CORONA Main Coronavirus thread

[TheSearcher]

Looks like someone was bored and had a red pen. Decided to color a bit....

Spirograph.

 

[library lady]

Forgive me if this has already been posted.

February 10, 2020

The urgent questions scientists are asking about coronavirus


An important op-ed in The New York Times by Dr. Gabriel Yeung, epidemiologist and dean of medicine at the University of Hong Kong: Opinion | The Urgent Questions Scientists Are Asking About Coronavirus. Excerpt:

GENEVA — Around the world and around the clock, scientists are trying to figure out what must be done to end the global health emergency unleashed by the new coronavirus. As the outbreak accelerates and spreads, dozens of countries have deployed increasingly stringent measures to try to contain the epidemic. Almost as quickly, in a herculean effort, an international network of researchers at data and wet laboratories has started gathering and analyzing data to unmask and disarm this perplexing new disease.

In magnitude, scale and velocity, this coronavirus, known as 2019-nCoV, is too big a problem for any one team to solve. On Monday, China reported its largest single-day death toll, 97, pushing the total reported dead worldwide to 910, with more than 40,500 people infected on four continents.

On Tuesday, I’m joining my fellow scientists at the World Health Organization headquarters for an urgent meeting to piece together, like a giant jigsaw puzzle, our findings so far. We need to get a clear view of the contagion and plug the holes in our understanding of the disease to inform public health decisions that affect hundreds of millions of lives. Science has a critical role to play in restoring calm.

Let’s start with what we know. The new coronavirus is a close cousin of viruses that infect bats. It jumped from an unconfirmed wild source (most likely bats) to an intermediate host, possibly pangolins or other small mammals, being sold as food at a market in Wuhan, a transportation and commercial hub in central China. The infected people unknowingly spread it to others, setting off the outbreak’s deadly journey. We now estimate that it takes about five to six days — possibly upward of 14 days — for someone to show symptoms after becoming infected.

What do we most need to know next? For epidemiologists who track infectious diseases, the most pressing concerns are how to estimate the lethality of the disease and who is susceptible; getting detailed information on how it spreads; and evaluating the success of control measures so far.

No. 1 is the “clinical iceberg” question: How much of it is hidden below the surface? Because the outbreak is still evolving, we can’t yet see the totality of those infected. Out of view is some proportion of mildly infected people, with minor symptoms or no symptoms, who no one knows are infected.

A fleet of invisible carriers sounds ominous; but in fact, an enormous hidden figure would mean many fewer of the infected are dying. Usually, simple math would determine this “case fatality” ratio: divide the total number of deaths by the total number of people infected. In an emerging epidemic, however, both numbers keep changing, and sometimes at different speeds. This makes simple division impossible; you will invariably get it wrong.

In 2003, during the early days of the SARS outbreak, the medical community got the math wrong. At first, we believed that case fatality hovered between 2 percent and 3 percent. It took two pages of longhand algebra, written in Oxford, England, coded into a computer in London and then applied to data from Hong Kong, to get it right. The actual case fatality for Hong Kong was staggering: 17 percent.

That’s not to suggest we’re facing as dire a scenario now. Several groups, including mine, are each using our own methods to calculate a preliminary estimate of the new virus’s lethality. If there’s near agreement among our findings, expected within the week, we’ll be more confident in describing the new coronavirus. Does it resemble the seasonal flu, SARS or one of the largest plagues in human history, the 1918-19 “Spanish flu” pandemic?

Knowing the number of people likely to die, or who get seriously sick or have zero symptoms, will help health authorities determine the strength of the response required. They can better estimate how many isolation beds, heart-lung machines and medicines, among other things, are needed.

Last month, to start understanding the severity of this illness, my team assisted Chinese experts in analyzing the initial 425 confirmed cases of infection. We learned that 65 percent of people had neither visited a market nor been exposed to another person showing pneumonialike symptoms, which implied, among other things, the possibility that some infected people don’t suffer from obvious symptoms — meaning the illness isn’t always severe.

Along with getting a grasp on the level of severity is figuring out susceptibility, or who is most at risk for infection. The data so far indicates that this would include older adults, the obese and people with underlying medical conditions. There are few reports of children becoming infected. But are they not showing symptoms, or are they immune? And could they infect others as silent carriers? We must study those under 18 to find out; the answers could help us fine-tune public health measures. For example, should schools in China and Hong Kong remain closed?

 

[20Gauge]

Yep I sure did...... post 302 on this thread......

Ha I called it..... Hookers are the mode of transport for the China Flu

 

[OldArcher]

"DISPOSAL CREW" !!!


View attachment 182395

I think we've seen it before, but here's the link anyway:

Datagram (@datagram1) | Twitter

The latest Tweets from Datagram (@datagram1). Permanently shadow banned. If you want to find out what the world is really like, This is the best information feed for you. Updated every day. United Kingdom

twitter.com

Plus this one:

View attachment 182396

Th' virus gives th' murderous bastids plenty of options fer gettin' rid o' "deplorables." Convenient, donchaknow?

OA

 

[Profit of Doom]

Last week I sent my sister, who lives in the Champaign/Urbana area a link to interview by Francis Boyle - a professor at U of I. She used to work at U of I and is very proud of that - so, I started the conversation asking if she knew of him and telling her a little bit about him - he wrote the US Biological Weapons Anti-Terrorism Act of 1989, etc... She didn't know him, but she said that U of I was filled with "heavy hitters." So, then I mentioned that he was VERY concerned about this coronavirus. So, immediately she reversed her stance and said that "The university was also known to hire and/or keep crazies, esp. ones who start off with good credentials. And then she told me that she had just listened to the interview (which was 30 minutes long - so, there's no way she listened to even a fraction of it) and passed it all off as fiction. It's so maddening!

What is her personality type?

 

[marsofold]

Governments may censor politically sensitive shortwave station broadcasts, but amateur operators cannot be totally silenced. The amateur 80 meter band is smaller internationally and travels less far. The 20 meter band use to be the long range band, but due to the current sunspot minima is far less reliable. The 40 meter band from 7Mhz-7.3Mhz is the best range for hearing from international amateur voice operators if government censorship becomes an issue. Preferably use a receiver with single sideband reception, and not just commercial station AM. Many older SW radios have front panel beat frequency oscillators that need to be switched on to enable their single sideband reception for amateur reception.

 

[TheSearcher]

Sounds, more to me, like they are saying, "We don't have a freaking clue what we are dealing with!"

I'd say that's part of it, but the extra days were tacked on to make people wary, scared, and malleable while TPTB continue to work the problem.

 

[library lady]

One more study:

1Report 4: Severity of 2019-novel coronavirus (nCoV)

Ilaria Dorigatti+, Lucy Okell+, Anne Cori, Natsuko Imai , Marc Baguelin, Sangeeta Bhatia, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Zulma Cucunubá, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Rich FitzJohn, Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe , Arran Hamlet, Wes Hinsley, Nan Hong , Min Kwun, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Steven Riley, Sabine van Elsland, Erik Volz, Haowei Wang, Raymond Wang, Caroline Walters , Xiaoyue Xi, Christl Donnelly, Azra Ghani, Neil Ferguson*. With support from other volunteers from the MRC Centre.1WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease ModellingMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease AnalysisJ-IDEAImperial College

Summary: We present case fatality ratio (CFR) estimates for three strata of 2019-nCoVinfections.

For cases detected in Hubei, we estimate the CFR to be 18% (95% credible interval:11%-81%). For cases detected in travellers outside mainland China, we obtain central estimates of the CFR in the range 1.2-5.6% depending on the statistical methods, with substantial uncertainty around these central values.

Using estimates of underlying infection prevalence in Wuhan at the end of January derived from testing of passengers on repatriation flights to Japan and Germany, we adjusted the estimates of CFR from either the early epidemicin Hubei Province,or from cases reportedoutside mainland China,to obtain estimates of the overall CFR in all infections (asymptomatic or symptomatic) of approximately 1% (95% confidence interval 0.5%-4%). It is important to note that the differences inthese estimates does not reflect underlying differences in disease severity between countries.

CFRs seen in individual countries will vary depending on the sensitivity of different surveillance systems to detect cases of differing levels ofseverity and the clinical care offered to severely ill cases. All CFR estimates should be viewed cautiously at the current time as the sensitivity of surveillance of both deaths and cases in mainland China is unclear. Furthermore, all estimates rely on limited data on the typical time intervalsfrom symptom onset to deathor recovery which influences the CFR estimates.

 

[coalcracker]

ABC Nightly News with David Muir tonight led with the coronavirus and actually raised the level of alarm. At one point, Muir said that today's deaths in China "may just be the tip of the iceberg."

I'm not by any means advocating ABC news, but it can be interesting to see what the mainstream media is saying. Looks like they may be upping the alarm (Do they know that all hell is about to break loose? I guess we shall see).

 

[OldArcher]

BS on that..... he went to another government office, had a few of the staff dress up and then played to the cameras. There is no way he risked exposure to himself the GOD Emperor of China....

Concur, 100%. Until they gasp their last, they think they're immortal...

OA

 

[KFhunter]

Big gaping holes in his mask too, and holes in the "professionals" masks as well

 

[Profit of Doom]

All I can say is if I wasn’t a germaphobe before this (which I was) I definitely am now.

I betcha Howie isn’t eating Chinese.

 

[Hfcomms]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNArvGCBgJ4

20 minutes

Chris Martenson
PhD Pathology

A new report finds that the incubation period for the coronavirus may be as long as 24 days, 10 days longer than previous expected. That means that the potential size of "infected & contagious yet unaware" masses walking around (outside of China's quarantine borders) could be substantially larger than feared. On top of that, additional data from China's hospitals in Wuhan show that once a patient is hospitalized, meaning their condition has become severe, the death rate is very high (~20%). More reinforcement that you want to avoid this virus if at all possible. And yet, the stock market remains unconcerned to the pandemic threat. Another up day, despite a warning from the Council on Foreign on the fragility of the US economy's dependence on Chinese supply chains. Scary stat: 97% of all US antibiotics come from China. Meanwhile, many regions in China are extending their 'return to work' deadlines as efforts to fight the outbreak continue. As we've been saying daily now, at some point, the markets are going to have to acknowledge the large and growing lack of economic production that is not occurring. Get Chris' free report on how the coronavirus is going to cause a painful downdraft in the stock market here: https://www.peakprosperity.com/blackswan

 

[shane]

This is not every ones cup of tea, but for my own sanity amidst 'doom & gloom',
I'll occasionally succumb to some dark humor. Just skip past if easily offended...

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dC5rc8EUs2A
(2.5 min)

Panic Early, Beat the Rush!
- Shane

 

[homecanner1]

They had ankle deep piles of dollar bills at the Superbowl stripper party in Miami. Things to ponder. This "skort club" is a known strip bar in Spain. This is not the year to go on Spring Break and most certainly not the time to hang out with pole dancers, regardless of what the NFL half time show thinks is a constructive use of your time. That goes for the Oscar Party animals in LA last night as well on the prowl till the wee hours cavorting.

I don't go to clubs and stay home and been celibate for years. Not interested in that lifestyle or people who indulge in it. Never been to Vegas and not planning on it anytime soon either.

 

[1911user]

ABC Nightly News with David Muir tonight led with the coronavirus and actually raised the level of alarm. At one point, Muir said that today's deaths in China "may just be the tip of the iceberg."

I'm not by any means advocating ABC news, but it can be interesting to see what the mainstream media is saying. Looks like they may be upping the alarm (Do they know that all hell is about to break loose? I guess we shall see).

I listened to NPR on the radio going to work this morning (my form of oppo research). They had a segment from Thailand where the jist was they didn't want Chinese tourists bringing china flu to their town and they should just stay away.
NPR playing that (xenophobic ) story in prime time told me that the MSM is about to start talking about this and the time for final obvious preps is closing quickly.

 

[joannita]

ABC Nightly News with David Muir tonight led with the coronavirus and actually raised the level of alarm. At one point, Muir said that today's deaths in China "may just be the tip of the iceberg."

I'm not by any means advocating ABC news, but it can be interesting to see what the mainstream media is saying. Looks like they may be upping the alarm (Do they know that all hell is about to break loose? I guess we shall see).

This morning Fox news said "dozens of new victims on the cruise ship". If that is not deceptive reporting, I don't know what is! GRRRR!

 

[Pinecone]

I told you the mode of transportation was hookers.... I am happy to see some has finally acknowledged the fact......

I remember that! And we thought you were kidding.

 

[jward]

I listened to NPR on the radio going to work this morning (my form of oppo research). They had a segment from Thailand where the jist was they didn't want Chinese tourists bringing china flu to their town and they should just stay away.
NPR playing that (xenophobic ) story in prime time told me that the MSM is about to start talking about this and the time for final obvious preps is closing quickly.

given MSM woefully inadequate ability to get anything right, I would take their drum beating as a positive.
...Will be interesting to see how they spin things to be primarily a result of "orange man bad", but I am certain where there's a will, there's a way!

 

[rafter]

Is Beck covering the outbreak very much? If so I may have to start listening to him again.

He did a half hour on it this morning. Lately it has been Ukraine, but I have a feeling as the corona virus continues to pick up he will spend more time on it.

 

[Ragnarok]

I'd say that's part of it, but the extra days were tacked on to make people wary, scared, and malleable while TPTB continue to work the problem.

I saw a report a few pages back that Wuhan was the center for anti-government protests, recently. Supposedly, all of the people who were active in organizing and/or taking part in the protests have been placed under "quarantine"...

 

[TorahTips]

ABC Nightly News with David Muir tonight led with the coronavirus and actually raised the level of alarm. At one point, Muir said that today's deaths in China "may just be the tip of the iceberg."

I'm not by any means advocating ABC news, but it can be interesting to see what the mainstream media is saying. Looks like they may be upping the alarm (Do they know that all hell is about to break loose? I guess we shall see).

NBC nightly news actually showed some of the twitter videos that we've seen here. I think they are beginning to decide that it's time to get the truth out (a little).

 

[marsofold]

For those interested in which shortwave bands are working where you live in real time, go to:

Real-time band conditions

<!-- wp:heading {"level":1,"align":"center"} --> <h1 id="real-time-band-conditions">Real-time band conditions</h1> <!-- /wp:heading -->

qrznow.com

A screen capture of band conditions at 8PM EST. As you can see, not much is working now above 3Mhz on the east coast, which means short distances only.

 

[rafter]

In one of the videos posted on this thread that I watched. They discussed that they might have turned off the scrubbers on the coal fired power plants to try and make the most of their limited supplies since transportation is shut down and no deliveries are being made. This would increase some of the emissions I think, but I am no expert.

From what I have heard you only get sulfur dioxide from burning organic material. That would leave coal out wouldn't it?

 

[1911user]

From what I have heard you only get sulfur dioxide from burning organic material. That would leave coal out wouldn't it?

Sulfur dioxide is the chemical compound with the formula SO2. It is a toxic gas responsible for the smell of burnt matches. It is released naturally by volcanic activity and is produced as a by-product of copper extraction and the burning of fossil fuels contaminated with sulfur compounds.

Sulfur dioxide - Wikipedia

 

[northern watch]

FOX 5 San Diego‏Verified account @fox5sandiego 5m5 minutes ago

#BREAKING: The first case of coronavirus has been confirmed in San Diego County, the CDC confirmed.

 

[Hogwrench]

See new Tweets
Conversation





BNO Newsroom

@BNODesk

NEW: California reports 1 new case of coronavirus in San Diego County, raising U.S. total to 13

 

[shane]

Chaos Brings Opportunity...And Chaos

I went through my E.R.'s supplies this past weekend, and made a list of items that we source from China. The list is esoteric, and very inside-baseball, unless you're in the trade. I sent it, in a memo, up the chain, so that hopefully administration will source alternative vendors for items which may become Chinesium Unobtanium any day now, until further notice, because between 50-500M Chinese are no longer going to work in the toy factories that make the things I use to make sick people well. So forget the item list, but take away this TL;DR note:

Of 54 major items, 43% (23 items) are sourced from, assembled in, or produced in China. That's nearly half of everything we use, 24/7/365, forever.

Many of them might be sourced elsewhere (and I hope to hell we do it before it bites us in the ass); but many cannot be. The lack of some will get you or someone like you killed if I haven't got it.

Multiply that times nearly 5600 U. S. hospitals, and countless clinics and doctor's offices, just for healthcare, nationwide, and you can begin to grasp the magnitude of this problem.

Panic Early, Beat the Rush!
- Shane

 

[Chance]

So are they still going to let all of the quarantined people out after '14 days'...when the incubation period has been raised to 24? I read a week or so ago that the incubation period was 28 days.

 

[northern watch]

BNO Newsroom‏Verified account @BNODesk 2m2 minutes ago

NEW: California reports 1 new case of coronavirus in San Diego County, raising U.S. total to 13

 

[Hogwrench]

According to the source, the individual was aboard the first flight from Wuhan, China to Miramar last Wednesday.
The official says the individual is an adult. It’s unclear whether the patient is a man or a woman.
The individual was taken to the UC San Diego Medical Center for treatment.
The first flight from China landed at Miramar last Wednesday. A second plane arrived at the base later in the week.

First case of coronavirus confirmed in San Diego

The first case of coronavirus in San Diego was confirmed on Monday, with the patient reported to be in good condition at an area hospital.

www.10news.com

 

[Tristan]

I hate to suggest that perhaps there is more than one strain in the wild. The "base" nCoV that causes the pneumonia variant and another that causes the sudden death variant. No Evidence, just thinking out loud.

Unless they're specifically looking for a mutation of that sort, what are the odds they're finding it?

Are they even testing the casualties?

 

[Allotrope]

Here is the most relevant part of a ZeroHedge article Body Count Bull$hit where the WHO figures are predicted long in advance and shown to be falsified.



Here’s the core post in a reddit thread that’s Matterhorn-esque in its truth (and a heck of a lot shorter to read).

[OC] Quadratic Coronavirus Epidemic Growth Model seems like the best fit from r/dataisbeautiful

The point of this quadratic regression on Chinese infection and death numbers as reported by the World Health Organization from the first official announcement through February 4 was the publication of this projection.



Sure enough, the WHO announcements since this prediction was published have been eerily close.
2/5 — 24,363 cases — 491 fatalities
2/6 — 28,060 cases — 564 fatalities
2/7 — 31,211 cases — 637 fatalities
2/8 — 34,598 cases — 723 fatalities
2/9 — 37,251 cases — 812 fatalities
2/10 — 40,171 cases — 908 fatalities

Crazy, right? The deaths being reported out of China are particularly accurate to the model, while the reported cases are leveling off (which is what you’d expect from a politically adjusted epidemic model over time … at some point you have to show a rate-of-change improvement from your epidemic control measures).

But wait, there’s more.

The really damning part of Antimonic’s modeling of the reported data with a quadratic formula is that this should be impossible. This is not how epidemics work.

All epidemics take the form of an exponential function, not a quadratic function.

 

[Roscoe's Daddy]

This question will never be accurately answered, but I'm very curious how China's custodial facilities (prisons & local jails) are doing during this crisis. Ultimately, it is practical a way of lowering in-custody numbers & reducing recidivism.

 

[Texican]

Hopefully some good news- a prophetic word from Hank Kunneman that God is going to have mercy on the U.S. I personally choose to shift to the happier timeline. YMMV.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuIOrjhAC-Y

Listen and be moved.

God is merciful and loves mankind more than we can ever know.

May God bless and protect the world.

Texican....

 

[Chance]

So are they going to let all of the quarantined people out after '14 days'...when the incubation period has been raised to 24?

 

[naegling62]

According to the source, the individual was aboard the first flight from Wuhan, China to Miramar last Wednesday.
The official says the individual is an adult. It’s unclear whether the patient is a man or a woman.
The individual was taken to the UC San Diego Medical Center for treatment.
The first flight from China landed at Miramar last Wednesday. A second plane arrived at the base later in the week.

First case of coronavirus confirmed in San Diego

The first case of coronavirus in San Diego was confirmed on Monday, with the patient reported to be in good condition at an area hospital.

www.10news.com

Ok, so, do they just have the virus or are they sick? Did they get on the plane with or without the virus? Weren't they about to release those folks from quarantine? So if this person is infected, how many others are by now. Wow, this case holds a lot of questions.

 

[northern watch]

BNO Newsroom‏Verified account @BNODesk 5m5 minutes ago

BNO Newsroom Retweeted BNO Newsroom

Chinese media confirms that asymptomatic cases of coronavirus are now excluded from the government's official count. This contradicts WHO guidelines. It's unknown how many asymptomatic cases there are.

 

[Ractivist]

Hopefully some good news- a prophetic word from Hank Kunneman that God is going to have mercy on the U.S. I personally choose to shift to the happier timeline. YMMV.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuIOrjhAC-Y

I'd pray that he was a Prophet. And I can't disagree with the words spoken..... but the atire, his cuffs, striped shirt, everything about his clothing is suspect. The Prophet Hank does not resonate well either. But, hey, I pray he is.

 

[northern watch]

The Daily NK‏ @The_Daily_NK 17h17 hours ago

A source in Pyongyang reported today that a resident of the city died of a coronavirus infection on Jan. 27. The source also said that 18 people are currently under quarantine at Pyongyang's No. 3 People's Hospital.https://www.dailynk.com/english/north-korean-woman-died-coronavirus-infection-late-january/ … #DPRK #Northkorea #Wuhancoronavirus