WAR North Korea Main Thread - All things Korea June 17th - June 23th

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
North Korea Main Thread - All things Korea June 10th - June 16th
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...n-Thread-All-things-Korea-June-10th-June-16th

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/th...orea-secretly-funds-its-nuclear-weapons-21198

The Buzz

Exposed: How North Korea Secretly Funds Its Nuclear Weapons

Zachary Keck
June 16, 2017

A new report details the extensive illicit overseas network North Korea maintains to fund its nuclear-weapons and missile programs.

Despite being under some of the most draconian international sanctions to date, North Korea has continued to demonstrate that is capable of funding its effort to build a nuclear warhead and the necessary systems to deliver one. If anything, funding for these systems seems to have increased in recent years: since the beginning of last year, Kim Jong-un has tested more ballistic missiles than his father and grandfather tested in twenty-seven years combined. All of this costs a lot of money in terms of material and manpower.

After promising to prevent North Korea from acquiring an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to the U.S. homeland, President Donald Trump has largely turned to China to increase the economic pressure on the Kim regime. To do this successfully will require first understanding how the North Korean regime pays for its weapons program.

Fortunately for the Trump regime, one organization has provided a modicum of hope. In a new report entitled, “Risky Business,” C4ADS, a DC-based nonprofit dedicated to providing data-driven analysis and evidence-based reporting on security issues, provides a stunningly thorough examination of the globe-spanning enterprise the Kim regime uses to fund its illicit activities.

C4ADS begins by disputing the notion that North Korea is an “isolated” hermit kingdom, declaring that “in truth, the North Korean regime, far from being isolated, is globally active through its overseas networks,” which extend as far as the United States. The report states that North Korea’s networks “have grown into a complex overseas financing and procurement system over the past decade, earning hard currency through reported schemes as diversified as sales of military equipment, cybercrime, printing of counterfeit currency, rhino horn smuggling, and narcotics trafficking.” It goes on to say, these “networks have shown a deep understanding of how the systems of international trade, finance, and transportation work and, thus, how to nest their illicit activities within them.”

North Korea has been so successful at establishing these networks partly because its operators have been able to obscure illicit activity within legitimate economic businesses. The report quotes one former senior U.S. official: “The line between North Korea’s licit and illicit money is nearly invisible.” North Korea disguises most of its illicit trade by moving it through China—unsurprising, as Pyongyang conducts 85 percent of its total trade with Beijing.

There is hope, however, as C4ADS “finds that the North Korean overseas regime financing and procurement system is centralized, limited, and vulnerable, and thus ripe for disruption” (emphasis in original). With regards to being centralized, the report writes that North Korea’s networks “are comprised of a limited number of commercial facilitators and regime agents, who freely conduct business within the licit commercial system.” One such facilitator is Fan Mintian, a Chinese national whom C4ADS identifies as a key node in North Korea’s network. Fan was in charge of the ship Jie Shun, which was seized in the Suez Canal in 2016 with thirty thousand PG-7 rocket-propelled grenades hidden under over two thousand tons of iron ore. Another of Fan’s companies also worked with Chinpo Shipping, which provided financial assistance to the ship Chong Chon Gang, seized in the Panama Canal while transporting weapons to North Korea from Cuba. Another company Fan owned reportedly operated the ship MV Light, interdicted while transporting missiles to Myanmar.

Nor is Fan an anomaly. According to the report, North Korea continuously uses the same limited number of commercial facilitators. This potentially makes its networks vulnerable to disruption if international authorities are able to apprehend these individuals. The issue, C4ADS notes, is that the UN Security Council has not effectively enforced its sanctions. Indeed, the report suggests that, as in the Fan case, many of North Korea’s facilitators continue to operate even after facing repeated seizures.

Another strategic choke point the report identifies as vulnerable to disruption is North Korea’s reliance on a centralized financing system. Although the facilitators often use shell and front companies to do business with unwitting companies, North Korea cannot purchase anything without access to the international financial system, which entities operating inside North Korea are denied. Instead, Pyongyang has relied on a select number of “gateway firms” that allow “sanctioned North Korean entities to conduct financial transactions that would appear to US and European correspondent banks as coming from companies based in the British Virgin Islands, Seychelles, England, Wales, or Hong Kong.” The U.S. Treasury already acted against one of the biggest gateway firms when it imposed sanctions on the Liaoning Hongxiang Group and its parent company, Dandong Hongxiang Industrial Development Co. Ltd.

A further vulnerability of North Korea’s overseas network is the limited number of companies involved. Overall, only 5,233 Chinese companies did business with North Korea between 2013 and 2016, compared to the 67,163 Chinese companies that export goods to South Korea. Moreover, many of these 5,233 companies are owned by the same parent company, and “a disproportionate share of that trade is centralized among an even smaller number of large-scale trading firms.” In fact, a single company reportedly purchased over 9 percent of North Korea’s total exports to China last year.

The level of detail in C4ADS’s report makes it a valuable resource in the growing body of work of North Korean regime’s economic networks, which also includes the invaluable studies done by the UN Security Council’s panel of experts on the subject. C4ADS’s conclusion—that the centralized and limited nature of North Korea’s overseas networks make them vulnerable to disruption—is true on its face. However, the core issue is not identifying these networks, but enticing China to take meaningful action to disrupt them. And as long as China believes that the collapse of the North Korean regime is worse than living with Kim Jong-un, it’s hard to see that actually happening, no matter how much information about the networks is exposed.

Zachary Keck is the former managing editor of the National Interest. You can find him on Twitter: @ZacharyKeck.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/defense-secretary-mattis-explains-close-170534909.html

Defense Secretary Mattis explains what war with North Korea would look like

Alex Lockie
Business Insider
June 16, 2017

(North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.REUTERS/KCNA)

Asked on Thursday by Rep. Tim Ryan of the House Appropriations Committee to explain why the US doesn't just go to war to stop North Korea from developing the capability to hit the US, Secretary of Defense James Mattis painted a grim scenario.

"I would suggest that we will win," Mattis said. "It will be a war more serious in terms of human suffering than anything we've seen since 1953.

"It will involve the massive shelling of an ally's capital, which is one of the most densely packed cities on earth," Mattis said of Seoul, which boasts a metro-area population of 25 million.

"It would be a war that fundamentally we don't want," Mattis said, but "we would win at great cost."

Mattis explained that because the threat from North Korea loomed so large and a military confrontation would destroy so much, he, President Donald Trump, and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had all made a peaceful solution a top priority.

Mattis said the topic of North Korea dominated Trump's meeting in April with President Xi Jinping of China, North Korea's only ally, and that the US intended to make China understand that "North Korea today is a strategic burden, not a strategic asset."

China argues it has limited influence on Pyongyang, but as one expert explained, Beijing could at any moment cripple North Korea through trade means, forcing it to come to the negotiating table.

Defense_Secretary_Mattis_explains_what-02466322661e935d3e58ace8892e272d

https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/a...xplains_what-02466322661e935d3e58ace8892e272d

Mattis made clear that the US was nearing the end of its rope in dealing with North Korea, saying: "We're exhausting all possible diplomatic efforts in this regard."

North Korea recently taunted Trump by saying it was capable of hitting New York with a nuclear missile, but Mattis said a war today would hurt our Asian allies.

"It would be a serious, a catastrophic war, especially for innocent people in some of our allied countries, to include Japan most likely," Mattis said.

More From Business Insider
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The US military is developing new tactics to dominate the South China Sea
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-accuses-chinese-company-transferring-035931942.html

US accuses Chinese company of transferring NKorean money

JOE McDONALD
Associated Press
June 16, 2017

BEIJING (AP) — China said Friday it doesn't want governments to extend their laws to cover other countries after Washington asked a court to seize $1.9 million from a Chinese company accused of helping North Korea evade financial sanctions.

The U.S. complaint Thursday comes as the administration of President Donald Trump tries to step up pressure on North Korea to give up nuclear weapons development.

The Justice Department accused Mingzheng International Trading Ltd., in the northeastern city of Shenyang, of conducting transactions for North Korea's state-owned Foreign Trade Bank. Their complaint said the bank is barred from the U.S. financial system under sanctions imposed in response to the North's nuclear weapons development.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang said he had no details about the company but said Beijing "has been strictly and precisely implementing" U.N. sanctions.

However, Lu said the Foreign Trade Bank is not on the Security Council sanctions list.

"China opposes any country extending its long-arm jurisdiction over other countries based on so-called domestic law," he said.

Despite sanctions, experts say North Korea uses covert operations to obtain foreign currency and materials that can be used by its weapons program.

Beijing is the North's main source of aid and diplomatic support but has shown growing frustration with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

Chinese officials told U.S. diplomats in May they had tightened inspections and policing along the border with North Korea, according to Acting Assistant Secretary of State Susan Thornton.

Thursday's announcement said Mingzheng International Trading is accused of making transactions in October and November of 2015 on behalf of Foreign Trade Bank.

"Mingzheng acts as a front company for a covert Chinese branch of the Foreign Trade Bank," the announcement said. "This branch is operated by a Chinese national who has historically been tied to the Foreign Trade Bank."

It said the case would represent one of the largest U.S. seizures of North Korean funds. It gave no details of which U.S. financial institutions were used by Mingzheng International Trading.

There is no phone listing in Shenyang for Mingzheng International Trading. People who answered the phone at another company in Shenyang with a somewhat similar name, Mingchang Century Trading Ltd., hung up when asked about the U.S. accusation.

Chinese authorities announced in September they were investigating another company, Hongxiang Industrial Development Co., which foreign researchers said sold the North materials that can be used by its nuclear weapons program. The results have not been announced.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.irishnews.com/news/world...t-its-nuclear-and-missile-programmes-1058502/

North Korea lashes out at international sanctions against its nuclear and missile programmes

Eric Talmadge
16 June, 2017 18:00

NORTH Korea has lashed out at international sanctions against its nuclear and missile programmes, saying they are being used to block everything from frozen chicken to swimming flippers.

In an unusually detailed and lengthy statement, the Foreign Ministry stuck by its long-standing claim that the country has the right to develop nuclear weapons to defend itself against the US, which it said under president Donald Trump is openly trying to "suffocate" its economy.

It added that if testing or possessing nuclear weapons are sanctioned, then the US and other nuclear superpowers should be subject to sanctions as well.

The statement included a long list of non-military-use items it says have been impacted by the trade bans, including frozen chicken, diving flippers for a dolphin show, and an array of sports equipment including skis, yachts, mountaineering boots, snowmobiles, snow groomers, billiard tables, archery equipment and sporting guns.

"Archery equipment would never become ballistic rockets and sports rifles could never be used to launch nuclear warheads, but some countries either being overpowered by or blindly following the high-handed practices of the hostile forces are bringing disgrace to the ideal and purpose of sports," the statement said.

It said public health and humanitarian assistance have been affected as well.

The statement directly criticised efforts by Mr Trump to tighten pressure on Pyongyang, saying Washington and its supporters are trying to "completely suffocate" the country's economy and "impoverish the people's livelihood".

North Korea has been concerned by the Trump administration and the possibility of tougher policies than those carried out by his predecessor, Barack Obama.

Following a series of high-profile North Korean missile tests, the US earlier this month led an effort at the UN to pass a resolution adding more individuals and entities linked to nuclear and missile programmes to a sanctions blacklist.

The resolution expressed serious concern that North Korea continues to violate previous UN resolutions with launches and attempted launches of ballistic missiles, and that its nuclear and missile activities threaten international peace and security.

The Security Council has repeatedly demanded that North Korea abandon all nuclear weapons programmes and halt all nuclear and missile tests.

The Security Council had already imposed six rounds of sanctions on North Korea.


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Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-diplomats-idUSKBN1990NV

WORLD NEWS | Sun Jun 18, 2017 | 10:20am EDT

North Korea accuses U.S. authorities of 'mugging' its diplomats at NY airport

North Korea accused U.S. authorities on Sunday of "mugging" its diplomats at the John F. Kennedy airport in New York, forcibly confiscating a diplomatic package which it said raised questions about the city as the seat of the United Nations.

The North's Foreign Ministry spokesman said a delegation of the North returning from a U.N. conference on the rights of persons with disabilities "was literally mugged" at the John F. Kennedy airport in "an illegal and heinous act of provocation."

"Diplomats of a sovereign state are being robbed of a diplomatic package in the middle of New York where the headquarters of the United Nations is located and that serves as the venue for international meetings including the United Nations General Assembly," the spokesman said.

"This clearly shows that the U.S. is a felonious and lawless gangster state," the spokesman said in comments carried by the North's official KCNA news agency.

"The international community needs to seriously reconsider whether or not New York, where such an outrageous mugging is rampant, is fit to serve as the venue for international meetings," KCNA said.

The State Department and White House had no immediate comment on the North Korean statement.

KCNA said the incident took place on June 16 when more than 20 officials who claimed to be from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and police "made a violent assault like gangsters to take away the diplomatic package from the diplomats."

The diplomats were in possession of a valid diplomatic courier certificate, KCNA said.

The claim comes amid diplomatic tensions after the North released American student Otto Warmbier whose parents said he was in a coma after being held by the North for 17 months.

Warmbier, 22, who arrived in the United States on Tuesday, is stable but "shows no sign of understanding language, responding to verbal commands or awareness of his surrounding," a doctor at the University of Cincinnati Medical Center said.

The U.N. Security Council has imposed sanctions against North Korea for the reclusive state's nuclear and ballistic missile activities.

The North, which is a member state of the United Nations, has rejected the resolutions as infringements of its right to self defense and space exploration.

(Reporting by Jack Kim; Editing by Phil Berlowitz)
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
I don't know if NK related or not, but, probably is in one way or another, even if it turns out to be just an exercise.

Christopher Wilson‏ @CWilson_2011 2h2 hours ago

@StratSentinel @CivMilAir @planesonthenet @IntelCrab @TheWarMonitor There is an active hold on inbound planes at Osan NK via Osan ATC


Christopher Wilson‏ @CWilson_2011 2h2 hours ago

All for a priority take off


Strat 2 Intel‏ @Strat2Intel
Replying to @CWilson_2011 @StratSentinel and

I'm also hearing callsigns I believe are used for an F-16 unit based in Japan. Sounds like a number arriving. TOJO.
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
The Intel Crab Retweeted
Aircraft Spots‏ @aircraftspots 5m5 minutes ago

?? US Air Force Special Ops
C-146A 16-3020 MAGMA01 - Tracking over South Korea headed westbound ?
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
Well, a few of us have said for years that they have been doing this among other things (nuke testing, etc). NO surprise.



mostafa.mohamadi‏ @MostafaMe4 6m6 minutes ago

#NorthKorea helps #Iran accelerate ballistic missile buildup, testing #DPRK #IRGC #FreeIran #NCRI http://go.shr.lc/2sNCnkj - @washtimes



posted for fair use and discussion
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jun/20/north-korea-helps-iran-accelerate-ballistic-missil/

Iran gets North Korean expertise in building up, testing and hiding its ballistic missiles
By Rowan Scarborough - The Washington Times - Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Iran has increased production and testing of ballistic missiles since the 2015 nuclear deal with the U.S. while playing permanent host to scientists from North Korea, which has the know-how to build and launch atomic weapons, a leading Iranian opposition group said Tuesday.

The National Council of Resistance of Iran issued a white paper that the dissidents say identifies and documents work at 42 missile centers operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the regime’s dominant security force.

A dozen sites had never been disclosed before, said the council, which operates a spy network that has exposed Iran’s hidden nuclear program.

Tehran views expertise from North Korea as being so critical that it has established residences in Tehran for Pyongyang’s scientists and technicians, according to the white paper. North Koreans have shown Iran how to dig tunnels and build “missile cities” deep inside mountains to prevent destruction by airstrikes, among other projects.

“On the basis of specific intelligence, the IRGC’s missile sites have been created based on North Korean models and blueprints,” the white paper said. “North Korean experts have helped the Iranian regime to build them. Underground facilities and tunnels to produce, store, and maintain missiles have also been modeled after North Korean sites and were created with the collaboration of the North Korean experts.”

Iranians also are traveling to North Korea, which uses occasional missile test-firings to rattle its neighbors South Korea and Japan, two strong U.S. allies.

“In the context of these trainings and relations, delegations of the IRGC’s aerospace constantly travel to North Korea and exchange knowledge, information and achievements with North Korean specialists,” the report said. “North Korea’s experts constantly travel to Iran while the IRGC’s missile experts visit North Korea.”


President Trump has been harshly critical of the 2015 deal struck by the Obama administration and five international allies to lift economic sanctions and other financial penalties in exchange for curbs on Iran’s nuclear weapons programs, but has said he will stick with the accord for now while closely monitoring Tehran’s adherence to the deal.

Iran’s leaders say they have yet to see all the benefits promised with the lifting of sanctions.

But even supporters of the Obama deal say there has been little sign that Iran’s Islamic republic has moderated its behavior on other fronts, including the series of ballistic missile tests in recent months that some argue violate U.N. sanctions. U.S. officials also say Iran continues to back terror groups and foment instability in regional hot spots such as Syria and Yemen.

At a press conference Tuesday, Alireza Jafarzadeh, the council’s deputy director in Washington, displayed satellite photos that he said clearly show trademark North Korean mountain entrances to “cities” that hold hundreds of missiles.

He said the regime reorganized the IRGC Aerospace Force to focus almost exclusively on missile production and testing rather than aircraft.

“It’s not by accident,” Mr. Jafarzadeh said. “It’s part of their overall strategy.”

He said a huge missile arsenal allows the ruling Shiite mullahs to intimidate Sunni Muslim neighbors such as rival Saudi Arabia. In addition, missiles provide a delivery system for the nuclear weapons that the regime plans to build once the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, expires in less than 10 years.

“We’re racing against the clock,” he said.

The National Council of Resistance of Iran held a press conference in Washington in April to present evidence that Tehran’s harsh Islamic regime is cheating on the nuclear deal by continuing secret work on atomic bomb components. The Trump administration recently certified that the Islamic republic is living up to its obligations in the deal, which restricts Tehran’s production of only nuclear material, not missiles.

The council’s report pays close attention to the Semnan missile center, a complex of storage facilities and launching pads for medium-range ballistic missiles in north-central Iran. It is here, the white paper says, that Iran melds missile work with nuclear research conducted by the Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research, known by the Persian acronym SPND.

The council first disclosed SPND’s existence in 2011. In 2014, the Obama administration imposed sanctions on SPND for conducting illicit work not allowed at by the pending nuclear deal.

“The Semnan center for missile projects has been much more active after the JCPOA,” a council official said. “The speed and scope of activities and research in Semnan has increased significantly in this period and the exchanges and traffic between SPND.”

Iran has flouted U.N. resolutions repeatedly by test-firing ballistic missiles. In February, the nonprofit Foundation for Defense of Democracies put the number at 14 since the nuclear deal was signed in July 2015. Since then, Iran has conducted at least two more tests.

On Sunday, Iran for the first time since 2001 fired an operational missile outside its boundaries, targeting an Islamic State-controlled town in eastern Syria. Tehran said the ground-to-ground missile strike was retaliation for the Islamic State’s June 7 terrorist attack on the Iranian parliament. In 2001, the regime fired missiles on resistance targets in Iraq.

Iran owns one of the world’s largest inventories of ballistic missiles. GlobalSecurity.org lists more than a dozen different short- and medium-range Iranian missiles, some of which closely resemble North Korea’s Nodong arsenal.

Tehran this year announced the launch of the Emad, which has a range of 1,000 miles. It said the test marked a first for an Iranian precision-guided ballistic missile.

More than ever, the resistance council said, Iran’s religious leaders see missiles as instrumental to their survival strategy.

“The Iranian regime has remained in power in Iran by relying on two pillars: internal repression and external export of Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism,” the council said. “Its illicit nuclear weapons program and its continued expansion of ballistic missiles serve its policy of export of Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism.”
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
Ville Kostian‏ @Kostian_V 10m10 minutes ago

"#Japan missile defense drill aims to ease concern over North Korean threat" - #DPRK
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
WION‏Verified account @WIONews 3h3 hours ago

#Exclusive interview Tonight 8 PM IST with #Ambassador Kye Cheun-yong - #NorthKorea. #DPRK is willing to talk to US anytime, anywhere. #WION


Ville Kostian‏ @Kostian_V 3h3 hours ago

"US-#China to meet as ‘activity detected’ at North #Korea #nuclear test site" - #DPRK

^^^^ this tweet had an image link to an article about the activity in that "can't be linked or posted from" UK paper if anyone wants to check it out
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
As I've mentioned before, if anything is "done" just before or after a "test" its an all or nothing kind of situation. In theory, a full "blitz" of the artillery positions opposite/in range of Seoul could be done with the available aircraft and JDAMs but that still leaves further out and road mobile ballistic missiles with potentially WMDs being lobbed all over the place, and they've got more of those available than Seoul or Tokyo has PAC or THAAD on tap to intercept them.

With the table stakes it really becomes an all or nothing situation.

The problem with kicking the can further down the road being that there isn't much road left.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....
For links see article source.....
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/north-koreas-real-strategy/

North Korea’s real strategy

21 Jun 2017|Christopher R. Hill

North Korea’s quest for nuclear weapons is often depicted as a ‘rational’ response to its strategic imperatives of national security and regime survival. After all, the country is surrounded by larger, supposedly hostile states, and it has no allies on which it can rely to come to its defense. It is only logical, on this view, that Kim Jong-un wants to avoid the mistake made by Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Muammar el-Qaddafi, both of whom would still be alive and in power had they acquired deliverable nuclear weapons.

In fact, North Korea’s appetite for nuclear weapons is rooted more in aggression than pragmatism. North Korea seeks nothing less than to decouple the United States from its South Korean partner—a split that would enable the reunification of the Korean Peninsula on Kim’s terms. In other words, North Korea does not want only to defend itself; it wants to set the stage for an invasion of its own.

Of course, such a scenario is, in many ways, the stuff of fancy. But to be a North Korean today is not necessarily to accept the world as it is. And North Korean propaganda continues to reiterate the view that the Korean Peninsula consists of one people, sharing one language and one culture, indivisible—except by outsiders like the US. By this logic, the North needs to find a way to discourage those outsiders from intervening in the peninsula’s affairs.

As it stands, the US-South Korea relationship operates on the basis of something like the North Atlantic Treaty’s collective-defense clause, Article 5: any North Korean aggression against South Korea will, it is assured, be met by the combined forces of South Korea and the US. Such a counterattack would be decisive, ensuring the total destruction of the North Korean regime.

If North Korea had long-range nuclear weapons, however, it might be able to change the strategic calculus, by threatening to launch a nuclear attack on the US mainland in response to US intervention on the Korean Peninsula. The US might intervene anyway, launching its own devastating attack on North Korea. But it might also choose not to risk casualties on its own soil.

If the US did shirk its collective-defense responsibilities, South Korea would still have plenty of recourse against its northern neighbor. After all, South Korea’s conventional forces are far better trained, equipped, and motivated than their North Korean counterparts. But it is hard to say whether the North Koreans know that. Like many dictatorships before them, they may be the first to believe their own propaganda—in this case, that they can succeed against a South Korean foe that is not buttressed by American military might.

In any case, North Korea—which has invested heavily in forward deployed special forces and other asymmetrical elements of contemporary warfare—seems to be gearing up for an offensive, if only it can get the US out of the way. Against this background, efforts to bring the Kim regime back to the negotiating table—spearheaded largely by China—are misguided.

Such efforts aim to persuade North Koreans to freeze all missile and nuclear tests, in exchange for a scale-down and delay of annual joint exercises by US and South Korean forces. Advocates of this so-called ‘freeze for freeze’ approach say that such a tradeoff is only fair: the North cannot be expected to suspend its efforts to strengthen its defensive capabilities if the US and South Korea are pursuing supposedly hostile military cooperation in its near-abroad.

But this argument has it backward. In fact, it is the North whose activities are inherently hostile, and the South, along with the US, that is focused on defense. Indeed, planning for the annual US-South Korea spring exercises is always based on the premise that North Korea has invaded the South, not vice versa. North Korea knows this well.

But North Korea also knows that, without joint exercises, a military alliance becomes weak and hollow. In 1939, for example, when Germany invaded Poland, the British and French, per their treaty with Poland, declared war on Germany. But, in reality, they did little to protect Poland, which Germany subjugated rather quickly. If the US suspends joint military exercises with South Korea, its willingness or ability to respond to North Korean aggression in the South may become similarly weak.

This scenario is all the more dangerous, given the possibility that the suspension of missile and nuclear tests may not actually lead to a concomitant weakening of North Korea’s nuclear program. Testing is only a small element of a weapons program—and not necessarily an essential one. There is no sign that the North Koreans would actually end research and development of nuclear weapons.

In fact, the idea that North Korea will abandon its weapons programs in exchange for the promise of security and regime survival has been tested has failed whenever it has been tested. In September 2005, five world powers, including the US, offered North Korea an unimpeded civilian nuclear program, energy assistance, economic aid, and diplomatic recognition, as well as a promise to establish a regional mechanism for maintaining peace and security in Northeast Asia. A US commitment not to attack North Korea with conventional or nuclear weapons was also included in the deal.

All North Korea had to do to secure these benefits was abandon its nuclear-weapons programs and accede to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. But the North was not willing to allow for a credible verification protocol. Instead, it attempted to limit verification to that which was already known. In the end, it walked away from the agreement, rather than work to find an acceptable way forward.

A stronger and more purposeful US-China dialogue on North Korea is essential to resolving what is emerging as the world’s most urgent security problem. But the discussion should focus on direct measures to impede and undermine the country’s inherently aggressive nuclear program—not to offer more concessions that will only strengthen a rogue regime’s hand.

Author
Christopher R. Hill, former US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia, is Dean of the Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, and the author of Outpost. This article is presented in partnership with Project Syndicate © 2017.*Image courtesy of Flickr user (stephan).
 

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
As I've mentioned before, if anything is "done" just before or after a "test" its an all or nothing kind of situation. In theory, a full "blitz" of the artillery positions opposite/in range of Seoul could be done with the available aircraft and JDAMs but that still leaves further out and road mobile ballistic missiles with potentially WMDs being lobbed all over the place, and they've got more of those available than Seoul or Tokyo has PAC or THAAD on tap to intercept them.

With the table stakes it really becomes an all or nothing situation.

The problem with kicking the can further down the road being that there isn't much road left.

the other issue is that each time we kick it down the road, Kim adds another 500 projectiles, 200 launchers, and upgrades another 500 of the older launchers and projectiles (numbers for illustration only). SO even as the time grows shorter, he keeps making it more difficult to preserve the South if we need to do some remedial education.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
the other issue is that each time we kick it down the road, Kim adds another 500 projectiles, 200 launchers, and upgrades another 500 of the older launchers and projectiles (numbers for illustration only). SO even as the time grows shorter, he keeps making it more difficult to preserve the South if we need to do some remedial education.

Exactly.

Makes me wonder what kind of a time tables and guestimates the OPLANs for the RoKA "going north" look like from a "cold start".
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Sure has been a lot of sleep lost over a flea on China's back.

Remember, not only can the NORKs "reach" Seoul and Tokyo, if they really go off the rails, they can reach Beijing and a good chunk of the PRC's population and industrial base.

Heck, you "pop" a minimum 15 Kt weapon in the nearest PRC ports to North Korea and the economic shock to the PRC's economy would probably be enough to blow the lid off the place.

170213_north_korea.jpg

http://cdn1.theweek.co.uk/sites/theweek/files/2017/02/170213_north_korea.jpg

So yeah it's a flea, but one infected with the plague.
 

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
Exactly.

Makes me wonder what kind of a time tables and guestimates the OPLANs for the RoKA "going north" look like from a "cold start".

A cold start gets the old SPECOPS lecture about the mission includes entry, completion of the objective.

"Wait, what? Don't we get to come back out?"

"NOT a requirement of the op. If you have a problem with that math, mebbe y'all need a new line of work."


Cold start against NK is pretty much a suicide charge, and just HOPES to chop up enough of NK's mountain cave arty before half of SK is in flames.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
A cold start gets the old SPECOPS lecture about the mission includes entry, completion of the objective.

"Wait, what? Don't we get to come back out?"

"NOT a requirement of the op. If you have a problem with that math, mebbe y'all need a new line of work."


Cold start against NK is pretty much a suicide charge, and just HOPES to chop up enough of NK's mountain cave arty before half of SK is in flames.

Yeah, too true, but at the same time spending two weeks lining up to go North only invites the North who are already in a defensive posture to call down hell upon such an assembly.
 

China Connection

TB Fanatic
The U.S.used to plan to fight the North Koreans from the bottom of South Korea up the peninsula. In other words, North Korea will have overrun South Korea.


It only takes about 12 hours to drive from North Korea to the bottom of South Korea.


When I first went to South Korea the South Korean Miltary estimated it would take 8 days for North Korea to overrun the South.
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
posted for fair use and discussion

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/06/21/0200000000AEN20170621016000320.html


N. Korea is open to moratorium on nuclear, missile tests: report


2017/06/21 22:40



NEW DELHI, June 21 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's top envoy to India on Wednesday offered a conditional moratorium on his country's nuclear and missile tests in an apparent bid to hold talks with the United States.

North Korea Ambassador to India Kye Chun-yong said Pyongyang is willing to talk in terms of freezing its nuclear and missile tests under certain circumstances.

"If our demands is met, we can negotiate in terms of the moratorium of such as weapons testing," Kye said in English in an interview posted on the website of India's television station WION.

He suggested that one of the key demands is the halt of the U.S. joint military drills with South Korea, which Pyongyang denounced as a rehearsal for invasion. Seoul and Washington say their annual exercises are defensive in nature.

South Korea's new President Moon Jae-in said Seoul has no plans to scale back joint military exercises with Washington, according to an interview with U.S. broadcaster CBS.

Moon has dismissed as personal views his adviser's recent remarks in Washington that South Korea and the U.S. may consider scaling back their joint military exercises in exchange for North Korea freezing its nuclear and missile development programs.

The U.S. keeps some 28,500 troops in South Korea as a deterrent against North Korea, a legacy of the 1950-53 Korean War that ended in a cease-fire, not a peace treaty.

In February 2012, North Korea agreed to temporarily put a moratorium on missile and nuclear tests and freeze its uranium-enrichment facilities in exchange for 240,000 tons of food aid from the U.S.

But the deal unraveled two months later as North Korea launched what it claims was a rocket to put a satellite into orbit. The rocket exploded soon after liftoff.

North Korea has carried out five nuclear tests and dozens of missile tests as it seeks to develop a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting the U.S.

Despite sanctions and pressure, North Korea has repeatedly vowed to further develop its missile and nuclear weapons program, viewing it as a deterrent against what it claims is Washington's hostile policy against it.

(END)
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
Nathan J Hunt‏ @ISNJH 14m14 minutes ago

DPRK envoy to India say's country open to conditional moratorium on nuke and missile testing. Via Yonhap


Nathan J Hunt‏ @ISNJH 10m10 minutes ago

DPRK says could go for conditional moratorium on nuke and missile tests, but would new moratorium also cover SLV launches..



Nathan J Hunt‏ @ISNJH 5m5 minutes ago

its unlikely that DPRK would also go for freeze on SLV launches having spent so much time constructing new support and C&C for program.
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
Steve Herman‏Verified account @W7VOA 35m35 minutes ago

Special @StateDept rep for #DPRK to testify before Senate Foreign Relations Comm. in wake of Warmbier death. https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/north-korea-recent-developments-062217


https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/north-korea-recent-developments-062217

CLOSED/TS/SCI: North Korea: Recent Developments

Date: Thursday, June 22, 2017
Add to Calendar Add to my Calendar
Time: 11:00 AM Location: SVC-217 Presiding: Senator Corker
Briefer


The Honorable Joseph Y. Yun
Special Representative for North Korea Policy, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Korea and Japan; Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs
U.S. Department of State
Washington , D.C.
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
38 North‏ @38NorthNK 5m5 minutes ago

U.S., China meet on North Korea after Trump points to failed Chinese effort


posted for fair use and discussion
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-talks-idUSKBN19C1R3

Wed Jun 21, 2017 | 9:28am EDT

U.S., China meet on North Korea after Trump points to failed Chinese effort

U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defense Secretary James Mattis meet with Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi and General Fang Fenghui, chief of the People's Liberation Army's Joint Staff Department prior to the U.S.-China Diplomatic and Security Dialogue at the State Department in Washington, U.S., June 21, 2017. REUTERS/Aaron P. Bernstein
By David Brunnstrom | WASHINGTON

Top diplomats and defense chiefs from the United States and China began a day of talks in Washington on Wednesday looking for ways to press North Korea to give up its nuclear and missile programs.

The talks come a day after U.S. President Donald Trump said Chinese efforts to persuade North Korea to rein in its weapons programs had failed, ratcheting up the rhetoric after the death of an American student who had been detained by Pyongyang.

Trump's statement is likely to increase pressure on Beijing at the Diplomatic and Security Dialogue, which pairs U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis with China's top diplomat, State Councilor Yang Jiechi, and General Fang Fenghui, chief of joint staff of the People's Liberation Army.

The State Department says Wednesday's talks would focus on ways to increase pressure on North Korea, but also cover such areas as counter-terrorism and territorial rivalries in the South China Sea.

The U.S. side is expected to press China to cooperate on a further toughening of international sanctions on North Korea. The United States and its allies would like to see an oil embargo and bans on the North Korean airline and guest workers among other moves, steps diplomats say have been resisted by China and Russia.

Trump has had high hopes for greater cooperation from China to exert influence over North Korea, leaning heavily on Chinese President Xi Jinping for his assistance. The two leaders had a high-profile summit in Florida in April and Trump has frequently praised Xi while resisting criticizing Chinese trade practices.

"While I greatly appreciate the efforts of President Xi & China to help with North Korea, it has not worked out. At least I know China tried!" Trump wrote on Twitter.

It was unclear whether his remark represented a significant shift in his thinking in the U.S. effort to stop North Korea's nuclear program and its test-launching of missiles or a hardening in U.S. policy toward China.

China's Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday that Beijing had made "unremitting efforts" to resolve tensions on the Korean peninsula.
Also In World News

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On Tuesday, a U.S. official said U.S. spy satellites had detected movements recently at North Korea's nuclear test site near a tunnel entrance, but it was unclear if Pyongyang was preparing for a new nuclear test, perhaps to coincide with Wednesday's high-level talks.

A South Korean Defense Ministry official said North Korea remained prepared to conduct a sixth nuclear test at any time but there were "no new unusual indications that can be shared.”

North Korea last tested a nuclear bomb in September, but it has conducted repeated missile tests since and vowed to develop a nuclear-tipped missile capable of hitting the U.S. mainland, putting it at the forefront of Trump's security worries.

(Additional reporting by Steve Holland in Washington and Michael Martina in Beijing; Editing by Jeffrey Benkoe)
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
The Intel Crab‏ @IntelCrab 4m4 minutes ago

#China Cancels Military Meeting With #Vietnam Over Territorial Dispute.



The Intel Crab‏ @IntelCrab 25m25 minutes ago

The Intel Crab Retweeted Pamela Falk

Pending joint statement?


The Intel Crab added,
Pamela FalkVerified account @PamelaFalk
#Alert Senior U.S. China officials meet in Washington, D.C. on North Korea's accelerated buildup http://on.cfr.org/2rRpPEj via @CFR_org
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
Pamela Falk‏Verified account @PamelaFalk 13m13 minutes ago

Pamela Falk Retweeted Yonhap News Agency

#SouthKorea FM Kyung-wha Kang, former @UN on prisoners in #DPRK @CBSNews

Pamela Falk added,
Yonhap News Agency @YonhapNews
U.S. will help release S. Korean prisoners in N. Korea as well: envoy http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/06/21/0200000000AEN20170621014800315.html



posted for fair use and discussion
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/06/21/0200000000AEN20170621014800315.html


U.S. will help release S. Korean prisoners in N. Korea as well: envoy


2017/06/21 17:08


SEOUL, June 21 (Yonhap) -- The United States will do its best to help South Korea win the release of its citizens detained in North Korea, the acting U.S. ambassador to Seoul said Wednesday in a meeting with the host country's new foreign minister.

"We will do our best to facilitate the return of South Korean prisoners as well," Charge d'Affaires Marc Kannper told Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha during their first official talks since she took office earlier this week. The chief commander of United States Forces Korea Gen. Vincent Brooks also joined the meeting.

The acting ambassador said the U.S. will do its best to free American as well as South Korean detainees in the North, referring to three U.S. citizens and six South Korean nationals held by Pyongyang.

Knapper also conveyed U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's congratulations on Kang's inauguration, saying that "he is looking forward as well to hearing your voice, but also seeing you in person in Washington."

The two countries are currently arranging the first phone conversation as well as face-to-face talks between Kang and Tillerson.

Kang reaffirmed the strong alliance between the countries, telling Brooks that "we greatly depend on your voice and support ... to ensure that the alliance is strong and becomes even stronger."

The alliance is "the foundation of our foreign and security policy and I will ensure you I will do my very vest to make sure that the alliance is on solid footing," she stressed.

pbr@yna.co.kr

(END)
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
gee, ya think? All he would do would be continue on with stuff secretly and then unleash on us.


posted for fair use and discussion
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2017/06/22/50/0401000000AEN20170622005000315F.html


S. Korea cautious about assessing N.K.'s offer for moratorium on nuke tests


2017/06/22 11:50


SEOUL, June 22 (Yonhap) -- South Korea on Thursday cast caution over reading too much into a North Korean envoy's remarks proposing a conditional moratorium on the North's nuclear and missile tests.

North Korea's top envoy to India Kye Chun-yong said Wednesday that North Korea can place a moratorium on its nuclear and missile tests if the U.S. suspends its annual joint military drills with South Korea.

It marked the first time that the North raised the possibility of the conditional suspension of its nuclear and missile provocations since liberal President Moon Jae-in took office in May.

South Korea's unification ministry expressed prudence about giving its assessment over Kye's remark, saying that North Korea made a similar proposal in January 2015.

On Jan. 10, 2015, North Korea proposed that it would temporarily suspend its nuclear testing if the U.S. halted its joint military exercises with the South that year.

"North Korea made a similar offer in 2015. We will closely watch the situation," said a ministry official. "I think that North Korea is seen as giving its views in various manners as the outside world is talking about its nuclear weapons program."

Kye's remark came as Moon said in a recent interview with CBS that South Korea has no plans to scale back joint military exercises between Seoul and Washington.

The president's comment came after his special security adviser Moon Chung-in told a forum in Washington that Seoul and Washington may consider scaling back their joint military drills in exchange for North Korea freezing its nuclear and missile programs.

Pyongyang has long denounced the joint military drills between South Korea and the U.S. as a rehearsal for a northern invasion despite Seoul and Washington's assurance that they are defensive in nature.

Meanwhile, the ministry official said that reported new activity at North Korea's underground nuclear test site does not seem to be related to signs of an additional nuclear test by the North.

Citing two U.S. officials, CNN reported Tuesday that U.S. spy satellites have detected new activity at North Korea's nuclear test site on its northeastern region for the first time in several weeks.

"It does not appear to be directly related to (signs of) another North Korea nuke test," the official added. "But North Korea seems to be ready to conduct an additional nuke test at any time."

sooyeon@yna.co.kr

(END)
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
posted for fair use and discussion
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2017/06/22/39/0401000000AEN20170622000351315F.html

(LEAD) U.S., China agree companies shouldn't do business with blacklisted N.K. entities

2017/06/22 05:07

(ATTN: UPDATES throughout with remarks by Tillerson, Mattis)

By Chang Jae-soon

WASHINGTON, June 21 (Yonhap) -- The United States and China agreed Wednesday that companies of the two countries should not do business with U.N.-blacklisted North Korean entities, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said as he urged Beijing to exert "much greater pressure" on Pyongyang.

Tillerson made the remark after the inaugural U.S.-China Diplomatic and Security Dialogue that brought together the countries' top diplomats and defense chiefs. Tillerson and Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis hosted Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi and Gen. Fang Fenghui, chief of the People's Liberation Army's Joint Staff.

North Korea was a top issue at the talks.

"The most acute threat in the region today is posed by the DPRK. We both call for complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and we call on the DPRK to halt its illegal nuclear weapons program and its ballistic missile tests as stipulated in the U.N. Security Council resolutions," Tillerson said.

"We reaffirmed our commitment to implement in full all relevant U.N. Security Council resolutions. For example, we both agreed that our companies should not do business with any U.N.-designated North Korean entities in accordance with these resolutions," he said.

The talks came a day after U.S. President Donald Trump said Chinese pressure hasn't worked.

In a Tweet, Trump said, "While I greatly appreciate the efforts of President Xi & China to help with North Korea, it has not worked out. At least I know China tried!"

Tillerson said he made clear to China that the U.S. "regards North Korea as our top security threat" and Beijing has a "diplomatic responsibility to exert much greater economic and diplomatic pressure on the regime if they want to prevent further escalation in the region."

Tillerson also said that Pyongyang has engaged in a number of "criminal enterprises" to earn hard currency for its nuclear and missile programs, such as money laundering, extorting North Korean laborers and malicious cyber activities.

"We must step up our efforts to help to curtail these sources of revenue. Countries around the world and the U.N. Security Council are joining in this effort and we hope China will do their part as well," Tillerson said.

"The United States remains committed to holding North Korea accountable for multiple violations of U.N. Security Council resolutions which expressly prohibit its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile program," he said.

Mattis also said the two sides agreed to work together for a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula

"We reaffirmed North Korea's nuclear missile program is a threat to peace and security in Asia-Pacific region. We also affirmed our strong commitment to cooperate, including through the U.N., to realize our shared goal of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," he said.

Wednesday's talks came amid rising calls for tougher sanctions on the North after American college student Otto Warmbier died just days after he was released from North Korea in a coma following 17 months of detention for taking down a political propaganda sign from a hotel.

Trump has condemned the "brutality" of the North Korean regime.

Mattis said Warmbier's death goes "beyond any understanding."

"We see a young man go over there healthy and with a minor act of mischief come home dead, basically -- dies immediately after he gets here. There is no way that we can look at a situation like this with any kind of understanding," Mattis said.

"This goes beyond any kind of understanding of law and order, of humanity, of responsibility towards any human being. So what you're seeing is, I think, the American people's frustration with a regime that provokes, provokes and provokes, and basically plays outside the rules, plays fast and loose with the truth, that sort of thing," he said.

jschang@yna.co.kr

(END)
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
Strat 2 Intel Retweeted
U.S. Pacific Command‏Verified account @PacificCommand 9h9 hours ago

USS #Nimitz #CarrierStrikeGroup arrives in @US7thFleet on her 2017 deployment as #Vinson makes her way home
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
Northern Watch put this info on the wrong thread so adding it here.
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...orea-April-27th-May-4th&p=6506490#post6506490


Today 02:47 PM #448
northern watch


Lucas Tomlinson‏Verified account @LucasFoxNews · 31m31 minutes ago

BREAKING: North Korea conducts another rocket engine test for potential use on intercontinental ballistic missile or ICBM, US officials say


Today 03:01 PM #449
northern watch


Lucas Tomlinson‏Verified account @LucasFoxNews · 5h5 hours ago

After USS Fitzgerald collision with cargo ship, US military has one less ballistic missile defense ship for North Korea missile guard duty
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
So this happened yesterday or possibly even Tues night if they mean Wednesday NK time.

posted for fair use and discussion (news clip at link)

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/0...et-engine-test-for-icbm-us-officials-say.html


North Korea conducts another rocket engine test for ICBM, US officials say

By Lucas Tomlinson
Published June 22, 2017
Fox News

Now Playing

US pressures China to run interference with North Korea

North Korea conducted another rocket engine test Wednesday which could potentially be used on a future intercontinental ballistic missile or ICBM, two US officials tell Fox News.


It’s the first rocket engine test since the rogue communist regime conducted three in March, which, in addition to an ICBM could also be used for a future new rocket capable of putting a satellite into orbit, according to both officials who are concerned that the technology used for putting satellites into space are the same ones used for an ICBM capable of reaching the west coast of the United States.

The rocket test was conducted in the city of Yun Song, where previous rocket tests have taken place, according to one official
.

The news of another rocket engine test out of North Korea comes as another U.S. official said Wednesday there are signs of increased activity at North Korea’s lone nuclear test site.

“There are more people and more cars but nobody knows what that means,” said the official.

North Korea has conducted five nuclear tests since 2006, including two last year.

Since hosting China’s President Xi Jinping at his Mar-a-Lago Club in April, President Trump hoped China would help deescalate tensions in the region following a series of ballistic missile tests, including one that flew 1,000 miles higher than NASA’s international space station before reentering the Earth’s atmosphere and splashing down a mere 60 miles from Russia last month.
Related Image
FILE - In this April 6, 2017 file photo, Chinese President Xi Jinping, left, smiles at U.S. President Donald Trump as they pose together with their wives for photographers before dinner at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla. China will finally open its borders to U.S. beef while cooked Chinese poultry is closer to hitting the American market as part of a U.S.-China trade agreement. Trump administration officials hailed the deal as a significant step in their efforts to boost U.S. exports and even America's trade gap with the world's second-largest economy. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File) Expand / Collapse

FILE - In this April 6, 2017 file photo, Chinese President Xi Jinping, left, smiles at U.S. President Donald Trump as they pose together with their wives for photographers before dinner at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)

“While I greatly appreciate the efforts of President Xi & China to help with North Korea, it has not worked out. At least I know China tried!” said Trump in a tweet earlier this week.

At the State Department, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis hosted Chinese counterparts.

“China understands that the United States regards North Korea as our top security threat,” Tillerson told reporters Wednesday. “We reiterated to China that they have a diplomatic responsibility to exert much great economic and diplomatic pressure on the regime if they want to prevent further escalation in the region.”
Related Image
FILE - In this March 16, 2016, file photo, American student Otto Warmbier, center, is escorted at the Supreme Court in Pyongyang, North Korea. Warmbier, whose parents say has been in a coma while serving a 15-year prison term in North Korea, was released and returned to the United States Tuesday, June 13, 2017, as the Trump administration revealed a rare exchange with the reclusive country. (AP Photo/Jon Chol Jin, File) Expand / Collapse

FILE - In this March 16, 2016, file photo, American student Otto Warmbier, center, is escorted at the Supreme Court in Pyongyang, North Korea. (AP Photo/Jon Chol Jin, File)

U.S. TEST TO SHOOT DOWN BALLISTIC MISSILE FAILS

Relations with North Korea deteriorated further after Otto Warmbier, the 22-year-old University of Virginia student and Ohio native was returned to the United States last week after being held for 17-months on charges of subversion after allegedly stealing a communist propaganda poster from his hotel.

Warmbier died on Monday. Friends and family members held a public funeral in Wyoming, Ohio, on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the latest U.S. effort to test its shoot-down capability failed on Wednesday night, according to a statement from the U.S. Missile Defense Agency. A medium-range ballistic missile was launched from a test range in Hawaii at 7:20 pm local time, but the interceptor missile fired at sea from USS John Paul Jones, a guided-missile destroyer, missed the target.

Fox News' James Rosen contributed to this report.

Lucas Tomlinson is the Pentagon and State Department producer for Fox News Channel. You can follow him on Twitter: @LucasFoxNews
 

Lilbitsnana

On TB every waking moment
Steve Herman‏Verified account @W7VOA 3h3 hours ago

Steve Herman Retweeted Steve Herman

US officials believe #DPRK test could've been for smallest of the three stages of ICBM-type rocket engine, reports @Reuters.
 

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
A Dornier 328 full of USAF special ops troops. Interesting.
That's not an exercise.

Sounds like they're taking a day trip that will end up north of the Z.

The Intel Crab Retweeted
Aircraft Spots‏ @aircraftspots 5m5 minutes ago

?? US Air Force Special Ops
C-146A 16-3020 MAGMA01 - Tracking over South Korea headed westbound ?
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....
For links see article source.....
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...-s-test-missile-interceptor-off-hawaii-fails/

NATIONAL

Japan-U.S. test of missile interceptor fails off Hawaii as North Korea ICBM fears grow

AP, REUTERS, JIJI, KYODO
JUN 23, 2017

HONOLULU, SEOUL – The U.S. Missile Defense Agency says it failed to intercept a ballistic missile during a test off Hawaii conducted with Japan’s Defense Ministry. The agency said in a statement that the failure came during a Wednesday test.

The U.S. and Japan are jointly developing the interceptor to shoot down medium-range ballistic missiles. The allies have been investing in technology to counter North Korean missile threats.

News of the failed test came as a U.S. official said North Korea carried out another test of a rocket engine that officials believe could be part of its program to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile.

Also on Friday, South Korean President Moon Jae-in observed a test-firing of a new midrange missile being developed to face the threat from the North. Moon’s office quoted him as saying that the launch was important for the South to maintain military capability that could “dominate” the North in order to maintain peace on the peninsula and for future engagement policies with the North to be effective. South Korea’s military plans to deploy the Hyunmoo-2 missile after conducting two more test firings.

As part of the earlier U.S.-Japan test, a medium-range target missile was launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility on Kauai late Wednesday. The USS John Paul Jones detected and tracked the missile. The ship launched the interceptor, but it failed to shoot down the target.

This was the second time the U.S. military has attempted an intercept with the Standard Missile-3 Block IIA. The previous attempt in February was successful.

SM-3 interceptors work with the agency’s Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense system, which is the naval component of the nation’s ballistic missile defenses. U.S. and Japanese ships are already equipped with earlier versions of the SM-3 interceptor and Aegis technology to track ballistic missiles.

Aegis ships from the Maritime Self-Defense Force are slated to be equipped with an updated system by fiscal 2021.

The U.S. military has been developing separate technology to fire interceptors from land, called Ground-based Mid-Course Defense. It currently has interceptors for this system in Fort Greely, Alaska and Vandenberg Air Force Base, California.

North Korea has accelerated the pace of nuclear tests and missile launches in its pursuit of a nuclear-tipped ICBM that could strike as far as the U.S. mainland.

In March, North Korea claimed it successfully tested a new high-thrust engine for development of a long-range ballistic missile.

The engine test at that time was carried out at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground in Tongchang-ri, northwestern North Korea, according to its official media.

Although military experts believe North Korea could still be years away from acquiring a reliable ICBM capability, Robert Soofer, deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear and missile defense policy, said earlier this month that Pyongyang “is poised to conduct its first ICBM test in 2017.”

Last month, Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart, director of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, said that if left on its current trajectory, North Korea will ultimately succeed in fielding a nuclear-armed missile capable of threatening the U.S. homeland.

“While nearly impossible to predict when this capability will be operational, the North Korean regime is on a pathway where this capability is inevitable,” Stewart told the Senate Armed Services Committee on May 23.

The disclosure of the engine test came a day after the United States pressed China to exert more economic and diplomatic pressure on North Korea to help rein in its nuclear and missile programs during a round of high-level talks in Washington.

U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that a “major, major conflict” with North Korea is possible over its weapons programs, although U.S. officials say tougher sanctions, not military force, are the preferred option.

The continental United States is around 5,600 miles (9,000 km (5,600 miles) from North Korea. ICBMs have a minimum range of about 3,400 miles (5,500 km), but some are designed to travel 6,200 miles (10,000 km) or farther.

Trump’s defense secretary, Jim Mattis, said last month that any military solution to the North Korea crisis would be “tragic on an unbelievable scale.”

Later on Friday, U.S. Pacific Command said the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Nimitz has entered the western Pacific Ocean, where another flattop, the USS Ronald Reagan, has already been patrolling.

The Nimitz, which leads a strike team including destroyers with the Aegis missile defense system, arrived in the waters on Wednesday, enabling the navy to maintain its presence there with two aircraft carriers after the departure of the USS Carl Vinson, now on its way to the U.S. mainland, the U.S. said.

The newly dispatched attack team, which is also scheduled to be sent to the Middle East, is expected to conduct joint drills with forces of U.S. allies including the Maritime Self-Defense Force in an effort to counter North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs as well as China’s maritime expansion, sources said.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....
For links see article source.....
https://www.nknews.org/2017/06/is-it-time-for-south-korea-to-develop-nukes/

Is it time for South Korea to develop nukes?

A nuclear-armed Seoul could deal with Pyongyang on an equal playing field

Peter Ward June 23rd, 2017

South Korea is one of the world’s top ten trading nations, with a GDP, by some estimates, close to $2 trillion, and a dynamic, rich economy. It is an open, liberal country with a thriving democracy. It hopes to be taken seriously on the world stage, and many at home feel proud at the mention of South Korean culture being consumed by ever more people worldwide.

Yet South Korea continues to maintain its status as a self-styled weakling in the international system, caught between China and the United States in a great power rivalry on the Korean peninsula and Northeast Asia.

Unlike its far poorer rival in the North, South Korea is essentially reliant on security guarantees in the form of U.S. forces stationed in the South to ensure that North Korea cannot engage in a causal form of nuclear blackmail.

What’s more, Beijing, sensing the weakness, has done what it would never have dared to do to Tokyo and bully the South in the form of sanctions in response to the deployment of THAAD earlier this year. This situation is unsustainable. It cannot continue, and President Moon is the man to offer a radical, grand bargain for the future.

ASSERTING SELF-INTEREST

The United States, China, and South Korea are natural trade partners and allies in the cause of peace in Northeast Asia. At least they were, and will remain so for the next couple of years, so long as North Korea does not acquire the ability to hit the continental United States with a nuclear-tipped ICBM.

If and when it does, all bets are off. The current occupant of the White House is a threat to peace and security in the region and the world. His cabinet and team of advisors are a mix of solipsistic nativists and cold-minded, seasoned realists. The constant mixed signals from Washington on the North Korea situation and THAAD reflect these contradictions at the apex of power.

But they are probably irrelevant longer term, for the simple reason that Washington will probably not tolerate a nuclear-ICBM armed North Korea, regardless of whether it is Trump, Pence or even Elizabeth Warren, Corey Booker or Joe Biden in the White House. My trip to Washington in February, and discussions I have had with many Americans inside and outside the world of policy lead me to the simple conclusion that America will not be blackmailed or threatened by Pyongyang.

Seoul should not make decisions on the assumption that Washington will listen to a weak ally begging it for protection. It is time for Seoul to learn from Washington, Beijing, and Pyongyang what it should already know: when push comes to shove in the international system, you’re on your own.

There is a reason why some of America’s closest allies, some with U.S. assistance, including the United Kingdom, Israel, and France have nuclear weapons. There is also a reason why North Korea has developed nuclear weapons, and China did so too before them. If you do not have them, you will forever be open to blackmail.

NUCLEAR POTENTIAL

The deployment of THAAD represents a silly half-way house between accepting the potentially long-term future of a nuclear North Korea and pretending nothing has changed in the last decade. The time, however, may soon come, however, when South Korea will have to fully accept this reality.

South Korea already has some of the world’s leading weapons makers, it has the potential to manufacture fissile material, and arm missiles and tactical weapons with nuclear warheads. South Korea should tell the Americans that they are no longer needed, that South Korea will protect and arm itself. South Korea is not a weak state, it can take care of itself. Look at North Korea and tell me otherwise.

Moon Jae-in should go to Beijing and tell them that THAAD will be withdrawn, the Americans will leave in due course, and that the U.S. nuclear umbrella will be replaced with one made by domestic weapons experts.

Beijing will be offered the dream of the United States leaving continental Northeast Asia, closer relations with Seoul, a closer trading and investment relationship, and the end of the THAAD deployment. In return, they will be asked to accept South Korea protecting and defending itself from the North Korean nuclear threat.

The next step will be in the direction of Pyongyang. Let us not kid ourselves, the North Koreans are not fools and will never give up their nuclear weapons. So with both states on the Korean peninsula gone nuclear, they will at last once again be in a position to talk as military equals.

There would be no need for more tensions, for more North Korean military provocations, or joint military exercises designed to prove to Pyongyang that the United States means business.

A nuclear South Korea will prove to Kim Jong Un that South Korea is worthy of his respect, and Moon is the President to deliver this. Going nuclear will allow him to do the unthinkable right now: credibly argue to the most ardently anti-North Korean rightists that cooperation, investment in the North and a peace treaty will be good for all.

This would fundamentally alter the balance of power in the region and on the peninsula, allowing Seoul, Beijing, and Pyongyang to work together to turn North Korea from a poor, closed, backward society, to a modern and more open one. Such changes will take time, money, compromise and tremendous effort, but with the confidence and self-respect that comes from taking care of one’s own defense, Seoul and Pyongyang can begin the work of creating a shared, prosperous future.

Edited by Oliver Hotham

Featured Image: IMG_20170217_174651_635 by TheBigTouffe on 2017-02-17 00:46:55
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
USFK: Allies have agreed to deploy THAAD in Korea ASAP

(ATTN: UPDATES with details in last 7 paras; ADDS photo)
By Lee Chi-dong

SEOUL, June 23 2017 (Yonhap) -- The U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) said Friday it has an "original" agreement with South Korea to deploy the THAAD missile defense system here as soon as possible.

It was in response to President Moon Jae-in's view that the deployment process has been "accelerated for some reason" that he does not know.

He has apparently questioned the transparency of the related procedures, especially at home.

"Originally, the alliance decided to deploy THAAD as soon as able in order to substantially improve our layered missile defense against North Korean missile threats," a USFK spokesperson told Yonhap News Agency.

She would not discuss specifics on the timeline, however, citing "operational security reasons."

The official stressed that the U.S. "trusts" South Korea's official stance that the THAAD deployment was an "alliance decision."

"We have worked closely and have been fully transparent with the ROK government throughout this process," she said, using the acronym for South Korea's formal name, the Republic of Korea.

It's rare for the USFK to issue a statement on the sensitive THAAD issue. It usually leaves it to the Pentagon or refers media to South Korea's defense ministry.

It came a day after a foreign news report said that Moon, a liberal leader who took office in early May, took issue with the timeline of the deployment of the U.S. strategic asset on the peninsula.

In an interview with Reuters, Moon was quoted as saying that just one THAAD interceptor launcher was originally scheduled to be installed this year, with five others to arrive in 2018.

In fact, two THAAD rocket launchers are in place at a former golf course in Seongju, North Gyeongsang Province. Four others were brought to South Korea earlier this year and stored at a local USFK base
.
Work on the THAAD installation has been suspended as the Moon administration is reviewing the relevant domestic procedures including the scope of a new environmental impact assessment.

The THAAD issue is expected to be high on the agenda when Moon holds his first summit talks with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington D.C. next week.

Moon told Reuters that he will request that Chinese President Xi Jinping lift Beijing's measures of economic retaliation against Seoul in connection with THAAD, when they have a chance to meet in Germany next month on the sidelines of a G-20 summit.

South Korea and the U.S. reached a deal on deploying a THAAD battery on the peninsula in March last year, two months after North Korea's fourth nuclear test. South Korea was under the administration of a conservative president, Park Geun-hye, who was impeached later amid a bribery and influence-peddling scandal.

A THAAD battery is known to require at least six truck-mounted launchers. Eight interceptors are loaded per launcher as they can be fired and rapidly reloaded, according to the U.S. Missile Defense Agency.

It also comes with a powerful X-band radar, which searches, tracks, discriminates objects and provides updated tracking data to the interceptor, a battery support center and a fire control & communication system.

Speaking by phone in March this year, South Korean Defense Minister Han Min-koo and his American counterpart Jim Mattis "discussed the alliance's responses concerning the THAAD deployment to the USFK," announced their offices. THAAD stands for Terminal High Altitude Area Defense.

lcd@yna.co.kr

(END)


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