ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
Fires happen every day - but in today's search for clickbait - anything and everything is posted - and re-posted.
Only surprised we are not seeing article on dumpster fires - yet.
Hundreds and hundreds of fires all in the last 3.5 years? Keep hiding until it hits you up close and personal. The only oil refinery in my State "caught fire" in the last two months. Yeah, like it has never happened before, but now you can add that to the list over the last 3.5 years.
 

Cedar Lake

Connecticut Yankee

Dmitry Medvedev's Speech On Russia's Strategic Borders​

Good review of Russia's position - always best to use primary sources

One may not like Russia or even feel hostile towards its current policies and leadership.

But that should not hinder one to recognize and acknowledge how Russia is seeing itself and it defines its own role in the wider world.

The former Russian president Dimitry Medvedev is currently the deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia recently spoke about multiple definitions of borders.

Medvedev has lately become a bit of the bad guy who spits the harsh truth with the good guy being Russia's President Vladimir Putin who is using less vitriolic language. But if one removes the rhetoric chaff the concepts espoused by both in various speeches are quite similar and should be seen as the basis of Russia's policies.
''Russia's inevitable victory will also create a new architecture of Eurasian and international security. It should be reflected in new interstate documents that will "concretize" these realities. This includes observing international rules of decency with all countries, paying close attention to their history and existing strategic borders. NATO/Europe must finally learn a simple lesson and learn to respect our national interests.''

This point, along with Mr. Medvedev’s references to “strategic borders” brought to mind the December 2021 draft European security treat published by Russia.

He is reminding NATO/Europe that this document hasn’t gone away and will be incorporated to Russia’s satisfaction in any long-term comprehensive settlement.

Excellent article, worth reading
 

Cedar Lake

Connecticut Yankee
Glascoed, South Wales, Britain:

An explosion occurred at the largest plant in Europe producing weapons for Ukraine

▪️British BAE Systems Glascoed is Europe's largest military weapons plant.
▪️A BAE Systems spokesman said the explosion occurred at a remote plant usually used for refueling projectiles, adding that there were no reports of injuries

Earlier this year, the plant was the site of a major protest as pro-Palestinian protesters shut down the plant, accusing the company of supplying F-35 stealth fighter jets and 155mm artillery shells to the Israeli Defense Forces.
▪️The company began cooperation with Ukraine in August last year. They stated that they were going to start production of the L119 and M777 artillery systems and the CV90 infantry fighting vehicle.

 

Abert

Veteran Member
Really Strange - I am sure there is a good background story.
Showed up a few days ago, not sure if this is the same event/photo or not. One likely explanation is that it is being used for mine clearing - if so no need for 360 deg views or pointing of the main gun. The cage would protect it from some drones as it clears a path, Very likely this is a one off - and without question - home built.
 

jward

passin' thru
(((Tendar)))
@Tendar

The Ukraine aid bill is really impressive. Just excerpts of it:

- Allocation of more than $60 billion, most of it is military aid, especially the "Operation and Maintenance" (Defense-Wide) section with $27.9 billion makes the largest package
- It also includes support for the civil society of around $7.9 billion (section "Economic Support Fund")
- It is provided as a loan, but the President has the ability to cancel 50% of that loan (Cancelation of Indebtedness) after November 15, 2024
- Funds are available at least until the end of this year, but certain parts such as missile procurement are valid even until September 2026
- 45 days time to lay out a strategy to combat Russian aggression
- It calls to provide a strategy to hasten Ukrainian victory against Russia’s invasion forces in a manner most favorable to United States interests and objectives (possibly the first time that "victory" is explicitly expressed in a formalized manner)
- Transfer of long-range ATACMS, President might object when he sees national security compromised

Overall it is a very balanced but still powerful bill.

Source: https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/

1713415816086.png
 

Abert

Veteran Member
(((Tendar)))
@Tendar

The Ukraine aid bill is really impressive. Just excerpts of it:

- Allocation of more than $60 billion, most of it is military aid, especially the "Operation and Maintenance" (Defense-Wide) section with $27.9 billion makes the largest package
- It also includes support for the civil society of around $7.9 billion (section "Economic Support Fund")
- It is provided as a loan, but the President has the ability to cancel 50% of that loan (Cancelation of Indebtedness) after November 15, 2024
- Funds are available at least until the end of this year, but certain parts such as missile procurement are valid even until September 2026
- 45 days time to lay out a strategy to combat Russian aggression
- It calls to provide a strategy to hasten Ukrainian victory against Russia’s invasion forces in a manner most favorable to United States interests and objectives (possibly the first time that "victory" is explicitly expressed in a formalized manner)
- Transfer of long-range ATACMS, President might object when he sees national security compromised

Overall it is a very balanced but still powerful bill.

Source: https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/

View attachment 470971
There is a KEY insert almost no one is talking about - A $482 Million SLUSH Fund for refugees (in general) - it does not restrict these funds to only Ukrainian's - seeing the US is not allowing any more Ukrainian's in and has not for the last 2+ years - wonder who will get these MILLIONS and who will they be supporting - YEP - likely our Border & related NGOs

The measure also includes the $481 million for "refugee and entrant assistance activities" within the U.S., such as housing and medical assistance, linguistic services and legal support. The funds would be made available "for grants or contracts with qualified organizations, including nonprofit entities," as well by the Office of Refugee Resettlement.

Refugees Would Get Millions for Housing Under New Bill​

 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

The Polish President Revealed That Foreign Companies Own Most Of Ukraine's Industrial Agriculture​


BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, APR 18, 2024 - 02:00 AM
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
The Oakland Institute published a detailed report in February 2023 titled “War and Theft: The Takeover of Ukraine’s Agricultural Land”, which exposed how foreign firms have clandestinely taken control of a significant share of Ukrainian farmland by exploiting a liberal law in collusion with local oligarchs. Their findings made waves around the world at the time but eventually receded from the public’s attention over half a year later once Western outlets like the USA Today misleadingly “fact-checked” it.


They took advantage of social media users conflating indirect ownership through stakes with direct control to discredit the institution’s report, after which it largely faded from the general discourse. Few could have expected that it would be none other than Polish President Andrzej Duda who just breathed new life into it during his interview with Lithuanian National Radio and Television. He was explaining Poland’s problem with Ukrainian agricultural imports when he dropped the following bombshell:

“I would like to draw particular attention to industrial agriculture, which is not really run by Ukrainians, it is run by big companies from Western Europe, from the USA. If we look today at the owners of most of the land, they are not Ukrainian companies. This is a paradoxical situation, and no wonder that farmers are defending themselves, because they have invested in their farms in Poland […] and cheap agricultural produce coming from Ukraine is dramatically destructive to them.”
Duda represents what’s widely considered to be one of the most pro-American and anti-Russian governments at any time in history so he can’t credibly be accused of “pushing Kremlin propaganda”.

He therefore wouldn’t have confirmed the dramatic claim of majority-foreign ownership of Ukraine’s industrial agriculture, albeit indirectly through stakes in national companies that exploit a liberal law in collusion with local oligarchs, if he didn’t have the facts provided to him by Polish experts to back it up.

This development should prompt a resurgence of interest in prior reports on this subject such as USAID’s about how “Private Sector on the Frontlines of Land Reform to Unlock Ukraine’s Investment Potential”. Thomas Fazi’s detailed report for UnHeard back in July 2023 about how “The capitalists are circling over Ukraine: The war is creating massive profit opportunities” is also insightful. Most relevant, however, is what Zelensky told the World Economic Forum in Davos in May 2022. In his words:

“We offer a special - historically significant - model of reconstruction. When each of the partner countries or partner cities or partner companies will have the opportunity - historical one - to take patronage over a particular region of Ukraine, city, community or industry. Britain, Denmark, the European Union and other leading international actors have already chosen a specific direction for patronage in reconstruction.”
One year later, he hosted BlackRock’s management in Kiev, during which time they discussed the creation of an investment and reconstruction fund. According to Zelensky, “Today is a historic moment because, since the very first days of independence, we have not had such huge investment cases in Ukraine. We are proud that we can initiate such a process…We will be able to offer interesting projects to invest in energy, security, agriculture, logistics, infrastructure, medicine, IT, and many other areas.”

Putting the pieces together, the Ukrainian leader made good on his May 2022 Davos proposal by offering companies “patronage” over Ukraine’s industrial agriculture, which was already in the process of unfolding prior to then but was greatly accelerated by last May’s meeting with BlackRock’s management. This took the tangible form of these indirectly foreign-controlled farms outcompeting Poland’s by far, thus leading to the Polish farmers’ protests across the country and the latest troubles in bilateral ties.

The sequence of events detailed thus far places into context mid-February’s report about the G7’s alleged plans to appoint an envoy to Ukraine, who’d obviously be tasked with implementing the Davos agenda if this comes to pass, particularly entrenching foreign control over Ukrainian farmland. It also suggests that Ukraine’s informal focus on ramping up agricultural exports to the EU isn’t just opportunistic, but partially driven by these foreign firms’ preference for speedy and reliable profits.

Ukraine had hitherto been an agricultural powerhouse in the Global South but ceded its market share to Russia on the false pretext that Moscow was blockading the Black Sea, which in turn prompted the EU to temporarily eliminate prior trade barriers for the official purpose of facilitating exports via its territory. In reality, Russia never blockaded the Black Sea, and almost all of the Ukrainian grain that entered the EU remained there instead of traveling through the bloc en route to Kiev’s traditional Global South markets.

It's much quicker for Ukraine to sell its agricultural products in the neighboring EU than to wait however long it takes to export them to Africa, not to mention more reliable as well since it’s unimaginable that these developed economies would ever have the same possible payment problems as developing ones. These self-evident calculations work against Poland’s interests, ergo how much of a struggle it’ll be for that country to defend its domestic market from this influx considering the powerful forces at play.

It's not just the Ukrainian agricultural lobby that wants tariff-free access for these products into the EU market, but also the lobbies of those foreign firms that indirectly control its industrial agriculture. The latter will likely fight tooth and nail to prevent any compromise being reached on Ukraine’s hoped-for EU membership whereby that former Soviet Republic’s agricultural sector would be excluded from any deal. Poland therefore has every reason to continue drawing global attention to these shadowy relationships.

It's only by raising maximum awareness of the fact that “most of the land” within Ukraine’s industrial agriculture sector “is run by big companies from Western Europe, from the USA” that Poland stands any chance of the aforesaid compromise entering into force. That’ll make the country some very powerful enemies who could then meddle in Polish domestic affairs out of vengeance, but Duda’s latest interview suggests that he’s prepared to face their wrath in order to protect Poland’s objective national interests.
 

mistaken1

Has No Life - Lives on TB
How long before Duda cuts a deal with Putin to protect Poland from the pirates of the west?
Conversely how long before Duda is deposed in a Polish color revolution and replaced with someone more reliable?
Or will simply holding up military sales be enough to bring Duda to heal?
 

colonel holman

Veteran Member
There is a KEY insert almost no one is talking about - A $482 Million SLUSH Fund for refugees (in general) - it does not restrict these funds to only Ukrainian's - seeing the US is not allowing any more Ukrainian's in and has not for the last 2+ years - wonder who will get these MILLIONS and who will they be supporting - YEP - likely our Border & related NGOs

The measure also includes the $481 million for "refugee and entrant assistance activities" within the U.S., such as housing and medical assistance, linguistic services and legal support. The funds would be made available "for grants or contracts with qualified organizations, including nonprofit entities," as well by the Office of Refugee Resettlement.

Refugees Would Get Millions for Housing Under New Bill​

or, are we (USA) anticipating and preparing to handle a new flood of “refugees” from Ukraine once they fall to the Russians (and any other opportunists seeking a piece of Uke)? Another bolus of souls to pump up specific local populations for the census to provide additional House seats for blue states, the bottom-line reason Dems are exploiting illegal immigration (additional House seats gives the added Electoral College votes)
 

Abert

Veteran Member
or, are we (USA) anticipating and preparing to handle a new flood of “refugees” from Ukraine once they fall to the Russians (and any other opportunists seeking a piece of Uke)? Another bolus of souls to pump up specific local populations for the census to provide additional House seats for blue states, the bottom-line reason Dems are exploiting illegal immigration (additional House seats gives the added Electoral College votes)
NO - we know of an Ukrainian family that we have been trying to get into the US. The US did allow a few in at the beginning of this conflict but the US has effectively shut down any more. If they are (and have not) been taking them in - why now? Actually they are NOT the type of refugees the US Gov wants - European - Educated - Christian and WHITE.

My best GUESS is this refugee and entrant assistance activities was folded in to cover the "Newcomers" crossing our Southern Border. The processing of these MILLIONS is a key Dem and Biden policy and they need the millions in processing funds as well as $$$ to do KICKBACK to politically connected NGO's.

Johnson said he will float a Border Bill after these aid packages are voted on this weekend. There is ZERO chance that any House Border Bill will ever see the light in the Senate. The original bill that came from the Senate (dead in the House) included these funds. So Bottom line the administration NEEDs this money - so like what is often done - just slide it into another bill that is a must pass. So much for Johnson holding the line - another bill likely written by Dems.
 

Abert

Veteran Member
They never learn - The Sanctions against Russia (over 11,000 new in just the last 2 years) have not collapsed their Economy - the latest IMF reports shows they will be the fastest growing economy - faster than the US and EU nations. But the Sanctions have had severe Economic impacts on EU industry. The Sanctions are also a driving force for nations to get out from under US Economic control and are joining BRICS.

So what to do? The US having blocked transactions now wants to "seize" monies that had been deposited to cover their international transactions. This will only cause more nations to get out of the US controlled SWIFT system. If the US can not only block your ability to buy and sell but can then also take funds deposited - at any time - well the risk is just too great. While the Sanctions backfired this will have an even bigger negative effect going forward.

Opposed by many financial ministers in the EU because of potentially dire consequences for the Western financial system we have the US pushing for it - only for short term and Pollical goals.

Janet Yellen’s Ukraine mission​

The Treasury secretary is trying to rally fellow finance ministers gathering in Washington to get behind the idea of seizing billions in Russian assets.

What may be a bigger problem is international buy-in. Europe is home to the bulk of the assets — around $200 billion, compared to the $5-8 billion in the U.S. — and it’s also where there is deep concern about the legal ramifications, economic fallout and potential Russian retaliation that could arise from tapping the money.

Yellen acknowledged the concerns in a press conference Tuesday.

Of course, there could be retaliation, and we are looking at the risks that are associated with using these assets and evaluating different strategies that we might present to the G7 leaders,” she said. “Evaluating the risks is part of that. But overall I believe there are ways of managing the risks, particularly if the G7 acts together in unison, and that it’s important for us to do so.”


What could go wrong.
 
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Abert

Veteran Member
Russia will take advantage of the election cycles
Without question the US elections are factored into the Russian actions, but with the US about to pass (as expected) more funds for Ukraine - elections or not - there is not much else the US can do. Even IF Trump manages to win - and be seated - Russia has little reason to negonate. They have been played over and over again. From their view the US is incapable of negotiating in good fate. Russian diplomat Aleksandr Kramarenko has said - "No amount of negotiating with the US has been able to bring about meaningful results, as Washington has repeatedly broken the trust of its partners and refused to respect agreements, acting solely in its own interest"

The only remaining card the US and NATO could play is 100% direct intervention - Russia will be careful (as they have) to avoid any actions so extream that it could trigger such a response. Russia can not afford to base their military operations on the ups and downs of internal US Politics which can change week by week. Russia will continue their current advances based on their goals to an end they will control - Biden or Trump - makes little difference.

 
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Abert

Veteran Member
Ukraine doubling down - no negotiations

Ukraine torpedoes deal with Russia to secure safe shipping in Black Sea war zone​

Kyiv and Moscow would have ensured the safety of each other’s commercial vessels​

A Turkish-mediated, United Nations-backed deal to ensure the safety of commercial ships in the Black Sea war zone was reportedly scuttled at the last minute.

The agreement to ensure “free and safe navigation of merchant vessels” in the region was scheduled to be announced by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on 30 March, Reuters reported, citing several sources familiar with the matter.

The government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had indicated that it had nothing against Erdogan announcing such a deal, even though it never intended to formally sign it.

Late last month, at the “very last minute”, however, Ukraine pulled out and the deal was abandoned,
one of the sources told Reuters.
 

jward

passin' thru
Visegrád 24
@visegrad24

BREAKING:

German police have arrested 2 suspected Russian agents planning attacks in the country.

Acting on Russian behalf, they were photographing US bases in Germany and planned sabotage attacks on military shipping routes, bringing U.S. weapons to Germany and Ukraine.
 

jward

passin' thru
Igor Sushko
@igorsushko

Russia: Military factory Avangard, the main producer of S-300 & S-400 missiles, is on fire in Moscow.
View: https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1780343524963086481

Intelschizo
@Schizointel

Third 155mm factory to suffer explosion/fire this week.
2 in the United States
1 in the UK

2 Russian saboteurs were arrested in Germany.

Russia has a long track record of this
Since 2014 they have blown up
6 in Ukraine
2 in the Czech Republic
1 in Bulgaria
View: https://twitter.com/Schizointel/status/1780951974252249333
 

jward

passin' thru
Visegrád 24
@visegrad24
6h

BREAKING:

Argentine President Javier Milei submits a request to NATO to become a global partner of the military alliance.

Looks like Ukraine could suddenly receive artillery shells and other weapons from an unexpected source
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Visegrád 24
@visegrad24
6h

BREAKING:

Argentine President Javier Milei submits a request to NATO to become a global partner of the military alliance.

Looks like Ukraine could suddenly receive artillery shells and other weapons from an unexpected source

Hummm....
 

wait-n-see

Veteran Member

Poland "Doesn't Know How Many T-72 Tanks It Has" Amid Official Figure Of 60 To 250 Ukraine Donations​

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbFj71y_0rI

Run time - 6:14
Apr 18, 2024

The Polish army has likely “lost track” of the number of Soviet-era T-72 tanks the Polish military currently operates. The public in Poland is reportedly unaware of how many T-72 tanks Warsaw has donated to Ukraine so far. Kyiv probably received at least 30 to 60 vehicles, but the actual numbers are not publicly available, as per defence analysts. It also remains unclear whether any Polish Leopards were actually sent to Ukraine to fight the Russian army.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment

Poland "Doesn't Know How Many T-72 Tanks It Has" Amid Official Figure Of 60 To 250 Ukraine Donations​

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbFj71y_0rI

Run time - 6:14
Apr 18, 2024

The Polish army has likely “lost track” of the number of Soviet-era T-72 tanks the Polish military currently operates. The public in Poland is reportedly unaware of how many T-72 tanks Warsaw has donated to Ukraine so far. Kyiv probably received at least 30 to 60 vehicles, but the actual numbers are not publicly available, as per defence analysts. It also remains unclear whether any Polish Leopards were actually sent to Ukraine to fight the Russian army.

Probably a question of how may were shipped to Ukraine and how many were retained and broken down for parts for repairing damaged tanks.
 

Abert

Veteran Member
Visegrád 24
@visegrad24
6h

BREAKING:

Argentine President Javier Milei submits a request to NATO to become a global partner of the military alliance.

Looks like Ukraine could suddenly receive artillery shells and other weapons from an unexpected source
Argentine is NOT a military power house - they have a very limited number of 155 artillery units.
Only about 100 of thier CITER 155mm L33 guns and 17 of the Italian made Palmaria 155mm self-propelled howitzer.
With only 100 or so 155 units in use it is VERY unlikely they have stocks of 100's of thousands of 155 rounds.
About the same with armor and APC - their largest number of APC are around 400 of the US made (VN War era) M113
Besides no need to join NATO to ship war material to Ukraine - what little they have.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Argentine is NOT a military power house - they have a very limited number of 155 artillery units.
Only about 100 of thier CITER 155mm L33 guns and 17 of the Italian made Palmaria 155mm self-propelled howitzer.
With only 100 or so 155 units in use it is VERY unlikely they have stocks of 100's of thousands of 155 rounds.
About the same with armor and APC - their largest number of APC are around 400 of the US made (VN War era) M113
Besides no need to join NATO to ship war material to Ukraine - what little they have.

But they can act as a funds "laundry". There's also Argentina's Fabricacions Militares Sociedad del Estado, the national arms manufacturer run by their ministry of defense which manufactures a full range of STANAG weapons and munitions.

 

Abert

Veteran Member
But they can act as a funds "laundry". There's also Argentina's Fabricacions Militares Sociedad del Estado, the national arms manufacturer run by their ministry of defense which manufactures a full range of STANAG weapons and munitions.

From what I understand they are limited in ammo production - mainly small arms ammo. They do produce the L33 155mm artillery unit - but NO 155mm ammo. They can produce 105mm ammo.
An older factory operation from WW2 that has expanded into other areas - but always best to check primary sources.
Their Minister of Defense Web as of August 24, 2023 (will need auto translate)
 

Walrus

Veteran Member
Other than Brasilian (MagTech), I can't recall ever seeing any South American ammo, whether Argentinian or otherwise. It could be I've just never noticed it.

Lots of Mexican ammo around, especially in .22 or .22 magnum, but that doesn't really count as South American per se. I think I've only noticed American-origin ammo in .16 HMR.
 

Abert

Veteran Member
Not just the US

Europe Battles Powder Shortage To Supply Shells For Ukraine​

"We have all become aware of the need to face up to the scarcity of some components, especially gunpowders," French President Emmanuel Macron said Monday after a gathering of Kyiv's allies in Paris.

"Powder is really what's lacking today," he added.
 

Knoxville's Joker

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Not just the US

Europe Battles Powder Shortage To Supply Shells For Ukraine​

"We have all become aware of the need to face up to the scarcity of some components, especially gunpowders," French President Emmanuel Macron said Monday after a gathering of Kyiv's allies in Paris.

"Powder is really what's lacking today," he added.
Is not the green new deal stuff a limiting factor on gunpowder ingredient production?
 

Cedar Lake

Connecticut Yankee
More & more Ukrainians are surrendering.

⚔️ A group of Ukrainian soldiers swam across the Dnepr river in Kherson region and surrendered to Russian forces.

Runtime: 50 sec.

 

Cedar Lake

Connecticut Yankee
161 Ukrainian kids "kidnapped by Putin" were finally found

...in Germany.

More Info:

The head of the National Police of Ukraine, Ivan Vygovsky, said that thanks to cooperation with German law enforcement agencies, 161 Ukrainian children were found in Germany. These children, he said, were wanted as those who had been forcibly transferred during the war to the occupied territories, Russia or Belarus. Vygovsky did not specify how they got to Germany.

––––
Here is my explanation in case Mr. Vygovsky is struggling: the whole "Russia steals Ukrainian kids" story was a pile of crap from the beginning.
 
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