GB Appling
Contributing Member
I think they will load us all into cattle cars before the weather kills us.
ENVR Atlantic Ocean current could collapse soon. How you may endure dramatic weather changes.
- Thread starter mzkitty
- Start date
I’m not reading that. I read light fiction these days for entertainment. If you choose to live in your hermitage and never pull your face out of dusty tomes that only 5 others in the world have ever read, feel free. But I’m not.
Melodi
Disaster Cat
Would you happen to know her other book, the Guns of August? That's about the start of WW1, and John Kennedy made his entire cabinet read it (it is a much harder read than the one I suggested). Several historians believe that making them read this book saved the world during the Cuban Missile Crises. It wasn't the only reason, but it was thought that reading the book warned the cabinet members not to march into an all-out war unless they had no choice. That waiting those few extra hours and trying to parlay with Russia was better than the alternative than making a first strike.
As for Dusty Tomes, we've had entire threads on A Distant Mirror on the forum over the twenty-plus years I've been here. Its descriptions of what happens to a society (all of Europe) hit by the combination of famine, plague, and war; are pretty valuable for many preppers.
Oh, and we used it to write some of the "Light Fiction" that your read. I devised the outline for the historical-fantasy novel trilogy that Nightwolf and I wrote together one night on a napkin using a copy of A Distant Mirror as the background material.
So, if you are curious about what happens when the known world collapses around everyone so badly, some people wonder if God has failed and Satan might be a better alternative. You can skip the history book and just read the novels. There's a link in the thread in the community forum.
As for Dusty Tomes, we've had entire threads on A Distant Mirror on the forum over the twenty-plus years I've been here. Its descriptions of what happens to a society (all of Europe) hit by the combination of famine, plague, and war; are pretty valuable for many preppers.
Oh, and we used it to write some of the "Light Fiction" that your read. I devised the outline for the historical-fantasy novel trilogy that Nightwolf and I wrote together one night on a napkin using a copy of A Distant Mirror as the background material.
So, if you are curious about what happens when the known world collapses around everyone so badly, some people wonder if God has failed and Satan might be a better alternative. You can skip the history book and just read the novels. There's a link in the thread in the community forum.
oops
Veteran Member
Sigh…the native Americans used to say the Great Lakes would drain down the Ohio Valley…I trust their thoughts farther than those pushin man made crap any day…then I look at what I can do about any of the threats…not a dang thing but hold on for the wild ride…thx b I had common sense grandparents n parents to drill stuff in the noggin…
Melodi
Disaster Cat
Oh, but you can do something. In this case, you spend just a couple of hours online (a lot easier than using libraries like I used to do) and look up the climate in your area during the last several low oscillation periods. The ones from 1600 onward will be the most used in North America. The worst period was about the time of the Revolutionary War (remember Washington crossing the nearly frozen river and his men dying in the snow?). That goes through about the 1830s and then starts to improve. Before that, you'll be stuck with a combination of educated scientific guesses (go to the sites that talk about the ice core and tree ring records) along with any of that great Native American lore you can get that is close to your area.
For most of the Northern US, your biggest concern will be a common-sense understanding that Winters may be longer and growing seasons shorter. Summers may not be much cooler, but they may be milder and shorter. The South West and even parts of Southern California may become unlivable without water desalination or other modern water-finding methods. The first three European colonies in Los Angeles (New Spain) in the early fifteen and sixteen hundred died of thirst. Some South-Western Native Americans had to leave their homes on the cliff tops and move down into the less secure areas because their water ran out higher up.
But after a couple of evenings of looking into this, you can settle in and maybe order seeds you might want if the climate changes where you are. Look at weatherizing your house or putting in wood-burning stoves like we did (and you have done already). Then sit back and watch the news. I also ordered some long wool underwear from Denmark this year, and we already do a lot of knitting and textile work, so we don't need extra.
Not big things just awareness and buying some things we will use anyway, but might need for longer periods of time if the Winters go back to the way they were when the house was built.
and, if the climate cools there is less evaporation from the ocean so less rain. So cooler and drier. Melodi am I correct on this ?? Thanks
Melodi
Disaster Cat
I think it depends on where you are, a lot of climate is local, especially when it comes to growing crops and the exact local conditions. The UK and Ireland tend to get cold and snowy Winters, but possibly with more dry air (I'd have to check). Again in Europe and The Eastern Seaboard, that ocean current dramatically changes things.
I know that in the 14th century, the early change periods were the more dramatic, with climate swinging wildly back and forth. With giant windstorms, rains, droughts; unpredictable weather (or growing seasons) for a few years (like the 1320s), when going into something like this; followed by more excellent stability but with changed conditions (long-snowy winters, short but often hot summers) once things settle into the new pattern.
Things were made much worse in the Migration Age/Dark Age period (and not mentioned in the article), but at least, if not two, dramatic volcanic explosions that were so bad the sun didn't shine for two years! That was recorded in 536 from Greece to China. In that climatic change, many European people had to move south because the storms and flooding in the north washed their lands and homes away. The weather was violent, forcing people to move south or die. Hence the Barbarian Invasions...
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
THE Earth Disaster Documentary
RT 1:33:22 - SuspiciousObservers
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packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
Yes, I’m aware of that book, though I haven’t read it. I’ve gotten enough doomer porn from running this place to last five lifetimes.
On a different note, I love IGNORE
On a different note, I love IGNORE
Marthanoir
TB Fanatic
Am I gonna need snow tyres, how do you keep palm trees warm in a blizzard.
I actually have photos of the palm trees covered in snow from the last big snowfall in 2010
I actually have photos of the palm trees covered in snow from the last big snowfall in 2010
There are lots of warm weather plants in the Austin area. In that week long ice event in 2021, a buttload of foliage (including palms) were killed.
Marthanoir
TB Fanatic
Snow lasting more than 2 days here would be a harsh winter,
The winter here is very mild because of Atlantic conveyor,
Melodi
Disaster Cat
But in the dusty old farm annals from the 5th to the 10th century or so in Ireland, there are reports of weathers so harsh the snow came in October and stayed until April and other Winters that were so mild that it never got cold. In both cases, they say: "And many men and cattle died." They either froze to death (and had no food) or died of diseases because it never got cold enough to keep all those dang bugs we get every summer.
That book is a dusty old tome, but valuable if you live on this Island and want to learn about the local climate - which is pretty much that almost anything except extreme heat is "normal" for a period of years, and by excessive heat, I mean 90 degrees F or above.
Melodi
Disaster Cat
And you know the government is worried about this when it shows up on the BBC, which doesn't mean it will happen, but it does mean they are afraid it might and spoil their "All Global Warming - All the Time" meme. So now the BBC is saying this hasn't happened in 12,000 years (which is true for a total collapse - but not a weakening and move South which has occurred ever few hundred years or less. But there's nothing to see here, move along...
- Melodi
Will the Gulf Stream really collapse by 2025?
Published
4 hours ago
By Georgina Rannard
BBC Climate & Science reporter
The Gulf Stream system of warm ocean currents could collapse as early as 2025, a scientific study has warned.
The end of the system, which drives the Atlantic's currents and determines western Europe's weather, would probably lead to lower temperatures and catastrophic climate impacts.
But leading scientists have reservations about the study and say it is not established science.
It is far from certain the system will shut down this century, they say.
The most recent assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that the system, known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc), would not in fact collapse so quickly.
The latest study's author, Prof Peter Ditlevsen at the University of Copenhagen, told BBC News that other scientists had warned about the potential for collapse of the Amoc.
"There's been worries that this current is weakening for as long as we have had measurements of it - since 2004," he said.
The Amoc is a complicated set of currents that bring warm water north towards the pole, where it cools and sinks.
But as global temperatures rise with global warming, fresh water is pouring into the Amoc from the melting Greenland ice cap and other sources.
It if collapses, it could lower temperatures by up to 10 or 15 degrees in Europe and lead to rising sea levels in the eastern US. It would also disrupt rain that billions rely on for agriculture.
The last time Amoc stopped and restarted was during Ice Ages about 115,000 to 12,000 years ago.
It estimates Amoc could collapse between 2025 and 2095.
The analysis is based on greenhouse gas emissions rising as they have done so far. If emissions started to reduce, the world would have more time to keep temperatures below the point at which Amoc would collapse.
But scientists including Ben Booth at the Met Office Hadley Centre say the paper's conclusions "are far from settled science".
"We just don't have the evidence to state that it has declined," says Prof Penny Holliday at the National Oceanography Centre.
"We know that there is a possibility that Amoc could stop what it's doing now at some point, but it's really hard to have certainty about that," she says.
"If my neighbour asked me if I should worry about heatwaves or the Amoc collapse, I'd say worry about temperatures. We know that is already happening and will get worse," she said.
The reasons for many scientists' reservations is that they say the study's authors made a series of assumptions about how to understand Amoc.
But the climate system is extremely complex and experts do not have all the evidence they need to fully understand the Amoc.
The predictions that it could collapse as early as 2025 or by 2095 should be taken with a large grain of salt, says Jon Robson at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading.
But It does not mean that the study is not important or that the possibility of Amoc shutting down should be dismissed, they say.
"We do still have to take the idea seriously that there could be abrupt changes in the North Atlantic climate system," says Prof Robson.
"But the exact predictions that it will happen and within this time frame - you have to take that with some scepticism," he adds.
- Melodi
Will the Gulf Stream really collapse by 2025?
A new paper says its collapse could be imminent, but other scientists have serious reservations.
www.bbc.com
Will the Gulf Stream really collapse by 2025?
Published
4 hours ago
By Georgina Rannard
BBC Climate & Science reporter
The Gulf Stream system of warm ocean currents could collapse as early as 2025, a scientific study has warned.
The end of the system, which drives the Atlantic's currents and determines western Europe's weather, would probably lead to lower temperatures and catastrophic climate impacts.
But leading scientists have reservations about the study and say it is not established science.
It is far from certain the system will shut down this century, they say.
The most recent assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that the system, known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc), would not in fact collapse so quickly.
The latest study's author, Prof Peter Ditlevsen at the University of Copenhagen, told BBC News that other scientists had warned about the potential for collapse of the Amoc.
"There's been worries that this current is weakening for as long as we have had measurements of it - since 2004," he said.
The Amoc is a complicated set of currents that bring warm water north towards the pole, where it cools and sinks.
But as global temperatures rise with global warming, fresh water is pouring into the Amoc from the melting Greenland ice cap and other sources.
It if collapses, it could lower temperatures by up to 10 or 15 degrees in Europe and lead to rising sea levels in the eastern US. It would also disrupt rain that billions rely on for agriculture.
The last time Amoc stopped and restarted was during Ice Ages about 115,000 to 12,000 years ago.
It estimates Amoc could collapse between 2025 and 2095.
The analysis is based on greenhouse gas emissions rising as they have done so far. If emissions started to reduce, the world would have more time to keep temperatures below the point at which Amoc would collapse.
But scientists including Ben Booth at the Met Office Hadley Centre say the paper's conclusions "are far from settled science".
"We just don't have the evidence to state that it has declined," says Prof Penny Holliday at the National Oceanography Centre.
"We know that there is a possibility that Amoc could stop what it's doing now at some point, but it's really hard to have certainty about that," she says.
"If my neighbour asked me if I should worry about heatwaves or the Amoc collapse, I'd say worry about temperatures. We know that is already happening and will get worse," she said.
The reasons for many scientists' reservations is that they say the study's authors made a series of assumptions about how to understand Amoc.
But the climate system is extremely complex and experts do not have all the evidence they need to fully understand the Amoc.
The predictions that it could collapse as early as 2025 or by 2095 should be taken with a large grain of salt, says Jon Robson at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading.
But It does not mean that the study is not important or that the possibility of Amoc shutting down should be dismissed, they say.
"We do still have to take the idea seriously that there could be abrupt changes in the North Atlantic climate system," says Prof Robson.
"But the exact predictions that it will happen and within this time frame - you have to take that with some scepticism," he adds.
Marthanoir
TB Fanatic
Yes , thats what makes me laugh when they say things like Hottest June on record or warmest Jan since records began , they mean the official meteorological records going back to the mid 1800's not the thousands of years old info in Trinity Library etc.
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
Trinity Library?
Melodi
Disaster Cat
The National University holds important Irish archives, things like "The Trinity Harp," and thousands of books. Similar to the Cambridge Library. Trinity also has the original Book of Kells and similar documents, including the Irish Farming anals. I read them in translation (not all) in an excellent book about them by a historian specializing in ancient and early modern Irish agriculture. I also have a friend getting a degree in early Irish foods at Trinity College, who knows them much better than I do. I think he can read some of it in the original Irish.
Marthanoir
TB Fanatic
What Mel said, founded in 1592, its also the national archives of Ireland , and the copyright archive for published works
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
Thanks, will have to check this out!
Marthanoir
TB Fanatic
You'll love it , lots of ancient historical documents, lots that were handed down by the seanchaí until the sixth century when the monks started to record everything in writing,
They also have all the historical copies of the Old Moore's Almanac which has been published since 1764.
I'm sure Melodi is a big fan
Predictions, Horoscopes & More | The Old Moore's Almanac
Old Moore's Almanac has been making predictions since 1764. Discover our predictions & horoscopes plus articles about Irish history, future trends and more
oldmooresalmanac.com
Thanks Melodi
Meadowlark
Has No Life - Lives on TB
According to Al Gore we should have been underwater already. Nuff said.
It’s Algwhore
oops
Veteran Member
Today’s weather folks generally only go back something like 20 yrs for current weather stats…hubby n I used to watch “local” weather n laugh about their highs n lows n avg numbers…could get out his grannys diaries n prove them wrong repeatedly… as I was taught in my statistics class…garbage is garbage out,,,n todays stat people…give lotsa garbage due to what they put in…
if the poles did flip and the earth's crust shift as Ben and others have hypothesized, with the new north pole being the region of the bay of Bengal, then, if you use Google earth to set things that way, mid north America will be at the equator afterwards.
Magnetic equator perhaps, but not the physical equator. And the earth’s crust isn’t going to shift. At least not and have mankind survive to tell the tale. And gps renders magnetic poles superfluous.
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
It happens every 12,000 years give a few years or so... the next predicted date is...
wait for it....
2030.
As I said on the other thread, magnetic poles have nothing to do with weather. It will be a non-event when it happens.
what else can explain the instantly frozen mammoths found in Siberia with undigested vegetation from the temperate zone in their stomachs?
I’m not a paleontologist (and neither are you), so neither you nor I are qualified to answer that question.
vector7
Dot Collector
UN chief says Earth in ‘era of global boiling’
The UN is a terrorist organization.
View: https://twitter.com/chiIIum/status/1684561889584644097?s=20
The UN is a terrorist organization.
View: https://twitter.com/chiIIum/status/1684561889584644097?s=20
SquonkHunter
Geezer (ret.)
Don't forget to add the Milankovitch cycles into the mix.
vector7
Dot Collector
BIDEN: "We also have a number of programs to do everything from allow people to have the ability to get help to literally paint their roofs white!"
RT 1min
View: https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1684601441711685639?s=20
RT 1min
View: https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1684601441711685639?s=20