INTL Monkeypox - Consolidated Thread.

helen

Panic Sex Lady
I can't do this. :bwl:


The Biden administration announced Wednesday that it is expanding monkeypox testing to commercial laboratories amid fears that the country is undercounting monkeypox cases because of insufficient testing.
The Department of Health and Human Services announced that it began shipping moneypox tests this week to five private testing companies: Aegis Science, Labcorp, Mayo Clinic Laboratories, Quest Diagnostics and Sonic Healthcare.

 

summerthyme

Administrator
_______________
The severe pain, scaring, blindness, and death, which has been observed in cases of Monkeypox historically.

The greater severity of Monkeypox in children, who have thus far been spared during the current outbreak but are likely to be infected increasingly as community transmission expands


So, who or what is "The World Health Network"

Summerthyme
 

Zelek11

Contributing Member
What kind of PPE should we acquire before the panic buying begins? I've already started stocking up on nitrile gloves. Are n95 masks going to offer any protection? I'm guessing face shields and/or goggles may be necessary as well? Maybe get long sleeve shirts? What about for cleaning amazon packages?
 

psychgirl

Has No Life - Lives on TB
What kind of PPE should we acquire before the panic buying begins? I've already started stocking up on nitrile gloves. Are n95 masks going to offer any protection? I'm guessing face shields and/or goggles may be necessary as well? Maybe get long sleeve shirts? What about for cleaning amazon packages?
All of that.
 

Meemur

Voice on the Prairie / FJB!
What kind of PPE should we acquire before the panic buying begins?
In the past, Helen has mentioned face shields (to protect the eyes) and then medical-grade
masks (I don't want to get the number wrong -- N-95? Don't use cloth). She has also mentioned medical gloves for the fomites.

She didn't mention these, but I've been stocking and using hand sanitizer (when away from home) and Clorox bleach since the SARS outbreak.
 

jward

passin' thru
Thanks for the reminder that utter clarity is required; I do tend to err on the side that it might be insulting to the reader or suggest a lack o' faith in their basic reading comprehension skills to parse the message for them..- will amend my post.

Just for clarity, since the WHO is planning on meeting Thursday about Monkeypox, the WHN might be easily be confused with the WHO if someone was not familiar with the two groups: The WHN is a US based 501(c)(3) nonprofit, and the WHO is an international NGO.

I wonder if the WHN is trying to steal WHO's thunder...
 

jward

passin' thru
Today, 12:29 PM
How monkeypox epidemic is likely to play out – in four graphs


Published: June 21, 2022 8.13am EDTAuthor
  1. Adam Kleczkowski
    Professor of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde
Disclosure statement

Adam Kleczkowski receives funding from the UK Research and Innovation and the Scottish Government.
Partners

University of Strathclyde provides funding as a member of The Conversation UK.


The first case of monkeypox in a human was reported in 1970 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Since then, there have been many monkeypox outbreaks, but they have been self-limiting, with chains of human transmission ending without establishing epidemics. The current outbreak, however, is different. There is more human-to-human transmission, and it is over a much broader geographical area.

In mere weeks, monkeypox has spread to 37 non-endemic countries, with over 2,600 cases. So, what is likely to happen to monkeypox in the following weeks and months?

There are huge gaps in what we know about monkeypox, but combining what we do know with a history of other infectious diseases makes it possible to analyse likely future scenarios.

The four scenarios below are based on the following knowledge: the average number of people an infected person is likely to infect (assuming they have not been vaccinated against the virus or have had the disease before) is 2.13. This is called the basic reproduction number, or R. Herd immunity – the point at which enough people have immunity such that disease transmission can’t be sustained – is 53% (corresponding to this value of R). And the incubation period, the time from catching the virus to the appearance of symptoms, is between five and 21 days.

Scenario 1: Self-limiting outbreak

The 2022 epidemic appears to have started as a super-spreader event involving a network of predominantly men who have sex with men.

But until the current outbreak it was assumed that the relatively low human-to-human transmissibility of the virus makes it unlikely for the virus to spread outside the initial community.
Plot illustrating the daily number of cases under scenario 1. The size and duration of the outbreak here and in the graphs below are for illustration purposes only and do not constitute a detailed prediction of what might happen in the future. More details available at https://statisticallyinsignificant.b...rio-modelling/ Adam Kleczkowski

In this scenario, the outbreak ends quickly once the population at risk becomes immune and herd immunity is reached locally. In the past, many people had some immunity (called “cross-immunity”) from the smallpox mass vaccination programmes of the late 20th century. So the effective reproduction number, R, can be close to or even lower than one, and the transmission will soon stop.

Behavioural changes can reduce the number R even more. For example, the ring vaccination can form a “firebreak”, further reducing the susceptible population. Similar previous epidemics include the Sars outbreak in 2002-04, when a quick intervention stopped the disease from spreading.


Scenario 2: All population

The continuing spread of monkeypox in May and June 2022 suggests that the virus is moving beyond the original network.

The size of the outbreak is already well beyond the most prominent 2017-19 outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (760). It is possible that large gatherings, including raves and festivals, have created new transmission clusters.
A plot illustrating the daily number of cases under Scenario 2. Adam Kleczkowski

Scenario 2 assumes that everybody below the age of 50 is susceptible to the infection, reflecting the end of compulsory smallpox vaccination in the 1970-80s. The virus will continue spreading, effectively searching for pockets of high-risk and non-immune communities.

Unless a combination of contact tracing and ring vaccination stops the spread, the monkeypox will continue spreading. But, given the low transmissibility of monkeypox, the epidemic may fizzle out before reaching the herd immunity threshold of 50% of the population.


Scenario 3: Becoming endemic

Complete eradication is impossible because monkeypox exists in a wide range of animal hosts. The low transmissibility also means it can survive at low levels in the population. In addition, the long incubation period and variable symptoms allow it to avoid detection. Therefore, monkeypox may have already been spreading for a long time.
A plot illustrating the daily number of cases under Scenario 3. Details available at https://statisticallyinsignificant.b...rio-modelling/ Adam Kleczkowski

In scenario 3, following the large outbreak, the disease will settle on a long-term, relatively constant level. Similar to the pre-vaccination smallpox or chickenpox.

The influx of susceptible people through birth or migration will keep the virus in the population. Mass vaccination programmes might be needed to eradicate the disease. But relatively low monkeypox transmissibility means such programmes are likely to be highly effective.


Scenario 4: Recurrent large epidemics

The current epidemic might be the first instance of a series of outbreaks. In the long term (scenario 4), we should expect a return of monkeypox caused by future “zoonotic events” where the disease jumps from animal hosts to humans. As the cross-immunity from smallpox vaccines wanes, the epidemics can become even more substantial.
A plot illustrating the daily number of cases under Scenario 4. Details available at https://statisticallyinsignificant.b...rio-modelling/ Adam Kleczkowski

Little is known about the potential of monkeypox to mutate. Still, there is potential for it to evolve into a more rapidly spreading variant.

Effective vaccines for monkeypox exist and are about 85% effective. Although there are currently not enough doses to vaccinate everyone, there is no need for a mass-vaccination programme given monkeypox’s low transmissibility. Instead, vaccines should be offered to those most at risk, including communities in Africa most in contact with the wild animals that carry the virus.

https://theconversation.com/how-monk...-graphs-184578
[/B][/B]
 

jward

passin' thru
Aww..remember 99% o the DOOM-A-GEDDONS we predict on this website never came to pass.

..I used to be anxious years ago, when reading everything too, until I sat down and listed the issue or event and then whether or not it occurred, or to what extent, if any, it occurred etc... That changing fear based emotive appeals to hard mathematical data made it much easier to have a healthy response to all the "stuff" we get "exposed" to.

It also helps tremendously to remember no matter if you're talking biological pandemics, wars, monetary collapse, food shortages, supply chain disruption or what ever, the solutions remain remarkably unchanged:
1. first a solid relationship with whomever you meet with when you enter your inner sanctum, which builds discernment..

Followed by attention to your physical, mental and emotional health/resiliency, without which you're no good for yourself, or anyone else.

Then taking as much personal responsibility as you can to be self sufficient and supply your own food, clothing, heating, water, health care, sewage, etc etc etc.

Or, as I usually put it,in readers' digest format: Move daily, pray incessantly, in your moments of sorrow, and of joy, and love fearlessly and unconditionally. Simple, if not easy.

Crap. I might have liked it better when I wasn’t reading through this thread.
:(
 

jward

passin' thru
On what do we base the idea it was faster? I've not yet seen any formulas for the "normal" transmissions, let alone what would be expected in a "virgin" population; without knowing those things, can we have any intelligible understanding of the data? Maybe we can extrapolate from small pox on that score as well? :: shrug ::

I know anecdotal reports are absolutely worthless, but still I've tried to drop by the local gay papers and see what, if anything is being said to get a feel for what it's like on the ground. So far, here in flyover country not much, and looks like the hook up activities is as robust as ever. . .

It’s here for sure, now.
Faster than was expected to happen , I think.
 

Dozdoats

On TB every waking moment
Biden: “We Need More Money To Plan For The Second Pandemic. There’s Going To Be Another Pandemic.” (themostimportantnews.com)

Biden: “We Need More Money To Plan For The Second Pandemic. There’s Going To Be Another Pandemic.”
June 21, 2022
FacebookTwitter


Should we be preparing for a “second pandemic” to arrive? The man in the White House sure seems to think so. A lot of people don’t take what Joe Biden has to say very seriously, because it is obvious that he is in an advanced state of mental decline. But it is that lack of mental sharpness that causes him to slip up and reveal things that those around Biden do not want him to reveal. That is one of the reasons why Biden is kept away from reporters most of the time, but once in a while there is a brief opportunity for reporters to directly interact with him. We witnessed one of those brief opportunities this week, and the way that Biden responded to one reporter’s question has a lot of people scratching their heads

“How much of the supply of vaccines for these small children is there and how many of the nation’s kids will you be able to get vaccinated before you need more money from Congress?” a reporter asked.
“We’ll get through at least this year. We do need more money, but we don’t just need more money for vaccines for children eventually. We need more money to plan for the second pandemic. There’s going to be another pandemic,” Biden said.
If Biden was simply trying to say that it is inevitable that another pandemic will eventually come along someday, that would not be that big of a deal, because that is just common sense.
But what he actually said seems to infer much more than that.
He was suggesting that more money would be needed while he is in the White House in order to prepare for “the second pandemic”. So that would seem to indicate that he believes that another one is coming very soon.
And of course there have been many pandemics throughout history, but by using the term “second pandemic” he is clearly pairing the next one that is coming with the COVID pandemic.
So when Biden says that there is going to be “another pandemic”, he is not talking about something that will take place 20 or 30 years from now.
NOW – Biden: “There’s gonna be another pandemic.”pic.twitter.com/VgfNWgI8k2
— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) June 21, 2022
So what does he know?
This is a very rare instance in which I actually agree with Biden. I have been strongly warning that another pandemic is coming, and I have explained exactly why I believe that.
Obviously Biden does not believe what I believe.
So what information has led him to the conclusion that there will definitely be another pandemic?
Does he believe that monkeypox will develop into such a crisis?
On Tuesday, Fox News reported that the total number of confirmed cases in the United States has now risen to 113…
The monkeypox virus has spread to 20 U.S. states and the nation’s capital.
Thus far, 113 infections have been reported, with the majority in California, New York, Illinois and Florida.
And the Daily Mail is telling us that a suspected case in New Jersey could become the 114th confirmed case…
The monkeypox sample was taken in Jersey City, according to the city’s official social media account, and processed at a public health laboratory.
It will be sent to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for confirmation.
The case will bring the total number of confirmed cases across America to 114 in 22 states, including the District of Colombia.
Needless to say, there are other parts of the world that are being hit much harder.
In areas of Africa where monkeypox is endemic, there have been more than 1,500 confirmed cases so far this year, and 72 of those victims have died.
In the rest of the world where monkeypox is not endemic at this stage, there are 3,126 confirmed cases and 120 suspected cases.
The number of confirmed cases continues to grow at an exponential rate, and the United Kingdom continues to lead the way.
As I write this article, there are 793 confirmed cases in the UK, and the vast majority of them are men that have sex with other men
To date, more than 99% of monkeypox cases in Britain are among men, and the majority of those are in men who are gay, bisexual or who have sex with men. Scientists warn that anyone who is in close, physical contact with someone infected with monkeypox or their clothing or bedsheets is at risk of the disease, regardless of their sexual orientation.
In a desperate attempt to stop this outbreak from exploding, health officials in the UK are going to start giving vaccines to men from the gay community
British health officials will start offering vaccines to some men who have sex with men and are at the highest risk of catching monkeypox, in an effort to curb the biggest outbreak of the disease beyond Africa.
Doctors can consider vaccination for some men at the highest risk of exposure, Britain’s Health Security agency said in a statement Tuesday. The agency identified those at highest risk as men who have sex with men and who have multiple partners, participate in group sex or attend venues where sex occurs on the premises.
Of course nobody knows if those vaccines will actually be effective. As I have covered previously, the new strain that is going around has approximately 40 mutations that differentiate it from previous strains.
There is still so much that we do not know, and on Thursday officials at the WHO are scheduled to get together to discuss what to do next
The World Health Organization (WHO) has confirmed that a meeting will take place on Thursday to determine whether monkeypox is an emergency of international concern.
Ultimately, it is going to take far more than a few thousand cases to turn this into the same sort of global crisis that we faced with COVID.
However, as I noted earlier, the number of confirmed cases has been rising at an exponential rate.
If that continues to happen, and if the number of confirmed cases just keeps doubling, it won’t be too long before we have a real nightmare on our hands.
We will just have to wait and see what happens.
But whether monkeypox becomes a true global pandemic or not, there is one thing that Joe Biden and I fully agree on.
Another pandemic is definitely coming, and we won’t have to wait too long before it is here.
 

Zelek11

Contributing Member
I hope not, but that might be where they are going to take the narrative. I hope it's just Biden mouthing off, again.
My take on Biden is that it's easier for him to remember the truth than to remember the lie. When he accidentally reveals the truth, the media either ignores what he said, explains that his comment was taken out of context, or offers an alternative explanation for what Biden really meant.
 

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
(fair use applies)

UK’s Glastonbury Festival welcomes back fans after pandemic
yesterday

LONDON (AP) — Thousands of people are returning to England’s Glastonbury Festival as the five-day music and performing arts event reopened Wednesday for the first time in three years after being disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The festival, which is marking its 50th anniversary, has 3,000 performers scheduled, including Billie Eilish, Diana Ross, Kendrick Lamar and Paul McCartney. McCartney’s weekend gig will make him, at age 80, the festival’s oldest solo headline performer.

Festival-goers started lining up to enter the gates at Worthy Farm in Somerset, southwest England, early Wednesday. Many struggled to get to the site because the festival coincided with the largest rail strike that Britain has seen in decades.
Just 60% of trains were expected to run on Wednesday, with more walkouts planned for Thursday and Saturday.

Hundreds of people waited with their bags at London’s Paddington Station to try to get on a train to the festival.
Camilla Seward, 26, described feeling “abject panic” when the rail strikes were announced.

“It is my first-ever actual festival. We bought the ticket nearly three years ago. I’ve been so stressed out about getting there that I haven’t even thought about who I am excited to see,” she said.

Jenna Conway, 30, thought she could beat travel disruption by getting to Paddington eaerly, but she and a friend were left queuing for hours.

“We got here three hours ahead of our train, we were stupid, we just thought we could jump on any train. We thought they would be kind because of the strikes, but they didn’t let us on, so now we wait,” she said.

Some 200,000 people are expected to attend the festival, which runs until Sunday.

“The wait has been so long and it’s just the biggest build up we’ve ever had,” festival organizer Emily Eavis said.

“Getting Paul McCartney for us is just the ultimate, just the person to have this year to actually bring this whole thing back and bring everybody together,” Eavis said. “And what better way to celebrate that than having Paul McCartney himself.”
 

helen

Panic Sex Lady
Relevant information.


Overview
The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) is coordinating with the following states that have Declared Emergency Declarations. We recommend you check each State's Web site and search for "Issued Emergency Declarations" if you are interested in more details. For those carriers or drivers interested in providing services or who need to understand FMCSA regulations, the following applies.


Federal Emergency Declarations by FMCSA
Description: Extension And Amendment of the Modified Emergency Declaration No. 2020-002 Under 49 CFR § 390.25 (May 27, 2022)
Effective: 06/01/2022 | Expires on: 08/31/2022; In accordance with 49 CFR § 390.25, this extension and amendment of the modified Emergency Declaration No. 2020-002 is effective at 12:00 A.M. (ET), June 1, 2022, and shall remain in effect until 11:59 P.M. (ET), August 31, 2022, unless modified or terminated sooner by FMCSA.

 

psychgirl

Has No Life - Lives on TB

Seeker22

Veteran Member
If you follow that tweet to the news story linked within it, the article shows the medical supplies that man used to help his lesions heal.
That alone is really good information as to what supplies are needed.
I went down that long, painful line of comments and didn't find it? Perhaps the supplies list was deleted?
 
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