[POL] Rumor about the election: Not Fact

doctor_fungcool

TB Fanatic
This is a rumor..............only a rumor........take it for what its worth.


"....ok, my friend in the kerry campaign spoke late last night with mark mehlman of the bush team. mehlman was a roomate of my friend when they were both at the harvard law school. they are at opposite ends of the politcal spectrum, but are very good friends. mehlman says the bush team is in "major melt down" because their polling has them losing in ohio and florida, so they are in a mad dash to pull something out in the upper midwest. michigan isn't really in play. he called it a "head fake". wisconsin is slipping away, bush spoke in green bay today to less than 5,000 people (kerry drew 80,000 in madison on thursday). iowa has the numbers potentially but they've focused on it way too late, after the dems had a massive absentee push, so iowa is unlikely. they can't win with minnesota alone and even that state doesn't look good.

mehlman says that there is incredible discord at the top. cheney is absolutley livid with rove on the overall strategy ("we peaked too soon you bastard") and with karen hughes for not adequately preparing bush for the debates ("he looked like a g** d***** mental patient"). cheney is apparently a "real monster". the rnc doesn't know what to do because they can't get any clear direction from the top.

mehlman says that bush's slide in their polls began about three weeks before the debates when kerry when into attack mode with major foreign policy speeches at nyu and at a national guard convention, the day after bush spoke. the slide accelerated big time after the debates, "everyone was as bad as the first with no let-up in free fall" according to mehlman. cheney freaked during the first debate, convinced that bush "'lost the f****** election in front of 65 million people". Now they simply don't have the numbers to win in Florida, have not got their ducks in a row to "deflect" the massive number of early voters and are having real trouble maintaining the base in Florida and elsewhere ("our people are just turning away"). in ohio they've been simply overwhelmed with the new voter registrations and have been unsuccessful in court challenges. bush's number actually go now when he visits ohio after Treasury Secretary Snow's comments in the state that job losses were a "myth". Additionally many repubs are pissed about the financial proligacy of Bush and Cheney and their incompetence in Iraq, so a lot are simply going to "take a pass", read not vote. bush apparently has been totally "out of it" believing Rove and Hughes that everything was fine and that victory was assured, but is finally and slowing catching on that he might lose this thing. yesterday morning when made aware of the bin laden tape in nh, simply said. "It's over."
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This is merely hearsay..........rumor.............conjecture.........however, I thought I'd post it so you could personally fill in your own dots on the matter
 

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
Well I can tell ya that the turnout here in Ohio is NOT LIGHT......


And the folks I talked to were about half and half, shading a smidge towards GWB......

Taking a pass is NOT what we Repubs do in Ohio.....

We'll see......(heh the CURRENT polling numbers as of last nite show GW up by 3 points....)
 

Dennis Olson

Chief Curmudgeon
_______________
Puhleeeaaaaase!

Madison Wisconsin makes Kerry look like a conservative! By definition, ANY rally there will have FAR MORE liberal attendance.....

Geez......
 

Texian

Contributing Member
Google search on Mark Mehlman shows him to be a campaign pollster that favors the "Kerry Camp"....??? Texian
 

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
PLUS the fact that Kerry is touring with Springsteen.... I overheard a couple conversations last nite bout his Cleveland Rally..... the kiddies were going because of Da Boss, not kerry.
 

Aleph Null

Membership Revoked
Some of this sounds in left field but some of it is probably on the mark.

If Bush does lose both Ohio and Florida, Laura can start packing up the china...

-A0-
 

rev_mike

Contributing Member
Madison Liberal ?

Dennis, really, Madison is only just a smidge left of Havana politically.

But, like our friends in Canada, the people are SO N I C E



Dennis Olson said:
Puhleeeaaaaase!

Madison Wisconsin makes Kerry look like a conservative! By definition, ANY rally there will have FAR MORE liberal attendance.....

Geez......
 

timbo

Deceased
Too late. The Clinton's already got the china...and the silverware..and the bedspreads...and the curtains...and the rugs....stopped at the wallpaper. Damn stuff was even too sticky for them.
 

WitsEnd

Contributing Member
If the 80,000 really were there in Madison, the big draw was "The Boss". When Kerry appeared previously at a venue not near campus, they hauled in public school kids in buses so they had a crowd.
 

Kimber

Membership Revoked
Everyone Take a Deep Breath.

And, if you can, vote third party. :lol:

Seriously, I believe the story is pure trash. Moreover, the real "Mellman" a democrat pollster, believes Bush will win. Read below:

============================================

THE POLLSTERS
Mark Mellman

The uphill fight is impossible to predict now

You, dear reader, have the advantage over me. I am writing this Sunday, before the election takes place. The opportunities for me to look foolish are legion. So I will resist both predictions and triumphalism.

For months, though, I’ve been assessing President Bush’s vulnerability, but win or lose, it is important to acknowledge the daunting challenge Sen. John Kerry faces.
Republicans have been spinning this fact for months and they are right.

First, we simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime. After wars surely, but never in their midst. Republicans have been spinning this fact for months, and they are correct.

Democrats have spoken often and powerfully about the nation’s economic problems. But by historical standards, they are not that bad. The “misery index” is 7.8 today but was 20.5 when Jimmy Carter was defeated. Economic models of elections show Bush winning 52-58 percent of the vote.

One could simply suggest that the models are off, but there is more to it than that.

These models essentially confirm that the level of economic pain we are now feeling is not commensurate with voting an incumbent president out of office.

Unemployment and inflation are lower than they have been when incumbents have been defeated. Growth is higher than it has been when presidents have been tossed out of office.

The war in Iraq is obviously hurting Bush, but some of these models also incorporate casualty figures as a proxy for war. These models tend to suggest that Bush should win by a large margin. Nearly 50,000 killed in Vietnam did not prevent Nixon’s reelection.

Bush’s approval ratings are also indicative of the difficulties Kerry faces. It is certainly true that the average incumbent who has been reelected has had a much higher job approval rating — 62 percent. Bush’s approval rating is now about 49 percent. Yet the last time an incumbent was beaten — Bush’s father — just 33 percent approved of his performance. When Carter was defeated, he had an approval rating of only 37 percent. On average, incumbents who have been defeated have only had a 38 percent job rating. Bush is 10 points higher than that.

We often point to the fact that a majority of Americans say the country is seriously off on the wrong track. Fifty-two percent hold that view. But when Bush Sr. was defeated, 72 percent thought the country was seriously off on the wrong track.

Only 39 percent give the economy a positive rating, a problem for the incumbent.

Yet in 1992, only about 10 percent were positive about the economy.

Taking all that and more into account, an expert forecasting model suggests that Bush will get 51.6 percent of the two-party vote.

So while Bush faces formidable obstacles, not the least of which is Kerry himself, the senator also faces a strong candidate. Bush is weaker than some other incumbents but much stronger than those who have been defeated.

You soon will know whether Kerry’s appeal was strong enough to overcome the incumbent’s strength. I think I will be smiling broadly. But it has been an uphill fight.

Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has worked for Democratic candidates and causes since 1982, including Sen. John Kerry this year.

http://www.hillnews.com/mellman/110204.aspx
 
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