ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

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mecoastie

Veteran Member
TheSearcher said:
I'm wondering if the staging is meant for a two-stage attack.

1. Roll over Ukraine in a blitzkrieg attack, grab the whole country.
2. Roll past Ukraine just a little bit with air power and missile strikes into neighboring states to enforce the message.

The chance of it blowing up beyond that bigly is high, and grave if so. Russia may be slow-rolling this because they expected less defense of Ukraine than is now being pledged.
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As someone else mentioned I am beginning to think that maybe the Belarus drills are due to the support the Ukraine was getting. Maybe now Putin realizes he has to take the whole country and quickly. Maybe before he was just thinking take a chunk but now that would leave part of Ukraine that would get an incredible amount of military support from the West right on Russias border. Any strike outside of the Ukraine and we are instantly in full blown WW3. I think even France and Germany would wake up at that point. But who knows? I am just happy when I wake up in the morning and my power and internet still work.
 
coalcracker

coalcracker

Veteran Member
Here is a disturbing thought:

Putin, if he were actually planning a nuclear bolt out of blue attack on USA, may wish to exhaust all appearances of diplomacy and patience. Why? He may not want to go down in history as the man who killed millions without just cause.

The stalling, while weakening his position on one part of the chessboard (Ukraine), may yet serve him well if he is planning a much more ambitious attack elsewhere.
 
TheSearcher

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
Oreally said:
a huge amount of imports from all over the world comes in by ship through odessa. a lot of stuff , mostly agricultural and dairy comes from poland and holland, but no way the existing system could handle a huge increase.

plus a lot of seafood that is a much bigger mainstay here comes from the black sea.
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A lot to ponder.
 
CaryC

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB
danielboon said:
EndGameWW3 Retweeted


Liveuamap
@Liveuamap
·
12m

Germany is blocking NATO ally Estonia from giving military support to Ukraine by refusing to issue permits for German-origin weapons to be exported to Kyiv as it braces for a potential Russian invasion https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/21-january-germany-is-blocking-nato-ally-estonia-from-giving… via
@NatashaBertrand
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Ya know.....the stuff that I own, I don't ask no bodies permission to do what I want with it.

'Course under a socialist regime, that could change.
 
P

philkar

Veteran Member
M

mecoastie

Veteran Member
coalcracker said:
Here is a disturbing thought:

Putin, if he were actually planning a nuclear bolt out of blue attack on USA, may wish to exhaust all appearances of diplomacy and patience. Why? He may not want to go down in history as the man who killed millions without just cause.

The stalling, while weakening his position on one part of the chessboard (Ukraine), may yet serve him well if he is planning a much more ambitious attack elsewhere.
Click to expand...
I dont see a nuke start to it. Nothing to gain and everything to lose. I see it used if it looks like we are about to overrun Russia proper same if Russia was going to overrun Paris.
 
T

toxic avenger

Senior Member
coalcracker said:
Here is a disturbing thought:

Putin, if he were actually planning a nuclear bolt out of blue attack on USA, may wish to exhaust all appearances of diplomacy and patience. Why? He may not want to go down in history as the man who killed millions without just cause.

The stalling, while weakening his position on one part of the chessboard (Ukraine), may yet serve him well if he is planning a much more ambitious attack elsewhere.
Click to expand...
I’ve been dwelling on the same thought, my friend. When looking at the Broad picture of things and the arguments given by the Russian federation, a lot of points seem to be missed by analysts and news agencies. Ukraine doesn’t seem to be the main problem, more like a straw that broke the camels back. Looking at the other concerns provided by Russia, they have a genuine existential crisis, at least in their perception. They are looking at the long-term survival of their nation while being surrounded by NATO interests. All of the press and analyst reports interpret their moves thinking only on the short term and not long term. This disconnect is going to be looked upon by future generations as a tragic mistake, if an accurate written record will exist for them anyway.
 
Infoscout

Infoscout

The Dude Abides
If Putin were to invade the Uke’s, he will lose a lot well trained hard core men as well as material, which would spell trouble for him at home. I think at this point show some military gear off on the border, and put missile sites in Venezuela and Cuba, and say two can play that game. I would also if I was him create a South American version of NATO against the US. He has already caused a small amount of division in NATO, and the Baltic states have to look at reality now, no one can save them from the Bear if the Bear wants them bad enough. America can no longer fight a conventional war or defensive action in Europe, and America can not supply the Baltic states if cut off by sea. Putin has proven his point, and can reap the Bene’s now.
 
H

Hi-D

Membership Revoked
Hogwrench said:
Might want to pay attention to the RC that is off the coast of California at the border. The other off the west coast of Florida and another steaming towards the gulf. It not how many planes are up. It is what is up and where.
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I went out skiing. You weren't in that E-3b (75-0558) that flew over me about an hour ago were ya. LOL
 
Hogwrench

Hogwrench

Senior Member
Hi-D said:
I went out skiing. You weren't in that E-3b (75-0558) that flew over me about an hour ago were ya. LOL
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LOL. Hell no. My days of working for Uncle Sam are a ways behind me now. The specific RC that was off Cali is able to detect launches over the horizon. And judging by the repetitive course he was flying I’m betting that was the mission today. They were all out over water which is highly unusual. They are normally over land scooping up data and signals. 3 RC’s over CONUS all along the southern border. Interesting times.
 
S

Squid

Veteran Member
danielboon said:
EndGameWW3 Retweeted


Liveuamap
@Liveuamap
·
12m

Germany is blocking NATO ally Estonia from giving military support to Ukraine by refusing to issue permits for German-origin weapons to be exported to Kyiv as it braces for a potential Russian invasion https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/21-january-germany-is-blocking-nato-ally-estonia-from-giving… via
@NatashaBertrand
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The Russians supplying Germany heating gas is working already.

Time for US to move all their bases out of Germany.

Seems somebody was already working on this. It’s almost like that someone has a better grasp if geo politics than the NY Times.
 
Donna_in_OK

Donna_in_OK

Veteran Member
Hogwrench said:
LOL. Hell no. My days of working for Uncle Sam are a ways behind me now. The specific RC that was off Cali is able to detect launches over the horizon. And judging by the repetitive course he was flying I’m betting that was the mission today. They were all out over water which is highly unusual. They are normally over land scooping up data and signals. 3 RC’s over CONUS all along the southern border. Interesting times.
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How quick could the sensors/equipment be swapped out to detect other things? Or at least add a couple extra to tag along for the ride?
 
Hogwrench

Hogwrench

Senior Member
Donna_in_OK said:
How quick could the sensors/equipment be swapped out to detect other things? Or at least add a couple extra to tag along for the ride?
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Not easily. Would basically require a complete gut of the aircraft to swap wiring and all the brain boxes out. Each airframe is set up for specific tasks and nothing else. As far as adding additional personnel that’s not really an option either. There are crew stations throughout the plane which have huge desks and monitors. About the only place you could stow away any extra people or gear is in the few bunks for resting and the galley.
 
Donna_in_OK

Donna_in_OK

Veteran Member
Hogwrench said:
Not easily. Would basically require a complete gut of the aircraft to swap wiring and all the brain boxes out. Each airframe is set up for specific tasks and nothing else. As far as adding additional personnel that’s not really an option either. There are crew stations throughout the plane which have huge desks and monitors. About the only place you could stow away any extra people or gear is in the few bunks for resting and the galley.
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Thanks. I didn't figure there would be much room. I know I see ads all of the time looking for contractors to help wire planes. Some of those places are so tight nothing but a toddler could fit.
 
WTSR

WTSR

Veteran Member
toxic avenger said:
I’ve been dwelling on the same thought, my friend. When looking at the Broad picture of things and the arguments given by the Russian federation, a lot of points seem to be missed by analysts and news agencies. Ukraine doesn’t seem to be the main problem, more like a straw that broke the camels back. Looking at the other concerns provided by Russia, they have a genuine existential crisis, at least in their perception. They are looking at the long-term survival of their nation while being surrounded by NATO interests. All of the press and analyst reports interpret their moves thinking only on the short term and not long term. This disconnect is going to be looked upon by future generations as a tragic mistake, if an accurate written record will exist for them anyway.
Click to expand...

And move all your military assets near friendly areas to prevent them from being attacked with nuclear retaliation?
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
coalcracker said:
Here is a disturbing thought:

Putin, if he were actually planning a nuclear bolt out of blue attack on USA, may wish to exhaust all appearances of diplomacy and patience. Why? He may not want to go down in history as the man who killed millions without just cause.

The stalling, while weakening his position on one part of the chessboard (Ukraine), may yet serve him well if he is planning a much more ambitious attack elsewhere.
Click to expand...

As I've noted before, I wouldn't be surprised if Putin does some "just below the radar" stuff in the EU/NATO and within the US. A "home invasion" here, a "mugging" there, antibiotic resistent bacterial pneumonia across the way and someone falling out of a 5th floor window of the "right people" who are connected but not in government will definitely send a message. The trial runs on this stuff has been going on for quite a while using ex-pat Russian political opponents as the "test subjects".
 
C

Crusty Echo 7

Veteran Member
Hognutz

Hognutz

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Housecarl said:
As I've noted before, I wouldn't be surprised if Putin does some "just below the radar" stuff in the EU/NATO and within the US. A "home invasion" here, a "mugging" there, antibiotic resistent bacterial pneumonia across the way and someone falling out of a 5th floor window of the "right people" who are connected but not in government will definitely send a message. The trial runs on this stuff has been going on for quite a while using ex-pat Russian political opponents as the "test subjects".
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I sure hope so!
 
WildDaisy

WildDaisy

God has a plan, Trust it!
toxic avenger said:
I’ve been dwelling on the same thought, my friend. When looking at the Broad picture of things and the arguments given by the Russian federation, a lot of points seem to be missed by analysts and news agencies. Ukraine doesn’t seem to be the main problem, more like a straw that broke the camels back. Looking at the other concerns provided by Russia, they have a genuine existential crisis, at least in their perception. They are looking at the long-term survival of their nation while being surrounded by NATO interests. All of the press and analyst reports interpret their moves thinking only on the short term and not long term. This disconnect is going to be looked upon by future generations as a tragic mistake, if an accurate written record will exist for them anyway.
Click to expand...

I agree. Imagine if a "Russian Federation" surrounded the US - Cuba, Mexico, Japan, all Caribbean islands, etc all part of a coalition against us, and then we find out Canada now wants to join that coalition. We'd be threatened too.

This is what I think it is about. Tic, Tac, Toe - Russia wants to force a cats-game.

In the immortal words of Joshua (Wargames): "A strange game. The only winning move is not to play"

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