Ordinary Girl
Veteran Member
Things are certainly ticking up
ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread
- Thread starter danielboon
- Start date
Tristan
TB Fanatic
jward
passin' thru
EMICT
Veteran Member
These Phuckers are elitist crazy. Almost time for selective elimination to save all us useless eaters.
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
13m
Update: German media Bild: NATO must be ready to use nuclear weapons - German air force commander NATO must be prepared to use nuclear weapons if Russia launches a first strike. Such a statement by the commander of the German Air Force Ingo Gerhartz leads Bild on June 20.
raven
TB Fanatic
raven
TB Fanatic
It would be very easy to interpret that statement as "NATO must launch the first strike"
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
13m
Update: German media Bild: NATO must be ready to use nuclear weapons - German air force commander NATO must be prepared to use nuclear weapons if Russia launches a first strike. Such a statement by the commander of the German Air Force Ingo Gerhartz leads Bild on June 20.
Because retaliation after a Russian first strike would be moot.
jward
passin' thru
Mark Hertling
@MarkHertling
Retired soldier. Loves family, dedicated to nation. Studies leadership, nat’l security & healthcare. Commissioner,@usabmc . Cards/Blues fan.
Floridamarkhertling.com
Joined December 2015
190 Following
380.3K Followers
In the coming days, Americans may here about Lithuania's blockade of the RU enclave of Kalinigrad.
Few Americans know about this Russian enclave WEST of several NATO nations. I introduced the importance of its strategic importance to @CNN in December.
A 1/10
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
The Russian Federation is threatening War with Lithuania due to the Country's recent halt in Food and other Resource Shipments by Rail/Road to the Enclave of Kaliningrad, the Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov has stated that the Russian Military is preparing "Retaliatory Measures".
View: https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1538935281314938884?s=20&t=UUItXA6XKI62f8mIL-P_mw
K-grad (as it's called by @USArmyEURAF ) is a Baltic port sandwiched between Lithuania & Poland. It was once known as Königsberg.
Founded in 1255 by Teutonic Knights during the Crusades it was eventually named Königsberg for King Ottokar II of Bohemia. 2/
Königsberg was Polish, then Prussian, then the largest easternmost city of Germany throughout World War II.
The city was bombed by RU from 1944 through the Battle of Königsberg.
It was captured by the Soviet Union on 9 April 1945, right before war's end.
Look familiar? 3/
Later, as the Allies met at Potsdam & divided responsibility for Europe after the Nazi surrender, the city was occupied by the Soviets & renamed for Soviet revolutionary Mikhail Kalinin. It was made RU's westernmost Oblast.
The Soviets desperately wanted this Baltic port. 4/
During Soviet days, RU had a "land bridge" through an area called the Suwalki Gap.
And the RU Baltic Sea ports were open.
There was never a problem getting to K-Grad.
But when Poland, the 3 Baltic countries & others gained independence in the 90's, things changed. 5/
RU conducted focused covert & overt activities in the area starting in the early 2000's
Informational, cyber and electronic attacks by RU significantly increased.
The cyber attacks against Estonia in 2007 were particularly "robust." 6/
https://ccdcoe.org/uploads/2018/10/Ottis2008_AnalysisOf2007FromTheInformationWarfarePerspective.pdf
Then in 2014, when RU annexed Crimea & invaded the Donbas, RU upped their activities in the area.
Poland, the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, and NATO became increasingly concerned.
This article by Matt Cesare provides some insight. 7/
Russian Encroachment in the Baltics: The Role of Russian Media and Military - Foreign Policy Research Institute Sowing discontent and disruption is a tactic that the West has accustomed itself to when dealing with the Kremlin. The Baltic states are in a unique position in the face of these threats. Estonia and … Russian Encroachment in the Baltics: The Role of Russian Media and Military - Foreign Policy Research Institute
Many (me included) believed RU would eventually attempt a "land grab" of the Suwalki Gap, using the excuse of physically connecting their ally Belarus with K-grad.
That would require them invading Polish & Lithuanian sovereign territory.
Which brings us back to LI's blockade.8/
Saturday, RU called the blockade "unprecedented" & "unlawful."
LI's FM Landsbergis responded that LI was implementing approved EU sanctions & they were taken after “consultation w/ the EU Commission."
Thanks, Lithuania, for these actions! 9/
A final thought...
In Jan 1991 as an Army major fighting in Desert Storm I wasn't watching events in Europe.
But in traveling to Vilnius, Riga & Tallinn in 2006 & again in 2011-12, I met those who had fought for their freedom.
They get it. Watch. 10/10
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mIw-BwaaVk
• • •
@MarkHertling
Retired soldier. Loves family, dedicated to nation. Studies leadership, nat’l security & healthcare. Commissioner,@usabmc . Cards/Blues fan.
Floridamarkhertling.com
Joined December 2015
190 Following
380.3K Followers
In the coming days, Americans may here about Lithuania's blockade of the RU enclave of Kalinigrad.
Few Americans know about this Russian enclave WEST of several NATO nations. I introduced the importance of its strategic importance to @CNN in December.
A 1/10
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
The Russian Federation is threatening War with Lithuania due to the Country's recent halt in Food and other Resource Shipments by Rail/Road to the Enclave of Kaliningrad, the Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov has stated that the Russian Military is preparing "Retaliatory Measures".
View: https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1538935281314938884?s=20&t=UUItXA6XKI62f8mIL-P_mw
K-grad (as it's called by @USArmyEURAF ) is a Baltic port sandwiched between Lithuania & Poland. It was once known as Königsberg.
Founded in 1255 by Teutonic Knights during the Crusades it was eventually named Königsberg for King Ottokar II of Bohemia. 2/
Königsberg was Polish, then Prussian, then the largest easternmost city of Germany throughout World War II.
The city was bombed by RU from 1944 through the Battle of Königsberg.
It was captured by the Soviet Union on 9 April 1945, right before war's end.
Look familiar? 3/
Later, as the Allies met at Potsdam & divided responsibility for Europe after the Nazi surrender, the city was occupied by the Soviets & renamed for Soviet revolutionary Mikhail Kalinin. It was made RU's westernmost Oblast.
The Soviets desperately wanted this Baltic port. 4/
During Soviet days, RU had a "land bridge" through an area called the Suwalki Gap.
And the RU Baltic Sea ports were open.
There was never a problem getting to K-Grad.
But when Poland, the 3 Baltic countries & others gained independence in the 90's, things changed. 5/
RU conducted focused covert & overt activities in the area starting in the early 2000's
Informational, cyber and electronic attacks by RU significantly increased.
The cyber attacks against Estonia in 2007 were particularly "robust." 6/
https://ccdcoe.org/uploads/2018/10/Ottis2008_AnalysisOf2007FromTheInformationWarfarePerspective.pdf
Then in 2014, when RU annexed Crimea & invaded the Donbas, RU upped their activities in the area.
Poland, the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, and NATO became increasingly concerned.
This article by Matt Cesare provides some insight. 7/
Russian Encroachment in the Baltics: The Role of Russian Media and Military - Foreign Policy Research Institute Sowing discontent and disruption is a tactic that the West has accustomed itself to when dealing with the Kremlin. The Baltic states are in a unique position in the face of these threats. Estonia and … Russian Encroachment in the Baltics: The Role of Russian Media and Military - Foreign Policy Research Institute
Many (me included) believed RU would eventually attempt a "land grab" of the Suwalki Gap, using the excuse of physically connecting their ally Belarus with K-grad.
That would require them invading Polish & Lithuanian sovereign territory.
Which brings us back to LI's blockade.8/
Saturday, RU called the blockade "unprecedented" & "unlawful."
LI's FM Landsbergis responded that LI was implementing approved EU sanctions & they were taken after “consultation w/ the EU Commission."
Thanks, Lithuania, for these actions! 9/
A final thought...
In Jan 1991 as an Army major fighting in Desert Storm I wasn't watching events in Europe.
But in traveling to Vilnius, Riga & Tallinn in 2006 & again in 2011-12, I met those who had fought for their freedom.
They get it. Watch. 10/10
• • •
jward
passin' thru
Samuel Ramani
@SamRamani2
Russia has reportedly ordered its forces to reach the Luhansk borders by Sunday This massive mobilization of Russian troops is aimed at breaking the Ukrainian army's resistance in Severodonetsk
12:47 PM · Jun 20, 2022·Twitter Web App
jward
passin' thru
Hans de Vreij
@hdevreij
· 8h
Kremlin: 'Lithuania's decision to restrict transit to the Kaliningrad region is unprecedented and illegal. Within a few days, the Russian authorities will conduct a serious analysis and, based on its results, choose retaliatory measures' spokesman Dmitry Peskov. (TASS)
~~~~~~~~~
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
6m
Level 2:
Lithuania has volunteered to be a target and bring NATO into this war if something happens to them. Small country, huge balls.
The U.S. has over 500 troops in Lithuania.
@hdevreij
· 8h
Kremlin: 'Lithuania's decision to restrict transit to the Kaliningrad region is unprecedented and illegal. Within a few days, the Russian authorities will conduct a serious analysis and, based on its results, choose retaliatory measures' spokesman Dmitry Peskov. (TASS)
~~~~~~~~~
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
6m
Level 2:
Lithuania has volunteered to be a target and bring NATO into this war if something happens to them. Small country, huge balls.
The U.S. has over 500 troops in Lithuania.
CaryC
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Came over to see if this article had been posted, so thanks for that.ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zerowww.zerohedge.com
Russia Demands Lithuania Lift "Openly Hostile" Blockade; Panic Buying Ensues
by Tyler Durden
Monday, Jun 20, 2022 - 10:01 AM
Update (1100ET): The Russian Foreign Ministry has responded to Lithuania's partial blockade of Kaliningrad, writing in a statement that they consider the "provocative measures" to be "openly hostile" and warning that the Kremlin may take action to "protect its national interests."
Kaliningrad is sandwiched between the EU and NATO members Poland and Lithuania. Supplies from Russia are delivered via rail and gas pipelines through Lithuania - which announced last week that it was banning the rail transit of goods subject to EU sanctions, which include coal, advanced technology, metals and construction materials.
"If in the near future cargo transit between the Kaliningrad region and the rest of the territory of the Russian Federation through Lithuania is not restored in full, then Russia reserves the right to take actions to protect its national interests," the statement reads.
They have demanded that Lithuania immediately lift the ban on a number of goods to the Kaliningrad region.
Earlier Monday, the Kremlin called Lithuania's announcement "unprecedented" and "in violation of everything there is."
"The situation is more than serious and it requires a very deep analysis before formulating any measures and decisions," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov in a statement to the press.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said they were simply complying with sanctions imposed by the EU, and that they were taken after "consultation with the European Commission and under its guidelines."
"Sanctioned goods (will) no longer be allowed to transit Lithuanian territory," he added.
Kaliningrad governor Anton Alikhanov says that the ban, which was confirmed on Friday, affects roughly 50% of all imports. He urged citizens not to panic-buy...
...to no avail.
* * *
Quite possibly the biggest Russia-West provocation of the entire four-month long war in Ukraine has occurred this weekend, but few in the media establishment seem to be taking notice of the singular event which has the potential to quickly spiral toward a WW3 scenario.
Baltic EU/NATO member Lithuania has implemented a ban on all rail transit goods going to Russia's far-western exclave of Kaliningrad, after transport authorities initially announced the provocative measure on Friday. "The EU sanctions list notably includes coal, metals, construction materials and advanced technology, and Alikhanov said the ban would cover around 50% of the items that Kaliningrad imports," Reuters wrote.
This has given way to fears of panic buying breaking out in Kaliningrad Oblast, which is Russian sovereign territory on the Baltic Sea, but which is sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland, and is thus reliant on overland shipping for passage via its EU neighbors.
Anton Alikhanov, the governor of the Russian oblast which has a total population of some one million people (with Kaliningrad city including almost 450,000 - and 800,000 total if outlying suburbs are counted) is urging calm:
Russian officials and media have long warned against what they dubbed Western aims to "blockade" Kaliningrad. Crucially, the EU enforcement measure being implemented from Vilnius marks a complete break in a three decade long treaty that's been in effect...
Ahead of the new Lithuanian transit ban taking effect, the state railways service was reportedly awaiting final word from the European Commission on enforcing it:
Brussels then ruled that "sanctioned goods and cargo should still be prohibited even if they travel from one part of Russia to another but through EU territory," according to Rueters/Rferl.
In Moscow's eyes, this is tantamount to laying economic siege to part of Russia's sovereign territory and one million of its citizens. When the EU first proposed the blockage of goods as part of the last major sanctions package in early April, Kremlin officials warned of war given Moscow would have to "break the blockade" for the sake if its citizens.
According to an April 6th statement in Russia's TASS by a state Duma official:
Kaliningrad's governor Alikhanov has already called on Russian federal authorities to prepare tit-for-tat measures against Lithuania in wake of the transit ban.
"These steps are illegal and may entail far-reaching implications for Lithuania and the European Union. In particular, I would like to quote a few paragraphs from the Joint Statement on EU Enlargement, with references to international agreements, the documents which both the European community and the Russian Federation acceded to," Alikhanov said Saturday.
Additionally he cited a key condition that was part of Lithuania’s 2004 accession to the EU. He quoted the prior agreement saying that the Baltic state "will apply in practice the principle of freedom of transit of goods, including energy, between the Kaliningrad Region and the rest of Russian territory."
"In particular, we confirm that there shall be freedom of such transit, and that the goods in such transit shall not be subject to unnecessary delays or restrictions and shall be exempt from customs duties and transit duties or other charges related to transit," Alikhanov quoted the Joint Statement further as saying
IMHO this is a much bigger dot, than all the threats put together.
Kaliningrad is a Russian Protectorate, and for Russia to NOT PROTECT IT, and do overwatch on its people for food and security, would make Putin look like Biden in Afghanistan.
That's not going to happen. Kaliningrad is a really big deal to Russia and is very symbolic, with the victory over East Prussia, during the War, and establishment of Russia over the government. There is a lot history concerning that place between Prussia, and Russia.
However I do not think Lithuania will be a glass parking lot tomorrow. But do think at least initially that there will be some serious negotiating, with eyebrows knitted together over it. Russia ain't playing.
155 arty
Veteran Member
I've seen it before
Ordinary Girl
Veteran Member
Just negotiating? That’s the thing I keep going back to. The Russians talk about these red lines and retaliating and escalating but then they don’t do anything. It’s strange.
CaryC
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Russia's negotiating may be more in like ya know, you got 'till the count of 3. Type of negotiating.
jward
passin' thru
Guy Elster
@guyelster
#BREAKING Kremlin says captured American fighters are not subjected to Geneva convention
1:31 PM · Jun 20, 2022·Twitter for Android
Ordinary Girl
Veteran Member
Lol point taken. We shall see.
Ordinary Girl
Veteran Member
If they sentence them to death (didn’t they do that to some Brits?) I will be surprised.
Don't be. It's not a lead-pipe cinch but it's highly likely.
Ordinary Girl
Veteran Member
That would start a real war wouldn’t it? I don’t think the bumbling fool usurper can handle that
danielboon
TB Fanatic
You she is a hostage
FreedomoftheHills
Contributing Member
No, it would not.
Lots of other things - like the blockading of Kaliningrad and the Poles threatening to impose a no fly zone - have the potential to start a "real war," but the capture/potential execution of US soldiers of fortune does not. One takes one's life into one's own hands, signing up for such missions. It has always been so.
Issuing a sentence doesn't automatically mean it'll be carried out posthaste. As I'd pointed out re: the British mercs' death sentence (in probably the same tribunal in DPR where these mercs will be tried), they'd been sentenced to death - which is the typical sentence awarded to captured mercenaries - but nothing has been done but a flurry of diplomatic exchanges between the UK and Russia.
Basically, the worth of their "trading stock" has been increased by their sentencing, and that will undoubtedly be referenced by the Russians, who surely already know what will be the objective of their negotiations before they even begin.
The Pretender-in-Chief is a complete bumbling fool as you say. Things could get real hairy if those sentences were carried out. Or not. Who knows?
Presently, though, the focus at this point has to be on the fools in Lithuania who've broken the treaty with Russia regarding safe transport between Russia (via Belarus) and Kaliningrad, based on the "opinion" from Brussels regarding Russian sanctions. I suspect the bumbling fool usurper's people promised something shiny and flashy to the nutballs in Vilnius; this could blow up the whole thing right in front of our eyes. Others on this board have long ago noted the flashpoint potential of this travel corridor.
ETA: There's an official name for this travel corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad which I'd forgotten but I'm certain we'll hear of it often in the coming days: the Suwalki Gap.
Last edited:
Well done on your reply while I was composing mine! Great minds and all that .....
I've wondered the same thing a time or two. I would think he feels pretty justified with what's now happening.
WTSR
Veteran Member
Ukraine says 6 Russian missile carrier warships are lined up in the Black Sea — preparing to obliterate Ukraine
The Russian strike fleet has lined up for a massive strike, the Russian Federation is preparing an attack "on decision-making centers in Kyiv" in response to a strike on gas drilling rigs, - Arestovich
Zelensky's spokesman said the Black Sea Fleet had lined up along Crimea's western coast for a massive missile strike.
He urged residents of Pechersk and other central districts of Kiev not to neglect the alarms today and in the coming days.
That means then that neither are the "Wagner Group" or Russian "volunteers" from Syria, Libya, Chechnya or other "Stans" are then covered. Idiots.
Posted for fair use.....
‘Finish these b**tards’: Russia’s sick execution plan revealed
A Russian politician has delivered a staggering rant on live TV about exactly what Putin’s men plan to do with British fighters caught in Ukraine.
Rohan Smith@ro_smith
2 min read
June 20, 2022 - 11:26AM
Foreign fighters who crossed into Ukraine to join the war against Russia are facing a sickening execution at the hands of separatist authorities who want to send a message to their families.
British citizens Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner, as well as Moroccan man Brahim Saadun, were sentenced to death by a pro-Moscow court in the Donetsk People’s Republic earlier this month after surrendering in the besieged port city of Mariupol in April.
The court, which is not recognised internationally, sentenced the trio for acting as mercenaries and attempting to overthrow the government.
The ruling sparked outrage abroad where the European Court of Human Rights urged Russia to prevent the execution from going ahead.
British fighters Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner, alongside Moroccan fighter Brahim Saadun, have been sentenced to death by a pro-Russian court in Ukraine. Picture: Reuters
But in a rant on Russian state TV, Nationalist MP Aleksey Zhuravlyov called the three men “b**tards” and promised that they would be executed “with a British weapon and a British bullet”.
“I like the way the DPR is performing their international obligations,” he said.
“As I was told, the shooting will be performed with a British weapon and a British bullet.
“And then this bullet will be sent to the British relatives who will be made to pay for it in roubles.”
He went on: “We need just to finish these b**tards off.
“Without any negotiations. No need even to mock them. I saw what they are doing with my own eyes, personally. So I have no mercy for them.
“All those b**tards who came here from Britain must be eliminated. Do you want them to be liquidated with your British weapon? They will be eliminated with a British weapon.
“So when the West send mercenaries here, they must understand clearly, where they go.”
View: https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1522213701813608448?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1522213701813608448%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.news.com.au%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Ffinish-these-btards-russias-sick-execution-plan-revealed%2Fnews-story%2F75d00ce667df23cceae4015b3646aa05
The European Court of Human Rights told Russia on Thursday that they “should ensure that the death penalty imposed on the [foreign mercenaries] was not carried out”.
Its emergency ruling was provided on an exceptional basis because the applicants would otherwise “face a real risk of irreversible harm,” the court emphasised.
On Friday, Russia said that close to 2000 foreign mercenaries have been killed in Ukraine since the start of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion.
Russia’s defence ministry said in a statement that 6956 “mercenaries and weapons specialists” from 64 countries had arrived in Ukraine since the start of the conflict and that “1956 have already been destroyed”.
Another 1779 have left Ukraine, the statement said.
It said that Poland was the “absolute leader” among European countries for the number of fighters that were sent to Ukraine, followed by Romania and Britain.
It also singled out “mercenaries” from Canada, the US and Georgia.
British soldier Aiden Aslin has been sentenced to death in Ukraine. Picture: Twitter
The ministry said the number of foreign fighters is decreasing and many are leaving Ukraine “against the backdrop of the growing number of military failures of the Kyiv regime and massive daily losses in manpower and equipment”.
Pictures of the three men sentenced to death by the pro-Russian court show them with their heads shaved behind white bars.
The grandmother of Mr Aslin told the BBC she is not giving up hope after the sentence was handed down.
Pamela Hall acknowledged that the situation was “heartbreaking”.
“Time is running out,” she said.
More Coverage
‘In Europe’: Army chief’s WWIII warningProof of Australia’s support for Ukraine
“I have to have optimism. I believe it will be sorted in due course, and that there will be peace in Ukraine.”
– with AFP
Ordinary Girl
Veteran Member
Tit for tat..
Ukraine says 6 Russian missile carrier warships are lined up in the Black Sea — preparing to obliterate Ukraine
The Russian strike fleet has lined up for a massive strike, the Russian Federation is preparing an attack "on decision-making centers in Kyiv" in response to a strike on gas drilling rigs, - Arestovich
Zelensky's spokesman said the Black Sea Fleet had lined up along Crimea's western coast for a massive missile strike.
He urged residents of Pechersk and other central districts of Kiev not to neglect the alarms today and in the coming days.
Bingo. You want to interrupt the conversations of people who follow this for a living, mention the Suwalki Gap.
Grumphau
Veteran Member
Dead is dead, but a British gun and bullet is way better than a jihadi decapitation.That means then that neither are the "Wagner Group" or Russian "volunteers" from Syria, Libya, Chechnya or other "Stans" are then covered. Idiots.
Posted for fair use.....
‘Finish these b**tards’: Russia’s sick execution plan revealed
A Russian politician has delivered a staggering rant on live TV about exactly what Putin’s men plan to do with British fighters caught in Ukraine.
@ro_smith
2 min read
June 20, 2022 - 11:26AM
Foreign fighters who crossed into Ukraine to join the war against Russia are facing a sickening execution at the hands of separatist authorities who want to send a message to their families.
British citizens Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner, as well as Moroccan man Brahim Saadun, were sentenced to death by a pro-Moscow court in the Donetsk People’s Republic earlier this month after surrendering in the besieged port city of Mariupol in April.
The court, which is not recognised internationally, sentenced the trio for acting as mercenaries and attempting to overthrow the government.
The ruling sparked outrage abroad where the European Court of Human Rights urged Russia to prevent the execution from going ahead.
British fighters Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner, alongside Moroccan fighter Brahim Saadun, have been sentenced to death by a pro-Russian court in Ukraine. Picture: Reuters
But in a rant on Russian state TV, Nationalist MP Aleksey Zhuravlyov called the three men “b**tards” and promised that they would be executed “with a British weapon and a British bullet”.
“I like the way the DPR is performing their international obligations,” he said.
“As I was told, the shooting will be performed with a British weapon and a British bullet.
“And then this bullet will be sent to the British relatives who will be made to pay for it in roubles.”
He went on: “We need just to finish these b**tards off.
“Without any negotiations. No need even to mock them. I saw what they are doing with my own eyes, personally. So I have no mercy for them.
“All those b**tards who came here from Britain must be eliminated. Do you want them to be liquidated with your British weapon? They will be eliminated with a British weapon.
“So when the West send mercenaries here, they must understand clearly, where they go.”
View: https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1522213701813608448?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1522213701813608448%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.news.com.au%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Ffinish-these-btards-russias-sick-execution-plan-revealed%2Fnews-story%2F75d00ce667df23cceae4015b3646aa05
The European Court of Human Rights told Russia on Thursday that they “should ensure that the death penalty imposed on the [foreign mercenaries] was not carried out”.
Its emergency ruling was provided on an exceptional basis because the applicants would otherwise “face a real risk of irreversible harm,” the court emphasised.
On Friday, Russia said that close to 2000 foreign mercenaries have been killed in Ukraine since the start of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion.
Russia’s defence ministry said in a statement that 6956 “mercenaries and weapons specialists” from 64 countries had arrived in Ukraine since the start of the conflict and that “1956 have already been destroyed”.
Another 1779 have left Ukraine, the statement said.
It said that Poland was the “absolute leader” among European countries for the number of fighters that were sent to Ukraine, followed by Romania and Britain.
It also singled out “mercenaries” from Canada, the US and Georgia.
British soldier Aiden Aslin has been sentenced to death in Ukraine. Picture: Twitter
The ministry said the number of foreign fighters is decreasing and many are leaving Ukraine “against the backdrop of the growing number of military failures of the Kyiv regime and massive daily losses in manpower and equipment”.
Pictures of the three men sentenced to death by the pro-Russian court show them with their heads shaved behind white bars.
The grandmother of Mr Aslin told the BBC she is not giving up hope after the sentence was handed down.
Pamela Hall acknowledged that the situation was “heartbreaking”.
“Time is running out,” she said.
More Coverage
‘In Europe’: Army chief’s WWIII warningProof of Australia’s support for Ukraine
“I have to have optimism. I believe it will be sorted in due course, and that there will be peace in Ukraine.”
– with AFP
This has bigger connotations than "just" a couple of Western "volunteers" being put against a wall.
Last edited:
jward
passin' thru
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
Contrary to reports by some Ukrainian and Russian Sources that the Russian Black Sea’s Fleet had left Sevastopol enroute towards the Coastal City of Odessa, there has been No Actual Evidence so far to suggest such a Naval Operation is underway or imminent.
3:47 PM · Jun 20, 2022·Twitter for iPhone
jward
passin' thru
Someone just named it the most dangerous place on earth at the moment :: shrug ::
jward
passin' thru
Posted for fair use.....
www.understandingwar.org
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JUNE 20
Jun 20, 2022 - Press ISW
Download the PDF
Ukrainian officials are emphasizing that the coming week will be decisive for Russian efforts to take control of Severodonetsk.[1] Deputy Ukrainian Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Russian leadership has set June 26 as the deadline for Russian forces to reach the Luhansk Oblast administrative border, which will likely result in intensified efforts to take full control of Severodonetsk and move westward towards the Oblast border.[2] Head of the Luhansk Regional State Administration Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces control all of Severodonetsk except for the industrial zone as of June 20, which is the first explicit Ukrainian confirmation that Russian forces control all of Severodonetsk with the exception of the Azot plant.[3] Russian forces will likely continue efforts to clear the Azot plant and complete encirclement operations south of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk by driving up the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway.
Russian authorities likely seek to leverage the consequences of Russia’s blockade on Ukrainian grain exports in order to cajole the West into weakening its sanctions. Head of state-owned propaganda outlet RT Margarita Simonyan stated on June 20 that the famine caused by Russia’s blockade on grain exports will force the rest of the world to lift sanctions in order to curb further effects of global famine.[4] Simonyan’s statement is especially salient considering a report by the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office that Ukraine had generated 12% of global wheat and barley exports and that Russia’s blockade has trapped over 20 million tons of grain in storage.[5]
The UK Ministry of Defense claimed on June 20 that consistent failures of the Russian air force have significantly contributed to Russia’s limited success in Ukraine.[6] The UK MoD emphasized that the Russian air force has continually underperformed and been largely risk-averse, failing to establish air superiority or give Russian forces a decisive advantage in Ukraine. The report additionally claimed that training procedures for air force personnel are scripted and designed to impress senior officials but do not adequately prepare personnel for the challenges of active air combat.
Key Takeaways
We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Ukrainian sources confirmed that Russian forces control all of Severodonetsk except for the Azot chemical plant, where fights are ongoing on June 20. Head of the Luhansk Oblast Administration Serhiy Haidai stated that Ukrainian troops “only control the Azot plant” and that Russian troops are fighting within the industrial zone.[7] Haidai additionally confirmed that Russian forces took control of the southeastern suburb of Metolkine, but claimed that the remaining Ukrainian forces in Severodonetsk are still not completely encircled.[8] Deputy Ukrainian Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that the coming week will be decisive for Russian forces to complete the capture of Severodonetsk and that Russian leadership has set June 26 as the deadline for Russian forces to reach the Luhansk Oblast administrative borders.[9] Russian forces are accumulating equipment around Toshkivka, which is still highly-contested territory, and are drawing equipment into Starobilsk (approximately 40km northeast of Severodonetsk in Russian-occupied Luhansk Oblast) to support operations in Severodonetsk from the east.[10] Russian forces will likely continue to funnel troops and equipment into Severodonetsk to complete the capture of the industrial zone in the coming week.
Russian forces focused on maintaining positions to the southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman but did not make any confirmed advances towards Slovyansk on June 20.[11] Russian forces reportedly conducted an unsuccessful assault on Bohorodychne, about 20 kilometers northwest of Slovyansk.[12] Russian Telegram channel “Military chronicle” notably claimed that Ukrainian positions around Slovyansk are highly fortified and on “dominant heights,” which likely is an attempt to set information conditions to justify slow, grinding, and largely unsuccessful Russian advances towards Slovyansk.[13] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops around Lyman are conducting continual airstrikes and attempting to prevent Ukrainian forces from regrouping in this area.[14] Russian forces remain unlikely to advance on Slovyansk as they concentrate resources on completing the capture of Severodonetsk and the rest of Luhansk Oblast.
Russian forces continued efforts to interdict Ukrainian lines of communication east of Bakhmut along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway but did not make any confirmed advances on June 20.[15] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian sabotage groups near Bakhmut conducted an unsuccessful assault on Mykolaivka, which is a settlement directly along the T1302 highway.[16] Chechen troops additionally continued efforts to take control of Zolote to further support efforts to interdict Ukrainian lines of communication along the T1302.[17] Ukrainian officials have stated that the coming week will be decisive for the Russian offensive on Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, and Russian troops will likely further intensify artillery attacks east of Bakhmut along the T1302 in order to set conditions for an offensive northward to support the encirclement of Ukrainian troops in Severodonetsk-Lysychansk from the south.[18]
Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Withdraw forces to the north and defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum)
Russian forces north of Kharkiv City continued to focus on preventing further Ukrainian advances towards the international border on June 20.[19] Deputy Ukrainian Defense Minister Hanna Malyar claimed that Ukrainian troops have nearly reached the Russian border in Kharkiv Oblast and that Ukrainian forces still have some territory to liberate north of Kharkiv City.[20] While ISW cannot independently confirm the positions of Ukrainian troops near the Russian border, Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in this area will likely continue to pressure Russian troops to fight for control of occupied frontiers and intensify artillery attacks against Ukrainian positions around Kharkiv City.[21] Russian forces additionally conducted artillery attacks and unsuccessful reconnaissance-in-force southeast of Kharkiv City, likely in response to Ukrainian counteroffensive actions southeast of Kharkiv City heading towards the Izyum area.[22]
Continued......
Institute for the Study of War
Ukrainian officials are emphasizing that the coming week will be decisive for Russian efforts to take control of Severodonetsk. Deputy Ukrainian Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Russian leadership has set June 26 as the deadline for Russian
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JUNE 20
Jun 20, 2022 - Press ISW
Download the PDFKarolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan
June 20, 5:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.June 20, 5:30 pm ET
Ukrainian officials are emphasizing that the coming week will be decisive for Russian efforts to take control of Severodonetsk.[1] Deputy Ukrainian Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Russian leadership has set June 26 as the deadline for Russian forces to reach the Luhansk Oblast administrative border, which will likely result in intensified efforts to take full control of Severodonetsk and move westward towards the Oblast border.[2] Head of the Luhansk Regional State Administration Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces control all of Severodonetsk except for the industrial zone as of June 20, which is the first explicit Ukrainian confirmation that Russian forces control all of Severodonetsk with the exception of the Azot plant.[3] Russian forces will likely continue efforts to clear the Azot plant and complete encirclement operations south of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk by driving up the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway.
Russian authorities likely seek to leverage the consequences of Russia’s blockade on Ukrainian grain exports in order to cajole the West into weakening its sanctions. Head of state-owned propaganda outlet RT Margarita Simonyan stated on June 20 that the famine caused by Russia’s blockade on grain exports will force the rest of the world to lift sanctions in order to curb further effects of global famine.[4] Simonyan’s statement is especially salient considering a report by the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office that Ukraine had generated 12% of global wheat and barley exports and that Russia’s blockade has trapped over 20 million tons of grain in storage.[5]
The UK Ministry of Defense claimed on June 20 that consistent failures of the Russian air force have significantly contributed to Russia’s limited success in Ukraine.[6] The UK MoD emphasized that the Russian air force has continually underperformed and been largely risk-averse, failing to establish air superiority or give Russian forces a decisive advantage in Ukraine. The report additionally claimed that training procedures for air force personnel are scripted and designed to impress senior officials but do not adequately prepare personnel for the challenges of active air combat.
Key Takeaways
- Ukrainian sources stated that the coming week will be decisive for Russian forces to complete the capture of Severodonetsk and that Russian forces will focus troops and equipment on the area.
- Ukrainian sources confirmed that Russian forces control all of Severodonetsk with the exception of the Azot industrial zone, where fights are ongoing.
- Russian sources are likely setting information conditions to justify slow and unsuccessful advances towards Slovyansk from the southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman.
- Russian forces are likely intensifying operations to interdict Ukrainian lines of communication along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway in order to support escalating operations in Severodonetsk-Lysychansk.
- Russian forces continued to focus on resisting further Ukrainian advances north of Kharkiv City towards the international border.
- Russian forces are continuing defensive operations along the Southern Axis.
- Ukrainian partisan activity is continuing to complicate efforts by Russian occupation authorities to consolidate control of occupied areas.
We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
- Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and three supporting efforts);
- Subordinate Main Effort—Encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
- Supporting Effort 1—Kharkiv City;
- Supporting Effort 2—Southern Axis;
- Activities in Russian-occupied Areas
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Ukrainian sources confirmed that Russian forces control all of Severodonetsk except for the Azot chemical plant, where fights are ongoing on June 20. Head of the Luhansk Oblast Administration Serhiy Haidai stated that Ukrainian troops “only control the Azot plant” and that Russian troops are fighting within the industrial zone.[7] Haidai additionally confirmed that Russian forces took control of the southeastern suburb of Metolkine, but claimed that the remaining Ukrainian forces in Severodonetsk are still not completely encircled.[8] Deputy Ukrainian Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that the coming week will be decisive for Russian forces to complete the capture of Severodonetsk and that Russian leadership has set June 26 as the deadline for Russian forces to reach the Luhansk Oblast administrative borders.[9] Russian forces are accumulating equipment around Toshkivka, which is still highly-contested territory, and are drawing equipment into Starobilsk (approximately 40km northeast of Severodonetsk in Russian-occupied Luhansk Oblast) to support operations in Severodonetsk from the east.[10] Russian forces will likely continue to funnel troops and equipment into Severodonetsk to complete the capture of the industrial zone in the coming week.
Russian forces focused on maintaining positions to the southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman but did not make any confirmed advances towards Slovyansk on June 20.[11] Russian forces reportedly conducted an unsuccessful assault on Bohorodychne, about 20 kilometers northwest of Slovyansk.[12] Russian Telegram channel “Military chronicle” notably claimed that Ukrainian positions around Slovyansk are highly fortified and on “dominant heights,” which likely is an attempt to set information conditions to justify slow, grinding, and largely unsuccessful Russian advances towards Slovyansk.[13] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops around Lyman are conducting continual airstrikes and attempting to prevent Ukrainian forces from regrouping in this area.[14] Russian forces remain unlikely to advance on Slovyansk as they concentrate resources on completing the capture of Severodonetsk and the rest of Luhansk Oblast.
Russian forces continued efforts to interdict Ukrainian lines of communication east of Bakhmut along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway but did not make any confirmed advances on June 20.[15] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian sabotage groups near Bakhmut conducted an unsuccessful assault on Mykolaivka, which is a settlement directly along the T1302 highway.[16] Chechen troops additionally continued efforts to take control of Zolote to further support efforts to interdict Ukrainian lines of communication along the T1302.[17] Ukrainian officials have stated that the coming week will be decisive for the Russian offensive on Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, and Russian troops will likely further intensify artillery attacks east of Bakhmut along the T1302 in order to set conditions for an offensive northward to support the encirclement of Ukrainian troops in Severodonetsk-Lysychansk from the south.[18]
Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Withdraw forces to the north and defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum)
Russian forces north of Kharkiv City continued to focus on preventing further Ukrainian advances towards the international border on June 20.[19] Deputy Ukrainian Defense Minister Hanna Malyar claimed that Ukrainian troops have nearly reached the Russian border in Kharkiv Oblast and that Ukrainian forces still have some territory to liberate north of Kharkiv City.[20] While ISW cannot independently confirm the positions of Ukrainian troops near the Russian border, Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in this area will likely continue to pressure Russian troops to fight for control of occupied frontiers and intensify artillery attacks against Ukrainian positions around Kharkiv City.[21] Russian forces additionally conducted artillery attacks and unsuccessful reconnaissance-in-force southeast of Kharkiv City, likely in response to Ukrainian counteroffensive actions southeast of Kharkiv City heading towards the Izyum area.[22]
Continued......
Continued.....
Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces focused on defensive operations and fired on Ukrainian positions along the Southern Axis on June 20.[23] Russian forces intensified artillery strikes on the Mykolaiv-Kherson Oblast border, likely in response to recent Ukrainian counterattacks along the border south of Davydiv Brid and just north of Kherson City.[24] Ukraine’s Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration stated that Russian forces are continuing to move equipment northwards towards the Vasylivka district (approximately 40 kilometers south of Zaporizhia City) in order to fortify and defend occupied positions in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[25] Commander of the Azov Regiment Rodion Kudryshov notably claimed that Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhia have moved from defensive to offensive positions, which is consistent with reporting that Russian troops are concentrating forces and equipment in Zaporizhia Oblast to prepare for potential Ukrainian counteroffensives.[26] Russian forces are reportedly engaging in continual counter-battery operations along the E105 (also known as the M18) highway that runs through Vasylivka south of Zaporizhia City.[27] Russian forces continued missile and artillery strikes against various areas of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa Oblasts.[28]
Activity in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of occupied areas; set conditions for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or some other future political arrangement of Moscow’s choosing)
Russian authorities continued to struggle with consolidating control of occupied territories in the face of persistent Ukrainian partisan pressure. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on June 20 that mass partisan activity in occupied territories is preventing Russian authorities from being able to present public support for the accession of these areas to Russia.[29] The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) similarly claimed that Russian authorities in Berdyansk are faking queues for Russian passports at local administrative centers in order to fabricate a false façade of public desire for Russian citizenship.[30] The GUR additionally reported that Russian occupation authorities in Starobilsk, Luhansk Oblast, are coercing people into collective farming schemes and forcing those who work in these schemes into taking Russian citizenship.[31] Ukrainian partisan activity is likely having administrative consequences on Russian efforts to institute Russian citizenship processes en masse within occupied territories.
[2] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2022/06/20/vorog-namagatymetsya-vyjty-na-kordony-luganskoyi-oblasti-do-26-chervnya-ganna-malyar/
[3] Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА)
[4] View: https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1538911097138331648
[5] View: https://twitter.com/FCDOGovUK/status/1538827534967910400
[6] View: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1538761939370795008
; View: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1538762047856463872
; View: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1538762219902717952
; View: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1538762619674365952
; View: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1538762728462065664
[7] Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА)
[8] Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА) Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА)
[9] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2022/06/20/vorog-namagatymetsya-vyjty-na-kordony-luganskoyi-oblasti-do-26-chervnya-ganna-malyar/
[10] Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА); View: https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1538639693688053763
; View: https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1538928575579099138;
View: https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1538803220654567424
[11] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/343975544582197
; View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/343975544582197
[12] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/344356421210776
[13] Военная хроника
[14] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/343975544582197
[15] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/344356421210776;
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[17] Kadyrov_95
[18] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2022/06/20/vorog-namagatymetsya-vyjty-na-kordony-luganskoyi-oblasti-do-26-chervnya-ganna-malyar/
[19] Log into Facebook Log into Facebook
[20] SPRAVDI; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2022/06/20/syly-oborony-majzhe-vyjshly-do-derzhkordonu-na-harkivshhyni-cherez-cze-rf-posylyly-obstrily/
[21] SPRAVDI; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2022/06/20/syly-oborony-majzhe-vyjshly-do-derzhkordonu-na-harkivshhyni-cherez-cze-rf-posylyly-obstrily/; Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА
[22] Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА Log into Facebook
[23] Log into Facebook; Log into Facebook Facebook Watch Facebook Watch Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація
[24] Log into Facebook Военная хроника
[25] Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація
[26] Военная хроника Мариуполь сейчас
[27] Военная хроника
[28] Поточна оперативна обстановка на півдні України: станом на 13.00 20.06.2022 https://youtu.be/vDxvZZmNKOU
Ворог продовжує ведення бойових дій у тактиці контрбатарейного протистояння. Продовжує також обстрілювати тилові позиції, звільнені та віддалені від лінії фронту населені пункти. Так протягом ночі гатив по Широківській громаді. Потерпілих немає, пошкоджені житлові будинки. Тривають обстріли у Березнегуватській громаді. Інформація щодо потерпілих і пошкоджень уточнюється. Ввечорі вчора також були обстріли в селі Галицинове. Сталася часткова руйнація житлових будинків, потерпілих немає. 
В Воскресенській громаді внаслідок обстрілів припинилася подача енерго- та водопостачання. Руйнувань та потерпілих немає. У сілах, внаслідок влучань зайнялися поля з озимою пшеницею. 
На Херсонщині ситуація стабільно тяжка в Бериславському та Каховському районах. Від бойових дій пошкоджені та знищені будинки цивільних, багато замінованої інфраструктури. Мирні мешканці продовжують розповідати про мародерства з боку окупантів, погрози фермерам, підприємцям та викрадення людей. Ворог продовжує тероризувати й Одещину. Крилатими ракетами типу "Онікс", випущеними з берегового ракетного комплексу, що розташований в тимчасово окупованому Криму вночі був атакований Білгород-Дністровський район, а ранком - сама Одеса. В обох випадках силами протиповітряної оборони ракети знищені в повітрі. 
Тим часом рашистські пропагандисти розганяють теми фейкових влучань по аеродромах та іншій критичній, стратегічній, військовій інфраструктурі області. Вочевидь, щось в наших діях дуже непокоїть ворогів. 
В Чорному морі корабельне угруповання зменшилось на 1 ракетний корабель постійної присутності, зараз їх – 2, підводних човнів, як і ВДК по 3. Загроза удару 28 крилатими ракетами залишається. Контрдиверсійні заходи в регіоні системні та успішні, надійну охорону державного кордону забезпечено. 
Не піддавайтесь хибному інформаційному впливу, вчасно і правильно реагуйте на сигнали тривог, не наражайте себе на небезпеку, відвідуючи заборонені місця і об’єкти, не розголошуйте відомостей про діяльність та переміщення наших підрозділів. Не допомагайте ворогу, вірте в сили оборони і дочекаєтесь від нас справжніх добрих новин. Тримаймо стрій! Все буде... - Оперативне командування "Південь"/Operational Command “South” | By Оперативне командування "Південь"/Operational Command “South” | Поточна оперативна обстановка на півдні України: станом на 13.00 20.06.2022 https://youtu.be/vDxvZZmNKOU Ворог продовжує ведення бойових дій у...; 
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[29] https://sprotyv dot mod.gov.ua/2022/06/20/cherez-sprotyv-rosiyany-ne-mozhut-zimituvaty-dobrovilne-vhodzhennya-okupovanyh-terytorij-v-sklad-rf/
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Luhansk Battle Map Draft June 20,2022.png
Severodonetsk Battle Map Draft June 20,2022.png
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 20.pdf
Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces focused on defensive operations and fired on Ukrainian positions along the Southern Axis on June 20.[23] Russian forces intensified artillery strikes on the Mykolaiv-Kherson Oblast border, likely in response to recent Ukrainian counterattacks along the border south of Davydiv Brid and just north of Kherson City.[24] Ukraine’s Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration stated that Russian forces are continuing to move equipment northwards towards the Vasylivka district (approximately 40 kilometers south of Zaporizhia City) in order to fortify and defend occupied positions in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[25] Commander of the Azov Regiment Rodion Kudryshov notably claimed that Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhia have moved from defensive to offensive positions, which is consistent with reporting that Russian troops are concentrating forces and equipment in Zaporizhia Oblast to prepare for potential Ukrainian counteroffensives.[26] Russian forces are reportedly engaging in continual counter-battery operations along the E105 (also known as the M18) highway that runs through Vasylivka south of Zaporizhia City.[27] Russian forces continued missile and artillery strikes against various areas of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa Oblasts.[28]
Activity in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of occupied areas; set conditions for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or some other future political arrangement of Moscow’s choosing)
Russian authorities continued to struggle with consolidating control of occupied territories in the face of persistent Ukrainian partisan pressure. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on June 20 that mass partisan activity in occupied territories is preventing Russian authorities from being able to present public support for the accession of these areas to Russia.[29] The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) similarly claimed that Russian authorities in Berdyansk are faking queues for Russian passports at local administrative centers in order to fabricate a false façade of public desire for Russian citizenship.[30] The GUR additionally reported that Russian occupation authorities in Starobilsk, Luhansk Oblast, are coercing people into collective farming schemes and forcing those who work in these schemes into taking Russian citizenship.[31] Ukrainian partisan activity is likely having administrative consequences on Russian efforts to institute Russian citizenship processes en masse within occupied territories.
[1] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2022/06/20/vorog-namagatymetsya-vyjty-na-kordony-luganskoyi-oblasti-do-26-chervnya-ganna-malyar/[2] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2022/06/20/vorog-namagatymetsya-vyjty-na-kordony-luganskoyi-oblasti-do-26-chervnya-ganna-malyar/
[3] Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА)
[4] View: https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1538911097138331648
[5] View: https://twitter.com/FCDOGovUK/status/1538827534967910400
[6] View: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1538761939370795008
; View: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1538762047856463872
; View: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1538762219902717952
; View: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1538762619674365952
; View: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1538762728462065664
[7] Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА)
[8] Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА) Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА)
[9] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2022/06/20/vorog-namagatymetsya-vyjty-na-kordony-luganskoyi-oblasti-do-26-chervnya-ganna-malyar/
[10] Сергій Гайдай/ Луганська ОДА (ОВА); View: https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1538639693688053763
; View: https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1538928575579099138;
View: https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1538803220654567424
[11] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/343975544582197
; View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/343975544582197
[12] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/344356421210776
[13] Военная хроника
[14] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/343975544582197
[15] View: https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/344356421210776;
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[17] Kadyrov_95
[18] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2022/06/20/vorog-namagatymetsya-vyjty-na-kordony-luganskoyi-oblasti-do-26-chervnya-ganna-malyar/
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[20] SPRAVDI; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2022/06/20/syly-oborony-majzhe-vyjshly-do-derzhkordonu-na-harkivshhyni-cherez-cze-rf-posylyly-obstrily/
[21] SPRAVDI; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2022/06/20/syly-oborony-majzhe-vyjshly-do-derzhkordonu-na-harkivshhyni-cherez-cze-rf-posylyly-obstrily/; Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА
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[28] Поточна оперативна обстановка на півдні України: станом на 13.00 20.06.2022 https://youtu.be/vDxvZZmNKOU
Ворог продовжує ведення бойових дій у тактиці контрбатарейного протистояння. Продовжує також обстрілювати тилові позиції, звільнені та віддалені від лінії фронту населені пункти. Так протягом ночі гатив по Широківській громаді. Потерпілих немає, пошкоджені житлові будинки. Тривають обстріли у Березнегуватській громаді. Інформація щодо потерпілих і пошкоджень уточнюється. Ввечорі вчора також були обстріли в селі Галицинове. Сталася часткова руйнація житлових будинків, потерпілих немає. В Воскресенській громаді внаслідок обстрілів припинилася подача енерго- та водопостачання. Руйнувань та потерпілих немає. У сілах, внаслідок влучань зайнялися поля з озимою пшеницею. На Херсонщині ситуація стабільно тяжка в Бериславському та Каховському районах. Від бойових дій пошкоджені та знищені будинки цивільних, багато замінованої інфраструктури. Мирні мешканці продовжують розповідати про мародерства з боку окупантів, погрози фермерам, підприємцям та викрадення людей. Ворог продовжує тероризувати й Одещину. Крилатими ракетами типу "Онікс", випущеними з берегового ракетного комплексу, що розташований в тимчасово окупованому Криму вночі був атакований Білгород-Дністровський район, а ранком - сама Одеса. В обох випадках силами протиповітряної оборони ракети знищені в повітрі. Тим часом рашистські пропагандисти розганяють теми фейкових влучань по аеродромах та іншій критичній, стратегічній, військовій інфраструктурі області. Вочевидь, щось в наших діях дуже непокоїть ворогів. В Чорному морі корабельне угруповання зменшилось на 1 ракетний корабель постійної присутності, зараз їх – 2, підводних човнів, як і ВДК по 3. Загроза удару 28 крилатими ракетами залишається. Контрдиверсійні заходи в регіоні системні та успішні, надійну охорону державного кордону забезпечено. Не піддавайтесь хибному інформаційному впливу, вчасно і правильно реагуйте на сигнали тривог, не наражайте себе на небезпеку, відвідуючи заборонені місця і об’єкти, не розголошуйте відомостей про діяльність та переміщення наших підрозділів. Не допомагайте ворогу, вірте в сили оборони і дочекаєтесь від нас справжніх добрих новин. Тримаймо стрій! Все буде... - Оперативне командування "Південь"/Operational Command “South” | By Оперативне командування "Південь"/Operational Command “South” | Поточна оперативна обстановка на півдні України: станом на 13.00 20.06.2022 https://youtu.be/vDxvZZmNKOU Ворог продовжує ведення бойових дій у...; БРАТЧУК Политика Страны; Политика Страны; Минобороны России; Выпускайте Z Кракена! Kotsnews; Военная хроника Валентин Резніченко/ Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА); Микола Лукашук – голова ДОР Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація Log into Facebook; Log into Facebook[29] https://sprotyv dot mod.gov.ua/2022/06/20/cherez-sprotyv-rosiyany-ne-mozhut-zimituvaty-dobrovilne-vhodzhennya-okupovanyh-terytorij-v-sklad-rf/
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asiatimes.com
UKRAINE WAR
Ukraine – the situation (June 20, 2022)
The Ukrainian General Staff in its evening report voiced concern that ‘Kharkiv will again be a battle zone’
By UWE PARPARTJUNE 21, 2022
Don't freak out yet but Kalingrad, which the Lithuanians are blockading, is the site of a Russian battalion fielding these nuclear missiles. Photo: Missile Threat
Asia Times is publishing Ukraine war situation reports based on multiple military and think tank sources. It’s our unvarnished bid to cut through the propaganda and misinformation of all sides that contribute to the fog of war.
Summary/overview
NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg forecast a “long war” in Ukraine. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, in full Churchillian pose, chimed in on cue: “We need to steel ourselves for a long war.”
A new front? Lithuania has banned the transit of sanctioned goods from Russia to the enclave of Kaliningrad (formerly Königsberg). Russia sees it as a violation of the EU agreement in 2004 that saw the EU expand to include the Baltic States and says it will break the “blockade”. Note that Lithuania is a NATO member.
Russian forces have gained added ground in the Severodonetsk region and – according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense – have pushed through the town of Toshkivka southeast of Lysychansk.
Heavy fighting and artillery fire continue along the entire line of control northwest of Popasna. The main road from the transportation hub of Bakhmut to Lysychansk has been rendered impassable by Russian forces.
Russian forces have stepped up artillery fire and reconnaissance probes north to northeast of Kharkiv. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) in its evening report voiced concern that “Kharkiv will again be a battle zone.”
Ukrainian forces counter-attacked in the south and gained ground in the Zaporizhia oblast according to the UGS.
Center/east
The focus of battle in Severodonetsk continues to be the Azot fertilizer plant. As in Mariupol, Russian forces are tightening the encirclement but appear in no hurry to deliver any decisive blows. Several suburbs of Severodonetsk have been overrun. However, with the capture of the town of Toshkivka on the west side of the Donets River, any attack on Lysychansk will now come from the southwest.
Farther west, closer to the exit of the Donbas salient, the main road to Lysychansk has been cut.
Farther north, Russian forces continue to grind closer to the transport hub of Sloviansk.
Very heavy artillery fire is reported by the UGS, but the progress of Russian forces is halting.
South
Anecdotal reporting suggests that counterattacks by Ukrainian forces may have advanced several kilometers into Russian-held territory in the Zaporizhia area, but this is unconfirmed.
Assessment
Albeit continuing a slow grind, Russian forces’ progress in the Donbas is again noticeable and a decision appears to have been made not only to disrupt but to cut resupply to Ukrainian forces in the easternmost part of the Donbas salient.
The critical issue going forward is the availability of trained manpower. A war of attrition does not favor Ukraine.
By their own count, the Ukrainians have lost up to 50% of their weapons and equipment to date. NATO countries over time can replace that.
What cannot be replaced is lost manpower. Yet, oddly, as a ranking US intelligence officer observes, “the general tenor of commentary is that the Ukrainians can keep fighting if we just give them the weapons – but the Russians, with a population roughly four times that of Ukraine, are assessed to be on the brink of a total organizational and demographic götterdämmerung.”
We are not ready to raise a huge alarm over a threatened Russian attempt to break the Kaliningrad blockade. However, Kaliningrad is the base for an SS-26 nuclear missile brigade. In March nuclear maneuvers were conducted there and two SU-24s flew out over the Baltic loaded with nukes.
Other
TASS has reported that the deputy commander of the Azov Regiment, Svyatoslav Palamar, and the commander of the 36th Marine Brigade, Serhiy Volynsky, both of whom surrendered in May at the Azov steel plant, have been transferred to Russia and are being held in Lefortovo prison in Moscow in anticipation of their trials.
And there will likely be show trials of captured American ex-soldiers.
Ukraine - the situation (June 20, 2022) - Asia Times
Asia Times is publishing Ukraine war situation reports based on multiple military and think tank sources. It’s our unvarnished bid to cut through the
asiatimes.com
UKRAINE WAR
Ukraine – the situation (June 20, 2022)
The Ukrainian General Staff in its evening report voiced concern that ‘Kharkiv will again be a battle zone’
By UWE PARPARTJUNE 21, 2022
Don't freak out yet but Kalingrad, which the Lithuanians are blockading, is the site of a Russian battalion fielding these nuclear missiles. Photo: Missile Threat
Asia Times is publishing Ukraine war situation reports based on multiple military and think tank sources. It’s our unvarnished bid to cut through the propaganda and misinformation of all sides that contribute to the fog of war.
Summary/overview
NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg forecast a “long war” in Ukraine. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, in full Churchillian pose, chimed in on cue: “We need to steel ourselves for a long war.”
A new front? Lithuania has banned the transit of sanctioned goods from Russia to the enclave of Kaliningrad (formerly Königsberg). Russia sees it as a violation of the EU agreement in 2004 that saw the EU expand to include the Baltic States and says it will break the “blockade”. Note that Lithuania is a NATO member.
Russian forces have gained added ground in the Severodonetsk region and – according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense – have pushed through the town of Toshkivka southeast of Lysychansk.
Heavy fighting and artillery fire continue along the entire line of control northwest of Popasna. The main road from the transportation hub of Bakhmut to Lysychansk has been rendered impassable by Russian forces.
Russian forces have stepped up artillery fire and reconnaissance probes north to northeast of Kharkiv. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) in its evening report voiced concern that “Kharkiv will again be a battle zone.”
Ukrainian forces counter-attacked in the south and gained ground in the Zaporizhia oblast according to the UGS.
Center/east
The focus of battle in Severodonetsk continues to be the Azot fertilizer plant. As in Mariupol, Russian forces are tightening the encirclement but appear in no hurry to deliver any decisive blows. Several suburbs of Severodonetsk have been overrun. However, with the capture of the town of Toshkivka on the west side of the Donets River, any attack on Lysychansk will now come from the southwest.
Farther west, closer to the exit of the Donbas salient, the main road to Lysychansk has been cut.
Farther north, Russian forces continue to grind closer to the transport hub of Sloviansk.
Very heavy artillery fire is reported by the UGS, but the progress of Russian forces is halting.
South
Anecdotal reporting suggests that counterattacks by Ukrainian forces may have advanced several kilometers into Russian-held territory in the Zaporizhia area, but this is unconfirmed.
Assessment
Albeit continuing a slow grind, Russian forces’ progress in the Donbas is again noticeable and a decision appears to have been made not only to disrupt but to cut resupply to Ukrainian forces in the easternmost part of the Donbas salient.
The critical issue going forward is the availability of trained manpower. A war of attrition does not favor Ukraine.
By their own count, the Ukrainians have lost up to 50% of their weapons and equipment to date. NATO countries over time can replace that.
What cannot be replaced is lost manpower. Yet, oddly, as a ranking US intelligence officer observes, “the general tenor of commentary is that the Ukrainians can keep fighting if we just give them the weapons – but the Russians, with a population roughly four times that of Ukraine, are assessed to be on the brink of a total organizational and demographic götterdämmerung.”
We are not ready to raise a huge alarm over a threatened Russian attempt to break the Kaliningrad blockade. However, Kaliningrad is the base for an SS-26 nuclear missile brigade. In March nuclear maneuvers were conducted there and two SU-24s flew out over the Baltic loaded with nukes.
Other
TASS has reported that the deputy commander of the Azov Regiment, Svyatoslav Palamar, and the commander of the 36th Marine Brigade, Serhiy Volynsky, both of whom surrendered in May at the Azov steel plant, have been transferred to Russia and are being held in Lefortovo prison in Moscow in anticipation of their trials.
And there will likely be show trials of captured American ex-soldiers.
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