WAR 04-18-2015-to-04-24-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

Housecarl

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(158) 03-21-2015-to-03-27-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...27-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(159) 03-28-2015-to-04-03-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
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(160) 04-04-2015-to-04-10-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
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(161) 04-11-2015-to-04-17-2015_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150418/as--apnewsalert-d3c31540b6.html

Official: at least 22 killed in a suicide motorcycle bombing in eastern Afghanistan

Apr 18, 1:10 AM (ET)

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — Official: at least 22 killed in a suicide motorcycle bombing in eastern Afghanistan.
 

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150418/as--australia-terror_arrests-a5dcc70026.html

Australia arrests 5 on charges of plotting ANZAC Day attack

Apr 18, 1:09 AM (ET)
By KRISTEN GELINEAU

SYDNEY (AP) — Five Australian teenagers were arrested Saturday on suspicion of plotting an Islamic State-inspired terrorist attack at a Veterans' Day ceremony that included targeting police officers, officials said.

The suspects included two 18-year-olds who are alleged to have been preparing an attack at the ANZAC Day ceremony in Melbourne, Australian Federal Police Acting Deputy Commissioner Neil Gaughan told reporters.

Another 18-year-old was arrested on weapons charges and two other men, aged 18 and 19, were in custody and assisting police.

ANZAC stands for the Australian and New Zealand Army Corps and commemorates the World War I battle in Turkey on April 25.

The arrests took place in Melbourne, where a joint counterterrorism team served a total of seven warrants Saturday morning. Police said they were conducting searches at properties.

Police said they believe the plot was inspired by the Islamic State group, also known as ISIS, and was to have involved "edged weapons."

"At this stage we have no information that it was a planned beheading. But there was reference to an attack on police," Gaughan said. "Some evidence that we have collected at a couple of the scenes, and some other information we have, leads us to believe that this particular matter was ISIS-inspired."

Australia's government has raised the country's terror warning level in response to the domestic threat posed by supporters of the Islamic State group. In September last year, the group's spokesman Abu Mohammed al-Adnani issued a message urging attacks abroad, specifically mentioning Australia.

Federal Police Deputy Commissioner Michael Phelan said at a separate news conference that the teens had links to Numan Haider, an 18-year-old who stabbed two Melbourne police officers and was subsequently shot dead in September. Haider had caught authorities' attention months earlier over what police considered to be troubling behavior, including waving what appeared to be an Islamic State flag at a shopping mall.

Phelan said the teens arrested on Saturday had been on officials' radars for months, but the investigation ramped up when it appeared they were planning a specific attack.

"This is a new paradigm for police," Phelan said. "These types of attacks that are planned are very rudimentary and simple. ... All you need these days is a knife, a flag and a camera and one can commit a terrorist act."

Prime Minister Tony Abbott has warned that the terrorism threat in Australia has escalated with one-third of all terrorism-related arrests since 2001 occurring in the last six months. At least 110 Australians have gone to Iraq and Syria to fight alongside extremists, and the nation's security agency is juggling more than 400 high-priority counterterrorism investigations — more than double the number a year ago.

In February, two men were charged with planning to launch an imminent, Islamic State-inspired terrorist attack after authorities said they appeared on a video threatening to stab the kidneys and necks of their victims. And in September, a man arrested during a series of counterterrorism raids was charged with conspiring with an Islamic State leader in Syria to behead a random person in Sydney.

In December, Man Monis, an Iranian-born, self-styled cleric with a long criminal history, took 18 people hostage inside a cafe, forced them to hold up a flag bearing the Islamic declaration of faith and demanded he be delivered a flag of the Islamic State group. Monis and two hostages were killed.

Abbott said the latest alleged plot was at an advanced stage of planning, prompting police to swoop. Still, he urged the public to participate in ANZAC Day events as usual.

"The best sign of defiance we can give to those who would do us harm is to go about a normal, peaceful, free and fair Australian life," he said. "And I say to everyone who is thinking of going to an ANZAC Day event, please don't be deterred. Turn up in the largest possible numbers to support our country."
 

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http://www.breitbart.com/national-s...-to-need-help-launching-a-war-against-israel/

Hizbullah Chief:We Are Going to Need Help Launching a War Against Israel

by John Hayward
17 Apr 2015
Comments 2

Lebanon’s Hizbullah terror gang is normally one of the most active and belligerent terrorist organizations in the world. It is therefore significant that Hizbullah’s Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, told a Syrian News TV interviewer that his organization is not capable of carrying out a war against Israel on its own.

Nasrallah was quite adamant on the point. “I am not talking about the principle. You asked about our capabilities,” he told the Syrian reporter, who had just listened to some of the usual bluster about how fearless and well-armed Hizbullah is, and wondered why they did not use all their ferocity and firepower to take on the Israelis. “We are not claiming that we are capable of this. Indeed, we are incapable of this. Are we supposed to lie to our people and ourselves, saying that we are capable of launching a war against Israel, wiping it off the map, and liberating Palestine? Hizbullah is incapable of doing this all by itself. We have never made such claims. We are realistic.”

It is not often that you see terrorist leaders pulling off Western-style political walkbacks, but Nasrallah does it in this interview, admitting that his big talk about Hizbullah conquering the Galilee was purely metaphorical: “By the way, I was speaking hypothetically. I did not take an oath. I only said that this could happen. In a future war, God forbid… When I say ‘war,’ I mean Israeli aggression against Lebanon.”

Later, he walked back the walkback and said conquering the Galilee was “within the capabilities of the Lebanese resistance,” but “as for going all the way to Tel Aviv and Eilat – well, we do not have that capability. No resistance faction can be responsible for a war of such magnitude by itself. Such a war would cause great damage throughout the region. A decision like this should be taken by partners, who are capable of accomplishing the goal behind declaring such a war.”

(Note: the last time Nasrallah’s “partners” tried “accomplishing that goal,” they did not bother declaring war first, and even with a massive surprise attack, it still did not end well for them. They have been whining about the consequences of their failure non-stop for over forty years.)

Why is Hizbullah backing away from the usual vows of death to Israel? Perhaps Iran and its proxies are spread too thin between Syria, Iraq, and now Yemen. Nasrallah held forth on the latter subject at a rally in Beirut on Friday, denouncing the Saudi-led coalition currently waging airstrikes against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels, promising the Saudis have no choice but to launch a ground invasion that “will be costly and will end with a defeat,” and blaming them for spreading extremist Wahhabi ideology through the Muslim world.

He has a point there, but Iran’s strategy to present itself and its terrorist progeny as a stable alternative to Sunni horror-shows like ISIS and al-Qaeda is one of the worst “lesser of two evils” choices the civilized world has ever been presented with, especially with Iran grasping for nuclear weapons.

Hizbullah presented this choice explicitly in a statement this week, insisting that Iran cannot be compared to the “backward, ignorant, and murderous” Saudis, after the Saudi ambassador to Lebanon told Hizbullah to stay out of Yemen. For good measure, Hizbullah accused its Lebanese political opponents of condoning “genocide” by supporting the Saudis in Yemen.

On Monday, Lebanese TV anchor Hanadi Zaidan dropped a blistering editorial tirade on Hizbullah and its leader Hassan Nasrallah, accusing them of sacrificing Lebanon’s interests out of “blind loyalty to the Iranian birds of darkness.” She said Nasrallah was trying to “implement an Iranian agenda against the Lebanese state,” while crediting the Saudis with providing jobs for thousands of Shiite Lebanese.

The Yemeni crisis is clearly creating a great deal of stress in Lebanon. The contrary explanation for Nasrallah’s admission that he cannot handle war with Israel alone would be that he is trying to rally support for paramilitary action, perhaps a retaliatory wave of terrorism should Israel decide to launch air strikes against Iran’s nuclear program. Based on other evidence, Hizbullah doesn’t seem to have the firepower or political strength in Lebanon to spare for such a campaign at the moment.
 

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http://www.smh.com.au/world/xi-jinp...dian-ocean-nuclear-clash-20150418-1mnt6i.html

Xi Jinping's sale of submarines to Pakistan raises risk of Indian Ocean nuclear clash

Date April 18, 2015 - 11:10AM 58 reading now
David Tweed

Hong Kong: China is likely to conclude a sale of eight conventional submarines during President Xi Jinping's visit to Islamabad on April 20, more than doubling Pakistan's fleet. Analysts say it may be the first step in helping Pakistan gain the ability to fire nuclear weapons at sea, keeping pace with rival India.

The submarine sale will add to tensions in regional waters as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi bulks up India's navy to prevent China from gaining a foothold in the area. Mr Xi's visit, the first by a Chinese head of state to Pakistan since 2006, will also outline investments in gas pipelines, highways and rail links that will give China access to the Arabian Sea, in part through territory claimed by India.

Pakistan has the fastest-growing nuclear program in the world, according to the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations. Its arsenal, built with the help of Chinese technology, stands at between 100 and 120 warheads, compared with China's 250 and India with between 90 and 100.

Bloomberg
 

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http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/india-and-pakistans-proxy-war-in-afghanistan/

India and Pakistan’s Proxy War in Afghanistan

India is keen to emphasize that Pakistan has not always been a good neighbor.

By Catherine Putz
April 15, 2015
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In an interview Tuesday with TOLONews, Amar Sinha, the Indian ambassador to Afghanistan, called the idea of a proxy war between his country and Pakistan playing out in Afghanistan a myth.


[The] India-Pakistan war is somehow getting reflected in Afghanistan… we see many analysts and journalists [calling] it a proxy war, which is a myth. [Rather] it is a smokescreen created to justify Pakistan’s behavior, which has not been [that] of a friendly neighbor.

Sinha, nonetheless, says that India’s “proxy” in Afghanistan is the Afghan people and that Pakistan’s is the Taliban.

Talk of a proxy war between India and Pakistan in Afghanistan has gone both ways for some time. Indian Home Minister Rajnath Singh, whose ministry is responsible for internal security, said in March that Pakistan used terrorism as a weapon in its proxy war with India. Former President of Pakistan Pervez Musharraf said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal in February that “Pakistan and India both must stay away, and not to have this kind of a proxy war going on there.”

The Wall Street Journal did not miss the irony in Musharraf’s remarks as it outlined Islamabad’s support of the Taliban in Afghanistan:


Islamabad was one of the few governments to recognize the Taliban regime in the 1990s, and U.S. and Afghan officials long charged that Pakistan continued to play a “double game” after the Taliban government was toppled by the U.S.-led invasion in 2001, by providing support to an insurgent movement that reconstituted on Pakistani soil, while remaining a major U.S. ally and partner of the American-led coalition that was fighting the Taliban.

In her 2014 book, The Wrong Enemy, Carlotta Gall touches on the issue of Pakistan’s involvement in the Afghanistan war from the U.S. perspective. The title of the book refers directly to a quote from the late Richard Holbrooke, U.S. special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan, who once said “we may be fighting the wrong enemy in the wrong country.”

Competition between India and Pakistan in Afghanistan is high and while the Karzai administration had better relations with India, it seems that the Ghani administration is beginning to lean more toward Pakistan. The EastWest Institute’s Col. James L. Creighton (U.S. Army, Ret.), told our own Ankit Panda in a recent podcast, that “when Ashraf Ghani visited Islamabad in November, that started off a rapprochement with Pakistan that continues to this day.”

Creighton points to positive movements in several security and economic areas as indicative of this rapprochement. This week a delegation from Pakistan attended meetings in Kabul to discuss bilateral trade, including a trade agreement currently in the works. According to MIT’s Observatory of Economic Complexity (which draws from the UN Comtrade database), Afghanistan’s largest export partner is Pakistan (47 percent in 2012) followed by India (22 percent in 2012).

With this seeming rapprochement between Afghanistan and Pakistan, India is keen to emphasize that Pakistan has not always been a good neighbor. In a recent memo, the Council on Foreign Relations’ Alyssa Ayres argues that India could be an even better friend to Afghanistan, especially when it comes to security as the U.S. pulls back, but that ”New Delhi’s concerns about poking a Pakistani hornets’ nest have limited the security partnership.”
 

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http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/18/opinion/reining-in-soldiers-of-fortune.html?_r=0

The Opinion Pages | Op-Ed Contributor

Reining In Soldiers of Fortune

By SEAN MCFATE
APRIL 17, 2015

WASHINGTON — Ten years ago, I found myself in Burundi, sipping a Coke with the country’s president, the American ambassador and the president’s 8-year-old daughter. The president’s life was in danger, and the American government sent me in to keep him alive.

The Rwandan genocide had begun in 1994 after the presidents of Burundi and Rwanda were assassinated. In 2004, an extremist Hutu group planned on assassinating the new president of Burundi to reignite it. My job was to prevent this from happening.

I wasn’t a member of the C.I.A. or a covert military unit. I was a “contractor” (“mercenary” to some), working for a company called DynCorp International. This is increasingly how foreign policy is enacted today.

I’m proud of the work I did as a contractor in Africa, but my buddies from the United States Army’s 82nd Airborne Division, in which I had once served, scowled that I had “gone mercenary” and was lost to “the dark side.” A fellow graduate student at Harvard accused me of being “morally promiscuous.” Yet the work was similar to what I did in the military, and the pay and benefits weren’t that great, despite perceptions to the contrary.

Private military contractors are back in the news after four former Blackwater guards were sentenced to 30 years to life in prison. In 2007, they killed 17 innocent Iraqis in Baghdad. They mistook civilians for terrorists and murdered them. It was wrong. Many around the world have hailed their long prison sentences as a victory for America and Iraq.

But fewer people remember the Haditha massacre of 2005, when a squad of United States Marines murdered 24 innocent Iraqis in a revenge killing spree. It started when one of their Humvees hit an improvised mine, killing one and injuring two more. The squad immediately killed five people in the street. They then went house to house, and killed 19 more civilians, ranging in age from 3 to 76. Many were shot multiple times at close range, some still in their pajamas. One was in a wheelchair.

The military investigated and acquitted the Marines, except one who got a slap on the wrist. The Pentagon blamed the affair on “an unscrupulous enemy” and dismissed it as a “case study” that illustrates “how simple failures can lead to disastrous results.”

Like the Blackwater guards, the Marines committed atrocities. But the outcomes were different. For the Marines, there was a single internal investigation, and the charges were quietly dropped. By contrast, Blackwater’s crime immediately sparked international ire and multiple high-level inquiries. It remains seared in the global imagination as a nadir of the Iraq War. Those contractors will spend most of their lives behind bars; the Marines of Haditha will not.

There have been other abuses, from Abu Ghraib to civilian deaths from air strikes. So far, no American official has been sent to jail for 30 years. The United States seems to hold armed contractors to a higher ethical standard than its own armed forces.

America turned to the private sector for personnel that its all-volunteer military could not muster. In Iraq half of the personnel in war zones were contracted, and in Afghanistan it was closer to 70 percent. America may fight future wars mainly with contractors.

Now others are following America’s lead. Nigeria hired hundreds of mercenaries to fight Boko Haram. Russia is allegedly using them in Ukraine. And oil companies and humanitarian organizations are turning to private military companies to protect their workers and property in dangerous places, and there is an argument that the United Nations should use this industry to augment thinning peacekeeping missions.

Private force isn’t a new phenomenon. Contract warfare was the norm in the Middle Ages. Like today, for-profit warriors were called condottiere (“contractor” in old Italian). They usually fought for the highest bidders: kings, city-states, rich families, even popes.

The problems associated with private force were solved when states began monopolizing the market and put mercenaries out of business. They created large national armies accountable to governments and bonded by patriotism, rather than cash. This process took centuries, but is now unraveling.

Few would welcome a new unbridled market for force, yet it is already developing. The industry continues to proliferate as new consumers seek security in a deeply insecure world. And mercenaries are less expensive than standing armies, just like renting a car is cheaper than owning one. The Congressional Budget Office found in 2008 that Blackwater cost 10 percent less than a comparable army unit in wartime Iraq, and a private force costs nothing in peacetime because its contract can be terminated.

The question now is how to minimize the risks of private armies. Some companies have proposed self-regulation, but that proposal lacks teeth and is dependent on firms confessing their own crimes, which is bad for business. Nor can it be externally regulated; strict laws will only drive these firms offshore or underground.

The solution is to use market power. Superclients, like the United States or the United Nations, could shape best practices by rewarding good firms with profitable contracts and withholding them from bad firms. America or the U.N. could establish a licensing and registration regime that all industry members must observe in order to be eligible for contracts. This would include clear standards for training and vetting members and transparent mechanisms for oversight and accountability.

Multibillion dollar industries don’t just evaporate, and outlawing private security forces won’t work. Relying on the market is the best way to avoid a return to the medieval chaos of armies for hire.

Sean McFate is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and author of “The Modern Mercenary: Private Armies and What They Mean for World Order.”
 

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150418/lt-mexico-violence-056053250e.html

Gunfights and roadblocks hit Mexican border city; 3 dead

Apr 17, 11:57 PM (ET)
By ALFREDO PENA

CIUDAD VICTORIA, Mexico (AP) — Gunfights and blockades of burning vehicles broke out Friday in the border city of Reynosa, across from McAllen, Texas, leaving at least three dead, Mexican authorities said.

The government of the border state of Tamaulipas said federal police and soldiers had "detained members of a criminal gang that operates in Reynosa," an apparent reference to Gulf cartel members.

"Members of the same criminal group reacted (to the arrests) by attacking federal forces and carrying out blockades in the city," the statement said.

Officials said roads in the city were blocked with vehicles set on fire by gunmen.

The state government said three armed civilians, presumably cartel gunmen, had been killed in the confrontations. Authorities said the situation was brought under control by late afternoon.

The detained gang members were taken to Mexico City, the state government said.

A state official who was not authorized to be quoted by name confirmed reports that a top member of the Gulf cartel's Reynosa faction had been detained. The gang leader has been known by his nickname "El Gafe," but his real name could not immediately be confirmed. The nickname apparently refers to a now-disbanded Mexican special forces military group.

The U.S. consulate in Matamoros issued a message urging U.S. citizens to take precautions because of "several firefights and roadblocks throughout the city of Reynosa." The city government posted a warning on its Twitter site recommending motorists avoid several areas, including the highway leading to the nearby city of Matamoros.

Warring factions of the Gulf cartel in Reynosa and Matamoros, known as the Metros and the Ciclones, have been fighting turf battles around the two cities.
 

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http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/04/19/yemen-security-iran-idINKBN0NA01R20150419

Top | Sun Apr 19, 2015 8:01am IST

Yemen government rejects Iranian peace plan


(Reuters) - Yemen's government has rejected a four-point peace plan for the country that Iran submitted to the United Nations, a spokesman said on Saturday.

Saudi Arabia and its Sunni Arab coalition partners have been bombing Iranian-allied Houthi rebels for three weeks in order to halt advances that could give the rebels full control of the country.

The conflict, though rooted in local rivalries, has been described as a proxy war between predominantly Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shi'ite Iran, both top OPEC oil producers.

The Iranian plan calls for an immediate ceasefire and end of all foreign military attacks, humanitarian assistance, a resumption of broad national dialogue and "establishment of an inclusive national unity government."

"We reject the Iranian initiative," Yemeni government spokesman Rajeh Badi told Reuters by telephone from Qatar's capital, Doha. "The goal of the initiative is only a political maneuver."

Yemen's government and its main supporter, Saudi Arabia, have accused Iran of meddling in Yemen's affairs as part of an effort to dominate the region. Iran denies the allegations.

Iran has also dismissed accusations it is providing direct military support to Houthi fighters, Shi'ites from the north who have been closing in on the southern port city of Aden.

Western and Arab diplomats in New York have shown little interest in the Iranian plan, saying they do not consider Iran a neutral peace broker in Yemen, a small oil producer also destabilized by attacks by al Qaeda's most lethal branch.

The United Nations said about 150,000 people had been driven from their homes by air strikes and ground fighting, with more than 750 people killed.

Saudi Arabia has said its aim is to carry out air strikes to force the Houthis to negotiate with the government, which is in exile.

U.S. President Barack Obama and Saudi King Salman agreed in a telephone conversation on Friday that a negotiated political solution was essential for lasting peace in Yemen, the White House said in a statement.

Conflict in Yemen risks spilling out onto busy sea lanes that pass it and potentially disrupt the narrow Bab el-Mandeb passage through which nearly 4 million barrels of oil are shipped daily to Europe, the United States and Asia.


(Reporting by Yara Bayoumy; Writing by Michael Georgy; Editing by Jonathan Oatis)
 

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http://news.yahoo.com/france-provides-first-weapons-lebanon-islamic-state-fight-054034475.html

France provides first weapons to Lebanon for Islamic State fight

AFP
By Eric Randolph and Valerie Leroux
3 hours ago

Paris (AFP) - The first French weapons from a $3 billion Saudi-funded programme will arrive in Lebanon on Monday as allies seek to bolster the country's defences against the Islamic State group and other jihadists pressing along its Syrian border.

Anti-tank guided missiles are set to arrive at an air force base in Beirut, overseen by French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and his Lebanese counterpart, Samir Mokbel.

France is expected to deliver 250 combat and transport vehicles, seven Cougar helicopters, three small corvette warships and a range of surveillance and communications equipment over four years as part of the $3 billion (2.8 billion-euro) modernisation programme.

It is being entirely funded by Saudi Arabia, which is keen to see Lebanon's army defend its borders against jihadist groups, particularly the Islamic State group and Al-Qaeda-linked Al-Nusra, instead of leaving the job to Hezbollah militants, who are backed by its regional rival, Iran.

The contract also promises seven years of training for the 70,000-strong Lebanese army and 10 years of equipment maintenance.

"This project is to help us re-establish a Lebanese army capable of responding to new security realities," said a French defence official.

Since the conflict in neighbouring Syria broke out in 2011, Lebanon has faced mounting spill-over threats, first from the millions of refugees pouring across the border and increasingly from jihadists.

"There are an estimated 3,000 armed militants based on our border, waiting for the moment to penetrate into the Bekaa valley," said Hisham Jaber, a former general now at the Middle East Centre for the Study of Public Relations in Beirut.

"They haven't come for tourism or to go skiing."

- 'Good fortune' -

Former colonial power France is actually a late-comer to the conflict, with almost all Lebanon's international support coming from the United States and Britain in recent years.

France only won the contract to supply the Lebanese army, argued analyst Aram Nerguizian, because Saudi Arabia had been frustrated by US and British refusal to attack the Syrian regime in 2013.

"It was good fortune for the French, but they have a lot to prove. The momentum of the US and UK defence programmes in Lebanon is far more consolidated," said Nerguizian, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

The challenge has been to find French military equipment that Lebanon actually needs, he said, and to ensure it can be integrated with their existing weapon systems.

Nerguizian said Lebanon had turned down France's Gazelle attack helicopter, Leclerc tank and larger warships, either because they were too expensive to maintain or not suited to the combat environment.

Instead, the focus is likely to be on radar capabilities, and command-and-control systems, which the Lebanese army currently lack, as well as transport aircraft.

"We urgently need helicopters. We are currently trying to transport elite units by truck," said Jaber.

The Cougar helicopters and corvette warships must first be built, and the first are not expected for at least 30 months.

- 'Night and day' -

A key problem has been France's unexplained reluctance to discuss the details of its modernisation programme with the US and Britain, said Nerguizian.

"They have perplexed their UK and US partners by not being clear about what is on the list," he said. "They need to be complementary or it becomes a problem."

Washington has provided around three-quarters of Lebanon's foreign military aid over the past decade -– some $700 million -– as well as Special Forces teams to train its elite units, according to IHS Jane's, a London-based think tank.

Britain has provided training facilities as well as watch towers and forward operating bases along the border with Syria.

This has led to a dramatic improvement in the Lebanese army's capabilities, said Nerguizian.

"Compared with just three years ago, it's like night and day. They have gone from a constabulary police force to being the only military in the world that is defending its frontiers against ISIS," he said.

But working with Lebanon is never simple. The sharp divisions between its religious and ethnic communities have been deepened by conflicting views on the Syrian war.

Hezbollah, which is a powerful political force in Lebanon, sent its fighters to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad last year, but many Lebanese still deeply resent the Assad regime which effectively colonised the country up to 2005.

Meanwhile, Israel remains concerned about any military assistance that might bolster a regional rival or fall into the hands of Hezbollah, which fought a short and brutal war against Israel as recently as 2006.

"The Lebanese army is already well-infiltrated by Hezbollah," said an Israeli official on condition of anonymity. "But we understand the necessity of reinforcing the capacity of the Lebanese army."

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http://news.yahoo.com/iran-guard-rejects-inspection-military-sites-063048778.html

Iran Guard rejects inspection of military sites

Associated Press
1 hour ago

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — A senior commander in Iran's Revolutionary Guard said Sunday that inspectors would be barred from military sites under any nuclear agreement with world powers.

Gen. Hossein Salami, the Guard's deputy leader, said on state TV that allowing the foreign inspection of military sites is tantamount to "selling out."

"We will respond with hot lead (bullets) to those who speak of it," Salami said. "Iran will not become a paradise for spies. We will not roll out the red carpet for the enemy."

Iran and six world powers -- the U.S., the U.K., France, Germany, China and Russia -- have reached a framework agreement to curb Tehran's nuclear program in return for lifting sanctions, and hope to strike a final deal by June 30.

A fact sheet on the framework accord issued by the State Department said Iran would be required to grant the U.N. nuclear agency access to any "suspicious sites." Iran has questioned that and other language in the fact sheet, notably that sanctions would only be lifted after the International Atomic Energy Agency has verified Tehran's compliance. Iran's leaders have said the sanctions should be lifted on the first day of the implementation of the accord.

The fact sheet said Iran has agreed to implement the Additional Protocol to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which would grant the IAEA expanded access to both declared and undeclared nuclear facilities.

But Salami said allowing foreign inspectors to visit a military base would amount to "occupation," and expose "military and defense secrets."

"It means humiliating a nation," Salami said on state TV. "They will not even be permitted to inspect the most normal military site in their dreams."

Iran allowed IAEA inspectors to visit the Parchin military site in 2005 as a confidence-building measure, but denied further visits, fearing espionage.

Western nations have long suspected Iran of secretly pursuing a nuclear weapons capability alongside its civilian program. Tehran denies such allegations, and insists its nuclear program is entirely peaceful.

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http://news.yahoo.com/khamenei-says-iran-nuclear-weapons-myth-083405873.html

Khamenei says Iran nuclear weapons are a 'myth'

Reuters
9 minutes ago

DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Sunday the United States had created the "myth" of nuclear weapons to portray Iran as a threat, hardening his rhetoric before nuclear negotiations resume this week.

Khamenei has supported the talks but has continued to express deep mistrust of the United States. As the highest authority in Iran, the withdrawal of his support could cause the negotiations to collapse.

"They created the myth of nuclear weapons so they could say the Islamic Republic is a source of threat. No, the source of threat is America itself," Khamenei said in comments cited by the semi-official Fars news agency.

"The other side is methodically and shamelessly threatening us militarily ... even if they did not make these overt threats, we would have to be prepared," he said in an address to military commanders.

Iran and six world powers including the United States reached a framework accord on Iran's disputed nuclear programme this month and will resume negotiations in Vienna this week aiming to reach a final deal by the end of June.

Despite significant progress, the two sides still disagree on several issues, including how quickly international sanctions would be lifted under a final deal.

(Reporting by Sam Wilkin. Editing by Jane Merriman)

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http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...forsaken-books-for-kalashnikovs-10187235.html

Yemen crisis: Meet the child soldiers who have forsaken books for Kalashnikovs

With schools forced to close, children as young as seven have been recruited by the Shia Houthi rebels

Charlene Rodrigues, Mohammed Al-Qalisi
Sanaa
Sunday 19 April 2015

At the entrance of Bab Al-Yemen, Old Sanaa, a waif-like Hassan, dwarfed by his Kalashnikov, stands at a checkpoint. His dark eyes scan vehicles as they pass through.

Like most seven-year-olds in Sanaa, Hassan used to spend his time at school – or playing table football with his friends. That was until three weeks ago.

“Now my school is closed,” he says, carefully scrutinising the white Toyota Yaris entering the old city. In less than a week, Hassan went from being a pupil in class to manning the capital’s checkpoints on behalf of the Houthi rebels. Their takeover of the city last year eventually led to Yemen’s president fleeing the city and pushed the country towards the current clashes around the nation. “We are fighting to protect our country from the enemies,” Hassan says indignantly.

More than 700 people are believed to have been killed in recent weeks, including dozens of children, who are increasingly caught up in the fighting. Thousands have been injured and more than 150,000 people have been displaced around the country, according to the UN.

Last month, fighting between the Houthi rebels and the Saudi Arabia-backed forces of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi intensified. As a result, Saudi Arabia, with a number of other regional Sunni allies, launched an intensive campaign of airstrikes against the Houthi at the end of the month. That campaign, which has involved targets across the country, continues. There were clashes in the city of Taiz, following airstrikes the night before.

Mr Hadi fled the capital earlier this year to Aden, which has become the scene of some of the most intense fighting as the Houthis push south from their northern strongholds. Meanwhile, independent tribes – some aligned to Mr Hadi, some not – and others seeking separation of the south from the rest of the country have been drawn into the conflict.

In addition, al-Qaeda’s franchise in the country, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (Aqap), is looking to take advantage of the power vacuum. It has made gains in recent days. There is also clear potential for the involvement of groups that might align themselves with Islamic State (Isis). Some reports say some of these have already done so.

Jamal al-Shami, chairman of the Democracy School, a local NGO based in Sanaa, says responsibility for the increasing involvement of children in the conflict lies not only with the government, but also with the Houthis and southern militias who have been encouraging them to take up weapons. Children can be drawn in by money and a sense of duty to defend their tribal factions.

“Schools are closed and children have easy access to weaponry,” he says. “All parties to the conflict have welcomed them with open arms. It’s a mess.”

Hassan is one of millions of Yemeni children whose access to education ended when the Saudi-led coalition began its military campaign to dislodge the Houthi rebels.

An official from the UN warned earlier this month that around 30 per cent of fighters in the armed groups involved in the conflict are under 18. “We are seeing children in battle, at checkpoints and, unfortunately, among [those] killed and injured,” Julien Harneis, Unicef’s representative in Yemen, told the French news agency AFP.

The precarious security situation makes the exact numbers of young combatants, who are with several warring factions, hard to obtain.

Such combatants on the front line, inspecting vehicles or patrolling the heavily fortified checkpoints in Yemen, are not uncommon. Children have been used for military purposes even before the Houthi rebels took over Sanaa, despite the official age for joining Yemen’s army being 18.

The apparent increase in child soldiers comes despite previous attempts to put an end to the recruitment of minors by the Yemeni Armed Forces and others. Last May, an action plan was signed between the Yemeni government and the UN to formally end and prevent any further recruitment of children. Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, leader of the Houthis, also previously pledged that he would stop recruiting child soldiers But this has not affected Hassan. “Our leader [referring to the Houthi] has called us to fight the enemy. I carry a weapon to protect myself, my family and my country,” he says proudly.

Hassan, who lives in the Safiya district of Sanaa, has no formal training but he says: “My father teaches me to use the Kalashnikov.”

Another combatant is 11-year-old Asif. Since he was six, he has been visiting Saada, in northern Yemen, to train with the Houthi rebels.

“I will only do what is said in the Koran,” he says. “I don’t enjoy school, I’ve never been to school. I enjoy fighting for my country against Saudi Arabia and Isis.” Despite being trained for the front line, Asif says his work has centred around patrolling the streets and manning the capital’s security checkpoints.

Once the Houthi rebels entered the capital, he started carrying his gun regularly. He denies receiving remuneration, but concedes he gets a meal and a bag of khat, a narcotic plant widely used in the region, in return for his participation.

“My parents are proud of me and encourage me to fight,” he says.

With war waging in different parts of the country, many families encourage their young to fight with the militias, says Mr Shami. “For them, it is also a much-needed source of income.”

Saudi Arabia has repeatedly accused Shia-majority Iran, which supports the Houthis, of supplying the rebels with training, along with other help. This is something Iran has denied, although the war of words has raised fears about wider implications for the region.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has warned Saudi Arabia that, through the airstrikes, it has “planted the seeds of hatred in this region, and you will see the response sooner or later”.

Iran said last week that it had submitted a letter to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon outlining a four-point peace plan for Yemen. Its Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said this calls for an immediate ceasefire and an end to all foreign military attacks. In addition, it wants humanitarian assistance and a resumption of a broad national dialogue, as well as the “establishment of an inclusive national unity government”.

Even before the airstrikes, more than 16 million of Yemen’s population were in need of humanitarian assistance. The intensity of the air campaign – and the huge numbers of displaced people – have meant rising unemployment. In many instances, this has forced young children to shoulder the financial burden of their families.

The UN appealed late last week for $274m (£183m) in humanitarian aid for the country. It was then reported that Saudi Arabia had pledged that much itself.

Mohammed, 13, from the Hajjah province in west Yemen, has not seen his family for more than six months. He has been travelling across the country to fight with the Houthi rebels. Without school, his experience of childhood is of firing guns in battle. “Last year, I went to fight with the Houthis – first in Amran and then in the capital in Sanaa,” he declares proudly. “Like me, there are hundreds of young children fighting with [the Houthis] in Marib [a city to the east of Sanaa].”

From Shahara, next to Hajjah province, Mohammed dismisses the need for school, saying his parents never had an education. The family sustain themselves by working the farm, growing wheat and barley.

Mr Shami warns that there will be bigger battles ahead, if and when the war ends. “Many children have got used to the income, violence and battlefields. It will be hard to convince them to return to a classroom.”

Names have been changed to protect identities, and no one in this feature appears in the accompanying photographs
 

Housecarl

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http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/pakistan-tests-ballistic-missile/

Pakistan Tests Ballistic Missile

For the first time since 2012, Pakistan tests a nuclear-capable medium-range ballistic missile.

By Franz-Stefan Gady
April 18, 2015
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The Pakistani military successfully test-fired a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) this Wednesday, AFP reported.

The nuclear-capable Ghauri MRBM (aka Hatf-V), developed by Khan Research Laboratories under the Pakistani-integrated missile research and development program, is allegedly a variation of North Korea’s Rodong-1 missile.

The test was conducted by the Strategic Missile Group of the Army Strategic Forces Command (ASFC). “The training launch of the Ghauri missile system was aimed at testing operational and technical readiness,” the military said in a statement.

The head of the Strategic Plans Division, Lt. Gen. Zubair Mahmood Hayat, congratulated the scientists, engineers, and all ranks of the strategic forces, expressing his satisfaction with the “excellent standard” displayed by Pakistan’s strategic forces.

It appears that the test involved a Ghauri-I MRBM with a range of 1,300 kilometers (807 miles) and the capacity to carry up to a 700 kilogram conventional or nuclear warhead. The missile was launched from a transporter erector launcher on the Tilla Test Range in Jhelum District, Pakistan, according to army-technology.com.

Pakistan also fields the Ghauri-II MRBM, with a maximum range of 2,300 kilometers. The development of a third variant, the Ghauri-III, with a range of up to 3,000 kilometers, has been abandoned for unknown reasons. The last test of a Ghauri MRBM occurred in November 2012.

Back then, various Pakistani experts voiced concerns that the missile may not be capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and that it also might not be the ideal weapon of choice for Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent vis-à-vis India and other operational needs. Mansoor Ahmed, a lecturer in the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies at Quaid-e-Azam University, noted:


Unlike solid-fueled missiles, liquid-fueled ballistic missiles cannot store the fuel for long periods and have to be refueled prior to launch, which takes several hours, thus making them vulnerable to first strikes. Given the relative lack of Pakistan’s strategic depth, such systems are not the first choice in missile systems for nuclear warhead delivery, which explains why the Ghauri remains the only liquid-fueled system in its missile inventory.

However, testing liquid-fueled missiles is a cheaper alternative to solid-fueled MRBMs when testing launch and control systems, he acknowledged.

Islamabad did not have to wait long for New Delhi’s reaction. The following day, April 15, the Indian Army’s Strategic Forces Command successfully tested the nuclear-capable Agni-III surface-to-surface missile from Wheeler Island, off of the Odisha coast.

According to army-technology.com, the Agni-III is “a two-stage intermediate-range ballistic missile designed to intercept targets located at a distance of 3,500km to 5,000km.”

AFP reports that tensions between India and Pakistan are higher than usual since last Friday, when Islamabad released on bail Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, the alleged mastermind of the 2008 Mumbai attacks.
 

Housecarl

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Considering the US has been "grooming" Ethiopia in the same manner as Egypt to "deal" with this problem, IS may well find this wasn't a good move.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015...s-islamicstate-killings-idUSKBN0NA0IE20150419

World | Sun Apr 19, 2015 1:51pm EDT
Related: World, Libya, Iraq, Africa

Islamic State shoots and beheads 30 Ethiopian Christians in Libya: video

CAIRO | By Sylvia Westall

(Reuters) - A video purportedly made by Islamic State and posted on social media sites on Sunday appeared to show militants shooting and beheading about 30 Ethiopian Christians in Libya.

Reuters was not able to verify the authenticity of the video but the killings resemble past violence carried out by Islamic State, an ultra-hardline group which has expanded its reach from strongholds in Iraq and Syria to conflict-ridden Libya.

The video, in which militants call Christians "crusaders" who are out to kill Muslims, showed about 15 men being beheaded on a beach and another group of the same size, in an area of shrubland, being shot in the head.

Both groups of men are referred to in a subtitle as "worshippers of the cross belonging to the hostile Ethiopian church".

Libyan officials were not immediately available for comment.

Ethiopia said it had not been able to verify whether the people shown in the video were its citizens.

"Nonetheless, the Ethiopian government condemns the atrocious act," government spokesman Redwan Hussein said.

He said Ethiopia, which does not have an embassy in Libya, would help repatriate Ethiopians if they wanted to leave Libya.

Militants professing loyalty to Islamic State have claimed several high-profile attacks on foreigners in Libya this year, including an assault on the Corinthia Hotel in Tripoli and the beheading of 21 Egyptian Christians in February.

The killing of the Egyptians prompted Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to order air strikes on Islamic State targets in Libya.

In the latest video, a man dressed in black clutching a pistol stood behind some of the victims.

"Muslim blood shed under the hands of your religions is not cheap," he says, looking at the camera. "To the nation of the cross: We are now back again."

The video concludes with a warning that Christians will not be safe unless they embrace Islam or pay protection money.

Islamic State controls large parts of Iraq and Syria and wants to redraw the map of the Middle East. It is not clear how many fighters it has in Libya, an oil-producing nation.

Egyptian security officials estimate that thousands of militants who share Islamic State's ideology moved from the Sinai Peninsula to Libya after the army toppled President Mohamed Mursi of the Muslim Brotherhood in 2013.


(Additional reporting by Ahmed Tolba in Cairo and Aaron Maasho in Addis Ababa; Writing by Michael Georgy; Editing by Gareth Jones)
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
So, where is he going?

News_Executive @News_Executive · 4m 4 minutes ago

Breaking: US President Obama has Abruptly Left the White House a short time ago on a Unscheduled trip, Destination still Unknown.
 

Housecarl

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For links see article source.....
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http://www.breitbart.com/national-s...i-intervention-in-yemen-is-doomed-to-failure/

Generals: Saudi Intervention in Yemen is Doomed to Failure
by John Hayward
19 Apr 20150

According to a report by al-Jazeera, several American generals are skeptical that Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen will succeed. A “senior commander at CENTCOM” claimed the Saudis did not keep the operation secret from American authorities because they feared the Obama Administration inform Iran, but rather because the Saudis feared the Pentagon would dismiss their battle plan as a “bad idea” and try to talk them out of it.

“Military sources said that a number of regional special forces officers and officers at U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM) argued strenuously against supporting the Saudi-led intervention because the target of the intervention, the Shia Houthi movement — which has taken over much of Yemen and which Riyadh accuses of being a proxy for Tehran — has been an effective counter to Al-Qaeda,” writes al-Jazeera.

Consultant Michael Horton expressed strong skepticism towards the notion that the Houthi rebels in Yemen are serving as Iranian proxies.

“These constant reports that the Houthis are working for the Iranians are nonsense, but the view is right out of the neocon playbook,” said Horton. “The Israelis have been touting this line that we lost Yemen to Iran. That’s absurd. The Houthis don’t need Iranian weapons. They have plenty of their own. And they don’t require military training. They’ve been fighting Al-Qaeda since at least 2012, and they’ve been winning. Why are we fighting a movement that’s fighting Al-Qaeda?”

For the record, the Iranians have continued to send the Houthis weapons — to the point where even the Iran-aligned Obama State Department asked them to stop last week.

Horton also is not bullish on the Saudis’ ability to carry out their Yemen battle plan successfully. “Frankly, they cannot begin to manage this,” he said. “They have all the toys but few people who know how to effectively use them. Their NCO and officer corps are largely untested, and their enlisted men are drawn from the lowest rungs of Saudi society. If they get bogged down in Yemen, I wonder about the loyalty of many of the soldiers and NCOs. The Egyptians will not fare much better.”

Reuters adds that humanitarian concerns about the situation in Yemen have been exacerbated by the Saudi air strikes. The United Nations “said about 150,000 people had been driven from their homes by three weeks of air strikes and ground fighting and more than 750 people killed,” and that “many schools, hospitals and mosques had been damaged or destroyed in the conflict.”

On the other hand, contrary to al-Jazeera’s gloomy assessment of the campaign, Reuters finds some evidence that it is working. Although insurgent former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, who is allied with the Houthis and helped depose current President Hadi, is still defiant in public, there are reports that “some army units loyal to Saleh have defected and now support Hadi,” and Saudi television news claims Saleh and his family might be looking for a way out of Yemen.
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
So, where is he going?

News_Executive @News_Executive · 4m 4 minutes ago

Breaking: US President Obama has Abruptly Left the White House a short time ago on a Unscheduled trip, Destination still Unknown.

Yeah, that was what crossed my mind too, then I told myself, it's probably nothing....I hope.

See, nothing.


News_Executive @News_Executive · 6m 6 minutes ago

Update: Looks like President Obama and his family are taking a nature hike in Great Falls Park and nothing dramatic about his trip.
 

Housecarl

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http://www.voanews.com/content/us-r...rth-korea-over-rights-violations/2726244.html

US 'Reviewing Options' on N. Korea Over Human Rights Violations

Sungwon Baik
April 19, 2015 8:13 PM

The United States is “reviewing options” to hold North Korean officials accountable for human rights violations.

“We’re reviewing options related to accountability for North Korean officials responsible for serious human rights violations, which the Commission of Inquiry concluded in many instances may amount to crimes against humanity,” a State Department spokesperson told VOA's Korean Service, in reference to a United Nations panel report on North Korea’s human rights conditions released in February 2014.

The State Department official said Friday the U.S. will work with the international community to press for North Korea “to stop these serious violations, to close its prison camps, to urge greater freedoms for North Koreans and to seek ways to advance accountability for those most responsible.”

The official’s comments come as talks between the U.S. and North Korea over the communist country’s nuclear weapons program are at a standstill. The nuclear talks have been stalled since late 2008. Washington insists Pyongyang show commitment toward denuclearization before it agrees to resume the talks. Pyongyang demands Washington withdraw what it calls hostile policies against the country.

The official said an executive order signed by President Barack Obama earlier this year provides authority for a possible action against those responsible for human rights violations in the North.

“The executive order that the president signed on January 2 provides a wide-reaching new authority and strengthens our existing sanctions program on the DPRK,” the official said.

President Obama took the measure against Pyongyang for its alleged cyberattack on Sony Pictures last November. Under the order, 10 North Korean officials and three government agencies were sanctioned. Washington accused Pyongyang of launching the attack in response to the studio’s release of The Interview, a comedy film that depicted a fictional assassination of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Pyongyang denied involvement in the attack.

Earlier, Sung Kim, U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy, warned that Washington could use the executive order to press Pyongyang, saying the measure provides a “framework for addressing the full range of DPRK illicit behavior going forward.”


Related Articles

HRW: N. Korean Founder's Birthday Should Bring Focus on Abuses
UN's Nuclear Treaty Review Comes Amid Heightened Proliferation Concerns
 

Housecarl

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http://in.rbth.com/blogs/2015/04/20...hoi_is_bad_news_for_indias_enemies_42687.html

Why the BrahMos armed Sukhoi is bad news for India’s enemies
April 20, 2015 Rakesh Krishnan Simha

By successfully modifying the Su-30MKI to carry the supersonic BrahMos missile, India has signalled its intent to strike with devastating force early on in a conflict.

India has signalled its intent to strike enemy targets with devastating force early on in a conflict.

In September 2010 India’s newly constituted tri-services Strategic Forces Command (SFC) submitted a proposal to the Defence Ministry for setting up two dedicated squadrons of aircraft comprising 40 Su-30MKI air dominance fighters. The task of this “mini air force” is to deliver nuclear weapons.

The picture became clearer in October 2012 when the Cabinet Committee on Security green lighted a programme to carry out structural and software modifications on 42 Su-30MKIs and acquire 216 air-launched BrahMos missiles. Until then, the BrahMos – the product of an India-Russia joint venture – was for exclusive use by the Navy.

In March 2015 the SFC received the first of these 42 Sukhois equipped with the air launched version of the supersonic BrahMos. This is the first time that the SFC, which at present depends on the Indian Air Force (IAF) for delivering nuclear weapons under its command, is acquiring its own aerial assets.

пустым не оставлять!!

India proud to be armed with the Su-30MKI fighter – Indian Minister

Currently, India’s nuclear delivery system is based on land-based ballistic missiles such as the Agni and Prithvi plus the IAF’s nuclear-capable Mirage 2000, Su-30 MKI and Jaguar fighter-bombers. The final element of the nuclear triad, submarine-launched missiles, is still being tested.

Individually, the Su-30 and BrahMos are powerful weapons. But when the world’s most capable fourth generation fighter is armed with a uniquely destructive cruise missile, together they are a dramatic force multiplier.

The BrahMos’ 3000 km per second speed – literally faster than a bullet – means it hits the target with a huge amount of kinetic energy. In tests, the BrahMos has often cut warships in half and reduced ground targets to smithereens. The Sukhoi’s blistering speed will add extra launch momentum to the missile, plus the aircraft’s ability to penetrate hardened air defences means there is a greater chance for the pilot to deliver the missile on to its designated targets.

Likely targets

Considering that India’s primary enemy is Pakistan and that country’s chief backer is China, against which India has fought two conflicts – losing in 1962 and winning in 1967 – these two countries are the obvious targets.

Against Pakistan, the targets are obvious. A two-squadron attack using most of the SFC’s air assets can within minutes utterly cripple the country’s command and control centres; nuclear power plants, including the Kahuta ‘Death Star’ where the majority of the “Islamic” bombs are manufactured; the Sargodha Central Ammunition Depot west of Lahore where these warheads are stored; ballistic missile bases in Gujranwala, Okara, Multan, Jhang and Dera Nawab Shah; Pakistani Army Corp headquarters in Rawalpindi; the Karachi Port, Pakistani’s only major harbour and its Naval HQ; and ordinance factories that manufacture tanks and fighter aircraft.

Related:

Hypersonic missiles are the future for India and Russia – new BrahMos Chief

Su-30MKI vs. Rafale: A virtual battle

Dissecting a dogfight: Sukhoi vs USAF at Red Flag 2008

Russia’s Su-30 fighters upgraded to carry supersonic cruise missiles

The supersonic BrahMos armed with a conventional warhead can theoretically penetrate hardened command, control and communication centres. However, there is no guarantee these targets will be 100 per cent destroyed unless the BrahMos is nuclear tipped. A pre-emptive nuclear strike will therefore ensure that Pakistan’s offensive capability is effectively neutralised and it is never again a threat to India.

Against China, the Sukhoi-BrahMos one-two punch seems counter-intuitive as Chinese targets are located deep inland or on the coast. However, the Su-30MKI has a maximum range of 3000 km (extendable to 8000 km with in-flight refuelling). Now add the BrahMos’s 300 km reach and India can hit targets 3300 km inside China.

Why the Sukhoi-BrahMos option?

The Su-30MKI is an obvious choice. The SFC does not want untested fighters but the ones which can be relied upon to deliver nuclear-tipped missiles. The aircraft has a titanium airframe strong enough to fly a high-speed terrain following profile. The batch of 42 Sukhois will also have hardened electronic circuitry to shield them from the electromagnetic pulse of a nuclear blast.

Having a dedicated aircraft for the nuclear attack role offers India’s war planners strategic flexibility and increases the odds of success. Because ballistic missiles are used only as a weapon of last resort, they cannot really be deployed at will. Once released, they cannot be recalled and if shot down are not easily replaced. Fighter aircraft, on the other hand, can perform repeated sorties and be directed to bomb targets as they move. For instance, if Pakistan moves it warheads out of Sargodha depot, which is presumably under constant watch by Indian satellites, the Sukhois can be vectored against a column of Pakistani trucks transporting their nuclear cargo.

The SFC’s mini air force of 42 Sukhois can also launch their missiles against Pakistani targets from within Indian airspace or while flying over international waters, thereby complicating the enemy’s defences. It is a lot easier for India to destroy Pakistani war fighting capability because not only is Pakistan relatively smaller but it has also concentrated its defences in one province, Punjab.
пустым не оставлять!!

India will focus on Su-30MKI’s modernisation, arming jet with BrahMos

Further developments

Because heavy modifications were necessary for integrating such a heavy missile onto the Su-30MKI, initially it seemed to make little sense to deploy a single missile. Aviation Week reports that initially even Sukhoi was reluctant to go along. That prompted HAL to go solo, but Aviation Week says Sukhoi came on board in 2011. The Russian side provided HAL with technical consultancy especially for the modifications to the fuselage in order to accommodate the 9-metre-long missile.

“Work is also underway on a modified lighter and smaller-diameter version of the BrahMos for deployment on the Indian navy's MiG-29K and, potentially, the Dassault Rafale,” says Aviation Week.

And signalling the country’s immunity from western sanctions, DRDO scientists say the 300 km cap on the missile’s range will be removed. The next generation BrahMos is likely to be a longer range weapon. And with the planned increased in speed, the missile will have considerably enhanced kinetic energy despite its smaller size optimised for relatively smaller aircraft such as the MiG-29.

That’s really bad news if you are in the Sukhoi-BrahMos crosshairs.

The opinion of the writer may not necessarily reflect the position of RIR.

_____

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http://in.rbth.com/economics/2015/04/06/future_belongs_to_air_combat_drones_-_mig_creator_42431.html

Future belongs to air combat drones - MiG creator
April 6, 2015 Mir robotov

Ovanes Mikoyan, son of the famous creator of the Soviet MiG jets, aircraft builder and adviser to director of the Structural Engineering Centre of the Mikoyan Design Bureau said in an interview with Moskovsky Komsomolets, that the future of aviation is in drones.

B187_104307_0006_468.jpg

http://nl.media.rbth.ru/web/in-rbth/images/2015-04/big/6/B187_104307_0006_468.jpg

Russia is developing a series of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Active work in this area began in 2008, when the conflict with Georgia showed a need for reconnaissance and combat drones, and the Soviet Pchyola (Bee) and Reys (Flight) no longer met modern battlefield needs.

“This theme (of UAVs) must be developed,” said Ovanes Mikoyan, son of the famous creator of the Soviet MiG aircraft. “A pilot need not be always sent to the front line. It is enough to have an operator on the ground, who can fly a drone to the destination, and perform almost all the same tasks as a pilot, albeit a little worse than now, but with lower losses,” said Mikoyan, also an aircraft designer and adviser to the Structural Engineering Centre of the Mikoyan Design Bureau.

In Russia, according to Mikoyan, “all and sundry” are working on the development of drones, with the Mikoyan Design Bureau having its own projects as well.

“We have lots of ideas at the Design Bureau. The important thing is that the state provides support. Then the future will not be only in the company that bears my father’s name, but in the overall Russian aviation industry,” said Mikoyan.

It is worth noting that the MiG Design Bureau, together with Klimov OJSC, presented the concept of a full-sized model of a stealth jet-powered UAV – the Skat, back in 2007, during the MAKS-2007 Air show. Despite its promising features, (maximum takeoff weight of 10 tons, and practical range of 4000 m), stealth, and consequently ultramodern appearance (vaguely reminiscent of the American carrier-based UAV X-47B, it was first presented to the public in 2008) this program was soon cancelled.

Instead, in July 2012, the “overpowering” Sukhoi was officially declared the developer of a heavy UAV, with a take-off weight of 10 to 20 tons, after a closed tender floated by the Ministry of Defence.

In October 2012, the companies Sukhoi and MiG (both design bureaus being part of the United Aircraft Corporation, led then by Sukhoi’s Mikhail Pogosyan) signed a cooperation agreement for the development of UAVs. Thus, the MiG will be taking part in this project, the tender for which was earlier won by Sukhoi.

According to reports, the results of the collaboration may be ready by 2018.

Earlier, Pogosyan had announced that the future UAV would be using systems and solutions common to the fifth-generation fighter jet – the T-50.

The Ministry of Defence had allocated 5 billion rubles for the development of Russian UAVs but, by 2010, there were no tangible results.

Then, to assist the domestic defence industry, Russia purchased Israeli UAVs, the IAI Searcher Mk II and IAI Bird Eye 400, made in Russia from assembly kits called Forpost (Outpost) and Zastava (Frontier Post), respectively.

The Transas Company (St. Petersburg) and Sokol Design Bureau (Kazan) have been involved in the creation of long-endurance drones since 2011. Their work is continuing. Earlier this year, it became apparent that a prototype-demonstration UAV – the Altius-M (Altair) - would be test flown before the end of 2015.

The “Russian equivalent of the Predator” – the Dozor-600, which, according to combat performance characteristics, is similar to the American prototype, but since this data was unproven, the unit remains at an experimental stage.

Currently, in addition to the Israeli aircraft, the Russian Defence Ministry uses short-range UAVs – the Orlan-10 and the portable Grusha (Pear). Recent reports suggest that Russian paratroopers have been training with the portable UAV – the Iskatel (Seeker). There has, however, been no confirmation that these have entered service with the armed forces.

First published in Russian in Mir robotov.
 
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Housecarl

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http://theaviationist.com/2015/04/16/neuron-operates-from-deci/

nEUROn European Stealth combat drone has started operational tests in Italy
Apr 16 2015 - 1 Comment

Neuron-Deci.jpg

http://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Neuron-Deci.jpg

By David Cenciotti
nEUROn stealth UCAV has started testing its advanced sensors in Italy.

The first example of the nEUROn UCAV (Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle), the full-scale technology demonstrator developed by France, Italy, Sweden, Spain, Switzerland and Greece, has started a new testing phase in Sardinia.

After its roll out at Istres airbase in France, on Jan. 20, 2012, following five years of design, development, and static testing, the stealth combat drone (with a loosely resemblance to the Northrop Grumman X-47B) embarked on a three-year test campaign aimed at exploring the whole flight envelope of the UCAV.

According to Dassault, the prime contractor of the European project, the first phase of tests in France included the opening of the weapons bay and evaluation of the EO (Electro Optical) sensor and datalink.

The second phase of testing focused on the assessment of the IR (Infra Red) and EM (Electromagnetic) signature of the aircraft in full stealth configuration, and was successfully completed at Istres in February 2015. Subsequently, the UCAV technology demonstrator was disassembled and moved, as planned, to Decimomannu airbase, in Sardinia, Italy, where it will undergo operational testing in the Perdasdefogu range, before moving to Visdel, Sweden, for weapons trials.

The photos in this article were taken at Decimomannu airbase by photographers Giampaolo Mallei and Roberto Zanda as the aircraft recovered from one of its first sorties in Italy.
 

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http://www.voanews.com/content/massive-economic-plan-at-center-of-china-pakistan-visit/2725938.html

Massive Economic Plan at Center of China-Pakistan Visit

VOA News
April 19, 2015 3:11 PM

Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to launch $46 billion in infrastructure projects when he begins a two day visit to Pakistan on Monday.

Xi's trip is expected to focus on the Pakistan-China Economic Corridor, a planned network of roads, railways and energy projects to link China with Pakistan's port of Gwadar. The project, when completed, would give Beijing quicker access to markets in central Asia and a shortcut for importing oil from the Middle East.

A U.S. State Department official has said the U.S. supports the economic corridor plan, saying it is aligned with a shared vision of regional economic connectivity.

A spokesman for Pakistan’s government has said the visit will mark the transformation of relations from a global strategic relationship to a new type of economic relationship. But the security side of the relationship is also expected to deepen.

The two sides may sign a deal for Pakistan to buy eight submarines from China.
 

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http://english.cntv.cn/2015/04/20/VIDE1429475998104595.shtml

Xi hopes to push for the construction of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

CCTV.com
04-20-2015 04:42 BJT

Full coverage: Xi Visits Pakistan, Attends Meetings in Indonesia

Chinese President Xi Jinping says that he hopes to push for substantial progress on the construction of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor during his first visit to Pakistan as Chinese president on Monday and Tuesday.

In a signed article published in Pakistan media, President Xi says the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is at the intersection of the Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. It's also an important part of the "One-Belt, One-Road" initiative.

The two countries should focus on the construction of the Corridor, and use Pakistan's Gwadar Port, alongside cooperation in energy, infrastructure and industry, as pillars that will benefit the Pakistani economy and closer economic ties between the two countries.

President Xi says China pursues peace, development and win-win cooperation. He says that proposals on the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, are to improve connectivity with countries along the route, adding that China is willing to work with South Asian countries to boost regional development.
 

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http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/reimagining-the-triangle/

Reimagining the triangle

Written by C Raja Mohan | Published on:April 20, 2015 1:25 am
Comments 5

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Pakistan this week presents a paradox. He is likely to unveil massive plans for the expansion of economic and strategic partnership between the two countries during the visit, as well as highlight the emerging vulnerabilities of a relationship that has long been celebrated as “higher than the Himalayas, deeper than the Indian Ocean and sweeter than honey”. Xi’s travel to Islamabad, coming three weeks before Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to China, raises interesting questions about New Delhi’s changing approach towards Beijing.

During his two-day trip to Pakistan, Xi is expected to launch infrastructure projects worth more than $40 billion.

any of these are part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, considered one of the cornerstones of Xi’s ambitious “one belt, one road” initiative aimed at transforming China’s ties with its neighbouring regions. The “belt” refers to the overland industrial and transport corridors that will link China to the Eurasian landmass. The “road” is short form for the maritime silk road that will connect China’s industrial heartland in the Pacific to the resource-rich Indian Ocean.

Beyond the economic, the leaders of the two countries could close a deal on the sale of eight submarines to the Pakistan navy. For its part, Islamabad is expected to hand over the Gwadar port on a 40-year lease to China. The port is likely to host Chinese facilities to service the ships and submarines of the PLA Navy operating in the Indian Ocean.

But there is a downside to the story as well. It has not been easy to arrange Xi’s visit to Pakistan. When Xi came to India in September last year, he was to have travelled to Pakistan too. But the trip was cancelled amidst political turmoil in Islamabad at that time. After US President Barack Obama’s presence at India’s Republic Day celebrations in January, Pakistan was eager to have Xi grace its national day parade on March 23. Xi did not show up.

It is reported that security considerations have weighed heavily on China’s mind in preparing for Xi’s visit to Pakistan and in its reluctance to formally announce the dates of the visit. That in turn leads to a range of new problems that have begun to cast a shadow on the all-weather partnership between China and Pakistan.

At one end is the simple question of security for Chinese personnel working on a variety of development projects in Pakistan. Over the last few years, Beijing has mounted relentless pressure on improving the security of its citizens who have become targets for the militant groups in Pakistan. Islamabad has reportedly agreed to set up a special security force of nearly 12,000 people to protect Chinese workers and projects.

Even more important for China is the problem that we in India call cross-border terrorism. The tribal areas in Pakistan’s western borderlands with Afghanistan

have become a sanctuary for terror groups that mount attacks in Xinjiang, China’s restive Muslim-majority province that borders the subcontinent. Security officials in Xinjiang and Beijing are no longer confident that the Pakistan army can take care of China’s concerns on terrorism. As the US withdraws from Afghanistan, Beijing worries that there could be more turbulence in Pakistan, which could worsen China’s internal security challenges.

China is no longer viewing the Af-Pak region through the eyes of the Pakistan army. Beijing has begun to make its own assessments of the region and over the last year, it has signalled an interest in promoting peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan. It might be too early to affirm that China and Pakistan are at odds in Afghanistan, but small cracks are appearing in the once-solid regional partnership between the two. Might that open up an opportunity for India?

Until now, Delhi had assumed that their shared hostility towards India meant that the alliance between Beijing and Rawalpindi was immutable. Although the China-Pakistan alliance has been an enduring feature of our geopolitical landscape for many decades, some change is inevitable as circumstances in the region evolve. For Delhi, the question is about judging the extent of the change and finding ways to transform India’s triangular relationship with Pakistan and China.

If Delhi is bold, it can influence the evolution of that relationship in two ways. For all the grand talk about the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, there are many constraints on a China-led industrial transformation of Pakistan. The experiences in Myanmar and Sri Lanka point to some of the problems associated with China’s silk road initiatives.

Meanwhile, the potential for a sustainable economic partnership between India and China is much greater than that between Islamabad and Beijing. The problem so far has been Delhi’s reluctance.

India is also in a much better position today to counter any new Chinese investments in its military alliance with Pakistan. As India deepens ties with other major powers and takes a more active role in Asia
and the Pacific, Modi is in a position to credibly tell his Chinese interlocutors that the costs of Beijing’s alliance
with Rawalpindi could soon exceed the benefits.

Xi’s visit to Pakistan, then, must spur Modi to imagine a robust and self-confident strategy towards China that opens India to an expansive bilateral and regional economic partnership. Modi must also articulate India’s readiness to cooperate with China on regional security issues ranging from counter-terrorism to Afghanistan and the Indo-Pacific.

If India is the glue that binds the Sino-Pak alliance, as many argue, Delhi should have the capacity to weaken that bond through its own policies. Over the last decade, Delhi has managed to alter the triangular dynamic with Pakistan and America by expanding its partnership with Washington. There might be similar possibilities awaiting Modi in Beijing.

The writer is a distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, Delhi and a contributing editor for ‘The Indian Express’

More From C. Raja Mohan

The great Game Folio
Modi and the middle powers
Chinese Takeaway: Yemen evacuation
 

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http://gazettereview.com/2015/04/mexican-police-killed-civilians/

Report: Mexican Police Killed Civilians

Apr 19, 2015

Federal police massacred 16 civilians in western Mexico back in January, a report said, a totally different version of official accounts that said nine people had died in the crossfire of a shootout.

The investigation by journalist Laura Castellanos, which was published yesterday by the weekly magazine Proceso and the news website Aristegui Noticias, is the latest allegation that hits Mexico’s police force.
Report

The shocking report came a day after the National Security Commission announced that it had received a video from an anonymous person that appears to show “an excessive use of force or abuse of authority by federal police officers” in Apatzingan, Michoacan state.

The National Security Commission did not give out more details on the report but did say that the video was given to the attorney general’s office to start an investigation.

A representative for the commission and the attorney general’s office, which is in charge of supervising the federal police, told AFP that they could not give an input on the report because the investigation is still going.

Different Versions

In the first version, authorities said nine people died from “friendly fire” when former members of a rural militia went up against federal police in Apatzingan. Officials arrested 44 people that day.

This is totally different from Castellanos’ report, which is based on 39 anonymous witness accounts, videos, audio recordings and documents, said the victims never had life threatening weapons and just carried sticks when federal police opened fire in two incidents on January 6.

In the first incident, the report said, officers shot at a large group of people who were demonstrating in front of city hall at 2:30 am, with some police shouting things like “kill them like dogs!”

The second incident came just a few hours after the other one, when officers opened fire on a bunch of vehicles carrying people who were chasing a police convoy. The people were hoping to free the ones arrested, the report said.

Violence

The violence exploded as the authorities planned to get rid of Michoacan’s “rural force,” a group comprised of Checkpointvigilantes who were given power after they rose up against a dangerous cartel in the area.

President Enrique Peña Nieto and his party are already under fire over the kidnapping of 43 students at the hands of a municipal police supported by a cartel. The students were never found, but the authorities and people believe they were killed and their bodies burned. Families and friends of the students have made movements across the nation and have visited many countries to show what is going on in Mexico.

The government is also under fire over an alleged army massacre of gang suspects last year. 28 officials are being investigated and seven low low-ranking soldiers, including a lieutenant, were charged in the case. But there are people saying that high ranked soldiers might have participated in the killings.
Out of Hand

What will the government do? Many are tired of the violence and want the president to step down because he’s just not doing enough, while others keep marching for the students and seeking for answers.
 

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http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/syria/articles/20150419.aspx

Syria: ISIL And Friends Go On The Offensive

April 19, 2015: The civil war, which began in 2011, has left over 220,000 dead so far. Over half the 22 million people of Syria have fled their homes since 2011. Some have returned but most have not. There are nearly four million registered Syrian refugees living outside the country plus at least a million unregistered. About a quarter of those fled in 2014 and the exodus continues. Before this is all over Syria will lose a quarter of its population and if the Assads remain in power most of those refugees will not return. Foreign donors are spending over $8 billion a year to keep these refugees outside Syria alive. Turkey and Lebanon have taken most of the refugees and Turkey is spending nearly $4 billion a year to support their portion (about a third). Even many Assad supporters, living in the parts of the country largely untouched by the war, are fleeing. Most Syrians see no future for their country as long as the fighting continues and there have been no credible efforts to halt the mayhem.

As ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) came to dominate the rebel movement in 2013 this Iraq based organization merged its terror operations in the two countries. This war with ISIL in Iraq and Syria has left over 100,000 dead since early 2014. Some 83 percent of those fatalities were in Syria. The death toll in Syria continues to rise, even as it is declining in Iraq. A growing number of Iraqi officials are optimistic that ISIL will be crushed in Iraq by the end of 2016. It’s happened before (like in 2007-8), but then the Sunni fanatics make yet another comeback. The Syrian government is now less certain that it has the Islamic terrorists on the run. The minority (less than a quarter of the population) willing to support the Assads is worn down and demoralized by four years of violence and despite the billions of dollars in economic and military aid from Russia and Iran the rebels, led by ISIL, are on the offensive again. Iran has also sent thousands of trainers, advisors and “combat volunteers” to Syria. Cash strapped Iran really cannot afford to spend all this money on Syria, especially if this aid is not dramatically turning things around for the Assads. Iran wants to use its presence in Syria to threaten Israel but so far the more important task of keeping the Assad government functioning has prevented any real moves against Israel. Meanwhile Israel has had more success supporting some of the rebels. Israel has quietly supplied the Kurds (mainly in Iraq but now in northern Syria as well) with advisors, intel and equipment. The Kurds have never openly acknowledged the relationship, so as not to offend other supporters who are Moslem and officially in favor of destroying Israel. But ask any Kurd in Syria or Iraq and they will confirm that the Israelis are friends and allies. The Kurds are largely Sunni but few of them got involved with Islamic radicalism and terrorism.

In 2011 the Arab Spring gave most Syrians hope that they could get rid of the decades old Assad dictatorship. Assad rule had crippled the economy and turned the country into a corrupt police state. The resistance attracted many Islamic terror groups and that led to fighting between rebel factions and endless mayhem that has destroyed the economy and killed or injured five percent of the population. There is no end in sight although growing popular resistance to ISIL has so far got a lot more Syrians killed (often in gruesome fashion) and helps keep the Assads in power. Prospects are not good.

ISIL’s use of media to publicize its savagery has brought lots of suicidal and demented recruits to Syria and like-minded Moslems in the rest of the world have declared themselves ISIL franchises. That has resulted in an international opposition to ISIL and that backlash even included a growing number of Moslem pundits and leaders calling for some fundamental changes in Islamic thinking to eliminate these periodic outbreaks of Islamic terrorism. The opinion surveys taken over the past few decades have shown that a substantial minority of Moslems approve of Islamic terrorism on religious grounds and this provides the motivation, manpower and popular support for groups like ISIL. It has been that way for over a thousand years.

Because of all this resistance ISIL is losing ground in Iraq and has apparently shifted its main effort to Syria, where it has a powerful (although temporary) ally in the rival al Nusra terrorists. These two groups (and several smaller ones) are advancing around the two largest cities (Aleppo and Damascus) as well as along the Israeli and Jordanian border. ISIL, not surprisingly, found the Iranian and Western support for the Iraqi military, as well as the much greater popular support for the Iraqi government (and against ISIL) too much. In Iraq ISIL is basically on the defensive, preparing for an army assault on Mosul and Western Iraq. No ISIL leaders are saying it yet, but the more perceptive ones know that ISIL faces defeat in Iraq, Meanwhile the chance of victory in Syria seem much better, even though ISIL will have to fight rivals like al Nusra after the Assad government is crushed. Al Nusra is different in that few of its members are foreigners (or non-Syrians) and that the group is aligned with the more “moderate” al Qaeda. The al Nusra alliance with ISIL is not accepted by all al Nusra factions and in some parts of Syria (particularly around Aleppo) al Nusra and ISIL forces still fight each other (often with suicide bomb attacks against al Nusra leaders, a favorite ISIL tactic). One of these assassinations succeeding can cause a blood feud that will go on for months or longer despite efforts by senior leaders from both sides trying to arrange a settlement.

The ISIL/al Nusra offensive has consisted of over a dozen major attacks this month along the “front” that stretches from the Turkish border near Aleppo, then south along key roads and military bases the Assad forces still hold to the suburbs of Damascus and then the Jordan border. Most of these attacks failed but even so it was a shock to the defenders who had not been hit this hard in over a year. Some attacks succeeded and the Assads fear this could get a lot worse. The Assad government has always held onto its heartland. This is a continuous strip of land from the Jordanian border to Damascus, along the Lebanese border to the Lebanese coast. The army has lost control of the major Jordan crossing and the crossings into Turkey were lost over a year ago. If there is a breach in the middle the Assads would have big problems with holding onto the coast (where most foreign aid and supplies in general come in) and Damascus.

Meanwhile in the northeast the Kurdish militias have pushed ISIL back. Apparently ISIL now considers Syrian Kurdish forces as too tough to take on, in large part because these are the only forces in Syria with coalition air support (using ground controllers). ISIL took a major beating (thousands of casualties) from this combination in Kobane during a five month battle and wants to avoid any more of that in Syria. Not only does fighting Kurds get a lot of ISIL fighters killed, but it discourages the rest. Syrian Air Force air support is much less effective than what the American led coalition provides. Meanwhile the Syrian Air Force continues to make the Assads infamous with constant attacks on pro-rebel civilians. Recently this has included poison gas.

In one of the more publicized victories ISIL forces advanced into the Palestinian town (“refugee camp”) of Yarmouk (south of Damascus) on April 1st. Palestinian rebels (many of them basically Islamic terrorists) have held most of the town since government forces surrounded the place in 2012. In effect Yarmouk has been under siege by the Assads since 2012 and regularly bombed. Most of these armed Palestinian groups were anti-ISIL and the 18,000 Palestinians (12 percent of the pre-2011 population) in the town looked to these armed groups for protection. ISIL encountered no resistance from Assad forces but some of the Palestinian Islamic terror groups in Yarmouk did fight back.

Most of the original inhabitants of Yarmouk have fled since 2012. Enough supplies have been let in so that the remaining Palestinians could barely survive. Despite that at least 200 Palestinians have starved to death in the last year and many more are hungry most of the time. The Palestinians (1.7 percent of the Syrian population) are considered unreliable by the rebels although a large number of them are pro-rebel. While the Assads had been good to the Palestinians over the decades, many of the younger Palestinians in Syria backed the rebels from the beginning and that led to fighting in Palestinian neighborhoods like Yarmouk. In July 2013 the head of the Palestinian Authority (which rules the West Bank Palestinians) declared that Palestinians in Syria to be neutral in the civil war. Many are but most are not. The two different Palestinian groups (Fatah that controls the West Bank and the more radical Hamas that controls Gaza) have their own factions in Yarmouk. Fatah has long been the major player in Yarmouk and many Fatah members support the Assads. Hamas attracts the radicals and anti-Assad types. Unfortunately some pro-Hamas Palestinians in Yarmouk do not support ISIL. Palestinians support for the Assads has been declining since 2011 and now over half favor various rebel factions. The Fatah controlled Palestinian Authority fears that after the Syrian fighting is over, no matter who wins, the Palestinians will be expelled (to Lebanon, the West Bank who whatever). By now most Palestinians (who tend to be Sunni or Christian) have come out in favor of the Syrian rebels. The current ISIL led battle in Yarmouk has not worked out well for Hamas. After Yarmouk was captured by ISIL on the 5th videos began appearing showing Hamas officials being publically executed and in one case the head of a Hamas leader was displayed on a pike. Even among Islamic terrorist groups this is considered disrespectful. Hamas officially opposes ISIL, mainly because its major financial backers (Arab oil states) insist. But many Hamas members support ISIL and some have gone and joined ISIL. Since the 5th Fatah and Hamas leadership has issued conflicting advice to Palestinians in Yarmouk, many of whom are now fleeing the town. Some 14 Palestinian factions have gone and pledged support for the Assad government in the hope that some of the substantial Syrian Army forces in the vicinity would come in and drive ISIL out. Syria will only do that if the Palestinians can demonstrate a lot of pro-Assad support in Yarmouk. That may be difficult, if not impossible, to do. Thus the Assads are inclined to leave the ungrateful Palestinians to deal with ISIL on their own. Many Yarmouk neighborhoods are in ruins and the UN officials who have supervised aid shipments since 2012 know from experience that ISIL rule means less food. ISIL tends to refuse any food that is identified as coming from a non-Moslem source. ISIL would rather its subjects starve than accept aid from infidels (non-Moslems). Because of all the problems ISIL was encountering with the Palestinians it was agreed that ISIL forces would withdraw from Yarmouk and let their al Nusra (which is largely Syrian) ally administer the town. ISIL forces were gone by the 15th and most of the remaining Palestinians were optimistic about working with al Nusra.

Another reason for shifting its main effort back to Syria is the American led coalition providing air support. Since August 2014 this coalition has hit over 5,800 ISIL targets, most of them in Iraq. Moreover many of the Iraq targets were hit with the help of American, Kurdish or Iraqi controllers on the ground. Thus the air attacks in Iraq are much more damaging to ISIL. Moreover more than half the air attacks have been in Iraq and this air support is a major reason why ISIL has lost about a quarter of the Iraqi territory it held in late 2014. Many, if not most, of the coalition air attacks in Syria have been against ISIL administrative, economic and logistical targets in eastern Syria, which ISIL is trying to run as an “Islamic State.” That is not working out so well with growing rebellion among the local tribes and similar problems with foreign volunteers who become disillusioned and try to leave (although a few have joined the local anti-ISIL rebels).

Turkey continues to become more effective at keeping foreign volunteers for ISIL from reaching Syria. More and more of these men (and a few women) are being caught (and arrested) as they enter Syria (via road, rail, ship and airliner). This appears to be stopping about a thousand recruits a month, which is nearly half those trying to reach ISIL via Turkey. Moreover, Turkey is not just turning back suspected ISIL recruits but identifying them, comparing data with the recruits’ country of origin and often sending the detainees back to their homeland for investigation and often prosecution. What makes this work is the fact that nearly half these volunteers are from France and France is very eager to know which of their Moslem citizens are pro-ISIL. The pro-ISIL Internet sites are full of chatter about how dangerous it has become to reach ISIL in Syria. Many countries, both Moslem and Western, remember that many of their problems with Islamic terrorism since the 1980s has featured men who learned how to kill while serving as “holy warriors” in Afghanistan. There is a real fear that veterans of ISIL in Syria and Iraq may pose a similar threat. ............
 

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http://www.americanthinker.com/arti...d_obama_to_kick_over_the_nuclear_balance.html

April 20, 2015
Who authorized Obama to kick over the nuclear balance?
By James Lewis

The whole world now understands President Obama’s caudillo style, his autocratic style of governance. We know about the abuse of the IRS, the Department of Justice and our immigration system. We see his contempt for the constitutional powers of Congress. Yet even the US Supreme Court has ducked any chance to restrain him.

American presidents have a lot more free rein in foreign affairs compared to the domestic side, and here Obama has done his worst. When NATO assaulted Libya in 2011 without provocation, Obama was asked whether Congress shouldn’t have a role under the War Powers Act. He just laughed.

As a result, we are now viewed with suspicion by our allies, and we’re laughed at by our enemies. Obama shows no compassion at all --- especially to Muslims, who have died by the tens and hundreds of thousands in Syria, Libya, Egypt and now Yemen, following actions by this president. Al Qaida is stronger than ever, and ISIS receives direct support from Obama’s “friends” in Turkey and Qatar.

George W. Bush was witch-hunted for years by the media after the Iraq invasion, but no liberal newspaper can be heard complaining about Obama’s reckless interventions in the Middle East. There are no constraints on Obama.

Still his most dangerous move has been to kick over the nuclear balance in the Middle East.

I’ve never met a liberal who understood how the balance of nuclear power kept the Cold War cold for six decades. The same balance of terror kept the peace between India and Pakistan after the 1970s, when both countries exploded nukes. In the Middle East, Israel’s never-used nuclear weapons helped to sustain the forty-year Peace Treaty with Egypt, because both sides knew that Israel would never be the first to use nuclear weapons. Before Obama, the United States also kept things under control in close coordination with our allies.

From Truman to Bush we had allies who understood and supported us to protect themselves. Today they are frantically arming up, because we have destroyed their trust. Obama has made the world more dangerous.

We are no longer the good cop in the Middle East. Iran’s proxies now control nearly all of Lebanon, much of Iraq and Syria, and most recently Yemen. The mullahs have systematically driven a strategic pincer around Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt. Yemen has closed the trap.

Liberals never seem to understand two basic points about nukes.

Rational powers never use nukes aggressively, for fear of being destroyed by a nuclear opponent. After Stalin’s death, the USSR became increasingly rational. China, Britain and France have had nuclear weapons without ever using them. The United States used nuclear weapons only once, against a non-nuclear Japan, to put an end to the Second World War. Since then no rational nation has ever used a nuclear weapon.
Irrational powers are completely different. The Kim dynasty in Pyongyang and the Armageddon priesthood in Tehran can’t be relied on to play it safe. They sound delighted to use nuclear weapons even at mortal risk to themselves. It’s impossible to know if they are lying or not. Nobody knows, including the rogues themselves.

Every single day the mullahs make their school children and Basiji thugs chant Death to Israel! Death to America! The whole purpose of that exercise in fanatical hatred is to scare the world. Like the Kims of North Korea, the mullahs get off on sounding crazy about nukes.

Which is why Obama’s surrender to the mullahs does not mean peace in our time. It could mean the opposite. As Churchill said to Chamberlain, "You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war." In the following year, 1939, the Nazis invaded Poland and Churchill’s prediction came true.

Obama is now openly letting the mullahs threaten genocide against Israel and the Sunni Arabs. Iran is Shi’ite, and the Sunni Arabs are apostates. They deserve death. Israel is also subject to Armageddon. (So are Europe and America, unless we surrender first.)

Neither the Saudis nor the Israelis take the threat lightly, and if necessary they will strike first.

Obama has therefore significantly increased the risk of nuclear war. So much for that old Nobel Peace Prize.

A Sunni-Israel alliance is emerging. The Saudis are allied with Egypt, and Israel is secretly cooperating with them against the Iranian threat.

When the cop on the beat gets drunk, the neighborhood doesn’t suddenly become safer. Instead, the crooks take over, like some Chicago neighborhoods.

Obama’s has promised that Iran can now act like “a regional power,” and the United States won’t intervene. But Iran doesn’t want to be a regional power. Islam is a world-conquering faith, and they want it all.

The Jesuits used to say “give me a boy before he is seven, and we will have him for life.” Obama went to an Indonesian madrassa between age six and ten. Obama knows about jihad.

The mullahs have already used Hezb’allah to infiltrate South America. They have deep tentacles into Argentina. On the other extreme, ISIS was just reported to be running a training camp in Mexico, just 8 miles from the Texas border.

As bad as Obama is domestically, in foreign policy he is downright dangerous. That’s what happens when the Left falls in love with a radical leftist with lifelong anger problems.

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150420/as--philippines-us-china-29f2fa07de.html

US, Philippines start combat drills amid China reclamations

Apr 20, 3:36 AM (ET)
By JIM GOMEZ

(AP) A Filipino activist holds a slogan during a rally in front of the U.S. embassy in...
Full Image

MANILA, Philippines (AP) — More than 11,500 American and Filipino military personnel launched one of their largest annual combat readiness exercises Monday amid growing alarm over massive land reclamations by China in disputed South China Sea territories.

Philippine military officials said the "Balikatan," or shoulder-to-shoulder, maneuvers, which involve more than 90 aircraft and ships, were not directed at China. But the venue of some of the war games in waters facing the disputed region and a focus on territorial defense appear to link the exercises to the long-simmering conflict.

Shortly before overseeing the start of the military exercises, Philippine military chief Gen. Gregorio Pio Catapang Jr. held a separate news conference to release surveillance photos showing Chinese reclamations in eight previously submerged reefs in the disputed Spratly Islands, saying Beijing's actions increase the risk of an accidental confrontation.

"We have compelling reasons to raise our voice to tell the whole world the adverse effects of China's aggressiveness that has created tensions not only among the countries who have overlapping claims in the area," Catapang said.

(AP) Armed Forces of the Philippines Chief of Staff Gen. Gregorio Pio Catapang gestures...
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Once completed, the artificial islands could be transformed into offshore military bases with airstrips and maritime patrol hubs that could threaten the freedom of navigation in that section of the South China Sea, with busy oil and commercial cargo lanes, he said.

Catapang said some of the reclamation projects were several kilometers (miles) from a Philippine-occupied island and a reef, raising the possibility that Chinese military patrols could cut off Manila's access, along with that of Filipino fishermen, to those areas.

Philippine government agencies were meeting to determine how to respond to the situation, Catapang said, adding the country wants a peaceful resolution based on international laws.

Chinese officials have defended the land reclamations by saying it is Beijing's territory, adding the reclamations were for public service use and to support fishermen.

But the Philippine military has said the massive scale of the reclamations and the emergence of runway-like facilities raise the possibility they could be for military use to reinforce China's extensive territorial claims.

The chain of Spratly islands, reefs and atolls where most of the Chinese land reclamations have been detected, has long been contested by China, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei. Aside from possible oil and natural gas resources, the vast region also straddles busy sea lanes and teems with rich fishing grounds.
 

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http://southasiaanalysis.org/node/1759

Are Islamic Extremists Poised to Swallow Bangladesh?

Paper No. 5916
Dated 16-Apr-2015
By Bhaskar Roy

The assassination of two liberal bloggers in quick succession in February and March raises some very disturbing questions.

First was that of Avijit Roy, a Bangladeshi-American, who came to attend the “21st February” book fair where a couple of his books were on sale. Machete wielding assailants killed him while his wife Rafida Bonna was injured. Policemen watching the incident simply walked away, ignoring Rafida’s pleas for help.

Avijit, a Hindu and his wife Rafida, believed in liberal humanity. Avijit’s blogs attacked religious extremism which is prohibited in Bangladesh’s constitution. That infuriated the Islamists who promised to get him. And get him they did, with some assistance from law enforcers.

Two of the three assailants of 27 year old blogger Washiqur Rahman who were apprehended by the police were both Madrassa students. When questioned by the police both confessed that they had no idea what a blog was, nor had they read Rahman’s writings. They were simply acting on the orders of another person who told them that killing Rahman was a religious duty.

Another case of hacking to death of blogger Ahmed Rajib Haider in 2013 remains unsolved.

What was the crime of these young men? They did not break any laws of the country. They were opposing a trend, which appears to have become a force, to convert Bangladesh’s Sufi oriented Islam to the obscurantist Wahabi Islam which is regressive, anti-inclusive and antediluvian.

It is extremely worrisome that the two apprehended youths who hacked to death Washiqur Rahman had no idea why they were ordered to kill him. They were brainwashed to carry out orders of a senior to do their “religious duty”.

What are these religious schools teaching the impressionable young? What contributions can they bring to the society when they are grown up? From where would their own livelihood come? From the power behind these Madrassas, of course.

But their sources of funding is not eternal. These young men are being conditioned not to think, not question, but just obey orders. These orders, they are reared to believe are not of man but that of God, Allah. And they will all go to heaven and will be gifted with 72 houris.

If there was a real blasphemy of Islam then this is it! Islam is a religion of peace and it has room for all. The biggest problem is that this is not only against non-Muslims, but against Muslims who know the religion well but choose to stand up against those Muslims who are trying to misinterpret Islam to pursue their political ends. The leaders of this movement want to create a caliphate in Bangladesh which they will rule with murderous sinful acts. They would rule the nation in comfort while their foot soldiers, like those who hacked these bloggers will remain where they are, or worse.

The non-action by the policemen in the Avijit Roy case is not only worrisome, but downright dangerous. Were they influenced by the terrorists? The terrorist religious group Ansurullah Bangladesh is supposed to be behind the killing of Roy and Rahman. But this is not the only religious terrorist organization now active in Bangladesh. There are many, and all of them appear to be franchises of one idea, and there is one powerful organization legally active which appears to be the mastermind.

Before coming to other related issues, the insidious activities of the Hizb-ut-Tehrir (HUT) need special attention. Founded in Jerusalem in 1953, it has become a trans- national extremist organization with its registered office in the UK. Its aim is to establish Khilafat run by Islamic Sharia law. It took roots in Bangladesh in 2000, came to prominence in 2001 after the US twin-towers bombing, but was banned in 2009 for anti-state activities. The Bangladesh army revealed in January 2012, a coup was planned by a group of HUT influenced officers, but it failed. Now HUT has units at all divisional headquarters and reportedly has a membership of 10,000! It is reported the organization attempted a coup through some sympathetic army officers in 2009.

In a public release on 28 February 2005, the organization appealed to military officers to immediately remove Prime Minister Sk. Hasina and the current ruling system. It referred to the Bangladesh army as a Muslim army sent an appeal to the media not to obey the government’s directive not to give prominence to HUT, and work for the cause of Khilafat.

The HUT has targeted the urban youth, the urban middle class, members of the armed forces and other security forces including the police.

Following the banning of Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), Jamatul Mujahidin Bangladesh (JMB), Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJ), Shahadat-e-Al Hikma (SAK), HUT was also declared a proscribed organization. Other banned organizations include Hizb-ut Tawhid, Islami Samaj, Ulema Anjuman al Baiyinaat, Islamic Democratic Party, Tawhid Trust, Tamir ud-Deen, and Allahar Dal.

According to Bangladeshi sources the HUT is the richest banned terrorist organization in the country, but their sources of funding are not known. Money is absolutely important to run such organizations because their cadres and foot soldiers have to be paid. The private Madrassas a.k.a Quami Madrassas provide readymade foot soldiers for these organizations.

Blocking terrorist funding is possible to some extent only and that is generally limited to bank transfers. Some banks like the Islami Bank are suspected of being complicit in these transfers. Substantial money comes in from workers returning from countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. There are approximately 10 million Bangladeshis working in the Gulf and West Asia. They return indoctrinated in Deobandi Islam and with the belief that they must contribute part of their earning to the cause of jihad against infidels, the surest path to heaven. This kind of funding is very difficult to track and stop.

According to reports emanating from Bangladesh, based on intelligence files, the HUT has tied up with the JMB and others. The JMB in turn is in touch with the Al Qaeda through its strategist. Both the strategist and the JMB explosive expert, who were on death row, were rescued by their cadres when being transported from one jail to another. They were very high value prisoners and leads to the question whether the security personnel escorting may have been in collusion with the terrorists. If this is true, the terrorists have made deep incursion inside the security establishment of the nation.

Another development that must be mentioned in the above connection is how much the conservative aspect of religion has penetrated the families of armed forces’ officers. A majority of lady wives have reportedly taken to wearing the burkha for official events. In the lower ranks the burkha appears to have become mandatory.

This is an eerie development. On the one hand the government is trying to bring women out of purdah, give them education and make them economically independent. The Bangladesh ready made garment industry, the second biggest garment exporter in the world after China, is women dependent. If the Mullahs should force them to go back into purdah, not only will the industry collapse, but it will severely hurt the economy and the societal fabric of the nation.

At the same time, the jihadis are trying to use women in bomb making activities and training them as human bombers. The explosions in a JMB cell in Burdwan district, West Bengal, is an example, where two women were helping in bomb making.

Circumstantial evidence suggest that the HUT and the JMB may be working in coordination. Both are engaged in toppling the government. Both see India as an enemy supporting the Awami League and the west as propping up Khaleda Zia and the BNP. The JMB was at one time promoted and protected by powerful BNP leaders like Minister of State for Home, Luftozzaman Babar, deputy Minister Pintu and others. HUJI, which was involved in the assassination attempt of Sk. Hasina in 2004, at the direction of some BNP leaders, and other banned extra-religious terrorist organizations are working as ancillaries to the terror leadership.

It has now come to light that the JMB has been expanding in the border areas of India. An accident in a bomb making facility in Burdwan district of West Bengal brought in central Indian intelligence agencies for investigation and subsequent arrests.

What is confounding is the fact that 60 JMB sleeper cells were discovered in West Bengal and another 20 in Tripura and Assam. The outfit is also expanding in Jharkand. Yet, with 60 modules discovered and there may be more, the West Bengal state intelligence and police seemed to have had no inkling of these developments.

Unfortunately, West Bengal Chief Minister Ms. Mamata Banerjee was initially in a denial mode, nor has she condemned these developments since. She is obviously banking on Muslim votes for her electoral politics, and is under the mistaken belief that obscurantist Maulvis and Mullahs will garner Muslim votes for her.

With such policies of the state government some Maulvis have been encouraged to experiment with imposition of Sharia law in small ways. Recently, a women’s exhibition football game in Murshidabad district had to be cancelled due to objection from local religious leaders that the clothes the players wore was against Sharia. The state administration took no action, despite the fact that local Muslims were involved in organizing the event. Even in Kolkata, progressive Madrassa teachers are being physically assaulted and intimidated by religious extremists.

The big picture of the growing threat to India’s security is being missed. Available information suggests that ISIS is reportedly in partnership with the Al Qaeda. Some Bangladeshi youth have joined the ISIS, and their organization is spreading its influence among some Indian Muslim youth.

The ISIS has declared Afghanistan and parts of Pakistan as Khorasan. Sections of the Pakistani Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) have pledged alliance with the ISIS. With the JMB in contact with Al Qaeda, the prospect of the ISIS entering Bangladesh is a real possibility. Another group, the Rohingyas who are Muslims, are vulnerable to the approaches of the Al Qaeda and Taliban. The Rohingyas are a stateless people with presence both in Bangladesh and Myanmar. They are a persecuted lot.

Around 2003-04, the Pakistani Embassy in Bangladesh was alleged to have been in touch with the Rohingya Solidarity Organization (RSO) a Rohingya extremist group.

More recently this year, a Pakistani ISI agent working in the Pakistani High Commission in Dhaka under the cover of consular attaché, was caught red handed giving money to JMB and Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) activists for subversive activities including in India. The head of the Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) in Dhaka was also expelled by the Bangladesh government for “illegal” activities, an euphemism for working against the state of Bangladesh. The Bangladesh government has, however, underplayed both these incidents.

Pakistan’s army and the ISI have never forgiven Bangladesh for breaking away from Pakistan. Late Sk. Mujibur Rahman was seen by Islamabad as the main leader of the liberation movement. Sk. Hasina, as the daughter of Sk. Mujibur Rahman, is seen as the next enemy. Deep hatred has been reserved for India for helping Bangladeshis in their liberation war. The BNP has colluded in that plan, giving Indian separatists open sanctuaries in Bangladesh and using Bangladesh territory to launch terrorist attacks in India.

As Pakistan has learnt, the BNP should also learn, that such terrorists are nobody’s friends. Snakes reared to bite others will ultimately bite the owners.

The terrorist forces are also now turning against the BNP, and will certainly not accept a woman leader who is also known to be personally liberal.

The BNP has willfully allowed the JEI to ride on its shoulders. Khaleda Zia relies on the street power of the JEI. Nobody should take comfort from the fact that the JEI has only 4% of the votes. In Pakistan, the fighting parties have even fewer votes. But that has not prevented them from wielding power much beyond their vote share and helped militancy to grow. This is because the deep state has used them as foreign policy assets against India and in Afghanistan.

The BNP made similar mistakes and continues to do so. This is a grave mistake, and can boomerang against itself.

The Awami League is also making a mistake by prohibiting the media from reporting on HUT. The media needs to expose these organizations. What the Daily Star did was expose the threat posed by HUT. In the caption to the photograph of HUT poster, the daily attacked HUT. The intent of the daily was very clear.

In contrast to the media clampdown HUT has taken to the internet for propaganda of their views, persuading people to join them. And it appears they have scored some success.

One has only to sit back and imagine the looming threat to Bangladesh and its neighbourhood. Playing ostrich is the wrong approach.

It is time the BNP shed the JEI for its own survival. The major parties must put aside their political differences for a separate tussle, and join forces to fight this imminent threat that may consume all.

(The writer is a New Delhi based strategic analyst. He can be reached at e-mail grouchohart@yahoo.com)
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Housecarl

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http://southasiaanalysis.org/node/1760

Next phase of the U.S. Pivot to Asia: Responses from China

Paper No. 5917
Dated 19-Apr-2015
Guest Column by Prof. B. R. Deepak

Just before setting off to his visit to Japan, South Korea and the US Pacific Command in Honolulu between April 8 and 11, the US Secretary of Defence, Ashton Carter while delivering a speech at Arizona State University’s McCain Institute on April 6, 2015 said that he was ‘personally committed to overseeing the next phase of the rebalance, which will deepen and diversify the US engagement in the region.’

Carter was perhaps reassuring the US allies in Asia-Pacific that even though the US was bogged down in conflicts in the Middle East and Af-Pak region, it was serious about its pivot to Asia. Secondly, if the first phase of the pivot was overshadowed by China’s grandiose initiatives such as Asia Infrastructural Development Bank (AIDB), ‘Belt and Road initiative, Silk Road Fund, and the Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP), the second phase will see the US taking its leadership role in the Asia Pacific region. Thirdly, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and its companion agreement Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) floated by the US, that has remained non starter may be realised sooner than the later. It was in this context that Carter compared the TPP as a ‘new aircraft carrier’ and one of the most important parts of Obama administration’s effort to shift more attention to Asia-Pacific. He urged the Congress to give President Barack Obama authority to complete the agreement that holds ‘enormous promise’ for economic development and job creation. Carter declared Asia-Pacific as ‘defining region’ for the future of the US.

According to Carter there are three cornerstones of the next phase of the US pivot to Asia: advanced high-tech weapons; trilateral alliance between the US, Japan and South Korea; and the TPP. He said that most advanced weapons would be deployed in the Asia-Pacific, and 60% of the US naval fleet (six aircraft careers) would be deployed in the region. China finds it interesting that when the idea of pivot to Asia was floated in 2011, the US has pointed out that 60% of its fleet would be stationed in the Pacific, however, after 2013 the US have included the Indian Ocean as a part of the concept.

It is in this context that analysts in China are apprehensive about India becoming a ‘pawn’ on the ‘pivot to Asia’ chessboard, for India has been issuing joint statements since last year on Asia-Pacific with the US. However, many including Prof. Wang Wei of Central Nationality University believe that India may not be willing to play the second fiddle to the US. On the contrary, Chinese experts are of the view that India’s ‘Act East Policy’ may be on the path of ‘collision and friction’ as India expands its influence from South Asia to Southeast Asia.

As far as the triangular alliance between the US, Japan and South Korea is concerned, China sees an increased level of defence cooperation between the three, and finds it in sync with Shinzo Abe’s efforts to expand the role of the Self-Defence Forces (SDFs) by loosening constitutional constraints, especially the right to collective self-defence. Japanese SDFs are likely to provide their logistic support for the US forces in a case where Japan’s national security is threatened, and will cooperate under various circumstances including in a case of collective self-defence. The alliance is also considering ballistic missile defence, to this end the US is trying to convince South Korea to deploy 'Sade System'.

The third cornerstone, the TPP, a symbol of economic and trade cooperation in the region, has been pronounced as one of the most important parts of the Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy, ‘as important as an aircraft carrier.’ It is interesting to note that Japan and South Korea subsequently has been added to TPP negotiations while China has been kept out, albeit China has signalled that it may not be averse to join the agreement. However, it also believes that the TPP while serving the US pivot to Asia is also aimed to establish a new international economic order in Asia-Pacific under the auspices of the United States and contain China's growing influence in the regional and global economy. China also believes that the negotiations may be stalled further as the US-Japan differences on trade and tariffs are serious.

The Ashton pronouncements have been regarded by China as ‘old wine in new bottle’; the wordings ranging from Hilary Clinton’s 2009 rhetoric of ‘Pivot to Asia-Pacific’ to Carter’s ‘new stage of the pivot’ according to China is a pointer to the fact the US has never been out of the ‘Cold War mentality’ and that it simply wants to consolidate its dominance in the Asia-Pacific, and maintain its hegemony in the region while containing China.

China believes that the reasons behind ‘the new stage’ of the pivot arise from ‘a sense of urgency’ from Obama administration, as it remains one of the flagships of US’s foreign policy but not taking a definite shape. It also reveals that there is ‘a sense of frustration’ as the ‘pivot’ has failed to contain China's rise and influence in the region. Not only this, the US has also failed to reassure its allies in the region. Its old ally the Philippines has even announced its withdrawal from the TPP negotiations. The declining leadership role of the US is not only felt by its allies but by the US itself. The third reason the Chinese analysts provide is ‘a sense of powerlessness’ in the minds of the US authorities, and that is why it is strengthening its security alliance with Japan, South Korea and other allies, as well as trying to coax other powers in the regions to be part of its strategy.

Analysts in China are of the view that contrary to be able to bring security and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific, the ‘rebalancing’ will bring disaster to the region. They are questioning whether the TPP which has been compared to an aircraft career is open to various countries on equal footing like the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative or not? Is it inclusive or is there any hidden agenda? If it is not inclusive and not a win-win proposition, how can it bring peace and prosperity and provide security to the region? If it is exclusive, and the players have to play by the US rules, isn’t that the thinking of a hegemon?

It is in this context that China believes that Asian affairs should be left to the Asian countries to be resolved. These could be only resolved on the basis of mutual respect, consensus and a win-win scenario. Asia does not require ‘foreign monks’ to recite the ‘scriptures’! China’s strategy according to Prof. Wang Wei should be win-win cooperation with the US on one hand and consolidating and strengthening of China’s relations with Asia-Pacific countries on the other. She believes that Asia-Pacific is big enough to accommodate both China and the US, however, China need to be cautious as the US harbour evil intention towards China.

(B R Deepak is Professor of Chinese and China Studies at the Centre of Chinese and Southeast Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University New Delhi. The views are solely his own.)
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Housecarl

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http://www.spiegel.de/international...cture-of-islamist-terror-group-a-1029274.html

SPIEGEL ONLINE
04/18/2015 01:17 PM
The Terror Strategist
Secret Files Reveal the Structure of Islamic State

By Christoph Reuter

An Iraqi officer planned Islamic State's takeover in Syria and SPIEGEL has been given exclusive access to his papers. They portray an organization that, while seemingly driven by religious fanaticism, is actually coldly calculating.

Aloof. Polite. Cajoling. Extremely attentive. Restrained. Dishonest. Inscrutable. Malicious. The rebels from northern Syria, remembering encounters with him months later, recall completely different facets of the man. But they agree on one thing: "We never knew exactly who we were sitting across from."

In fact, not even those who shot and killed him after a brief firefight in the town of Tal Rifaat on a January morning in 2014 knew the true identity of the tall man in his late fifties. They were unaware that they had killed the strategic head of the group calling itself "Islamic State" (IS). The fact that this could have happened at all was the result of a rare but fatal miscalculation by the brilliant planner. The local rebels placed the body into a refrigerator, in which they intended to bury him. Only later, when they realized how important the man was, did they lift his body out again.

Samir Abd Muhammad al-Khlifawi was the real name of the Iraqi, whose bony features were softened by a white beard. But no one knew him by that name. Even his best-known pseudonym, Haji Bakr, wasn't widely known. But that was precisely part of the plan. The former colonel in the intelligence service of Saddam Hussein's air defense force had been secretly pulling the strings at IS for years. Former members of the group had repeatedly mentioned him as one of its leading figures. Still, it was never clear what exactly his role was.

But when the architect of the Islamic State died, he left something behind that he had intended to keep strictly confidential: the blueprint for this state. It is a folder full of handwritten organizational charts, lists and schedules, which describe how a country can be gradually subjugated. SPIEGEL has gained exclusive access to the 31 pages, some consisting of several pages pasted together. They reveal a multilayered composition and directives for action, some already tested and others newly devised for the anarchical situation in Syria's rebel-held territories. In a sense, the documents are the source code of the most successful terrorist army in recent history.

Until now, much of the information about IS has come from fighters who had defected and data sets from the IS internal administration seized in Baghdad. But none of this offered an explanation for the group's meteoric rise to prominence, before air strikes in the late summer of 2014 put a stop to its triumphal march.

For the first time, the Haji Bakr documents now make it possible to reach conclusions on how the IS leadership is organized and what role former officials in the government of ex-dictator Saddam Hussein play in it. Above all, however, they show how the takeover in northern Syria was planned, making the group's later advances into Iraq possible in the first place. In addition, months of research undertaken by SPIEGEL in Syria, as well as other newly discovered records, exclusive to SPIEGEL, show that Haji Bakr's instructions were carried out meticulously.

Bakr's documents were long hidden in a tiny addition to a house in embattled northern Syria. Reports of their existence were first made by an eyewitness who had seen them in Haji Bakr's house shortly after his death. In April 2014, a single page from the file was smuggled to Turkey, where SPIEGEL was able to examine it for the first time. It only became possible to reach Tal Rifaat to evaluate the entire set of handwritten papers in November 2014.

"Our greatest concern was that these plans could fall into the wrong hands and would never have become known," said the man who has been storing Haji Bakr's notes after pulling them out from under a tall stack of boxes and blankets. The man, fearing the IS death squads, wishes to remain anonymous.

The Master Plan

The story of this collection of documents begins at a time when few had yet heard of the "Islamic State." When Iraqi national Haji Bakr traveled to Syria as part of a tiny advance party in late 2012, he had a seemingly absurd plan: IS would capture as much territory as possible in Syria. Then, using Syria as a beachhead, it would invade Iraq.

Bakr took up residence in an inconspicuous house in Tal Rifaat, north of Aleppo. The town was a good choice. In the 1980s, many of its residents had gone to work in the Gulf nations, especially Saudi Arabia. When they returned, some brought along radical convictions and contacts. In 2013, Tal Rifaat would become IS' stronghold in Aleppo Province, with hundreds of fighters stationed there.

It was there that the "Lord of the Shadows," as some called him, sketched out the structure of the Islamic State, all the way down to the local level, compiled lists relating to the gradual infiltration of villages and determined who would oversee whom. Using a ballpoint pen, he drew the chains of command in the security apparatus on stationery. Though presumably a coincidence, the stationery was from the Syrian Defense Ministry and bore the letterhead of the department in charge of accommodations and furniture.

What Bakr put on paper, page by page, with carefully outlined boxes for individual responsibilities, was nothing less than a blueprint for a takeover. It was not a manifesto of faith, but a technically precise plan for an "Islamic Intelligence State" -- a caliphate run by an organization that resembled East Germany's notorious Stasi domestic intelligence agency.

This blueprint was implemented with astonishing accuracy in the ensuing months. The plan would always begin with the same detail: The group recruited followers under the pretense of opening a Dawah office, an Islamic missionary center. Of those who came to listen to lectures and attend courses on Islamic life, one or two men were selected and instructed to spy on their village and obtain a wide range of information. To that end, Haji Bakr compiled lists such as the following:

List the powerful families.
Name the powerful individuals in these families.
Find out their sources of income.
Name names and the sizes of (rebel) brigades in the village.
Find out the names of their leaders, who controls the brigades and their political orientation.
Find out their illegal activities (according to Sharia law), which could be used to blackmail them if necessary.

The spies were told to note such details as whether someone was a criminal or a homosexual, or was involved in a secret affair, so as to have ammunition for blackmailing later. "We will appoint the smartest ones as Sharia sheiks," Bakr had noted. "We will train them for a while and then dispatch them." As a postscript, he had added that several "brothers" would be selected in each town to marry the daughters of the most influential families, in order to "ensure penetration of these families without their knowledge."

The spies were to find out as much as possible about the target towns: Who lived there, who was in charge, which families were religious, which Islamic school of religious jurisprudence they belonged to, how many mosques there were, who the imam was, how many wives and children he had and how old they were. Other details included what the imam's sermons were like, whether he was more open to the Sufi, or mystical variant of Islam, whether he sided with the opposition or the regime, and what his position was on jihad. Bakr also wanted answers to questions like: Does the imam earn a salary? If so, who pays it? Who appoints him? Finally: How many people in the village are champions of democracy?

The agents were supposed to function as seismic signal waves, sent out to track down the tiniest cracks, as well as age-old faults within the deep layers of society -- in short, any information that could be used to divide and subjugate the local population. The informants included former intelligence spies, but also regime opponents who had quarreled with one of the rebel groups. Some were also young men and adolescents who needed money or found the work exciting. Most of the men on Bakr's list of informants, such as those from Tal Rifaat, were in their early twenties, but some were as young as 16 or 17.

The plans also include areas like finance, schools, daycare, the media and transportation. But there is a constantly recurring, core theme, which is meticulously addressed in organizational charts and lists of responsibilities and reporting requirements: surveillance, espionage, murder and kidnapping.

For each provincial council, Bakr had planned for an emir, or commander, to be in charge of murders, abductions, snipers, communication and encryption, as well as an emir to supervise the other emirs -- "in case they don't do their jobs well." The nucleus of this godly state would be the demonic clockwork of a cell and commando structure designed to spread fear.

From the very beginning, the plan was to have the intelligence services operate in parallel, even at the provincial level. A general intelligence department reported to the "security emir" for a region, who was in charge of deputy-emirs for individual districts. A head of secret spy cells and an "intelligence service and information manager" for the district reported to each of these deputy-emirs. The spy cells at the local level reported to the district emir's deputy. The goal was to have everyone keeping an eye on everyone else.

Those in charge of training the "Sharia judges in intelligence gathering" also reported to the district emir, while a separate department of "security officers" was assigned to the regional emir.

Sharia, the courts, prescribed piety -- all of this served a single goal: surveillance and control. Even the word that Bakr used for the conversion of true Muslims, takwin, is not a religious but a technical term that translates as "implementation," a prosaic word otherwise used in geology or construction. Still, 1,200 years ago, the word followed a unique path to a brief moment of notoriety. Shiite alchemists used it to describe the creation of artificial life. In his ninth century "Book of Stones," the Persian Jabir Ibn Hayyan wrote -- using a secret script and codes -- about the creation of a homunculus. "The goal is to deceive all, but those who love God." That may also have been to the liking of Islamic State strategists, although the group views Shiites as apostates who shun true Islam. But for Haji Bakr, God and the 1,400-year-old faith in him was but one of many modules at his disposal to arrange as he liked for a higher purpose.

The Beginnings in Iraq

It seemed as if George Orwell had been the model for this spawn of paranoid surveillance. But it was much simpler than that. Bakr was merely modifying what he had learned in the past: Saddam Hussein's omnipresent security apparatus, in which no one, not even generals in the intelligence service, could be certain they weren't being spied on.

Expatriate Iraqi author Kanan Makiya described this "Republic of Fear" in a book as a country in which anyone could simply disappear and in which Saddam could seal his official inauguration in 1979 by exposing a bogus conspiracy.

There is a simple reason why there is no mention in Bakr's writings of prophecies relating to the establishment of an Islamic State allegedly ordained by God: He believed that fanatical religious convictions alone were not enough to achieve victory. But he did believe that the faith of others could be exploited.

In 2010, Bakr and a small group of former Iraqi intelligence officers made Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the emir and later "caliph," the official leader of the Islamic State. They reasoned that Baghdadi, an educated cleric, would give the group a religious face.

Bakr was "a nationalist, not an Islamist," says Iraqi journalist Hisham al-Hashimi, as he recalls the former career officer, who was stationed with Hashimi's cousin at the Habbaniya Air Base. "Colonel Samir," as Hashimi calls him, "was highly intelligent, firm and an excellent logistician." But when Paul Bremer, then head of the US occupational authority in Baghdad, "dissolved the army by decree in May 2003, he was bitter and unemployed."

Thousands of well-trained Sunni officers were robbed of their livelihood with the stroke of a pen. In doing so, America created its most bitter and intelligent enemies. Bakr went underground and met Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Anbar Province in western Iraq. Zarqawi, a Jordanian by birth, had previously run a training camp for international terrorist pilgrims in Afghanistan. Starting in 2003, he gained global notoriety as the mastermind of attacks against the United Nations, US troops and Shiite Muslims. He was even too radical for former Al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden. Zarqawi died in a US air strike in 2006.

Although Iraq's dominant Baath Party was secular, the two systems ultimately shared a conviction that control over the masses should lie in the hands of a small elite that should not be answerable to anyone -- because it ruled in the name of a grand plan, legitimized by either God or the glory of Arab history. The secret of IS' success lies in the combination of opposites, the fanatical beliefs of one group and the strategic calculations of the other.

Bakr gradually became one of the military leaders in Iraq, and he was held from 2006 to 2008 in the US military's Camp Bucca and Abu Ghraib Prison. He survived the waves of arrests and killings by American and Iraqi special units, which threatened the very existence of the IS precursor organization in 2010, Islamic State in Iraq.

For Bakr and a number of former high-ranking officers, this presented an opportunity to seize power in a significantly smaller circle of jihadists. They utilized the time they shared in Camp Bucca to establish a large network of contacts. But the top leaders had already known each other for a long time. Haji Bakr and an additional officer were part of the tiny secret-service unit attached to the anti-aircraft division. Two other IS leaders were from a small community of Sunni Turkmen in the town of Tal Afar. One of them was a high-ranking intelligence officer as well.

In 2010, the idea of trying to defeat Iraqi government forces militarily seemed futile. But a powerful underground organization took shape through acts of terror and protection rackets. When the uprising against the dictatorship of the Assad clan erupted in neighboring Syria, the organization's leaders sensed an opportunity. By late 2012, particularly in the north, the formerly omnipotent government forces had largely been defeated and expelled. Instead, there were now hundreds of local councils and rebel brigades, part of an anarchic mix that no one could keep track of. It was a state of vulnerability that the tightly organized group of ex-officers sought to exploit.

Attempts to explain IS and its rapid rise to power vary depending on who is doing the explaining. Terrorism experts view IS as an al-Qaida offshoot and attribute the absence of spectacular attacks to date to what they view as a lack of organizational capacity. Criminologists see IS as a mafia-like holding company out to maximize profit. Scholars in the humanities point to the apocalyptic statements by the IS media department, its glorification of death and the belief that Islamic State is involved in a holy mission.

But apocalyptic visions alone are not enough to capture cities and take over countries. Terrorists don't establish countries. And a criminal cartel is unlikely to generate enthusiasm among supporters around the world, who are willing to give up their lives to travel to the "Caliphate" and potentially their deaths.

IS has little in common with predecessors like al-Qaida aside from its jihadist label. There is essentially nothing religious in its actions, its strategic planning, its unscrupulous changing of alliances and its precisely implemented propaganda narratives. Faith, even in its most extreme form, is just one of many means to an end. Islamic State's only constant maxim is the expansion of power at any price.

The Implementation of the Plan

The expansion of IS began so inconspicuously that, a year later, many Syrians had to think for a moment about when the jihadists had appeared in their midst. The Dawah offices that were opened in many towns in northern Syria in the spring of 2013 were innocent-looking missionary offices, not unlike the ones that Islamic charities have opened worldwide.

When a Dawah office opened in Raqqa, "all they said was that they were 'brothers,' and they never said a word about the 'Islamic State'," reports a doctor who fled from the city. A Dawah office was also opened in Manbij, a liberal city in Aleppo Province, in the spring of 2013. "I didn't even notice it at first," recalls a young civil rights activist. "Anyone was allowed to open what he wished. We would never have suspected that someone other than the regime could threaten us. It was only when the fighting erupted in January that we learned that Da'ish," the Arab acronym for IS, "had already rented several apartments where it could store weapons and hide its men."

The situation was similar in the towns of al-Bab, Atarib and Azaz. Dawah offices were also opened in neighboring Idlib Province in early 2013, in the towns of Sermada, Atmeh, Kafr Takharim, al-Dana and Salqin. As soon as it had identified enough "students" who could be recruited as spies, IS expanded its presence. In al-Dana, additional buildings were rented, black flags raised and streets blocked off. In towns where there was too much resistance or it was unable to secure enough supporters, IS chose to withdraw temporarily. At the beginning, its modus operandi was to expand without risking open resistance, and abduct or kill "hostile individuals," while denying any involvement in these nefarious activities.

The fighters themselves also remained inconspicuous at first. Bakr and the advance guard had not brought them along from Iraq, which would have made sense. In fact, they had explicitly prohibited their Iraqi fighters from going to Syria. They also chose not to recruit very many Syrians. The IS leaders opted for the most complicated option instead: They decided to gather together all the foreign radicals who had been coming to the region since the summer of 2012. Students from Saudi Arabia, office workers from Tunisia and school dropouts from Europe with no military experience were to form an army with battle-tested Chechens and Uzbeks. It would be located in Syria under Iraqi command.

Already by the end of 2012, military camps had been erected in several places. Initially, no one knew what groups they belonged to. The camps were strictly organized and the men there came from numerous countries -- and didn't speak to journalists. Very few of them were from Iraq. Newcomers received two months of training and were drilled to be unconditionally obedient to the central command. The set-up was inconspicuous and also had another advantage: though necessarily chaotic at the beginning, what emerged were absolutely loyal troops. The foreigners knew nobody outside of their comrades, had no reason to show mercy and could be quickly deployed to many different places. This was in stark contrast to the Syrian rebels, who were mostly focused on defending their hometowns and had to look after their families and help out with the harvest. In fall 2013, IS books listed 2,650 foreign fighters in the Province of Aleppo alone. Tunisians represented a third of the total, followed by Saudi Arabians, Turks, Egyptians and, in smaller numbers, Chechens, Europeans and Indonesians.

Continued....
 

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Later too, the jihadist cadres were hopelessly outnumbered by the Syrian rebels. Although the rebels distrusted the jihadists, they didn't join forces to challenge IS because they didn't want to risk opening up a second front. Islamic State, though, increased its clout with a simple trick: The men always appeared wearing black masks, which not only made them look terrifying, but also meant that no one could know how many of them there actually were. When groups of 200 fighters appeared in five different places one after the other, did it mean that IS had 1,000 people? Or 500? Or just a little more than 200? In addition, spies also ensured that IS leadership was constantly informed of where the population was weak or divided or where there were local conflict, allowing IS to offer itself as a protective power in order to gain a foothold.

The Capture of Raqqa

Raqqa, a once sleepy provincial city on the Euphrates River, was to become the prototype of the complete IS conquest. The operation began subtly, gradually became more brutal and, in the end, IS prevailed over larger opponents without much of a fight. "We were never very political," explained one doctor who had fled Raqqa for Turkey. "We also weren't religious and didn't pray much."

When Raqqa fell to the rebels in March 2013, a city council was rapidly elected. Lawyers, doctors and journalists organized themselves. Women's groups were established. The Free Youth Assembly was founded, as was the movement "For Our Rights" and dozens of other initiatives. Anything seemed possible in Raqqa. But in the view of some who fled the city, it also marked the start of its downfall.

True to Haji Bakr's plan, the phase of infiltration was followed by the elimination of every person who might have been a potential leader or opponent. The first person hit was the head of the city council, who was kidnapped in mid-May 2013 by masked men. The next person to disappear was the brother of a prominent novelist. Two days later, the man who had led the group that painted a revolutionary flag on the city walls vanished.

"We had an idea who kidnapped him," one of his friends explains, "but no one dared any longer to do anything." The system of fear began to take hold. Starting in July, first dozens and then hundreds of people disappeared. Sometimes their bodies were found, but they usually disappeared without a trace. In August, the IS military leadership dispatched several cars driven by suicide bombers to the headquarters of the FSA brigade, the "Grandsons of the Prophet," killing dozens of fighters and leading the rest to flee. The other rebels merely looked on. IS leadership had spun a web of secret deals with the brigades so that each thought it was only the others who might be the targets of IS attacks.

On Oct. 17, 2013, Islamic State called all civic leaders, clerics and lawyers in the city to a meeting. At the time, some thought it might be a gesture of conciliation. Of the 300 people who attended the meeting, only two spoke out against the ongoing takeover, the kidnappings and the murders committed by IS.

One of the two was Muhannad Habayebna, a civil rights activist and journalist well known in the city. He was found five days later tied up and executed with a gunshot wound to his head. Friends received an anonymous email with a photo of his body. The message included only one sentence: "Are you sad about your friend now?" Within hours around 20 leading members of the opposition fled to Turkey. The revolution in Raqqa had come to an end.

A short time later, the 14 chiefs of the largest clans gave an oath of allegiance to Emir Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. There's even a film of the ceremony. They were sheiks with the same clans that had sworn their steadfast loyalty to Syrian President Bashar Assad only two years earlier.

The Death of Haji Bakr

Until the end of 2013, everything was going according to Islamic State's plan -- or at least according to the plan of Haji Bakr. The caliphate was expanding village by village without being confronted by unified resistance from Syrian rebels. Indeed, the rebels seemed paralyzed in the face of IS' sinister power.

But when IS henchmen brutally tortured a well-liked rebel leader and doctor to death in December 2013, something unexpected happened. Across the country, Syrian brigades -- both secular and parts of the radical Nusra Front -- joined together to do battle with Islamic State. By attacking IS everywhere at the same time, they were able to rob the Islamists of their tactical advantage -- that of being able to rapidly move units to where they were most urgently needed.

Within weeks, IS was pushed out of large regions of northern Syria. Even Raqqa, the Islamic State capital, had almost fallen by the time 1,300 IS fighters arrived from Iraq. But they didn't simply march into battle. Rather, they employed a trickier approach, recalls the doctor who fled. "In Raqqa, there were so many brigades on the move that nobody knew who exactly the others were. Suddenly, a group in rebel dress began to shoot at the other rebels. They all simply fled."

A small, simple masquerade had helped IS fighters to victory: Just change out of black clothes into jeans and vests. They did the same thing in the border town of Jarablus. On several occasions, rebels in other locations took drivers from IS suicide vehicles into custody. The drivers asked in surprise: "You are Sunnis too? Our emir told me you were infidels from Assad's army."

Once complete, the picture begins to look absurd: God's self-proclaimed enforcers on Earth head out to conquer a future worldly empire, but with what? With ninja outfits, cheap tricks and espionage cells camouflaged as missionary offices. But it worked. IS held on to Raqqa and was able to reconquer some of its lost territories. But it came too late for the great planner Haji Bakr.

Haji Bakr stayed behind in the small city of Tal Rifaat, where IS had long had the upper hand. But when rebels attacked at the end of January 2014, the city became divided within just a few hours. One half remained under IS control while the other was wrested away by one of the local brigades. Haji Bakr was stuck in the wrong half. Furthermore, in order to remain incognito he had refrained from moving into one of the heavily guarded IS military quarters. And so, the godfather of snitching was snitched on by a neighbor. "A Daish sheik lives next door!" the man called. A local commander named Abdelmalik Hadbe and his men drove over to Bakr's house. A woman jerked open the door and said brusquely: "My husband isn't here."

But his car is parked out front, the rebels countered.

At that moment, Haji Bakr appeared at the door in his pajamas. Hadbe ordered him to come with them, whereupon Bakr protested that he wanted to get dressed. No, Hadbe repeated: "Come with us! Immediately!"

Surprisingly nimbly for his age, Bakr jumped back and kicked the door closed, according to two people who witnessed the scene. He then hid under the stairs and yelled: "I have a suicide belt! I'll blow up all of us!" He then came out with a Kalashnikov and began shooting. Hadbe then fired his weapon and killed Bakr.

When the men later learned who they had killed, they searched the house, gathering up computers, passports, mobile phone SIM cards, a GPS device and, most importantly, papers. They didn't find a Koran anywhere.

Haji Bakr was dead and the local rebels took his wife into custody. Later, the rebels exchanged her for Turkish IS hostages at the request of Ankara. Bakr's valuable papers were initially hidden away in a chamber, where they spent several months.

A Second Cache of Documents

Haji Bakr's state continued to work even without its creator. Just how precisely his plans were implemented -- point by point -- is confirmed by the discovery of another file. When IS was forced to rapidly abandon its headquarters in Aleppo in January 2014, they tried to burn their archive, but they ran into a problem similar to that confronted by the East German secret police 25 years earlier: They had too many files.

Some of them remained intact and ended up with the al-Tawhid Brigade, Aleppo's largest rebel group at the time. After lengthy negotiations, the group agreed to make the papers available to SPIEGEL for exclusive publication rights -- everything except a list of IS spies inside of al-Tawhid.

An examination of the hundreds of pages of documents reveals a highly complex system involving the infiltration and surveillance of all groups, including IS' own people. The jihad archivists maintained long lists noting which informants they had installed in which rebel brigades and government militias. It was even noted who among the rebels was a spy for Assad's intelligence service.

"They knew more than we did, much more," said the documents' custodian. Personnel files of the fighters were among them, including detailed letters of application from incoming foreigners, such as the Jordanian Nidal Abu Eysch. He sent along all of his terror references, including their telephone numbers, and the file number of a felony case against him. His hobbies were also listed: hunting, boxing, bomb building.

IS wanted to know everything, but at the same time, the group wanted to deceive everyone about its true aims. One multiple-page report, for example, carefully lists all of the pretexts IS could use to justify the seizure of the largest flour mill in northern Syria. It includes such excuses as alleged embezzlement as well as the ungodly behavior of the mill's workers. The reality -- that all strategically important facilities like industrial bakeries, grain silos and generators were to be seized and their equipment sent to the caliphate's unofficial capital Raqqa -- was to be kept under wraps.

Over and over again, the documents reveal corollaries with Haji Bakr's plans for the establishment of IS -- for example that marrying in to influential families should be pushed. The files from Aleppo also included a list of 34 fighters who wanted wives in addition to other domestic needs. Abu Luqman and Abu Yahya al-Tunis, for example, noted that they needed an apartment. Abu Suheib and Abu Ahmed Osama requested bedroom furniture. Abu al-Baraa al Dimaschqi asked for financial assistance in addition to a complete set of furniture, while Abu Azmi wanted a fully automatic washing machine.

Shifting Alliances

But in the first months of 2014, yet another legacy from Haji Bakr began playing a decisive role: His decade of contacts to Assad's intelligence services.

In 2003, the Damascus regime was panicked that then-US President George W. Bush, after his victory over Saddam Hussein, would have his troops continue into Syria to topple Assad as well. Thus, in the ensuing years, Syrian intelligence officials organized the transfer of thousands of radicals from Libya, Saudi Arabia and Tunisia to al-Qaida in Iraq. Ninety percent of the suicide attackers entered Iraq via the Syrian route. A strange relationship developed between Syrian generals, international jihadists and former Iraqi officers who had been loyal to Saddam -- a joint venture of deadly enemies, who met repeatedly to the west of Damascus.

At the time, the primary aim was to make the lives of the Americans in Iraq hell. Ten years later, Bashar Assad had a different motive to breathe new life into the alliance: He wanted to sell himself to the world as the lesser of several evils. Islamist terror, the more gruesome the better, was too important to leave it up to the terrorists. The regime's relationship with Islamic State is -- just as it was to its predecessor a decade prior -- marked by a completely tactical pragmatism. Both sides are trying to use the other in the assumption that it will emerge as the stronger power, able to defeat the discrete collaborator of yesterday. Conversely, IS leaders had no problem receiving assistance from Assad's air force, despite all of the group's pledges to annihilate the apostate Shiites. Starting in January 2014, Syrian jets would regularly -- and exclusively -- bomb rebel positions and headquarters during battles between IS and rebel groups.

In battles between IS and rebels in January 2014, Assad's jets regularly bombed only rebel positions, while the Islamic State emir ordered his fighters to refrain from shooting at the army. It was an arrangement that left many of the foreign fighters deeply disillusioned; they had imaged jihad differently.

IS threw its entire arsenal at the rebels, sending more suicide bombers into their ranks in just a few weeks than it deployed during the entire previous year against the Syrian army. Thanks in part to additional air strikes, IS was able to reconquer territory that it had briefly lost.

Nothing symbolizes the tactical shifting of alliances more than the fate of the Syrian army's Division 17. The isolated base near Raqqa had been under rebel siege for more than a year. But then, IS units defeated the rebels there and Assad's air force was once again able to use the base for supply flights without fear of attack.

But a half year later, after IS conquered Mosul and took control of a gigantic weapons depot there, the jihadists felt powerful enough to attack their erstwhile helpers. IS fighters overran Division 17 and slaughtered the soldiers, whom they had only recently protected.

What the Future May Hold

The setbacks suffered by IS in recent months -- the defeat in the fight for Kurdish enclave Kobani and, more recently, the loss of the Iraqi city of Tikrit, have generated the impression that the end of Islamic State is nigh. As though it, in its megalomania, overreached itself, has lost its mystique, is in retreat and will soon disappear. But such forced optimism is likely premature. The IS may have lost many fighters, but it has continued expanding in Syria.

It is true that jihadist experiments in ruling a specific geographical area have failed in the past. Mostly, though, that was because of their lack of knowledge regarding how to administer a region, or even a state. That is exactly the weakness that IS strategists have long been aware of -- and eliminated. Within the "Caliphate," those in power have constructed a regime that is more stable and more flexible than it appears from the outside.

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi may be the officially named leader, but it remains unclear how much power he holds. In any case, when an emissary of al-Qaida head Ayman al-Zawahiri contacted the Islamic State, it was Haji Bakr and other intelligence officers, and not al-Baghdadi, whom he approached. Afterwards, the emissary bemoaned "these phony snakes who are betraying the real jihad."

Within IS, there are state structures, bureaucracy and authorities. But there is also a parallel command structure: elite units next to normal troops; additional commanders alongside nominal military head Omar al-Shishani; power brokers who transfer or demote provincial and town emirs or even make them disappear at will. Furthermore, decisions are not, as a rule, made in Shura Councils, nominally the highest decision-making body. Instead, they are being made by the "people who loosen and bind" (ahl al-hall wa-l-aqd), a clandestine circle whose name is taken from the Islam of medieval times.

Islamic State is able to recognize all manner of internal revolts and stifle them. At the same time, the hermitic surveillance structure is also useful for the financial exploitation of its subjects.

The air strikes flown by the US-led coalition may have destroyed the oil wells and refineries. But nobody is preventing the Caliphate's financial authorities from wringing money out of the millions of people who live in the regions under IS control -- in the form of new taxes and fees, or simply by confiscating property. IS, after all, knows everything from its spies and from the data it plundered from banks, land-registry offices and money-changing offices. It knows who owns which homes and which fields; it knows who owns many sheep or has lots of money. The subjects may be unhappy, but there is minimal room for them to organize, arm themselves and rebel.

As the West's attention is primarily focused on the possibility of terrorist attacks, a different scenario has been underestimated: the approaching intra-Muslim war between Shiites and Sunnis. Such a conflict would allow IS to graduate from being a hated terror organization to a central power.

Already today, the frontlines in Syria, Iraq and Yemen follow this confessional line, with Shiite Afghans fighting against Sunni Afghans in Syria and IS profiting in Iraq from the barbarism of brutal Shiite militias. Should this ancient Islam conflict continue to escalate, it could spill over into confessionally mixed states such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and Lebanon.

In such a case, IS propaganda about the approaching apocalypse could become a reality. In its slipstream, an absolutist dictatorship in the name of God could be established.
URL:

http://www.spiegel.de/international...cture-of-islamist-terror-group-a-1029274.html

Related SPIEGEL ONLINE links:

Interview with Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Abadi: 'The Liberation of Tikrit Is Very Encouraging' (04/03/2015)
http://www.spiegel.de/international...usses-gains-over-islamic-state-a-1027059.html
Proxy War in Yemen: Saudi Arabia and Iran Vie for Regional Supremacy (04/03/2015)
http://www.spiegel.de/international...an-fighting-proxy-war-in-yemen-a-1027056.html
Caliphate Under Pressure: Is Islamic State in Trouble in Iraq? (03/26/2015)
http://www.spiegel.de/international...shows-islamic-state-weaknesses-a-1025138.html
Medieval Fantasies? Islamic State Pursues Apocalyptic Logic (03/19/2015)
http://www.spiegel.de/international...to-draw-west-into-final-battle-a-1024438.html
A Threat to Europe: The Islamic State's Dangerous Gains in Libya (02/23/2015)
http://www.spiegel.de/international...could-present-threat-to-europe-a-1019976.html
Daughters of Jihad: The German Women of Islamic State (02/13/2015)
http://www.spiegel.de/international...-germany-to-join-islamic-state-a-1017571.html
The Belgium Question: Why Is a Small Country Producing So Many Jihadists? (01/27/2015)
http://www.spiegel.de/international...-toward-jihad-in-large-numbers-a-1015045.html
Terror Expert Louise Shelley: 'Islamic State Is a Diversified Criminal Operation' (01/06/2015)
http://www.spiegel.de/international...f-islamic-state-business-model-a-1011492.html

© SPIEGEL ONLINE 2015
All Rights Reserved
 

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Apr 20, 5:30 AM EDT

Full circle: Chlorine now chemical weapon of choice in Syria

By MIKE CORDER
Associated Press

THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) -- Exactly one century ago Wednesday, German troops opened the taps on a line of chlorine tanks to send a poisonous cloud drifting across no man's land and into World War I Allied trenches. The gas blinded soldiers and made them retch, vomit and choke, combining with bodily fluids to destroy their lungs.

Today chemical warfare has come full circle.

Reports from Syria about chemical weapons used in that conflict also involve chlorine - a widely available substance that has legitimate industrial and commercial uses. Both government forces and insurgents deny accusations of using the gas.

A report last year by a fact-finding mission set up by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons said a toxic chemical, almost certainly chlorine, was used repeatedly in attacks on villages in Northern Syria.

"Leaves on plants ... wilted `like autumn leaves,'" it cited witnesses as saying. "In one case, a child standing close to the impact site died later because of exposure to the toxic chemical."

British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said the report's findings pointed to the regime of President Bashar Assad using chlorine as a weapon.

Both sides denying using chemical weapons while accusing the other of poison attacks.

There was no point in denying it a century ago in Flanders Fields.

The first large-scale use of chlorine as a weapon, at Ieper, Belgium, on April 22, 1915, unleashed massive use of gas by both Germany and the Allies during the last three years of the 1914-1918 war. Chemical weapons killed nearly 100,000 and injured around 1 million more during the conflict.

The horrific scale of World War I gas casualties - and the suffering they caused - helped launch what has been hailed as one of the most successful disarmament campaigns in history. It culminated in the 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention and creation of the Hague-based Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. The watchdog with 190 member states won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2013.

The OPCW's director-general, Ahmet Uzumcu, said in a recent speech that all chemical weapons across the 98 percent of the world covered by his organization's members will be destroyed "within this decade."

"That amounts to more than 70,000 metric tons of chemical agent," Uzumcu said. "To put this figure into perspective, it takes only one drop of much of this agent to kill an adult instantly."

Despite that success and global condemnation of poison gas and nerve agents, deadly chemical attacks have continued throughout the past century.

Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein was the worst offender. He was accused of using mustard gas and the nerve agent taubun in his country's war with neighboring Iran, as well as his 1987-88 crackdown on Iraq's Kurdish minority.

The most notorious case was in the village of Halabja, where some 5,000 people were killed by poison gas.

Photos taken after the Halabja attack on March 16, 1988, showed bodies of men, women, children and animals lying in heaps on the streets.

While the state-organized attack on Halabja shocked the world, a deadly nerve agent attack on the Tokyo subway marked the emergence of a new threat: terrorists getting their hands on toxins.

In 1995, 13 people were killed and about 6,000 sickened when packages containing the nerve agent sarin were leaked on five separate subway trains by members of the Aum Shinrikyo cult.

Meanwhile, the world's two biggest owners of chemical weapons, the United States and Russia, are methodically destroying their stockpiles.

Russia has destroyed about 86 percent of its stockpile, and the U.S. about 90 percent. Russia is expected to finish destruction by the end of 2020 and the U.S. by September 2023.

Syria joined the OPCW in 2013 to ward off the possibility of U.S. airstrikes after President Assad was accused of a deadly chemical weapons attack on a Damascus suburb. The country admitted owning about 1,300 tons of chemical weapons and ingredients for making toxic gas and nerve agents.

An unprecedented international effort swung into action to remove the most dangerous chemicals from the country and destroy them all, though questions remain about whether the Assad regime reported all its stocks to the OPCW.

While the days of nations building up huge stockpiles of chemical weapons appear to be largely over, fears of chemical attacks using chlorine are not - as recent reported use of the chemical in Syria underscores.

"So we come back to entities not engaging in the development or production of warfare agent but using what is available ... `off the shelf,'" said chemical weapons expert Jean Pascal Zanders. "It's almost a logical outgrowth of the success of chemical disarmament that one would go back to some very elementary things."

© 2015 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
 

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150421/af-ethiopia-islamic-state-killings-e5f0be7a8e.html

Ethiopians shocked by Islamic State killings

Apr 20, 11:51 PM (ET)
By ELIAS MESERET

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia (AP) — Many in Ethiopia are reeling from the news that several Ethiopians were killed in Libya by the Islamic State group, which over the weekend released a video purporting to show the killings.

The killings, which have shocked many in the predominantly Christian country, were condemned by Pope Francis and U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.

The victims were planning to go to Europe by boat from Libya but were captured and then killed by the Islamic extremists, said grieving family members and government officials. Ethiopia's government on Monday declared three days of mourning.

Pope Francis on Monday sent a letter to the patriarch of Ethiopian Tewahedo Orthodox Church, Abuna Matthias, expressing "distress and sadness" at the "further shocking violence perpetrated against innocent Christians in Libya.

The pope has been very vocal in condemning the persecution of Christians across the globe in recent months, and stressed in the letter to the Ethiopian orthodox patriarch that "it makes no difference whether the victims are Catholic, Copt, Orthodox or Protestant."

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon condemned the killings and "utterly deplores the targeting of people on the basis of their religious affiliation," his spokesman said.

The U.N. Security Council condemned "the heinous and cowardly apparent murder" of more than 30 Ethiopian Christians and stressed again that the Islamic State group "must be defeated and that the intolerance, violence and hatred it espouses must be stamped out."

The council demanded the immediate release of all hostages held by the extremist group and called for those responsible for the "reprehensible acts of terrorism" to be brought to justice.

Some people gathered Monday gathered in an Addis Ababa slum to mourn two former residents whose faces were recognized in the Islamic State video. The 29-minute video, released on Sunday via social media accounts and websites used by the extremists, shows many Ethiopian Christians held captive in Libya being shot or beheaded by militants.

Eyasu Yikunoamlak and Balcha Belete left Ethiopia two months ago with the aim of reaching Europe. They are believed to have left Ethiopia through Sudan and later traveled to Libya where they planned to take a boat to Europe but they were seized by Islamic State militants, relatives told The Associated Press on Monday.

Relatives and friends of the two victims in Cherkos Village, a poor neighborhood of the Ethiopian capital, said Eyasu and Balcha grew up together and used to live in the same house.

Seyoum Yikunoamlak, the older brother of Eyasu, said he first learned about the death of his younger brother on Sunday evening while checking the news on Facebook.

"I was very worried how to tell our family but everyone is a Facebook user these days so people in our village told our family that Eyasu was among the group that are on the (Islamic State) video," a tearful Seyoum said.

Family members stopped getting calls from Eyasu a month ago and grew worried, but news of a violent death was never expected, he said.

"His dream was to go to Italy and then reach the U.K. and help himself and his family members," he said.

Redwan Hussein, an Ethiopian government spokesman, said on Sunday he believed the victims were Ethiopian migrants trying to reach Europe, an account bolstered by local residents who said impoverished young men are tempted to make the perilous journey to Europe.

"There is no job opportunity here. I will try my luck too, but not through Libya," said Meshesa Mitiku, a longtime friend of the two victims. "I want to move out. There is no chance to improve yourself here. This is the whole community's opinion."

Ethiopia's three days of mourning start Tuesday, when lawmakers will meet to discuss the killings and consider the country's possible response, the government said in a statement.

Ethiopia has angered Islamic extremists over its military's attacks on neighboring Somalia, whose population is almost entirely Muslim. A militant in the video said "Muslim blood that was shed under the hands of your religion is not cheap," but the video did not specifically mention the Ethiopian government's actions.

The Islamic State video showing the killing of the Ethiopians starts with what it called a history of Christian-Muslim relations, followed by scenes of militants destroying churches, graves and icons. A masked fighter brandishing a pistol delivers a long statement, saying Christians must convert to Islam or pay a special tax prescribed by the Quran.

---

Edith M. Lederer at the United Nations and Colleen Barry in Milan contributed.
 

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Mexico: New video in vigilantes' killings by security forces

Apr 20, 5:36 PM (ET)

MEXICO CITY (AP) — Mexican officials said Monday they have delivered new information about the January killings of vigilantes during clashes with soldiers and police, as part of a probe of possible excessive force.

The information handed over includes a new video from which "one can infer presumed acts of excessive use of force or abuse of authority by elements of the Federal Police," the Office of the Federal Security Commission said in a statement.

The video was received from an anonymous tipster and delivered to prosecutors and Federal Police "for the purpose of knowing in detail what happened ... (and) so that they carry out the appropriate investigations," the statement read.

The clashes took place Jan. 6 in Apatzingan, in the southwestern state of Michoacan. Nine civilians died as police moved to dislodge members of self-defense militia groups that formed in 2013 to fight the Knights Templar drug gang.

Authorities have given several different versions of what happened: At first, the victims were said to have been killed after firing on soldiers; then, after they had fired at police; and finally, that most of the dead had been killed by other civilians.

However witnesses said that while the victims were angry that 44 of their companions had been arrested in the operation, they were armed only with clubs. They reportedly exited their trucks saying, repeatedly, "Don't shoot!"

Apatzingan is the hub of a conflictive region known as Tierra Caliente, or Hot Land.
 

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http://johnbatchelorshow.com/schedules/monday-20-april-2015

Monday 20 April 2015
Air Date:
April 20, 2015
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Hour One
Monday 20 April 2015 / Hour 1, Block A: Thomas Joscelyn, Long War Journal senior editor, in re: Benghazi suspect designated by UN, State Department Both the US State Department and the UN have designated Ali Ouni Harzi as a terrorist. The UN designation notes Harzi's alleged role in the Sept. 11, 2012 attack in Benghazi, Libya, whereas the State Department does not. / Jihadists claim wanted al Qaeda operative killed in Syria Online jihadists are claiming that Adel Radi Saker al Wahabi al Harbi, who was designated a terrorist by the US Treasury Department in 2012, has been killed in Syria. Al Harbi previously served as the deputy head of al Qaeda's Iran-based network. READ MORE → / Russian troops kill leader of Islamic Caucasus Emirate Ali Abu Muhammad al Dagestani led the Islamic Caucasus Emirate during defections to the Islamic State. He openly stated his allegiance to Al Qaeda and the global jihadist group also provided him support.
Monday 20 April 2015 / Hour 1, Block B: Ann Marlowe, Hudson Institute, in re: Europe Faces Crisis as Hundreds of Migrants Die in Mediterranean Sinkings The disaster also underscored how Libya, reeling from violence and political turmoil, has ... / ISIS releases video purportedly showing killing of Ethiopian Christians in Libya / EU to launch military operations against migrant-smugglers in Libya
Monday 20 April 2015 / Hour 1, Block C: Andrew McCarthy, National Review, in re: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/417043/khamenei-fatwa-hoax-absurd-its-face-andrew-c-mccarthy
Monday 20 April 2015 / Hour 1, Block D: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com, in re: China Estimates Largest Capital Outflow in More Than a Decade in Final Quarter 2014 (Original Tweet: https://twitter.com/alimhaider/status/588929251253952514)
Why the Record Drop in Chinese House Prices Suggests Beijing Is Already in a Recession zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-1… ; China makes big cut in bank reserve requirement to fight slowdown ; Mao taboo: criticising the founder of Communist China is still considered blasphemous
Chinese Journalist Jailed for Exposing Ban on Free Speech China has just sentenced a 71-year-old ace journalist, Gao Yu, to seven years in prison on charges of “leaking state secrets overseas.” And what are those secrets she is accused of leaking? They center on renewed efforts by the Chinese Communist Party under President Xi Jinping to suppress free speech.
We have here a sort of infinite regression of absurdities. If China’s authorities consider it a state secret that their policies are to smother free speech and punish dissent, then they themselves are broadcasting this secret by jailing a journalist for exposing it. Presumably, any Chinese journalist who might dare to delve into this could be accused of exposing the exposure of this secret — which is actually no secret at all. But that’s the very point: To silence other Chinese journalists, and chill discussion more broadly among those who cover China. Censorship is easier to practice when people are afraid even to suggest that it exists.

http://johnbatchelorshow.com/podcas...-marlowe-hudson-co-host-thaddeus-mccotter-wjr
http://traffic.libsyn.com/batchelorshow/JBS_2015_04_20AA.mp3

Monday 20 April 2015 / Hour 2, Block C: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: US says no immediate sanctions relief for Iran / State department echoes vice president’s statements that removing punitive measures will be ‘phased’ process / Netanyahu and Rivlin refuse to meet with Jimmy Carter / Israeli leaders won’t sit down with former US president during upcoming visit; official cites his ‘anti-Israel’ stance / US warships to monitor ships traveling from Iran U.S. warships are being deployed to Yemen to monitor ships in the area travelling . . . / US aircraft carrier sent to block Iranian shipments to Yemen / US warship heads to Yemeni waters; could block Iran weapons
Monday 20 April 2015 / Hour 2, Block D: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: US seeks to calm Poland on FBI chief’s Holocaust piece / Officials explain James Comey ‘did not intend to suggest’ Poles responsible for Nazi actions, but no word on apology

http://johnbatchelorshow.com/podcas...otter-wjr-author-“liberty-risen”david-drucker
http://traffic.libsyn.com/batchelorshow/JBS_2015_04_20BB.mp3

Hour Three
Monday 20 April 2015 / Hour 3, Block A: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial board & host of OpinionJournal.com; in re: Opinion Journal: The GOP's New Hampshire Kick-Off
Monday 20 April 2015 / Hour 3, Block B: Anatoly Zak, Russian Space Web & author, Russia in Space, The Past Explained, the Future Explored, in re: observed, but otherwise almost entirely unknown and not understood, Russian sat launches evincing unusual and hitherto unfamiliar behaviors. http://www.russianspaceweb.com/Cosmos-2504.html
Kosmos-2504 pushes target off its orbit In 2015, another mysterious Russian satellite -- Kosmos-2504 -- followed Kosmos-2499 into orbit to conduct a series of unexplained manoeuvers.
Monday 20 April 2015 / Hour 3, Block C: Gary Roughead, Annenberg Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution, in re: U.S. Defense Policy Issues Pertaining to the Asia-Pacific Theater , Date: Tuesday, April 14, 2015 ; Time: 09:00 AM ; Location: Room SD-G50, Dirksen Senate Office Building; Admiral Gary Roughead via United States Senate. To watch: http://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/15-04-14-us-defense-policy... ; http://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Roughead_04-14-15.pdf

http://johnbatchelorshow.com/podcas...editorial-anatoly-zak-russianspacewebcom-gary
http://traffic.libsyn.com/batchelorshow/jbs042015c.mp3
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Recall the idea of afloat foward operating bases of this size have been proposed before both by the US within the last decades and during the Second World War, in that case for use in the North Atlantic being made out of engineered ice.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.popsci.com/chinese-shipyard-looks-build-giant-floating-islands

Chinese Shipyard Looks to Build Giant Floating Islands

1,000,000 ton battlestations

By Jeffrey Lin and P.W. Singer Posted Yesterday at 5:00am

Floating Island
che at lt.cjdby.net

This CGI shows one of JDG's floating islands, which is likely the largest 120m X 900M configuration. The floating island can support both civilian and military missions, including supply, landing aircraft and basing of amphibious vehicles.
China, not just satisfied with turning South China Sea reefs into airports, is looking to expand its naval basing activities by building giant floating islands.

Important Guests
Huang Bohai News

The April 2015 press conference of the Jidong Development Group included interesting guests, like this PLA officer. Considering that the first floating island will be based as a deep sea support project in the South China Sea, the PLA could have dual use interests in JDG's technology.
The Jidong Development Group (JDG), a construction company, and Hainan Hai Industrial Company (Hai is Mandarin for ocean) are proposing to build a floating sea base for multipurpose usage, such as tourism, shipping, power generation and offshore fossil fuel extraction. The floating sea base would be based in the South China Sea, for logistical support activities.

Shell Australia Prelude
News Australia

Shell Australia's Prelude, was built in South Korea and displaces 600,000 tons at full load. It extracts natural gas from undersea fields, and liquifies them to offload for transport by LNG carriers.

Currently, the largest offshore floating platforms are natural gas and oil production facilities, of which Australia Shell's Prelude is the world's largest. Built by Samsung Heavy Industries and Technip, the Prelude is 488 meters long, 74 meters wide and has a full displacement of 600,000 tons. The Prelude has a catamaran ship's double hull and is currently anchored off northwest Australia's eponymous gas field.

Airport and Port
che at lt.cjdby.net

The floating island can be outfitted to accommodate both port terminal facilities, fuel bunkerage and airstrips, raising all sorts of interesting new logistical capabilities. For instance, this air-sea port would be able to be shifted towards disaster zones, with airplanes loading humanitarian relief for quick delivery inland.

JDG's floating island designs are modular, being assembled from multiple semi-submersible hull sections. They would come in three sizes. The smaller island is 300 meters long and 90 meters wide, the medium sized island is 120 meters wide and 600 meters lond, while the larger island is 900 meters long and 120 meters wide. Assuming a hull draft of around 16 meters, full displacement of the islands could likely be around 400,000 and 1.5 million tons, respectively.

The design though would allow the islands to scale much larger, by attaching more semi-submersible hull modules, just like Lego bricks. Despite the large size of the individual modules, the floating islands could be easily assembled in deep offshore waters by linking together modules transported by semi-submersible heavy lift ships from landbased shipyards.

That's no island!
che at lt.cjdby.net

This JDG floating island island is even larger than the currently planned 900m long floating island. With a length of 2 kilometers (the cargo ship alongside it would be around 400 meters long), its large size is made possible by the modular construction of JDG's shipbuilding technology. The islands can also travel at speeds of up to 18 kilometers an hour.

Such giant bases could house battalions of marines and a wing of fighter/attack aircraft, and unlike fixed island bases, they can be redeployed away from enemy missiles.
The technical description of the JDG floating island is a "deep sea support base." That is, unlike an actual island, they will be mobile. JDG General Manager Wang Yandong said that the islands can move at speeds of up to 18 kilometers an hour. The floating islands could serve as an offshore wind farm, oil production and as a rapidly deployable offshore port. While JDG has mentioned the island's potential as sea mobile resorts to move between northern Bohai Bay in the summer and tropical Hainan during winter, the presence of a PLA officer at the JDG press conference raises interesting questions about future military interests in the JDG's floating islands.

Project Habbukak
diseo.net

During World War II, Britain attempted to build a 2 million ton aircraft carrier big enough to support larger anti-submarine warfare airplanes (to combat German U boats). Project Habbukak was built from pyrite (a frozen, lighter than water mixture of sawdust and water).
Floating island plans in war have ranged from the Royal Navy's Project Habbukak, a massive ice and concrete aircraft carrier built in prototype in World War II, to US Navy's Joint Mobile Offshore Base plan in the early 2000s, of which studies called for being able to accommodate a 1.5 mile long airstrip. The goal of such programs is that a mobile floating island could carry many times more aircraft and soldiers than a carrier or amphibious assault group. An additional military advantage to China's modular floating island design is that its large size and compartmentalized construction would make it very difficult to sink (an opponent would have to strike a large number of the modules to compromise the island's seaworthiness).

Joint Mobile Offshore Base

Popular Mechanics

The JMOB was an American proposal in the mid 2000s to use 300m by 150m steel/concrete floating modules to build large ocean going bases. The JMOB was intended to replace bases in places such as Saudi Arabia and Japan, though most JMOB configurations would be much smaller than this maxed out version.

For China, a floating island airbase, besides obvious deployments to disputed islands, could be a new kind of tool for global military projection, notably addressing one of China's strategic weaknesses compared to the US, its dearth of foreign military bases. In the near future, China could stage anti-piracy missions and humanitarian relief from well stocked floating islands. More forceful uses of floating islands could be temporary or permanent deployments off the waters of potential battlefields.

Thanks to: Hongjian, Jeff Head and Henri K.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://atimes.com/2015/04/is-iran-capable-of-rethink-on-israel/

Is Iran capable of rethink on Israel?

Author: M.K. Bhadrakumar April 20, 2015 7 Comments

Chatham House Rules
Arab Spring, Iran nuclear issue, Iran-Israel, Persian Gulf security, US-Iran

In an op-Ed in the New York Times today, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif has made a sweeping, far-reaching proposal for the establishment of a collective forum for dialogue in the Persian Gulf region. Tehran has outlined its vision on Persian Gulf security in the past also, but there is a new context today, and there are new elements in the concept outlined by Zarif.

In the past, the idea of a collective forum was Tehran’s knife aimed at the heart of the Gulf Cooperation Council [GCC], a US-backed body whose raison d’etre consisted in Iran’s regional isolation. Whereas, Iran today has effectively defeated the US’ containment strategy, and the GCC itself is in a state of drift, far from cohesive.

The US’ ties with the GCC states too are in disarray. In a major departure, Zarif has not demanded that the US should vacate its military presence. His proposal is actually presented as a process through which the existing parameters of the US-Iranian engagement transmutes itself into a regional partnership in the period ahead beyond a nuclear deal.

Thus, Tehran’s motivation at the present juncture needs to be understood from three angles. First and foremost, evidently, the Middle East crisis has become very acute and brooks no delay and Iran’s vital interests are affected.

Zarif proposes, in fact, that Yemen crisis could be the starting point of a regional dialogue. Two, in a broader perspective, Iran is looking beyond June 30 and is calibrating its regional role in the post-deal period that lies ahead. Arguably, he is also giving an underpinning to the implementation of the nuclear deal in a climate of growing confidence and mutual trust.

Three, most importantly, emanating from the above, Iran is keen to broad-base and sustain its 18-month long engagement with the US and put it on a long term footing with the two countries becoming stakeholders in regional and international security and stability. Simply put, it is both a major foreign-policy overture to the US on the part of Iran and a reiteration of its multi-vectored strategic calculus.

With a dramatic touch, Zarif frames the future scope for expanding the US-Iranian engagement: “Iran has been clear: The purview of our constructive engagement extends far beyond nuclear negotiations… Iranian foreign policy is holistic in nature.”

Zarif willingly anticipates that the proposed regional dialogue could well morph into “more formal and security cooperation arrangements,” hinting at Iran’s willingness to be part of such arrangements with the US.

Unsurprisingly, Zarif insists that to begin with, this cooperation “must be kept to relevant regional stakeholders” but, interestingly, he remains open at the same time to link “any regional dialogue [in the Persian Gulf] with issues that inherently go beyond the boundaries of the region.”

Israel is beyond the scope of the proposed regional platform for dialogue in the Persian Gulf between Iran and its neighbors. Nonetheless, the most interesting part of the reworked Iranian proposal, perhaps, is that although Zarif neatly sidestepped mentioning any regional state, he strongly endorsed as an overriding principle the right of all states to exist in a climate free of “concerns and anxieties” and he acknowledged Iran’s willingness to “provide the international community with assurances and mechanisms for safeguarding its legitimate interests.”

Zarif would know that such a fundamental principle cannot be cannibalized, and, therefore, he appears to imply that Iran should be willing for such a principle to be upheld right across the Middle East. It is too early to say whether this is the first hint of an Iranian willingness to accept Israel’s right to exist – something it has refused to do so far – but it well might be.

As a matter of fact, Zarif underscores vehemently that there is nothing like absolute security. To quote him, “Our rationale is that the nuclear issue has been a symptom, not a cause, of mistrust and conflict… Nothing in international politics functions in a vacuum. Security cannot be pursued at the expense of others. No nation can achieve its interests without considering the interests of others.”

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Related Articles

Spengler responds to M.K. Bhadakumar: Why is Iran obsessed with Israel in the first place?
Did the Senate just blow up the Iran nuclear deal?
Angelo Codevilla: Russia’s S-300 sale exposes America’s lag in missile defense

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For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://atimes.com/2015/04/spengler-...iran-obsessed-with-israel-in-the-first-place/

Spengler responds to M.K. Bhadakumar: Why is Iran obsessed with Israel in the first place?

Author: David P. Goldman April 20, 2015 1 Comment
Chatham House Rules, David P. Goldman

With the intellectual boldness that we have come to expect from him, Ambassador M.K. Bhadrakumar reads into a statement by Iran’s foreign minister the possibility that Iran might accept the existence of the State of Israel. That seems counter-intuitive after the chants of “Death to Israel” at Saturday’s military day parade in Tehran, not to mention the April 1 declaration of a Revolutionary Guards general that “erasing Israel off the map is nonnegotiable.” Counter-intuitive, to be sure, is not the same as impossible, and Bhadrakumar’s reading deserves careful scrutiny.

In an April 20 op-ed in The New York Times, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif offered this formulation:

A regional role for the United Nations, already envisaged in the Security Council resolution that helped end the Iran-Iraq war in 1988, would help alleviate concerns and anxieties, particularly of smaller countries; provide the international community with assurances and mechanisms for safeguarding its legitimate interests; and link any regional dialogue with issues that inherently go beyond the boundaries of the region.

That may not be as innocent as it sounds.

Does the language regarding “concerns and anxieties, particularly of smaller countries” and “safeguarding [the] legitimate interests” of the international community refer to the State of Israel? The possibility is intriguing, to be sure, but it is appended to proposal to involve the United Nations in imitation of the UN role in monitoring the Iran-Iraq ceasefire of 1988. That involved the creation of a UN observer and inspection force to “verify, confirm and supervise the cessation of hostilities and withdrawal of all forces to the internationally recognized boundaries” prior to the outbreak of the war. There are no “internationally recognized boundaries” in the case of Israel, only Security Council Resolution 242, which leaves boundaries subject to future negotiation: Israel is required to withdraw “from territories” in the formula crafted by the US at the time, not “from all territories” conquered in the 1967 War. UN observers and peacekeepers on Israel’s borders abound, to be sure, some of whom fled to Israel from Syria after an attack by al-Qaeda-linked rebels last August.

If Zarif’s intention is encourage the UN to impose truncated borders on Israel through a regional UN mechanism, Jerusalem will quite understandably view the measure as amputation rather than acceptance. The head of Iran’s parliamentary Palestine Committee, Nasser al Sudani, declared Dec, 21 that the Islamic Republic stood ready to arm Hamas on the West Bank. A West Bank governed by Hamas and armed with Iranian missiles would be be in position to destroy Israel’s largest city and airport.

All this is mere conjecture, however. A more fundamental question to ask is: why has the Islamic Republic inveighed for Israel’s destruction since its founding in 1979? Israel had no history of enmity with Iran. On the contrary, relations between Iran under the Shah were cordial. Like Turkey, Iran recognized the State of Israel, and cooperation extended from energy to (reportedly) joint missile development. Nor did Israeli-Iranian cooperation cease entirely after Khomeini came to power: Israel reportedly provided arms and technical support to Iran during the first phase of the Iran-Iraq War with the encouragement of the Reagan Administration.

There is no evidence of any such cooperation since 2000, when Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei called Israel a “cancerous tumor” that must be removed from the region. What motivated the Iranian regime’s morbid obsession with the State of Israel? One searches in vain for a rational explanation. By contrast, Jew-hatred is known among Hindus and Chinese. The Jews’ self-conception as an eternal people called into existence by God, whose “descendants will be established” before him even after the world wears out, bothers Indians and Chinese not in the least. They consider themselves as old or older than the Jews and quite as eternal. Jew-hatred is the envy of the dying for the living, and Iran is a dying country. It suffered the fastest drop in fertility of any country in world history, plunging from premodern fertility (7 births per woman) in 1979 to post-industrial fertility (1.6 per woman) in 2012. It is beset by social pathologies–epidemic drug abuse, prostitution, and sexually-transmitted diseases–on a scale seen nowhere else in Western Asia.

Iran has no strategic grounds to fight the Jewish State; it had none under the Shah, and has none today except for the existential palsy that makes it shudder at the existence of a successful and prosperous Jewish State. Israel’s robust demography, economy and culture cast an appalling light on the Islamic Republic’s own fragility. Can today’s Iran step back from this obsession and view its strategic interests in a more calculating light? The question is up to Iran to answer. Hitler, after all, couldn’t have lost World War II if only he had had the Jews on his side. He wasted vast amounts of logistical capacity to kill Jews, at the expense of his own war effort.

Iran as a nation has looked into the abyss, that is, at the foreseeable, ineluctable prospect of demographic reduction to the point of national irrelevance. No-one knows what another man or another nation sees when it looks into the abyss. As a Jew with a passion for Israel’s well-being, I do not believe that the present Iranian regime can rid itself of its obsession with the Jews. But I salute M.K. Bhadrakumar for requiring me to consider another possibility.

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http://atimes.com/2015/04/angelo-codevilla-replies-irans-main-worry-is-the-sunnis/


Angelo Codevilla replies: Iran’s main worry is the Sunnis

Author: Angelo Codevilla April 20, 2015 1 Comment
Angelo Codevilla

Bhadrakumar and Goldman recognize that Iranian foreign minister Zarif’s words are pregnant with meaning. Is it possible that Iran might accept Israel’s existence? Is it possible that Iran might really “provide the international community with assurances and mechanisms for safeguarding its legitimate interests?” In taking these words seriously, both are more perceptive than the US foreign policy establishment, which lives by faith in good will and economic interest, as well as of the Neoconservatives who declaim the “devilish Mullahs” as congenital enemies with enormous power. Both Bhadrakumar and Goldman seek an explanation for why Iranian foreign policy might be amenable to a tectonic shift – wholly regardless of the nuclear issue. Bhadrakumar suggests, vaguely, that Iran is seeking to transmute “the existing parameters of the US-Iranian relationship..into a regional partnership”. Goldman, intrigued with possibilities, imagines the Iranians having looked into the abyss of demographic doom. But he does not “believe that the present Iranian regime can rid itself of its obsession with the Jew
I suggest that the Iranians, whatever obsessions they have about Americans or Jews, are looking into an abyss more immediate than demographic decline, namely: they are now engaged in a very bloody sectarian war with enemies potentially ten times their number. This may well reorder their priorities.

Goldman is correct that Iran has no geopolitical or historical reason for hostility with the Jews. On the contrary: A Persian, Cyrus the Great, ended the Babylonian captivity in 536 BC. In our time, Israel has fought wars against the Persians’ most active enemies, the Sunni Arabs. Geopolitical threats to Iran come not from faraway America but from nearby Russia as well as from Sunni states. Neither America nor Israel threatens to slaughter Shia. Others do. Since 1979, Iran has indulged in strategic fantasies. The current Sunni/Shia world war is blowing those fantasies away.

For Iran, the business at hand is to rally and consolidate vulnerable Shia elements, scattered as they are throughout the Middle East. Yes, Iran has a better trained military, greater power-projection capacity, and central location. But size matters. So does militancy. We must keep in mind – and Iran never forgets – that the Sunni side (specifically the Wahabi) started this latest round of sectarian war. In the long run, the Sunni world has the advantage, especially if it can draw on the support the West and of the West’s Israeli outpost. Iranian nuclear weapons make a lot of sense for the Shia world’s safety. Peace with America and Israel make just as much sense.

As the several Wahabi offshoots are slaughtering Shia, it makes no sense for Iran to indulge whatever harsh sentiments they might have toward Jews and Americans. They may be crazy. But I doubt they are stupid.

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Housecarl

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For links see article source.....
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...hpModule_04941f10-8a79-11e2-98d9-3012c1cd8d1e

WorldViews
What China’s and Pakistan’s special friendship means

By Ishaan Tharoor April 21 at 3:30 AM Follow @ishaantharoor

The friendship between China and Pakistan, read billboards in Chinese and English dotting Islamabad this week, "is higher than mountains, deeper than oceans, sweeter than honey, and stronger than steel." This sort of romantic sloganeering routinely bubbles up ahead of key bilateral summits between the two countries, and so it did this week as Chinese President Xi Jinping made his maiden visit to the South Asian nation.

"This will be my first trip to Pakistan, but I feel as if I am going to visit the home of my own brother," Xi wrote in an article published in Pakistani papers ahead of his arrival, adding another metaphor about how the relationship between the two countries "has flourished like a tree growing tall and strong."

It's easy to see such rhetoric as the cringe-worthy, cynical clap-trap that accompanies international diplomacy. After all, China and Pakistan may share a border, but cultural ties between the two nations and its people are thin, to put it mildly.

So what makes Sino-Pakistani ties tick? Here's a primer.

What's happening now

Xi arrived in Islamabad on Monday bearing real gifts: an eye-popping $46 billion worth of planned energy and infrastructure investment to boost Pakistan's flagging economy. This would include adding some 10,400 megawatts to Pakistan's national grid through coal, nuclear and renewable energy projects.

Years of widespread power cuts have been a real drag on the country; energy shortages were one of the main popular grievances voiced ahead of the 2013 elections won by current Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

At the center of what's being announced this week is a new economic "corridor" — railways, roads and pipelines — that would thread an existing land route from Pakistan's border with the far western Chinese region of Xinjiang through to the Chinese-developed port at Gwadar on the Arabian Sea.

It's an impressive proposal, on a scale that we've come to now associate with China's overseas footprint — more usually in corners of Africa. According to the BBC, the Chinese state and its banks would lend to Chinese companies to carry out the work, thereby making it a commercial venture with direct impact on China's slackening economy.

The project is also a key cog in China's own grand-historic vision of itself as a global power and the font of new sea and land "Silk Roads." The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor would link up a major land route in Central Asia to what China imagines will be one of the key maritime hubs at Gwadar.

Sure, there remain real reasons to be skeptical. Much of the new construction would be done in the vast, restive Pakistani province of Baluchistan, where the army is still grappling with an entrenched separatist insurgency. Moreover, as Pakistani journalist and columnist Cyril Almeida points out, the proposed Chinese numbers stretch credulity, especially when set against the meager sums currently being invested from the outside into Pakistan's economy. The proof, in this case, will be in the building.

An unequal relationship

The saccharine statements of love and friendship belie a harsher truth. In many ways, this is not a relationship of equals.

A Pew survey conducted last year found that an impressive majority of Pakistanis — 78 percent — viewed China favorably. Compare that to the 14 percent of Pakistanis who looked positively upon the U.S., a figure larger only than the 13 percent who have favorable views of India, Pakistan's archrival. Yet, the same number of Chinese hold favorable views of India and China — that is, a minority of 30 percent.

Surging Pakistani admiration for China, it seems, laps up on the shores of Chinese indifference.

China is one of Pakistan's top trade partners. But the volume of trade with Pakistan is a drop in the bucket for Beijing.

China views Pakistan also through the lens of counter-terrorism: a number of extremist outfits allegedly linked to ethnic Uighur separatists within Xinjiang have training camps in Pakistan's rugged borderlands with Afghanistan. Curiously, in a country where there are frequent displays of solidarity with Muslims suffering elsewhere in the world, the Uighurs, a Turkic Muslim minority chafing under Chinese rule, rarely galvanize much Pakistani support.

The bigger chessboard

There are two elephants in the room whenever considering China-Pakistan ties: India and the United States.

Both China and Pakistan have fought wars with India in the past, and to this day squabble over disputed Himalayan territory. China helped Pakistan build its arsenal of nuclear weapons, and remains one of Islamabad's biggest arms suppliers — even as the U.S. continues to commit significant military aid to Pakistan.

After President Obama was India's guest of honor during its annual Republic Day commemoration last January, Pakistan extended a similar invitation to Xi to attend their National Day parade in February. The Chinese leader declined, perhaps wary of such overt political gestures.

As Andrew Small, an expert on China-Pakistan relations at the German Marshall Fund in Washington, writes, it would be an oversimplification to see China's expanding role in Pakistan as just a challenge to a U.S.-India consensus that's emerged in recent years. China, after all, likely values its relations with the U.S. and India as much — and likely more — than its ties with Pakistan.

While China has a more assertive stance in East Asia — its backyard — it's playing a different game to the west. China's recent offer to help mediate talks with the Taliban in Afghanistan, Small notes, marks a real departure from decades when Beijing's official policy has been that of non-interference in the politics of other countries.

Now, as the U.S. has technically withdrawn from Afghanistan, the Chinese have become stakeholders and not just bystanders. Guaranteeing stability in Afghanistan may involve China exerting its own leverage on Pakistan, which has a complicated relationship with the Afghan Taliban.

China, Small suggests, "is finally easing into its role as a great power." And, indeed, it's using Pakistan as a corridor.

_

Ishaan Tharoor writes about foreign affairs for The Washington Post. He previously was a senior editor at TIME, based first in Hong Kong and later in New York.
 
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