ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

northern watch

TB Fanatic
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northern watch

TB Fanatic
Caught at the wire
A scheme to use migrants to split the EU is likely to backfire

Belarus is shipping Iraqis to the Polish border and trapping them there

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The Economist
Nov 13th 2021

Alexander lukashenko, master tactician? The president of Belarus has brought thousands of migrants from the Middle East to the eu’s doorstep on the eve of winter, daring the bloc to abandon its humanitarian instincts as the world looks on. Mr Lukashenko seems to have intended to reignite the internal division and political upheaval that followed the influx of migrants to Europe in 2015. He has instead forged a consensus in favour of the swift punishment of his regime.

The scenes that have unfolded at the Polish-Belarusian border since November 8th were his concoction. Belarusian travel agents in Iraq offer flights, a visa and the sham promise of an easy path to a new life in Europe in exchange for thousands of dollars. Arrivals in Minsk are whisked through the woods to a spot on the border where, far from swiftly crossing into Poland and embarking on the supposed opportunity to move around the Schengen free-travel zone, migrants end up squeezed between the eu’s razor-wire fences and Belarusian men with guns, unable to go forward or back. As The Economist went to press on November 11th, some 2,000 were trapped near the current main point of concern, the Kuznica crossing (see map). There have been a number of attempts to breach the border there. An estimated 20,000 migrants are thought to be elsewhere in Belarus, with more still continuing to fly in via Istanbul and other Middle Eastern cities on Belavia, the Belarusian state carrier.

Mr Lukashenko’s foreign policy has increasingly resembled that of a mafia boss since his theft of elections last year. He has sent goons after dissidents who fled abroad. He is angry at the countries sheltering them, chiefly Poland and Lithuania, and at the entire eu for the sanctions it has imposed on his regime. The ambition of those sanctions was scaled back thanks to lobbying by affected industries, from Austrian banks to Lithuanian railways. Now the political will to deter Mr Lukashenko has hardened. The eu is hinting at fresh sanctions, including on Belavia, possibly as soon as next week. The hitherto hesitant Irish government, whose firms lease planes to the airline, has come on board.

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That does not mean that keeping migrants off the route to Belarus will be easy. The eu wants to install officials at airports across the Middle East to prod Iraqi passengers with awkward questions before they embark. But that will take time. Angela Merkel, Germany’s outgoing chancellor, has asked Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, to talk Mr Lukashenko out of his plotting. Her chances of success seem slim.

Poland sees deterrence as the best way to stem the influx, and so is determined not to admit any of the migrants gathering at its gates. Its populist government has waved away offers of help from Frontex, the eu’s border agency. A camp has sprung up on the Belarusian side, and a lengthy battle of wills is likely. Meanwhile, the migrants are in danger. A freezing winter approaches. And Mr Lukashenko is willing to make people suffer, if the television footage causes problems in Europe. ■

This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition under the headline "Caught at the wire"

A scheme to use migrants to split the EU is likely to backfire | The Economist
 

Techwreck

Veteran Member
I don't know that Putin's main concern is posing or optics, like our current regime's political wokesters.
I have much more faith in his words and actions aligning than Nato's Strategic Ambiscrewity.
 

danielboon

TB Fanatic
Ukraine says Russia has nearly 100,000 troops near its border
Reuters




1 minute read
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy attends a news briefing following the Ukraine-EU summit in Kyiv, Ukraine October 12, 2021. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy attends a news briefing following the Ukraine-EU summit in Kyiv, Ukraine October 12, 2021. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko
KYIV, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said there are nearly 100,000 Russian soldiers near Ukraine's border and that Western countries had shared information about active Russian troop movements with Kyiv.
"I hope the whole world can now clearly see who really wants peace and who is concentrating nearly 100,000 soldiers at our border," he said in a video of a speech on Wednesday carried on his website.
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The Russian troop movements near the Ukrainian border have spurred fears of a possible attack. Moscow has dismissed such suggestions as inflammatory and complained about increasing activity in the region by the NATO transatlantic alliance.
On Nov. 3, the Ukrainian Defence Ministry put the number of Russian troops near Ukraine's border at 90,000.
 

jward

passin' thru
Dead is Dead, Fred. Plenty o' folks wanna use it to further their aims, so. . .guess the ghouls r fixin' to get closer to getting their formal fightin' on
 

jward

passin' thru
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3



Update: The UN Security Council held an urgent meeting on the crisis on the Polish-Belarusian border. The initiators were France, Ireland and Estonia. The meeting was held behind closed doors. What decisions were made is still unknown to the general public.
 

Zagdid

Veteran Member
The threat to cut off gas supplies by Belarus is a master level game play. Changing the scope of the argument surrounding the Nord 2 pipeline that bypasses, Belarus, Poland and Ukraine. Russia is waiting for certification (being delayed by political pressure from the west) of the Nord 2 so they can deliver gas directly to Europe and isolate the Ukraine. Making Belarus the 'bad' guy promotes Nord 2 certification as a strategic response. Winter is coming!


11 NOV, 22:43
Ukrainian government claims it is at ‘energy war’ with Russia
Ukraine earlier claimed that Russia had blocked coal deliveries to Ukraine from Kazakhstan

KIEV, November 12. /TASS/. Ukraine is de-facto in the state of an ‘energy war’ with Russia, Ukrainian Deputy Energy Minister Maxim Nemchinov told the 1+1 TV channel early on Friday.

"Today, we are de-facto in the state of an energy war with Russia, which is blocking imports from Kazakhstan by not letting rail carriages with coal to travel to Ukraine and constantly reducing the contracted amounts of gas transit. In other words, they do everything to make us feel this energy crisis," he said.

Earlier, Andrei Gerus, the chairman of Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada committee for energy and public utilities, claimed that Russia had blocked coal deliveries to Ukraine from Kazakhstan. At the same time, Kazakhstan’s ministry of industry and infrastructure development did not confirm these reports, saying that Russia did not block the deliveries, but "there are certain limitations due to the load on Russian infrastructure."

On October 29, Ukraine announced that Russia had stopped thermal coal supplies to the country. The Russian Ministry of Economic Development, in turn, said that the move stemmed from a rise in domestic demand during the fall and winter season. The ministry stressed that given the ongoing supply of other coal types, Russian companies would account for more than half of coal supplies to Ukraine in November.

Besides, Kiev has repeatedly accused Russia of using gas supplies as a "geopolitical weapon." The Ukrainian government said on many occasions that the implementation of the Nord Stream 2 project allegedly poses a threat to Ukraine's energy security. The Russian side has repeatedly stressed that Nord Stream 2 is a commercial project, and Moscow has never used its energy resources as an instrument of pressure.

Gas supplies
Commenting on gas supplies to Ukraine, Nemchinov said his country was negotiating direct supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar via terminals in Poland.

"Indeed, we are working on direct contracts with Qatar. It’s a difficult story, but we are working on that, really," he said, adding that the deliveries will be carried via two terminals in Poland, Gdansk and Swinoujscie.

"The capacity of Ukrainian-Polish gas infrastructure is not particularly big. We are working to increase it and get an opportunity to receive LNG from these two terminals under a direct contract with Qatar," the deputy minister added.

Earlier, the office of the Ukrainian president said Vladimir Zelensky met with Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani on the sidelines of the 26th UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) to discuss the possibility of LNG deliveries from Qatar.
 

Capt. Eddie

Veteran Member
The threat to cut off gas supplies by Belarus is a master level game play. Changing the scope of the argument surrounding the Nord 2 pipeline that bypasses, Belarus, Poland and Ukraine. Russia is waiting for certification (being delayed by political pressure from the west) of the Nord 2 so they can deliver gas directly to Europe and isolate the Ukraine. Making Belarus the 'bad' guy promotes Nord 2 certification as a strategic response. Winter is coming!
That is the best, most concise explanation of all these shenanigans I've seen yet.
 

Cyanatic

Contributing Member
Photos at link. I cannot get them to post, sorry

Poland is braced for major attack by 'weaponised' migrants from Belarus TONIGHT aiming to reach EU | Daily Mail Online

EXCLUSIVE: Poland is braced for major attack by 'weaponised' migrants from Belarus TONIGHT: New column of desperate Middle East refugees is headed to border after some were ARMED by dictator's troops
  • The Polish Border Force is expecting a major assault at the Belarusian border by armed migrants tonight
  • They say Belarusian soldiers are arming and instructing migrants to attempt to cross into the EU state
  • Attacks in two separate remote border locations yesterday saw hundreds of migrants manage to enter Poland
  • Polish Border Force guards say 77 were captured and deported but around 150 managed to escape
By NICK FAGGE AT THE POLAND - BELARUS BORDER and WILL STEWART FOR THE DAILY MAIL
PUBLISHED: 10:24 EST, 14 November 2021 | UPDATED: 11:24 EST, 14 November 2021

Poland is braced for a major assault by migrants on its frontier with Belarus tonight after receiving intelligence of a huge build up of enemy troops.

Polish Border Force guards claim their Belarusian counterparts are issuing the thousands of stranded migrants with instructions, equipment and weapons to force their way into the EU.

The attack is believed to be planned for frontier at Kuznica, one of two main crossing points from Poland to Belarus.

A spokesman for the Polish Border Force told MailOnline: 'After a 'quiet' night in the vicinity of the camp in Kuznica, we are currently observing that more groups of armed officers of Belarusian services are located in the place.

'We are noticing a commotion among migrants. There is also a TV broadcast van.'

He added: 'Some tents are starting to disappear. Migrants get instructions, equipment and gas from Belarusian services.
'You can see that the Belarus side is getting ready today for a big attempt at crossing the border.

'Our forces are ready for action.'

It comes after the Polish Border Force said Belarusian soldiers engineered two mass migrant incursions into Poland last night in which some 77 people were detained and deported.

An estimated 150 others evaded capture and are now seeking sanctuary in the EU state.

Security Services Minister Stanislaw Zaryn said that 'more people are appearing on the side of Belarus at the border with Poland, escalating the situation.'

Posting a photo of a uniformed man on Twitter, he said: 'This man fired shots in the air, then tried to damage the Polish border barrier.'

Meanwhile, Poland's Ministry of National Defence posted a video showing hundreds of migrants behind barbed wire fencing on the Belarusian side of the border, saying: 'Additional officers of the Belarusian services have arrived in the Kuznica region. There is a noticeable movement among migrants.'

Around 50 migrants are said to have broken through the Polish-Belarusian border on Saturday near the village of Starzyna.

Poland has close to 15,000 troops, border guards and police are currently on the border.

NGO Grupa Granica said in a statement it had received information about attempts by Belarus to force migrants to use violence against Polish officers.

'Due to the risk of escalation of violence we want to remind all parties that migrants are not aggressors but hostages of Lukashenko's regime,' it wrote.

The Belarusian State Border Guard Committee spokesperson Anton Bychkovsky said the accusations were disinformation. 'It does not correspond with the reality,' he said

The Polish Prime Minister today called on NATO to take 'concrete steps' to resolve the migrant crisis on the Belarus border, adding that Poland, Lithuania and Latvia may ask for consultations under Article 4 of the alliance's treaty.

Under Article 4, any ally can request consultations whenever they feel their territorial integrity, political independence or security is threatened.

'It is not enough just for us to publicly express our concern - now we need concrete steps and the commitment of the entire alliance,' Mateusz Morawiecki told Polish state-run news agency PAP.

Morawiecki's statements came the morning after Belarusian authorities ordered troops to help asylum seekers break through the frontier fence at two remote locations last night near the towns of Dubicze Cerkiewne and Kolonia Klulowicze, away from the main focus Poland’s defences.

The Polish Border Force detained some 77 people and deported them back to Belarus but an estimated 150 others evaded capture and are now seeking sanctuary in the EU state.

A Border Force spokesman told MailOnline: ‘Last night there were two attempts to cross the border from Belarus by force, at Dubicze Cerkiewne and Kolonia Klukowicze.

‘Yesterday we recorded 223 attempts to illegally cross the border from Belarus.

‘Deportation from the Republic of Poland orders were issued against 77 people.’

The spokesman could not explain what had happened to the 146 others who had crossed into Poland illegally.

Yesterday patrols of Polish soldiers could be seen rushing up and down the border in search of the fugitive migrants.

Armed with machine guns, telescopic rifles, night-vision goggles and radios one patrol halted two groups of tourists at a well-known nature viewpoint close to the border in the Bialowieza Forest.

The day-trippers were ordered to show their ID papers and account for their movements by a nervous Polish Army officer who poured over a detailed map of the forest – which spans the frontier with Belarus.

The viewpoint looks onto woods and swamp land where moose graze and is one of the last natural habitats of the European bison.

Yesterday Warsaw revealed how Belarus was arming migrants with tear gas and knocking down border posts to push the asylum seekers over the border to Poland.

British Army engineers have been drafted in to help Poland shore up their frontier, while Russian paratroopers carried out a military exercise close to the frontier in a show of support to Belarus.

British special forces are put on alert to be deployed to Ukraine as size of Red Army on border swells to 100,000 troops and Russian Navy tracks US warships in the Black Sea

A task force of up to 600 UK troops is on standby to deploy in Ukraine amid fears that Russian troops massing near the border are planning an invasion.

Units from the SAS and Parachute Regiment are preparing for an urgent deployment after defence chiefs and the head of MI6 advised Downing Street that Russian troop movement represents a clear and present danger to Ukraine and the West.
'The high readiness element of the brigade was told it may need to deploy at very short notice,' a source told the Mirror.
'Between 400 and 600 troops are ready. Their equipment is packed and they are ready to fly to Ukraine and either land or parachute in. They have trained for both eventualities.'

It comes amid rising tensions in Europe as Foreign Secretary Liz Truss urged Russia's President Vladimir Putin to intervene in the 'shameful manufactured migrant crisis' unfolding at the border between Belarus and Poland.

Liz Truss today declared that Russia has a 'clear responsibility' to end the escalating migrant stand-off, adding the UK 'will not look away' as a large number of migrants gather on the Belarusian side of the border, with Polish authorities reporting daily new attempts by the migrants to breach the divide.
 
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