PREDICTION ON POST-ELECTION OIL PRICES

Dennis Olson

Chief Curmudgeon
_______________
I will go on record as having the position that within 3-5 days after the close of voting today, oil prices shoot skyward again, probably topping $60/bbl. I further predict that the current false cap on gas prices will evaporate faster than a drop of water on an Arizona sidewalk at noon....
 

nanna

Devil's Advocate
Well, given that it was just reported that an oil WELL was blown up by sabateurs in Northern Iraq ... combined with the pipeline attacks overnight that received little note with all the "election trade" going on ...

I tend to agree with you, Dennis. Maybe not $60, but, I'd expect oil to rally within the next couple of days, too.

(edit to add story, which is now moving on the wires ... under fair use ...)


Saboteurs Blow Up Oil Well In North Iraq -State Co Source


BAGHDAD (Dow Jones)--Saboteurs blew up an oil well in northern Iraq late
Tuesday, an act that will cut into the country's oil production, an engineer
with the state-owned North Oil Co. said.

The attack hit the Al-Ghabaza well, located some 35 kilometers south of Kirkuk
in the village of Yalji, the engineer said.

"This evening, an act of sabotage took place against one of our key oil wells,
and that will reduce our crude oil production from the north," the engineer
said.

Assailants Monday morning blew up a domestic oil pipeline that connects the
Kirkuk oil fields with the Beiji refinery in northern Iraq.

Oil is being diverted to domestic refineries while repairs are carried out on
the pipeline, halting exports from the Kirkuk oil fields. Those exports are to
resume in two to three days.

-By Hassan Hafidh, Dow Jones Newswires; +964 7901 912214; hafidh8@hotmail.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-02-04 1320ET- - 01 20 PM EST 11-02-04





nanna
 

Quentin

Inactive
It does seem that oil will have to go up. Its amazing to me how just the last couple of days both oil prices were going down and the Dow jumping up past the 10000 mark again. Looking at the full economic landscape I don't think that will last for long either. Reality has to sink in soon whatever the election results.
 

Bill P

Inactive
Just for grins I say 45/bbl before we see 55/bbl reasons:

1. Pre-election uncertainity/futures trading based on electioneering is resolved and ceases to be a prop for higher prices.

2. Chinese demand to slow for next few months due to interest rate increases in China.

3. Gulf of Mexico is being brought back to full extraction.

4. Recent run up will only be profitable to those in long position when they sell their position to realize their profit.

5. Kuwait has restarted thgeir refineries.

6. Strike in Norway was averted.

7. Risng inventory of crude in US stockpile and end of summer peak driving demand.

8. Even major trends do not trace a straight line.
 
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