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WEATHER Tropical Disturbance in 5 day forecast.
- Thread starter Millwright
- Start date
Bumped to 40% in the 5 day forecast.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of disturbed weather is located over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea, associated with a surface trough of low pressure.
Some slow development is possible, and a tropical depression could
form by late this week if the system remains over water. The
disturbance is expected to move northwestward near the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras during that time. Regardless of
development, this system could produce periods of heavy rainfall
across portions of eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras late this
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Forecaster Hogsett/Pasch
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of disturbed weather is located over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea, associated with a surface trough of low pressure.
Some slow development is possible, and a tropical depression could
form by late this week if the system remains over water. The
disturbance is expected to move northwestward near the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras during that time. Regardless of
development, this system could produce periods of heavy rainfall
across portions of eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras late this
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Forecaster Hogsett/Pasch
WAG, spaghetti models are all over the place.
They've backed it down to 30% chance of formation.
Looks like it will left hook back onto land and fizzle.
Looks like it will left hook back onto land and fizzle.
Starting to see those pulses come out into the Atlantic from Affica.
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
Looks like this might be one of those years when central america gets a lot of tropical storms.
The gulf is getting warm.
SmithJ
Veteran Member
So is the land!The gulf is getting warm.
One of those pulses off Affica is getting traction.
Post #1 is auto updated.
Post #1 is auto updated.
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
Thanks for the heads up, depending on where it lands, and what it becomes, it could prevent the cold front from pushing through this weekend for the upper midwest.
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
Yes it is a ways out, however, these things have a tendency to have an affect/effect on the cold fronts that come down out of Canada days before they even come close to the states.
BUBBAHOTEPT
Veteran Member
Firebird
Veteran Member
It needs to go to Texas and give them some relief
The evening bump made it an orange X.
40% chance of development into a TC.
The spaghetti guesses have it going everywhere but CONUS.
40% chance of development into a TC.
The spaghetti guesses have it going everywhere but CONUS.
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
RT 5:14
HURRICANE Brewing in Atlantic Ocean?! - Tropical Storm Celia Update!
The Atlantic Ocean has a major development that could become a tropical storm or hurricane! Also, Tropical Storm Celia will likely become a hurricane! Here's everything that YOU need to know!
The Hammer
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Lot of time to watch this one.
A little something in the northern gulf has their interest.
Firebird
Veteran Member
Texas could sure use some cooling rains
They think the thing in the gulf is worth a yellow X now. The one in the Atlantic made red.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of this
week. This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over
the tropical Atlantic, approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday, and
move across the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and
Thursday. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
2. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from
southeastern Louisiana across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and
the Florida peninsula is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Slow development of this system could occur as it drifts westward
across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Blake/Bucci
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of this
week. This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over
the tropical Atlantic, approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday, and
move across the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and
Thursday. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
2. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from
southeastern Louisiana across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and
the Florida peninsula is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Slow development of this system could occur as it drifts westward
across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Blake/Bucci
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
RT 8:38
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT in GULF OF MEXICO... Atlantic Ocean is Becoming ACTIVE!
Invest 94L is an ongoing development in the Atlantic Ocean that may become a tropical storm by as early as next week. Also, a new area of development has been noted by the National Hurricane Center in the Gulf of Mexico! Here's everything that YOU need to know!
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
And then there were three.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located about 900 miles east-southeast of the
southern Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next couple of days before the system reaches the
Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while moving westward
across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
this afternoon. Interests in the Windward Islands and along the
northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this
system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for
portions of these areas later today. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands and the
northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Development
of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves
west-southwestward at about 10 mph toward the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico and approaches the coasts of southern Texas and northeastern
Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could become conducive for
gradual development later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward at around 15 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located about 900 miles east-southeast of the
southern Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next couple of days before the system reaches the
Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while moving westward
across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
this afternoon. Interests in the Windward Islands and along the
northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this
system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for
portions of these areas later today. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands and the
northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Development
of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves
west-southwestward at about 10 mph toward the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico and approaches the coasts of southern Texas and northeastern
Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could become conducive for
gradual development later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward at around 15 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Pasch
5 day spaghetti guess.
Jeff B.
Don’t let the Piss Ants get you down…
A tropical storm would go a long way towards restoring all our reservoirs and saturating the ground. Probably break this insane dome of high pressure.
The down side is that SE Texas has a bad habit of flooding badly when it gets more than a routine rain or low pressure area.
Jeff B.
The down side is that SE Texas has a bad habit of flooding badly when it gets more than a routine rain or low pressure area.
Jeff B.
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
Three with the potential for a few more, yikes!5 day spaghetti guess.
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
RT 51:11 - Reed Timmer
LIVE emergency update on the TROPICS GOING NUTS in the Atlantic
Live update on an incredibly active tropical Atlantic for disturbances that could grow into tropical cyclones. The energized ITCZ is something we normally see in August. Watching the cluster of storms in the northern Gulf of Mexico but also the strong tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles that could become a tropical depression tomorrow. This storm now looks like it will impact Nicaragua or Honduras in 5-7 days.
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
A friend posted this on facespy and said that this is the biggest dome of high pressure she's seen in 20 years over the atlantic.
They have a cone for the westernmost system in the Atlantic.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
East of the Windward Islands:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two, located a few hundred miles east of the
southern Windward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is centered over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low has
increased overnight but remains disorganized. Some additional
development of this system is possible as it moves slowly westward
or west-southwestward and approaches the coast of Texas during the
next two days. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be
possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products
issued by your National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located more than 1000 miles east of the Windward
Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is forecast to interact with another tropical wave to
its east over the next several days, and some gradual development is
possible later this week while the overall system moves
west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two are issued
under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two are issued
under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
East of the Windward Islands:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two, located a few hundred miles east of the
southern Windward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is centered over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low has
increased overnight but remains disorganized. Some additional
development of this system is possible as it moves slowly westward
or west-southwestward and approaches the coast of Texas during the
next two days. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be
possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products
issued by your National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located more than 1000 miles east of the Windward
Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is forecast to interact with another tropical wave to
its east over the next several days, and some gradual development is
possible later this week while the overall system moves
west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two are issued
under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two are issued
under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
Reed Timmer has another update on the Gulf of Mexico
RT 31:05
Live update on the Tropics as PTC2 is forecast to graze the northern coastline of South America over the next few days before arrival near southern Nicaragua and northern coastline of Costa Rica this weekend
There is something onshore, over Affica that has their interest.
The spaghettis are showing it in the Atlantic in the 5-10day guess.
The spaghettis are showing it in the Atlantic in the 5-10day guess.
The system in the gulf shifted north.
Tx. and La. are getting wet along the coast.
Tx. and La. are getting wet along the coast.
packyderms_wife
Neither here nor there.
The system in the gulf shifted north.
Tx. and La. are getting wet along the coast.
I like this map, as much as I hate humidity I’m praying for rain!