ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread
- Thread starter danielboon
- Start date
von Koehler
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Satellite image of the Russian Black Sea Fleet's large landing ships was obtained, the same ships that were targeted with cruise missiles yesterday.
DD Geopolitics
⚔️ Satellite image of the Russian Black Sea Fleet's large landing ships was obtained, the same ships that were targeted with cruise missiles yesterday. There is no damage visible on either ship, however, on one of the shipss docked at the pier, a trace presumed to be from a cruise missile...t.me
There is no damage visible on either ship, however, on one of the shipss docked at the pier, a trace presumed to be from a cruise missile hitting the pier itself can be observed.
It remains unclear whether the missile missed its target or was intercepted directly above the ship.
5:18 min
Latest satellite imagery of recent attack by Ukraine.
The Attritional Art of War: Lessons from the Russian War on Ukraine
Excellent article (but long) - reviews the differences between US / NATO Manoeuvre Warfare and the traditional Russian type of Attritional War and what we are seeing in Ukraine.Note: This article is by a military expert - US Lt Col (Retd) Alex Vershinin has 10 years of frontline experience in Korea, Iraq and Afghanistan. For the last decade before his retirement, he worked as a modelling and simulations officer in concept development and experimentation for NATO and the US Army.
The Attritional Art of War: Lessons from the Russian War on Ukraine
If the West is serious about the possibility of a great power conflict, it needs to take a hard look at its capacity to wage a protracted war and to pursue a strategy focused on attrition rather than manoeuvre.
rusi.org
Attritional wars require their own ‘Art of War’ and are fought with a ‘force-centric’ approach, unlike wars of manoeuvre which are ‘terrain-focused’. They are rooted in massive industrial capacity to enable the replacement of losses, geographical depth to absorb a series of defeats, and technological conditions that prevent rapid ground movement. In attritional wars, military operations are shaped by a state’s ability to replace losses and generate new formations, not tactical and operational manoeuvres. The side that accepts the attritional nature of war and focuses on destroying enemy forces rather than gaining terrain is most likely to win.
The West is not prepared for this kind of war. To most Western experts, attritional strategy is counterintuitive. Historically, the West preferred the short ‘winner takes all’ clash of professional armies. Recent war games such as CSIS’s war over Taiwan covered one month of fighting. The possibility that the war would go on never entered the discussion. This is a reflection of a common Western attitude.
The conduct of attritional wars is vastly different from wars of manoeuvre. They last longer and end up testing a country’s industrial capacity. Victory is assured by careful planning, industrial base development and development of mobilisation infrastructure in times of peace, and even more careful management of resources in wartime.
The military conduct of war is driven by overall political strategic objectives, military realities and economic limitations. Combat operations are shallow and focus on destroying enemy resources, not on gaining terrain. Propaganda is used to support military operations, not the other way around. With patience and careful planning, a war can be won.
Cedar Lake
Connecticut Yankee
Massive Strike on the Yavorovsky training ground in the Lviv region:
Another target hit in the Lviv region during a massive attack was the territory of the International Center for Peacekeeping and Security at the Yavorovsky training ground. The object has already become a target of the Russian Armed Forces more than once; at least two effective defeats are known, on March 13, 2022 and November 3, 2023 .
Today's attack on the Yavorovsky training ground took place in several stages. First, the strikes were carried out by strategic cruise missiles; at least three managed to break through to the target.
Two hours after the end of the massive strike, when the enemy lost his vigilance, several MiG-31Ks launched Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, which controlled the target.
*with a high degree of probability in the video published today - the moment of the control strike.
Based on the available data, the cruise missiles caused damage exclusively to the equipment that was located on the territory of the test site and among which the majority were NATO military equipment are known to have been destroyed . The main defeat was inflicted by Kinzhal missiles, which hit the sites of night strikes. Enemy servicemen were engaged in liquidating the consequences of the defeat at the time of the control attack.
As a result of the strike, about 100 people are known to have been killed or wounded. Some of which, at least 30, are foreign mercenaries from France , Poland , Germany and Britain . What functions they performed and what the purpose of their stay at the site requires no comment.
This strike once again confirms the previously expressed opinion - while there are political disputes and debates about the entry of Western troops or some coalition continent into the territory of Ukraine, NATO soldiers are already there for arms control, intelligence operations and training of Ukrainian forces.
And what kind of disputes there can be is a rhetorical question.
t.me
Google Translator is your friend.
Another target hit in the Lviv region during a massive attack was the territory of the International Center for Peacekeeping and Security at the Yavorovsky training ground. The object has already become a target of the Russian Armed Forces more than once; at least two effective defeats are known, on March 13, 2022 and November 3, 2023 .
Today's attack on the Yavorovsky training ground took place in several stages. First, the strikes were carried out by strategic cruise missiles; at least three managed to break through to the target.
Two hours after the end of the massive strike, when the enemy lost his vigilance, several MiG-31Ks launched Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, which controlled the target.
*with a high degree of probability in the video published today - the moment of the control strike.
Based on the available data, the cruise missiles caused damage exclusively to the equipment that was located on the territory of the test site and among which the majority were NATO military equipment are known to have been destroyed . The main defeat was inflicted by Kinzhal missiles, which hit the sites of night strikes. Enemy servicemen were engaged in liquidating the consequences of the defeat at the time of the control attack.
As a result of the strike, about 100 people are known to have been killed or wounded. Some of which, at least 30, are foreign mercenaries from France , Poland , Germany and Britain . What functions they performed and what the purpose of their stay at the site requires no comment.
This strike once again confirms the previously expressed opinion - while there are political disputes and debates about the entry of Western troops or some coalition continent into the territory of Ukraine, NATO soldiers are already there for arms control, intelligence operations and training of Ukrainian forces.
And what kind of disputes there can be is a rhetorical question.
Colonelcassad
Удар по Яворовскому полигону во Львовской области Ещё одной пораженной целью во Львовской области в ходе массированной атаки стала территории Международного центра миротворчества и безопасности на Яворовском полигоне. Объект уже не раз становился целью ВС РФ, известно о минимум двух...
t.me
Google Translator is your friend.
von Koehler
Has No Life - Lives on TB
That's why Ukraine is attacking Russia's oil refineries.
You have to give credit to the Western PR firms - No NG for Germany - not a problem - we were planning to get off it anyway.
I am sure there is NO relation to these two events!
KYIV, March 17 (Reuters) - Ukraine said on Sunday it does not plan to prolong a five-year deal with Russia's Gazprom (GAZP.MM), opens new tab on the transit of Russian gas to Europe or to sign another one.
reneweconomy.com.au
The German government has kickstarted the planning for a gradual decommissioning of the country’s gas distribution network in order to organise a smooth transition to climate-neutral heating for consumers and operators.
I am sure there is NO relation to these two events!
Ukraine has no plan to extend Russian gas transit deal
https://www.reuters.com/business/en...n-extend-russian-gas-transit-deal-2024-03-17/KYIV, March 17 (Reuters) - Ukraine said on Sunday it does not plan to prolong a five-year deal with Russia's Gazprom (GAZP.MM), opens new tab on the transit of Russian gas to Europe or to sign another one.
Germany kickstarts plans to dismantle gas distribution network
Germany kickstarts plans to dismantle gas distribution network
Germany issues green paper for the decommissioning of the country’s gas distribution network to smooth transition to climate-neutral heating.
reneweconomy.com.au
Lightning Missile Strike On Kyiv. Second Stage Of The Avdiivka Offensive.
Latest updates (14 min)This is the most concise explanation of the differences between the attritional war which Russia has chosen to implement - which focuses on the enemy's destruction, and the combat maneuver type of warfare favored by the US and NATO which focuses on the capture of terrain. The fact that attritional warfare boils down to industrial capacity is the real key, and is the reason Russia's forces have steadily increased not only their momentum, but also their advantage. Many thanks to the retired good Colonel Vershinin for such an explanation.
Ukraine has been forced into scattered attacks of terrorizing Russian civilians and cities away from the front lines. As it always has, Russia will adapt and neutralize it, and will probably work to remove Ukraine's military and intelligence leadership. The attack yesterday on the intelligence HQ in Kiev is just the first example, I think. (Nothing has been said yet but - as I mentioned in an earlier post - Budanov, Danilov, Yermak may not be long for this world.)
The concert massacre in Crocus by the 4 alleged Tajik shooters was definitely real, but the 4 shooters headed out of Dodge may have been a rabbit trail. It seems just a bit too obvious to think that they would jump back in the same car in the same clothes, and head south. Definitely not ISIS fingerprints, especially with the US jumping up and hollering ISIS ISIS ISIS so quickly after the event. We'll see what the FSB boys have come up with in a week or three.
It's never a very good idea to lip off to a group of Russian policeman.
View: https://twitter.com/Megatron_ron/status/1772314844793864666
View: https://twitter.com/Megatron_ron/status/1772314844793864666
wait-n-see
Veteran Member
I would hazard a guess that they are not celebrating now, and are instead in extreme mourning.
They will be very lucky if they escape jail, or possibly even prison time.
.
Yes Excellent Information - don't know much more about him but only getting to Lt Col - well you only get a full bird and Stars IF you push the correct narrative. From the article it is clear he has done an objective and comprehensive study of these two different ways of fighting wars. Would be interesting if he (likely) ever got a chance to war game the two methods. From the article it appears he did.
In the Ukrainian "Counter Offensive" over and over again we were told the reason it failed is the Ukrainian Army failed to implement the "superior" maneuver type of warfare NATO trained them in. Naturally it is not clear how they could have followed the process without Air Dominance or an Air Force of any kind. Still it appears they did attempt the NATO method early on - paid a high price - and then went back to the "backward" Soviet style of attritional fighting - commenting over and over again that the NATO trainers had no clue as to how this war was being fought - it is very likely NATO still does not understand.
The bottom line for Ukraine is that it is impossible for them to use NATO methods without Air Dominance (a few F-16's or homemade drones won't make the difference) And falling back to attritional methods - they do not have the depth of men, ammo, armor, air that Russia has (even with NATO support) Effectively there is NO way for Ukraine to come out on top. Only question is will they pull the EU and US into this mess.
On the 4 "ISIS" shooters - my guess they were only part of the plan and expendable - effectively a distraction and blocking force.
The nature of the fire and how it started is key. These 4 appear to have had the main role of keeping people in the building by blocking the exits. Likely the fire was designed / planned to kill thousands blocked inside.
There will be more information in the weeks to come. The only question - CIA, MI6, "Nationalist" or some mix.
A tidbit picked up on the American Partisan aggregate. I've not seen anything from this Armchair Warlord contributor, though his information seems solid. It jives with what Andrei Martyanov has taught us about the Russian missile developments through recent years.
<3 minutes from Crimea to Kiev - whew! And fools are blubbering all over themselves about Russian tactical nukes - which the Russians have never publicly discussed, by the way - and completely dismissing these weapons. There's absolutely no reason that Russia would have to go nuclear onto Europe with these in the quiver.
Armchair Warlord
@ArmchairW
The Russians hit Kiev with hypersonics again today, destroying (according to reports) an SBU-associated bunker and Patriot launchers at Zhulyany airport. What's noteworthy is that they used surface-fired Zircon scramjet cruise missiles to do it - a new type of hypersonic weapon. Kinzhal is a fairly simple weapon based on technology that is well-understood in the West (even if we lack the ability to currently replicate it due to the ongoing competency crisis). This is new technology that Western establishments have never been able to make function outside of a purely experimental regimen (and even then with great difficulty), and the Russians are firing these missiles operationally. (Ukrainian propagandists are passing around pictures allegedly of a Zircon engine section to claim one was shot down, which shouldn't be taken seriously - scramjet engines are basically solid blocks of metal and it would make sense that a missile targeting an air defense battery would be fuzed to airburst, thus leaving the engine relatively intact. AD sirens only went off in Kiev following the arrivals and I've seen zero reports that AD batteries alerted or attempted to engage.)
<3 minutes from Crimea to Kiev - whew! And fools are blubbering all over themselves about Russian tactical nukes - which the Russians have never publicly discussed, by the way - and completely dismissing these weapons. There's absolutely no reason that Russia would have to go nuclear onto Europe with these in the quiver.
Armchair Warlord
@ArmchairW
The Russians hit Kiev with hypersonics again today, destroying (according to reports) an SBU-associated bunker and Patriot launchers at Zhulyany airport. What's noteworthy is that they used surface-fired Zircon scramjet cruise missiles to do it - a new type of hypersonic weapon. Kinzhal is a fairly simple weapon based on technology that is well-understood in the West (even if we lack the ability to currently replicate it due to the ongoing competency crisis). This is new technology that Western establishments have never been able to make function outside of a purely experimental regimen (and even then with great difficulty), and the Russians are firing these missiles operationally. (Ukrainian propagandists are passing around pictures allegedly of a Zircon engine section to claim one was shot down, which shouldn't be taken seriously - scramjet engines are basically solid blocks of metal and it would make sense that a missile targeting an air defense battery would be fuzed to airburst, thus leaving the engine relatively intact. AD sirens only went off in Kiev following the arrivals and I've seen zero reports that AD batteries alerted or attempted to engage.)
You have to give credit to the Western PR firms - No NG for Germany - not a problem - we were planning to get off it anyway.
I am sure there is NO relation to these two events!
Ukraine has no plan to extend Russian gas transit deal
https://www.reuters.com/business/en...n-extend-russian-gas-transit-deal-2024-03-17/
KYIV, March 17 (Reuters) - Ukraine said on Sunday it does not plan to prolong a five-year deal with Russia's Gazprom (GAZP.MM), opens new tab on the transit of Russian gas to Europe or to sign another one.
Germany kickstarts plans to dismantle gas distribution network
The German government has kickstarted the planning for a gradual decommissioning of the country’s gas distribution network in order to organise a smooth transition to climate-neutral heating for consumers and operators.Germany kickstarts plans to dismantle gas distribution network
Germany issues green paper for the decommissioning of the country’s gas distribution network to smooth transition to climate-neutral heating.
The German Greens are going to have a lot of explaining to do when everyone is freezing in their homes, if they have one, and are unemployed....
Hummm......
Posted for fair use.........
asiatimes.com
UKRAINE WAR
By DAVID P GOLDMAN MARCH 25, 2024
Somewhere last weekend a few dozen former Cabinet members, senior military officers, academics and think tank analysts met to evaluate the world military situation.
I can say that I haven’t been so scared since the fall of 1983, when I was a junior contract researcher doing odd jobs for then Special Assistant to the President Norman A Bailey at the National Security Council. That was the peak of the Cold War and the too-realistic Able Archer 83 exercise nearly set off a nuclear war.
Now, the US foreign policy establishment has staked its credibility on humiliating Russia by pushing NATO’s borders to within a few hundred kilometers of Moscow, while crushing Moscow’s economy through sanctions.
It has pulled every chit it has with European governments, mobilizing its legion of journalists, think tankers and stipended politicians to promote the Ukrainian proxy war, with the intent of degrading Russia’s armed forces and ultimately forcing regime change in Russia.
The messaging from the most distinguished participants – former Cabinet members with defense and national security portfolios – is that NATO is still determined to win at any cost. “The question is whether Russia can generate strategic reserves,” one rapporteur said, “Its officer corps is at 50% strength and it has no depth of non-commissioned officers.”
“The Russians are taking massive losses of 25,000 to 30,000 a month,” the former official added. “They can’t sustain the will to fight on the battlefield. The Russians are close to a breaking point. Can they sustain their national will? Not if the rigged election [of Vladimir Putin this month] was any indication. Their economy has real vulnerability. We need to redouble sanctions and financial interdiction of supplies getting to Russia. The Russians have a Potemkin portrayal of strength.”
All the above is demonstrably false and known to be false by the rapporteur in question. The notion that Russia is taking 25,000 to 30,000 casualties a month is ludicrous. Artillery accounts for about 70% of casualties on both sides and by every estimate Russia is firing five or ten times as many shells as Ukraine. Russia has carefully avoided frontal assaults to preserve manpower.
The most important fact about Putin’s re-election is that 88% of Russians voted, a much higher turnout than in any Western democracy. Russians may not have had much choice of candidate but they had a choice of voting or not. The massive turnout is consistent with Putin’s 85% approval rating according to the independent Levada poll.
Putin’s Approval or Disapproval Rating in the Levada Poll. Source: Statista
Instead of collapsing, Russia has become the focal point for a reorganization of global supply chains and their financing, and its economy is growing, rather than shrinking by half, as President Biden promised in March 2022.
Ukraine is running out of soldiers and can’t agree on a new conscription law. One prominent military historian expostulated, “Everywhere you go in Ukraine you see young men hanging around and not in uniform! Ukraine refuses to go all in.”
Russia produces anywhere between four and seven times more artillery shells than Ukraine. Ukraine’s air defenses are exhausted as its old Soviet-era anti-aircraft missiles have been fired and NATO’s stocks of Patriot missiles are dwindling.
Russia has an inexhaustible supply of Soviet-era large bombs fitted with cheap guidance systems, fired accurately at Ukrainian targets from Russian aircraft standing 60 miles (96.5 kilometers) off. With five times Ukraine’s population, Russia is winning the war of attrition.
Another rapporteur at the weekend meeting denounced Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz and other European leaders for worrying too much about the “nuclear threshold” – the point of escalation after which Russia might use nuclear weapons. He demanded that Germany supply its long-range Taurus cruise missile to Ukraine, with a 1,000-kilometer range and a two-stage warhead suitable for destroying major infrastructure.
Senior German air force officers last month discussed using 20 of the Taurus missiles to destroy the Kerch Bridge linking Crimea to the Russian mainland, in a conversation covertly recorded and published by Russian media. The conversation also revealed the presence of hundreds of British and other NATO personnel on the ground in Ukraine.
Taking the war to Russia’s homeland and destroying major infrastructure is one way to transform the proxy war with Ukraine into a general European war. Another is to deploy NATO soldiers in Ukraine, something that French President Emmanuel Macron has broached (but almost certainly does not intend to do).
Remarkably, not a word was said about a possible negotiated solution to the conflict. Any negotiated outcome at this juncture would award Russia the Eastern Ukrainian oblasts that it has annexed and probably give Russia a buffer zone reaching to the east bank of the Dnieper River – followed by a normalization of economic relations with Western Europe.
Russia would emerge triumphant and American assets in Western Europe would be degraded. The impact on America’s world standing would be devastating: As several attendees observed, Taiwan is watching carefully to see what happens to American proxies.
The rules of the meeting prevent me from saying much more but I am free to report what I told the gathering: Sanctions against Russia have failed miserably because Russia had access to unlimited amounts of Chinese (as well as Indian and other) imports, both directly and through a host of intermediaries including Turkey and the former Soviet republics.
But Russia’s economic resilience in the face of supposedly devastating sanctions is only one reflection of a great transformation of world trade. China’s exports to the Global South doubled during the past three years and China now exports more to the South than to developed markets. China’s unprecedented exporting success, in turn, stems from the rapid automation of Chinese industry, which now installs more industrial robots per year than the rest of the world combined.
This is evident, I added, in China’s newfound dominance in the world automotive market but it also has critical military implications. China claims that it has automated plants that can make 1,000 cruise missiles a day—not impossible given that it can manufacture 1,000 EVs a day, or thousands of 5G base stations.
The implication is that China can produce the equivalent of America’s inventory of 4,000 cruise missiles in a week while American defense contractors take years to assemble them by hand.
No one disputed the data I presented. And no one believed that Russia is taking 25,000 casualties a month. Facts weren’t the issue: The assembled dignitaries, a representative sampling of the foreign policy establishment’s intellectual and executive leadership, simply couldn’t imagine a world in which America no longer gave the orders.
They are accustomed to running things and they will gamble the world away to keep their position.
Follow David P Goldman on X, formerly Twitter, at @davidpgoldman
Comments:
Posted for fair use.........
America has no Ukraine Plan B except more war - Asia Times
Somewhere last weekend a few dozen former Cabinet members, senior military officers, academics and think tank analysts met to evaluate the world military
asiatimes.com
UKRAINE WAR
America has no Ukraine Plan B except more war
US foreign policy establishment blindly intent on beating Russia on the battlefield and crushing its economy. Neither will happenBy DAVID P GOLDMAN MARCH 25, 2024
Somewhere last weekend a few dozen former Cabinet members, senior military officers, academics and think tank analysts met to evaluate the world military situation.
I can say that I haven’t been so scared since the fall of 1983, when I was a junior contract researcher doing odd jobs for then Special Assistant to the President Norman A Bailey at the National Security Council. That was the peak of the Cold War and the too-realistic Able Archer 83 exercise nearly set off a nuclear war.
Now, the US foreign policy establishment has staked its credibility on humiliating Russia by pushing NATO’s borders to within a few hundred kilometers of Moscow, while crushing Moscow’s economy through sanctions.
It has pulled every chit it has with European governments, mobilizing its legion of journalists, think tankers and stipended politicians to promote the Ukrainian proxy war, with the intent of degrading Russia’s armed forces and ultimately forcing regime change in Russia.
The messaging from the most distinguished participants – former Cabinet members with defense and national security portfolios – is that NATO is still determined to win at any cost. “The question is whether Russia can generate strategic reserves,” one rapporteur said, “Its officer corps is at 50% strength and it has no depth of non-commissioned officers.”
“The Russians are taking massive losses of 25,000 to 30,000 a month,” the former official added. “They can’t sustain the will to fight on the battlefield. The Russians are close to a breaking point. Can they sustain their national will? Not if the rigged election [of Vladimir Putin this month] was any indication. Their economy has real vulnerability. We need to redouble sanctions and financial interdiction of supplies getting to Russia. The Russians have a Potemkin portrayal of strength.”
All the above is demonstrably false and known to be false by the rapporteur in question. The notion that Russia is taking 25,000 to 30,000 casualties a month is ludicrous. Artillery accounts for about 70% of casualties on both sides and by every estimate Russia is firing five or ten times as many shells as Ukraine. Russia has carefully avoided frontal assaults to preserve manpower.
The most important fact about Putin’s re-election is that 88% of Russians voted, a much higher turnout than in any Western democracy. Russians may not have had much choice of candidate but they had a choice of voting or not. The massive turnout is consistent with Putin’s 85% approval rating according to the independent Levada poll.
Putin’s Approval or Disapproval Rating in the Levada Poll. Source: Statista
Instead of collapsing, Russia has become the focal point for a reorganization of global supply chains and their financing, and its economy is growing, rather than shrinking by half, as President Biden promised in March 2022.
Ukraine is running out of soldiers and can’t agree on a new conscription law. One prominent military historian expostulated, “Everywhere you go in Ukraine you see young men hanging around and not in uniform! Ukraine refuses to go all in.”
Russia produces anywhere between four and seven times more artillery shells than Ukraine. Ukraine’s air defenses are exhausted as its old Soviet-era anti-aircraft missiles have been fired and NATO’s stocks of Patriot missiles are dwindling.
Russia has an inexhaustible supply of Soviet-era large bombs fitted with cheap guidance systems, fired accurately at Ukrainian targets from Russian aircraft standing 60 miles (96.5 kilometers) off. With five times Ukraine’s population, Russia is winning the war of attrition.
Another rapporteur at the weekend meeting denounced Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz and other European leaders for worrying too much about the “nuclear threshold” – the point of escalation after which Russia might use nuclear weapons. He demanded that Germany supply its long-range Taurus cruise missile to Ukraine, with a 1,000-kilometer range and a two-stage warhead suitable for destroying major infrastructure.
Senior German air force officers last month discussed using 20 of the Taurus missiles to destroy the Kerch Bridge linking Crimea to the Russian mainland, in a conversation covertly recorded and published by Russian media. The conversation also revealed the presence of hundreds of British and other NATO personnel on the ground in Ukraine.
Taking the war to Russia’s homeland and destroying major infrastructure is one way to transform the proxy war with Ukraine into a general European war. Another is to deploy NATO soldiers in Ukraine, something that French President Emmanuel Macron has broached (but almost certainly does not intend to do).
Remarkably, not a word was said about a possible negotiated solution to the conflict. Any negotiated outcome at this juncture would award Russia the Eastern Ukrainian oblasts that it has annexed and probably give Russia a buffer zone reaching to the east bank of the Dnieper River – followed by a normalization of economic relations with Western Europe.
Russia would emerge triumphant and American assets in Western Europe would be degraded. The impact on America’s world standing would be devastating: As several attendees observed, Taiwan is watching carefully to see what happens to American proxies.
The rules of the meeting prevent me from saying much more but I am free to report what I told the gathering: Sanctions against Russia have failed miserably because Russia had access to unlimited amounts of Chinese (as well as Indian and other) imports, both directly and through a host of intermediaries including Turkey and the former Soviet republics.
But Russia’s economic resilience in the face of supposedly devastating sanctions is only one reflection of a great transformation of world trade. China’s exports to the Global South doubled during the past three years and China now exports more to the South than to developed markets. China’s unprecedented exporting success, in turn, stems from the rapid automation of Chinese industry, which now installs more industrial robots per year than the rest of the world combined.
This is evident, I added, in China’s newfound dominance in the world automotive market but it also has critical military implications. China claims that it has automated plants that can make 1,000 cruise missiles a day—not impossible given that it can manufacture 1,000 EVs a day, or thousands of 5G base stations.
The implication is that China can produce the equivalent of America’s inventory of 4,000 cruise missiles in a week while American defense contractors take years to assemble them by hand.
No one disputed the data I presented. And no one believed that Russia is taking 25,000 casualties a month. Facts weren’t the issue: The assembled dignitaries, a representative sampling of the foreign policy establishment’s intellectual and executive leadership, simply couldn’t imagine a world in which America no longer gave the orders.
They are accustomed to running things and they will gamble the world away to keep their position.
Follow David P Goldman on X, formerly Twitter, at @davidpgoldman
Comments:
- The Cat is a Hatsays:
March 26, 2024 at 7:15 AM
Looking at this war objectively, there are coarsely granular similarities between it and WW2. Firstly, Russia invades a neighbouring country, last time Poland. Secondly, Russia receives a whipping, last time Operation Barbarossa, this time Ukraine’s counter offensives of 2022. Thirdly, Russia holds the line, last time Stalingrad and Kursk, this time Ukraine’s thwarted counteroffensive of 2023. Fourthly, Russia goes over to the offensive this year.
Because this is a war of industrial production, any calculation of Russia’s ability has to factor in the output of Belarus, China, Iran and North Korea. China won’t send any finished weapons, however, only technology. North Korea in particular has an outsized armaments industry due to their policy of self sufficiency, Juche. The Ukraine War has solved their problem of food insecurity, they will get Russian produce in exchange for military goods. The more they produce the better they eat.
This war is a harbinger of Apocalypse. Unwillingness to negotiate its end is pure folly.
Log in to Reply -
Galen Lindersays:
March 26, 2024 at 4:37 AM
Why was this proxy war engineered? It was engineered by those who believe in their own propaganda. It was engineered by those who thought Russia was a paper tiger. It was engineered by those who thought the world outside of the US/NATO propaganda bubble would accept the absurd narrative about a deranged Putin planning to seize Europe starting with Ukraine. They thought they had all these small countries over which they had the power to line up and be counted. They thought they had India! Now it is known that these same people continually wrecked the peace negotiations. Now hundreds of thousands are dead, Ukraine is a wreck and it is all their fault!! These people need to be in the dock.
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Edwin Lindgrensays:
March 26, 2024 at 1:20 AM
During the 20th Century, three U.S. presidents (all Democrats) who were running for re-election swore up and down to the voters that they would not sent American ‘boys’ to fight in ongoing overseas wars. They were Wilson in 1916, FDR in 1940 and LBJ in 1964. Following their re-election victories, all three sent U.S. troops into battle.
Biden has repeatedly stated no U.S. boots on the ground in Ukraine (or at least none that will be acknowledged). He has also mumbled repeatedly that “Putin must not win.” I have no doubt that if Biden manages to get re-elected in November, he will double down on US/NATO support for Ukraine. What form this will take remains to be seen, but negotiations with the Russians will not be an option.
A final thought. As Mr. Goldman makes clear, America’s “intellectual and executive leadership” have no intention of losing this war. If nuclear weapons are eventually used within the Ukraine battlespace, it will be the US/NATO who will use them first.
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northernguysays:
March 26, 2024 at 12:56 AM
The author says the Taurus cruise missile has a range of two thousand miles. Absolutely everything I have read says that its range is about three hundred miles max.
NATO is not geared to fight a war with a near peer. Even if all their super duper weapons performed as originally claimed to be capable of when operating in Ukrainian conditions, it just doesn’t have enough to make a difference. And they don’t actually perform as advertised despite their extreme cost.
Log in to Reply -
Tony Jisays:
March 25, 2024 at 1:00 PM
no one will listen, they had all gone war crazy and in denial of reality.
Tom McDowell
BAMN
In Blob We Trust
March 25, 2024“In terms of the Moscow terror attack, the fact that those who carried out the attack were captured is now causing a huge headache for those who were ultimately responsible.” — The Sirius Report on “X”
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You’ve got to ask yourself: really, who seems to hanker more for a red-hot World War Three, “Joe Biden” or Vlad Putin? Since “Joe Biden” is only a figment of American politics, first you’d have to ask: a figment of what? Answer: A figment of our greater intel blob, led, of course, by the Central Intelligence Agency. Which is to say, the blob is our government now; there is no government except the blob. We are the United Blob of America! In Blob We Trust should be printed on our money.
That being the case, blob policy rules. And since deception is one of the blob’s chief duties, we mere sniveling citizens should expect to be deceived at every turn about everything. So, when the blob’s news cut-out, The New York Times, serves up a comprehensive history of the gang known as ISIS-K Monday morning after the Moscow Crocus Concert Hall Massacre, you might suspect that some deception is afoot.
ISIS-K immediately took credit for the Crocus Massacre. K stands for Khorasan, a set of provinces in eastern Iran, leaking over into Afghanistan and Pakistan. ISIS-K supposedly evolved out of the original ISIS that sought to establish an Islamic caliphate out of Iraq and Syria. After Mr. Trump broke it up in 2019, the gang regrouped in K-land, deeper in central Asia. Curiously, this ISIS-K has carried out attacks against Iran, where it lives. Go figure. . . . Its progenitor, the plain old ISIS-no-K was responsible for the horrific Bataclan Theater massacre in Paris, 2015 and the suicide bombing of the Ariana Grande concert at the Manchester Arena, UK, 2017. They’re sort of the Concert-Massacres-R-Us of terror orgs — you really couldn’t find a better patsy for the Crocus op.
Is it as simple as that? Not if you consider Scott Ritter’s theory that the first ISIS was a creation of the CIA, with the mission of ousting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, considered by the blob to be an uber-bad dude, largely for enlisting Russia’s help in ending Syria’s civil war. And if you can actually figure out what Syria’s civil war was about, other than a US blob op to gain control of Syria and its oil, you could win a MacArthur Genius Prize. But you might also ask: did the United Blob of America hire ISIS-K to slaughter 137 Russian civilians Saturday night? And also: did it do so directly or indirectly, through cut-outs?
One blob weakness is that it can’t resist the impulse to telegraph its plans ahead of some dastardly act. Both “Joe Biden” and State Department war-hawk Victoria Nuland verbally signaled the op to blow-up the Nord Stream gas pipelines well before the act. Before “retiring” (or getting cashiered) from State this month, Ms. Nuland warned Russia to expect “some nasty surprises” in the days ahead. Was she fired for opening her big mouth? Now, a photograph has surfaced of one of the captured Crocus perps, Shamsidin Fariduni, posing in the Crocus concert hall date-stamped March 7. A set-up? A deep fake?
In any case, on March 8 the United Blob State Department issued a warning to Russia’s foreign ministry that something wicked was coming their way, and likewise warned our diplomatic personnel to steer clear of concert halls and other public venues. Was the Crocus op already well in motion? And was the blob trying to cover for Ms. Nuland’s big mouth by warning about something that was too late to stop?
Whatever else you think about the Russians, they are not dumb bunnies. You can be sure they are carefully putting together the puzzle pieces, having already been careful to take the suspects alive. They were, incidentally, all in one car driving toward the Ukraine border when apprehended by Russian police. That is being considered “a clue” as to who their handlers are. But then, who is Ukraine’s handler? (Cue: thinking music.)
Shooter Shamsidin Fariduni
At least one of them — Fariduni — confessed that his gang received all their instructions over a Telegram social media channel. The gang, by the way, were all natives of Tajikistan, a former Soviet republic. Its population is 98 percent Muslim, around 97 percent of them Sunni and 3 percent Shia. Neighboring Iran is militantly Shia, for what it’s worth. The four Crocus perps were living as immigrant workers in Russia. How hard would it be to track who was the proprietor of the alleged Telegram messaging site that offered payment and sent orders to the perps? I’m guessing that would not be so difficult.
The United Blob sent lavish condolences to President Putin on Sunday. We’re so sorry. . . boo-hoo. . . . The directorate of the CIA was awash in crocodile tears, I’m sure. Russia was already busy answering Ukraine’s attempted Belgorod incursion of the previous week by turning off the lights in Kharkov. Meanwhile, Polish, French, and German regular army troops have moved directly by rail and air inside Ukraine to Cherkassy, south of Kiev. The mental defectives running Poland, France, and Germany seem avid for NATO to jump with both feet into ground action in Ukraine, that is, go directly to war with Russia. It’s hard to imagine an act with a potentially worse outcome for NATO, for Europe, and, by extension, for Western Civ. Despite all their posturing, Euroland’s armies could not be less prepared to go up against Russia on the Ukraine battlefield, and are therefore begging for an epic ass-kicking. They’ve already sacrificed their industrial economies at the United Blob’s bidding, so why not just get Europe’s ticket punched for an express trip back to the 11th century?
How about “Joe Biden,” front-man for the United Blob of America? What’s in it for “him?” We might surmise that the “Joe Biden” re-election campaign seeks a big, fat, juicy major distraction from its so-far pathetic effort to keep a near-mummy in the White House. Well, how about that World War they’ve been itchin’ for? Plus, they probably calculate, it’d be great for business! Besides, considering the poll numbers, this might just be the blob’s last stand, since they know as soon as Mr. Trump gets back in the White House (if the blob can’t manage to kill him first) the words “You’re fired!” will echo so thunderously between Foggy Bottom and Judiciary Square that every last critter in the DC Swamp will light out for the territories to avoid the prosecutions sure to follow.
====
Meanwhile, Polish, French, and German regular army troops have moved directly by rail and air inside Ukraine to Cherkassy, south of Kiev. ???
===
.
Tom McDowell
BAMN
RT 5:31 / 5:31
VIPS: Alert Memo to Pres. Joe Biden : Nuclear Conflict Warning
Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom
325K subscribers
Mar 25, 2024
This video is a voice translation of a memo sent to President Joe Biden from V.I.P.S. ( Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity )
"France could be leading the American people down a path toward a nuclear conflict decidedly not in the interests of the American people – or of humanity itself, VIPS warns President Joe Biden."
Signed By:
VETERAN INTELLIGENCE PROFESSIONALS FOR SANITY
• William Binney, former Technical Director, World Geopolitical & Military Analysis, NSA; co-founder, SIGINT Automation Research Center (ret.)
• Marshall Carter-Tripp, Foreign Service Officer (ret) and former Office Director in the State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research
• Bogdan Dzakovic, former Team Leader of Federal Air Marshals and Red Team, FAA Security, (ret.) (associate VIPS)
• Graham E. Fuller, Vice-Chair, National Intelligence Council (ret.)
• Philip Giraldi, C.I.A., Operations Officer (ret.)
• Matthew Hoh, former Capt., USMC, Iraq and Foreign Service Officer, Afghanistan (associate VIPS)
• James George Jatras, former U.S. diplomat and former foreign policy adviser to Senate leadership (Associate VIPS)
• Larry C. Johnson, former C.I.A. and State Department Counter Terrorism officer
• John Kiriakou, former C.I.A. Counterterrorism Officer and former senior investigator, Senate Foreign Relations Committee
• Karen Kwiatkowski, former Lt. Col., U.S. Air Force (ret.), at Office of Secretary of Defense watching the manufacture of lies on Iraq, 2001-2003
• Douglas Macgregor, Colonel, USA (ret.) (associate VIPS)
• Ray McGovern, former U.S. Army infantry/intelligence officer & C.I.A. analyst; C.I.A. Presidential briefer (ret.)
• Elizabeth Murray, former Deputy National Intelligence Officer for the Near East, National Intelligence Council & C.I.A. political analyst (ret.)
• Todd E. Pierce, MAJ, U.S. Army Judge Advocate (ret.)
• Pedro Israel Orta, former C.I.A. and Intelligence Community (Inspector General) officer
• Scott Ritter, former MAJ, USMC; former U.N. Weapons Inspector, Iraq
• Coleen Rowley, FBI Special Agent and former Minneapolis Division Legal Counsel (ret.)
• Lawrence Wilkerson, Colonel USA, ret.), Distinguished Visiting Professor, College of William and Mary (associate VIPS)
• Sarah G. Wilton, CDR, USNR, (ret.); Defense Intelligence Agency (ret.)
• Kirk Wiebe, former Senior Analyst, SIGINT Automation Research Center, NSA
• Robert Wing, former Foreign Service Officer (associate VIPS)
• Ann Wright, retired U.S. Army reserve colonel and former U.S. diplomat who resigned in 2003 in opposition to the Iraq War
===
.
jward
passin' thru
NEXTA
@nexta_tv
#France could clash directly with #Russia if the Ukrainian front collapses - LCI TV channel has published a number of possible scenarios for sending French soldiers to #Ukraine
First: construction of military factories in Ukraine under the supervision of French engineers.
Second: the French military carries out demining and training of the #AFU.
Third: defense of #Odesa, where the French may be involved in installing an air defense system, which already means direct participation in the conflict as an ally of #Kyiv.
Fourth: creation of a defense zone, where the military will take over some of the tasks of the Ukrainian army.
Fifth: direct participation in hostilities against Russian troops on the side of Ukraine, which could lead to World War III.
Journalists emphasized scenarios 4 and 5 "can only be considered if the Ukrainian front collapses. This is World War III."
@nexta_tv
#France could clash directly with #Russia if the Ukrainian front collapses - LCI TV channel has published a number of possible scenarios for sending French soldiers to #Ukraine
First: construction of military factories in Ukraine under the supervision of French engineers. Second: the French military carries out demining and training of the #AFU. Third: defense of #Odesa, where the French may be involved in installing an air defense system, which already means direct participation in the conflict as an ally of #Kyiv. Fourth: creation of a defense zone, where the military will take over some of the tasks of the Ukrainian army. Fifth: direct participation in hostilities against Russian troops on the side of Ukraine, which could lead to World War III. Journalists emphasized scenarios 4 and 5 "can only be considered if the Ukrainian front collapses. This is World War III."
jward
passin' thru
Deborah Haynes
@haynesdeborah
·
BREAKING: Britain’s outgoing armed forces minister, @JSHeappey, has called for defence spending to be increased “urgently” to 2.5% of national income and potentially boosted even higher after the election. 1/
In comments that will put pressure on the prime minister, James Heappey told MPs that the urgent uplift in spending could happen because the economy was improving.
Rishi Sunak has said a target to raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP from just over 2% presently would only happen once the economic conditions allow.
The Armed Forces Minister was speaking at defence questions in parliament – likely his last appearance as a government minister after he announced last week that he would be stepping back from the role and resigning as an MP at the election.
He repeated comments by Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, that the UK was in a “pre-war world” with a range of threats and challenges, including Russia’s war in Ukraine that required a greater investment in the army, Royal Navy and Royal Air Force.
Armed Forces Minister @JSHeappey told MPs: “2.5% of GDP should be achieved urgently. The fiscal situation is improving and this party has made that commitment.”
Drawing on previous comments by the defence secretary, he also pushed for increased expenditure on the military going forwards.
“Both parties should be strongly considering a further increase in defence spending in the next parliament,” he said. 7/7
@haynesdeborah
·
BREAKING: Britain’s outgoing armed forces minister, @JSHeappey, has called for defence spending to be increased “urgently” to 2.5% of national income and potentially boosted even higher after the election. 1/
In comments that will put pressure on the prime minister, James Heappey told MPs that the urgent uplift in spending could happen because the economy was improving.
Rishi Sunak has said a target to raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP from just over 2% presently would only happen once the economic conditions allow.
The Armed Forces Minister was speaking at defence questions in parliament – likely his last appearance as a government minister after he announced last week that he would be stepping back from the role and resigning as an MP at the election.
He repeated comments by Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, that the UK was in a “pre-war world” with a range of threats and challenges, including Russia’s war in Ukraine that required a greater investment in the army, Royal Navy and Royal Air Force.
Armed Forces Minister @JSHeappey told MPs: “2.5% of GDP should be achieved urgently. The fiscal situation is improving and this party has made that commitment.”
Drawing on previous comments by the defence secretary, he also pushed for increased expenditure on the military going forwards.
“Both parties should be strongly considering a further increase in defence spending in the next parliament,” he said. 7/7
jward
passin' thru
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
The Russian Armed Forces launched a Surprise Ballistic Missile Attack earlier today utilizing what is believed to have been 2 New Variant of Hypersonic Missile against the Government Quarter in the Ukrainian Capital of Kyiv, with both of the Missiles claimed to have been Downed by Air Defenses causing Damage to several Residential Buildings in the City; there were No Air Raid Alerts sounded prior to the Attack due to both of the Missiles, which were launched from either in or over Crimea, having Traveled at over Mach 6 or at least 4,000 mph.
@sentdefender
The Russian Armed Forces launched a Surprise Ballistic Missile Attack earlier today utilizing what is believed to have been 2 New Variant of Hypersonic Missile against the Government Quarter in the Ukrainian Capital of Kyiv, with both of the Missiles claimed to have been Downed by Air Defenses causing Damage to several Residential Buildings in the City; there were No Air Raid Alerts sounded prior to the Attack due to both of the Missiles, which were launched from either in or over Crimea, having Traveled at over Mach 6 or at least 4,000 mph.
Cedar Lake
Connecticut Yankee
SBU Day in Kiev,
#UkraineRussiaWar
Something incredible happened this morning. With a lightning strike using the latest complex of hypersonic weapons, the Russians inflicted a crushing defeat on the command of the Security Council of Ukraine (SBU) and the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR). Also during the strike, two Patriot air defense systems were destroyed.
It turns out that Ukraine is celebrating a holiday today - SBU Day. It turns out that the Russians congratulated them the best.
The Bloom | Retreat From Bohdanivka | Two Patriots Were Destroyed In Kyiv. Military Summary 2024.3.25
Geroman
#UkraineRussiaWar Something incredible happened this morning. With a lightning strike using the latest complex of hypersonic weapons, the Russians inflicted a crushing defeat on the command of the Security Council of Ukraine (SBU) and the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR). Also during the...
t.me
Google Translator is your friend.
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If I lived in Germany I would be collecting every bit of wood I could find. Pallets and scraps if I couldn’t get cordwood. Get a small wood stove and figure out how to pipe it. Maybe get a couple of those Chinese diesel heaters and start storing diesel back. Get some good quality warm clothes and blankets.You have to give credit to the Western PR firms - No NG for Germany - not a problem - we were planning to get off it anyway.
I am sure there is NO relation to these two events!
Ukraine has no plan to extend Russian gas transit deal
https://www.reuters.com/business/en...n-extend-russian-gas-transit-deal-2024-03-17/
KYIV, March 17 (Reuters) - Ukraine said on Sunday it does not plan to prolong a five-year deal with Russia's Gazprom (GAZP.MM), opens new tab on the transit of Russian gas to Europe or to sign another one.
Germany kickstarts plans to dismantle gas distribution network
The German government has kickstarted the planning for a gradual decommissioning of the country’s gas distribution network in order to organise a smooth transition to climate-neutral heating for consumers and operators.Germany kickstarts plans to dismantle gas distribution network
Germany issues green paper for the decommissioning of the country’s gas distribution network to smooth transition to climate-neutral heating.
Cedar Lake
Connecticut Yankee
Kiev: Destruction of high-ranking SBU officials...?
Indirect confirmation that the strike hit the spot and that someone very important from the country’s military leadership was eliminated is the fact that so far the Kiev mayor’s office has reported only 5 wounded during the strike.
Meanwhile, we see that the explosion literally dug a “hole” where a high-rise building with a "civil defense” center used to be (according to the map).
As to who was actually destroyed during the strike, I think we will gradually find out from the obituaries of colonels and generals who suddenly died in road accidents, from heart attacks or any number of other reasons.
We shall wait...
For reference: As part of the SBU (Kiev media believe that it was the building in which the SBU officers worked that was hit), the 5th department of the Counterintelligence Department was responsible for terrorism on Russian territory. The operations themselves are carried out and planned by a separate division for sabotage within the Special Operations Center [ЦСО] “A”.
Hmmm......other Telegram sources have also mentioned British overseers.
We shall see.
t.me
Indirect confirmation that the strike hit the spot and that someone very important from the country’s military leadership was eliminated is the fact that so far the Kiev mayor’s office has reported only 5 wounded during the strike.
Meanwhile, we see that the explosion literally dug a “hole” where a high-rise building with a "civil defense” center used to be (according to the map).
As to who was actually destroyed during the strike, I think we will gradually find out from the obituaries of colonels and generals who suddenly died in road accidents, from heart attacks or any number of other reasons.
We shall wait...
For reference: As part of the SBU (Kiev media believe that it was the building in which the SBU officers worked that was hit), the 5th department of the Counterintelligence Department was responsible for terrorism on Russian territory. The operations themselves are carried out and planned by a separate division for sabotage within the Special Operations Center [ЦСО] “A”.
Hmmm......other Telegram sources have also mentioned British overseers.
We shall see.
Analyst Intel
Kiev: Destruction of high-ranking SBU officials...? Indirect confirmation that the strike hit the spot and that someone very important from the country’s military leadership was eliminated is the fact that so far the Kiev mayor’s office has reported only 5 wounded during the strike. Meanwhile...
t.me
jward
passin' thru
but it's illegal to collect wood-
and how long might it be that buying even the legal fuel is dependent upon your social credit score, I wonder
Cedar Lake
Connecticut Yankee
I read a couple great articles on this German newspaper about wood burning there. German rules, etc., trying to restrict it.
Cordwood being sold was pine, in one article.
Germany has the E.u. view, whole different viewpoint, most will be cold.
Did you know that 90% of the housing units there were built to use cheap abundant natural gas as the fuel source.
Good solid source of German news & info.
Google Translator is your friend.
Aktuelle News aus Politik, Wirtschaft, Kultur & mehr | Merkur.de
Auf Merkur.de lesen Sie aktuelle Nachrichten & Meldungen aus aller Welt: Von Politik über Wirtschaft zu Verbraucher & Sport. Jetzt informieren!
www.merkur.de
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From all the "leaks" it is becoming clear that this plan is well in the works.NEXTA
@nexta_tv
#France could clash directly with #Russia if the Ukrainian front collapses - LCI TV channel has published a number of possible scenarios for sending French soldiers to #Ukraine
Journalists emphasized scenarios 4 and 5 "can only be considered if the Ukrainian front collapses. This is World War III."
Been a quite a few others talking about Odesa - France has a long history with that city - and it is becoming clear that may be the key objective for both Russia and NATO.
As for points 4 and 5 - well the Ukrainian front is already in the process of collapse - slow but steady advances with Ukraine having fewer fortified positions to fall back to. If France wants to jump in - better hurry up.
Global Warming - the gift that keeps a smile on politicians faces.I read a couple great articles on this German newspaper about wood burning there. German rules, etc., trying to restrict it.
Cordwood being sold was pine, in one article.
Germany has the E.u. view, whole different viewpoint, most will be cold.
Did you know that 90% of the housing units there were built to use cheap abundant natural gas as the fuel source.
Good solid source of German news & info.
Google Translator is your friend.
Aktuelle News aus Politik, Wirtschaft, Kultur & mehr | Merkur.de
Auf Merkur.de lesen Sie aktuelle Nachrichten & Meldungen aus aller Welt: Von Politik über Wirtschaft zu Verbraucher & Sport. Jetzt informieren!
Whatever new taxes needed, whatever new policies needed, when a "reason" is needed - just pull out the GW card.
Germany is being economically hurt / killed by the shutoff of NG first the NS pipeline and now gas flows going through Ukraine. The US LNG in limited supply and at 3-5x the cost.
Just one Example (posted last year - only down hill since):
BASF is the world’s largest chemicals group and one of the mainstays of German industry, with 157 years at its Ludwigshafen site on the river Rhine near Frankfurt. Now reports they are moving to China and other locations.
BASF to cut 2,600 jobs as energy crisis puts Germany on track for recession
Chemicals company says disruption from Ukraine war, rising costs and inflation will continue this year
www.theguardian.com
“Europe’s competitiveness is increasingly suffering from overregulation, slow and bureaucratic permitting processes, and in particular, high costs for most production input factors,” said Martin Brudermüller, the BASF chief executive.
Brudermüller in April 2022 suggested that moving from Russian gas could “destroy our entire economy”. “It is a fact that Russian gas supplies have so far been the basis for our industry’s competitiveness,” he said, in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
Instead of standing up for their citizens and protecting their key industries - reestablishing trade in their best interest - they SPIN that it is actually ALL GOOD - yes you may no longer have a job - might be a bit cold - food will cost more but it has NOTHING to do with US Policies or fallout from them - we have always planed this Transition to save the planet - you can feel good - standing in the soup line.
wait-n-see
Veteran Member
Ukraine’s F-16s: Too Little, Too Late
Run time - 23:48
Mar 26, 2024
- US-made F-16s will arrive in Ukraine much later than anticipated and in much smaller numbers than expected;
- The Western media has assumed F-16s might help Ukraine bolster its flagging air defenses against both Russian cruise missiles and Russian fighter-bombers dropping stand-off guided glide bombs, but much more likely the handful of aircraft will be used to continue Ukraine’s symbolic air-launched cruise missile strikes;
- The Western media has admitted that air forces transitioning from Soviet-era warplanes to the F-16 can take years to do properly, rushing Ukraine’s transition will result in the same predictable losses of equipment due to ineffective operators that Western main battle tanks transferred to Ukraine suffered;
- Romania has established a “pilot training hub” for NATO and Ukrainian pilots operating F-16 warplanes;
- Following revelations from leaked conversations of German military officers of NATO troops on the ground operating complex Western equipment, there exists the possibility NATO pilots could operate Ukrainian-marked F-16s;
- Russia’s larger number of warplanes and advanced integrated air defense capabilities will prevent small numbers of F-16s from significantly changing the course of the conflict strategically;
References:
New York Times - Ukraine Could Deploy F-16s as Soon as July, but Only a Few (March 11, 2024): https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/11/wo...
Air & Space Forces Magazine - Romania Is a Model for Training Ukraine’s Pilots to Fly F-16s (August 2023): https://www.airandspaceforces.com/rom...
The War Zone - This Is How Long It Would Really Take Ukraine’s Pilots To Convert To F-16s (February 2023): https://www.twz.com/this-is-how-long-...
Reuters - Romania opens F-16 pilot training hub for NATO allies, Ukraine (November 2023): https://www.reuters.com/business/aero...
Guardian - British soldiers ‘on the ground’ in Ukraine, says German military leak (March 4, 2024): https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2...
US Department of Defense Inspector General - Press Release: Evaluation of Sustainment Strategies for the Patriot Air Defense Systems Transferred to the Ukrainian Armed Forces (DODIG-2024-056) and Evaluation of the DoD's Sustainment Plan for Bradley, Stryker, and Abrams Armored Weapon Systems (February 20, 2024): https://www.dodig.mil/In-the-Spotligh...
RAND Corporation - F-16s Are No Magic Bullet for Ukraine, but They Are a Game Changer with the Right Munitions (October 2023): https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/...
The Russians Are Planning An Offensive On Odessa, Kharkov And Zaporozhye.
Again more and more - it appears Odessa is the golden ring everyone wants.Latest updates (16 min)
von Koehler
Has No Life - Lives on TB
3:46 minutes
Another Russian ship damaged. And some further details about previous Ukrainian attacks.
Russians are towing damaged ships to drydock or lashing them to another ship to keep them afloat. Russia is using large tarps to conceal damage from satellite observation .
von Koehler
Has No Life - Lives on TB
The Russians are not worthy opponents but rather just paranoid terrorists who target civilians.
Wars are not won by attacking civilians.
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Kiev: Destruction of high-ranking SBU officials...?
Indirect confirmation that the strike hit the spot and that someone very important from the country’s military leadership was eliminated is the fact that so far the Kiev mayor’s office has reported only 5 wounded during the strike.
Meanwhile, we see that the explosion literally dug a “hole” where a high-rise building with a "civil defense” center used to be (according to the map).
As to who was actually destroyed during the strike, I think we will gradually find out from the obituaries of colonels and generals who suddenly died in road accidents, from heart attacks or any number of other reasons.
We shall wait...
For reference: As part of the SBU (Kiev media believe that it was the building in which the SBU officers worked that was hit), the 5th department of the Counterintelligence Department was responsible for terrorism on Russian territory. The operations themselves are carried out and planned by a separate division for sabotage within the Special Operations Center [ЦСО] “A”.
Hmmm......other Telegram sources have also mentioned British overseers.
We shall see.
Analyst Intel
Kiev: Destruction of high-ranking SBU officials...? Indirect confirmation that the strike hit the spot and that someone very important from the country’s military leadership was eliminated is the fact that so far the Kiev mayor’s office has reported only 5 wounded during the strike. Meanwhile...
Begs the question of the quality if both sides SIGINT, emissions security and degree and success of signals spoofing? And of course all of that is wrapped up in a mix of propaganda too.
Again - where do you get this stuff???
I guess if you consider the 1000 or so Ukrainian troops on the front lines - most of which were civilians only a few days before - that are being loss Each DAY - well then you may be correct.
I guess you could call it terror being a conscripted (at force) civilian now in a dirt trench being hit with glide bombs - you never see or hear - launched from a jet miles away. Yep - sitting in a cold wet trench - never knowing when that bomb will hit and there is nothing you can do about it - good description of terror.
I understand for some this PURE HATE for any and all things Russian exists.
But HATE does not change the reality of what is going on.
Nothing so complex - just low level human intelligence - cleaning crew - local restaurants - a dozen sources of info on what is going on. Besides a good % of the population in these areas are pro Russia. There is not much going on in Ukraine that the Russians do not know about.
von Koehler
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Targeting and bombing apartments is another war crime to be added to Putin's docket.
Cedar Lake
Connecticut Yankee
Donetsk, the gold standard model for Kiev neo-nazis, since 2014.
Standard M.O. for the Western Galacians that run Kiev, since the 1940's, you know.
Civilians are the targets that they go after.
You can watch the 2016 Polish movie "Hatred" about the mass-murders of the Poles in full here, with subtitles:
Hatred (Wolyn) | Full Movie
I don't believe that Putin has lowered himself to the ''GAZA Method''.
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If nothing else the US / NATO is excellent at stretching the concept of how to be a non-combatant with Russia - while actually being one.
t.me
NATO is considering the possibility of shooting down Russian missiles on approach to the borders of the Alliance, - Deputy Foreign Minister of Poland in an interview with RMF24(news)
“But this would have to happen with the consent of the Ukrainian side and taking into account the international consequences - then NATO missiles would hit Russian missiles outside NATO territory,” Andrzej Szejna noted.
According to him, it cannot be that Russia imposes any rules on NATO.
So the new SPIN is as long as the AD missiles that are launched from a NATO nation - hits a Russian missile (aircraft) over Ukraine - then no legal problem. NATO is still not DIRECTLY fighting Russia.
Likely this is being tossed out as a result of the overfly a few days ago when a Russian missile crossed 2000meters into Poland for around 40 sec. That got the headlines - what did not was the target - a Ukrainian air base just 20 miles from the border with Poland. It was reported this base was where the "new" F-16 were being assembled / stored and would be the operational base. Russia hit it several times - cratered the runway and hit several buildings.
If this is / will be the home base for the F-16 then it is clear Ukraine can't protect it - but only 20 miles away Poland thinks they can install AD Systems to cover it - and they will be exempt from a Russian Strike on them as LONG as their AD missiles only hit over Ukraine. Roll the Dice on this one.
DD Geopolitics
NATO is considering the possibility of shooting down Russian missiles on approach to the borders of the Alliance, - Deputy Foreign Minister of Poland in an interview with RMF24 . “But this would have to happen with the consent of the Ukrainian side and taking into account the international...
t.me
NATO is considering the possibility of shooting down Russian missiles on approach to the borders of the Alliance, - Deputy Foreign Minister of Poland in an interview with RMF24(news)
“But this would have to happen with the consent of the Ukrainian side and taking into account the international consequences - then NATO missiles would hit Russian missiles outside NATO territory,” Andrzej Szejna noted.
According to him, it cannot be that Russia imposes any rules on NATO.
So the new SPIN is as long as the AD missiles that are launched from a NATO nation - hits a Russian missile (aircraft) over Ukraine - then no legal problem. NATO is still not DIRECTLY fighting Russia.
Likely this is being tossed out as a result of the overfly a few days ago when a Russian missile crossed 2000meters into Poland for around 40 sec. That got the headlines - what did not was the target - a Ukrainian air base just 20 miles from the border with Poland. It was reported this base was where the "new" F-16 were being assembled / stored and would be the operational base. Russia hit it several times - cratered the runway and hit several buildings.
If this is / will be the home base for the F-16 then it is clear Ukraine can't protect it - but only 20 miles away Poland thinks they can install AD Systems to cover it - and they will be exempt from a Russian Strike on them as LONG as their AD missiles only hit over Ukraine. Roll the Dice on this one.
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jward
passin' thru
Apex
@Apex_WW
Bloomberg: "There’s no evidence of involvement by Ukraine, according to four people with close ties to the Kremlin. Putin was present at discussions where officials agreed there’s no link to Kyiv, but remains determined to use the tragedy to try to rally Russians behind the war in Ukraine, according to one person with knowledge of the situation"
bloomberg.com
12:34 PM · Mar 26, 2024
·
20.2K
Views
@Apex_WW
Bloomberg: "There’s no evidence of involvement by Ukraine, according to four people with close ties to the Kremlin. Putin was present at discussions where officials agreed there’s no link to Kyiv, but remains determined to use the tragedy to try to rally Russians behind the war in Ukraine, according to one person with knowledge of the situation"
Some in Putin’s Own Circle See No Ukraine Link to Moscow Attack
While Vladimir Putin continues to argue that Ukraine may have had a role in the Moscow attack that killed 139 people, some of the Russian president’s own inner circle disagree with him.
bloomberg.com
·
20.2K
Views
jward
passin' thru
kyivindependent.com
Polish official says NATO considering shooting down Russian missiles that approach its borders
Nate Ostiller
2–3 minutes
Support independent journalism in Ukraine. Join us in this fight.
NATO is reportedly considering the option of shooting down Russian missiles if they stray too close to its borders, Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Andrzej Szejna said to the Polish media outlet RMF24 on March 26.
Poland was forced to scramble its fighter jets to protect its airspace during Russia's drone and missile attack against Ukraine on March 24, when a Russian cruise missile entered Poland's airspace for 39 seconds.
Russia's ambassador to Poland, Sergei Andreyev, was summoned by Poland's Foreign Ministry in response to the incident, but he rejected the request.
Szejna said that "(Russia) knew that if the missile moved further into Poland, it would be shot down. There would be a counterattack."
"Various concepts are being analyzed within NATO, including for such missiles to be shot down when they are very close to the NATO border," he added.
Such a proposal would have to be approved by the Ukrainian side, Szejna said.
Russian missiles have previously entered Polish airspace during attacks on Ukraine. On Dec. 29, 2023, a missile entered Polish airspace, putting the country's defenses on high alert.
In another incident on Nov. 15, 2022, a missile flew onto Polish territory during a Russian mass strike, killing two civilians. Polish investigators later concluded that it was a stray Ukrainian anti-air projectile launched to intercept the Russian attack.
Ukraine war latest: Russia hits Kyiv, Odesa with ballistic missiles, injuring civilians
Key developments on March 25: * Russia launches another missile attack on Kyiv, at least 2 injured * Russian attack on Odesa injures 4 * Navy: Russian warship Ivan Khurs may have been damaged in Ukraine’s March 23 missile attack on Crimea * Russian governor claims fire at power plant in Rostov…
The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk
kyivindependent.com
Polish official says NATO considering shooting down Russian missiles that approach its borders
Nate Ostiller
2–3 minutes
Support independent journalism in Ukraine. Join us in this fight.
NATO is reportedly considering the option of shooting down Russian missiles if they stray too close to its borders, Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Andrzej Szejna said to the Polish media outlet RMF24 on March 26.
Poland was forced to scramble its fighter jets to protect its airspace during Russia's drone and missile attack against Ukraine on March 24, when a Russian cruise missile entered Poland's airspace for 39 seconds.
Russia's ambassador to Poland, Sergei Andreyev, was summoned by Poland's Foreign Ministry in response to the incident, but he rejected the request.
Szejna said that "(Russia) knew that if the missile moved further into Poland, it would be shot down. There would be a counterattack."
"Various concepts are being analyzed within NATO, including for such missiles to be shot down when they are very close to the NATO border," he added.
Such a proposal would have to be approved by the Ukrainian side, Szejna said.
Russian missiles have previously entered Polish airspace during attacks on Ukraine. On Dec. 29, 2023, a missile entered Polish airspace, putting the country's defenses on high alert.
In another incident on Nov. 15, 2022, a missile flew onto Polish territory during a Russian mass strike, killing two civilians. Polish investigators later concluded that it was a stray Ukrainian anti-air projectile launched to intercept the Russian attack.
Ukraine war latest: Russia hits Kyiv, Odesa with ballistic missiles, injuring civilians
Key developments on March 25: * Russia launches another missile attack on Kyiv, at least 2 injured * Russian attack on Odesa injures 4 * Navy: Russian warship Ivan Khurs may have been damaged in Ukraine’s March 23 missile attack on Crimea * Russian governor claims fire at power plant in Rostov…
The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk
Polish official says NATO considering shooting down Russian missiles that approach its borders
Poland was forced to scramble its fighter jets to protect its airspace during Russia's drone and missile attack against Ukraine on March 24, when a Russian cruise missile entered Poland's airspace for 39 seconds.
kyivindependent.com
Fair Use Cited
-----------------
Draft-dodging plagues Ukraine as Kyiv faces acute soldier shortage
An early burst of patriotic fervor saw draft centers swamped with volunteers, but that has waned with Vladimir Putin’s war in its third year.
MARCH 25, 2024 3:55 AM CET
BY JAMIE DETTMER
KYIV — The 28-year-old is one of thousands of young Ukrainian men keeping their heads down, dodging conscription and avoiding registering their details as required. Artem is cautious when he ventures out, and avoids places like metro stations where police mount document checks looking for draft-dodgers.
“Some of my friends are more paranoid — they never go out,” he says.
Artem has the air of a fugitive, with his baseball cap pulled down firmly and shielding his eyes even on an overcast day. Before entering the coffee house in downtown Kyiv to meet with POLITICO he gazes up and down the street, and once seated talks in a low voice so as not to be overheard.
When Russia invaded their country two years ago, young and old Ukrainians swamped recruitment centers to volunteer. Some were frustrated not to be drafted immediately, and complained loudly. The Ukrainian military couldn’t take everyone owing to a lack of resources and equipment, but managed to muster new units, expand established ones and improvise to halt Russian armor bearing down on Kyiv.
But that early burst of patriotic fervor has waned with the war now in its third year, the body bags filling, and men returning home injured and disfigured.
Pessimism about the future of the conflict is also taking hold, with ever more people questioning whether Ukraine is capable of defeating Moscow's forces.
'Sensitive' issue
Ukraine needs to draft many more men for a battlefield that is chewing up bodies, but authorities are conflicted over whether to cajole or coerce, and fear the political fallout if they choose the latter. Since the Russian invasion two years ago around 9,000 draft-evasion proceedings have been opened, according to the Ukrainian interior ministry, but that's just scratching the surface of the draft-dodging and the evasion of registration so enlistment notices can't be issued.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has acknowledged that the issue is “sensitive.” Even in the weeks leading up to Russia's February 2022 invasion, he resisted calls from opposition lawmakers in Kyiv to announce a general call-up.
The most immediate need now is to enlist more soldiers that can be deployed along the 1,000-kilometer front line ahead of an expected major Russian push toward either Kharkiv in the northeast or Odesa in the south. With the winter mud starting to dry and spring around the corner, Ukrainian military officials fear a concerted Russian offensive will start in the next few weeks or months.
Ukraine is perilously short not only of ammunition — especially artillery shells and air defense missiles — but also of soldiers to see off a Russian attack. The average age of Ukraine’s frontline soldiers is 43 — and evidence of draft-dodging is mounting.
The BBC recently reported that 650,000 Ukrainian men of fighting age have fled the country in the past two years, most slipping across its borders with Poland and Slovakia, some with false exemption papers allowing them to exit Ukraine despite a ban on fighting-age men leaving the country.
Last year nearly 1,300 draft-dodgers found themselves before the courts, but officials acknowledge this is just a small fraction of those avoiding enlistment. A draft system is in effect to supplement the ranks of volunteers, but lawmakers say it is dysfunctional and is hampered by the failure of thousands to register their details and whereabouts. Enforcement is haphazard, depending largely on random spot checks of documents by police, who are more vigilant in some areas of the country than in others.
Moscow’s troop strength inside Ukraine currently exceeds 400,000 soldiers, with another 100,000 near Ukrainian territory. Overall Kyiv has around 680,000 active military personnel with around 200,000 on the frontlines; Russia, meanwhile, has 1.2 million, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Ukrainian army general staff said last year they feared Russia could be considering mobilizing 400,000 to 700,000 additional troops.
In December Zelenskyy said 450,000 to 500,000 extra soldiers would be needed to resist Russia in 2024. The Ukrainian parliament has for weeks been considering fresh mobilization legislation, which would see the minimum conscription age lowered from 27 to 25. The age was in fact lowered in separate legislation last July and approved by parliament, but Zelenskyy never signed it into law. He hasn't fully explained why.
The new draft legislation has been re-written several times and envisages a call-up of another 400,000 Ukrainian troops. It has stalled in the parliament, however, with lawmakers objecting to some punitive measures they regard as unconstitutional, such as restricting the property rights of draft-dodgers, impounding their cars and blocking their bank accounts.
'Hot political potato'
“That’s highly unpopular,” said Mykola Kniazhytskyi, an opposition lawmaker from Lviv. “Truth be told, mobilization is a hot political potato, and no one wants to be holding it. The army needs many more people. But Zelenskyy doesn’t want to take responsibility for the mobilization and says it is up to government ministries, and they’re afraid of getting their hands burned and say it is up to the parliament, which then passes the buck back.
“Even most lawmakers from Zelenskyy’s own party [Servant of the People] are against the legislation, saying it falls foul of European human rights conventions,” Kniazhytskyi added. “This is becoming a real mess. In Lviv, people are buying apartments but don't sign a purchase agreement to avoid it being formally registered, or they register it in a friend’s name because they’re afraid later it could be confiscated. Others are emptying bank accounts in case legislation is approved and their money [is] frozen.”
What isn’t helping, he and other lawmakers say, is the frequent talk from the frontlines about the lack of weapons and artillery shells. “You have officers going on television saying if we don't get more money and ammunition from the United States and Europe everyone at the front is going to get killed in a matter of weeks because the Russians produce many drones and have more shells,” Kniazhytskyi fumed. Such prognoses aren’t helping persuade reluctant Ukrainians like Artem to join up.
“There’s no real political will to pass a legislation that would actually work efficiently — it has been postponed so many times already,” said former Deputy Prime Minister Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, now an opposition lawmaker.
“The Western hesitation in providing the military resupply and weapons we need isn’t helping in terms of mobilization,” she added. “If the only thing you hear from the front is that they don’t have enough weapons to fight, then obviously it makes people even more skeptical about enlisting.”
'One-way ticket'
Artem says he and his friends dodging the draft are also afraid of being stuck in combat for months or years on end. “I’m young and want to live my life, and to go there without knowing when I will return to my normal life is hard. I have friends who volunteered at the beginning of the war and they're still there fighting. So it is like a one-way ticket,” he says.
Prolonged time on the frontlines is also drawing bitter complaints from battle-weary Ukrainian combatants demanding to be demobilized or rotated out with lengthy recuperation time. Their relatives want the same thing: On Sunday, dozens of families of frontline soldiers crowded into Kyiv’s Maidan Square to demand their husbands, fathers and boyfriends be relieved from combat, arguing they’ve done their bit and now must be demobilized or given considerable rest and relaxation.
But that can’t happen until more Ukrainians sign up and are trained.
Some lawmakers are pushing for the duration of military service proposed in the draft mobilization bill to be cut from 36 to 18 months; service is currently open-ended.
Last month, Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Zelenskyy, said people will have to determine for themselves the price they are willing to pay for Ukraine’s independence. He told POLITICO it would help if ordinary Ukrainians didn’t feel Western support was flagging, and queried whether Ukraine is that much different from other modern European countries.
“Is there any country where everyone will participate fully in the type of war Ukraine is in?" he asked. "It seems to me that it would be very difficult to carry out such mobilization in any European country, to put it mildly, and much harder than even in Ukraine. You must consider that people are invested in their careers and the good life,” he told POLITICO.
Podolyak added: "It is different for Russians — many people are enduring uncomfortable lives and are unemployed and they are paid a good salary in Russian terms to fight and then they are also told they can kill and steal with impunity.”
He also said that seeing the issue purely through the lens of mobilization misses the point. “It is nonsense to think in terms of sheer numbers when fighting against Russia. We live in the age of high technology. Why should people have to fight if you have enough precision weapons — drones, jammers, long-range missiles? The more tools we have in the form of precision weapons, the less gunfights we have,” he said.
But Ukraine doesn’t have enough of those high-tech weapons. Until they do, sheer numbers may well win out — and even if they do get the supplies, they still may not compensate for Russia’s greater manpower.
For Artem, there’s little that could persuade him to enlist. “My mother is a nurse and she sees the wounded and tells me firmly to stay out of it,” he says.
www.politico.eu
-----------------
Draft-dodging plagues Ukraine as Kyiv faces acute soldier shortage
An early burst of patriotic fervor saw draft centers swamped with volunteers, but that has waned with Vladimir Putin’s war in its third year.
MARCH 25, 2024 3:55 AM CET
BY JAMIE DETTMER
KYIV — The 28-year-old is one of thousands of young Ukrainian men keeping their heads down, dodging conscription and avoiding registering their details as required. Artem is cautious when he ventures out, and avoids places like metro stations where police mount document checks looking for draft-dodgers.
“Some of my friends are more paranoid — they never go out,” he says.
Artem has the air of a fugitive, with his baseball cap pulled down firmly and shielding his eyes even on an overcast day. Before entering the coffee house in downtown Kyiv to meet with POLITICO he gazes up and down the street, and once seated talks in a low voice so as not to be overheard.
When Russia invaded their country two years ago, young and old Ukrainians swamped recruitment centers to volunteer. Some were frustrated not to be drafted immediately, and complained loudly. The Ukrainian military couldn’t take everyone owing to a lack of resources and equipment, but managed to muster new units, expand established ones and improvise to halt Russian armor bearing down on Kyiv.
But that early burst of patriotic fervor has waned with the war now in its third year, the body bags filling, and men returning home injured and disfigured.
Pessimism about the future of the conflict is also taking hold, with ever more people questioning whether Ukraine is capable of defeating Moscow's forces.
'Sensitive' issue
Ukraine needs to draft many more men for a battlefield that is chewing up bodies, but authorities are conflicted over whether to cajole or coerce, and fear the political fallout if they choose the latter. Since the Russian invasion two years ago around 9,000 draft-evasion proceedings have been opened, according to the Ukrainian interior ministry, but that's just scratching the surface of the draft-dodging and the evasion of registration so enlistment notices can't be issued.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has acknowledged that the issue is “sensitive.” Even in the weeks leading up to Russia's February 2022 invasion, he resisted calls from opposition lawmakers in Kyiv to announce a general call-up.
The most immediate need now is to enlist more soldiers that can be deployed along the 1,000-kilometer front line ahead of an expected major Russian push toward either Kharkiv in the northeast or Odesa in the south. With the winter mud starting to dry and spring around the corner, Ukrainian military officials fear a concerted Russian offensive will start in the next few weeks or months.
Ukraine is perilously short not only of ammunition — especially artillery shells and air defense missiles — but also of soldiers to see off a Russian attack. The average age of Ukraine’s frontline soldiers is 43 — and evidence of draft-dodging is mounting.
The BBC recently reported that 650,000 Ukrainian men of fighting age have fled the country in the past two years, most slipping across its borders with Poland and Slovakia, some with false exemption papers allowing them to exit Ukraine despite a ban on fighting-age men leaving the country.
Last year nearly 1,300 draft-dodgers found themselves before the courts, but officials acknowledge this is just a small fraction of those avoiding enlistment. A draft system is in effect to supplement the ranks of volunteers, but lawmakers say it is dysfunctional and is hampered by the failure of thousands to register their details and whereabouts. Enforcement is haphazard, depending largely on random spot checks of documents by police, who are more vigilant in some areas of the country than in others.
Moscow’s troop strength inside Ukraine currently exceeds 400,000 soldiers, with another 100,000 near Ukrainian territory. Overall Kyiv has around 680,000 active military personnel with around 200,000 on the frontlines; Russia, meanwhile, has 1.2 million, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Ukrainian army general staff said last year they feared Russia could be considering mobilizing 400,000 to 700,000 additional troops.
In December Zelenskyy said 450,000 to 500,000 extra soldiers would be needed to resist Russia in 2024. The Ukrainian parliament has for weeks been considering fresh mobilization legislation, which would see the minimum conscription age lowered from 27 to 25. The age was in fact lowered in separate legislation last July and approved by parliament, but Zelenskyy never signed it into law. He hasn't fully explained why.
The new draft legislation has been re-written several times and envisages a call-up of another 400,000 Ukrainian troops. It has stalled in the parliament, however, with lawmakers objecting to some punitive measures they regard as unconstitutional, such as restricting the property rights of draft-dodgers, impounding their cars and blocking their bank accounts.
'Hot political potato'
“That’s highly unpopular,” said Mykola Kniazhytskyi, an opposition lawmaker from Lviv. “Truth be told, mobilization is a hot political potato, and no one wants to be holding it. The army needs many more people. But Zelenskyy doesn’t want to take responsibility for the mobilization and says it is up to government ministries, and they’re afraid of getting their hands burned and say it is up to the parliament, which then passes the buck back.
“Even most lawmakers from Zelenskyy’s own party [Servant of the People] are against the legislation, saying it falls foul of European human rights conventions,” Kniazhytskyi added. “This is becoming a real mess. In Lviv, people are buying apartments but don't sign a purchase agreement to avoid it being formally registered, or they register it in a friend’s name because they’re afraid later it could be confiscated. Others are emptying bank accounts in case legislation is approved and their money [is] frozen.”
What isn’t helping, he and other lawmakers say, is the frequent talk from the frontlines about the lack of weapons and artillery shells. “You have officers going on television saying if we don't get more money and ammunition from the United States and Europe everyone at the front is going to get killed in a matter of weeks because the Russians produce many drones and have more shells,” Kniazhytskyi fumed. Such prognoses aren’t helping persuade reluctant Ukrainians like Artem to join up.
“There’s no real political will to pass a legislation that would actually work efficiently — it has been postponed so many times already,” said former Deputy Prime Minister Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, now an opposition lawmaker.
“The Western hesitation in providing the military resupply and weapons we need isn’t helping in terms of mobilization,” she added. “If the only thing you hear from the front is that they don’t have enough weapons to fight, then obviously it makes people even more skeptical about enlisting.”
'One-way ticket'
Artem says he and his friends dodging the draft are also afraid of being stuck in combat for months or years on end. “I’m young and want to live my life, and to go there without knowing when I will return to my normal life is hard. I have friends who volunteered at the beginning of the war and they're still there fighting. So it is like a one-way ticket,” he says.
Prolonged time on the frontlines is also drawing bitter complaints from battle-weary Ukrainian combatants demanding to be demobilized or rotated out with lengthy recuperation time. Their relatives want the same thing: On Sunday, dozens of families of frontline soldiers crowded into Kyiv’s Maidan Square to demand their husbands, fathers and boyfriends be relieved from combat, arguing they’ve done their bit and now must be demobilized or given considerable rest and relaxation.
But that can’t happen until more Ukrainians sign up and are trained.
Some lawmakers are pushing for the duration of military service proposed in the draft mobilization bill to be cut from 36 to 18 months; service is currently open-ended.
Last month, Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Zelenskyy, said people will have to determine for themselves the price they are willing to pay for Ukraine’s independence. He told POLITICO it would help if ordinary Ukrainians didn’t feel Western support was flagging, and queried whether Ukraine is that much different from other modern European countries.
“Is there any country where everyone will participate fully in the type of war Ukraine is in?" he asked. "It seems to me that it would be very difficult to carry out such mobilization in any European country, to put it mildly, and much harder than even in Ukraine. You must consider that people are invested in their careers and the good life,” he told POLITICO.
Podolyak added: "It is different for Russians — many people are enduring uncomfortable lives and are unemployed and they are paid a good salary in Russian terms to fight and then they are also told they can kill and steal with impunity.”
He also said that seeing the issue purely through the lens of mobilization misses the point. “It is nonsense to think in terms of sheer numbers when fighting against Russia. We live in the age of high technology. Why should people have to fight if you have enough precision weapons — drones, jammers, long-range missiles? The more tools we have in the form of precision weapons, the less gunfights we have,” he said.
But Ukraine doesn’t have enough of those high-tech weapons. Until they do, sheer numbers may well win out — and even if they do get the supplies, they still may not compensate for Russia’s greater manpower.
For Artem, there’s little that could persuade him to enlist. “My mother is a nurse and she sees the wounded and tells me firmly to stay out of it,” he says.
Draft-dodging plagues Ukraine as Kyiv faces acute soldier shortage
An early burst of patriotic fervor saw draft centers swamped with volunteers, but that has waned with Vladimir Putin’s war in its third year.
www.politico.eu