ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
You know, if these are truly Russian soldiers that were captured, they appear very ill equipped. They don't have all the gear our US Soldiers are equipped with. They are rather thin looking young men compared to our US forces who are usually good sized guys. They don't look like they could endure a long lasting fight. They also appear very defeated within their spirits.

Over the last couple of months I've been wondering how well fed and housed the Russian troops have been while bivouacking outdoors in winter. Forward deploying large military forces requires a very robust logistics train. Something the Russians are not famous for.

Many of these troops may be cold, hungry, sick, and demoralized before the first shots are fired.

Once the shooting actually starts, these forces may quickly surrender hoping to at least get a square meal and a warm bed.
 

WalknTrot

Veteran Member
I guess those Ukrain officials handing out those AK's to the citizens blows the anti 2nd Amendment haters right out of the water!! I guess that answers the question?? Why do you need a battle rifle and a 30 round magazine?
Not to derail (hopefully just food for thought) but I'm thinking that a few (cognizant) wanna-be tyrants in this country are digesting the effectiveness of rag-tag but determined Ukrainian citizens as we speak - in relation to their own domestic ambitions.
 

Squid

Veteran Member
No no no. I'm telling you why Russian soldiers are so ill equipped, malnourished, beaten, and uninformed. This also isn't something new coming to light of this conflict. I've seen them first hand, and I've seen the behavior first hand. They'd scale apple trees and gorge themselves on tiny green spring apples and shit themselves while they eat. I've seen them trade AK's and ammo for bread. I've seen them raise feral hogs in their barracks to supplement their non-existing rations. If you google that term, you'll find tons of sites and books describing this tradition.
Also, your third sentence there is... a bit incoherent. Don't even know what you're trying to say there.

Vg2MWwL.jpeg
There are lots of reports that Putin is sending in 2nd stringers and the a team is just waiting for the call-up. I wonder if what we are seeing is what the Russian military is a mix. Some highly trained highly skilled special operators and conscripts who may not have decent training and second hand equipment.

There is a vast numerical difference between the US Dod spending and Russian defense spend and its all not just inflated hammer

Sorry for confusion there have been posts about maltreartment of Russians by Ukrainians as justification for invasion. Guess Russian government mistreating their own people is seemingly par for the course, and increasing in the west as well.
 

Capt. Eddie

Veteran Member
We are watching a script I believe and Putin is playing his part. The world's economic and financial system is at an end and they need their global 'reset'. When it all falls apart people over here will blame Putin and Russia. Russia and China and their axis will blame the U.S. with it's hegemony and excessive money printing and all the governments of the world will have their external boogeyman to blame so their population isn't upset with them.

Fully possible unfortunately that there may be a nudet somewhere to make it scary enough to give credence to the threat and people are going to die for the facade just like they are doing right now in the Ukraine. I believe they are committed to both a script and a timeline here so please be prepped up for even an extended period of time.

Not currently worried about a full nuclear exchange because as I said I think this is all scripted but it's entirely possible and probably will have something not go according to plan and have unintended consequences. The end game of all this is to have people so incredibly frightened, sick and demoralized that they accept the plans that they have for us after this is done.

Welcome to the global gulag citizens of Slavelandia.
I agree with your entire thesis 1000% Hfcomms.
 

vector7

Dot Collector
3rd most corrupt nation on earth?!
Home of Burisma and Crowdstrike
View: https://twitter.com/ZupancicJareen/status/1497933865490522118?t=XPEsiyqoAz6xYlO-qoT0YQ&s=19
Context from a U.S. official here in #Poland -there are now between 9,000 and 10,000 US troops in Poland, with the last of the troops who were deployed by Pres Biden arriving today.
I think that assessment is incorrect. From what I'm hearing from 2nd hand sources we have boots on the ground.
So NBC is reporting that Ukrainians are tearing down road signs so russians won't know where to go, do they not have GPS like the rest of the world?
They do, and if you tear up enough road signs, and then release someone with a HackRF and a few additional pieces of equipment, you can simulate the signals for the area needed to "remap" them into all different areas. Do that in enough places and you will have the red team in chaos. Do that along side of a few more HackRF or better (USRP) units and you can simulate a whole fictitious battlefield and have them seeing all sorts of ghosts and events.
Monekys' operating a PANTSIR should be able to takedown TB2s. What? What is Russia doing.
I'm really starting to wonder just how many thousands of unseen western assets are really there on the ground scrambling and even more above tracking and coordinating targets for the Ukraines.
 
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Marthanoir

TB Fanatic
Thread drift alert.
Well Trudeau is not needed here we have enough woke well meaning fascists we are full up. And I took french in high school its a very confusing language so we don’t need another language on the atm instruction page.

We would absolutely love the rest of Canada that is tired of sending money to corrupt central state, you can become part of the US and send your money to a new corrupt central state.

So surry about that, eh!

:p

Trudi has feck all to do with Ireland either , I can barely manage English we don't wan't to be learning French :lol:
 
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Vegas321

Live free and survive
You know, if these are truly Russian soldiers that were captured, they appear very ill equipped. They don't have all the gear our US Soldiers are equipped with. They are rather thin looking young men compared to our US forces who are usually good sized guys. They don't look like they could endure a long lasting fight. They also appear very defeated within their spirits.

The only thing i don't like about that video of interviewing "Russian" soldiers. I think i could be a crime to do that.
If i was leadership of the Ukrainian forces. I would put a stop to that.
 

Josie

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Rush used to say there is no such thing as an independent, simply because they do lean one way or the other and will vote one way or the other. Your statement pretty much proves his point. You make a statement similiar to stating you are independent, then go on to say which way you lean.
I disagree. While independent and objective are close, they are not the same in meaning. I saw no leaning in Artifically's post. What do I see on this board is mainly anti-Russian sympathies. A lot of us formed their opinions back during the Cold War, where we were taught from a young age to fear and hate anything from the evil U.S.S.R. We feared them dropping an atomic bomb on us, to the point that most old buildings had fallout shelters in their basements, and we were instructed to take cover from that blinding flash of light, under our desks. Old beliefs, like old habits, are hard to break. Remember, we were also taught that anything the U.S. did was good. How has that played out?

I used to be one of those people. I used to fear and hate all things Russian. But if the last fifteen years has taught me anything, it's how much I have been lied to and manipulated. I've realized that most everything I had been taught was of question because there most definitely are three sides to every story...player 1's side...player 2's side...and then the truth which is somewhere in between. Early on, I felt that there definitely was a lot more to this situation than I was being told by our dear leaders and their partners in crime, the media. So, I am leaning more towards what Artificially stated than the apparently majority on this board. Something about this whole situation just doesn't sit right with me. JMHO/YMMV
 

Raggedyman

Res ipsa loquitur
We are watching a script I believe and Putin is playing his part. The world's economic and financial system is at an end and they need their global 'reset'. When it all falls apart people over here will blame Putin and Russia. Russia and China and their axis will blame the U.S. with it's hegemony and excessive money printing and all the governments of the world will have their external boogeyman to blame so their population isn't upset with them.

I agree with your entire thesis 1000% Hfcomms.


SECONDED - 1000% SPOT ON ACCURATE
 

Josie

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Since the Ukrainians are able to stop the Russian advance . . .
Why do we need NATO?
No need to spend all that money.

Just let the US keep a stable full of nukes as a deterrent.
And then Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania can pay Ukraine for Protection

Seriously, the whole point of NATO was to prevent Russia from running over Europe.
Ukraine has not had the assistance of any of NATOs advanced military capability
and yet Uke civilians are joking it up with broke down Russia tankers begging for fuel and food.

Yet another reason I am having trouble believing any of this. Do you honestly believe that Russian troops would allow Ukrainians to laugh at their hunger or empty fuel tanks without doing something about it? If this report is true, then this "invasion" is less dangerous than the invasion at our southern border.

Once again...JMHO
 

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
One of the stupidest things someone in a command position can do is crow on social media about the victory before the war is even over. Never, ever underestimate your enemy.
There was no crowing about victory. It was a message saying that they fought, and continue to fight, despite the expectations of the rest of the world.

For the Ukrainians that can see the message, it is a pep talk. For the rest of the planet, it's a warning that it may not be as easy as some of them planned, nor as certain.
 
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Lone Eagle Woman

Veteran Member
There was a thread on Free Republic that said that Putin in secret was fuming on how this war was going so disastrous for Russia. And also because of the costs each day that it is costing Russia He thought it would be over in no time. Well, this is reality and how often the people in power rather here in the U.S., in Russia, in Europe, or elsewhere do Not Not have their head in reality. If this continues Not to go well in Russia's favor, expect Putin to try to find a way out where he can save face. Saving face and looking like a hero is a big thing to all of these power elites and for their egos.
 

Squid

Veteran Member
I think a NATO no fly over Ukraine territory is imminent "we must protect NATO allies as they aid Ukraine"
Not likely. A Nato no fly zone would create an obvious Nato vs Russian shoot down. Nato wants all the fighting to stay contained in Ukraine. The other obvious part is direct Nato vs Russian engagement could easily escalate to the use of nuclear weapons and nobody including Klaus and company can manage events after Russia, China or US goes to that escalation.
 

Greenspode

Veteran Member
Folks, I think we're going right to the brink (if we're not there already).

Whatever is actually going on in Ukraine, it's so critical for the Russians that they're willing to risk nuclear war.

Think about that.
I believe one notable commentator on world events referred to it as the "precipice". Indeed, we seem to be headed there.
 
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ShadowMan

Designated Grumpy Old Fart
And this is an excellent example why every citizen MUST HAVE the right to keep and bare arms. What we're now seeing in Ukraine with over 10,000 arms being distributed to civilians is essentially putting a sniper in EVERY WINDOW the Russians face. Before they were only facing the muzzles of Ukraine's military. Now they are facing muzzles from EVERY UKRAINIAN! Every window, every bush, every "blade of grass" is a potential threat. That totally paints a different picture for the invaders.

I hope and pray Putin gets a great big nasty BLOODY NOSE from this stupid maneuver. AND....would love it even more if Ukraine gains back the two eastern regions and Crimea by the time all this is over. :eleph:

AND....the cherry on top would be Ukraine joining NATO!! Now that would be a MAJOR VICTORY!! :chg: :sal:
 

TheDoberman

Veteran Member
The U.S. and Europe have effectively made economic situation of Russia exactly like the North Koreans. Maybe even worse. At this point only one of three outcomes could come of this.

Option 1: Putin takes a bite out of lead and steal by himself or another in his government.

Option 2: Russia turns the screws on China and convinces them to move on Taiwan and maybe other players as well. Which may be one of Xi's only options to save his own power because I am increasingly convinced the Chinese economy is rapidly crumbling. Also believe Xi is starting to lose power in his party and may not get reelected unless he has some massive victory he can stand behind.

Option 3: Putin and Russia will take the world down with them and start a nuclear conflict.

It seems like those are the only options folks. They can't bend the will of the Ukrainians and will lose this conflict.
 

KFhunter

Veteran Member
Not likely. A Nato no fly zone would create an obvious Nato vs Russian shoot down. Nato wants all the fighting to stay contained in Ukraine. The other obvious part is direct Nato vs Russian engagement could easily escalate to the use of nuclear weapons and nobody including Klaus and company can manage events after Russia, China or US goes to that escalation.

Meh, I think the nuclear sabre rattling is overblown.

Russia doesn't want to eat Nukes from all NATO countries all at once. It reeks of desperation to threaten nukes
 

OldArcher

Has No Life - Lives on TB
And this is an excellent example why every citizen MUST HAVE the right to keep and bare arms. What we're now seeing in Ukraine with over 10,000 arms being distributed to civilians is essentially putting a sniper in EVERY WINDOW the Russians face. Before they were only facing the muzzles of Ukraine's military. Now they are facing muzzles from EVERY UKRAINIAN! Every window, every bush, every "blade of grass" is a potential threat. That totally paints a different picture for the invaders.

I hope and pray Putin gets a great big nasty BLOODY NOSE from this stupid maneuver. AND....would love it even more if Ukraine gains back the two eastern regions and Crimea by the time all this is over. :eleph: :sal: :chg:

Careful there, ShadowMan! You’re might give old farts a good name!

All the Best, Sir, to You and Yours!

OA
 

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
Not to derail (hopefully just food for thought) but I'm thinking that a few (cognizant) wanna-be tyrants in this country are digesting the effectiveness of rag-tag but determined Ukrainian citizens as we speak - in relation to their own domestic ambitions.

I hope they draw the right conclusions. Then back the hell off.
 
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onetimer

Veteran Member
:)
#Georgian sailors refused to refuel the Russian ship The flashmob is very interesting. Every #Russian ship should hear this phrase anywhere in the world.
Artem Russakovskii @ArtemR · 23m

BWAHAHA!!

For those who don't speak Russian, at the end, the Russian ship complains that they're about to run out of fuel one more time, and
the Georgians tell them to break out the ores and start rowing.

 

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
Everyone needs to remember this is only a few days old! The blitz of Poland in WWII took almost 6 weeks and that was Germany and the Soviets attacking from both sides! Let’s hope for a truce soon. I fear as the Russian soldiers get hardened the civilian population will suffer more than to date.
That goes both ways.
 

Hfcomms

EN66iq
EU Sanctions On Russia Equal "Suicide By Cop"

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, 'n Guns blog,

The EU has unveiled its first tranche of economic sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. EU leadership looks even more angry about this outcome than US leadership does. Here’s the article covering this tangled mess by Sputnik News.

We know that the EU is very dependent on Russian energy and the existing sanctions have hampered EU-Russian trade for years now. Europe is incredibly vulnerable here to any form of supply/demand shocks as their financial system teeters on the edge of the abyss.

There is no solidarity between the US and the EU on these matters, as I’ve pointed out in post after post here. So, the question now is, if Europe is targeting Russian energy exports and the ability of EU banks to do business to buy Russian gas and other export commodities why would they pick this fight?

The answer must be that this is exactly what they wanted in the first place.

In the US we call this ‘suicide by cop,’ which is exactly how I framed it when asked by Sputnik for my thoughts on the subject this morning. I was asked on Monday before Putin’s intervention in Ukraine, to answer the following questions. Events moved beyond them, obviously, but I publish them here anyway because they are still of some value. {current editorial comments in brackets}

According to recent research, US liquefied natural gas export capacity will be the world’s largest by the end of 2022. Could it be that part of the whole game around Ukraine was about the US petroleum sector benefitting from the current standoff in Ukraine?


Of course. That is a sub-plot in this very complicated story. There are many factors that went into this standoff over Ukraine, which Russia is now accelerating towards an end-game state {boy howdy was that an understatement 12 hours later}. LNG exports from the US is certainly one of them, but I think the bigger issues concern the future of NATO, the security architecture of Europe and who controls it.
I see this as much as a fight between the US/UK and the EU over security as much as it is about the US’s long-standing antipathy to Russian energy exports. These issues are, of course, all intertwined.
Is the current political battle over Ukraine just a pretext for the US to earn money via the energy sector, increasing supplies?

No, it isn’t. It’s much deeper and nuanced than that. There are future weapons contracts for US and UK military contractors at stake here, as well as France’s desires to become a major player in European arms sales.
Russia, I believe, is being used as a bogeyman to advance internal European and ‘Anglo’ political agendas having more to do with shifts in foreign policy focus than just the ‘follow the money’ angle here. ‘Following the energy and arms money’ is an important consideration but I think they are now downstream of a much different security landscape in Europe by 2030.
The European Union is looking for ways to assert its independence from Washington D.C. Downing St. is pushing everyone into conflict for its own selfish and historical reasons, clinging to outdated political theories about controlling the ‘World Island’ and driving a wedge between Russia and China, which is achieving the exact opposite result.
How likely is it that the US might now try to establish control over transit routes going through Ukraine? Will the “Russian invasion” narrative be used as a pretext for doing so?

The transit routes through Ukraine in the minds of the Russian leadership fully depreciated assets that they unfortunately still continue to subsidize. Putin mentioned the cost to subsidizing a hostile regime in Kiev during his speech announcing the recognition of the Donbass, $250 billion over 30 years.
If the US wants control over those transit routes, that’s fine. Russia will happily shut off the gas through them, since it costs Gazprom money to ship gas through them at this point. Putin has ordered Gazprom to keep those pipelines filled as a fig leaf to Europe who has continually bitten his hand.
I expect he won’t care to re-up the transit contract with Ukraine when it expires in December 2024.
So, if DC wants this, Putin will oblige and then stop transit all together, citing conflicts with Ukraine.
To what extent can the US indeed provide energy security for Europe by supplying resources?

The total US LNG output according to the EIA for 2022 is 11.5 bcf per day, which is 115 bcm per year, or roughly the capacities of Nordstream 1 and 2 combined.
Is there 55 bcm of spare capacity (the size of NS2) in the US system to feed a new market in Europe? No, not with demand rising at more than 6% annually and accelerating as the world comes out of COVID-19 lockdowns.
The demand for European LNG is so high that US and Russian suppliers both have massive market opportunities there. So, this isn’t about the money, in the end. With most of Europe ending its COVID-19 restrictions in a desperate attempt to stave off political unrest, demand is only going to rise further.
Moreover, US LNG is far more expensive than Russian piped gas. This is simply a fact. And with the Biden administration working with Davos to lean on banks to retard investment into new oil and gas projects, long-term supply of energy to Europe from the US is limited anyway.
US exports will go to where the bid is the highest and with Europe’s terrible future prospects, massive debt overhang and lack of economic dynamism they will not be capable of outbidding other global customers for gas. That’s been the reason for the insane prices in Europe this winter, competition for limited gas supplies driving prices up, despite rising global capacity.
Can Europe survive without Russian energy supplies, if they were to be disrupted now due to the standoff and sanctions?

No. It simply is not possible especially with Germany shutting down perfectly good nuclear reactors this year. The big winner will actually be France in the short term who can sell excess electricity capacity to Germany for outrageous prices thanks to its massive nuclear footprint.
What’s happening now is Germany going along with the political flow, slowing the certification of Nordstream2 in the hope that something can be done to keep the worst-case situation unfolding in Ukraine.
It’s too early to tell how violent things will get in the Donbass {very, apparently}, but it’s possible Russia’s recognition of the Donbass inspires other regions to declare their independence, pushing the UAF back towards Kiev. {all it will take is Russia’s full blow invasion of the country} Politically, the Germans will eventually have to make a choice. Russia and independence themselves or continued subordination to D.C.

{So far Germany has chosen poorly. This speaks to how surprised even Europe was by the size and scale of Putin’s move into Ukraine was. The reactions today by the EU and NATO scream that Putin promised them he wouldn’t do this and he did is anyway. Knowing Putin, the EU likely broke some other backroom deal.}
Is the fate of Nord Stream 2 at risk yet again amid recent developments?

Not likely. {this didn’t age well. It’s possible now that NS2 is abandoned by Russia in retaliation for NATO and EU stupidity.} The nomination of former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder to the board of Gazprom tells me that this is his reward for shepherding the project to this point and its eventual completion.
That said, Russia’s trade surplus is so high that they hold the cards on trade. No matter what sanctions packages are put in place, if the world wants what Russia sells, which goes far beyond oil and gas, they will eventually have to deal with Russia on her terms, not theirs.
For example, the recent announcement by China and Russia to expand gas sales by another 10 bcm per year and settle the trade in euros can easily be amended if the EU oversteps here with sanctions over Ukraine.
I’m sure if the EU tries to change the terms of the existing contracts currently settled in euros thanks to unilaterally imposed sanctions Russia will simply say, that’s fine, pay us in Rubles. And then let’s watch to see what happens after that.
The lesson here is that balance sheets matter. Russia’s is clean, with low debt, high reserves, a trade and current account surplus and plenty of policy room for its central bank to respond to sanctions. Sanctions against her targeting the ruble under these conditions are toothless, in fact, more toothless now than in 2014.
Is LNG a viable alternative to less expensive Russian gas speeding over to European countries?

As a stop gap, anything is viable. The LNG tanker market is a mess right now but that should revert back to normal soon. When you see current conditions in a market like that of LNG carriers, negative charter day-rates, it isn’t sustainable, any more than oil pricing in May 2020 going negative.
So, it’s only a viable alternative for a certain amount of time. In the long run, high energy prices for Europe are simply a drain on potential growth, or in Europe’s case, recovery. Absent a massive spending blitz by the EU, which it will never agree on in any reasonable time frame, Europe’s energy future without Nordstream 2 and the now canceled East Med pipeline from Israel, is bleak.

The setup now is for a complete collapse of European capital markets as the Fed moves to raise interest rates in March, further putting stress on the euro and Europe’s ability to pay for its import needs.
What’s clear from my responses to Sputnik and even from their questions is that neither side of this exchange expected the type of military move by Putin when these questions were formulated and responded to.
But much of the framework of these questions is still in place. The EU is in serious trouble.
Now that things have progressed in Ukraine far beyond what everyone thought, including many members of the political brass in the EU, the question now is whether the sanctions war will escalate from here.
And that’s where my ‘suicide by cop’ analogy is relevant:
[Sputnik asks about Europe’s energy security]

It all comes down to whether the EU decides to destroy its economy by doing what we Americans call ‘suicide by cop.’ That’s where someone wants to die and picks a fight with a policeman in order to get the cop to shoot him.
Europe is staring at a complete collapse of its economy if they sanction Russia’s energy sector and shut down her ability to do business with their banks. The question no one is asking is, “Did they provoke this fight on purpose to do exactly this?” From where I’m sitting, it looks to me like their insistence on zero diplomatic concessions to Russia led directly to this outcome. So, the answer to my question is ‘Yes, it was deliberate.’
But, even if I’m wrong and there are other unstated reasons why Russia blitzed Ukraine’s military installations off the map last night, the fallout from this will be far higher energy prices than the weak coalition governments will be able to sustain. I expect the map of Europe will look very different by the end of 2024 than it does today, reaching far beyond Ukraine.

 
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