H5N1 human deaths in China - this may be it folks
- Thread starter CanadaSue
- Start date
Jesse
Membership Revoked
G'morning!
I'm assuming most people here are already living where they expect to be living for the forseeable future, short of a SUDDEN TEOTWAWKI situation (nuclear or like that), where a few *may* be able to make it to a bug out location. So, it's most likely shelter-in-place for most of us.
I live in a *really* remote area, also a "poor" area by anybody's standards, so we don't have many people in these mountains taking plane trips too often. I don't know of any residents who do, so that leaves only the few visitors here to bring us the various flu strains. I've lived here for about five years now, and have had the flu twice. The last one was a doozy and I'm pretty much housebound as well so have no idea how I got it - unless DH is/was a carrier who just didn't get the full blown symptoms. So much for geographic "safe areas" and isolation - though that isn't the reason we moved here. (Bruce Beach once told me that if he could move anywhere he wanted, he'd move to where I am now.
)
I agree with Just Wondering that the best thing anyone *anywhere* can do is build up your immune system, eat and rest sensibly, have the best supplements to suit your biochemistry and risks involved and most of all, best of all - pray.
We don't have many masks and probably won't buy any more since there's just the two of us now (DH and myself). If one of us gets sick, the other likely will too, so there doesn't seem to be much point in that. We *do* have supplements, bleach, gloves, garbage bags, and all the necessary prevention and care things we can reasonably afford.
Thing is, ALL of our children, grandchildren and other relatives live in cities, are not prepped and aren't planning on getting prepped. Only one daughter (starting university in Sept.) is a GI and even she can't be trusted to take proper care of herself when out of my sight, even though she *does* understand the risks, has read all about the black death and watched movies about it; lived with SARS on our doorstep; etc., etc. I send her off with a box of what she should take daily to summer camp every year, and she returns home with it. And this is the kid who GETS IT. She says she wants to *live* until she dies and is tired of hearing about all the things that could potentially kill her.
I find the prospect of my kids getting sick and perhaps even dying (BTDT) where I can't even get to them, far more depressing than the thought of my own health being threatened. I know there has to be a lot of you in the same position as we are, with grown-up children and grandchildren living far away from "home." How do you all feel about that?
I'm inclined to take the same view as our daughter who "get's it." Having reasonably prepared to survive, but realistically knowing that doesn't guarantee us anything anyway, I too am tired of hearing about all the things that can "potentially kill me" and my kids. I too just want to live life and be of as much use to others as I can be, until I can't anymore.
Am I alone in this?
Shabbat shalom - Jesse.
I'm assuming most people here are already living where they expect to be living for the forseeable future, short of a SUDDEN TEOTWAWKI situation (nuclear or like that), where a few *may* be able to make it to a bug out location. So, it's most likely shelter-in-place for most of us.
I live in a *really* remote area, also a "poor" area by anybody's standards, so we don't have many people in these mountains taking plane trips too often. I don't know of any residents who do, so that leaves only the few visitors here to bring us the various flu strains. I've lived here for about five years now, and have had the flu twice. The last one was a doozy and I'm pretty much housebound as well so have no idea how I got it - unless DH is/was a carrier who just didn't get the full blown symptoms. So much for geographic "safe areas" and isolation - though that isn't the reason we moved here. (Bruce Beach once told me that if he could move anywhere he wanted, he'd move to where I am now.
)I agree with Just Wondering that the best thing anyone *anywhere* can do is build up your immune system, eat and rest sensibly, have the best supplements to suit your biochemistry and risks involved and most of all, best of all - pray.
We don't have many masks and probably won't buy any more since there's just the two of us now (DH and myself). If one of us gets sick, the other likely will too, so there doesn't seem to be much point in that. We *do* have supplements, bleach, gloves, garbage bags, and all the necessary prevention and care things we can reasonably afford.
Thing is, ALL of our children, grandchildren and other relatives live in cities, are not prepped and aren't planning on getting prepped. Only one daughter (starting university in Sept.) is a GI and even she can't be trusted to take proper care of herself when out of my sight, even though she *does* understand the risks, has read all about the black death and watched movies about it; lived with SARS on our doorstep; etc., etc. I send her off with a box of what she should take daily to summer camp every year, and she returns home with it. And this is the kid who GETS IT. She says she wants to *live* until she dies and is tired of hearing about all the things that could potentially kill her.
I find the prospect of my kids getting sick and perhaps even dying (BTDT) where I can't even get to them, far more depressing than the thought of my own health being threatened. I know there has to be a lot of you in the same position as we are, with grown-up children and grandchildren living far away from "home." How do you all feel about that?
I'm inclined to take the same view as our daughter who "get's it." Having reasonably prepared to survive, but realistically knowing that doesn't guarantee us anything anyway, I too am tired of hearing about all the things that can "potentially kill me" and my kids. I too just want to live life and be of as much use to others as I can be, until I can't anymore.
Am I alone in this?
Shabbat shalom - Jesse.
HHS Orders Avian Flu Vaccine Doses As Preventive Measure, USA
Source : Moneyplans.net Archives
HHS Secretary Tommy G Thompson announced today the awarding of a contract to Aventis Pasteur Inc. to manufacture and store 2 million doses of avian influenza H5N1 vaccine, an important initial acquisition to better prepare the nation for an influenza pandemic.
The vaccine that is being made is designed to match the H5N1 influenza virus that has killed 29 people in Thailand and Vietnam this year. If a pandemic of avian influenza virus H5N1 occurred in humans, the new vaccine would be used to protect laboratory workers, public health personnel, and, if needed, the general public.
"This is an important first step toward preparing our nation to respond to a pandemic influenza outbreak," Secretary Thompson said. "The reemergence of the avian flu in Asia this year is another sign that we have to develop and produce vaccines against the threat of a pandemic flu. The United States is the first nation to undertake this preventive measure on this scale."
The amount of the contract is nearly $13 million. The purchase of the new vaccine follows Secretary Thompson's announcement last month of the National Pandemic Influenza Response and Preparedness Plan, which outlines a coordinated national strategy to prepare for and respond to an influenza pandemic. The draft plan can be found online at http://www.hhs.gov/nvpo/pandemicplan and is a result of years of work by the department.
Influenza is a serious disease that causes significant death and disability in the United States every year. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), more than 200,000 cases of influenza require hospitalization and as many as 36,000 people die from influenza or its complications annually.
Influenza pandemics are explosive global events in which most, if not all, persons worldwide are at risk for infection and illness. While rare, the appearance of such a pandemic virus will likely be unaffected by currently available influenza vaccines that are modified each year to match the strains of the virus that are known to be in circulation among humans around the world. Unlike the gradual changes that occur in the influenza viruses that appear each year during flu season, a pandemic influenza virus is one that represents a major, sudden shift in the virus' structure that increases its ability to cause illness in a large proportion of the population. During previous influenza pandemics large numbers of people were ill, sought medical care, were hospitalized and died.
Three influenza pandemics occurred during the 20th century. The most recent influenza pandemic occurred in 1968 with the Hong Kong Flu outbreak, which resulted in nearly 34,000 deaths in the United States. In 1957, the Asian flu pandemic resulted in about 70,000 deaths. The most deadly influenza pandemic outbreak was the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, which caused illness in roughly 20 to 40 percent of the world's population and more than 50 million deaths worldwide. Between September 1918 and April 1919, approximately 675,000 deaths from the Spanish flu occurred in the United States alone.
Planning and implementing preparedness activities are critical to improving the effectiveness of a response and decreasing the impacts of a pandemic. HHS has increased support for pandemic influenza activities and is engaged in several efforts to enhance the nation's preparedness for such an outbreak.
HHS supports pandemic influenza activities in areas such as surveillance, vaccine development and production, antiviral stockpiling, research, and public health preparedness. This contract is administered jointly by HHS' National Vaccine Program Office, Office of Public Health Emergency Preparedness, and CDC
http://archives.moneyplans.net/frontend203-verify-8686.html
Source : Moneyplans.net Archives
HHS Secretary Tommy G Thompson announced today the awarding of a contract to Aventis Pasteur Inc. to manufacture and store 2 million doses of avian influenza H5N1 vaccine, an important initial acquisition to better prepare the nation for an influenza pandemic.
The vaccine that is being made is designed to match the H5N1 influenza virus that has killed 29 people in Thailand and Vietnam this year. If a pandemic of avian influenza virus H5N1 occurred in humans, the new vaccine would be used to protect laboratory workers, public health personnel, and, if needed, the general public.
"This is an important first step toward preparing our nation to respond to a pandemic influenza outbreak," Secretary Thompson said. "The reemergence of the avian flu in Asia this year is another sign that we have to develop and produce vaccines against the threat of a pandemic flu. The United States is the first nation to undertake this preventive measure on this scale."
The amount of the contract is nearly $13 million. The purchase of the new vaccine follows Secretary Thompson's announcement last month of the National Pandemic Influenza Response and Preparedness Plan, which outlines a coordinated national strategy to prepare for and respond to an influenza pandemic. The draft plan can be found online at http://www.hhs.gov/nvpo/pandemicplan and is a result of years of work by the department.
Influenza is a serious disease that causes significant death and disability in the United States every year. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), more than 200,000 cases of influenza require hospitalization and as many as 36,000 people die from influenza or its complications annually.
Influenza pandemics are explosive global events in which most, if not all, persons worldwide are at risk for infection and illness. While rare, the appearance of such a pandemic virus will likely be unaffected by currently available influenza vaccines that are modified each year to match the strains of the virus that are known to be in circulation among humans around the world. Unlike the gradual changes that occur in the influenza viruses that appear each year during flu season, a pandemic influenza virus is one that represents a major, sudden shift in the virus' structure that increases its ability to cause illness in a large proportion of the population. During previous influenza pandemics large numbers of people were ill, sought medical care, were hospitalized and died.
Three influenza pandemics occurred during the 20th century. The most recent influenza pandemic occurred in 1968 with the Hong Kong Flu outbreak, which resulted in nearly 34,000 deaths in the United States. In 1957, the Asian flu pandemic resulted in about 70,000 deaths. The most deadly influenza pandemic outbreak was the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, which caused illness in roughly 20 to 40 percent of the world's population and more than 50 million deaths worldwide. Between September 1918 and April 1919, approximately 675,000 deaths from the Spanish flu occurred in the United States alone.
Planning and implementing preparedness activities are critical to improving the effectiveness of a response and decreasing the impacts of a pandemic. HHS has increased support for pandemic influenza activities and is engaged in several efforts to enhance the nation's preparedness for such an outbreak.
HHS supports pandemic influenza activities in areas such as surveillance, vaccine development and production, antiviral stockpiling, research, and public health preparedness. This contract is administered jointly by HHS' National Vaccine Program Office, Office of Public Health Emergency Preparedness, and CDC
http://archives.moneyplans.net/frontend203-verify-8686.html
Kim99
Veteran Member
2 things I noticed right away- I believe there have been more than 29 deaths, and 2 million doses is a drop in the bucket. I've heard it takes 6 months to create a vaccine, therefore the flu could be here before even the 2 million doses are ready. Maybe not, it just depends on if the news out of China(before the blackout)is true. If so, most of us are on our own.
Jesse said:G'morning!
I'm assuming most people here are already living where they expect to be living for the forseeable future, short of a SUDDEN TEOTWAWKI situation (nuclear or like that), where a few *may* be able to make it to a bug out location. So, it's most likely shelter-in-place for most of us.
I live in a *really* remote area, also a "poor" area by anybody's standards, so we don't have many people in these mountains taking plane trips too often. I don't know of any residents who do, so that leaves only the few visitors here to bring us the various flu strains. I've lived here for about five years now, and have had the flu twice. The last one was a doozy and I'm pretty much housebound as well so have no idea how I got it - unless DH is/was a carrier who just didn't get the full blown symptoms. So much for geographic "safe areas" and isolation - though that isn't the reason we moved here. (Bruce Beach once told me that if he could move anywhere he wanted, he'd move to where I am now.
I agree with Just Wondering that the best thing anyone *anywhere* can do is build up your immune system, eat and rest sensibly, have the best supplements to suit your biochemistry and risks involved and most of all, best of all - pray.
We don't have many masks and probably won't buy any more since there's just the two of us now (DH and myself). If one of us gets sick, the other likely will too, so there doesn't seem to be much point in that. We *do* have supplements, bleach, gloves, garbage bags, and all the necessary prevention and care things we can reasonably afford.
Thing is, ALL of our children, grandchildren and other relatives live in cities, are not prepped and aren't planning on getting prepped. Only one daughter (starting university in Sept.) is a GI and even she can't be trusted to take proper care of herself when out of my sight, even though she *does* understand the risks, has read all about the black death and watched movies about it; lived with SARS on our doorstep; etc., etc. I send her off with a box of what she should take daily to summer camp every year, and she returns home with it. And this is the kid who GETS IT. She says she wants to *live* until she dies and is tired of hearing about all the things that could potentially kill her.
I find the prospect of my kids getting sick and perhaps even dying (BTDT) where I can't even get to them, far more depressing than the thought of my own health being threatened. I know there has to be a lot of you in the same position as we are, with grown-up children and grandchildren living far away from "home." How do you all feel about that?
I'm inclined to take the same view as our daughter who "get's it." Having reasonably prepared to survive, but realistically knowing that doesn't guarantee us anything anyway, I too am tired of hearing about all the things that can "potentially kill me" and my kids. I too just want to live life and be of as much use to others as I can be, until I can't anymore.
Am I alone in this?
Shabbat shalom - Jesse.
Jesse, As far as the children go, I'm just as worried. My son (only child) is 20, in college, and--praise God--still living at home. I keep feeling like something's coming, and at any moment, quicker than a wink, we could be locked down in our homes. If "it" happens in the next few years, then my son will be fine. I keep feeling that there will come a time after TEOTWAWKI when we will be starting from scratch, and Lord help me, I want my son to be part of it.
As far as worrying goes, I feel as you do. We'll prepare the best as we can, and then relax. It's in God's hands then. Of course, how well we listen to what He is leading us to do figures into the outcome, as well.
Seabird
Slight thread drift, but this indicates what would happen if a major epidemic got started...
Posted on Sat, Jun. 04, 2005
New flu case is a setback for ASH
Patient lockdowns and staff overtime during the recent flu epidemic are taking a toll
By Raven J. Railey
The Tribune
Hoping to end extreme measures that have been taken to contain an off-season flu epidemic at Atascadero State Hospital, officials instead were disappointed when another patient came down with influenza Friday.
"At this time, there have been 106 cases of patients," said hospital public information officer Barrie Hafler. Meanwhile, the outbreak "has really created a backlog in terms of court cases, nonemergency medical appointments in the community, the admission of new patients."
The stress of working locked-down units and covering shifts for sick co-workers has also placed an extra burden on many of the hospital's 2,100 employees, according to one staff member.
It's the first time in at least 10 years the hospital has experienced a flu outbreak, Hafler said.
But she is optimistic that efforts to contain the viral infection have been largely successful and the epidemic is near an end.
The hospital houses 1,312 sexually violent predators -- men committed to the mental health system after serving prison terms for multiple violent sexual crimes -- and criminals or criminal suspects declared mentally incompetent, legally insane or mentally disordered.
Before Friday, there had not been any new cases of the disease at the hospital since May 28. After seven days with no new outbreak, Hafler said, the hospital can declare the epidemic over. If not for the new case, that milestone would have been met Friday.
Hospital staff will consult with communicable disease experts from the state Department of Health Services on Monday. They had hoped the meeting would allow them to end the measures they've been taking to control the spread of influenza, but now, Hafler said, "that's up in the air."
One of the key questions, she said, is when the hospital will be able to resume serving meals in a centralized dining hall. ASH continues to serve all meals -- about 3,900 of them a day -- to patients in their units.
"That's a tremendous undertaking for the staff on a sustained basis," Hafler said. "Because of the volume of meals, we can't just switch back to centralized dining quickly."
Because staff members are treated privately, the hospital could not say how many had contracted the disease. Hafler also did not have information about whether absenteeism had increased because of the flu.
But one psychiatric technician, speaking on condition of anonymity out of fear of reprimand or dismissal, said mandatory overtime had increased for a staff already stretched thin by staffing shortages. Whereas a technician used to be required to do mandatory overtime once or twice a year, it's increased to about once every two weeks.
"A lot of people got the influenza and are missing work," the technician said. "A battle with staffing is consistent. This didn't help things at all. Morale is, to my opinion, at an all-time low."
Patients also tend to act out more when 35 to 50 of them are cooped up in the closed units, the technician said. "Their mental illness symptoms seem to flare up more."
Other measures ASH has taken since the first case of influenza was confirmed May 5 include:
• Locking down as many as 12 of the hospital's 34 units at a time. Only one unit is locked down now.
• Discontinuing patient transfers to and from the facility, including to the courthouse for hearings.
• Suspending group worship services and closing the library.
The hospital also continues to offer flu vaccines and prescriptions of rimantadine, a prophylactic medication that reduces the extent and length of symptoms, on a voluntary basis to patients and employees. But these measures were not as successful as hoped, Hafler said. Only about 500 employees and 160 patients were vaccinated, while the prescriptions went to 377 patients and 478 staff members.
The hospital has been successful in keeping the virus from spreading to the community at large, said Janelle Gorman, communicable disease program manager for the county's Public Health Department.
"We're not seeing a huge outbreak in the community," she said. "What you want to look at in any outbreak setting is controlling the mode of transmission."
Gorman said it's not unusual in a segregated population where people are housed in close quarters to see a rapid spread of disease. Hafler said similar outbreaks are occurring in three other institutions in the state but could not offer more specifics.
At ASH, it is more common to see outbreaks of chicken pox and measles, Hafler said. Officials do not know how the outbreak began.
"The important part is that we're taking these precautions," she said, "and -- knock on wood -- they seem to have been effective."
http://www.sanluisobispo.com/mld/sanluisobispo/news/local/11815682.htm
Posted on Sat, Jun. 04, 2005
New flu case is a setback for ASH
Patient lockdowns and staff overtime during the recent flu epidemic are taking a toll
By Raven J. Railey
The Tribune
Hoping to end extreme measures that have been taken to contain an off-season flu epidemic at Atascadero State Hospital, officials instead were disappointed when another patient came down with influenza Friday.
"At this time, there have been 106 cases of patients," said hospital public information officer Barrie Hafler. Meanwhile, the outbreak "has really created a backlog in terms of court cases, nonemergency medical appointments in the community, the admission of new patients."
The stress of working locked-down units and covering shifts for sick co-workers has also placed an extra burden on many of the hospital's 2,100 employees, according to one staff member.
It's the first time in at least 10 years the hospital has experienced a flu outbreak, Hafler said.
But she is optimistic that efforts to contain the viral infection have been largely successful and the epidemic is near an end.
The hospital houses 1,312 sexually violent predators -- men committed to the mental health system after serving prison terms for multiple violent sexual crimes -- and criminals or criminal suspects declared mentally incompetent, legally insane or mentally disordered.
Before Friday, there had not been any new cases of the disease at the hospital since May 28. After seven days with no new outbreak, Hafler said, the hospital can declare the epidemic over. If not for the new case, that milestone would have been met Friday.
Hospital staff will consult with communicable disease experts from the state Department of Health Services on Monday. They had hoped the meeting would allow them to end the measures they've been taking to control the spread of influenza, but now, Hafler said, "that's up in the air."
One of the key questions, she said, is when the hospital will be able to resume serving meals in a centralized dining hall. ASH continues to serve all meals -- about 3,900 of them a day -- to patients in their units.
"That's a tremendous undertaking for the staff on a sustained basis," Hafler said. "Because of the volume of meals, we can't just switch back to centralized dining quickly."
Because staff members are treated privately, the hospital could not say how many had contracted the disease. Hafler also did not have information about whether absenteeism had increased because of the flu.
But one psychiatric technician, speaking on condition of anonymity out of fear of reprimand or dismissal, said mandatory overtime had increased for a staff already stretched thin by staffing shortages. Whereas a technician used to be required to do mandatory overtime once or twice a year, it's increased to about once every two weeks.
"A lot of people got the influenza and are missing work," the technician said. "A battle with staffing is consistent. This didn't help things at all. Morale is, to my opinion, at an all-time low."
Patients also tend to act out more when 35 to 50 of them are cooped up in the closed units, the technician said. "Their mental illness symptoms seem to flare up more."
Other measures ASH has taken since the first case of influenza was confirmed May 5 include:
• Locking down as many as 12 of the hospital's 34 units at a time. Only one unit is locked down now.
• Discontinuing patient transfers to and from the facility, including to the courthouse for hearings.
• Suspending group worship services and closing the library.
The hospital also continues to offer flu vaccines and prescriptions of rimantadine, a prophylactic medication that reduces the extent and length of symptoms, on a voluntary basis to patients and employees. But these measures were not as successful as hoped, Hafler said. Only about 500 employees and 160 patients were vaccinated, while the prescriptions went to 377 patients and 478 staff members.
The hospital has been successful in keeping the virus from spreading to the community at large, said Janelle Gorman, communicable disease program manager for the county's Public Health Department.
"We're not seeing a huge outbreak in the community," she said. "What you want to look at in any outbreak setting is controlling the mode of transmission."
Gorman said it's not unusual in a segregated population where people are housed in close quarters to see a rapid spread of disease. Hafler said similar outbreaks are occurring in three other institutions in the state but could not offer more specifics.
At ASH, it is more common to see outbreaks of chicken pox and measles, Hafler said. Officials do not know how the outbreak began.
"The important part is that we're taking these precautions," she said, "and -- knock on wood -- they seem to have been effective."
http://www.sanluisobispo.com/mld/sanluisobispo/news/local/11815682.htm
Jesse
Membership Revoked
G'morning Seabird!
Thanks for the moral support.
I will keep you and yours in my prayers, indeed as I do everyone here.
Y2kmisfit: I thought about the mail, having lived through the terrorist bombings (courtesy of the IRA) in London, England, when I was seventeen and working on New Bond Street above the Irish National Bank. (I don't remember the exact name of the bank, but our offices were on the second floor, just above it.) We were evacuated twice due to letter-bomb scares there. Once there was a real bomb found and the other time there wasn't. The one that *was* found was directly underneath the office I shared with two other people. That got my attention.
We do get mail here, twice a week in fact. No newspapers or anything like that though. Best method of sterilizing mail without destroying it? Steaming?
Jesse.
Thanks for the moral support.
I will keep you and yours in my prayers, indeed as I do everyone here.Y2kmisfit: I thought about the mail, having lived through the terrorist bombings (courtesy of the IRA) in London, England, when I was seventeen and working on New Bond Street above the Irish National Bank. (I don't remember the exact name of the bank, but our offices were on the second floor, just above it.) We were evacuated twice due to letter-bomb scares there. Once there was a real bomb found and the other time there wasn't. The one that *was* found was directly underneath the office I shared with two other people. That got my attention.
We do get mail here, twice a week in fact. No newspapers or anything like that though. Best method of sterilizing mail without destroying it? Steaming?
Jesse.
Commentary
.
Eight Arrests Increase Alarm Over Bird Flu Deaths in China
Recombinomics Commentary
June 5, 2005
>> On June 5, 2005, Chengdu retransmits Xining to retransmit the news, when carries on the epidemic situation news verifies, participates in nine young center eight people which the Qinghai birds and beasts flu information disclosed already to be arrested:
Pakistan uneven Soinam 26 year old of Xining Ji in June 4 day and night are arrested in Xining (abundant news boxun.com)
Wang Daiqi 31 year old of Xining Ji in June 4 day and night are arrested in Xining
South the rope prosperously reaches 29 year old of Lhasa Ji on June 3 in the small north lake to be arrested
Wears South of Tibet 26 year old of Chengdu Ji on June 3 in the small north lake to be arrested
The cloth and the forest 30 years old make to breathe out Ji on June 3 to be arrested in Gill Meng
Day Qinghai 28 year old of Lanzhou Ji on June 4 is arrested in Gangcha County
White horse with a black mane Dan river 33 year old of 乌兰 county Ji on June 4 is arrested in Gangcha County
Sun Chengjie 31 year old of Golmud Ji on June 3 blue is arrested in 伊克 the storehouse <<
The above detail on the eight arrests indicates that they are eight of the nine who have been reporting on H5N1 in Qinghai. All of the arrests are shortly after the release of the May 27 photos showing 1000's of dead or dying birds on Bird Island.
The two pictures include a long shot with no birds flying, and a closer shot with birds sitting. Very few birds are standing and many of the non-standing birds may already be dead.
The pictures suggest that the list detailing the deaths of over 8000 waterfowl may be low. H5N1 rarely kills waterfowl, so the massive die-off in and around Qinghai Lake is unprecedented.
The arrest of those providing information is cause for concern. China has issued blanket denials and provided little detail on reported human cases. Even for the bird cases, where H5N1 has been isolated and sequenced, only general information indicating the sequences are different than H5N1 in Southeast Asia has been released.
The deaths of over 1000 water birds infected with H5N1 have been acknowledged. The 1000 deaths are cause for concern, and require an investigations. China's arrest of those providing independent information increases the alarm level.
Only an investigation by third parties will end the speculation on the massive bird die-off and potential spread to humans.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06050502/H5N1_Qinghai_Arrests_Alarm.html
.
Eight Arrests Increase Alarm Over Bird Flu Deaths in China
Recombinomics Commentary
June 5, 2005
>> On June 5, 2005, Chengdu retransmits Xining to retransmit the news, when carries on the epidemic situation news verifies, participates in nine young center eight people which the Qinghai birds and beasts flu information disclosed already to be arrested:
Pakistan uneven Soinam 26 year old of Xining Ji in June 4 day and night are arrested in Xining (abundant news boxun.com)
Wang Daiqi 31 year old of Xining Ji in June 4 day and night are arrested in Xining
South the rope prosperously reaches 29 year old of Lhasa Ji on June 3 in the small north lake to be arrested
Wears South of Tibet 26 year old of Chengdu Ji on June 3 in the small north lake to be arrested
The cloth and the forest 30 years old make to breathe out Ji on June 3 to be arrested in Gill Meng
Day Qinghai 28 year old of Lanzhou Ji on June 4 is arrested in Gangcha County
White horse with a black mane Dan river 33 year old of 乌兰 county Ji on June 4 is arrested in Gangcha County
Sun Chengjie 31 year old of Golmud Ji on June 3 blue is arrested in 伊克 the storehouse <<
The above detail on the eight arrests indicates that they are eight of the nine who have been reporting on H5N1 in Qinghai. All of the arrests are shortly after the release of the May 27 photos showing 1000's of dead or dying birds on Bird Island.
The two pictures include a long shot with no birds flying, and a closer shot with birds sitting. Very few birds are standing and many of the non-standing birds may already be dead.
The pictures suggest that the list detailing the deaths of over 8000 waterfowl may be low. H5N1 rarely kills waterfowl, so the massive die-off in and around Qinghai Lake is unprecedented.
The arrest of those providing information is cause for concern. China has issued blanket denials and provided little detail on reported human cases. Even for the bird cases, where H5N1 has been isolated and sequenced, only general information indicating the sequences are different than H5N1 in Southeast Asia has been released.
The deaths of over 1000 water birds infected with H5N1 have been acknowledged. The 1000 deaths are cause for concern, and require an investigations. China's arrest of those providing independent information increases the alarm level.
Only an investigation by third parties will end the speculation on the massive bird die-off and potential spread to humans.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06050502/H5N1_Qinghai_Arrests_Alarm.html
Jesse said:
Just my opinion, but I would wear gloves, sort through it outside and toss those you know are junk. Don't bring them into the house. Those you need, wipe off the outside envelope with bleach solution to kill any virus from the mailman.
Then open them, again do it outside. If you can, leave them outside in the sun for a few hours(?).
If you need to make out bills, or what ever, do it inside (after disposing of the gloves and washing your hands), then put on fresh gloves and go outside to put the check, statement into the return envelope, put on the stamp, and back into the mailbox. This leaves the whole mess outside.
When you're opening them, maybe keep the wind to your back.
I'm sure this sounds overly paranoid, but that's because I am.
As an aside to the mail issue, does anyone here know if mail such as credit card statements, bank statements, utility bills are handled by human hands before being enclosed in the envelopes and mailed out?
The biggest chance of a flu virus transmitted with the mail may be from the mailman.
Also if you have standard monthly bills like telephone, cable, etc. then if the flu is around, go ahead and send in enough to pay 2 or 3 months ahead.
You will still get statements showing a credit, but you wont have to send in checks or handle them much.
The biggest chance of a flu virus transmitted with the mail may be from the mailman.
Also if you have standard monthly bills like telephone, cable, etc. then if the flu is around, go ahead and send in enough to pay 2 or 3 months ahead.
You will still get statements showing a credit, but you wont have to send in checks or handle them much.
DEATH BY THE WINGS
Gwynne Dyer
The long-term solution is to invest billions of dollars and a huge amount of political capital in persuad ing peasant families throughout China and south-east Asia to change the way they raise their poultry. The urgent short-term task is to develop a mass-producing influenza vaccine far faster than is now possible. It’s urgent because “the world is in the gravest possible danger of a global pandemic,” as Shigeru Omi, Western Pacific regional director of the WHO, told an emergency conference on avian flu in Vietnam two months ago.
The virus first crossed into human beings in 1997, but it has clearly been mutating in ways that make it more capable of moving from birds to people. The spate of human infections in mid-2003 in China and south-east Asia was so serious that over 100 million domestic birds were killed or died before it subsided in early 2004, but there was only a few months’ respite before bird-to-human transmission began again.
The virus has now appeared in wild birds who can carry it far beyond its original reservoir in domestic chickens, China closed all its nature parks after 178 migratory geese were found dead from the virus in Qinghai province. The most recent outbreak has so far killed 53 people in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia. More ominously, the first case of human-to-human transmission was recorded last September in Vietnam.
Real danger
The danger of a global flu pandemic that could be as bad as or worse than the Spanish influenza outbreak of 1918-19 comes from the fact that a strain of influenza virus that normally affects only birds can swap genes with a strain that is highly infectious between human beings. If people with the human type of influenza should also be infected with the avian type, the gene swap can easily occur and direct human-to-human transmission becomes possible. At that point, given current patterns of international travel, the world might be weeks away from a global pandemic.
The virus is resistant to most anti-viral drugs, and in the avian form, it has been getting stronger. Early outbreaks killed around 10 per cent of poultry flocks; more recent ones have been killing up to 90 percent. In people who have caught avian flu, the death rate has been horrendous: 50 to 75 per cent of those infected. To make matters worse, this version of flu has a long incubation period. Unlike the SARS virus, it may be very hard to stop before it spreads to the population.
Tough ask
If infections start to spread, there could be not only huge loss of life, but economic chaos as air travel is shut down, borders are closed, and essential services break down because too many of their workers are off sick or just hiding from the flu at home.
Governments are arming themselves to deal with this pandemic. President Bush added “influenza caused by novel or reemergent influenza viruses that are causing, or have the potential to cause, a pandemic” to the list of diseases for which a quarantine can be declared. But there is no vaccine. As things stand now, none could be available for months. That is why five teams of scientists urged a permanent global task force to react quickly to outbreaks of bird flu.
The first opportunity to create such a task force will be at the G-8 summit next month, and its first priority must be to develop new and easily-produced vaccines to deal with the outbreak. But lasting progress, as Samuel Jutzi of the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization said at Vietnam , depends on “addressing the transmission of the virus where it occurs, in poultry...chickens and wetland-dwelling ducks.” A hundred million Asian peasants have to be persuaded to stop living in the same space as their poultry. A tall order, but a necessary one.
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1050606/asp/opinion/story_4822452.asp
Gwynne Dyer
The long-term solution is to invest billions of dollars and a huge amount of political capital in persuad ing peasant families throughout China and south-east Asia to change the way they raise their poultry. The urgent short-term task is to develop a mass-producing influenza vaccine far faster than is now possible. It’s urgent because “the world is in the gravest possible danger of a global pandemic,” as Shigeru Omi, Western Pacific regional director of the WHO, told an emergency conference on avian flu in Vietnam two months ago.
The virus first crossed into human beings in 1997, but it has clearly been mutating in ways that make it more capable of moving from birds to people. The spate of human infections in mid-2003 in China and south-east Asia was so serious that over 100 million domestic birds were killed or died before it subsided in early 2004, but there was only a few months’ respite before bird-to-human transmission began again.
The virus has now appeared in wild birds who can carry it far beyond its original reservoir in domestic chickens, China closed all its nature parks after 178 migratory geese were found dead from the virus in Qinghai province. The most recent outbreak has so far killed 53 people in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia. More ominously, the first case of human-to-human transmission was recorded last September in Vietnam.
Real danger
The danger of a global flu pandemic that could be as bad as or worse than the Spanish influenza outbreak of 1918-19 comes from the fact that a strain of influenza virus that normally affects only birds can swap genes with a strain that is highly infectious between human beings. If people with the human type of influenza should also be infected with the avian type, the gene swap can easily occur and direct human-to-human transmission becomes possible. At that point, given current patterns of international travel, the world might be weeks away from a global pandemic.
The virus is resistant to most anti-viral drugs, and in the avian form, it has been getting stronger. Early outbreaks killed around 10 per cent of poultry flocks; more recent ones have been killing up to 90 percent. In people who have caught avian flu, the death rate has been horrendous: 50 to 75 per cent of those infected. To make matters worse, this version of flu has a long incubation period. Unlike the SARS virus, it may be very hard to stop before it spreads to the population.
Tough ask
If infections start to spread, there could be not only huge loss of life, but economic chaos as air travel is shut down, borders are closed, and essential services break down because too many of their workers are off sick or just hiding from the flu at home.
Governments are arming themselves to deal with this pandemic. President Bush added “influenza caused by novel or reemergent influenza viruses that are causing, or have the potential to cause, a pandemic” to the list of diseases for which a quarantine can be declared. But there is no vaccine. As things stand now, none could be available for months. That is why five teams of scientists urged a permanent global task force to react quickly to outbreaks of bird flu.
The first opportunity to create such a task force will be at the G-8 summit next month, and its first priority must be to develop new and easily-produced vaccines to deal with the outbreak. But lasting progress, as Samuel Jutzi of the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization said at Vietnam , depends on “addressing the transmission of the virus where it occurs, in poultry...chickens and wetland-dwelling ducks.” A hundred million Asian peasants have to be persuaded to stop living in the same space as their poultry. A tall order, but a necessary one.
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1050606/asp/opinion/story_4822452.asp
Anchorage to gain new station for traveler quarantine
City to gain new station for traveler quarantine
DISEASE: Anchorage's proximity to outbreaks in Asia is behind CDC center.
By ANN POTEMPA
Anchorage Daily News
Published: June 6th, 2005
Last Modified: June 6th, 2005 at 02:34 AM
Large numbers of international flights arriving in Anchorage -- about 30 passenger and 500 cargo flights weekly -- have prompted the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to open a new quarantine station here to screen travelers for infectious diseases, including SARS and pandemic avian flu.
"We try to select those airports that provided us the largest percentage of the arriving international traffic," said Marty Remis, deputy branch chief with the CDC's Quarantine and Border Health Services branch. "And Anchorage fell into that group."
Federal health officials know Anchorage is only a flight away from countries with infectious outbreaks. Two years ago, they met incoming flights from Asia looking for SARS. Now a quarantine station will open in July.
"Federal officials will be able to act fast," said Dr. Richard Mandsager, Alaska's public health director. "We won't be scrambling to get people here quickly."
Most quarantine stations nationwide are in airports, and CDC officials hope to open the Anchorage site there. The airport used to house a station that closed about two decades ago, said Linda Close, marketing director for Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport. The new staff will likely take over a small office in the airport's customs area, but that's not definite yet, she said.
Anchorage's new facility will boost the CDC's presence on the West Coast, said Ram Koppaka, acting chief of the CDC's Quarantine and Border Health Services branch. Stations exist or will open in Honolulu, Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego, he said.
Federal law requires airlines to report passengers who become ill or die on an international flight, Remis said. The Atlanta-based CDC has authority to prevent travelers from bringing and spreading infectious diseases in the United States. Besides a pandemic or worldwide flu and SARS, the agency can quarantine for cholera, diphtheria, infectious tuberculosis, plague, smallpox, yellow fever and viral hemorrhagic fevers.
Eight CDC quarantine stations currently operate nationwide, and federal money will increase that to 18 before the end of September. The goal is 25 sites by 2006, Remis said.
Remis said the CDC has hired one of two staff members for Anchorage. Shahrokh Roohi, a registered nurse with a master's degree in public health, will be the site's lead adviser.
Roohi has worked as an adviser in the CDC's Coordinating Office for Terrorism Preparedness and Emergency Response. The agency is still interviewing for a medical doctor, Remis said.
When quarantine issues came up in the past, health officials consulted with officials in Seattle, the next-closest site. In the SARS outbreak in 2003, the CDC staff at Anchorage's Arctic Investigations Program stepped in to help monitor passengers and crew as well as share information about the respiratory syndrome.
Roohi said his staff will collaborate day to day with other public health officials here, work on an emergency response plan for ports of entry and field questions on communicable diseases. But the main role of a quarantine station is to respond to travelers' infectious diseases.
If quarantine were required, Roohi and local health officials could isolate a sick traveler at a local hospital while they determined whether the illness was infectious or not. The staff could also quarantine people who had been exposed to these diseases, even if they weren't showing signs of illness.
The CDC said only rare incidents require quarantine. With SARS in 2003, no one was forced into quarantine. In Alaska, several international travelers or flight crew members agreed to voluntary isolation when they had suspicious symptoms, state health officials said.
The CDC has detained planes to talk to passengers about health concerns. In 2001, the agency delayed a plane in Seattle while confirming that a report of smallpox on the flight was false.
That doesn't mean every international traveler will be scrutinized.
"Once upon a time, we used to have to see every single passenger that came in from a foreign country," Remis said. "We screened everyone for appearances of illness."
Now, quarantine station staffs don't see every flight or every passenger. They typically wait to hear from flight staff concerned about a potentially infectious passenger, Remis said.
Anchorage's new quarantine staff will also monitor cruise ships as well as cargo shipments that could include biological specimens such as blood and animals that can carry human diseases, Remis and Roohi said.
Daily News reporter Ann Potempa can be reached at 257-4581 or apotempa@adn.com.
http://www.adn.com/news/alaska/story/6576296p-6459632c.html
City to gain new station for traveler quarantine
DISEASE: Anchorage's proximity to outbreaks in Asia is behind CDC center.
By ANN POTEMPA
Anchorage Daily News
Published: June 6th, 2005
Last Modified: June 6th, 2005 at 02:34 AM
Large numbers of international flights arriving in Anchorage -- about 30 passenger and 500 cargo flights weekly -- have prompted the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to open a new quarantine station here to screen travelers for infectious diseases, including SARS and pandemic avian flu.
"We try to select those airports that provided us the largest percentage of the arriving international traffic," said Marty Remis, deputy branch chief with the CDC's Quarantine and Border Health Services branch. "And Anchorage fell into that group."
Federal health officials know Anchorage is only a flight away from countries with infectious outbreaks. Two years ago, they met incoming flights from Asia looking for SARS. Now a quarantine station will open in July.
"Federal officials will be able to act fast," said Dr. Richard Mandsager, Alaska's public health director. "We won't be scrambling to get people here quickly."
Most quarantine stations nationwide are in airports, and CDC officials hope to open the Anchorage site there. The airport used to house a station that closed about two decades ago, said Linda Close, marketing director for Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport. The new staff will likely take over a small office in the airport's customs area, but that's not definite yet, she said.
Anchorage's new facility will boost the CDC's presence on the West Coast, said Ram Koppaka, acting chief of the CDC's Quarantine and Border Health Services branch. Stations exist or will open in Honolulu, Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego, he said.
Federal law requires airlines to report passengers who become ill or die on an international flight, Remis said. The Atlanta-based CDC has authority to prevent travelers from bringing and spreading infectious diseases in the United States. Besides a pandemic or worldwide flu and SARS, the agency can quarantine for cholera, diphtheria, infectious tuberculosis, plague, smallpox, yellow fever and viral hemorrhagic fevers.
Eight CDC quarantine stations currently operate nationwide, and federal money will increase that to 18 before the end of September. The goal is 25 sites by 2006, Remis said.
Remis said the CDC has hired one of two staff members for Anchorage. Shahrokh Roohi, a registered nurse with a master's degree in public health, will be the site's lead adviser.
Roohi has worked as an adviser in the CDC's Coordinating Office for Terrorism Preparedness and Emergency Response. The agency is still interviewing for a medical doctor, Remis said.
When quarantine issues came up in the past, health officials consulted with officials in Seattle, the next-closest site. In the SARS outbreak in 2003, the CDC staff at Anchorage's Arctic Investigations Program stepped in to help monitor passengers and crew as well as share information about the respiratory syndrome.
Roohi said his staff will collaborate day to day with other public health officials here, work on an emergency response plan for ports of entry and field questions on communicable diseases. But the main role of a quarantine station is to respond to travelers' infectious diseases.
If quarantine were required, Roohi and local health officials could isolate a sick traveler at a local hospital while they determined whether the illness was infectious or not. The staff could also quarantine people who had been exposed to these diseases, even if they weren't showing signs of illness.
The CDC said only rare incidents require quarantine. With SARS in 2003, no one was forced into quarantine. In Alaska, several international travelers or flight crew members agreed to voluntary isolation when they had suspicious symptoms, state health officials said.
The CDC has detained planes to talk to passengers about health concerns. In 2001, the agency delayed a plane in Seattle while confirming that a report of smallpox on the flight was false.
That doesn't mean every international traveler will be scrutinized.
"Once upon a time, we used to have to see every single passenger that came in from a foreign country," Remis said. "We screened everyone for appearances of illness."
Now, quarantine station staffs don't see every flight or every passenger. They typically wait to hear from flight staff concerned about a potentially infectious passenger, Remis said.
Anchorage's new quarantine staff will also monitor cruise ships as well as cargo shipments that could include biological specimens such as blood and animals that can carry human diseases, Remis and Roohi said.
Daily News reporter Ann Potempa can be reached at 257-4581 or apotempa@adn.com.
http://www.adn.com/news/alaska/story/6576296p-6459632c.html
Prefectures remain vulnerable to flu epidemic
06/06/2005
The Asahi Shimbun
Only two prefectures have prepared guidelines to contain an outbreak of a new type of influenza that experts say could infect up to 25 percent of the population and kill 170,000 people, according to an Asahi Shimbun surevy.
Despite international warnings of possible flu pandemics, only Miyazaki and Hiroshima prefectures have guidelines on information distribution and the roles of medical organizations and staff to prevent the disease from spreading to other regions, the survey showed.
The vast majority of prefectures lack medical supplies and coordination plans in the event of a new influenza outbreak, the survey showed.
In fact, not one municipal government has prepared a budget for stockpiles of the virus-resistant flu medicine Tamiflu, although they are required to have enough shots for 3.7 percent of their populations, according to the survey.
"We would have no time to quarantine patients of a new-type influenza, so we must come up with countermeasures, and that includes ordinary medical organizations," said Akihiko Kawana, a doctor on infectious diseases at the International Medical Center of Japan. "Each municipal government should establish guidelines of countermeasures according to the levels of infection."
The World Health Organization in May warned of a possible emergence in Vietnam of a highly contagious form of avian flu virus, which is spread from birds to humans.
In light of the situation, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare has instructed all prefectural governments to come up with guidelines for an outbreak, including methods to screen for the virus and ways to store anti-virus medication.
In January this year, the Miyazaki prefectural government completed its guidelines concerning policy decisions, health-related organizations and measures on collecting and providing information.
The guidelines are based on four scenarios: patients found overseas; patients found in other prefectures; patients found in the prefecture; and a large-scale outbreak in the prefecture.
In the worst case, Miyazaki government officials estimate that 220,000 people in the prefecture would be infected, and about 1,600 people would die.
Hiroshima Prefecture followed suit in April.
But according to the Asahi Shimbun survey, only nine other prefectures, including Tokyo, Osaka, and Fukuoka, said they were in the process of compiling their guidelines. The remaining 36 prefectures said they have no such plans.
Many of the 36 prefectures cited a lack of funds. Others said the central government should make the guidelines. Okinawa Prefecture said it is waiting to see what other prefectures are doing.
Many municipal governments plan to use existing guidelines for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) to cope with a new type of influenza. However, health experts say SARS is much easier to control than influenza at its initial stage because of the relatively smaller number of patients.(IHT/Asahi: June 6,2005)
http://www.asahi.com/english/Herald-asahi/TKY200506060195.html
06/06/2005
The Asahi Shimbun
Only two prefectures have prepared guidelines to contain an outbreak of a new type of influenza that experts say could infect up to 25 percent of the population and kill 170,000 people, according to an Asahi Shimbun surevy.
Despite international warnings of possible flu pandemics, only Miyazaki and Hiroshima prefectures have guidelines on information distribution and the roles of medical organizations and staff to prevent the disease from spreading to other regions, the survey showed.
The vast majority of prefectures lack medical supplies and coordination plans in the event of a new influenza outbreak, the survey showed.
In fact, not one municipal government has prepared a budget for stockpiles of the virus-resistant flu medicine Tamiflu, although they are required to have enough shots for 3.7 percent of their populations, according to the survey.
"We would have no time to quarantine patients of a new-type influenza, so we must come up with countermeasures, and that includes ordinary medical organizations," said Akihiko Kawana, a doctor on infectious diseases at the International Medical Center of Japan. "Each municipal government should establish guidelines of countermeasures according to the levels of infection."
The World Health Organization in May warned of a possible emergence in Vietnam of a highly contagious form of avian flu virus, which is spread from birds to humans.
In light of the situation, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare has instructed all prefectural governments to come up with guidelines for an outbreak, including methods to screen for the virus and ways to store anti-virus medication.
In January this year, the Miyazaki prefectural government completed its guidelines concerning policy decisions, health-related organizations and measures on collecting and providing information.
The guidelines are based on four scenarios: patients found overseas; patients found in other prefectures; patients found in the prefecture; and a large-scale outbreak in the prefecture.
In the worst case, Miyazaki government officials estimate that 220,000 people in the prefecture would be infected, and about 1,600 people would die.
Hiroshima Prefecture followed suit in April.
But according to the Asahi Shimbun survey, only nine other prefectures, including Tokyo, Osaka, and Fukuoka, said they were in the process of compiling their guidelines. The remaining 36 prefectures said they have no such plans.
Many of the 36 prefectures cited a lack of funds. Others said the central government should make the guidelines. Okinawa Prefecture said it is waiting to see what other prefectures are doing.
Many municipal governments plan to use existing guidelines for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) to cope with a new type of influenza. However, health experts say SARS is much easier to control than influenza at its initial stage because of the relatively smaller number of patients.(IHT/Asahi: June 6,2005)
http://www.asahi.com/english/Herald-asahi/TKY200506060195.html
Coping with the coming pandemic in poultry
Gwynne Dyer, London
The long-term solution is to invest many billions of dollars and a huge amount of political capital in persuading peasant families throughout China and Southeast Asia to change the way they raise their poultry. The urgent short-term task is to develop a way of mass-producing influenza vaccine far faster than is now possible. It's urgent because "the world is in the gravest possible danger of a global pandemic," as Shigeru Omi, Western Pacific regional director of the World Health Organization, told an emergency conference on avian flu held in Vietnam two months ago.
The H5N1 avian flu virus first crossed into human beings in 1997, but it has clearly been mutating in recent years in ways that make it more capable of moving from birds to people. The spate of human infections in mid 2003 in China and Southeast Asia was so serious that over 100 million domestic birds were killed or died in those countries before it subsided in early 2004, but there was only a few months' respite before bird-to-human transmission began again last June.
The virus has now appeared in wild birds who can carry the virus far beyond its original reservoir in domestic chickens in southern China and Southeast Asia: In late May China closed all its nature parks after 178 migratory geese were found dead from the virus in Qinghai province in the north-west. The most recent outbreak has so far killed 53 people in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia -- and even more ominously, the first probable case of human-to-human transmission was recorded last September in Vietnam.
The danger of a global flu pandemic that could be as bad as or worse than the "Spanish influenza" outbreak of 1918-1919 (which killed 40 to 50 million people, half of them young, healthy adults) comes from the fact that a strain of influenza virus that normally affects only birds can swap genes with a strain that is highly infectious between human beings. If people with the human type of influenza should also be infected with the avian type (through direct contact with infected poultry), the gene swap can easily occur -- and direct human-to-human transmission becomes possible. At that point, given current patterns of international travel, the world might be only weeks away from a global pandemic.
We don't know if avian flu viruses swapping genes with human types caused the lethal Spanish influenza, but that was certainly the source of the much milder "Asian flu" outbreak in 1957-1958 (which killed 70,000 people in the United States alone) and the "Hong Kong flu" pandemic in 1968-1969 (50,000 US deaths). Given the rate at which influenza viruses mutate, we are overdue for another pandemic -- and this one could be a monster.
The H5N1 virus is resistant to most anti-viral drugs, and in the avian form it has been getting steadily stronger. Early outbreaks killed around 10 percent of poultry flocks; more recent ones have been killing up to 90 percent.
In people who have caught avian flu, the death rate has been horrendous: 50 to 75 percent of those infected. A gene-swapped version that is directly communicable between human beings might be less lethal, but it could still far exceed the 1-2 percent fatality rate of the Spanish influenza. To make matters worse, this version of avian flu has a long incubation period. Unlike the SARS virus that killed 774 people two years ago, it may be very hard to stop before it spreads into the general population.
"When people were transmitting the (SARS) virus they were already showing signs, so it could be picked up at airports with temperature (detectors)," explained World Health Organization spokesman Peter Cordingley. "With (avian) flu you can be infectious before you show any signs." If human-to-human infections start to spread, there could be not only huge loss of life, but global economic chaos as air travel is shut down to contain the spread, borders are closed, and essential services break down because too many of their workers are off sick or just hiding from the flu at home.
Governments are already arming themselves to deal with this pandemic -- on April 1 President George W. Bush added "influenza caused by novel or reemergent influenza viruses that are causing, or have the potential to cause, a pandemic" to the list of diseases for which a quarantine can be declared -- but there is no vaccine. As things stand now, none could be available for months after the pandemic begins. That is why five teams of scientists, writing in last week's edition of the journal Nature, urged a permanent global task force to react quickly to outbreaks of bird flu. If it is not done, they warned, millions will die.
The first opportunity to create such a task force will be at the G-8 summit in Scotland next month, and its first priority must be to develop new and easily produced vaccines to deal with the expected outbreak. But lasting progress, as Samuel Jutzi of the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization said at the Vietnam meeting in March, depends on "addressing the transmission of the virus where it occurs, in poultry, specifically free-range chickens and wetland-dwelling ducks." In other words, a couple of hundred million Asian peasants have to be persuaded to stop living in the same space as their poultry. A tall order, but a necessary one.
http://www.thejakartapost.com/detaileditorial.asp?fileid=20050607.F04&irec=3
Gwynne Dyer, London
The long-term solution is to invest many billions of dollars and a huge amount of political capital in persuading peasant families throughout China and Southeast Asia to change the way they raise their poultry. The urgent short-term task is to develop a way of mass-producing influenza vaccine far faster than is now possible. It's urgent because "the world is in the gravest possible danger of a global pandemic," as Shigeru Omi, Western Pacific regional director of the World Health Organization, told an emergency conference on avian flu held in Vietnam two months ago.
The H5N1 avian flu virus first crossed into human beings in 1997, but it has clearly been mutating in recent years in ways that make it more capable of moving from birds to people. The spate of human infections in mid 2003 in China and Southeast Asia was so serious that over 100 million domestic birds were killed or died in those countries before it subsided in early 2004, but there was only a few months' respite before bird-to-human transmission began again last June.
The virus has now appeared in wild birds who can carry the virus far beyond its original reservoir in domestic chickens in southern China and Southeast Asia: In late May China closed all its nature parks after 178 migratory geese were found dead from the virus in Qinghai province in the north-west. The most recent outbreak has so far killed 53 people in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia -- and even more ominously, the first probable case of human-to-human transmission was recorded last September in Vietnam.
The danger of a global flu pandemic that could be as bad as or worse than the "Spanish influenza" outbreak of 1918-1919 (which killed 40 to 50 million people, half of them young, healthy adults) comes from the fact that a strain of influenza virus that normally affects only birds can swap genes with a strain that is highly infectious between human beings. If people with the human type of influenza should also be infected with the avian type (through direct contact with infected poultry), the gene swap can easily occur -- and direct human-to-human transmission becomes possible. At that point, given current patterns of international travel, the world might be only weeks away from a global pandemic.
We don't know if avian flu viruses swapping genes with human types caused the lethal Spanish influenza, but that was certainly the source of the much milder "Asian flu" outbreak in 1957-1958 (which killed 70,000 people in the United States alone) and the "Hong Kong flu" pandemic in 1968-1969 (50,000 US deaths). Given the rate at which influenza viruses mutate, we are overdue for another pandemic -- and this one could be a monster.
The H5N1 virus is resistant to most anti-viral drugs, and in the avian form it has been getting steadily stronger. Early outbreaks killed around 10 percent of poultry flocks; more recent ones have been killing up to 90 percent.
In people who have caught avian flu, the death rate has been horrendous: 50 to 75 percent of those infected. A gene-swapped version that is directly communicable between human beings might be less lethal, but it could still far exceed the 1-2 percent fatality rate of the Spanish influenza. To make matters worse, this version of avian flu has a long incubation period. Unlike the SARS virus that killed 774 people two years ago, it may be very hard to stop before it spreads into the general population.
"When people were transmitting the (SARS) virus they were already showing signs, so it could be picked up at airports with temperature (detectors)," explained World Health Organization spokesman Peter Cordingley. "With (avian) flu you can be infectious before you show any signs." If human-to-human infections start to spread, there could be not only huge loss of life, but global economic chaos as air travel is shut down to contain the spread, borders are closed, and essential services break down because too many of their workers are off sick or just hiding from the flu at home.
Governments are already arming themselves to deal with this pandemic -- on April 1 President George W. Bush added "influenza caused by novel or reemergent influenza viruses that are causing, or have the potential to cause, a pandemic" to the list of diseases for which a quarantine can be declared -- but there is no vaccine. As things stand now, none could be available for months after the pandemic begins. That is why five teams of scientists, writing in last week's edition of the journal Nature, urged a permanent global task force to react quickly to outbreaks of bird flu. If it is not done, they warned, millions will die.
The first opportunity to create such a task force will be at the G-8 summit in Scotland next month, and its first priority must be to develop new and easily produced vaccines to deal with the expected outbreak. But lasting progress, as Samuel Jutzi of the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization said at the Vietnam meeting in March, depends on "addressing the transmission of the virus where it occurs, in poultry, specifically free-range chickens and wetland-dwelling ducks." In other words, a couple of hundred million Asian peasants have to be persuaded to stop living in the same space as their poultry. A tall order, but a necessary one.
http://www.thejakartapost.com/detaileditorial.asp?fileid=20050607.F04&irec=3
Guest columnists
Infectious-disease network needs money to keep microbes at bay
By Ann Marie Kimball and Louis Fox
Special to The Times
Traveling on an airplane returning to Seattle recently, the man behind us was sneezing and snorting, and the woman two seats away was clearly running a fever. We felt doomed, certain that we would come down with a cold or the flu or some such thing in a day or two. And we were inevitably right.
Sound familiar? Despite advanced cabin air circulation and other measures, all of us have had the experience in flight of catching our seatmate's illness.
Suppose one of these passengers, instead of having a garden-variety cold or flu, had the newly identified and much-feared avian flu?
For three years, the control of "bird flu" in poultry has been a daily struggle for 11 countries in Asia. Fifty-three human cases, with 21 deaths, have occurred to date. In other words, almost half the people who contracted this flu have died of it.
Just the other week, the People's Republic of China (PRC) scrambled to deny a report that a number of human cases had occurred in Qinghai province. Late and ominous news from the PRC was a key feature in giving the 2003 SARS outbreak a head start. This latest information recalled that unfortunate time.
International authorities have been closely watching the sporadic bird-to-human transmission in Southeast Asia. The World Health Organization has rushed experts to the affected areas each time a new human case occurs. Poultry are culled, and human contacts are put into quarantine.
What keeps the bird flu from spreading? Will it fulfill the prophecy of the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Julie Gerberding, who predicted in May of this year, "It is not a matter of if an avian pandemic flu will occur, it is a matter of when"?
What keeps the wolf at bay are timely alerts and timely action.
For nine years, the University of Washington has run one of the key networks providing such alerts: the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation's Emerging Infections Network (APEC EINet).
APEC EINet proved its value as the sole information link between commerce and health officials during the SARS epidemic, and was a key information resource during the aftermath of the recent tsunami in Asia. It connects international leaders in public health, business, policy and other sectors through biweekly e-mail bulletins, conferences and deployment of the latest communications technologies, all in support of better preparedness for infectious-disease outbreaks.
Many of the best minds at work on understanding the spread of infectious diseases are right here in Seattle. Our region is playing an increasingly important role in global health through the work being done at many leading institutions, including the University of Washington, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, PATH (Program for Appropriate Technology in Health), and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center.
Researchers and practitioners at these institutions are at the core of public-health networks linking the leading universities in the Pacific Rim. Their collective knowledge of which emerging infectious diseases are a threat to our health, how best to understand these threats and how to contain them, grows ever more powerful.
Yet, as important as this growing body of knowledge is, it is so much more powerful when connected to an equally powerful telecommunications research and education network.
Here, too, the Pacific Northwest is well served by the advances made by the UW and its partners like the Pacific Northwest Gigapop (the hub for ultra-broadband research telecommunications networks in the Asia Pacific region), the Internet Educational Equal Access Foundation, the Asia Pacific Advanced Network, and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, which together have created the APEC EINet.
Public Health — Seattle & King County often serves as a model for other cities on how to deal with public-health emergencies. And this week, the 2005 Pacific Health Summit will be held in Seattle, bringing together leading health experts from throughout the Asian Pacific region.
Given Washington state's many ports of entry, the concentration of talent and expertise here is a wonderful insurance policy. It isn't just a matter of medicine; it is a matter of communication and intervention.
Ironically, with competing domestic and international federal funding priorities, APEC EINet has slipped through the cracks and will soon disappear without financial support. Fully funding this effort — less than $250,000 annually — is a matter of critical public-health policy.
It is time for our region — both private and public institutions — to invest in securing the ongoing critical linkages provided by APEC EINet. Given our strategic position in the region, it is in the interest of the people of Washington to do so.
Infectious diseases are incredibly fast and efficient in their spread and devastation. Almost nothing moves as fast as microbes traveling by aircraft ... except secure and high-speed Internet connections carrying essential information among networks of trusted professionals who have the knowledge and authority to do what is necessary to intervene.
Let's not wait until the person next to you on the airplane has something worse than a cold.
Ann Marie Kimball is a professor in the University of Washington School of Public Health.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/cg...ion_id=268883724&slug=kimball07&date=20050607
Infectious-disease network needs money to keep microbes at bay
By Ann Marie Kimball and Louis Fox
Special to The Times
Traveling on an airplane returning to Seattle recently, the man behind us was sneezing and snorting, and the woman two seats away was clearly running a fever. We felt doomed, certain that we would come down with a cold or the flu or some such thing in a day or two. And we were inevitably right.
Sound familiar? Despite advanced cabin air circulation and other measures, all of us have had the experience in flight of catching our seatmate's illness.
Suppose one of these passengers, instead of having a garden-variety cold or flu, had the newly identified and much-feared avian flu?
For three years, the control of "bird flu" in poultry has been a daily struggle for 11 countries in Asia. Fifty-three human cases, with 21 deaths, have occurred to date. In other words, almost half the people who contracted this flu have died of it.
Just the other week, the People's Republic of China (PRC) scrambled to deny a report that a number of human cases had occurred in Qinghai province. Late and ominous news from the PRC was a key feature in giving the 2003 SARS outbreak a head start. This latest information recalled that unfortunate time.
International authorities have been closely watching the sporadic bird-to-human transmission in Southeast Asia. The World Health Organization has rushed experts to the affected areas each time a new human case occurs. Poultry are culled, and human contacts are put into quarantine.
What keeps the bird flu from spreading? Will it fulfill the prophecy of the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Julie Gerberding, who predicted in May of this year, "It is not a matter of if an avian pandemic flu will occur, it is a matter of when"?
What keeps the wolf at bay are timely alerts and timely action.
For nine years, the University of Washington has run one of the key networks providing such alerts: the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation's Emerging Infections Network (APEC EINet).
APEC EINet proved its value as the sole information link between commerce and health officials during the SARS epidemic, and was a key information resource during the aftermath of the recent tsunami in Asia. It connects international leaders in public health, business, policy and other sectors through biweekly e-mail bulletins, conferences and deployment of the latest communications technologies, all in support of better preparedness for infectious-disease outbreaks.
Many of the best minds at work on understanding the spread of infectious diseases are right here in Seattle. Our region is playing an increasingly important role in global health through the work being done at many leading institutions, including the University of Washington, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, PATH (Program for Appropriate Technology in Health), and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center.
Researchers and practitioners at these institutions are at the core of public-health networks linking the leading universities in the Pacific Rim. Their collective knowledge of which emerging infectious diseases are a threat to our health, how best to understand these threats and how to contain them, grows ever more powerful.
Yet, as important as this growing body of knowledge is, it is so much more powerful when connected to an equally powerful telecommunications research and education network.
Here, too, the Pacific Northwest is well served by the advances made by the UW and its partners like the Pacific Northwest Gigapop (the hub for ultra-broadband research telecommunications networks in the Asia Pacific region), the Internet Educational Equal Access Foundation, the Asia Pacific Advanced Network, and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, which together have created the APEC EINet.
Public Health — Seattle & King County often serves as a model for other cities on how to deal with public-health emergencies. And this week, the 2005 Pacific Health Summit will be held in Seattle, bringing together leading health experts from throughout the Asian Pacific region.
Given Washington state's many ports of entry, the concentration of talent and expertise here is a wonderful insurance policy. It isn't just a matter of medicine; it is a matter of communication and intervention.
Ironically, with competing domestic and international federal funding priorities, APEC EINet has slipped through the cracks and will soon disappear without financial support. Fully funding this effort — less than $250,000 annually — is a matter of critical public-health policy.
It is time for our region — both private and public institutions — to invest in securing the ongoing critical linkages provided by APEC EINet. Given our strategic position in the region, it is in the interest of the people of Washington to do so.
Infectious diseases are incredibly fast and efficient in their spread and devastation. Almost nothing moves as fast as microbes traveling by aircraft ... except secure and high-speed Internet connections carrying essential information among networks of trusted professionals who have the knowledge and authority to do what is necessary to intervene.
Let's not wait until the person next to you on the airplane has something worse than a cold.
Ann Marie Kimball is a professor in the University of Washington School of Public Health.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/cg...ion_id=268883724&slug=kimball07&date=20050607
Flu in wild birds sparks fears of mutating virus
from Nature
David Cyranoski
Experts pressure China for samples that can be analysed.
The deaths in China of more than 1,000 migratory birds from the flu strain H5N1 has left experts struggling to square the outbreak with their knowledge of the virus. At the same time, rumours are beginning to circulate that humans in the region have also fallen victim to the disease — although official sources have so far denied this.
The H5N1 strain has killed at least 53 people in Asia since late 2003, and is seen as one of the prime candidates for sparking a human pandemic. Migratory birds can act as carriers of flu, but their role in spreading highly dangerous strains such as H5N1 remains a matter for debate.
Until the latest outbreak, only a handful of migratory birds were known to have died from H5N1. This led some experts to suggest that the migrants are asymptomatic carriers of the virus, causing the occasional outbreak among poultry populations along their migration routes. Others believed that the small number of deaths among migrants were simply the result of wild birds picking up the infection from local ducks or chickens.
But the revelation on 21 May that at least 500 wild birds across five different species had died from the virus has dramatically altered the situation. With H5N1 now seeming to be highly infectious and lethal among the migrants, experts fear that the virus's genes may have mutated or reassorted.
To find out, the World Health Organization (WHO) is pressuring China to release samples for sequencing and analysis. “This is an exceptional case,” says Maria Cheng, the WHO's spokeswoman in Beijing. “We want to see the virus as soon as we can.”
China had not reported any cases of H5N1 in people or birds since a previous poultry outbreak ended in June 2004. But several Internet sites including ProMED-mail, an online database of health-related news, are now reporting that people are dying as a result of the latest outbreak (see ‘China rejects Internet claims of human cases’, below). Some sources are claiming there have been up to 120 fatalities.
The Chinese health authorities deny that any human cases have been found. Since early May, when 178 suspicious waterfowl deaths were first reported in the Niannaisuoma village of northeastern Qinghai, authorities have quarantined the area, requiring people going there to wear goggles, masks and gowns. Increased surveillance so far has found no sick people, officials say.
There is no evidence of human to human transmission in the area, and large-scale transmission from so few wild birds directly to humans is unlikely, says virologist Vincent Deubel, who heads the Pasteur Institute in Shanghai. “A more virulent form for birds does not mean a more virulent form for humans,” he explains. “It would be unrealistic to expect so many human deaths from an outbreak in only 500 birds.”
But the numbers of reported bird deaths might hugely underestimate the actual toll, says Fusheng Guo, coordinator for the UN Food and Agriculture Organization's regional avian-flu surveillance network. “Many of them won't be found,” he says, adding that his colleagues in Qinghai are reporting many more deaths every day. “I'm very worried about this.” In fact, less than a week after the figure of 519 bird deaths was released, Jia Youling, director of the veterinary bureau at China's agriculture ministry, revised the number to more than 1,000.
Baoxu Huang, director of China's National Animal Quarantine Institute, says that the Qinghai cases are probably isolated. He adds that China has more than 450 surveillance sites looking for the virus in various animals, including migratory birds. But one source says staff at the sites lack the necessary resources and training, and are likely to be missing cases. The surveillance stations in Qinghai, the source says, have machines for diagnosing samples, but people there don't know how to use them, and don't have the necessary reagents.
http://www.nature.com/drugdisc/news/articles/435542a.html
from Nature
David Cyranoski
Experts pressure China for samples that can be analysed.
The deaths in China of more than 1,000 migratory birds from the flu strain H5N1 has left experts struggling to square the outbreak with their knowledge of the virus. At the same time, rumours are beginning to circulate that humans in the region have also fallen victim to the disease — although official sources have so far denied this.
The H5N1 strain has killed at least 53 people in Asia since late 2003, and is seen as one of the prime candidates for sparking a human pandemic. Migratory birds can act as carriers of flu, but their role in spreading highly dangerous strains such as H5N1 remains a matter for debate.
Until the latest outbreak, only a handful of migratory birds were known to have died from H5N1. This led some experts to suggest that the migrants are asymptomatic carriers of the virus, causing the occasional outbreak among poultry populations along their migration routes. Others believed that the small number of deaths among migrants were simply the result of wild birds picking up the infection from local ducks or chickens.
But the revelation on 21 May that at least 500 wild birds across five different species had died from the virus has dramatically altered the situation. With H5N1 now seeming to be highly infectious and lethal among the migrants, experts fear that the virus's genes may have mutated or reassorted.
To find out, the World Health Organization (WHO) is pressuring China to release samples for sequencing and analysis. “This is an exceptional case,” says Maria Cheng, the WHO's spokeswoman in Beijing. “We want to see the virus as soon as we can.”
China had not reported any cases of H5N1 in people or birds since a previous poultry outbreak ended in June 2004. But several Internet sites including ProMED-mail, an online database of health-related news, are now reporting that people are dying as a result of the latest outbreak (see ‘China rejects Internet claims of human cases’, below). Some sources are claiming there have been up to 120 fatalities.
The Chinese health authorities deny that any human cases have been found. Since early May, when 178 suspicious waterfowl deaths were first reported in the Niannaisuoma village of northeastern Qinghai, authorities have quarantined the area, requiring people going there to wear goggles, masks and gowns. Increased surveillance so far has found no sick people, officials say.
There is no evidence of human to human transmission in the area, and large-scale transmission from so few wild birds directly to humans is unlikely, says virologist Vincent Deubel, who heads the Pasteur Institute in Shanghai. “A more virulent form for birds does not mean a more virulent form for humans,” he explains. “It would be unrealistic to expect so many human deaths from an outbreak in only 500 birds.”
But the numbers of reported bird deaths might hugely underestimate the actual toll, says Fusheng Guo, coordinator for the UN Food and Agriculture Organization's regional avian-flu surveillance network. “Many of them won't be found,” he says, adding that his colleagues in Qinghai are reporting many more deaths every day. “I'm very worried about this.” In fact, less than a week after the figure of 519 bird deaths was released, Jia Youling, director of the veterinary bureau at China's agriculture ministry, revised the number to more than 1,000.
Baoxu Huang, director of China's National Animal Quarantine Institute, says that the Qinghai cases are probably isolated. He adds that China has more than 450 surveillance sites looking for the virus in various animals, including migratory birds. But one source says staff at the sites lack the necessary resources and training, and are likely to be missing cases. The surveillance stations in Qinghai, the source says, have machines for diagnosing samples, but people there don't know how to use them, and don't have the necessary reagents.
http://www.nature.com/drugdisc/news/articles/435542a.html
Jesse
Membership Revoked
Evening!
Does anyone know how long this virus can survive on inanimate matter such as paper (mail etc), door handles, countertops (at home) etc? What keeps it viable, and what kills it? Do we even know the answer(s) to any of these questions?
Have a spectacular evening! - Jesse.
Does anyone know how long this virus can survive on inanimate matter such as paper (mail etc), door handles, countertops (at home) etc? What keeps it viable, and what kills it? Do we even know the answer(s) to any of these questions?
Have a spectacular evening! - Jesse.
June 6, 2005
Grounding a Pandemic
By BARACK OBAMA and RICHARD LUGAR
Washington — When we think of the major threats to our national security, the first to come to mind are nuclear proliferation, rogue states and global terrorism. But another kind of threat lurks beyond our shores, one from nature, not humans - an avian flu pandemic. An outbreak could cause millions of deaths, destabilize Southeast Asia (its likely place of origin), and threaten the security of governments around the world.
Earlier this year, Dr. Julie L. Gerberding, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, called the possibility of avian flu spreading from Southeast Asia "a very ominous situation for the globe." A killer flu could spread around the world in days, crippling economies in Southeast Asia and elsewhere. From a public health standpoint, Dr. Gerberding said, an avian flu outbreak is "the most important threat that we are facing right now."
International health experts say that two of the three conditions for an avian flu pandemic in Southeast Asia have already been met. First, a new strain of the virus, called A(H5N1), has emerged, and humans have little or no immunity to it. Second, this strain can jump between species. The only remaining obstacle is that A(H5N1) has not yet mutated into a form that is easily transmitted from human to human.
However, there have been some alarming developments. In recent months, the virus has been detected in mammals that have never previously been infected, including tigers, leopards and domestic cats. This spread suggests that the virus is mutating and could eventually emerge in a form that is readily transmittable among humans, leading to a full-blown pandemic. In fact, according to government officials, a few cases of human-to-human spread of A(H5N1) have already occurred.
The precedent that experts fear is the 1918 flu pandemic, which began in the American Midwest and swept the planet in the era before air travel, killing 20 million to 40 million people. As John M. Barry, author of "The Great Influenza," has observed, "Influenza killed more people in a year than the Black Death of the Middle Ages killed in a century; it killed more people in 24 weeks than AIDS has killed in 24 years."
At the moment, effective responses to an avian flu pandemic are limited and will come far too late for many people in Southeast Asia. Indeed, so far more than 60 percent of those diagnosed with the avian flu have died. There is no proven vaccine for the A(H5N1) strain and it could take months to produce a fully effective one. Moreover, while some antiviral treatments may help flu sufferers, they are not widely available and must be administered to patients within 24 hours after the onset of symptoms.
It is essential for the international community, led by the United States, to take decisive action to prevent a pandemic.
So what should we do? Recently, the World Health Organization called for more money and attention to be devoted to effective preventive action, appealing for $100 million.
Congress responded promptly. A bipartisan group of senators obtained $25 million for prevention efforts (a quarter of the request, the traditional contribution of the United States), allowing the C.D.C., the Agency for International Development, the Health and Human Services Department and other agencies to improve their ability to act.
In addition, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee unanimously approved legislation directing President Bush to form a senior-level task force to put in place an international strategy to deal with the avian flu and coordinate policy among our government agencies. We urge the Bush administration to form this task force immediately without waiting for legislation to be passed.
But these are only modest first steps. International health experts believe that Southeast Asia will be an epicenter of influenza for decades. We recommend that this administration work with Congress, public health officials, the pharmaceutical industry, foreign governments and international organizations to create a permanent framework for curtailing the spread of future infectious diseases.
Among the parts of that framework could be these:
Increasing international disease surveillance, response capacity and public education and coordination, especially in Southeast Asia.
Stockpiling enough antiviral doses to cover high-risk populations and essential workers.
Ensuring that, here at home, Health and Human Services and state governments put in place plans that address issues of surveillance, medical care, drug and vaccine distribution, communication, protection of the work force and maintenance of core public functions in case of a pandemic.
Accelerating research into avian flu vaccines and antiviral drugs.
Establishing incentives to encourage nations to report flu outbreaks quickly and fully.
So far, A(H5N1) has not been found in the United States. But in an age when you can board planes in Bangkok or Hong Kong and arrive in Chicago, Indianapolis or New York in hours, we must face the reality that these exotic killer diseases are not isolated health problems half a world away, but direct and immediate threats to security and prosperity here at home.
Barack Obama, Democrat of Illinois, is a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Richard Lugar, Republican of Indiana, is its chairman.
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/06/opinion/06obama.html?pagewanted=print
Grounding a Pandemic
By BARACK OBAMA and RICHARD LUGAR
Washington — When we think of the major threats to our national security, the first to come to mind are nuclear proliferation, rogue states and global terrorism. But another kind of threat lurks beyond our shores, one from nature, not humans - an avian flu pandemic. An outbreak could cause millions of deaths, destabilize Southeast Asia (its likely place of origin), and threaten the security of governments around the world.
Earlier this year, Dr. Julie L. Gerberding, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, called the possibility of avian flu spreading from Southeast Asia "a very ominous situation for the globe." A killer flu could spread around the world in days, crippling economies in Southeast Asia and elsewhere. From a public health standpoint, Dr. Gerberding said, an avian flu outbreak is "the most important threat that we are facing right now."
International health experts say that two of the three conditions for an avian flu pandemic in Southeast Asia have already been met. First, a new strain of the virus, called A(H5N1), has emerged, and humans have little or no immunity to it. Second, this strain can jump between species. The only remaining obstacle is that A(H5N1) has not yet mutated into a form that is easily transmitted from human to human.
However, there have been some alarming developments. In recent months, the virus has been detected in mammals that have never previously been infected, including tigers, leopards and domestic cats. This spread suggests that the virus is mutating and could eventually emerge in a form that is readily transmittable among humans, leading to a full-blown pandemic. In fact, according to government officials, a few cases of human-to-human spread of A(H5N1) have already occurred.
The precedent that experts fear is the 1918 flu pandemic, which began in the American Midwest and swept the planet in the era before air travel, killing 20 million to 40 million people. As John M. Barry, author of "The Great Influenza," has observed, "Influenza killed more people in a year than the Black Death of the Middle Ages killed in a century; it killed more people in 24 weeks than AIDS has killed in 24 years."
At the moment, effective responses to an avian flu pandemic are limited and will come far too late for many people in Southeast Asia. Indeed, so far more than 60 percent of those diagnosed with the avian flu have died. There is no proven vaccine for the A(H5N1) strain and it could take months to produce a fully effective one. Moreover, while some antiviral treatments may help flu sufferers, they are not widely available and must be administered to patients within 24 hours after the onset of symptoms.
It is essential for the international community, led by the United States, to take decisive action to prevent a pandemic.
So what should we do? Recently, the World Health Organization called for more money and attention to be devoted to effective preventive action, appealing for $100 million.
Congress responded promptly. A bipartisan group of senators obtained $25 million for prevention efforts (a quarter of the request, the traditional contribution of the United States), allowing the C.D.C., the Agency for International Development, the Health and Human Services Department and other agencies to improve their ability to act.
In addition, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee unanimously approved legislation directing President Bush to form a senior-level task force to put in place an international strategy to deal with the avian flu and coordinate policy among our government agencies. We urge the Bush administration to form this task force immediately without waiting for legislation to be passed.
But these are only modest first steps. International health experts believe that Southeast Asia will be an epicenter of influenza for decades. We recommend that this administration work with Congress, public health officials, the pharmaceutical industry, foreign governments and international organizations to create a permanent framework for curtailing the spread of future infectious diseases.
Among the parts of that framework could be these:
Increasing international disease surveillance, response capacity and public education and coordination, especially in Southeast Asia.
Stockpiling enough antiviral doses to cover high-risk populations and essential workers.
Ensuring that, here at home, Health and Human Services and state governments put in place plans that address issues of surveillance, medical care, drug and vaccine distribution, communication, protection of the work force and maintenance of core public functions in case of a pandemic.
Accelerating research into avian flu vaccines and antiviral drugs.
Establishing incentives to encourage nations to report flu outbreaks quickly and fully.
So far, A(H5N1) has not been found in the United States. But in an age when you can board planes in Bangkok or Hong Kong and arrive in Chicago, Indianapolis or New York in hours, we must face the reality that these exotic killer diseases are not isolated health problems half a world away, but direct and immediate threats to security and prosperity here at home.
Barack Obama, Democrat of Illinois, is a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Richard Lugar, Republican of Indiana, is its chairman.
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/06/opinion/06obama.html?pagewanted=print
Sharon
Inactive
I'm trying to stay up with this new strain of "potential" deadly flu, I've got it googled for "when it happens" news reports and of course reading about it here on TB2. The more I read, the more I'm just hoping we'll be able to "dodge the bullet" so to speak.
I don't like what I'm reading, and think perhaps it's not to early for those of us who believe in prayer to start praying!
Thanks to all who contribute to this thread!
I don't like what I'm reading, and think perhaps it's not to early for those of us who believe in prayer to start praying!
Thanks to all who contribute to this thread!
H5N1 in Russia Kazhakstan and Mongolia?
Recombinomics Commentary
June 8, 2005
>> Location of the outbreak: Xinjiang autonomous region,Tacheng district, Tacheng city.
Description of affected population: geese.
Total number of animals in the outbreak:
susceptible: 2,177
cases: 1,042
deaths: 460
destroyed: 13,457 <<
Today's OIE report from China demonstrates how quickly the H5N1 infections are spreading. On May 21, the OIE report detailed 519 dead waterfowl (5 species) in and around Gangcha County and Qinghai Lake Nature Reserve. The birds were killed by H5N1 that was HPAI ( Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) base on the sequence of the HA cleavage site as well as a biological assay showing that isolated virus could kill laboratory infected chickens.
Vaccines were rushed to Qinghai Province as well as Xinjiang to try to control the spread by waterfowl. All nature reserves in China were closed and the outbreak was said to be limited to wild birds. However, today's report includes the biological assay, suggesting China knew of this outbreak 1-2 weeks ago and this outbreak clearly affects domestic geese.
China had indicated other provinces in China were not threatened, but that was because the birds were migrating to the north and west, toward Russia and Europe.
Today's report indicates the outbreak was in Tacheng city, which is on the border with Kazakhstan and only about 100 miles from borders with Mongolia and Russia. Tacheng city is almost 1000 miles west of Qinghai Lake. Since today's OIE report includes the biological assay which includes isolating, growing, and infecting the virus into chickens and then waiting for the chickens to die, it seems likely that H5N1 has already moved into the three adjacent countries.
None of the three adjacent countries have previously reported H5N1 HPAI (bird flu). The rapid movement of H5N1 to the north and west is cause for concern.
Although China has promptly notifies OIE of the wild and domestic bird deaths, they have not provided any specific data on the reported human or other mammalian deaths.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06080503/H5N1_Russia_Migration.html
Recombinomics Commentary
June 8, 2005
>> Location of the outbreak: Xinjiang autonomous region,Tacheng district, Tacheng city.
Description of affected population: geese.
Total number of animals in the outbreak:
susceptible: 2,177
cases: 1,042
deaths: 460
destroyed: 13,457 <<
Today's OIE report from China demonstrates how quickly the H5N1 infections are spreading. On May 21, the OIE report detailed 519 dead waterfowl (5 species) in and around Gangcha County and Qinghai Lake Nature Reserve. The birds were killed by H5N1 that was HPAI ( Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) base on the sequence of the HA cleavage site as well as a biological assay showing that isolated virus could kill laboratory infected chickens.
Vaccines were rushed to Qinghai Province as well as Xinjiang to try to control the spread by waterfowl. All nature reserves in China were closed and the outbreak was said to be limited to wild birds. However, today's report includes the biological assay, suggesting China knew of this outbreak 1-2 weeks ago and this outbreak clearly affects domestic geese.
China had indicated other provinces in China were not threatened, but that was because the birds were migrating to the north and west, toward Russia and Europe.
Today's report indicates the outbreak was in Tacheng city, which is on the border with Kazakhstan and only about 100 miles from borders with Mongolia and Russia. Tacheng city is almost 1000 miles west of Qinghai Lake. Since today's OIE report includes the biological assay which includes isolating, growing, and infecting the virus into chickens and then waiting for the chickens to die, it seems likely that H5N1 has already moved into the three adjacent countries.
None of the three adjacent countries have previously reported H5N1 HPAI (bird flu). The rapid movement of H5N1 to the north and west is cause for concern.
Although China has promptly notifies OIE of the wild and domestic bird deaths, they have not provided any specific data on the reported human or other mammalian deaths.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06080503/H5N1_Russia_Migration.html
http://news.inq7.net/metro/index.php?index=1&story_id=39677
Watch out before taking a bite of duck
First posted 11:38pm (Mla time) June 08, 2005
By Christine Gaylican
Inquirer News Service
THE DEPARTMENT of Agriculture has warned the public and restaurant owners about serving Peking ducks that could be infected with the avian flu virus.
"The ongoing Peking Duck Festival at the Eastwood Libis offering a 50 percent discount on Peking duck purchases is an insult to our efforts to protect the country from the entry of bird flu and smuggling.
Consumers are at risk," said Agriculture Undersecretary Cesar Drilon in a forum Wednesday with officials and members of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Filipino-Chinese Chamber of Commerce Inc.
Ban not lifted
Drilon reiterated that the agency had not lifted the ban on imported poultry and pork products from China since May 2001.
The ducks make their way to Chinese restaurants through smugglers, tourists or returning residents as part of their personal baggage.
"The bird flu virus can be killed by cooking. However, eating poultry products from infested countries like China means exposing the country to the avian flu virus. It also virtually condones smuggling," he added.
Meat products seized
The DA has recently confiscated some 23 metric tons of meat products from China, including Peking duck, quartered chicken legs, pigeon, frozen pork products and suckling pig from a Quezon City warehouse. The products are themselves, carriers of the virus that can be transferred to poultry, livestock and even humans, Drilon said.
Agriculture Secretary Arthur C. Yap said the Bureau of Animal Industry and the National Meat Inspection Service would confiscate all Peking duck and poultry products sold in supermarkets and restaurants coming from China and other infected countries.
Watch out before taking a bite of duck
First posted 11:38pm (Mla time) June 08, 2005
By Christine Gaylican
Inquirer News Service
THE DEPARTMENT of Agriculture has warned the public and restaurant owners about serving Peking ducks that could be infected with the avian flu virus.
"The ongoing Peking Duck Festival at the Eastwood Libis offering a 50 percent discount on Peking duck purchases is an insult to our efforts to protect the country from the entry of bird flu and smuggling.
Consumers are at risk," said Agriculture Undersecretary Cesar Drilon in a forum Wednesday with officials and members of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Filipino-Chinese Chamber of Commerce Inc.
Ban not lifted
Drilon reiterated that the agency had not lifted the ban on imported poultry and pork products from China since May 2001.
The ducks make their way to Chinese restaurants through smugglers, tourists or returning residents as part of their personal baggage.
"The bird flu virus can be killed by cooking. However, eating poultry products from infested countries like China means exposing the country to the avian flu virus. It also virtually condones smuggling," he added.
Meat products seized
The DA has recently confiscated some 23 metric tons of meat products from China, including Peking duck, quartered chicken legs, pigeon, frozen pork products and suckling pig from a Quezon City warehouse. The products are themselves, carriers of the virus that can be transferred to poultry, livestock and even humans, Drilon said.
Agriculture Secretary Arthur C. Yap said the Bureau of Animal Industry and the National Meat Inspection Service would confiscate all Peking duck and poultry products sold in supermarkets and restaurants coming from China and other infected countries.
Vietnam confirms three additional bird flu cases
Canadian Press
TORONTO — Vietnam's ministry of health has provided the World Health Organization with confirmation of an additional three human cases of avian influenza, cases that date back weeks, the Geneva-based agency announced Wednesday.
The three cases -- including one death -- are not new infections, Dr. Klaus Stohr, director of the WHO's global influenza program said. WHO had already included them in unofficial tallies it compiles based on a variety of non-governmental sources.
"We had a difference of three cases between what we had been officially notified of by the government from Vietnam and our own counting, because we use every possible source of information," Stohr said from Geneva.
The most recent of the cases dates back to April 26.
The current wave of infections with the H5N1 virus, which began in mid-December, has seen 52 human cases occur in Vietnam. Of those, 18 people have died and two remain in hospital. This wave has also seen four cases -- all fatal -- in Cambodia.
Vietnamese authorities did not provide WHO with any clinical information about the cases, leaving it unclear in which part of the country they occurred, whether they were part of a cluster or were individual cases and what their probable source of infection was.
"All that we know is three more cases," said Stohr, who insisted more rapid and thorough reporting is needed.
"I think what we all want is ... no more cases. But if there are cases, we want them reported promptly and investigated immediately to allow prompt risk assessment."
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/1118281502129_113690702/?hub=Health
Canadian Press
TORONTO — Vietnam's ministry of health has provided the World Health Organization with confirmation of an additional three human cases of avian influenza, cases that date back weeks, the Geneva-based agency announced Wednesday.
The three cases -- including one death -- are not new infections, Dr. Klaus Stohr, director of the WHO's global influenza program said. WHO had already included them in unofficial tallies it compiles based on a variety of non-governmental sources.
"We had a difference of three cases between what we had been officially notified of by the government from Vietnam and our own counting, because we use every possible source of information," Stohr said from Geneva.
The most recent of the cases dates back to April 26.
The current wave of infections with the H5N1 virus, which began in mid-December, has seen 52 human cases occur in Vietnam. Of those, 18 people have died and two remain in hospital. This wave has also seen four cases -- all fatal -- in Cambodia.
Vietnamese authorities did not provide WHO with any clinical information about the cases, leaving it unclear in which part of the country they occurred, whether they were part of a cluster or were individual cases and what their probable source of infection was.
"All that we know is three more cases," said Stohr, who insisted more rapid and thorough reporting is needed.
"I think what we all want is ... no more cases. But if there are cases, we want them reported promptly and investigated immediately to allow prompt risk assessment."
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/1118281502129_113690702/?hub=Health
In Ro de Janeiro, a man asked medical student Ciro Viera Da Cunha, who was waiting for a streetcar, for information in a perfectly normal voice, then fell down dead; in Cape Town, South Africa, Charles Lewis boarded a street car for a three- mile trip home when the conductore collapsed dead. In the next three miles six people aboard the streetcar died, including the driver.
Lewis stepped off the streetcar and walked home.
The plague of the Spanish Lady
Th influenza Pandemic of 1918-1919
Richard Collier
Lewis stepped off the streetcar and walked home.
The plague of the Spanish Lady
Th influenza Pandemic of 1918-1919
Richard Collier
China discovers bird flu at Xinjiang farm - Hong Kong
Wed Jun 8, 2005 10:41 PM ET
HONG KONG (Reuters) - China has discovered a strain of bird flu that is deadly to humans in geese at a farm in the far western region of Xinjiang and slaughtered over 13,000 birds to curb its spread, the Hong Kong government said.
Hundreds of dead geese were found on the farm in Tacheng and many others showed signs of illness, the government said in a statement late on Wednesday night. Tests showed the cases were caused by the H5N1 virus.
H5N1 first surfaced in poultry in Hong Kong and China eight years ago and has killed at least 37 people in Vietnam, 12 in Thailand and four in Cambodia since it swept across large parts of Asia in 2003.
China, which has reported bird flu outbreaks in wild geese in several western provinces, notified Hong Kong about the latest discovery on Wednesday afternoon. Poultry were culled within the infected area and birds were vaccinated at all poultry farms nearby.
Hong Kong said it would step up surveillance of local farms and retail markets for any irregularities among the poultry population. The city, which gets much of its food from China, has not imported any live birds or poultry meat from Xinjiang but as a precaution mainland authorities have suspended any such sales to the territory.
Scientists fear that avian flu, which is infectious in birds but does not spread easily among humans, could mutate into a form better able to pass from animals to people, possibly triggering a global flu pandemic.
Scientists say such a pandemic would likely start in Asia and could kill millions and result in devastating economic losses.
http://www.reuters.com/printerFriendlyPopup.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=8738505
Wed Jun 8, 2005 10:41 PM ET
HONG KONG (Reuters) - China has discovered a strain of bird flu that is deadly to humans in geese at a farm in the far western region of Xinjiang and slaughtered over 13,000 birds to curb its spread, the Hong Kong government said.
Hundreds of dead geese were found on the farm in Tacheng and many others showed signs of illness, the government said in a statement late on Wednesday night. Tests showed the cases were caused by the H5N1 virus.
H5N1 first surfaced in poultry in Hong Kong and China eight years ago and has killed at least 37 people in Vietnam, 12 in Thailand and four in Cambodia since it swept across large parts of Asia in 2003.
China, which has reported bird flu outbreaks in wild geese in several western provinces, notified Hong Kong about the latest discovery on Wednesday afternoon. Poultry were culled within the infected area and birds were vaccinated at all poultry farms nearby.
Hong Kong said it would step up surveillance of local farms and retail markets for any irregularities among the poultry population. The city, which gets much of its food from China, has not imported any live birds or poultry meat from Xinjiang but as a precaution mainland authorities have suspended any such sales to the territory.
Scientists fear that avian flu, which is infectious in birds but does not spread easily among humans, could mutate into a form better able to pass from animals to people, possibly triggering a global flu pandemic.
Scientists say such a pandemic would likely start in Asia and could kill millions and result in devastating economic losses.
http://www.reuters.com/printerFriendlyPopup.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=8738505
In Proceedings of the Royal Society of medicine, a British physician noted "one thing I have never see before--namely the occurrence of subcutaneous emphysema"--pockets of air accumulating just beneath the skin-"beginning in the neck and sometimes spreading over the whole body.
These pockets of air leaking through ruptured lungs made patients crackle when they were rolled on their sides. One navy nurse later compared the sound to a bowl of rice crispies, and the memory of that sound was so vivid to her that for the rest of her life she could not tolerate being around anyone who was eating rice crispies.
The Great Influenza
John M. Barry
These pockets of air leaking through ruptured lungs made patients crackle when they were rolled on their sides. One navy nurse later compared the sound to a bowl of rice crispies, and the memory of that sound was so vivid to her that for the rest of her life she could not tolerate being around anyone who was eating rice crispies.
The Great Influenza
John M. Barry
Kim99
Veteran Member
UNDIAGNOSED DEATHS, SHEEP - MONGOLIA (GOBI): REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
************************************************** ******************
A ProMED-mail post
<http://www.promedmail.org>
ProMED-mail is a program of the
International Society for Infectious Diseases
<http://www.isid.org>
Date: Wed, 8 Jun 2005
From: ProMED-mail<promed@promedmail.org>
Source: Boxun / Ulan Bator News, 7 Jun 2005 [edited]
<http://world.altavista.com/babelfis...&trurl=http:%
2f%2fwww.peacehall.com%2fnews%2fgb%2fintl%2f2005%2 f06%2f200506072036.shtml>
On 7 Jun 2005 the Mongolian Emergency Bureau announced that in 2 counties in
the Mongolian province of Gobi more than 400 sheep have died since the
beginning of the month [June 2005] from an as-yet-undiagnosed disease. These
areas have already started to take protective measures.
New China.net reported that the Mongolian Emergency Bureau spokesperson said
that since the beginning of the month in the 2 counties, sheep in a number of
household flocks had developed fever, lost their appetites, and progressively
declined until after some 23 days [sic] one after another died. At present
more than 20 flocks of sheep have been detected with this condition, but the
cause is still unknown.
The bureau spokesperson said that the bureau has sent out a work team to carry
out an investigation. To date they have confirmed that it is not anthrax. It
is estimated that it will take several more days to determine the cause or
causes of this problem. The proper authorities have declared martial law and
strict quarantine in the affected areas, stopping all movement of livestock,
people, and vehicles, with the objective of limiting disease spread. The work
team is examining the dead animals and inspecting other domestic livestock,
taking whatever protective measures they can.
Mongolia is a large country that depends on livestock for its prosperity and
retains a traditional and seasonal migratory pattern of grazing. Mongolia at
present has some 28 million head of domestic livestock, with the majority
being sheep and goats.
--
ProMED-mail
<promed@promedmail.org>
Found this on Curevents
************************************************** ******************
A ProMED-mail post
<http://www.promedmail.org>
ProMED-mail is a program of the
International Society for Infectious Diseases
<http://www.isid.org>
Date: Wed, 8 Jun 2005
From: ProMED-mail<promed@promedmail.org>
Source: Boxun / Ulan Bator News, 7 Jun 2005 [edited]
<http://world.altavista.com/babelfis...&trurl=http:%
2f%2fwww.peacehall.com%2fnews%2fgb%2fintl%2f2005%2 f06%2f200506072036.shtml>
On 7 Jun 2005 the Mongolian Emergency Bureau announced that in 2 counties in
the Mongolian province of Gobi more than 400 sheep have died since the
beginning of the month [June 2005] from an as-yet-undiagnosed disease. These
areas have already started to take protective measures.
New China.net reported that the Mongolian Emergency Bureau spokesperson said
that since the beginning of the month in the 2 counties, sheep in a number of
household flocks had developed fever, lost their appetites, and progressively
declined until after some 23 days [sic] one after another died. At present
more than 20 flocks of sheep have been detected with this condition, but the
cause is still unknown.
The bureau spokesperson said that the bureau has sent out a work team to carry
out an investigation. To date they have confirmed that it is not anthrax. It
is estimated that it will take several more days to determine the cause or
causes of this problem. The proper authorities have declared martial law and
strict quarantine in the affected areas, stopping all movement of livestock,
people, and vehicles, with the objective of limiting disease spread. The work
team is examining the dead animals and inspecting other domestic livestock,
taking whatever protective measures they can.
Mongolia is a large country that depends on livestock for its prosperity and
retains a traditional and seasonal migratory pattern of grazing. Mongolia at
present has some 28 million head of domestic livestock, with the majority
being sheep and goats.
--
ProMED-mail
<promed@promedmail.org>
Found this on Curevents
The Flying Dutchman
Inactive
-
<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>H5N1 Spread to Tibet Via Migratory Birds?</font>
Recombinomics Commentary
June 8, 2005
>> China's Ministry of Agriculture informed Hong Kong that it culled more than 13,000 geese at a farm in Xinjiang after discovering that about 460 had died from the H5N1 avian flu virus strain and another 582 were sick, the Hong Kong government said in a statement late Wednesday.</B></center>
Officials in Xinjiang have carried out vaccinations at all nearby poultry farms and the situation is under control, the statement said.
Fears of bird flu in China were rekindled after Beijing reported in late May that more than 1,000 wild birds, including geese and gulls, were killed by the H5N1 bird flu strain in Qinghai, another western province. But authorities said it was an isolated outbreak. <<
The above report is leaving out key nuances that keep the China statements factually correct, but misleading. The notification of the outbreak in Xinjiang autonomous region, Tacheng district, Tacheng city was made available to the world today via a publicly accessible OIE report. The report had all of the specifics mentioned in the Hong Kong announcement.
Based on the timing and testing detailed in today's report, China knew about Xinjiang when they held press conferences following the May 21 OIE report on 519 wild bird deaths in Gangcha County, Quinghai province. In the news conference they indicated over 1000 birds had died, but defined an isolated outbreak by the lack of infections in Qinghai Province. Thus, the infected geese in Xinjiang were not included in their definition of "isolated outbreak".
They also announced a mandatory vaccination program for Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Tibet suggesting additional H5N1 cases have been discovered, but not reported in Tibet. Since the two reported outbreaks were almost 1000 miles apart, infected migratory birds are almost certainly north and west of Tacheng, which is on the border with Kazhakstan and just south of borders with Mongolia and Russia, two additional locations where bar-headed geese nest and rest in the spring and summer.
The latest outbreak may be considered isolated because it is in a remote location, but it seems quite unlikely that the H5N1 infections will be limited to the two reported locations. Based on te timing of the latest announcement, it seems likely that H5N1 has already been exported to the three countries within 100 miles of Techeng.
<A href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06080506/H5N1_Migration_Tibet.html">(LINK)</A>
<B><font size=+1 color=blue><center>H5N1 Spread to Tibet Via Migratory Birds?</font>
Recombinomics Commentary
June 8, 2005
>> China's Ministry of Agriculture informed Hong Kong that it culled more than 13,000 geese at a farm in Xinjiang after discovering that about 460 had died from the H5N1 avian flu virus strain and another 582 were sick, the Hong Kong government said in a statement late Wednesday.</B></center>
Officials in Xinjiang have carried out vaccinations at all nearby poultry farms and the situation is under control, the statement said.
Fears of bird flu in China were rekindled after Beijing reported in late May that more than 1,000 wild birds, including geese and gulls, were killed by the H5N1 bird flu strain in Qinghai, another western province. But authorities said it was an isolated outbreak. <<
The above report is leaving out key nuances that keep the China statements factually correct, but misleading. The notification of the outbreak in Xinjiang autonomous region, Tacheng district, Tacheng city was made available to the world today via a publicly accessible OIE report. The report had all of the specifics mentioned in the Hong Kong announcement.
Based on the timing and testing detailed in today's report, China knew about Xinjiang when they held press conferences following the May 21 OIE report on 519 wild bird deaths in Gangcha County, Quinghai province. In the news conference they indicated over 1000 birds had died, but defined an isolated outbreak by the lack of infections in Qinghai Province. Thus, the infected geese in Xinjiang were not included in their definition of "isolated outbreak".
They also announced a mandatory vaccination program for Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Tibet suggesting additional H5N1 cases have been discovered, but not reported in Tibet. Since the two reported outbreaks were almost 1000 miles apart, infected migratory birds are almost certainly north and west of Tacheng, which is on the border with Kazhakstan and just south of borders with Mongolia and Russia, two additional locations where bar-headed geese nest and rest in the spring and summer.
The latest outbreak may be considered isolated because it is in a remote location, but it seems quite unlikely that the H5N1 infections will be limited to the two reported locations. Based on te timing of the latest announcement, it seems likely that H5N1 has already been exported to the three countries within 100 miles of Techeng.
<A href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06080506/H5N1_Migration_Tibet.html">(LINK)</A>
H5N1 Killing Crows in Mumbai India?
Recombinomics Commentary
June 9, 2005
>> POST MORTEM findings on the specimens:
Collapsed lungs, hemorrhagic lesions in trachea, sinuses filled with hemorrhagic matter.
Hemorrhagic lesions in muscles of thigh and sternum; bones poorly calcified
Congested liver, with streaks of hemorrhages; brain, intestines too hemorrhagic;
DIAGNOSIS: The lesions suggestive of immunocompetence, and it is suggested may be seen in viral diseases like infectious bursal disease and may be complicated with aflatoxins.
But more detail virological tests needed.
SOME PECULIAR OBSERVATIONS:
Drooping head symptom was noticed/reported 20 times, incl by one observer from South Mumbai.
On two occasions someone reported a crow dying in front of their eyes and one observer reported sudden death of his 'pet'crow, just dropping dead for no apparent reason. <<
The description above of dying crows in Mumbai, India sound much like H5N1 avian influenza. Hemorrhagic lesions thoughout respiratory system and brain, coupled with sudden death is common for H5N1 infections in birds.
China has reported two H5N1 bird flu outbreaks recently. The first OIE report of 519 H5N1 deaths centered on bar-headed geese found at the Qinghai lake Nature Reserve. 4 additional species were also found dead. At a news conference a few days later, the number of dead birds was increased to over 1000 and a followup report by Abundant News detailed over 8000 deaths, including 12 species.
Yesterday China reported another outbreak in Tacheng in Xinjiang Province. Tacheng is almost 1000 miles northwest of Qinghai Lake and about 1800 miles northeast of Mumbai. Bar-headed geese winter in the northern plains of India and fly north in May and June to China and southern Russia. However, the Central South Asia flyway includes all of India and banded bar-headed geese from Qinghai lake have been found in southern India.
The two outbreaks in China demonstrate the wide range of migratory birds, especially in May and June while they are migrating. Recently India reported H5N1 positive poultry workers serum collected in 2002. H5N1 has not been previously reported in India, but the H5N1 positive poultry workers had not raveled outside of India. Recently India has also had outbreaks of meningitis in northern regions. Meningitis is a complication of influenza.
H5N1 was isoalted from crows in Osaka, Kyoto and Bangkok last season. Clearly the dead crows in Mumbai, India should be tested for the same H5N1 being detected in birds in Qinghai and Xinjiang Provinces in China.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06090501/H5N1_Crows_India.html
Recombinomics Commentary
June 9, 2005
>> POST MORTEM findings on the specimens:
Collapsed lungs, hemorrhagic lesions in trachea, sinuses filled with hemorrhagic matter.
Hemorrhagic lesions in muscles of thigh and sternum; bones poorly calcified
Congested liver, with streaks of hemorrhages; brain, intestines too hemorrhagic;
DIAGNOSIS: The lesions suggestive of immunocompetence, and it is suggested may be seen in viral diseases like infectious bursal disease and may be complicated with aflatoxins.
But more detail virological tests needed.
SOME PECULIAR OBSERVATIONS:
Drooping head symptom was noticed/reported 20 times, incl by one observer from South Mumbai.
On two occasions someone reported a crow dying in front of their eyes and one observer reported sudden death of his 'pet'crow, just dropping dead for no apparent reason. <<
The description above of dying crows in Mumbai, India sound much like H5N1 avian influenza. Hemorrhagic lesions thoughout respiratory system and brain, coupled with sudden death is common for H5N1 infections in birds.
China has reported two H5N1 bird flu outbreaks recently. The first OIE report of 519 H5N1 deaths centered on bar-headed geese found at the Qinghai lake Nature Reserve. 4 additional species were also found dead. At a news conference a few days later, the number of dead birds was increased to over 1000 and a followup report by Abundant News detailed over 8000 deaths, including 12 species.
Yesterday China reported another outbreak in Tacheng in Xinjiang Province. Tacheng is almost 1000 miles northwest of Qinghai Lake and about 1800 miles northeast of Mumbai. Bar-headed geese winter in the northern plains of India and fly north in May and June to China and southern Russia. However, the Central South Asia flyway includes all of India and banded bar-headed geese from Qinghai lake have been found in southern India.
The two outbreaks in China demonstrate the wide range of migratory birds, especially in May and June while they are migrating. Recently India reported H5N1 positive poultry workers serum collected in 2002. H5N1 has not been previously reported in India, but the H5N1 positive poultry workers had not raveled outside of India. Recently India has also had outbreaks of meningitis in northern regions. Meningitis is a complication of influenza.
H5N1 was isoalted from crows in Osaka, Kyoto and Bangkok last season. Clearly the dead crows in Mumbai, India should be tested for the same H5N1 being detected in birds in Qinghai and Xinjiang Provinces in China.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06090501/H5N1_Crows_India.html
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200506/s1388783.htm]
Last Update: Thursday, June 9, 2005. 7:15pm (AEST)
Hong Kong is on alert for bird flu. (File photo) (Reuters/China Photo)
Hong Kong on bird flu watch
Hong Kong has announced it is stepping up its surveillance of poultry farms, after an outbreak of a deadly strain of bird flu was confirmed in a province in western China.
Officials in Hong Kong say Chinese authorities told them about the outbreak of the H5N1 strain among geese in the north-western Xinjiang region.
More than 1,000 geese showed signs of the illness; about half died. About 13,000 birds were culled in the area and more were vaccinated.
The Chinese say the outbreak is under control.
The outbreak in Xinjiang follows the deaths of more than 1,000 migratory birds last month in Qinghai, south-east of Xinjiang.
That was the first confirmed H5N1 outbreak in China in nearly a year.
At that time, a Chinese veterinary official said that the disease was spreading along a migratory bird route that stretched from south Asia to central Asia and over the Himalayas through the Tibet and Qinghai regions.
Xinjiang and Qinghai border Tibet.
The H5N1 virus has been fingered as a possible new strain of flu that could be devastating to humans if it genetically mutates and develops the capacity to be transmitted from human to human.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that if this happens it could trigger a new human flu pandemic, potentially killing up to 50 million people worldwide.
So far, a total of 54 deaths have been recorded from H5N1 in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia.
Last Update: Thursday, June 9, 2005. 7:15pm (AEST)
Hong Kong is on alert for bird flu. (File photo) (Reuters/China Photo)
Hong Kong on bird flu watch
Hong Kong has announced it is stepping up its surveillance of poultry farms, after an outbreak of a deadly strain of bird flu was confirmed in a province in western China.
Officials in Hong Kong say Chinese authorities told them about the outbreak of the H5N1 strain among geese in the north-western Xinjiang region.
More than 1,000 geese showed signs of the illness; about half died. About 13,000 birds were culled in the area and more were vaccinated.
The Chinese say the outbreak is under control.
The outbreak in Xinjiang follows the deaths of more than 1,000 migratory birds last month in Qinghai, south-east of Xinjiang.
That was the first confirmed H5N1 outbreak in China in nearly a year.
At that time, a Chinese veterinary official said that the disease was spreading along a migratory bird route that stretched from south Asia to central Asia and over the Himalayas through the Tibet and Qinghai regions.
Xinjiang and Qinghai border Tibet.
The H5N1 virus has been fingered as a possible new strain of flu that could be devastating to humans if it genetically mutates and develops the capacity to be transmitted from human to human.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that if this happens it could trigger a new human flu pandemic, potentially killing up to 50 million people worldwide.
So far, a total of 54 deaths have been recorded from H5N1 in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia.
WHO: Avian Flu Endangering 'More and More Species'
10 June, 2005 14:27 GMT
The only way to safeguard against further outbreaks or worse -- a mutation of the virus into a form easily passed between humans -- is 'heightened vigilance,' says a WHO official.
A top World Health Organization official Friday warned that the avian flu virus is evolving quickly and urged heightened vigilance because the strain in China appears to have increased in virulence.
Shigeru Omi, the WHO's Western Pacific regional director, said two outbreaks in China's remote west in the past month have killed large numbers of species of birds that had previously been relatively resilient to the disease.
"The outbreaks indicate that the virus has become highly pathogenic to more and more species," he told a news conference.
"The virus remains unstable, unpredictable and very versatile," he said.
Behaving Differently in China and Vietnam
Omi said the H5N1 virus is behaving differently in China and Vietnam. China has reported no human cases of bird flu; Vietnam has had 38 of Asia's 54 human deaths.
But the cases in Vietnam appear to be becoming less deadly, with fatality rates dropping from 60 to 70 percent last year, to about 10 to 20 percent in 2005, Omi said. Vietnam has also seen more cases where people are infected but don't develop symptoms.
"Anything could happen," he said. "Judging from the way the virus has behaved, it may have new and unpleasant surprises in store for us."
The only way to safeguard against further outbreaks or worse -- a mutation of the virus into a form easily passed between humans -- is "heightened vigilance," he said.
"Our work remains urgent," Omi said.
That means it's imperative for countries to share information, research and samples from their outbreaks with international agencies to strengthen efforts to fight the disease, he said.
Countries also need to strengthen their preparations, which include improved vaccine development and making anti-viral drugs available, Omi said.
Sharing Samples Is Very Critical
Beijing has in the past been criticized for its reluctance to release information on its outbreaks.
Omi said the WHO is looking forward to getting samples from China because "sharing samples is very critical."
WHO officials said they were waiting for Beijing to approve a trip with Chinese health officials to Qinghai province, where more than 1,000 wild birds, including geese and gulls, were killed by the H5N1 flu strain in late May.
Gao Qiang, China's health minister, told reporters in Hong Kong that WHO teams would be free to visit infected areas.
"During the 2003 SARS outbreak, WHO experts were able to go wherever they wanted. And with bird flu, there's no place they can't go," Gao said.
On Thursday, the Agriculture Ministry confirmed a second outbreak of bird flu in the Xinjiang region.
It said it had culled more than 13,000 geese at a farm after discovering that about 460 had died from the virus.
China said both outbreaks appeared to be isolated incidents, with the case in Qinghai possibly carried there by migrating birds.
http://health.dailynewscentral.com/index2.php?option=content&task=view&id=0001021&pop=1&page=0
10 June, 2005 14:27 GMT
The only way to safeguard against further outbreaks or worse -- a mutation of the virus into a form easily passed between humans -- is 'heightened vigilance,' says a WHO official.
A top World Health Organization official Friday warned that the avian flu virus is evolving quickly and urged heightened vigilance because the strain in China appears to have increased in virulence.
Shigeru Omi, the WHO's Western Pacific regional director, said two outbreaks in China's remote west in the past month have killed large numbers of species of birds that had previously been relatively resilient to the disease.
"The outbreaks indicate that the virus has become highly pathogenic to more and more species," he told a news conference.
"The virus remains unstable, unpredictable and very versatile," he said.
Behaving Differently in China and Vietnam
Omi said the H5N1 virus is behaving differently in China and Vietnam. China has reported no human cases of bird flu; Vietnam has had 38 of Asia's 54 human deaths.
But the cases in Vietnam appear to be becoming less deadly, with fatality rates dropping from 60 to 70 percent last year, to about 10 to 20 percent in 2005, Omi said. Vietnam has also seen more cases where people are infected but don't develop symptoms.
"Anything could happen," he said. "Judging from the way the virus has behaved, it may have new and unpleasant surprises in store for us."
The only way to safeguard against further outbreaks or worse -- a mutation of the virus into a form easily passed between humans -- is "heightened vigilance," he said.
"Our work remains urgent," Omi said.
That means it's imperative for countries to share information, research and samples from their outbreaks with international agencies to strengthen efforts to fight the disease, he said.
Countries also need to strengthen their preparations, which include improved vaccine development and making anti-viral drugs available, Omi said.
Sharing Samples Is Very Critical
Beijing has in the past been criticized for its reluctance to release information on its outbreaks.
Omi said the WHO is looking forward to getting samples from China because "sharing samples is very critical."
WHO officials said they were waiting for Beijing to approve a trip with Chinese health officials to Qinghai province, where more than 1,000 wild birds, including geese and gulls, were killed by the H5N1 flu strain in late May.
Gao Qiang, China's health minister, told reporters in Hong Kong that WHO teams would be free to visit infected areas.
"During the 2003 SARS outbreak, WHO experts were able to go wherever they wanted. And with bird flu, there's no place they can't go," Gao said.
On Thursday, the Agriculture Ministry confirmed a second outbreak of bird flu in the Xinjiang region.
It said it had culled more than 13,000 geese at a farm after discovering that about 460 had died from the virus.
China said both outbreaks appeared to be isolated incidents, with the case in Qinghai possibly carried there by migrating birds.
http://health.dailynewscentral.com/index2.php?option=content&task=view&id=0001021&pop=1&page=0
R
ReadyAngel
Guest
RE: H5N1 human deaths in China-this may be it folks
I wanted to post a word of thanks Martin for posting the latest news on this every day. Definitely something is going on with all the species of birds being affected. I check in for a dose of reality.
I wanted to post a word of thanks Martin for posting the latest news on this every day. Definitely something is going on with all the species of birds being affected. I check in for a dose of reality.
Brunei Refutes Wire Report On Bird Flu
By M K Anwar
Bandar Seri Begawan - The Department of Agriculture, Ministry of Industry and Primary Resources would like to announce that Brunei Darussalam has been and is free from Avian Flu.
This is in response to the foreign wire services that have reported the occurrence of bird flu in the country yesterday following an operation that was implemented by the department.
The public was also informed that the operation was only an "exercise" or a "dry run" that was conducted to measure the competence of the team to combat any occurrence of this disease.
It was part of an Action Plan set up by the Department of Agriculture of the Ministry of Industry and Primary Resources as well as other ministries and departments.
A foreign wire service news agency yesterday reported that Brunei had its first case of bird flu and that 100 chickens were culled.
The news had been retracted and withdrawn, saying that it was part of a government test exercise.
The exercise on Thursday morning also caused confusion and panic among the public. The operation was mentioned in the radio the same morning but the scope of the operation and involvement by different government agencies led many to believe that it was real. Many also called the Weekend
Bulletin reporting a massive number of chickens found `dead' in a farm.
A statement from the Department of Agriculture stated that the department is always monitoring chicken farms in Brunei to ensure that Good Farm Practices are being carried out and samples are always taken for bacterial and virus analysis.
The department has also prohibited the import of chicken or birds as well as its products from affected countries and high-risk areas to prevent any possibility of the virus from emerging here. -- Courtesy of Borneo Bulletin
http://www.brudirect.com/DailyInfo/News/Archive/June05/110605/nite06.htm
By M K Anwar
Bandar Seri Begawan - The Department of Agriculture, Ministry of Industry and Primary Resources would like to announce that Brunei Darussalam has been and is free from Avian Flu.
This is in response to the foreign wire services that have reported the occurrence of bird flu in the country yesterday following an operation that was implemented by the department.
The public was also informed that the operation was only an "exercise" or a "dry run" that was conducted to measure the competence of the team to combat any occurrence of this disease.
It was part of an Action Plan set up by the Department of Agriculture of the Ministry of Industry and Primary Resources as well as other ministries and departments.
A foreign wire service news agency yesterday reported that Brunei had its first case of bird flu and that 100 chickens were culled.
The news had been retracted and withdrawn, saying that it was part of a government test exercise.
The exercise on Thursday morning also caused confusion and panic among the public. The operation was mentioned in the radio the same morning but the scope of the operation and involvement by different government agencies led many to believe that it was real. Many also called the Weekend
Bulletin reporting a massive number of chickens found `dead' in a farm.
A statement from the Department of Agriculture stated that the department is always monitoring chicken farms in Brunei to ensure that Good Farm Practices are being carried out and samples are always taken for bacterial and virus analysis.
The department has also prohibited the import of chicken or birds as well as its products from affected countries and high-risk areas to prevent any possibility of the virus from emerging here. -- Courtesy of Borneo Bulletin
http://www.brudirect.com/DailyInfo/News/Archive/June05/110605/nite06.htm
Bird flu moving in new, unpredictable ways
Keep vigilance high against deadly outbreaks, officials warn
Reuters
Updated: 7:26 a.m. ET June 10, 2005
BEIJING - The World Health Organization urged vigilance against a deadly strain of bird flu on Friday, warning that the disease scientists say could cause a global pandemic was moving in new and unpredictable ways.
Shigeru Omi, the WHO’s Asia director, made the comments in Beijing a day after China said it had discovered the H5N1 strain of bird flu in the far western province of Xinjiang, its second outbreak in as many months.
“All of this shows the virus remains unstable, unpredictable and very versatile,” Omi told a news conference.“It may have new and unpleasant surprises in store for all of us.”
Avian flu is highly infectious in birds and does not spread easily in humans, but scientists fear it could mutate into a form better able to pass from animals to people, possibly triggering a pandemic that they say would likely start in Asia.
H5N1 first surfaced in poultry in Hong Kong and China eight years ago and has killed at least 37 people in Vietnam, 12 in Thailand and four in Cambodia.
Difficult to predict
Omi said the virus appeared to be moving in different ways in different places, apparently becoming more transmissible but less fatal in Vietnam while becoming more pathogenic in China.
“It is very difficult to predict what will happen under these circumstances, but the best thing I can say is to keep our vigilance high,” he said.
There were at least two cases, in Thailand and Vietnam, where the disease was likely to have passed between humans, Omi said, but added “there is no evidence for effective human to human transmission yet”.
Sharing information, making virus samples available to WHO laboratories and improving animal husbandry practices were all key to preventing a pandemic, Omi said.
But the disease usually appears in rural areas where surveillance is harder and involves both health and agriculture sectors, making a coordinated response a challenge.
Outbreak in China
The World Health Organization was still awaiting a response from China on its proposed joint mission to affected sites, but said it was satisfied with Beijing’s response to the outbreaks.
“The China authorities are very serious about avian influenza. Their response has been very strong,” WHO representative Hank Bekedam said.
China said the outbreak in domestic poultry in a far northwestern part of Xinjiang had been brought under control through a combination of culling, quarantines and vaccination.
The government “ordered all the poultry markets in Tacheng City to be closed down and had 17,014 birds slaughtered in the affected area, most of them chickens and geese,” the official Xinhua news agency reported.
“Roads to the affected area have been blocked and traffic has been closed,” it said.
Last month China reported an outbreak in wild birds in the northwestern province of Qinghai, prompting an extensive vaccination campaign.
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/8168321/print/1/displaymode/1098/
Keep vigilance high against deadly outbreaks, officials warn
Reuters
Updated: 7:26 a.m. ET June 10, 2005
BEIJING - The World Health Organization urged vigilance against a deadly strain of bird flu on Friday, warning that the disease scientists say could cause a global pandemic was moving in new and unpredictable ways.
Shigeru Omi, the WHO’s Asia director, made the comments in Beijing a day after China said it had discovered the H5N1 strain of bird flu in the far western province of Xinjiang, its second outbreak in as many months.
“All of this shows the virus remains unstable, unpredictable and very versatile,” Omi told a news conference.“It may have new and unpleasant surprises in store for all of us.”
Avian flu is highly infectious in birds and does not spread easily in humans, but scientists fear it could mutate into a form better able to pass from animals to people, possibly triggering a pandemic that they say would likely start in Asia.
H5N1 first surfaced in poultry in Hong Kong and China eight years ago and has killed at least 37 people in Vietnam, 12 in Thailand and four in Cambodia.
Difficult to predict
Omi said the virus appeared to be moving in different ways in different places, apparently becoming more transmissible but less fatal in Vietnam while becoming more pathogenic in China.
“It is very difficult to predict what will happen under these circumstances, but the best thing I can say is to keep our vigilance high,” he said.
There were at least two cases, in Thailand and Vietnam, where the disease was likely to have passed between humans, Omi said, but added “there is no evidence for effective human to human transmission yet”.
Sharing information, making virus samples available to WHO laboratories and improving animal husbandry practices were all key to preventing a pandemic, Omi said.
But the disease usually appears in rural areas where surveillance is harder and involves both health and agriculture sectors, making a coordinated response a challenge.
Outbreak in China
The World Health Organization was still awaiting a response from China on its proposed joint mission to affected sites, but said it was satisfied with Beijing’s response to the outbreaks.
“The China authorities are very serious about avian influenza. Their response has been very strong,” WHO representative Hank Bekedam said.
China said the outbreak in domestic poultry in a far northwestern part of Xinjiang had been brought under control through a combination of culling, quarantines and vaccination.
The government “ordered all the poultry markets in Tacheng City to be closed down and had 17,014 birds slaughtered in the affected area, most of them chickens and geese,” the official Xinhua news agency reported.
“Roads to the affected area have been blocked and traffic has been closed,” it said.
Last month China reported an outbreak in wild birds in the northwestern province of Qinghai, prompting an extensive vaccination campaign.
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/8168321/print/1/displaymode/1098/
Bird Flu in Tacheng Highly Pathogenic for Geese and Chickens
Recombinomics Commentary
June 10, 2005
>> On June 1, geese death was reported at a backyard farm 32 kilometers from the city proper of Tacheng. Three days later, the national bird flu reference laboratory confirmed the death to be caused by a deadly H5N1 strain of the bird flu virus. The number of geese infected totaled 1,042, 460 of which have died, Chen said.
The governments of Tacheng prefecture and Tacheng city have ordered all the poultry markets in Tacheng City to be closed down and had 17,014 birds slaughtered in the affected area, most of them chickens and geese. Roads to the affected area have been blocked and traffic has been closed. <<
The above dates, if accurate, would indicate the H5N1 bird flu in Tacheng is very pathogenic to chickens. In the OIE report dated June 8, the H5N1 was said to be highly pathogenic based on two assays. One assay sequences the HA cleavage site while the other involves injecting new virus into test chickens and observing the chickens for 10 days for signs of illness or death. The testing was done at the Harbin facility which is on the eastern side of China while Tacheng is a border town within a few miles of the west border share with Kazakhstan.
To perform the 10 day test the samples would have to be collected in Tacheng, shipped to Harbin. Next the virus would be isolated from the bird samples and then grown in chicken eggs. Fluid from the eggs would then be tested to get a viral titer and then diluted to the appropriate concentration and injected into eight chickens. Those chickens would then be observed for 10 days.
Since the first reported goose death was June 1 based on the above report (the date of onset was left blank in the original report submitted to OIE), it would take several days to prepare the virus for the biological assay. Since the report was publicly available on June 8, the determination of lethality in chickens was made in less than the 10 day observation period (the report indicates it was completed June 7), indicating the H5N1 killed the chickens very quickly.
The geese also died quickly since almost half of the flock was infected and half of the infected birds had already died. The closing of poultry markets and the additional culling also suggests the H5N1 is quite lethal. The June 8 report indicated 13,457 birds had been culled, so an additional 3,557 birds have been culled.
H5N1 is usually not lethal in geese. China has now filed two OIE reports within the past 19 days detailing large die offs of migratory and domestic geese. These changes in H5N1 point to increased instability, which is driven by recombination between H5N1 genomes.
The gene pool is rapidly increasing in size and diversity, increasing the likelihood of a flu pandemic in the near term.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06100501/H5N1_Tacheng_Lethal.html
Recombinomics Commentary
June 10, 2005
>> On June 1, geese death was reported at a backyard farm 32 kilometers from the city proper of Tacheng. Three days later, the national bird flu reference laboratory confirmed the death to be caused by a deadly H5N1 strain of the bird flu virus. The number of geese infected totaled 1,042, 460 of which have died, Chen said.
The governments of Tacheng prefecture and Tacheng city have ordered all the poultry markets in Tacheng City to be closed down and had 17,014 birds slaughtered in the affected area, most of them chickens and geese. Roads to the affected area have been blocked and traffic has been closed. <<
The above dates, if accurate, would indicate the H5N1 bird flu in Tacheng is very pathogenic to chickens. In the OIE report dated June 8, the H5N1 was said to be highly pathogenic based on two assays. One assay sequences the HA cleavage site while the other involves injecting new virus into test chickens and observing the chickens for 10 days for signs of illness or death. The testing was done at the Harbin facility which is on the eastern side of China while Tacheng is a border town within a few miles of the west border share with Kazakhstan.
To perform the 10 day test the samples would have to be collected in Tacheng, shipped to Harbin. Next the virus would be isolated from the bird samples and then grown in chicken eggs. Fluid from the eggs would then be tested to get a viral titer and then diluted to the appropriate concentration and injected into eight chickens. Those chickens would then be observed for 10 days.
Since the first reported goose death was June 1 based on the above report (the date of onset was left blank in the original report submitted to OIE), it would take several days to prepare the virus for the biological assay. Since the report was publicly available on June 8, the determination of lethality in chickens was made in less than the 10 day observation period (the report indicates it was completed June 7), indicating the H5N1 killed the chickens very quickly.
The geese also died quickly since almost half of the flock was infected and half of the infected birds had already died. The closing of poultry markets and the additional culling also suggests the H5N1 is quite lethal. The June 8 report indicated 13,457 birds had been culled, so an additional 3,557 birds have been culled.
H5N1 is usually not lethal in geese. China has now filed two OIE reports within the past 19 days detailing large die offs of migratory and domestic geese. These changes in H5N1 point to increased instability, which is driven by recombination between H5N1 genomes.
The gene pool is rapidly increasing in size and diversity, increasing the likelihood of a flu pandemic in the near term.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06100501/H5N1_Tacheng_Lethal.html
Just Wondering
Southern Sloth
Reading the rest of the pages on this thread just confirms that reading the media's hysteria about all this, is very bad for a person's health. Not mine though. 
I've long since been immunised against the paranoia of both the medical profession or the media. The best prevention, as CanadaSue said is plain old common sense, nutrition and basic preventive measure, which DO NOT include antivirals or vaccines. Not that there will be one, but never mind...
The problem is Kim, I seem to have been talking to the back of a bus here for many years. There are a few people here who constantly skate on marbles about things, and I constantly repeat stuff I know they know, and at times I get very tired of it. To ramp up hysteria like this simply doesn't help.
So I suppose I could tone it down. But would it get the message through to those people that the biggest problem is themselves, not the flu?
We will all die from something, sometime somewhere. If you want some black humour the best way to think of it is luckily most of us only die once.
Well, that's just not true. Ask people alive then, who remember. My father does. And here, it was the elderly and very very young who were hit the worst, particularly if they were not nursed appropriately.
Secondly, its all very easy for people who weren't there to speculate based on their second guessing, according to the "very best" science as to this, that and the other.
For the very best in science, see the research shwoing Vioxx, Celebrex, and now Ibuprofen to be "safe". I've got past believing a lot of the so-called very best information from infectious disease specialists or immunologists.
The very best, is simply a new guess in order to make new headlines, and add to their CV publication list.
Those who were alive at the time, and in the thick of it, have a different story to tell. Though I suppose doctors today would consider them of "geriatric unsound mind?"
For those here, who believe in prayer, and that God ordains the steps (and the life span) of us all, and that those who follow in his ways will live part of his plan, then there is only one answer after practical common sense and that is prayer.
After all, FEAR is not of God. And if he looks after his children, then we look to Him, not to fear. God doesn't want any of us to be afraid. But Satan does. Because it suits his purposes.
Hey Jesse. It doesn't matter how long these things live. I remember seeing a video of a man who was working in Africa and the docs there were very upset that he'd not had vaccines of any sort. And he made them give him vials of verified live virulent bacteria and viruses, and to hand them to him.
He prayed over each one, and handed each one back to them. When they checked them under the microscopes immediately afterwards, the pathogens were dead.
For those here who are christians, yes, there is a lot to think about. Why do we, as christians, reduce our thinking to man's reductionism? If God is in control, then shouldn't we trust him?
And for those who appreciate end-times teaching, then look at all these predictions from Frist of terrorists and mutating viruses and think about it. Whose behind it? What does it signify? For those with eyes to see, who read the seasons of the times what should it tell us? And what should we be doing about it?
Is sitting here, trembling with fear, talking about gloves, and fomites what God wants us to do? In whom does hope and love reside?
Okay, less esoterically....
In terms of dampening down the immune system, vitamin C is one of the best at doing that as it has a lot of biochmical function, and one of them is in reducing the production of histamine and other free-radicals and chemical reaction than can lead to death. And its the best anti DIC that I know, yet most people have no idea about that (DIC = disseminated intravascular coagulation, or in other words, haemorrhaging, anywhere and everywhere)
It's interesting, because there is a lot on pubmed now, which shows that vitamin C has a huge, fantastic impact in the use of meningitis septicaemia, but do you think doctors are even looking at using it?
No, they would rather sit around and let patients die becuase they can't get that little word "vitamin" out of their mind-sets, and think about it in terms that vitamin C, or sodium ascorbate, might just have other functions in the body than that of a vitamin.
CanadaSue
You do what you can, then get on and enjoy what you can of life.
Nightdriver
It was a specific formulation, only made one, of a unique hybrid, and showed in animal tests to be extremely dangerous.
Anyone who wants to engineer statistics to sanitise the issue will, because the medical profession don't want the Swine Flu Slur to stick.
But the facts, as per the medical research, and original research done, which was given to the Senate committee hearing cannot be refuted by statistical manipulation, or insinuation of a "teleconference...". Though I'm sure that many would try
Martin; Yes, my father when he got the Spanish flu became ill that quick, though obviously he didn't die.
I appreciate the information you are putting up, and that this thread is important. I also know you are a doctor. So if you are concerned about the Meningococcemia / Meningitis overtones, then research the use of vitamin C in sepsis and other meninococcemia conditions. It might save someone's life one day, if you know what to do, because nothing you have to hand, today, will be of much use. Therefore, why not try something we know is safe, and potentially life-saving? It's better than standing there, shaking your head, and "tut-tutting".
I also cannot believe that Dr Lance Jennings, who is the New Zealand expert in Flu, did a huge study on flu and vitamin C, and found that it reduced the severity by over 50%. The study was never published. But he e-mailed a friend of mine the other day, to confirm the research was done.
Yet all he does is espouse vaccines? You have to wonder what the total agenda is.
Martin, I asked my father about the subcutaneous emphysema and noise, and he said that they had heard about that in some countries overseas, but it wasn't a factor in this country. I also wonder about intra country mutations too, and whether there was considerable variation from country to country dependant on the nutritional and other status of the people there....
So not only DIC but obviously the liver isn't coping. A similar but less obvious mechanism to ebola haemorrhagia...
Again, vitamin C. Get in early enough in acute disease with large enough doses, and it should maintain the integrity of all cellular walls. More importantly, keep up your vitamin C intake, and if you get sick increase it immediately, prefereable with Sodium ascorbate, since you won't feel like eating anyway... also put in bioflavinoids and other co-factors. Maybe Rutin... hesperidin... use Sambucol...
Heightened vigilance is good. But the reality is that viruses can't be seen, and watching for them, isn't going to stop their spread, either in birds or amongst people.
Housecard:
And there is something else. I have several friends in the African countries right now, where there is a massive oral polio vaccination campaign becasue of the Nigerian episode.. never mind that these kids have had the vaccine 6 + times already.
They are using ORAL polio vaccine. And the kids are dying like flies and no-one is reporting it, or counting the dead bodies.
Do you know what the live oral polio vaccine does to people with AIDS in africa? Pretty much the same as a flu infection would.
If you rang the USA CDC and asked them if oral polio vaccine should be used in communities with a high level or risk of HIV/AIDS, they will tell you NO, yet the WHO, and all the other organisations think its okay to use oral polio vaccine in Africa. Amazing.
Do the Africans realise any of this? Highly unlikely, since most of the people they are talking about are too busy to keep up with the likes of this board, or big newspapers.
My friends spend their days trying to treat mostly malnourished people with septic wounds from getting sticks in bare feet; tuberculosis gone rampant and AIDS...
The children who die just "go missing". The parents just bury them and tell my friends later on....
Martin
Actually Martin, I disagree. The most deadly human catastrophe to happen to American people happens to the tune of 100,000 deaths every year, according to the 2005, May 19 issue of Journal of the American Medical Association.
And the cause of those deaths isn't flu, or cancer, or pneumonia, its preventable medical error.
Just from 1990, when this issue first started to be discussed, the lowest figure for the total for the 15 years since then, NOT INCLUDING nosocomial infections and drug reactions, is 1, 500,000.
That's a far larger tragedy overall, than the 1918 Spanish Flu.
Oh, and the 36,000 deaths per year in USA from flu figure is incorrect. As I'm sure you know.
The important thing about this subject is to look at it from all angles, and see it in context of a much bigger picture.
I've long since been immunised against the paranoia of both the medical profession or the media. The best prevention, as CanadaSue said is plain old common sense, nutrition and basic preventive measure, which DO NOT include antivirals or vaccines. Not that there will be one, but never mind...
Kim99 said:
The problem is Kim, I seem to have been talking to the back of a bus here for many years. There are a few people here who constantly skate on marbles about things, and I constantly repeat stuff I know they know, and at times I get very tired of it. To ramp up hysteria like this simply doesn't help.
So I suppose I could tone it down. But would it get the message through to those people that the biggest problem is themselves, not the flu?
We will all die from something, sometime somewhere. If you want some black humour the best way to think of it is luckily most of us only die once.
library lady said:
Well, that's just not true. Ask people alive then, who remember. My father does. And here, it was the elderly and very very young who were hit the worst, particularly if they were not nursed appropriately.
Secondly, its all very easy for people who weren't there to speculate based on their second guessing, according to the "very best" science as to this, that and the other.
For the very best in science, see the research shwoing Vioxx, Celebrex, and now Ibuprofen to be "safe". I've got past believing a lot of the so-called very best information from infectious disease specialists or immunologists.
The very best, is simply a new guess in order to make new headlines, and add to their CV publication list.
Those who were alive at the time, and in the thick of it, have a different story to tell. Though I suppose doctors today would consider them of "geriatric unsound mind?"
For those here, who believe in prayer, and that God ordains the steps (and the life span) of us all, and that those who follow in his ways will live part of his plan, then there is only one answer after practical common sense and that is prayer.
After all, FEAR is not of God. And if he looks after his children, then we look to Him, not to fear. God doesn't want any of us to be afraid. But Satan does. Because it suits his purposes.
Hey Jesse. It doesn't matter how long these things live. I remember seeing a video of a man who was working in Africa and the docs there were very upset that he'd not had vaccines of any sort. And he made them give him vials of verified live virulent bacteria and viruses, and to hand them to him.
He prayed over each one, and handed each one back to them. When they checked them under the microscopes immediately afterwards, the pathogens were dead.
For those here who are christians, yes, there is a lot to think about. Why do we, as christians, reduce our thinking to man's reductionism? If God is in control, then shouldn't we trust him?
And for those who appreciate end-times teaching, then look at all these predictions from Frist of terrorists and mutating viruses and think about it. Whose behind it? What does it signify? For those with eyes to see, who read the seasons of the times what should it tell us? And what should we be doing about it?
Is sitting here, trembling with fear, talking about gloves, and fomites what God wants us to do? In whom does hope and love reside?
Okay, less esoterically....
The primary research at the moment, should build on the fact that it has been found that when people are deficient in selenium, it triggers any influenza virus to become more virulent. In otherwords, there are host factors when "passing" the virus around, that need to be looked at.
In terms of dampening down the immune system, vitamin C is one of the best at doing that as it has a lot of biochmical function, and one of them is in reducing the production of histamine and other free-radicals and chemical reaction than can lead to death. And its the best anti DIC that I know, yet most people have no idea about that (DIC = disseminated intravascular coagulation, or in other words, haemorrhaging, anywhere and everywhere)
It's interesting, because there is a lot on pubmed now, which shows that vitamin C has a huge, fantastic impact in the use of meningitis septicaemia, but do you think doctors are even looking at using it?
No, they would rather sit around and let patients die becuase they can't get that little word "vitamin" out of their mind-sets, and think about it in terms that vitamin C, or sodium ascorbate, might just have other functions in the body than that of a vitamin.
True, but it wasn't just the US army. Places like Australia and new Zealand also had soldiers over there. The numbers might not look as spectacular as the USA, but per population numbers they were higher, so the effect here was widespread.
CanadaSue
You can't worry about unknowns. Because they are unknowns, that would be a pointless waste of energy.
You do what you can, then get on and enjoy what you can of life.
Nightdriver
That isn't true. No Scandinavian countries ever used the USA Swine Flu vaccine.
It was a specific formulation, only made one, of a unique hybrid, and showed in animal tests to be extremely dangerous.
Anyone who wants to engineer statistics to sanitise the issue will, because the medical profession don't want the Swine Flu Slur to stick.
But the facts, as per the medical research, and original research done, which was given to the Senate committee hearing cannot be refuted by statistical manipulation, or insinuation of a "teleconference...". Though I'm sure that many would try
Martin; Yes, my father when he got the Spanish flu became ill that quick, though obviously he didn't die.
I appreciate the information you are putting up, and that this thread is important. I also know you are a doctor. So if you are concerned about the Meningococcemia / Meningitis overtones, then research the use of vitamin C in sepsis and other meninococcemia conditions. It might save someone's life one day, if you know what to do, because nothing you have to hand, today, will be of much use. Therefore, why not try something we know is safe, and potentially life-saving? It's better than standing there, shaking your head, and "tut-tutting".
I also cannot believe that Dr Lance Jennings, who is the New Zealand expert in Flu, did a huge study on flu and vitamin C, and found that it reduced the severity by over 50%. The study was never published. But he e-mailed a friend of mine the other day, to confirm the research was done.
Yet all he does is espouse vaccines? You have to wonder what the total agenda is.
Martin, I asked my father about the subcutaneous emphysema and noise, and he said that they had heard about that in some countries overseas, but it wasn't a factor in this country. I also wonder about intra country mutations too, and whether there was considerable variation from country to country dependant on the nutritional and other status of the people there....
So not only DIC but obviously the liver isn't coping. A similar but less obvious mechanism to ebola haemorrhagia...
Again, vitamin C. Get in early enough in acute disease with large enough doses, and it should maintain the integrity of all cellular walls. More importantly, keep up your vitamin C intake, and if you get sick increase it immediately, prefereable with Sodium ascorbate, since you won't feel like eating anyway... also put in bioflavinoids and other co-factors. Maybe Rutin... hesperidin... use Sambucol...
Heightened vigilance is good. But the reality is that viruses can't be seen, and watching for them, isn't going to stop their spread, either in birds or amongst people.
Housecard:
I absolutely agree!
And there is something else. I have several friends in the African countries right now, where there is a massive oral polio vaccination campaign becasue of the Nigerian episode.. never mind that these kids have had the vaccine 6 + times already.
They are using ORAL polio vaccine. And the kids are dying like flies and no-one is reporting it, or counting the dead bodies.
Do you know what the live oral polio vaccine does to people with AIDS in africa? Pretty much the same as a flu infection would.
If you rang the USA CDC and asked them if oral polio vaccine should be used in communities with a high level or risk of HIV/AIDS, they will tell you NO, yet the WHO, and all the other organisations think its okay to use oral polio vaccine in Africa. Amazing.
Do the Africans realise any of this? Highly unlikely, since most of the people they are talking about are too busy to keep up with the likes of this board, or big newspapers.
My friends spend their days trying to treat mostly malnourished people with septic wounds from getting sticks in bare feet; tuberculosis gone rampant and AIDS...
The children who die just "go missing". The parents just bury them and tell my friends later on....
Martin
Actually Martin, I disagree. The most deadly human catastrophe to happen to American people happens to the tune of 100,000 deaths every year, according to the 2005, May 19 issue of Journal of the American Medical Association.
And the cause of those deaths isn't flu, or cancer, or pneumonia, its preventable medical error.
Just from 1990, when this issue first started to be discussed, the lowest figure for the total for the 15 years since then, NOT INCLUDING nosocomial infections and drug reactions, is 1, 500,000.
That's a far larger tragedy overall, than the 1918 Spanish Flu.
Oh, and the 36,000 deaths per year in USA from flu figure is incorrect. As I'm sure you know.
The important thing about this subject is to look at it from all angles, and see it in context of a much bigger picture.