ALERT 8 feet of snow. 48 foot waves. A Bomb Cyclone To Hit PNW and Canada Coastline

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
We will start with rain tonight and then a real mess starting next week.


8 feet of snow! Up to 48 feet waves! A beast of a bomb cyclone is about to hit the coast of the northwestern United States and western Canada
Oct 21, 202

bomb cyclone and atmospheric river to lash US Northwest and western Canada this weekBomb cyclone and atmospheric river to lash US Northwest and western Canada this week

Can you imagine that? Weather forecasters are saying a bomb cyclone could bury the western coast of North America in up to 8 feet of snow and trigger waves of 48 feet in the Pacific Ocean! This bombogenesis will also be accompanied by a powerful atmospheric river already known for its heavy rains and dangerous flash flooding.

A beast of a bomb cyclone will take shape just off the coast of the northwestern United States and western Canada later this week, and AccuWeather forecasters say it will rival, in some aspects, the intensity of strong hurricanes from the Atlantic this season.
The powerful storm will bring dangerous and damaging impacts up and down the West Coast, but the precipitation it will deliver to parts of California, Oregon and Washington is greatly needed.

The storm will have some tropical origins
Satellite imagery indicates that the moisture associated with this storm train will be transported all the way from India and other parts of southeast Asia across the northern Pacific and into the western U.S..
Energy from former Severe Tropical Storm Namtheun, which churned over the western Pacific, will join forces with a non-tropical system sitting over the northern Pacific on Wednesday.

Rapid strengthening will result. As the storm comes together a few hundred miles off the coasts of Washington and British Columbia, its intensification could easily surpass the criteria for bombogenesis.
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
We had the gust front yesterday including an official high wind warning for Portland Metro area. We also have above 80% rain chance Saturday the 23rd, the 24th, the 25th, and Tuesday the 26th. 96% chance on Sunday, all of which GUARANTEES fairly bad urban flooding, and WILD ASS FLOODING ON THE COAST.

Yeah, Alaska Sue, I will watch for your yellow dinghy floating UP the Willammette River downtown. :D

Seriously, while we do need the Mountain Snow, 8 feet all at once is a tad bit much. At least the snow/ski crowd will be skiing by Halloween.

Yep, it looks like a two week rain everyday cycle that I have come to looooooooooove here in Portland as we head into winter. No urban snow at all, much too warm for that, but Mount Hood is looking whiter than some systemic racism.:jstr:
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
8 feet of snow is 10 inches of rain.


bottom line is all the usual places that flood on the Oregon coast are going to flood, and JP&G may have flooding issues from Johnson Creek etc .Yep, a real mess headed our way.
 
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mecoastie

Veteran Member
8 feet of snow is 10 inches of rain times 8 for 80 inches of rain, combined with however much rain we get in inches.

bottom line is all the usual places that flood on the Oregon coast are going to flood, and JP&G may have flooding issues from Johnson Creek etc .Yep, a real mess headed our way.
Why are you multiplying by 10. 8 ft of snow is about 10 inches of rain.
 

Pinecone

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I hope it doesn't take anymore of my trees down... I lost a bunch during the ice storm... Damn
Amen!

That said, the weathermen have been drama queens the last few years. And it seems to get worse every season. One of these days, they'll be right.

(OK, they were right about the ice storm. It was bad. Very bad. They missed one of our wind storms which took down trees, and keep forecasting wind storms which never come.)
 
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May 13, 2013

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Confirmation.....



The Strongest Storm in Northwest History Could Reach Our Coastal Waters On Sunday

On Sunday, the most powerful storm in Northwest history, with the lowest central pressure ever observed in our region, will approach our coast.

There are still uncertainties with its track...as well as its impacts on the region. But there is now little doubt that an extraordinary event is in store, as unusual as the June heatwave. This blog will fill you in on the details.

The Current Offshore Storm


The offshore storm today was one of the strongest on record, with the sea level pressure in its center dropping to around 951 hPa-- in the range of a category three hurricane.

I have studied such intense midlatitude cyclones (low-pressure areas) for years, and the lowest central pressure in the historical record off our coast is 950 hPa.

The satellite image this morning shows an impressive storm, with clouds swirling into the low center. And a front is about to make landfall on our coast, resulting in substantial precipitation over land.



As predicted, this storm produced extreme winds along the coast of Vancouver Island, including 100 mph at Solander Island on the north coast (see a map of winds at 9 AM, gusts are in red). Only 40-50 mph gusts along the Washington coast.


The Monster Storm on Sunday

What is predicted for Sunday is a different animal....a far more powerful and dangerous one. An unprecedented animal. And an animal whose moves are still somewhat uncertain, unlike the last storm, which proved to be highly predictable and stable.

Below is the forecast sea-level pressure on Sunday at 11 AM by the U.S. GFS model.

I could not believe my eyes when I saw this. 942 hPa central pressure. Never has a storm with such low pressure moved this far south to the waters immediately offshore of the Pacific Northwest. Not even the 1962 Columbus Day Storm (which was only 955 hPa)



The European Center model, the best in the world, has a very similar solution, but with slightly higher pressure (944 hPa). Just stunning.


Further confidence is provided by the ensemble forecasts, in which each of these models is run many times, starting with slightly different conditions. The solution is robust.

We are going to have a record-breaking monster storm off our coast...the most intense in the historical record.

But the winds on land will be controlled by the storm's path and changes in storm strength over time. Both the U.S. and European models have this system weakening as it approaches land, but the tracks are different.

The GFS model is much more threatening, with the low center moving across the northwest tip of the Olympic Peninsula. Here is the forecast for Monday at 5 PM from the UW model, which is driven by the U.S. GFS model. A 973 hPa low making landfall, with large pressure differences along the coast.


The result would be a significant windstorm for the region, with strong winds, gusting to 60-70 mph along the coast and 30-40 mph gusts in the interior. The European Center prediction takes the storm further north (see below), greatly reducing impacts on the Northwest.


As a general rule, I would bet on the European Center model, which suggests that we won't get a major blow in the interior. But with such a strong storm and so much uncertainty, my colleagues and I will have to watch developments carefully. By tomorrow, we should have a reliable track for the storm, so keep tuned.
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marsh

TB Fanatic
Down the coast below Sacramento, we started getting the tail of this yesterday with some minor sprinkles. It is supposed to crescendo this weekend and end on Wednesday. Just a nice, much needed storm at this latitude

It should help put out some wildfires and begin to build up snow pack in the mountains. It rains very little in summer, so melted snowpack is the source of much of the instream flow of our rivers and fills our reservoirs, which are nearly empty. Many of CA's farms and orchards were cut off from irrigation water this year because of drought. (Two-thirds of the country's fruits and nuts are grown in California.)
 

West

Senior nut
When I lived in Siskiyou County (more Southern Oregon than No. California) in the late 80s and early 90s We made time to chase some buried treasure rumors. Specifically Black Barts stories of hidding stage coach cached treasures.

I did a bunch of microfiche research and old newspapers stories/reports at the local museum and other resources.

Anyway back in the 1850s to 1950s, it was VARY common to have up to and over 10 feet of snow pack in the winters on the passes. In Siskiyou County California. Even pictures of 15 plus foot walls of snow on each side of the pacific rail road at the passes. And over 6 feet of snow pack in the valley's.

So a 8 foot snow is not global climate change, but indeed just normal weather!

The climate change dick heads are just idiots.
 

dawgofwar10

Veteran Member
8 feet of snow is 10 inches of rain times 8 for 80 inches of rain, combined with however much rain we get in inches.

bottom line is all the usual places that flood on the Oregon coast are going to flood, and JP&G may have flooding issues from Johnson Creek etc .Yep, a real mess headed our way.
I tried that formula on my wife, it did not work. Then I hit her with the 6” in 6” out equals 12 inches, that one not did work either.
 
I could not believe my eyes when I saw this. 942 hPa central pressure. Never has a storm with such low pressure moved this far south to the waters immediately offshore of the Pacific Northwest. Not even the 1962 Columbus Day Storm (which was only 955 hPa) .

I remember the 1962 storm. Power pole with transformer and lines fell and blocked the road in front of the family car. Complete with fireworks, spark arcs, and explosions.

If this storm is worse - God Help Us, Everyone.
 

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
Okay, depending on how wet the snow is you can range from 5 to 15 inches of rain. Bottom line is a :poop: load of rain is headed into coastal areas from Alaska to Southern Oregon and that means heavy flooding
I'd say 5 days of near constant rain at 1 to 2 inches per day means massive urban flooding.

No kids for halloween either unless they have a destroyer.
 
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Okay, depending on how wet the snow is you can range from 5 to 15 inches of rain. Bottom line is a :poop: load of rain is headed into coastal areas from Alaska to Southern Oregon and that means heavy flooding
I'd say 5 days of near constant rain with at least 40 inches of rain at 5 inches of water out of 80 for 8 feet.
And 40 inches of rain over 5 days in the greater Portland area means massive urban flooding.

No kids for halloween either unless they have a destroyer.

You forgot the wind Doug.

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Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic

Trio of storms to parade through West Coast, shut down wildfire season
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist & Meghan Mussoline, AccuWeather meteorologist

The powerful storm is expected to drop feet of snow and monstrous amounts of precipitation, effectively ending the wildfire season but also causing flood worries. :lkick: flood worries oh that is choice.

A powerful bomb cyclone developed over the northern Pacific Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The massive storm will be the catalyst that ushers in storm after storm to the West Coast through next Tuesday, unleashing nearly 2 feet of rain in some areas and up to several feet of snow over the mountains. Even though the precipitation is much needed across the drought-stricken region, it could lead to serious flooding, mudslides and significant threats to lives and property.

As the storm train began, gale warnings, high wind warnings and advisories and flash flood warnings were in effect from Northern California through Washington on Thursday.

But the storm won’t be all bad news.

"This rainfall is coming about a month ahead of average and will be very welcome in fighting the remaining fires, particularly in Northern California," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said. "Repeated storms delivering such copious rainfall will have a major effect on the wildfire season – effectively ending the wildfire season from Northern California northward," Porter added.


Wildfires have burned 1.9 million acres in California in 2021, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. Eight out of the 17 massive fires burning in the United States were all raging in California, as of Thursday.

On the other hand, rainfall will come "too fast and too furious” in some areas with rates of up to 2 inches an hour, according to Porter. The excessive rainfall could result in flash flooding and other dangers like mudslides, particularly in burn scar areas from wildfires that charred the ground in recent years.


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The AccuWeather Wind Flow map shows the circulation of the first bomb cyclone, offshore from the Pacific Northwest on the afternoon of Oct. 21, 2021.

Satellite images showed the storm spinning over the northern Pacific -- taking on an almost hurricane-like appearance -- just off the coast of western Canada and the Northwest on Thursday. The storm’s central atmospheric pressure plummeted to 28.14 inches of mercury (953 millibars) by Thursday morning — down from 29.12 inches of mercury (986 millibars) on Wednesday and enough to meet the official criteria for bombogenesis, which occurs when a storm’s central pressure drops by at least 0.71 of an inch of mercury (24 millibars) within 24 hours.
Its central pressure dropped to lower than that of Hurricane Larry, which was a Category 3 storm over the Atlantic early in September and packed sustained winds up to 125 mph. Larry's lowest central pressure was 28.20 inches of mercury (955 millibars).

Around noon Thursday local time, data from Environment Canada began to give an idea of the storm's power. Wind gusts up to 100 mph were reported at Solander Island and 31-foot waves were measured offshore from Vancouver Island.
A wide satellite view provided a stark visual of what's in store for the West Coast over the next several days. Three storms lined up over the northern Pacific Ocean are headed for the western U.S. and will each bring varying degrees of intensity and impacts, but the cumulative effects of all three storms will be dramatic.

The bomb cyclone will be the first of the three storms to impact the U.S. West Coast through the last Tuesday of October, according to AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.

Its most severe impacts will take aim at the coast of British Columbia, where torrential rainfall and fierce winds will unfold through late week. Farther south, a strong cold front associated with the storm will trigger heavy rain, gusty winds and punishing seas from Washington to Northern California into Thursday night. Ahead of the system’s rainfall, the National Weather Service (NWS) issued an excessive rainfall alert in Northern California and southwestern Oregon. The soaking precipitation could result in flash flooding in that region.

"A general 1-3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts will fall on portions of Northern California and southern Oregon into Thursday night," Rayno said.

A weaker storm will follow and pivot ashore from Washington to Northern California on Saturday, and its rainfall will set the stage for more concerns as the third storm gathers strength over the Pacific. That next storm in the train may undergo rapid intensification and become another bomb cyclone, although this one is likely to form farther to the south. That means it will result in heavier precipitation and stronger winds along the West Coast — and it will pull in deep tropical moisture from the Pacific, creating what meteorologists refer to as an atmospheric river. ie PineApple Express

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Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic

Pacific Northwest Bomb Cyclone Update as Washington, Oregon Brace for Major Storm
October 21, 2021

Pacific Northwest Bomb Cyclone Update as Washington, Oregon Brace for Major Storm




The Pacific Northwest is bracing itself for a series of storms including what is known as a “bomb cyclone,” which is expected to bring heavy rain and wind over the weekend and into next week.

Forecasters have said the system currently developing off the coast will in some ways rival the intensity of strong hurricanes from the Atlantic this season and rain will smash parts of California, Oregon and Washington.


The term “bomb” cyclone is a relatively new one. It was used for decades among meteorologists to describe a rapidly strengthening storm, but only came into common parlance in 2018, the network KXLY reported.

A study in 1980 defined a weather bomb, which is also sometimes called bombogenesis, as a rapid drop in pressure of 24 millibars in 24 hours, the Spokane, Washington network said.

The latest system is expected on Thursday to bring winds of up to 70 mph, similar to those of a strong tropical storm. There are wind warnings in place for coastal British Columbia, Canada, while winds on the Washington and Oregon coasts are forecast to be much milder, at around 30 to 40 mph.

Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik, an agricultural meteorologist for Washington State University, predicted that the storm would “explode out of nowhere.”

“What is remarkable is how big it is in scale, how deep the center is and the speed with which it goes from an open wave to a super-intense low-pressure system,” Boomgard-Zagrodnik said, according to The Seattle Times.


The storm, bringing plenty of wind and rain, will also act as a catalyst for other storms of lesser intensity targeting the Pacific coast of the U.S. and Canada, according to AccuWeather.

“Strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph can also be expected for coastal sections of Washington and Oregon from Wednesday to Thursday,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Randy Adkins.

Wind Damage May Be Minor
Waves over the coastal Northwest could head as far north as the Aleutian Islands, “but with the center of the bomb cyclone forecast to remain offshore, wind damage will be relatively minor and will certainly pale in comparison to the bomb cyclone from Thanksgiving week in 2019,” Adkins added.

Conditions are likely to stay stormy in the coastal Northwest into next week and head southward through the Southern California coast next week.
Emily Heller, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Sacramento office, said the heaviest rain near the Californian capital is expected Sunday and Monday, The Sacramento Bee reported.

However, the expected rain dump comes at an opportune time for the Golden State where Governor Gavin Newsom has declared a state of drought.
“One storm is great, but we’re going to need a couple to get us back to a robust and healthy storage condition,” Erik Ekdahl, from the State Water Resources Control Board, told board members, according to The Bee.

The post Pacific Northwest Bomb Cyclone Update as Washington, Oregon Brace for Major Storm appeared first on Newsweek.
Tags: cycloneStormWashingtonWeather
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marsh

TB Fanatic
Wildfires can produce hyperphobic soils. This happens when intense heat burns plant/organic matter and produces a waxy substance that repels water, rather than absorbing it and allowing it to percolate subsurface. Following a fire, it is common to cover the soil with weed free straw to avoid erosion.

There was a lot of land burned in the west this year. Raw, exposed soil, particularly on slopes or near watercourses, will be particularly vulnerable to mud-slides.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Pray for it to sag southward

Lake Oroville reservoir
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Folsom Lake
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Lake Shasta
1634873873155.png
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Here is long range weather prediction:


NOAA's Winter Outlook Warns Of 'Double Dip' La Nina, Expect Colder Than Normal Pacific Northwest

THURSDAY, OCT 21, 2021 - 10:30 PM

La Niña conditions are emerging for the second consecutive winter, impacting the weather across the U.S. in the coming months. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) announced Thursday its seasonal outlook for winter from December 2021 through February 2022.

NOAA's 2021 Winter Outlook outlines wetter-than-average conditions for the Northern U.S., mainly in the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and western Alaska. The report said widespread drought in the western half of the U.S. would continue to be monitored.

"Consistent with typical La Nina conditions during winter months, we anticipate below-normal temperatures along portions of the northern tier of the U.S. while much of the South experience above-normal temperatures," said Jon Gottschalck, chief of CPC.
"The Southwest will certainly remain a region of concern as we anticipate below-normal precipitation where drought conditions continue in most areas," Gottschalck said.
NOAA's temperature outlook for the States:
  • Warmer-than-average conditions are most likely across the Southern tier of the U.S. and much of the Eastern U.S., with the greatest likelihood of above-average temperatures in the Southeast.
  • Below-average temperatures are favored for southeast Alaska and the Pacific Northwest eastward to the northern Plains.
  • The Upper Mississippi Valley and small areas of the Great Lakes have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.


The potential development for a double-dip La Niña will also influence precipitation outlooks:
  • The Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes, and parts of the Ohio Valley and western Alaska have the greatest chances for wetter-than-average conditions.
  • Drier-than-average conditions are favored in south-central Alaska, southern California, the Southwest, and the Southeast.
  • The forecast for the remainder of the U.S. shows equal chances for below-, near- or above-average precipitation during winter months.


To sum up, La Niña conditions will push the jet stream further north, which leads to a drier and warmer pattern across the Deep South to Southeast. This doesn't mean those areas won't be hit with Arctic blasts, similar to what nearly collapsed Texas' power grid in February. The Lone Star State appears to be taking no chances this year and next as it warned power companies to brace for cold snaps and upgrade systems to avoid blackouts.
 

Donghe Surfer

Contributing Member
I told the kids weeks ago here in NW that I think this winter will finally have some serious snow and days off. This storm coming is rather earlier. As they say, it's now Global Colding, as Global Warming is out to pasture.
 
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