CORONA Main Coronavirus thread

jward

passin' thru
Numbers

Everyone watching this thread and topic, must with certainty understand - - - there are absolutely NO accurate numbers.

Liars figure and figures lie.

Aside from the bat an rat eating co--suers, all reporting bodies have a vested interest in what you believe.


More so, in how you act.

Saying, just because - anytime someone makes a statement utilizing the figures presented by CCP - I inwardly and sometimes reflexively out-loud groan. What a wok of fish sauce!

The WHO, the CDC, the Duchy of Grand Fenwick, anyone! I simply testify to understand, no one, is going to give me -
the Gods _Honest_Truth!

Wow is that ever messed up or what?

So, to conclude; any charts, tables, graphics, and graphs, are mostly lost on me.

Asks you, "what about photo's, videos and the like?"

Sadly, the veracity of all the formerly almost indisputable, is now also suspect.

Seems as though any whiz with a desktop and a cellphone, can a viable reality be made.

Well there we are, down to the fork in the road.

Me - I'm headed to Boulder. Can't tolerate heat any longer. Never cared for Los Vegas anyway.

===

.

I assume we all are well aware the numbers aren't real, they couldn't be, could they. What they are, though is the story that is being told in this time and this place. Additionally, each source link offers a trace back to information that may or may not be important in some future effort to track down clusters, genome sequencing or just as a testament to the future of what occured.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Vincent Lee‏Verified account @Rover829 10m10 minutes ago

Reuters: Since the meeting, China's central bank has vowed to step up support for the economy and prepared policy tools to offset the damage. The NDRC said at a weekend briefing that it was urging companies and factories to resume work.
 
The Chinese have one word for Chaos and Opportunity.

Now if I could just recall it’s proper pronunciation.
In Chinese: Crisis Does NOT Mean Danger and Opportunity


Business, Coaching, Leadership
In Chinese: Crisis Does NOT Mean Danger and Opportunity

2014 August 10 Steve Nguyen, Ph.D.


JFK-crisis-danger-and-opportunity
[NOTE: This post was updated January 2017]
JFK was wrong. On pinyin.info, a website about the Chinese language, Victor H. Mair, a professor of Chinese Language and Literature at the University of Pennsylvania, firmly corrects an American linguistic blunder that interprets the word “crisis” in Chinese as meaning both “danger” and “opportunity.”
“The explication of the Chinese word for crisis as made up of two components signifying danger and opportunity is due partly to wishful thinking, but mainly to a fundamental misunderstanding about how terms are formed in Mandarin and other Sinitic languages.” -Victor H. Mair
While this linguistic faux pas, no doubt, dates much further back, it was perhaps a speech delivered by President John F. Kennedy, in Indianapolis on April 12, 1959 that is most memorable. In his speech, Kennedy incorrectly said, “The Chinese use two brush strokes to write the word ‘crisis.’ One brush stroke stands for danger; the other for opportunity.”
As Professor Mair explains (the three paragraphs below are taken directly from Dr. Mair’s article):
[The word] “crisis” (wēijī) consists of two syllables that are written with two separate characters, wēi and jī. . . . While it is true that wēijī does indeed mean “crisis” and that the wēi syllable of wēijī does convey the notion of “danger,” the jī syllable of wēijī most definitely does not (italics added for emphasis) signify “opportunity.”
The jī of wēijī, in fact, means something like “incipient moment; crucial point (when something begins or changes).” Thus, a wēijī is indeed a genuine crisis, a dangerous moment, a time when things start to go awry. A wēijī indicates a perilous situation when one should be especially wary.
If one wants to find a word containing the element jī that means “opportunity” (i.e., a favorable juncture of circumstances, or a good chance for advancement), one needs to look elsewhere than wēijī, which means precisely “crisis” (viz., a dangerous, critical moment). One might choose, for instance, zhuǎnjī (“turn” + “incipient moment” = “favorable turn; turn for the better”), liángjī (“excellent” + “incipient moment” = “opportunity” [!!]), or hǎo shíjī (“good” + “time” + “incipient moment” = “favorable opportunity”).
Takeaway: It is scary how easily we take things at face value and accept them as “truths” or “facts” without ever doing the proper research.
*For a more comprehensive discussion, please visit Danger + Opportunity ≠ Crisis: How a misunderstanding about Chinese characters has led many astray.
Written By: Steve Nguyen, Ph.D.
Leadership + Talent Development Advisor



Does 危机 really mean both crisis and opportunity?

Does 危机 really mean both crisis and opportunity?


13

A lot of people, mostly those who haven't studied Chinese, like to claim something along the lines of
"In Chinese, the word for crisis 危机, also bears the meaning of opportunity."
This is usually said right before or after making a remark that a crisis can also be a possibility.
My thought on this is that it was originally written as 危险机会 (or 危险的机会), meaning a "chance of danger", or "possibility of danger". And then, as in many other cases, character 2 and 4 dropped, to make the word 危机. In this way, it has become a misunderstanding that the word means both "danger" and "opportunity", as both of these words are represented.
My questions are
  • Am I totally wrong?
  • Do Chinese speakers really think of 危机 as both "crisis" and "opportunity"?
  • Do Chinese speakers use 危机 to describe some kinds of crises (possibly fortunate ones, less severe etc), and use another word for other kinds?
 

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/02/10/trump-rallies-new-hampshire-eve-democratic-primary/4716223002/
(fair use applies)EXCERPT
Trump says Coronavirus will be gone by April when the weather gets warmer

The president continued to suggest the Coronavirus outbreak, which has claimed 1,000 lives as of Monday, will be gone by April. He told the crowd that "in theory" once the weather warms up Coronavirus, which he referred to as "the virus," will "miraculously" go away. Trump did not offer any scientific explanation to back up his claim.

"I think it's all gonna work out fine," he said. "Rough stuff, rough stuff."

Trump echoed that claim during a speech to governors at the White House earlier on Monday, telling the group that China had given him the confidence that the outbreak would subside in Apri due to "the heat."

“The heat generally speaking kills this kind of virus,” he said.

- Courtney Subramanian


Here is a doctor being interviewed on Fox News today saying the same thing about April. He is an 'expert' he wrote a few books on pandemics. I'm pretty sure Pres Trump is getting his information from doctors like him.

Dr. Siegel is a prolific writer, a Professor of Medicine at New York University School of Medicine, a Medical Director of Doctor Radio at NYU and SiriusXM, a Fox News Medical Correspondent, a frequent columnist for the Los Angeles Times, the New York Post, Slate, FoxNews.com, National Review Online and Forbes Online, and a member of the board of contributors at USA Today.

His books:
  • False Alarm; the Truth About the Epidemic of Fear (2006)
  • Bird Flu: Everything You Need to Know About the Next Pandemic (2006)
  • The Inner Pulse: Unlocking the Secret Code of Sickness and Health (2011)


Three Hopeful Treatments for Coronavirus - One Treatment Shows Results within Hours
1min 39 sec

25 second mark he makes the comment about April


HD
 

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/02/10/trump-rallies-new-hampshire-eve-democratic-primary/4716223002/
(fair use applies)EXCERPT
Trump says Coronavirus will be gone by April when the weather gets warmer

The president continued to suggest the Coronavirus outbreak, which has claimed 1,000 lives as of Monday, will be gone by April. He told the crowd that "in theory" once the weather warms up Coronavirus, which he referred to as "the virus," will "miraculously" go away. Trump did not offer any scientific explanation to back up his claim.

"I think it's all gonna work out fine," he said. "Rough stuff, rough stuff."

Trump echoed that claim during a speech to governors at the White House earlier on Monday, telling the group that China had given him the confidence that the outbreak would subside in Apri due to "the heat."

“The heat generally speaking kills this kind of virus,” he said.

- Courtney Subramanian


Those were Pres Trump's comments at the rally in NH. These are the comments he made to the governor's earlier today:

Now, the virus that we're talking about having to do -- you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat -- as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April. We're in great shape though. We have 12 cases -- 11 cases, and many of them are in good shape now. So -- but a very good question.

[...]

Now, of course, they’re working on something else. And I think they’re doing a good job on that, on the virus. I had a long talk with President Xi -- for the people in this room -- two nights ago, and he feels very confident. He feels very confident. And he feels that, again, as I mentioned, by April or during the month of April, the heat, generally speaking, kills this kind of virus. So that would be a good thing. But we’re in great shape in our country. We have 11, and the 11 are getting better. Okay?
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Thank you so much for this! When people were saying there was no way to target a particular ethnic population, Thalassaemia, sickle cell etc, immediately jumped to my mind. I'm white as the driven snow and English as a cup of tea, however my mother, her mother and numerous uncles and cousins were all diagnosed with Thalassaemia. My grandmother was the first to be diagnosed. She was in her seventies and, receiving iron injections every month. She was getting sicker and sicker. Our village doc was from India and got the notion to test her for the disease, even though it was highly unlikely that she would have it. But sure enough, she did. Apparently, there is a small group of native Britons in the North West of England and Ireland that have it. I imagine we all have a common ancestor.

Some info:


Getting back to the virus. If it is the case that it has been targeted, intentionally or not, to this particular population, it's now even more of a worry for me, my son and my extended family back in England. :( Not wishing this virus on anyone, but it will be interesting to see how severely it will affect those in Sardinia and other places in the Med. May give us even more reason to believe that this was manufactured! Very concerning.

Thank you for answering my question about Thyroid meds btw!
Interesting that you mention Sardinia. (Please tell me why) There is a group of German people -(those descended from the Tyrolean group that Otzi the Iceman is from,) that have genes associated with Sardinia. I am one. (My ancestors came from BAVARIA and Baden-Wurttemberg Germany.)

Ref:
PLANET EARTH Ötzi the Iceman and the Sardinians Ötzi the Iceman and the Sardinians
 
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Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
THIS IS A MUST WATCH VIDEO.
There is discussion between Maria Bartiromo and WH trade advisor Peter Navarro about how we get our medicines and supplies from China; about possible weaponizing of this virus; impact on the economy; the Chinese amabassador's comments on Face the Nation on Sunday. This video has basically everything we've been discussing for the past few days. The trade advisor is totally up to date on what's going on - which begs the question - has he talked about any of this to Pres Trump face to face? It would seem not ..... (?)

China will have to be held accountable for how coronavirus started: Navarro
Fox Business
6min 28 sec
White House trade adviser Peter Navarro discusses how the coronavirus will impact American markets and whether the Chinese government is tracking American citizens.

 

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
The above video had some discussion about the Chinese ambassador's comments on a Sunday morning talk show. That show was Face the Nation, here is a video of that interview. The title to the video is a little misleading. He does dismiss some theories as absolutely crazy, but doesn't deny the weapons lab part. Skip to 2min 40 sec. He says when asked about Tom Cotton's accusations it came from a weapons lab: (not direct quote, typing as he speaks): a lot is still unknown, don't spread rumors because spreads panic and will spread xenophobia. All kinds of speculations and rumors, some say it comes from military lab from USA, so how can we believe all these crazy things.

Chinese ambassador to U.S. dismisses coronavirus theories as "absolutely crazy"
Feb 9, 2020
8 min 9 sec
Chinese Ambassador to the U.S. Ciu Tiankai provides an update on the crippling coronavirus and defends his government's response to the outbreak.
 

shane

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Trump virus task force does know the worst of it and it'd be safe to assume Trump fully does, too.

Trump could be faulted later for not publicly divulging more & sooner, but he's likely convinced it's
better easing it out slower to allow govt to first get pre-positioned to deal with it more effectively.
He could also be guilty of hoping some good news could come first, negating his need to ring alarm.
I don't know.

Panic Early, Beat the Rush!
- Shane
 
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Countrymouse

Country exile in the city

Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV
@PneumoniaWuhan

·
1m

It focused on the Sars and Mers coronaviruses and found they can persist and remain infectious at room temperature for up to nine days. The average is four to five days.

View: https://twitter.com/PneumoniaWuhan/status/1227086115083096064?s=20


Lovely.

Just Lovely.

I ordered and received on Monday an item that was SUPPOSED to be coming from the US.

It went thru Sears, thru EBay, thru (apparently) some vendor in CHINA--because when the glass rain gauge replacement bottles came--they were tightly wrapped in newspaper covered in CHINESE characters.

Which I didn't SEE till I'd opened the outer pkg, opened anther inner bubble-envelope, opened a third layer of bubble-wrap---and behold the vials wrapped in newspaper.

Since I only placed the order last week, it got here in about 4-5 days.

As soon as I realized it, I wet some paper towerls with bleach and wiped my hands, the countertop where I'd laid the vials, the doorknobs I'd touched when I walked out this morning to take the order from the Amazon delivery driver---and HEY WHAT ABOUT AMAZON as a SPREADER FOR THIS?---

So I HOPE I haven't brought this into my house, now......
 

Ragnarok

On and On, South of Heaven
Lovely.

Just Lovely.

I ordered and received on Monday an item that was SUPPOSED to be coming from the US.

It went thru Sears, thru EBay, thru (apparently) some vendor in CHINA--because when the glass rain gauge replacement bottles came--they were tightly wrapped in newspaper covered in CHINESE characters.

Which I didn't SEE till I'd opened the outer pkg, opened anther inner bubble-envelope, opened a third layer of bubble-wrap---and behold the vials wrapped in newspaper.

Since I only placed the order last week, it got here in about 4-5 days.

As soon as I realized it, I wet some paper towerls with bleach and wiped my hands, the countertop where I'd laid the vials, the doorknobs I'd touched when I walked out this morning to take the order from the Amazon delivery driver---and HEY WHAT ABOUT AMAZON as a SPREADER FOR THIS?---

So I HOPE I haven't brought this into my house, now......

I kind of have the same experience, only I caught mine first...

I ordered a couple of tourniquets from Amazon to add to my first aid supplies. I ordered them on January 25th... And then when this really took off I was wondering where they were coming from. Checked the tracking info and they shipped via China Post.

Needless to say, that box will be sitting on the front lawn, untouched, for about a month...

And, not just Amazon...

What about the postal service, FedEx, UPS, DHL, etc?
 

goosebeans

Veteran Member
Interesting that you mention Sardinia. (Please tell me why) There is a group of German people -(those descended from the Tyrolean group that Otzi the Iceman is from,) that have genes associated with Sardinia. I am one. (My ancestors came from BAVARIA and Baden-Wurttemberg Germany.)

Ref:
PLANET EARTH Ötzi the Iceman and the Sardinians Ötzi the Iceman and the Sardinians

Marsh, thank you for the link. I'm fascinated with Otzi. Like you, I'm into genealogy! From what I've read, Thalassaemia is a major problem for the people of Sardinia. Here's an article I just found about it:


I bit the bullet and had my DNA done to see if I had any Sardinian. None showed up. All British/Irish, German and Scandinavian. However, a small percentage of Spanish and Portuguese, and (this blew my mind) a trace of Korean!! On my Mom's side!! It's probably just noise but I happened to find out that in the 1500s Portugal was purchasing many hundreds of Korean slaves from Japan. ( the Koreans were prisoners of war) and bringing them back to Lisbon. So, as far fetched as it may seem, that little trace of Korean DNA just might be real.


I'm not sure if that's where the Thalassaemia came from though. That line of the family has been entrenched in the same three villages for at least three hundred years ( landed gentry) but there does just happen to be the remains of a large Roman barracks there ( it was a horse training/cavalry facility) and had a retirement home for Roman soldiers. It could have come from an ancestor there ( it was a Spanish unit) or even the vikings that also settled there later.

The fort:

Disease and it's links with genealogy is quite fascinating!

Weaponized and linked to ethnicity, pretty darned terrifying!
 
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Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
Trump virus task force does know the worst of it and it'd be safe to assume Trump fully does, too.

Trump could be faulted later for not publicly divulging more & sooner, but he's likely convinced it's
better easing it out slower to allow govt to first get pre-positioned to deal with it more effectively.
He could also be guilty of hoping some good news could come first, negating his need to ring alarm.
I don't know.

Panic Early, Beat the Rush!
- Shane

I don't know about this. I believe the task force is up to date, his trade adviser is definitely up to date, impressively so - he's the most up to date I've heard coming from the administration - but I don't know how much of this gets to Trump himself. They filter everything that he gets, not everyone gets a face to face. I wonder if the task force would agree with the April comment? I found it to be premature and naively optimistic. (unless he knows something we don't - which is always in the back of mind to explain why the CDC and WHO are appearing to act so irresponsibly with who they screen, who the let off boats, etc)

It's also interesting that when talking to the governors Trump commented that he got the April date from his conversations with President Xi. He may expect that anything he says will make the news and that his comments will get back to Xi and this is just a diplomatic 'shout-out' to Xi to keep relations calm between the countries while Xi is under so much pressure.

HD
 

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
More on the incubation period:

(fair use applies)

Coronavirus study finds incubation period of up to 24 days
Liu Denghui and Denise Jia
Feb 11, 2020 — 5.28pm

Beijing | New research based on data gathered from more than 1000 coronavirus patients in China found that the incubation period for the virus was as long as 24 days, rather than the previously-believed 14 days, and fewer than half of the patients showed fever symptoms when they first saw doctors.

The study, produced by at least three dozen researchers from Chinese hospitals and medical schools led by Zhong Nanshan, a Chinese epidemiologist who discovered the SARS coronavirus in 2003, showed that much is still unknown about the deadly virus named 2019-nCoV. An early-identification method might have defects that could have resulted in large numbers of infected people going undiscovered, the researchers found.


Fever occurred in just 43.8 per cent of patients but later developed in 87.9 per cent following hospitalisation, according to the study. Absence of fever in 2019-nCoV cases was more frequent than in SARS and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) infections, the study found.

Such patients may be missed if the surveillance case definition focused heavily on fever detection, the authors said.

Previously, before patients went through nucleic acid tests (NATs) to confirm infection, their CT scans had to show signs of viral infection, commonly reflected as ground-glass opacity or bilateral patchy shadowing in the chest.

But among the 840 patients in the study who underwent CT scans, only half showed ground-glass opacity and 46 per cent showed bilateral patchy shadowing. This means that relying on CT scans alone could fail to identify a significant proportion of infected patients, the researchers said.

The National Health Commission late last month revised its diagnostic criteria, no longer requiring that CT scans show pneumonia image to identify suspected cases. But as there is growing concern that the NATs are producing large numbers of false negatives, some doctors suggested the inclusion of CT scanning as a key basis for diagnosing coronavirus infections.

The study, published at the weekend on medical research archive medRxiv, is a prepublication paper and has not been peer-reviewed and therefore should not be used to guide clinical practice, medRxiv said.

The patients in the study came from 552 hospitals in 31 provinces between January 1 and 29. Only 1.18 per cent of patients had been in direct contact with wildlife, where researchers speculate the virus might have originated.

Nearly one-third of them had been to Wuhan and 71.8 per cent had been in contact with someone from Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak, providing further evidence of human-to-human transmission. The findings are consistent with recent reports of infections from family gatherings and transmission from people without any symptoms.

Absence of fever in 2019-nCoV cases was more frequent than in SARS and MERS infections, the study found. Such patients may be missed if the surveillance case definition focused heavily on fever detection, the researchers said.

The study cannot preclude the presence of “super-spreaders”, a small group of people who transmit infections to far more people than the majority do, the authors said. In the 2003 SARS outbreak, a doctor who had treated SARS patients in Guangdong infected 16 others when he travelled to Hong Kong to attend a family wedding.

These guests then travelled to other countries, spreading SARS into a global epidemic.

The routes of transmission might have contributed considerably to the rapid spread of the new virus, the study concluded. Like SARS and MERS the conventional routes of transmission of the new coronavirus consist of respiratory droplets and direct contact.

However, the study found that four out of 62 stool specimens, or 6.5 per cent, tested positive to 2019-nCoV, and four more patients who tested positive in rectal swabs had the 2019-nCoV detected in the gastrointestinal tract, saliva or urine. Therefore, the researchers called for integrating systemic protection measures, taking into account transmission via gastrointestinal secretions.

The study also provided a glimpse into how much threat of infection medical workers face. Among the 1099 patients, 2.09 per cent were medical workers.

China’s health authorities haven’t disclosed how many medical workers are infected. But a recent paper released by the South Central Hospital of Wuhan University, one of the designated hospitals to accept coronavirus patients, showed that 40 doctors and nurses were confirmed with infection as of January 28.

This article was originally published by Caixin.
 

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
This is a strange tweet. It comes from the Global Times so I consider it propaganda. And then I have to ask myself - why are they disseminating this information now? There are so many other explanations possible. Maybe she caught it from someone in Shanxi? Maybe she had a mild undiagnosed case a few weeks ago and this is a relapse? Maybe she had something in a suitcase that harbored the infection that she just happened to unpack now? Why assume she got it in Whuan and was incubating for 42 days? Unless she was quarantined all this time? Or is in a place where no one around her is sick and she's never left her apartment?

Once again, we're not getting enough information. Which goes back to my initial question - why release this now? What's in it for them to keep extending the quarantine period? Is this a weapon and are they learning more about how bad it can really get? (or are they afraid other countries will learn how bad it can get and they are trying to get ahead of it?)

Here's the tweet:

Global Times@globaltimesnews
7:48 PM · Feb 10, 2020

Incubation period of #nCoV may be longer than you expect. A woman in North China's Shanxi Province was diagnosed with #nCoV 42 days after returning from #Wuhan. #Cononavirus
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Marsh, thank you for the link. I'm fascinated with Otzi. Like you, I'm into genealogy! From what I've read, Thalassaemia is a major problem for the people of Sardinia. Here's an article I just found about it:


I bit the bullet and had my DNA done to see if I had any Sardinian. None showed up. All British/Irish, German and Scandinavian. However, a small percentage of Spanish and Portuguese, and (this blew my mind) a trace of Korean!! On my Mom's side!! It's probably just noise but I happened to find out that in the 1500s Portugal was purchasing many hundreds of Korean slaves from Japan. ( the Koreans were prisoners of war) and bringing them back to Lisbon. So, as far fetched as it may seem, that little trace of Korean DNA just might be real.


I'm not sure if that's where the Thalassaemia came from though. That line of the family has been entrenched in the same three villages for at least three hundred years ( landed gentry) but there does just happen to be the remains of a large Roman barracks there ( it was a horse training/cavalry facility) and had a retirement home for Roman soldiers. It could have come from an ancestor there ( it was a Spanish unit) or even the vikings that also settled there later.

The fort:

Disease and it's links with genealogy is quite fascinating!

Weaponized and linked to ethnicity, pretty darned terrifying!
Thanks for the information. I did a bit of reading and I believe Otzi predated the Roman/Punic influences by about 2500 years. Another paper specifically said Bavaria and Baden Wurttemberg were presumed to have low incidence of Thalassaemia. I thought there might be a predisposition to the virus tied with that, but it does not appear to be so.

Your ethnic discovery is fascinating. Populations moved around so much more than we understood years ago.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_xP20KGwkM
5:13 min
This is an interesting clip from a US reporter in Beijing. He is out walking about and encounters people going about their daily routine. Note many are older. This would be that "Lost Generation" raised during Mao who are said to have limited education. I learned from another video that younger people are having a lot of trouble getting to their elders that they must quarantine. Some elders insist on meeting for MahJong with their friends as usual. They are resorting to physically smashing their tables to keep them from meeting.

A Day In Life In Beijing Amid Coronavirus Outbreak
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZiSoJoVGl0
3:48 min

American who contracted coronavirus on cruise ship speaks out | ABC News Live Prime
Basically, she is telling the audience she had a slight fever and cough but now they are all gone and she is just sitting there (without a drip or any medication) waiting out the quarantine. She says only old and young people might have any more severe cases and if you are a healthy adult who has had their flu and pneumonia shots, your case should be mild. It is all a bunch of unwarranted hysteria.

...silly us
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6HbdydRnqA
7:03 min

Containing the spread of the coronavirus
•Feb 10, 2020
3-4 weeks behind Singapore. Warm weather may reduce it. Getting ready for possible surge. We have an early warning. So far they have had enough PPE, but China has absorbed the world's supply and they are looking for alternatives. (I heard on another video that China had nationalized the 3-M factory there.)
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

This Is How China Is Rigging The Number Of Coronavirus Infections

Mon, 02/10/2020 - 10:50

We knew something was off a few days ago when China's National Health Commission reported that the number of people receiving medical attention over the Coronavirus unexpectedly peaked after rising at roughly 15,000-20,000 each day, and flatlined ever since, even posting three days of declines in the past week.


The sense that China was manipulating the data only grew overnight when according to the latest NHC data, the number of suspected coronavirus cases suddenly plunged by more than 5,000 to 23,589 from 28,942 the day before.




All of this emerged even as China reported a welcome, if suspicious tapering in the number of new cases, which had plateaued at just over 3,000 (a number which according to Dr. Scott Gottlieb was not indicative of the actual infection spread but merely China's ability to conduct at most 3,000 successful tests per day) and have since been declining.

In retrospect it turns out that China indeed "took steps" to demonstrate to the world that it was winning the war against the coronavirus. And since it wasn't doing so in the real world, it decided to do so by engaging in the oldest trick in the Chinese book: by moving the goal posts and changing the definition of what an "infection" means.

As reported by local media this morning, the Chinese National Health Commission quietly changed its definition of Coronavirus "confirmed case" in the latest guideline dated 7/2. As a result, going forward patients who tested positive for the virus but have no symptoms will no longer be regarded as confirmed. As Alex Lam observes, "this inevitably will lower the numbers."

As Apple Daily reports, in the latest, fourth edition of the NHC protocol, "mild" is classified as "confirmed cases" but "asymptomatic infected persons" is defined as "persons with no clinical symptoms, respiratory tract specimens, etc. who are positive for new coronavirus pathogenic tests." As a result, "asymptomatic infection" no longer counts as confirmed cases.

Conveniently, the new rule has triggered provinces "to find cases that can be deducted from the total number of confirmed cases." For example, Heilongjiang has axed 13 cases from their tally stating the new definition. Hubei has deducted 87 cases today, but authorities did not explain why."

In total, over 100 cases have been deducted from the running "confirmed case" total over the past 2 days, while also impacting the number of suspected cases. The concerning problem, however, is that authorities do not disclose the number of symptom-less infected patients after they count them separately, and as Alex Lam cautions, "there will be no way of knowing the exact magnitude of the outbreak."

This, of course, is a problem because as a recent article written by a team led by Dr. Zhong Nanshan, suggested the WuhanCoronavirus can be transmitted by infected patients even they without them showing symptoms, which is what makes the virus so infectious, as "sick people could be spreading it without knowing."

One final note: China's bizarre change in definition conflicts with that of the WHO itself which put out an interim guidance on the Wuhan Coronavirus last month, when it present a definition for Confirmed Case: "person with laboratory confirmation irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms. It is very clear. "

This shocking "change in definition" of a coronavirus infection naturally prompts the question: just how is China gaming the other infection data to make the disease appear more contained, and more manageable, and can one even remotely trust the official coronavirus numbers published by the National Health Commission?
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

"We're Definitely Not Prepared" - African Healthcare Officials Fear Virus Spread
Mon, 02/10/2020 - 22:25

While the African continent continues to battle plagues of locust and food shortages, an even bigger worry is looming on the horizon, that some of the Chinese workers have carried the virus to Ethiopia or the African countries they work in, and will those countries be able to contain it while they can, while the numbers are small?

The virus that has spread through much of China has yet to be confirmed in Africa, but global health authorities are increasingly worried about the threat to the continent where an estimated 1 million Chinese now live, as some health workers on the ground warn they are not ready to handle an outbreak.


As we detailed previously, if travel bans to and from the infected parts of China turn out to have been justified then one country in particular may be worth watching, Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s Bole International airport is the main African gateway to and from China. On average 1500 passengers per day arrive from China every day. Ethiopia scans them all for symptoms which essentially means taking their temperature.

Many of those passengers then fly on to other parts of Africa where Chinese companies are doing business. These are 2018 figures courtesy of Brookings.


Unfortunately, as AP reports, it does not appear so... at least yet. Countries are racing to take precautions as hundreds of travelers arrive from China every day. Safeguards include stronger surveillance at ports of entry and improved quarantine and testing measures across Africa, home to 1.2 billion people and some of the world’s weakest systems for detecting and treating disease.

But the effort has been complicated by a critical shortage of testing kits and numerous illnesses that display symptoms similar to the flu-like virus.
“The problem is, even if it’s mild, it can paralyze the whole community,” said Dr. Michel Yao, emergency operations manager in Africa for the World Health Organization.
Those growing worried include employees at the Sino-Zambia Friendship Hospital in the mining city of Kitwe in northern Zambia, near the Congo border. Chinese companies operate mines on the outskirts of the city of more than half a million people. One company is headquartered in Wuhan, the city at the center of the virus outbreak. Hundreds of workers traveled between Zambia and China in recent weeks.
“We’re definitely not prepared. If we had a couple of cases, it would spread very quickly,” physiotherapist Fundi Sinkala said.
“We’re doing the best we can with what resources we have.”

The Sino-Zambia Friendship Hospital, or Sinozam, a low-slung facility near the city’s train station, has taken some precautions, including checking patient temperatures with infrared thermometers and establishing isolation areas.



Without testing, officials are “just relying on the symptoms” and whether they persist.

“But from what we are learning right now, some people show hardly any symptoms at all,” physiotherapist Fundi Sinkala said, calling that the hospital’s biggest worry.

Chinese embassies in Zambia and elsewhere in Africa have been unusually outspoken, giving news conferences and television interviews to discuss their response to the outbreak. Embassies require arriving Chinese citizens to declare where they have been in China. They also urge citizens to voluntarily isolate themselves for 14 days.
“We are now practicing hygiene, even in the mines,” said the Kitwe-based president of the Mine Workers Union of Zambia, Joseph Chewe.
“Any report of a person with coronavirus here will be very disastrous.”
The WHO says countries are obligated to inform it of any confirmed cases and are requested to report suspected cases as well. The WHO chief has publicly urged countries to share information. So far, African countries appear to be complying, a WHO adviser on health security, Dr. Ambrose Talisuna, told reporters.
 

ainitfunny

Saved, to glorify God.
Grandma sez-
Most of you can skip this post, but for those of you who can read and understand technical stuff, here are the considerations and challenges in making/selecting a mask/filtering system/product that will stop something as small as a virus.

Most people simply think it is only a matter of simply straining out a virus by progressively smaller mechanical filtration. (some kinds of felts may be more effective than cloth) even breathable Goretex layers of filtering is mentioned.

One big problem is “caking” where if you make the filtration small enough to filter what you want stopped, it pretty quickly becomes “plugged up” with dust and other, larger particles and can’t pass ANY air without something greatly forcing the air. The pressure drop across the soon “plugged up” filter or mask becomes too great. (Mask or filter collapses and passage of ANY air ceases)

But there are OTHER FORCES (Brownian motion, Van der Waals forces, Airstream velocity, low vs high inertia particles to be filtered, etc) which act on micron sized particles that allow larger mechanical filter openings than most would think would allow passage of viruses, but those other forces actually act to capture smaller particles than the mechanical size of the filter.

This WHY an N95 mask works to filter viruses even though it’s mechanical filtration is larger than the physical size of a virus! Capeesh?


(Always consult the experts) The Engineer’s Clean Air Handbook:

 
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marsh

On TB every waking moment

Body Count Bull$hit
Mon, 02/10/2020 - 18:45

Authored by Ben Hunt via EpsilonTheory.com,

Over time, continual bad news will discourage any civilian population, and Americans had the lowest tolerance on the planet for bad news.
Karl Marlantes, “Matterhorn” (2009)
Have you read Matterhorn, by Karl Marlantes? You should. It’s not just the best novel I’ve ever read about the Vietnam War, but it’s also one of my irreplaceable sources of inspiration for understanding The Maw – that unlimited gluttony of the violent State to chomp on our bones and suck out our minds … and the oddly not-so-rare instances of individual human bravery to persevere regardless.

I would bet my life that there are thousands of instances of individual human bravery persevering against The Maw happening right now … in Wuhan … in Wenzhou … in dozens of other quarantined cities throughout China.
And in Xinjiang, too.



What was my first experience with The Maw? It was as a seven-year-old boy watching the nightly news on our little black-and-white set, where every night … EVERY NIGHT … we were told exactly how many American and South Vietnamese and North Vietnamese soldiers had been killed that day.

The American numbers were accurate, I guess, and the South Vietnamese numbers were probably in the right ballpark. But the North Vietnamese numbers of wounded and killed? Pure fiction.

The daily body count of killed and wounded North Vietnamese soldiers was, in Epsilon Theory-speak, a cartoon – an abstraction of an abstraction in service to the creation of Common Knowledge.

Hey, everyone knows that everyone knows that we’re winning the war in Vietnam. Didn’t you see the body count numbers on CBS last night?

Once you start looking for cartoons, you will see them everywhere.
Inflation numbers? Cartoon.

Employment data? Cartoon.
Asset allocation? Electoral coverage? Financial journalism? Cartoon, cartoon, cartoon.
And yes, we write a lot about cartoons. You can read more here, here, here, here, here and here. For starters.
But this is the kicker.

Because it was so important to maintain the fiction that we were Winning the War ™, and that fiction required metrics like a body count of North Vietnamese that was always a multiple of the South Vietnamese casualties and always a factor of the American casualties, American war-fighting policy was soon driven by the narrative requirement to find and count the “right number” of North Vietnamese casualties!


These were the infamous search-and-destroy missions of the Vietnam War.
This is The Maw in action.

Do a little research on search-and-destroy. Read about My Lai and Son Thang. Read Matterhorn.
And then take a fresh look at the coronavirus stats coming out of China.
Here’s the core post in a reddit thread that’s Matterhorn-esque in its truth (and a heck of a lot shorter to read).

The point of this quadratic regression on Chinese infection and death numbers as reported by the World Health Organization from the first official announcement through February 4 was the publication of this projection.


Sure enough, the WHO announcements since this prediction was published have been eerily close.
  • 2/5 — 24,363 cases — 491 fatalities
  • 2/6 — 28,060 cases — 564 fatalities
  • 2/7 — 31,211 cases — 637 fatalities
  • 2/8 — 34,598 cases — 723 fatalities
  • 2/9 — 37,251 cases — 812 fatalities
  • 2/10 — 40,171 cases — 908 fatalities
Crazy, right? The deaths being reported out of China are particularly accurate to the model, while the reported cases are leveling off (which is what you’d expect from a politically adjusted epidemic model over time … at some point you have to show a rate-of-change improvement from your epidemic control measures).

But wait, there’s more.

The really damning part of Antimonic’s modeling of the reported data with a quadratic formula is that this should be impossible. This is not how epidemics work.

All epidemics take the form of an exponential function, not a quadratic function.

All epidemics – before they are brought under control – take the form of a green line, an exponential function of some sort. It is impossible for them to take the form of a blue line, a quadratic formula of some sort. This is what the R-0 metric of basic reproduction rate means, and if – as the WHO has been telling us from the outset – the nCov2019 R-0 is >2, then the propagation rate must be described by a pretty steep exponential curve. As the kids would say, it’s just math.

Now I don’t want to get into the weeds as to whether it’s possible to model this specific data set with an exponential function (it probably is), and we’ll never have access to the detail of data we’d need to be certain about all this. And to be clear, at some point the original exponential spread of a disease becomes “sub-exponential” as containment and treatment measures kick in.

But I’ll say this … it’s pretty suspicious that a quadratic expression fits the reported data so very, very closely. In fact, I simply can’t imagine any real-world exponentially-propagating virus combined with real-world containment and treatment regimes that would fit a simple quadratic expression so beautifully.

I believe that the Chinese government is massively under-reporting infection data in the pandemic regions of Hubei and Zhejiang provinces.

Just like the American government massively over-reported North Vietnamese casualty data in the Vietnam War.

It’s not only that I believe the numbers coming out of China are largely made up.
More importantly, I also believe that Chinese epidemic-fighting policy – just like American war-fighting policy in the Vietnam War – is now being driven by the narrative requirement to find and count the “right number” of coronavirus casualties.
nCov2019 is China’s Vietnam War.


From a narrative perspective, China is fighting this war against nCov2019 exactly like the US fought its war against North Vietnam.

It’s what the Best and the Brightest always do … they convince themselves that the people can’t handle the truth, particularly if the truth ain’t such good news. They convince themselves that they can buy enough time to win the real-world war by designing and employing a carefully constructed “communication strategy” to win the narrative-world war.

That strategy proved to be a social and political disaster for the United States, as the cartoon tail (gotta get more NV casualties for Cronkite to report) ended up wagging the policy dog (send out more counterproductive search-and-destroy missions).

I think exactly the same thing is happening in China.

And I think the social and political repercussions will be exactly as disastrous.
 

ainitfunny

Saved, to glorify God.
When you look at seemingly greatly conflicting studies it is EASY to sort it out. The overall coronavirus group being evaluated for stats can be DEFINED quite differently by different researchers.
If you only consider patients, (regardless of symptoms)) who have tested positive for the virus, you will get a much LOWER death rate than if you only include symptomatic, hosptalized patients for whom there are NOT ENOUGH CORONAVIRUS TEST KITS AVAILABLE to test if they actually have/had the virus.
 

China Connection

TB Fanatic
I think people are expecting miracles of the government.

Each year about 60% plus of kids get the bug going around. They bring it home and their parents can catch it. Mostly nobody has to go to hospital over it.

Now take this bug in mention. Most parents would end up in hospital. Who looks after the kids?

What happens when all the beds are taken at hospital?

What happens when the hospital staff gets sick?

What happens when hospital staff stay home because they are scared?

What happens when the power and water gets shut off due to sick staff in these industries?

It would seem that one will have to care for one's self!!!!
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
I think that is why the guy who allegedly was running the crematorium was saying more than half of the corpses he was getting were people who died at home. The really sick are occupying the ICUs and equipment for weeks until they recover. Sick people can't get a bed. I bet most of them are old with an "underlying chronic condition."
 

ainitfunny

Saved, to glorify God.
View: https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1227064637390192640



TIME TO ABANDON SHIP. The Princess Diamond with 136 cases (largest cluster outside ) has become a live Petri dish. In fact, 10 crew also infected, crew also bunk together, +prepare food/serve others. Must evacuate ASAP. ⁦C’mon @WHO⁩ + Japan! Coronavirus Cases Double On Quarantined Cruise Ship. Is It Time To Evacuate Passengers?

BA962485-CBEF-4E7C-88C8-0D4B6CBB97D4.jpeg

I was taught that the skull and crossbones flag was a NAVAL WARNING FLAG that the ship had serious contagious disease (like smallpox) aboard. The Diamond Princess probably SHOULD be flying it.

PIRATES, seeing the advantage of not being troubled by any authorities wanting to board such a ship to examine their paperwork, passengers, and cargo took up flying that “plague flag” to escape the long arm of the law.

We now see later representations of that flag that clearly imply “pirate ship” but those were never used since it would have “blown” the credibility of the disease ruse. They used the universal plague/disease flag, No eyepatch, no crossed swords.
 
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Tarryn

Senior Member
Screwed. We are all screwed.

First US evacuee infected with coronavirus was mistakenly released from hospital

First US evacuee infected with coronavirus was mistakenly released from hospital
By Jon Passantino, CNN
Updated 2:25 AM EST, Tue February 11, 2020

article video



(CNN)The first US evacuee from China known to be infected with the Wuhan coronavirus was mistakenly released from a San Diego hospital after an initial test found the person had not been infected, local health officials said Monday.
Wuhan coronavirus: Deaths top 1,000 as WHO team arrives in China
Wuhan coronavirus: Deaths top 1,000 as WHO team arrives in China

The patient arrived in the US last week at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar on a State Department flight from Wuhan, China, and was hospitalized with three others after showing possible symptoms of the virus. After an initial CDC test showed all four patients did not have the novel coronavirus, they were released Sunday and returned to the 14-day federal quarantine at Miramar, the University of California, San Diego Health said in a statement.
"This morning, CDC officials advised San Diego Public Health that further testing revealed that one of the four patients tested positive for (novel coronavirus)," UC San Diego Health said in a statement. "The confirmed positive patient was returned to UC San Diego Health for observation and isolation until cleared by the CDC for release."

Another person at Miramar was also hospitalized on Monday afternoon and was being tested for the coronavirus. Both patients "are doing well and have minimal symptoms," UC San Diego Health said.

The San Diego case is the 13th to be confirmed in the US and the seventh in California. Eleven of these cases have been confirmed in people who recently traveled to Wuhan, China; the other two are instances of person-to-person transmission
 

Tarryn

Senior Member
Coronavirus emergency 'holds a very grave threat' for world - WHO

Coronavirus emergency 'holds a very grave threat' for world - WHO
Stephanie Nebehay, Reuters
Posted at Feb 11 2020 07:20 PM
20200211-hong-kong-rtr.jpg
A child waves as she sits in a vehicle carrying residents evacuated from a public housing building, following the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, outside Hong Mei House, at Cheung Hong Estate in Hong Kong, China, Feb. 11, 2020. Tyrone Siu, Reuters
GENEVA - China's coronavirus outbreak poses a "very grave threat for the rest of the world," the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) said Tuesday in an appeal for sharing virus samples and speeding up research into drugs and vaccines.
WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus was addressing the start of a 2-day meeting aimed at accelerating development of drugs, diagnostics and vaccines against the flu-like virus amid growing concerns about its ability to spread.

To date China has reported 42,708 confirmed cases, including 1,017 deaths, Tedros said.
"With 99 percent of cases in China, this remains very much an emergency for that country, but one that holds a very grave threat for the rest of the world," he told more than 400 researchers and national authorities, including some taking part by video conference from mainland China and Taiwan.
Tedros, speaking to reporters on Monday, referred to "some concerning instances of onward transmission from people with no travel history to China," citing cases this week in France and Britain.
Five British nationals were diagnosed with the coronavirus in France, after staying in the same ski chalet with a person who had been in Singapore.
"The detection of this small number of cases could be the spark that becomes a bigger fire. But for now it's only a spark. Our objective remains containment," he said.
Hong Kong residents evacuated from a residential building where a man and woman confirmed with coronavirus live tested negative for the virus, health authorities said Tuesday, easing concerns of a cluster of the outbreak in the Chinese-ruled city.
Many questions remain about the origin of the virus, which emerged at a wildlife market in the central Chinese city of Wuhan in December, and is spread by people in droplets from coughing or sneezing.
"We hope that one of the outcomes of this meeting will be an agreed roadmap for research around which researchers and donors will align," Tedros told the closed-door meeting, according to remarks made available by the UN agency.
"The bottom line is solidarity, solidarity, solidarity. That is especially true in relation to sharing of samples and sequences," Tedros said. "To defeat this outbreak, we need open and equitable sharing, according to the principles of fairness and equity."
Dr. Mike Ryan, WHO's top emergencies experts, told reporters on Monday: "This is an amazing initiative to centralize our knowledge."
The aim was to identify gaps and generate scientific information for urgently needed medical interventions, he said.
"This is not just simply scientific discourse, there are big issues to do with how that whole process is governed," Ryan said, citing the need to "ensure equitable access" to any products derived from research and approved by regulators.
"Bringing everybody together I think will give us a leap-frog moment in terms of coherence, priority-setting," he said.
A week ago, only 2 laboratories in Africa could diagnose the novel coronavirus but as of Sunday, the WHO expected every nation in Africa to be able to diagnose the disease
 

SmithJ

Veteran Member
Lovely.

Just Lovely.

I ordered and received on Monday an item that was SUPPOSED to be coming from the US.

It went thru Sears, thru EBay, thru (apparently) some vendor in CHINA--because when the glass rain gauge replacement bottles came--they were tightly wrapped in newspaper covered in CHINESE characters.

Which I didn't SEE till I'd opened the outer pkg, opened anther inner bubble-envelope, opened a third layer of bubble-wrap---and behold the vials wrapped in newspaper.

Since I only placed the order last week, it got here in about 4-5 days.

As soon as I realized it, I wet some paper towerls with bleach and wiped my hands, the countertop where I'd laid the vials, the doorknobs I'd touched when I walked out this morning to take the order from the Amazon delivery driver---and HEY WHAT ABOUT AMAZON as a SPREADER FOR THIS?---

So I HOPE I haven't brought this into my house, now......

Wow! And the virus can probably stay viable a long time wrapped up like that.
 

Troke

On TB every waking moment


Some Experts Worry as a Germ-Phobic Trump Confronts a Growing Epidemic
When President Barack Obama contended with an Ebola outbreak, Mr. Trump demanded measures like canceling flights, forcing quarantines and even denying the return of American medical workers.

WASHINGTON — When an outbreak of the Ebola virus touched the United States’ shores in mid-2014, Donald J. Trump was still a private citizen. But he had strong opinions about how America should act.

Mr. Trump, who has spoken openly about his phobia of germs, closely followed the epidemic, and offered angry commentary about what he said was the Obama administration’s dangerous response. He demanded draconian measures like canceling flights, forcing quarantines and even denying the return of American medical workers who had contracted the disease in Africa.

“Ebola patient will be brought to the U.S. in a few days — now I know for sure that our leaders are incompetent. KEEP THEM OUT OF HERE!” Mr. Trump tweeted on that July 31 after learning that one American medical worker would be evacuated to Atlanta from Liberia. “The U.S. cannot allow EBOLA infected people back,” Mr. Trump wrote the next day, adding: “People that go to far away places to help out are great — but must suffer the consequences!”

In nearly 50 tweets, as well as in appearances on Fox News and other networks, Mr. Trump supported flight bans and strict quarantines and branded President Barack Obama’s deployment of troops to West Africa to fight the disease as “morally unfair.”

Many health experts called Mr. Trump’s responses extreme, noting that the health workers would have most likely faced agonizing deaths had they not been evacuated to American hospitals. Former Obama administration officials said his commentary stoked alarmism in the news media and spread fear among the public.

Now Mr. Trump confronts another epidemic in the form of the coronavirus, this time at the head of the country’s health care and national security agencies. The illness has infected few people in the United States, but health officials fear it could soon spread more widely. And while Mr. Trump has so far kept his distance from the issue, public health experts worry that his extreme fear of germs, disdain for scientific and bureaucratic expertise and suspicion of foreigners could be a dangerous mix, should he wind up overseeing a severe outbreak at home.

“Having a head of state who is trusted, who is a credible message deliverer, consistent in communications and consistent with evidence, is absolutely necessary,” said Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “There’s so much misinformation out there, so a central role is for a leader to be a go-to source for credible information.”

For the most part, Mr. Trump has been uncharacteristically restrained in his commentary about the virus, partly for fear of elevating the subject and further rattling financial markets, according to a person briefed on his thinking. Instead, he has largely delegated the response to senior health officials.

At the end of January, Mr. Trump created a 12-member coronavirus task force, which will be managed by the National Security Council. It includes the health and human services secretary, Alex M. Azar II; Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health; and Dr. Robert R. Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.


Twelve cases of the coronavirus have been confirmed in the United States, including a 35-year-old man in Washington State, a couple in their 60s in Chicago and six people in California. If you live in California, here’s what this means for you.
Pittsburgh, Wuhan’s “sister city,” has been shaken by the outbreak and is sending aid to relatives and friends trapped in the center of a deadly outbreak.
Hundreds of Americans evacuated from Wuhan arrived on military bases, where they were expected to remain in quarantine for days.
Hundreds of Americans who recently traveled to China are isolating themselves in ‘self quarantines’ for 14 days.
There was a race to contain the disease after one man’s cough became confirmation of America’s first case.
A high school exchange student may have been among the last Americans to arrive home in time to avoid the mandated quarantine.
Mask hoarders may increase the risk of an outbreak in the U.S. Health care workers risk infection if they cannot get the protective gear.
Most experts agree: To protect yourself wash your hands and avoid touching your face.
Tips to not get sick while traveling.
Affected by travel? Or do you know someone who is? Please contact us at coronavirus@nytimes.com if you are willing to be contacted by a reporter or have your comments used for a coming story.
All three have experience dealing with infectious diseases, especially Mr. Fauci, who has helped to manage the response to numerous outbreaks, including the AIDS epidemic, the SARS virus and Ebola.

In many of his remarks he has made, Mr. Trump has praised President Xi Jinping of China, even though his government has been widely criticized for a clumsy and initially secretive response to the coronavirus, and made some questionable announcements.

“They’re working really hard, and I think they’re doing a very professional job,” Mr. Trump said on Friday.

Speaking to a meeting of the nation’s governors on Monday, he predicted that the virus will have run its course by spring and again referred to the Chinese president.

“The virus that we’re talking about having to do, a lot of people think that goes away in April, with the heat, as the heat comes in, typically that will go away in April,” Mr. Trump said. Referring to the United States, he added: “We’re in great shape, though. We have 12 cases, 11 cases, and many of them are in good shape now.” (The number of confirmed cases is 12, according to a Monday update by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.)

“I had a long talk with President Xi two nights ago,” he added. “He feels very confident. He feels that again, as I mentioned, by April or during the month of April, the heat generally speaking kills this kind of virus. So that would be a good thing.”

Public health experts questioned the speculative nature of his comments. “I think there is a lot we still don’t know about this virus, and I’m not sure we can say definitively that it will dissipate with warmer weather,” said Dr. Rebecca Katz, director of the Center for Global Health Science and Security at Georgetown University.

“Relying on the fact that it’s going to warm up in April as reassurance that the virus will be controlled by then I think is arguable,” added Dr. James M. Hughes, a professor emeritus of medicine at Emory University.

Other comments from Mr. Trump about the disease have been inaccurate or met with criticism. In late January, he wrote on Twitter that five coronavirus cases had been confirmed in the United States just hours after a sixth had been confirmed. Addressing the virus on Feb. 2, Mr. Trump boasted to Fox News, “We pretty much shut it down coming in from China.”

The words “shut it down” apparently referred to an executive order the president had issued two days earlier, barring entry to the United States by foreign citizens who traveled to China in the past two weeks. Some health experts worry that Mr. Trump overpromised because the order — which the White House announced abruptly, with little outside consultation — is unlikely to prevent the illness from reaching the United States, and federal health officials say they assume the number of cases in the United States is likely to increase.

Speaking at a Friday news briefing, Mr. Azar defended the president’s actions and said the new travel restrictions were “very measured and incremental” while praising Mr. Trump’s “aggressive” response overall.

Presidential words have played an important role in past health crises. Ronald Reagan was severely criticized for his slow response to the spread of H.I.V. and for recommending abstinence to address the infection. Mr. Obama resisted pressure from Mr. Trump and others to institute sweeping travel bans and quarantines, calling them alarmist and urging levelheaded thinking.

“This is a serious disease, but we can’t give in to hysteria or fear because that only makes it harder to get people the accurate information they need,” Mr. Obama said in October 2014 in a radio address. “We have to be guided by the science. We have to remember the basic facts.”

Mr. Trump’s record on presenting facts has been a persistent source of criticism in the scientific community. The last time the White House became involved in managing a national emergency, during Hurricane Dorian in September, he misstated an official forecast of the storm’s path, then displayed a tracking map in the Oval Office that he appeared to have altered with one of his signature Sharpie pens.

“Trump has the right people, but the wrong instincts and the wrong structure,” said Ronald Klain, who directed the Obama administration’s response to the 2014 Ebola crisis. “Our government is staffed with the best experts, scientists and medical leaders in the world. But Trump’s instincts — anti-science, anti-expert, isolationist and xenophobic — risk that he will eschew that advice at critical points.”

Another factor is Mr. Trump’s lifelong obsession with personal hygiene. While he has shown little interest in health or science policy, he has often spoken of his extreme revulsion to germs.

In his 2004 book, “How to Get Rich,” the president declared himself “very much of a germophobe,” and wrote that he was “waging a personal crusade to replace the mandatory and unsanitary handshake with the Japanese custom of bowing.”

As a result, Mr. Trump generally avoids the political tradition of shaking dozens of hands after his speeches and rallies, and frequently uses hand sanitizer. He is quick to banish aides who cough and sneeze in his presence. In a January 2017 interview, the president’s personal physician, Dr. Harold N. Bornstein, said Mr. Trump always “changes the paper himself” in the examining room.

In that regard, Mr. Trump may have gained at least a temporary ally in Mr. Xi. Mingling for the cameras with Beijing residents Monday, Mr. Xi, who sported a surgical mask, recommended they skip the customary form of greeting. “Let’s not shake hands in this special time,” he said.

Lawrence K. Altman and Maggie Haberman contributed reporting. Kitty Bennett contributed research.

The first step in blaming Trump for what happens.
 

Hfcomms

EN66iq
KOMO (Seattle) Radio News just now- 250 people in King County(Seattle) have been asked by health authorities to “self quarrantine”.

Which means....pretty please? All it takes is one or two infected people that decide to go out to eat and then a movie and it’s off to the races. They have to impose a quarantine with swift legal penalties if it’s broken. You can tell them to quarantine at home but then mobilize resources to make sure someone brings them food and other necessities. And of course none of this is reported on national media only local. Shhhhh...
 
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