[OT] Discussion thread for "We Interrupt This Program..." story

[A.T.Hagan]

The story thread already being so big I'd like to keep from cluttering it up but I'm in somewhat of a quandary about a particular phase of the story. For you folks that have been reading it maybe you'd share some thoughts with me and I'll craft something out of them or maybe they'll give me an idea.

We're 29 days into the story now. There's all sorts of long-term implications to still be explored but the initial shock of the impact is passing. The nature of Man being what it is he's going to try to regroup and rebuild and it's starting to become time to examine that aspect of the story. There's still plenty of forces trying to maximize entropy but there's forcing trying to minimize it too.

A background info refresher:

It's the greatest disaster in recorded history. The Eastern Seaboard has been largely devastated for a couple of hundred miles or more inland except for Florida with it's broad, shallow continental shelf which has only been devastated for ten to twenty miles on both coasts. This is bad enough since that's where the majority of our population is. Miami pretty well washed across the Everglades into the Gulf thanks to the deep water channel that comes very close to shore there.

There's been a 6.1 earthquake along the New Madrid fault line and a 7.3 earthquake along the southern San Andreas fault in the Los Angeles area. The tusnamis that essentially scattered the East Coast cities across the continental shelf also hit the Gulf coast and West coast but to lesser extents essentially doing serious damage but not inflicting devastation on the West coast. The Gulf coast was largely a loss but not as far inland as on the East coast.

Impact induced rainfall averaged seventy inches of precipitation across the greater portion of the U.S. in twenty one days. A major dam failure occurred on the Tennessee river along with severe damage to flood control structures along the lower Mississippi but ports from Memphis northward are still usable as river levels begin to fall.

Estimated death toll: Roughly 40,000,000.

Economic loss: In the hundreds of billions.

In spite of all this the U.S. still stands as a nation. Many portions of the country still have at least limited electrical power, much of the telecomm network still functions outside of the devastated areas. Fuel is in critically short supply due to damage to port terminals and refineries in coastal areas. Most of the major food stores are found in the Midwestern and Western states and little of it was lost but lack of transport is a serious impediment.

Here's the questions:

#1 - What is the government doing to get the nation back on its feet and productive as quickly as possible?

#2 - For those areas where it has been possible to maintain electrical power and telecomm how long do the respective companies continue to provide these services when so many people are out of work and may not be able to pay for them? Does the government involve itself in this?

#3 - Obviously the bottom has been well and truly blown out of the economy but how about folks with mortgages on real property, and other loans on tangible goods? Do the lending institutions try to demand payment? Does the government involve itself?

How does the nation pick itself up again?

I've tried to keep the story as realistic as I could so lets keep our ideas to things that have actually been done in the past or might actually be tried in view of the extraordinary circumstances of the story. Lets hear some ideas!

THANKS!!!

.....Alan.

 

[Cascadians]

Seems Impact washed the slate clean, time to start from scratch, ground up, rebuild, back to the great nation the Constitution framed.

On the way there, a temporary CCC -- Civilian Conservation Corp for rebuilding!

Enjoying your story, Alan

 

[Cascadians]

All those refugees must get to work! The USA can designate areas suitable for rebuilding and get those refugees hi ho carving out new towns pronto. That will solve the restlessness problem and restore morale. They'll need to use all their resources to plant crops and do greenhouse gardening, hydroponics, etc to get through that first winter. Also, they have to get interior supplies out to the starving. Everybody will have to cooperate, but no need to confiscate and go Commie Pinko BTW, don't the Chinese say that dog meat is a delicacy?

 

[Bill Clo]

I've got no really solid ideas, but here's some things that I can toss out.

1) the FedGov isn't likely doing much besides trying to feed the refugee camps, and repair certain essential facilities. They have their hands full just keeping things from going even further downhill, as it were. If they were smart, they'd put out as much info as possible how to grow food, how to learn certain survival-related skills.

2) I have a suspicion that under the emergency situation that exists in the story, the govt would "encourage" the utilities to continue to provide services as long as possible. If the power goes totally out, or the water/sewage ceases to flow, the death toll would be huge. As to whether or not the companies get compensated now or at a later date is tricky to predict. One way to get around the payment issue could be for people to pay their bill with alternative currency/barter. I don't see the electric/water companies going around and shutting down services for a given residence/business when the police/local military have enough trouble keeping the peace as it is. For a whole town/region, maybe, but not house to house.

3) I can see a couple options for the banking industry, as far as payment for mortgages/loans goes. If they just go around, seizing large numbers of properties for non payment, they just about guarantee that the bank will go under. I doubt that they'll be very many people able to pay their mortgage for more than a couple months max. Maybe they'd accept barter - just to keep the bank employees alive til things get better? Or the Feds could just come out and put a moratorium on payments on loans til a certain date? That's sure to hurt the bank, but might save them in the final analysis.

Alan, have to say that I love the story. It brings up plenty of issues that we all need to think about, and try to prepare for. Keep it up.

 

[BillBk]

The slate would be pretty much wiped clean as far as the banking system and credit cards if you lose the upper east coast.....and who they gonna send to reposses anything anyway. Probably go back to a silver/gold/barter econmic base pretty quick anyway.
Have to put what military is left ( that hasn't gone AWOL trying to find their own families ) along the southern border to keep the looters and bandits out.
All these small cities and towns gonna be telling refugees to "keep movin" and will be lots of stealing/looting going on.(Joe middle class yuppie is really not a nice guy if he sees his kids starting to starve)
I don't see the feds being able to do much for a considerable peroid of time,the infrastructure would be collapsing by leaps and bounds---the power / phone would probably hold out as long as they could without replacement parts as long as they have enough employees show up instead of staying home trying to protect what's theirs......
Gonna be tuff!

 

[Chapulin]

A few angles to consider in getting resources and people together.

The Berlin airlift is a case of survivors being left in place and supplies brought in. Would planes have been force landed or would there have been a mad dash to get in the air?

At what point do gov'ts offer the opportunity to move elsewhere either
voluntarily/temporary or required/enforced? What of everyone who managed to leave the area?

There are large distribution warehouses in various locations (Wallyworld in mid Oregon for one).

Would local clubs/churches establish trades of labor/food with area farmers?

Are there a variety of individual, corporate, civil, medical fiefdoms or warlords that set up small to medium productive/protective collectives?
Would the doctor that treated the daughter try to set up something like that?

You've done a good job of sectioning the US making groups of states more important than Federal or state gov'ts.
Of course boundaries that don't have recognized existing governments.

Just helping get the discussion started!
Chap

 

[Wild-T2]

Alan, this story is wonderful. Loved the part about the wacky Y2K web site. What a hoot!!

Anyway, about this discussion thread, I think I may avoid it as it's liable to take some of the suspicion out of it for me. Besides you have done such a great job so far I don't think there is anything I could add.

Keep up the good work.

(edited spelling)

 

[Onebyone]

I think the government would assume they have unlimited funds like they usually assume and start employing people for rebuilding. Starting with small communities with small one bedroom homes with a bath and a small kitchen.

There will be a moratorium on forclosures and even payments of homes in areas where there is massive unemployment. They actually did this a few years ago when Opal came through Georgia and damaged the southern portion of the state. There was not a moratorium on home mortagages but on student loans and such. There was also vast government loans and maybe to lesser degree grants. I think we could asssume if the government survives it will act in the same way it has historically.

I do think you are going to have some serious sickness and riots that spill over into rural areas when people realize they are in the camps to just die as not enough food is coming. They will start to leave the camps and form their own "gangs" that will try to "take" what they need from surrounding communites. I see that is the most logical place where John is going to be very tied up shortly from the way the story is going.

Could be government enforced communes to grow food or raise animals and then communes to produce the food for sale. John and group could be tied up in that to as they have the knowledge to tell the communes how to do it. Could be government mill town type places where certain groups of people start to produce clothing and shoes etc again since supply lines are going to be cut off due to war and shortage of fuel so little imports of anywhere that was not devestated. These "mill towns" wouldn't most likely be owned by the government but strongly control by government regulations on how much the owners of the factories could keep for themselves and what they have to provide for their people. Kinda along the lines of what Schindler did with munitions production during WWII only the people are not exactly prisioners so must be treated better.

May need to see some mule pack trains or wagon trains starting up to get the midwest grain out to the other areas. Maybe some cattle drives. Some things need to revert back to 1800's and transportion except for officials would be good one.

 

[ChainedLightning]

Okay - at some point the government will realize it needs things built and people to build them. It will also realize a lot of people are homeless and hungry and need food and shelter. So, it will implement some kind of CCC type thing - if you're willing to work we will feed and house you and pay you a small amount of money. There is no way roads and bridges and government buildings and dams are going to be rebuilt if they don't do something along those lines.

Hopefully someone will realize they need to do something about feeding people SOON. The middle of the country still has food. Yes, the New Madrid had an earthquake, and yes there has been a lot of rain - but we all know there is plenty of grain and that kind of thing stored up that will keep people alive - the trick is in transporting it. The Government can probably get Fed Ex or UPS to move this stuff around in exchange for somethign (good-will advertising for when things pick up again, or a tax break, or a promise to bail them out - SOMETHING). Those planes are not delivering that much right now, and this will be the first step towards putting people back to work.

Also, we've helped other countries enough when they had problems - why couldn't some other countries send help to us now? A Russian plane could land with plenty of food and medical supplies... since we just bombed the crap out of China maybe Russia would be especially anxious to stay on our good side?

As for loans and mortgages - I would think that a logical government would step in and say the banks are closed - no interest is earned, no interest accrues, no bills are due - for a period of time - 90 days? And then there will be a period of time that foreclosures can not happen. (of course, that is assuming logic will be used - not a safe assumption)

The government can have plenty of cash delivered to the banks so when they reopen people can get the cash they need to buy things with. The banks can use that time to get their house in order (computer systems and manpower) before it is time to start back up again.

The big question is how will the insurance companies react? What if someone who lives in Miami was in South Dakota on business during impact? This person is going to expect their homeowners insurance to pay them.

There will be a LOT of insurance claims. Homeowners, automobile, life insurance, health insurance. Much of the homeowners insurance won't have to be paid (for instance - John Doe's house in Miami is destroyed but he is also killed and there is no will saying that there is a beneficiary and no son or daughter steps forward as one). Of course, if someone's beneficiary survived and had a copy of the will, then they'd theoretically get money from the homeowner's insurance AND money from the life insurance (assuming there was life insurance). It will get quite complicated and will take a LONG time to sort out. Assuming the insurance companies have the money to pay out - will they call it an act of god and say they aren't paying? That still leaves the earthquake victims - will they say the earthquake was because of impact and that was an act of god so it isn't covered? Will the government allow them to get away with that?

CL

 

[A.T.Hagan]

<i>have to say that I love the story. It brings up plenty of issues that we all need to think about, and try to prepare for</i>

Well, anytime I try my hand at disaster related fiction I try to keep it as realistic as circumstances permit and work in the practical difficulties that would arise and maybe some possible solutions. Fiction should entertain first and communicate a message second so sometimes it's hard to resolve.

.....Alan.

 

[Fuchi]

I’d like to think that the U.S. Government would handle the situation correctly, but unfortunately I really don’t think they would. I’m sure that there will be some type of in house fighting (power struggle) among the surviving members of Congress, Judicial Branch and of course the President. Then a possible power grab (unconstitutional laws and expansion of the FED Government). The liberals will be screaming about helping the needy, at the expense of the middle class.

Any word on what happened to the prison populations? What type of priority would they have?

Going to be some serious problems, cause we know the upper government lackeys will be well fed and cared for, a lot of supplies stashed in the FEMA or the Federal Government sponsored fallout shelters.

Government sponsored Roadblocks and attempts to contain the refugees from leaving the immediate area. Coupled with some type of local response to the tide of refugees.

Continued and more draconian measures to confiscate firearms, food clothing, and other FEMA deemed essentials, possibly even operating vehicles.

Martial law would be imposed by either the Federal Government, State Government or FEMA.

Shelters in town would more than likely be run by the American Red Cross or a similar organization.

Instead of wasting the dog meat (from the upcoming hunt), might be a good idea to process it and pass it on, or keep it. Meat is after all meat.

Someone may need to go and see what can be salvaged from the damaged areas.

 

[Conrad Nimikos]

A few things to consider:

1. Lots of unburied bodies = increase in the rodent population.

2. Increase in disease because of increase of rodents.

3. 40% of poulation still leaves more people than were in the country in 1940, possibly 1950.

4. Groups such as black muslems, seperatists, gangs, etc. Some areas of the country will be "cleansed".

 

[Deb Mc]

Alan,

A few ideas (some are repeating what others have already said):


- Creation of the CCC Corps for reconstruction jobs and building resettlement towns for the refugees.

- Extended "banking holiday" until recovery is well underway

- Nationalisation of all utilities and any businesses deemed "necessary to the recovery to the United States of America"

- I expect a resurgence in wood-gas generators for the farming community and some private autos. (Fuel cells perhaps, once the petroleum crisis is over.) This kind of ingenuity should become apparent once the mega-corporations have been hamstrung by lack of petroleum.

- Expect railroads and river travel to become *very* important once again.

- Snakeoil salesmen, cardsharks and religious emotionalism on a scale not seen since "The Great Awakening" (1830's?).


Environment:

As for further recovery efforts: What is the global recovery situation like? How much rainfall was received overseas and in what areas? Also, when the asteroid hit, did it change the Gulf Stream's flow? Did the heat from impact melt any ice at the polar caps?

A few thoughts:

- How badly were Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia and South America affected?

i.e. - Did the Netherland dikes break and flood the countryside?

-Is England, Finland, Sweden and northern Russia becoming another iceblock?

- How badly were Brazil and Central America, where we get much of our winter fruits, impacted?

- How much rain was distributed worldwide? Did it mainly stay in the northern hemisphere or was it fairly evenly distributed?

If Africa got more than it's fair share, northern Africa deserts could turn into prime grazing or agricultural land (as it once was during the previous Ice Ages, when it received more rain).


Political:

- If America took the brunt of impact damage, I'd expect our recovery to be *much* slower, due to sniping by our European "allies" and by "attacks of opportunity" by Russia and China.

- What happened to Saudi Arabia and the Middle Eastern oilfields? Is there fighting over the other unaffected petroleum resources (i.e. Russia's "Far East" provinces)?

- What is the U.S.' current political landscape? Are Bill and Hill trying to usurp power?

 

[Melodi]

Really interesting discussion! I mostly agree with what other people have already said. The main things I've been thinking about (while reading the story) are that very soon the starving people in the refugee camps are going to try and bail out (as out the people in the cities). And if the military is up to its eyeballs in China (and even if it weren't) I don't think they could stop everyone, all the time, from doing it. Despearte, starving people, possibly fleeing gunfire from their own "government" are not going to be nice. If stress enough, most of us are no longer nice, unless we have already starved to the point where we can't do much. Then we just sit there and take it, like you see today in parts of Africa and North Korea.

But there are two other really big issues that will really determine what happens next . The first, will the Chinese call the US bluff and expode atomic wepons in the US? This will cause a lot more death and distruction. Dispute what supply lines are forming, and generaly set recovery back a long ways. It may also panic people again beyond control, even faster than would have happened otherwise.

The second may be an even more immdiate problem...haveing collabroated with my husband on a set of novels set just after The Black Death in Germany (the second wave) I can say that it wouldn't take biological warfare to cause millions of people to start to die in those camps. If any sort of plauge started (especially a fast moveing one) panic would set in, and just as happened in the 14th century, people would flee and nothing would stop them. So now you have hungry, panicking, infectious people storming past their guards, into the countryside. Even if the troops went so far as to bomb some of the camps (shades of black death houses or neighborhoods being bricked in by their neighbors to die inside)they couldn't get everyone. The cat would already be out of the bag. And the military would not be exempt from it either, unless it was something they had already vaccinated against.

Things that happened in the 14th century...i.e. the remaining elites (such as the political leaders) fleeing to country estates trying to isolate themselves, gangs taking over the property of the sick, mass witch hunts of any group blamed for streading the infection (entire villages were burned that were plauge free in the middle ages as they were thought to be posining everyone else). Religious fanaticism, food hording, riots, etc., etc...you name it and this can all happen, even without an astorid or a nuclear war. For good background I'd suggest anyone interested to read Barbara Tuchman's book A Distant Mirror...it will make your hair stand on end when you start thinking about it in modern terms...and remember the 1st half of the 14th century had been so racked by floods, earthquakes, famines and war that Euopeans already thought that God was wrath was upon them...and that was before the plauge hit!

Anyway, looking forward to reading both book and threads,
Melodi

 

[Scottsworth]

Alan,

Damn, I haven't logged in for more than 5 minutes at a time for a couple of months but I found this thread today and I spent most of the afternoon at work reading it. Hope I don't get fired for this.

You have a captivating writing style. I was on the edge of my seat more than once.

As for some of your questions; I think the gooobermint would probably temporarily nationalize the utilities or at least require them to provide continuous service until some semblance of stability is reached, regardless of ability to pay. Same type of scenario with the banks and mortgages. After all this is a TRUE national emergency.

Write on ol boy, write on.

Scottsworth

 

[BillBk]

If you've lost the coasts,you've lost your ports,if you lose the gulf coast ( TX.,LA.) you've lost probably 80+ % of refining and one end of your big pipeline----no gasoline,fuel oil for the winter.
Federal Gov. will be impotent,all their best plans,intentions won't put gas and oil in vehicles and machinery if there isn't any.
We won't get any help from other countries,grain from Canada maybe,but there won't be any way to transport it. The only reason we always help other countries is because we have it to help with.
The water born diseases such as cholera,typhoid,yellow fever,hepetitus abcd will be running rampant.
Texas will probably be a republic again at the first oppurtinity!
A whole lot of that rain was salt water splash,there goes the corn fields.
It probably rained long enough all over to lose this yrs. crop and next yrs.
Your scenario is lots more catastropic than the elec. going off in an ice storm.....but keep it coming!

 

[tsherry]

RE: The Story

#1 - What is the government doing to get the nation back on its feet and productive as quickly as possible?
Well, as I see it, about 3/4 of the effective Federal government has been wiped out. How many congresscritters survived with 36 minutes warning is only your guess--half a dozen? Twenty? So, with a massive loss of TPTB (now: the powers that were?), and all associated military leadership, most of the civilian government and big hunks of the military leadership is now floating in debris. I would think that within a matter of a few days, the remaining Feds would evac the majority of the survivors from the affected areas, with the exceptions being law enforcement and body recovery teams. I would also think that there would be a spontaneous effort by the populace in the recovery. The grave injury to the Federal Government leaves a void that the State governments must fill. As soon as the situation can be accurately assessed, (within a few weeks at most), I would expect nationalization of most equipment, all fuel, and available resources for the rebuilding (note, I do not say 'recovery'. There can be no recovery when this much damage is done. )

Priorities on food, fuel, and disease prevention, probably in that order, until disease gets really bad. Can't do much without fuel for heat, transportation, etc.

I doubt that martial law, except in the urban areas, would be declared nationwide. I would expect the citizenry to defend themselves with extreme predjudice, though.

#2 - For those areas where it has been possible to maintain electrical power and telecomm how long do the respective companies continue to provide these services when so many people are out of work and may not be able to pay for them? Does the government involve itself in this?

The economy ceased to exist when DC and NYC were turned into mudflats. If a company shut off power to someone who could not pay due to the disaster, I'd expect someone to get hung, shot, or both. The government would nationalize the systems very quickly. This isn't about money anymore. It's survival. I'd be interested in a story segment that looks at the broader view of the power/fuel situation, nationwide. For example, what happens to the Bonneville Power Admin, if anything. Are we in the pacific NW one of the few remaining undamaged power systems in the continental US? Would the Chinese take an opportunity to whack this one remaining system?


#3 - Obviously the bottom has been well and truly blown out of the economy but how about folks with mortgages on real property, and other loans on tangible goods? Do the lending institutions try to demand payment? Does the government involve itself?

If the financial institutions remain at all, I'd be a little surprised....where does your mortgage payment go? NY? As Tom Clancy explored in one of his novels, most of the financial transactions in the world, including most IRA's, 401K's, mutuals, stock funds, etc. exist only in numbers in computers in NYC and a couple of other east coast locations, which do not exist any longer. The geography of liquidity risk--in other words, wipe out the data, and you create a clean slate. With regards to other payments, I'd expect the companies to demand payments--after all, the economy might have been erased, but the bills haven't. And there are many companies in many undamaged areas that want to get paid. The Government involves itself to a degree....but where this goes is anyone's guess.


How does the nation pick itself back up?

First, defend itself with appropriate measures..in other words, "keep your cool". Rebuild the refineries in surviving ports, rather than try to repair those wiped off the map. Relocate survivors to the inland cities closer to newly diversified food production centers. Re-create a new economy based on gold and silver standards.

I don't know if rebuilding the destroyed cities is feasible, or wise. Does it make sense to rebuild a city that was there only because of some decision in the 17th century? Is there any soil left? What about the debris field? How do you build a new city on the unstable muddy wreckage of a former metropolis?

The story is a GREAT read. I'd love to see it fleshed out with John Horne's other family members in other parts of the country, or another perspective from other locations. How bad did Europe get whacked? What about aircraft travel at the opint of Impact? Being a military thriller/Tom Clancy/techno fan, I'd also like to see what happened with military bases and our overall effectiveness as a fighting force. Does Pearl Harbor still exist? Is there seawater in Punchbowl Crater?

Many other posters have talked about the remaining nations that would have been hit by Impact: Perhaps you could include an 'update' story on the radio broadcasts. With the weather patterns as heavily affected as you suggest, I would expect that 1)winter will be very early, 2) and be severe) and survival without adequate food/heat will be the issue worldwide. The possibilities are endless. Keep up the good work.

 

[flight recorder]

I see ordinary people taking the initiative to jump in and help out, just like happened in the Quebec ice storm, borders disappear, people open their hearts and pocketbooks. Like antibodies rushing to fight infection, human populations gravitate towards areas of distress and provide healing force. This is driven from the grassroots level, from the bottom up, with governments attempting to provide facilitation according to demand (but mostly chasing their own tail). Canadians will be a major partner in recovery efforts followed closely by resources provided by other western countries. In times of widespread disaster the human psyche drops petty differences and forms cooperative liasons to restore 'normality'.
As far as the Chinese are concerned I seriously doubt that they would make a move on Taiwan, or militarily - anywhere else. They are shrewd businessmen more than warriors and they would recognize a huge opportunity to co-opt a large part of the U.S. economy by selling much needed resources (products) and services. I'd be watching my back for the Arabs tho', the Koreans, and maybe the Russians.
This is such a cool idea, this interactive story development and 'beta' testing in this cyber community. This to me demonstrates the true spirit of the internet. I applaud you not only for your courage to put your creative efforts on the line but also to not be possessive about the outcome.

 

[A.T.Hagan]

Folks, y'all are doing a great job here.

Some of your points I've already thought out fairly well.

Others I've only given passing consideration to and have missed a few implications.

Yet others I haven't thought of at all.

Please do keep up your good work here. Many things having their genesis in this thread will eventually find their way into the story.

Keep 'em coming!

.....Alan.

 

[BillBk]

I can't wait for you to clean it up and post it as an e-book somewhere! and when the 1084 page novel comes out,I would hope that this board gets signed editions!
If the east coast goes,this great land of OZ held together with a piece of plastic and electronic transfers will be upside down.
I see a disturbing number of people posting that the fed. goobermint will take care of everything-----won't be any infrastructure left to take care of it with....worrys me that these are the same types that will starve to death with chickens loose and running up and down the road and those squirells eating out of their cutsy feeders and trying to call a non existant law enforcement agency when they notice a gang of looters starting down their street.
Keep up the good work,check's in the mail!

 

[Mac]

Well, I'm assuming the worst for the eastern seaboard, which means NY and Washington have taken sever hits.

For all practicle purposes, the federal government probably has ceased to exist outside of military command, the bureaucracy in Washington having been washed away by the disaster. The coastal areas would, in effect be under military control with local law enforcement tied in. I think you've done a good job showing that. All debts and such would be frozen for a set time until things could get back to some sense of normal, then the government would reopen the issue and make a determination case by case. Given the magnitude of the situation, the freeze could last several years.

In the less effected areas, day to day governance would fall much more to the state and local powers. States like Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, etc would see little federal oversite outside of military involvement. These areas would most likely rally to aide the survivors in any way they could, sending food, clothing, etc. I also would expect the military to try to disperse the refugees further into the "uneffected" regions, moving as many displaced people as possible out of areas like Florida and into areas like the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex, Kansas City metro area, etc.

I also agree with the idea of a new CCC for the newly unemployed. Reconstruction would be a massive undertaking, but the workforce would be there.

Of course, alot depends on where you're taking the US/China (and Russia?) conflict. A nuclear exchange could unravel any plans to rebuild and formerly "safe" areas become nuclear rubble. If that's the case, then one of two things could happen;

a) As the federal government disolves and the military is wounded in a nuke fight, we see the breakup of the union into smaller regional governments and paramilitary forces.

b) A massive UN/EU intervention as the US becomes a UN/EU dependent nation. Troops from Europe could move in to police the remains of the union, take up the reigns of power, etc.

 

[rb.]

Well, Alan, I'm not thinking very well at the moment (overload of tasks), but I agree with Flight Recorder that Canada and the Canadian gov't would play a large part in assistance. I'm trying to sort out the facts in this story and Patriots, which I'm currently reading, but IIRC, you left the impression that the Canadian capital of Ottawa was physically unaffected. In that case, the Canadian gov't is intact, and able to do all it can. If you use this, you may want to keep in mind that the Cdn. gov't commits to support quickly in these types of situations, but is slow to act because of logistics. Refugees temporarily sent to Canadian homes? Has happened with the last round in the Baltics. Our pop. of those born-in-country (read white) is shrinking (so we constantly hear), so I'd bet we'd be happy to take on more citizens, even if retaining US citizenship.

I'm certain we'd be shipping food, meds, and manpower to the US.

As for being 29 days in, I think this would still be a point in time where most people are expecting normalcy to return at any second. At least structurally. What's happening when they realize it's not going to? I can see the remaining powers not being able to get their acts together quickly enough to keep the telecomm system up. Good ideas, too late? People not willing to work without pay/food? Indecision regarding who pays? (ie gov't vs business, if business still exists)

I think at this point there would be a lot of suicides, murders, etc., as people struggle living in a new world that doesn't conform to the rules they've lived by all this time.

Hope some of this makes sense, I'm now shutting off my foggy brain. : )

 

[BillBk]

The larger unaffected cities (DFW/KC) don't want your poor,your tired,your huddled masses.....
The larger unaffected pop. ctrs. will be falling apart--no food distribution coming in.....maybe a month of stores on hand but I doubt it.
What trucks are trying to get thru are being hijacked,and it's getting so bad that no one wants to try and deliver anything without a military escort.

 

[Fuchi]

The large cities will be in trouble too. If food, fuel and other resources are not shipped in daily, they will start to feel the pinch faster than people out in the burbs.

So I'm sure there would be some type of civil unrest there as well.

 

[BillBk]

Well yeah,after the larger cities fold up and are looted,that just adds to the growing number of displaced people headed towards the smaller cities and towns, who are gonna start bustin caps trying to hang on to what little they have left.....

 

[Melodi]

Someone asked about Europe..?hmmmm we're in the exact middle of Ireland, so provided we didn't wash away, I immagine that by day 29 life would be something like this.

All major cities (including Dublin, Galway, Cork and Belfast) are coastal, so they are just gone. With three hours notice, many of our friends who know to come here could make it, I'd like to immagine that we had some people over already (we often do) so we might very well have at least 20 people on our six arces. We are two miles from the village, and I suspect that at 29 days, the village is suddenly a very important place. Farmers will be starting to kill of their excess animals (though not as fast as the US since we do mostly grass feeding here). Salt may become a medium of exchange as well as potatoes. The village priest, the elementary school principle, the main shop ower and the local guarda (police officer) are now the most important people in town.

There would be no central government at all, though there would be rumors about "Gangs from Dublin" (which no longer exists but never mind) and "Rements of the English Army" (more likely but no one has seen any yet, just sure that their cousin has). Commnication on what's left of the Island would likely be a combination of ham radio, the local market (which would go back to being every Thursday afternoon in most villages) and messages delivered by horseback. Some radios might be working (lots of people have short wave here). And car batteries may be another medium of exchange (to power lights and small appliances, such as radios). Petrol will be running out for those lucky enough to have generators. Most of us will have been useing our kerosene lanterns for days and be starting to run out of oil for them as well.

The priest will be trying to find families to take in the displaced people as they make their way down the roads, thankfuly we are off the main one so its not as bad as other places. Wagon's are being taken out of sheds, horses are re-learning to drive them (many still can). We will have locked our carriage horse in the stable as she is now our most valuable animal beside the pigs. Unable to feed all of our horses, we may have to make painful choices about the extra ones. Anyone lucky enough to have potatoes to put aside for next Spring will be guarding them well. We'd probably have at least two people going around the property day and night.

But in other ways, the average person here is luckier than in the US. True, we have no central government, no electricity (there are rumor that the old turf fired plant in Tuellemore may be running soon, but the storms have knocked down most overhead power lines) no running water and no heating oil. But we do have a strong village structure, solid fuel stoves (almost everyone home has one), turf in the shed, and the old village handpumps (plus buckets and pumps jerr-rigged up to old wells). Plus we have many people who grew up without electricity and know how to make do as well as many people who know about horses and other livestock. Our immdiate worries are going to be:

feeding ourselves and our breeding animals

Preserving meat from animals slaughtered

protecting our property, both from outsiders and well meaning attempts at local food rationing (which we would partipate in but not to the point of giveing all we had)

finding enough dry fuel to get through the winter as any turf will be unfit to cut for as much as a year

Illness caused by damp, wet houses and breathing smoke from fireplaces and stoves.

Finding spaces for people who do move here

Keeping up with the outside world...there's rumors that someone two villages over has a satlelight internet hookup and computer..?

And our biggest challenge here at the household might be helping people cope with greif, depression and hoplessness. We get a lot of light related depression at the best of times, but 28 days of rain, along with many people (including partners and children) gone for every. Its a recipie for folks just wanting to give up.

So, I guess we'd better make sure that the still is up and running pretty quickly,


Melodi

 

[A.T.Hagan]

Interesting perspective Melodi.

Have you read any of Edward Hughe's Barley Cross stories? Now there's an interesting collection of survival stories in Ireland for you.

.....Alan.

 

[Melodi]

Hi - thi s is Melodi again, I got so caught up in the Ireland post I forgot what really hit me late last night. Everywhere, one thing is now missing from life. Easy and obtainable birth control and given that people in a crises like to get close to each other...well, I figure in a couple of weeks a lot of ladies are going to wake up feeling very quesy in the morning...

Melodi

 

[Chapulin]

I've been thinking more about this thread.

Energy runs through this story as a problem, what happens to pipelines, underground storage, etc. With reduced supply lines, similar to Y2k expectations, how much coal & gas can move around for power and how much oil moves around for fuel.

Shipping is another problem. Seems like most cranes in US container ports should be unusable from the original impact. All those container ships randomly on the open sea should be arriving, but how do you offload? How many container ships were stuck in port and created blocking accidents?

Truly enjoying this series!
Chap

 

[Mac]

Energy is an interesting issue. I guess alot would depend on the nature of the damage to the GUlf Coast. Since I know little to nothing about what an inpact would do to these areas, its hard to comment. There is alot of oil refinery capacity and resurves in the costal region of Texas and Louisianna. If the waves took these out, we'd have a lot of problems. If we still had refining capability, I think the central region would survive okay. There is alot of agricultural capability in the plains states, from Texas on up through Iowa and Nebraska. These regions should continue (with fuel and electricity) to produce food and ship it where needed. Obviously, some fruit crops would be lost, but production in Texas and California could make up some of the difference. I just don't see a huge loss in food production from this, although shipping in some areas could be a huge problem. As long as there wasn;t a huge fuel shortage, most areas in the lesser/uneffected areas should still be able to recieve basic food stuff. Getting food to the damaged areas would be a problem, but less from a shortage and more from the inability to move into and out off an area. Obviously, transportation here would be under military operation becuase of their ability to operate in underdeveloped terrain and basic security needs. Now, if our ability to refine petroleum products is crippled, then things change dramatically, alhtough I would guess that the government would divert as much as possible to the agricultural and transportation sector.

 

[A.T.Hagan]

Most of that refinery capacity is right on the Mississippi river isn't? In the lower end of Louisiana? That area will have received serious damage from the tsunami (not as big as on the East coast but bad enough) and the subsequent rainfall induced flooding.

Anyone know what refinery capacity we have left on the West Coast, even refineries that aren't presently running at the time?

.....Alan.

 

[Mac]

Well, did a bit o research, but unfortunatly, the energy dept has removed on-line maps and stuff.

Oil refinery capacity is highest in Texas, LA, Cal., and Ill., and the strategic oil reserves are in Texas and LA.

Basically, it looks like there would be a hit, with some facilities wiped out, some damaged, and some able to proceed mostly uninterupted. Given the location of the strategic reservesa and their location being in saltdomes, we could assume the loss of some of our reserve, but not a total loss.

Basically, the US would look to face a sever crisis of petroleum, but maybe not a fatal one. Fuel would be heavily rationed in the public sector while being diverted to the most critical of needs (military, transportation, etc.). One the demand side, there would be a reduction of demand from the consumer side as all recreational travel would stop (bye bye airline industry) and, morbidly) roughly 1/7th of the consumer market would cease to exist.

Given the location of the remaining refining capacity, the Plains states would probably be effected the least, but would still suffer from heavy rationing to the general public. The east and west, being further from the remaining refining capacity would be worse off as transportation becomes less and less reliable and the amount of civil control diminishes.

The interesting dimension here is political. How much control does the federal government have versus the local and state governments. What if the governors or Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, etc. formed an alliance to buck federal authority and seized all in-state infrastructure and resources for use by their own states citizens? How bad is the military hurt with the loss of the eastern seaboard bases and the need to police the damaged areas, let alone the conflict with China? If the governors called up the state guards and local police forces to seize all authority over their states, could the federal government do anything? Would the states do such a thing in a time of disaster and limited resources?

 

[A.T.Hagan]

Thanks Mac, that's about what I figured. Things will begin to reveal themselves shortly.

As an aside, when I get around to doing the rewrite I think I'll have to revise the timeline between the impact, tsunamis and rainfall. Looks like I've stretched it out a bit much but I haven't gotten around to figuring actual distance.

I did a search last week but couldn't seem to put it together properly to get what I wanted. Does anyone know the distance from

Bermuda to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina

Bermude to Jacksonville, Florida?

Thanks!

.....Alan.

 

[Mac]

To Jacksonville, FL - 1012 miles (880 nautical miles)

Neat website for that kinda stuff:

http://www.indo.com/distance/index.html

 

[A.T.Hagan]

Thanks Mac, that IS a neat site.

Yep, I've got to adjust the timing on the tsunamis, they'd have come in about two hours earlier. Shouldn't require major changes to the storyline though I'll just have to tweak it to make it work.

It's been a slow afternoon so I managed to get a second piece done. Might be slow going next week when the new semester starts. The wife's in grad school and is taking her last two classes and prepping for her master's comps. Hopefully I'll be close to done by then.

.....Alan.

 

[Melodi]

Good luck with your busy week, guess I'll have to go out and find those books you mentioned.. while waiting for the next installment on yours.

Melodi

 

[thinkingplus]

when talking of returning to the gold, silver standard , are you thinking of mining for them ?

 

[Renegade]

Great job Allen,

When you first introduced Miguel, I wondered if he was going to be smart enough to stash gas....since he owned a station. Looks like he was...

 

[Bill Clo]

Alan,

I have a question for you concerning the tsunami/tidal wave from the asteroid hit in your story. Where did you get your information on how big the wave would likely be, and how far inland it'd likely go?

Reason I ask is that I was under the impression that because of the shallow and wide Continental shelf, the wave would actually be higher than if it were much narrower. Or am I totally wrong?

I've looked all over the Net for useable info on tsunamis, such as likely areas to be innundated, etc, without success. Even tried NOAA, etc, but they were too busy to be bothered, it appears.

I suspect that where I am located wouldn't have been too healthy to be in your story. SC PA state, at the western edge of the Susquehanna valley - right upriver from the Chesapeake Bay. Ugh.

 

[A.T.Hagan]

Bill,

I tried not to get too specific about the tsunamis because A LOT depends on local topography offshore and on shore.

A tsunami is basically a giant compression wave. The size of the object impacting the water and the velocity at which it strikes determine how great the compression will be. In deep water most of that pressure wave would stay submerged with only about fifteen, maybe twenty meters of the wave produced by the size of rock I specified rising above the surface like a large swell and moving very fast.

It's when the tusnami approaches the continental shelf that matters begin to get complicated. Obviously as the depth becomes shallower the wave slows causing the water to pile up but how much it'll pile up depends on the specific topography of the area. This is called the <i>run-up factor</i> and there's disagreement amongst the varous authorities about how large it would be even when everyone has agreed on the same topography.

As a general rule a shallow broad continental shelf is better because it forces the wave to crest much further away from land. It takes a lot of energy to keep that much water piled up that high and moving forward so when it finally does hit land it can't maintain itself for very far thus the reason it only made it ten to twenty miles into Florida. A shallow, <i>narrow</i> continental shelf won't do this for you. A deep continental shelf allows the wave to nearly reach shore before it begins to pile up so that most of its energy will be spent crossing land.

On a flat plain the run up factors are fairly low so the wave won't reach as much height. In areas like river valleys that grow narrower the wave tends to be concentrated and focused into itelf which will serve to run it up much higher than it would otherwise be. A river valley near to the Chesapeake Bay would be a bad place to be in this instance and that's just where a lot of our eastern cities are that aren't right on the coast.

When I posted the first piece I was pounding it out off the top of my head intending to do just that one piece and no more. Now it's turning into at least a novella and maybe even a full fledged novel (my wife and I are negotiating this) which is going to require me to go back and do the math on the size of the impactor, its velocity, the size of the deep water wave, the run up factors and what not, which means I'll probably have to adjust the original story somewhat. Probably have to adjust the wave height, how far inland it reaches and so on. Basically, I'm trying to use a rock just inside the mass/size range the current asteroid detection systems are looking for that's still big enough to wipe out the coastal cities of the Eastern Seaboard and reach inland as well.

To be clear I wouldn't want anyone to try to judge their personal situation on the basis of this story - there's just too many variables that come into play - and even if I did state them for many areas they would only be good for a rock of roughly the mass I stated and the velocity at which it impacted. Bumping it up to a thousand yards from the 750 I used would make a major change in everything.

.....Alan.