WEATHER Tropical Disturbance in 5 day forecast.

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
_______________
Will keep this thread running.

Map auto-updates.



two_atl_5d0.png
 
Last edited:

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
_______________
Bumped to 40% in the 5 day forecast.



Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of disturbed weather is located over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea, associated with a surface trough of low pressure.
Some slow development is possible, and a tropical depression could
form by late this week if the system remains over water. The
disturbance is expected to move northwestward near the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras during that time. Regardless of
development, this system could produce periods of heavy rainfall
across portions of eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras late this
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Hogsett/Pasch
 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
It's wayth'hell out there.

10+ days before we'd see anything out of it...WAG.

Yes it is a ways out, however, these things have a tendency to have an affect/effect on the cold fronts that come down out of Canada days before they even come close to the states.
 

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
_______________
They think the thing in the gulf is worth a yellow X now. The one in the Atlantic made red.


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of this
week. This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over
the tropical Atlantic, approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday, and
move across the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and
Thursday. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from
southeastern Louisiana across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and
the Florida peninsula is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Slow development of this system could occur as it drifts westward
across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake/Bucci
 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqxVD8tCl8I


RT 8:38

TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT in GULF OF MEXICO... Atlantic Ocean is Becoming ACTIVE!

Invest 94L is an ongoing development in the Atlantic Ocean that may become a tropical storm by as early as next week. Also, a new area of development has been noted by the National Hurricane Center in the Gulf of Mexico! Here's everything that YOU need to know!
 

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
_______________
And then there were three.



Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located about 900 miles east-southeast of the
southern Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next couple of days before the system reaches the
Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while moving westward
across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
this afternoon. Interests in the Windward Islands and along the
northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this
system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for
portions of these areas later today. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands and the
northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Development
of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves
west-southwestward at about 10 mph toward the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico and approaches the coasts of southern Texas and northeastern
Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could become conducive for
gradual development later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward at around 15 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch
 

Jeff B.

Don’t let the Piss Ants get you down…
A tropical storm would go a long way towards restoring all our reservoirs and saturating the ground. Probably break this insane dome of high pressure.

The down side is that SE Texas has a bad habit of flooding badly when it gets more than a routine rain or low pressure area.

Jeff B.
 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piw4jEw01Fc


RT 51:11 - Reed Timmer

LIVE emergency update on the TROPICS GOING NUTS in the Atlantic

Live update on an incredibly active tropical Atlantic for disturbances that could grow into tropical cyclones. The energized ITCZ is something we normally see in August. Watching the cluster of storms in the northern Gulf of Mexico but also the strong tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles that could become a tropical depression tomorrow. This storm now looks like it will impact Nicaragua or Honduras in 5-7 days.
 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
IMG_4694.jpg

A friend posted this on facespy and said that this is the biggest dome of high pressure she's seen in 20 years over the atlantic.
 

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
_______________
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Windward Islands:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two, located a few hundred miles east of the
southern Windward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is centered over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low has
increased overnight but remains disorganized. Some additional
development of this system is possible as it moves slowly westward
or west-southwestward and approaches the coast of Texas during the
next two days. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be
possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products
issued by your National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located more than 1000 miles east of the Windward
Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is forecast to interact with another tropical wave to
its east over the next several days, and some gradual development is
possible later this week while the overall system moves
west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two are issued
under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two are issued
under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Forecaster D. Zelinsky
 

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
_______________
There is something onshore, over Affica that has their interest.

The spaghettis are showing it in the Atlantic in the 5-10day guess.

genprob.aeperts.2022062900.altg.120_240.png
 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
Tropical Storm Colin Local Statement Advisory Number 2
NCZ106-108-110-022330-

Tropical Storm Colin Local Statement Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Wilmington NC AL032022
1127 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022

This product covers southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina

**TROPICAL STORM COLIN PUSHING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- The Tropical Storm Warning has been cancelled for Coastal
Georgetown and Coastal Horry

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Brunswick,
Coastal New Hanover, and Coastal Pender

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 80 miles west-southwest of Wilmington NC or about 10
miles west of Myrtle Beach SC
- 33.7N 79.0W
- Storm Intensity 40 mph
- Movement Northeast or 40 degrees at 7 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

The center of Tropical Storm Colin is now pushing offshore of the
South Carolina Grand Strand region. Colin will continue to move to the
northeast through this afternoon and evening, hugging the North
Carolina coastline. The main impacts remain limited to the coast, and
include moderate to heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and strong rip
currents along local beaches.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Locally hazardous rainfall may bring limited impacts across southeast
North Carolina, particularly in areas close to the coast. Potential
impacts include:
- Localized flooding from rainfall may occur, especially in
low-lying and poor drainage areas. Some rivers and creeks may
rise as a result of the rain. Small streams, creeks, and
ditches may overflow in some locations.
- Several storm drains and retention ponds may become full and
begin to overflow. Some brief road closures are possible.

Elsewhere across southeast North Carolina and northeast South
Carolina, little to no impact is anticipated.

* WIND:
Hazardous wind may bring limited impacts across southeast North
Carolina, particularly in areas close to the coast. Potential impacts
include:
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes is possible. Unsecured lightweight objects may be
blown about.
- Some large limbs may break from trees. A few shallow rooted or
weak trees may snap or be knocked down. Some fences and roadway
signs damaged.
- A few roads may become impassable due to debris, particularly
within urban or heavily wooded locations. Hazardous driving
conditions are possible, especially for high profile vehicles
on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages are possible.

Elsewhere across southeast North Carolina and northeast South
Carolina, little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to
the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Wilmington NC around 2 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

IGB
Tropical Storm Colin Local Statement Advisory Number 2
NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205-022315-

Tropical Storm Colin Local Statement Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC AL032022
1107 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022

This product covers Eastern North Carolina

**Colin continues to move slowly northeastward**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Onslow, East
Carteret, Hatteras Island, Northern Outer Banks, Ocracoke
Island, and West Carteret

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 230 miles west-southwest of Buxton NC or about 150 miles
west-southwest of Morehead City NC
- 33.7N 79.0W
- Storm Intensity 40 mph
- Movement Northeast or 40 degrees at 7 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Colin will slowly lift northeast across the
Carolinas today through Sunday, bringing gusty winds mainly to coastal
areas, periods of heavy rain, and the threat for a few isolated
tornadoes.

Wind gusts to tropical storm force could lead to some downed trees and
isolated power outages. Tornadoes may result in areas of locally
enhanced damage. Heavy rain bands could bring a threat of localized
flooding, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas.

Dangerous marine conditions are expected for all offshore waters and
the Pamlico Sound, with strong winds and seas building to 6 to 8 feet
creating treacherous conditions for mariners. The threat for stronger
and more frequent rip currents will also exist along area beaches.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts
include:
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
closures.

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts include:
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
Dangerous Rip Currents associated with the wind and waves generated by Colin will
occur through the long holiday weekend. Please follow the advice of the local beach
patrols if going to the beach the next couple of days.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess
the risk from wind, falling trees, and flooding at your location. If
you decide to move, relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do
not relocate, help keep roadways open for those under evacuation
orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don`t drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Newport/Morehead City NC around 5 PM EDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$
Tropical Storm Colin Local Statement Advisory Number 1
NCZ106-108-110-SCZ054-056-022015-

Tropical Storm Colin Local Statement Advisory Number 1
National Weather Service Wilmington NC AL032022
811 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022

This product covers southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina

**TROPICAL STORM COLIN LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Brunswick,
Coastal Georgetown, Coastal Horry, Coastal New Hanover, and
Coastal Pender

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 120 miles southwest of Wilmington NC or about 50 miles
southwest of Myrtle Beach SC
- 33.2N 79.5W
- Storm Intensity 40 mph
- Movement Northeast or 45 degrees at 8 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Colin is located off the South Carolina coast. Colin
is forecasted to slide northeast along the South Carolina then North
Carolina coast today into this evening. The main impacts will be
moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds, especially near the coast.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across southeast North Carolina and northeast South
Carolina. Potential impacts include:
- Localized flooding from rainfall may occur, especially in
low-lying and poor drainage areas. Some rivers and creeks may
rise as a result of the rain. Small streams, creeks, and
ditches may overflow in some locations.
- Several storm drains and retention ponds may become full and
begin to overflow. Some brief road closures are possible.

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
areas close to the coast. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes is possible. Unsecured lightweight objects may be
blown about.
- Some large limbs may break from trees. A few shallow rooted or
weak trees may snap or be knocked down. Some fences and roadway
signs damaged.
- A few roads may become impassable due to debris, particularly
within urban or heavily wooded locations. Hazardous driving
conditions are possible, especially for high profile vehicles
on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages are possible.

Elsewhere across southeast North Carolina and northeast South
Carolina, little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to
the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Wilmington, NC around 11 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.
 
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