Old Greek
Veteran Member
Exactly what I did. Quit reading after that sentence!
ENVR Atlantic Ocean current could collapse soon. How you may endure dramatic weather changes.
- Thread starter mzkitty
- Start date
Southside
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Ok, yes this is a good article, despite the fall-back to Man-made global warming. The Atlantic Oscillation will revert back to past times when it was MUCH colder in the UK/N. Europe. It has happened before, and will again. I do believe that the Beaufort Gyre is the controlling factor in the future cooling of Europe
How a Wayward Arctic Current Could Cool the Climate in Europe
The Beaufort Gyre, a key Arctic Ocean current, is acting strangely. Scientists say it may be on the verge of discharging a huge amount of ice and cold freshwater that could kick off a period of lower temperatures in northern Europe.
e360.yale.edu
Chance
Veteran Member
'Human caused climate change'...and the honest weather people deny humans had/have any affect on the weather, or temperature of the world.
Maybe there is a problem..and they are latching on to this lie ....
I also believe they've come a long way in their weather control...and they could be creating these high temps, no rain, etc...in that case it is a man caused climate emergency. Their typical - "create the problem, provide the solution"
Maybe there is a problem..and they are latching on to this lie ....
I also believe they've come a long way in their weather control...and they could be creating these high temps, no rain, etc...in that case it is a man caused climate emergency. Their typical - "create the problem, provide the solution"
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Melodi
Disaster Cat
Don't forget, despite that article prepping the narrative thing, parts of North America did get colder during these periods. It may not be as bad, though there were some horrific Winters in the Colonies during the 1600s (return of the Little Ice Age after a Brief Warming period), which is also when the Thames froze over for ice scatters in England. If sea levels do much of anything, they are likely to lower if it gets cold enough to pack on more sea ice, which may be one way things react back to warming.
This article is a mishmash of a potentially actual situation (unless there's a sudden shift back in the other direction) while at the same time being ordered (or knowing they have to) to throw in all the current messaging. In reality, the climate is constantly changing. Nightwolf used to say, "If you don't want to experience Climate Change go live on a spaceship!"
The scam is that every bit of climate change is supposedly the fault of humanity and our technology. Some of it, maybe. It was speculated at the time of the BP oil spill that it MIGHT have been big enough of a disaster, especially after using COREXIT to cause the North Atlantic Ossolation to weaken or even drift south. I won't go into all the reasons for that theory, but the time when that should show up is now if that is happening.
On the other hand, this bounces around every few hundred years and has probably for at least the last few thousand years that we make educated guesses on using ice cores, tree rings, the literate sources of the ancient near east, Egypt or China. So it is almost impossible to know if, like the Year Without a Summer after Tambora erupted when some places in North America and Europe had snow year-round; it was just the volcano. Or did the fact the world was already in a Little Ice Age make it worse? Did the Volcano delay the gradual warming that was already happening, or was that the lack of sunspots or some other reason?
If you want serious Doom Porn, the Carrington Event, which today would produce a natural EMP over thousands of miles on whatever part of the Earth it hit, was still during the end of the Little Ice Age. It only takes ONE sunspot. So even solar minimums are not totally protected from something like that. Though I worry about it less in some ways, even though I know it is possible.
This article is a mishmash of a potentially actual situation (unless there's a sudden shift back in the other direction) while at the same time being ordered (or knowing they have to) to throw in all the current messaging. In reality, the climate is constantly changing. Nightwolf used to say, "If you don't want to experience Climate Change go live on a spaceship!"
The scam is that every bit of climate change is supposedly the fault of humanity and our technology. Some of it, maybe. It was speculated at the time of the BP oil spill that it MIGHT have been big enough of a disaster, especially after using COREXIT to cause the North Atlantic Ossolation to weaken or even drift south. I won't go into all the reasons for that theory, but the time when that should show up is now if that is happening.
On the other hand, this bounces around every few hundred years and has probably for at least the last few thousand years that we make educated guesses on using ice cores, tree rings, the literate sources of the ancient near east, Egypt or China. So it is almost impossible to know if, like the Year Without a Summer after Tambora erupted when some places in North America and Europe had snow year-round; it was just the volcano. Or did the fact the world was already in a Little Ice Age make it worse? Did the Volcano delay the gradual warming that was already happening, or was that the lack of sunspots or some other reason?
If you want serious Doom Porn, the Carrington Event, which today would produce a natural EMP over thousands of miles on whatever part of the Earth it hit, was still during the end of the Little Ice Age. It only takes ONE sunspot. So even solar minimums are not totally protected from something like that. Though I worry about it less in some ways, even though I know it is possible.
Pebbles
Veteran Member
The arrogance of human beings is just amazing. They insist that WE caused global warming.....no, this is the normal cyclical pattern of the planet we live on. Of course the arrogance is usually backed by a money making scheme to be inflicted on the masses.
Sooth
Veteran Member
This is the same crap Al Gore was preaching when he was pushing "An Inconvenient Truth", I attended one of his presentations back in the day - exactly when eludes me - and the Atlantic Conveyor Belt was a BIG TOPIC. The cities by the oceans would be under water by the year 2000.
Miami and New York which he used as examples are still there. He like VP Harris was a heartbeat away from the Oval Office. Both Democrats.
Miami and New York which he used as examples are still there. He like VP Harris was a heartbeat away from the Oval Office. Both Democrats.
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
Ok, yes this is a good article, despite the fall-back to Man-made global warming. The Atlantic Oscillation will revert back to past times when it was MUCH colder in the UK/N. Europe. It has happened before, and will again. I do believe that the Beaufort Gyre is the controlling factor in the future cooling of Europe
How a Wayward Arctic Current Could Cool the Climate in Europe
The Beaufort Gyre, a key Arctic Ocean current, is acting strangely. Scientists say it may be on the verge of discharging a huge amount of ice and cold freshwater that could kick off a period of lower temperatures in northern Europe.
Just remember that they always put global warming pretty close to the top of the article because they know/understand that 90% of the readers will stop reading at that point.
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
The only inconvenient truth he was interested in pushing was becoming even richer than he already was. The true inconvenient truth is his family is heavily into mining, and as VP he got us heavily involved in mining in china for all of these damned electric vehicles... of which you can be assured his family is getting handsome kickbacks from the ccp.
TheSearcher
Are you sure about that?
The conveyor belt is real. The reasons "They" say it will collapse are not.
TheSearcher
Are you sure about that?
Interesting point.
Wildweasel
F-4 Phantoms Phorever
It doesn't matter anyway. We're already all dead two or three times over based on past pronouncements of climate doom by esteemed experts like Al Gore, Gretta and Erlich.
Funny, but I feel pretty good for being dead from global warming, climate change, global cooling, etc... How about you guys?
Quiet Man
Nothing unreal exists
/JK
Meadowlark
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Run run chicken little, the sky is falling in!
Good god, do they expect us all to be so gullible?
Good god, do they expect us all to be so gullible?
Wyominglarry
Veteran Member
no one has figured out what caused the younger dryas collapse and until we know how and what caused it I will not believe in any BS about future climate events.
danielboon
TB Fanatic
Profit of Doom
Dismember
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
A large asteroid hit Greenland and parts of Northern Canada and NE US states, thanks to the ice melting they have discovered the impact crater and other stuff that points to a rather largish asteroid impact. If you follow Graham Hancock and Randall Carlson on YT you'll learn all about it. Also Ben at SuspiciousObservers also talks about this event on his YT channel.
223shootersc
Veteran Member
Hoooooman and Coooow farts!
Southside
Has No Life - Lives on TB
I do understand the risk to be real, significant, and possibly in the near future, unlike all the other scare sh!t they spread.
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
Tis okay he’s building his survivors ranch outside of Denver. The Vision I have had over the decades tells me that Denver is a no go. A 10.0 quake hits Denver and it sinks below sea level as does all of the front range all the way up to Cheyenne.
Ponder on that one a moment.
Yep. Don’t borrow trouble. Enough for today.
I was supposed to see this 2 times already according to the experts. Once in the early 70s we were going to go into another ice age and this was part of it. And in the 80s the ice caps were going to melt flooding all the sea coast changing the salt content of the ocean and the same thing was to happen. You ever notice all the people who say we are destroying the world and causing the world’s oceans to rise all buy ocean front property?
Now if this comes to pass there is nothing anyone can do about it and no amount of government mandated carbon taxes will make it go away the tax just make things more exspencive and will likely kill people.
Profit of Doom
Dismember
Doing my part. Just boiled a dozen eggs for egg salad.
Profit of Doom
Dismember
Any time “human-caused climate change” is bandied about, something’s coming out of somebody’s ass.
Melodi
Disaster Cat
Personally, since I live in an area likely to be affected first, I have paid attention to this going back to the selection of our house which was built in the 1790s. I considered the collapse of the NAO to be an important part of prepping in the UK or Ireland because it happens often and was already showing signs of slowing down and weakening in the 1990s.
The sad thing is that with a bit of foresight, Europe and parts of North America could easily avoid a lot of the horrors experienced by their ancestors because they would know the signs and be ready to rearrange the types of crops and adjust growing areas and seasonal planting to fit them. Also, some places, like the American Southwest and Mexico, may get even dryer and hotter, so the cold isn't universal, but forewarned is forearmed.
Of all the doom stuff, this is probably the most likely NATURAL event that is semi-predictable (or watchable) that we know of now. You can monitor a volcano and watch a hurricane, but both are wildly unpredictable. But science knows if the NAO weakens and travels south, Northern Europe will have much colder Winters and shorter growing seasons, and so will parts of the US and Canada. Other effects, like the drought cycles in Western North and South America, are less known but can be looked at.
While a full Ice Age is always a risk, that's the one I worry about less. On the other hand, glaciers move down somewhat during Little Ice Age. One village in Switzerland tried to have the village priest exorcise the demon in the glacier to make it stop, but the glacier declined to stop moving and still buried the village.
The sad thing is that with a bit of foresight, Europe and parts of North America could easily avoid a lot of the horrors experienced by their ancestors because they would know the signs and be ready to rearrange the types of crops and adjust growing areas and seasonal planting to fit them. Also, some places, like the American Southwest and Mexico, may get even dryer and hotter, so the cold isn't universal, but forewarned is forearmed.
Of all the doom stuff, this is probably the most likely NATURAL event that is semi-predictable (or watchable) that we know of now. You can monitor a volcano and watch a hurricane, but both are wildly unpredictable. But science knows if the NAO weakens and travels south, Northern Europe will have much colder Winters and shorter growing seasons, and so will parts of the US and Canada. Other effects, like the drought cycles in Western North and South America, are less known but can be looked at.
While a full Ice Age is always a risk, that's the one I worry about less. On the other hand, glaciers move down somewhat during Little Ice Age. One village in Switzerland tried to have the village priest exorcise the demon in the glacier to make it stop, but the glacier declined to stop moving and still buried the village.
Melodi
Disaster Cat
I am not sure I would call the 1300s hundred "The Distant Past," though that is correct if they mean a complete collapse of the NAO, which was probably around the Younger Dryas event 12,000 years ago. But this is a major UK newspaper, one of the liberal ones, but these papers often carry government-requested, perfectly legal stories in the UK. If an article like this is now in THESE papers, my spidey sense goes way up that the Powers that Be know this is a highly likely event (not certain, but highly likely). The best they can do to control the narrative is to claim humans caused this because they is no way they can handle it, but they can try to twist it to their ends.
www.theguardian.com
Gulf Stream could collapse as early as 2025, study suggests
A collapse would bring catastrophic climate impacts but scientists disagree over the new analysis
Damian Carrington Environment editor
@dpcarrington
Tue 25 Jul 2023 16.00 BST
The Gulf Stream system could collapse as soon as 2025, a new study suggests. The shutting down of the vital ocean currents, called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc) by scientists, would bring catastrophic climate impacts.
Amoc was already known to be at its weakest in 1,600 years owing to global heating and researchers spotted warning signs of a tipping point in 2021. [That's the Dark Ages collapse, that helped cause the Fall of the Western Roman Empire - Melodi]
The new analysis estimates a timescale for the collapse of between 2025 and 2095, with a central estimate of 2050, if global carbon emissions are not reduced. Evidence from past collapses indicates changes of temperature of 10C in a few decades, although these occurred during ice ages. [I wonder what the Romans and the Medieval Europeans did to cause this? - Melodi]
Other scientists said the assumptions about how a tipping point would play out and uncertainties in the underlying data are too large for a reliable estimate of the timing of the tipping point. But all said the prospect of an Amoc collapse was extremely concerning and should spur rapid cuts in carbon emissions. [Good luck with that! Let me know how that works out for you. - Melodi]
Amoc carries warm ocean water northwards towards the pole where it cools and sinks, driving the Atlantic’s currents. But an influx of fresh water from the accelerating melting of Greenland’s ice cap and other sources is increasingly smothering the currents.
A collapse of Amoc would have disastrous consequences around the world, severely disrupting the rains that billions of people depend on for food in India, South America and west Africa. It would increase storms and drop temperatures in Europe, and lead to a rising sea level on the eastern coast of North America. It would also further endanger the Amazon rainforest and Antarctic ice sheets.
“I think we should be very worried,” said Prof Peter Ditlevsen, at the University of Copenhagen in Denmark, and who led the new study. “This would be a very, very large change. The Amoc has not been shut off for 12,000 years.”[Yep, Younger Dryas-Melodi]
The Amoc collapsed and restarted repeatedly in the cycle of ice ages that occurred from 115,000 to 12,000 years ago. It is one of the climate tipping points scientists are most concerned about as global temperatures continue to rise.
Research in 2022 showed five dangerous tipping points may already have been passed due to the 1.1C of global heating to date, including the shutdown of Amoc, the collapse of Greenland’s ice cap and an abrupt melting of carbon-rich permafrost.
The new study, published in the journal Nature Communications, used sea surface temperature data stretching back to 1870 as a proxy for the change in strength of Amoc currents over time.
The researchers then mapped this data on to the path seen in systems that are approaching a particular type of tipping point called a “saddle-node bifurcation”. The data fitted “surprisingly well”, Ditlevsen said. The researchers were then able to extrapolate the data to estimate when the tipping point was likely to occur. Further statistical analysis provided a measure of the uncertainty in the estimate.
The analysis is based on greenhouse gas emissions rising as they have done to date. If emissions do start to fall, as intended by current climate policies, then the world would have more time to try to keep global temperature below the Amoc tipping point. [Oh really, well they try prayers and exorcisms in the 14th century, but keep trying the magic solutions may work eventually - Melodi]
The most recent assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that Amoc would not collapse this century. But Ditlevsen said the models used have coarse resolution and are not adept at analysing the non-linear processes involved, which may make them overly conservative.
The potential collapse of Amoc is intensely debated by scientists, who have previously said it must be avoided “at all costs”. [Can someone please pull me off the floor from laughing now, its disturbing the cats lol! - Melodi]
Prof Niklas Boers, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, revealed the early warning signs of Amoc collapse in 2021. “The results of the new study sound alarming but if the uncertainties in the heavily oversimplified model [of the tipping point] and in the underlying [sea temperature] data are included, then it becomes clear that these uncertainties are too large to make any reliable estimate of the time of tipping.”
Prof David Thornalley, at University College London, UK, agreed the study had large caveats and unknowns and said further research was essential: “But if the statistics are robust and a relevant way to describe how the actual Amoc behaves, then this is a very concerning result.”
Dr Levke Caesar, at the University of Bremen, Germany, said using sea surface temperatures as proxy data for the strength of the Amoc currents was a key source of uncertainty: “We only have direct observational data of the Amoc since 2004.”
The extrapolation in the new analysis was reasonable, according to Prof Tim Lenton, at the University of Exeter, UK. He said the tipping point could lead to a partial Amoc collapse, for example only in the Labrador Sea, but that this would still cause major impacts. Ditlevsen said he hoped the debate would drive new research: “It’s always fruitful when you do not exactly agree.”
Prof Stefan Rahmstorf, at the University of Potsdam, Germany, said: “There is still large uncertainty where the Amoc tipping point is, but the new study adds to the evidence that it is much closer than we thought. A single study provides limited evidence, but when multiple approaches have led to similar conclusions this must be taken very seriously, especially when we’re talking about a risk that we really want to rule out with 99.9% certainty. Now we can’t even rule out crossing the tipping point in the next decade or two.”
Notice the new name AMOC, just to confuse people - Melodi
Gulf Stream could collapse as early as 2025, study suggests
A collapse would bring catastrophic climate impacts but scientists disagree over the new analysis
www.theguardian.com
A collapse would bring catastrophic climate impacts but scientists disagree over the new analysis
Damian Carrington Environment editor
@dpcarrington
Tue 25 Jul 2023 16.00 BST
The Gulf Stream system could collapse as soon as 2025, a new study suggests. The shutting down of the vital ocean currents, called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc) by scientists, would bring catastrophic climate impacts.
Amoc was already known to be at its weakest in 1,600 years owing to global heating and researchers spotted warning signs of a tipping point in 2021. [That's the Dark Ages collapse, that helped cause the Fall of the Western Roman Empire - Melodi]
The new analysis estimates a timescale for the collapse of between 2025 and 2095, with a central estimate of 2050, if global carbon emissions are not reduced. Evidence from past collapses indicates changes of temperature of 10C in a few decades, although these occurred during ice ages. [I wonder what the Romans and the Medieval Europeans did to cause this? - Melodi]
Other scientists said the assumptions about how a tipping point would play out and uncertainties in the underlying data are too large for a reliable estimate of the timing of the tipping point. But all said the prospect of an Amoc collapse was extremely concerning and should spur rapid cuts in carbon emissions. [Good luck with that! Let me know how that works out for you. - Melodi]
Amoc carries warm ocean water northwards towards the pole where it cools and sinks, driving the Atlantic’s currents. But an influx of fresh water from the accelerating melting of Greenland’s ice cap and other sources is increasingly smothering the currents.
A collapse of Amoc would have disastrous consequences around the world, severely disrupting the rains that billions of people depend on for food in India, South America and west Africa. It would increase storms and drop temperatures in Europe, and lead to a rising sea level on the eastern coast of North America. It would also further endanger the Amazon rainforest and Antarctic ice sheets.
“I think we should be very worried,” said Prof Peter Ditlevsen, at the University of Copenhagen in Denmark, and who led the new study. “This would be a very, very large change. The Amoc has not been shut off for 12,000 years.”[Yep, Younger Dryas-Melodi]
The Amoc collapsed and restarted repeatedly in the cycle of ice ages that occurred from 115,000 to 12,000 years ago. It is one of the climate tipping points scientists are most concerned about as global temperatures continue to rise.
Research in 2022 showed five dangerous tipping points may already have been passed due to the 1.1C of global heating to date, including the shutdown of Amoc, the collapse of Greenland’s ice cap and an abrupt melting of carbon-rich permafrost.
The new study, published in the journal Nature Communications, used sea surface temperature data stretching back to 1870 as a proxy for the change in strength of Amoc currents over time.
The researchers then mapped this data on to the path seen in systems that are approaching a particular type of tipping point called a “saddle-node bifurcation”. The data fitted “surprisingly well”, Ditlevsen said. The researchers were then able to extrapolate the data to estimate when the tipping point was likely to occur. Further statistical analysis provided a measure of the uncertainty in the estimate.
The analysis is based on greenhouse gas emissions rising as they have done to date. If emissions do start to fall, as intended by current climate policies, then the world would have more time to try to keep global temperature below the Amoc tipping point. [Oh really, well they try prayers and exorcisms in the 14th century, but keep trying the magic solutions may work eventually - Melodi]
The most recent assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that Amoc would not collapse this century. But Ditlevsen said the models used have coarse resolution and are not adept at analysing the non-linear processes involved, which may make them overly conservative.
The potential collapse of Amoc is intensely debated by scientists, who have previously said it must be avoided “at all costs”. [Can someone please pull me off the floor from laughing now, its disturbing the cats lol! - Melodi]
Prof Niklas Boers, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, revealed the early warning signs of Amoc collapse in 2021. “The results of the new study sound alarming but if the uncertainties in the heavily oversimplified model [of the tipping point] and in the underlying [sea temperature] data are included, then it becomes clear that these uncertainties are too large to make any reliable estimate of the time of tipping.”
Prof David Thornalley, at University College London, UK, agreed the study had large caveats and unknowns and said further research was essential: “But if the statistics are robust and a relevant way to describe how the actual Amoc behaves, then this is a very concerning result.”
Dr Levke Caesar, at the University of Bremen, Germany, said using sea surface temperatures as proxy data for the strength of the Amoc currents was a key source of uncertainty: “We only have direct observational data of the Amoc since 2004.”
The extrapolation in the new analysis was reasonable, according to Prof Tim Lenton, at the University of Exeter, UK. He said the tipping point could lead to a partial Amoc collapse, for example only in the Labrador Sea, but that this would still cause major impacts. Ditlevsen said he hoped the debate would drive new research: “It’s always fruitful when you do not exactly agree.”
Prof Stefan Rahmstorf, at the University of Potsdam, Germany, said: “There is still large uncertainty where the Amoc tipping point is, but the new study adds to the evidence that it is much closer than we thought. A single study provides limited evidence, but when multiple approaches have led to similar conclusions this must be taken very seriously, especially when we’re talking about a risk that we really want to rule out with 99.9% certainty. Now we can’t even rule out crossing the tipping point in the next decade or two.”
Notice the new name AMOC, just to confuse people - Melodi
Profit of Doom
Dismember
Your new avatar?
700 years ago is certainly the “distant past.” Evidently you’re stuck in “geological time.” Might wanna shake yourself out of that.
SouthernBreeze
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Has Earth's ocean currents gone through cycles in the past? Has Earth's climate gone through cycles in the past? Has the sun gone through cycles in the past? Yes, yes, and yes, for the last roughly 6000 yrs. (Biblical age of the Earth). Will all these go through cycles in the future? Yes, and it has nothing to do with man-made global warming. Will all the different cycle changes get more extreme in the future? Yes, and more so as the end approaches. Man has nothing to do with it.
Still waitin' for continental drift to be factored in. Maybe we can erect giant sails to slow it down or speed it up? How about a series of nukes to make the West Coast break off, causin' Kommiefornia to slide down and act as a chock block and keep us from bumpin' into Asia? Or tether giant blimps filled by methane from cow farts that'll lift North America up and blow us East, to increase the size of the Pacific Ocean?
Remember, you heard it here first so you can "prep" for all eventualities.
Seriously, how much further North do Australia and NZ have to drift before they affect ocean currents, or have they already? If'n you can't account for variables like those, you for damned sure got no business thinkin' your "theories" and "predictions" should be given serious consideration.
Remember, you heard it here first so you can "prep" for all eventualities.
Seriously, how much further North do Australia and NZ have to drift before they affect ocean currents, or have they already? If'n you can't account for variables like those, you for damned sure got no business thinkin' your "theories" and "predictions" should be given serious consideration.
Seriously? You’re trying to argue that continental drift is accounting for this? Billions of years worth and “suddenly” something happens? You need to layoff the shrooms.
Sorry, sir. Thought anybody in their right mind would recognize a parody when they saw it.
I am, however, suggesting that the drifting is becomin' more pronounced, with Australia havin' to make adjustments to GPS co-ordinates. Just where is the tipping point to cause weather-affecting currents such as the Japanese Current to shift?
At 2800 feet on the Blue Ridge, bring it.
Melodi
Disaster Cat
We are discussing geo-climatic events, so 700 years is not the Distant Past. It is also interesting that the upheavals of the 14th century, many of which were caused by this ocean's current/climatic problems, helped make that period similar in relatively recent European history to the late 20th and early 21st centuries regarding geopolitical events.
I suggest you read Barbara Tuchman's book A Distant Mirror and come back to discuss this one.
Also, as I noticed, to avoid "inconvenient questions," they only mention the partial collapse of the current 1600 years ago (Fall of the Western Roman Empire/Start of the Dark Ages) because they know their intended audience (the Brits) do not see the High Middle Ages as The Distant Past either. They see it as The Past and not the recent past (that is, The Early Modern Period starting in the early 1500s), but they (and I) would see the Migration Age (Dark Ages) collapse as relatively distance and the Younger Dryas (12000 years ago) as really Distant Past.
But this article's central joke is that humans can stop this by counting their carbon credits or something.