New polls show Obama breaking away in key states

[FarmerJohn]

New state polls show Obama with clear leads.

(CNN) – New polls released Wednesday morning suggest the race for the White House could be breaking for Barack Obama in three key battleground states.

Just-released Quinnipiac University surveys show Obama with wide leads in Pennsylvania and Ohio, as well as Florida — the showdown state in the 2000 presidential race where John McCain has had held an advantage for most of the summer.

The latest poll results are bad news for McCain as Election Day inches closer and just may be the clearest sign yet the nation's ongoing financial crisis is taking its toll on the Arizona senator's candidacy.

"It is virtually impossible for McCain to win the White House without Florida and Ohio," CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib said. "The financial crisis is playing right into Obama's message of change, and putting the GOP on the defensive all across the electoral map."

Election Center: Check out CNN's electoral map breakdown [enter the latest news or your own hunches]:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/index.html

Quinnipiac's new survey in Pennsylvania shows Obama with a stunning 14 point-lead over McCain, 54-39 percent. Averaging that survey with other recent Pennsylvania polls, the latest CNN poll of polls there shows a 10-point lead for Obama in the state that only voted for John Kerry by a 2-point margin in 2004. Several polls released earlier this month in Pennsylvania suggested Obama's lead there was in the mid single digits.

A new Quinnipiac Ohio poll also released Wednesday morning shows Obama leading McCain by 8 points there. CNN does not have enough recent polling in Ohio for a poll of polls, but several surveys released earlier this month before the extent of the financial crisis became clear showed the two presidential candidates tied there.

A new Quinnipiac Florida poll also shows big gains for Obama, with the Illinois senator now holding an 8 point lead, 51 to 43 percent. There is also not enough recent polling in Florida to conduct a poll of polls there, though a survey from ARG earlier this week showed Obama with a statistically insignificant 1-point lead.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/01/new-polls-show-obama-breaking-away-in-key-states/

 

[Topusaret]

Whew, for a minute there, I thought it was a 15 point lead in Pennsylvania, but it's only 14. Whew.

No, wait...it IS 15 points...isn't it? 54-39...hmmm, isn't that 15 points?

FJ, I think your statisticians need to update their mathematical hooked on phonics. If they can't get the math right for the article, perhaps they might want to check their addition a little deeper in the poll...lol

 

[FarmerJohn]

Hey, Top,

Rounding of figures may lead to total not totaling 100. This phenomena may be observed wherever statistics are cited by all-to-human reporters. Probably this is not a fiendish attempt to mislead you.

By the way, sometimes I repost articles that I think will be of general interest, funny or informative; sometimes I do the same because the article in question provides some evidence that I think will reinforce a general argument that I have made or may make in the future.

We all know that the only poll that really means anything is the one on election day. the others (like the Quinnipiac) might encourage a candidate to put more effort into a particular state or throw in the towel. I know that a lot of young people these days have no landline and so would never be polled under normal circumstances. We can't know exactly what will happen on election day so we tease ourselves and each other with little bits of infotainment.

FJ

 

[Topusaret]

Hey, Top,

Rounding of figures may lead to total not totaling 100. This phenomena may be observed wherever statistics are cited by all-to-human reporters. Probably this is not a fiendish attempt to mislead you. Not applicable, since the statistics referenced had nothing to do with the "total", but simply the subtraction error, but lending some incredulity to the remainder of their statistics (such as polling sample).

By the way, sometimes I repost articles that I think will be of general interest, funny or informative; sometimes I do the same because the article in question provides some evidence that I think will reinforce a general argument that I have made or may make in the future. And I applaud your efforts to bolster your candidate with your selection of articles to repost. Hopefully, you will applaud my efforts to discount such articles when they may be patently false or absurd.

We all know that the only poll that really means anything is the one on election day. the others (like the Quinnipiac) might encourage a candidate to put more effort into a particular state or throw in the towel. I know that a lot of young people these days have no landline and so would never be polled under normal circumstances. We can't know exactly what will happen on election day so we tease ourselves and each other with little bits of infotainment. Bravo on that assessment. Truly you are correct regarding which poll is the only one that counts. Of course, polls which are misleading, based on false sampling, or outright slanted can also be propagandizing attempts to sway undecided voters one way or the other. After all, that is why election result "predictions" are not allowed to be aired until the last polling station in the country is closed.

FJ