ALERT Regional middleast war thread Israel and Iran at war
- Thread starter danielboon
- Start date
jward
passin' thru
Raylan Givens
@JewishWarrior13
Breaking: It seems that Rafah will NOT be happening, according to a Senior Israeli official. The Egyptians are horrified by the idea of IDF going into Rafah and putting a hostage deal on the table and are guaranteeing that Hamas will accept it. Hamas also understands that without an agreement, the IDF will enter Rafah, and it will be all over for them—details to follow.
6:27 AM · Apr 26, 2024
4,533
Views
@JewishWarrior13
Breaking: It seems that Rafah will NOT be happening, according to a Senior Israeli official. The Egyptians are horrified by the idea of IDF going into Rafah and putting a hostage deal on the table and are guaranteeing that Hamas will accept it. Hamas also understands that without an agreement, the IDF will enter Rafah, and it will be all over for them—details to follow.
6:27 AM · Apr 26, 2024
4,533
Views
jward
passin' thru
ChinaDiplomacy
It followed a report from Riyadh-based Arab News that Hamas and Fatah were holding talks in Beijing on Friday aiming to end their internal divisions.
The foreign ministry has not responded to a request for comment from the Post.
The report came after a major power shuffle in the Fatah-led West Bank as Washington pressured the party to step into the Israel-Gaza war and prepare post-war reforms in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip.
Following last year’s peace deal reached between China, Iran and Saudi Arabia, Beijing said it was willing to mediate in the Israel-Gaza conflict.
Beijing has not condemned Hamas for the October 7 attack on Israel despite pressure from the West.
As strikes pummel Gaza, Israel says US military aid sends ‘strong message’ to enemies
Last month, the Palestinian Authority, the Fatah-led interim governing body, formed a government led by newly appointed Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa, who said ending the war was a “top national priority”.
But Hamas, which overturned the Palestinian Authority’s rule in Gaza 17 years ago, opposed the move, saying the change was “a reinforcement of a policy of exclusion and the deepening of division”.
In an official statement with other Palestinian factions, Hamas said the new government pointed to a “huge gap between the [Palestinian] Authority and the people, their concerns and their aspirations”.
In response, Fatah said Hamas’ “October 7 adventure … caused the return of the Israeli occupation of Gaza”, and led to a “catastrophe even more horrible and cruel than that of 1948”, referring to a war during which Israel was established, resulting in the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians.
China, like most countries that recognise Palestine, regards the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority as the legitimate government. But Beijing has also maintained communication with Hamas.
The only publicly acknowledged meeting between the two sides since the war erupted was in March when Chinese envoy Wang Kejian met Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’ political bureau, in Qatar.
After a tour of the Middle East last month aimed at laying the groundwork for a ceasefire and improving humanitarian conditions in the Gaza Strip, Wang told China’s state-owned CGTN Arabic that Haniyeh, along with other Arab leaders “expressed their aspiration and hope for a greater role for China”.
Beijing has sought a more proactive role in Middle East affairs beyond economic influence after it brokered the Riyadh-Tehran peace deal last year.
Washington, the major player in the region for decades, has also called on Beijing to help rein in the regional conflict, including the crisis in the Red Sea, as well as issues related to Iran.
In Hamas video, US-Israeli hostage says living in Gaza ‘hell’
Earlier this month, as Iran and Israel exchanged air strikes, China called on Iran and Saudi Arabia to limit the escalating spillovers of the Israel-Gaza war.
Tehran told Beijing that it would exercise restraint and would not escalate the situation.
During an interview with Doha-based Al-Jazeera on Thursday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Beijing would “firmly support” internal reconciliation among Palestinian factions through dialogue.
He reaffirmed that Beijing supported Palestine’s full membership of the United Nations, which was vetoed by the US earlier this month, and supported Palestinian nationhood and the right to self-government.
“We advocate convening a larger, more authoritative, and more effective international peace conference as soon as possible, and formulating a concrete timetable and road map to implement the two-state solution,” Wang said in the interview.
“Ultimately, [We should] achieve the peaceful coexistence of the two states of Palestine and Israel and the harmonious coexistence of the two peoples – the Arabs and the Jews.”
Israel prepares forces as conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon intensifies
The Palestinian death toll on the Gaza Strip had risen to more than 34,000, according to the Hamas-run health body in the area.
Israel said the Hamas rampage through the southern Israeli border on October 7 killed 1,200 people, with more than 200 others taken hostage.
In February, former Palestinian prime minister Mohammad Shtayyeh met Hamas officials in Moscow, with the parties agreeing on the need for an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the creation of a Palestinian state.
www.scmp.com
China hosts talks between rival Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah in bid to end internal divisions: report
- Report comes after major power shuffle in the Palestinian Authority aimed at ending Israel-Gaza war
- Beijing says it is willing to mediate the conflict following last year’s peace deal between China, Iran and Saudi Arabia
It followed a report from Riyadh-based Arab News that Hamas and Fatah were holding talks in Beijing on Friday aiming to end their internal divisions.
The foreign ministry has not responded to a request for comment from the Post.
The report came after a major power shuffle in the Fatah-led West Bank as Washington pressured the party to step into the Israel-Gaza war and prepare post-war reforms in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip.
Following last year’s peace deal reached between China, Iran and Saudi Arabia, Beijing said it was willing to mediate in the Israel-Gaza conflict.
Beijing has not condemned Hamas for the October 7 attack on Israel despite pressure from the West.
As strikes pummel Gaza, Israel says US military aid sends ‘strong message’ to enemies
24 Apr 2024
Last month, the Palestinian Authority, the Fatah-led interim governing body, formed a government led by newly appointed Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa, who said ending the war was a “top national priority”.But Hamas, which overturned the Palestinian Authority’s rule in Gaza 17 years ago, opposed the move, saying the change was “a reinforcement of a policy of exclusion and the deepening of division”.
In an official statement with other Palestinian factions, Hamas said the new government pointed to a “huge gap between the [Palestinian] Authority and the people, their concerns and their aspirations”.
In response, Fatah said Hamas’ “October 7 adventure … caused the return of the Israeli occupation of Gaza”, and led to a “catastrophe even more horrible and cruel than that of 1948”, referring to a war during which Israel was established, resulting in the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians.
China, like most countries that recognise Palestine, regards the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority as the legitimate government. But Beijing has also maintained communication with Hamas.
The only publicly acknowledged meeting between the two sides since the war erupted was in March when Chinese envoy Wang Kejian met Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’ political bureau, in Qatar.
After a tour of the Middle East last month aimed at laying the groundwork for a ceasefire and improving humanitarian conditions in the Gaza Strip, Wang told China’s state-owned CGTN Arabic that Haniyeh, along with other Arab leaders “expressed their aspiration and hope for a greater role for China”.
Beijing has sought a more proactive role in Middle East affairs beyond economic influence after it brokered the Riyadh-Tehran peace deal last year.
Washington, the major player in the region for decades, has also called on Beijing to help rein in the regional conflict, including the crisis in the Red Sea, as well as issues related to Iran.
In Hamas video, US-Israeli hostage says living in Gaza ‘hell’
25 Apr 2024
Earlier this month, as Iran and Israel exchanged air strikes, China called on Iran and Saudi Arabia to limit the escalating spillovers of the Israel-Gaza war.Tehran told Beijing that it would exercise restraint and would not escalate the situation.
During an interview with Doha-based Al-Jazeera on Thursday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Beijing would “firmly support” internal reconciliation among Palestinian factions through dialogue.
He reaffirmed that Beijing supported Palestine’s full membership of the United Nations, which was vetoed by the US earlier this month, and supported Palestinian nationhood and the right to self-government.
“We advocate convening a larger, more authoritative, and more effective international peace conference as soon as possible, and formulating a concrete timetable and road map to implement the two-state solution,” Wang said in the interview.
“Ultimately, [We should] achieve the peaceful coexistence of the two states of Palestine and Israel and the harmonious coexistence of the two peoples – the Arabs and the Jews.”
Israel prepares forces as conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon intensifies
26 Apr 2024
The Palestinian death toll on the Gaza Strip had risen to more than 34,000, according to the Hamas-run health body in the area.Israel said the Hamas rampage through the southern Israeli border on October 7 killed 1,200 people, with more than 200 others taken hostage.
In February, former Palestinian prime minister Mohammad Shtayyeh met Hamas officials in Moscow, with the parties agreeing on the need for an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the creation of a Palestinian state.
China hosts talks between Palestinian factions Hamas, Fatah: report
Report comes after a major power shuffle in the Palestinian Authority aimed at ending the Israel-Gaza war.
www.scmp.com
jward
passin' thru
Mossad Commentary
@MOSSADil
The offer that the Egyptians submitted to Israel: 20 hostages in exchange for a three-week truce and the halting of the planned operation in Rafah
7:10 AM · Apr 26, 2024
4,770
Views
@MOSSADil
The offer that the Egyptians submitted to Israel: 20 hostages in exchange for a three-week truce and the halting of the planned operation in Rafah
7:10 AM · Apr 26, 2024
4,770
Views
we need to change the name of the white house to the waffle house
jward
passin' thru
iirc we knew even as they announced the "unprecedented sanction" that the intent was to walk it back after the useful idiots registered it as a win :: shrug ::
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
DANG IT!!!!
Ya not only got them on the ropes but HANGING on the ropes only by the edge ONE of their gloves and ya BACK OFF!!! WTactual F!!!!
Ya not only got them on the ropes but HANGING on the ropes only by the edge ONE of their gloves and ya BACK OFF!!! WTactual F!!!!
jward
passin' thru
Joe Truzman
@JoeTruzman
Interesting report: Israel warned Assad not to open a front against it or else he would be overthrown.
View: https://twitter.com/JoeTruzman/status/1783837974297464909
jward
passin' thru
Joe Truzman
@JoeTruzman
Lebanese sources reporting a targeted strike against a vehicle in the Beqaa Valley. The strike is deeper inside Lebanon than the usual Israeli attacks on Hezbollah.
View: https://twitter.com/JoeTruzman/status/1783868954475471312
Israel Radar
@IsraelRadar_com
Reports from Lebanon: Israeli strike targets vehicle deep in Lebanese territory; casualties reported. via @N12News
9:47 AM · Apr 26, 2024
4,274
Views
@JoeTruzman
Lebanese sources reporting a targeted strike against a vehicle in the Beqaa Valley. The strike is deeper inside Lebanon than the usual Israeli attacks on Hezbollah.
View: https://twitter.com/JoeTruzman/status/1783868954475471312
Israel Radar
@IsraelRadar_com
Reports from Lebanon: Israeli strike targets vehicle deep in Lebanese territory; casualties reported. via @N12News
9:47 AM · Apr 26, 2024
4,274
Views
jward
passin' thru
War Monitor
@WarMonitors
12m
️Unconfirmed reports suggesting that Ben Gvir's car overturned a few moments ago
View: https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1783874349910380702
War Monitor
@WarMonitors
️#BREAKING It has been confirmed that Ben Gvir is injured as a result of his car crashing
10:04 AM · Apr 26, 2024
40.1K
Views
Faytuks News Δ
@Faytuks
NOW: Israel's National Security Minister Ben-Gvir has been taken to hospital after a car accident
@WarMonitors
12m
️Unconfirmed reports suggesting that Ben Gvir's car overturned a few moments agoView: https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1783874349910380702
War Monitor
@WarMonitors
️#BREAKING It has been confirmed that Ben Gvir is injured as a result of his car crashing10:04 AM · Apr 26, 2024
40.1K
Views
Faytuks News Δ
@Faytuks
NOW: Israel's National Security Minister Ben-Gvir has been taken to hospital after a car accident
Last edited:
jward
passin' thru
Amichai Stein
@AmichaiStein1
51m
#BREAKING: Israeli officials told an Egyptian delegation visiting Israel: the attemps now to reach a hostage deal is "the last chance" before it starts the Rafah operation. "We won't agree to the usuall attemps by Hamas to drag things, we will conduct an operation in Rafah"
@AmichaiStein1
51m
#BREAKING: Israeli officials told an Egyptian delegation visiting Israel: the attemps now to reach a hostage deal is "the last chance" before it starts the Rafah operation. "We won't agree to the usuall attemps by Hamas to drag things, we will conduct an operation in Rafah"
jward
passin' thru
Iran International English
@IranIntl_En
Former CIA Director and retired US Army Gen. David Petraeus told @NEWSMAX when he led @CENTCOM from 2008-2010, the US “developed a plan to destroy the Iranian nuclear program and also rehearsed it at that moment,as well."
He said Israel doesn't have all the capabilities the US has to destroy Iran's nuclear program by itself and will need to rely on help from the US.
10:46 PM · Apr 26, 2024
563
Views
@IranIntl_En
Former CIA Director and retired US Army Gen. David Petraeus told @NEWSMAX when he led @CENTCOM from 2008-2010, the US “developed a plan to destroy the Iranian nuclear program and also rehearsed it at that moment,as well."
He said Israel doesn't have all the capabilities the US has to destroy Iran's nuclear program by itself and will need to rely on help from the US.
10:46 PM · Apr 26, 2024
563
Views
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
****SIGH****
David. WHY?? WHY you open yer yap??
****SIGH****
David. WHY?? WHY you open yer yap??
****SIGH****
Probably wants to get the guest expert calls back up for another book or he's a small contributing cog in a disinformation campaign.
IMHO the IDF has the in house capacity to go it alone against the Iranian WMD program even in a single day with the capabilities they demonstrated last week.
The problem with that "single day" scenario is the background count down wind from those sites, even if only HE were used as well as the need to remove as much as possible Hezbollah/IRGC/Houthi capabilities within artillery rocket and SRBM ranges from Israel first.
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jward
passin' thru
Omar Abu Layla
@OALD24
Hezbollah's Deputy Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, threatens Israel in a different way:
“ Let Gallant, the enemy's Defense Minister who threatened and said that the main goal is to return the residents of the north to their homes, know this: in war, the residents of the north cannot be returned.
Instead, this war will further distance their return, and it may end their return permanently.”
@OALD24
Hezbollah's Deputy Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, threatens Israel in a different way:
“ Let Gallant, the enemy's Defense Minister who threatened and said that the main goal is to return the residents of the north to their homes, know this: in war, the residents of the north cannot be returned.
Instead, this war will further distance their return, and it may end their return permanently.”
jward
passin' thru
Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian
@manniefabian
Israeli aircraft carried out strikes against some 25 targets in the Gaza Strip over the past day, the military says.
One drone strike hit a rocket launching position that the IDF says was used in previous attacks on the southern city of Ashdod.
Another rocket launching site was hit overnight in southern Gaza's Khan Younis, which the IDF says was used in attacks on troops inside Gaza.
In central Gaza, the IDF says reservists of the Yiftah Brigade spotted a cell of gunmen preparing to open fire at troops from a building, before calling in a fighter jet airstrike, killing the operatives.
Another airstrike directed by troops in central Gaza struck a vehicle with eight Hamas operatives in it, the military says.
The IDF says additional airstrikes targeted buildings used by terror groups, weapon depots, underground sites, and other infrastructure.
@manniefabian
Israeli aircraft carried out strikes against some 25 targets in the Gaza Strip over the past day, the military says.
One drone strike hit a rocket launching position that the IDF says was used in previous attacks on the southern city of Ashdod.
Another rocket launching site was hit overnight in southern Gaza's Khan Younis, which the IDF says was used in attacks on troops inside Gaza.
In central Gaza, the IDF says reservists of the Yiftah Brigade spotted a cell of gunmen preparing to open fire at troops from a building, before calling in a fighter jet airstrike, killing the operatives.
Another airstrike directed by troops in central Gaza struck a vehicle with eight Hamas operatives in it, the military says.
The IDF says additional airstrikes targeted buildings used by terror groups, weapon depots, underground sites, and other infrastructure.
jward
passin' thru
He has put out some statements, though off the top o' my head I couldn't list the bullet points he's made thus far.
jward
passin' thru
Omar Abu Layla
@OALD24
Rafik Fayez Hassan and Faraj Allah Ali Hamoud, leaders of Hezbollah, were killed following Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon.
The new development in the matter is the increasing number of Hezbollah casualties, along with the escalation of destruction and devastation.
@OALD24
Rafik Fayez Hassan and Faraj Allah Ali Hamoud, leaders of Hezbollah, were killed following Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon.
The new development in the matter is the increasing number of Hezbollah casualties, along with the escalation of destruction and devastation.
jward
passin' thru
Megatron
@Megatron_ron
NEW:
The International Criminal Court in The Hague is preparing to issue ARREST warrants for Netanyahu and Israeli government members - Channel 12
The Israeli National Security Council held secret discussions on the possibility of issuing international arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Army Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, a local media outlet reported Wednesday, Channel 13 wrote.
"According to the information and indications available to senior officials in Israel, there is a possibility that the International Criminal Court in The Hague will issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant and Halevi," the channel added.
It said that as part of the discussions, several immediate measures were approved for Israel to take in response to this potential move, including "launching a political campaign" at the international level against it.
The channel revealed that Netanyahu would hold talks later Wednesday with his counterparts from the Netherlands, the Czech Republic and Austria as part of efforts to prevent the potential step.
Meanwhile, Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer and Israel's ambassador to the US, Michael Herzog, would contact the US Congress and President Joe Biden's administration.
The indictment against these war criminals will be in connection with the genocide that Israel committed in Gaza
The Spectator Index
@spectatorindex
JUST IN: Netanyahu says that 'Israel will never accept any attempt by the International Criminal Court in the Hague to undermine its basic right to defend itself'
2:56 PM · Apr 26, 2024
304.4K
Views
@Megatron_ron
NEW:
The International Criminal Court in The Hague is preparing to issue ARREST warrants for Netanyahu and Israeli government members - Channel 12
The Israeli National Security Council held secret discussions on the possibility of issuing international arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Army Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, a local media outlet reported Wednesday, Channel 13 wrote.
"According to the information and indications available to senior officials in Israel, there is a possibility that the International Criminal Court in The Hague will issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant and Halevi," the channel added.
It said that as part of the discussions, several immediate measures were approved for Israel to take in response to this potential move, including "launching a political campaign" at the international level against it.
The channel revealed that Netanyahu would hold talks later Wednesday with his counterparts from the Netherlands, the Czech Republic and Austria as part of efforts to prevent the potential step.
Meanwhile, Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer and Israel's ambassador to the US, Michael Herzog, would contact the US Congress and President Joe Biden's administration.
The indictment against these war criminals will be in connection with the genocide that Israel committed in Gaza
The Spectator Index
@spectatorindex
JUST IN: Netanyahu says that 'Israel will never accept any attempt by the International Criminal Court in the Hague to undermine its basic right to defend itself'
2:56 PM · Apr 26, 2024
304.4K
Views
jward
passin' thru
I'd say this was pretty true for the duration- but there is some uptick in US fortifications in NES, so Israel may well be gettin ready to make something- or someone- go *boom*
Omar Abu Layla
@OALD24
I would repeat this for today:
Be vigilant and don't believe the calmness on the fronts in Lebanon.
It could explode at any moment
8:45 AM · Apr 27, 2024
2,475
Views
Omar Abu Layla
@OALD24
I would repeat this for today:
Be vigilant and don't believe the calmness on the fronts in Lebanon.
It could explode at any moment
8:45 AM · Apr 27, 2024
2,475
Views
jward
passin' thru
Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian
@manniefabian
The Hamas terror group has published a new propaganda video showing signs of life from hostages Keith Siegel, 64, and Omri Miran, 46.
In the edited three-minute-long video, Siegel and Miran identify themselves and say they are hoping for a hostage deal that would see them and other hostages returned home.
The video is not dated, but Miran says he has been held captive for 202 days and Siegel mentions the Passover holiday, indicating the clips were filmed recently.
Siegel, a US citizen, was taken captive with his wife from their home in Kibbutz Kfar Aza on October 7. His wife Aviva Siegel was later released in the November deal. Miran was taken captive by Hamas terrorists from Kibbutz Nir Oz during the onslaught.
Hamas has previously issued similar videos of hostages it is holding, in what Israel says is deplorable psychological warfare.
Most Israeli media do not carry the video clips themselves.
View: https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1784243498784329940
@manniefabian
The Hamas terror group has published a new propaganda video showing signs of life from hostages Keith Siegel, 64, and Omri Miran, 46.
In the edited three-minute-long video, Siegel and Miran identify themselves and say they are hoping for a hostage deal that would see them and other hostages returned home.
The video is not dated, but Miran says he has been held captive for 202 days and Siegel mentions the Passover holiday, indicating the clips were filmed recently.
Siegel, a US citizen, was taken captive with his wife from their home in Kibbutz Kfar Aza on October 7. His wife Aviva Siegel was later released in the November deal. Miran was taken captive by Hamas terrorists from Kibbutz Nir Oz during the onslaught.
Hamas has previously issued similar videos of hostages it is holding, in what Israel says is deplorable psychological warfare.
Most Israeli media do not carry the video clips themselves.
View: https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1784243498784329940
jward
passin' thru
Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
ISRAELI MINISTER HAIM BITON INVOLVED IN SERIOUS CAR ACCIDENT
Education Minister Haim Biton's car was destroyed in a traffic accident, reportedly resulting in serious injuries to his father.
This incident occurred just one day after National Security Minister Ben-Gvir's car crash.
jward
passin' thru
Yaari Cohen
@YaariCohen
Yesterday I watched one of the most disturbing films of my life.
Sheryl Sandberg, former COO of Meta, made an hour-long documentary film with never-before-heard eyewitness accounts from released hostages, survivors, and first responders.
The film is certainly one of the most difficult pieces of footage I have ever watched, if not the single most difficult. Every part of the film is absolutely horrifying beyond words, but one part stood out to me like no other, and I included it here for you to watch in order to encourage you to share and watch the full film:
Amit Susanna, the first hostage to come out and in her own voice tell the world how she was sexually assaulted by her Hamas captors in Gaza, recounts the moments of her kidnapping and what she feared most.
Please, watch the full movie.
full movie can be found on you tube; adjust the address as necessary to watch the hour long production, and please remember that secondary and tertiary trauma are real things as you consider whether or not to view:
View: https://twitter.com/YaariCohen/status/1784217216067465403
@YaariCohen
Yesterday I watched one of the most disturbing films of my life.
Sheryl Sandberg, former COO of Meta, made an hour-long documentary film with never-before-heard eyewitness accounts from released hostages, survivors, and first responders.
The film is certainly one of the most difficult pieces of footage I have ever watched, if not the single most difficult. Every part of the film is absolutely horrifying beyond words, but one part stood out to me like no other, and I included it here for you to watch in order to encourage you to share and watch the full film:
Amit Susanna, the first hostage to come out and in her own voice tell the world how she was sexually assaulted by her Hamas captors in Gaza, recounts the moments of her kidnapping and what she feared most.
Please, watch the full movie.
full movie can be found on you tube; adjust the address as necessary to watch the hour long production, and please remember that secondary and tertiary trauma are real things as you consider whether or not to view:
Screams Before Silence
View: https://twitter.com/YaariCohen/status/1784217216067465403
jward
passin' thru
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
An Employee of the National Call Center for the “Magen David Adom” Ambulance Service, who was working the Morning of the October 7th Massacre in Southern Israel and had to listen to Hundreds of Traumatizing Calls, has reportedly committed Suicide by Hanging at her Home in Ramat Gan.
4:25 PM · Apr 27, 2024
126.6K
Views
@sentdefender
An Employee of the National Call Center for the “Magen David Adom” Ambulance Service, who was working the Morning of the October 7th Massacre in Southern Israel and had to listen to Hundreds of Traumatizing Calls, has reportedly committed Suicide by Hanging at her Home in Ramat Gan.
4:25 PM · Apr 27, 2024
126.6K
Views
jward
passin' thru
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
U.K. Defense Officials have told the BBC that they are considering the Deployment of British Ground Troops into Central Gaza to assist in the Transport and Distribution of Humanitarian Aid from the U.S. Army’s Joint Logistics Over-The-Shore (JLOTS) Floating Dock and the Temporary Jetty being Constructed by the Israel Defense Force; the Soldiers would be used to Drive Trucks filled with Humanitarian Aid from the Floating Dock to the Shore, and would not be utilized in a Combat Role.
@sentdefender
U.K. Defense Officials have told the BBC that they are considering the Deployment of British Ground Troops into Central Gaza to assist in the Transport and Distribution of Humanitarian Aid from the U.S. Army’s Joint Logistics Over-The-Shore (JLOTS) Floating Dock and the Temporary Jetty being Constructed by the Israel Defense Force; the Soldiers would be used to Drive Trucks filled with Humanitarian Aid from the Floating Dock to the Shore, and would not be utilized in a Combat Role.
Posted for fair use.......
thebulletin.org
On April 19, Israel carried out a strike deep inside Iranian territory, near the city of Isfahan. The attack was apparently in retaliation for a major Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel a few days earlier. This exchange between the two countries—which have historically avoided directly targeting each other’s territories—has raised fears of a potentially serious military escalation in the region.
Israel’s strike was carried out against an Iranian military site located in close proximity to the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, which hosts nuclear research reactors, a uranium conversion plant, and a fuel production plant, among other facilities. Although the attack did not target Iran’s nuclear facilities directly, earlier reports suggested that Israel was considering such attacks. The Iranian leadership has, in turn, threatened to reconsider its nuclear policy and to advance its program should nuclear sites be attacked.
These events highlight the threat from regional escalation dynamics posed by Iran’s near-threshold nuclear capability, which grants Iran the perception of a certain degree of deterrence—at least against direct US retaliation—while also serving as an understandably tempting target for Israeli attack. As tensions between Israel and Iran have moved away from their traditional proxy nature and manifested as direct strikes against each other’s territories, the urgency of finding a timely and non-military solution to the Iranian nuclear issue has increased.
A tempting target. While the current assessment is that Iran does not possess nuclear weapons, the Islamic Republic maintains a very advanced nuclear program, allowing it to develop a nuclear weapons capability relatively rapidly, should it decide to do so. Iran’s “near-threshold” capability did not deter Israel from undertaking its recent attack. But Iran’s nuclear program is a tempting target for an attack that could have potentially destabilizing ramification: The program is advanced enough to pose a credible risk of rapid weaponization and at a stage when it could still be significantly degraded, albeit at an extremely high cost.
Iran views its nuclear program as a deterrent against direct US strikes on or invasion of its territory, acting as an insurance policy of sorts against invasion following erroneous Western accusations over its nuclear program, ala Iraq in 2003. That’s to say, during an attempted invasion, Iran could quickly produce nuclear weapons. This capability allows Iran’s leadership to engage in destabilizing activities in the region with a (perceived) limited likelihood of retaliation against its own territory. Concerns over escalation and a potential Iranian push toward weaponization of its nuclear program may have been one of multiple considerations that contributed to the US refusal to take part in Israeli retaliatory action following Iran’s April 13 strikes on Israel.
Israel sees the Iranian nuclear program as an existential threat and has long sought its elimination. For this reason, reports that Israel might have been preparing to target Iranian nuclear sites as retaliation for Iran’s strikes against its territory came as little surprise. Israel’s attack on military installations near Iranian nuclear facilities—and against an air defense system that Iran has deployed to protect its nuclear sites—appears to have been calibrated precisely to make the point that Israel has the capability to directly attack heavily-protected nuclear sites deep inside Iran. Some commentators have speculated that subsequent strikes on Iranian nuclear sites may still be desirable or necessary.
Iran’s nuclear facilities as of April 2024. On April 19, Israel carried out a strike on the Eighth Shekari Air Base, near the city of Isfahan. The air base is located only about 22 kilometers north from the Isfahan nuclear complex and about 105 kilometers south of the Natanz uranium enrichment plant. (Credit: Map by Erik English. Sources: IAEA, Iran Watch, ISIS, NTI, WNA, WNISR)
In this context, Iran’s nuclear sites will continue to present a tempting target for Israel in any further escalation of the conflict between the two. Moreover, Israel may also conclude that its own undeclared nuclear capability has failed to act as a deterrent against two major assaults on its territory. The attacks by Hamas on October 7 and Iran on April 13 probably added to Israel’s sense of strategic vulnerability, although that perception may have been partly alleviated by the largely successful defense against Iran’s attempted drone and missile strikes.
Israel has historically targeted Iran’s nuclear program through relatively limited sabotage in the form of cyber-attacks, assassinations of scientists, and bombs placed at Iranian nuclear facilities. This strategy has allowed Israel to repeatedly roll the clock back on Iran’s nuclear progress while maintaining some level of credible deniability and avoiding further military escalation, therefore largely remaining within the “rules” established by Israel and Iran in conducting their shadow war. Now, with both countries openly striking each other’s territory, Israel may see this as an opportunity—or feel compelled—to target Iran’s nuclear facilities directly.
A range of bad options. The possibility of Iranian weaponization and Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites could lead to a serious escalation spiral and, potentially, a wider military conflict in the region.
Should Iran anticipate that Israel is preparing to carry out strikes against its nuclear sites, it may decide to rush toward producing a nuclear weapon before Israel has the time to inflict any significant damage on its ability to do so quickly. In turn, expecting an anticipatory push toward weaponization by Tehran, Jerusalem may be incentivized to carry out strikes to pre-empt Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. The disparity in timelines here favors Israel and creates risk for Iran: The former could attempt a strike in a short period—maybe days or weeks—whereas it would probably take Iran several months to a year from the point of decision to have a viable weapon, although estimates remain uncertain. Yet, through the advanced state of its nuclear program, Iran may be able to make significant advances toward a deployable nuclear weapon before the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)—or indeed, Israeli intelligence—catches on to developments, which would limit the time Israeli planners would have to mount a pre-emptive response.
Tehran may make the decision to build nuclear weapons in response to a limited Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities. The Iranian nuclear complex is too dispersed, key facilities too hardened, and nuclear expertise too consolidated to be eliminated through limited military strikes. Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow, where Iran produces the fissile material needed to produce nuclear weapons, are either fully (in the case of the enrichment facility at Fordow) or partially (at Natanz) underground and are heavily defended. Any Israeli strike that would cause damage to other Iranian nuclear sites—such as its centrifuge production or uranium conversion facilities, or even the not-yet-operational Khonab heavy water research reactor—would set the program back but would ultimately leave Iran with the ability to keep ramping up its uranium enrichment, potentially moving toward the production of weapons-grade uranium (enriched to 90 percent uranium 235). Any work Iran may be currently conducting to weaponize its nuclear technology—even as the US intelligence community assesses it is not doing so—would probably be performed in dispersed and undisclosed locations, making military targeting very challenging.
Following past instances of Israeli sabotage against the Iranian nuclear program, Tehran has doubled down—rebuilding damaged sites, hardening facilities, and ramping up its nuclear activity. The same is likely to be true should Iranian facilities be targeted directly this time, only to a greater degree. The shift from a proxy conflict between Iran and Israel to a direct engagement will only increase the value Iran places on its nuclear program as a deterrent against further direct attack on its territory and US military intervention. Should Iran assess that its regional proxies and its missile and drone capabilities have been insufficient to deter Israel from conducting direct strikes against its strategically significant nuclear program, Tehran may see the actual weaponization of its nuclear program as the only option left that can guarantee the security of the Iranian regime.
Unfortunately, an Israeli attack on non-nuclear Iranian assets may lead the Iranian leadership to reach a similar conclusion. As others have discussed elsewhere, since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, Iran’s weaknesses in deterring aggression against its assets in the region and capitalizing on the ongoing instability to advance its own security priorities have become apparent. Such weaknesses may be increasing the perceived strategic value of its nuclear program to Iranian leadership.
Short of developing a full nuclear weapons capability, Iran may first respond by enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels. While weapons-grade uranium alone is not enough to produce a nuclear weapon, it would be a decisive step in that direction. Iran may also retaliate for further Israeli attacks by withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). A withdrawal would be followed by the exclusion of IAEA inspectors from the country. Although Iran has significantly restricted inspector access in recent years, the IAEA continues to monitor and report on key aspects of the Iranian nuclear program. An Iranian withdrawal from the NPT would leave the international community with no visibility of developments in the program apart from national intelligence collection or satellite imagery.
Such uncertainty—and a formal reneging of Iran’s commitment under the NPT to forego a nuclear weapons capability—risk seriously exacerbating regional instability. An Iranian withdrawal from the NPT may also incentivize nuclear proliferation in the region, with Saudi Arabia having previously threatened to acquire nuclear weapons if Iran does.
All or nothing. The counterproductive effect of a limited strike on Iran’s nuclear program could lead Israel to consider a large-scale military operation to set the program back as decisively as possible. This option, however, would almost certainly result in an all-out, highly-destructive war between Iran and Israel, probably dragging other regional factions, the United States, and possibly others into the conflict.
To meaningfully roll back the Iranian nuclear program with a military operation, strikes would need to be carried out on facilities spread out across Iranian territory and would require the suppression of Iranian (and possibly Syrian) air defenses. The operation would also need attacks on ballistic missile and other military sites to be carried out, as they might otherwise be used in any immediate Iranian response. Attacks on underground facilities at Fordow and Natanz would require the use of weapons capable of penetrating several dozen meters of rock and reinforced concrete before exploding inside the facilities. The only conventional weapon that could plausibly achieve this is the American GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator, which—with over 12 metric tons and 6 meters long—can only be carried by large US bombers like the B-2 Spirit.
This tactical reality and the scale of the force required to hit so many targets nearly simultaneously suggest that a successful strike against the bulk of Iran’s nuclear program would require extensive US support, if not direct involvement. Even this sort of attack—which would inflict severe violence across Iranian territory—would not guarantee total destruction of Iran’s nuclear program.
In a more optimistic reading of current dynamics, Iran and Israel—recognizing the risks and drawbacks of limited or extensive strikes against Iran’s nuclear program—could help prevent precisely such an escalation. Both Israeli and Iranian leaderships could seek to find ways out of the retaliatory cycle while still being able to claim victory. Indeed, such de-escalating dynamics appear to be playing out, with Israel’s having responded in a limited and measured way to the earlier Iranian strikes on its territory and Iran downplaying the impact of Israel’s attacks. The desire to keep the situation from escalating further also clearly appears in US statements that draw a limit on its willingness to be involved in any attacks on Iran.
US political dynamics remain in the background, however. Should Donald Trump be re-elected to the US Presidency later this year, the Israeli position may harden, as a Republican administration is more likely to support an Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear program and Trump allies have already called for such strikes. With US support, Israel may feel it has the military and political backing it needs to strike a decisive blow to the Iranian nuclear program and weather the consequences before Iran decides to weaponize.
Managing risks of escalation. Recent events—and whatever further retaliatory measures that follow—are likely to lead to an inflection point in the Iranian nuclear program, as Iran looks to maintain and rebuild whatever deterrent it feels it is lacking or has lost. Meanwhile, the program will continue to be a tempting target for Israel and a source of escalation risks.
The United States, which retains some leverage over Israel, could help reduce these risks significantly by continuing to pressure Israel to keep its retaliation proportionate and limited to non-nuclear assets. Washington should also continue to make it clear that it will not get directly involved in any offensive Israeli military operation and that it will place conditions on any future military support to Israel in its conflict with Iran.
However, even such a measured approach will only act as a palliative treatment to the enduring problem of Iran’s nuclear program. The current situation serves as a sobering reminder of the delicate balance between the deterrent power and destabilizing impact that even a near-threshold nuclear capability can provide. This reality further illustrates the inevitability—and urgency—of finding a negotiated, non-military solution to the Iran nuclear issue. To be sure, the circumstances and conditions for a return to negotiations look as unfavorable as at any point in the last decade. Yet, they are far more desirable than the alternative: Gambling with the risk that Iran’s current advanced nuclear capability may be replaced by the even more destabilizing specter of a deployable nuclear weapon.
Why Iran may accelerate its nuclear program, and Israel may be tempted to attack it
After Israel's attack, the Iranian regime may see the actual weaponization of its nuclear program as the only option left that can guarantee its security.
thebulletin.org
Why Iran may accelerate its nuclear program, and Israel may be tempted to attack it
By Darya Dolzikova, Matthew Savill | April 26, 2024On April 19, Israel carried out a strike deep inside Iranian territory, near the city of Isfahan. The attack was apparently in retaliation for a major Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel a few days earlier. This exchange between the two countries—which have historically avoided directly targeting each other’s territories—has raised fears of a potentially serious military escalation in the region.
Israel’s strike was carried out against an Iranian military site located in close proximity to the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, which hosts nuclear research reactors, a uranium conversion plant, and a fuel production plant, among other facilities. Although the attack did not target Iran’s nuclear facilities directly, earlier reports suggested that Israel was considering such attacks. The Iranian leadership has, in turn, threatened to reconsider its nuclear policy and to advance its program should nuclear sites be attacked.
These events highlight the threat from regional escalation dynamics posed by Iran’s near-threshold nuclear capability, which grants Iran the perception of a certain degree of deterrence—at least against direct US retaliation—while also serving as an understandably tempting target for Israeli attack. As tensions between Israel and Iran have moved away from their traditional proxy nature and manifested as direct strikes against each other’s territories, the urgency of finding a timely and non-military solution to the Iranian nuclear issue has increased.
A tempting target. While the current assessment is that Iran does not possess nuclear weapons, the Islamic Republic maintains a very advanced nuclear program, allowing it to develop a nuclear weapons capability relatively rapidly, should it decide to do so. Iran’s “near-threshold” capability did not deter Israel from undertaking its recent attack. But Iran’s nuclear program is a tempting target for an attack that could have potentially destabilizing ramification: The program is advanced enough to pose a credible risk of rapid weaponization and at a stage when it could still be significantly degraded, albeit at an extremely high cost.
Iran views its nuclear program as a deterrent against direct US strikes on or invasion of its territory, acting as an insurance policy of sorts against invasion following erroneous Western accusations over its nuclear program, ala Iraq in 2003. That’s to say, during an attempted invasion, Iran could quickly produce nuclear weapons. This capability allows Iran’s leadership to engage in destabilizing activities in the region with a (perceived) limited likelihood of retaliation against its own territory. Concerns over escalation and a potential Iranian push toward weaponization of its nuclear program may have been one of multiple considerations that contributed to the US refusal to take part in Israeli retaliatory action following Iran’s April 13 strikes on Israel.
Israel sees the Iranian nuclear program as an existential threat and has long sought its elimination. For this reason, reports that Israel might have been preparing to target Iranian nuclear sites as retaliation for Iran’s strikes against its territory came as little surprise. Israel’s attack on military installations near Iranian nuclear facilities—and against an air defense system that Iran has deployed to protect its nuclear sites—appears to have been calibrated precisely to make the point that Israel has the capability to directly attack heavily-protected nuclear sites deep inside Iran. Some commentators have speculated that subsequent strikes on Iranian nuclear sites may still be desirable or necessary.
In this context, Iran’s nuclear sites will continue to present a tempting target for Israel in any further escalation of the conflict between the two. Moreover, Israel may also conclude that its own undeclared nuclear capability has failed to act as a deterrent against two major assaults on its territory. The attacks by Hamas on October 7 and Iran on April 13 probably added to Israel’s sense of strategic vulnerability, although that perception may have been partly alleviated by the largely successful defense against Iran’s attempted drone and missile strikes.
Israel has historically targeted Iran’s nuclear program through relatively limited sabotage in the form of cyber-attacks, assassinations of scientists, and bombs placed at Iranian nuclear facilities. This strategy has allowed Israel to repeatedly roll the clock back on Iran’s nuclear progress while maintaining some level of credible deniability and avoiding further military escalation, therefore largely remaining within the “rules” established by Israel and Iran in conducting their shadow war. Now, with both countries openly striking each other’s territory, Israel may see this as an opportunity—or feel compelled—to target Iran’s nuclear facilities directly.
A range of bad options. The possibility of Iranian weaponization and Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites could lead to a serious escalation spiral and, potentially, a wider military conflict in the region.
Should Iran anticipate that Israel is preparing to carry out strikes against its nuclear sites, it may decide to rush toward producing a nuclear weapon before Israel has the time to inflict any significant damage on its ability to do so quickly. In turn, expecting an anticipatory push toward weaponization by Tehran, Jerusalem may be incentivized to carry out strikes to pre-empt Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. The disparity in timelines here favors Israel and creates risk for Iran: The former could attempt a strike in a short period—maybe days or weeks—whereas it would probably take Iran several months to a year from the point of decision to have a viable weapon, although estimates remain uncertain. Yet, through the advanced state of its nuclear program, Iran may be able to make significant advances toward a deployable nuclear weapon before the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)—or indeed, Israeli intelligence—catches on to developments, which would limit the time Israeli planners would have to mount a pre-emptive response.
Tehran may make the decision to build nuclear weapons in response to a limited Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities. The Iranian nuclear complex is too dispersed, key facilities too hardened, and nuclear expertise too consolidated to be eliminated through limited military strikes. Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow, where Iran produces the fissile material needed to produce nuclear weapons, are either fully (in the case of the enrichment facility at Fordow) or partially (at Natanz) underground and are heavily defended. Any Israeli strike that would cause damage to other Iranian nuclear sites—such as its centrifuge production or uranium conversion facilities, or even the not-yet-operational Khonab heavy water research reactor—would set the program back but would ultimately leave Iran with the ability to keep ramping up its uranium enrichment, potentially moving toward the production of weapons-grade uranium (enriched to 90 percent uranium 235). Any work Iran may be currently conducting to weaponize its nuclear technology—even as the US intelligence community assesses it is not doing so—would probably be performed in dispersed and undisclosed locations, making military targeting very challenging.
Following past instances of Israeli sabotage against the Iranian nuclear program, Tehran has doubled down—rebuilding damaged sites, hardening facilities, and ramping up its nuclear activity. The same is likely to be true should Iranian facilities be targeted directly this time, only to a greater degree. The shift from a proxy conflict between Iran and Israel to a direct engagement will only increase the value Iran places on its nuclear program as a deterrent against further direct attack on its territory and US military intervention. Should Iran assess that its regional proxies and its missile and drone capabilities have been insufficient to deter Israel from conducting direct strikes against its strategically significant nuclear program, Tehran may see the actual weaponization of its nuclear program as the only option left that can guarantee the security of the Iranian regime.
Unfortunately, an Israeli attack on non-nuclear Iranian assets may lead the Iranian leadership to reach a similar conclusion. As others have discussed elsewhere, since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, Iran’s weaknesses in deterring aggression against its assets in the region and capitalizing on the ongoing instability to advance its own security priorities have become apparent. Such weaknesses may be increasing the perceived strategic value of its nuclear program to Iranian leadership.
Short of developing a full nuclear weapons capability, Iran may first respond by enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels. While weapons-grade uranium alone is not enough to produce a nuclear weapon, it would be a decisive step in that direction. Iran may also retaliate for further Israeli attacks by withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). A withdrawal would be followed by the exclusion of IAEA inspectors from the country. Although Iran has significantly restricted inspector access in recent years, the IAEA continues to monitor and report on key aspects of the Iranian nuclear program. An Iranian withdrawal from the NPT would leave the international community with no visibility of developments in the program apart from national intelligence collection or satellite imagery.
Such uncertainty—and a formal reneging of Iran’s commitment under the NPT to forego a nuclear weapons capability—risk seriously exacerbating regional instability. An Iranian withdrawal from the NPT may also incentivize nuclear proliferation in the region, with Saudi Arabia having previously threatened to acquire nuclear weapons if Iran does.
All or nothing. The counterproductive effect of a limited strike on Iran’s nuclear program could lead Israel to consider a large-scale military operation to set the program back as decisively as possible. This option, however, would almost certainly result in an all-out, highly-destructive war between Iran and Israel, probably dragging other regional factions, the United States, and possibly others into the conflict.
To meaningfully roll back the Iranian nuclear program with a military operation, strikes would need to be carried out on facilities spread out across Iranian territory and would require the suppression of Iranian (and possibly Syrian) air defenses. The operation would also need attacks on ballistic missile and other military sites to be carried out, as they might otherwise be used in any immediate Iranian response. Attacks on underground facilities at Fordow and Natanz would require the use of weapons capable of penetrating several dozen meters of rock and reinforced concrete before exploding inside the facilities. The only conventional weapon that could plausibly achieve this is the American GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator, which—with over 12 metric tons and 6 meters long—can only be carried by large US bombers like the B-2 Spirit.
This tactical reality and the scale of the force required to hit so many targets nearly simultaneously suggest that a successful strike against the bulk of Iran’s nuclear program would require extensive US support, if not direct involvement. Even this sort of attack—which would inflict severe violence across Iranian territory—would not guarantee total destruction of Iran’s nuclear program.
In a more optimistic reading of current dynamics, Iran and Israel—recognizing the risks and drawbacks of limited or extensive strikes against Iran’s nuclear program—could help prevent precisely such an escalation. Both Israeli and Iranian leaderships could seek to find ways out of the retaliatory cycle while still being able to claim victory. Indeed, such de-escalating dynamics appear to be playing out, with Israel’s having responded in a limited and measured way to the earlier Iranian strikes on its territory and Iran downplaying the impact of Israel’s attacks. The desire to keep the situation from escalating further also clearly appears in US statements that draw a limit on its willingness to be involved in any attacks on Iran.
US political dynamics remain in the background, however. Should Donald Trump be re-elected to the US Presidency later this year, the Israeli position may harden, as a Republican administration is more likely to support an Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear program and Trump allies have already called for such strikes. With US support, Israel may feel it has the military and political backing it needs to strike a decisive blow to the Iranian nuclear program and weather the consequences before Iran decides to weaponize.
Managing risks of escalation. Recent events—and whatever further retaliatory measures that follow—are likely to lead to an inflection point in the Iranian nuclear program, as Iran looks to maintain and rebuild whatever deterrent it feels it is lacking or has lost. Meanwhile, the program will continue to be a tempting target for Israel and a source of escalation risks.
The United States, which retains some leverage over Israel, could help reduce these risks significantly by continuing to pressure Israel to keep its retaliation proportionate and limited to non-nuclear assets. Washington should also continue to make it clear that it will not get directly involved in any offensive Israeli military operation and that it will place conditions on any future military support to Israel in its conflict with Iran.
However, even such a measured approach will only act as a palliative treatment to the enduring problem of Iran’s nuclear program. The current situation serves as a sobering reminder of the delicate balance between the deterrent power and destabilizing impact that even a near-threshold nuclear capability can provide. This reality further illustrates the inevitability—and urgency—of finding a negotiated, non-military solution to the Iran nuclear issue. To be sure, the circumstances and conditions for a return to negotiations look as unfavorable as at any point in the last decade. Yet, they are far more desirable than the alternative: Gambling with the risk that Iran’s current advanced nuclear capability may be replaced by the even more destabilizing specter of a deployable nuclear weapon.
Darya Dolzikova
Darya Dolzikova is a research fellow in proliferation and nuclear policy at the Royal United Services Institute in London.... Read MoreMatthew Savill
Matthew Savill is the director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute in London.... Read More
jward
passin' thru
Shaiel Ben-Ephraim
@academic_la
BREAKING: Tamir Morag of Channel 14 reports that the Israeli government has received word that the top echelon of the Israeli government and IDF will receive idictments from the ICC within the next week or so.
The individuals to be indicated include Netanyahu, Gallant, and Halevi. But the list will not stop there. They will likely be charged with crimes against humanity.
Despite his bravado about the ICC, I am hearing from sources that Netanyahu is very nervous about the high likelihood that they will issue arrest warrants. At this point, it appears that that is inevitable.
While the ICC cannot arrest anyone, all court members are obligated to hand over individuals with warrants against them. So if served, that could stop anyone served from going to 124 countries. Basically, all important nations on earth aside from the United States, China, India, and a few Arab states (and Israel, of course).
Most importantly, it would be a nightmare for Israel's international image. Russia and Sudan have had warrants issued for their leaders. But no Western democracy ever has. This is yet another piece of diplomatic fallout from the war. The clock the international community set for this conflict long expired.
Now, Israel finds itself fighting in the ICJ and soon the ICC. This will embroil Israel in a multi-year legal and diplomatic nightmare. Netanyahu is reportedly very concerned about this and thinks he can avoid some of these warrants by delaying an invasion of Rafah even further. That seems to be the main consideration right now—stopping an operation—far more than the US or Egypt.
6:00 PM · Apr 27, 2024
176.4K
Views
Schwokkenwolf
@schwokk
3h
This isn’t Biden’s doing but could be a huge headache for him politically. I could see a lot of centrist US Jews, myself included, suddenly receptive to a Republican who wants to squash the ICC
@academic_la
BREAKING: Tamir Morag of Channel 14 reports that the Israeli government has received word that the top echelon of the Israeli government and IDF will receive idictments from the ICC within the next week or so.
The individuals to be indicated include Netanyahu, Gallant, and Halevi. But the list will not stop there. They will likely be charged with crimes against humanity.
Despite his bravado about the ICC, I am hearing from sources that Netanyahu is very nervous about the high likelihood that they will issue arrest warrants. At this point, it appears that that is inevitable.
While the ICC cannot arrest anyone, all court members are obligated to hand over individuals with warrants against them. So if served, that could stop anyone served from going to 124 countries. Basically, all important nations on earth aside from the United States, China, India, and a few Arab states (and Israel, of course).
Most importantly, it would be a nightmare for Israel's international image. Russia and Sudan have had warrants issued for their leaders. But no Western democracy ever has. This is yet another piece of diplomatic fallout from the war. The clock the international community set for this conflict long expired.
Now, Israel finds itself fighting in the ICJ and soon the ICC. This will embroil Israel in a multi-year legal and diplomatic nightmare. Netanyahu is reportedly very concerned about this and thinks he can avoid some of these warrants by delaying an invasion of Rafah even further. That seems to be the main consideration right now—stopping an operation—far more than the US or Egypt.
6:00 PM · Apr 27, 2024
176.4K
Views
Schwokkenwolf
@schwokk
3h
This isn’t Biden’s doing but could be a huge headache for him politically. I could see a lot of centrist US Jews, myself included, suddenly receptive to a Republican who wants to squash the ICC
jward
passin' thru
Omar Abu Layla
@OALD24
BREAKING:
Intense Israeli airstrikes relentlessly target numerous villages and towns in southern Lebanon, including Tyre, Harfa, Maroun al-Ras, outskirts of the town of Yaroun, near the town of Aitaroun, and Maroun.
I haven't heard of this magnitude of airstrikes against Hezbollah sites before!
What exactly is happening?
6:14 PM · Apr 27, 2024
26.3K
Views
dan linnaeus
@DanLinnaeus
Escalation of 1701 noncompliance military enforcement campaign, part of Israel’s strategic calculus in preparation for a full-scale Rafah incursion, where Hezbollah is assessed as a significant threat that will be activated by Tehran to prevent the IDF from eliminating Sinwar and his remaining battalions.
6:29 PM · Apr 27, 2024
3,733
Views
Dr. Fundji Benedict
@Fundji3
This is in preparation of Rafah.
7:19 PM · Apr 27, 2024
733
Views
@OALD24
BREAKING:
Intense Israeli airstrikes relentlessly target numerous villages and towns in southern Lebanon, including Tyre, Harfa, Maroun al-Ras, outskirts of the town of Yaroun, near the town of Aitaroun, and Maroun.
I haven't heard of this magnitude of airstrikes against Hezbollah sites before!
What exactly is happening?
6:14 PM · Apr 27, 2024
26.3K
Views
dan linnaeus
@DanLinnaeus
Escalation of 1701 noncompliance military enforcement campaign, part of Israel’s strategic calculus in preparation for a full-scale Rafah incursion, where Hezbollah is assessed as a significant threat that will be activated by Tehran to prevent the IDF from eliminating Sinwar and his remaining battalions.
6:29 PM · Apr 27, 2024
3,733
Views
Dr. Fundji Benedict
@Fundji3
This is in preparation of Rafah.
7:19 PM · Apr 27, 2024
733
Views
For that matter this kind of lawfare only emboldens the likes of Hamas and others and sets the stage for things to go "Old Testament" in many parts of the world. For the Israelis why hold back on Hamas, Hezbollah, the IRGC and the Mullah regime; better to be hung as a ram than a ewe?
blueinterceptor
Veteran Member
Where does the top Israeli government need to go that they can’t telecommute? If I were Netanyahu, I go out in a blaze of glory for my country and her people. Take the battle to Hamas and Hezbollah. Arrest me, when I leave my country. At his age he can stay in Israel for the rest of his life.
where does he need to go that he hasn’t been to before.
Why doesn’t the icc issue arrest warrants for Iranian officials, hezbollah or hamas??
where does he need to go that he hasn’t been to before.
Why doesn’t the icc issue arrest warrants for Iranian officials, hezbollah or hamas??
Part of the concern is that Israel has their own far left nuts who due to the fractiousness of Israeli politics and their parliamentary system actually could end up in a government and actually arrest and deport the prior government.
blueinterceptor
Veteran Member
I get that but if I could actually get a resounding defeat of hamas and hezbollah? if I could prevent another oct7. After I’m done. Come get me.
I cannot wrap my head around microwaving a baby. I can’t imagine that kind of depravity.
jward
passin' thru
But they can't necessarily get that defeat- people don't seem to get that there is a war going on against Israel in the court of public opinion- globally, that is probably as dangerous to their ultimate well being as the physical battles.
Those stoopid lil protesters who don't have the first clue about what they are doing or why are none the less effective in achieving the aims of the organization behind them that draws it's funding and membership from all over the globe and seeks not only to make Israel a paraha on the world stage, but to bring enough pressure against her that her allies don't provide the financing, weapons, and physical and political backing she needs to get this job done.
- That is as much a theatre o' this war as any other, and as we see, they've been able to meet some of those aims.
Not sure where the idea that biden has no say or no one listens to him/america any more came from, but it's simply not true- our stockpiles of weapons, fake money and political support matter, and when enough pressure is brought to bear from the enemies, foreign and domestic, the obj. Israel needs to achieve might not be met.
Raylan Givens
@JewishWarrior13
UPDATE: The situation in Israel is terrible; Biden caused significant damage to Israel with Rafah and is refusing to help Israel with the ICC; if the US does not intervene with sanctions against the Nazi prosecutor Kahn from the ICC, arrest warrants will be issued this week for Bibi, Galant, and Halevi. Biden is, in other words, telling Bibi: Stop the war or ICC.
8:27 PM · Apr 27, 2024
11.8K
Views
jward
passin' thru
Raylan Givens
@JewishWarrior13
From Channel 12 and Israel Hayom: Bibi will have to make a tough decision; if he goes with the hostage deal and stops the war, his government will fall; if he goes with the Rafah operation, most likely, ICC will issue the arrest warrants. Galant and IDF are for the deal; they claim that Israel can handle the Hamas at a later date. It's a crucial week for Israel
9:23 PM · Apr 27, 2024
12.6K
Views
@JewishWarrior13
From Channel 12 and Israel Hayom: Bibi will have to make a tough decision; if he goes with the hostage deal and stops the war, his government will fall; if he goes with the Rafah operation, most likely, ICC will issue the arrest warrants. Galant and IDF are for the deal; they claim that Israel can handle the Hamas at a later date. It's a crucial week for Israel
9:23 PM · Apr 27, 2024
12.6K
Views
The problem is that at that "later date" Hamas and Hezbollah are likely to have access to more than old AKs, up to and including canned sunshine, from Iran while now they're on their back led and they're the ones who were flying the "Black Flag" first so they're primed for a death blow NOW.
jward
passin' thru
I would agree; it needs to be put to bed once and for all. Now.
Less clear whether they will think they that they see a road to that end that doesn't cost them more than they can afford to pay.
Less clear whether they will think they that they see a road to that end that doesn't cost them more than they can afford to pay.
blueinterceptor
Veteran Member
I appreciate all that. However, as I understand it, the icc can’t come get me(him) I’d have to leave Israeli territory for the warrant to be enforced. If that’s the case, if I was him, I’d do what I have to, to protect my people. I’d take the blame. To hell with public opinion. Hamas microwaved living babies. I don’t need them to look favorably upon me. I’ve lived a good life. I don’t need to leave my home country. I’d probably be dead before any trial came to be anyway.
My opinion of myself matters before any lefty liberal.
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