Solar Solar X 1.0 Flare Sunspot AR 2887 to Possibly Hit the Earth!

packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.

Space Weather by SolarHam

www.solarham.net www.solarham.net


October 28, 2021 @ 15:55 UTC (UPDATED)
A major solar flare measuring X1.0 was just observed around AR 2887 at 15:35 UTC. The active region is directly facing Earth and should a CME be produced, it would almost certainly be directed towards our planet.

CME Update: Imagery courtesy of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) confirms that a coronal mass ejection (CME), likely of the halo variety is associated and should be directed squarely towards our planet. A Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 1263 km/s was recorded. An impact past our planet should be expected this weekend and will be good news for aurora sky watchers. This information will be confirmed once updated Earth facing coronagraph imagery is available. Stay Tuned!

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2021 Oct 28 1529 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1263 km/s



CME Captured by STEREO Ahead (Oct 28)

 
packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.

MAJOR X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Earth orbiting satellites have just detected a major X-class solar flare from sunspot AR2887 (following two lesser M-flares described below. The blast at 1535 UT on Oct. 28th created a massive tsunami of plasma in the sun's atmosphere and almost certainly hurled a CME toward Earth. Stay tuned for images and updates about this event. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.

EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARES: Sunspot AR2887 is facing Earth and flaring. So far today, Oct. 28th, the active region has produced two M-class solar flares (M1.4 @ 0740 UT; M2.2 @ 10:28 UT). At the Givatayim Observatory in Israel, astronomer Ofer Gabzo happened to be looking when the stronger of the two occurred:

​

"Conditions were horrible (lots of clouds and haze), but luckily I captured a video right at the peak of an M2-class flare in AR2887," says Gabzo.

Pulses of extreme ultraviolet radiation from the flares ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing brief shortwave radio blackouts centered on the Indian Ocean and, a little later, Africa. Blackout maps: M1.4, M2.2. Mariners, aviators and ham radio operators in the area may have noticed unusual propagation effects at frequencies below 20 MHz.

We don't yet know if these explosions hurled CMEs toward Earth; tentatively, we'd say not. Confirmation awaits fresh coronagraph data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.
 
D

Double_A

TB Fanatic
1635446181968.png

https://spaceweather.com

MAJOR X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Earth orbiting satellites have just detected an X1-class solar flare from Earth-facing sunspot AR2887. The blast at 1535 UT on Oct. 28th created a massive tsunami of plasma in the sun's atmosphere:
​
The blast also hurled a CME toward Earth. Coronagraph images are not yet available, but evidence for a CME is already pursuasive. The USAF reports strong Type II and Type IV radio emissions generated by a CME plowing through the sun's atmosphere. In addition, energetic particles accelerated at the leading edge of a CME have already reached Earth.
When will the CME itself arrive? Probably on Oct. 30th or 31st. Fresh data from SOHO coronagraphs will allow a more precise forecast. Stay tuned. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.
more images: from Roucheux Philippe of Joigny, Burgundy, France
 
sierra don

sierra don

Veteran Member
SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

Earth orbiting satellites have just detected an X1-class solar flare from Earth-facing sunspot AR2887. The blast at 1535 UT on Oct. 28th created a massive tsunami of plasma in the sun's atmosphere:

tsunami_gold.gif


The blast also hurled a CME into space. Coronagraph images are not yet available, but evidence for a CME is already pursuasive. The USAF reports strong Type II and Type IV radio emissions generated by a CME plowing through the sun's atmosphere. In addition, energetic particles accelerated at the leading edge of a CME have already reached Earth.

When will the CME itself arrive? Assuming that it is Earth directed, probably on Oct. 30th or 31st. Fresh data from SOHO coronagraphs will allow a more precise forecast, so stay tuned.

During the flare, a pulse of X-rays and extreme UV radiation ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a strong shortwave radio blackout centered on South America:

blackout_x1_strip.jpg


Aviators, mariners, and ham radio operators on the daylit side of Earth may have noticed strange propagation effects at frequencies below 30 MHz.

Sunspot AR2887 may not be finished yet. It has already produced two M-class flares and an X-flare today. The active region is directly facing Earth, so any additional eruptions should be geoeffective. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text.

more images: from Pepe Manteca of Begues, Barcelona, Spain; from Roucheux Philippe of Joigny, Burgundy, France; from Ofer Gabzo of the Givatayim Observatory, Israel;
 
packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
Dupe, already posted a thread earlier today in the Earth Changes forum here.

Solar - Solar X 1.0 Flare Sunspot AR 2887 to Possibly Hit the Earth!

https://www.solarham.net/ October 28, 2021 @ 15:55 UTC (UPDATED) A major solar flare measuring X1.0 was just observed around AR 2887 at 15:35 UTC. The active region is directly facing Earth and should a CME be produced, it would almost certainly be directed towards our planet. CME Update...
www.timebomb2000.com www.timebomb2000.com
 
packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
It's raining here this afternoon, we're still in severe drought conditions, I'm not sure what conditions will be like tonight or this weekend.

Thank you for the forecast map WW.
 
Tom McDowell

Tom McDowell

BAMN
packyderms_wife said:
I put this tread in earth changes as per board rules, which most ignore! If the mods want it on the main then they will move it there.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I get that. Wherever the original post is made has standing. However many posts which relate to various forms of our weather (including space weather) are not mandated to sub-forums. Especially if there's a noteworthy event, possibly affecting large number of members, and visitors - like a hurricane.

Then again, if you want a lesser audience of a sub forum, all good.

First_there, can mitigate, decrease, and thus control distribution, by posting sub.​
​
​
Corollary

Thread moved off of main is less visible.​

My comment merely reflects the likelihood in which - if those in Houston may have a problem, we'd all like foreknowledge. ~ Might affect me too.

Most people would like the like the acknowledgement wherein, they themselves possess the ability to make definitive choices based on available facts, & utilize their own cognitive abilities, to make decisions relating to weather.

No disrespect intended.
===
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jed turtle

jed turtle

a brother in the Lord
Earth‘s magnetosphere shield has been in decline for many years. I keep a post-it note on the computer screen from 2014 to remind me of an observation back then that it was declining 10X faster than “normal”...
how Earth was affected by an X-class flare NOW will not resemble how it was affected when we had one, say, back in 2004, or so...
 
packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
Tom McDowell said:
Yeah, I get that. Wherever the original post is made has standing. However many posts which relate to various forms of our weather (including space weather) are not mandated to sub-forums. Especially if there's a noteworthy event, possibly affecting large number of members, and visitors - like a hurricane.

Then again, if you want a lesser audience of a sub forum, all good.

First_there, can mitigate, decrease, and thus control distribution, by posting sub.​
​
​
Corollary

Thread moved off of main is less visible.​

My comment merely reflects the likelihood in which - if those in Houston may have a problem, we'd all like foreknowledge. ~ Might affect me too.

Most people would like the like the acknowledgement wherein, they themselves possess the ability to make definitive choices based on available facts, & utilize their own cognitive abilities, to make decisions relating to weather.

No disrespect intended.
===
.
Click to expand...

Learn how to use the 'What's New' button and how to scroll beyond the first ten threads on the main and your world of information will grow and immensely! No disrespect intended!

:lol:
 
Tom McDowell

Tom McDowell

BAMN
packyderms_wife said:
Learn how to use the 'What's New' button and how to scroll beyond the first ten threads on the main and your world of information will grow and immensely! No disrespect intended!

:lol:
Click to expand...

Been using the "new posts" link for well over 10 years, not the "what's new" link. You'd be surprised. The only time I pop on main is to post a new thread. The number of eyeballs on main is substantially higher than sub-forums. Non members have access to main.

===
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packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
Tom McDowell said:
Been using the "new posts" link for well over 10 years, not the "what's new" link. You'd be surprised. The only time I pop on main is to post a new thread. The number of eyeballs on main is substantially higher than sub-forums. Non members have access to main.

===
.
Click to expand...

Well then if they want to see everything here at TBK then I suggest they become members! Not my monkey's not my circus and this discussion is closed!
 
Blacknarwhal

Blacknarwhal

Let's Go Brandon!
Considering that this thing might be starting tomorrow, have we figured out yet if this is a grid killer or another nothingburger?
 
Babs

Babs

Veteran Member
Blacknarwhal said:
Considering that this thing might be starting tomorrow, have we figured out yet if this is a grid killer or another nothingburger?
Click to expand...
According to our local media, it's a G3 or something like that. I don't know what that is. But it sounds like it's going to be a beautiful show in our area.
 
Hfcomms

Hfcomms

EN66iq
Samuel Adams said:
I’ve been sitting in the woods watching my neighbor’s powerline transformer with binoculars, last two days.

No pops or sizzles.

Am I doing it wrong ?



:shr:
Click to expand...


You have to stand in a tub of water and reach up and touch it with a metal pole and then you'll see the pops and sizzles......for a split second. You might even feel a tingly sensation run up your leg.
 
Samuel Adams

Samuel Adams

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Hfcomms said:
You have to stand in a tub of water and reach up and touch it with a metal pole and then you'll see the pops and sizzles......for a split second. You might even feel a tingly sensation run up your leg.
Click to expand...

That sounds like fun !!

:spns:





But.....you wouldn’t just be pullin’ my leg about all that, wouldjuh ?








:popcorn3:
 
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