ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

kochevnik

Senior Member
IMO - the importance of the the current situation in LYMAN is being severely downplayed here. A significant portion of Russian troops are encircled there and about to be wiped out Custer style.

It provides huge impetus for Putin to use tactical nukes to save them - if Putin leaves them to die I think it is going to be the biggest loss of the war thus far and as bad as morale supposedly is - this will crush it further and make Putin look helpless and weak.

I don't think he can withstand such a loss from a morale / PR standpoint at this time. He needs a victory and he has an opportunity to stand up and show he absolutely is not bluffing just like he said. And he does that by nuking the attacking Ukrainian forces.

If I am wrong about that - and Putin allows those men to be slaughtered - all it does is put his back further against the wall and make any probable nuclear response even worse in the future - think using a few tactical nukes now versus nuking Poland or Kyiv later for example.

I really hate to say this - but unless Putin has some kind of near instant plan for a huge conventional attack to save those guys - that war is about to get way worse.
 
Last edited:

Squid

Veteran Member
Samuel Ramani
@SamRamani2

Sergei Karaganov says that he is 99% sure that the U.S. will not retaliate if Russia launched a nuclear strike on a NATO country that supports Ukraine

Karaganov's scenario appears to be in relation to Poland, as he says it would take a "madman" in the White House who "hates America" to sacrifice Boston for Poznan Karaganov has made similar claims in the past about Article 5 of NATO having little practical value

By retaliation, he is referring explicitly to a nuclear strike-back
Poland has said that NATO will respond conventionally to a nuclear strike from Russia on Ukraine but a strike on NATO territory would presumably allow for a nuclear response from the U.S.

7:06 AM · Sep 30, 2022
·Twitter Web App
What a moronic claim.

Any person or analyst who makes any claim based on rational behavior of this administration is smoking crack.

We don’t know anything about what these clowns are willing to break or who they are willing to sacrifice. They only certainty is they will shove buckets of money into their own pockets.
 

kochevnik

Senior Member
Would also like to point out - somewhat obviously - that now that most of the world is pretty convinced the Nord Stream attacks were the work of the West (whether USA Poland or whoever is mostly unimportant from the Russian standpoint) that means that attacks on energy infrastructure are now going to be both legitimate and likely moves going forward.

Putin has said many times that this is a HYBRID war going on and thus far the Russians have not flexed their abilities on several fronts.

I also see that changing going forward - Putin would have to be a complete idiot not to retaliate in some way to what was done on NS 1 & 2

So look for pipelines, undersea cables and various other infrastructure attacks to accelerate on all sides.

Europe of course is going to the epicenter of all this. Gas prices there are now 10 times what they are at henry hub in New York. Because most energy supplies are somewhat fungible (easily transported and substitued for AT A HIGHER PRICE) I think u are going to see coal oil gas electricity and all the various forms of energy that keep modern civ functioning probably skyrocket worldwide over the next year or two.

Early on in this war - the Russian Deputy PM and Reuters both surmised that oil would go over $300 a barrel if sanctions stopped Russian transport of energy supplies to Europe.

That's probably $15 to $20 a gallon gas here in the USA.

And before u laugh - most of us are old enough here to remember what happened to oil prices from 1973 on - I told my son this summer that I expect this is a sort of repeat of those events from an energy standpoint and that - at that time - gas prices basically quadrupled almost overnight.

So yeah - a 4 bagger from $5 a gallon gasoline prices ?

Absolutely on the table right now.

Imagine Russia uses tactical nukes and Biden and company decide to take out large portions of the Russian crude oil infrastructure using conventional weapons. That move would be one of the most obvious of all - few casualties and massive hurt on Russia for a long time to come.
 
Last edited:

Squid

Veteran Member
Yeah, almost like it was a script written for Hollywood!

the same guy that pushed the warp speed vax as “his” that broke down normality around the world in just a year or two, and turned we don’t know how many into genetically modified organisms will now be the solution to our next problem. Okie dokie.
Thank heavens we have Brandon Pelosi and Schumer to save us all….

Bbbbwwwwaaaaa
Yep I remember when Brandon came into office he totally reversed course on the whole vax thing. Then your demo friends came in to protect military and healthcare workers that didn’t want the vax…

Bbbwwwaaaa

Tell Soro’s we say hey..
 

onetimer

Veteran Member
Are the Territoial Defence Units different than the "volunteer" units each region in Russia is supposed to be standing up and sending to the Ukraine?
The only difference is these “reservists” are what didn’t make the cut for the current round of mobilization, ouch. They are digging deep into their spreadsheets to try and fill holes. Another question is why would they need them at all? They are preparing, but for what, time will tell?
 

jward

passin' thru
Samuel Ramani
@SamRamani2

BREAKING: The U.S. imposes sanctions on companies from Belarus, Armenia and China for supporting the Russian military
Defence procurement firm Radioavtomatika is being targeted by U.S. sanctions China's Sinno Electronics and Armenia's Taco LLC were suppliers to this Russian company

10:01 AM · Sep 30, 2022
·Twitter Web App
 

jward

passin' thru
Faytuks News Δ
@Faytuks
46m

BREAKING: This is the largest attempted annexation in Europe by force since WW2, NATO secretary general says
 

jward

passin' thru
Why not join NATO? At this point, the Ukrainian’s military force is being led, armed, fed, and equipped by NATO….might as well have the fudge if you are eating a Sunday!
A country at war cannot be admitted...

But I would like to see him join; nato is fighting to the last ukranian, and thinking this new found way to wage proxy wars is cost free- other than the peasants (our!) money - if they had some actual skin in the game perhaps they'd stop trying to enflame the situation at every turn and look for diplomatic roads to settlement.
 

Tristan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Not a good sign

@Felix_Nuno picked up that Territorial Defense Forces are being stood up in St-Petersburg. Either the mobilization is going so poorly that they're working on extra ways to throw people into Ukraine, or they're expecting this conflict to widen. twlink

St. Petersburg deputy military commissar: A and B class reservists being called up for mobilization but *territorial defence units being formed* too and will be manned with B and even C class reservists.
View: https://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/status/1575804278127480832?s=20&t=Ut-BS-g9uHSNgUYKp3XveQ


"Expecting the conflict to widen" for $500,000, Alex.
 

raven

TB Fanatic
A country at war cannot be admitted...

But I would like to see him join; nato is fighting to the last ukranian, and thinking this new found way to wage proxy wars is cost free- other than the peasants (our!) money - if they had some actual skin in the game perhaps they'd stop trying to enflame the situation at every turn and look for diplomatic roads to settlement.
Being at war won't stop them - they will just use the Jedi Handwave
 

kochevnik

Senior Member
Vox Day


Welcoming the New Russians​

Novorussia is Russia again. The contrast between Putin’s actual speech and the way the Western media described it while providing only “extracts” that nevertheless fail to make the case is really all you need to read to understand who the good guys are and who the satan-worshipping evil guys are.
Vladimir Putin has annexed four Ukrainian regions to Russia in a blistering Kremlin speech in which he vowed to ‘smash’ the West and liberate the world, raising fears he is gearing up to deploy Moscow’s huge nuclear arsenal.
The Russian despot, speaking in front of his cronies in Moscow, declared that ‘millions of people’ had ‘opted’ to become vassals of Russia in sham referendums – declaring them to be ‘are our people, forever,’ to a standing ovation in the Kremlin’s grand Georgian Hall.
He then turned on the West, delivering screed in which he recalled the horrors of both world wars, Korea, and Vietnam; made homophobic jibes, ranted about sex changes, and accused westerners of being ‘Satanists’; vowed ‘Western hegemony will be smashed’ and spoke of Russia’s ‘destiny’ to liberate the world.
He even suggested that the US had set a ‘precedent’ for using nuclear weapons in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, hinting that he could be considering his own atomic strike – either against Ukraine or its allies.
Reaction was swift. President Zelensky, who has vowed never to respect the annexation, declared that Ukraine will officially apply to join NATO and will never negotiate with Russia so long as Putin is in power. Prime Minister Liz Truss said Britain ‘will ensure [Putin] loses this illegal war. The EU said it ‘unequivocally condemns’ the annexation. Boris Johnson, former Prime Minister who became an iconic figure to Ukraine, branded Putin’s speech a ‘disgrace’ and vowed the UK will stand with Ukraine ‘without flinching until their country is whole and free.’
In other words, if these US lapdogs are to be taken seriously, Russia will end up ruling the entire European continent, plus Great Britain and Ireland. Fortunately, we all know these are not serious people; Ukraine will be conquered entirely if its neocon government does not surrender, Britain couldn’t defeat the Catholics in Northern Ireland much less the Russians, the EU had no problem with the annexation of Serbian territory, and Boris Johnson is a ticket-taking bozo who couldn’t keep his job despite being elected with a massive majority.
Remember, this is the same media that tells us Kiev is winning a war against Russia, which of course is why Zelensky is desperately attempting to speed up its application to NATO even though the USA has zero intention of committing any of its troops to the NATO-Russian war. Because, obviously, running screaming for help is what people who are winning do, right?
Now, read President Putin’s actual words. It’s not fully translated yet, but I’ll provide a link to the full text when it’s available.

In 1991, in Belovezhskaya, without asking the will of ordinary citizens, representatives of then-party elites decided to break the USSR and people were divorced from their homeland. This was a living rupture, dismembered our people’s community, and turned into a national catastrophe. As when – after the revolution – the borders of the Union Republics were cut behind the scenes, so the last leaders of the Soviet Union, contrary to the direct will of most people in the 1991 referendum, ruined our great country.
I admit that they did not even fully understand what they were doing and what consequences it would inevitably lead to in the end. But this is no longer important. There is no Soviet Union, the past cannot be returned. And Russia does not need this today, we do not strive for this. But there is nothing stronger than the determination of millions of people who, in their culture, faith, traditions, language, consider themselves part of Russia, whose ancestors have lived in a single state for centuries. There is nothing stronger than the determination of these people to return to their true, historical Fatherland.
For eight long years, people in Donbass were subjected to genocide, shelling and blockade, and in Kherson and Zaporozhye they tried to criminally increase hatred of Russia, for everything Russian. Now, during the referenda, the Kiev regime threatened reprisals, death for school teachers, women working in election commissions, intimidated millions of people who came to express their will with repression. But the unbroken people of Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson said their word.
I want the Kiev authorities and their real owners in the West to hear me, so that everyone remembers this: people living in Lugansk and Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporozhye become our citizens forever….
Western countries have been insisting for centuries that they bear freedom and democracy for other nations. Everything is exactly the opposite: instead of democracy – suppression and exploitation; instead of freedom – enslavement and violence. The whole unipolar world order is inherently anti-democratic and not free, it is deceiving and hypocritical throughout.
The USA – the only country in the world that twice used nuclear weapons, destroying the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. And, by the way, set a precedent. Let me remind you that the United States, together with the British, turned Dresden, Hamburg, Cologne and many other German cities into ruins without any military necessity during World War II. And this was done demonstratively, without any, I repeat, military necessity. There was only one goal: just as in the case of nuclear bombing in Japan – to intimidate both our country and the whole world.
The United States left a terrible mark in the memory of the peoples of Korea and Vietnam with barbaric “carpet bombing”, the use of napalm and chemical weapons. And now, they actually occupy Germany, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and other countries, and at the same time cynically call them equal allies. Listen up! I wonder what kind of alliance is this?
It was with their destructive policies, wars, and robbery that they provoked today’s enormous surge in migration flows. Millions of people suffer deprivation, bullying, die in thousands, trying to get to the same Europe.
It’s fascinating to observe that Vladimir Putin sees and calls out the inversion. It’s clear that he understands its significance too. People can fold, spindle, and mutilate the truth all they like, but eventually the truth leaks out. The current rulers of the Neo-West are Satanists. The USA did create a precedent with its unnecessary use of atomic weapons. And whether Neo-Western hegemony is smashed or it collapses under the weight of its own internal contradictions, it will come to an end sooner or later.
NATO cannot defeat Russia anymore than Germany could defeat the USA in WWII. And if the NATO-Russian war escalates into WWIII, it is the Sino-Russian alliance that will be the winners. The problem is that just as Hitler believed he could bluster and intimidate the Allies into surrender after a series of successful bluffs, the Neocons believe they can mediacate and magic-word their way to victory over Russia, China, Iran, India, Brazil, and the rest of the world on the basis of their past successes.
The fruits of past success produce the seeds of future failure.
 

jward

passin' thru
hmm. that escaped me this mornin'
BNO News
@BNONews
2m

BREAKING: Ukraine will apply for NATO membership, President Zelensky says

marqs
@MarQs__

Does not sound like there was a coordination between Ukraine and NATO before Zelenskys request

Stoltenberg: "We support Ukraine's right to choose its own path. A decision on membership has to be taken by all 30 alli
es"

11:08 AM · Sep 30, 2022
·Twitter Web App

Replying to
@MarQs__

Of course there wasn't. This is the one thing NATO can certainly not do. Zelenskyi must know it. Hence, it's a typical Weberian "aim to the impossible to achieve what's possible".
 

somewherepress

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Would also like to point out - somewhat obviously - that now that most of the world is pretty convinced the Nord Stream attacks were the work of the West (whether USA Poland or whoever is mostly unimportant from the Russian standpoint) that means that attacks on energy infrastructure are now going to be both legitimate and likely moves going forward.

Putin has said many times that this is a HYBRID war going on and thus far the Russians have not flexed their abilities on several fronts.

I also see that changing going forward - Putin would have to be a complete idiot not to retaliate in some way to what was done on NS 1 & 2

So look for pipelines, undersea cables and various other infrastructure attacks to accelerate on all sides.

Europe of course is going to the epicenter of all this. Gas prices there are now 10 times what they are at henry hub in New York. Because most energy supplies are somewhat fungible (easily transported and substitued for AT A HIGHER PRICE) I think u are going to see coal oil gas electricity and all the various forms of energy that keep modern civ functioning probably skyrocket worldwide over the next year or two.

Early on in this war - the Russian Deputy PM and Reuters both surmised that oil would go over $300 a barrel if sanctions stopped Russian transport of energy supplies to Europe.

That's probably $15 to $20 a gallon gas here in the USA.

And before u laugh - most of us are old enough here to remember what happened to oil prices from 1973 on - I told my son this summer that I expect this is a sort of repeat of those events from an energy standpoint and that - at that time - gas prices basically quadrupled almost overnight.

So yeah - a 4 bagger from $5 a gallon gasoline prices ?

Absolutely on the table right now.

Imagine Russia uses tactical nukes and Biden and company decide to take out large portions of the Russian crude oil infrastructure using conventional weapons. That move would be one of the most obvious of all - few casualties and massive hurt on Russia for a long time to come.
Ask yourself who benefits from all of this intentionally created chaos...cuz it's certainly not the average citizen of any of the countries involved....
 
Last edited:

onetimer

Veteran Member

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?

jward

passin' thru
Being at war won't stop them - they will just use the Jedi Handwave
Yup, I assumed so- CA is already out in favour, the commie-red-rat-bastards

FLASH
@Flash_news_ua
13m

⚡️The Government of Canada supports Ukraine's application to join NATO in an accelerated manner.

This was announced by the head of the Canadian Foreign Ministry, Melanie Joly, at a press conference in Washington.
 

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
hmm. that escaped me this mornin'


marqs
@MarQs__

Does not sound like there was a coordination between Ukraine and NATO before Zelenskys request

Stoltenberg: "We support Ukraine's right to choose its own path. A decision on membership has to be taken by all 30 alli
es"

11:08 AM · Sep 30, 2022
·Twitter Web App

Replying to
@MarQs__

Of course there wasn't. This is the one thing NATO can certainly not do. Zelenskyi must know it. Hence, it's a typical Weberian "aim to the impossible to achieve what's possible".
That makes little sense. Putin just defined the conflict into Russia vs. NATO/West, with Ukraine as an enemy to be defeated. At this point, Ukraine becoming part of NATO is a logical result under Russia's own paradigm. And now that open opposition to NATO is established, NATO loses essentially nothing by bringing Ukraine into the fold, as the alliance is under threat whether they do so or not.
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
Would also like to point out - somewhat obviously - that now that most of the world is pretty convinced the Nord Stream attacks were the work of the West (whether USA Poland or whoever is mostly unimportant from the Russian standpoint) that means that attacks on energy infrastructure are now going to be both legitimate and likely moves going forward.

Putin has said many times that this is a HYBRID war going on and thus far the Russians have not flexed their abilities on several fronts.

I also see that changing going forward - Putin would have to be a complete idiot not to retaliate in some way to what was done on NS 1 & 2

So look for pipelines, undersea cables and various other infrastructure attacks to accelerate on all sides.

Europe of course is going to the epicenter of all this. Gas prices there are now 10 times what they are at henry hub in New York. Because most energy supplies are somewhat fungible (easily transported and substitued for AT A HIGHER PRICE) I think u are going to see coal oil gas electricity and all the various forms of energy that keep modern civ functioning probably skyrocket worldwide over the next year or two.

Early on in this war - the Russian Deputy PM and Reuters both surmised that oil would go over $300 a barrel if sanctions stopped Russian transport of energy supplies to Europe.

That's probably $15 to $20 a gallon gas here in the USA.

And before u laugh - most of us are old enough here to remember what happened to oil prices from 1973 on - I told my son this summer that I expect this is a sort of repeat of those events from an energy standpoint and that - at that time - gas prices basically quadrupled almost overnight.

So yeah - a 4 bagger from $5 a gallon gasoline prices ?

Absolutely on the table right now.

Imagine Russia uses tactical nukes and Biden and company decide to take out large portions of the Russian crude oil infrastructure using conventional weapons. That move would be one of the most obvious of all - few casualties and massive hurt on Russia for a long time to come.
I think I'd better stock up on some more Kerosene this weekend.

That way, at least light, and some use for heat on our kerosene stove.

Maybe also some more propane cylinders for our camp stoves.

Pretty good supply of wood--wonder now if I should have gotten that wood-burning stove. (even though I'd have to put it out on the porch--too hot for in the house).

Genny has enough fuel to keep us going (with intermittent running) for a while--to keep the foods in the freezers frozen. at least (I hope) till we can eat them...then next year.........

But then maybe ALL of this will be a moot point in a few weeks...
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
That makes little sense. Putin just defined the conflict into Russia vs. NATO/West, with Ukraine as an enemy to be defeated. At this point, Ukraine becoming part of NATO is a logical result under Russia's own paradigm. And now that open opposition to NATO is established, NATO loses essentially nothing by bringing Ukraine into the fold, as the alliance is under threat whether they do so or not.
As I recall, what started this whole mess was, Russia wanted 2 things:

1) Ethnic Russians in Ukraine to be protected (one way or another)

AND

2) Assurances that Ukraine would NEVER be allowed to join NATO --just "assurances".

The West REFUSED to give them those assurances.

And so--no more wanting NATO ICBM's planted in Ukraine 30 mins from Moscow than WE wanted USSR ICBM's planted in Cuba 30 minutes from DC--Russia decided to invade Ukraine to "protect ethnic Russians" (point 1) and "defend Russian national sovereignty" (point 2).

This has been compared to the Cuban missile crisis.

It is--but WE are the "USSR" and are saying "Hell no we won't agree not to put missiles on Cuba!"

In fact, we're DOUBLING DOWN now--"We'll show YOU! We'll just get Ukraine into NATO right now!!!"

---Which is exactly what Russia SAID they would do, and that Russia was afraid of, from the beginning.

All this is doing is proving the Russians RIGHT.
 

Truthsearch

Doom is ALWAYS 6 Months Away...
Israeli intelligence firm @ImageSatIntl has detected an “irregular presence” of Russian TU-160 & TU-95 strategic bombers deployed to Olenya Airbase. The base, on the Kola Peninsula, houses a significant number of military hardware, including tactical & strategic nuclear weapons

View: https://twitter.com/AAhronheim/status/1575893236383506432?s=20&t=BSpZRZu5Ey_ZBLTkBMNGVA

Well, that’s just GREAT!
There is nothing like NUCLEAR bombers to help descale and defuse this situation right now
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
Vox Day

This post had a link to an ACTUAL TRANSLATION of Putin's speech (part of it, anyway--author promises to upload more as finished).

If anyone here can read Russian and wants to translate it FOR us--here's the original in Russian:


For your enlightenment: (partial translation)

In 1991, in Belovezhskaya, without asking the will of ordinary citizens, representatives of then-party elites decided to break the USSR and people were divorced from their homeland. This was a living rupture, dismembered our people’s community, and turned into a national catastrophe. As when – after the revolution – the borders of the Union Republics were cut behind the scenes, so the last leaders of the Soviet Union, contrary to the direct will of most people in the 1991 referendum, ruined our great country.

I admit that they did not even fully understand what they were doing and what consequences it would inevitably lead to in the end. But this is no longer important. There is no Soviet Union, the past cannot be returned. And Russia does not need this today, we do not strive for this. But there is nothing stronger than the determination of millions of people who, in their culture, faith, traditions, language, consider themselves part of Russia, whose ancestors have lived in a single state for centuries. There is nothing stronger than the determination of these people to return to their true, historical Fatherland.

For eight long years, people in Donbass were subjected to genocide, shelling and blockade, and in Kherson and Zaporozhye they tried to criminally increase hatred of Russia, for everything Russian. Now, during the referenda, the Kiev regime threatened reprisals, death for school teachers, women working in election commissions, intimidated millions of people who came to express their will with repression. But the unbroken people of Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson said their word.

I want the Kiev authorities and their real owners in the West to hear me, so that everyone remembers this: people living in Lugansk and Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporozhye become our citizens forever….

Western countries have been insisting for centuries that they bear freedom and democracy for other nations. Everything is exactly the opposite: instead of democracy – suppression and exploitation; instead of freedom – enslavement and violence. The whole unipolar world order is inherently anti-democratic and not free, it is deceiving and hypocritical throughout.

The USA – the only country in the world that twice used nuclear weapons, destroying the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. And, by the way, set a precedent. Let me remind you that the United States, together with the British, turned Dresden, Hamburg, Cologne and many other German cities into ruins without any military necessity during World War II. And this was done demonstratively, without any, I repeat, military necessity. There was only one goal: just as in the case of nuclear bombing in Japan – to intimidate both our country and the whole world.

The United States left a terrible mark in the memory of the peoples of Korea and Vietnam with barbaric “carpet bombing”, the use of napalm and chemical weapons. And now, they actually occupy Germany, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and other countries, and at the same time cynically call them equal allies. Listen up! I wonder what kind of alliance is this?

It was with their destructive policies, wars, and robbery that they provoked today’s enormous surge in migration flows. Millions of people suffer deprivation, bullying, die in thousands, trying to get to the same Europe.

-------tbc
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
Vox Day

Please DO post updates with translations of the REST of his speech--this is the best transcript of it I've seen yet.
 

Tristan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
All the analysis pro/con, we did it, they did it first, etc. at this point has become nearly moot.

The Psychopaths and Sociopaths in charge appear to have decided that War is the answer. Much speculation, but regardless of what the actual question is, apparently War is the answer.

What form it will take ultimately, I don't know.

Perhaps they're just saber-rattling at a new order of magnitude, but it's equally likely they aren't.

If you've got a niggling feeling there's something you need to get done, well, get-r-done.

Those that haven't watched Pastor Joe's vid may want to review his take:


(Great Job, Pastor Joe. Blessings on you and your Tribe.)

Best to everyone.
 

onetimer

Veteran Member
Well, that’s just GREAT!
There is nothing like NUCLEAR bombers to help descale and defuse this situation right now
They think they were moved from Engle's airbase.

Per the Jpost article "Engels air base is home to Russia’s only strategic bombers stationed near Ukraine and is the home base for the 121rst Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment (121 TBAP) that flies the TU-160s and TU-95.

According to satellite images taken by the firm, four TU-160s were detected on August 21rst and three TU-95s were detected on September 25th. There were no strategic bombers present at the airbase on August 12th."

1664560756815.png

1664560809522.png

 

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
I know, I know. Putin's just trying to protect all those ethnic Germans in Czechoslovakia. I'm sorry I mean, in Ukraine. Oh, dammit, ethnic Russians in Ukraine, right. Fig leaves can be very confusing.

Um, the reality is that NATO countries can hit Russia without ICBM's, and hence placing them there is not all that big an advantage. Even placing SRBM's on Russia's borders is not that big of an advantage, but only because all of Europe is relatively nearby, and the missiles already emplaced there aren't going anywhere. The utility and threat of ICBM's is really a universe that belongs almost exclusively to the USA, Russia, and China.

Placing troops and/or other quick-reaction facilities sure blunts conventional westward invasion, though. Russsia really hates that, but likes to play up the missile angle.

So, when NATO expands, what Russia is really worried about is maybe an eastern vector of invasion. or defense of a western vector I actually don't blame them for this concern at all, because I would be just as concerned. But there is a difference between being concerned and making ultimatums about who can or can not join NATO. But all of that is debatable history. Putin just turned the page on that today.

See, Ukraine was kept out of the alliance because Russia said they would consider it an enemy act, tantamount to war, or perhaps actually war in fact. Putin just set us in conflict with his speech and his actions, so the threat holding everything back just evaporated. So Ukraine has nothing to lose to ask for membership, and NATO now has little reason to say no, now that the threat has become a reality, even without Ukraine having been brought into the fold.

No matter what history brought us to this point, Putin flipped the switches that changed the paradigm, destroyed whatever status quo we had left to work with.

Don't get me wrong, both sides could have stood to be a little less paranoid. And NATO is not lily-white in all of this, because in a way it was built to allow member-states to vary from the heart of the alliance, which is to prevent the spread of communism in Europe and North America. NATO still nominally operates under that desire, but individual members have deviated greatly from that, though the pendulum is beginning to swing back. So that lapse lead to an opening for Russia to exploit in their goals, while claiming to be the victim.
 
Last edited:

onetimer

Veteran Member
I know, I know. Putin's just trying to protect all those ethnic Germans in Czechoslovakia. I'm sorry I mean, in Ukraine. Oh, dammit, ethnic Russians in Ukraine, right. Fig leaves can be very confusing.

Um, the reality is that NATO countries can hit Russia without ICBM's, and hence placing them there is not all that a big an advantage. Even placing SRBM's on Russia's borders is not that big of an advantage, but only because all of Europe is relatively nearby, and the missiles already emplaced there aren't going anywhere. The utility and threat of ICBM's is really a universe that belongs almost exclusively to the USA, Russia, and China.

Placing troops and/or other quick-reaction facilities sure blunts conventional westward invasion, though. Russsia really hates that, but likes to play up the missile angle.

So, when NATO expands, what Russia is really worried about is maybe an eastern vector of invasion. I actually don't blame them for this concern at all, because I would be just as concerned. But there is a difference between being concerned and making ultimatums about who can or can not join NATO. But all of that is debatable history. Putin just turned the page on that today.

See, Ukraine was kept out of the alliance because Russia said they would consider it an enemy act, tantamount to war, or perhaps actually war in fact. Putin just set us in conflict with his speech and his actions, so the threat holding everything back just evaporated. So Ukraine has nothing to lose to ask for membership, and NATO now has little reason to say no, now that the threat has become a reality, even without Ukraine having been brought into the fold.

No matter what history brought us to this point, Putin flipped the switches that changed the paradigm, destroyed whatever status quo we had left to work with.

Don't get me wrong, both sides could have stood to be a little less paranoid. And NATO is not lily-white in all of this, because in a way it was built to allow member-states to vary from the heart of the alliance, which is to prevent the spread of communism in Europe and North America. NATO still nominally operates under that desire, but individual members have deviated greatly from that, though the pendulum is beginning to swing back. So that lapse lead to an opening for Russia to exploit in their goals, while claiming to be the victim.
:applaud:Well said
 
Top