Weather ‘Significant’ storm next week threatens Thanksgiving travel

[marsh]

‘Significant’ storm next week threatens Thanksgiving travel

The large-scale weather pattern is expected to start over the weekend.

nypost.com

‘Significant’ storm next week threatens Thanksgiving travel

By
Emily Crane
November 17, 2021 8:10am
Updated
you would get this strengthening storm across the Midwest,
Storm could cause major travel delays ahead of Thanksgiving

A “significant storm” and “strong cold front” could hit the US Northeast and Midwest next week — potentially wreaking havoc on Thanksgiving travel plans, forecasters warn.

The large-scale weather pattern is expected to start over the weekend and extend into early next week, according to the National Weather Service’s prediction center.

The full extent and path of the storm hasn’t yet been nailed down, but forecasters are — at the very least — predicting a drop in temperatures and strong winds for Monday and Tuesday.

“This storm remains a prominent weather focus due to its timing right before Thanksgiving,” the NWS said Wednesday afternoon. “Potential continues for a strong cold front and significant storm to affect the East early next week.”

While it’s too early to predict the full extent of the weather front, experts say it could create a “huge mess” right before the holiday.AccuWeather

AccuWeather forecasters said the effects of the potential storm pattern would have lingering effects into the day before Thanksgiving, which is known to be the busiest travel day of the year.

“We could be looking at a huge mess and a real wrench in holiday travel,” AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jon Porter said.

One scenario forecasters are tracking could bring heavy snow to parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan — and could potentially extend into parts of the Northeast.

Forecasters warned that Midwestern states will be hit with strong winds and plunging temperatures early Saturday that will “steadily” become more “amplified” as the storm moves east, according to the NWS.

Based on the front’s current trajectory, the Midwest could experience heavy snow and wind starting this weekend.AccuWeather

Another scenario could see the storm evolve slowly over the Midwest on Sunday and Monday before bringing thunderstorms, high winds and a drop in temperature to the Northeast.

The high winds alone could be enough to cause delays at major transport hubs in the East and Midwest in the days before Thanksgiving, the forecasters warn.

Nearly 54 million Americans are expected to travel this Thanksgiving — up 13 percent from last year, according to the American Automobile Association.

More than 4 million are predicted to travel by air and 48 million on the roads.

 

[Signwatcher]

Yipee.

 

[summerthyme]

We're under a "winter weather advisory " from now until 1 pm tomorrow. Up to 8" of snow, although I suspect most of it will miss us just slightly north and east. Still, we've gotten over 10" of rain in the last 2 weeks, and if this pattern keeps up, it could be an interesting winter!

Summerthyme

 

[John Deere Girl]

We are in the area to be affected, but I'm not seeing anything on any of the weather sites I use for our area. I'd love some snow though.

 

[psychgirl]

We are in the area to be affected, but I'm not seeing anything on any of the weather sites I use for our area. I'd love some snow though.

I can’t find it either, in any of my groups yet.

 

[marsh]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

"Significant Storm" And Plunging Temperatures Loom For Thanksgiving Week

THURSDAY, NOV 18, 2021 - 08:00 PM
Early last week, we told readers a "severe blast" of Arctic air would encompass parts of the US Lower-48 beginning today. While today is mild, Friday, on the other hand, will be the beginning of colder weather for the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, with the potential for a Thanksgiving week snowstorm from Chicago to New York.

The first colder air mass will pour into the East over the next couple of days. Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees below normal for this time of year.

"The next surge of colder air will spread across the eastern half of the lower 48 Monday-Tuesday with the broadest coverage of highs 10-15F below normal expected on Tuesday," the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) said.

There is a good chance strong winds, rain, or perhaps even snow from Chicago to New York could be seen Sunday night and into early next week.

"This storm remains a prominent weather focus due to its timing right before Thanksgiving but it will likely still take a while to resolve the details," WPC said.

The National Weather Service in New York said, "a lot of uncertainty in the forecast Sunday night and into early next week, so forecast has low confidence especially in terms of exact precipitation amounts, winds, and the timing of higher winds and precipitation."



Another round of cold air will keep temperatures across the East well below normal for Thanksgiving and through the weekend. All of this chilly weather will increase energy demand. Commodity website Nat Gas Weather outlines, "early next week will bring another chilly weather system across the northern US for a swing back to stronger demand."



Natgas futures are higher ahead of the latest round of government inventory data Thursday as strong demand continues. The December Nymex contract was up 13 cents, or nearly 3%, to 4.95/MMBtu at around 1145 ET. The coming cold spell could add additional support to prices.



Heating degree days for the US Lower 48 will spike above the 30-year trendline through the end of the month, forecasting that demand for energy to heat building structures will increase. This in itself suggests natgas prices will remain elevated.



According to WPC, plunging temperatures and the threat for a "significant storm to affect the East early next week" could disrupt Thanksgiving travel plans.

 

[Samuel Adams]

So this is what forecasting the first typical storm of the winter season has devolved to......

 

[marsh]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Rolling Blackouts Possible In Texas, Midwest As Cold Blast Looms

FRIDAY, NOV 19, 2021 - 06:40 PM

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), a nonprofit corporation responsible for overseeing US' power grid, published a new report on the risk of rolling blackouts if persistent cold weather is observed this winter.

NERC's three-month (December–February) winter report is an assessment that identifies potential reliability issues of interest across six regional power grids.



The report identifies Texas as having the weakest power grid if extreme cold weather were to strike.



"Extreme weather events, including extended durations of colder than normal weather, pose a risk to the uninterrupted delivery of power to electricity consumers," the report said, adding that power grids might have to use "rolling blackout procedures to ensure that no critical infrastructure loads (e.g., natural gas, telecommunications) would be affected."

Power grids are expected to have sufficient supplies under normal operating conditions between the three months. But if unseasonably cold weather is observed, fossil fuel generators (powered by crude, coal, or natural gas) may experience shortages due to supply constraints.

For instance, the report warns about potential coal delivery problems:

"Coal delivery problems by rail can impact the operation of coal-fired electricity generation; likewise, the economics of electricity and energy markets can affect coal supplies. Coal supplies in North America are being affected by the current global energy shortage," the report said, pointing out that supplies are dwindling ahead of winter.



In early October, we quoted Ernie Thrasher, CEO of Xcoal Energy & Resources LLC., who said US utilities are quickly turning to coal generation because of soaring natural gas prices.

"We've actually had discussions with power utilities who are concerned that they simply will have to implement blackouts this winter," Thrasher warned.

He said, "They don't see where the fuel is coming from to meet demand," adding that 23% of utilities are switching away from gas this fall/winter to burn more coal.

We recently noted that due to unprecedented demand, resource companies had sold every piece of coal they will extract from the ground for 2022. "It's pretty much sold out," Peabody CEO Jim Grech said last month. "We only have a small portion left to be sold for 2022 and for 2023."

A La Nina winter means below-average temperatures for parts of the northern hemisphere. Hopefully, an energy crisis like the one playing out in Europe and China isn't headed for the US.

 

[Signwatcher]

We're under a "winter weather advisory " from now until 1 pm tomorrow. Up to 8" of snow, although I suspect most of it will miss us just slightly north and east. Still, we've gotten over 10" of rain in the last 2 weeks, and if this pattern keeps up, it could be an interesting winter!

Summerthyme

Sure could! Considering one inch of rain equals approximately 10" of snow!

 

[Samuel Adams]

Significant’ storm next week threatens.....

Well, now that a few days have passed, word on the street is that the storm ain’t weather-related.....

 

[John Deere Girl]

Well, now that a few days have passed, word on the street is that the storm ain’t weather-related.....

Can you elaborate on that please? I'm seeing nothing in the forecast.

 

[Samuel Adams]

Convergence of world events.....check the bomb shelter at “Katy Bar the Door.....and backdrop that against, well.......everything.