BLOG An Irish Prepper's view of the potential effects of a Russian/Ukraine War in Ireland

[Melodi]

I wasn't sure where to post this so decided on a stand-alone thread for now - but mods can move it if they like - this is an e-mail blog from a friend of mine who is one of those rare birds, a somewhat liberal Prepper here in Ireland. He's also getting an advanced degree in pre-1600 cooking techniques and Medieval studies. He is also somewhat involved with his Finnish wife in SCA (Middle Ages club) activities where they most do a lot of wonderful "period" cooking. His blog is called "Gentle Decline" because he has mostly expected the modern world just to sort of fall apart - which makes this special edition mid-week blog even more interesting...

Russia & Ukraine: Gentle Decline Special Edition People have been asking about what to do with regard to Russia & Ukraine. Here's an attempt at an answer, or at least a starting point. Drew Shiel Hello. This is a (short) special edition, because I’ve had a number of people in various different media ask, “What should we do if Russia invades Ukraine?”. Wars are very much not my area of expertise. I deal with food history and climate, verging over into trade and supply lines, both historical and modern. I’ve avoided military history as much as possible. But wars do, generally, have an impact on supply lines. So I can talk about that. I hope that answers people’s questions, to some degree. Realistically it’s probably better to do your own thinking about this, rather than outsource it to a food historian and shouter-about-climate. But treat this as a starting point. There’s the side question of “Will Russia invade Ukraine?”, and that’s… completely out of my wheelhouse. But I’ve been reading around, and the general opinion of most of the people I respect seems to be that it’s nigh-on inevitable. The preparations Russia has been making are expensive and inconvenient, and there’s little enough to be had for them from bluffing. You don’t gather thousands of soldiers, with all their equipment, from various parts of a very large country, as well as moving in ships and planes and so on, in January and February in a cold part of the world, without having firm intentions. The general idea seems to be that as soon as the Winter Olympics are over - “because Russia”, said one contact - the tanks start to roll. We’ll see how that comes out. Ukraine is not yet a member of NATO, although it’s somewhere in the process of joining. Russia is very firm on the idea that it should not be, but also doesn’t get any say in it; that’s one of the reasons they’re looking to invade. Indeed, Ukraine is also due to apply to join the EU in 2024; a general movement out of the Russian sphere of influence. So if Russia invades, NATO is not yet obliged to respond. NATO may, however, want to respond, because while Ukraine isn’t a member yet, they need to show support. So it’s complicated. (This terrible summary of the situation brought to you by someone who has, again, avoided military history as much as possible. But you get the gist.) For more detail, take a look here: Dmitri Alperovitch @DAlperovitch I’ve been convinced since mid December that the RU invasion of UKR is very likely. But I recognize that a lot of people disagree (not least of all, many in UKR government — at least publicly) It is always good to reevaluate your assumptions so let’s red team the alternatives February 10th 2022 434 Retweets1,581 Likes and also here, an additional commentary on the thread above: Pwn All The Things @pwnallthethings Good thread, and mostly where I am on this as well. But a bunch of extra points perhaps worth mentioning while we're here Dmitri Alperovitch @DAlperovitch I’ve been convinced since mid December that the RU invasion of UKR is very likely. But I recognize that a lot of people disagree (not least of all, many in UKR government — at least publicly) It is always good to reevaluate your assumptions so let’s red team the alternatives February 10th 2022 133 Retweets276 Likes From my side of things, there are two outcomes: NATO chunters and grumbles, but doesn’t do anything, or NATO responds with military force. Since Russia has already annexed Crimea (generally held by the rest of the world to still be a part of Ukraine), and NATO has done nothing but chunter, my guess is currently on the former. Certainly, there’ll be a gap before there’s any response from the alliance. So in supply lines, and in the short term, the issues are goods coming from Ukraine, and goods coming from Russia. Ukraine supplies a lot of raw materials, and not an awful lot of manufactured goods - some machinery, mostly in the heavier steel end of things. So there’s not a lot of consumer impact there. Goods coming from Russia include gas supplies, though, and that’s a concern. If Russia stops supplying gas to Europe - and that’s a definite possibility - then prices are going to rocket. Japan, for example, is already diverting ships carrying gas from the US to Europe, so it’s pretty clear they think there’s going to be a market. (Image from Who is the biggest trading partner of Ukraine?, empr.media) A lot of households in Ireland and the UK depend on gas for heating, and so do a lot of commercial premises. A smaller number use it for cooking as well (and many professional kitchens in restaurants, hotels, and takeaways). It’s unlikely that gas will be completely unavailable; it is moderately to very likely that the price of it will go up a long way. So that’s going to be one of the very first things to look at: do you have a non-gas way to heat your home and/or workplace? If you haven’t got other options (wood-burning stove or fireplace, oil heating, electrical heating), then it’s worthwhile getting an electrical heater or two. You can unplug them when you don’t need them, and you can move them around the house to wherever they’re needed. If eventually NATO does move in, then we have a hot war the like of which we haven’t had in about three generations. I know two things about 21st century hot wars. One, I know almost nothing and should shut up, and two, supply lines will be affected, because they’re the most delicate bit of our modern civilisation, and they’re already pretty shaky. Usefully, many companies are looking at shortening them, getting goods previously manufactured in China or Korea or Vietnam produced in Europe (for European firms) or the Americas (for American firms). Less than usefully, that’ll take years to spin up fully, and the Ukraine situation is happening now. But: if supply lines are in trouble, you have to depend on what’s local. For Ireland, that’s broadly ok for a few months; we might not get much in the way of new electronics, but we won’t starve. The UK is less well off. So refer back to my long-ago issue on stockpiling, most of which applies pretty neatly. My readers are mostly in Ireland, the UK and the US. Ireland is “neutral”, which means we won’t be directly involved in any war in the near future. The UK and US are both very definitely members of NATO. It’s not easy for Russia to reach the US without missiles; the UK is slightly more within reach. In a hot war situation, people in the UK might be advised to move out of the bigger cities, even temporarily, so it’s worth keeping that in mind. No ads or promos in this issue; it seems a bit gauche. Feel absolutely free to forward this on to anyone to whom it might be of interest or use. If you liked this post from Gentle Decline, why not share it? ​

 

[Plain Jane]

It seems like we are coming full circle. I remember that back in the 1970s the rural hippie communes had a strong prepping mentality. Their big problem was that they attracted a lot of freeloaders who were unwilling to do any of the work. The communes soon fell apart.

Hopefully locals can network to build on a variety of useful skills and resources.

 

[Sacajawea]

Rhetorical question:

How can one recommend electric space heaters if gas prices exceed budget capabilities or isn't available? Do people generally not know that there has been a big shift from coal-fired power plants (that make electricity) to NGas plants? [Green energy initiatives]

I'd recommend stocking up on lamp oil & make candles. Make quilts. Maybe buy a peat cooker/heater. [which will negate any progress in clean air....]

 

[mecoastie]

Rhetorical question:

How can one recommend electric space heaters if gas prices exceed budget capabilities or isn't available? Do people generally not know that there has been a big shift from coal-fired power plants (that make electricity) to NGas plants? [Green energy initiatives]

I'd recommend stocking up on lamp oil & make candles. Make quilts. Maybe buy a peat cooker/heater. [which will negate any progress in clean air....]

Quick thought on that is electricity is avail from multiple fuel sources or at least used to be. I dont think you can buy solid fuel cookers in Ireland anymore. I was researching a Waterford stove I have and thought I saw that on their website.

 

[mecoastie]

It seems like we are coming full circle. I remember that back in the 1970s the rural hippie communes had a strong prepping mentality. Their big problem was that they attracted a lot of freeloaders who were unwilling to do any of the work. The communes soon fell apart.

Hopefully locals can network to build on a variety of useful skills and resources.

I have been getting involved in local politics and committees in the last couple years. Particularly the local food movement. I am fortunate that it is pretty active where I am. What I find fascinating is that local food is one of the few things that still transcends our political divide. I work with good folks who have nothing in common with me other than a shared local food vision.

 

[Melodi]

The only way to get a solid fuel cooker is from one company that reconditions old ones - it is a plus if you have an old one to trade-in that they can rebuild and sell to someone else.

Now, this was just before COVID, so I'm not sure about the situation now - but it was pretty much impossible to get anything new both because of supply and various mandates.

I think Drew was recommending the small electric heaters you can get here, many of which have "oil" or gel inside that heats up and last longer, as a short-term measure especially for when there is still power but the gas or oil heating isn't possible.

I know him personally and both he and his wife are expert camp cooks and even have at sept up for cooking over a fire in their Dublin back garden. But a lot of apartments in Ireland have no option for fire or stoves, so as a short-term measure a limited use of electric heaters, electric blankets, and hot water bottles is a good idea.

 

[Millwright]

He's also getting an advanced degree in pre-1600 cooking techniques

Could become a handy bit of knowledge in the near future.

 

[Melodi]

Could become a handy bit of knowledge shortly.

He's very good at it and in teaching people, whenever I have a deep question on such things I email him. He's got access to all sorts of resources most people don't, especially through the University Archives.

As part of his research, he has to go through old "manner rolls" which are one of the few ways we know exactly what at least elite households were buying to get themselves and their servants/retainers through a year - and that is exceptionally useful from a prepping point of view.

It gives a good perspective on the pre-modern and "early" modern (aka Tudor/Elizabethan/Jacobean)household compound needed to sustain itself, along with what had to be imported and kept under lock and key and what was common.

This is really important LOCAL information, even better than information coming out of England; which is where most "Small Holding" movement information comes from (the UK and Irish version of homestead/prepping).

By the way, there are a lot of rather liberal preppers out there, I've known a lot of them in California and Colorado - most are socially liberal but personally frugal (kind of like me in a lot of ways). Some households and groups are sorts of a mix of liberal and libertarian which also helps, especially those that move to the countryside and form small groups or communities.

I'm pretty sure that Drew and his wife will move either closer to us or somewhere in the West of Ireland when their studies are done, his wife is also a professional (I forget what but she has to travel sometimes) so that also has to be worked around in terms of their own prepping.

I mean they know they are always welcome here or at several other rural homes and farms, and I know they won't hesitate to "bug out" if they need to. Their skills would be welcome in any sane homestead or farm.

 

[Crusty Echo 7]

 

[WalknTrot]

It's good to have personal options, anytime. The most prudent thing to do is to expect the unexpected.
Yeah..I kinda laughed at the electric heater comment. Coming from and directed at countries who've hitched their wagon to unreliable solar and wind, (AND Russian gas) and killed domestic nuke and coal (and peatfires). Ha. Ha.

Anyway..my sick, gallows humor aside, I know the author pleads ignorance of politics, but I doubt anything is going to happen in or around Ukraine besides serious puffing and flexing from Russia. If by some stretch, Putin does move, NATO will let them roll on in without a meaningful peep, because when it comes down to it, who is NATO but the U.S., and what's left of Biden is (technically) in charge. 'Nuff said...tells ya all you need to know.

 

[Millwright]

If by some stretch, Putin does move, NATO will let them roll on in without a meaningful peep, because when it comes down to it, who is NATO but the U.S., and what's left of Biden is (technically) in charge.

Surely biden didn't sell the Ukraine to Putin, did he?

NAWWWWWWW

We'd only give a token defense and pull out...probably in a screwed up fashion like our last failed exit.

 

[Sacajawea]

We also have a pretty lively local food community around me. And it is a mix of people of different religious & political persuasions.... and everyone gets along and helps each other out.

The pre-1600s cooking techniques are of interest. Especially the preserving end of it and how that impacts the prep to cook later on. I'm already pretty good over a wood fire (lots of cast iron) but those old recipes would be invaluable.

 

[nomifyle]

Thanks for the information and the links.

God is good all the time

Judy

 

[Melodi]

We also have a pretty lively local food community around me. And it is a mix of people of different religious & political persuasions.... and everyone gets along and helps each other out.

The pre-1600s cooking techniques are of interest. Especially the preserving end of it and how that impacts the prep to cooking later on. I'm already pretty good over a wood fire (lots of cast iron) but those old recipes would be invaluable.

One of the things I learned here back in the 90s was how important it is to look at pre-1600 or at least pre-late 19th-century ways of doing things locally.

Things I learned studying this as much as possibly could with books from the library we used to have (before 2008 cuts) and the early Irish internet were important. Here are a few examples.

The climate does not allow most drying of food, what was done was in smokehouses or in the chimneys where there was often a ledge for putting hunks of salted meat to dry a bit. Trying to do long-term storage of dried foods even with modern techniques is dicey though using an Excalibur dehydrator and storing in glass will help them last longer.

The Irish had NO home tradition of sausage making and did very little home curing; the American culture gets that from German, Italian and Scandinavian immigrants. In Ireland, people were so poor (for the last 600 years or so) that they raised two pigs if they were lucky each Winter. One was "The Gentleman who Pays the Rent" that was sold to provide cash for the Landlord (most people were tenant farmers) and the other went to the butcher who made sausages and bacon/salt pork there and took part of the pig as his pay.

The Irish had NO tradition in modern times (like the last 600 years) of making yeast bread, almost all the wheat that was grown here was sent to England and when Wheat flour finally started to become affordable again in the 19th century, the newfangled Baking Soda was on the market and could be used with a softer (cheaper) flour so that became the standard. Except in the city of Waterford where a homesick English ship's captain told a local baker what he wanted. The result tasted good, but looked like something out of cake wrecks, today they are mostly just made with regular bread dough and look a little less like amebas, but being irregular is part of their charm.

Finally (and I'll stop at this point, I'm happy to keep going in Granny's Kitchen) potatoes here are probably no longer a viable survival food (per Seed Saver's Ireland) The Blight is still endemic in the soil and when the wind blows on humid, warm, Summer days - boom there goes your potatoes and your tomatoes unless you have blight spray and/or grow them in pots on porches or green houses.

So it is important to know what the Irish ate, gathered and processed pre potatoes - and it was a diet high in butter, cream, cheeses, eggs and some oats, barely and other cold hardy grains (as well a berries, apples and other hedge row plants). Also nettles, lots and lots of high protein nettles.

Anyway everywhere is local, see how traditional people and later settlers (or groups) processed and saved food - here salt is vital as is pickling, canning never caught on here as people couldn't really afford glass jars or lids until the 20th century (then it was mostly jelly and jam making).

Drew has been a great help as has the SCA in general, I've been a member since about 1980 and you do find a lot of actual preppers and/or people with a prepping mind set there. Not everyone, but it is kind of impossible to seriously study the European Middle Ages without paying some attention to food, famines and how they affect societies.

 

[Sacajawea]

Plan B always needs plan C, through Z.