ALERT The Winds of War Blow in Korea and The Far East

[jward]

Yoon Suk-yeol backs ‘preemptive strike’ to stop North Korean hypersonic attacks

North Korea claims to have tested two hypersonic missiles since September, with Tuesday’s test a probable third
Jeongmin Kim January 11, 2022

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Image: Yoon Suk-yeol Presidential Campaign Team | Yoon at New Year press conference, Jan. 11, 2022

North Korean hypersonic missiles aimed at the South in the event of conflict should be taken out with a “preemptive strike,” presidential candidate Yoon Suk-yeol said Tuesday, hours after North Korea conducted its second missile test of the new year.

Yoon’s remarks were based on a hypothetical combat scenario following the DPRK’s alleged hypersonic missile test last week. Tuesday morning’s missile also reached hypersonic speeds of Mach 10 and demonstrated “advancement” over last week’s test, according to the ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff.

“Missiles that travel at speeds over Mach 5, if they are loaded with nuclear warheads, will reach the Seoul metropolitan area in less than a minute. Interception is practically impossible,” Yoon said, answering an NK News question about the latest missile tests at a press conference in Seoul.
“In that case, the only method to prevent them is conducting a preemptive strike when we detect signs [of a launch],” he said, referring to South Korea’s three-pronged defense strategy that includes “Kill Chain” preemptive strikes against North Korean missile system in the event of conflict.

“We have to clearly perceive the reality that North Korea is continuing to boost missile capabilities and critically threatening our security. Tactically preventing [such threats] is not easy at the moment, so we need to keep pressuring North Korea through diplomacy to make it stop developing nuclear capabilities,” Yoon added.

THE KILL CHAIN
After a Kill Chain preemptive attack fails, the next two phases of the “Three Pillars” system are to shoot down missiles before they reach their target (KAMD) and retaliate with military force (KMPR).
A top defense aide in the Yoon campaign team told NK News after the press conference that the Kill Chain strategy, along with the conservative presidential candidate’s comments, are “theoretical” as the DPRK has yet to clearly prove its hypersonic capabilities.

They added that it “stands to reason” to consider a preemptive strike if Seoul identifies signs of an imminent nuclear missile attack that cannot be intercepted and may endanger civilian lives.
Yang Uk, a missile expert at the Asan Institute, agreed with Yoon’s assessment that missiles are hard to shoot down at hypersonic speeds but warned that the Kill Chain concept should be interpreted carefully.
“It’s always the best method to hit first with the Kill Chain, but it’s not an automatic strategy of just preemptive strike; it means preemptive strikes are possible when South Korea perceives a clear, realistic threat and very distinct signs of an enemy attack.”

‘IRRESPONSIBLE’ AND ‘RISKY,’ PROGRESSIVES SAY
Yoon’s comments attracted criticism from his progressive opponent Lee Jae-myung’s campaign.
Democratic Party election committee spokesperson Choi Jieun said her team was “shocked” that Yoon would publicly endorse a preemptive strike against North Korea.
It was an “extremely inappropriate remark that could lead the Korean Peninsula into crisis, even if it was about hypothetical situations,” Choi said in a statement.

Lee’s camp held an “emergency” press conference later in the day, at which it accused Yoon of having only “fragmentary” knowledge on foreign affairs and risking inter-Korean security.

“Yoon’s remark … is immensely ignorant about our military’s North Korean nuclear weapons response,” said Kim Byung-joo, a lawmaker who handles defense issues for the progressive campaign.
“Talking about a preemptive strike could lead to misjudgment and fear from North Korea and evoke premature military action,” Kim said.
Edited by Arius Derr

Posted For Fair Use

Yoon Suk-yeol backs ‘preemptive strike’ to stop North Korean hypersonic attacks | NK News

North Korean hypersonic missiles aimed at the South in the event of conflict should be taken out with a “preemptive strike,” presidential candidate Yoon Suk-yeol said Tuesday, hours after North Korea conducted its second missile test of the new year. Yoon’s remarks were based on a hypothetical...

www.nknews.org

 

[jward]

Joshua H. Pollack
@Joshua_Pollack

It’s pretty remarkable to hear talk about conventional counterforce - that is, attacking nuclear weapons with conventional weapons.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1480890766583083009

View: https://twitter.com/Joshua_Pollack/status/1480890766583083009?s=20

 

[jward]

Peter Dutton
@peter_dutton
6h

This is a huge development in that it calls out China's practice and holds it up to the mirror of international treaty law and state practice. Looking forward to a very careful read.

US State Dept. today released Limits in the Seas #150 analyzing the PRC's maritime claims in the SCS with a State Practice Supplement to "evaluate the international law position of the PRC relating to territorial sea baselines and outlying archipelagos." https://state.gov/wp-content/upl


United States Department of State
Bureau of Oceans and International
Environmental and Scientific Affairs
Limits in the Seas
No. 150
People’s Republic of China:
Maritime Claims in the South China Sea

https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/LIS150-SCS.pdf

 

[jward]

Incoming North Korean Missile Warning Prompted FAA's Mysterious Air Traffic Halt
Tyler Rogoway

6-8 minutes



Two days after the Federal Aviation Administration issued a highly peculiar ground-stop order to aircraft operating across the western United States and Hawaii, and after the release of a remarkably murky official statement from the agency, we were no closer to understanding exactly what prompted the order than we were initially. While U.S. Strategic Command would not comment on the incident and NORAD denied it had any hand in it, information that has come to the attention of The War Zone from sources with knowledge of the events clearly paints a different picture—one that points directly to the North Korean hypersonic weapon test that occurred at nearly the exact same time as the culprit.

While it has been up for debate if the ground stop order was some sort of blatant mistake, hack, or misunderstanding on the FAA's part unrelated to the North Korean test of a hypersonic maneuvering reentry vehicle (MaRV) that occurred just before 2:30 PM PST on January 10th, 2022, that doesn't seem to be the case. We have heard multiple pilot reports and radio communications that mention a national security issue being the impetus for the ground stop, which included some airplanes in the air being told to land immediately. The FAA's official statement, which was released 20 hours after the order was issued, didn't help quench curiosity surrounding the incident, stating ambiguously:

As a matter of precaution, the FAA temporarily paused departures at some airports along the West Coast on Monday night. Full operations resumed in less than 15 minutes. The FAA regularly takes precautionary measures. We are reviewing the process around this ground stop as we do after all such events.

Now, The War Zone has become aware of messaging to air traffic control personnel at the time of the order that stated NORAD advised of a missile-launched aerial maneuvering vehicle from North Korea impacting airspace from the Aleutian Islands to Los Angeles. A ground stop was subsequently issued for air traffic control centers ZAN (Anchorage), ZSE (Seattle), ZOA (Oakland), and ZLA (Los Angeles) —and possibly others — no later than 2:32 PM PST. In fact, ZLA may have received the order a few minutes earlier.

Just 16 minutes later, NORAD advised that the ballistic missile's aerial maneuvering vehicle payload had splashed down in waters far to the east of Japan and that normal operation could proceed, effectively ending the ground stop. In reality, the vehicle actually splashed down in the waters to the west of Japan.

What's also of interest is that minutes before the initial ground stop order and the details surrounding it being communicated to some air traffic controllers, NORAD notified the FAA to have Los Angeles Air Traffic Control Center clear the airspace around the northern stretch of Vandenberg Space Force Base, which is located about 170 miles northwest of Los Angeles. We assume this was meant to ready the area for a potential launch of a Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) interceptor capable of knocking down ICBMs. While the vast majority of GMDs are based in Alaska, a handful are based at Vandenberg for limited operational contingency and test duties.

VFRMap.com


So, it seems clear that the FAA did indeed think — or at least had enough information to err on the side of caution — that a major threat was posed by the North Korean launch and acted to mitigate potential danger to aircraft and possibly to keep them from interfering with a possible intercept attempt. What we don't know is exactly what the intelligence they were given was and what processes were used to execute the actions that were put into play. NORAD saying it had no part in the ground stop could still be true if all it did was provide preliminary intelligence according to established procedures and the FAA interpreted it in their own way to order the unprecedented action.

The unfortunate aspect of all this is based on the information now at hand, it seems like the system worked as it should, not the opposite. There is very little time to make critical decisions when dealing with potentially inbound ballistic missile threats. The fast and flat trajectory of the North Korean MaRV test may have degraded the initial accuracy of the U.S. military's missile launch identification and flight characteristics classification capabilities, resulting in ambiguity or even outright inaccuracy when it came to predicting the missile's flight profile. If this was indeed the case, the FAA seems to have acted quickly on the intelligence it had.


While this assessment could change as more information comes to light, it doesn't necessarily paint the FAA in poor light, or the military, for that matter, who was likely doing the best it had with the information available. Major investments are being made in the U.S. military's ability to classify, track, and engage hypersonic weapons that should drastically improve early warning and the quality of rapid intelligence evaluations as to the danger a launched hypersonic vehicle poses.

North Korea State Media

Launch of North Korean MaRV.


Of course, the FAA could clear all this up easily by simply providing more information as to what happened and why. At the same time, there may be some resistance to doing so because it highlights just how serious of a threat North Korea's missile capabilities now pose to the U.S. homeland.
At the time of publishing, The War Zone still has not received a response from the FAA regarding our initial inquiry about this event. We have just talked with NORAD again and they are working to get more information that they can share with us.

Regardless, this whole ordeal gave us a unique glimpse into what would happen if the U.S. came under attack by some sort of long-range ballistic missile capability. It seems that the first indicator we may get that such an event was occurring would be the FAA ordering a ground stop to aircraft located over a broad area and the clearing of critical airspace so that interceptors can be safely employed.
Contact the author: Tyler@thedrive.com

 

[danielboon]

EndGameWW3 Retweeted







Devon Heinen

@DevonHeinen
·
8m

#BREAKING US State Dept issues readout of US Special Representative for the #DPRK #SungKim's conversations on January 11 with officials from #SouthKorea and #Japan re: #NorthKorea's recent test firings of ballistic missiles. #KimJongUn

 

[jward]

Chinese Researchers Develop Small but Powerful Space Laser; Expert Warns It Could Be Weaponized
Andrew Thornebrooke
​

A team of Chinese researchers claims to have developed a new laser system small enough to be deployed on a satellite. The device could inform the development of future weapons systems by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), according to one expert.
“This small but powerful laser is reportedly intended for communication,” said Paul Crespo, president of the Center for American Defense Studies. “It may not be best suited as a weapon, but a larger version certainly will be.”
The research team that created the laser said that it was not a weapon. An unnamed scientist from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, however, also said that a larger version could be weaponized, according to a report by the South China Morning Post, which first covered the development.

A New Development and a New Threat
The new laser could be used in a multitude of roles, both civilian and military, ranging from everyday communications to target acquisition.
One of the parties that conducted the research, in fact, was the Shanghai Radio Equipment Research Institute (SRERI), a state-owned contractor that supplies the CCP’s space program. Scientists from the company previously published research into space-based target detection and surveillance technologies.
The potential for weaponization could spell trouble down the road, as the laser packs a powerful punch for its size.
The system can generate a 1-megawatt laser and fire 100 times per second continuously for half an hour while in space. It and its power source combined weigh just over three pounds, an achievement in laser miniaturization.
For comparison, a foray into laser technologies by the United States in the mid-2000s resulted in the development of the YAL-1, an aircraft-mounted laser system designed to shoot down missiles. That system produced a 1-megawatt laser and weighed roughly four tons.

Whereas the Chinese laser emits lightning-quick but weak pulses of light, however, the American system shot one long beam, hence why the Chinese system cannot incapacitate larger weapons such as missiles.
While the new laser is too small to seriously damage weapons systems, it does present a meaningful miniaturization of solid-state laser technology. This is important as size and weight considerations have consistently barred the widespread adoption of laser weapons by militaries throughout the world.
The new system is also important because it could easily be upscaled to work as a weapon. Crespo, who previously served as an officer with the Defense Intelligence Agency, said that it would almost certainly be adopted by the Chinese military in the future.
“Everything the Chinese civilian sector does is dual-use,” Crespo said. “Of course [the laser] will be used in military applications.”

Dual-use refers to the capacity of a technology to fulfill both civilian and military uses. It is a core aspect of the CCP’s national strategy of military-civil fusion, which seeks to ensure that all developments in the civil sector also improve military technology.
To that end, laser systems are facing increasing scrutiny as a potential avenue for covert military development and have been targeted by U.S. sanctions against China. The U.S. Department of Commerce added several Chinese companies to its trade blacklist last year because of their role in driving “military modernization programs related to lasers.”
A key reason for this, according to Crespo, is that satellite-based lasers could give China an advantage in weaponizing outer space, which is increasingly viewed by defense and security experts as a warfighting domain.
It is for this reason that Crespo considers the CCP’s space program and associated technologies a threat.
“Space-based platforms could decide which superpower dominates space,” Crespo said. “And whoever dominates space could dominate earth.”

US Not Without Response
Despite an old military adage that lasers will always be a weapon of the future, the United States is not without response to the new Chinese technology.
The recently-passed National Defense Authorization Act authorized the research and development of new energy weapons for the purposes of missile defense, and several recently-developed military programs exist to provide the United States with directed energy weapons.
Lt. Gen. Neil Thurgood, who serves as director of hypersonics, directed energy, space, and rapid acquisition for the Army, spoke about the issue during a conversation hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Jan. 12.
He described U.S. efforts as “a campaign of learning and experimentation,” and said that developing such systems was important as a cost-effective alternative to kinetic systems that require a projectile to be launched. He also explained that creating multiple technologies to fill different battlefield roles was essential.

“A high energy laser is designed to see a target, kill a target, and move to the next target,” Thurgood said.
High power microwaves, on the other hand, are different and designed “to kill swarms of things.”
Among the new developments in U.S. energy weapons is a recently awarded $18.6 million contract for the creation of a compact directed energy system designed to counter drones. The system will augment other Army technologies such as the 30 and 50-kilowatt systems which are typically mounted on strike vehicles and deployed in strike groups with more conventionally armed counterparts to enable, in Thugood’s words, “killing in layers.”
Notably, the Army will test a 300-kilowatt laser later this year, believed to be capable of taking down missiles in flight.
Similarly, the Navy has deployed prototype laser systems on some vessels, designed to defend against drones and other small craft. One ship, the USS Portland, conducted a successful shooting of a target drone in 2020, and again in 2021.
Thurgood stressed that there was a need for the United States military to invest heavily and broadly in such technologies, to cover a wide array of potential fighting scenarios.

“There is no perfect weapons system that works everywhere, all the time, in every environment,” Thurgood said.
To that end, he described directed energy weapons as “another arrow in the quiver,” to be combined with more conventional weapons.
“Giving multiple ways for soldiers to be successful on the battlefield is really the heart of the issue,” Thurgood said.
Relatedly, the U.S. Navy announced the creation of a new division on Jan. 10 that will focus solely on developing new high-power microwave directed-energy weapons. The division follows the December opening of a new Directed Energy Systems Integration Laboratory in California.

“The near-peer and actual peer adversarial threats faced by the Navy today are so stressing that if we don’t have facilities like this, we are simply not going to be able to keep pace,” said Vance Brahosky, deputy technical director for the naval surface warfare center in a press release.
“The directed energy and high-power microwave technology testing that can now be done in this facility will allow us to evaluate and field warfighting capabilities so that the Sailors and Marines on our ships can fight and win.”

Chinese Researchers Develop Small but Powerful Space Laser; Expert Warns It Could Be Weaponized

www.theepochtimes.com

 

[jward]

North Korea fires unidentified projectile, warns of strong action over US sanctions push

North Korea defended its missile tests as its legitimate right to self-defence. PHOTO: REUTERS

Updated

12 Mins Ago




SEOUL (AFP, REUTERS, BLOOMBERG) - North Korea has fired an unidentified projectile, South Korean and Japanese officials said on Friday (Jan 14), the nuclear-armed country’s third suspected weapons test in just over a week.

“North Korea fires unidentified projectile eastward,” Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said, without giving further details.
And Japan’s coastguard said it had detected “the launch from North Korea of what appears to be a ballistic missile or missiles at 14h55”.

A coastguard spokesman told AFP it was still analysing where it fell and whether it was one object or multiple.
Despite international sanctions over its nuclear weapons programme, Pyongyang has already carried out two tests of what it said were hypersonic missiles this year, on Jan 5 and Jan 11.

After the second test, which was personally supervised by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, the United States imposed sanctions on five people linked to the country’s ballistic weapons programme.


The move prompted accusations from a foreign ministry spokesman in Pyongyang that the US was “intentionally escalating” the situation.

North Korea fires two missiles, warns of strong action over US sanctions

It comes after the Biden administration imposed its first sanctions over Pyongyang's weapons programmes. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

 

[danielboon]

Carla Babb

@CarlaBabbVOA
·
3h

#BREAKING US confirms ballistic missile launch by #NorthKorea

 

[danielboon]

Sharon K. Gilbert

@sharonkgilbert
·
3h

North Korea fires two missiles, warns of strong action over US sanctions push

 

[danielboon]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1482000550803607553

View: https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1482000550803607553?cxt=HHwWgsCoucTpj5EpAAAA

 

[danielboon]

 

[jward]

NK NEWS
@nknewsorg
44m

North Korean .kp websites all appeared down again on Saturday morning, starting after 7:30 am KST. The same occurred on Friday after crucial servers went offline for hours in what may have been the result of a distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attack.
https://twitter.com/nknewsorg/status/1482127760198094848?s=20

 

[mecoastie]

NK NEWS
@nknewsorg
44m

North Korean .kp websites all appeared down again on Saturday morning, starting after 7:30 am KST. The same occurred on Friday after crucial servers went offline for hours in what may have been the result of a distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attack.
https://twitter.com/nknewsorg/status/1482127760198094848?s=20

All 50 of them?

 

[jward]

9DASHLINE
@9DashLine
·

9DASHLINE invited several leading experts to consider why Russia appears to fly under the radar in the Indo-Pacific and consider its role in the region's security in the months ahead https://bit.ly/3I66J4O| Key insights from
@NKuhrt
@josephbvarner
@vtchakarova
& Thomas Bruce

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1481975472254763015

View: https://twitter.com/9DashLine/status/1481975472254763015?s=20

 

[jward]

Duan Dang
@duandang
29m

Aircraft carriers in the South China Sea.

 

[jward]


@IcanArgue
46m

North Korea confirms that the Friday Missile Launches were Short Range Ballistic Missiles, and launches were Conducted From Railway-Based Systems. In September North Korea tested the system for the first time. #NorthKorea

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1482206215195303937

View: https://twitter.com/IcanArgue/status/1482206215195303937?s=20

 

[jward]

N.Korea tests railway-borne missile in latest launch amid rising tension with U.S.
By Hyonhee Shin

• 
  
• 
  
• 
  

4 minute read

A North Korean flag flutters at the North Korean embassy in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia March 19, 2021. REUTERS/Lim Huey Teng/File Photo
Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com
SEOUL, Jan 15 (Reuters) - North Korea tested a railway-borne missile in its firing drills on Friday, state media KCNA said on Saturday, amid a U.S. push for fresh sanctions against the isolated state following its recent series of weapons tests.

South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) travelled about 430 km (267 miles) to a maximum altitude of 36 km (22 miles) after being launched eastward on the northwest coast of North Korea.


The official KCNA news agency did not specify the missiles' range, or trajectory, but said a firing drill was held in North Pyongan Province to "check and judge the proficiency in the action procedures of the railway-borne regiment."

The country tested the rail-based system for the first time last September, saying it was designed as a potential counter-strike to any threatening forces.

Since New Year's Day, North Korea has launched three ballistic missiles in an unusually fast sequence of weapons tests. The previous two launches involved what state media called "hypersonic missiles" capable of high speeds and manoeuvring after launch.


Hours before the latest test drill, North Korea slammed the United States for pursuing new sanctions in response to its recent missile launches, calling it a "provocation" and warning of a strong reaction. read more

U.S. President Joe Biden's administration imposed its first sanctions against Pyongyang on Wednesday, and called on the U.N. Security Council to blacklist several North Korean individuals and entities.


North Korea has defended the missile tests as its sovereign right to self-defence and accused the United States of intentionally escalating the situation with new sanctions.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un did not attend the drill. KCNA said the military leadership had ordered the test "at short notice" and the system precisely struck the target set in the east coast with "two tactical guided missiles."

The system "demonstrated high manoeuvrability and rate of hits," KCNA said, adding its success led to discussions to "set up proper railway-borne missile operating system across the country."

North Korea has been steadily developing its weapons systems, raising the stakes for stalled talks aimed at dismantling its nuclear and ballistic missile arsenals in return for U.S. sanctions relief.

South Korean Chung Eui-yong and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken condemned the latest launch during their phone call on Saturday and coordinated responses to the North's recent missile tests, the State Department said.

Both sides highlighted the importance of maintaining firm combined readiness posture and urged Pyongyang to return to a negotiating table, Seoul's foreign ministry said.

'AT SHORT NOTICE'

Cheong Seong-chang, director for North Korean studies at South Korea's Sejong Institute, said the test could be an "instant display of force" to protest against the U.S. sanctions push, noting that it was not planned in advance and unusually took place in the afternoon.

"It's a message that they would take an 'eye to eye' approach if Washington presses for sanctions for testing non-long-range missiles," Cheong said.

KCNA released photographs showing a missile trailing a column of smoke and flame as it was launched from the top of an olive-green train in a mountainous area, before arrowing down on a small island, sending up a cloud of smoke and debris as it hit.

Despite North Korea's limited and sometimes unreliable rail network, rail mobile missiles are a relatively cheap and efficient option to improve the survivability of their nuclear forces, making it difficult for enemies to detect and destroy them before being fired, analysts said. read more

Kim Dong-yup, a former South Korea Navy officer who teaches at Seoul's Kyungnam University, said North Korea appears to have fired KN-23 SRBMs, which were also test fired in September, when they flew 800 km (497 miles).

First tested in May 2019, the KN-23 resembles Russia's Iskander-M SRBM visually, and is designed to evade missile defences and conduct a precision strikes, experts said.

North Korea tests railway-borne missile in latest launch amid rising tension with U.S.

North Korea tested a railway-borne missile in its firing drills on Friday, state media KCNA said on Saturday, amid a U.S. push for fresh sanctions against the isolated state following its recent series of weapons tests.

www.reuters.com

North Korea fires unidentified projectile, warns of strong action over US sanctions push

North Korea defended its missile tests as its legitimate right to self-defence. PHOTO: REUTERS

Updated

12 Mins Ago




SEOUL (AFP, REUTERS, BLOOMBERG) - North Korea has fired an unidentified projectile, South Korean and Japanese officials said on Friday (Jan 14), the nuclear-armed country’s third suspected weapons test in just over a week.

“North Korea fires unidentified projectile eastward,” Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said, without giving further details.
And Japan’s coastguard said it had detected “the launch from North Korea of what appears to be a ballistic missile or missiles at 14h55”.

A coastguard spokesman told AFP it was still analysing where it fell and whether it was one object or multiple.
Despite international sanctions over its nuclear weapons programme, Pyongyang has already carried out two tests of what it said were hypersonic missiles this year, on Jan 5 and Jan 11.

After the second test, which was personally supervised by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, the United States imposed sanctions on five people linked to the country’s ballistic weapons programme.


The move prompted accusations from a foreign ministry spokesman in Pyongyang that the US was “intentionally escalating” the situation.

North Korea fires two missiles, warns of strong action over US sanctions

It comes after the Biden administration imposed its first sanctions over Pyongyang's weapons programmes. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

 

[jward]

Enough. What did that ole sea o' Japan ever do to them :: sad eyes ::


BNO News
@BNONews
5m

BREAKING: North Korea launches suspected ballistic missile towards the Sea of Japan

 

[danielboon]

EndGameWW3 Retweeted








William Gallo

@GalloVOA
·
12m

Japan's coast guard says the North Korean missile has fallen back to earth. No indication yet of range, location, etc.

 

[jward]

N.Korea fires suspected ballistic missile in 4th test this month
January 16, 20226:55 PM CST
Last Updated 20 minutes ago
​

FILE PHOTO - A North Korean flag flies on a mast at the Permanent Mission of North Korea in Geneva October 2, 2014. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File Picture

SEOUL, Jan 17 (Reuters) - North Korea fired on Monday what could be a ballistic missile, Japan's government said, in what would be the fourth test this month as Pyongyang forges ahead with new military developments amid stalled stalks with the United States and South Korea.
South Korea's military also reported that the North had fired an "unidentified projectile" toward the ocean off its east coast.
In less than two weeks, nuclear-armed North Korea has conducted three other missile tests, an unusual frequency of launches. Two of those involved single "hypersonic missiles" capable of high speeds and manoeuvring after launch, while the last, on Friday, involved a pair of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) fired from train cars.

It was not immediately known what kind of missile was involved in Monday's reported launch.
The launches have drawn both condemnation and an appeal for dialogue from a U.S. administration that has imposed new sanctions over previous North Korean missile launches and is pushing for more.
U.S. President Joe Biden's administration imposed its first new sanctions on Pyongyang on Wednesday, and called on the U.N. Security Council to blacklist several North Korean individuals and entities. It also repeated calls for dialogue, urging Pyongyang to return to talks aimed at reducing tensions and persuading it to surrender its arsenal of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.

North Korea has defended the missile tests as its sovereign right to self-defence and accused the United States of intentionally escalating the situation with new sanctions.
In a statement ahead of Friday's missile tests, the North Korean foreign ministry said that while Washington might talk of diplomacy and dialogue, its actions showed it was still engrossed in its policy for "isolating and stifling" North Korea.
The launches came as North Korea, more isolated than ever under self-imposed border closings aimed at preventing a COVID-19 pandemic, appeared to be preparing to open at least some trade across its land border with China.
Chinese brokers said they expect the resumption of regular trade with North Korea as soon as Monday, after a North Korean train pulled into a Chinese border town on Sunday in the first such crossing since anti-coronavirus border lockdowns began in 2020. read more

North Korea fires two ballistic missiles from Pyongyang airport, South Korea says

North Korea fired two suspected short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) on Monday from an airport in its capital city of Pyongyang, South Korea's military reported, the fourth test this month to demonstrate its expanding missile arsenal.

www.reuters.com

Enough. What did that ole sea o' Japan ever do to them :: sad eyes ::


BNO News
@BNONews
5m

BREAKING: North Korea launches suspected ballistic missile towards the Sea of Japan

 

[jward]

hmm... :: shrugs ::





Chad O'Carroll
@chadocl

North Korean missile testing is getting closer and closer to the commencement of the Beijing Winter Olympics. If tensions between the US and DPRK rise in the lead up to the Olympics and the North Koreans keep up testing momentum, could lead to an interesting situation.
I would imagine that China would not welcome North Korea testing on its doorstep on the eve of Beijing kicking off the Olympics… So I’m a bit puzzled why Pyongyang is doing this right now, considering China is its biggest strategic supporter.
If this keeps up, we should not exclude the possibility that DPRK may be upset at China about something… choosing to go ahead with planned missile tests in time to coincide with the Olympics. Just my speculation for now but interesting to see where this goes.

 

[jward]

Sterling Simms
@SterlingSimms1
16m

It matters because they fired it from Pyongyang. Usually they do it in some northern province. KJU clearly wanted people to see it. I think he has some serious internal pressures on him right now. He’s launching these missiles to prove to his generals that he’s still in charge.

 

[jward]

AFP News Agency
@AFP
1h

#BREAKING China's President Xi warns global confrontation could have 'catastrophic consequences' in all-virtual Davos forum speech
Chinese President Xi Jinping warned on Monday that confrontation between major powers could have "catastrophic consequences" in a speech to world leaders at an all-virtual #Davos forum http://u.afp.com/wGBh #DavosAgenda

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1483043791883931648

View: https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1483043791883931648?s=20

 

[northern watch]

 

[northern watch]

 

[jward]

Open Nuclear Network
@OpenNuclear

According to Rodong Sinmun photo, the missiles launched on 17 January were KN-24s, whose official designation was revealed as “Hwasong-11Na” (화성포-11나) during the 2021 weapon exhibition in Pyongyang. “나” is the second letter in the Korean alphabet.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1483189881757122570

View: https://twitter.com/OpenNuclear/status/1483189881757122570?s=20

It is the first HS-11Na launch since 21 March 2020. State media claimed that the 21 March 2020 test was the final demonstration before the delivery of the weapon system to the military. March 2020 test

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1483192236363984900

View: https://twitter.com/OpenNuclear/status/1483192236363984900?s=20

Though its designation was already revealed during the 2021 weapon exhibition, the missile is still being referred to as "tactical guided missile" in official text this time. For more info regarding the 2021 exhibition, see: https://oneearthfuture.org/research-analy

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1483195429063999497

View: https://twitter.com/OpenNuclear/status/1483195429063999497?s=20

"The test-fire was aimed to selectively evaluate tactical guided missiles being produced and deployed and to verify the accuracy of the weapon system..." this is consistent with the claim (final test fire before delivery) made during the March 2020 test

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1483198058456403977

View: https://twitter.com/OpenNuclear/status/1483198058456403977?s=20

 

[jward]

EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
19m

North Korea ‘using Russian satellite navigation system for missile tests’ https://scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3163727/north-korea-using-russian-satellite-navigation-system-instead?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=share_widget&utm_campaign=3163727
via @scmpnews

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1483240887090094083

View: https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1483240887090094083?s=20



Bentong
@BenLuck9
11m

Replying to
@EndGameWW3
and
@SCMPNews
Most Garmin receivers track both GLONASS and GPS. So if my hiking GPS uses the Russian network. Not surprising that North Korea does.

 

[northern watch]

 

[jward]

Ankit Panda
@nktpnd
15m

We're just two days from the Biden administration concluding its first year in office without so much as nominating an ambassador to South Korea. This has not gone over well in Seoul.

 

[jward]

Set an extra place at the table, another party guest has arrived

Global: MilitaryInfo
@Global_Mil_Info

North Korea has denounced the current U.S. hostile policy against Pyongyang and is moving forward with preparations for a long-term confrontation.

3:20 PM · Jan 19, 2022·Twitter for Android

 

[jward]

Assume the two events are related. . .



First Squawk
@FirstSquawk
2h

CHINESE MILITARY: DEMANDS US IMMEDIATELY STOPS SUCH 'PROVOCATIVE ACTIONS' OR IT WILL BEAR SERIOUS CONSEQUENCES OF UNFORESEEN EVENTS


U.S. Indo-Pacific Command
@INDOPACOM

@US7thFleet conducts #FONOP in the #SouthChinaSea: "USS Benfold (DDG 65) asserted navigational rights and freedoms in the vicinity of the Paracel Islands, consistent with international law." More https://go.usa.gov/xtKhC
@USPacificFleet

 

[jward]

Global: MilitaryInfo
@Global_Mil_Info
3h

South Korea is escalating its surveillance on North Korea. South Korea's National Security Council is also making preparations for the possibility of the resumption of nuclear & long-range missile tests from North Korea.

 

[1-12020]

Thinking outside the box.
North Korea and a deal with Russia/China.

Is their any possibility that Russia/China could have a deal with North Korea?
What if China and Russia got NK to do something real crazy and just before Russian and China pushed the go button.

 

[Housecarl]

Posted for fair use.....

All eyes on Biden’s response to N. Korea’s ICBM, nuclear weapons comments

North Korea’s announcement that it would review doing away with its moratorium on nuclear and ICBM tests fell on the one-year anniversary of Biden’s inauguration

english.hani.co.kr

All eyes on Biden’s response to N. Korea’s ICBM, nuclear weapons comments


Posted on : Jan.21,2022 16:49 KST Modified on : Jan.21,2022 16:49 KST

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North Korea’s announcement that it would review doing away with its moratorium on nuclear and ICBM tests fell on the one-year anniversary of Biden’s inauguration

North Korea has thrown down the gauntlet to US President Joe Biden by announcing it will consider resuming tests of nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles, which it suspended back in 2018. This represents a serious challenge for the US’ policy on North Korea since Biden has claimed a commitment to dialogue without having initiated meaningful talks with the North.



Pyongyang announced Thursday that it’s considering lifting the moratorium on nuclear and ICBM tests it has maintained since 2018 in remarks directly aimed at the US. The announcement came in reports in state-run media such as the Korean Central News Agency.



The Politburo of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea made clear Wednesday that the decision came in response to what they called the Biden administration’s “policy of hostility” toward Pyongyang.



“The hostile policy and military threat by the US have reached a danger line that cannot be overlooked anymore,” the Politburo reportedly said in a decision that was deliberately scheduled to coincide with the first anniversary of Biden’s inauguration.



Depending on how both sides handle the situation going forward, this announcement could set the Korean Peninsula back on the path to the “fire and fury” era of 2017. If North Korea ends its moratorium on nuclear tests and ICBM test launches, the US will have no choice but to respond accordingly.



However, it seems unlikely that this announcement is enough to prompt the US to drastically ratchet up its response. After all, Pyongyang hasn’t actually resumed testing nuclear weapons and ICBMs, but only said it will “review” the idea. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s remark that North Korea is “trying to get attention” with its recent missile launches reinforces predictions that the US isn’t about to push the panic button.



Furthermore, with US foreign policy currently focused on Ukraine and Russia, there’s little room for a sudden shift to either full-on confrontation or complete concessions in its relations with North Korea.



In fact, Biden didn’t mention North Korea during a press conference Wednesday, on the first anniversary of his inauguration, nor did reporters ask any questions about it. Aside from concerns over a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, the news conference focused on domestic issues such as inflation, the COVID-19 pandemic, social spending and climate change legislation.



That’s why it’s reasonable to expect that the US will stick to a prudent stance of calling for dialogue while condemning actions by the North that escalate tensions.



The problem is that North Korea is likely to ramp up its behavior under the pretext of its five-year plan for developing defense science and weapons systems, which it announced last January. That plan includes super-large nuclear warheads, hypersonic missiles and solid-fuel ICBMs.



“The greater North Korea’s weapons capabilities, the greater its leverage in dialogue with the US. North Korea will crank up its testing offensive with ICBMs or tactical nuclear weapons following the Beijing Olympics in February and the South Korean presidential election in March,” said Sue Mi Terry, head of Korean history and public policy at the Wilson Center, an American think tank, in an interview with the Hankyoreh.



Such behavior would cross a “red line” that would be hard for the US to ignore, forcing it to contemplate suitable countermeasures. To interrupt that vicious cycle, South Korean President Moon Jae-in is left with no choice but to focus on communicating with the US and coordinating policy in his final weeks in office.



By Hwang Joon-bum, Washington correspondent

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

 

[jward]

Why North Korea won’t act on its threat to launch long-range missiles — yet
Pyongyang hopes to pressure the US to make concessions, but without angering its ally China
Andrei Lankov January 21, 2022

SHARE
Image: KCTV, Jan. 18, 2022 | North Korea tests a "tactical-guided missile" on Jan. 17
In the first weeks of 2022, the North Koreans have rung in the new year with an impressive fireworks display.
First, the DPRK flight-tested brand new ballistic missiles with hypersonic glider warheads, and then in quick succession launched a multitude of other ballistic missiles. To drive home their message even further, the North Korean Politburo stated on Jan. 19 that its patience is running thin and hinted that it might reconsider the country’s moratorium on nuclear tests and long-range missile launches, in place since late 2017.
Some of the recent tests largely reflected pragmatic demands: The engineers need to know how their inventions actually work. But on balance, the entire show, complete with the moratorium withdrawal threat, clearly works toward political ends.
Through the threat, the DPRK hopes to pressure the U.S. to make concessions on issues like sanctions relief, though for now it’s unlikely to actually test any intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). But at some point, North Korea is certain to end its moratorium and show off its ICBM capabilities to further its goal of discouraging U.S. intervention in a potential conflict.
North Korea will likely spend the next several years further advancing its nuclear and missile programs. The international community can slow or even temporarily suspend this process through diplomatic compromise, but it seems there is little enthusiasm for such compromise in Washington right now.

A train-launched ballistic missile prepares to launch on Jan. 14 | Image: KCTV, Jan 15, 2022
BALLISTIC BLUFFING
I would not take the new hints about resuming nuclear and ICBM tests too seriously. It is actually the third time that North Korean leaders have threatened to withdraw from the moratorium, which the country introduced in Dec. 2017 and finalized in April 2018.
The North last made such threats in Jan. 2020, when Kim Jong Un was more straightforward and explicitly threatened to end the moratorium. However, these statements proved to be empty threats.
There are three reasons why this is likely to be the case again.
The first reason is, of course, concerns about China. North Korea is not known for being obedient to its sponsors, but now China is, for all practical purposes, the sole trade partner of North Korea and likely to remain so for at least the next few years. More importantly, China is the only country that is both willing and able to provide North Korea with enough aid to keep it afloat when it faces the dual challenge of COVID-19 and U.N. sanctions.
China is doing this not because of some ideological solidarity, but due to geopolitical considerations. Caught in a prolonged confrontation with Washington, Beijing needs a stable North Korea as a buffer zone more than ever. This means that China is likely to turn a blind eye to the DPRK’s nuclear and missile program.
But Beijing’s patience has limits. If the North Koreans resume nuclear tests and ICBM launches, it will provide a good justification for the U.S to increase its military presence in the region. China doesn’t want more aircraft carriers cruising Pacific waters near its coast, so it would like North Korea to stick to the moratorium — and perhaps has ways to ensure Pyongyang takes its preferences seriously.
Second, North Korea itself has reasons to be quiet and keep a low profile for the time being. As long as the U.S. doesn’t pay much attention, North Korean engineers will have more time to work on new weapons systems. Additionally, due to the pandemic, Pyongyang is not in a position to risk another round of confrontation with Washington.
Third, South Korea’s presidential elections are scheduled for March. While currently a tight race, viewers would view the spectacular end of the moratorium as a debacle of the ruling Democrats, further increasing the chance that the right will return to power. This is not what North Korea wants, as it cannot expect much from a conservative administration.
Thus, North Korea wants to raise tensions to push the U.S. to negotiate and make some concessions. But in the current situation it has limited tools to achieve this, like short-range hypersonic glider warheads tests and menacing talk about testing an ICBM (without actually launching one). Unfortunately for Pyongyang this necessarily measured approach is unable to deliver the desired result of the U.S. delegation discussing the sanctions relief.

Stamps commemorating North Korea’s past leaders and family, May 22, 2009 | Image: NK News (file)

NUCLEAR BLACKMAIL
The Biden administration now has reasons to ignore low-intensity signals from Pyongyang. The White House is preoccupied with a large number of problems, domestic and foreign, and would prefer not to deal with another uneasy challenge. It does not help that the approval rating of the administration continues to fall.
As long as North Korea keeps a relatively low profile, it’s unlikely to avoid the notice of decision-makers. While nuclear tests and ICBM launches could get Washington to talk concessions, these aren’t going to happen in the near future, no matter what Kim Jong Un said at the recent Politburo meeting.

But sooner or later, the situation will change. The election and pandemic will be over, the position of China will be less important or something else will change Pyongyang’s calculations. Then North Korea will throw caution to the wind and finally demonstrate those ICBM and nuclear capabilities that it is now quietly reinforcing.
But here we have to face another question. Do North Korean leaders need these capabilities, so expensive to acquire, merely to squeeze more concessions from the U.S.? In the short run, ICBM tests are, to an extent, negotiation chips to be swapped for getting political concessions like sanctions relief. However, in the long run, the development of ICBM technology serves a bold strategic dream that Pyongyang leaders entertain.
North Korea’s initial goal was to create a nuclear deterrent, just to make sure that their country would under no circumstances go the way of Iraq or Libya. A small number of nuclear devices and short-range delivery systems would suffice to solve this problem, and indeed the DPRK solved it in the early 2010s.

Now, however, North Korea works toward developing and deploying weapons systems capable of hitting the continental U.S. While America’s anti-missile defenses still constitute a major obstacle, North Korean engineers are working hard to find ways to penetrate these defenses and will eventually succeed.
North Korean strategists can hope that this capability will enable them to blackmail the U.S. into remaining aloof from a possible conflict on the Korean Peninsula — in other words, into abandoning South Korea. Then the DPRK will use its nuclear superiority to defeat the South, or more likely to coerce it into partial or complete submission.
The goal is to finish the unfinished business of June 1950, when the North invaded in hopes of reunifying the peninsula by force. Of course, this remains a dream, but it’s a lot less improbable than it sounded just a decade ago.
Edited by Bryan Betts

Posted for fair use

Why North Korea won’t act on its threat to launch long-range missiles — yet | NK News

In the first weeks of 2022, the North Koreans have rung in the new year with an impressive fireworks display. First, the DPRK flight-tested brand new ballistic missiles with hypersonic glider warheads, and then in quick succession launched a multitude of other ballistic missiles. To drive home...

www.nknews.org

 

[jward]

Jason Brodsky
@JasonMBrodsky

South Korea said it paid $18 million of #Iran’s dues to the UN with won funds frozen due to U.S. sanctions. This happened before, but comes after the #Houthis launched a drone & missile attack in the UAE while the South Korean president was visiting. 1/2
Also comes after #Iran was alone at the UN in objecting to a Holocaust denial resolution. What a sad and disappointing statement from Seoul, the U.S., and the UN. 2/2

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1485070207680974849

View: https://twitter.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1485070207680974849?s=20

 

[jward]

Rep. Michael McCaul predicts Chinese invasion of Taiwan after Winter Olympics

January 21, 2022 5:14pm

Rep. Michael McCaul called out President Biden for his messaging on the ongoing Ukraine situation. Getty Images / Anna Moneymaker

The ranking Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee suggested Friday that China will launch an invasion of Taiwan sometime after next month’s Winter Olympics in Beijing.
“I do think after the Olympics — China has gotten so provocative, so aggressive in the South China Sea, that you are going to see the CCP, the [Chinese] Communist Party invading Taiwan,” Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) told reporters on a conference call.

McCaul argued further that President Biden’s botched messaging on the ongoing Ukraine crisis sent a signal of weakness to America’s adversaries, which McCaul believes they will look to exploit.
“I would say [Jimmy] Carter’s the worst president in my life,” McCaul said. “But this guy really takes the cake, and I’ve never seen, in one year, our standing on the world stage diminish so rapidly and quickly to the detriment of our national security.”
McCaul’s predicted move by China would not be without precedent. In 2014, Russia began moving regular troops and special forces into Crimea on the final weekend of that year’s Winter Games, which it hosted in the Black Sea resort of Sochi. It completed the annexation of the Ukrainian region weeks later.
Rep. Michael McCaul expressed that the US needs to “arm Taiwan with more weapons,” as he predicts a potential Chinese invasion. Associated Press / Lenin Nolly

Biden has been heavily criticized for suggesting during his White House news conference Wednesday that the Western response to a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be less severe if it was a “minor incursion.” That statement alarmed Ukrainians who fear the American president inadvertently revealed he would turn a blind eye to military action.
The White House repeatedly attempted to walk back Biden’s remarks, culminating in the president saying Thursday that “if any, any assembled Russian units move across the Ukrainian border, that is an invasion. It will be met with [a] severe and coordinated economic response.”
But critics like McCaul argue that the damage has already been done.


“My prediction is that you’re going to see a Russia invading Ukraine in the next month,” he said, adding that “[Chinese President] Xi is watching what happens in Ukraine, they also watched what happened with Afghanistan, and don’t think for a minute that didn’t have an impact on their calculus.

“Putin’s always wanted the Ukraine back, he wants the Soviet empire to reclaim the throne,” McCaul added. “Xi wants Imperial China and Taiwan is a part of that. So they see this, because of the weakness, as an opportunity to do this.”
McCaul called on the American military to ramp up its presence in the region “to show China we’re serious.”
“We need to arm Taiwan with more weapons, and I signed off on a lot of those sales, and I think also we need to establish better economic, trade relationships in the region to counter the Belt and Road Initiative that China, unfortunately, has been so successful at,” he said.

Earlier this week, the guided missile destroyer USS Benfold made its way through two disputed island chains in the South China Sea on a so-called freedom-of-navigation patrol, prompting a protest from Beijing.
“We solemnly demand that the US side immediately stop such provocative actions, otherwise it will bear the serious consequences of unforeseen events,” read a statement from China’s Southern Theatre Command on Thursday.

The USS Benfold sparked outrage from Beijing after it made its way through two disputed island chains in the South China Sea.Getty Images / US Navy

In response, the Navy asserted that the Benfold’s mission was conducted “in accordance with international law” and “reflects our commitment to uphold freedom of navigation and lawful uses of the sea as a principle.”
“The United States is defending every nation’s right to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows, as USS Benfold did this week,” a statement read. “Nothing PRC [People’s Republic of China] says otherwise will deter us.”

posted for fair use

Rep. Michael McCaul predicts Chinese invasion of Taiwan after Winter Olympics

The ranking Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee suggested Friday that China will launch an invasion of Taiwan sometime after next month’s Winter Olympics in Beijing.

nypost.com

 

[jward]

Demetri
@Dimi

SCOOP #ChineseNavy has a permanent presence in the western Pacific between Taiwan and #Japan's Nansei islands with 1 or 2 warships always sailing in the area. Sign that starting to increase focus on #Taiwan's east coast.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1485411849126432769

View: https://twitter.com/Dimi/status/1485411849126432769?s=20

 

[jward]

Demetri
@Dimi
2h

SCOOP #ChineseNavy has a permanent presence in the western Pacific between Taiwan and #Japan's Nansei islands with 1 or 2 warships always sailing in the area. Sign that starting to increase focus on #Taiwan's east coast.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1485411849126432769

View: https://twitter.com/Dimi/status/1485411849126432769?s=20

 

[northern watch]

China sends 39 warplanes toward Taiwan, largest in new year
China has flown 39 warplanes toward Taiwan in its largest such sortie of the new year, continuing a pattern that the island has answered by scrambling its own military jets in response
By HUIZHONG WU Associated Press
24 January 2022, 00:58

The Associated Press
FILE - Main China pilots prepare to fly a J-16 fighter jet at a training base for China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) naval aviation force in Ningbo in eastern China's Zhejiang Province, Thursday, Jan. 14, 2021. China flew 39 warplanes, including 24 J-16s and 10 J-10s, toward Taiwan, Sunday, Jan. 24, 2022, in its largest such sortie of the new year, continuing a pattern that the island has answered by scrambling its own jets in response. (Chinatopix via AP, File)

TAIPEI, Taiwan -- China flew 39 warplanes toward Taiwan in its largest such sortie of the new year, continuing a pattern that the island has answered by scrambling its own jets in response.

The formation Sunday night included 24 J-16 fighter jets and 10 J-10 jets, among other support aircraft and electronic warfare aircraft, according to Taiwan's defense ministry.

Taiwan's air force scrambled its own jets and tracked the People's Liberation Army planes on its air defense radar systems, the defense ministry said.

Chinese pilots have been flying towards Taiwan on a near-daily basis in the past year and a half, since Taiwan's government started publishing the data regularly. The largest sortie was 56 warplanes on a single day last October.

The activity has generally been in the air space southwest of Taiwan and falls into what Taiwan's military calls the air defense identification zone, or air space it monitors out of national security considerations.

Taiwan and China split during a civil war in 1949, but China claims the island as its own territory. As a result, Beijing opposes any action that would identify Taiwan as a sovereign state and has used diplomatic and military means to isolate and intimidate Taiwan.

Tensions have been high since Taiwanese citizens elected Tsai Ing-wen as president in 2016, to which Beijing responded by cutting off previously established communications with the island's government. Tsai's predecessor was friendly to China and had endorsed Beijing's claim that the two are part of a single Chinese nation.

China sends 39 warplanes toward Taiwan, largest in new year - ABC News (go.com)