OP-ED U.S. faces heightened challenges as it pivots to the west

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U.S. faces heightened challenges as it pivots to the west

Kirk Spitzer, Special for USA Today 6:58 p.m. CDT March 19, 2016

New Chinese islands, North Korean missiles, a more assertive Japanese defense force and the ongoing U.S. military “rebalancing” toward the west were among the key issues dominating the Asia-Pacific defense landscape last year.

And with defense budgets rising across the region, this year looks as if it will be no simpler in this economically vital region.

“The overall security situation in the Asia-Pacific region has gotten a bit worse and certainly more complicated in the past year,” said Ralph Cossa, president of the Center for Strategic & International Studies’ Pacific Forum CSIS, a think tank in Honolulu.

The Asia-Pacific region has become heavily militarized. Seven of the world’s 10 largest militaries and five of the world’s declared nuclear powers are located there, according to U.S. Pacific Command. Asia-Pacific defense spending by countries in the region grew by 27 percent from 2010, reaching $344 billion in 2014, according to the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London.

The arms buildup is being led by China, which has seen double-digit increases in annual defense spending for nearly two decades (it spent an estimated $216 billion on defense in 2014).

“Over the past two decades, China’s People’s Liberation Army has transformed itself from a large but antiquated force into a capable, modern military. Its technology and operational proficiency still lag behind those of the United States, but it has rapidly narrowed the gap,” the RAND Corp. concluded in a recent report.

Island building

China has been pressing aggressive territorial demands across the region. It’s been engaged in a tense standoff with Japan over the Senkaku Islands — which China calls Diaoyu — in the East China Sea.

And it has claimed nearly all of the strategic South China Sea, which also is claimed in part or entirely by five other countries.

China is backing up its claims — delineated by a so-called “nine-dash line” — by dredging to create artificial islands on seven geographic features in the Spratly Islands group. Several of those new islands include military-size airfields and deep-water ports that U.S. officials believe could be used to disrupt sea or air navigation in the vital waterway.

The U.S. Department of Defense’s Asia-Pacific Maritime Security Strategy noted that as of June 2015, China had reclaimed 2,900 acres of land in the South China Sea since its island-building campaign began in December 2013.

“When one looks at China’s pattern of provocative actions toward smaller claimant states — the lack of clarity on its sweeping ‘nine-dash line’ claim that is inconsistent with international law — and the deep asymmetry between China’s capabilities and those of its smaller neighbors — well, it’s no surprise that the scope and pace of building man-made islands raise serious questions about Chinese intentions,” said Adm. Harry B. Harris Jr. in a speech at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra in March. Harris assumed command of the U.S. Pacific Command in May.

U.S. officials reacted to the island-building campaign — belatedly, in the view of some critics — by sending a guided missile frigate, the USS Lassen, within 12 miles of one of China’s new islands in late October in a “freedom of navigation” operation meant to assert navigational rights in international waters. China, which has claimed “indisputable sovereignty over the islands in the South China Sea and the adjacent waters,” condemned the action.

The U.S. takes no position on competing sovereignty claims in the South China Sea but said that disputes should be resolved peacefully and that China’s new islands provide no territorial rights.

Of the 35 “freedom of navigation” operations conducted by the U.S. Navy in 2014, 19 took place in Pacific Command’s area of operations.

“We want a peaceful resolution of all disputes, and an immediate and lasting halt to land reclamation by any claimant,” Secretary of Defense Ashton B. Carter said earlier in 2015. “We also oppose any further militarization of disputed features. … There should be no mistake about this, the United States will fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows, as we do all around the world.”

The U.S. is heavily committed to the region. About 368,000 military personnel are stationed in the Asia-Pacific, including 97,000 west of the International Dateline, and that force is slated to grow.

The Navy plans to increase the number of ships assigned to the U.S. Pacific Fleet in areas outside of U.S. territory by roughly 30 percent during the next five years. Two new Aegis-class destroyers will join 7th Fleet this year, as well, and several older ships have been replaced with newer versions.

U.S. naval forces on Guam added another attack submarine — for a total of four — in 2015 and are expected to add a Joint High-Speed Vessel by 2018.

A plan to shift some of the 19,000 Marines based in Okinawa, Japan, to a “more distributed model” is underway, with up to 2,500 Marines serving on rotational deployments to Darwin, Australia, in 2016-17.

A challenge to the north

Erratic, nuclear-armed North Korea remains a challenge, as well, and 25,000 U.S. troops are based in South Korea.

North Korea is believed to have enough weapon-grade plutonium to be able to construct up to eight rudimentary nuclear weapons, though its ability to deliver them via ballistic missiles is still in doubt.

“North Korea remains the biggest immediate challenge,” Cossa said. “What’s pretty certain is that North Korea will not be giving up its nuclear weapons anytime soon.”

The North Korea threat, along with China’s growing strength and assertiveness, helped Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pass legislation — over widespread public opposition — that will ease long-standing, postwar restraints on Japan’s powerful, but low-profile military. Already, Japan is developing an amphibious warfare capability, building up intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets, and revising guidelines that will allow its Self Defense Forces to operate more closely with U.S. forces.

“There’s no shortage of challenges that confront us,” said Harris at a change-of-command ceremony in Hawaii in May. “From North Korea and their quest for nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them inter-continentally. To China’s pre-posterous claims to — and land reclamation activities in — the South China Sea. To a resurgent Russia whose Pacific coastline boasts four strategic submarine and air bases and exceeds the distance from here to California. … This is hard work, but this is what we live for.”

A major player

The territory covered by U.S. Pacific Command includes:

•About 50% of the Earth’s surface

•36 nations, including Canada, Mexico, Japan, Australia, Peru, Chile, Singapore and Malaysia

•5 of the world’s declared nuclear nations

•7 of the 10 largest standing, or full-time, militaries in the world

•9 of the 10 largest ports
 
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