EBOLA Math

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Capt Teach

Veteran Member
Not a math wiz here, but if TPTB are correct, and Ebola cases are doubling every three weeks, would'nt that mean if we start with one case, the entire US population would be infected in about two years? Seems like that possibility should be more cause for alarm than is currently being recognized.

Capt Teach
 
Hfcomms

Hfcomms

EN66iq
Not everyone will be exposed however and not everyone that is exposed actually gets infected. From what I've read at this point Ebola although being highly infectious needing only 1 to 10 virons to get you sick actually doesn't spread as easily as a lot of other viral and bacterial infections. With all the mutations taking place that could change. As an example with the best information we have currently Ebola could spread by aerosol transmission to people who are in close vicinity to an infected person but not to somebody on the other side of a large room perhaps. If the virus ever goes airborne in the truly scientific meaning of the word then it could become as easy to catch as the common cold or flu and that is a horse of a different color. And yet, not everyone exposed to the cold or flu actually comes down with it.
 
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Possible Impact

TB Fanatic
Additional "imported" cases can escalate that number in the near term.

Cold weather, and co-infections with everyday colds and flu, will also modify the rate of spread.
 
naturallysweet

naturallysweet

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Does anyone here trust the CDC to tell us the truth on how many people have Ebola in the US? The family that the first Ebola patient was staying with have gone from talking on the phone to everyone, to vanishing off the planet. Who knows how many other people have vanished?

Or for that matter how many people showed up with Ebola symptoms, and weren't tested or only tested in the initial stages when a positive test is unlikely?

Until bodies are piling up in the streets. Don't expect our government to admit to anything.
 
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Capt Teach

Veteran Member
Doing the math, we could expect about a half dozen cases by Thanksgiving. If they even tell us the truth. The media will say "see, not so bad," but that would actually be right on track. Don't want to ruin Black Friday. Christmas would be more than a dozen, less than twenty. See, not so bad. That's without any further influx of carriers on our shores. The numbers won't be alarming until next summer. Maybe thousands. I'm on my I phone and can't link it, but if someone would please go to Western rifle shooters and read and link the piece. "Stop hoping, start facing" I would appreciate it, and you'll understand what we're up against.
 
BertaBurtonLake

BertaBurtonLake

Inactive
Hacker said:
Any word yet on the disposition of Duncan's family?
Click to expand...

They are reportedly asymptomatic, according to the CDC. But no one has heard from or seen them (except for a written statement from his GF issued after Duncan's death which did not sound like her). Nor have we heard anything about the homeless man who was taken into protective custody after he failed to show for a temp check.
 
P

Possible Impact

TB Fanatic
Capt Teach said:
Doing the math, we could expect about a half dozen cases by Thanksgiving. If they even tell us the truth. The media will say "see, not so bad," but that would actually be right on track. Don't want to ruin Black Friday. Christmas would be more than a dozen, less than twenty. See, not so bad. That's without any further influx of carriers on our shores. The numbers won't be alarming until next summer. Maybe thousands. I'm on my I phone and can't link it, but if someone would please go to Western rifle shooters and read and link the piece. "Stop hoping, start facing" I would appreciate it, and you'll understand what we're up against.
Click to expand...


Stop Hoping – Start Facing

Posted on October 11, 2014 |
http://westernrifleshooters.wordpress.com/2014/10/11/stop-hoping-start-facing/




Aesop walks you through the cold, hard facts.

Reality is a bitch.

And she just doesn’t care.

From a medical briefing a week ago, four key points:
1) Time: Epidemics stop when the new infection cases stop

2) Distance: If you stay 10 feet away from anyone who might have The Bug,
your odds improve markedly

3) Disinfection: Break The Bug’s protein exterior via heat, UV, or oxidizers,
and it dies

4) The combination of suspected Ebola cases and seasonal flu (which
presents like early-stage Ebola) will break the US medical system by EOY


Be ready.
Tempus fugit.
 
dstraito

dstraito

TB Fanatic
Capt Teach said:
Doing the math, we could expect about a half dozen cases by Thanksgiving. If they even tell us the truth. The media will say "see, not so bad," but that would actually be right on track. Don't want to ruin Black Friday. Christmas would be more than a dozen, less than twenty. See, not so bad. That's without any further influx of carriers on our shores. The numbers won't be alarming until next summer. Maybe thousands. I'm on my I phone and can't link it, but if someone would please go to Western rifle shooters and read and link the piece. "Stop hoping, start facing" I would appreciate it, and you'll understand what we're up against.
Click to expand...

I normally avoid Black Friday but now to coin an expression, "I would avoid it like the plague"
 
F

FarmerJohn

Has No Life - Lives on TB
The Nigerian response to their Ebola outbreak has been remarkably effective.

Perhaps they were not overconfident of their own abilities.
 
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Capt Teach

Veteran Member
The market response should be interesting. Even the hint of a quarantine for the holidays will cause major heartburn for retailers
 
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