GOV/MIL Main "Great Reset" Thread

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Third of Global Population Killed in Next War Cycle – Charles Nenner 40:25 min

Greg Hunter's USAWatchdog.com Published May 17, 2022

Third of Global Population Killed in Next War Cycle – Charles Nenner
By Greg Hunter On May 17, 2022 In Political Analysis No Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner says his analysis shows the world will start a huge war cycle by 2023. This type of war is similar to WWII but much bigger.

Nenner explains, “The cycle work I do on wars starts at the Mandarin Empire 3,000 years before Jesus came into this world. The long cycle only picks up the big wars. Wars in Korea and Iraq do not show up. So, I say the big War Cycle is up, and this is going to be a big war because the small ones don’t even show up. So, I am very worried. . . . There was a Jewish prophet that once said, ‘The last war is going to take 8 minutes.’ Nobody took this serious because how can a war last 8 minutes? Now we have an idea why a war can only take 8 minutes. Things could calm down in the short term this summer. Then, next year, it can start full force again, and the whole thing is very dangerous.”

How many casualties will there be in the next world war? Nenner estimates, “It’s very interesting how you calculate something like that. It’s the same way you calculate a cycle in IBM. When you see IBM going down, you can get an upside price target, which we have. You can do the same thing on the war cycle. About one third of the population is not going to survive in this world.”

So, more than 2.5 billion people are going to die in the next world war that is just around the corner? Nenner says, “Yes, the numbers say if you have a world war, it’s going to take out 1/3 of the population.”

On the financial front, Nenner says, “There is a catastrophe going on in bonds. They lost their capital and are not going to get it back. It’s the same thing that is happening in stocks.”

Nenner advised to get out of both the bond and stock markets at the beginning of the year, and he was on target. Nenner predicts it’s going to get worse for stocks and bonds. Nenner says the next downside target is “15,000 on the DOW,” and it will eventually hit around “5,000 on the DOW.”

Nenner says food will never be cheaper and expects food shortages and big price increases for years into the future. Nenner also says he thinks oil will keep rising and will hit $150 per barrel, and it could eventually hit “$250” per barrel.

Nenner is still long term bullish on gold and says it will hit “$2,500” in the not-too-distant future. Nenner says if the world goes back on a gold standard, “gold will hit $40,000 per ounce.”

Nenner says people who are getting a pension should expect big cuts in the future and also expect big inflation too. It will be the worst of both worlds.

On top of that, expect civil unrest in America to keep growing.

 

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Mapping a Digital Dystopia - Chronicles

In Atlas of AI, Kate Crawford explores the many ways our social structures are disturbingly affected by the rise of technocracy, from the environment to the workplace to corporate and governmental surveillance and data collection.

chroniclesmagazine.org

Mapping a Digital Dystopia
MAY 1, 2022BY JOE ALLEN

Atlas of AI: Power, Politics, and the Planetary Costs of Artificial Intelligence
by Kate Crawford
Yale University Press

Electronics have completely reshaped the cultural landscape. Recent decades saw a global shift in social interaction from the visceral to the virtual. Intellectual life has moved from the printed page to the glowing screen. If young people want a career that will remain relevant, they’re well advised to study information technology. Meanwhile, traditional modes of life are discarded in an accelerating race toward an imagined future.

Throughout this rapid transition, no prospect has inspired as much mystique and wild speculation as artificial intelligence (AI). Theoretically, sensation and complex thought—the reasoning faculty that defines the human mind—can be enacted in silicon-based processors just as well as in neurons. Moreover, pure electronic cognition is far faster, allegedly unbiased, and potentially richer and more accurate than any human brain. Having captured our perpetual gaze, the luminous robot is now looking back at us.

Thankfully, Kate Crawford lassos this ethereal idea of synthetic intelligence and pulls it back to earth. Her central argument is that “AI is neither artificial nor intelligent.” She traces the origins of machine learning systems to the mining and industrial operations that formed them. Most importantly, she accurately describes how the innovators’ idealism leads ultimately to dehumanization for regular people.

Unfortunately, her gratuitous use of the language of social justice to indict AI will alienate those who prefer that she stick to reasoned argument over academic virtue-signaling. Indeed, as Crawford laments all the ways AI enables mass surveillance, labor exploitation, and digital manipulation of behavior, she’s mainly concerned with its effect on women and “people of color.” One gets the sense that white males are magically shielded from technocratic predation. Nevertheless, if the reader extracts her rigorous analysis from its politically correct matrix, one finds a detailed map of the technological systems that control our lives.

Crawford opens the book with one of her strongest arguments: AI’s effect on the environment. Cataloging digital culture’s environmental impacts, from worldwide lithium-mining to the electricity hogged by sprawling data centers, she gives the lie to Big Tech’s promises of “carbon neutrality” and “sustainability.” Tons of waste materials produced by ravenous mineral extraction—particularly acidic and radioactive byproducts of mining—are dumped into water supplies. China is a major culprit in this toxic practice, being the source of some 95 percent of rare-earth minerals.

Tech companies’ electricity consumption is just as conspicuous. Energy-intensive operations like natural language processing, cloud computing, and mass data analysis burn ungodly amounts of coal and natural gas. For the most part, Crawford scolds Google, Amazon, and Microsoft for their elephantine carbon footprints. Regardless of one’s stance on anthropogenic climate change, she shines a withering light on “green tech” hypocrisy.

Crawford also scrutinizes Big Tech’s predatory labor practices, both in-house and out-sourced. Unsurprisingly, Amazon catches most of the flak. If the reader can get past her repeated accusations of systemic racism and sexism, Crawford’s portrayal of hapless Amazon “associates” slaving away in micromanaged fulfillment centers is the stuff of nightmares. Amazon’s relentless robot overlords and saccharine sloganeering—“Bias for action,” “Earn trust of others”—could drive the most industrious of workers to just stay home and collect his universal basic income.

The section on “Prehistories of Workplace AI” traces the origin of Amazon’s digital work efficiency panopticon back to the 18th-century inspection house, pioneered by the British naval engineer Samuel Bentham. By situating managers on elevated platforms in the center of a factory, Bentham ensured workers could be constantly surveilled for laziness and bad habits. Over time, the inspection house model would be applied to prisons, warehouses, and elsewhere. Today, with the advent of ubiquitous cameras, listening devices, and online tracking, the inspection house is expanding into every facet of our professional and private lives.

Invoking a poetic analogy, Crawford portrays mass surveillance and data-mining as ideological extensions of unchecked mineral extraction. In order for artificial intelligence systems to attain a nuanced model of the world—particularly human life—machine learning algorithms must consume massive amounts of data. Most of it comes from the images and text that people freely share across the Internet: endless social media posts, news articles, private messages, and so on. In the age of AI, data is the new oil.

Drawing another parallel, Crawford points out that mug shot portfolios released online by law enforcement agencies were among the first data sets used to hone facial recognition software. Today, most of our faces are posted online, recorded via closed-circuit television, and scraped up to “teach” algorithms the nuances of facial recognition. These AI systems also “learn” to characterize our identities. More advanced systems are “trained” to evaluate emotional states—happy or sad; benign or threatening.

This rampant data extraction has culminated in both overt and de facto social credit scores. In our newly technocratic society, even normal citizens are treated like prisoners; they are scanned, labeled, and herded by machines according to the whims of those in power.

This is where Crawford succumbs to two serious weaknesses. First, she’s hyperfocused on how technocratic social systems dehumanize and misidentify minorities. She ignores the fact that the digital security state is mainly interested in cracking down on those labeled “racists” and “right-wing extremists.” Second, as she describes the application of facial recognition to correctly identify terrorists, illegal immigrants, and criminals en masse, she tempts the reader to conclude that maybe technocracy isn’t so bad after all.

In a sense, this ambiguity pervades The Atlas of AI. On the one hand, the ingenious innovations and elegant mechanisms of Silicon Valley are awe-inspiring, whatever their potential dangers. It’s incredible that computer scientists have created neural networks that can learn on their own, analyze massive data sets that no human could comprehend, perform precision tasks such as aerial dogfighting maneuvers or heart surgery, and to some extent, develop what appear to be virtual personalities of their own.

On the other hand, these technologies naturally lead toward a digital dystopia, at least for those subject to the machines. Already, the mass deployment of artificial intelligence systems—unencumbered by serious government regulations or even a basic respect for personal autonomy—threatens our human dignity. Our private lives are regularly invaded without a second thought. Our choices are increasingly guided—or determined—by alien algorithms.

In a world where machines are the highest power, traditional cultures have little hope of survival. So what are organic human beings supposed to do? Do we fight or submit? Is there even a possibility for compromise?

Crawford is rightly skeptical of the concept of “ethical AI.” She concludes that

the infrastructures and forms of power that enable and are enabled by AI skew strongly toward the centralization of control.… [T]he master’s tools will never dismantle the master’s house.

But she also refuses to accept the “dogma of inevitability.” She thinks humankind can prevail by “bringing together issues of climate justice, labor rights, racial justice, data protection, and the overreach of police and military power.” Were it not for her tired buzzwords and lefty bias, I’d like to agree with some of that, too.

But this brings us to a third weakness in Crawford’s book. The rapid advance of artificial intelligence, robotics, and digital saturation has so much momentum, it may as well be a force of nature. Any real resistance would require mass rejection across society, and probably state intervention. Ongoing antitrust efforts are encouraging, but they won’t halt the world-shaking projects underway in Silicon Valley, and certainly not in Tel Aviv, Taiwan, or Shenzhen. Sufficient political consensus seems unlikely in the fragmenting West, just as state intervention is laughable in the overtly technocratic East.

For those who abhor a world ruled by algorithms and automation, the most realistic approach may be to jump out of this freight train’s path—if only to regroup—rather than to waste energy on feeble attempts to derail it. With that caveat, Kate Crawford’s book succeeds in its primary goal. She draws a detailed map of the technologies disrupting our established social orders—from private life to vocation to sacred values. Unfortunately, as we trace a line to the edge of her atlas, no clear escape route comes into view.
Image courtesy of Piqsels (public domain)

 

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36 cities chosen to chart a course towards the future

The World Economic Forum has chosen the cities to pioneer a global policy roadmap developed by its G20 Smart Cities Alliance for the ethical and responsible use of data and technology.

www.smartcitiesworld.net

36 cities chosen to chart a course towards the future
Demographic change18 Nov 2020by SmartCitiesWorld news team

The World Economic Forum has chosen the cities to pioneer a global policy roadmap developed by its G20 Smart Cities Alliance for the ethical and responsible use of data and technology.

The roadmap aims to provide cities with a global framework to use data and technology
Thirty-six cities across 22 countries and six continents have agreed to pioneer a new roadmap for safely adopting new technology as part of the World Economic Forum’s G20 Global Smart Cities Alliance.

The roadmap is designed to give cities the procedures, laws and regulations they need to use new technology responsibly. The initiative originated in Japan last year from WEF’s Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

The cities will adopt policies for privacy protection, better broadband coverage, accountability for cybersecurity, increased openness of city data, and better accessibility to digital city services for disabled and elderly people

Confronting the challenges

Cities are facing urgent challenges from the Covid-19 pandemic and other major disruptions, which WEF highlights is expected to culminate in a budget crisis that could reach $1trillion in the US alone.

The forum contends that cities need data and innovation to become more resilient, responsive and efficient but highlights that there is no global framework for how they should use these technologies, or the data they collect, in a way that protects the public interest.

“This roadmap is not about theoretical ideas and pipe dreams, it is built on practical, real-world policies from leading cities around the globe,” said Jeff Merritt, head of the Internet of Things and urban transformation, World Economic Forum. “City governments are on the frontline of a global crisis and need to be able to act quickly and decisively to curtail this pandemic and set course for their economic recovery.

“This roadmap is not about theoretical ideas and pipe dreams, it is built on practical, real-world policies from leading cities around the globe”

“Technology is an essential tool in this fight but governments cannot risk falling into the usual traps related to privacy, security and vendor lock-in. That’s where the G20 Global Smart Cities Alliance can help.”

WEF has chosen the 36 “pioneer cities” that will kickstart the roadmap and will collaborate with global experts to enhance their city policies, in areas ranging from privacy protection and cybersecurity to better services for disabled people and better broadband coverage.

The pioneer cities are launching their activities at the online global event Smart City Live 2020, broadcast by Smart City Expo World Congress on 17-18 November.

The 36 pioneer cities

The pioneer cities are: Apeldoorn, Netherlands; Barcelona, Spain; Belfast, UK; Bengaluru, India; Bilbao, Spain; Bogotá, Colombia; Brasilia, Brazil; Buenos Aires, Argentina; Chattanooga, US; Cordoba, Argentina; Daegu, South Korea; Dubai, UAE; eThekwini (Durban), South Africa; Faridabad, India; Gaziantep, Turkey; Hamamatsu, Japan; Hyderabad, India; Indore, India; Istanbul, Turkey; Kaga, Japan; Kakogawa, Japan; Kampala, Uganda; Karlsruhe, Germany; Leeds, UK; Lisbon, Portugal; London, UK; Maebashi, Japan; Manila, Philippines; Medellín, Colombia; Melbourne, Australia; Mexico City, Mexico; Milan, Italy; Moscow, Russia; Newcastle, Australia; San José, US; and Toronto, Canada.

“Technology and knowledge are two strategic assets to build inclusive, data-driven, and sustainable smart cities capable of tackling new and emerging challenges,” said Roberta Cocco, deputy mayor for digital transformation and services to citizens, Milan. “That is why Milan is joining the G20 Global Smart City Alliance, as this initiative will allow us to share best practices with innovative cities around the world.

“Technology and knowledge are two strategic assets to build inclusive, data-driven, and sustainable smart cities capable of tackling new and emerging challenges”

“Today more than ever, in fact, we need to collaborate with each other to identify the most effective tools to face global threats like Covid-19. It is only by joining our forces that we can beat this common enemy that is threatening the health, the economy, and the future of our citizens.”

Several orgnisations are also participating in the project, including engineering, architectural and consultancy firm, Arup. The company’s digital services leader Will Cavendish said Covid-19 has driven a step-change in the use of digital services in cities, and many of these changes will only accelerate beyond the pandemic.

He added: “The policies developed by the G20 Smart Cities Alliance will be fundamental in ensuring that the enabling digital connectivity and data infrastructures, along with the rapidly-emerging technology-enabled services, are deployed in an inclusive, transparent and mutually beneficial manner.”

 

[marsh]

Joe Allen on Elon, Twitter, and the AI of the Future 9:23 min

Joe Allen on Elon, Twitter, and the AI of the Future
Bannons War Room Published May 17, 2022

(War Room did not post notes and I didn't watch)

 

[marsh]

(Wow ! Every respect for the Archbishop)

Archbishop Carlo Maria Vigano, the man who exposed the popes pedophilia, has a message for all 13:07 min

ARCHBISHOP CARLO MARIA VIGANO, THE MAN WHO EXPOSED THE POPES PEDOPHILIA, HAS A MESSAGE FOR ALL

• WATCH

(Global coups d'eta and a World War and the enemies are us. Proposes an anti-globalist alliance. The Archbishop says it like it is.)

 

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Sri Lanka: The People decide, Enough is Enough and take it to the streets .20 min

SRI LANKA: THE PEOPLE DECIDE, ENOUGH IS ENOUGH AND TAKE IT TO THE STREETS

• WATCH

 

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View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EwoTRnEAzM
6:30 min

How the WHO's 'pandemic treaty' could CONTROL governments

May 17, 2022


Glenn Beck

On May 22nd, the World Health Assembly — which is the governing body of The World Health Organization — will meet in Switzerland to discuss next steps for its ‘pandemic treaty [and its] quest to use public health to expand The WHO’s power over sovereign states,’ Daniel Horowitz reports for TheBlaze. He explains how certain amendments to be added to this treaty could ‘allow the director-general of the WHO to declare a public health emergency in a country and unilaterally coerce its citizens to take certain actions.’ The far-left and global elite continue to destroy our sovereignty, Glenn says, and this is just one more step toward their desired global government. Read more: https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowi...

 

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View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzTRCDI3P4s
33:17 min

Biden Ministry Of Truth Director HAS RESIGNED, DHS Board SUSPENDED In Shame, Democrat Media OUTRAGED


Tim Pool

Biden Ministry Of Truth Director HAS RESIGNED, DHS Board SUSPENDED In Shame, Democrat Media OUTRAGED. Democrats are in panic over the midterms and even Bill Maher insulted them over this. Nina Jankowicz is out following a disgraceful resignation after it emerged she had spread untold amounts of disinformation herself. The paradoxical appointment was met with harsh criticism and some argue the Democrats and Biden feared a constitutional backlash over policing information. With the 2022 midterms only 6 months out Democrats are struggling to find their identity and are just flopping around confused.

 

[marsh]

Burying Democracy Under the Guise of Health: MEP Anderson Reveals the True Motives Behind the WHO Treaty 5:19 min

Burying Democracy Under the Guise of Health: MEP Anderson Reveals the True Motives Behind the WHO Treaty
The Vigilant Fox Published May 18, 202

"If you give executive powers to a non elected body, then you no longer have democracy; you no longer have accountability of elected officials, and who will the citizens hold accountable for taking away their rights?"

"You're taking away the rule by the people, for the people. That's what you take away with this. And people need to understand. If this treaty goes through, you can bury democracy altogether."

"You need to see the big picture, the goal of all of this. It's abolition of democracy, taking away your freedom, and it's no longer to having abide by the rule of law. That's what they're trying to do."

 

[marsh]

​

​ Michael Yon @MichaelYon​ May 18, 2022 at 6:52am​

Sri Lanka Checkmate -- fooled into going 'organic,' now they will starve to death​ Sri Lanka is in the famine death spiral. Too far gone to avoid impact. When I was there in Sri Lanka, food was bountiful. If USA runs out of fuel or suffers significant power outages, worse shall befall us. We are under attack. My estimate is there will be no real mid-term elections in United States. OGUS is making revolution and using energy and food as WMD just as Mao and Stalin did same, killing tens of millions. The idea that famines always collapse governments is false. CCP is still in power and making lockdowns 60 years after the famines. Stalin and Mao used the famines as WMD to take more power and it worked. It's working in United States for similar reasons. By the time the average Dodo bird wakes up, he's already down to the bird-feed in his pockets and is too weak and slow to organize. The death spiral has begun. Now come reports Sri Lanka not planting. This is a normal famine progression. Sri Lanka is not even in famine yet. Conditions continue to set. Sri Lanka will be into cannibalism by end of 2022 unless serious external help arrives. By who? Soon, Sri Lanka will be just one of many. Remember that famine creates more famine. Sri Lanka is not yet into famine. Outer edges of the normal spiral. According to this report, some farmers have stopped planting: Sri Lanka faces ‘man-made’ food crisis as farmers stop planting Once self-sufficient nation reels from fall-out of ill-conceived shift to organic agriculture, economic crisis. www.aljazeera.com Sri Lanka faces ‘man-made’ food crisis as farmers stop planting Once self-sufficient nation reels from fall-out of ill-conceived shift to organic agriculture, compounded by fuel shortages. Mahinda Samarawickrema says his banana crop may fail because of a lack of chemical fertilisers [Zaheena Rasheed/ Al Jazeera] By Zaheena Rasheed and Rathindra Kuruwita Published On 18 May 202218 May 2022 Walsapugala, Sri Lanka – Mahinda Samarawickrema, 49, will not be planting paddy this season. After a government ban on chemical fertilisers cut his rice yield in half during the March harvest, the farmer, who owns eight hectares (20 acres) of paddy and banana, said he no longer has the income to maintain a farm. Especially as his banana crop also looks set to fail. “It’s a total loss,” the father of five said in mid-April, standing in a field of stunted banana trees in Sri Lanka’s southern Hambantota district. “When I look at this, I know I cannot get the usual yield.” By this time of the year, most of Samarawickrema’s trees should be twice their height and in bloom, but only a few of the 1,300 trees in the weed-strewn fields have any flowers. The famer says he used to get up to 37,000kg (81,571 pounds) of bananas a year, but this time, he expects only 6,000kg (13,228 pounds). “Everything has collapsed,” he said. “I don’t know what to do, but to look up at the sky, look down at the ground and just wait.” Most smallholder farmers in Samarawickrema’s Walsapugala village also say they will not be irrigating their fields in the current growing season, which runs from May to August and is known as the Yala season. They say the fertiliser ban induced crop failures, coming amid nationwide fuel shortages, make farming untenable. “There’s no point in farming any more,” said KA Sumanadasa, who grows brinjals (aubergine) on a his quarter of a hectare (0.6-acre) field. Taking out a bag of puny vegetables, many streaked with fungus, the 70-year-old says the switch to organic agriculture has brought down his yield from 400kg (882 pounds) per season to 50kg (110 pounds). With this output, Sumanadasa said he cannot recover the money he has invested in his farm. “I can’t take the risk of farming now. I will only be growing enough to feed my family.” Farmers in Walsapugala say they do not plan to irrigate their fields in the current season [Zaheena Rasheed/ Al Jazeera] The Movement for Land and Agricultural Reform (MONLAR), a non-government organisation, says most smallholder farmers in the surrounding Hambantota district, and in key agricultural regions in the north, such as Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa districts, are also halting operations this season. That could leave Sri Lanka, which is already grappling with shortages of imported foodstuffs amid its worst-ever economic crisis, facing widespread shortages of domestically grown and produced food, too. “There will be a very hard period in the coming few months in terms of the food aspect,” said Gamini Senanayake, president of the Sri Lanka Council for Agricultural Research Policy. “There will be food shortages … We have to be prepared.” Fertiliser ban An island nation of 22 million people, Sri Lanka used to be self-sufficient in food. But President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s drive to make the country the world’s first to fully adopt organic agriculture – by banning all synthetic agrochemicals, including fertilisers and pesticides – has proved disastrous for Sri Lanka’s food security. Sold as a bid to improve soil health and tackle a mysterious kidney disease among farmers that is believed to be linked to excessive nitrate exposure, the ban was imposed overnight in May of last year. The country’s 2 million farmers, who make up 30 percent of its labour force and who until then were dependent on subsidised chemical fertilisers, suddenly found themselves left to their own devices. They said the government neither increased production of organic fertiliser nor imported sufficient soil nutrients to meet their needs. The result has been a dramatic fall in agricultural output during the growing season that ended in March, known locally as the Maha season. Official figures are not yet available for the Maha harvest, but experts estimate a drop of between 20 to 70 percent, depending on the crop. For rice, a staple of the Sri Lankan diet, output fell by between 40 and 50 percent nationwide during Maha, according to estimates. The drop has resulted in the island nation importing some 300,000 metric tonnes of rice in the first three months of the year – a sharp rise compared with the 14,000 metric tonnes it imported in 2020. View: https://youtu.be/mLleZNNOa9s 8:54 min All of this comes as Sri Lanka also reels from a foreign exchange crisis that has left the government unable to pay for essential imports, including fuel and medicines. Shortages have led to sky-high inflation, long queues for diesel, rolling electricity cuts of up to 13 hours and warnings of a “catastrophic number of deaths” from doctors. Tens of thousands of people have also taken to the streets in protest, blaming government mismanagement for Sri Lanka’s woes and demanding that Rajapaksa and his powerful brothers step down from their government posts. As protests intensified, the president’s brothers, Basil Rajapaksa and Chamal Rajapaksa, as well as his nephew Namal Rajapaksa quit the cabinet in March. Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, another brother of the president, was also forced to resign earlier this month after a night of deadly riots, during which protesters set fire to properties linked to the Rajapaksa family and other governing party politicians. The president, however, has continued to reject calls for his resignation. He previously denied any responsibility for Sri Lanka’s economic crisis, blaming it on the country’s high debt burden and the COVID-19 pandemic, which hit its lucrative tourism sector hard. But as public anger grew, the president admitted on April 18 that he had made “mistakes” that need to be “rectified”. His government has since turned to the International Monetary Fund for a bailout and promised to reinstate subsidies on fertilisers, although it is yet to provide any details of the policy. “The president has agreed that the shift to organics was done too hastily. We have understood the errors and we will provide the fertiliser required by the farmers soon,” Janaka Wakkumbura, who was appointed as agriculture minister in April, told Al Jazeera in early May. Wakkambura, who has since stepped down, also said that “The World Bank has given us money to buy fertiliser and a few other agencies and countries are to help us too”. He did not provide further details. ‘Man-made disaster’ But with Sri Lanka’s foreign reserves having dwindled to $1.8bn at the end of April and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushing up fertiliser prices in the world market, experts said it is not clear how the government can afford to import enough soil nutrients for its two million farmers, much less subsidise them. Lionel Weerakoon, former senior scientist at Sri Lanka’s Department of Agriculture, said the government and private parties had spent about $259m on importing fertiliser in 2020. The bill for 2021 could be between $300m-440m and potentially double that this year. “The situation is even worse now because Russia, Belarus and China have limited fertiliser exports. If we are to purchase a similar quantity of fertiliser as we did in 2020, we might have to spend $600m,” he said. “The overall management of the country under this government has been disastrous.” View: https://youtu.be/NnZ192g4fcQ 1:49 min Experts are now predicting even greater hardship in Sri Lanka. Food inflation, which is currently hovering at about 30 percent, could rise even further. “Food availability is at a crossroads and food accessibility is at a crossroads,” said Jeewika Weerahewa, professor of agriculture at the University of Peradeniya in Sri Lanka. Describing Sri Lanka’s food crisis as “a man-made disaster,” she said the country will have “serious problems with respect to childhood malnourishment and malnutrition among pregnant women and lactating mothers”. She added, “In the next four to six months, I think we will be facing more hardship than what we face right now.” Back in Walsapugala, farmers said they are worried about the future. Despite the government reversing its ban on agrochemicals, they said they are unable to find adequate fertiliser supplies or afford the market-rate prices. “Our lifestyle has been destroyed,” said Ajith Kumar, who like Samarawickrema, grows bananas. “We are relatively small-scale farmers,” he said. “We don’t have any savings. We sustain ourselves from this land. But because we are unable to afford farming, we now have no way to pay back our loans and no way to pay for our children’s education. “There’s no hope for us.” ​

 

[marsh]

Michael Yon @MichaelYon​ May 18, 2022 at 2:40pm​

The Bell Tolls for Sri Lanka​ 18 May 2022 Panama City, Panama Mind Dump, Sans Ediit This UFO stuff is distraction. Interesting — SQUIRREL — just before millions of Americans die in a cannibal-ridden famine. I am suspicious of news outlets who suddenly are trying to shift attention to UFOs and their latest race baiting. Among many dozens of other countries, United States shaping up for actual famine. Interesting how breadbaskets sometimes do this…like Henan Province, or Ukraine. “We’ll never go into famine! We feed the world!” Wrong. Last time I was in places like Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh, they had plenty of food, cheap, everywhere. When Bangladesh, India, others in South Asia collapse, they will splash over to Burma, Thailand. I been warning Thais including personally a Prime Minister for years. South Asia is a food time bomb. I spent years running around there. Unless the UFOs have food and energy, or are coming to steal it, ET can stand in line. United States set to explode. Canada better lock the door. Lol. Canada. They exist because we allow it. CCP could move into there. The Bell Tolls -- I made this photograph in Sri Lanka in the Christ Church Mutwal in Colombo, established 1854. I paid the bell banger to let me photograph the bell and gears. This was just after I left Afghanistan in 2011. I sensed Sri Lanka would pop some day. India and Bangladesh will, too. ​

 

[marsh]

Alfie Oakes of Seed to Table Talks Food Inflation and Shortages 6:44 min

Alfie Oakes of Seed to Table Talks Food Inflation and Shortages
Bannons War Room Published May 18, 2022

(Oakes: The left blaming it on Putin or climate change. He thinks that food price increases are being engineered by the globalists. Beef prices are going up, but the cattleman is not getting any more for his livestock - same with the poultry growers, where chicken is up 80%, eggs 120%.

If you look at all these national brands, they are controlled by Vanguard, Blackrock and State street. It is very dangerous - I don't think it is a coincidence. I don't think food inflation has even begun to reach the levels we're going to see here. A lot of these companies contract with WalMart and they have seen a rise in input of costs on packaging, fuel and shipping...

Bannon: Are you saying the the producers aren't seeing a rise in payment for their product because of the costs of inputs - fertilizer , shipping, etc or are you saying Blackrock, etc are undermining corporations because of their ESG policies or is it both?

Oakes: I'm saying that someone is making the money. There is something going on when they're charging this much more. I believe Tyson, which processes the beef, if making more than ever. Look at their earnings - their P&L, they are making more than ever. The farmers aren't making it and the big problem is most of these companies are on contract. By quarter 4,
these companies that have been selling their product to Walmart - not only are they going to hedge for the losses they've incurred over the last few months, but they're going to behedging again. You're going to see, in quarter 4 of this year and in 2023, prices like you've never seen before and I don't think the American people are going to be ready for it.

Bannon: Are you saying that because they've got these contracts and these guys are going to get wiped unless their hedged, in the 3-4 quarter you're going to see even more explosive food inflation in the stores than you're seeing now?

Oakes: Absolutely. He is going out to the food shows and seeing what he's going to have to pay for the product in the 4th quarter and the increase is as much as what he is selling it for right now. We are going to see massive increases. If people are alarmed right now, I can tell them that this is only the beginning.

Alfie Oakes for America

Alfie Oakes is an American farmer, businessman and politician. He is the founder of Oakes Farms, one of the largest independently owned agribusiness operations in South Florida. Learn more...

alfieforamerica.com

Oakes: He says he is one of the largest vegetable growers in Florida and they are cutting back in growing because of the input costs. He would be happy to go into that further at another time.)

(Comment: this last sentence is important. There will be less coming into the pipeline because less will be grown because of the cost of inputs; or drought, floods, disease; or lower yields due to the cost of fertilizer. Imports will be less because of the Ukrainian War and countries blocking exports. The US will continue to export crude and crops and will likely be called upon to use its wheat reserves to help with African famine and the resultant migrant crisis. Then, like Iran, the Western countries will require a digital id to implement a government food rationing system. They will usher in central bank digital currency and a social credit score in order to get food.)

 

[marsh]

Michael Yon @MichaelYon​ May 18, 2022 at 8:31pm​

The Coming American Famine is Orchestrated​ Remember the long list of ‘crazy’ that is now common knowledge. Remember when Preppers were labeled fringe, extremist, and kooky? Those who are not Preppers now are flaming morons. Dodo birds. Please excuse me but we are going war and famine. We don’t have time for foggy words or foggy minds. Get them out of your life. Pull into the core. Concentrate on the core. Work on the core network and remember the first rule of Fight Club.​

 

[marsh]

Darren Beattie: DHS “Ministry of Truth” Put “On Pause”

Darren Beattie: DHS “Ministry of Truth” Put “On Pause”

rumble.com

14:57 min

Darren Beattie: DHS “Ministry of Truth” Put “On Pause”
Bannons War Room Published May 18, 2022

(No synopsis given. Did not have time to watch.)

 

[marsh]

(I have two Walsh videos that I have not yet "noted" and intend to go back and do so this evening.)

Dave Walsh on American Energy and Ag: The Policies Make No Sense 5:08 min

(Bannon: I believe Sri Lanka is now out of oil. What is happening in Sri Lanka foretells what can happen elsewhere and they are right next to India. What is happening in Texas?

Dave Walsh: We talked about India last week and two of the places to which they export wheat are Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. 3.2 billion people in the world consuming electricity at a US level at about the year1925, those people will be hit by far the worst in these kinds of times. A study has been done that for every 1% price uplift in the price of food, 16 million people more globally will go on on the food insecure list or begin starving. Right now the Administration is adding soy beans to the list of things to be produced, lower cost, such as ethanol with corn. We sacrifice about 700 million people in the world who could be fed based on the corn we divert in so that 10% of our gasoline supply can be "green" -can be ethanol based. So the policies that we're looking at just make no sense.

Bannon: What's happening in Texas - they're taking generators off the grid with the hot weather. Do we have an energy problem in Texas?

Walsh: There is a significant problem. If you look at the Texas model, because of the lack of a capacity payment structure in ERCOT, which is the Texas grid. That is a structure that allows no incentive for building a baseload/continuous duty plants - like gas ones, coal, nuclear. The market shifted heavily to wind.

Texas is 27% dependent upon wind resources for its basic electrical energy, which leads to tremendous instability in its grid. Texas reserve margins are only 8-9%. Nationally, reserve margins are 27%. that's the amount of generating capacity that states have to exceed their demand. So in the worst peak times, mid-summer and mid-winter, places like down here in the southeast there is enough reserve to withstand the worst peak times in the year. Texas has 1/3 of the reserve margin if the rest of the states, minus California. Their heavy dependence on wind power leads to shortages and brownouts in times when it becomes excessively warm in the summer.

This is because of a policy they pursued on not inducing spending on convention baseload power generating facilities. California is in a far worse position with that. California, Texas, Australia are plagued with brownouts due to dependence upon intermittent, non-reliable
solar and wind resources to the extent of 15-18%, Texas 27% or more, of their power portfolio. That's not a sustainable mix of power resources.

Bannon: Has there been any easing on the crisis with diesel? On the east coast with the truckers, people are starting to get slightly worried, if not panicked about what is happening.

Walsh: No, we're still about a 4 days supply in the pipeline of diesel fuel compared to the historical 17-18 days. 50 million barrels generally in inventory nationally. We are down to about 12 million barrels,. That hasn't relaxed. Prices continue to rise. We're in about the $118 dollar range. Diesel fuel is still in short supply.

@davewalshenergy on GETTR

 

[marsh]

Aus. Sen. Alex Antic on the International Ceding of Sovereignty to WHO 4:16 min

Aus. Sen. Alex Antic on the International Ceding of Sovereignty to WHO
Bannons War Room Published May 18, 2022 1,106 Views

(no summary provided. No time for notes.)

 

[marsh]

Democrat Rep In Biden's Backyard Amazed By What He Sees At The Grocery Store In Maryland .13 min

Democrat Rep In Biden's Backyard Amazed By What He Sees At The Grocery Store In Maryland
Red Voice Media Published May 18, 2022

So in other words, Democrat policies are proven not to work yet again...

(He is amazed at the bareness of the shelves.)

^^^^
Democrat Rep Seems Shocked When She Did A Side By Side Comparison On The Cost Of Her Groceries .18 min

Democrat Rep Seems Shocked When She Did A Side By Side Comparison On The Cost Of Her Groceries
Red Voice Media Published May 18, 2022

"I actually recently did a side by side of my grocery bill from a month ago from six months ago to today..." (all but 2 things she buys on a regular basis had gone up in cost.)

 

[Dozdoats]

Thanks as always, Marsh. Critical stuff ...

 

[marsh]

"Tedros Is Basically a Communist Thug," and Like Bill Gates, He Has No Medical Training 1:27 min

"Tedros Is Basically a Communist Thug," and Like Bill Gates, He Has No Medical Training
The Vigilant Fox Published May 18, 2022 64 Views

Dr. Peter Breggin: "He covered up originally for the Wuhan Institute, saying this was not released from the Wuhan Institute, agreeing with China that it wasn't very dangerous, and [allowed China to send] out fleets of airplanes, as a part of normal passenger traffic, from Wuhan and Beijing and other places nonstop to the US. And several hundred thousand passengers were sent out right at the time that COVID-19 was really bursting over China. It was intentionally done."

Full Video: The Deliberate Destruction of the United States to Install a One-World Government: Dr. Peter Breggin Joins Arthur Moore [VIDEO INTERVIEW]

 

[marsh]

Government says the Pamdemic is not over and needs more power 9:50 min

Government says the Pamdemic is not over and needs more power
irnieracing Published May 18, 2022

Leaders want you to know the Pandemic is not over. There will be another "Health Crisis" and we need to spend even more money in the name of "public health".

(Tedros says at the World Health Assembly this month, WHO will present a plan to strengthen the global architecture for health emergency preparedness response. This includes the creation of a financial intermediary fund to support "equitable access" to lifesaving tools in the face of future epidemics and pandemics.

Biden: The fund will be established at the World Bank with $450 million in seed money.

Modi: It is clear that a coordinated global response is required for future health emergencies.

Kamala; Come together to establish new international norms and a common understanding that guide our collective action.

Adern; To strengthen the International Health Regulations and negotiate a new instrument for pandemic prevention and response.

Help get shots in arms and accelerate vaccine uptake to make sure vaccines make it into arms quickly and equitably.

Aus. Prime Minister Moore: The WHO should have the power and authority to come and understand what's going on and assist governments in stopping the spread of major disease. He denounces the idea that a country can prevent WHO from coming in and investigating what looks like something that will break out into a pandemic that could effect the public health and economy of the entire world.

This segment ends around 4:38 min

 

[marsh]

Biden Admin. pushes to hand U.S. sovereignty over to WHO

The Biden administration is "all in" when it comes to decimating U.S. sovereignty, all in the name of world health. One America's Chief White House Correspondent Chanel Rion has more from Washington.

rumble.com

5:58 min
Biden Admin. pushes to hand U.S. sovereignty over to WHO
One America News Network Published May 18, 2022

The Biden administration is "all in" when it comes to decimating U.S. sovereignty, all in the name of world health. One America's Chief White House Correspondent Chanel Rion has more from Washington.

 

[marsh]

Elon Musk, WHO, Sussman AND MORE! (but NO JOHNNY DEPP!) - Viva Frei LIVE 1:58:03 min

Elon Musk, WHO, Sussman AND MORE! (but NO JOHNNY DEPP!) - Viva Frei LIVE
vivafrei Published May 18, 2022 9,534 Views

Viva Frei discusses the WHO proposals and the following article at about the 27:15 min mark to around 56:00 min
^^^^^

Effective post-pandemic governance must focus on shared challenges

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted profound weaknesses in the global governance of health; inadequate preparation, coordination, and accountability hampered the collective response of nations at each stage. Changes to the global health architecture are necessary to mitigate the health and...

www.thelancet.com

Effective post-pandemic governance must focus on shared challenges

• Anne Williamson et al
  
  Published:May 16, 2022DOI:Redirecting

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted profound weaknesses in the global governance of health; inadequate preparation, coordination, and accountability hampered the collective response of nations at each stage. Changes to the global health architecture are necessary to mitigate the health and socioeconomic damage of the ongoing pandemic, and to prepare for the next major global threat to health. Against this backdrop, on April 4, 2022, the London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK, hosted a meeting on the topic, “Paying the Pandemic Piper: Global Health and Economic Security”. The cross-sectoral stakeholders who participated at the meeting arrived at several insights, including the key proposals captured here. We recommend international institutions focus on their core missions and unique capabilities to respond to global externalities—ie, policy areas and challenges where the actions or inaction of any one country affect all global actors.

Within the multilateral space there are many overlapping, fragmented efforts to improve global governance in response to COVID-19, with different actors leading each process. Examples of proposals to improve pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response are shown in the panel.
1,
2,
3,
4,
5
Panel

The 75th World Health Assembly in Geneva, Switzerland, on May 22–28, 2022 is an opportunity to turn these varied proposals into effective action. Success will require clear demarcations of responsibility with a parsimonious role for international institutions. Although a pandemic treaty or alternative new instrument or process cannot solve all that is wrong with global health, it can deliver targeted improvements if supported by effective and clear global governance.

Such a new governance instrument should focus on responsibilities that are truly transnational in nature, meaning it addresses global challenges with causes and consequences that transcend national boundaries.

Importantly, the processes summarised in the panel need to unite these international actors and strengthen their collective efforts rather than reinforce historical silos in global health governance. This collective response means that WHO pandemic treaty negotiations should align with the G20 and World Bank proposals of a Financial Intermediary Fund and a Finance and Health Board.
6

Additionally, many countries are striving to increase domestic health spending, despite the economic damage from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
7

More should be done to align this momentum for increased health spending to make best use of national government resources.

Our core recommendation is for international institutions to focus on fulfilling their unique capabilities by sharing knowledge between countries; pooling resources and distributing benefits equitably between countries; monitoring the preparedness of health systems within and across countries; and convening national actors effectively and in real time.

First, international institutions should synthesise, create, and share knowledge of which health policies work and which do not, rather than trying to duplicate or mandate national actions. For example, different national lockdown policies have had widely divergent benefits and costs, yet there is no repository of global comparative data to analyse the impacts of lockdowns to date.
8
The lockdowns and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have underlined the interdependence between health and economic security. National decision makers need a common language of outcomes to compare the trade-offs within and across sectors. International institutions could support this reframing of interdependent outcomes, with health spending explicitly segmented into health maintenance and health investment so that new opportunities are easily identified.
9
Second, international institutions can pool resources, since aspects of pandemic preparedness and response benefit from economies of scale. For example, platform technologies that enable vaccine research and development could be pooled under a clear global investment framework with guaranteed supply to contributors alongside global equity provisions—although the sustainability of these investments also requires attention on the demand side.
10
Economies of scale are also relevant for public health assets, such as high complexity laboratories, regulatory harmonisation, and medical supplies procurement, with potential for mutually beneficial collaboration.

Third, shared monitoring of the preparedness of national health systems for crises is required, following the model of the G20 Financial Stability Board, which tests financial system resilience so that weaknesses can be addressed.
11
Such a role is suited to a single international body to ensure consistency and transparency, and could be attained by expanding the WHO pilot Universal Health and Preparedness reviews.
2
The International Monetary Fund could also regularly analyse the economic and financial consequences of health challenges, as an input to the proposed G20 Finance and Health Board.
Finally, international institutions have the unique power to convene health, finance, and political actors, but this has not always been done well historically. The proposed G20 Finance and Health Board would strengthen coordination between finance and health, which would be a promising step.
4
However, more could be done in regular forums to strengthen collaboration. One relevant model here is the UN Conference of the Parties, whereby countries make climate pledges and reassess them annually. Participants could then derive financial and non-financial support from parties with mutual benefit. Convening key global actors would also encourage these forums to act on unmet health and economic challenges. Given the potential for disease outbreaks and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) to spread across borders, collaborative action offers regional and global benefits.

Improvements to global governance structures for pandemic preparedness and response will also have benefits for other global health challenges, such as climate change and mass migration.
12
Prevention and detection activities are integral to tackling future pandemics and AMR, and global governance should maximise the shared benefits across these two areas. Health leaders must not squander this opportunity to build a renewed global and national architecture to meet current challenges and those yet to come.

The London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK, hosted a meeting of cross-sectoral stakeholders on the topic, “Paying the Pandemic Piper: Global Health and Economic Security”. We declare no competing interests. The views expressed in this Comment are entirely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the organisations with which they are affiliated. Participants at the meeting also included Chikwe Ihekweazu, Paul Johnson, Ilona Kickbusch, Connor Rochford, and Minouche Shafik. We thank George Wharton for his assistance with preparing this Comment.

References

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[marsh]

ANNOUNCEMENT: I'm going to Davos to report on the World Economic Forum 6:02 min

ANNOUNCEMENT: I'm going to Davos to report on the World Economic Forum
Rebel News Published May 18, 2022

| See our coverage of the WEF annual meeting
Rebel News has tasked five investigative journalists to report on the WEF annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland and I will be representing the United Kingdom.
FULL REPORT: ANNOUNCEMENT: I'm going to Davos to report on the World Economic Forum

 

[marsh]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Get Ready To Be Muzzled: The Coming War On So-Called 'Hate Speech'

WEDNESDAY, MAY 18, 2022 - 09:05 PM

Authored by John W. Whitehead & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

“Whoever would overthrow the liberty of a nation must begin by subduing the freedom of speech.”
- Benjamin Franklin

Beware of those who want to monitor, muzzle, catalogue and censor speech.

Especially be on your guard when the reasons given for limiting your freedoms end up expanding the government’s powers.

In the wake of a mass shooting in Buffalo, NY, carried out by an 18-year-old gunman in military gear allegedly motivated by fears that the white race is in danger of being replaced, there have been renewed calls for social media monitoring, censorship of flagged content that could be construed as dangerous or hateful, and limitations on free speech activities, particularly online.

As expected, those who want safety at all costs will clamor for more gun control measures (if not at an outright ban on weapons for non-military, non-police personnel), widespread mental health screening of the general population and greater scrutiny of military veterans, more threat assessments and behavioral sensing warnings, more surveillance cameras with facial recognition capabilities, more “See Something, Say Something” programs aimed at turning Americans into snitches and spies, more metal detectors and whole-body imaging devices at soft targets, more roaming squads of militarized police empowered to do random bag searches, more fusion centers to centralize and disseminate information to law enforcement agencies, and more surveillance of what Americans say and do, where they go, what they buy and how they spend their time.
All of these measures play into the government’s hands.

As we have learned the hard way, the phantom promise of safety in exchange for restricted or regulated liberty is a false, misguided doctrine that serves only to give the government greater authority to crack down, lock down, and institute even more totalitarian policies for the so-called sake of national security without many objections from the citizenry.

Add the Department of Homeland Security’s “Disinformation Governance Board” to that mix, empower it to monitor online activity and police so-called “disinformation,” and you have the makings of a restructuring of reality straight out of Orwell’s 1984, where the Ministry of Truth polices speech and ensures that facts conform to whatever version of reality the government propagandists embrace.
After all, it’s a slippery slope from censoring so-called illegitimate ideas to silencing truth.

Eventually, as George Orwell predicted, telling the truth will become a revolutionary act.

If the government can control speech, it can control thought and, in turn, it can control the minds of the citizenry.

It’s been a long time since free speech was actually free.

On paper—at least according to the U.S. Constitution—we are technically free to speak.

In reality, however, we are only as free to speak as a government official—or corporate entities such as Facebook, Google or YouTube—may allow.

That’s not a whole lot of freedom, especially if you’re inclined to voice opinions that may be construed as conspiratorial or dangerous.

This steady, pervasive censorship creep clothed in tyrannical self-righteousness and inflicted on us by technological behemoths (both corporate and governmental) is technofascism, and it does not tolerate dissent.

These internet censors are not acting in our best interests to protect us from dangerous, disinformation campaigns. They’re laying the groundwork now to preempt any “dangerous” ideas that might challenge the power elite’s stranglehold over our lives.

The internet, hailed as a super-information highway, is increasingly becoming the police state’s secret weapon. This “policing of the mind” is exactly the danger author Jim Keith warned about when he predicted that “information and communication sources are gradually being linked together into a single computerized network, providing an opportunity for unheralded control of what will be broadcast, what will be said, and ultimately what will be thought.”

What we are witnessing is the modern-day equivalent of book burning which involves doing away with dangerous ideas—legitimate or not—and the people who espouse them.

Where we stand now is at the juncture of OldSpeak (where words have meanings, and ideas can be dangerous) and Newspeak (where only that which is “safe” and “accepted” by the majority is permitted). The power elite has made their intentions clear: they will pursue and prosecute any and all words, thoughts and expressions that challenge their authority.

Having been reduced to a cowering citizenry—mute in the face of elected officials who refuse to represent us, helpless in the face of police brutality, powerless in the face of militarized tactics and technology that treat us like enemy combatants on a battlefield, and naked in the face of government surveillance that sees and hears all—we have nowhere left to go and nothing left to say that cannot be misconstrued and used to muzzle us.

Yet what a lot of people fail to understand, however, is that it’s not just what you say or do that is being monitored, but how you think that is being tracked and targeted.

We’ve already seen this play out on the state and federal level with hate crime legislation that cracks down on so-called “hateful” thoughts and expression, encourages self-censoring and reduces free debate on various subject matter.

With every passing day, we’re being moved further down the road towards a totalitarian society characterized by government censorship, violence, corruption, hypocrisy and intolerance, all packaged for our supposed benefit in the Orwellian doublespeak of national security, tolerance and so-called “government speech.”

Little by little, Americans have been conditioned to accept routine incursions on their freedoms.

This is how oppression becomes systemic, what is referred to as creeping normality, or a death by a thousand cuts.

It’s a concept invoked by Pulitzer Prize-winning scientist Jared Diamond to describe how major changes, if implemented slowly in small stages over time, can be accepted as normal without the shock and resistance that might greet a sudden upheaval.

Diamond’s concerns related to Easter Island’s now-vanished civilization and the societal decline and environmental degradation that contributed to it, but it’s a powerful analogy for the steady erosion of our freedoms and decline of our country right under our noses.

As Diamond explains, “In just a few centuries, the people of Easter Island wiped out their forest, drove their plants and animals to extinction, and saw their complex society spiral into chaos and cannibalism… Why didn’t they look around, realize what they were doing, and stop before it was too late? What were they thinking when they cut down the last palm tree?”

His answer: “I suspect that the disaster happened not with a bang but with a whimper.”

Much like America’s own colonists, Easter Island’s early colonists discovered a new world—“a pristine paradise”—teeming with life. Yet almost 2000 years after its first settlers arrived, Easter Island was reduced to a barren graveyard by a populace so focused on their immediate needs that they failed to preserve paradise for future generations.

The same could be said of the America today: it, too, is being reduced to a barren graveyard by a populace so focused on their immediate needs that they are failing to preserve freedom for future generations.

In Easter Island’s case, as Diamond speculates:

"The forest…vanished slowly, over decades. Perhaps war interrupted the moving teams; perhaps by the time the carvers had finished their work, the last rope snapped. In the meantime, any islander who tried to warn about the dangers of progressive deforestation would have been overridden by vested interests of carvers, bureaucrats, and chiefs, whose jobs depended on continued deforestation… The changes in forest cover from year to year would have been hard to detect… Only older people, recollecting their childhoods decades earlier, could have recognized a difference. Gradually trees became fewer, smaller, and less important. By the time the last fruit-bearing adult palm tree was cut, palms had long since ceased to be of economic significance. That left only smaller and smaller palm saplings to clear each year, along with other bushes and treelets. No one would have noticed the felling of the last small palm.”

Sound painfully familiar yet?

We’ve already torn down the rich forest of liberties established by our founders. It has vanished slowly, over the decades. Those who warned against the dangers posed by too many laws, invasive surveillance, militarized police, SWAT team raids and the like have been silenced and ignored. They stopped teaching about freedom in the schools. Few Americans know their history. And even fewer seem to care that their fellow Americans are being jailed, muzzled, shot, tasered, and treated as if they have no rights at all.

The erosion of our freedoms happened so incrementally, no one seemed to notice. Only the older generations, remembering what true freedom was like, recognized the difference.

Gradually, the freedoms enjoyed by the citizenry became fewer, smaller and less important. By the time the last freedom falls, no one will know the difference.

This is how tyranny rises and freedom falls: with a thousand cuts, each one justified or ignored or shrugged over as inconsequential enough by itself to bother, but they add up.

Each cut, each attempt to undermine our freedoms, each loss of some critical right—to think freely, to assemble, to speak without fear of being shamed or censored, to raise our children as we see fit, to worship or not worship as our conscience dictates, to eat what we want and love who we want, to live as we want—they add up to an immeasurable failure on the part of each and every one of us to stop the descent down that slippery slope.

We are on that downward slope now.

The contagion of fear that has been spread with the help of government agencies, corporations and the power elite is poisoning the well, whitewashing our history, turning citizen against citizen, and stripping us of our rights.

America is approaching another reckoning right now, one that will pit our commitment to freedom principles against a level of fear-mongering that is being used to wreak havoc on everything in its path.

Yet as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, while we squabble over which side is winning this losing battle, a tsunami approaches.

 

[marsh]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Diesel Costs Deliver Body Blow To Trucking Industry, Impacting Broader Economy

WEDNESDAY, MAY 18, 2022 - 04:25 PM
By Noi Mahoney of Freightwaves

With diesel prices remaining elevated — forcing significant costs onto shippers and trucking companies — the impact of fuel costs on inflation could put a dent in consumer spending, according to experts.

Diesel pump prices averaged $5.61 a gallon nationwide, 51% higher than diesel prices across the country in January

Economist Anirban Basu said the elevated price of diesel fuel damages the near-term U.S. economic outlook and “renders the chance of recession in 2023 much greater.”

“These high diesel prices mean that despite the Federal Reserve’s early stage efforts to curb inflationary pressures, for now, inflationary pressures will run rampant through the economy,” Basu, CEO of Baltimore-based Sage Policy Group, told FreightWaves.

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve announced a half-percentage-point increase in interest rates, the largest hike in over two decades. The U.S. inflation rate is at 8.3%, near 40-year highs.

Basu said consumer spending remains strong, even with elevated diesel prices, but that could change as shippers and trucking companies eventually must pass higher fuel costs on to the public.

“One of the things we’ve been seeing in the U.S., particularly on the East Coast, is that diesel fuel inventories have been shrinking, which suggests that despite all this inflationary pressure, there’s still a lot of consumer activity, still lots of trucks on the road and the supply is unable to keep up with demand,” Basu said. “The higher price of diesel fuel will become embedded in the cost of everything consumers purchase.”

Prices of fresh produce rising
Jordan DeWart, a managing director at RedWood Mexico, based in Laredo, Texas, said the types of consumer goods that could be immediately affected by higher diesel prices include fresh produce. Redwood Mexico is part of Chicago-based Redwood Logistics.

“With produce, that’s typically more in the spot rate business, and any of those smaller trucking companies are going to be heavily impacted by fuel costs,” DeWart said.

The U.S. imported more than $15 billion in fresh produce from Mexico in 2021, including avocados, tomatoes, grapes, bell peppers and strawberries, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

“Everything coming northbound from Mexico through Laredo, the rates have been very sustained, but fuel prices keep going up, presumably with any differences being absorbed by the trucking companies in the spot market,” DeWart said. “When we talk to asset-based truckers, especially the smaller companies, they’re really feeling the pinch.”

It’s not only cross-border operators feeling the pinch. Growers and shippers in Texas’ Rio Grande Valley are also suffering because of increased fuel costs, said Dante Galeazzi, president of the Texas International Produce Association (TIPA).

“Our growers, shippers, importers, distributors … basically our entire supply chain has been and continues to be impacted by rising fuel costs,” Galeazzi told FreightWaves. “Between one-third to one-half of the costs for fresh produce is the logistics; you can see how quickly increases in that expense category can impact the base price.”

The Rio Grande Valley is the epicenter of the Lone Star State’s fresh produce industry, stretching across the southeastern tip of Texas along the U.S.-Mexico border. More than 35 types of fruits and vegetables are grown in the valley, which contributes more than $1 billion to the state economy annually.

“More concerning is that this wave of fuel increases is in line with the statistic that our industry is paying anywhere from 70% to 150% more year-over-year for OTR shipping,” Galeazzi said.

TIPA, which is based in Mission, Texas, represents growers, domestic shippers, import shippers, specialty shippers, distributors and material and service providers.

Right now, Rio Grande Valley growers and shippers are absorbing higher input costs instead of passing them on to consumers, but that could soon change, Galeazzi said.

“While the fresh fruit and vegetable industry continues to experience rising input costs across the board (seed, agrochemicals, labor, fuel, packaging, etc.), we have yet to experience sufficient upstream returns associated with those expense increases,” Galeazzi said. “Our industry is citing an 18% to 22% anecdotal increase to overhead costs. Meanwhile food inflation for fresh produce is hovering around 7%. That means the costs are slowly being felt by consumers, but it’s not yet at a commensurate level with input expenses.”

Diesel fuel prices at all time highs
The cost of diesel continues to soar across the country. Diesel pump prices averaged $5.61 a gallon nationwide, according to weekly data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). That’s 51% higher than diesel prices nationwide in January.

California averaged the highest fuel prices across the U.S., at $6 per gallon of gas and $6.56 per gallon for diesel, according to AAA. Diesel prices are also at an all-time high of $6.41 in New York.

The higher prices of diesel fuel and gasoline are being caused by a combination of factors, including surging demand and reduced refining capacity, along with the disruption to global markets caused by COVID-19, the current lockdown in China and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, said Rory Johnston, a managing director at Toronto-based research firm Price Street.

“The overarching oil market is feeling much tighter because of the Russian-Ukraine situation,” Johnston, also writer of the newsletter Commodity Context, told FreightWaves. “What we’ve seen is a larger immediate impact from the loss of Russian refined products; in addition to exporting millions and millions of barrels a day of crude oil, Russia also exported a lot of refined products, most notably middle distillates, like gasoline or diesel.”

Several refineries on the East Coast — including facilities in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada — scaled back during the early days of the pandemic, which has hurt diesel capacity, Johnston said.

“There was also a refinery in Philadelphia that exploded just prior to the COVID-19 period starting,” Johnston said. “There’s not enough refining capacity on the global level, and particularly in the West right now and particularly in the northeastern U.S.”

He said he doesn’t foresee any relief from increasing diesel prices over the next few months or more.

“Things are going to be really tight for at least the next year, barring any kind of economic recession and some kind of demand slowdown materially,” Johnston said.

DeWart said trucking companies that don’t have a fuel surcharge component or contract in place and are depending on spot rates could be in big trouble over the next several months as diesel prices either keep rising or stay higher than average.

“Their fuel costs keep going up, but they’re really not able to negotiate higher rates right now with a really tight spot market,” DeWart said. “It’s really impacting small trucking companies, anyone that decided to kind of play the spot market, rather than being locked in contracted rates. They’re really feeling the pain right now.”

DeWart said for trucking companies, it’s critical to get some type of fuel reimbursement program in place “just to protect themselves in case the cost of fuel goes even higher.”

 

[marsh]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Trucking Stocks Massacred After Target Warns Of $1 Billion In Incremental Freight Costs

WEDNESDAY, MAY 18, 2022 - 11:45 AM

Remember when freight, trucking and logistics data provider Freightwaves warned at the last day of April that a freight recession was imminent and was set to cripple the trucking sector and broader economy (prompted Jim Cramer to declare that "Mr Freightwaves" knows nothing). Well, as always, Cramer was wrong and Freightwaves was right, and today we are seeing nothing short of bloodbath in the trucking and logistics space, where stocks have plunged the most in over six weeks amid weak outlook from several retailers, including Target, which just like Walmart plunged the most since 1987 as inflation crippled its profit margins, and as it warned that fuel and freight costs soared in the first quarter.

How bad is it looking? On the Target earnings call, the COO said the company is now expecting $1 billion in incremental freight costs this year.

The Russell 3000 Index Trucking Subsector (RGUSPTK) dropped over 10% versus a 3.3% drop in the S&P 500 Index, although both are still sliding.



Big decliners on the trucking index include Saia, JB Hunt, ArcBest, Knight-Swift, Werner, Schneider and Old Dominion



The bottom line is that, just as Freightwaves warned two months ago, prices are now so high that demand destruction is crushing margins, with a recession now just a matter of months.

 

[marsh]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Crisis-Hit Sri Lanka Defaults On Debt As It Runs Out Of Fuel

WEDNESDAY, MAY 18, 2022 - 10:10 AM

There's no money to buy petrol, the crisis-hit Sri Lankan government said Wednesday as it urged citizens to "not to wait in line" for fuel, and following violent protests in the streets, which started in early April in the capital of Colombo and quickly spread across the country due to soaring prices amid food and other essential resource shortages like medicine.

On Tuesday the new prime minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe, declared in a television address that Sri Lanka was down to it's "last day of petrol" amid the most severe crisis in over seven decades. He said the country would need an immediate bail-out of at least $75 million of foreign currency just to cover the next few days of essential imports.
Hundreds of petrol stations have seen miles of vehicles backed up, desperate for gas, file image.

He additionally signaled the central bank would be forced to print money if it hoped to pay government wages. Parliament has further been informed that the government has missed its April 18 deadline to pay $78 million in global bonds payments, as well as another $105 million owed to Chinese banks, according to Bloomberg. Wednesday marked the end of a 30-day grace period.

Following the development, Reuters wrote "Sri Lanka is expected to be placed into default by rating agencies on Wednesday after the non-payment of coupons on two of its sovereign bonds."

It's predicted to be just the beginning of a historic default on a total $12.6 billion of overseas bonds - the first such since the small country's independence from Britain in 1948, amid a continued spiral of runaway inflation and foreign exchange squeeze fueled by lack of dollars.

Power and Energy Minister Kanchana Wijesekera told parliament Wednesday, "There aren't enough dollars available to open letters of credit." He explained, "We are working to find funds but petrol will not be available at least until the weekend. The very small reserve stock of petrol is being released for essential services like ambulances," he said.

PM Wickremesinghe followed by saying that an emergency bridge loan of $160 million has been secured from the World Bank - though it wasn't specified if the funds would be used for fuel imports.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526622302389280768

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1526622302389280768
.20 min

He further said in a somewhat ambiguous statement suggesting there's little hope of the government digging the country out of the debt and energy crisis in the near future: "The statistics have gone haywire," and added, "But the reality is we don't even have $1 million."

Political and moneyed elites have been subject of increasingly brazen mob attacks in the last weeks...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524478142634676225

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1524478142634676225
.18 min

Making matters worse, and increasing the likelihood that riots and deadly street protests will continue, central authorities early this week announced the public can expect 15 hours of power cuts a day amid the energy crisis.

Last week protests turned deadly, with reportedly at least nine killed, including a ruling party member of parliament - which resulted in Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa being forced to resign. Thousands of protesters had also breached his residence and office.
* * *
More from Rabobank on the crisis...

Sri Lanka is officially down to its last day of petrol. It was already going hungry – now it will be immobile. Angry people were already burning down politicians’ houses. Now they seem to be attacking anyone looking wealthy. ‘Oh, that’s just Sri Lanka,’ some say. True. But Iran is seeing food protests; so is Tajikistan. Significantly lower bond yields, when oil and food prices are rising and demand is largely inelastic, and “demand destruction” means hunger, is not something that ‘just happens’ like it could when commodity prices were low. Especially not when it also implies a collapse in the stock market and in housing and soaring unemployment to boot. Yes, such a global risk-off phase may be bullish for core bond yields like the US and Germany – but in many places it is a potential disaster. If Wall Street continues to say commodities don’t matter and inflation has peaked, the likelihood is that we will see dozens more African, Middle Eastern, and Asian countries experiencing exactly the same socio-political destabilisation.

 

[marsh]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

How US Trade Policy Is Making The Baby Formula Shortage Worse

WEDNESDAY, MAY 18, 2022 - 08:30 AM
By Eric Kulisch of FreightWaves

Policy analysts say U.S. trade restrictions, including ones engineered under the Trump administration, along with lean manufacturing practices help explain why stores can’t easily replenish stocks of baby formula. The taxes and extra regulatory hoops make it expensive and difficult to import the specialized baby food.
Parents are increasingly frustrated by the nationwide shortage of infant formula
The U.S. produces 98% of the infant formula it consumes, but that self-sufficiency is being tested by limited availability of ingredients because of supply chain disruptions, labor shortages and the February shutdown of Abbott Laboratories’ (NYSE: ABT) Sturgis, Michigan, plant over contamination concerns.

The nationwide out-of-stock average for baby formula reached 43% for the week ending May 8, according to retail technology firm Datasembly. The Biden administration points to other industry data showing an 80% in-stock rate, but with less variety of products than normal.
The Food and Drug Administration late Monday advised international businesses of new flexibilities allowed in the import process in an effort to increase the availability of infant formula across the country.

Under the relaxed rules, the FDA will not object to the importation of certain infant formula products intended for a foreign market or distribution in the U.S. of products manufactured here for export to foreign countries. It also said it may provide room for domestic companies that manufacture infant formula for export to shift more production for sale in the U.S. market.

Tariff barriers
High tariffs and policies to protect the U.S. dairy industry from Canadian competitors have kept a lid on infant formula imports and made it difficult, notwithstanding the FDA’s emergency action, for distributors to substitute formula from overseas sources, according to trade experts.

“We’ve reached the point where producers are no longer able to maintain supply and there aren’t other close-at-hand markets that you can turn to,” said Eric Miller, president of Rideau Potomac Strategy Group, an international trade advisory firm based in Washington, in an interview. “The U.S. has basically said our priority is keeping subsidized imports and products made with subsidized inputs out of the U.S. market. So there’s no excess production that’s available and we keep prices high for consumers in the U.S.”

Infant formula is subject to a 17.5% tariff, and imports from some countries can be hit with additional duties above a certain volume threshold.

Canadian dairy products have mostly been kept out of the U.S. market for decades because the U.S. considers them subsidized. The Canadian dairy sector operates under a supply management system that limits production, sets prices and restricts imports.

Additionally, the Trump administration, under pressure from the U.S. Export Dairy Council, then headed by current Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, included provisions in the United States‐Mexico‐Canada Agreement to restrict exports of formula from Canada.

The USMCA’s agriculture annex limits Canadian exports of infant formula anywhere in the world, not just to the U.S., largely to minimize sales to China after China’s largest formula maker, Feihe International, invested $175 million to build a baby formula plant in Ontario.

Canada is considered a safe, clean source of infant formula by Chinese parents after a 2008 scandal in which tainted, domestically produced baby formula resulted in the deaths of six infants and led to deep distrust of locally made formula.

Trump officials reasoned that if China was purchasing more infant formula from Canada, then it wasn’t buying from U.S. companies.

Under the USMCA rules, Canada is required to apply an export charge of CA$4.25 per kilogram to global exports of infant formula in excess of 13,333 metric tons for the remainder of the dairy year. The quota increased to 40,000 metric tons in year two of the trade agreement and by only 1.2% annually after that.

The charges are designed to offset the amount of subsidies that producers get on the input side, said Miller, a former policy adviser for the Business Council of Canada and the Canadian Embassy in Washington.

The export limits were actually below the production capacity of the Feihe plant, which does business as Canada Royal Milk, according to the Canadian Broadcasting Corp.

The U.S. imported no baby formula from Canada in 2021 because of the confusing USMCA regulations and expensive tariff-quotas, writes Gabriella Beaumont‐Smith, a trade policy analyst at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank in Washington.



“Over time what it means is that the Canadian dairy infrastructure has built up to serve the Canadian market, with some cases set up to serve non-U.S. markets,” Miller said.

U.S. government and IBISWorld figures show Mexico is the largest overseas source of infant formula in the U.S., but formula accounts for a tiny fraction of the total imports from Mexico. Other primary exporters of formula are Ireland, Chile and the Netherlands.

Red tape
Nontariff barriers, such as a 90-day waiting period for new entrants to distribute infant formula, also act to limit imports, experts say.

The FDA has rigorous regimes for marketing certifications and ensuring that specialty products are properly labeled and authorized for sale in the U.S. market. Obtaining certifications for foreign dairy facilities is extremely intensive as well.

“Businesses also have little incentive to go through the onerous regulatory process to sell to American retailers, given the aforementioned tariffs and the relatively short duration of the current crisis,” said Beaumont-Smith.

It is illegal, for example, to import baby formula from the European Union for commercial purposes because it doesn’t comply with FDA labeling requirements, although parents can import it for personal use. Last summer, Able Groupe recalled German-made infant formulas distributed in the U.S. via mail service because the labels didn’t include notification that iron levels were below U.S. standards (1 milligram of iron per 100 calories) and weren’t in English.

Beaumont-Smith said many medical experts believe the differences between American and European formulas are minor and that the regulatory burden for meeting U.S. standards doesn’t noticeably increase safety.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection took credit in April 2021 for seizing 588 cases of infant formula in Philadelphia because they lacked appropriate nutritional labeling. The formula from major brands HiPP and Holle was imported by a freight forwarding company in 17 separate shipments from Germany and the Netherlands, where the companies are based.

The Food, Drug & Cosmetic Act (FDCA) prohibits interstate and import shipments of foods that have been misbranded. The FDA’s import safety alert said the cases of formula didn’t list the ingredients associated with formula for infants under the age of 1. The manufacturers also failed to comply with FDA regulatory requirements to sell their infant formula in the United States, CBP said in a news release.

Miller said formula makers such as Nestle typically use the same recipes in other markets but would have to go through an “excruciating” process to get them certified and labeled for sale in the U.S.

“The great absurdity of this is that less than a hundred miles from the U.S. border you have this plant in Canada that is exporting to China. It’s all about the perversions of trade policy and who’s market is being protected,” said Miller, who is also a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center.

FDA supply efforts
Since February the FDA has taken a series of steps to increase domestic formula supply, including expediting certificates to allow already permitted products from abroad more flexibility moving into the U.S. and streamlining the import entry review process for certain products coming from foreign facilities with favorable inspection records.

The FDA says loosening import rules, in conjunction with the Department of Agriculture and U.K. and European authorities, has enabled a 300% increase in imports of infant formula year-to-date from last year. Much of the increase is likely connected to an ongoing airlift of infant formula from Abbott Labs’ facility in Ireland.

Companies interested in taking advantage of the latest flexibilities should submit information for the FDA to quickly evaluate whether the product can be used safely and whether it provides adequate nutrition. The FDA said it will look for proper labeling, information on nutritional adequacy and safety testing, and information about facility inspection history. The agency intends to prioritize submissions that can demonstrate the safety and nutritional adequacy of their products, and have the largest volume available and/or can get shipments on U.S. store shelves the quickest.

The FDA is already in discussions with some manufacturers and suppliers regarding additional supply.

“Today’s action paves the way for companies who don’t normally distribute their infant formula products in the U.S. to do so efficiently and safely. We are hopeful this call to the global market will be answered and that international businesses will rise to the occasion to assist in bolstering the supply of products that serve as the sole source of nutrition for many infants,” said FDA Commissioner Robert Califf. “With these flexibilities in place, we anticipate that those products that can quickly meet safety and nutrition standards could hit U.S. stores in a matter of weeks.”
Manufacturing constraints
In a commentary for The Hill newspaper, Willy Shih, professor of management practice at the Harvard Business School, blamed the shortage on a lack of spare capacity, low inventory strategies, market concentration in four main producers and elongated supply chains all aimed at meeting consumer expectations for low prices instead of building resilience.

Meanwhile, Abbott on Monday agreed with the FDA to take corrective action necessary to resume production at the facility and maintain quality controls. The Department of Justice filed a complaint alleging that Abbott managers failed to comply with quality and safety practices for producing infant formula, including protecting against the risk of contamination from bacteria. To resolve the complaint, Abbott agreed to enter into a consent decree requiring it retain an independent expert to help bring the Sturgis facility into compliance with the FDCA and safe food manufacturing standards. The consultants must periodically evaluate Abbott’s regulatory compliance.

The proposed safety plan, which is subject to court approval, includes requirements for testing products, as well as ceasing production, and promptly notifying the FDA should contamination be detected. The proposed consent decree also requires Abbott to implement a sanitation plan, environmental monitoring plan and employee training programs.

Once the FDA confirms all conditions have been met, Abbott said it could restart the site within two weeks. The company would begin production of EleCare, Alimentum and metabolic formulas first and then begin production of Similac and other formulas. After the reopening, it will take six to eight weeks before products are available on shelves.

 

[marsh]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

High Gasoline And Diesel Prices Are Here To Stay

WEDNESDAY, MAY 18, 2022 - 06:05 AM

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

• U.S. gasoline and diesel prices are at record highs and show no sign of falling or of denting demand.
• Refining capacity has shrunk dramatically since 2020 due to the covid pandemic, driving fears of a supply crisis.
• It is looking increasingly likely that the only cure for these high prices would be a recession, a cure that could be as bad as the disease.

U.S. gasoline and diesel prices are soaring to record highs nearly every day these days, as crude oil prices hold above $110 a barrel, the Russian invasion of Ukraine upends global crude and refined product trade flows, and refinery capacity globally is now lower than before the pandemic after some refineries—including in the United States—closed permanently after COVID crippled fuel demand in early 2020. There isn't a quick fix for all-time high fuel prices in America— or elsewhere — analysts say. The quickest fix is actually not one American consumers would want — a recession that would lead to job losses.



Despite the Biden Administration's months-long efforts to lower gasoline prices — including massive releases of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and blaming oil companies for price gouging — U.S. refineries cannot catch up with demand.

Not that demand has soared so much. It's the capacity for supply, globally and in the U.S, that is now a few million barrels per day lower than it was before the pandemic.

U.S. Refinery Capacity Lowest Since 2015
Some 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of refinery capacity in America has been shut permanently since the start of the pandemic, as refiners have opted to either close losing facilities or convert some of them into biofuel production sites. Globally, refinery capacity is also stretched thin, especially after Western buyers — including in the U.S. — are no longer importing Russian vacuum gas oil (VGO) and other intermediate products necessary for refining crude into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

The fuel market is extremely tight in Europe, too, considering that many refiners refuse to stock Russian crude and suppliers shun Russian diesel, even if the EU is still struggling to reach a common stance on an embargo on Russian oil imports.

In the U.S., refinery operable capacity was at just over 18 million bpd in 2021, the lowest since 2015, per EIA data.

"As you well know, 1 million barrels of distillation capacity has exited the system since pre-pandemic," Mike Jennings, CEO at refiner HF Sinclair and Holly Energy Partners, said on the Q1 earnings call last week.

Distillate refining margins are sky high due to a shortage of refined product, he added.

"How long that persists? I don't see any signs of it ending soon or well," Jennings said.

Rising demand since economies reopened and people returned to travel, combined with lower refining capacity and very tight distillate markets have drawn down U.S. product inventories to below seasonal averages and at multi-year lows, with record-low inventories reported on the East Coast.

Distillate fuel inventories fell by 900,000 barrels in the week ending May 6 and are about 23% below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said in its latest weekly inventory report. At 104 million barrels, distillate inventories — which include diesel — are at their lowest since 2008. On the East Coast, they are at their lowest ever, as the refinery capacity in the region has halved over the past decade to just 818,000 bpd now.

"We're Ripe for a Potential Supply Crisis"
Globally, around 3 million bpd of refining capacity has been shut down since early 2020, according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie.

"For companies with aging refineries that required significant investment to remain viable, it has been difficult to justify the spending in the face of a weak demand outlook, particularly for gasoline as a result of increased fuel efficiency and the rise of electric vehicles," Ed Crooks, Vice-Chair, Americas, at WoodMac wrote last week.

At the same time, new refining capacity in the Middle East and Asia is only now entering the market after being delayed, in part because of the pandemic and weak refining margins, Crooks notes.

"We're ripe for a potential supply crisis," John Auers, executive vice president at energy consultancy Turner, Mason & Co told Bloomberg last week.

As the summer driving season approaches, U.S. gasoline prices are at an all-time high but haven't dented demand yet.

Moreover, the paper market signals high prices for gasoline throughout the summer as gasoline futures in New York hit on Monday $4.00 a gallon for the first time ever.

"The continuous inventory withdrawal over the past few weeks has pushed US gasoline stocks to levels significantly below the five-year average at this point in the season and reflects acute supply tightness," ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao said on Monday, commenting on the record gasoline future prices.

The situation on the diesel market is even worse. Distillate stocks are 23% below the seasonal average and prices are at record highs, too.

"I wouldn't be surprised to see diesel being rationed on the East Coast this summer," John Catsimatidis, CEO at United Refining, told Bloomberg in an interview last week.

No Short-Term Fix
Prices are not expected to drop significantly from record highs any time soon, analysts and industry professionals say, as they note there isn't any quick fix for the fundamental tightness in the fuel product markets globally.

"I think that we can expect, assuming the economies stay reasonably strong, that commodity prices and, particularly prices of our products, are going to be relatively high," HF Sinclair's CEO Jennings said on the Q1 call last week.

Record-high diesel and gasoline prices are threatening economic growth, adding further upward pressure on U.S. inflation figures. As diesel prices impact every part of the economy, the fight against inflation becomes more complicated for the Fed, as steeper interest rate hikes could lead to the deterioration of economic activity and household spending and, ultimately, recession.

"When we look at the tight market, the natural conclusion is to say that a recession sorts this," Mark Williams, Wood Mackenzie's research director for short-term refining and oil product markets, said, commenting on the diesel market imbalance.

Right now, a recession may be the only short-term "fix" for the very tight fuel markets, but it's surely the least welcome cure for high gasoline and diesel prices.

 

[marsh]

FORMER UN ADVISOR puts W.H.O. on NOTICE against The Global Pandemic Treaty 8:41 min

FORMER UN ADVISOR PUTS W.H.O. ON NOTICE AGAINST THE GLOBAL PANDEMIC TREATY

• WATCH

Former UN Advisor Puts W.H.O. On Notice Against The Global Pandemic Treaty
A former UN advisor has created a sovereign decentralized healthcare system that’s challenging the World Health Organization’s infringement over the privacy rights of its members.

In a letter (https://www.riotimesonline.com/wp-c...-Consents-to-Infringing-on-Health-Freedom.pdf) to WHO Director-General Tedros Ghebreysesus, former UN World Food Programme Senior Advisor Govinda Tidball proclaims members of his independent Ministry of Health group reject pandemic measures undertaken by the 75th Annual World Health Assembly, gathering in Geneva, Switzerland, on May 22nd-28th.

 

[marsh]

more on Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka are having The Day of The Rope 4:10 min

SRI LANKA ARE HAVING THE DAY OF THE ROPE

• WATCH

After the hyperinflation, rampant corruption, malfeasance in public office and a lot of other heinous shit, Sri Lankans have had enough.

Pay attention everyone.

 

[marsh]

Children hospitalized due to formula shortage 2:39 min

CHILDREN HOSPITALIZED DUE TO FORMULA SHORTAGE

• WATCH

Two children in Tennessee were admitted because the specialty formula they needed was out of stock.

 

[marsh]

Here We Go: US Government to Extend Covid-19 Public Health Emergency Past July | The Gateway Pundit | by Jim Hᴏft

The US government has extended again for the nth time the Covid-19 public health emergency past mid-July even though daily new cases of COVID-19 infection have declined since the Omicron surge.

www.thegatewaypundit.com

Here We Go: US Government to Extend Covid-19 Public Health Emergency Past July
By Jim Hoft
Published May 18, 2022 at 3:45pm

The US government has extended again for the nth time the Covid-19 public health emergency past mid-July even though daily new cases of COVID-19 infection have declined since the Omicron surge.

The Department of Health and Human Services has continually extended the public-health emergency since its implementation in January 2020.

The declaration allows the US to grant emergency authorizations of drugs, vaccines, and other medical countermeasures and has enabled millions of Americans to get health coverage through Medicaid, among other benefits, according to Bloomberg.

On April 16, Xavier Becerra, Secretary of Health and Human Services, extended the public health emergency an additional 90 days through mid-July.

Now, HHS is set to extend the public health emergency again for another month.

Bloomberg reported:

The US government will extend the Covid-19 public-health emergency past mid-July, a move to continue pandemic-era policies as the nearly 2-1/2-year outbreak drags on.

On April 16, HHS extended the public-health emergency an additional 90 days through mid-July. The declaration will be extended beyond that period, according to a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named as the details aren’t yet public. That means various measures to relax restrictions in how care is accessed across the health system will continue.

An HHS spokesperson said that the public-health emergency currently remains in effect, and the department will continue to provide a 60-day notice to states before any possible termination or expiration.

National health organizations, including the American Hospital Association, the American Medical Association, and the American Academy of Pediatrics, have lobbied for the designation to continue.

Last week, the groups wrote a letter to HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra urging the Biden administration to maintain the emergency “until it is clear that the global pandemic has receded and the capabilities authorized by the PHE are no longer necessary.”

 

[marsh]

WATCH: Ted Cruz gives a Master Class to reporters on why Biden is to blame for intentionally raising gas prices

Senator Ted Cruz gave a Master Class to the press today explaining why the blame for our record high gas prices falls almost squarely on Biden and his administration. Despite his efforts to blame P…

therightscoop.com

WATCH: Ted Cruz gives a Master Class to reporters on why Biden is to blame for intentionally raising gas prices
MAY. 18, 2022 4:21 PM BY THE RIGHT SCOOP•


Senator Ted Cruz gave a Master Class to the press today explaining why the blame for our record high gas prices falls almost squarely on Biden and his administration.

Despite his efforts to blame Putin, Ted Cruz goes through every step Biden has made since he became president to intentionally raise gas prices.

Watch:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527014822981914624

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1527014822981914624
3:05 min

Add to this how the Biden administration is slow-walking all of the permits needed for companies to actually drill for oil.

It’s despicable and as Ted Cruz has pointed out, intentional. They want to force everyone into spending tons of money on electric vehicles because they hate oil and gas.

Kudos to Cruz for explaining this to the liberal press, even though it will likely go in one ear and out the other.

 

[marsh]

Uh Oh: The WHO Changes Guidelines to Favor Lockdowns

The World Health Organization intends to make lockdowns and other non-pharmaceutical interventions intended to curb viral spread part of official

conservativeplaylist.com

Uh Oh: The WHO Changes Guidelines to Favor Lockdowns

by Will Jones
May 18, 2022

The World Health Organization intends to make lockdowns and other non-pharmaceutical interventions intended to curb viral spread part of official pandemic guidance.

The revelation comes in a report scheduled to go to the WHO’s World Health Assembly later this month. This is not part of new pandemic treaty and does not require the endorsement of member states. The report says the implementation is already underway.

Many have raised the alarm about a new WHO pandemic treaty. However, as I’ve noted previously (and as Michael Senger notes here), there isn’t a new pandemic treaty on the table.

Rather, there are amendments to the existing treaty, the International Health Regulations 2005, plus other recommendations (131 in all) put forward in a report from the Working Group on Strengthening WHO Preparedness and Response to Health Emergencies.

Most of these amendments and recommendations relate to information and resource sharing and preparation for future pandemics; none of them directly interferes with state sovereignty in the sense of allowing the WHO to impose or lift measures. However, that doesn’t mean they’re not dangerous, as they endorse and codify the awful errors of the last two years, beginning with China’s Hubei lockdown on January 23rd 2020.

The recommendations in the report originate from WHO review panels and committees and were sent out in a survey in December 2021 to member states and stakeholders to seek their views.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions appear three times in the recommendations, once under “equity” and once under “finance,” where states are urged to ensure “adequate investment in” and “rapid development, early availability, effective and equitable access to novel vaccines, therapeutics, diagnostics and non-pharmaceutical interventions for health emergencies, including capacity for testing, scaled manufacturing and distribution”.

While rapid development and early availability of non-pharmaceutical interventions sounds worrying in itself, it could be interpreted in a number of ways by states.

Where it really gets alarming, however, is in the “leadership and governance” section. LPPPR 29 states (emphasis added):

Apply non-pharmaceutical public health measures systematically and rigorously in every country at the scale the epidemiological situation requires. All countries to have an explicit evidence-based strategy agreed at the highest level of government to curb COVID-19 transmission.

The requirement that a country’s pandemic strategy must aim to curb viral transmission is a major change from the current guidance. The U.K.’s existing pandemic preparedness strategy, prepared in line with previous WHO recommendations, is completely clear that no attempt should be made to stop viral transmission as it will not be possible and will waste valuable resources:

It will not be possible to halt the spread of a new pandemic influenza virus, and it would be a waste of public health resources and capacity to attempt to do so.

It almost certainly will not be possible to contain or eradicate a new virus in its country of origin or on arrival in the U.K. The expectation must be that the virus will inevitably spread and that any local measures taken to disrupt or reduce the spread are likely to have very limited or partial success at a national level and cannot be relied on as a way to ‘buy time’.

It will not be possible to stop the spread of, or to eradicate, the pandemic influenza virus, either in the country of origin or in the U.K., as it will spread too rapidly and too widely.

But now the WHO says that curbing viral transmission is to be the aim of pandemic response.

This is a disaster.

Worse, the report says this recommendation will be incorporated into the WHO’s “normative work,” meaning it will be part of official WHO guidance to states in responding to a pandemic. Worse still, it says it’s already being implemented – it doesn’t need a treaty or the agreement of member states to do this, it’s already happening.

Expect to see new guidance appearing at the international and national levels over the coming months and years which incorporate this presumption that restrictions should be imposed to curb viral spread. This is despite the last two years only confirming the wisdom of the WHO’s previous guidance that this is not possible and not worth the attempt.

This matter must be raised at the highest levels so that lockdowns and other non-pharmaceutical interventions are kept out of all pandemic planning.

Sign the parliamentary petition against the latest moves by the WHO here – now at over 121,000 signatures.

 

[marsh]

Here are the notes on post #2523 with Dave Walsh on energy. He has important insights to share.

Dave Walsh Breaks Down Diesel Shortage In America

Dave Walsh Breaks Down Diesel Shortage In America

rumble.com

5:06 min
Dave Walsh on U.S. Energy and the Lack of Action from the Biden Admin.
Bannons War Room Published May 14, 2022

(Bannon: On the east coast, why is there no diesel gasoline?

Walsh: In the last 2 years, the US shuttered 5 major diesel refineries. The biggest one was in Philadelphia. There was a fire with repairable damage, but the decision was made pretty quickly not to restart production at that particular refinery. It was called Energy Solutions. It was a big one - 335,000 barrels a day in diesel production. And 4 others I mentioned that had been shuttered since the pandemic demand decline.

You can go back in history, the environmental permitting issues surrounding these facilities has been huge. A lot of environmental pressure to close them in the past. So the owners have decided to use the benefit of the downslide we had in May, June, July of 2020 to shutter the, and to not reopen them.

So now we have a shortage of supply, coupled with the Keystone Excel Pipeline, which would have brought 830,000 barrels a day from the tar sands of Alberta to Houston, TX to be refined. Tar Sands oil is particular good to convert to diesel. so we lost that. We've also seen since 2019 a reduction in country of oil and gas production by about 1.3 million barrels per day owing largely to the federal lands lease abatement held back or cancelled by the government. So our own production of crude oil has been curtailed in the past 2 years with a by product of diesel fuel.

Bannon: it sounds like none of these issues are going to be quickly solved because of the environmental people and Biden's policies. The stat you gave previously on refinery capacity, it used to be 50 and now its down to 10?

Walsh: If you look at the inventory of diesel fuel that is generally prevalent in the US, there has typically been about 50 million available barrels in inventory. As of 2 days ago, we were down to 18 million barrels. As of yesterday, it dropped close to 10 million barrels of available supply ready to be shipped. We are now at an all time low of diesel inventory capacity in the US. That's not the capacity of production, that's the amount of inventory.

Bannon: If you were to called into the Oval Office and were asked to give them 2 short term things that could be done what could they do.

Walsh: Obviously actions that could increase domestic production. The Keystone Pipeline if what we have could be opened and used, we've got 830,000 barrels of product ready to go to be converted to diesel in a matter of weeks. Very easy solution. We also export a lot of diesel product into Latin America - Mexico. We probably should be looking hard at that and curtailing some of the exportation. We really don't want government stepping into those kinds of decisions, but in emergency times where we have supply shortages of essentially important fuel, such as diesel, we've got to look at things like that. )

 

[marsh]

Here are the notes on post #2523 on the other interview Dave Walsh on energy.

Dave Walsh on U.S. Energy and the Lack of Action from the Biden Admin. 7:36 min

Dave Walsh on U.S. Energy and the Lack of Action from the Biden Admin.
Bannons War Room Published May 14, 2022

Bannon: Are we not seeing the collapse of a complex system?

Walsh: Absolutely. Energy is at the core - electricity, fuel, diesel fuel - of a civilized, organized, highly developed society.

Here's on food - a head of lettuce. He has a lot of close associates who are major growers in Florida. Here's what he is being told: Generally speaking, the cost of the "cold chain" - keeping something like that cold- and getting it to the store is about 25% of the cost. Recently, they are seeing the cost of transportation for delivery and the cold chain storage exceeding their cost of production. These costs have doubled in the last 60 days and over the past year more than the cost of producing the item itself.

And that's, by the way, inside of India's issues with wheat, cited by Modi's government, the cost of transportation and logistics is a huge issue now, leading to the appropriate decision he's taken for the people of India. Purpose, goal and objective of a sovereign government is to take care of the people in that nation. That's been in the history of the world.

So now we are explaining life 101 things we never thought we would be explaining - the criticality of diesel fuel. What a government does for its people.

India is not a major exporter of wheat. It is not in the top 20. Russia is #1 with about 1/4 of the wheat exportation of the world. India is not on the list because of its need to feed its 1.2 billion people. Of course, consuming 99% of its production.

Bannon: On diesel capacity - Do you see any way that we can't just have a brutal summer? and how important diesel is. All the backup generators in the country are run on diesel.

Walsh: We explained some yesterday. One wouldn't think you would .have to explain the criticality of diesel fuel. All the public transportation in most cities is by bus and diesel powered. The blackstarred capability for generating utilities and the distributed grid in the country is backed up, in part, by blackstarred units that are diesel powered. More than that, the Fukashima plant - most of the nuclear reactors in the world's -backup for the electricity that manages the fuel coming in and out of the nuclear reaction in the water and reactor containment are driven by diesel generators. Diesel fuel is endemic to the country.

We have a shortage of supply now. Generally we have 50 million barrel supply in the inventory of diesel fuel in the country, backing up the system. Generally, 15-18 days supply. Couple of days ago we got down to 10 days. As of 2 days ago, down to 3 days in the system, backing up daily needs. This is an all time low and we're also now at a low production level.

There are some easy fixes - more importation from Canada, feed stock to make more of it and
incentivizing reopening and moving facilities in the direction of - we need more diesel fuel. It is an essential fuel. The entire inter-modal transportation system - heavy rail, is diesel powered. Locomotives are diesel powered.

Bannon: We just spent $1.9 trillion on an infrastructure bill. How's that working out for you Biden fans? Do you see Biden Admin, given that it is locked up by this crazy Green "let's build a wind mill and supply the nation" - It's not practical. You've seen that in Germany. The Greens have stripped all their energy making capacity, so they're slaves to Russian natural gas. Do you see the Administration making any bold moves in the short term?

Walsh: Rhetoric aside, one always looks to actions. What's happened in the last 2 days - more production restrictions imposed in Alaska and major fields, permits being removed for production in Alaska. In the Gulf of Mexico - same thing. Major permits not being advanced, not being approved and being stopped for oil production in the Gulf of Mexico as of last Thursday. One can only look at actions and it would suggest that the Green side of our government still predominates with the entire energy strategy - we don't have one - is only an environmental strategy.

Energy strategy is at the core of a civilized society. Admiral Rickover helped us with commercializing nuclear power in this country in the 50s and 60s for that reason. The essential nature of energy supply to a nation defending itself and being industrially competitive. We were all about that 50 years ago. Now we're all about the environment. )

 

[marsh]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVLc5sSlBP8
15:26 min

Leftist ESG policies are DESTROYING oil & gas ON PURPOSE


Glenn Beck

JP Morgan now predicts the U.S. average price for gasoline this summer will be $6.00 a gallon. Last May, the average was just over THREE. We are in real, serious trouble Glenn says…especially since it seems our current oil & gas catastrophe is BY DESIGN by far-left politicians pushing ESG into ever sector of our free market (it’s could hit electricity hard this summer, too). Glenn explains why leftists may be doing this ON PURPOSE, and what our nation could look like just 12 months from now: ‘You NEED to prepare.’

^^^^

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAs0iYDncu0
6:24 min

Sen Hawley ENDS Biden's Sec. When She Claims He Had No Effect on Gas Prices

May 19, 2022


BlazeTV

Sen. Hawley just ENDED Biden's Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm when she claimed Biden had no effect on gas prices. WATCH Psaki's replacement fall right into Doocy's trap: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCfIZ...

 

[marsh]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mm_x_Wa96QI
8:20 min

High Gas & Diesel Prices Are Here To Stay, Prepare Now Before SHTF

May 19, 2022

The Economic Ninja

High Gas & Diesel Prices Are Here To Stay, Prepare Now Before SHTF. This fuel cycle will not last forever. https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/high.. (See post #2,630 )

^^^^^

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x05VtyLuLoE
7:19 min

Worst Case For Gas & Diesel Prices As House Passes Fuel Price-Gouging Bill H.R. 7688


The Economic Ninja

Worst Case For Gas & Diesel Prices As House Passes Fuel Price-Gouging Bill H.R. 7688. Price controls always end in disaster because producers simply stop selling or close their doors.

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

"This Should Set Off Alarm Bells Across All Industries": House Passes Fuel Price-Gouging Bill

THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2022 - 01:40 PM
Authored by Natahan Worcester via The Epoch Times,

The House of Representatives passed the Consumer Fuel Price Gouging Prevention Act, by a vote of 217-207 on May 19, taking the country closer to greater government involvement in energy markets as gasoline prices soar to new heights.



The bill, H.R. 7688, would let President Joe Biden declare an “energy emergency.”

Such an emergency would empower the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to target people who sell fuel at a price judged “unconscionably excessive” or that “indicates the seller is exploiting the circumstances related to an energy emergency to increase prices unreasonably.”

That presidential emergency proclamation would last 30 days but could be renewed indefinitely “as the president deems appropriate.”

The bill also prioritizes FTC enforcement actions against firms with $500 million or more in annual wholesale or retail consumer fuel sales.

While 217 Democrats voted for the bill, 203 Republicans and four Democrats voted against it.

During the debate, Democrats and Republicans clashed over the causes of record-high gasoline prices.

While the GOP emphasized new regulations and decisions against domestic energy under the Biden administration, Democrats pointed out that record-breaking energy prices have been accompanied by billions in profit for oil and gas firms.

“Our residents are so fed up with corporate greed,” said Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), a supporter of the bill.

Tlaib spoke in front of a large poster listing the 2021 profits of various large oil companies, including Shell and Chevron.

Meanwhile, Republican John Joyce (R-Pa.) stood beside a poster illustrating the long lines of cars at gas stations during the 1970s, when the United States implemented price controls in an attempt to deal with rising gas prices caused by OPEC’s oil embargo.

The poster was labeled, “Socialist Price Fixing.”

“Instead of creating price controls that would lead to less production and massive gas shortages, we need to rely on the energy that lies beneath the feet of my constituents in Pennsylvania,” Joyce said.

Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.) ran through a laundry list of Biden administration actions he said contributed to the rise in gas prices.

These included the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline and the Securities and Exchange Commission’s climate-related disclosure proposal.

As Armstrong noted, the Biden administration already pushed the FTC to investigate rising gas prices late last year.

Rep. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.) argued that House Republicans were mischaracterizing the scope of the legislation.

“We’re not giving the FTC the authority to set the price,” he said.

Yet the bill itself defines violations in terms of “unconscionably excessive” prices, raising questions about how the benchmark for such a judgement would be set, and by whom.
Pallone also claimed that “the problem is oil companies don’t want to increase production.”

“You cannot ask oil and gas companies, particularly onshore companies, to increase production when the infrastructure doesn’t exist to get that product to market,” Armstrong argued during his own testimony, citing the Duke pipeline and other pipeline projects that have been scuttled in recent years.

Bruce Westerman (R-Ak.) attempted to recommit the bill to the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, addressing concerns raised by that committee’s ranking member, Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wa.).
His motion failed by a vote of 220-201.

The House also passed two amendments to the bill.

The first, introduced by Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.), would mandate an FTC investigation into alleged price gouging, including through cuts to refinery capacity. It passed 217-205.
The second, introduced by Chris Pappas (D-N.H.), creates a new FTC unit to monitor fuel markets. It passed 214-207.

The Sierra Club, an environmental organization aligned with the Democratic Party, praised the bill on social media, tagging their Tweet with the hashtag #blamebigoil.


Tim Stewart, president of the U.S. Oil & Gas Association, argued that the bill’s language is vague, setting a troubling precedent.

“The poorly written bill gives the president discretion to declare that gasoline or diesel fuel is ‘unconscionably excessive’ and to determine if your neighborhood gas station is guilty of exploiting an ‘energy emergency.’

“None of these terms are defined so they can mean whatever the president says, and these price controls can be continued indefinitely,” he told The Epoch Times.

“This should set off alarm bells across all industries and markets because while today might the price of gasoline, but tomorrow’s ‘unconscionably excessive’ pricing might apply to anything from the price of wheat, to health care, to airfare, to housing.”

Prominent Democratic economists, including Harvard professor Larry Summers and former Obama administration economist Jason Furman, have also voiced concerns about the bill, with Furman describing it as “dangerous misguided nonsense” on Twitter.

The Epoch Times has reached out to Sen. Joe Manchin (R-W.V.) and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (R-Ariz.) to see how they intend to vote on any Senate version of the bill.