WAR CHINA THREATENS TO INVADE TAIWAN

jward

jward

passin' thru
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Update: US Ambassador to Beijing: There will be consequences if the Chinese authorities provide systematic support to Russia's war in Ukraine.
US Ambassador to Beijing: There is global concern that China has become a destabilizing factor in the Taiwan Strait.
US Ambassador to Beijing: China needs to convince the world that it will work peacefully in the Taiwan Strait.
 
Zagdid

Zagdid

Veteran Member
maritime-executive.com

China Redeploys Top Naval Leaders for the Taiwan Strait

As tension along the Taiwan Strait continues to deepen, China has reportedly promoted its Coast Guard Chief Wang Zhongcai to naval commander in charge...
maritime-executive.com maritime-executive.com

China Redeploys Top Naval Leaders for the Taiwan Strait​


PUBLISHED AUG 18, 2022 3:51 PM BY BRIAN GICHERU KINYUA

As tension along the Taiwan Strait continues to deepen, China has reportedly promoted its Coast Guard Chief Wang Zhongcai to naval commander in charge of the East China Sea and Taiwan Strait. They took this action as China continues its unrelenting efforts to escalate military exercises in the region.

According to Chinese media, Major General Wang Zhongcai recently attended a meeting in Ningbo in his new capacity as the commander of the Chinese Navy Eastern Theater Command.

Since US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan earlier this month, China’s military posture towards Taiwan has increased. They conducted large-scale military exercises around Taiwan from August 4 through to August 10 that many western observers consider quite telling. On Monday, coordinated to a second visit by U.S. Congressional members, China's People's Liberation Army, the Defense Ministry, and its Eastern Theater Command announced additional drills in the seas and skies surrounding Taiwan.

Major General Wang Zhongcai has had a marked career at the China Coast Guard, overseeing several incursions into the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands. Wang’s promotion to the top naval post in the East China Sea could grant him more power to add military pressure on Taiwan and Japan.

Wang Zhongcai joined the Coast Guard from the Navy in 2018 helping to lead some historical reforms. It is during his term that Beijing upgraded the Coast Guard, giving it power on par with the military. A new policy came into place allowing the Coast Guard to use force when China’s sovereignty is infringed by foreign vessels. The Coast Guard’s command was also placed under Central Military Commission, which is China’s military top decision-making body.

Meanwhile, Mei Wen, who served as a political commissar on China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, has also been redeployed to the Eastern Theater Command, still as a political commissioner. In the position, which is considered equal to that of commander, he will be working jointly with Zhongcai.

“China has decided to deploy top talent to the areas facing the most intense tensions. They may be looking at operating an aircraft carrier around Taiwan,” said Yasuyuki Sugiura, a senior researcher at Japan’s National Institute for Defense Studies.

Other analysts in the region believe Pelosi’s visit could have given China the one opportunity it has been waiting for to grow its belligerence towards Taiwan. The re-organization of the Eastern Command naval leadership may be the first manifestation of this fact.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru

If war breaks out over Taiwan, Joe Biden’s lack of leadership will be to blame​


  • The US president has shown a worrying lack of authority when dealing with scrapping trade tariffs on China, securing an increase in oil output and Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan
  • On his watch, the danger of war between the US and China looms much larger

```​

Years ago, as a regional head of Asia for an American multinational based in Atlanta, Georgia, I was schmoozing with the visiting vice-president, international, over afternoon drinks on the Bund in Shanghai when he said of the company’s CEO, “Decisiveness is a key part of leadership, and Paul knows his stuff.”
The context was that most people in the company had thought Paul was an incredibly charming man until shivers were sent down their spines by the news that the COO, who had been Paul’s right-hand man from the time they started the company, had suddenly been removed for no obvious reason.
A veteran investment banker was announced as the new COO and, two years later, the company’s share price had more than doubled, although net profit was up by less than 25 per cent – Wall Street became more bullish about the company simply because of the new CEO/COO ticket. The vice-president added, “Paul doesn’t run a company like this by being Mr Nice!”
Unfortunately for the world, US President Joe Biden seems to be running a country like America by being Mr Nice – which is amply shown in his handling of international relations.




The ongoing saga of the Biden administration’s internal bickering over whether to cut the tariffs on Chinese goods is a troubling example. That the trade war, launched by the Trump administration in 2018, has hurt America much more than China is obvious to many, including heavyweight members of the Biden administration such as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Yet, the Biden administration still has not scrapped the tariffs imposed on US$350 billion of Chinese imports, mainly due to persistent resistance from US Trade Representative Katherine Tai.

Tai may have many reasons to support her case but when the overall economic picture is clear, a resolute commander-in-chief would make a decision, move on from the trade dispute and focus on finding the next piece of leverage over China. Yet Biden seems to prefer being a democratic boss, unwilling to use his veto to override any of his cabinet members and therefore allowing the trade war to drag on.
Perhaps Biden thinks he can afford to be indecisive on the trade issue with China. But he didn’t make his trip to the Middle East last month count, and that was consequential. Bound by his own commitment to work with allies to confront the US’ chief rivals, China and Russia, Biden travelled to Saudi Arabia to persuade Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to increase the oil output of Opec producers and help bring down prices in the wake of sanctions against Russian oil.
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However, his seeming gesture of goodwill towards the crown prince – coming after US intelligence found that he had authorised the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi dissident journalist who wrote for The Washington Post, in 2018, and Biden himself pledged in 2020 to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” – did not lead to results.

Biden could simply and rightfully have wielded America’s power as the de facto protector of Saudi Arabia to get what he wanted; he needn’t even have made the trip himself. Biden could have drawn the prince’s attention to the fact that what Washington regards as entirely legitimate requirements must be met by Riyadh, and reminded the prince of America’s ability to underwrite or disregard the kingdom’s chief concern, which is the security of the monarchy.

Instead, Biden did what he did, only to be snubbed when Opec announced one of the smallest increases in oil production in its history. What’s more, Saudi Arabia might feel emboldened to sell oil to China for renminbi and seek more security-related cooperation with Beijing.
Above all, it is the handling of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan earlier this month that has exposed the worrying extent of Biden’s lack of leadership.









Taiwan showcases fighter jets as mainland China’s war games continue following Pelosi visit​

His indecisiveness, coupled with his bigoted sense of morality, raised genuine fears of dangerous brinkmanship between Washington and Beijing over Taiwan. Pelosi went ahead with her much-hyped trip, ignoring Biden’s mild expression of disapproval; since then, Beijing’s retaliatory military exercises around Taiwan have brought it a significant step closer, through its strategy of “salami-slicing”, to its stated goal of reunification.

Readings of the situation have been offered, zeroing in on Pelosi’s bloated ego, Congress’ constitutionally guaranteed status as an equal branch of the US government and China’s “overreaction”.
What really counts here, however, is that it happened and there will be grave consequences, due to Biden’s irresolute leadership. Pelosi went to Taiwan and Beijing hit back by simulating a blockade of Taiwan – which many saw as a preview of a forceful reunification. Thus, the danger of war between the US and China looms much larger now that Beijing believes Washington is forcing it into a corner – indeed, it’s never been more ominous.
More than 100 years ago, Vilfredo Pareto, an influential Italian polymath, observed the same pattern of decline that the Biden administration is showing today when he noted that a society’s declining elite “becomes softer, milder, more humane and less apt to defend its own power”, and yet it “does not lose its rapacity and greed for the goods of others”.

Graham Allison, the Harvard professor famous for the book Destined for War: can America and China escape Thucydides’ Trap?, has recently criticised America (and China, of course) for carrying on with “statecraft as usual”, which would lead to “history as usual”, meaning “a catastrophic war”. To which I would say that Biden, with his dogmatic niceness, would bear the lion’s share of the responsibility.
Terry Su is president of Lulu Derivation Data Ltd, a Hong Kong-based online publishing house and think tank specialising in geopolitics

www.scmp.com

If war breaks out over Taiwan, blame Biden’s lack of leadership

The US president has shown a worrying lack of leadership on scrapping tariffs on China, securing an increase in oil output and Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. On his watch, the danger of war between the US and China looms much larger.
www.scmp.com www.scmp.com
 
jward

jward

passin' thru

Taiwan seeks US protection from China as Russians pound Ukraine​


ByLarry Luxner
June 22, 2022
0



Bi-khim Hsiao, chief of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, is Taiwan's de facto ambassador to the United States. (Photo by The Washington Diplomat)

Ever since Russia began bombing Ukraine four months ago, the 23 million inhabitants of Taiwan have been eyeing the war nervously, worried that Beijing might want to launch its own invasion.
Such fears are not unfounded. At the recent Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe warned that “China will definitely realize its reunification” with Taiwan. If anyone tries to stand in the way, he went on, “We will not hesitate to fight. We will fight at all costs.”
While Taiwan is clearly not Ukraine, the similarities are glaring: a small democracy seeking strong ties with the West is threatened by a giant nuclear-armed bully that claims sovereignty over its territory.
Bi-khim Hsiao, Taiwan’s de facto ambassador to the United States, acknowledges the anxiety back home.

“We’re all trying to learn lessons from this war, with the ultimate goal of deterring it. We have to fortify our own deterrence capabilities, but the resilience of the Ukrainian people and their ability to fight the Russians with determination has inspired the Taiwanese people,” she said.
Hsiao, 50, heads the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office (TECRO), as the mission has long been known. But she’s not officially an ambassador—a diplomatic distinction that is crucial to China, which views the democratic, Maryland-sized island as a renegade province. Any perceived recognition of Taiwan as a sovereign entity is a red line for Beijing.

Chinese soldiers in a military Jeep cast in bronze at the Juming Museum in Jinshan, Taiwan. (Photo by Larry Luxner)
That delicate balancing act made headlines in late May, when President Joe Biden warned that the United States would respond “militarily” if China attacked Taiwan. The White House quickly walked back Biden’s remarks, as has become customary, but Biden clearly made his point: he no longer wishes to maintain the policy of “deliberate ambiguity” long maintained by Washington.
“The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 obligates the US to support us in our self-defense, to maintain capabilities, and to resist coercion,” she said. “Of course, in light of the situation in Ukraine and heightened anxieties, we are getting an overwhelming level of concern and support from our friends here in Washington.”
Hsiao spoke to The Washington Diplomat at Twin Oaks — an 18-acre estate off Woodley Road that functioned as the official residence of Taiwan’s ambassador from 1937 until 1979, the year President Jimmy Carter switched US diplomatic recognition to the People’s Republic of China.

First woman to head TECRO’s Washington mission
The product of a Taiwanese father and an American mother, Hsiao speaks unaccented English and went to high school in New Jersey. She’s also the first woman ever to occupy the post, and she represents Taiwan’s first female president, Tsai Ing-wen.
Born in the Japanese city of Kobe, Hsiao grew up in Tainan, a city in southern Taiwan. She earned a bachelor’s degree in East Asian studies from Ohio’s Oberlin College, and a master’s in political science from New York’s Columbia University.
A former four-term legislator in Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party, Hsiao—a cat lover who brought her four felines with her to Washington—became Taiwan’s top envoy to the United States in July 2020, after serving as a senior advisor to the president at the National Security Council of Taiwan.
Bi-khim Hsiao, chief of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, talks about Taiwan’s relationship with the United States. (Photo by The Washington Diplomat)

“All we want is to preserve the status quo,” she told The Diplomat. “Survival and peace is in everyone’s best interests.”
Beijing may see things differently. Recent moves by TECRO to change its name to simply “Taiwan Representative Office” have been met with fury by the Chinese Embassy here, with one official warning the United States to “stop any official interaction with Taiwan, refrain from sending any wrong signals to ‘Taiwan independence’ forces or attempting to challenge China’s bottom line.”
The proposal has bipartisan support in Congress as well as backing from the National Security Council and senior officials at the State Department’s Asia desk.
China’s pushback on the TECRO name change coincides with attacks on media outlets that run stories it doesn’t like. Last month, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu warned in an exclusive interview with Israel’s Jerusalem Post that the Jewish state was relying too much on China. After the story ran, a top Chinese diplomat warned of dire consequences unless the Post retracted the article.

“Didn’t take long,” the newspaper’s editor-in-chief, Yaakov Katz, later tweeted. “Got call from Chinese embassy. Apparently I’m supposed to take down the story or they will sever ties with the @Jerusalem_Post and downgrade relations with the State of Israel. Needless to say, story ain’t going anywhere.”
“China understands that in societies like the US and other advanced democracies, it’s harder to pressure the media,” said Hsiao, recalling that last year, Beijing threatened a newspaper in India that had carried a full-page advertisement celebrating Taiwan’s National Day. “But the paper refused to let the Chinese dictate to them. An Indian TV station later did an interview with our foreign minister. That became such an incident that ultimately an Indian politician decided to post the Taiwan flag at the Chinese Embassy.”
Aerial view of Taipei as seen from the top of Taipei 101, one of the world’s tallest buildings. (Photo by Larry Luxner)
Wu quickly tweeted a response to his Chinese counterparts, telling them to simply “GET LOST!” and signing his initials so it was clear the tweet came from him personally.

Only 14 states recognize Taiwan today
Despite those small victories, Taiwan is clearly losing the diplomatic war; recent defections to China include Burkina Faso, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Panama and the Dominican Republic.
At the moment, only 14 sovereign states maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, down from around 30 in the 1980s. The largest of those 14 are Guatemala, home to 17 million people, and Haiti, home to 11 million. Except for Honduras and Paraguay, the rest are mostly Caribbean and Pacific microstates: Belize, Eswatini, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Tuvalu and the Vatican.

“We’re grateful that these 14 countries have all been very supportive of Taiwan’s international participation in the WHO [World Health Organization] and in in other ways that countries which don’t have officials ties with us can act upon,” she said. “They also provide opportunities for Taiwan to showcase our soft power in agriculture and technology by working together toward common sustainable goals.”
But Chinese money is winning the upper hand, especially in Africa, where Beijing has made enormous investments in countries like Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa. In 2020, despite the COVID-19 economic downturn, Chinese foreign direct investment in Africa reached $2.96 billion, up 9.5% from the year before.

The Former Taiwanese Embassy in Mbabane, capital of Swaziland, now Eswatini. (Photo by Larry Luxner)
In fact, Eswatini—formerly Swaziland—is the only African country that still recognizes Taiwan, now that Burkina Faso, São Tomé e Principe and The Gambia have all decided that China is their real friend instead.
“It’s very difficult for us to have a presence in Africa. China is trying to keep us out,” Hsiao conceded. “Despite that, through cooperation with the US and other partners, we’ve contributed to health initiatives such as combatting Ebola in Congo. Our goal is to be a force for good.”

She added that a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan—perhaps not so hypothetical given recent events in Ukraine—would devastate the global economy.
“I can’t speak on the psychology of the Chinese, but the lesson we hope they’ll learn is that Russia is paying a heavy price for this,” she said. “Ironically, Europe is more unified than it’s been in decades.”
Hsiao added: “A lot of attention is put on semiconductor chips, because Taiwan makes more high-end chips than anyone else in the world,” Hsiao said. “Chips are not easy to produce. It’s not as simple as picking up a factory and moving elsewhere.”

‘One of the most dangerous problems in the world’
Asked if TECRO has any relationship whatsoever with the Chinese Embassy in Washington, she said, “Well, no we don’t, but they’re always on our mind.”

Commuters on motor scooters wait for traffic light to change at a busy Taipei intersection. (Photo by Larry Luxner)
They’re always on the Pentagon’s mind too. Indeed, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
In an article in the July/August 2022 issue of Foreign Affairs titled “The Consequences of Conquest: Why Indo-Pacific Power Hinges on Taiwan,” Georgetown University’s Caitlin Talmadge and University of Cincinnati’s Brendan Rittenhouse Green argue that “as the place where all the dilemmas of US policy toward China collide, Taiwan presents one of the toughest and most dangerous problems in the world.”
No matter what Washington does, it’ll be forced to run risks and incur costs in its standoff with Beijing.
The authors argue that deterring Beijing would “probably require abandoning the long-standing US policy of strategic ambiguity about whether Washington would come to the island’s defense in favor of a crystal-clear commitment of military support,” but warn that this shift would “almost certainly heighten pressures for an arms race between the United States and China in anticipation of a conflict, intensifying the already dangerous competition between the two powers.”
Columnist Josh Rogin of the Washington Post went further, warning in a June 16 opinion piece that China is racing to become the dominant military power in Asia in the next few years—and if it succeeds, Beijing is likely to use force to attempt to subdue Taiwan’s democracy.

“Russia’s attack on Ukraine has dispelled any notion that revisionist dictatorships can be deterred by anything short of a superior opposing military force,” Rogin wrote. “China is building the capability to use nuclear blackmail to deter a US intervention if it invades Taiwan, following Russia’s model. China’s regional military presence is expanding, including a secret naval base in Cambodia and a secret military cooperation agreement with the Solomon Islands. China has developed new technologies, including hypersonic missiles and antisatellite lasers, to keep the US military at bay in a Taiwan scenario. And now, China no longer recognizes the Taiwan Strait as international waters.”
Though she declined to comment specifically on Pentagon policy, Hsiao said that in her view, Taiwan’s partnership with the United States is among the key pillars of her country’s prosperity.
“US support for Taiwan is critical to our survival. We are a democracy, and we exemplify the same values the American people cherish: freedom, democracy, market entrepreneurship, innovation and technology,” she said. “We’re grateful for bipartisan friendship, and we hope that support will continue.”
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic

Preparations for conflict in China: Politicians hand over power to the Army - Revision of the Law on National Defence​

Developments are accelerating - The Army takes up combat positions​

War News 24 / 7
21/08/2022 - 17:53

Preparations for conflict in China: Politicians hand over power to the Army - Revision of the Law on National Defence

A particularly worrying revelation comes from China. In July 2022, a Chinese businessman who manufactures medical equipment made it known that local officials had asked him to convert his production lines to China so that they could produce items for the military.

Communist Party cadres, he said, issued similar orders to other businessmen.

In addition, Chinese academics argue that the continued expulsion of foreign colleagues from China's universities appears to be a preparation for hostilities.

The People's Republic of China is preparing to go to war and does not hide its efforts.

Power in the army​

Amendments to the Law on National Defence, which came into force, transfer powers from civilians to military officials.

In general, the amendments reduce the role of the State Council of the central government by transferring power to the CMC, the Central Military Committee of the Communist Party.

In particular, the State Council will no longer supervise the mobilization of the People's Liberation Army.

As Zeng Zhiping of Soochow University told Hong Kong's South China Morning Post, "the CMC is now officially responsible for developing national defense policy and principles, while the State Council becomes a mere implementing body that provides support to the military."

In a sense, these amendments were a loophole in the preparation of the war, as the website 19fortyfive.com states.

"The recent changes to China's National Defense Act that reduce the authority of the State Council are largely political affiliation," Richard Fisher of the Virginia-based International Center for Evaluation and Strategy told me immediately after the amendments took effect.

Military mobilization​

"The Chinese Communist Party and especially the existing CMC have always had the highest authority in decisions about war and peace."

Why then are we interested in the amendments to the Law on National Defence?

The amendments, Fisher tells us, "show China's ambition to achieve levels of military mobilization of 'the whole nation' to wage wars and give the CMC official authority to control future Chinese capabilities for global military intervention."

"The revised National Defense Law also embodies the idea that everyone should participate in national defense," the Communist Party's Global Times reports, summing up the words of an anonymous CMC official.

"All national organizations, armed forces, political parties, citizens' groups, businesses, social organizations and other organizations should support and participate in the development of national defense, fulfill national defense tasks and carry out national defense missions in accordance with the law.

As Fisher said "for the past 40 years, the Communist Party of China has been preparing for war and is now accelerating its plans." The Party, as it is ready for battle, leaves nothing to chance.

Preparing for sanctions – Invasion of Taiwan​

On April 22, finance ministry and central bank officials met with representatives of dozens of banks, including HSBC, to discuss what Beijing could do if punitive measures were imposed on China. The holding of the "extraordinary meeting", as reported by the Financial Times, is ominous.

"Officials and bystanders did not mention specific scenarios, but a possible trigger for such sanctions is believed to be a Chinese invasion of Taiwan," the FT noted.

The fact that Chinese officials held the meeting is a clear indication that Beijing is planning war actions.

"Be ready for battle." This is how Hong Kong's South China Morning Post summed up Chinese ruler Xi Jinping's first order toward the military in 2019.

In January of the same year, he gave an important speech to the CMC on preparations for the war, and the speech was then broadcast at the national level.

Foreign analysts are debating whether China will go to war soon. The Chinese political system has become less transparent over time, so it is not clear what senior leaders think.

warnews247.gr

Προετοιμασίες σύρραξης στην Κίνα: Οι πολιτικοί παραδίδουν την εξουσία στο Στρατό -Αναθεώρηση του νόμου περί Εθνικής Άμυνας - WarNews247

Μία ιδιαίτερα ανησυχητική αποκάλυψη έρχεται από την Κίνα. Τον Ιούλιο 2022, Κινέζος επιχειρηματίας που παρασκευάζει ιατρικό εξοπλισμό έκανε γνωστό ότι οι τοπικοί αξιωματούχοι του είχαν ζητήσει να μετατρέψει τις γραμμές παραγωγής του στην Κίνα, ώστε να μπορούν να παράγουν είδη για τον στρατό. Τα...
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H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Between the self inflicted issues of Covid and their response to it, drought that is impacting crops, hydroelectric power and thus their grid overall and Xi's already "tightening up" before on the economy Xi's CCP clique has very few cards left to play.
 
Maryh

Maryh

Veteran Member
Sure hope things simmer down for awhile. My daughter is heading to Japan in Sept. I thought this traveling would be over for her but guess not.
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Maryh said:
Sure hope things simmer down for awhile. My daughter is heading to Japan in Sept. I thought this traveling would be over for her but guess not.
Click to expand...
Your Daughter needs to do some serious thinking. All the war scenarios I have seen have China firing missiles at US bases in Japan right from the get-go. What will this mean to a civilian in Japan? First all civilian airlines will stop flying in and out of Japan. The Japanese military will take over all civilian airports and Japanese airlines.

Your Daughter stands a very good chance of being trapped in Japan. Is she prepared for that?

The US government will have bigger things on its mind than evacuating civilians from Japan.

I believe that the start of hostiles will come without warning.

The Fall seems to be the time of greatest danger that China will invade Taiwan.
 
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