WAR Main Persian Gulf Trouble thread
- Thread starter northern watch
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Doc1
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Texican's post is important when one considers just how many "loose nukes" or undeclared nuclear weapons may be extant. The US is sending carrier groups to the region, but it's important to note that the smallest tactical nuke can destroy a carrier group both through immediate thermal and blast damage and severe radiological contamination. In the post WWII US Operation Crossroads, scientists learned that an underwater nuclear detonation - even at shallow depth - caused massive contamination as the neutron flux of the blast converted the salt in seawater into extremely radioactive isotopes of sodium. This massively contaminated both the test fleet and the monitoring fleet (which was far away from the blast). Anyone who had been on the test fleet would've been killed by radiation sickness if they hadn't succumbed to the blast.
Best regards
Doc
danielboon
TB Fanatic
ELINT News Retweeted
F. Jeffery
@Natsecjeff
Yup, most likely. General Ali Nasiri mysteriously disappeared and then showed up in a US embassy in an Gulf country with a treasure trove of intelligence documents. This was the guy who used to head the counter-intelligence ops for Iran.
This also explains the shakeup in IRGC.
8:04 PM · Apr 23, 2019
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Lord Bancroff
@LordBancroff
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45m
Replying to
@Natsecjeff
Glad I follow you so I can get the news days before it makes headlines, really cool stuff man!
F. Jeffery
@Natsecjeff
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41m
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kyle wheeler
@kylewhe19442697
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21m
Replying to
@Natsecjeff
and
@ELINTNews
Indeed the reason for the shakeup. I bet Iran is freaking out and trying to shut down every intel operation they have going. If this is true it’s going to cause a huge ripple effect. Not just in Iran but across the world. The secrets that man could spill have no price limit.
Or #4: The US could quit playing world dictator and quit expecting people to suck it up without returning some pain to the agressors known as the US.
We are still, even with Trump, trying to play empire building and world policeman, neither of which are principles that the country was founded upon.
TheSearcher
Are you sure about that?
In what way does Iran have that option?
Bridey Rose
Veteran Member
MSM TV news was all over the hike in gas prices to above $4/gal in Cali; some places as high as $4.78! IIRC, the price hike was attributed to a state gas tax hike. But not a peep about the possibility of renewed military action affecting shipments of ME oil. Will fill up ASAP.
danielboon
TB Fanatic
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
RUMORS SEEK TO DRIVE US AND IRAN INTO CONFLICT IN EASTERN SYRIA
Rumors seek to drive US and Iran into conflict in eastern Syria
jpost.com
10:45 PM · Apr 23, 2019 ·
https://t.co/PSgOuvRkAe
@EndGameWW3
RUMORS SEEK TO DRIVE US AND IRAN INTO CONFLICT IN EASTERN SYRIA
Rumors seek to drive US and Iran into conflict in eastern Syria
jpost.com
10:45 PM · Apr 23, 2019 ·
https://t.co/PSgOuvRkAe
Agreed!
China Connection
TB Fanatic
China will not keep being told what they can and can't do. They are aligned with Russia against the U.S. A modern war can change everything in a matter of hours no matter what side you are on.
That would be radioactive base surge. We trained for that way back in the day when I was on a carrier in NBC defense. Also those underwater blasts can rupture hulls too.
Hopefully that situation won't occur.
Sandune
Veteran Member
Don't the smaller nukes need to be periodically recycled? Are there components that 'expire' and must to be replaced? It's been nearly 30 years since the fall of the Soviets. Any stolen nuke may be well past it's expiration date. I do know the older hydrogen bombs (1950's) required cryogenic cooling to function but very ignorant about what advancements were made since then.
marymonde
Veteran Member
That scenario between China and Russia has crossed my mind.
Yep history, Roam /Britsh/Spain all found out the hard way this fact, and soon we will to.......
Bardou
Veteran Member
Yep, I agree with this. Eventually we're going to get our asses kicked royally. 9/11 wasn't enough, I expect greater things to come our way. We gotta fight back, but we don't have to be the instigators.
In a fusion device, the Tritium needs to be periodically replaced.
SouthernBreeze
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Sandune
Veteran Member
That's it! I suppose suit case nukes need to be strictly fission for size. They could be usable for hundreds of years.
danielboon
TB Fanatic
Iran's Zarif warns U.S. of 'consequences' over oil sanctions, Strait of Hormuz NEW YORK (Reuters) - The United States must be prepared for consequences if it tries to stop Iran from selling oil and using the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif warned on Wednesday, while also offering to negotiate prisoner swaps with Washington.
The United States on Monday demanded buyers of Iranian oil stop purchases by May or face sanctions, ending six months of waivers which allowed Iran's eight biggest buyers, most of them in Asia, to continue importing limited volumes.
"We believe that Iran will continue to sell its oil. We will continue to find buyers for our oil and we will continue to use the Strait of Hormuz as a safe transit passage for the sale of our oil," Zarif told an event at the Asia Society in New York.
Reinforcing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's stance, Zarif warned: "If the United States takes the crazy measure of trying to prevent us from doing that, then it should be prepared for the consequences." He did not give specifics.
Oil prices hit their highest level since November on Tuesday after Washington's announcement.
When asked if the U.S. pressure campaign on Tehran was aimed at sparking further negotiations or regime change, Zarif said: "The B team wants regime change at the very least." He described the B Team as including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump's national security adviser John Bolton.
"It is not a crisis yet, but it is a dangerous situation. Accidents ... are possible. I wouldn't discount the B team plotting an accident anywhere in the region, particularly as we get closer to the election. We are not there yet."
Zarif suggested possible cooperation with the United States to bring stability to Iraq and Afghanistan, a priority for both Tehran and Washington.
He also said he was willing to swap British-Iranian aid worker Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, who has been detained in Iran since 2016, for an Iranian woman detained in Australia for the past three years on a U.S. extradition request.
"I feel sorry for them, and I have done my best to help," Zarif said of Zaghari-Ratcliffe. "But nobody talks about this lady in Australia who gave birth to a child in prison. ... I put this offering on the table publicly now - exchange them."
Zarif then went on to say that Iran had told the U.S. administration six months ago that it was open to a prisoner swap deal, but had not yet received a response.
"All these people that are in prison inside the United States, on extradition requests from the United States, we believe their charges are phony. The United States believes the charges against these people in Iran are phony. Let's not discuss that," he said.
"Let's have an exchange. I'm ready to do it and I have authority to do it," Zarif said. https://www.yahoo.com/news/irans-zarif-warns-u-consequences-over-oil-sanctions-141604452.html
The United States on Monday demanded buyers of Iranian oil stop purchases by May or face sanctions, ending six months of waivers which allowed Iran's eight biggest buyers, most of them in Asia, to continue importing limited volumes.
"We believe that Iran will continue to sell its oil. We will continue to find buyers for our oil and we will continue to use the Strait of Hormuz as a safe transit passage for the sale of our oil," Zarif told an event at the Asia Society in New York.
Reinforcing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's stance, Zarif warned: "If the United States takes the crazy measure of trying to prevent us from doing that, then it should be prepared for the consequences." He did not give specifics.
Oil prices hit their highest level since November on Tuesday after Washington's announcement.
When asked if the U.S. pressure campaign on Tehran was aimed at sparking further negotiations or regime change, Zarif said: "The B team wants regime change at the very least." He described the B Team as including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump's national security adviser John Bolton.
"It is not a crisis yet, but it is a dangerous situation. Accidents ... are possible. I wouldn't discount the B team plotting an accident anywhere in the region, particularly as we get closer to the election. We are not there yet."
Zarif suggested possible cooperation with the United States to bring stability to Iraq and Afghanistan, a priority for both Tehran and Washington.
He also said he was willing to swap British-Iranian aid worker Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, who has been detained in Iran since 2016, for an Iranian woman detained in Australia for the past three years on a U.S. extradition request.
"I feel sorry for them, and I have done my best to help," Zarif said of Zaghari-Ratcliffe. "But nobody talks about this lady in Australia who gave birth to a child in prison. ... I put this offering on the table publicly now - exchange them."
Zarif then went on to say that Iran had told the U.S. administration six months ago that it was open to a prisoner swap deal, but had not yet received a response.
"All these people that are in prison inside the United States, on extradition requests from the United States, we believe their charges are phony. The United States believes the charges against these people in Iran are phony. Let's not discuss that," he said.
"Let's have an exchange. I'm ready to do it and I have authority to do it," Zarif said. https://www.yahoo.com/news/irans-zarif-warns-u-consequences-over-oil-sanctions-141604452.html
Bensam
Deceased
Absolutely
northern watch
TB Fanatic
French, American and British ships complete Artemis Trident 19 in Gulf
By Tom Dunlop
UK Defence Journal
April 22, 2019
France’s Marine Nationale, the United Kingdom’s Royal Navy and the US Navy completed the US 5th Fleet mine countermeasures exercise Artemis Trident 19 in the Arabian Gulf.
The scenario for the exercise was for coalition forces to provide safe passage to humanitarian relief vessels through a mined area.
“Mines threaten maritime traffic indiscriminately,” US Navy Capt. Jeffrey Morganthaler, Commodore of Task Force 52 and lead for the exercise, said in a release.
“Training together ensures we can collectively protect unfettered operations of naval and support vessels, as well as commercial shipping movements, throughout the maritime domain.”
In the fictional scenario, 70 nautical miles of channels and routes were cleared for simulated shipping using multiple, integrated sensors. Geographically dispersed forces practiced choke point clearance and harbor breakout according to the US Navy.
“The exercise involved over 700 personnel, 10 ships, and five helicopters from the three nations. The ships included the U.S. Navy expeditionary sea base USS Lewis B. Puller (ESB 3), fleet ocean tug USNS Catawba (T-ATF 168), Avenger-class mine countermeasures ship USS Sentry (MCM 3), Island-class coastal patrol boats USCGC Maui (WPB 1304) and USCGC Wrangell (WPB 1332); the United Kingdom’s RFA Cardigan Bay (L3009) and minehunters HMS Shoreham (M112) and HMS Ledbury (M30); and the French Marine Nationale’s minehunters FS L’Aigle (M647) and FS Sagittaire (M650).”
As part of the exercise, FS L’Aigle and HMS Ledbury simultaneously rafted with the RFA Cardigan Bay.
RFA Cardigan Bay’s support increased the endurance of the mine hunters, demonstrating how a multinational force could conduct sustainment and repairs during extended mine clearance operations.
In another scenario, six of the ships practiced collective self-defense, working together to defend themselves from simulated air and surface threats.
“The exercise has been a highlight in our current deployment, and it exemplifies how we are stronger together, in an area that is so complex,” said France’s Marine Nationale Lt. Pierre, mine clearance diving officer aboard FS L’Aigle.
“France deploys MCM vessels on a regular basis to the Arabian Gulf, to maintain expertise of the local environment, and I am looking forward to the next exercise.”
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/fre...sh-ships-complete-artemis-trident-19-in-gulf/
By Tom Dunlop
UK Defence Journal
April 22, 2019
France’s Marine Nationale, the United Kingdom’s Royal Navy and the US Navy completed the US 5th Fleet mine countermeasures exercise Artemis Trident 19 in the Arabian Gulf.
The scenario for the exercise was for coalition forces to provide safe passage to humanitarian relief vessels through a mined area.
“Mines threaten maritime traffic indiscriminately,” US Navy Capt. Jeffrey Morganthaler, Commodore of Task Force 52 and lead for the exercise, said in a release.
“Training together ensures we can collectively protect unfettered operations of naval and support vessels, as well as commercial shipping movements, throughout the maritime domain.”
In the fictional scenario, 70 nautical miles of channels and routes were cleared for simulated shipping using multiple, integrated sensors. Geographically dispersed forces practiced choke point clearance and harbor breakout according to the US Navy.
“The exercise involved over 700 personnel, 10 ships, and five helicopters from the three nations. The ships included the U.S. Navy expeditionary sea base USS Lewis B. Puller (ESB 3), fleet ocean tug USNS Catawba (T-ATF 168), Avenger-class mine countermeasures ship USS Sentry (MCM 3), Island-class coastal patrol boats USCGC Maui (WPB 1304) and USCGC Wrangell (WPB 1332); the United Kingdom’s RFA Cardigan Bay (L3009) and minehunters HMS Shoreham (M112) and HMS Ledbury (M30); and the French Marine Nationale’s minehunters FS L’Aigle (M647) and FS Sagittaire (M650).”
As part of the exercise, FS L’Aigle and HMS Ledbury simultaneously rafted with the RFA Cardigan Bay.
RFA Cardigan Bay’s support increased the endurance of the mine hunters, demonstrating how a multinational force could conduct sustainment and repairs during extended mine clearance operations.
In another scenario, six of the ships practiced collective self-defense, working together to defend themselves from simulated air and surface threats.
“The exercise has been a highlight in our current deployment, and it exemplifies how we are stronger together, in an area that is so complex,” said France’s Marine Nationale Lt. Pierre, mine clearance diving officer aboard FS L’Aigle.
“France deploys MCM vessels on a regular basis to the Arabian Gulf, to maintain expertise of the local environment, and I am looking forward to the next exercise.”
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/fre...sh-ships-complete-artemis-trident-19-in-gulf/
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Barbara StarrVerified account @barbarastarrcnn · 7h7 hours ago
Barbara Starr Retweeted Barbara Starr
Iran's military also possesses advanced sea mines, including acoustic and magnetic variants, a US defense official tells CNN, weapons that could pose major risks to maritime traffic.
Barbara Starr Retweeted Barbara Starr
Iran's military also possesses advanced sea mines, including acoustic and magnetic variants, a US defense official tells CNN, weapons that could pose major risks to maritime traffic.
northern watch
TB Fanatic
IntelSky ? ✈þ @Intel_sky · Apr 23
? Were Iran to attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. would rely on at least two carrier strike groups to lead efforts to reopen the Strait. It's a relevant concern in that U.S.-Iran tensions are escalating quickly.
? Were Iran to attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. would rely on at least two carrier strike groups to lead efforts to reopen the Strait. It's a relevant concern in that U.S.-Iran tensions are escalating quickly.
It doesn’t work that way. The “trading market” sets world prices. We’d have to permanently disengage from that market in order to do that. The global disruption would be Biblical.
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Gregor Peter @L0gg0l · 3h3 hours ago
For the first time since 2016, the U.S Navy has two aircraft carrier strike groups in the Mediterranean (USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Stennis). Also the Kearsarge Amphibious Ready Group in the Persian Gulf. Could be some contingency planning with Iran deadline coming May 2nd
For the first time since 2016, the U.S Navy has two aircraft carrier strike groups in the Mediterranean (USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Stennis). Also the Kearsarge Amphibious Ready Group in the Persian Gulf. Could be some contingency planning with Iran deadline coming May 2nd
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
That is, QUITE SERIOUSLY a LOTTA WHOOP-ASS right there...
PLUS the 22 MEU embarked aboard the Kearsarge is VERY familiar with the area, and i STRONGLY suspect they have friends in Jordan they can talk to fairly easily. LONG relationships develop in the chief/E-4/5/6 levels as well as LT and Capt levels. Those relations mature over 20 years+...
(the 22 MEU has done alternating seasons in Jordan with their oposite numbers for EASILY 30 years. One might be surprised who actually KNOWS the King since he gets his hands dirty in the field if he can break away)
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
Highly unlikely Sandune.
Current Fusion explosive tech starts with a detonation of a concussive "lens" that crams the fission materials (the "Pit") MUCH closer (atomically) than "normal" so it takes much less material to generate a fusion reaction. The chassis and framework for a fusion det are thought to be in the neighborhood of a moderate sized Igloo cooler (just less than the 100 quart one).
intothatgoodnight
. . .
Iran also possesses Russian ultra-high speed missile tech, which can be delivered from either land and/or high-speed/maneuverable PT boat-type of vessel x several of such, either of which could wreak absolute havoc (think sunken aircraft carrier(s)) on a task force sailing in the adjacent Gulf - for very little net-net cost vs. the economic and political cost of a sunk carrier and/or other task force surface ships.
And, then, there is the navigability problem for other vessels piloting around sunken large ships sitting in the middle of the channel.
What, exactly, can a U.S. carrier strike group ACTUALLY DO to "reopen the Strait" without they, themselves, becoming a sitting duck to ultra high-speed shore-to-ship missiles? There are no real effective countermeasures available in the close confines of the Strait of Hormuz, once a few ultra high speed missiles are launched on U.S. Navy assets - by the time such ultra high speed missiles are even seen/detected by JSTARS or other look-down tech, the incoming missile(s) is simply moving too fast for much effective countermeasure before impact - especially if there are several (did I mention relatively cheap) ultra high speed missiles which are simultaneously incoming towards several U.S. ship targets.
It only TAKES ONE to reach its target.
intothegoodnight
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Not sure about that. Had family that lives in Europe take a vacation and one of the places they visited was Saudi Arabia and the one thing the talked about was how their gas was like 25 cents per gallon while they were paying dollars per liter. Now that could just be taxes but it does make one stop and go hmmmmmm.
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
If the Kearsarge ARG rumbles in the right direction they have the required personnel and gear to clear the mines, among other skills.
If it "got going" it would make Operation Praying Mantis of 1988 look like a warm up....
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/1989/may/operation-praying-mantis-surface-view
https://www.history.navy.mil/browse...ther-operations/operation-praying-mantis.html
http://www.navybook.com/no-higher-honor/timeline/operation-praying-mantis/
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
Most likely, unfortunately, it'd likely look like VanRiper's 2000 wargame.
And not the 3rd try where the Blue team eked out a "victory".
================================================================
Ona similar note, wish I knew whether or not the current iteration of "Brown Water Navy" PT boats (riverine boats) are air transportable more than one at a time...
And not the 3rd try where the Blue team eked out a "victory".
================================================================
Ona similar note, wish I knew whether or not the current iteration of "Brown Water Navy" PT boats (riverine boats) are air transportable more than one at a time...
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Yeah. You're not going to "run" the Straits with what the Iranians can focus on those shipping channels and their approaches. If Tehran goes there, its basically a green light to "settle all debts" with them. In the past I've alluded to a "JDAM Fueled Rolling Thunder/Linebacker Redux". With recent events we'd have to add in Hezbollah and all the other "usual suspects" in the region. In other words at a minimum a full up Middle East War between the Shia and Sunni with everyone else dragged in.
Circle May 2 on your calendar.The U.S. had granted 180-day waivers to eight countries, allowing them to buy Iranian crude despite sanctions put in place in November, with the stipulation that the countries move toward reducing those purchases and eventually stopping imports.
That waiver expires on the 2nd.
That waiver expires on the 2nd.
intothatgoodnight
. . .
. . . which begs the question - is Iran in control of its entire Russian ultra high speed missile contingent? Or, are **some** under the control of "terrorist" groups not under the direct command and control of Iran - essentially, a de facto quasi deep state-type element running roughshod within the several muslim country's political "wheelhouse," and not necessarily answerable to Iran, or other muslim country's control, directly?
Same question with regards to ANY other modern missile tech - western/American or Chinese - do fringe/nefarious elements possess such, and are willing to wield such in an attempt to create an international incident of note?
Be willing to bet that Russia knows the answer to this question.
How to create a viable False Flag 101.
intothegoodnight
1) It IS taxes
2) The Saudis subsidize gasoline
I’m surprised you don’t know this stuff.
AlfaMan
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Yes, in the smaller nukes there needs to be periodic replacement of the IHE (insensitive high explosive) lenses surrounding the pit. The explosive "lenses" are designed to detonate simultaneously and compress the uranium "pit" to critical mass. They do degrade over time.
Also, the deuterium capsules and tritium components need to be replaced regularly (the tritium has a half life of 12.3 years).
If those components haven't been replaced or upgraded, then the "old" nuke can be disassembled and used as an RDD (radioactive dispersal device) or more commonly known as a dirty bomb.
Also, the deuterium capsules and tritium components need to be replaced regularly (the tritium has a half life of 12.3 years).
If those components haven't been replaced or upgraded, then the "old" nuke can be disassembled and used as an RDD (radioactive dispersal device) or more commonly known as a dirty bomb.