WAR Regional conflict brewing in the Mediterranean

jward

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Insider Paper
@TheInsiderPaper
BREAKING: Federal prosecutors and the FBI are conducting a broad public corruption investigation into whether Mayor Eric Adams’s 2021 election campaign conspired with the Turkish government to receive illegal foreign donations, according to a search warrant” - New York Times
 

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Douglas Macgregor
@DougAMacgregor

Turkish soldiers will eventually fight in Gaza.

Erdoğan is sensitive to timing, he is mobilizing the country.

This is going to happen, it's a mistake to dismiss him.

Erdoğan is the one man in Middle East with the capability to destroy Israel.

Pay Attention!

6:51 PM · Nov 6, 2023
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Explainer: Why oil flows through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline have been halted
Maha Dahan, Ahmed Rasheed



DUBAI, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Crude oil flows from northern Iraq to Turkey halted for more than seven months could start flowing again this week after Baghdad said it had reached "an understanding" with Istanbul.

Here is an outline of the pipeline dispute:
WHAT IS THE LATEST?

On a visit to Erbil on Sunday, Iraqi oil minister Hayan

Abdel-Ghani said he expects to reach an agreement with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and foreign oil companies to resume oil production from the Kurdish region's oilfields within three days, signalling a potential restart soon.

Turkey had said last month the pipeline was ready to begin operations, but Iraq maintained it had received no official notification over the pipeline and a senior energy adviser told Reuters Baghdad was waiting to iron out "lingering financial and technical issues" ahead of any restart.
WHY IS IT IMPORTANT?

While Iraq, OPEC's second-largest oil producer, exports about 85% of its crude via ports in the south, the northern route via Turkey still accounts for about 0.5% of global oil supply.
WHAT PROMPTED THE SHUTDOWN?

Supplies of 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) were halted on March 25 after an International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) arbitration ruling.

The ICC ordered Ankara to pay Baghdad damages of about $1.5 billion for unauthorised exports by the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) between 2014 and 2018.

KRG exports flow through a KRG pipeline to Fish-Khabur on the northern Iraqi border, where the oil enters Turkey and is

pumped to the port of Ceyhan on its Mediterranean coast.

Iraq's federal government says state-owned marketer SOMO is the only party authorised to manage crude exports via Ceyhan.

Turkey shut down the pipeline because Iraq's federal government won the right to control loading at Ceyhan.

Iraq's SOMO would have to instruct Turkey on ship-loading, or the crude would have built up in storage with nowhere to go.

Turkey halted flows through Iraq's northern oil export route after an arbitration ruling on March 23 by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) which ordered Ankara to pay Baghdad damages for unauthorised exports between 2014 and 2018.

The move sent oil prices down towards $80 a barrel.

On March 25, Turkey stopped pumping around 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Iraqi oil via the pipeline to Ceyhan. This comprised 370,000 bpd of KRG crude and 75,000 bpd of federal crude, a source familiar with the pipeline's operations said.
WHAT ARE THE DISPUTES OVER?

Iraq filed for arbitration in 2014 with the Paris-based ICC over Turkey's role in facilitating oil exports from Kurdistan

without the consent of the federal government in Baghdad.

Iraq said that by transporting and storing oil from Kurdistan and loading it on tankers in Ceyhan without Baghdad's approval, Ankara and Turkish state energy company BOTAS violated provisions of an Iraq-Turkey pipeline agreement signed in 1973.

In March, the ICC ruled in Iraq's favour for the right to control loading at Ceyhan and to have access to see what was being loaded, a source familiar with the case has told Reuters.

Turkey was also asked to pay 50% of the discount at which KRG oil was sold, three sources said.

Based on several rulings, the net amount Turkey owes Iraq is about $1.5 billion before interest, a source familiar with the case said.

According to a Turkish source, Iraq's initial demand was for about $33 billion.

A second arbitration case, which could take about two years, would cover the period from 2018 onwards.

The Turkish government and the governments in Baghdad and Kurdistan have released statements since the court ruling, but

none included full details about the decision.

In addition, the treaty regulating the pipeline obliges Baghdad to pump a minimum guaranteed volume through it. This translates into a minimum payment to Turkey, regardless of the amount of crude that flows, as long as the pipeline is

operational and could further complicate matters, an Iraqi official said.
MAINTENANCE WORK?

Iraq said in May that the stoppage in March coincided with request by Turkey to check the pipeline and storage tanks for any damage resulting from a massive Feb. 6 earthquake.

The two countries agreed to wait until a maintenance assessment on the pipeline was complete to restart flows, while still engaging in the legal battle over arbitration awards.

In April, Iraq petitioned a U.S. federal court to enforce the ICC arbitration award. Ankara also said last month it was

weighing legal action against Iraq.

Turkey is seeking a halt to the U.S. litigation and a lack of progress on resolving this issue was among the reasons behind the postponement of a planned August visit to Iraq by Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan.

Sources have said an Erdogan visit to Baghdad would help resolve the matter, but that hasn't happened yet. Turkish energy minister Alparslan Bayraktar made a surprise announcement at an industry event in Abu Dhabi on Oct. 2, when he said the maintenance was complete and the pipeline would resume work within the week.

Baghdad did not officially comment on the matter at the time but officials have said talks were ongoing. Flows are yet to restart.

(This story has been refiled to fix the spelling of Baghdad in paragraph 1)

Reporting by Maha El Dahan; editing by David Evans

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Maha reports on energy and commodities across the Middle East region. She has been working as a Reuters journalist for the past 15 years and has covered stories across Egypt, the Gulf, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan. She has previously managed the Lebanon, Syria, Jordan bureau. Contact: @mahaeldahan
 

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Clash Report
@clashreport

Families of Israeli hostages have asked Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for help in rescuing the hostages held by Palestinian forces in Gaza.

“As the leader of one of the region's great powers, with vast influence in the Middle East, in the Muslim world and beyond, we believe that you are in a unique position to be of immeasurable assistance…

We therefore appeal to you on the deepest humanitarian level to do all in your power to obtain a sign of life from the hostages, to facilitate the supply to them of all their medical needs without delay and to bring about their immediate release.”
View: View: https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1725426984077983990?s=20
 

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Clash Report
@clashreport
Michael Roth, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the German Bundestag, threatened Türkiye over Israel:

As long as President Erdogan maintains his stance against Israel, we will not help him with the problems he faces.

Under these conditions, it is not possible for European companies to reinvest in Türkiye.
 

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Clash Report
@clashreport

Türkiye’s ROKETSAN announces the successful test firing of its Extended Long Range Anti-Tank Missile System (LUMTAS-GM), demonstrating remarkable field efficacy with pinpoint accuracy in striking a target.

The missile successfully engaged and hit its target at a distance of 16 km.
 

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:hmm: lovers' quarrel?

Jason Brodsky
@JasonMBrodsky

President Ebrahim Raisi of #Iran's regime will not be making a previously announced visit to #Turkey today, the Turkish presidency tells AFP, without providing a reason.
 

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Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
US NAVY REPOSITIONS TWO WARSHIPS FROM THE RED SEA TO THE MEDITERRANEAN

The Pentagon issues instructions to the US Navy in the Red Sea to transfer two warships directly to the eastern Mediterranean, as tensions and strategic repositioning unfold.
 

jward

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no idea who's got the better understanding of realities on the ground. . .
time will tell eh.

Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal

*EGYPT: NO WAY IS ETHIOPIA GETTING ACCESS TO THE RED SEA*

*SISI*: "We will not allow any threat to the state of Somalia and its security. We affirm our rejection of the agreement between Ethiopia and ’Somaliland’."

The deal between Ethiopia and the breakaway region of Somaliland would allow Ethiopia access to the Red Sea.

Somalia has denounced the agreement, citing a violation of its sovereignty.

Egypt has stated that the deal threatens regional stability.

Source: Al-Monitor, Africanews

Sharmake
@sharmakeabyan

@MarioNawfal Egypt is just sabre rattling as they are broke and unable to wage any form of conflict apart from sending a few AK47s to a Somalia already infested with it.

The train that is Somaliland has well and truly left the station so wait and watch this space for the emergence of the newest member of the African Union/United Nations.

If Egypt was really looking to do some good for the world it would have done more in the conflict next door.
10:53 AM · Jan 21, 2024
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Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch
@BabakTaghvaee1
#BREAKING: Another dangerous move was made by #Biden administration Today. He has urged the #US Congress members to approve sale of F-16V Block 70 fighter jets to #Turkiye. Happenning exactly when #Erdogan is meeting his murderous counterpart from #Iran's Regime, Ebrahim #Raisi!
 

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Ragıp Soylu
@ragipsoylu

Second Erdogan win after ratifying Sweden’s NATO membership;

• US State Department notified Congress of its approval of the $23 billion F-16 sale to Turkey. The package includes 40 new F-16s and equipment to modernize 79 of its existing F-16 flee

• The department also notified Congress of a companion $8.6 billion sale of 40 advanced F-35 fighter jets to Greece, late Friday.
 

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Ragıp Soylu
@ragipsoylu

NEW: The US is establishing 155mm artillery shell production lines in Texas with the help of a Turkish defense company, US Ambassador Flake reveals in an op-ed.

• “In Texas, the Department of Defense is building three munitions lines purchased from a Turkish defense firm. “

• “By next year, an estimated 30% of all 155 mm rounds made in America will come from these Texas factories, thanks to the U.S.-Türkiye defense partnership. “
 
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