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Before diving into more developments from the conflict in Ukraine,
The War Zone readers can review our previous coverage
here.
The Latest
While the Kremlin talks up the possibility of a buffer zone in Ukraine, it also appears to be having problems closer to home, with strikes on its territory by its own military.
Reports state that the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) have been bombing targets within Russian Federation borders, part of the fallout of the
cross-border raids launched by pro-Ukrainian forces last week.
At the time, the Russian Ministry of Defense said “terrorist formations” had tried to invade Russia’s Belgorod region, with an attack launched in three directions, supported by tanks and other armored fighting vehicles. The Russians also said that another four attacks were repulsed in Russia’s Kursk region. Three separate groups were reportedly involved: the Freedom of Russia Legion, the Siberian Battalion, and the Russian Volunteer Corps.
A Ukrainian journalist, Andriy Tsaplienko,
shared a video of an explosion on Friday that he says provided evidence of a VKS airstrike on Russian soil.
View: https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1768971549065834535?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1768971549065834535%7Ctwgr%5E2521aeb6ca6aa47eb5b9b46da4b858004f03f184%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.twz.com%2Fnews-features%2Fukraine-situation-report-putin-now-talking-about-creating-a-buffer-zone
A volunteer from the Freedom of Russia Legion
told Newsweek that the rebel fighters plan to eventually “march on Moscow,” to achieve their goal of the “liberation of Russia from Putin.” The fighter added: “We may not be able to pull it off now, but that is our overarching mission.”
View: https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1769677455411810517?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1769677455411810517%7Ctwgr%5E2521aeb6ca6aa47eb5b9b46da4b858004f03f184%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.twz.com%2Fnews-features%2Fukraine-situation-report-putin-now-talking-about-creating-a-buffer-zone
In an interview
over the weekend, French President Emmanuel Macron said that Western ground operations in Ukraine might be necessary “at some point.”
The statement comes a month after Macron refused to rule out putting troops on the ground in Ukraine, something that caused no little consternation among some other European allies.
Despite that — and a predictably hostile reception from Russia — the French president has not backed down from his position.
“Maybe at some point — I don’t want it, I won’t take the initiative — we will have to have operations on the ground, whatever they may be, to counter the Russian forces,” Macron told newspaper
Le Parisien in an
interview.
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Russian drone and missile attacks against Ukraine continue. The Ukrainian Air Force claimed that of the 22 drones launched by Russia overnight, its defenses destroyed 17. The air force also wrote on Telegram that Russia launched seven missiles against Ukraine overnight, although it’s unclear what targets they hit and if any were intercepted.
The video below shows the purported destruction of an Iranian-designed Shahed-type drone over Odesa by Ukrainian air defenses on the previous night.
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Over the weekend there were reports from Ukraine of dozens of Russian attacks close to the border, with officials claiming that there were more than 60 shelling incidents in the district of Sumy, northeastern Ukraine, on Sunday alone; these are said to have killed one person. Previous heavy shelling by Russia had led to a
mass evacuation of the Sumy region having been launched late last week.
Ukrainian officials also said that one person was killed and at least eight injured in
a Russian missile attack on the Black Sea port city of Mykolaiv, also on Sunday.
Russian tactical nuclear weapons have arrived in neighboring Belarus, according to unnamed Western officials,
speaking to Foreign Policy. Plans to move the weapons — understood to be air-dropped freefall bombs — several hundred miles closer to NATO territory had been
outlined in June last year, but there had not been confirmation from officials that they had arrived there until now.
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Authorities in the pro-Russia region of Transnistria, in Moldova, blamed Ukraine for what they said was a drone strike on a helicopter at a military base in the breakaway republic on Sunday. A video appeared across social media showing a drone flying toward a Mi-8 Hip helicopter, which then burst into flames.
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Moldova’s Bureau for Reintegration Policies said in a statement that after examining video footage, they “do not confirm any attack” on Transnistria and called it “an attempt to cause fear and panic in the region.”
There are certainly very legitimate questions about the incident as depicted in the video. First, it’s notable that the helicopter has been out of action for at least several years, based on satellite imagery.
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The fact that a video camera was set up and able to record the moment of the purported drone strike is also puzzling, while open-source imagery analysts have raised several issues with the apparent path of the drone toward the helicopter, as the drone suddenly disappears from the footage. Speculation has also been raised about the nature of the explosion, which seems to have more in common with a detonation outward from inside the helicopter, rather than it having been struck by an external object.
View: https://twitter.com/SanderRegter/status/1769431757655249315?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1769431757655249315%7Ctwgr%5E2521aeb6ca6aa47eb5b9b46da4b858004f03f184%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.twz.com%2Fnews-features%2Fukraine-situation-report-putin-now-talking-about-creating-a-buffer-zone
Nevertheless, the incident is symptomatic of tensions surrounding Transnistria.
Earlier this year, officials in Transnistria requested from Russia for protection against what it says is a concerted campaign directed against its economy by the Moldovan government.
There have also been reports suggesting that Transnistria may be poised to stage a referendum on its potential annexation by Russia.
The breakaway republic already receives economic and military support from Moscow, including around 1,500 Russian soldiers stationed on Transnistrian soil.
In the past, Moscow
has also tried pushing the narrative that Ukraine is poised to make a military move against the region, without any evidence to back those claims.
Russia has lost examples of its
TOS-1A thermobaric rocket launchers in the past, notably to Ukrainian drones. The results, however, are never less than dramatic, with the thermobaric rockets used by the system resulting in
enormous secondary explosions, sending debris flying in all directions. The same is true of this apparently recent engagement, again pitting a Ukrainian drone against the notorious TOS-1.
View: https://twitter.com/SythUK/status/1768385592746705186?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1768385592746705186%7Ctwgr%5E2521aeb6ca6aa47eb5b9b46da4b858004f03f184%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.twz.com%2Fnews-features%2Fukraine-situation-report-putin-now-talking-about-creating-a-buffer-zone
Somewhat older developments from the battlefield next, but no less interesting. The following video is said to have been taken in late February, during house-to-house fighting in Krasnohorivka, in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine.
According to information provided along with the video, the footage was recorded by Ukrainian soldiers of the 3rd Assault Brigade, using GoPro cameras. The combat took place as the brigade prevented an attempted Russian breakthrough and ended with the Ukrainians clearing Krasnohorivka of enemy forces.
“We were assigned this task at 2:00 a.m. and in the morning we left,” Estet, a platoon commander with the 1st Assault Company, 2nd Assault Battalion, recalled.
Estet says that the Russians ignored the offer to surrender.
“Their skills were not at a high level,” Darvin, the acting commander of the 3rd Assault Company, added. “But the level of resilience and motivation was good. Even when they were surrounded, although they had no opportunity to retreat or run away, because they would have been killed immediately, they still fought and fought back. It cost us some effort to destroy them.”
While the Ukrainians relied heavily on grenades and first-person-view (FPV) drones, the video also shows how they used an M113 armored personnel carrier to ensure a rapid evacuation of casualties. They were ultimately successful in holding Krasnohorivka, denying the Russians a potential bridgehead for breaking through the front line.
The extensive Russian efforts to use electronic warfare on the battlefield appear to have led to a new development.
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According to Russian
reports, the mobile Borshchevik system is designed to detect Starlink terminals — which provide high-speed internet connections vital to Ukrainian battlefield communications — and the first examples are now being completed.
The same account claims that the mobile direction-finding complex “can detect the location of Starlink terminals at a distance of up to 10 kilometers [6.2 miles] with an accuracy of 60 meters [66 yards].”
“The complex can be installed on a vehicle chassis, which makes it convenient to use on the front line,” the source adds.
Details are now available for the following electronic warfare complex, described as a multi-frequency system and apparently seen undergoing trials in the Kherson region in southern Ukraine. The video is, however, further evidence that Ukraine is working hard to keep up with Russian developments in this field, in which it was regarded as something of a leader —
at least prior to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
View: https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1768004510243262541?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1768004510243262541%7Ctwgr%5E2521aeb6ca6aa47eb5b9b46da4b858004f03f184%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.twz.com%2Fnews-features%2Fukraine-situation-report-putin-now-talking-about-creating-a-buffer-zone
A new video reveals that Ukraine has received at least one more U.S.-made UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter, following
the appearance last year of the first example in service with the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, or GUR.
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