WAR 04-18-2015-to-04-24-2015_____THEWINDSofWAR

Lilbitsnana · Apr 23, 2015

posted for fair use

Date 23.04.2015

US report: Chinese experts warn of expanding North Korean nuclear arsenal

Chinese nuclear experts reportedly believe North Korea may already have a nuclear arsenal of 20 warheads. They also claim Pyongyang has the uranium enrichment capacity to double that figure by 2016, a US newspaper says.

North Korean missile tests

The figures, which were published in the "Wall Street Journal" on Thursday, were presented to US nuclear specialists in a closed-door meeting in February.

The estimate is significantly higher than any previously known Chinese assessment. It also exceed those recently made by US experts who put North Korea's current arsenal at between 10 and 16 nuclear weapons - suggesting that Pyongyang is moving faster down the nuclear path than previously thought.

Challenges to denuclearize

Experts now believe that North Korea's sizeable nuclear stockpile could further complicate international efforts to persuade Pyongyang to denuclearize.

"The more they believe they have a fully functional nuclear arsenal and deterrent, the more difficult it's going to be to walk them back from that," Siegfried Hecker, a leading expert on North Korea's nuclear program told the "Wall Street Journal."

Beijing concerns

In Beijing, there is growing concern about the nuclear ambitions of its wayward ally, which carried out nuclear tests in 2006, 2009 and 2013.

A recent US report warned that North Korea appeared poised to expand its nuclear program over the next five years, claiming that, in a worst case scenario, it could have up to 100 atomic arms by 2020.

In 2012, Pyongyang demonstrated its rocket capabilities by sending a satellite into orbit. A test to show it has mastered the re-entry technology required for an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) has yet to be conducted, however.

Ongoing progress

Expert opinion on how much progress North Korea has made remains divided. One key question is how close the North is to being able to miniaturize a nuclear device which could be fitted on the tip of a missile.

In a white paper published in January, the South Korean defense ministry said North Korea had already developed its miniaturization technology to a "significant" level.

ksb/kms (AFP, dpa)

http://www.dw.de/us-report-chinese-experts-warn-of-expanding-north-korean-nuclear-arsenal/a-18402338

Housecarl · Apr 23, 2015

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http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2015/04/23/al-qaeda-american-hostages-killed/

White House: Americans Held By, Working With Al Qaeda Killed In US Counterterrorism Operations

April 23, 2015 9:52 AM

WASHINGTON (AP) — Two hostages held hostage by al Qaeda and two Americans working with the terror group were killed in U.S. counterterrorism operations earlier this year, the White House said Thursday.

The White House said American Warren Weinstein, an American held by al Qaeda since 2011, and Giovanni Lo Porto, an Italian national held by al Qaeda since 2012, were killed in a January operation in the border region of Afghanistan and Pakistan. The operation targeted an al Qaeda-associated compound and there was no reason to believe either hostage was present at the location, the White House said.

The U.S. believes that Ahmed Farouq, an American who the White House says was an al Qaeda leader, was killed in the same operation. U.S. officials have also concluded that Adam Gadahn, an American who had served as a spokesman for the terror network, was killed in a separate American operation in January.

The White House says Farouq and Gadhan were not specifically targeted in the operations, nor did the U.S. have information indicating their presence at the sites.

President Barack Obama was set to appear in the White House briefing room at mid-morning to make a statement on the incidents.

Housecarl · Apr 23, 2015

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http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/23/us-yemen-security-idUSKBN0NC2LD20150423

World | Thu Apr 23, 2015 9:37am EDT
Related: World, Yemen

Saudi-led coalition launches air strikes throughout Yemen: residents

ADEN

(Reuters) - Warplanes from a Saudi-led coalition pounded Houthi militiamen and military bases with at least 20 air strikes throughout Yemen on Thursday, residents said, despite Riyadh saying it was winding down its campaign.

On Tuesday, the Sunni Arab alliance announced an end to its month-old bombing campaign in Yemen but strikes have continued. A Saudi spokesman later said forces would continue to target movements of the Iran-allied Houthi militia.

Most of the raids hit Houthi vehicles and gatherings on battlefields pitting the group against supporters of president Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi in six central and southern provinces.

Several other air strikes hit military camps housing units loyal to the Houthis in the Western Red Sea port of Hodaida.

One strike hit Houthi tanks near Aden, a port in the south, residents told Reuters.

In Ibb in central Yemen, residents reported an intense series of strikes early on Thursday on Houthi positions and weapon warehouses in the region.

They said targets included a military base in the town of al-Kafr, unspecified sites in Hubaysh, as well as a college on the outskirts of Ibb and another in the nearby city of Yarim.

In Aden late on Wednesday, five Houthi militiamen were killed at a checkpoint while fighting against local forces and eight other Houthi fighters were killed in heavy clashes in southern Dalea province, pro-Hadi fighters said.

(Reporting By Mohammed Ghobari and Mohammed Mukhashaf; Writing by Noah Browning; Editing by Dominic Evans)

Housecarl · Apr 23, 2015

IMHO with the "relations" between Baghdad and Tehran, don't be surprised if when the last of these aircraft are delivered they're turned over to the Iranians....

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150423/ml--iraq-fc5d0d2c08.html

Iraq expects new US-made F-16s in July to boost IS fight

Apr 23, 9:08 AM (ET)
By SAMEER N. YACOUB

(AP) Displaced people return to their homes, in Ramadi, 70 miles (115 kilometers) west of...
Full Image

BAGHDAD (AP) — Iraq will at long last be getting the first batch of F-16 fighter jets it ordered four years ago, its air force commander said Thursday, a shipment that is expected to boost Iraq's capabilities in battling the extremist Islamic State group.

Lt. Gen. Anwar Hama Amin said the fighters would arrive on July 12 along with the U.S.-trained Iraqi pilots and spare parts and would immediately begin carrying out operations, according to a statement posted late Wednesday on the Defense Ministry's web site.

The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad did not confirm the date, and only said the planes were expected by the summer.

Iraq first ordered the 18 jets for $3 billion in 2011 to supplement its almost nonexistent air force. A year later, then-Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki complained over the delays in delivering the planes.

(AP) Iraqi security forces and tribal fighters regain control of the Northern...
Full Image

The pilots have been training with three of the planes in Arizona and plans to send them last year to Balad air force base in Iraq were scrapped after Islamic State militants threatened the area, according to an article on the Pentagon website.

U.S. personnel and contractors were evacuated from the base last summer after an IS blitz overran large swaths of the country, along with significant stretch of territory in neighboring Syria.

Iraq's air force has been at its lowest point and currently relies on U.S. planes to carry out airstrikes in the battle to dislodge IS militants from the north and west of the country.

By July, Iraq had also received a total of 13 second hand Russian Su-25 jets.

In other developments, Iraqi police and officials said Thursday that a suicide car bomb went off overnight next to a crowd of Shiite pilgrims near Balad as they were returning from a Shiite shrine the city of Samarra, killing eight and wounding 16.

Samarra is the burial site for two revered 9th century Shiite imams and on Wednesday, there was a ceremony marking the death of one of them. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.

South of the Baghdad, a bomb exploded in a market in the town of Madain on Thursday, killing three people and wounding 10 others, according to police.

---

Associated Press reporter Qassim Abdul-Zahra contributed to this report.

Housecarl · Apr 23, 2015

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http://southasiamonitor.org/detail.php?type=sl&nid=11457

After Iran n-deal, will global attention turn to Pakistan?

Posted: Apr 21, 2015
By Monish Gulati

There have been some concerns regarding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear programme arrived at in Lausanne between the P5 plus1 and Iran. A significant part of these concerns have been on issues which are “non-nuclear” in nature. A part of these concerns, such as the manner in which the economic sanctions on Iran will be lifted, relate to the implementation of the deal itself, while some of the non-nuclear concerns relate to impact of the deal after it has been operationalised. Richard N. Haass, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, saw one such concern originating not from the JCPOA but from “everything else about Iran’s foreign and defence policies”. He felt that the agreement says nothing about Iran’s missile programme, support for terrorists and proxies, or Syria or Iraq or Yemen.

That is correct to an extent but then the deal is also silent on Iran’s security concerns; valid or otherwise. The JCPOA looks at Iran’s nuclear programme without relating it to the security environment prevailing in the Middle East and seems to accept a narrative that assumes Iran to be the perpetrator and never the victim; not only during the negotiation phase but also in the future. The P5 plus1 appear to offer no security guarantees to Iran from a possible nuclear threat. The deal goes to the extent of separating out its major driver, the lifting of the economic sanctions, into those that are related to Iran’s nuclear programme and those relating to human rights and support for terrorism. This article examines some of the aspects of the Iran nuclear deal from a security perspective.

The Middle East

According to Volker Perthes, CEO of the German think tank SWF, the current megatrend in the Middle East seems to be the dissolution of a regional order. International actors while defending their vital interests in the region are looking to contain risks and threats within the region itself while enabling local partners to tackle these challenges. Saudi Arabia and Iran have emerged as the main regional antagonists, as the US steps back to a security strategy that minimises its direct involvement. A grave common threat, such as the Islamic State (IS), has only served to deepen traditional rivalries rather than unifying legitimate governments in response. Civil wars are no longer contained but are proliferating across borders and making international boundaries irrelevant, particularly between Iraq and Syria and Syria and Lebanon. Lastly, the majority of the regional states in confronting challenges such as the IS or the Assad regime in Syria have cobbled together brittle coalitions of inconvenience, rather than alliances. Every aspect of security seems to drive and define different area of cooperation for a different set of actors. For instance Turkey and Saudi Arabia, two nations with a long history of rivalry, are in high-level talks with the goal of forming a military alliance to oust the Assad regime in Syria.

Yemen

While the Saudi intervention in Yemen and the negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal seem to be unrelated events, they appear to influence each other. Iran has gained strategic space, even dominance, in its western periphery, consequent to the US intervention in Iraq. Post the nuclear deal and lifting of sanctions, Iran’s economy will be unfettered and its potential unlocked, making it potentially more assertive in defence of its national interests and that of its proxies. Saudi intervention in Yemen could have been timed to counter such an outcome in some measure.

If the Saudis had not been taken on board by the US with regards to the construct of the nuclear deal being negotiated by P5 plus 1 with Iran then, one, the Saudi-backed intervention in Yemen is possibly aimed to make the US’ job to conclude the final deal much harder; Two, to put to test Iran’s resolve and commitment to the nuclear deal. Lastly, proclaim Saudi Arabia’s readiness for a proxy power struggle, and to defend its redefined national interests aggressively in accordance with a new strategic security doctrine.

On the other hand, if the US had the Saudis onboard, then, one, the US is allowing the Saudis to clear their back yard of Iranian influence; two, in the process, Saudi Arabia gets to battle test its leadership of the recently reoriented regional alliance (GCC), its military component and other extra-regional allies. Pakistan’s reluctance to participate in Yemen would have provided the Saudis such a reality check.

Islamic State

The rise of the IS, it’s hard-line ideology and a policy to target all religious groups including Sunnis that do not support it, has further impacted the existing Shia-Sunni estrangement in the Middle East. The conflict zones in the region are a strange amalgamation of multiple transnational non-state terror groups. The failure of two states, of Syria and Iraq, has led to the emergence, in ungoverned spaces, of new territorially based quasi-sovereign entities.

A nation’s response to these threats by interventions outside its international boundary has become a norm. In this environment, what if Iran begins an air campaign in Yemen to secure the interests of its proxies but couches it as support for Yemeni Shias against ISIS/Al Qaeda; its own version of GWOT (Global war on terrorism). The IS threat also seems to drive a counter-dynamic. The need to contain the IS threat (which the Arab states have failed to curb individually or collectively) is causing the US and other Western powers to collaborate and support Iran and its proxies.

Security Guarantees

Some analysts feel that the nuclear deal provides an inherent guarantee of security. As long as Iran adheres to the provisions of the deal it is shielded from a nuclear threat despite the Israeli or the Saudi “third party” nuclear capabilities. The deal is based on Iran’s commitment to abjure nuclear weapons (yet recognising its right to nuclear power and research) within the existing security environment. There is no explicit (South Korea-type) security guarantee from the P5 plus1 even for the first 10 years when the major part of the deal is expected to be in force.

Another aspect of this narrative is that Iranian foreign policy has been adequately successful and effective without a nuclear bomb; hence lifting of the economic sanctions should be compelling enough to make the nuclear deal acceptable to Tehran. It is a tenuous supposition of the likely Arab or Israeli reaction to a possible aggressive Iranian power projection. It is probably why the P5 plus1 rescinded their initial demand for destruction/dismantling of Iranian nuclear infrastructure to one of disablement with a “breakout” period.

Pakistan

A positive spinoff from India’s point of view could be the focus on Pakistan and its nuclear capability. Recently the New York Times recommended that attention be turned to constraining Pakistan’s nuclear and strategic capabilities. The narrative coming out of Pakistan in response has been that with Iran neutralised, Pakistan remains the only nuclear-capable Islamic nation and it is US’ aim to de-nuclearise all Islamic countries. The second part of the narrative calls for the world to be made to understand why Pakistan remains “obsessed” with India and its need to possess a credible nuclear deterrent.

This Pakistani discomfort with the focus on its nukes could have contributed to its dithering over the support to Saudi Arabia in its intervention in Yemen. Pakistan’s affirmation of its faith in the UN Security Council and the desire to remain “neutral” could be more to project itself as a responsible nuclear state and to strengthen its case for membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) in case India is offered one.

But more worrisome for India would be the Pakistani tendency to play its toxic and deceitful brand of politics which was on display in the last few years on Afghanistan. It is quite a possibility that it would play on Iranian insecurities and offer it the same assurances on a nuclear deterrent that it is suspected to have offered Saudi Arabia. This would come more at Israel’s cost than Saudi Arabia and win Pakistan the Iranian cooperation and support in its neighbourhood, particularly in Afghanistan. Pakistan would be the “keeper of the twin betrothed nukes.”

(Monish Gulati is Associate Director (Strategic Affairs) with the Society for Policy Studies. He can be contacted at m_gulati_2001@yahoo.com)

Housecarl · Apr 23, 2015

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http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/23/us-iran-nuclear-talks-idUSKBN0NE1C920150423

World | Thu Apr 23, 2015 12:21pm EDT
Related: World

Diplomatic push for final Iran nuclear deal in Vienna

VIENNA

(Reuters) - U.S. Under Secretary Wendy Sherman and Tehran's Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi will resume talks about curbing Iran's nuclear program later on Thursday, Iranian media said.

The latest round of nuclear diplomacy, being held in a luxury hotel in Austria's capital, kicked off with a bilateral meeting between Iran and the European Union on Wednesday.

Iran's nuclear negotiator Hamid Baidinejad told Iranian state television that "drafting the final deal has started," declining to give further details. Months ago both sides had already announced that a final draft had been started.

Iran and the other countries in the talks -- the United States, China, France, Russia, Britain and Germany -- reached a tentative deal on April 2 and now aim to finalize the details by self-imposed end-June deadline.

Under the framework agreement, Iran agreed to slash the number of uranium enrichment centrifuges it operates and would allow more intrusive inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in exchange for sanctions relief.

The diplomatic push needs to iron out details about the timing of sanctions relief, the future of Iran's atomic research and development program, the exact nature of the IAEA's monitoring regime and what kind of uranium stockpile Tehran will be allowed to keep under any final deal.

The timing of sanctions relief was top of the agenda at Wednesday's talks.

Iran says economic sanctions must be lifted as soon as any final deal is signed, while the United States wants a gradual lifting of restrictions.

Top envoys from other world powers will join the negotiations later this week.

Related Coverage
› Iran's military nuclear activity visible under deal: Moniz
› Supply of Russian S-300 systems to Iran will not happen soon: TASS

Housecarl · Apr 23, 2015

Hummm........

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http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/would-america-back-india-war-12701

Would America Back India in a War? [1]

If India went to war with China or Pakistan, what would the United States do?

Iskander Rehman [2] [3]

Last month, I had the privilege of taking part in a Track 1.5 strategic dialogue [4] on Indo-U.S. relations. Held in New Delhi, the gathering was an unabashed success, and the richness and candor of the discussions aptly reflected the renewed momentum of the bilateral relationship. Over the course of the event, much mention was made of Obama’s recent visit, and of one document in particular: the U.S. India Joint Strategic Vision for the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region [5].

Shortly after having completed my presentation on Indo-U.S. cooperation in the Indian Ocean, I was asked a pointed question by a retired Indian Navy Admiral. Should India, queried the Admiral, read more deeply into both governments’ decision to jointly reference the importance of freedom of navigation in the South China Sea? More specifically, did this mean that the United States would provide military assistance to India in the event of a Sino-Indian naval confrontation in maritime Southeast Asia?

As the distinguished veteran concluded his remarks, I could almost hear the sighs of relief emanating from some of the U.S. government participants. Thank God, they were no doubt thinking, that this question was addressed to a non-government employee. I found myself compelled, however, to give the vague and somewhat bureaucratic response that any U.S. official would have made.

(Recommended: India's New Mega Weapon: Nuclear-Armed Supersonic Missiles [6])

Much would depend, naturally, on the circumstances of the incident, and whether China was clearly perceived as the aggressor. But, I added, one must not forget that while India was a valued strategic partner of the United States, it was not an ally. Strategic partnerships, however tight and wide-ranging they may appear, do not come with the binding security guarantees that traditionally characterize alliance structures.

And therein lies the rub. Even though the Indo-U.S. entente is perhaps this century’s single most important bilateral relationship, with the greatest potential to positively shape the Asian security environment, it is not-nor will it ever be-a formalized alliance. The reasons for this singular state of affairs are well known.

Indeed, since independence, New Delhi’s grand strategy has always been coterminous [7] with a quest for greater strategic autonomy, and with a solid aversion for any form of partnership that could lead to entanglement. This autonomy is perceived as a key enabler, allowing India to practice a “multi-vectored” diplomacy that maximizes freedom of maneuver, while minimizing the risks of friction that could flow from more solidified alignments.

(Recommended: India's Nuclear-Weapons Program: 5 Things You Need to Know [8])

Historical studies [9] have pointed to the inherent plasticity of any successful grand strategy. This is something that India’s foremost strategists have fully interiorized, with a much-discussed [10]-and unfairly lampooned-2012 study placing a strong emphasis on subtlety over “narrow linear narratives about what serves our (India’s) national interest,” in a world which is described as both fragmented and in flux. India’s grand strategy, the authors pursue, “will require a skillful management of complicated coalitions and opportunities in environments that may be inherently unstable and volatile rather than structurally settled.”

As India’s growth in wealth, influence and power becomes more manifest, it has presented the United States with a unique form of diplomatic challenge. While Chinese nationalists have argued in favor of a “new model of great power relations [11],” India’s political leadership seeks, first and foremost, a new model of strategic partnership. This partnership may come to yield a number of rich dividends in the defense realm, in terms of technology and intelligence sharing, joint training, or arms sales. Yet singularly absent are the most important components of any alliance—a clear strategic direction, and a sense of reciprocal security commitments and/or guarantees.

(Recommended: If America and China Went to War: Would India Join the Fight? [12])

India may, according to some reports, hold more joint military exercises [13] with the United States than any other country, but nobody quite knows the conditions under which Indian jawans and U.S. grunts would find themselves crouching in the same foxhole.

Similarly, both countries’ defense communities may be moving toward cooperating on issues as sensitive and as critical as aircraft carrier design, but it remains uncertain whether the U.S. Navy would intervene were the INS Vikramaditya [14] to find itself crippled by a Chinese torpedo.

To be fair, neither country expects the other to automatically intervene in the event of conflict. Indian security managers have long grappled with the grim prospect of fighting a two-front war alone, although the rapid growth in Chinese military strength and steady hemorrhaging [15] of India’s fighter squadrons have begun to raise serious questions over the continued viability of this posture. American planners, for their part, rarely factor Indian military forces into their wargaming scenarios for the Indo-Pacific. Influential champions of the Indo-U.S. relationship, such as Ashley Tellis [16], have rightly observed that it does not require clearly defined mutual security commitments in order to be transformational, and that it is in the U.S. interests to bolster Indian power regardless. By virtue of its sheer size, geographical position, and latent capabilities, there is a certain degree of automaticity to India’s emergence as a major balancing power in Asia.

Nevertheless, it would no doubt behoove security communities in both countries to more frequently discuss and game out black swan scenarios that could, depending on how they are managed (or mismanaged), either irreparably damage, or durably reinforce the Indo-U.S. security relationship.

The most oft cited, and perhaps most likely, scenario is another major terrorist attack in India, with origins that clearly trace back to elements within Pakistan’s byzantine security apparatus. The government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was widely lauded by the international community for its measured response following the Mumbai attacks [17] of 2008. Few analysts believe that the current Indian government would-or could-exert such restraint. Modi’s forceful response [18] to recent disturbances along the Indo-Pakistani border, when viewed in combination with the Indian National Security Advisor’s recent statements [19] on the need for India to adopt a more “offensive form of defense,” should act as clear signals to American observers that India cannot-and will not-simply absorb another Mumbai.

There would be enormous public pressure within India for the government to act, and a roster of punitive actions would no doubt be considered. These options might range from the establishment of a maritime exclusion zone off Pakistan’s Makran coast, to cross-border special forces raids, to standoff missile and airstrikes against terrorist training camps, with the last option being the most likely. As people such as George Perkovich have thoughtfully demonstrated [20], all of these options are fraught with risk, and have the potential for grave escalation. Yet if military inaction on the part of the Indian government is no longer conceivable, they will all need to be considered—especially if the only alternative is a large-scale mobilization of ground forces in the vein of Operation Parakram [21].

If India were to engage in a military riposte against terrorist or hybrid elements on Pakistani soil, what should be the position of the U.S. government? Should the U.S. publicly support India’s actions, or should it remain silent? It is highly unlikely that the Indo-U.S. relationship could recover were Washington to choose the latter. Perhaps more importantly, should the U.S. go beyond publicly supporting to enabling certain Indian cross-border strikes, by providing actionable intelligence? One could imagine that in some cases, providing a more accurate picture of the situation might in fact help mitigate escalation and reduce casualties, either by helping India discriminate in-between terrorist actors and civilians co-located within dense urban environments, or by helping Indian military planners more effectively tailor their response. So might the emergency provision of certain forms of military equipment, ranging from precision munitions to night vision equipment for India’s special forces. U.S. policymakers would need to carefully balance these considerations against their longstanding concerns over the risks of irredeemably alienating Pakistan’s men in khaki. These decisions would naturally be heavily influenced by a number of other externalities, such as the state of domestic and international opinion, the number and nationality of the terrorists’ victims, and the importance attached by the U.S. administration to its respective ties with each country.

If, God forbid, the crisis were to evolve into something far more serious, and U.S. intelligence officials were to get wind of the imminent deployment within Pakistan of tactical nuclear weapons [22], should they alert their Indian counterparts? Choosing to do so would almost certainly be viewed by the Pakistanis as an act of brazen hostility, but opting for silence might be perceived by New Delhi (were its intelligence services to subsequently find out), as an equally unmentionable betrayal.

The tense situation along the Sino-Indian border and how it might pertain to the future of the U.S.-India security relationship also warrants greater scrutiny. In the event of a Sino-Indian border war, would decision-makers in New Delhi once again turn in desperation to the United States for assistance, as they did during the 1962 war [23]? And if they did, would an increasingly cautious and war-weary United States respond with the same vigor of the Kennedy administration? What form could U.S. assistance take? Might the United States, for example, be able to provide vital non-kinetic assistance in the form of cyber attacks against Chinese battle networks? Could the U.S. work behind the scenes to provide Indian forces with more robust space-based surveillance intelligence and better real-time targeting information? Would such forms of covert assistance be considered less escalatory than providing India with direct military support? Or would the White House, echoing its current ambivalence to the arming of forces in Ukraine, prevaricate and/or refuse to come to India’s aid? These questions could also apply to India’s stance in the event of a Sino-U.S. war in Northeast Asia. Would New Delhi remain on the sidelines while conflict raged in-between its foremost geopolitical rival and its most powerful democratic partner? Might such an event be viewed by India as a welcome opportunity to consolidate its own position along the Sino-Indian border? Could India provide the United States and its allies with intelligence on Chinese subsurface and surface deployments in the Indian Ocean? If conflict were to spill out of the Malacca Strait and into the Indian Ocean, how would the Indian Navy and Air Force respond?

These are but a few of the contingencies that both countries’ security communities should be discussing, whether in the form of joint wargaming between both militaries or under the aegis of future Track 1.5 and Track 2 dialogues. For while the Indo-U.S. relationship will continue to make progress in times of peace, it is in times of crisis that it will be forged-for better or for worse.

Iskander Rehman, Non-Resident Fellow for South Asia, Atlantic Council of the United States.

Image: Creative Commons 2.5.

Tags
India [24]China [25]Pakistan [26]
Topics
Security [27]
Regions
Asia [28] [3]
Source URL (retrieved on April 23, 2015): http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/would-america-back-india-war-12701

Links:
[1] http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/would-america-back-india-war-12701
[2] http://nationalinterest.org/profile/iskander-rehman
[3] http://twitter.com/share
[4] http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/events/upcoming-events/detail/us-india-2015-partnering-conference
[5] https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-pres...c-vision-asia-pacific-and-indian-ocean-region
[6] http://nationalinterest.org/blog/th...eapon-nuclear-armed-supersonic-missiles-12700
[7] http://political-science.uchicago.edu/people/faculty/Staniland Institutions and Worldviews.pdf
[8] http://nationalinterest.org/feature/indias-nuclear-weapons-program-5-things-you-need-know-12697
[9] http://www.cambridge.org/us/academi...aping-grand-strategy-policy-diplomacy-and-war
[10] http://www.cprindia.org/sites/default/files/NonAlignment 2.0_1.pdf
[11] http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/142178/andrew-s-erickson-and-adam-p-liff/not-so-empty-talk
[12] http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/if-america-china-went-war-would-india-join-the-fight-12264
[13] http://www.wsj.com/articles/india-a...tary-exercises-weapons-manufacture-1407509045
[14] http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/ins-vikramaditya-may-hit-delay-cost-increases-03283/
[15] http://www.firstpost.com/india/grim...adrons-worry-parliamentary-panel-2002307.html
[16] http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/01/21/unity-in-difference-overcoming-u.s.-india-divide
[17] https://books.google.com/books?id=E...wAQ#v=onepage&q=alan kronstadt mumbai&f=false
[18] http://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahom...kills-two-bombardment-Line-Control-posts.html
[19] http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2du5ae_doval-s-defensive-offense-theory_news
[20] http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/preventingnuclearwarinsouthasia.pdf
[21] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001–02_India–Pakistan_standoff
[22] http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...d9436a-11bb-11e4-8936-26932bcfd6ed_story.html
[23] http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/forgotten-war-himalayas
[24] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/india
[25] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/china
[26] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/pakistan
[27] http://nationalinterest.org/topic/security
[28] http://nationalinterest.org/region/asia

Housecarl · Apr 23, 2015

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...a-masses-more-forces-near-Ukraine-border.html

Russia masses more forces near Ukraine border

A new build-up is under way with Russia deploying air defence units inside Ukraine and massing more troops on the border, says US State Department

By David Blair, and Tom Parfitt, Moscow
12:17PM BST 23 Apr 2015

Russia is carrying out a new military build-up in eastern Ukraine, massing troops on the border and deploying advanced air defences inside its neighbour, according to the US State Department.

More units are being deployed near Ukraine’s eastern frontier, giving Russia a stronger military presence than at any time since October.

Marie Harf, a State Department spokesman, accused Russia and its rebel allies in Ukraine of breaking the second Minsk ceasefire agreement signed in February.

More than 6,100 people have been killed in eastern Ukraine since the onset of the war in the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk last year.

The fighting has diminished since the last Minsk accord, but the situation appears to be escalating once again after a two-month lull.

“Combined Russian-separatist forces maintain a sizeable number of artillery pieces and multiple rocket launchers within areas prohibited under the Minsk accords,” said Ms Harf. “The Russian military has deployed additional air defence systems into eastern Ukraine and moved several of these nearer the front lines.”

This is Russia’s strongest deployment of air defence missiles in Ukraine for eight months. The main purpose of these units is to protect troops and tanks, suggesting that Russia is preparing for a renewed incursion into its neighbour.

Russian forces have also been training alongside their rebel allies inside Ukraine. These “complex” exercises have included the use of drones, amounting to an “unmistakable sign of Russia’s presence,” added the State Department.

One focus of the build-up appears to be the port of Mariupol, the second biggest city in Donetsk region with a population of 500,000. Mariupol was under separatist control until last August when it was retaken by Ukrainian forces.

The city lies on the E58 highway running between the Russian border and Crimea, the region which the Kremlin annexed last year. Capturing Mariupol would provide a platform for Russia to seize an overland link to Crimea.

Ukrainian sources claimed that rebel artillery and tanks fired at government forces in Shyrokyne, a village on the frontline near Mariupol, on Wednesday evening.

The US said Russian troops are also massing 300 miles further north in the border area opposite Kharkiv, a Ukrainian city which has remained under Kiev’s control throughout the crisis. The latest military movements suggest that Russia’s aim would be to threaten both Kharkiv and Mariupol simultaneously.

The Kremlin accuses America of breaking the Minsk agreement by sending hundreds of troops to western Ukraine to train the national army. Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, has denied that any of his forces are inside Ukraine.

The pro-Russian separatists said on Thursday that four of their men had been wounded by Ukrainian shelling since Wednesday.

Alexander Zakharchenko, the head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, told journalists: “Ukraine is ready to attack - our intelligence shows this.”

Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine’s pro-Western president, wants European leaders to deploy peacekeeping troops to monitor the ceasefire. The EU, which signed an association agreement with Ukraine last June, will hold a summit with Mr Poroshenko in Kiev on Monday. This week, the EU announced a further loan of £180 million to Ukraine, bringing the total granted to £1.1 billion.

Lilbitsnana · Apr 23, 2015

I don't know who did it.

News_Executive @News_Executive · 2m 2 minutes ago

BREAKING: Three members of UN mission kidnapped in eastern DR Congo: UN source -AFP

Housecarl · Apr 23, 2015

Well this isn't a good sign.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150423/eu--russia-chechnya-41b3549054.html

Chechen leader to men: Fire on unauthorized federal troops

Apr 23, 3:23 PM (ET)
By LYNN BERRY

MOSCOW (AP) — In defiance of those in Moscow eager to curb his powers, Chechnya's strongman leader told his security forces to open fire on Russian federal troops if they tried to operate in the region without his approval.

Russian law enforcement agencies have been increasingly dismayed by the growing ambitions of Ramzan Kadyrov, who in exchange for the relative calm he has installed in Chechnya after two separatist wars has been allowed to maintain his own feared security forces.

A statement from the Russian Interior Ministry, which runs the country's police, said Kadyrov's order was "unacceptable."

Since taking over after the 2004 assassination of his father, Kadyrov has ruled under the personal protection of President Vladimir Putin. The Russian leader has continued to stand by Kadyrov even as hostility to him grows in some Moscow power centers.

Kadyrov was angered by the killing of a wanted man in the Chechen capital on Sunday in a special operation carried out by federal forces stationed in Chechnya and police troops from a nearby region. He told his men not to allow this to happen again.

"I would like to officially state: Open fire if someone from Moscow or Stavropol, it doesn't matter, appears on your turf without your knowledge," he said in an address to his forces late Wednesday. "We have to be reckoned with."

Kadyrov's private army came under the spotlight last month when a Chechen police officer was arrested as one of the main suspects in the Feb. 27 murder of Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov.

Kadyrov praised the suspect, Zaur Dadaev, as a brave soldier and a deeply religious man.

Investigators, however, have been unable to reach his commander, Ruslan Geremeyev, a senior officer in Kadyrov's security forces who is suspected of involvement in the killing. This has raised concerns about Putin's authority and possible future threats to national stability.

Lawyers representing Nemtsov's children said Thursday that they have formally requested that investigators question Kadyrov and several of his closest allies in the murder case.

"The investigators are working and this is good, but on the territory of Chechnya their activities have been impeded," lawyer Vadim Prokhorov was quoted by Interfax as saying. "For example, investigators have been unable to determine the location of R. Geremeyev."

After Nemtsov's killing, some observers speculated that the slaying might have been ordered by Kadyrov's enemies in the federal government in an attempt to force Putin to replace or clamp down on the Chechen leader.

If such a plan existed, it underestimated Putin's reliance on Kadyrov. The relative stability in Chechnya is seen as one of Putin's main achievements, and he sees the burly red-haired Chechen strongman as key to maintaining the status quo.

Putin quickly sent a signal that Kadyrov was safe by awarding him the Order of Honor for distinguished public service.

Kadyrov said Thursday that he was Putin's "foot soldier" and would never question his authority.

"If I am given an order, I will fulfill it 100 percent. If it is necessary for me to go, I will go. To die, I also am ready," he told journalists in Grozny. "Therefore, to put Kadyrov on par with the president is simply ridiculous. He is our commander in chief."

---

Nataliya Vasilyeva in Moscow contributed to this report.

Housecarl · Apr 23, 2015

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Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150423/eu--europe-migrants-summit-864d10bcb2.html

EU leaders commit ships, aid to address migrant crisis

Apr 23, 7:05 PM (ET)
By RAF CASERT and LORNE COOK

(AP) Protestors march with life buoys around their necks during a demonstration outside...
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BRUSSELS (AP) — Late to the rescue, European leaders came through Thursday with pledges of big ships, aircraft and a tripling in funds to save lives in the Mediterranean after the deaths at sea of more than 1,300 migrants over the past three weeks, and agreed to lay the groundwork for military action against traffickers.

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, whose country has been faced with almost daily tragedy as rescuers plucked bodies from frigid waters, called it "a giant step forward."

Within days, Britain's aptly named HMS Bulwark and the German supply ship Berlin could be steaming to the heart of the Mediterranean in the biggest sign of the European Union's belated commitment to contain the tide of rickety ships making the perilous crossing.

The pledge of resources came as victims of the worst-ever migrant disaster in the Mediterranean were buried Thursday in Malta. Two dozen wooden caskets containing the only bodies recovered from a weekend capsizing off Libya that left at least 800 migrants feared dead were laid out for a memorial service.

(AP) Protestors carry a mock coffin of a migrant as others hold signs during a...
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None of the bodies was identified: One casket had "No. 132" scrawled on it, referring to the number of the DNA sample taken from the corpse in case a relative ever comes to claim it.

For several years as death tolls have mounted, EU leaders have done little more than deplore the loss of lives and mark tragedies with moments of silence and wreaths instead of fundamental action. When Libya disintegrated politically after the overthrow of longtime leader Moammar Gadhafi and unrest spread in neighboring countries, Europe failed to take forceful action.

On Thursday, EU leaders pledged to do more, committing at least nine vessels to monitor the waters for traffickers and intervene in case of need. Other member states, from France to Latvia, also lined up more ships, planes and helicopters that could be used to rescue migrants.

The member states agreed to triple funding to 9 million euros ($9.7 million) a month for the EU's border operation that patrols the Mediterranean.

They also assigned EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini to line up the diplomatic options that would allow EU militaries to strike against the boats used by traffickers. Officials said the lack of a strong Libyan government would likely make U.N. backing necessary.

(AP) Soldiers carry the coffins to a tent during a funeral service for 24 migrants...
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"Leaders have already pledged significantly greater support, including many more vessels, aircraft and experts" than had been anticipated before the summit, EU President Donald Tusk said.

Despite the sudden deluge of goodwill, huge questions remained about whether it would be enough to defeat the smugglers and human traffickers.

"Right now, it's a question of fixing yesterday's errors," French President Francois Hollande said.

He said the EU would hold a summit in Malta with African countries by this summer to see how the continents can work together to better deal with a crisis that has grown dramatically in recent years.

In contrast to the Italian premier, the head of another Mediterranean nation on the frontline of the tragedies was far less enthusiastic.

(AP) From left, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, Swedish Prime Minister Stefan...
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For tiny Malta, the smallest EU member state with a population of 450,000, the summit produced nothing particularly new, apart from a fresh resolve to break up the smuggling networks.

The assets being proposed "will never be enough," Malta's prime minister, Joseph Muscat said. "It is definitely not enough if the numbers that are being communicated about prospective migratory flows are anything to go by."

Over the past week alone, more than 10,000 people have been plucked from the high seas between Italy and Libya as desperate migrants fleeing war, repression and poverty threw their lot in with smugglers who charged $1,000 to $2,000 for a spot on overcrowded and unseaworthy boats to make the perilous crossing.

At least 1,300 people have died in April alone, putting 2015 on track to be the deadliest year ever.

Ending that is Europe's main challenge. Even optimists say any measures agreed at Thursday's summit would not fully stem the tide of unstable ships crossing the Mediterranean.

(AP) Migrants wait to disembark from the Italian Navy vessel 'Chimera' in the harbor of...
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But Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte insisted that Europe should not take the brunt of blame. "We also ask that Africa, the source of the problem, also collectively takes up its responsibility," Rutte said. "Last time I checked Libya was in Africa, not Europe."

Over the past year, what little political structure Libya had has collapsed. There are two rival governments, neither with any real authority, and each fighting the other on the ground. Local militias hold sway around the country, some of them with hard-line Islamist ideologies, and the Islamic State group has emerged as a strong and brutal force.

The makes any military action against traffickers there even more complicated.

"Any kind of military action can only be based on international law," said German Chancellor Angela Merkel. "There are two possibilities: either a U.N. Security Council Resolution or a unity government in Libya. We have neither at the moment."

Europe itself was hardly a picture of unity when it came to the difficult issue of resettling migrants.

(AP) A protestor holds up a sign during a demonstration outside of an emergency EU summit...
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Countries like Germany, Sweden, France and Italy have dealt with a disproportionate number of asylum requests while many eastern and Baltic member states take hardly any. Five of the 28 member states are handling almost 70 percent of the migrants coming in.

British Prime Minister David Cameron, two weeks away from a national election in which immigration is a major issue, said Britain was not planning to take more in migrants that had no reason to come to the U.K. British vessels would take migrants "to the nearest safe country, mostly likely Italy," he said.

Still, despite the differences, Finland's prime minister Alexander Stubb was hopeful that this time Europe could put up a show of solidarity.

"I hope we'll get it right this time," he said.

---

Follow Raf Casert on Twitter at http://twitter.com/rcasert

---

Associated Press writers John Dahlburg in Brussels, Sylvie Corbet in Paris and Karl Ritter in Rome contributed to this report.

Housecarl · Apr 23, 2015

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Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150423/ml--yemen-65f48637f4.html

Saudi-led airstrikes bomb Yemen's Shiite rebels in 6 cities

Apr 23, 5:16 PM (ET)
By AHMED AL-HAJ

(AP) This photo shows an army tank being transported, in the city of Najran, Saudi...
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SANAA, Yemen (AP) — Attempts to ease fighting in Yemen appeared to falter Thursday, as Shiite rebels pressed an offensive in the south and a Saudi Arabia-led coalition intensified its airstrikes less than two days after it said it was scaling back the campaign.

All sides have declared their willingness to enter talks, but none has taken any steps to end the conflict that has killed more than 1,000 people.

Still, the head of U.N. operations in Yemen said in an interview with The Associated Press that a renewal of such talks is "inevitable," and behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts could bring results in the coming weeks.

The battle in the Arab world's poorest country pits the Iranian-backed rebels known as Houthis and their allies — military units loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh — against the Saudi-led coalition and the forces of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi. Although Hadi is the internationally recognized leader, he was forced to flee his southern stronghold of Aden last month as the Houthis advanced toward the port. He is in the Saudi capital of Riyadh.

(AP) Paolo Lembo, U.N. Resident Coordinator in Yemen, speaks during an interview with The...
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Western governments and the Sunni Arab countries in the coalition say the Houthis get their arms from Shiite powerhouse Iran. Tehran and the rebels deny that, although the Islamic Republic has provided political and humanitarian support to the Shiite group.

Warplanes hammered Aden, hitting hotels and a police club occupied by the Houthis and their allies. Heavy strikes also hit positions in five other cities, many of them gateways to Aden, officials said.

At least six airstrikes targeted an air base, a military camp, and weapon caches in the western port of Houdida. In the western city of Taiz, jets bombed the headquarters of Battalion 35, led by pro-Saleh commanders. In the nearby city of Ibb, the planes targeted educational facilities suspected of storing weapons, officials said.

Rebel reinforcements were bombed in the central province of Marib, while in the city of Dhale, another gateway to the south, airstrikes targeted suspected weapons depots and assembly points for fighters. Residents of Dahle said the city was being shelled by the Houthis and forces loyal to Saleh, Yemen's longtime authoritarian leader who was a staunch U.S. ally.

All the Yemeni officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media, and witnesses asked not to be identified, fearing for their safety.

(AP) Map locates Aden, Yemen, and shows areas of al Houthi control; 2c x 2 inches; 46.5...
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On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia announced an end of the first phase of its coalition's month-old air campaign against the Houthis, who swept out of the north and advanced toward southern Yemen. The Saudis said a new phase called "Renewal of Hope" was beginning, focused on diplomacy, protecting civilians, counterterrorism and halting future military actions by the Houthis.

The rebels and their allies have lost little ground despite the airstrikes, with Houthis controlling the north and the capital of Sanaa, while trying to make inroads in the southern and central provinces. Hadi and the rest of his cabinet are operating from exile in Saudi Arabia. Aden is being besieged by the Houthis and Saleh's forces.

Yemeni activist Walid Saleh said the coalition is trying to push its opponents into a corner, while the rebels will continue to try to take over Aden to force more concessions.

A U.N. Security Council resolution passed April 14 includes demands that the Houthis withdraw from areas they have seized, including Sanaa, and relinquish arms and missiles seized from military and security institutions.

Saudi Arabia maintains that those preconditions must be met before any real reconciliatory talks can begin, according to a top Hadi aide who spoke on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to talk to reporters. Other than implementing the resolution, "all doors are closed," the aide said by phone from Riyadh.

(AP) A Saudi man looks at an army tank being transported, in the city of Najran, Saudi...
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Independent Yemeni political analyst Fathi Nasr said Tuesday's announcement by Saudi Arabia of the curtailing of airstrikes was "a smart move that won appeal from the international community, while at the same time, nothing changed on the ground."

Houthi leaders had appeared to make a conciliatory statement Wednesday by calling for a resumption of dialogue and efforts under U.N. auspices that lead to a peaceful compromise, although the airstrikes must end first. Last weekend, rebel leader Abdul-Malek al-Houthi made a defiant speech in which he vowed there would be no surrender and rejected U.N. efforts.

Paolo Lembo, the U.N. resident coordinator in Yemen, said there have been more than 4,000 airstrikes since the campaign began March 26. He said nearly 1,100 people have been killed, with the actual figure believed to be higher, and that 150,000 have been displaced.

In an interview in Amman, Jordan, Lembo said all sides "are aware that there is no other solution" than a political settlement, but that fighting will likely continue for some time. He added that he believes that "the resumption of peace talks is inevitable" despite the renewed fighting.

"Diplomatic discussions are occurring, invisibly, behind the scenes, and I know there is reason enough to believe that they should bring good results in the future, in the coming weeks," he said.

(AP) Paolo Lembo, U.N. Resident Coordinator in Yemen, speaks during an interview with The...
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Lembo, who was evacuated from Yemen earlier this month, also hopes to see "a conference that will bring most of the parties to the table," but would not elaborate.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon nominated Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed to be the new special envoy to Yemen to guide future peace talks. His predecessor, Jamal Benomar, resigned last week after sharp criticism from Gulf countries. Benomar's four years of trying to broker a peaceful political transition fell apart amid the rebel uprising and the airstrikes.

Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and army chief Gen. Raheel Sharif arrived Thursday in Saudi Arabia to meet with King Salman to push for negotiations to resolve the conflict, according to Pakistan's Foreign Office.

Sharif came to explain why Pakistan was not contributing troops to the coalition, said a Pakistani diplomat in Riyadh who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media. "The other party expressed understanding to the Pakistani position," the diplomat said, referring to Saudi officials.

The Saudis — joined in the coalition by other Gulf countries, Egypt and Sudan — view the rebels as an Iranian proxy bent on expanding Tehran's influence across the region.

(AP) Paolo Lembo, U.N. Resident Coordinator in Yemen, speaks during an interview with The...
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In a thinly veiled reference to Iran, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi said Thursday that Egypt will not permit any country to threaten the national security of any other Arab country.

"With help of our brotherly Arabs, we will not allow any force to expand its power (influence) or plots on the Arab world," he said.

In Washington, a U.S. defense official said a convoy of Iranian cargo ships that had been headed toward Yemen, possibly with advanced weaponry for the rebels, has reversed its direction, at least temporarily. It remains unclear where the nine-ship convoy may be headed, but as of Thursday it was no longer moving in the direction of Aden, said the official, who was not authorized to discuss ship movements publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

Defense Secretary Ash Carter said Wednesday the Iranian ships might be carrying weapons to the Houthis, but he would not say whether the U.S. would forcibly stop and board one of the Iranian ships if it entered Yemeni waters.

During a visit to the Gulf nation of Bahrain, Yemeni Foreign Minister Riad Yassin repeated accusations that Iran was arming the Houthis. "These militias are attacking all Yemenis as part of an Iranian plan in the region," he said.

---

Associated Press writers Karin Laub in Amman, Jordan; Maggie Michael in Cairo; Asif Shahzad in Islamabad; Reem Khalifa in Manama, Bahrain; Cara Anna at the United Nations; and national Security Writer Robert Burns in Washington contributed to this report.

Housecarl · Apr 24, 2015

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Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150422/af--kenya-president-plot-8215689ee3.html

Kenyan police say suspect caught surveilling president home

Apr 22, 11:47 AM (ET)
By TOM ODULA

NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — A Kenyan court on Wednesday granted police 15 days to hold and interrogate a man who is suspected of carrying out surveillance on President Uhuru Kenyatta's rural home in preparation for an attack.

Prosecutor Daniel Karuri told a court Wednesday that police require more time to interrogate Said Mire Siyad, who was found in the presidents home in Gatundu South in central Kenya.

Karuri said time is needed to extract mobile phone data from the suspect's phone.

"The respondent is believed to have been sent to the presidential resident to carry out surveillance for a terrorist attack," the prosecutor said.

Preliminary investigations show the suspect has other associates who are yet to be arrested, Karuri said.

Kenya security forces have increased the frequency of arrests of people suspected of involvement in extremism since four gunmen from the Somali extremist group al-Shabab killed 148 people earlier this month at a college in Garissa, Kenya.

Siyad was among eight other suspects arrested for alleged links to extremism who police presented in court Wednesday to ask for more time to investigate them.

Human rights activists have accused police of making mass arrests without evidence each time an extremist attack occurs. Most of the suspects arrested in the mass sweeps are usually released by courts due to lack evidence.

Al-Shabab militants from Somalia have vowed to carry out attack in Kenya for deploying its troops to Somalia to fight the militant Islamic group.

Housecarl · Apr 24, 2015

Hummm......

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Posted for fair use.....
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150424/lt--mexico-foreign_agents-arms-7d2c545c3f.html

Law will let some foreign agents carry weapons in Mexico

Apr 23, 11:14 PM (ET)

MEXICO CITY (AP) — Mexico's congress approved on Thursday a reform that lets some foreign agents carry arms inside the country, a significant change in a nation that has historically said the practice would violate its sovereignty.

Under the law, foreign customs and migration agents will be allowed to carry guns in previously established zones. Also, foreign leaders or heads of state will be able to enter Mexico with armed security details.

Officials say the presence of foreign agents in Mexico will speed up the joint inspection process and facilitate the flow of goods and people across borders. They also say foreign customs and migration agents at times need guns to guarantee their security given the problems of drug and human trafficking.

The bill, which was proposed by President Enrique Pena Nieto, was passed earlier by Mexico's Senate. On Thursday, the Chamber of Deputies approved it 288 votes to 82, with nine abstentions. It will now be sent to the executive branch to be published and go into effect.

Previously, Mexican law prohibited any foreign agent or official from carrying weapons inside the country or participating in operations to arrest criminals. Authorities have always denied media reports of U.S. agents directly taking part in anti-drug trafficking operations inside Mexico.

Permits will be limited to revolvers or semi-automatic pistols with a caliber less than .40 and be granted by Mexico's national defense department. The initiative demands reciprocity, implying that the foreign government would also allow Mexican agents to carry guns in its territory.

Housecarl · Apr 24, 2015

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Posted for fair use.....
https://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/M...unts-accomplices-in-foiled-church-attack.ashx

Apr. 24, 2015 | 12:03 AM

France hunts accomplices in foiled church attack

Agence France Presse

PARIS: French police were hunting Thursday for possible accomplices to an Algerian student whose plan to attack churches was foiled when his arsenal of weapons was uncovered purely by chance.

Prime Minister Manuel Valls said the planned attack on one or more churches in the town of Villejuif just south of Paris was the fifth to be thwarted since 2013.

It was exposed less than four months after a jihadi killing spree in and around Paris that left 17 dead.

“The threat has never been as high. We have never had to face this kind of terrorism in our history,” Valls told France Inter radio.

Sid Ahmed Ghlam, 24, was arrested Wednesday after police stumbled upon his plans when he called paramedics saying he had accidentally shot himself in the leg.

An arsenal of four Kalashnikov rifles, several handguns and bulletproof vests were discovered in his car and at his student flat as well as jihadi literature mentioning Al-Qaeda and ISIS. Detailed plans to carry out an attack were also found.

Police said his DNA was also linked to the murder of a young mother in Villejuif who was found shot dead in the passenger seat of her car Sunday.

They are now trying to untangle the complex web of events: Who else may have been behind the attack, how did Ghlam shoot himself in the leg and why did he kill young mother Aurelie Chatelain?

Ghlam, a fresh-faced IT student with no criminal record, had previously drawn the attention of French intelligence agents over his postings on social networks expressing his desire to join jihadis fighting in Syria. However, a probe by intelligence services found nothing to go on, according to Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve.

The revelations about a planned attack that again escaped the radar of French intelligence services have highlighted the danger for France which is often singled out by jihadis as a prime target.

The arrest comes some three months after Islamist extremists gunned down 12 people at the Charlie Hebdo magazine, a policewoman and four others at a Jewish supermarket in a three-day reign of terror in the French capital.

The attack sent shockwaves around the world, and prompted several reforms in France including current parliamentary debate on controversial new spy laws.

Valls defended the overhaul of intelligence legislation saying it was long overdue and it “was not about tapping the phones of the whole population” and was about giving intelligence services “the means to be as effective as possible.”

Paris prosecutor Francois Molins said that Ghlam had told police “far-fetched” tales of how he had received the bullet wound to his leg, such as that he had shot himself while trying to throw his weapons into the Seine river.

Investigators are now focusing on whether Ghlam was acting alone. Analysis of his communications equipment indicated Ghlam “was in touch with another person who could be in Syria on how to carry out an attack, with the latter clearly asking him to target a church,” Molins said.

“This type of individual does not act alone,” Valls said.

Police are also trying to figure out the mysterious link to 32-year-old Chatelain, who was found shot in the passenger seat of her vehicle, with her laptop still plugged in.

The young mother from the north of France was in the area for a pilates training course. Traces of her blood were found on one of Ghlam’s jackets, police said.

Several of Ghlam’s friends and family have since been detained. However, his sister told AFP that her brother was not an extremist. “My brother did not change. He was not radicalized. I am shocked by all that, we do not believe it.”

Hundreds of French nationals have joined jihadi ranks in Iraq and Syria, accounting for almost half the European fighters there, according to a report released by the Senate.

Valls said 1,573 French citizens or residents had been implicated in “terror networks,” 442 of whom were believed to be in Syria and 97 of whom had died there. The fear is that many of these radicalized citizens will return to carry out attacks in France.

After the January attacks, security at sensitive sites like religious buildings and media houses have been “permanently adapted to deal with the threat,” Cazeneuve said.

Housecarl · Apr 24, 2015

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Posted for fair use.....
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2015/04/24/99/0200000000AEN20150424002300315F.html

S. Korea to create task force on nuke deal with U.S.

2015/04/24 10:19
By Lee Chi-dong

SEOUL, April 24 (Yonhap) -- The Foreign Ministry said Friday it will soon launch a task force to implement a new nuclear deal with the United States.

The allies reached an agreement on their peaceful nuclear energy cooperation earlier this week. It would allow Seoul to expand its non-military nuclear activities, including uranium enrichment and research into reprocessing.

The envisioned bureau, tentatively named the Nuclear and Nonproliferation Bureau, will be composed of three divisions with 20 members, a ministry official said. He requested anonymity, saying that consultations with the Ministry of Personnel Management and other related authorities are required.

"If established, the permanent bureau will absorb the Disarmament and Nonproliferation Division currently under the International Organizations Bureau, and the task force that negotiated the nuclear energy pact with the U.S.," the official said. "I think the bureau will have about 20 members."

The ministry is also proceeding with domestic procedures to put the accord in force.

It is translating the English-language text of the agreement into Korean.

"The translation work is almost done. We will be able to send the Korean version to the United States next week," the official said.

Once Washington completes its review of the Korean version, the Seoul ministry will consult with the Ministry of Government Legislation on whether the nuclear deal needs the National Assembly's approval, he added.

The U.S. Congress will review the so-called 123 agreement for 90 days of continuous session. In case of no objection, the deal goes into effect.

lcd@yna.co.kr

(END)

energy_wave · Apr 24, 2015

Russia Backs Down and Says Iran Won’t Get S300 System in ‘Near Future’

Kremlin says the lifting of the ban on selling the anti-missile systems to Iran was only a "political and legal decision."
By: Tzvi Ben-Gedalyahu
Published: April 23rd, 2015

Russian S-300 anti-missile system.

Russia has backed down on delivering the advanced S-300 advanced anti-missile system to Iran in the “near future,” Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told Russian media on Thursday

Moscow announced two weeks ago that it was lifting the bean of selling Iran the S-300, causing “concern” in Washington and fierce anger in Jerusalem.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu told Russian president Vladimir Putin last week that Israel would bomb the S-300 systems if Iran were to ship them to Syria or the Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Tass News agency quoted Ryabkov on Thursday as saying:

I do not think that it is a matter of near future. It is far more important that a political and legal decision has been taken to open up such an opportunity

Before the ban, Iran had paid nearly $170 million in advance for five of the anti-missile systems that would make it more difficult for Israel or any other country to attack Iran.

Russia’s retreat will somewhat calm down a storm in Congress, where support is growing to cripple the emerging deal with Iran after President Barack Obama and the other P5+1 countries agreed to a temporary framework arrangement.

About the Author: Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu is a graduate in journalism and economics from The George Washington University. He has worked as a cub reporter in rural Virginia and as senior copy editor for major Canadian metropolitan dailies. Tzvi wrote for Arutz Sheva for several years before joining the Jewish Press.

http://www.jewishpress.com/news/bre...nt-get-s300-system-in-near-future/2015/04/23/

Housecarl · Apr 24, 2015

Looks like they were about to start their Italian campaign.......

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Posted for fair use.....
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/i...ist-terrorist-network-planning-attack-n347466

Italian Terror Raid Busts Cell With Alleged Bin Laden Link

First published April 23rd 2015, 11:00 pm

ROME — Italian police mounted a vast counterterrorism operation Friday against an al Qaeda-inspired terror network with ties to Osama Bin Laden, the lead investigator told NBC News.

Mario Carta said counterterrorism officers had dismantled a "very well-structured terrorist network" mainly composed of Pakistani nationals that had been operating out of Italy's Mediterranean island of Sardinia since 2005.

"This was one of the most important operations we ever conducted," he told NBC News. "We are talking people with connections with al Qaeda at the highest level."

Carta said the operation led to the arrests of 18 people across seven provinces — mostly Pakistanis businessmen who appeared to be conducting normal affairs while in reality financing al Qaeda in Pakistan.

"In a wiretapped conversation, one of them...boasted that Bin Laden sent him personally to Italy," he said. "We believe they were in touch with people who knew the whereabouts of bin Laden, to the point that they would frequently ask over the phone about his health while he was in hiding."

Officials also suspect the network planned but never carried out an attack against Pope Benedict XVI, at the Vatican in 2010, Carter said, adding that the network had links with al Qaeda members "at the highest level."

Officials also believe the group also wanted to support attacks against Pakistan's government and U.S. forces in Afghanistan, according to Reuters.

Some of those under investigation were believed to be involved in attacks in Pakistan, including one that killed more than 100 people in a market in the northwestern frontier city of Peshawar in 2009, the police said according to Reuters.

Police said a news conference would be held later on Friday in the Sardinian city of Cagliari.

- Claudio Lavanga and Alexander Smith

Housecarl · Apr 24, 2015

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...est-18-on-terror-charges-citing-al-qaeda-link

Italian Police Arrest 18 on Terror Charges, Citing al-Qaeda Link

by Alessandra Migliaccio
2:10 AM PDT
April 24, 2015

Italian police said they arrested 18 suspected Islamic extremists, including two who once had links to Osama Bin Laden, in a “vast” conterterrorism raid across the country.

Those arrested had al-Qaeda ties and planned “insurrection against the current government of Pakistan,” police said Friday in e-mailed statements detailing the operation.

“It was an active, operational cell” involved in “numerous bloody acts of terrorism” Pasquale Errico, police chief for the city of Sassari in Sardinia, near where some of the arrests took place, said in an interview on SkyTg24. The cell “also financed terrorist movements in Pakistan and Afghanistan,” according to police.

Some of the those arrested are responsible for past terror attacks in Pakistan including the 2009 Mina Bazar attack in Peshawar that killed more than 100 people, according to the police statements. The group’s aim was to push Pakistan to give up the fight against the Taliban and weaken support for the U.S. in Afghanistan, police said.

Members are also under investigation for financing terrorist movements in Pakistan and Afghanistan by collecting funds in Italy. Most of the money was transferred through an ancient banking practice known as “hawala,” which involves movements of money through a trust-based network of brokers, police said.

Housecarl · Apr 24, 2015

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150424/eu--kazakhstan-presidential_election-c1d40c7614.html

Kazakhstan votes for continuity while keeping eye on Ukraine

Apr 24, 5:16 AM (ET)
By PAVEL MIKHEYEV and PETER LEONARD

ALMATY, Kazakhstan (AP) — As oil-rich Kazakhstan votes for a president Sunday, the governing elite is pounding home a mantra of stability as fears percolate about the country's massive Russian minority taking inspiration from the Moscow-backed insurgency in Ukraine.

With authorities clamping down on all opposition, Nursultan Nazarbayev's re-election is a done deal. The former Communist party boss' two rivals — a trade union leader and a Communist politician— have negligible public profiles and are standing only to create the illusion of competition.

Instead of electioneering in the traditional sense, the 74-year-old Nazarbayev's team is rehearsing well-worn refrains on social and ethnic harmony.

Kazakhstan's vast diversity of peoples — from Uzbeks to Koreans and Chechens to Tatars — is a source of both pride and anxiety.

Russians are by far the largest minority, accounting for almost one-fourth of the 16 million people spread across a land four times the size of Texas.

Recently, niggling anxieties about the potential for such a large ethnic group to pursue a separatist agenda have been rekindled by unrest in Ukraine, where ethnic Russians have been goaded by Moscow into mounting an armed insurrection.

Those concerns were only deepened in August, when Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a back-handed compliment to Nazarbayev, who took charge in Kazakhstan in the late 1980s.

"He has done a unique thing. He created a state where no state ever existed. The Kazakhs never had a state," Putin told a gathering of pro-Kremlin youth activists.

Ukrainians have become accustomed to hearing Russian chauvinists declaring their country a recent invention. So Kazakhs felt a chill when they heard Putin make similar remarks about their own country.

Nazarbayev acted swiftly in the post-independence years of the early 1990s to sideline the grassroots Slavic groups, who militated for language rights and autonomy for Russians living in northern regions.

Moscow currently enjoys warm diplomatic and economic ties with Kazakhstan, as did Ukraine before the president there was toppled in a pro-Western uprising. A sudden change in Kazakhstan's trajectory could, some fear, re-ignite calls for autonomy. That's one reason why Nazarbayev is at pains to stress national harmony and close ties with the Kremlin.

Nazarbayev has also been disciplined in keeping Kazakh nationalists on a short leash.

Tight control over the media has ensured that news of occasional clashes, such as those that occurred earlier this year between Kazakhs and ethnic Tajik communities in the southern village of Bostandyk, do not travel far.

The higher official status of the Kazakh language is promoted as gingerly as possible, to avoid causing offense. The language question is treated so cautiously, in fact, that it is rare for Russians to bother learning Kazakh at all, although authorities are trying to change that by pushing its use among the very young.

Also, all prospective candidates for the presidential election were made to take a Kazakh language test. Many failed.

The weekend presidential election was preceded Thursday by a congress of the Assembly Peoples of Kazakhstan, a talking shop devoted to cultivating national unity. Before the event, Nazarbayev met with the deputy head of the assembly to discuss "Kazakhstan's model for interethnic harmony," the president's office said.

It is widely accepted that as long as Nazarbayev is around, inter-ethnic tensions will likely be kept at bay.

Speaking at Thursday's congress, he declared that the authorities would "robustly prevent any form of ethnic radicalism, regardless from where it arises."

But the fear is that Nazarbayev's successors could seek to cheaply bolster their mandate by striking a populist nationalist chord.

Nazarbayev has given no clues about heirs, however, leaving political observers to speculate idly about the future.

---

Leonard reported from Kiev, Ukraine.

Housecarl · Apr 24, 2015

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150424/ml-islamic-state-114d93b4d5.html

Iraq forces recapture a bridge in Ramadi from Islamic State

Apr 24, 9:20 AM (ET)

BAGHDAD (AP) — An Iraqi official says security forces have recaptured a key bridge from Islamic State group militants in Ramadi, the capital of western Anbar.

Anbar police Col. Mahadi Abbas says the forces recaptured the al-Houz bridge on the Euphrates river on Friday, after fierce clashes with IS militants in the western section of Ramadi.

Abbas says the al-Houz bridge was controlled by the IS group for several months and served as the main route supply route for the insurgents.

The security situation in Ramadi sharply deteriorated after the IS group seized three villages around the city, forcing thousands of civilians to flee their homes.

In recent days Iraqi soldiers and police have been able to secure the center of Ramadi and push the militants back from some areas of the city.

Housecarl · Apr 24, 2015

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150424/af--south_sudan-politics-29a46c85e6.html

South Sudan opposition leader says troops surround his home

Apr 24, 10:38 AM (ET)
By CHARLTON DOKI

JUBA, South Sudan (AP) — An opposition leader in South Sudan said on Friday that government troops had surrounded his house in the capital, raising fears of insecurity in the city where a fight among the armed forces sparked a nationwide rebellion in 2013.

Lam Akol told The Associated Press that security operatives closed the two roads leading to his house in Juba, although they had not forced their way into his property.

"I don't feel threatened but definitely this is not pleasant. It is a scary situation if security people surround your house," he said by phone from inside his house. "I spoke to the minister concerned and he said he will ask his directors but up to now I have not heard back from any of them."

The allegations were denied by Information Minister Michael Makuei Lueth, who said Akol was free to leave his house if he wanted.

"He is a free citizen and if he claims to be under house arrest that is a different thing. Why should he be put under house arrest? If we want to arrest him we would just take him to the prison," Lueth said.

South Sudan remains volatile as government troops try to put down a rebellion led by former Vice President Riek Machar but the capital, Juba, where the fighting started in December 2013, has been generally peaceful.

Akol heads the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-Democratic Change party and is a frequent critic of the government and one of President Salva Kiir's major political rivals.

Akol has recently criticized both Kiir and Machar for lacking the political will to make the necessary compromises needed to reach a final peace agreement.

Tens of thousands of people have been killed in South Sudan's current conflict, according to the U.N. Multiple peace pacts have been broken by both sides in the conflict.

Fighting appears to be resuming in the oil-rich Upper Nile state, where government forces are reportedly fighting for control of the capital, Malakal, after it was taken by forces loyal to a local general.

Housecarl · Apr 24, 2015

China warns NK may already have an arsenal of 20 NUKE warheads; could double by next year
Started by Heliobas Discipleý, 04-22-2015 09:23 PM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...of-20-NUKE-warheads-could-double-by-next-year

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https://www.commentarymagazine.com/...as-nuclear-arsenal-is-bigger-than-we-thought/

North Korea’s Nuclear Arsenal Is Bigger Than We Thought

Michael Auslin
04.23.2015 - 2:25 PM

A few weeks ago, I wrote about North Korea’s nuclear breakout, and that the U.S. government was finally beginning to acknowledge the degree to which North Korea’s nuclear capabilities could no longer be ignored. Yet even as the Obama administration continues to talk about the North Korean nuclear “program,” along come the Chinese, of all people, to tell us that North Korea is in reality a nuclear power, with a growing arsenal beyond what American experts suspected.

Today, the Wall Street Journal reports on what many of us in Washington have been hearing for a while, namely that North Korea may possess as many as 20 nuclear weapons already, and that it could build 20 more by 2016, possibly having 75 nuclear bombs by 2020. The source of this latest intelligence (which, it must be acknowledged, is guesswork)? Chinese nuclear experts, who meet regularly with their American counterparts.

The American experts quoted in the piece take a lower-end estimate of Pyongyang’s nuclear inventory, but still believe that Kim Jong-un currently controls around a dozen bombs, with as many as 20 by next year. Combine either the Chinese or the American total with the North’s ability to launch a long-range ballistic missile that can travel up to 5,600 miles, covering most of America’s West coast, and the picture of strategic stability in Asia begins to look a little different.

By now, it must be clear to all but the most naive of observers that North Korea will never denuclearize. Any idea of returning to the moribund Six Party Talks to achieve that goal is a dangerous notion, as more negotiation over an unachievable outcome will only give Pyongyang more time to further build up its inventory and perfect its ICBM capability. Instead, it is time to put some intellectual firepower behind meaningful sanctions that harm the pocketbooks of North Korea’s leaders, and enhance anti-proliferation activities, to prevent the transfer of sensitive technology.

Unfortunately, the Obama administration may be guilty of hiding information of precisely such proliferation activities, so as to keep nuclear negotiations with Iran alive. Given the failed Bush-Obama attempts to keep North Korea from developing nuclear weapons during years of intense negotiations, the folly of pursuing a similar script with Iran becomes ever clearer. Now, North Korea is stockpiling an arsenal of nuclear weapons controlled by a paranoid, erratic, aggressive regime. Counting on Kim Jong-un’s rationality is a risky bet, but America’s diplomatic failures up to now give few other options for dealing with his threat. Thinking about the unthinkable may become fashionable again.

___

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http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/chinese-experts-sound-alarms-on-north-koreas-nuclear-program/

Chinese Experts Sound Alarms on North Korea’s Nuclear Program

Chinese nuclear experts think that the nuclear threat posed by North Korea is much greater than previously thought.

By Ankit Panda
April 23, 2015

A report in the Wall Street Journal released on Wednesday notes that “China’s top nuclear experts” have upped their threat assessments of North Korea’s nuclear weapons production. Per the report, which is based off comments made by those experts at a “closed-door meeting with U.S. nuclear specialists,” these Chinese experts perceived North Korea to pose a greater nuclear threat than even most contemporary U.S. assessments. The report comes not long after the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies released a new report suggesting that North Korea could, in an extreme scenario, possess up to 100 nuclear warheads by 2020 (if you missed it, Shannon Tiezzi and I spoke to Joel Wit, one of the authors of that report, on The Diplomat’s podcast).

The Journal’s report suggest that the latest Chinese estimates place North Korea’s active nuclear arsenal as of April 2015 at 20 warheads. This number is unconfirmed as no one outside of North Korea—not even China, Pyongyang’s erstwhile closest partner—knows the specifics of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal. Interestingly, the report notes that the Chinese experts believe that North Korea is capable of producing sufficient amounts of weapons-grade uranium to “double its arsenal by next year.” That claim doesn’t quite line up with most studies of North Korea’s uranium program in the West. North Korea’s nuclear tests have all so far been plutonium-based devices, and while the country has long been known to have an interest in enriching uranium for use in a weapons program, there is considerable disagreement regarding the extent to which this program is operational or even viable. David Albright offers the most recent independent U.S. take on the Pyongyang’s progress on weapons-grade uranium (see pages 6-10 onward in this document).

Siegfried Hecker, a former head of the Los Alamos National Laboratory and the lead U.S. technical expert at the meeting with Chinese experts, told the Wall Street Journal that the Chinese “believe on the basis of what they’ve put together now that the North Koreans have enough enriched uranium capacity to be able to make eight to 10 bombs’ worth of highly enriched uranium per year.” Though it is likely based on unverified information and educated estimation, that’s quite a spectacular claim regarding North Korea’s abilities.

The sounding of the alarm by representatives of the Chinese government and Chinese experts on North Korea’s nuclear program is not a new phenomenon, but the new alarmism about Pyongyang’s growing arsenal and uranium program suggests that China is keen for the United States, and other countries, to take the North Korean nuclear issue back to the negotiating table. In the years since the Six-Party Talks on North Korea’s nuclear program fell apart, China has been actively campaigning for a return to negotiations while the United States has refused to do so until the North Korean government demonstrates in good faith that it is willing to negotiate by taking action to increase its transparency or cooperate with international investigators, from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for example.

Based on statements by senior U.S. diplomatic officials, the United States will likely be unconvinced by heightened threat perceptions of North Korea’s capabilities. In recent months, senior U.S. military officials, including Admiral William Gortney of U.S. Northern Command, have suggested that North Korea’s nuclear program is likely sophisticated enough to the point where it is worth taking Pyongyang’s intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capability seriously. Gortney, in March, suggested that North Korea could mount a nuclear device for delivery via its 5,600 mile-range KN-08 ICBM. Meanwhile, Admiral Cecil D. Haney of U.S. Strategic Command suggested that North Korea was making progress toward operationalizing a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) capability as well.

With threat assessments rising in both the United States and China, it is at least certain that North Korea will remain an area of discussion of the two countries in their bilateral dialogues, even if they continue to disagree about the utility of multilateral talks. Chinese President Xi Jinxing is scheduled to visit Washington later this year. He will likely bring up Kim Jong-un’s nuclear ambitions in his talks with U.S. President Barack Obama. It’ll be worth keeping an eye on official Chinese statements on North Korea to determine if there is common ground between the official Chinese government position on North Korea and the opinions of Chinese nuclear experts. Generally, China, while concerned about North Korea’s nuclear program, hasn’t taken Pyongyang’s abilities too seriously. That could be changing soon.

Housecarl · Apr 24, 2015

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http://www.janes.com/article/50761/us-upgrades-assessment-of-china-s-type-094-ssbn-fleet

US upgrades assessment of China's Type 094 SSBN fleet

Richard D Fisher Jr, Washington, DC and James Hardy, London - IHS Jane's Navy International
19 April 2015

Key Points
•The commander of US PACOM has said China has three Type 094 (Jin-class) nuclear ballistic missile armed submarines in service and may have eight in service by 2020.
•The comments are an increase on previous US estimates of an end total of five Type 094s

The US military has increased its estimate of how many nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) China is planning to operate.

In a 15 April testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, Admiral Samuel Locklear, Commander of US Pacific Command (PACOM), said China has three Type 094 (Jin-class) submarines in service already and may have eight in service by the end of the decade.

"The Jin-class submarine carries the JL-2 submarine launched ballistic missile [SLBM] with a range capable of reaching the US and will give China its first credible sea-based nuclear deterrent. Nuclear deterrence patrols will likely commence this year," he said.

Adm Locklear's comments mark an increase over previous US intelligence community estimates. In 2007 the US Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) estimated that up to five Type 094 SSBNs could be built, while the 2008 annual Pentagon report to US Congress on China's military stated that up to five Type 094s could be built by 2010.

Meanwhile, an ONI report issued on 9 April stated that China has four Type 094s in service.

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Housecarl · Apr 24, 2015

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http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/us-india-collaboration-on-aircraft-carriers-a-good-idea/

US-India Collaboration on Aircraft Carriers: A Good Idea?

Ashley Tellis claims the United States should help India develop its next-generation carriers. He’s right.

By Ankit Panda
April 24, 2015

Yesterday, my colleague Franz-Stefan Gady covered the main takeaways from a new Carnegie Endowment for International Peace report, authored by Ashley Tellis, that calls for, among other things, broader cooperation between the United States and India on developing the latter’s naval capabilities. Specifically, Tellis focuses on carrier aviation and recommends that the United States ensure that India fields a more robust carrier capability than China. India has a Vikrant-class carrier in the works: the 65,000 ton nuclear-powered INS Vishal will launch in the next decade. Tellis’ report has drawn attention for good reason, and I’d like to herein address two points that stood out to me.

First, Tellis astutely notes that while the United States and India are strategically converging—certainly in the first 11 months of Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party’s time in power—what both sides really need is a bilateral strategic event on the scale of the 2005 123 agreement on civil nuclear cooperation. That agreement stands as a watershed moment in bilateral relations between the world’s oldest democracy and its largest. It came a few years after that United States had alienated and sanctioned India for its nuclear tests in the late-1990s. The civil nuclear agreement was a feather in the Bush administration’s cap on foreign policy and showed the India and the United States could work together for mutual benefit.

Today, though both countries cooperate and agree on a variety of security and defense issues (see examples here and here), there is no real looming possibility for a cooperative endeavor on the scale of the civil nuclear cooperation deal. Tellis claims—and I’d agree—that U.S. technical assistance for India’s indigenous aircraft carrier, while not comparable in scale to the nuclear agreement, are a great way to encourage a convergence between the core national security interests of both countries. Tellis situates the strategic logic of this endeavor in terms of the broader conversations that are taking place in both Washington and New Delhi about China’s naval modernization and forays into the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

Second, while the report’s two core recommendations for the United States on offensive carrier technology are straightforward, they are not both equally convincing. The recommendations, on improving the ability of India’s next-generation carriers to “fight,” are to allow India access to General Atomics’ electromagnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS, the advantages of which I discussed in some detail earlier this month), and offer India access to “various advanced aviation systems” (read: E-2C/D Hawkeye and F-35C Lightning joint strike fighters). The first proposal—EMALS—is both realistic and feasible while the second is less so. EMALS would ensure that India’s Vikrant-class carriers would have superiorly capable air wings to anything China currently fields on its sole carrier, the sidegraded Russian Admiral Kuznetsov-class carrier, the Liaoning.

In short, an EMALS-equipped INS Vishal (and ostensibly INS Vikrant) would entail a switch to the more complex but versatile catapult-assisted (CATOBAR) launch systems. Currently, India, Russia, and China operate carriers using the less advanced short take-off (STOBAR) launch system. With an EMALS-equipped CATOBAR launch system (pardon the alphabet soup), India’s naval strike fighters would encounter less strain on their airframes and be able to conduct sorties faster. This means that even while China’s current J-15 fighters may be better equipped than India’s currently employed MiG-29K Fulcrum fighters, India would have a leg up when it came to deploying its carrier air wings.

Of course, the MiG-29K Fulcrum won’t be India’s go-to strike fighter (one hopes) when the Vishal heads out to sea. The question of what fighter would adorn the Vishal‘s flattop remains open. Tellis proposes Lockheed Martin’s F-35C Lightning. While it’s an interesting thought, it’s hard to imagine India opting for the F-35C (it would seem Flashpoint‘s Robert Farley agrees with me on this point, based on his post from earlier today discussing the future of India’s carrier aviation). Part of the reason is that India is too far along with Russia on their plans to jointly develop a multi-role fifth generation fighter aircraft based off the Sukhoi T-50 PAK FA. (New Delhi is also testing naval prototypes of its Tejas light combat aircraft, but the focus remains on STOBAR launch systems.)

While joint production and development plans have hit a few roadblocks, New Delhi is almost certainly not interested in looking away at this point. To be sure, that could change in the future and the F-35C may become a compelling option. For example, disagreements over the extent of India’s involvement in the FGFA could drive New Delhi away. Additionally, Tellis notes that the T-50 has no naval variant; the FGFA variant might not either, initially. India’s recent decision to acquire 36 Dassault Rafale fighters from France could be the big wrench in the works here for any Indian plans to explore an F-35C acquisition. While the Rafale is less capable than the F-35C as a stealth fighter, it would fight the bill for India’s next-generation carrier air wings.

As an ancillary note, the F-35 could have had a very different fate with India had things gone differently in the early stages of bidding for India’s now-dead medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) tender. In 2008, Lockheed Martin pitched a F-16 variant (F-16IN) for consideration under the MMRCA, with the added bonus that India would be eligible for the F-35 Lightning in the future (Tellis himself explored the reasons the U.S. pitch failed in 2011). The F-16 wasn’t appealing for a variety of reasons: Pakistan operated the fighter and its capabilities were insufficiently differentiated from the Mirage 2000s the Indian Air Force already possessed. Additionally, Indian carrier development was less of a priority at the time the MMRCA was conceived. Today, Indian priorities have changed with the times and New Delhi sees a greater role for naval aviation in its bid to exert strategic primacy over the IOR.

Leaving the nuts and bolts of cooperation on India’s carriers aside, one hopes that Tellis’ recommendations will be heard loudly and clearly in both New Delhi and Washington. As the India and the United States continue to build their relationship on a solid foundation of shared interests, both strategic and economic, they will find it easier to pursue their common goal of preserving the status quo in the Indian Ocean through sustained cooperation on defense and security matters. Washington should do its part in buttressing New Delhi’s ability to exercise naval supremacy in the IOR. Making sure India has the right tools for the job (i.e., cutting edge aircraft carriers) is a straightforward and visible way to do so.

_____

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http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/what-does-indias-carrier-aviation-future-hold/

What Does India's Carrier Aviation Future Hold?

Despite the disappointment stemming from India’s Rafale deal, the country’s future in carrier aviation remains bright.

By Robert Farley
April 23, 2015

In the fallout of the Rafale deal, can the Indian naval air arm be saved? More to the point, could French-built Rafale fighters still, eventually, fly from Indian aircraft carriers?

As the Diplomat has detailed, one of the fruits of India’s relationship with the United States should be the EMALS catapult system. Catapult launched (CATOBAR) aircraft differ from their conventional and Short Take Off (STOBAR) cousins in several ways, primarily with respect to their ability to endure the stress involved in the catapult system. Although INS Vikramaditya currently operates MiG-29Ks from her STOBAR deck, no one has yet made clear which fighter will fly from India’s catapult-capable carriers.

At the moment, only five fighters operate off CATOBAR carriers; the F/A-18 Hornet (and its Super Hornet cousin), the A-4 Skyhawk (theoretically off the nearly immobile Brazilian carrier Sao Paulo), the Rafale and Super Etendard, which fly off the Charles de Gaulle, and the F-35C Lightning II. Various schemes have been proposed over the years to develop CATOBAR variants of the MiG-29, Su-33, Eurofighter Typhoon, and Saab Gripen, but none of these have yet come to fruition.

Of these, the F/A-18 will be very old by the time INS Vishal (presumably the first CATOBAR Indian carrier) will enter service, and the Etendard ceased production in 1983. CATOBAR conversions of the Typhoon or Gripen would be extremely risky, and converting the Soviet fighters would combine that risk with considerable age.

This leaves the Rafale, the F-35C, and some as yet unannounced project by some as yet unannounced country. Although the Rafale normally operates in CATOBAR configuration, it is designed to have the capacity to launch as a STOBAR (short take off) aircraft, meaning that it could help resolve one of the central problems with India’s carrier acquisition strategy. To recap, India is purchasing or building three different carriers of wildly different sizes and capabilities, limiting the extent to which it can take advantage of a common pool of expertise and spare parts.

The Rafale can’t resolve this problem entirely, because fighters optimized for serving on STOBAR carriers could not easily operate on the CATOBAR carrier, and vice versa. However, the use of a common airframe would surely create some commonalities in maintenance and training. The F-35C, on the other hand, is strongly disliked by the service that is supposed to be purchasing it in great numbers. And for anyone who has viewed India’s effort to purchase the Rafale with some combination of bemusement and frustration, imagine for a moment the process of getting India involved in the F-35 project.

The Rafale isn’t perfect; it’s expensive, the frame has limitations, and it will never achieve the stealth capabilities of the F-35C. But the French have demonstrated that it can fly, and the Indians have demonstrated (finally) that they can buy it from the French. While the size of the current sale may disappoint many in France, and the lack of technology transfer may disappoint many in India, the foundation for future cooperation remains strong.

Housecarl · Apr 24, 2015

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http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/japan-wins-new-philippine-defense-deal/

Japan Wins New Philippine Defense Deal

Tokyo will construct ten vessels for Manila in the coming years.

By Prashanth Parameswaran
April 24, 2015

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Japan has won a deal to construct ten vessels for the Philippine Coast Guard in the coming years, news outlets reported earlier this week.

According to an announcement from the Philippine Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC) on April 20, the Maritime Safety Capability Improvement Project to supply ten multirole response vessels (MRRVs) was awarded to the Japan Marine United Corp (JMU).

The winning bid, which amounted to PHP8.8 billion (around $200 million), will reportedly comprise of PHP7.4 billion from Japanese Official Development Assistance (ODA) tied to the Japan International Cooperation Agency, and PHP1.4 billion from the Philippine government. It includes the supply of standard spare parts and tools, crew training, ocean transportation, and marine insurance. Delivered are expected to start in 2016 and continue up to 2018.

DOTC Secretary Joseph Emilio Abaya said that the project was part of the Philippine government’s program to equip its forces with “necessary assets to protect the national marine interest.” According to Abaya, the ten new vessels will help the Coast Guard in its functions of maritime law enforcement, search-and-rescue operations, and upholding maritime security. DOTC said the MRRVs would be 40 meters long, have a standard cruising speed of 16 knots and a range of 1,500 miles, and be deployed to various Coast Guard districts across the country, including Manila, La Union, and Puerto Princesa.

The deal comes as part of a broader effort by Japan and the Philippines to boost their defense relationship. While I always make it a point to emphasize that Tokyo and Manila have a long relationship that extends beyond contemporary concerns about China, the security side of the relationship has grown significantly amid growing anxiety about Beijing’s actions in the East China Sea and South China Sea, and also as part of Japan’s increased engagement with Southeast Asia more broadly under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Japan and the Philippines have been building on a strategic partnership inked in 2011 in recent months, including signing a memorandum of understanding in January when Philippine Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin paid a three-day visit to Tokyo. As I noted then, some of the measures proposed included cooperation in defense equipment and technology, and there were reports that Manila had handed over a ‘military wish list’ of sorts to Tokyo to assist with its ongoing defense modernization. These vessels will no doubt be a boost for the Philippine Coast Guard in that respect, as well as a concrete sign of an elevation of Japan-Philippines defense ties.

Housecarl · Apr 24, 2015

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http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/the-china-pakistan-economic-corridor-is-easier-said-than-done/

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Is Easier Said Than Done

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) raises several questions in the domestic Pakistani context.

By Akhilesh Pillalamarri
April 24, 2015

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China has recently extended Pakistan a much-needed economic lifeline, announcing infrastructure projects that could boost trade and investment. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will connect the western Chinese city of Kashgar with the Pakistani port of Gwadar, in the province of Balochistan, near the Iran-Pakistan border. The project would give Pakistan’s poorest province an economic boast and China access to another route to the Indian Ocean and the Middle East, while connecting many Pakistani cities in between.

Many in Pakistan have hailed the corridor as proof of the eternal and amazing friendship between China and Pakistan, though obviously realpolitik is more likely at work here than anything. After all, a recent article notes that while China has proved a reliable and steady partner for Pakistan, many Chinese do not think highly of Pakistan. China has also proposed economic corridors the Indian Ocean through India and Myanmar.

International relations aside, one of the largest controversies surrounding the CPEC has been a domestic one in Pakistan. The controversy has arisen over the route of the corridor, and the only points of agreement are that it should go from Kashgar to Gwadar. Although politicians from Pakistan’s western and poorer provinces of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan expected the route to pass through their provinces, the final route actually ended up shifted east, passing mostly through the more prosperous and politically dominant Punjab (and to a lesser extent, Sindh) provinces.

The Chief Minister of KP, Pervez Khattak, addressing a press conference, said that the original route was meant to go mostly through cities in his province and Baluchistan (and a couple in Punjab and Gilgit-Baltistan): Khunjerab, Gilgit, Kohistan, Shangla, Battagram, Mansehra, Abbotabad, Haripur, Hassanabad, Mianwali, Dera Ismail Khan, Dera Ghazai Khan, Dera Murad Jamali, Khuzdar, Panjgur and Gwadar.

According to a map provided by BBC News, the route will pass through Islamabad and Lahore now. However, the Pakistani government denied any change to the route. Federal Minister for Planning Ahsan Iqbal said that the project should not fall victim to provincial rivalry: “This impression that the route has been changed is wrong. Turning this into an issue of conflict between provinces is tantamount to sabotaging billions of dollars of investment.”

If the route were changed at some point, though, it is unlikely that it was changed for economic or political reasons alone. Rather, it could have shifted eastward for security reasons, possibly at the request of China, which wants its workers and vehicles to be secure. KP is home to significant Taliban and militant activity while

Balochistan’s lawlessness is increasing due to multiple insurgencies. Chinese workers in Balochistsan have been targeted before.

It remains to be seen how swiftly the new route will be built, and if it will improve the security or economic situation of western Pakistan.

Housecarl · Apr 24, 2015

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/iran-and-pakistan-agree-to-enhance-bilateral-trade/

Iran and Pakistan Agree to Enhance Bilateral Trade

Iran and Pakistan agreed to boost their trade ties, in an agreement that could yield $5 billion in trade growth.

By Ankit Panda
April 24, 2015

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Pakistan is having a productive diplomatic week. Hardly two days after Chinese President Xi Jinping’s departure, Islamabad concluded a five-year trade facilitation plan with neighboring Iran. The deal is expected to yield a $5 billion growth in trade volumes between the two countries.

According to Dawn, a major Pakistani newspaper, the deal was finalized in Tehran on Wednesday, at the seventh Pakistan-Iran Joint Trade Committee meeting. Pakistan’s delegation was spearheaded by Commerce Minister Khurram Dastagir Khan while Reza Nematzadeh, Iran’s Minister for Industry, Mines and Trade led Tehran’s contingent.

The Pakistani side expressed its concern regarding certain protectionist Iranian policies, including import bans, onerous tariffs on textiles, and an overly bureaucratic authorization system for imports.

Pakistan and Iran signed a Preferential Trade Agreement in 2004 that came into effect in September 2006.

Though the two countries have long discussed enhancing their bilateral trade ties, Pakistan’s hands were partly tied due to the international sanctions put in place against Iran over its nuclear program and Islamabad’s close relationship with the United States.

This week’s meeting resulted in both delegations leaving with optimistic expectations, and the anticipated benefits of enhanced trade ties will be multiplied should Iran and the P5+1 group of powers reach a final agreement on Iran’s nuclear program. The deadline for those talks has been set for June 30, 2015.

Despite the prospect for better trade ties, Iran and Pakistan continue to face a range of challenges in their bilateral relationship.

One of the most severe issues on the security front is the Pakistani state’s inability to crack down on Sunni militant groups along the Iran-Pakistan border between the Pakistani province of Balochistan and the Iranian province of Sistan-o-Baluchistan.

In early April, Jaish ul-Adl, one of these Pakistan-based terror groups, ambushed and killed eight Iranian border guards.

Despite the violence on the border, relations between Iran and Pakistan appear to be on an upswing. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif visited Islamabad shortly after the announcement of the framework nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 in Lausanne, Switerland.

Additionally, with recent reports that China will financially back the construction of the Pakistani portion of a long-planned bilateral natural gas pipeline, Iran and Pakistan may be on the cusp of a new era in their bilateral ties.

BREWER · Apr 25, 2015

Posted for fair use and discussion.
http://www.debka.com/article/24558/...le-Hizballah-secret-airstrip-possible-target-

Arab sources report Israel air strikes against Syrian-Hizballah missile bases, Hizballah arms convoys. DEBKAfile: Hizballah secret airstrip possible target
DEBKAfile Special Report April 25, 2015, 11:23 AM (IDT)
Tags: Israeli air strike, Hizballah, missiles, Syria, Qalamoun, Iran's Revolutionary Guards, drones,
Hizballah's first drone airstrip in Beqaa Valley

Unofficial sources in Syria and Lebanon, cited by the Arab TV channels Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya, reported Saturday, April 25, that the Israeli Air Force struck Hizballah and Syrian military targets in the Qalamoun mountains on the Syrian-Lebanese border from Wednesday, April 22, to Friday night April 24. There is no official word on these reports from Israel or Syria.

In the Wednesday attack, one person was said to have been killed.

The picture taking shape from these reports shows the targets to have been the 155th, 65th and 92nd Brigades of the Syrian army and Hizballah, two Hizballah arms convoys and Syrian long-range missile bases or batteries.

debkafile’s military sources add that it is hardly credible that Israeli air raids spread over three days went unnoticed by the Syrian and Lebanese media. The Arab TV reports if confirmed may therefore be exaggerated in scope.

Friday, our own sources reported that Syrian and Hizballah forces under Iranian Revolutionary Guards officers were fighting to flush out the last rebel pockets on the strategic Qalamoun mountains, to clear the highway to Lebanon for unhindered military movements - most importantly, the weapons and personnel flowing regularly across the border between the two allies.

In past reports, debkafile disclosed that Hizballah had transferred the bulk of its personnel and a large store of missiles from northern Lebanon to a protected enclave in Qalamoun under its control. The Iranian-backed Lebanese militia calculated that this base would be safer from Israeli attack than in Lebanon. And, in the event of war, Israel would be obliged to extend its front to Syria. According to Western intelligence sources, long-range missiles are part of the store Hizballah relocated to the Syrian mountains, whence they can be aimed at Israel.

The putative Israeli air strikes this week would therefore have aimed at thwarting Hizballah’s scheme to set up another war base in the Syrian-Lebanese mountains area.

Another likely target would be Hizballah’s first air strip for drones established in the northern Lebanese Beqaa Valley south of Hermel.
Jane’s, a British publication specializing in military affairs, this week ran satellite images showing the airstrip to be 670 m long and 20 m wide, too short for most transport aircraft, excepting the Iranian Revolutionary Guards short take-off An-74T-200 transports, which carry arms for Hizballah – although landing with a load on this mountain strip would be considered dangerous. The runway was apparently built to accommodate drones, such as the Ababil-3 and Shahed-129 types which Iran has delivered to Hizballah.

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