AP reported last night:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38657081/ns/disaster_in_the_gulfBP, U.S. mull whether to skip 'bottom kill'The federal government and BP have recently raised the possibility that they won't need to perform the operation at all, since the well was plugged last month with mud and cement pumped in through the top.
***
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...o-finish-drilling-relief-well-allen-says.html
Similarly, Bloomberg writes today:
BP Plc may not finish drilling a relief well to its Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico, National Incident Commander Thad Allen said during a conference call today.
The relief well, which for months has been touted by the U.S. government as the ultimate solution to stopping the flow from Macondo -- a process known as “killing” the well -- may not be needed after all, Allen said.
Oil industry expert Robert Cavnar has a must-read piece today on the situation:
http://dailyhurricane.com/2010/08/adm-allen-confused---so-now-is-everybody-else.html
For the last several days, I've been trying to figure out what BP is doing and what is the actual condition of BP's MC252 well after their "static kill" and cementing procedure last week apparently didn't work.
All was right with the world. Except, it wasn't. Day before yesterday, Adm. Allen announced they were going to start a "pressure test", babbling about the annulus and raising the ominous spectre that they are still actually communicated to the reservoir. Wells confirmed that fear in the afternoon, admitting that they indeed had 4,200 psi on the well when it's supposed to be dead. At the seafloor, the well should have no more than 2,200 psi on it, and conceivable less, if the hydrostatic of the mud in the closed well had overcome reservoir pressure. Then it got really confusing. Wells said that it wouldn't hold 4,200 psi because of "bubbles" leaking out of the wellhead, implying that they are pumping on it to keep it there, but that they're going to "test" it by relieving pressure. ?? Also, the more Adm. Allen explains what's going on, the more the press gets confused. Hell, I understand this business and I'm confused.
-snip-
Clear as drilling mud. What's going on here is that the "static kill" looks like it did the opposite of what BP and Allen had suggested at the beginning. It certainly hasn't accelerated the relief well.
The mis-information and confusion is also taking its toll. I got asked in an interview yesterday that since the well is "dead" now, why are they bothering with the relief well? AP reported last night that BP and the government are contemplating skipping the bottom kill. Every time Wells, Suttles, or Allen get in front of a microphone, everyone gets even more confused, mis-informed, or both; everyone just wants this to go away, but it's not going away; not until the relief well kills from the bottom as we've been saying for over 3 months.
In actuality, this "static kill" did nothing that BP and Allen said it would do. Certainly the well is not dead or "static". It hasn't accelerated the relief well, but it has obscured the well's pressures, making it more difficult to kill. Hence, these new tests to figure out what's going on. BP and the government don't really have a clue where the 2,300 barrels of mud and 500 barrels of cement went. They originally claimed it all went down the casing and out to the reservoir. I would set the probability of that actually having happened at zero. Here's why: The positive test on the casing the night of the blowout was rock solid. The casing was good. It is possible that they may have collapsed the production casing during the blowout, but that would have been relatively high up in the wellbore, probably where they had displaced with seawater on the inside. If that happened, it would be communicated with the backside. In addition, at the bottom of the production casing is a float shoe, 134 feet of cement in the shoe track, then a float collar, then 2 cementing plugs with probably cement on top of those. Oh, and don't forget about the 3,000 feet of drill pipe hanging inside all of that. There is no way, unless that entire float assembly blew off, that they pumped down the casing and up the backside. On top of all that, there are HUGE lost circulation zones both below and above the reservoir. During drilling they lost 3,000 barrels of mud trying to drill that last section.
So, where did all the mud and cement go? It likely went down the backside of the production casing and either out through some damage that was caused during the aborted top kill, or out the lost circulation zone right below the 9 7/8" liner at 17,100. The fact that they're getting pressure now tells me that they are indeed communicated to the reservoir below, probably obscured by the fact that they now have mud strung through the annulus. If they are indeed communicated, pressure will build on the wellhead, which is exactly what's happening. Adm. Allen pledged to get BP to release the pressure data 3 days ago. The next day, when asked about it, he said it was released, but "nobody can find it." The data is still AWOL.
So, now, here we sit, waiting on weather again, and then we're going to pressure test a well that's supposed to be dead instead of getting the relief well finished. The press is confused; the public is bored.
Important read here. It's long, so I'll quote some of the doom....there's a lot of nested quotes so I highly recommend reading at the source:
(Found at Rense) http://www.zerohedge.com/article/wi... The press is confused; the public is bored.
Wait... what?!
http://whatreallyhappened.com/IMAGES/Well A vs. Well B Sheet 1 v2.jpg
There's TWO wells!?!?!?
I agree......I think BP and the feds are probably cursing behind the scenes.....at least the ones with a conscience. Allen is probably going to need a triple bipass after this thing is done.I pray I'm wrong, but I really think, from all I've read, that they're scared to death.
If they "don't" drill the relief well, sooner or later the building pressure will either gouge exit holes right up through the earth into the open ocean floor---with no way at all to cut it off, or start seeping up around the well again or even blow off the cap....
If they "do" drill the relief well, when the line makes connection with all that oil and methane gas under such high pressure it will do a "DH Explosion redux" and blow sky-high again---and they'll have no idea what to do to stop it.
Praying I"m wrong...but the conflicting signals out of Washington, BP, and the Coast Guard are not reassuring.
I pray I'm wrong, but I really think, from all I've read, that they're scared to death.
If they "don't" drill the relief well, sooner or later the building pressure will either gouge exit holes right up through the earth into the open ocean floor---with no way at all to cut it off, or start seeping up around the well again or even blow off the cap....
If they "do" drill the relief well, when the line makes connection with all that oil and methane gas under such high pressure it will do a "DH Explosion redux" and blow sky-high again---and they'll have no idea what to do to stop it.
Praying I"m wrong...but the conflicting signals out of Washington, BP, and the Coast Guard are not reassuring.
...On a side note............this hurricane season, that was supposed to be a whopper, has turned out to be a dud, and I don't think it's coincidence. I think the HAARP gang may actually be lending us a hand ...........for once.
thanks for posting my thoughts as i scroll thru the rest of the worlds disaster unexplained weather........
Press Briefing by National Incident Commander Thad Allen, August 18, 2010 at 12:15 p.m. EDT:
We’re concerned about the vital signs of this well. We continue to be concerned about the vital signs.
Our first goal is to do no harm. We are doing extensive consultation between our engineering team and the BP engineers. We are moving to prepare the well, the BOP, and a new blowout preventer for either course of action, whether it is putting a blowout preventer before or after we do the bottom kill. We will know when we have satisfied ourselves that we know the vital signs and we’ve removed every piece — any shadow of a doubt of any information we could develop from top side before we go forward…
We’re trying to do two things while the evaluation of alternatives is going on. We have the opportunity to develop more vital signs for the well, one of them being to remove all foreign objects — all foreign liquids from the current well, flush it, and fill it with seawater, so we have exactly the same density of material inside and outside the BOP that will allow us to do an ambient pressure test to see if there’s any kind of pressure, a rise or fall related to something other than what we believe now to be the gas bubbles that are escaping and causing the drop in pressure.
http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/full/jama.2010.1254[FONT=verdana, arial, helvetica, sans-serif]Rush Transcript Summary
Flushing out current BOP, looking for material that might pose a problem.
Move to put a new BOP on.
Then do the bottom kill.
If everything lines up we should be looking at the week after labor day… hopefully… hopefully.
An out-of-control oil well in Louisiana’s Assumption Parish could continue gushing for six weeks, following a blowout last week. Last Wednesday’s blowout resulted in the evacuation of residents from six nearby homes and shut down a two-mile stretch of Louisiana highway 70, between Louisiana highways 1 and 996, according to a report on DailyComet.com.
He further went on to note the tipping point from which the ecosystem in the Gulf wouldn’t recover.
http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/
THURSDAY, AUGUST 19, 2010
Top Expert: Geology is "Fractured", Relief Wells May Fail ... BP is Using a "Cloak of Silence", Refusing to Share Even Basic Data with the Government
Few people in the world know more about oil drilling disasters than Dr. Robert Bea.
Bea teaches engineering at the University of California Berkeley, and has 55 years of experience in engineering and management of design, construction, maintenance, operation, and decommissioning of engineered systems including offshore platforms, pipelines and floating facilities. Bea has worked for many years in governmental and quasi-governmental roles, and has been a high-level governmental adviser concerning disasters. He worked for 16 years as a top mechanical engineer and manager for Shell Oil, and has worked with Bechtel and the Army Corps of Engineers. One of the world's top experts in offshore drilling problems, Bea is a member of the Deepwater Horizon Study Group, and has been interviewed by news media around the world concerning the BP oil disaster.
Washington's Blog spoke with Dr. Bea yesterday.
WB: Is BP sharing information with the government?
Bea: No. BP is using a "cloak of silence". BP is not voluntarily sharing information or documents with the government.
In May, for example, Senator Boxer subpoenaed information from BP regarding footage of the seafloor taken before the blowout by BP's remotely operated vehicles (ROVs). We still have not received a response 12 weeks later.
[Bea subsequently clarified that he's not sure whether BP has failed to release the information, or Senator Boxer's committee has sat on the information. My bet is on BP. Indeed, BP has refused to answer some very basic written questions from Congressman Markey, chair of the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming. See this and this. Indeed, it is unclear whether BP is sharing vital details even with Thad Allen, Secretary of energy Chu, or the Unified Command].
WB: Might there be problems with the relief wells? I know that it took a couple of relief wells to finally stop the Ixtoc leak, and it has taken as many as 5 relief wells to stop some blowouts.
Bea: Yes, it could take repeated attempts.
WB: Are there any conditions at BP's well which might make killing the leak with relief wells more difficult than with the average deepwater oil spill?
Bea: That's an interesting question. You have to ask why did this location blow out when nearby wells drilled in even deeper water didn't blow out.
You have to look at the geology of the Macondo well. It is in a subsalt location, in a Sigsbee salt formation. [For background, see this and this]
The geology is fractured.
Usually, the deeper you drill, the more pressure it takes to fracture rock. This is called the "fracture gradient".
But when BP was drilling this well, the fracture gradient reversed. Indeed, BP lost all pressure as it drilled into the formation.
WB: Is it possible that this fractured, subsea salt geology will make it difficult to permanently kill the oil leak using relief wells?
Bea: Yes, it could. The Santa Barbara channel seeps are still leaking, decades after the oil well was supposedly capped. This well could keep leaking for years.
Scripps mapped out seafloor seeps in the area of the well prior to the blowout. Some of the natural seeps penetrate 10,000 to 15,000 feet beneath the seafloor. The oil will follow lines of weakness in the geology. The leak can travel several horizontal miles from the location of the leak.
[In other words, the geology beneath the seafloor is so fractured, with soft and unstable salt formations, that we may never be able to fully kill the well even with relief wells. Instead, the loss of containment of the oil reservoir caused by the drilling accident could cause oil to leak out through seeps for years to come. See this and this for further background].
WB: I know that you've previously said that you're concerned that there might be damage to the well bore, which could make it more difficult for the relief wells to succeed.
Bea: Yes, that's still a concern.
WB: I have heard that BP is underestimating the size of the oil reservoir (and see this). Is it possible that the reservoir is bigger than BP is estimating, and so - if not completely killed - the leak could therefore go on for longer than most assume?
Bea: That's plausible.
WB: The chief electronics technician on the Deepwater Horizon said that the Macondo well was originally drilled in another location, but that "going faster caused the bottom of the well to split open, swallowing tools", and that BP abandoned that well. You've spoken to that technician and looked into the incident, and concluded that “they damn near blew up the rig.” [See this and this].
Do you know where that abandoned well location is, and do you know if that well is still leaking?
Bea: The abandoned well is very close to the current well location. BP had to file reports showing the location of the abandoned well and the new well [with the Minerals Management Service], so the location of the abandoned well is known.
We don't know if the abandoned well is leaking.
WB: Matthew Simmons talked about a second leaking well. There are rumors on the Internet that the original well is still leaking. Do you have any information that can either disprove or confirm that allegation?
Bea: There are two uncorroborated reports. One is that there is a leak 400 feet West of the present well's surface location. There is another report that there is a leak several miles to the West.
[Bea does not know whether either report is true at this time, because BP is not sharing information with the government, let alone the public.]
WB: There are rumors on the Internet of huge pockets of methane gas under the well which could explode. I've looked into this rumor, and have come to the conclusion that - while the leak is releasing tremendous amounts of methane - there are no "pockets" of methane gas which could cause explosions. Do you have any information on this?
Bea: I have looked into this and discussed methane with people who know a tremendous amount about it. There is alot of liquid and solid methane at the Macondo site, but no pockets of methane gas.
WB: That's good news, indeed.
Bea: But there was one deepwater leak I worked with where tremendous amounts of hydrogen sulfite were released. We had to evacuate two towns because of the risk. [I didn't ask Dr. Bea if there were any dangerous compounds which could be formed from the interaction of the crude oil and methane with chemicals in the ocean water or dispersants].
And with the Bay Charman oil leak, more than 50% of the oil stayed below the surface of the ocean. [As I've previously pointed out, the US Minerals Management Service and a consortium of oil companies, including BP, found that as little as 2% of the oil which spill from deepwater wells ever makes it to the surface of the ocean. And the use of dispersant might decrease that number still further].
WB: I have previously argued that nuking the well would be a bad idea. What do you think?
Bea: [Bea agreed that nuking the well would be counter-productive. He told me a story about a leaking deepwater well that he was involved in killing. A nuclear package was on its way to the well site but - fortunately - the well stopped by itself before a nuke was deployed. I'm not sure whether this is classified information, so I won't disclose the name of the well. Bea also discussed alternatives in the form of high-pressure, high-temperature conventional explosives, echoing what Bill Clinton said recently].
WB: Thank you for your generous time and for sharing your expertise with us, Dr. Bea.
Bea: You're welcome.
In the real world the practice would be to achieve the pressure balance with the mud (which they claim they have), then tie back onto the stack with a riser from a drill ship. The riser would then be filled with drilling mud. Then the drill ship would lower a new drill string from the rig with a fishing tool, tie onto the old drill string, open the original BOP and try to remove the old drill string from the well.
If that operation was successful the next step would be to re enter the well with whatever tools needed to ensure the well bore was clear (remove junk, identify blockages, etc.), and then return into the well to begin cementing at various depths. This process would be tested in stages to ensure adequate cement bonding before moving on to the next stage repeated until the well is sealed. Finally the BOP would be removed and the well head capped. Honestly plugged and abandoned by law.
WASHINGTON — The company that owned the oil rig that exploded in the Gulf of Mexico is accusing BP of withholding critical evidence needed to investigate the cause of the worst offshore oil spill in U.S. history, according to a confidential document obtained by The Associated Press. BP called the claims a publicity stunt.
The new complaint by Transocean follows similar complaints by U.S. lawmakers about difficulties obtaining necessary information from BP in their investigations.
In a sternly worded letter to BP's attorneys, Transocean said the oil giant has in its sole possession information key to identifying the cause "of the tragic loss of eleven lives and the pollution in the Gulf of Mexico."
BP's refusal to turn over the documents has hampered Transocean's investigation and hindered what it has been able to tell families of the dead and state and federal investigators about the accident, the letter said.
BP and Transocean appear likely to face off in court over how much each should pay out for the tragedy. Transocean owned the Deepwater Horizon, the rig that exploded and sank, killing 11 workers and unleashing millions of gallons (litres) of oil. BP was the operator and majority owner of the well.
BP spokeswoman Elizabeth Ashford said Transocean's accusations were misleading and misguided.
In a biting response late Thursday, BP told Transocean in a letter that Transocean's claims were "nothing more than a publicity stunt evidently designed to draw attention away from Transocean's potential role in the Deepwater Horizon tragedy."
In the dispute over documents, Transocean said that BP released limited records only after the company agreed to sign a confidentiality agreement at BP's request.
Transocean said that the limited information it has retrieved from BP came only after the company reluctantly signed a confidentiality agreement.
"Despite our reservations, we agreed to BP's condition of secrecy because there is no other source of key well data," the letter said.
Transocean wants 16 pieces of technical information from BP, including pressure tests, logs and other data.