials: We are discussing providing Taiwan with small, mobile and lethal weapons against Chinese warships and aircraft.
 

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Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield
@USAmbUN
3h

United States government official
As the Security Council wrapped up a meeting on North Korea's dangerous ballistic missile launches, we learned that Pyongyang launched two more missiles.

Make no mistake: the two Council members that are blocking us from taking action are enabling North Korea.

Update: South Korean President: We will cooperate with the United States and Japan on security issues and repel threats from North Korea.
 

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US seeks to convert Taiwan into weapons warehouse​


US plans to stockpile enough weapons in Taiwan to hold out during Chinese blockade​



By Keoni Everington, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
2022/10/06 12:15

Staff members work on the production line of Taiwan military's latest armored vehicle the CM-34 Clouded Leopard in Nant...


Staff members work on the production line of Taiwan military's latest armored vehicle the CM-34 "Clouded Leopard" in Nant...


TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The U.S. is planning on stockpiling mass quantities of mobile weapons to enable Taiwan to hold out for help in the event of a Chinese attack and blockade.

The New York Times cited U.S. officials as stating that plans are in the works to turn Taiwan into a "giant weapons depot" to ensure adequate supplies during a Chinese blockade in preparation for an invasion. Taiwan and the U.S. are taking lessons from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and one of them is that Taiwan will need a much greater store of weaponry, as it will be much more easily cut off from aid than Ukraine, which shares land borders with four NATO countries.

Both the Russian invasion of Ukraine and China's unprecedented military response to the visit of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan have prompted Washington and Taipei to examine both what kinds of weaponry Taiwan will need as a deterrent and how to stockpile enough of it to last through initial waves of attack and a blockade by China. The Biden administration is increasingly prioritizing the sale of smaller, more mobile weapons systems over larger platforms such as M1 Abrams tanks and in September approved a US$1.1 billion arms sale that included a radar warning system, 60 Harpoon anti-ship missiles, and 100 Sidewinder tactical air missiles.

In terms of the weapons depot approach, the newspaper cited Jacob Stokes, a fellow at the Center for a New American Security, as saying “Stockpiling in Taiwan is a very active point of discussion.” He also pointed out that considerations are being made into how the weapons caches can be hardened and dispersed to evade destruction by Chinese missiles.

Stokes added that, "The view is we need to lengthen the amount of time Taiwan can hold out on its own." He said that this would be an important step in preventing China from achieving "fait accompli" before U.S. military support can arrive.

The U.S. is seeking to convert Taiwan into a "porcupine" by stocking it with asymmetrical armaments that would blunt assaults by sea and air. Taiwan is largely in agreement with this strategy, but its main concern is about bureaucratic bottlenecks in the delivery of the arms, with Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴), Taiwan's representative to the U.S., pointing out to the newspaper that the speed of arms deliveries "does have to be accelerated."

In September, the Senate and House introduced their versions of the Taiwan Policy Act of 2022, which seeks to bolster Taiwan's defenses with up to US$6.5 billion in military aid for Taiwan. On Tuesday (Oct. 4), Minister of National Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng (邱國正) emphasized that Taiwan will continue its weapons development and war preparations even if the act is passed.

 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
From my email inbox Bloomberg Balance of Power October 7 2022

Russia’s war in Ukraine and President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats are understandably at the top of global leaders’ agenda. But concerns are also rising about the world’s other major potential flashpoint.

The US has stepped up contingency planning for a possible Chinese assault on Taiwan following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, according to people familiar with the Biden administration’s deliberations.

Key reading:

Key to the war-gaming is the strategic significance of the democratically governed island’s cutting-edge chip industry, led by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.

China claims Taiwan as part of its territory, and President Joe Biden has been increasingly explicit in his vows to commit US forces if Beijing attacks the island.

But as well as a highly sensitive geopolitical pressure point, Taiwan is pivotal due to its capacity to make the kind of advanced chips needed by the likes of Apple, Tesla and VW, as well as the US military.

As our exclusive report details, the US National Security Council projects that a Chinese attack and the loss of TSMC could disrupt the world economy to the tune of more than $1 trillion.

China denies any plans for an invasion, and blames the US for changing the status quo in the region.

Still, the concern in Taipei is that Chinese President Xi Jinping may be tempted to launch an attack to divert attention from his faltering economy and high unemployment.

US officials expect Xi to emerge emboldened from this month’s Communist Party Congress, and more aggressive in his territorial assertions.

Beyond the claims and counter-claims, one thing is clear: Tensions are rising in a volatile region just when the world needs it least. — Alan Crawford
 

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Taiwan tracks 9 Chinese military aircraft, 4 naval ships around country​


Taiwan News


Taiwan sent aircraft, naval ships, and used land-based missile systems to monitor PLA aircraft and vessels​


[IMG alt="Chinese Y-8 ASW plane. (MND photo)
"]https://tnimage.s3.hicloud.net.tw/photos/2022/07/14/1657760550-62cf6b2686005.jpg[/IMG]

Chinese Y-8 ASW plane. (MND photo)

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Ministry of National Defense (MND) tracked nine Chinese military aircraft and four naval vessels around Taiwan as of 5 p.m. on Thursday (Oct. 6).

Of the nine People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft, one Shaanxi Y-8 anti-submarine warfare plane was monitored in the southwest corner of Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), according to the MND. No PLA aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait median line on Thursday.

In response, Taiwan sent combat patrol aircraft, naval ships, and used land-based missile systems to monitor the PLA aircraft and vessels, in addition to issuing radio warnings.

Beijing has sent 95 Chinese military aircraft and 24 naval ships around Taiwan so far in October. Since September 2020, China has increased its use of gray zone tactics by routinely sending aircraft into Taiwan’s ADIZ.

Gray zone tactics are defined as “an effort or series of efforts beyond steady-state deterrence and assurance that attempts to achieve one’s security objectives without resort to direct and sizable use of force.”
Taiwan tracks 9 Chinese military aircraft, 4 naval ships around country
Flight path of one out of nine Chinese aircraft on Oct. 6. (MND image)Taiwan tracks 9 Chinese military aircraft, 4 naval ships around country | Taiwan News | 2022-10-07 10:06:00
 

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China invasion of Taiwan would be 'global catastrophe'​


Taiwan News

4-5 minutes



  1. Home
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RAND President Jason Matheny says if China attacks Taiwan, world would soon be 'plunging off economic cliff'​


[IMG alt="PLA soldiers take part in military parade to commemorate 90th anniversary of foundation of army in 2017. (Reuters photo)
"]https://tnimage.s3.hicloud.net.tw/photos/2022/10/07/1665119028-633fb3342dad5.jpg[/IMG]

PLA soldiers take part in military parade to commemorate 90th anniversary of foundation of army in 2017. (Reuters photo)

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The head of a major U.S. policy think tank says that if China invades Taiwan and destroys its semiconductor plants, it would be a "global catastrophe" with the world soon "plunging off an economic cliff."

On Monday (Oct. 3), Jason Matheny, president and chief executive of the U.S. think tank RAND Corp penned an op-ed in The Atlantic. In the piece, Matheny lays out the possible economic consequences should China invade Taiwan and the steps the U.S. can take to prevent Beijing from attacking.

Matheny, a national security expert, said Taiwan accounts for 92% of all advanced microchips, thus any attack on the country would greatly jeopardize the global chip supply. He predicted that this semiconductor manufacturing capacity could suffer one of two fates if China invades, but in either case, it would result in a "global catastrophe."

In the first scenario, China would manage to keep Taiwan's semiconductor plants largely intact, but would tightly restrict U.S. and allied access to advanced chips based on its whims, much to the detriment of "American technological, economic, and military advantages." However, if China were to destroy Taiwan's chip factories, the world could suffer an economic crisis, "not seen since the Great Depression," argued Matheny.

He suggested one way to avoid such an economic disaster would be for the U.S. to wean itself off dependence on chips from Taiwan and other foreign countries. Although the CHIPS Act is specifically geared to start this process, Matheny warned that it would probably take decades before the U.S. can produce enough chips to meet its own domestic demand.

Another option would be for the U.S. to quickly intervene militarily to protect Taiwan's vital chip-building infrastructure. The flaw with this plan would be that many of Taiwan's semiconductor plants on its coasts would likely already be shattered before U.S. forces could arrive.

Matheny's third option would be to make Taiwan's porcupine defense bristle with a large number of smaller, mobile asymmetrical weapons such as "High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), drones, loitering munitions, anti-tank missiles, and sea mines." He said that bolstering Taiwan's asymmetrical defenses would provide substantive deterrence "within a couple of years, rather than decades."

He cautioned that one major glitch with this plan is the serious bottleneck in the U.S. production of such weapons systems, due in large part to a shortage of microchips.
 

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Insider Paper
@TheInsiderPaper
15h

NEW Elon Musk, days after floating a possible deal to end the war between Russia and Ukraine that drew condemnation in Ukraine, suggested that tensions between China and Taiwan could be resolved by handing over some control of Taiwan to Beijing - Reuters
 
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