HEALTH MAIN EBOLA DISCUSSION THREAD - WEEK OF 8/1/14 - 8/15/14

[Kris Gandillon]

Fatality rate appears to be about 60 up to 70% WITH medical care.

Without supportive care, who knows. Many are dying out in villages and homes and no one is testing or counting.

Actually, of the TRACKED cases which tend to be the ones receiving medical care, the overall fatality rate currently stands at 54%.

I update the stats daily (or as often as WHO releases new numbers) on the Ebola Tracking thread that is stickied to the top of the forum.

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?453540-Ebola-Tracking

 

[ainitfunny]

South Africa might as well be on a different Continent. Its a completely different world there.

Absolutely. Most people do not know that "South Africa" IS THE NAME OF A SPECIFIC NATION, NOT merely a "region" interchangeable with the term "Southern Africa" COMPARABLE to the term that reporters are now using,"West Africa" which includes MANY NATIONS to describe the African REGION where the Ebola outbreaks are occurring.

 

[Be Well]

Actually, of the TRACKED cases which tend to be the ones receiving medical care, the overall fatality rate currently stands at 54%.

I update the stats daily (or as often as WHO releases new numbers) on the Ebola Tracking thread that is stickied to the top of the forum.

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?453540-Ebola-Tracking

I'm just paraphrasing Isaacs and MSF doctors. The official fur shure figures are only an indication of the real picture, which is without doubt much worse in every way.

 

[bassaholic]

South Africa might as well be on a different Continent. Its a completely different world there.

As it is here..

 

[Medical Maven]

CONSIDER THIS!:

Right now, anyone who tends to frequently get innocent NOSEBLEEDS BEST FIGURE OUT how to SELF-ISOLATE AT HOME, NOT bring attention to themselves, NOT seek medical help, and stay ISOLATED SHOULD EBOLA HIT IN America!

BECAUSE Nobody will, during an ebola epidemic THEN give you the benefit of a doubt if they see you bleeding from the nose, and you will instantly find yourself forcibly LOCKED UP, IN "isolation" WITH PEOPLE WHO ACTUALLY, PROBABLY DO HAVE EBOLA!!!

LIKEWISE be aware women having a PERIOD who ACCIDENTALLY SHOWING BLOOD on their outer clothing may also be feared to be infected and isolated as a precaution! Likewise persons with bleeding hemorrhoids, or others with un-contagious, explainable reasons for bleeding should avoid getting swept up in the zeal to "contain" any perceived outbreak here, lest they CATCH IT FOM OTHERS IN ISOLATION!

And think about this scenario. There are riots. Someone tries to break into your home. They break in. You shoot them. The police come. Do you willingly allow yourself to be incarcerated while they sort things out? Being in jail cheek to jowl with that crowd during a significant Ebola outbreak will also likely be a death sentence.

Or do you document the shoot-out with photos etc., (if the police are not tipped), and leave "justice" for another day, even at the risk of being seen guilty for having done such a thing, despite the extenuating circumstances.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't. But one way, maybe you get out alive.

 

[summerthyme]

MM... If we suffer an attempted home invasion while Ebola is spreading here, I can guarantee that we're NOT calling any outsiders for "help". S-S-S is going to be the rule of the day. Of course, if it gets to that point (where there are riots, presumably over people dying without care, no one answering calls for ambulances, etc), we will be in total self-isolation, and will consider ANY attempt to break that isolation as attempted murder.

Summerthyme

 

[ainitfunny]

Are you FOOLING YOURSELF with your "preps?"

During a period of threatened Epidemic if you, (AND your family) do not CHANGE YOUR SOCIAL BEHAVIOR BEFORE you actually ARE TOLD that "cases" have broken out near you, your family may well NOT NEED ALL THOSE "PREPS" at all, because you could be setting your whole family up to be virtually "walking dead" (infected, but not YET dead from it yet, DEFEATING the advantage that "preps" would have given you.

If after you become aware Ebola is spreading in your REGION, you "go on living" business and "life as normal" still ROUTINELY touching, hugging, kissing, shaking hands WITH ANYONE except those who live with you in your home or sharing cross-contaminated food or drinks with others, IF YOU ARE NOT WEARING A MASK IN PUBLIC, not avoiding eating out, restaurants, close gatherings like theaters, ball games, or meetings of many people in a small room, public pools, going to barbers, beauty shops, getting massages, not disinfecting grocery cart handles, using sweaty exercise equipment and locker rooms, hospitals, riding in cabs, buses, subways, airplanes, trains, ETC THEN YOU "PREPPED" FOR NOTHING.you are probably just the "still-walking but soon dead" with a disease as contagious and fatal as Ebola at large.

You will NOT BE TOLD BY THE AUTHORITIES UNTIL IT IS TOO LATE, not informed SPECIFICALLY WHERE Ebola cases have occurred near you! You will be LIED TO by the "authorities"UNTIL LIES NO LONGER ARE BELIEVED and the truth lies all over the street and schools, hospitals, and businesses shuts down and travel is forbidden! By then, if you have waited till then to start washing your hands frequently and avoiding people and gathering places, you or someone in your family is probably already infected.

 

[banana.republic.us]

BECAUSE THE BLACK AMERICAN COMMUNITIES, (inner city ghettos )EVEN IF IF NOT INITIALLY, THEN EVENTUALLY WILL BE THE HARDEST HIT, IF NOT COMPLETELY WIPED OUT BY EBOLA, WHEN IT HITS AMERICA......

It is TIME FOR AMERICAN BLACKS to raise their voices to demand that Obama defend America and be more protective of American Citizens,
CLOSING THE BORDERS AGAINST ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS,
SCREENING/isolating all TRAVELERS FROM nations now having uncontrolled spread of Ebola cases!

Blacks visiting relatives in Africa, becoming infected and bring the disease back to Black communities, their families, co-workers, friends, local schools, buses, restaurants, gathering places will be the first and hardest hit, if not completely eradicated.

I know a lot of African people.

They don't deal with the African American community AT ALL.

They are cut from a totally different cloth.

 

[ainitfunny]

I know a lot of African people.

They don't deal with the African American community AT ALL.

They are cut from a totally different cloth.

FIRST GENERATION Africans usually don't have much in common with the Black American culture, attitude and values of that community, but their teen and older sons and daughters soon move in those ghetto circles, ignoring parents opinions like all teens do. AND IT WILL BE THOSE FIRST GENERATION IMMIGRANTS visiting family in Africa who will bring Ebola back to their teens who will spread it to the ghettos probably AFER SPREADING IT TO THE STUDENTS IN THEIR WHITE SUBURBAN high schools, where the more successful, traveling blacks live.

 

[Be Well]

Quote Originally Posted by NamasteMama View Post
South Africa might as well be on a different Continent. Its a completely different world there.

As it is here..

That means it has not yet reached South Africa, just as it has not yet reached the US. It does not mean it won't or it can't. Just hasn't YET.

 

[Medical Maven]

This one article just posted by Pixie at the PFI Forum is bizarre as it gets . If I were drunk, I would laugh. Unfortunately, I am stone cold sober.


Ebola Update: How nurse who treated Patrick Sawyer died

August 14, 2014
Ben Ezeamalu
https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news...patrick-sawyer-died.html#sthash.b0jnHPvi.dpbs

The second nurse who died on Thursday at the Yaba Mainland General Hospital, Lagos, from the Ebola Virus Disease was brought to the hospital by her husband, who was bathed with bleach and let go.

This was revealed to PREMIUM TIMES by a source, who did not want to be named because he was not authorised to speak for the family.

According to the source, the nurse was brought to the Isolation Unit of the hospital after her husband noticed she had started developing symptoms of the viral disease.

The nurse admitted to her husband that she had been in contact with the Liberian after Mr. Sawyer was discovered to have died of the disease, the source said.

“The Liberian, Mr. Sawyer, was at (First Consultant Medical Centre, Obalende) for about four days before he died. And she was one of the nurses who attended to him,” the source said. “When she started exhibiting all those Ebola symptoms some days ago, the husband hired a taxi at about 11 p.m. and brought her here where she had been in admission. The husband and the taxi driver were bathed with JIK (bleach) and the car was also treated before they were let go.”

When PREMIUM TIMES visited the Mainland Hospital on Wednesday, a dark skinned man identified as the deceased’s husband was seen moving restlessly outside the hospital’s Isolation Unit.

On Thursday, he arrived in the company of two women who, when they learnt about the nurse’s passing, struggled to fight back tears.

Hours later, the deceased’s husband, who was on the phone for most of the afternoon, was seen putting on a protective gear in preparation to enter the Isolation Unit.

A nurse working in the Isolation Unit corroborated the story, adding that about eight people were still quarantined in the ward.

Two weeks ago, at his first press conference in Lagos after the Ebola outbreak, the Lagos Commissioner for Health, Jide Idris, said that 44 people at the First Consultant Medical Centre had had contact with Mr. Sawyer.

Of that figure, 38 were health workers while six were laboratory staff.

Health minister confirms

The Minster of Health Onyebuchi Chukwu in a statement, on Thursday evening, confirmed the death of the nurse.

Mr. Chukwu also disclosed that Nigeria now had 10 confirmed cases of Ebola Virus Disease, EVD.

He said out of these, four had died and six were currently receiving treatment.

Mr. Chukwu also stated that the total number of persons under surveillance in Lagos were now 169, adding that they were all secondary contacts as all the primary contacts had completed the 21-day incubation period and delisted to resume their normal lives.

The Minister also noted that there was no Ebola Virus Disease in Enugu.

“All cases are still confined to Lagos State. Also, reports of Ebola Virus Disease in Abia, Imo, Akwa Ibom and Anambra States as well as the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja have all been investigated and none of them was found to be Ebola Virus positive,” he said.

He, however, said that Enugu State now had six persons under surveillance as 15, after complete evaluation, were found not to have had contact with a nurse, a primary contact of Mr. Sawyer, who became symptomatic and tested positive and was one of the 10 confirmed cases.

The nurse, who had been placed under surveillance in Lagos, disobeyed the Incidence Management Committee and travelled to Enugu, the minister said.
He noted that at the time the nurse made the trip, she was yet to show any symptom and did not infect anyone on her way as transmission of the disease was only possible when a carrier of the virus becomes ill.

“However, she has since been brought back to Lagos. Before the return journey, she had become symptomatic and had to be conveyed to Lagos with her spouse in special ambulances. The husband is not symptomatic neither is he positive for Ebola Virus Disease but has been quarantined given the intimate contact with her while in Enugu,” Mr. Chukwu said.

===========

(PIXIE'S) Comment:

So between the time he dropped off his wife, the nurse, back at the isolation center after she had become symptomatic (and likely obviously so) and the time he returned to the hospital for quarantine after her death, the husband was allowed to move about freely. As was the taxi driver who had driven the couple on the 7 hour trip back from Enugu to Lagos. Just a bit of a spray down with bleach and they were good.

Heaven help us.
____

 

[Possible Impact]

All I can say is that you need to keep your mind open to the possibility. And pay attention to the pros who are NOT in the government's pay, who have always been very critical of the agencies. You dismiss and ignore this developing situation at your peril. But if you have decided to do nothing, regardless of what facts arise, then I can understand your stance. There are many in your camp.

Part of the problem is that many people are not steeped in the unforgiving nature of infectious diseases, that once certain capabilities have been shown to be evident for any given virus/bacteria, then one ineluctably comes to almost certain conclusions as to its capabilities and possibilities.

And to reject that calculus out of hand is to let your emotions and lack of rigor override logic and science.

Medical Maven,
Sounds like you are an INTP personality type on Myers-Brigg test.
(Most here on TB2K are INTJ)

Flippper's thread:
Using personality type for better communications.
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ype-for-better-communications.&highlight=intp

(Seems to me, response to these scenarios is strongly shaped by Personality Type!)

 

[banana.republic.us]

FIRST GENERATION Africans usually don't have much in common with the Black American culture, attitude and values of that community, but their teen and older sons and daughters soon move in those ghetto circles, ignoring parents opinions like all teens do. AND IT WILL BE THOSE FIRST GENERATION IMMIGRANTS visiting family in Africa who will bring Ebola back to their teens who will spread it to the ghettos probably AFER SPREADING IT TO THE STUDENTS IN THEIR WHITE SUBURBAN high schools, where the more successful, traveling blacks live.

About as much as white suburban "folks" run in the ghetto, maybe less.

The African Immigrants I know are driven motivated people who work themselves up to the top of the pile.

 

[Possible Impact]

No offense to George Ure, whom I read for years back when I liked being scared silly every day, but if this guy is a doctor, then I'm a duck.

There's enough about this situation to cause nightmares without this kind of reprehensible mixture of truth and fiction.

(sorry for being harsh, no offense meant to you, Hansa44)

Actually, George Ure is on the "Do Not Post" list:

PROSCRIBED SITES LIST
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?435122-PROSCRIBED-SITES-LIST

George Ure at urbansurvival.com

 

[Possible Impact]

Potrblog.com @Potrblog · 1m
Emergency Access Initiative,
Free Access to Books and Journals
for Healthcare Professionals Fighting Ebola Outbreak
http://www.nlm.nih.gov/news/ebola_emergency_access.html …





Potrblog.com @Potrblog · 3s
A #JBPDS #Ebola airborne detection humvee
was reported in #Missoula #Montana
This the 2nd report in the North West USA.
#preppers #terrorism



Nebraska biocontainment unit prepared for the worst

August 06, 2014 8:05 pm • By CHRIS DUNKER / Lincoln Journal Star
http://journalstar.com/news/local/n...cle_b1116f96-4073-578f-aae5-0cb6cb7c73b1.html


DAN LITTLE/Lincoln Journal Star
Dr. Angela Hewlett, associate medical director of the Nebraska Biocontainment Patient
Care Unit, demonstrates the biological protection suit and patient transport system
that would be used for treating patients infected with Ebola.


There are 22 hospital beds capable of treating patients infected by the deadly Ebola
virus in the United States.

Designed to completely isolate a patient and prevent further spread of a disease, they
are located in places like Emory University Hospital in Atlanta, or the National
Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Maryland, or the Rocky Mountain Laboratory in
Montana....

 

[bassaholic]

From the sound of many posts here it seems millions have died here in the US already of ebola.

Pretty scary shit.

So far lots of dis info and fictional rumors.

We should be more worried about the coming flu season.

Talking about it is one thing, acting like its here and about to murder us all is bs.

 

[Futira]

What is an Ebola Airborne Detection Humvee?

 

[Possible Impact]

What is an Ebola Airborne Detection Humvee?

JOINT BIOLOGICAL POINT DETECTION SYSTEM (JBPDS)
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/budget/fy2001/dot-e/other/01jbpds.html
(More at link)

The primary purpose of the Joint Biological Point Detection System
(JBPDS) is to limit the effects of biological agent attacks that have the
potential for catastrophic effects on U.S. forces at the operational level of
war. The JBPDS is intended to provide biological agent point-detection,
identification, and sampling capability for both fixed-site and mobile
operations. The system is intended to detect biological agents in less than
one minute and identify the agents in less than 15 minutes. The Block I
version, scheduled for fielding during FY03, is intended to identify ten
agents. The follow-on Block II version, scheduled for fielding during FY07,
will integrate advances in technologies to decrease size, weight, and power
requirements, as well as to identify 26 agents. Both block versions are
intended to interface with the Joint Warning and Reporting Network
(JWARN).

The capabilities of JBPDS will be used by each of the Services. The Army's
JBPDS platform, shown above, is the S788 lightweight multi-purpose
shelter mounted on a High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle
(HMMWV) - Heavy Variant. The Marine Corps will deploy a stand-alone
man-portable JBPDS configuration for employment by foot-mobile
reconnaissance units. The shelter-mounted unit will also be integrated as a
biological component suite installed on both HMMWV based and Light
Armored Vehicle (LAV) based Joint Services Light NBC Reconnaissance
Systems (JSLNBCRS). The Marine Corps is the lead Service for
development of the JSLNBCRS.

The Navy's JBPDS will be installed on deployable surface ships and at high
priority shore installations worldwide, while the Air Force will deploy the
fixed-site, man-portable, and shelter-mounted JBPDS units for air base
protection.



​

 

[RememberGoliad]

What is an Ebola Airborne Detection Humvee?

If there's airborne humvees we got something far bigger to worry about

 

[Countrymouse]

And has there been any further word on how the doc & the lady in Atlanta are doing?

Not a peep.


Nothing on the news.


They're all covering the riots in Missouri.

 

[naturallysweet]

From the sound of many posts here it seems millions have died here in the US already of ebola.

Pretty scary shit.

So far lots of dis info and fictional rumors.

We should be more worried about the coming flu season.

Talking about it is one thing, acting like its here and about to murder us all is bs.

I've had the flu a dozen times in my life. It's a pain, but there is no vomiting blood, bleeding out the eyes, ears, or anus involved. Perhaps you are comfortable with the idea of your body turning into a pile of mush and it having to be scraped off your hospital bed after your death. But we aren't, and want to have every bit of knowledge that we can to avoid it.

I'm sure the Jews who escaped Germany before Holocaust started were told they were crazy as well. All they did was wake up and realize that evil was coming.

Please wake up, evil is coming. It may or may not be Ebola, but it is coming.

 

[Countrymouse]

Samaritan's Purse is in Charlotte, too. The universities will be receiving their overseas students in the next couple weeks, too. And then, there's the Russian activity out of Cuba and along the coasts...

Thanks to Kris who pointed out that my earlier post had the wrong "Georgia"--

yet I KNEW we have a LARGE contingent of Nigerian and other African populations here, particularly in the Clarkston (Dekalb Community College but now Perimeter College Clarkston campus) area---

here's an article (below) about that, and still looking for more. The article is OLD, but take a look at how MANY countries are represented, and think about what is happening in THOSE countries today w regard to ebola.

My POINT is--with the LARGE contingent of Nigerians and other West African groups living here, either as immigrants, refugees, students, or ex-pats, there cannot HELP but be the extensive back-and-forth TRAVEL between residents of these countries, and their FAMILIES, to and from our area----

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/22/us/22church.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

The World Comes to Georgia, and an Old Church Adapts
Nicole Bengiveno/The New York Times

The Rev. Phil Kitchin leads his multicultural congregation at the Clarkston International Bible Church in Georgia.


By WARREN ST. JOHN
Published: September 22, 2007

Correction Appended

CLARKSTON, Ga., Sept. 21 — When the Rev. Phil Kitchin steps into the pulpit of the Clarkston International Bible Church on Sunday mornings, he stands eye to eye with the changing face of America. In the pews before him, alongside white-haired Southern women in their Sunday best, sit immigrants from the Philippines and Togo, refugees from war-scarred Liberia, Ethiopia and Sudan, even a convert from Afghanistan.
Enlarge This Image
Nicole Bengiveno/The New York Times

A Sunday school gathering at the Clarkston International Bible Church near Atlanta, once all white but now home to parishioners from 15 countries.
Enlarge This Image
Nicole Bengiveno/The New York Times

A congregation of Liberian immigrants holds separate services at the church, as do other groups.
Enlarge This Image
Nicole Bengiveno/The New York Times

Adhieu Malang and her daughter, Diyo Chuti, go to Sudanese services.
Video
More Video »

“Jesus said heaven is a place for people of all nations,” Mr. Kitchin likes to say. “So if you don’t like Clarkston, you won’t like heaven.”

The Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. once noted that 11 a.m. on Sunday was the beginning of the most segregated hour of the week in America, and for the better part of 120 years, that certainly applied to this church. From 1883 until a few years ago, anyone on the pulpit would have gazed out at a congregation that was exclusively white. The church is a member of the Southern Baptist Convention, a group that in 1995 renounced its racist past.

But an influx of immigrants and refugees transformed this town in a little over a decade, and in the process sparked a battle within this church over its identity and its faithfulness to the Bible, one that led it to change not just its name but its mission.

The Clarkston International Bible Church, which sits along an active freight rail line down the road from the former Ku Klux Klan bastion of Stone Mountain, is now home to parishioners from more than 15 countries. The church also houses congregations of Ethiopians, Sudanese, Liberians and French West Africans who worship separately, according to their own traditions. The church’s Sunday potluck lunch features African stews and Asian vegetable dishes alongside hot dogs, sweet tea and homemade cherry pie.

The transformation of what was long known as the Clarkston Baptist Church speaks to a broader change among other American churches. Many evangelical Christians who have long believed in spreading their religion in faraway lands have found that immigrants offer an opportunity for church work within one’s own community. And many immigrants and refugees are drawn by the warm welcome they get from the parishioners, which can stand in stark contrast to the more competitive and alienating nature of workaday America.

Indeed, evangelical churches have begun to stand out as rare centers of ethnic mixing in a country that researchers say has become more culturally fragmented, in part because of immigration.

A recent study by the Harvard political scientist Robert D. Putnam underscored the practical complications of diversity. In interviews with 30,000 Americans, the study found that residents of more diverse communities “tend to withdraw from collective life,” voting less and volunteering less than those in more homogeneous communities.

The study noted a conspicuous exception.

“In many large evangelical congregations,” the researchers wrote, “the participants constituted the largest thoroughly integrated gatherings we have ever witnessed.”

Change Comes to Town

Diversity came to Clarkston like a bolt from the blue. The community, just east of the Atlanta Perimeter and 11 miles from downtown, was settled by white farmers and railroad workers in the late 1800s.

Clarkston remained rural and mostly white until the 1970s, when developers began to build apartment complexes for middle-class workers drawn to Atlanta after the international airport here opened. In the next decade, many of those workers began to move to new suburbs farther from town. Vacancies increased, rents fell and crime rose.

In the 1990s, aid agencies that contract with the federal government to resettle refugees pegged Clarkston as the perfect place for these vulnerable newcomers. The town had cheap housing: those empty apartments. It had public transportation — few refugees could afford cars. And Clarkston was within commuting distance of downtown Atlanta’s booming economy.

From 1996 to 2001, more than 19,000 refugees were resettled in Georgia, many in Clarkston or surrounding DeKalb County.

The change to Clarkston was profound. The schools became crowded with children who spoke little English. Locals learned not to drive down Indian Creek Drive on Friday afternoons because of traffic from Friday prayers at the mosque. A third to a half of Clarkston’s 7,100 residents are now foreign-born, most of them refugees.

Some older residents left town, alienated and concerned over the quality of education at the overburdened schools.

Many of those families had attended the Clarkston Baptist Church, leaving empty pews. By the end of the decade the church had canceled one of its two Sunday services. The congregation had dwindled to fewer than 100 from 600.

Concerned about its survival, the church commissioned a study that found blacks and immigrants would soon outnumber whites in the area. William S. Perrin, 75 and a member of the church since 1948, said that at one meeting on the issue, a deacon stood up to express his anger.

“If you think black folks are going to come in here and take our church away from us,” Mr. Perrin remembers the man saying, “you got another thing coming.”

Reaching Out

William Perrin was no stranger to such attitudes. A retired Army lieutenant colonel who survived a midair collision over Vietnam, he grew up in Clarkston before the civil rights era. Some old ideas about race were embedded in his own psyche.

He recalled that while in the Army he once used a racial epithet in front of a black pilot he admired. When he realized what he had done, Mr. Perrin said, he broke down, hugged the pilot and begged for forgiveness.

“I’m ashamed of myself,” he said he told the man. “That’s just my white upbringing in Georgia.”

The pilot forgave Mr. Perrin, who then vowed never to disrespect another person because of race or ethnicity.

With his church failing, Mr. Perrin and other longtime members looked to the Scriptures for guidance and found what they believed was a mandate from Jesus to diversify their church.

“We realized that what the Lord had in store for that old Clarkston Baptist Church was to transition into a truly international church and to help minister to all these ethnic groups moving into the county,” Mr. Perrin said.

To offset costs during the lean years, the Clarkston Baptist Church had leased space to congregations of Filipinos, Vietnamese and Africans for their own services. Mr. Perrin and other members of the church proposed that they invite these congregations to join them as a single multiethnic church.

While an outspoken advocate for diversity within his church, Mr. Perrin is quick to point out that he is no liberal. He voted twice for President Bush. Mr. Perrin said he advocated for an international church because the Bible told him to.

That view is growing more common among conservative Christians, said Mark DeYmaz, a leading proponent of multicultural churches and the pastor of the Mosaic Church of Central Arkansas, in Little Rock, a congregation of 700 from some 30 countries.

In the Book of John, Mr. DeYmaz points out, Jesus is portrayed after the Last Supper as praying for unity among his followers, a message he said runs counter to the notion of an ethnically homogeneous church.

The idea of combining their old Baptist church with congregations of Filipinos and Africans appalled some older white members of the Clarkston Baptist Church, who feared giving up their ways of worship. Some threatened to leave.

“They struggled,” said Allen Hill, the pastor at the time and now an official with the Georgia Baptist Convention. “It’s something Southern Baptists have to struggle with more than others because of our history.”

That history stretches back to 1845, when the Southern Baptist Convention was formed by a group that seceded from a larger national Baptist organization after that group decreed it would not appoint slaveholders as missionaries.

In 1995, the Southern Baptist Convention apologized for its failure to support civil rights and for its congregations that “intentionally and/or unintentionally” excluded blacks. To this day, the overwhelming majority of its members are white, said Michael O. Emerson, a professor of sociology at Rice University who has studied the group.

In 2004, the Clarkston Baptist Church adopted the changes proposed by elders like Mr. Perrin, and merged with the Filipino and Nigerian congregations.

They renamed their church the Clarkston International Bible Church.

That change was too much for many of the older members, like Brenda and Robert White. They left after more than 20 years as members.

“I really resented that,” Mrs. White said of the name change. “I know it’s the 21st century and we have to change and do things differently. But I don’t think it’s fair that we had to cater to the foreign people rather than them trying to change to our way of doing things.”

“It just wasn’t Baptist church anymore,” she said.

A New Church Thrives

Rosa Paige, a 79-year-old Alabama native and member of the church for 46 years, winced and put her fingers in her ears. The staid Baptist hymns of her old church have been replaced by “praise music,” contemporary Christian songs, played by teenagers on electric guitars, that church leaders thought would appeal to new congregants.

“It’s a little loud for me sometimes,” Mrs. Paige said.

Merging congregations has meant compromise for everyone. The immigrants who join the main congregation have to give up worshiping in their native languages. Older Southern Baptist parishioners have given up traditional hymns and organ music.

Other areas, like the potluck lunch in the gym every Sunday, have required little adjustment. “Everybody likes everybody else’s food,” Mr. Perrin said.

The pastor, Mr. Kitchin, a North Carolina native, joined the church in 2006 and learned quickly to keep his sermons simple because so many in his new congregation were just learning English.

“I’d say, ‘You can take it to the bank,’ and nobody had a clue what I was talking about,” he said in a thick drawl.

Mr. Kitchin described his job as part minister, part cultural translator. Church members seek his advice and help.

Recently, Mr. Kitchin said, a Liberian refugee asked him to sponsor a child’s visa so the man’s family could be reunited. Mr. Kitchin declined.

“If I do it for him, I have to do it for everyone in the church who wants their children to come in,” he said. “To tell this man no rips your heart out.”

There are other problems beyond the church’s front doors. Not everyone in the community has appreciated the church’s efforts to proselytize among Clarkston’s newcomers. Salahadin Wazir, the imam at al-Momineen mosque here, said he frequently heard from Muslim refugees and immigrants who say they attended a community outreach program administered by the church where conversation quickly turned to the teachings of Jesus.

“It’s inappropriate,” Mr. Wazir said. “Playing on the minds of small children or desperate, needy people — that’s not the way to preach.”

Mr. Kitchin said he heard such complaints frequently, but he does not apologize.

“I’m a believer in Jesus Christ, and I am commanded by him to go and tell everybody who he is,” he said. “And because we’re in a free country you have the freedom to choose.”

“How can you choose if you don’t know what’s available?”

Despite those tensions, Mr. Kitchin’s church is now thriving. The congregation has grown to more than 300 from 100 a few years ago, and the 10:45 a.m. service on Sundays, which Mr. Kitchin leads, is well attended.

Ultimately, Mr. Kitchin hopes, the groups who worship separately will join the larger congregation as the Filipino and Nigerian congregations did; many of the youngest members, who prefer church in English, already have.

But those congregations face the same tough choices as did the old white Baptist church. Some have been torn between a desire to assimilate and a fear of giving up their own identities.

That is the case with the Liberian congregation led by the Rev. Peter Nehsahn. His flock had considered joining the larger group but decided against it for now, for fear of losing elements of their worship style, which includes drumming and singing African hymns.

“Our people might get lost in the mix,” Mr. Nehsahn said.

But even worshiping separately within the church gives some of the newcomers a sense of connection to the Clarkston community they would not get if they worshiped alone.

For many of those who have joined the main congregation, the experience has been life changing. Marcelle Bess, a white American and a lifelong member of the church, said two of her daughters were dating young Filipino men they had met through the church. She hopes they will marry, she said.

Mr. Perrin said the impact of the church on his life hit him when he and his wife were traveling through the Midwest. They stopped to worship at whatever Baptist church they could find.

“Every church that we walked into was pure white Caucasian,” he said. “My wife and I really felt uncomfortable, because, we realized, here in Clarkston is what the world is all about.”

Mr. Kitchin thinks that in the not-so-distant future many more American churches will face the sort of questions his church has. He said he was frequently asked for advice.

“I tell people, ‘America is changing,’ ” he said. “ ‘Get over it.’ ”

Correction: September 26, 2007

Because of an editing error, an article on Saturday about a church in Georgia that is adapting to an influx of immigrants referred incorrectly to Interstate 285, the highway that circles Atlanta. It is commonly known as the Perimeter, not as the Beltway.

 

[Countrymouse]

People continue to be contagious weeks after they recover. (actually up to two months)

A FACT that one of the Emory doctors, in a news conference, deliberately DENIED right after the patients were brought here.

Someone asked him if Dr. Brantley would be free to go once he's recovered from the virus, or if he'd be detained longer, and the Doctor replied, "Well, you know, when he's well, he's WELL, so .... yeah, we'd see no reason to detain him..." (or words to that effect)

 

[JohnGaltfla]

Guinea Declares Public Health Emergency Over Ebola


VOA News

Last updated on: August 14, 2014 1:59 PM

Guinea has declared a public health emergency over the Ebola epidemic and is sending health workers to all affected border points, a government official said.

An estimated 377 people have died in Guinea since the world's worst outbreak of Ebola began in March in remote parts of a border region next to Sierra Leone and Liberia.

Guinea said its outbreak is under control with the number of new cases falling, but that the new measures are needed to prevent further infection from the other countries at the center of the epidemic.

“Trucks full of health materials and carrying health personnel are going to all the border points with Liberia and Sierra Leone,” Aboubacar Sidiki DiakitDe, president of Guinea's Ebola commission, said late Wednesday.

As many as 3,000 people are waiting at 17 border points for a green light to enter the country, he said.

Sierra Leone has declared Ebola a national emergency as has Liberia, which is hoping that two of its doctors diagnosed with Ebola can start treatment on Thursday with some of the limited supply of experimental drug ZMapp.

Nigeria confirms 11 cases

Nigeria has confirmed 11 cases of Ebola, after a doctor who treated the Liberian man who brought the disease to Lagos fell ill, the health minister said on Thursday.

The doctor had been involved in the initial treatment of Patrick Sawyer, who collapsed at Lagos airport on July 20, Health Minister Onyebuchi Chukwu told a news conference in the capital, Abuja.

A staff member of the West African regional economic body ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) this week became the third person in Nigeria to die of the disease.

“Eight (others) are still alive, more than half of them are doing very well and actually showing signs of recovery ... under treatment,” Chukwu said.

US Embassy

The United States said on Thursday it has ordered family members at the U.S. Embassy in Freetown, Sierra Leone, to depart because of limitations on regular medical care as a result of the Ebola outbreak.

“The Embassy recommended this step out of an abundance of caution, following the determination by the Department's Medical Office that there is a lack of options for routine health care services at major medical facilities due to the Ebola outbreak,” the State Department said in a statement.

The White House said U.S. President Barack Obama, in separate calls, spoke on Thursday with Liberia President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and Sierra Leone President Ernest Koroma about the Ebola outbreak.

"In his conversations with both leaders, the president underscored the commitment of the United States to work with Liberia, Sierra Leone, and other international partners to contain the outbreak and expressed his condolences for the lives lost," the White House said.

In its latest update, released Wednesday, the World Health Organization said 1,069 people have died of Ebola this year in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone. The region's total number of cases stands at just under 2,000.

In addition, 170 health care workers have been infected with Ebola and at least 81 have died among the overall toll of 1,069 people dead, according to WHO.

WHO has called this Ebola outbreak an international emergency. It has killed between 55 to 60 percent of those who have contracted the disease.

There is no known cure or vaccine for Ebola. On Tuesday, a WHO panel of medical experts said it is ethical to give patients unproven drugs to try to fight the disease.

Summit expands, airline service contracts

The outbreak has prompted the African Union to expand a summit in Burkina Faso next month so leaders can address the issue.

And on Thursday, another airline suspended flights to Africa. Korean Air Lines announced it will temporarily stop flights to and from Kenya's capital, Nairobi, in what it called a measure to contain Ebola.

No Ebola cases have been reported in Kenya, but WHO has classified the East African country as a high-risk area for the disease because of its role as a major transport hub.

Earlier, British Airways and the Middle Eastern airline Emirates suspended service to parts of West Africa in response to the outbreak.

Nurse breaks quarantine

A nurse with Ebola, which she caught from Sawyer, skipped quarantine in Lagos and headed to her home in the southeastern city of Enugu, where she was suspected to have had contact with 20 other people.

However, Chukwu said after initial screening, they realized only six people had been in contact with her, and they put those six under surveillance.

A total of 169 people were under surveillance in Lagos, after eight others were cleared, including all of Sawyer's primary contacts from when he came in.

The government also announced that Dangote Group, owned by Africa's richest man, Aliko Dangote, had donated $150 million to halt the spread of the virus.

 

[JohnGaltfla]

Where any major outbreak would run rampant ....

The Associated Press ‏@AP 1m

Alabama prisons deal with worst outbreak of tuberculosis since 2009, but officials think worst might be over: http://apne.ws/1pQ8yWL

 

[Medical Maven]

The computer modeling is actually forecasting what is happening on the ground. The only hope is that Africa gets better at containment, otherwise it is as I said, "As Nigeria goes, so goes the World". (And aren't we hopeful with what we know about the level of order and competence in Africa and the caliber of leadership in The West).

Posted at the PFI Forum by Pixie, one of the two main moderators.

Virtual Outbreak Offers Hints Of Ebola's Future

by NELL GREENFIELDBOYCE
August 14, 2014 5:56 PM ET
http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/201...rtual-outbreak-offers-hints-of-ebolas-future?

While the Ebola outbreak continues to rage in West Africa, it is also unfolding — in a virtual sense — inside the computers of researchers who study the dynamics of epidemics.

Policymakers look to these simulations to get a sense of how the outbreak might spread. They also can use them to run experiments to see what public health measures should take priority.

"I've spent a lot of time doing computer models of disease transmission, but rarely does it involve something in Africa. Africa is often overlooked," says Bryan Lewis, a computational epidemiologist at Virginia Tech.

So when a defense agency called him a few weeks ago and asked him to model the Ebola outbreak, he was excited by the challenge. PIXIE: {told ya so }

Lewis started plugging data into his computer. He uses the official numbers of how many people have died or gotten infected, even though those are probably underestimates. And he says health officials really don't have a handle yet on other important stuff that's going on — like how many infected people stay at home versus go to a hospital, or how burial practices spread infection.

"Some of those factors are the ones that are hard to measure," he says. "You've got to choose how much of this complexity you care to explicitly represent."

What's more, they can't assume this will play out like past Ebola outbreaks — those hit much smaller populations in more isolated, rural areas.

Despite all this uncertainty, Lewis says his models have been able to predict the course of the epidemic so far.

"At the moment, these models — at least for Sierra Leone and Liberia — we aren't putting in any mitigating factors. We're just letting these things run unthrottled," Lewis says. "And they've just been surging up. And they've been, unfortunately, accurate in the last couple of weeks in terms of the number of cases coming out."

He says if you just kept this simulation going on and on, it shows Ebola spreading across the continent. [B]But this scenario he's constructed doesn't include all the public health measures starting to ramp up now.
[/B]
"We know in the real world there are efforts being directed out there, there are resources being allocated," says Lewis. "Until we understand that better and can incorporate that into the model, I don't think it's very useful to speculate out past a week or two." PIXIE: {and...because it doesn't look good}

Some computer simulations focus on the risk of Ebola spreading to other countries. Alessandro Vespignani, at Northeastern University, creates those models, using information about air travel and other kinds of transportation.

His work suggests that Ebola could find its way to African nations like Ghana, Gambia, and Senegal. "There is a tangible risk of spreading in the region to other countries," says Vespignani, "probably in the ballpark of 20 to 30 percent in the next few weeks."

He notes poor countries might have trouble keeping an imported case from spreading. And the larger this outbreak gets, the harder it will be to contain.

So while his model currently suggests that the risk of Ebola reaching the U. S. or Europe in the next six weeks or so is very small — just a few percent — that could change if the outbreak in Africa continues to grow.

Vespignani says we need "to extinguish the fire," so that Ebola doesn't really become a threat to the rest of the world in the next months.

Given that all this modeling is as much an art as a science, different groups working on the problem have been comparing notes. They've also been fielding calls from government officials and policymakers.

Martin Meltzer, who heads up the unit at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that's been creating computer models of the outbreak, says that people always ask him the same two questions: "How many people are going to die, and when is this going to end?"

He tells them too much is unknown to give any reliable answer.

Mostly, he says, the models just illustrate the need for old, tried-and-true methods for disease control, such as quickly identifying patients and isolating them.

"Modeling won't stop this disease," says Meltzer. "We know how to stop this disease. It's fairly simple and it's a matter of getting the simple activities and practices in action — in place, on the ground."

That's the struggle now, he says. Because while it's easy to change a line of computer code in a simulated epidemic and, say, reduce a transmission rate by 80 percent, it's a lot harder to do that in the real world.
__

MY COMMENT: Hmmm! What are our chances?

 

[Countrymouse]

Epidemics and pandemics have cycles, waves and phases to them. Nigeria is now showing CLASSIC DISEASE EPIDEMIC STATUS. Doomer Doug said a while back that "if" we got a local Nigerian epidemic, it "could" lead to a global pandemic based on global air travel. Nigeria is now clearly showing signs of an internal Ebola epidemic based on local travel patterns by exposed, infected and openly infectious people.

The question as to where these new people, running around Nigeria infecting still others, came from is clear. THE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE INFECTED BY MR. PATRICK SAWYER ON JULY 2OTH WAS MUCH MORE THAN THE FIFTEEN NIGERIAN AUTHORITIES "DEALT WITH." We now have a secondary Ebola infection cycle, based on the people originally exposed and infected, from July 20th to July 25th, by Mr. Sawyer at the Lagos airport and hospital. Those infected people then exposed still more to the virus, who then exposed the third wave. In fact, we may now very well be in the FOURTH EBOLA INFECTION CYCLE.

We KNOW Mr. Sawyer was "patient zero" for Nigeria. We know he infected others on July 20th, 2014. We KNOW the newly exposed and infected spread the Ebola virus still more. WE KNOW the disease is spreading widely in Lagos, Nigeria based on several credible reports of patients being turned away from hospitals. We KNOW at least TWO NURSES were infected with Ebola, infected other people, as well as either flying or driving by bus to the eastern city in the one case. DOOMER DOUG IS TELLING EVERYBODY THAT THIS ONE CASE OF THE INFECTED NURSE GOING TO THE EASTERN CITY, BY AIR OR BY BUS, NOW MEANS THE FOURTH INFECTION WAVE WILL BE BASED ON THE EASTERN NIGERIAN CITY. After that, the deluge to quote the French King.

As I write this on August 14, Year of Our Lord, 2014 several FACTS are now clear.

FACT ONE. Liberia is now a failed state heading towards social anarchy and collapse at all levels of Liberian society. Liberia is now a place where ROTTING, EBOLA INFECTED CORPSES, are scattered around the capital city being fed on by vermin. Rotting corpses are scattered in the rural areas, complete with abandoned villages, hysterical survivors and total chaos. Behold, this is the future for West Africa as Ebola continues to spread.

FACT TWO. Nigeria is entering the early phases of an Ebola epidemic based in Lagos, and now the eastern city. The social anarchy is also in the early phases, but the chaos in the hospitals shows it is perking right along. Nigeria will see a faster collapse in its health care system as the medical people have had almost a month to watch Liberian medical people die off in droves. The Nigerian collapse will be faster, more intense, as well as have global implications.

FACT THREE. The official numbers regarding both deaths and infected people, as well as the famous 1.86 infection spread are, in DOOMER DOUG'S OPINION, LESS THAN TEN PERCENT, REPEAT TEN PERCENT OF THE ACTUAL TOTALS.

FACT FOUR. For a lot of political reasons, related to the Political Correct mindset that has infected the West, the kinds of medical steps needed to prevent an epidemic, much less a global pandemic, have not, and will not be taken to limit Ebola spreading into the West.

FACT FIVE. We don't have to wait till Labor Day in Nigeria. I am calling an Ebola epidemic for Nigeria, based in Lagos, the Eastern city, and now the northern city. The Lagos airport is spewing Ebola infected people at a regular rate since July 20th.

At this point, the social collapse of Liberia is a done deal. Nigeria is now enduring the early phases of an Ebola epidemic, followed by a social collapse with profound implications for the rest of the world.

It is a theory of Doomer Doug regarding history that ONE person can have a profound historical impact. For instance, if the moron officer in charge at Pearl Harbor had bothered to scramble a few P-40E fighters to investigate the radar reports, things would have gone differently. If any of the dozens of government and health authorities in either Liberia or Nigeria had shown the most basic of actions regarding Mr. Patrick Sawyer and what I will call the "Flight of Death" to Nigeria on July 20th, things wouldn't be so bad. They didn't, so we are going to pay in buckets of blood for that failure.

Liberia is gone into the abyss. Nigeria is headed that way. The only issue now is not how bad it will get in Nigeria: the answer to that is Black Death 1348 level. The issue is whether the total failure in West Africa to deal with Ebola, combined with the dismal failure of the West to provide logistical support will guarantee a global pandemic of Ebola. The answer is still unknown, not in the Nigerian epidemic mode, but in the global pandemic mode.

I am seeing every indication of what I said would happen; namely, one person here, and two people there flying out and starting the global pandemic process one country at a time.

We shall see on the global pandemic mode. The regional, West African epidemic mode is well underway. One year from now there will likely be multiple MILLIONS less West Africans than there are living today.

And isn't Atlanta just LUCKY?

Not only were the two ebola patients shipped HERE (with a sewer system that will conduct their bodily wastes RIGHT INTO the Atlanta water /solid waste treatment system and then on down the Chattahoochee to FL and the Gulf--and remember 1 to 10 virus 'cells' is enough to infect a person), BUT....


ATLANTA is 'blessed' to have one of the ONLY THREE Nigerian embassies in the U.S. (the others are in Washington, D. C. and New York City; http://nigeria-consulate-atl.org/), plus, per Wikipedia:

Georgia: Cobb, Dekalb, Fulton, Gwinnett County, Georgia counties; the Atlanta metropolitan area is the 5th largest Nigerian-American community.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigerian_American

So many, in fact, that this website has quite an extensive list of the various organizations / groups for Nigerians living here in Georgia:

ANOG (Alliance of Nigerian Organizations of Georgia) http://www.anogusa.org/

A separate Wikipedia page gave (as latest figures it had) the 2000 census-figures for the largest populations of various African nations living in the US:

Metros with largest African-born population (2000 Census) Metropolitan Area African Population % of Total Metro Population

Washington, DC, MD-VA-WV 80,281 1.6
New York, NY 73, 851 0.8
Atlanta, GA 34,302 0.8
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI 27,592 0.9
Greater Los Angeles Area 25,829 0.3
Detroit, MI 24,231 0.6
Houston, TX 22,683 0.5
Chicago, IL 19,438 0.7
Dallas, TX 19,134 0.5
Boston, MA-NH 17,344 0.7

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Africans_in_the_United_States

 

[Countrymouse]

Here is letter sent to George Ure by a doctor talking about Ebola. VERY SCARY!


http://urbansurvival.com/coping-a-doctors-ebola-note/

Coping: A Doctor’s Ebola Note


Posted on August 14, 2014 by George Ure


As we head out this morning on our latest/next adventure, I wanted to pass along a note from a doctor/read of ours.

He sent in a marvelous note after reading one of our missives earlier this month. I would have posted it sooner, but it got stuck under a pile of other emails – my bad.


George, thank you for your column today, especially the prepping notes, it was worth the annual fee just for todays information. (for my friends, see http://urbansurvival.com/coping-prepping-for-a-ebola/ )

However, there is some information on Ebola that you need to know and to disseminate. If people don’t read anything else that I have written here, please understand that IF YOU TREAT A PATIENT WITH EBOLA OR GET NEAR THEM YOU WILL PROBABLY DIE. You have no idea what it is like to take care of someone with this disease.

Basically it is impossible without knowing a tremendous amount about disease transmission. Even the doctors with all their disease transmission gear don’t have a clue.

And toilet paper needs for someone with this disease? You must be kidding George. How about towels and towels and new mattresses? How about lime and burning all used articles of clothing? Is anyone prepared for that?

These people infected are literally DISSOLVING from the inside. Just to show you what you don’t understand, put some poop (your own or any animal, mix it with some blood (I don’t know where you’re going to get that lol…. local butcher? I don’t know), put them in a bucket outside in temperatures over 90 degrees (the body is around 100 degrees), let it sit for about 5 hours, and go smell of it for at least a few minutes. The odor is so overpowering you have no idea.

Now imagine you have to be around that, and that the smell brings with it an infectious agent that will kill you in the same way. Ebola is almost certain death. The only people who have survived have access to high intensity care, usually hospital intensive care type care, and even then their odds are low of survival. Now imagine hundreds if not thousands or tens of thousands of people infected. Imagine your child infected, are you not going to try and take care of them?

This is the problem, most parents and loved ones wont be able to stay away, and they will become infected and spread it on to others. I have tried for years to break diagnosis of this disease down into a nutshell, how to recognize, and be concerned that someone might have Ebola, and I came up with the following, if you see someone bleeding from the eyes and the nose, turn around and go the other way, 20 feet is minimum distance, otherwise you are at very high risk of becoming infected. This is actual BLEEDING (not just red eyes). Don’t touch anything they have touched, don’t stay in the area. Whole villages have disappeared for not understanding these simple facts.

That’s it, for more at length, my qualifications are 30+ years of “practicing” medicine, I have participated in research at major research institutions (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and Tufts New England Medical Center in Boston Mass.), have practiced in emergency rooms and urgent care centers, and I have a wide interest in socio-economics, politics, epidemiology, and the world in general. I have logged over 250,000 patient encounters in my career.

Ebola breaks down into 5 or 6 strains. The most worrisome problem, detailed in the non-fiction book, “The Hot Zone: The Terrifying True Story of the Origins of the Ebola Virus” which details the “Reston” strain, which became air-borne in a research facility, infected humans, but apparently was only lethal to the monkeys, which died or were put down.

Stephen King said, at the time, that it was the scariest book he had ever read. In other words, imagine a flu that is circulating that is 90% fatal.

Currently, and apparently (there are multiple reports going about the current Ebola might be respiratory spread, although I do not see any hard evidence that that is the case), this Ebola strain is not spread by respiratory secretions. Remember though, that a person with Ebola, is shedding billions (Billions with a B) of viral particles all the time in “body” fluids. Vomit, diarrhea, sweat(?), saliva, nasal secretions (?) etc. It possibly only takes one viral particle to infect you.

Current fatality rates appear to be in the 60-90% range. There is some concerns though about the “mixing” of the current Ebola strains, and just like the flu, possibly a renegade new strain appearing, that may be spread like the flu, easily, through respiratory secretions.

The Reston strain (the Ebola strain that is spread like the flu through respiratory secretions…… it was found in at least one of the human researchers, but it caused no disease in the humans, but killed the monkeys) has been found in pigs (a known “incubator” for new flu infections that are then transmitted to humans) in the Phillipines, http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_02_03/en/ , and more on that here, http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvrd/spb/outbreaks/qaEbolaRestonPhilippines.htm .

For a general big grouping on viruses look here (Ebola is under Filoviridae, with Marburg Virus), http://virology.net/big_virology/bvfamilygroup.html .

It is clear that the Ebola virus is evolving, see http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07291401/Ebola_Zaire_Guinea_SL.html .

I’m neither a virologist nor an epidemiologist, but it is clear from above that this virus does have the ability to spread, and rather rapidly at that.

Everyone should take the precautions you mentioned in your newsletter, learn to recognize the very simple signs of possible Ebola I mentioned above (bleeding eyes, bleeding nose), and take care to stay away from any such individual.

And to be clear, when I say bleeding eyes, I mean some droplets of blood coming from the eyes, instead of clear tears. This is by NO MEANS an absolute positive sign of Ebola, or any other disease, or the only symptoms that might occur in someone with Ebola (early signs of Ebola can include fever and body aches, which can occur in about a thousand other diseases as well including common cold), but is meant to be a sign that might enable someone to live through this epidemic.

Another tidbit, Ebola virus has been found in semen 61 days after infection and transmission can occur in this manner, http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/,

more information here, http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/faq-ebola/en/

and other Ebola reading if one wants it.. http://govtslaves.info/ebola-virus-released-atlanta-sewage-treatment-plant/

…. I do not vouch for any of the above links. Read it and gather information as you will. One thing is clear, this disease is evolving as many viral diseases do, have some common sense, and prepare as you are able, but have no fear, which disables us all.

I apologize for the length. Keep up the good work.

Dr R.

As we take off on our trip, we appreciate the risks, and more so, the idea that over time, if Ebola spread continues to ramp up, we may not be doing much travel in the future.

He's right---if your child is sick, then--equipped or not---you will TRY to take care of them.

And if "I" got sick & my family didn't---Maybe I'd have my husband put up a tent way back behind the barn, dig me a latrine, and leave water or whatever outside the tent---that or go live in the abandoned house next to ours till it's over, one way or the other---if I make it, I do, and if I don't---well then I don't.

I wish this was all just a bad dream....

 

[Possible Impact]

If there's airborne humvees we got something far bigger to worry about

Naw, happens all the time...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RXoG-GeGek

WHO pushes back against Ebola-related flight bans

Lisa Schnirring | Staff Writer | CIDRAP News
Aug 14, 2014
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2014/08/who-pushes-back-against-ebola-related-flight-bans

Chalabala / iStock

With some airlines suspending flights to West Africa's Ebola outbreak
region, the World Health Organization (WHO) today restated its position
that the risk of disease transmission during air travel remains low, as a
few doses of an investigational drug reached Africa.

Korean Air Lines (KAL) announced today that it would suspend flights to
Nairobi, Kenya, starting Aug 20 to prevent the spread of Ebola virus
disease (EVD), according to a report today from Reuters. KAL operates
three return flights from Nairobi each week. Kenya has not reported any
Ebola cases and does not border the affected area, though the WHO has
urged it to take extra precautions, given the volume of travel between it
and the outbreak countries.

Earlier this month, British Airways said it was suspending service to Liberia
and Sierra Leone because of the EVD outbreak. Emirates Airlines, based in
Dubai, has also suspended flights to Guinea.

So far, only one travel-related illness has been detected, in an airline
passenger from Liberia who was sick upon his arrival in Nigeria, an event
that sparked a transmission chain in the capital, Lagos. However, some
airlines are concerned about the safety of passengers and staff who might
need to seek care in a medical facility in outbreak countries.

WHO repeats advice against flight suspensions

Isabelle Nuttall, MD, director of the WHO Global Capacity Alert and
Response, said in a WHO statement today that unlike flu and tuberculosis,
Ebola doesn't spread through the air. "It can only be transmitted by direct
contact with the body fluids of a person who is sick with the disease."

The WHO added that on the small chance that someone on a plane is sick
with Ebola, the likelihood of other passengers and crew having contact
with their body fluids is even smaller. Typically, when a person is sick with
Ebola, they are so unwell that they can't travel. Health experts also say
people who are infected with Ebola can't shed the virus until they
have symptoms.

Last week the WHO's emergency committee on Ebola said the outbreak
developments in West Africa qualify as a public health emergency of
international concern (PHEIC), and it recommended a set of measures to
curb the spread of the disease. The panel urged no bans on international
travel or trade and that countries make sure they have the capacity to
identify and care for travelers from Ebola-affected areas who arrive at
travel hubs or destinations with unexplained fevers or other symptoms.

On its Twitter account today, the WHO said international airlines in
affected countries are putting systems in place to screen passengers for
possible infections. Global health officials have said exit screening in
outbreak countries is likely to be more effective for flagging illnesses than
entry screening in destination countries, because nonstop flights from
African countries aren't the most common route, and it's more difficult to
track passengers when they take multi-leg flights.

The WHO also tweeted that it is disappointed when airlines stop flying to
West Africa: "Hard to save lives if we and other health workers cannot get
in." (??)
​

^^^ STUPID is, as STUPID Does... ​

 

[Medical Maven]

Here is the understatement of the Year: The WHO and the CDC do not have our best interests at heart.

Look at this patently false claptrap coming out of WHO in regards to airline travel.

Posted at the PFI Forum by Pixie, (with some GREAT comments).
PIXIE'S COMMENT:

That's right. Sing it, Margaret!

JUST to reiterate……

WHO: Ebola Unlikely to Spread on Airplanes

Lisa Schlein
August 14, 2014 3:22 PM
http://www.voanews.com/content/who-says-ebola-unlikely-to-spread-on-airplanes/2413762.html?

GENEVA— The World Health Organization says it does not recommend a ban on air travel to and from Ebola affected countries in West Africa. The U.N. health agency says the risk of spread of the deadly disease in an airplane is extremely low.

Korean Air announced Thursday it would suspend air travel to Kenya as of August 20 as a measure to prevent the spread of the Ebola virus. The first airline to take similar action was the Dubai carrier Emirates, which suspended air travel to Guinea on August 2.

The World Health Organization does not endorse a ban on travel or trade. It says air travel even from Ebola affected countries poses an extremely low risk of transmission of the disease.

WHO Director of Alert and Response, Isabelle Nuttal, said Ebola was not airborne like Influenza or tuberculosis. She said the Ebola infection was passed on only through direct contact with a sick person's body fluid, such as blood, vomit, sweat or diarrhea. PIXIE:{and none of those sick people with body fluids are on PLANES! YAY!}

"On the small chance that someone is sick on a plane, the likelihood of other passengers and crew contact with their body fluids is even smaller," she said. "A person infected with Ebola…this person can transmit the disease to another one only if he or she has the symptom of a disease - fever, vomiting, diarrhea. A person that has no sign of the disease is not contagious, is not transmitting the disease to others."

Nuttal said usually people, who are sick with Ebola, felt so unwell they could not travel. Therefore, she said WHO was advising against travel bans to and from affected countries. PIXIE: {that bet has already been made, and lost, Nuttal, and people have DIED because of it - this isn't Vegas}

West Africa is in the grips of the worst Ebola epidemic on record. More than 1,800 people are infected with the disease and more than 1,000 have died, most in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. Nigeria reports nine cases and two deaths. One person who died flew to Lagos from Monrovia, Liberia. {and the others were infected by him }

But, that person was allowed on the plane before WHO declared Ebola an International Public Health Emergency. Nuttal said WHO recommended that airlines screen passengers going to or coming from Ebola-affected countries before allowing them to board the plane.

"They need to be able and prepared to detect, investigate, as they would do, generally speaking all year long any disease that may occur. This is the purpose of international health regulations - ensure that all countries do have the capacity to detect any event, that is something serious, severe…and able to immediately provide adequate treatment for that person," she said.

If someone was confirmed to have Ebola, she said that person would have to be isolated.

The World Health Organization says the perceived risk of catching Ebola is quite different from the real risk, which is very low. It says countries should carefully balance these risks before considering a travel ban. It says such bans have a bad economic impact on the travel and trade of targeted countries {and perhaps for a certain over-extended Middle Kingdom….} and are unwarranted. {SING IT!!!}

==============

(PIXIE'S) Comment:

It is obvious that no small about of pressure is being brought to bear on Margaret. She's got a mission to fulfill, though. She'll stand firm. (Cue the Margaret theme song…)

Countries, airlines, travelers, will have to think for themselves.

Btw, do the airlines carry enough insurance for all this? Do the reinsurers have enough financial stability to get through this? Because Nuttal is pretty clear about the fact that it is their responsibility to see that sick people don't fly, that well people don't become infected, not WHO's.

WHO just doles out the free advice.
_________________

MY COMMENT: YOU ARE ON YOUR OWN, SUCKERS!!!

 

[Housecarl]

Well, they're starting to acknowledge what we've been guessing.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/15/us-health-ebola-idUSKBN0GD1US20140815

Evidence suggests Ebola toll vastly underestimated: WHO

By Saliou Samb
CONAKRY Thu Aug 14, 2014 8:04pm EDT

(Reuters) - Staff with the World Health Organisation battling an Ebola outbreak in West Africa see evidence the numbers of reported cases and deaths vastly underestimates the scale of the outbreak, the U.N. agency said on its website on Thursday.

The death toll from the world's worst outbreak of Ebola stood on Wednesday at 1,069 from 1,975 confirmed, probable and suspected cases, the agency said. The majority were in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, while four people have died in Nigeria.

The agency's apparent acknowledgement the situation is worse than previously thought could spur governments and aid organisations to take stronger measures against the virus.

"Staff at the outbreak sites see evidence that the numbers of reported cases and deaths vastly underestimate the magnitude of the outbreak," the organisation said on its website.

"WHO is coordinating a massive scaling up of the international response, marshalling support from individual countries, disease control agencies, agencies within the United Nations system, and others."

International agencies are looking into emergency food drops and truck convoys to reach hungry people in Liberia and Sierra Leone cordoned off from the outside world to halt the spread of the virus, a top World Bank official said.

In the latest sign of action by West African governments, Guinea has declared a public health emergency and is sending health workers to all affected border points, an official said.

An estimated 377 people have died in Guinea since the outbreak began in March in remote parts of a border region near Sierra Leone and Liberia.

Guinea says its outbreak is under control with the numbers of new cases falling, but the measures are needed to prevent new infections from neighbouring countries.

"Trucks full of health materials and carrying health personnel are going to all the border points with Liberia and Sierra Leone," Aboubacar Sidiki Diakité, president of Guinea's Ebola commission, said late on Wednesday.

As many as 3,000 people are waiting at 17 border points for a green light to enter the country, he said.

"Any who are sick will be immediately isolated. People will be followed up on. We can't take the risk of letting everyone through without checks."

Sierra Leone has declared Ebola a national emergency as has Liberia, which is hoping that two of its doctors diagnosed with Ebola can start treatment with some of the limited supply of experimental drug ZMapp.

Canada's Tekmira Pharmaceuticals Corp is also exploring making more of its experimental Ebola treatment, Chief Executive Officer Mark Murray said.

Nigeria also has declared a national emergency, although it has so far escaped the levels of infection seen in the three other countries.

JUST ONE VEHICLE

Health experts say government responses to the disease need to be calibrated to prevent its spread, while avoiding measures that could induce panic or damage economies unnecessarily.

That task is harder because health services have been stretched to the breaking point and mistrust of health workers among some rural communities is high. In addition, 170 healthcare workers have been infected and 81 have died.

A Liberian government document seen by Reuters shows the strain on its health ministry as it confronts the emergency.

An Ebola call centre in Monrovia is struggling to keep up with the volume and needs more staff, telephone lines and a deputy supervisor, the Ministry of Health document said.

"The case investigation team only has one vehicle so they can't get out and then there's the issue of no space at the ETU (Ebola Treatment Unit) to bring patients," it said.

Ebola is one of the world's most deadly diseases and kills the majority of those infected. Its symptoms include internal and external bleeding, diarrhoea and vomiting.

The U.S. State Department ordered family members at its embassy in Freetown to depart Sierra Leone because of limitations on regular medical care as a result of the outbreak.

U.S. President Barack Obama has discussed the outbreak with the presidents of Liberia and Sierra Leone, the White House said.

ECONOMIC IMPACT

Ebola also holds economic ramifications for some West African states as disruption to commerce, transport and borders lasts at least another month, said Matt Robinson, a vice president at Moody's ratings agency.

Among the signs of the regional economic impact, Ivory Coast will not allow any ships from Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia to enter its port at Abidjan, according to a port statement.

Fewer passengers are arriving at Ivory Coast's main airport from Freetown, Conakry and Monrovia because of the virus leading to a shortfall of about 4,000 passengers a month, Abdoulaye Coulibaly, chairman of Air Cote d'Ivoire, told Reuters.

Ivory Coast and its eastern neighbour, Ghana, have recorded no cases of Ebola. Ghana's government said it would step up its funding for preventative health and impose a moratorium on international conferences for three months as a precaution.

Beyond the immediate impact, Africa faces a problem of perception over Ebola, even though many countries are remote geographically, economically and culturally from those suffering the outbreak.

In one example, Korean Air Lines Co Ltd said it will suspend flights to and from Nairobi, Kenya, from Aug. 20 to prevent the spread of the virus.

Kenya Airways Inc said it will continue its flights to Monrovia and Freetown. Kenyan Transport Minister Michael Kamau told a news conference the Korean Air decision may have been based on a WHO statement that Kenya should be classed as high risk of Ebola because of those direct flights.

"The statement by WHO yesterday was regrettable. It was retracted," he said.

There was no immediate comment from WHO.


(Additional reporting by Rod Nickel in Winnipeg, Anuradha Raghu in Kuala Lumpur, Emma Farge in Dakar, Se Young Lee in Seoul, Loucoumane Coulibaly in Abidjan, Mark Felsenthal, Stella Dawson and Arshad Mohammed in Washington, Pascal Fletcher in Johannesburg, Duncan Miriri in Nairobi, Camillus Eboh in Abuja and Clair MacDougall in Monrovia; Writing by Matthew Mpoke Bigg; Editing by Andre Grenon)

 

[Housecarl]

Just a thought.....How much correlation should we make from TB rates in Lagos to possible ebola transmission rates?

 

[bw]

Medical Maven,
Sounds like you are an INTP personality type on Myers-Brigg test.
(Most here on TB2K are INTJ)

Flippper's thread:
Using personality type for better communications.
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ype-for-better-communications.&highlight=intp

(Seems to me, response to these scenarios is strongly shaped by Personality Type!)

The MB codes are indicative only if you're well into each denoted territory. If you're on the cusp for all of them, as I am, the codes mean nothing.

 

[bw]

He's right---if your child is sick, then--equipped or not---you will TRY to take care of them.

If my wife were sick, a 50-50 chance of my surviving if I cared for her would seem like a pretty good bet.

ETA: I already know what the other side of that wager feels like.

 

[bw]

do the airlines carry enough insurance for all this? Do the reinsurers have enough financial stability to get through this?

Not an issue. Insurers thrive on confusion. If the chain of causation is vague or impeachable, there is no risk. Collect the premiums and pay no claims. Insurers are perfectly happy with Ebola.

 

[Medical Maven]

One more trip to Bizarro Land before I mercifully leave this situation and go to sleep. Posted by Pixie at the PFI Forum. Her comments follow the article.


Ebola latest: Another nurse dies, doctor in bad state

on August 15, 2014
http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/08/ebola-latest-another-nurse-dies-doctor-bad-state/?

[snip]

Fleeing Nurse attended wedding

Enugu state government said yesterday that nobody is quarantined in the state over the deadly Ebola virus. The State Commissioner of Health, Dr George Eze who made this known while speaking with journalists confirmed that about 20 persons were under surveillance following contact they made with the nurse who attended to the late Patrick Sawyer.

Eze stated that the state government has designated four centres including the Colliery Hospital, the District Hospital in Ikem, General Hospital in Nsukka and Oji River General hospital as isolation centres for victims of the disease.
The government’s clarification came as the state branch of the Nigeria Medical Association (NMA), expressed displeasure over the poor preparedness and the way in which the state government has responded to the Ebola virus issue.

The association stated that till date, medical workers in the state were still confused on where to send patients with the ailment, stressing that government has paid less attention to procuring protective devices for volunteers and health workers that could enable them attend to the cases.
Eze stated that the nurse that had contact with Sawyer defied medical advice to visit the husband in Enugu, explaining that the government had acted swiftly on receiving the information and ensured that she and the husband were taken back to Lagos.

He stated that the 20 persons placed under surveillance were due to the contact they had with the lady, explaining that they would only be isolated when they begin to manifest symptoms of the virus.

He said: “You do not quarantine somebody who is moving about because it is only when you develop symptoms that you will be able to transmit the virus and that is when you have excess viral load. It was when she came down to Enugu from what we got from her and the husband that she now started having symptoms. It was then that we were informed, we moved in swiftly and provide the wherewithal with support from expatriates that came down from Lagos, we were able to isolate her and decontaminate the house in line with WHO standard and took her back to Lagos.

“Naturally you have to try to track down the contacts anywhere. It is those contacts that have been put under surveillance. They are in their homes and they are placed under surveillance by Centre for Disease Control in Lagos”.

He stated that the panic being expressed over the development was unnecessary, stressing that the disease can only be transmitted by those who have manifested the symptoms which will unlikely be walking about the streets.

On the provision of protective gear and other materials for personnel, he said the state like others have requested for the facilities from the federal government and would ensure that the materials were not fake.

On the information that the lady in question had attended a wedding in Enugu, he said: “If somebody is well enough to attend and enjoy himself in a wedding, it is not going to transmit the virus. It is only when the person has become ill and developed symptoms”.

On why it has taken so long for the Ministry to brief the people of the state on the situation of things regarding the disease, he said that he wanted to ensure that the public were given the right information.

He said the centres earmarked have been provided with facilities such as bed among others, adding that Centre for Disease Control would soon start training volunteers.

[snip]

Concerns over quarantined victims

Meanwhile, fears heightened yesterday over the health of 198 Nigerians in quarantine, following reports that they are critically ill.

[snip]

Okuboyejo commended the chief consultant and other health workers at the First Consultants Hospital, Obalende, for promptly reporting the case to the appropriate health authorities after the late Patrick Sawyer, failed to respond to treatment. However, he pointed out that a lot more needed to be done to address the situation so that it does not get out of control in the country.

”We have been following closely and know some of the individuals that are being quarantined and it is beyond what we can deal with right now.
“This disease is new to us in the country and we have never been involved in containing this kind of outbreak. There is need for the international community to come and assist Nigeria in helping to halt the likely spread of the disease. As we speak, those quarantined are critically ill.

”I know that the Federal Government is trying its best but there is a lot more we can do to address this situation. Nigeria is too big to be ignored. This disease is new to us in Nigeria and there are experts globally that have experience in treating Ebola globally. We need to tap into their expertise in-country. It is a learning curve for everyone. It is beyond our capacity to handle. If this gets out of control, the consequences, you know,” Okuboyejo disclosed.

Relatives of infected doctor send SOS to US, others

Okuboyejo, who led a group of relatives and concerned friends of the quarantined Senior Consultant Physician and Endocrinologist, Dr. Ameyo Stella Adadevoh, of the First Consultants Medical Centre, at a media briefing in Lagos yesterday, sent an SOS to the United States and international community.

“When you turn on your television now the first news item you hear about is Ebola. A few victims have passed on and the question is what is the state of things in our nation right now. We have been following it very closely because a couple of us happen to know a number of people who have been quarantined and it is obvious to all of us that are concerned that are sitting down here that it is beyond what we can deal with. We would not want to paint what is black white but it is beyond what we can deal with right now and therefore we feel that there is a need for us to make this urgent cry for help for the international community to come to our aid and our assistance.

“I think that it is important that we reflect back and try and see how things happened. I am a medical doctor and I am surprised that they made the diagnosis in the first instance because this is a man that could have gone somewhere else and could have been treated for malaria and he could have died and spread the thing like wild fire. However, the chief consultant that attended to these patients who is also being quarantined right now felt it was very necessary for them to send the blood sample for screening after which it was confirmed and she insisted he must not leave the Hospital.

“So I think we must get the facts right and really come out. We are particularly concerned that if someone could be so patriotic as to save millions of Nigerians from the hardship of this pestilence, the least we can do is to make an appeal to the international community for assistance.

“Two Americans were flown to Atlanta for help. The chap who brought this thing to Nigeria was an American. Our question is that what is the international community doing for us? What are they doing to help the situation because as we speak this is beyond what we can cope with. For example the patients that are there under quarantine, do they even have water? Do we have the facilities to cope with this? It is a big question mark.

“We know that the government is trying but certainly there is a lot more we can do to improve the situation. This why we are making this passionate cry and appeal to the international community to come to our aid so that this doesn’t get out of control. Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and God forbid if this runs out of control. The consequences you all know. So we have to call you to make this passionate appeal to you.”

[snip]

Maku who commended the efforts of the media since the outbreak of the Ebola Virus Disease, EVD, said the media had been very supportive and cooperative except for one or two local media and two international agencies that had been reporting the Nigeria case as if Ebola originated from the country while he said the foreign media reported the country’s Ebola case as if global total figure of the Ebola was Nigeria’s.

“We will take action against any media that wants to run down the country for any reason. We will not allow any international media to use the Ebola to damage the corporate image of this country.”

============

(PIXIE'S) Comment:

Yes, you read that right. Nurse Justina attended a wedding in Enugu.

According to the definition given above by the Enugu State Commissioner of Health, Dr George Eze, members of the 20-person group under surveillance "would only be isolated when they begin to manifest symptoms of the virus."

At the present moment, fifteen individuals have been cleared and six individuals have had their status moved from "surveillance" to "quarantine" so there is a fair possibility that six of Justina's contacts who were formerly under surveillance are now symptomatic. It's hard to tell, though. The authorities are swimming in denial.
________________


MY COMMENT: Things seem to be a little fluid with that Enugu incident, bodily and otherwise.

 

[Kris Gandillon]

Read this and weep:

(wouldn't let me copy /paste; here is a screen-shot of http://www.edu-georgia.com/contents/for-nigerian-students )

Just so everyone is clear. This "Georgia" web page posted by CM above is regarding the country of Georgia (near Russia) NOT the US state of Georgia.

Does not lessen the POTENTIAL PROBLEM of 7,000 anticipated Nigerian students arriving there but at least they are NOT arriving HERE!

 

[Masterchief117]

Just so everyone is clear. This "Georgia" web page posted by CM above is regarding the country of Georgia (near Russia) NOT the US state of Georgia.

Does not lessen the POTENTIAL PROBLEM of 7,000 anticipated Nigerian students arriving there but at least they are NOT arriving HERE!

Does CM know that? I know she lives around Atlanta, Georgia and she may have thought it meant the State of Georgia, USA. She's very nervous and concerned about all of this.

 

[Be Well]

My comment: I also remember reading Laurie Garrett's article about H5N1, probably the same one Pixie is referring to, and it also got me started on learning about the possibility of pandemics. Don't be put off by Garrett's credentials. She knows about diseases and what can happen. Bolding is Pixie's.

Pixie from PFI's Comment:

So I'm sitting here and thinking, "just one more story?" Then I have the thought that that story could be bad. But I hit the search button anyway. And up comes this.

It was Laurie Garrett's story in Foreign Policy in the summer of 2005 that got me involved in H5N1. And here we are. Lauri Garrett in Foreign Policy again.


Read. This.

=======

You Are Not Nearly Scared Enough about Ebola

Experimental drugs and airport screenings will do nothing to stop this plague. If Ebola hits Lagos, we're in real trouble.

BY LAURIE GARRETT
AUGUST 14, 2014

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articl...red_enough_ebola_vaccine_west_africa_outbreak

Attention World: You just don't get it.

You think there are magic bullets in some rich country's freezers that will instantly stop the relentless spread of the Ebola virus in West Africa? You think airport security guards in Los Angeles can look a traveler in the eyes and see infection, blocking that jet passenger's entry into La-la-land? You believe novelist Dan Brown's utterly absurd description of a World Health Organization that has a private C5-A military transport jet and disease SWAT team that can swoop into outbreaks, saving the world from contagion?

Wake up, fools. What's going on in West Africa now isn't Brown's silly Inferno scenario -- it's Steven Soderberg's movie Contagion, though without a modicum of its high-tech capacity.

Last week, my brilliant Council on Foreign Relations colleague John Campbell, former U.S. ambassador to Nigeria, warned that spread of the virus inside Lagos -- which has a population of 22 million -- would instantly transform this situation into a worldwide crisis, thanks to the chaos, size, density, and mobility of not only that city but dozens of others in the enormous, oil-rich nation. Add to the Nigerian scenario civil war, national elections, Boko Haram terrorists, and a country-wide doctors' strike -- all of which are real and current -- and you have a scenario so overwrought and frightening that I could not have concocted it even when I advised screenwriter Scott Burns on his Contagion script.

Inside the United States, politicians, gadflies, and much of the media are focused on wildly experimental drugs and vaccines, and equally wild notions of "keeping the virus out" by barring travelers and "screening at airports."

Let's be clear: Absolutely no drug or vaccine has been proven effective against the Ebola virus in human beings. To date, only one person -- Dr. Kent Brantly -- has apparently recovered after receiving one of the three prominent putative drugs, and there is no proof that the drug was key to his improvement. None of the potential vaccines has even undergone Phase One safety trials in humans, though at least two are scheduled to enter that stage before December of this year. And Phase One is the swiftest, easiest part of new vaccine trials -- the two stages of clinical trials aimed at proving that vaccines actually work will be difficult, if not impossible, to ethically and safely execute. If one of the vaccines is ready to be used in Africa sometime in 2015, the measure will be executed without prior evidence that it can work, which in turn will require massive public education to ensure that people who receive the vaccination do not change their behaviors in ways that might put them in contract with Ebola -- because they mistakenly believe they are immune to the virus.

We are in for a very long haul with this extremely deadly disease -- it has killed more than 50 percent of those laboratory-confirmed infections, and possibly more than 70 percent of the infected populations of Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. Nigeria is struggling to ensure that no secondary spread of Ebola comes from one of the people already infected by Liberian traveler Patrick Sawyer -- two of whom have died so far. That effort expanded on Wednesday, when Nigerian health authorities announced that a nurse who had treated Sawyer escaped her quarantine confinement in Lagos and traveled to Enugu a city that, as of 2006, has a population of about three million. Though the nurse has not shown symptoms of the disease, {since this story was written, the nurse did exhibit symptoms and has since died} the incubation time for infection, which is up to 21 days, hasn't elapsed.

Since the Ebola outbreak began in March there have been many reports of isolated cases of the disease in travelers to other countries. None have resulted, so far, in secondary spread, establishing new epidemic focuses of the disease. As I write this, such a case is thought to have occurred Johannesburg, South Africa's largest city, and another suspected case reportedly died in isolation in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, prompting the kingdom to issue special Ebola warnings for the upcoming hajj. It's only a matter of time before one of these isolated cases spreads, possibly in a chaotic urban center far larger than the ones in which it is now claiming lives: Conakry, Guinea; Monrovia, Liberia; and Freetown, Sierra Leone.

So what does "getting it" mean for understanding what we, as a global community, must now do?

First of all, we must appreciate the scale of need on the ground in the three Ebola-plagued nations. While the people may pray for magic bullets, their health providers are not working in Hollywood, but rather in some of the most impoverished places on Earth. Before Ebola, these countries spent less than $100 per year per capita on healthcare. Most Americans spend more than that annually on aspirin and ibuprofen.

We must collectively listen to the pleading and anguish coming from those courageous health providers who have seen Ebola claim more than 80 of their colleagues since the crisis began. What do they want?

On Aug. 8, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the Ebola epidemic a "public health emergency of international concern." In the agency's pronouncement, WHO noted the urgent need for local government actions, such as the cordons sanitaires recently erected, and for global mobilization of medical resources. WHO has repeatedly warned that this epidemic could persist for a minimum of six months, perhaps a year. The director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Tom Frieden, has concurred with that grim forecast.

"It's like fighting a forest fire: leave behind one burning ember, one case undetected, and the epidemic could re-ignite," Frieden recently told Congress. "Ending this outbreak will take time, at least three to six months in a best case scenario, but this is very far from a best case scenario."

At the same congressional hearing Dr. Frank Glover, a medical missionary who partners with SIM, a Christian missions organization, and president of SHIELD, a U.S.-based NGO in Africa, warned that Liberia had less than 200 doctors struggling to meet the health needs of 4 million people before the epidemic. "After the outbreak that number went down to about 50 doctors involved in clinical care," said Glover.

I myself have received emails from physicians in these countries, describing the complete collapse of all non-Ebola care, from unassisted deliveries to untended auto accident injuries. People aren't just dying of the virus, but from every imaginable medical issue a system of care usually faces.

Ken Isaacs, vice president of International Programs and Government Relations at Samaritan's Purse, the aid organization that has two of its members fighting for their lives in Ebola quarantine in Atlanta, told Congress, "It took two Americans getting the disease in order for the international community and United States to take serious notice of the largest outbreak of the disease in history. That the world would allow two relief agencies to shoulder this burden along with the overwhelmed Ministries of Health in these countries, testifies to the lack of serious attention the epidemic was given."
Despite current response mechanisms, this Ebola outbreak, Isaacs said as he closed his remarks, "is uncontained and out of control in West Africa."

Even if the world dodges a viral bullet and Ebola fails to take hold in a metropolis in a different country (such as Lagos, Johannesburg, Delhi, or Sao Paulo), controlling the disease and saving lives in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea will require resources on a scale nobody has delineated. The emotionally distraught doctors and nurses on the front lines are screaming for help.

Let's start with simple, on-the-ground manpower. All three countries desperately need doctors, nurses, medical technicians, ambulance drivers, Red Cross volunteers, epidemiologists, and health logistics experts. They do not need novice do-gooders from the wealthy world, but people experienced in working under the stifling conditions of tropical heat, the desperation of supplies deficits, and the fearfulness of epidemics. The lion's share of care to date has been provided by one group -- Médecins Sans Frontières -- which is pleading for others to relieve their exhausted ranks -- 600 people who have been fighting for months on the front lines in this war.

Nothing could be clearer than this MSF press release, dated Aug. 8:
Dr. Bart Janssens, MSF Director of Operations

"Declaring Ebola an international public health emergency shows how seriously WHO is taking the current outbreak; but statements won't save lives. Now we need this statement to translate into immediate action on the ground. For weeks, MSF has been repeating that a massive medical, epidemiological and public health response is desperately needed to saves lives and reverse the course of the epidemic. Lives are being lost because the response is too slow.

Countries possessing necessary capacities must immediately dispatch available infectious disease experts and disaster relief assets to the region. It is clear the epidemic will not be contained without a massive deployment on the ground from these states.

In concrete terms, all of the following need to be radically scaled up: medical care, training of health staff, infection control, contact tracing, epidemiological surveillance, alert and referral systems, community mobilisation and education.

MSF currently has 66 international and 610 national staff responding to the crisis in the three affected countries. All our Ebola experts are mobilized, we simply cannot do more."

Here is the list of supplies Emmet A. Dennis, president of the University of Liberia, e-mailed that he needs for his medical school personnel now fighting cases in Monrovia:

Gowns -- Isolation
Underpads -- Disposable
Gloves, Examination -- All Sizes
Body Bags - Adult & Children
Infectious Waste Bag -- Red
Face Mask -- Duckbilled
Face Shield Disposable
Eye Shields -- Disposable
Shoe Covers
Aprons - Disposable
Sanitizer Wipes
Plastic Boots
Surgical Caps -- Disposable
Disinfectant
Scrubs (L & XL)
Thermometer: Infrared -- Thermofocus
Disinfectant Soap
Chlorinated Disinfectant
Rehydration Fluids
R/L Solution
N/S Solution

It simply does not get more basic. As there are no miracle drugs for Ebola, the needs include few medicines, though other local responders tell me that they wish they had sterile syringes, saline drips, and fever modulators such as aspirin.

"Getting it," in this epidemic, means realizing that over the next six to 12 months, these countries will needs millions of dollars' worth of basic supplies, hundreds of highly skilled healthcare workers, including logistics supplies officers, and self-sufficiency for all foreigners (food, water, personal supplies). As the border blockades ending trade to these nations persist, food supplies for the population will also become acutely short, probably necessitating World Food Program assistance. Exhausted, frightened young soldiers and police will need their ranks replaced slowly with United Nations Peacekeepers or soldiers from the African Union.

And of course this list assumes Ebola remains confined in terms of secondary spread to Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. If the virus takes hold in another, more populous nation, the needs will grow exponentially, and swiftly.


-----------

Pixie's comment:

Send it, people.

 

[Be Well]

Monrovia, Liberia:

FIVE BODIES FOUND IN WEST POINT TOWNSHIP

By: Winnie Dixon (Intern)
DATE UPLOADED: AUG 13, 2014
http://www.liberianewsagency.org/pagesnews.php?nid=2130

MONROVIA, August 13 (LINA) - Residents of the Township of West Point, the largest slum in the Liberian capital Monrovia, were shocked by the discovery of five dead bodies with symptoms of the Ebola virus in their community.

West Point is a low income community with a heavily congested population of both Liberians and foreign nationals who eke out their living from fishing and petty trading as well as employment in government.

According to Montserrado County District #7 Representative Solomon George, even though a near violent situation was put under control Wednesday morning, there are still pressing issues to be addressed by the National Task Force on Ebola in responding to calls from communities arriving at the same time.

He named those concerns as the need to increase the number of burial and spraying teams, treatment units, ambulances and adequate compensation for health workers to effectively dispose of dead bodies in the communities.

Rep. George told the Liberia News Agency that as a result of the gravity of the Ebola virus, a special meeting would be convened between officials of the district and the General Service Agency Director General, Madam Mary Broh, to discuss modalities to help contain the disease in the Township.

The Representative said the U.S. Center for Disease Control experts in Liberia have alarmed that at least 20,000 persons could die of the virus in the country if things are not handled properly in a more robust and timely fashion.