Russia reports first case of bird flu

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HeliumAvid

Too Tired to ReTire
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-07/21/content_3250142.htm

Russia reports first case of bird flu

www.chinaview.cn 2005-07-21 21:34:27


　 　MOSCOW, July 21 (Xinhuanet) -- Russia has detected the country's first case of bird flu in the Siberian region of Novosibirsk, the Emergency Situations Ministry said Thursday.

"High bird mortality rates were registered in the village of Suzdalka. Tests have revealed the AH5 bird flu virus," ministry spokesman Viktor Beltsov told the Interfax news agency.

More than 200 geese and 100 chickens have died in the past few days in the village, and the Novosibirsk region is taking measures to prevent further spread of the virus, Beltsov said.

Russia's chief epidemiologist Gennady Onishchenko also told Interfax that experts are verifying the report of bird flu in Suzdalka.

"Like people, birds can become ill from time to time. This Novosibirsk village is the only place in Russia today where cases of bird flu have been registered. We are investigating what actually happened there," Onishchenko said.

"There will be no quarantine. People have not fallen ill and it is the veterinarians' business to cure the birds," he said.

The AH5 bird flu virus, which can be transmitted to humans, has claimed the lives of more than 50 people in Asia since 2003. Enditem
 
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http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2005/s1419275.htm

Indonesia confirms bird flu deaths

AM - Thursday, 21 July , 2005 08:28:00
Reporter: Alexandra Kirk
TONY EASTLEY: Australia's closest Asian neighbour, Indonesia, has now confirmed its first human fatalities from bird flu.

Investigations are underway to try to determine how a father and his two young daughters, who live near Jakarta, came to be infected with the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu, which has killed more than 50 people in South East Asia since 2003.

Australia's Chief Medical Officer says it's serious, but he doesn't think Australia's risk level should rise.

Professor John Horvath, who chairs the National Pandemic Council on avian influenza, and who represents Australia in international discussions on the virus, is speaking here with Alexandra Kirk.

JOHN HORVATH: Alex, it is concerning, and we remain concerned at all these cases in East Asia. There are three cases, and it has been confirmed that it is of the H5N1 type, and now we're doing the Sherlock Holmes detective case to find out what are the possible ways they may have caught it.

ALEXANDRA KIRK: It is thought at this stage that the family didn't have any contact with infected birds, and so the fear is that this is a possible case of human-to-human transmission.

JOHN HORVATH: Well, that remains a possibility. But there have been other birds – ducks, geese – also well-known to be infected with it. So we've got to find out what other animals they've been in contact with that may have in fact had this infection.

It is possible that at least there's been some human-to-human transmission. But it's really important that human-to-human transmission doesn't automatically mean an epidemic or pandemic.

We've had human-to-human transmission in little clusters in Vietnam, Thailand already. It's when it becomes really efficient that one person can spread it to lots of people, who then spread it to lots of people, is when the trouble really occurs, and so far this has not yet happened.

ALEXANDRA KIRK: How high do you rate the risk then, of this case?

JOHN HORVATH: I think our current risk levels, and I've been in contact with WHO recently, remain at the level it's been. No one has raised the risk levels yet. The figures people have been talking about are that there is a small but realistic chance that sometime in the next year or two we could have an epidemic or a pandemic. The figures that have been bandied around are 10 per cent.

ALEXANDRA KIRK: Do you accept those figures?

JOHN HORVATH: I think we do accept those figures. That's the sort of figures people internationally are talking about.

ALEXANDRA KIRK: How alarmed do you think Australians should be then, about Indonesia having confirmed its first human fatalities from bird flu?

JOHN HORVATH: Well, I don't think that we need to be any more alarmed than we are currently. We are working continuously to have a high level of preparedness. I don't think the fact that Indonesia is a bit physically closer than Thailand or Vietnam is an issue, as with air travel everything is close.

TONY EASTLEY: Australia's Chief Medical Officer, Professor John Horvath, speaking with Alexandra Kirk.
 
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http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07200505/H5N1_Indonesia_Pandemic.html

Commentary
.
H5N1 Bird Flu Deaths in Indonesia Raise Pandemic Concerns

Recombinomics Commentary
July 20, 2005

Although some health officials raised suspicions about bird flu shortly after Rafei and his daughters died, the health ministry had declined to blame the deaths on the virus until tests were completed at a specialized laboratory in Hong Kong. A sample from Rafei tested positive for the virus, health officials said, citing the results received Wednesday. Another specimen from his older daughter showed antibodies, indicating she had been exposed to bird flu, but it tested negative for the virus itself. No test was done for the younger daughter because she was buried without a sample being taken.

The above description matches the H5N1 bird flu pattern in each country that has reported clusters of bird flu deaths. Typically there is no testing on the first to die, testing of relatives is initially negative or inconclusive, and eventually one of more family members is laboratory confirmed H5N1 positive.

These cluster demonstrate human-to-human transmission, but highlight the number of false negatives on suspected cases and the lack of testing on patients where the suspicion level is not as high. This cluster had a bimodal distribution of onset dates. The older daughter was the index case and was admitted into the hospital on June 29. Her father who frequently visited her while she was hospitalized was not admitted until July 7, the same day as his youngest daughter. No sample was collected from the youngest daught.

The initial samples from the father and index case were positive for bacteria and negative for virus, so the government declared them to be bacterial pneumonia cases. Since the cases were fatal, bacterial pneumonia was more likely due to a secondary infection. In later tests the index case still tested negative for the virus. This was probably due to clearance of the virus from the site of collection or poor sample collection. Eventually the father tested positive for the virus and his older daughter was positive for antibody, leaving little doubt that all three died from H5N1. However, if the three had not presented as a cluster, it is unlikely that any would have been declared positive for H5N1,

The same pattern happened in Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia. In Vietnam one of the first reported clusters was in Vietnam in January of 2004. A groom developed symptoms shortly after his wedding. Several days later his two sisters, who cared for him developed symptoms. The groom was never tested, but the cluster had a typical bimodal distribution and all three had bird flu symptoms. The two sisters who were infected by their brother had a typical common exposure history. The two sisters developed symptoms on the same day, were hospitalized the same day, test inconclusive, eventually tested H5N1 positive, and died within one hour of each other.

In Thailand the cluster was written up in the New England Journal of Medicine. It is frequently cited as the best example of human-to-human transmission. However, it is cited because when the index case was infected, her mother was several hundreds of miles away in an office in Bangkok. The mother visited her daughter and had no contact with birds. The mother developed symptoms after her daughter died, but still has not tested. Because a nurse notified investigators of another case, the mother was found just before cremation. Tissues from the mother were H5n1 positive and the aunt eventually tested positive, although initial tests were negative.

The same series was repeated in Cambodia. The index case died in Cambodia without being tested. However, shortly after his death his sister developed symptoms and was hospitalized in Vietnam. After her death she tested positive for H5N1. She had not been tested in Cambodia even though her brother had already died and both had bird flu symptoms.

Thus, all four clusters have bimodal distributions and only the aunt in Thailand survived out of the 11 cases in the 4 clusters. It is unclear if any of the 11 would have been tested if not in a cluster where all cluster members had bird flu symptoms.

Although all four clusters above clearly involve human-to-human transmission, WHO has kept the pandemic level of 3 indicating there is no human to human transmission. There are about another dozen familial clusters in Vietnam and virtually all have bimodal distributions of disease onset dates indicating the all likely involve human-to-human transmission of H5N1. Stage 4 is defined as small dead-end clusters of cases, which is what each of these familial clusters is, yet the official stage for the 2005 flu pandemic is 3.

The larger clusters in northern Vietnam have been laboratory confirmed. Larger cluster define stage 5. Third party reports out of China suggest H5N1 human-to-human transmission has become sustained, which is the definition of stage 6, the final stage. China has denied human cases and WHO has kept the stage at 3.

Unfortunately, H5N1 does not read press releases.
 
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http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07210501/H5_Russia_Outbreak.html

Commentary
.
Confirmed H5 Bird Flu in Novosibirsk Russia

Recombinomics Commentary
July 21, 2005

As many as 200 geese and 100 chickens were killed by the virus in the village of Suzdalka near Novosibirsk, a source in the ministry told the Gazeta.ru news website.

The presence of H5 bird flu in migrating Russian birds is not a new development. Genbank has sequences dating back to 2001 and the H5 is associated with several N sero-types. However, the reassortants signal dual infections, and the earlier versions of H5 in Russia are recombinants with some polymorphisms from Europe and others from eastern Asia.

Hover Novosibirsk is just 400 miles north of Tacheng, the site of a recent H5N1 putbreak that killed domestic geese, which is an unusual outcome for H5 infections. The Tacheng outbreak was followed by an outbreak in Changji, Xinjiang and that outbreak also resulted in fatal infections in ducks and geese. Most of the reported migratory bird deaths at Qinghai lake were also geese, so the deaths of 200 geese in Russia strongly suggest a relationship and further spread of H5N1 by migratory birds.

The H5N1 sequences at Qinghai Lake are from reassortants and the isolates are recombinants, acquiring many polymorphisms normally found in European swine. The acquisition of mammalian polymorphisms was seen in Vuetnam and Thailand and these isolates produce lethal infections in humans.

There are third party reports of H5N1 human infections in Qinghai Lake as well as reports of force quaratine administered by the military. These reports raise concerns that the failure of China to respond requests from WHO to visit Xinjiang and the withholding of sequences and samples are part of a large cover-up designed to hide or delay release of information on a raging pandemic in China.
 
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/li...ain.html?in_article_id=356539&in_page_id=1774

<b>Bird flu 'as serious a threat as terrorism'</b>
08:31am 21st July 2005

Any glance at the British media in recent months reveals a growing fear of a bird flu pandemic across the globe.

The attitude, particularly among the scientific community, appears to be one of "when" not "if" there is an outbreak.

One report earlier this year quoted the Civil Contingency Secretariat warning that the H5N1 form of avian flu that has now claimed the lives of 54 people in south-east Asia as being "as serious a threat as terrorism".


Britain's emergency Cobra committee, which met to deal with the response to the July 7 London bombings, would also be convened to help fight the spread of the disease.

Elsewhere, scientists and other eminent public health bodies have propounded theories and estimates.

Fears of the worldwide threat of bird flu were raised earlier this month when the strain was spotted in migratory bar-headed geese in western China, the first confirmation it can be passed between wild birds.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) believes a bird flu pandemic is "inevitable" and could cause some 50,000 deaths in the UK. Others were more pessimistic.

One senior British Government official revealed that emergency services and coroners will be warned to prepare for between 20,000 and 750,000 deaths in the event of a pandemic, potentially more devastating than the previous worst 'flu outbreak in 1918.

The academic who was one of the first to warn of the threat of BSE, microbiologist Professor Hugh Pennington, went further, predicting that up to two million Britons could die from a mutated form of the H5N1 virus.

'Widespread panic'

In the journal Nature, US and Dutch scientists, put forward an apocryphal scenario: millions of deaths, about one fifth of the world's population affected, widespread panic and the collapse of international trade.

The arrival of pandemic flu would "change the world overnight", they said, and a global response to the threat, including better monitoring of infectious diseases and restrictions on animal movements worldwide, was needed to avoid a potential catastrophe.

Health Secretary Patricia Hewitt's announcement to order two million doses of a vaccine against the H5N1 virus comes against such a background.

It follows Department of Health plans outlined in March to stockpile 14.6m doses of the anti-viral drug Tamiflu, costing £200 million, and other measures such as closing schools and cancelling sporting events.

A new inter-departmental Government group, including chief scientists, was also set up last month to develop models on how to handle an outbreak in the UK.

The Health Protection Agency points out that the UK is one of only a few countries who have successfully completed clinical trials on a vaccine against H5 influenza strains.

The UK Vaccine Industry Group, whose members are likely to be involved in developing any virus, also praised the "proactive" response.

Despite this, the Government and other industrialised nations' handling of the situation has been criticised: some experts doubt that relying on a vaccine would have any short-term effects as the exact strain of virus would not be known until the pandemic struck.

Dr Douglas Fleming, the Royal College of General Practitioners' 'flu spokesman, is among those who have given a cautious welcome.

The vaccine tender was an important step, he said, particularly with the hope that a vaccine from an H5 virus could offer some protection from a range of H5 virus variants.

But he added: "Whilst we should regard that as prudent, we nevertheless should recognise that it is highly speculative. We know antiviral drugs have been ordered as a stockpile but manufacturing capacity is such that these cannot be delivered very quickly.

"I do not know what the delivery conditions attached to this vaccine order are. The human cases of bird flu have been serious and I think we should support this action even though its value is speculative."
 
CGTech

CGTech

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Promed: Bird Flu in Russia?

If true, this could spread across the Eurasian continent very quickly!! :shkr:


AVIAN INFLUENZA, GEESE, CHICKEN - RUSSIA (SIBERIA): SUSPECTED, RFI
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Sponsored in part by Elsevier, publisher of
Health Information for International Travel 2005-2006
<http://tinyurl.com/c228c>

Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005
From: Nati Elkin<nati@poultrymed.com>
Source: MosNewsCom, 21 Jul 2005 [edited]
<http://www.mosnews.com/news/2005/07/21/brdflurus.shtml>


Bird flu cases registered in Russia's Siberia
---------------------------------------------
Large quantities of poultry were killed by the bird flu virus type AH5 in
the city of Novosibirsk, the chief spokesman for Russia's Emergencies
Ministry said Thursday [21 Jul 2005].

Viktor Beltsov, a spokesman for the Emergencies Ministry, said bird flu had
been detected in poultry in a village in Siberia's Novosibirsk region.
"Numerous birds have died...and an investigation showed the presence of the
AH5-type bird flu virus," Beltsov said.

But Sergei Dankvert, chief animal and plant safety officer, told Reuters
that the death of the birds could have been caused by other factors. "We
cannot say now if something out of the ordinary has occured. The reason
behind the accident could be bad water, feed poisoning, Newcastle disease
or bird flu. More investigation is needed," Dankvert said.

As many as 200 geese and 100 chickens were killed by the virus in the
village of Suzdalka near Novosibirsk, a source in the ministry told the
Gazeta.ru news website. Veterinarian inspectors and health officials were
summoned to the site to investigate the incident, the report said.

Russia does not produce enough poultry for domestic needs and imports over
a million tonnes of poultry meat annually, mainly from the United States,
the European Union and Brazil, Reuters writes.

Beltsov was not able to give any further details on the AH5 virus. The H5N1
strain of avian influenza has killed at least 50 people in Asia since 2003.

--
Nati Elkin
<nati@poultrymed.com>

[Any first-hand available details will be appreciated.- Mod.AS]

[Elsevier online reference: Avian influenza: perfect storm now brewing?
Lancet 2005; 365: 820
<http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS014067360571014X/fulltext>]

[see also:
Avian influenza, wild waterfowl - China (08) 20050707.1922
Avian influenza, wild waterfowl - China (07) 20050702.1872
Avian influenza, wild waterfowl - China (06) 20050629.1833
Avian influenza, wild waterfowl - China (05) 20050628.1828
Avian influenza, wild waterfowl - China (04): (Xin... 20050622.1743
Avian influenza, geese - China (04) 20050620.1735
Avian influenza, geese - China (03): OIE 20050608.1591
Avian influenza, wild waterfowl - China (03) 20050604.1558
Avian influenza, wild waterfowl - China (02): warning system 20050601.1529
Avian influenza, wild waterfowl - China 20050527.1462
Avian influenza, geese - China (02) 20050523.1423
Avian influenza, geese - China 20050522.1413]

...................arn/sh


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