H5N1 human deaths in China - this may be it folks

Martin

Deceased
News Blackout on Human Bird Flu Deaths in Qinghai China?

Recombinomics Commentary
May 26, 2005

>> Qinghai Province health department concerned person in charge Ai Keyuan indicated that, the Qinghai Province health department also requests the above local all levels of medical and health organization to strengthen to the flu, has a fever case of illness and the unclear reason pneumonia case of illness registration, sieves Zha He to diagnose, once discovered 疑似 case of illness, must report, carry on the isolation and the treatment, simultaneously completes diagnoses personnel's protection work.

But the official strict blockade related news, forbids the patient family member foreign speech. Free Asian broadcasting station reporter when interview also discovered that, passes on of area a spring lucky township for epidemic disease areas telephone, the situation is not been normal. <<

The report above would seem to indicate a news blackout of some sort was in place for Qinghai province. The sequence of events is cause for significant concern. Initial reports of dead geese at the Qinghai Lake Nature Reserve indicated that 178 bar headed geese had died, but not of bird flu. Recent media reports indicated that the dead geese were H5N1 positive and the OIE report of May 21 indicated there were 519 dead waterfowl involving five species, including the bar-headed geese.

Official comments from China indicated the 519 deaths were isolated and there were no deaths in farm birds or people. Promed then carried a report indicating 6 people had died and the Chinese language report indicated they were tourists and the names and point of origin of 4 fatalities were given.

This May 22 report was followed by a May 24 report indicating the number dead was 121 and a news blackout was being imposed. The number of dead (121 in total) and infected (79 in total) at 18 different locations was listed and a news embargo was again mentioned.

The report above also mentions a news embargo.

However, WHO contacted China by phone and letter and was assured that there were no human cases.

It is unclear why there is a news embargo if there are no additional cases beyond the 519 reported to OIE

Clearly the news embargo on a potential worldwide pandemic is inappropriate. The reservoir is within the intersection of the East Asia and Central South Asia flyways which cover virtually all of Asia. Some of the geese winter in India and stop at the reservoir in route to nest spots in Russia.

Surveillance of waterfowl in India and Russia is an urgent priority as is firsthand knowledge of the reported 121 H5N1 fatalities, including reports of cremation of victims.

WHO phone calls and letters are far from satisfactory.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05260501/H5N1_Qinghai_Human_Blackout.html
 

Kimber

Membership Revoked
I'm setting myself up for having bricks thrown at me. But, I now doubt this bird flu is "it." To steal a phrase from Zeph Daniel, "it doesn't have wings."

Scientists are being knocked off for a reason, but I don't think it is this virus, which is commonly being discussed.

Just my two cents.

David

Edited: Minor stuff.
 

Martin

Deceased
Qinghai Province Vaccinates All Poultry


2005-5-27 22:29:14 CRIENGLISH.com

China's western Qinghai Province has conducted a massive vaccination over all poultry to control the spread of bird flu.
An official with Chinese Ministry of Agriculture says the Qinghai provincial government has taken contingency prevention and control measures, including disinfecting the epidemic areas.

On Thursday, China's Ministry of Health said that no cases of human infection had been detected.

Meanwhile, Chinese scientists have announced that two new vaccines have been developed to effectively curb the spread of H5N1 to fowl, water birds and mammals.


http://en.chinabroadcast.cn/2238/2005-5-27/148@241191.htm
 

Martin

Deceased
May 27 2005 11:49AM
Russia clamps down on Italian poultry meat
MOSCOW. May 27 (Interfax) - Russia is banning the import of finished poultry meat products from Italy's Province of Cremona (Lombardy region) due to cases of bird flu in that region, the Federal Veterinary and Phytosanitary Control Service (Rosselkhoznadzor) told Interfax.

Russia has banned the import of live poultry, incubated eggs, poultry meat and all types of poultry product not thermal-processed, as well as bird feed, over cases of bird flu in the Lombardy region Province of Brescia since April 20. Those restrictions do not cover finished products.



http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/finances/26.html?id_issue=11302987
 

Mongo

Veteran Member
Kimber said:
I'm setting myself up for having bricks thrown at me. But, I now doubt this bird flu is "it." To steal a phrase from Zeph Daniel, "it doesn't have wings."

Scientists are being knocked off for a reason, but I don't think it is this virus, which is commonly being discussed.

Just my two cents.

David

Edited: Minor stuff.

What if, in the name of combating a terrible pandemic, much of the world population was innoculated with a "vaccine" - a vaccine that turned out to have "unforseen" effects worse than the flu?

Then, to get the "REAL" cure to the now fatal disease obtained via the vaccinations, people were required to jump through hoops?

"Got ID?"
 

Kimber

Membership Revoked
Martin,

Allow me to respond. The most optimal death rate appears to be 30%. More than that, the bug dies out too quickly. Less, and, well, it's less.

So, the black death was the perfect bug. And it isn't even certain that it was the bubonic plague - at least I've read stories to that effect.

Panic about the bird flu - I don't mind.

David

Edited to add: I also love Mel Brooks!

Edited again: Alex Karras - Blazing Saddles.
 

Martin

Deceased
Bird Flu Deaths in Qinghai China Unprecedented

Recombinomics Commentary
May 27, 2005

>> The scarce information released about both disease outbreaks had fueled concern about a possible cover-up and rumors on Web sites that as many as 120 people had died of the avian flu.

More than 1,000 bar-headed geese, great black-headed gulls and other birds found this month in the western province of Qinghai died of the H5N1 strain of bird flu, Jia said.

"It is a rarity for such large-scale deaths to occur, whether in China or other parts of the world. We have never heard of such a thing," Jia said at a hastily called news conference.

Nevertheless, he said, "No person in Qinghai has been infected by the virus." <<

Although China continues to deny human H5N1 infections, the number of dead birds continue to mount and now exceed 1000. The update at the hastily called news conference suggests the death tool is rapidly growing and without precedent.

In the May 21 report to OIE, the number of dead birds was put at 519. Now, less than a week later, the number has more than doubled. Qinghai Lake Nature Reserve, like all reserves in China, has been closed. However, as the number of dead birds increase, concern that newly infected migratory birds could carry the H5N1 to points north and west increase. The bar-headed geese can fly 1000 miles in a single day, and although some nest at the Qinghai Reserve, others continue on to Southern Russia to nest.

The Qinghai Lake Nature Reserve lies within the intersection of the East Asia and Central South Asia flyways. These two flyways cover all of Asia.

Although China continues to deny H5N1 human infections, official comments have not addressed the cause of death of the 121 people in 18 villages near the Nature Reserve.

In the absence of a diagnosis of these deaths, which coincided in time and place with the bird deaths, speculation and concern will continue to spread


http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05270502/H5N1_Qinghai_Unprecedented.html
 

Martin

Deceased
2 epidemics spreading among livestock and birds, China says

BY TIM JOHNSON

Knight Ridder Newspapers


BEIJING - (KRT) - After stonewalling for weeks, China acknowledged Friday that two epidemics had spread among its animal and bird populations, renewing questions about its readiness to provide prompt information about infectious disease.

The belated announcement came amid fresh criticism that China's disease-surveillance system is inadequate to deal with an avian flu virus that scientists say may turn into a global pandemic among humans.

An outbreak of hoof-and-mouth disease, which causes livestock to waste away, was detected in cattle in five regions of China, leading animal-health experts to slaughter 4,383 head, the nation's chief veterinarian, Jia Youling, said at a news conference.

Rumors had spread in rural areas about the outbreak as animal-health agents began culling cattle and spreading disinfectant along roads. But the matter was subject to a news blackout, and journalists were barred from affected regions. As recently as this week, officials said they knew nothing about a hoof-and-mouth contagion.

Jia defended the belated announcement about the epidemic among dairy and beef cattle.

"There is nothing strange about the delay of 20 days," Jia said. "It takes quite a while after discovering a disease to confirm it. ... We have controlled the epidemic."

Highly contagious hoof-and-mouth disease affects cloven-hoofed animals, such as pigs, cattle, sheep, goats and deer. It doesn't affect humans.

China came under fierce criticism in 2003 for its slow and secretive response to the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, which sprang up in southern Guangdong province and spread to 30 countries, killing more than 770 people, mostly in Asia. Since then, China has pledged to be more open about outbreaks of infectious disease.

In another announcement, Jia said avian flu had killed 1,000 migratory wild birds in the northwestern province of Qinghai, but that it hadn't spread to poultry or humans. The toll marked a fivefold increase from previous reports China had offered to the Paris-based World Organization for Animal Health.

Earlier this week, authorities dispatched experts to vaccinate 3 million chickens, ducks and other poultry in Qinghai, a sparsely populated province in the Himalayan steppes that's a migratory route for birds between Central Asia and India. Jia said the wild birds found dead include bar-headed geese, cormorants and great black-headed gulls.

An aggressive virus, avian flu has been plaguing poultry and wild birds in about a dozen countries in Asia over the past two years. While the virus hasn't yet mutated to allow human-to-human transmission, it's killed about 40 people who came in contact with poultry. Scientists say it's only a matter of time until a virulent new strain of the virus, known as H5N1, begins to spread among humans.

An international weekly science journal, Nature, devoted a special issue this week to the threat of a global avian-flu pandemic among humans. It criticized China's lack of transparency and preparedness to deal with avian flu.

"There is little doubt that China will be in deep trouble if the flu pandemic were to strike in the next few years. It has a moral obligation to its own people, and to the world, to rectify the situation as soon as possible," wrote a virologist, David Ho, of the Aaron Diamond AIDS Research Center at Rockefeller University in New York City


http://www.tallahassee.com/mld/tallahassee/news/world/11756707.htm
 
CNN: Lou Dobbs tonight

The Bird Flu Pandemic is on. The Chinese Agriculture Sec. has admitted
that there are/were 5X the number of infected birds reported and that
they are trying to acquire a supply of Tamiflu.

According to Dobb's guest, Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institute of
Allergy and Infectious Diseases, there were Congressional hearings today,
on the subject...?
 

LilRose8

Veteran Member
Mongo said:
What if, in the name of combating a terrible pandemic, much of the world population was innoculated with a "vaccine" - a vaccine that turned out to have "unforseen" effects worse than the flu?

Then, to get the "REAL" cure to the now fatal disease obtained via the vaccinations, people were required to jump through hoops?

"Got ID?"

What if the multitude of dead scientists are due to the creation of a 'bug' that is engineered to wipe out 60% of the world population so that overcrowding and excess population are taken care of?

Just a thought.
 

Kimber

Membership Revoked
Martin,

I may have been giddy with my prior post, sorry for that.

But a bug that will wipe out 1/3 of the population is the worst we have to fear, so I do agree.

David

Edited: grammar stuff.
 

Sharon

Inactive
This is the first thread on this flu that I've read all the way through. One problem I'm having is I've 200 more pages to read of Steven King's "The Stand". First, and probably last Steven King novels I'll read, but it's just not helping my outlook on this.

CS as always, I appreciate your reporting of the facts as well as your opinions. Your last post helped put this into prespective, and that's appreciated.

I for one will now keep an eye on this, but not panic until it's time to panic. And, time will tell.

The most important prep I can have is my standing with my Lord. After that, well, I'll do the best I can, but because of age I'll expect to get it if it truly becomes seriously pandemic, but hope I don't.
 

JohnGaltfla

#NeverTrump
U.S. unprepared against new flu - experts

U.S. unprepared against new flu - experts

By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States still has no licensed vaccine to prevent avian flu and has nowhere near enough drugs to treat the sick if there is an epidemic, experts told Congress on Thursday.

Hospitals have too little capacity to deal with the huge numbers of people who would become sick and the U.S. Health and Human Services Department does not have a plan for dealing with an epidemic, the experts said.

"Although many levels of government are paying increased attention to the problem, the United States remains woefully unprepared for an influenza pandemic that could kill millions of Americans," said Dr. Andrew Pavia, chairman of the Infectious Disease Society of America's Pandemic Influenza Task Force.

"Clearly, we need a much larger supply of drugs and vaccine to control a flu pandemic. We need to build up U.S. manufacturing capacity so that we are not dependent on other countries to meet our needs," Pavia said in remarks prepared for a hearing of the health subcommittee of the House of Representatives' Energy and Commerce Committee.

Dr. Julie Gerberding, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said the government was working hard to address the threat.

"CDC's influenza budget is $197 million ... a lot larger than just a few years ago," Gerberding said. "We have a lot of work to do, and that work needs to be a priority."

The H5N1 strain of avian flu has killed 37 people in Vietnam, 12 in Thailand and four in Cambodia.

It could sicken up to 20 percent of the world's population if it acquires the ability to pass easily among people, says influenza expert Dr. Albert Osterhaus of the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, Netherlands.

A pandemic could send 30 million people to the hospital and a quarter of them could die, Osterhaus and colleagues predicted in articles in Thursday's issue of the journal Nature.

Influenza causes epidemics annually and kills 36,000 Americans in a normal season. Different strains emerge almost annually, and a new one can kill many more if it is one that has not affected people in recent years.

A brand-new strain, such as H5N1, could be devastating.

"The U.S. population has no immunity and therefore no protection against this deadly virus," Pavia said.

He recommended that the United States stockpile a larger supply of antiviral drugs, especially oseltamivir, made by Switzerland's Roche under the brand name Tamiflu. Avian influenza resists older antiviral drugs, like amantadine and rimantadine, but Tamiflu can help make an infection less severe.

Although Roche has quadrupled its production capacity for Tamiflu, experts believe global stockpiles will be too small for a pandemic. The current stockpile would treat less than 2 percent of the U.S. population. Pavia's group recommends having enough on hand to treat 50 percent.

The U.S. government has also contracted with Sanofi-Aventis and Chiron Corp. to make H5N1 flu vaccines, but the contracts provide for only 2 million doses and the vaccines are still experimental.

The U.S. Government Accountability Office also criticized the U.S. lack of preparation.

Marcia Crosse, Director of Health Care for the GAO, said in prepared testimony that the United States needs to address regulatory, privacy, and procedural issues surrounding measures to control the spread of disease, especially across borders.

:shkr: :kk2: :kk2: :kk2: :shkr:
 

JohnGaltfla

#NeverTrump
Ok, I have to ask

I have access to P-95 masks in quantity (I used to be in the car biz, painting included). Are the effective against this bug or am I wasting money at $35 per 10 pack?????
 

Martin

Deceased
China reports more bird deaths, defends FMD actions


2005/5/28
By Joe McDonald BEIJING, AP



Avian flu killed more than five times as many migratory birds as previously reported in China's west in an outbreak of apparently unprecedented scale, an agriculture official said Friday, but he denied reports of human cases.
The official also confirmed reports that hundreds of cattle with foot and mouth disease have been slaughtered near Beijing since early May, and insisted the case was handled properly even though the government failed to announce it sooner.

The scarce information released previously about the twin disease outbreaks had fueled concern about a possible cover-up and rumors on Web sites that as many as 120 people had died of the flu.


Maybe that will pop out next week... :rolleyes:


More than 1,000 bar-headed geese, great black-headed gulls and other birds found this month in the western province of Qinghai died of the H5N1 strain of bird flu, said Jia Youling, director of the Veterinary Bureau of the Agriculture Ministry.

"It is a rarity for such large-scale deaths to occur, whether in China or other parts of the world. We have never heard of such a thing," Jia said at a hastily called news conference. Nevertheless, he said, "No person in Qinghai has been infected by the virus."

The regionwide death toll in Asia's latest bird flu outbreak stands at 54, but no fatalities have been reported in China. Vietnam is hardest-hit, with 38 deaths.

China initially reported 178 geese found dead in Qinghai Lake in Qinghai, a vast saltwater lake that is a major transit point for migratory birds, and raised that this week to 519. Jia didn't explain why the number had increased so sharply.

The deaths prompted the government to order all 3 million of the chickens, ducks and other poultry in Qinghai vaccinated. Nature reserves were closed to the public and farms near migration routes were told to watch for signs of disease.


http://www.chinapost.com.tw/detail.asp?ID=63026&GRP=A
 

Martin

Deceased
Abbotsford Turkeys catch flu from pigs


canada.com


Friday, May 27, 2005


ABBOTSFORD, B.C. (CP) -- Turkeys at a medium-sized farm have contracted a harmless flu virus that seems to have spread from infected pigs brought in from the Prairies, B.C.'s chief veterinary officer said Friday.

While stressing the virus doesn't present any public health concerns, Dr. Ron Lewis said it's the first time in Canada that it has crossed from pigs to poultry.

Lewis said the H3 strain of the virus was recently detected in a small number of turkeys during routine blood sampling at one poultry farm.

"It's not a significant disease in terms of human concern, it's really not even a significant disease in terms of the birds that are involved," Lewis said.

The H3 virus is not serious enough to be reportable to the Canadian Food Inspection Agency.

The H3 virus is more common among pigs in the Prairie provinces, where it seems to have emerged in swine imported to Manitoba from the United States, Lewis said.

He said the infected turkeys aren't showing any outward signs of sickness and are fit for human consumption.

Last year, the more serious H5 and H7 strains of the avian flu wreaked economic havoc on Fraser Valley farmers after some 17 million chickens either died or had to be destroyed


http://www.canada.com/components/printstory/printstory4.aspx?id=b09dfc74-ac5e-4246-969a-8eafa6e54c39
 
JohnGaltfla said:
I have access to P-95 masks in quantity (I used to be in the car biz, painting included). Are the effective against this bug or am I wasting money at $35 per 10 pack?????


John it takes an N-100 mask to filter out the H5N1 virus.....
 

Dusty Lady

Veteran Member
John Gault

In EMS classes I have been taught that the masks are only good untill the moisture from your breath gets the mask moist, then it's no good. Aparently the "bug" can adhere to it or go thru it. So I would guess that while your exposed to a victum of the flu for say 30 or so minutes, that would be about it for your protection time.
 

JohnGaltfla

#NeverTrump
Dusty Lady said:
John Gault

In EMS classes I have been taught that the masks are only good untill the moisture from your breath gets the mask moist, then it's no good. Aparently the "bug" can adhere to it or go thru it. So I would guess that while your exposed to a victum of the flu for say 30 or so minutes, that would be about it for your protection time.

Thank you again. I was just looking at the N-100 masks from 3M which are basically disposable respirators, which allow moisture out, but keep the filter dry via the one way exahaltion valve (3M 8233 N100 Particulate Respirator). If this is the case, I'll probably go ahead and spend the $$$$ to buy some because of the number of travelers into Florida and the vast number of nations that come here for our beaches and to visit the big rat in Orlando...
 

Kim99

Veteran Member
The best price online that I've found for N100 masks is @ www.allergybegone.com

2 for $18 10 for $85.00 20 for $160.00


Does anyone know if these masks are available at hardware stores? I might check those prices, too.

Thanks, Kim
 
Kim99 said:
The best price online that I've found for N100 masks is @ www.allergybegone.com

2 for $18 10 for $85.00 20 for $160.00


Does anyone know if these masks are available at hardware stores? I might check those prices, too.

Thanks, Kim

We purchased ours at a drugstore which caters to the Labs and hospitals here.
FWIW, it is my understanding that the national, international governments - as well as the state governments are buying them as fast as they are being made. So if you can find them (after the 2 Lou Dobbs H5N1 segiments) I'd grab them if I could....
 

KateCanada

Inactive
Lou Dobbs (mainstream media is talking now)

DOBBS: Disturbing new details tonight from China on the deadly bird flu, as health officials there warn a global pandemic. A Chinese agriculture official today said a strain of bird flu deadly to human beings has killed five times the number of birds, migratory birds, than originally reported by Chinese authorities. My guest tonight says that if there are infected birds, that chances are greater that the virus will spread to humans.

Joining me now is Dr. Anthony Fauci. He's director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health.

Doctor, good to have you here.

DR. ANTHONY FAUCI, NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH: Good to be here, Lou.

DOBBS: First, the fact that the Chinese authorities are saying that far more migratory birds have both been infected and died of bird flu, then the rush of vaccine to the province where that outbreak is. What does this suggest to you?

FAUCI: Well, there's great concern, because when migratory birds are infected, they almost certainly are going to cross-contaminate the flocks of chickens. And there are literally over 10 billion chickens in China. That's a very important source of nourishment for them, and it is also the source of what we are now seeing in Vietnam of this H5N1 bird flu jumping from chickens to humans.

So they're rushing in trying to vaccinate their chicken flocks, and they're also trying to get some Tamiflu, which is a drug for people who might be handling them. So there's a risk there that if their chicken flocks get infected, with so many people and so many chickens, they're going to be faced with the same thing that Vietnam is going through now, which is really rather ominous with the situation in Vietnam.

DOBBS: As the number of deaths have risen in Vietnam, in China, with the vaccination that has been -- the flu vaccine that has been sent in for those targeted for the chickens, how effective is that against the bird flu?

FAUCI: You know, it really varies, Lou. There are different formulation, different lots.

If made correctly, it should be reasonable good in protecting. But we know that there's great variability from vaccine to vaccine. They obviously did this in a very accelerated, rushed way.

The quality control for vaccines for chickens is certainly not nearly at the level of what we would expect for humans. Certainly not what would be expected in this country regarding both safety and efficacy. But they're faced with an emergency situation there.

DOBBS: Doctor, I'm sure many people are wondering why we're so concerned about what is happening in China with bird flu, or Vietnam, for that matter, as we think about the public health of the United States and the well-being of Americans. But you've testified before Congress this week that, in point of fact, it's really not a question of whether or not the bird flu will arrive in this country and spread around the world, but really when. Is that correct?

FAUCI: It is correct, Lou. And the reason we say that is the factors that accumulate that would lead to what we call a pandemic flu -- and it's important for the viewers to understand the difference between a pandemic flu, that really worries us, and the seasonal flu that we've spoken about on this show, where you have some minor changes from year to year, and fundamentally there's good background immunity. If you get vaccinated it's even better. A pandemic flu is a flu with a virus to which you have no immunity because you've never experienced it before.

What's going on in Asia right now is an accumulative effect. So it may not be this year. It may not be next year. But the factors that are leading to it are not going away. And the intensity or the seriousness of the pandemic varies greatly.

In the 20th century, we had one pandemic in 1980 -- 1918, that is, that killed 20 to 40 million people worldwide, and then we had a much more moderate one in 1968, which killed one million people. A little bit more serious one in '57 that killed two to four.

So there's a wide range. And flu is so unpredictable, Lou, that you have to expect the worst, which is the reason for the concern that you heard in the congressional hearings the other day.

DOBBS: And the worst variant of flu that we could talk about would be bird flu, as you're describing it, that we have not experienced before. The idea of vaccinating Americans against it, where we have not experienced the flu before, is there any way in the world in which to create a vaccine that would be effective against that strain?

FAUCI: Very good point. And we actually have already started a vaccine trial in April of this year. The first stages of it are given in several different doses, as well as in initial prime in a boost to determine, first, is it safe, and what's the right dose, because we don't have any experience with this before. We've also purchased two million doses for our strategic national stockpile.

The problem is that we're faced with the same situation as we were when we discussed on this show about the influenza vaccine shortage of this past season. The total global capacity for making influenza vaccine ranges between 300 million 450 million doses. There are six billion people in the world.

So the capacity of manufacturing is never going to get us to all the vaccine we need. Having said that, we've started a trial with the assumption that we will have to scale up that two million just in case, in fact, we do get bird flu in this country.

DOBBS: Are there -- and we are out of time, doctor -- but, in point of fact, are there U.S. pharmaceutical companies in this country that can produce this vaccine?

FAUCI: Well, the company that's making it is a French company that's actually manufacturing it in Edgewater, Pennsylvania. So the plant is at least in this country.

DOBBS: Dr. Fauci, as always, good to have you here, even when the issues we're discussing are not pleasant by any stretch of the imagination. Thank you very much.

FAUCI: Thank you, Lou. Thank you.

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0505/27/ldt.01.html

Gulp we're dead meat! :sht:
 
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mcchrystal

Inactive
It boggles the mind that Lou Dobbs is the only prime - time newsguy talking
about all of this.

I have this sneaking suspicion that we're about to get bitten, and we'll be stunned.
 

KateCanada

Inactive
mcchrystal said:
It boggles the mind that Lou Dobbs is the only prime - time newsguy talking
about all of this.

I have this sneaking suspicion that we're about to get bitten, and we'll be stunned.


Funny (not) - that's exactly what I was thinking since I've heard about this no were else!!
 

Beetree

Veteran Member
I have not read of the Symptoms.

It seems that if this was so bad they would be talking about the symptoms.
 

BB

Membership Revoked
I caught both the '57 and the '68 viruses. The fever made me delirious and I was one sick pup. Chills one moment and raging hot the next. I remember my mom kept coming in and asking me if I was ok and taking my temperature. I was glad I didn't have to go to school, but I never thought the flu could kill you, although I thought I was going to die. I doubt my mom knew the flu could kill you. The ones that are really vulnerable are the elderly and the very young although this bug seems to be taking no quarter and giving no quarter. If they offer a vaccine, I may take it.

In those days, it was St. Joseph Aspirin and plenty of water......and a little prayer. (If I should die before I wake...). Now it's essential oils and emergen-C, tamiflu and gatorade.
 

Just Wondering

Southern Sloth
righty then.

How many times have I said this in the past? And how many time will I have to say it again.

Your worst enemy with the flu is Y.O. U.

Got that?!!!!!

YOU generically speaking....

and you know all why, don't you, .... or have you forgotten????

CanadaSue said:
2 big changes need to occur with H5N1 before it has the POTENTIAL to unleash a pandemic. It must more easily transmit from bird to human - it's trying to do that now. The hemagglutinen spike is mutating to fit HUMAN receptor sites. That doesn't happen purposefully, it just... happens. But once it does & that new viral line becomes established in avians, expect a higher rate of human infections.

Next it must transmit BETWEEN humans more efficiently. That seems to be happening in fits & starts but unless those successful viral lines are transmitted in an unbroken & expanding change, it can fizzle there.

Okay once those adaptations happen, conditions have to be right for pandemic.

So, come on, CanadaSue. Why don't you tell everyone here, what the most potent immunosuppressors are???

Outside of reall immunodeficiencies the Number One, Two and Three immunosuppressors are:

1) Vitamin and Mineral Deficiencies. It's already been proven with the flu that a selenium deficiency increases the virulence of the flu....

2) Panic and Fear, which bombs in the immune system

3) Sugar, which trashes the cellular immunity and virtually grinds it to a standstill for three hours.

I think its highly funny, Martin, that for all the propaganda Dr Jennings spews aroung the place, he never talks about a study that he did which showed that high doses of Vitamin C reduces the severity of the flu by 50%. Such things just aren't PC in this world of regular doom and gloom are they?

We aren't supposed to talk about what we CAN and SHOULD do. All they want is to get everyone into a FRENZY so that when any vaccine comes out, no matter how rushed, everyone rushes to roll their sleeves up....

The mutated virus must have access to at least ONE human who will becomes infected & in turn infect other humans - at first it may be one at a time.


Well, yes.... virus abc...

What we don't know is this... as it gains in the ability to be transmitted H-H, how nasty will it remain? What unknown factors may have to be met before it can blossom from a snowball to an avalanche? I suspect there are some.

You know perfectly well what the main ones are. They are the same ones that were there in 1918. Debilitated people, with not that wonderful diet.

Only this time it will be worse, because everyone will run around like headless freaked out chooks frothing at the mouth, having been whipped up by the media into a crazed frenzy, frightened they will die yesterday.

What's the bet people die from heart attacks and strokes, stoked by the fear being pumped out by TPTB?

Gee. What a good way to depopulate a country?

After all, flu's been with us for over 2 thousand year, we suspect.

Well, yes. History abc...

We've only had one pandemic on teh scale of 1918-19. How many came dangerously close to making the final leap... then simply failed?

Where it starts or how it's spread hardly matters. Once it's 'out there' it's everyone's problem. Tell me how to keep an infected Chinese national out of Canada when he/she is completely asymptomatic? How do you keep them out of the US? What about an American national infected ther eon a business trip who brings it home while asymptomatic?

No, that's not the issue CanadaSue. You're right about one thing. It's everyone's problem. So what are you going to do about your immune system so that if you get it, you only get a mild dose, and furthermore you actually have at hand things like Sambucol, Vitamin C and all the other things you need.

Or will you be one of the millions who take ibuprofen and that drags the flue out for another four days, and increases the virus yield from your body substantially, becuase you "forgot" that antipyretics actually disable the immune system and allow viruses and bacteria to get a greater grip in the body???

Huh???

What are YOU going to do, to ensure that if YOU get it, you don't cause the virus to mutate to a more virulent form? Will you make sure your selenium levels and other mineral levels are good? Will you be a responsible citizen and stay at home and look after yourself properly?

Or will you buy into the propaganda and ridiculous medical advice which you know will be put out there?

Stories generate their own momentum - not always with reason.

I disagree. They've always got a reason.

It's called keeping everyone right where they want them. Compliant.

It's time to take control of your emotions people, and start right now, to do something about your immune systems so that if...if... it comes your way, you aren't one of the frothing at the mouth, headless chooks, running around so panic stricken that you have no idea what to do.

Get... a... grip...

And take control of yourselves.
 

Just Wondering

Southern Sloth
This is a small amount of information on the swine flu fiasco, from a book I've written. Bear in mind that I know Dr Morris (Tony Morris), and have all the documentation to back all this up, both actual documents, the meidcal articles, newspaper articles and senate hearing documents. It's only a small part of the chapter.... but think about it. The power of fear.

This time, though the "danger" is more real, ~ but even so, you have to be aware that sometimes the propaganda is sometimes more dangerous than the actual threat. the actual threat is something you can prepare for, and panic isn't the best commodity to function from. You need a clear head, and a good understanding, not just of flu viruses and how they work and alternative medicine, but the fact that the media is primed to create fear and mayhem.

This chapter was all referenced, but in the book its notated using footnotes, which don't come out on a copy and paste. But believe me. If you know your own medical literature and get hold of the relevant senate records, its all there for the geeking. It followed on another chapter on the flu vaccines, and the things you weren't told about them either...

By the way, I was recently looking through the Appendices to Parliamentary Journals in the early 1900's here, and came across some fascinating reports from the health Department.

Did you know that there was a vaccine put out against the 1918 flu? It was called the Mixed Cattharal vaccine (sp) and because it was supposedly used with such "great success" in the forces in Europe, the year beforehand, the report detailed that they had made enough of it to protect the country from it. They even named the man who made it all, and clapped him to the heavens.

I gagged when I read it, and how it was all wonderful, and everyone would be just fine, jake....

Ah... and now? I guess the New Zealand Government just hopes you don't delve into their nasty little secrets, and find out that not only was that vaccine so "successful" (NOT) that also other vaccines were very successful. The the Acne vaccine that had been sold since 1911.. the gonorrhea vaccine, the common cold vaccine, the Pneumococcus vaccine, the scarlet fever vaccine... I was staggered to read this long list of vaccines that was sold which were supposed to pre-date sliced bread.

It really got me thinking. And by the way. At the same time, the government was proposing legislation called the anti-quack legislation. What for? To prevent fake doctors selling fake medicines.

A bit droll, don't you think?

Read on, if you have the energy....

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The Power of Fear.


In February 1976, in Ft. Dix in New Jersey, a swine flu strain had been found in one soldier who died on a march. It couldn’t be identified in the public health laboratory in New Jersey so they sent it to Atlanta, who designated it as a swine flu virus. It was believed that the 1918 epidemic had been due to a swine flu virus, but Paul Brown and Dr Morris, as part of the work in the islands had been able to prove that the 1918 epidemic wasn’t caused by the swine flu virus. It was PR8, another strain of influenza, that was discovered in Puerto Rico many years before. So the assumption that this swine flu would cause another world wide pandemic was wrong from the start.

Unfortunately, Paul Simpson, who then headed the CDC in Atlanta didn’t check that out. No other swine influenza virus was recovered except the one at Fort Dix, which was sent to Fort Detrix (the biological warfare unit) who found it was an ordinary pig virus, and that there was no reason to be alarmed.

The virus was given to Tony Morris’s lab to look at, and he found nothing to distinguish it from any other swine flu strain.

It seems that the CDC decided that this would be a good opportunity to revive the ailing flag-ship of flu vaccination campaigns which had taken a bit of a public denting. (This was all detailed in the previous chapter...)

The next thing that was discovered was that you couldn’t make a vaccine on that swine flu strain, because it grew too slowly. To do it, would take years. So Killborn hybridised the virus with PB8, the agent that caused the 1918 epidemic, which meant that the swine virus took on the fast growing properties of PB8. So the agent that was used in the vaccine wasn’t the pig strain from the solder, but a fast growing hybrid.

Simpson didn’t have the courage to go to the President and say he had made a mistake.

They sold the vaccine by dramatic hard sell, insisting that a flu epidemic like the 1918 pandemic that killed millions worldwide was imminent unless everyone lined up for the swine flu vaccine. The estimated deaths throughout USA were put at one million. In terms of the chances of it being like 1918, estimates were “1 out of 2”

The only problem was Dr Morris. Because of what he, and the other laboratories had found, he went public saying that there was no cause for alarm. When he told his then boss he was speaking out he was told “I would advise you not to talk about this”.

He continued to study the virus,, and also went public stating though there was no precise way to measure the vaccine’s potency its efficacy appeared comparatively low. Further, he could find no evidence that this strain would spread, or that it was serious, but that on the other hand, the vaccine was dangerous and might induce, not only hypersensitivity but also neurological side effects.

He held seminars on the National Institutes of Health campus. He sent letters to newspapers, talked to reporters, to anyone who would listen in the media.

Possibly as a result of this, Insurance companies came out and said they would not insure the vaccine, so laws had to be passed transferring liability to the Government.

When the Guillain Barre started, Tony Morris’s laboratory looked more closely at the vaccine, which confirmed their feelings about the issues surrounding both effectiveness, and safety.

After a sustained seven week public attack on the Swine Flu programme, on July 12, 1976, Alexander M Schmidt, Commissioner of the FDA fired Dr Morris for “insubordination” and “inefficiency”. In his letter he states

“Your direct disobedience of your immediate supervisor signifies to me, you unwillingness to exist within a necessary chain of administrative command.”

In other word, we told you to shut up, and you didn’t. As Tony Morris put it to the Washington Star on July 27, 1976:

:
There is no doubt in my mind that Schmidt moved because I opposed the Swine Flu program.”

Tony worked out of James Turner’s small office and his own home, continuing to carry arguments to the press, assessing case histories of side effects and continuing to attend NIH flu meetings to argue the case.

Some people out there listened. Notably one Carmine Galante, know as “the cigar”, a Mafia gangster who, the Times said, would shoot you in church during Mass. Galante had been in prison from the early 60’s to 1974, when he got out on parole. He believed you should not talk, but kill. Trouble was that the then Mafia leader, 71 year old Carlo Gambino, who might have been ailing with a heart condition, was shrewd and had the measure of Galante.

But Galante had been listening, and managed to convince Gambino’s agents that Gambino should have the Swine Flu vaccine. He did. And dropped dead shortly after. With Gambino dead, Calante went after at least eight Genovese gangster members, and established his own Mafia supremacy until July 12, 1979, when he was cut down in a spur of the moment decision to go to a family restaurant.

By October 1976, there were already 33 people dead, and by mid-December there were about 500 cases of Guillain-Barre. But even up to December all authorities were publicly stating that there was no relationship between the deaths, or side effects with the vaccine. In December of that year, at an urgent meeting, Langmuir, who was one of the chief immunologists at the CDC at the time said “We cannot look at these data and not conclude that it was this influenza virus vaccine that precipitated Guillain Barre in those who developed it, so we must consider stopping the programme.” The round the table vote was 13 – 1 to stop the programme.

On December 16th, after 46 million shots, at a point where finally, three deaths had finally been “recognised” as being caused by the vaccine, the programme was stopped. But the main message continued to be denial, and more denial.

Tony Morris said to the Washington post 13th March 1977 about Flu Vaccines:

:
It’s a medical rip-off… We should recognize that we don’t know enough about the dangers associated with flu vaccine. I believe the public should have truthful information on the basis of which they can determine whether or not to take the vaccine.” And he adds, “I believe that, given full information, they won’t take the vaccine.”

In 1978, two Harvard professors wrote in a government sponsored study that the failure of the swine-flu programme illustrated fundamental weaknesses in the nation’s scientific decision-making process.

Specifically, they said the director of the Center for Disease Control, who conceived the mass immunization effort, had “put a gun” to the head of President Ford by overselling the programme.

In 1979, the Civil Service review panel ordered the FDA to reconsider their sacking of Dr Morris, firstly because he had been motivated by public welfare, and also because the Civil Service Reform Act of 1978 was designed in part to afford additional protection to whistle blowers, or employees, who exposed practices which they believed to be a violation of law, rule, or regulation, or to constitute among other things, a danger to the public health or safety.

Testimony given by Dr Morris, to the Senate Committee on Ways and Means, on 5 March 1987 showed that by August 1982, there were 1,571 lawsuits filed by individuals who had suffered serious adverse reactions from the swine Flu vaccination.

Of these by 5 March 1987, 290 had been settled at a cost of $57,000,000, and another 693 were still pending, with the amount requested by plaintiffs of $1,027,000.000. He said:

:
These figures give some idea of the consequences resulting from a program in which the federal government assumes liability of a product known to produce in a indeterminate number of recipients, serious damage to health …when I left the Food And Drug Administration in 1976, there was no available technique to measure reliably and consistently neurotoxicity or potency of most of the vaccine then in use, including DPT vaccines. Today, 11 years later, the situation remains essentially the same.

Harvey Fineberg, in his book called “The Swine Flu Affair: Decision-Making on a Slippery Disease” likes to convince himself that the message that the epidemic would never happen wasn’t really made, according to those there at the time. It would be more accurate to say that the vaccine machine ensured that the message wasn’t “heard” by drowning it out with rampant rhetoric for reasons of its own.

But the really telling thing about the whole Swine Flu issue, is that the people that really matter, still have not, and will not, learn anything from the issue.

For instance at a meeting on Thursday, February 29, 1996, at the Advisory commission on childhood vaccine, Dr Peter Patriarca discussed the Influenza Pandemic Plan. On page 2 of this plan is this:

:
The successes and failures of the Swine Influenza Program of 1976 have been reviewed in detail elsewhere. Perhaps the most important failure of the program was the lack of a preemptive and proactive plan, which could have addressed many of the technical, political and administrative issues that ultimately hindered program implementation. This experience, more than any other, has underscored the need for the development of a comprehensive, contemporary and action-oriented plan.”

Only someone totally blinkered to the actual facts and problems that lay behind the vaccine – that the Swine Flu vaccine was unnecessary and useless, could write such utter rubbish as this. BUT… it is important to know these things, because these are the foundation stones to medical myths ultimately enshrined in text books. And if you do an internet search, you will find that there are people out there who truly think that the 46 million doses given, prevented a swine flu epidemic of the proportions of 1918.

As I've watched every year from 1990, 'this year might be the big one' influenza risk rhetoric being ramped up in the media, I can’t help but wonder whether, if the reporters who fall so easily, every year, to the scare mongering of today, really understood the issues behind it, whether things might be different.

I doubt it. Because I don’t think this isn’t about commonsense and never has been. It’s about money.

Even now, the fact that there are literally thousands of people in this country who have never had ordinary influenza in their lives, and are never likely to, is quite irrelevant. The fact that there are other ways to deal with influenza is quite irrelevant.

All the health department and the media want you to do, is believe that you are going to get flu, to get frightened, and go and have the vaccine. If not that, then Tamiflu is what they want you to have next on your shopping list.

Not something called common sense, self reliance and alternative medicine.
 

Kim99

Veteran Member
justwondering, would you mind consolidating your post ~ without the anger?
If I'm reading this correctly, we need to have large doses of vitamins and minerals( vitamin C and selenium are important), cut out the sugar, and calm down. Have I got it right? Anything else? I really appreciate that you are sharing your knowledge with us. The main stream media is not exactly helpful.

Thanks, Kim


Obviously, I'm talking about your post # 111. Thanks, again.
 
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library lady

Veteran Member
Immune Overreaction

JustWondering,

I'd like to suggest you read "The Great Influenza: The Epic of the Greatest Plague in History" by John M. Barry. It's new, but considered a definitive work.

Barry argues -- substantiated by the latest medical findings -- that the 1918 flu was particularly hard on young, healthy people. Many died from immune system overreaction to the virus, the so-called cytokine storm, "a massive attack using every lethal weapon the body possesses." In essence, the force of the reaction to the virus entering the lungs was the cause of death. And with this flu, the healthiest people, with the strongest immune response, died the fastest.

So while it's generally true that flu attacks the old, the young, and the debilitated, we may be facing a very different situation with avian flu. There may, in fact, be suggested modes of treatment that aim at dampening immune response.

See also another new book (sorry, I don't have the complete information in front of me) called "A Fever of War," about the role of the US army in spreading influenza by sending soldiers back and forth to the Front in World War I in dangerously overcrowded ships.

library lady
 
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Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
My grandmother was one of the victims of post vaccine Guillain Barre. Since then I've always looked at this sort of thing with a scant eye.
 

CanadaSue

Membership Revoked
I'll be offline for several days...

Moving - but before I go...

My only concern right now, (should the buckshee info coming out of China be true), is that there's a current risk of this going global BEFORE the lethality factor is considerably dropped. Spansih Flu however was preceded by a number of outbreaks of flu or flu-like that eventually fizzled. This may simply be something of the sort. Whatever it is, that's a mighty strong reaction by the Chinese so I have to think something is going on.

I'm not counting on China for accurate, timeyl information nor am I counting on any health agency for same. Their releases - by the time they're released - will be more 'historic' in nature.

I still am puzzled as to how this subtype is getting into humans - the receptor cells simply don't match up with the hemagglutinen & I've yet to find a satisfactory explanation. The hemagglutinen is supposedly changing but... to what?

There won't be any flu vax & I certqainly hope no one is 'counting' opn that. Currently, a year's production world wide MIGHT produce enough doses for the US. The lead time needed for a pandemic strain to be identified & the vax production process to get under way means it's just not going to be available to more than a minute % of the world's population.

I wouldn't touch Tamiflu or other antivirals with a 10 foot pole - too many risks/side effects & the benefits are dubious. Best best is preparation & prevention. Yes, max out basic health with proper nutrition, exercise & supplementation. Yes avoid fear & panic. Concern? Sure but fear WILL zorch your system not to mention make it impossible to think clearly.

My primary 'weapon' is avoidance - isolation of self & family as much as is possible. Love to say I can avoid 100% of others 100% of the time during an outbreak but I don't know that. I'll do what I can & consider that if the complication/death rate drops to even the 'high' of Spanish Flu - odds are overwhelmingly in my favour.

My major concerns increasingly revolve around the socio-economic dislocations we MIGHT see if many are taken ill within a short time frame, coupled with a long recovery time. People will be essentially on their own & if they're not prepared for that... well.... they'll have to deal with the consequences of that. Certain supplies may be rationed or simply not available for some time.

It's not my place to tell anyone what to do. Information on what people can consider has been posted by many here over a fair bit of time. I still worry about the unknowns & there still ARE unknowns - there have to be. I'd rather they reamin unknowns then become overly familiar & unpleasant realities, though...
 

Martin

Deceased
Medium level flu pandemic could kill up to 207,000 in USA, says CDC Director

Julie Gerberding, CDC Director, said a mere medium-sized flu pandemic could kill up to 207,000 people in the USA and place nearly three-quarters of a million people in hospital. Experts fear we may be sitting on a flu-pandemic time bomb. The culprit - the bird flu H5N1 virus.





i-Newswire, 2005-05-29 - If the H5N1 virus were to evolve ( mutate ) so that infected humans could pass the virus onto other humans, the effects would be devastating on a world scale. At the moment, the H5N1 virus has infected many birds and some humans in Asia, especially South East Asia.

Julie Gerberding said a flu pandemic born from the H5N1 virus would last much longer than current seasonal flu epidemics. This one could prevail throughout the year.

Countries worst hit by the H5N1 virus ( which can only be transmitted to humans from birds ) are Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and to a certain extent, China.

Why H5N1 is of particular concern

Of the 15 avian influenza virus subtypes, H5N1 is of particular concern for several reasons. H5N1 mutates rapidly and has a documented propensity to acquire genes from viruses infecting other animal species. Its ability to cause severe disease in humans has now been documented on two occasions. In addition, laboratory studies have demonstrated that isolates from this virus have a high pathogenicity and can cause severe disease in humans. Birds that survive infection excrete virus for at least 10 days, orally and in faeces, thus facilitating further spread at live poultry markets and by migratory birds.

The epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza caused by H5N1, which began in mid-December 2003 in the Republic of Korea and is now being seen in other Asian countries, is therefore of particular public health concern. H5N1 variants demonstrated a capacity to directly infect humans in 1997, and have done so again in Viet Nam in January 2004. The spread of infection in birds increases the opportunities for direct infection of humans. If more humans become infected over time, the likelihood also increases that humans, if concurrently infected with human and avian influenza strains, could serve as the “mixing vessel” for the emergence of a novel subtype with sufficient human genes to be easily transmitted from person to person. Such an event would mark the start of an influenza pandemic.

Influenza pandemics: can they be averted? ( 1 )

Based on historical patterns, influenza pandemics can be expected to occur, on average, three to four times each century when new virus subtypes emerge and are readily transmitted from person to person. However, the occurrence of influenza pandemics is unpredictable. In the 20th century, the great influenza pandemic of 1918-1919, which caused an estimated 40 to 50 million deaths worldwide, was followed by pandemics in 1957-1958 and 1968-1969.

Experts agree that another influenza pandemic is inevitable and possibly imminent.

Most influenza experts also agree that the prompt culling of Hong Kong's entire poultry population in 1997 probably averted a pandemic.

Several measures can help minimize the global public health risks that could arise from large outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in birds. An immediate priority is to halt further spread of epidemics in poultry populations. This strategy works to reduce opportunities for human exposure to the virus. Vaccination of persons at high risk of exposure to infected poultry, using existing vaccines effective against currently circulating human influenza strains, can reduce the likelihood of co-infection of humans with avian and influenza strains, and thus reduce the risk that genes will be exchanged. Workers involved in the culling of poultry flocks must be protected, by proper clothing and equipment, against infection. These workers should also receive antiviral drugs as a prophylactic measure.

When cases of avian influenza in humans occur, information on the extent of influenza infection in animals as well as humans and on circulating influenza viruses is urgently needed to aid the assessment of risks to public health and to guide the best protective measures. Thorough investigation of each case is also essential. While WHO and the members of its global influenza network, together with other international agencies, can assist with many of these activities, the successful containment of public health risks also depends on the epidemiological and laboratory capacity of affected countries and the adequacy of surveillance systems already in place.

While all these activities can reduce the likelihood that a pandemic strain will emerge, the question of whether another influenza pandemic can be averted cannot be answered with certainty.

Clinical course and treatment of human cases of H5N1 avian influenza

Published information about the clinical course of human infection with H5N1 avian influenza is limited to studies of cases in the 1997 Hong Kong outbreak. In that outbreak, patients developed symptoms of fever, sore throat, cough and, in several of the fatal cases, severe respiratory distress secondary to viral pneumonia. Previously healthy adults and children, and some with chronic medical conditions, were affected.

Tests for diagnosing all influenza strains of animals and humans are rapid and reliable. Many laboratories in the WHO global influenza network have the necessary high-security facilities and reagents for performing these tests as well as considerable experience. Rapid bedside tests for the diagnosis of human influenza are also available, but do not have the precision of the more extensive laboratory testing that is currently needed to fully understand the most recent cases and determine whether human infection is spreading, either directly from birds or from person to person.

Antiviral drugs, some of which can be used for both treatment and prevention, are clinically effective against influenza A virus strains in otherwise healthy adults and children, but have some limitations. Some of these drugs are also expensive and supplies are limited.

Experience in the production of influenza vaccines is also considerable, particularly as vaccine composition changes each year to match changes in circulating virus due to antigenic drift. However, at least four months would be needed to produce a new vaccine, in significant quantities, capable of conferring protection against a new virus subtype.

( 1 )SOURCE: WHO

http://i-newswire.com/pr22665.html
 

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
I would also point out that the guillan-barre fiasco was due to a doctor in MI, misunderstanding an CDC teleconference, and looking VERY hard FOR GB, and telling many colleagues to look.....post '76 evaluations indicated that the GB incidence (when finally correctly evaluated) were BELOW annual norms, and several Scandinavian countries innoculated several million people with zero GB....the numbers have been posted here before....
 

almost ready

Inactive
GB fiasco

forget the disinfo. I have a friend who's dad died of it due to the swine flu shot.

It was real and fatal. And awful beyond belief.
 

Martin

Deceased
Deaths in New Delhi India and Qinghai China Linked Via H5N1?

Recombinomics Commentary
May 29, 2005

The 121 reported deaths linked to the bird flu deaths at the Qinghai Lake Nature Reserve have not been addressed by announcements out of China. There have been blanket denials of human H5N1 cases which have specifically mentioned a lack of pneumonia deaths. However, the 121 fatalities in 18 communities in Gangcha county have not been pneumonia deaths. The reported cases have fever and vomiting, but did not have respiratory problems.

Earlier reports of H5N1 deaths in Vietnam included cases that did not initially present as respiratory cases. There was one well described case in the New England Journal of Medicine with neurological involvement. Such involvement with H5N1 in poultry and laboratory mice and ferrets is well know and recent reports on the tiger deaths in Thailand decribed neurologic involvement of H5N1..

The initial reports on the dead geese at Qinghai Lake indicated they did not die of H5N1 infections, suggesting an unusual pathology. The initial reports described the deaths of 178 bar -headed geese. The geese can migrate 1000 miles in a day and many nest in the nature reserve after arriving in May and June from the northern plains of India. The initial dead geese were found on May 4, which would be the time of early arrivals from India.

In early May, New Delhi, in northern India, was experiencing an outbreak of meningitis. A small percentage of cases were laboratory confirmed bacterial meningitis. The case fatality rate was about 10%. The number of cases in India has continued to rise and after a lull in reported cases, the numbers have begun to rise again. Although initial cases were in New Delhi, additional cases near the northern plains have been reported.

Recently, the detection of H5N1 antibodies in three poultry workers in India has been disclosed. The serum from these patients was collected in 2002, detected at the end of 2004, and reported recently. The poultry workers had not traveled in 2002, suggesting locally acquired infections. India has denied H5N1 infections in their report to OIE and specifically mentioned the deaths of 250 pigeons that died at a temple in 2004 in northeast India.

The origin of the H5N1 in the bar-headed geese has not been determined, but the wintering in northern India raises the possibility that asymptomatic geese may have been present in northern India. The coincidence between the outbreak of meningitis in New Delhi and the migration of bar-headed geese to Qinghai Lake in China may be significant.

Unfortunately, neither India nor Chia have reported on the H5N1 status of the dead patients. Only the birds have been laboratory confirmed to be H5N1 positive.

The monitoring of H5N1 in Asia has been scandalously poor and the widespread outbreaks of H5N1 has clearly put the world's health at increased risk. The members of the World Health Association meeting in Geneva recently passed regulations giving the WHO authority to investigate incidents such as those reported in India and China linked to the H5N1 positive geese.

Clearly now is an appropriate time to implement the new regulations and clarify the status of H5N1 in humans in India and China.


http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=1401307
 
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