WAR Main Persian Gulf Trouble thread

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The Spectator Index
@spectatorindex
32s

BREAKING: The Taliban has moved more heavy military equipment towards the border with Iran, amid border clashes and warnings of escalation from officials.
 
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TB Fanatic

IDF launches largescale exercise​

The “Firm Hand” annual General Staff drill began today and will take place over the course of two weeks.

By Erin Viner

The exercise is being held as part of the pre-planned 2023 training program.

Training will include simulations of intense multi-arena combat in the aerial, maritime, ground, spectrum and cyber arenas aimed at testing IDF readiness for a prolonged campaign in a multitude of arenas, said a statement from the Israeli military obtained by TV7.

All active duty and reserve troops from all commands, branches and directorates will participate in the exercise focused on the simultaneous confrontation of challenges and developing incidents in a variety of scenarios.

As part of Firm Hand, the Northern Command will concentrate the first week of training on the 91st Galilee Division and the 36th Ga’ash Division in the last week.

“Additionally, the exercise will revise operative plans in civilian areas and efforts to save lives in the home front. This year, the operation of spectral control cells will be practiced for the first time. Their role is to formulate a situational evaluation in the field of spectrum warfare,” said the IDF statement, adding that “active maneuvering of security personnel will be felt throughout the country: military and armored vehicles, aircraft and naval vessels” for the next two weeks. IDF launches largescale exercise - TV7 Israel News
 
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Exclusive: Iran and US near interim deal on enrichment and oil exports​


By MEE correspondent in Tehran​



Direct talks between Robert Malley and Iran's ambassador to the UN have taken place on US soil, sources say, but it remains to be seen whether senior officials back the proposals

Iran's United Nations Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani address the UN General Assembly in February (AP)
Published date: 8 June 2023 16:00 BST | Last update: 1 day 7 hours ago

Iran and the United States are nearing a temporary deal that would swap some sanctions relief for reducing Iranian uranium enrichment activities, two sources with direct knowledge of the talks told Middle East Eye.
According to an Iranian official and a person close to negotiations, the talks have taken place directly on US soil, marking a notable development in the diplomatic process.
However, there is still reluctance on the US side to rejoin the 2015 nuclear deal known as the JCPOA, they said.
Leading the Iranian delegation is Amir Saeed Iravani, Iran's recently appointed ambassador to the United Nations, who also played a pivotal role in the initial stages of the Iran-Saudi Arabia reconciliation talks in Baghdad.
On the American side, Robert Malley, the US special envoy on Iran, has engaged in several face-to-face meetings with Iravani.

​

Negotiations have made significant headway and the two sides have reached an agreement on a temporary deal to take to their respective superiors, the sources said.
Under the terms of the deal, Iran would commit to ceasing its 60 percent-and-beyond uranium enrichment activities and would continue its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for the monitoring and verification of its nuclear programme.

In exchange, the sources said, Tehran would be allowed to export up to a million barrels of oil per day and gain access to its income and other frozen funds abroad.
Those funds would have to be exclusively used to purchase a range of essential items, including food and medication.
In addition to the bilateral talks between Iran and the US, Qatar has emerged as a facilitator, offering its assistance in resolving banking-related issues that have emerged as a significant point of contention.
Middle East Eye asked Malley and the Qatari foreign ministry for comment, without response. Later, a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council told Reuters: "Any reports of an interim deal are false." The Iranian mission to the UN then said: "Our comment is the same as the White House comment."

After Reuters asked the US State Department to confirm if Malley had been negotiating with Iravani, the news agency reported: "A State Department spokesperson declined to comment on any such talks, saying only that it had ways to pass messages to Iran but would not detail their content or how they were delivered."
Reuters also reported that two unnamed Iranian officials said "there had been progress but no agreement was imminent". A third said Malley and Iravani had met three times in the past week.
While the progress seems promising, the ultimate decision lies with senior Iranian officials.
Iravani has conveyed the details of the agreement to the senior decision-makers in Tehran for their approval. However, it remains uncertain whether the supreme leader and the national security council will give their consent.
Historically, Iranian authorities have been opposed to interim deals such as this, a former diplomatic official told MEE, especially during the 2017-2021 second presidential term of Hassan Rouhani.

According to the sources, Malley told the Iranians that President Joe Biden has no intention of returning to the JCPOA in its original form, which Donald Trump unilaterally pulled the US out of in 2018.
Malley also warned that if Iran begins 90 percent uranium enrichment, the Pentagon would take control of the Iranian nuclear issue from the State Department, the sources said.
Middle East Eye delivers independent and unrivalled coverage and analysis of the Middle East, North Africa and beyond. To learn more about republishing this content and the associated fees, please fill out this form. More about MEE can be found here.
Click to expand...

www.middleeasteye.net

Exclusive: Iran and US near interim deal on enrichment and oil exports

Direct talks between Robert Malley and Iran's ambassador to the UN have taken place on US soil, sources say, but it remains to be seen whether senior officials back the proposals
www.middleeasteye.net www.middleeasteye.net
 
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Iran unveils what it calls a hypersonic missile able to beat air defenses amid tensions with US​


By JON GAMBRELL​

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran claimed on Tuesday that it had created a hypersonic missile capable of traveling at 15 times the speed of sound, adding a new weapon to its arsenal as tensions remain high with the United States over Tehran’s nuclear program.
The new missile — called Fattah, or “Conqueror” in Farsi — was unveiled even as Iran said it would reopen its diplomatic posts on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia after reaching a détente with Riyadh following years of conflict.
The tightly choreographed segment on Iranian state television apparently sought to show that Tehran’s hard-line government can still deploy arms against its enemies across much of the Middle East.
“Today we feel that the deterrent power has been formed,” Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said at the event. “This power is an anchor of lasting security and peace for the regional countries.”

Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the head of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard’s aerospace program, unveiled what appeared to be a model of the missile. Hajizadeh claimed the missile had a range of up to 1,400 kilometers (870 miles).
That’s about mid-range for Iran’s expansive ballistic missile arsenal, which the Guard has built up over the years as Western sanctions largely prevent it from accessing advanced weaponry.
“There exists no system that can rival or counter this missile,” Hajizadeh claimed.
That claim, however, depends on how maneuverable the missile is. Ballistic missiles fly on a trajectory in which anti-missile systems like the Patriot can anticipate their path and intercept them. Tuesday’s event showed what appeared to be a moveable nozzle for the Fattah, which could allow it to change trajectories in flight. The more irregular the missile’s flight path, the more difficult it becomes to intercept.
Iranian officials did not release footage of a Fattah successfully launching and then striking a target. Hajizadeh later said that there had been a ground test of the missile’s engine.

A ground test involves a rocket motor being put on a stand and fired to check its abilities while launching a missile with that rocket motor is much more complex.
Hypersonic weapons, which fly at speeds in excess of Mach 5, or five times the speed of sound, could pose crucial challenges to missile defense systems because of their speed and maneuverability. Iran described the Fattah as being able to reach Mach 15 — which is 15 times the speed of sound.
China is believed to be pursuing the weapons, as is America. Russia claims to already be fielding the weapons and has said it used them on the battlefield in Ukraine. However, speed and maneuverability isn’t a guarantee the missile will successfully strike a target. Ukraine’s air force in May said it shot down a Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missile with a Patriot battery.

Gulf Arab countries allied with the U.S. widely use the Patriot missile system in the region. Israel, Iran’s main rival in the Mideast, also has its own robust air defenses.
In November, Hajizadeh initially claimed that Iran had created a hypersonic missile, without offering evidence to support it. That claim came during the nationwide protests that followed the September death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after her arrest by the country’s morality police.
Tuesday’s announcement came as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is to begin a visit to Saudi Arabia.

apnews.com

Iran unveils what it calls a hypersonic missile able to beat air defenses amid tensions with US

Iran is claiming that it's created a hypersonic missile capable of traveling at 15 times the speed of sound. The announcement comes as tensions are high with the United States over Tehran's nuclear program. Iran's state television reported that the missile — called Fattah, or “Conqueror” — has a...
apnews.com apnews.com
 
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Ebrahim Raisí, President of Iran, will travel to Nicaragua, Venezuela and Cuba​


Under the regime of Raisí, an ultra-conservative cleric sanctioned by the US, some 580 Iranian political prisoners have been "executed", according to the UN


The president of Iran, Ebrahim Raisí, in October 2022. Photo: EFE

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Confidential Writing

June 7, 2023

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The president of Iran, Ebrahim Raisí, will travel next week to Nicaragua , Venezuela and Cuba to strengthen relations with these "friendly countries" in economic, political and scientific matters, the presidential office announced on Wednesday, according to state media such as IRNA.

The Iranian president will travel accompanied by a "delegation of senior officials" on his visit to these three countries, to which he travels "invited" by the dictators Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua ; Miguel Díaz-Canel in Cuba; and Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.




Under the administration of Raisí, an ultra-conservative cleric sanctioned by the United States, at least 580 political prisoners have been "executed", according to the United Nations (UN).

Raisí, former head of Iran's judiciary, will begin his Latin American tour on Sunday, when he will depart from Tehran. This is his first trip to the region since he took office in August 2021. Until now, he has focused on visits to the region to strengthen relations with Iran's neighbors.

Mutual opposition to the United States​


Iran maintains close ties with the dictatorships in Nicaragua, Venezuela and Cuba, cemented by their mutual opposition to the United States.

Ortega is one of Iran's main allies in Latin America and has supported Iran's nuclear program and called on Israel to "disarm" to avoid a war.

In February 2023, the governments of both countries signed a memorandum on cooperation and public consultations in Managua, during the visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian to Nicaragua.

During a meeting with the Iranian Foreign Minister, Ortega commented that "in this world what would fit is that we all look for how to have our atomic weapon so that they respect us, because they do respect us when they know that the one they want to crush has the atomic weapon." ”.

"With what authority do they want to ban Iran if it wants to make atomic bombs?" Ortega asked.

Amir-Abdollahian also met with senior Nicaraguan Army officers , who told him that Nicaragua "opposed perceived US efforts to expand its influence in Latin America and expressed a willingness to engage with Tehran and other like-minded countries." revealed an article in the US newspaper The New York Times , which used a leaked Pentagon document as a source.

Iranian relationship with dictatorships​


Relations between Tehran and Caracas have been very close since the time of the late President Hugo Chávez (1999-2013) and have strengthened ever since.

Iran has become one of the main allies of the Maduro government in recent years, particularly since 2020 when there was a gasoline shortage in Venezuela and Caracas went to Tehran to buy fuel.

Maduro made an official visit to Tehran in May 2022, where he met with Raisí and with the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, who praised Venezuela's "resistance" against the United States.

Iran and Cuba are close political allies and share their support for Venezuela and their animosity towards the US, which keeps all these countries under sanctions.

Last year Tehran and Havana agreed to strengthen their cooperation in technology and food security, during the visit to the Persian country of the Cuban deputy prime minister, Ricardo Cabrisas.
 
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Revealed: Iranian Regime’s Apprehension and Desperation for Nuclear Deal - NCRI​


Mahmoud Hakamian​


A classified document obtained and disclosed by the Iranian dissident group “GhyamSarnegouni” reveals the Iranian regime’s apprehension regarding a possible firm stance of Western governments on Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. It also highlights the desperate efforts of Tehran to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and benefit from the significant concessions granted by world powers in 2015.
The communication, originating from Iran’s Majlis (parliament) Research Center and addressed to the regime’s president Ebrahim Raisi, evaluates Tehran’s agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The letter emphasizes that statements made by IAEA chief Rafael Grossi regarding access, including the possibility of conducting interviews with individuals, raise concerns about potential security implications. The leaked letter further indicates that when viewed from the perspective of Western countries, the regime faced mounting pressure amidst recent unrest. Just a few days prior to sending the letter, Enrique Mora, the EU’s chief negotiator, explicitly stated in an interview that Tehran sees a nuclear deal as the most viable path to navigate the crisis resulting from ongoing protests.
Therefore, as outlined in the letter, reaching an agreement with the IAEA under such circumstances would signify that “Iran, under pressure, was compelled to offer concessions that it was not willing to make before the current protests and economic challenges.”

Below is the full text of this letter:
His Excellency Mr. Dr. Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi
Dear President,
Greetings.
I hope this message finds you in good health and high regard. I wanted to discuss the recent visit of the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency and the agreements and negotiations that took place during this visit. A report titled “Reflection on the Agreement between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency” has been prepared by the political studies office of the Majlis Research Center, and I would like to present it to you.

Introduction:
The Director General’s visit to Tehran to hold a meeting of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency had a positive psychological impact on the prospects of a nuclear agreement. However, the new agreement has legal dimensions, interesting and perhaps concerning political aspects. In order to accurately assess the content of this bilateral agreement, it is necessary to review the joint statement and the interviews given by officials from both sides. However, there were discrepancies in the statements made by officials from the Atomic Energy Organization [of Iran] and the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency regarding the dimensions of the agreement, making it difficult for experts to evaluate.

Agreed-upon aspects:
After examining the joint statement and the statements made by both parties, two general issues have been agreed upon. The first issue relates to the remaining safeguard issues concerning three sites claimed by the Agency. Iran has expressed its readiness to provide more information and access to address these issues. The second issue pertains to activities or limitations within Iran’s nuclear program in the past year. Specifically, the International Atomic Energy Agency seeks Iran’s voluntary cooperation for further verification and monitoring, including the resumption of surveillance cameras and increased inspection of the Fordow complex.
Regarding the first issue, two points should be noted. First, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, there is no obligation to present the termination of the case or the final report within a specific timeframe. The focus is on expediting the resolution of the remaining safeguard issues related to these three sites. Grossi, the Secretary-General, stated in his interview that he will present his assessment of the investigation’s process and results to the Board of Governors after completing the technical stages of “summary” and “evaluation.” It is important to note that this summary does not mean the end of Iran’s case but rather signifies Iran’s agreement to increase access to the IAEA, which does not necessarily lead to the closure of the case. Second, if it is true that accessibility also involves interviews with individuals, it may have security implications.

Regarding the second issue, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s request for a 50% increase in monitoring individual facilities is justified due to the increase in the abundance of materials under safeguards. Although there are differing opinions on the detailed calculations of the percentage increase in monitoring, the reinstallation of cameras serves as a precautionary measure. It was previously stated that the camera data would not be available to the International Atomic Energy Agency until the sanctions are lifted. However, considering that the agreement with the IAEA grants access to the data, this can be seen as an additional safeguard action, albeit delaying compliance with the strategic action law.
To determine whether this agreement violates Article 6 of the Strategic Action Law, detailed information is needed, and the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission can evaluate this issue by inviting a senior member of the Atomic Energy Organization. However, based on Iran’s general commitment in paragraph 3 of the statement, the possibility of violating the law is not ruled out. The phrase “Iran voluntarily allows the agency” indicates that Iran commits within the safeguards framework.

Strategic assessment:
Beyond the potential violation of the Strategic Action Law, the implications and strategic effects of the government’s decision to agree with the International Atomic Energy Agency are very important. The agreement was reached at a time when Tehran was under pressure from the West due to the recent unrest. Enrique Mora, the coordinator of the JCPOA negotiations, clearly stated in a recent interview that a nuclear agreement is the best way out for Tehran to resolve the crisis caused by these disturbances. Therefore, from the Western perspective, reaching an agreement with the IAEA implies that Iran, under pressure, has been compelled to make concessions that it was previously unwilling to make.
Furthermore, Mora believes that Iran has not gained any specific points through extensive cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. The agreement itself is not the problem; rather, it is how we carry out our obligations and address our concerns that will determine the success or failure of the agreement. Some sources within Iran implicitly present three arguments to defend the agreement with the IAEA. First, they argue that the market effects are short-term, and relying on this factor to manage the market for more than a few days is not feasible. Additionally, from a technical perspective, the effect of the Central Bank’s license on non-bank transactions, such as purchasing export currency for petrochemicals and minerals, has a more significant impact on reducing the price of the dollar in the open market than the psychological effect of the agreement. However, the simultaneous implementation of these two issues has diverted attention from the role of the central bank in leading the market.

The second argument highlights the agreement’s impact on preventing the issuance of a resolution against Iran by the Council of Ministers. Although the issuance of such a resolution is not definitive and lacks consensus, the United States is reluctant to pursue this path due to concerns over Iran’s possible reaction. In the nuclear dimension, Iran has tried to avoid provocative actions that would force an increase in enrichment. Therefore, according to this logic, instead of offering concessions, Iran could have used the threat of nuclear countermeasures to prevent the issuance of a resolution. Moreover, European countries may miscalculate that if Iran, due to concerns about the resolution of the Board of Governors, has agreed to provide significant concessions regarding transparency and supervision to the International Atomic Energy Agency, then by threatening to activate the snapback mechanism and reintroducing resolutions in October 2023, more significant concessions can be obtained from Iran in both nuclear and non-nuclear domains.

The third argument revolves around the closure of the case regarding the alleged three sites. Achieving this would fulfill the most crucial remaining precondition for Iran to reach an agreement. However, Iran has not made any commitments regarding this issue. Past experiences of Iran’s cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency over the past twenty years have shown that providing more technical information to the Agency without high-level political guarantees from the US and Europe to fulfill challenging commitments has had the opposite effect and has been used as leverage against Iran. Granting new access to the International Atomic Energy Agency may not only result in terminating the Iran dossier but may also complicate matters in the Board of Governors.

Conclusion:
The concessions Iran has made to the International Atomic Energy Agency, such as data sharing, could be part of a limited agreement with the West, which would grant Iran certain benefits, such as managing foreign exchange resources or the oil market. However, these concessions have not received specific rewards, and the achievements resulting from this agreement are difficult to envision. It is worth noting that some individuals close to the American negotiating team did not expect Iran to make concessions without receiving compensation in the field of verification and monitoring. Therefore, it is necessary to manage the situation in a way that reduces the risks associated with this agreement and changes the Western perception that Iran is being compelled to make strategic concessions in exchange for overcoming internal challenges. Past experience has shown that dealing with the West in this manner, contrary to popular belief, not only fails to bring about an opening but also intensifies the pressure.
The bottom line is that criticizing the recent agreement with the agency does not mean rejecting negotiations in principle, especially considering that sworn enemies of the state are seeking new ways to intensify pressures and sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran. However, it is essential to consider and implement appropriate arrangements and measures during negotiations to maximize the country’s benefits.
www.ncr-iran.org

Revealed: Iranian Regime’s Apprehension and Desperation for Nuclear Deal - NCRI

A classified document obtained and disclosed by the Iranian dissident group "GhyamSarnegouni" reveals the Iranian regime's apprehension regarding a
www.ncr-iran.org www.ncr-iran.org
 
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Who will succeed Shia Islam’s top man?​


Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, a huge influence in Iraq, may be fading​

“Allah yatawal omru: May God grant him a long life” has long been an Arabic mark of respect for the elderly. But seminarians in Iraq’s shrine city of Najaf have begun reciting it almost obsessively. Ali al-Sistani, the grand ayatollah who is the senior religious figure for the world’s 200m Shias, is 92 and fading.
No one has done more over the years to keep Iraq from collapse or from turning it into an Iranian-style theocracy, though he has used his influence to veto any Iraqi leader of whom he strongly disapproves. Despite his humble way of life, he heads a multinational network worth billions of dollars and presides over the holiest of Shia shrines, visited by millions every year. Seeing no obvious successor, many Shias fear a struggle that could, as an insider puts it, be “messy, complicated and rife with division”.
The Economist today
www.economist.com

Who will succeed Shia Islam’s top man?

Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, a huge influence in Iraq, may be fading
www.economist.com www.economist.com
 
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Norman Roule
@Norman_Roule
It isn't always bad policy to kick a can down the road. But it is disingenuous to claim the can doesn't get heavier with every kick, &that the road isn't shorter with every kick. Such tactics also invite valid criticism by partners & partisan politics. Worst of all, can kickers generally won't admit that - absent a miracle - someone else will have to eventually deal with the can & that actor may not have all the tools present today. We need a bipartisan approach to Iran that respects the valid security interests of our partners.
Click to expand...


U.S. Denies Reports of Cash Offers to Iran for Limited Enrichment Concessions
Elizabeth Robbins
~4 minutes
Latest Developments

Multiple reports this week suggest the United States is offering financial incentives to the Islamic Republic of Iran in exchange for Tehran slowing its production of enriched uranium. On June 7, Haaretz reported that the United States was offering to release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds — currently held by South Korea, Iraq, and the International Monetary Fund — in exchange for Iran limiting further production of high-enriched uranium.

Another report on June 8 by Middle East Eye (MEE) echoed much of Haaretz’s reporting but added that the administration would allow Iran to export an additional one million barrels of oil per day, which would likely require the president to issue a national security waiver. The National Security Council called the MEE report “false and misleading.” However, questions remain about whether an agreement may proceed without official text or notification to Congress, as required under existing law.
Expert Analysis

“The Biden administration hopes that Tehran will be more amenable to a ‘longer and stronger’ deal after getting major nuclear and economic concessions in exchange for a ‘shorter and weaker’ arrangement. This is an illusion. Iranian leaders understand power and leverage better than President Biden and his team do. The emerging ‘less for more’ deal is the worst deal of all.” — Mark Dubowitz, FDD CEO

“The administration may be looking to evade congressional review by trading billions of dollars to Iran in exchange for a temporary halt to higher levels of enrichment, all without a written agreement or public acknowledgment. Paying Iran to sit patiently on the nuclear threshold won’t stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons, but it will subsidize attacks against Americans, Israelis, Ukrainians, and Iranians.” — Richard Goldberg, FDD Senior Advisor
Biden Administration May Sidestep Congress

The Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015 (INARA) requires the president to notify Congress of an agreement or waiver of congressional sanctions on Iran. Congress then has 30 days following notification to review the agreement and potentially vote to reject it.

Given mounting bipartisan political opposition to lifting sanctions on Iran while Tehran provides drones to Russia and cracks down on women and protestors, there is suspicion that the administration is searching for ways to sidestep INARA’s requirements in order to provide economic relief to Iran in exchange for a temporary arrangement on Iran’s enrichment.
Israel Opposes Agreement, Reserves Right to Defend Itself

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke by phone on June 8. According to a statement from the prime minister’s office, Netanyahu told Blinken that Israel’s position remains consistent in that a return to a “nuclear agreement with Iran would not stop the Iranian nuclear program and that no arrangement with Iran will obligate Israel, which will do everything to defend itself.”
Related Analysis

“Iran’s Nuclear Violations to Test Resolve of IAEA Board of Governors,” FDD Flash Brief

“Biden’s Renewed Push for Iran Deal May Help Russia in Ukraine,” FDD Flash Brief

“Iran Needs an Ultimatum, Not a New Deal,” by Richard Goldberg and Andrea Stricker

Subscribe to FDD Flash Briefs
www.fdd.org

U.S. Denies Reports of Cash Offers to Iran for Limited Enrichment Concessions

Multiple reports this week suggest the United States is offering financial incentives to the Islamic Republic of Iran in exchange for Tehran slowing its production of enriched uranium. On June 7, Haaretz...
www.fdd.org www.fdd.org
 
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:hmm:

EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3

Iranian National Security Committee: We informed Washington that the success of the negotiations depends on meeting our demands.
 
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Jason Brodsky
@JasonMBrodsky

"Unwritten agreements" may also be subject to INARA. Check out the broad language of "regardless of the form it takes." Your weekly reminder, there has not been a public congressional oversight hearing on #Iran policy in over a year. HFAC has not held even one since Biden became president.
iranintl.com

Unwritten Agreement, New Mode Of Iran-US Deal, Says Politician

A former senior Iranian lawmaker says Tehran and Washington have agreed to a non-written deal giving Iran some sanctions relief but capping its nuclear program.
iranintl.com iranintl.com
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1668418420386283520
View: https://twitter.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/1668418420386283520?s=20
 
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Critical Threats
@criticalthreats

NEW | Iranian officials are promoting reports of resumed nuclear negotiations with the United States likely to generate short-term benefits for the Iranian economy. Read today's Iran Update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar
: Iran Update, June 12, 2023
1/2
Iranian security forces are attempting to discourage citizens from holding commemoration ceremonies for killed Mahsa Amini protesters. Security forces’ renewed violence against innocent citizens could revive anti-regime protests. 2/2
 
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NCRI-FAC
@iran_policy
7m

NCRI Statement: Escalating Executions Ordered by Khamenei: 6 Executions on Sunday and 59 Executions in 3 Weeks
 
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Feeling isolated, Israel is issuing almost daily warnings of an attack over Iran’s nuclear program


Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has twice nearly attacked Iran. Now there are almost daily Israeli warnings of a strike over Tehran’s nuclear program.

Trying to decipher the seriousness of the threat is always hard as Israel’s long-standing policy has been to try and intimidate Iran into reining in its suspected nuclear weapons ambitions.

Key Reading:
As Iran Emerges From Isolation, Israel Is Feeling Cornered
Iran and Saudi Plot Path to End Rivalry That Drove Regional Wars
Iran Steps Up IAEA Cooperation Even as Uranium Stockpile Surges
Hedge Funders Drive Protests in Battle Over Israeli High Court

While Iran maintains its program is for purely peaceful purposes, it’s been enriching uranium close to weapons grade.

What’s troubling for Israel’s closest ally, the US, and oil-rich Persian Gulf states, is that the Israelis are feeling increasingly vulnerable. That’s also an issue for vital shipping lines that could end up in the firing-line of any Iranian retaliation.

Iran has meanwhile been bolstered by a new military alliance with Russia and a Chinese-brokered entente with arch-rival Saudi Arabia. Its regional allies Hezbollah and Hamas have stepped up their targeting of Israel.
Iran's 20% Enriched Uranium Stockpile

Stockpile up since US left deal, Iran curtailed monitoring

Source: IAEA data compiled by Bloomberg

As former White House Middle East envoy Dennis Ross says, Iran is hardening its defenses, meaning Israel’s window to attack may be closing. “They will never allow themselves to lose the option. You don’t wait until it is one minute to midnight.”

While the Joe Biden administration is focused on a diplomatic solution, Netanyahu dismisses such efforts as naïve.

At the same time, Netanyahu’s hardline government has sparked unprecedented domestic strife through its bid to overhaul the judiciary, weakening the nation’s unity.

Some Israeli officials worry their military capability alone isn’t enough to deliver a decisive strike and the blowback would mean a massive onslaught of missiles against Israel’s cities.

It all makes calculating the outcome of what Israel sees as an existential threat from Iran deeply unpredictable.


 
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Amichai Stein
@AmichaiStein1

¹ Iran-US nuclear talks: Assessment in Israel: The Biden administration's has made a decision to go for an agreement. "The chance of changing their minds is slim - if at all." - Now we are waiting for the Iranians' answer
² The Iran-US agreement is expected to be a memorandum of understanding. Not an agreement or a signed document. Israel PM Netanyahu said to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee: It is a kind of mini-agreement, a series of understandings.
 
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Iran International English
@IranIntl_En
19m

Iran and the US are close to finalizing a deal on the release of Americans held in Tehran, Oman’s foreign minister told @AlMonitor, adding that he senses “seriousness” on the part of both the US and Iran.
“I can say they’re close. This is probably a question of technicalities.”

Albusaidi said Wednesday there is a "positive atmosphere" surrounding the nuclear issue, adding that Muscat believes Iran’s leadership is serious about reaching an agreement.
“As long as the other side also reciprocates in good faith, they're willing to do this,” he said.

A spokesperson for the Iranian mission to the United Nations also told @AlMonitor, "This round of the prisoner exchange has been on the agenda for more than two years and we are now, more than ever, closer to reaching an agreement."
 
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Jason Brodsky
@JasonMBrodsky
9m

Another bad headline for UK on #Iran: refusal to proscribe #IRGCterrorists; Khamenei having office space for years while regime took hostages & plotted terror; & now UK scientists helping Iran develop “game-changing” swarming drone technology.

 
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Iran International English
@IranIntl_En

#BREAKING Iran and Egypt have reached a tentative agreement on the formation of a joint committee to restore relations after decades of hiatus, @AlArabiya reported, citing informed sources.

3:11 PM · Jun 16, 2023
9,652
Views
 
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40th Infantry Division Soldiers Mobilize to Middle East​


By Pfc. William Espinosa, 69th Public Affairs Detachment


JOINT FORCES TRAINING BASE LOS ALAMITOS, Calif. - The California National Guard’s 40th Infantry Division held a historical deployment ceremony before mobilizing to support Operation Spartan Shield and Operation Inherent Resolve, missions to build partner capacity and increase regional security in the Middle East.
The 40th ID has not deployed as a division since the Korean War in January 1952. The division fought valiantly through four campaigns and continues to keep close ties with the Korean community and Korean War veterans.
Today, the Sunburst Division will deploy Soldiers across the Middle East, including Iraq, Jordan and Kuwait.
Division Soldiers spent the past year preparing for the deployment with annual trainings and warfighter exercises.
“This deployment will test, though, our capabilities … but I can attest to all of you that this division headquarters, the Sunburst Division, is up for the challenge,” said Maj. Gen. Michael Leeney, commander of the 40th ID.
This will be the first deployment for many young Soldiers such as Pfc. Bryson Brown, a signal support specialist.
“I’m excited to earn my [deployment] patch,” Brown said. “I am already proud of this uniform, but this patch will put me a step above most Soldiers.”
For others — senior officers and enlisted — the deployment presents new opportunities.
”I think every mission within the military gives an opportunity to grow,” says Capt. Fernando Ruelas. “I am now an older officer, and I am able to see the bigger picture as opposed to my previous deployments. Now I’ll have a greater responsibility.”
Senior leaders of the Cal Guard, Rep. Michelle Steel with the 45th Congressional District and state Sen. Bob Archuleta attended the departure ceremony, along with friends and families of the Soldiers.
During the ceremony, Maj. Gen. Matthew P. Beevers, the adjutant general of the Cal Guard, encouraged the deploying Soldiers.
“You are the California National Guard, and you will bring uniquely California values to the region. Values of tolerance and values of treating everybody with dignity and respect,” said Beevers.
 
jward

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passin' thru
much more at the thread if interested.

Dr Kylie Moore-Gilbert
@KMooreGilbert

By many accounts a new cash-for-hostages deal is underway between Iran & the US. I'm very torn about this. It's a travesty that Emad, Siamak & Morad have languished so long behind bars as innocent men and their release must be an absolute priority for the Biden administration
8:14 PM · Jun 21, 2023
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1,045
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IANS
@ians_india

#Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani has said that he had a meeting with Enrique Mora, the #EuropeanUnion's deputy foreign policy chief, to discuss the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal.

Bagheri Kani, the chief negotiator for the nuclear talks, said on Wednesday in a tweet that the meeting took place in #Qatar, describing it as "serious and constructive".

But he did not reveal the exact timing of the meeting, Xinhua news agency reported.
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm......

Posted for fair use.....
www.yahoo.com

Was raid on Iran opposition group tied to possible new Biden-Tehran nuclear talks?

As the Biden administration reportedly inches closer to a controversial "mini-agreement" with Iran, some in Congress have expressed concerns about such a nuclear deal.
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com

Was raid on Iran opposition group tied to possible new Biden-Tehran nuclear talks?​

Benjamin Weinthal
Sun, June 25, 2023 at 6:00 AM PDT·8 min read
23 Comments

The Albanian government’s raid of a camp run by the exiled Iranian opposition group Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MEK) has led to criticism against the White House and Albania for allegedly placating the Islamic Republic of Iran – the world’s top state sponsor of terrorism.

When asked about the Albania state raid, former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Fox News Digital, "By providing sanctions relief to the Iranian regime, President Biden and Rob Malley are abandoning the Iranian people and enriching their oppressors. The regime is committed to crushing its own people while spreading terror and mayhem abroad, and the Biden administration's blind desire to appease and negotiate with it has made the world a more dangerous place." Pompeo visited the MEK headquarters last year.

Robert Malley, who is the U.S. special envoy to Iran, is seen by some Iran commentators as a highly controversial diplomat because of his efforts to offer Iran’s regime significant financial concessions in order to reach a nuclear agreement with Tehran. Critics term Malley’s posture toward Iran appeasement politics.

Congressional representatives in the Senate and House have expressed alarm about the Albanian government’s violent raid of the MEK camp.

IRANIAN PRESIDENT HACKED AS GROUP CLAIMS DATA SHOWS EXPANDED SECURITY AROUND NUCLEAR SITE

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas., tweeted: "Deeply concerned that across Europe – and especially right now, France and Albania – our allies are appeasing the Iranian regime and cracking down on anti-regime dissidents."

READ ON THE FOX NEWS APP

Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, D-Texas., also condemned the raid in a series of tweets.

When asked about the Albanian raid on the MEK and whether the Biden administration is going soft on Iran’s regime to secure a mini-nuclear deal with Tehran, a U.S. State Department spokesperson told Fox News Digital, "We understand that on June 20 the Albanian State Police entered the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MEK) compound in Durres, Albania to execute a court order. "

The U.S. State spokesperson added, "The Albanian State Police have assured us that all actions were conducted in accordance with applicable laws, including with regard to the protection of the rights and freedoms of all persons in Albania. We support the Government of Albania’s right to investigate any potential illegal activities within its territory."

Rep. Cory Mills, R-Fla., who sits on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told Fox News Digital, "It is deeply concerning that Albanian officials are obfuscating truth in this situation by denying the presence of violence. These assertions only deepen impressions that there was wrongdoing on the part of law enforcement involved in this raid. I urge the Biden administration to evaluate this situation and not sacrifice justice as the result of any backroom negotiations taking place with Iran."

IRAN EXPANDING INFLUENCE 'WITH IMPUNITY' IN AMERICA'S BACKYARD, CONGRESSWOMAN SAYS

Albania’s embassy in Washington, D.C., wrote Fox News Digital, "We cannot tolerate that our territory be used to engage in illegal, subversive and political activity against other countries, as has allegedly been the case with the MEK."

The Albanian embassy said, "Pepper spray was only used in a number of limited cases in order to control the volatile situation, but at no point during the search operation physical force was used by the State Police."

According to critics of the White House’s Iran policy, the Biden administration is going to great lengths to secure a short-term agreement with Iran that would provide at least $17 billion to the mullah regime in exchange for temporary restrictions on Tehran’s alleged illicit nuclear weapons program.

United Against Nuclear Iran's (UANI) chairman, former Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman, and CEO, Ambassador Mark D. Wallace, said on Friday, "The press reports about an ‘understanding’ between the Islamic Republic and the United States over the nuclear file are concerning because they risk legitimizing its enrichment at 60% purity, even if the product is downblended, which has no credible civilian justification."

Lieberman and Wallace added, "This represents a collapse of the international negotiating position on Iran’s nuclear program, which morphed from zero enrichment before 2013 to now tolerating 60% enrichment in 2023. The lack of any consequences to thwart Iran’s nuclear escalation is a vindication of [Iranian regime Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei’s strategy and an indictment of our own."

Former U.S. Secretaries of State, John Kerry and Hillary Clinton, played a key role in the resettlement of the Iranians from Iraq to Albania.

IRAN REGIME CLOSE TO GETTING NUCLEAR BOMB, BUT WHAT'S THE HOLDUP?

A State Department spokesperson told Fox News Digital, "U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate Kerry is focused on climate policy and we would refer you to the comments we've already provided on this issue." A Fox News Digital press query sent to the Clinton Foundation was not returned.

Ali Safavi, a representative of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, whose main member is the MEK, told Fox News Digital "We've seen this movie before, a poorly scripted and cheaply produced spectacle. It features Foggy Bottom's repeated and failed attempts to appease the mullahs’ medieval regime. From the Iran-contra scandal of 1985, to a distorted report in 1994, to misplaced goodwill gestures in 1997, and the ill-advised quid-pro-quo involving the MEK before the Iraq war in 2003, the State Department's narrative remains predictably and tragically the same: unjustly vilifying the Mujahedin-e Khalq to placate the murderous tyrants ruling Iran."

He added, "These futile and unconscionable concessions have yielded no results and will not do so now or in the future. The legitimacy of the MEK does not emanate from the State Department's preposterous proclamations but is instead deeply anchored in its unwavering six-decade-long struggle and the heavy toll it has paid in the quest for freedom in Iran."

The U.S. State Department said it "continues to have serious concerns about the MEK as an organization, including allegations of abuse committed against its own members." The State Department added that the White House does not consider the MEK "a viable democratic opposition movement that is representative of the Iranian people."

Sali Berisha, the former prime minister of Albania (2005-2013) who is currently an MP for the conservative Democratic Party of Albania, told Fox News Digital there was "no doubt" that the raid was an effort to appease the Iranian regime.

"I asked in Parliament that the Interior Minister [Bledi Cuci] should resign because a man was killed and 100 people were injured, "said Berisha, who also served as the country's president in 1990s.

WEST CAN'T STOP IRAN FROM GETTING NUKES, IRAN SUPREME LEADER SAYS

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken sanctioned Berisha in 2021 due to alleged "involvement in significant corruption." Blinken has barred the former prime minister from entering the U.S. Berisha has flatly denied the accusation of corruption and declared the false information leveled against him stems from the controversial billionaire investor, George Soros and the current prime minister of Albania, Edi Rama.

Former Congressman Lee Zeldin, R-N.Y., accused the Biden administration of punishing Berisha because he is an ally of the Republicans and opposes the ultra-liberal Soros.

Iran celebrated Albania’s raid of the MEK camp. According to a report in the Tasnim News Agency, "What happened in Albania was actually the result of the power of diplomacy of the Islamic Republic of Iran and a collection of actions by different institutions."

Tasnim is affiliated with the U.S.-sanctioned terrorist organization, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The news organization, Kayhan, which is the mouthpiece for the supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, said, "The events of Tuesday in France and Albania should be clearly seen as the exemplary prowess of the Islamic Republic and the desperation of the West in its 44-year effort to confront Iran. "

The raid on the MEK camp coincides with the French government canceling a NCRI rally in July and the Belgian government releasing a convicted Iranian diplomat for a planned mass murder bombing of an MEK conference, in exchange for a kidnapped Belgian aid worker held in Iran.

The U.S. added the MEK to its terrorist list in 1997 due to its reported killing of Americans in Iran in 1970s. But by 2012 the State Department removed them from its terror list because the group renounced violence. An NCRI spokesperson told Fox News Digital that the group rejected out of hand any involvement in killing American citizens.

The group, sworn enemy of the Iranian regime, left its camp in Iraq in 2013 under a U.N.-U.S.-brokered agreement where thousands of its members resettled in Albania.
 
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jward

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passin' thru
Dunno if this is just another day at the office, or a rather interesting escalation...?

Barak Ravid
@BarakRavid
1h

BREAKING: The Mossad claims it has kidnapped and interrogated on Iranian soil an assassin sent by the IRGC intelligence organization to kill an Israeli businessman in Cyprus. The Mossad claims the assassin confessed. Here is a video with part of his alleged interrogation:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1674450217825890304
View: https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1674450217825890304?s=20
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
jward said:
Dunno if this is just another day at the office, or a rather interesting escalation...?

Barak Ravid
@BarakRavid
1h

BREAKING: The Mossad claims it has kidnapped and interrogated on Iranian soil an assassin sent by the IRGC intelligence organization to kill an Israeli businessman in Cyprus. The Mossad claims the assassin confessed. Here is a video with part of his alleged interrogation:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1674450217825890304
View: https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1674450217825890304?s=20
Click to expand...

If they can do that then no one is safe within the Iranian government......It is thus as big or a bigger deal than the prior "events" on Iranian soil.
 
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IntelSky
@Intel_Sky
·
6m
Iranian Foreign Minister via Twitter: We have suspended the Iranian ambassador's visit to Sweden because its government issued a license to insult the Holy Quran.
 
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Arming the West Bank: A Look at Iran’s New Israel Strategy​


by Amir Hossein Vazirian​

The conflict between Iran and Israel has substantially intensified over recent years, with its scope broadening daily. Israel’s worries about Iran’s nuclear ambitions, regional influence, and military advancements have positioned it as a key player in responding to these perceived threats. As such, with the aim of strengthening deterrence against Iran, Jerusalem has designed a strategy of death by a thousand cuts, which includes intensifying covert operations against Iranian interests.

Unlike its previous strategy, which focused on sabotaging Tehran’s nuclear program and assassinating its nuclear scientists, Israel now appears to have extended its web to target other scientists and officers in charge of missile and drone programs, as well as members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Quds Force. Additionally, Jerusalem is utilizing its diplomatic capacities to further operationalize this strategy of “death by a thousand cuts” by expanding its relations with Iran’s neighboring states—especially those that do not have good relations with Iran. Strengthening relations with Azerbaijan and the Kurdistan Region, normalizing relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, and reopening its embassy in Turkmenistan are among its actions in this regard.

Given all this, what has Iran done? It seems that Iran’s response to Israel’s actions can be evaluated in the framework of two short-term and long-term approaches. Tehran’s short-term approach to Jerusalem’s actions has mainly included a case-by-case response, including targeting positions and assets related to Israel in the sea or a third country. In this regard, drone attacks on Israeli ships in the Persian Gulf and missile attacks on the Mossad headquarters in Erbil have been carried out. In addition, Iran’s long-term policy toward Israel has always been based on creating a defensive front in the Eastern Mediterranean. By propping up Palestinian groups such as Hamas and the Islamic Jihad Movement alongside Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Iran has endeavored to turn Lebanon and the Gaza Strip into defense embankments against Israel.

How Iran’s West Bank Strategy Came to Be
The term “Arming the West Bank” was raised for the first time in the middle of the 2014 Gaza War. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that he considered the only way to rescue Palestine was by “arming the West Bank like Gaza.”
A month after the end of the conflict, the notion was raised again in Khamenei’s meeting with Ramadan Abdullah, the former secretary-general of the Islamic Jihad Movement. In this meeting, Khamenei stressed the need for “serious planning to join the West Bank in confronting Israel” with the aim of increasing Israel’s security concerns.
These statements were welcomed by Palestinian militant groups. Among others, Khaled Qaddoumi, Hamas’s representative in Tehran, considered this approach to be a serious and important option for resistance groups in Palestine—if supported by Iran, they could change the balance of power in what Palestinians see as the occupied territories.

In Iran’s view, this approach stands out because of how vulnerable Israel is to it. Not only is the West Bank relatively close to Israel’s three key cities and military-economic centers—Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and Haifa—but also the presence of Jewish settlers and more than two million Palestinians provides a rich environment for Iran to open a new front. Unlike Iran’s other deterrence measures, arming the West Bank would inflict more deadly blows on Israel by reducing the geographical distance as much as possible. The approach could paralyze Israel’s security system and blockade Israel within its own borders by expanding the geography of the conflict.

How Would the Strategy Be Implemented?
Iran has plenty of options on the table to pursue this approach: it can transfer small arms and light weapons through non-state allied intermediaries, provide training to facilitate the production of light weapons inside the West Bank itself, finance the purchasing of weapons from arms dealers, and more.
Tehran, however, faces a few obstacles in attempting to pursue this strategy. The borders of the West Bank, for one, are strongly patrolled by Israel and Jordan, impeding any easy arms shipments. Similarly, the Palestinian National Authority will not look kindly upon the arming of its domestic political rivals and the potential diplomatic damage that this could result in.

On the other hand, Iran was seriously involved in Syria and Iraq and had focused on defeating Saudi Arabia in regional conflicts. Despite these obstacles, some reports show that at the same time, Qassem Soleimani, the late commander of the Quds Force, in contact with the commanders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, emphasized the arming of the West Bank as Iran’s priority in the occupied territories. Also, while many experts were talking about the impossibility of this strategy due to many hurdles, former Iranian diplomat Hussein Sheikh al-Islam rejected this issue and said: “We know how to deliver weapons to the West Bank. We have already delivered weapons to other fronts.”
As some news sources, quoting Israeli security officials, have revealed, Lebanese Hezbollah, the main non-state ally of the Islamic Republic of Iran, has transferred light weapons to the West Bank. In addition, the smuggling of arms through dealers or other people to the West Bank has grown significantly in recent years. The latest example in this regard was the arrest of Imad al-Adwan, a Jordanian lawmaker, by Israeli police on charges of trying to smuggle weapons to the West Bank.

The idea of negotiating with Israel has faded among the Palestinians for various reasons (such as the continuation of settlements, the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel by Donald Trump, and the inauguration of the most right-wing government in Israel). In return, they have turned to individual armed struggle, which has gained unprecedented popularity among the young generation of Palestine, especially after the intensification of arms smuggling to the West Bank.

The emergence of new armed groups in the West Bank, such as the Jenin Brigade, the Balata Brigade, and, most notoriously, the Lions’ Den, shows a change in approach in this region. In the past two years, the beginning of a new round of conflicts in Nablus, Jenin, and Sheikh Jarrah and numerous attacks against checkpoints, soldiers, and Israeli settlements have led some analysts to consider the continuation of this situation as the beginning of the Third Intifada. Iran openly supported the actions of armed groups in the West Bank. Esmail Qaani, the commander of the Quds Force, praised the Palestinian youth of the West Bank and said: “Before the West Bank was armed, few actions were taken against Israel in this area, but today, in some days, more than 30 operations are conducted.” Ramzan Sharif, the spokesman of the IRGC, also announced that these groups are fully supported by Iran.
From a macro perspective, it seems that Iran is pursuing two strategic objectives via its policy of arming the West Bank: the unity of Palestinian groups in confronting Israel and the addition of a new front in the battle with Israel. The importance of unity among the Palestinian groups lies in the fact that after the end of the Second Intifada, the West Bank was out of the conflict with Israel, and the armed groups were active only in the Gaza Strip. In the current situation, the unification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip can lead to the formation of a joint command structure in order to coordinate information and operations between Palestinian groups under the supervision of Iran and Hezbollah. This happened for the first time in the war of 2021, known as Saif al-Quds.

Also, the gradual expansion of West Bank arming will increase Iran’s capabilities in any possible action against Israel. Especially if the pursuit of this policy is accompanied by the transfer of more advanced weapons such as rockets, mortars, and short-range missiles. In this case, Israel can be attacked from at least three fronts: southern Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, and the West Bank. As it stands, it seems that the third decade of the twenty-first century in the Middle East should be called the era of intensification of the Cold War between Tehran and Jerusalem and the confrontation between the two strategies: Arming the West Bank and death by a thousand cuts. Especially after the normalization of Iran’s relations with Saudi Arabia and speculation about the continuation of de-escalation with Arab neighbors, Iran’s capacity to focus on confronting Israel will increase.
Dr. Amir Hossein Vazirian holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Tarbiat Modares University in Tehran, Iran. His research interests are primarily focused on Iran’s foreign and security policy and Middle East Studies.
Image: Shutterstock.

nationalinterest.org

Arming the West Bank: A Look at Iran’s New Israel Strategy

The gradual expansion of West Bank arming will increase Iran’s capabilities in any possible action against Israel.
nationalinterest.org nationalinterest.org
 
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UK, France, Germany to breach Iran nuclear deal over drone supplies to Russia: Report​


Al Arabiya English​


For the first time, the European signatories to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the UK, France, and Germany are preparing to breach the accord, by refusing to lift sanctions on Tehran's missile usage in October as initially specified in the agreement, the Guardian reported on Sunday.
While Former President Donald Trump took the US out of the nuclear deal in 2018 and reinstated wide-ranging sanctions against Tehran’s regime; the UK, Germany and France remained within the deal, despite the fact that Iran responded to Washington’s action by violating the terms of the agreement, increasing its quantities of uranium and enriching it to extremely high levels.
This breach by European nations introduces uncertainties, as Tehran's response is unpredictable, particularly considering their near capacity to produce weapons-grade enriched uranium.

European Union and UK diplomats justified this action by citing Iran's violation of the deal (technically referred to as the JCPOA), including its drone sales to Russia for use in its war against Ukraine. Russia has been attacking vital infrastructure in Ukraine since October using drones supplied by Iran. The Iranian Shahed-136 drones are known as “kamikaze” UAVs which explode on impact. The Eruopean diplomats also cited the potential future export of Iran's ballistic missiles to Russia.

In June, UN's nuclear weapons inspection (IAEA) chief, Rafael Grossi stated that Iran had not implemented its nuclear-related commitments under the JCPOA since February 2021. And that its stockpile of enriched uranium has risen by over a quarter in three months. “The inventory of enriched uranium is growing at a very fast pace, and the activities are also growing,” Grossi said.
IAEA reported in June that Iran has accumulated 114.1 kilograms of 60-percent enriched uranium—more than quadruple the amount that the IAEA considers a “significant quantity” of highly enriched uranium needed to produce a single compact nuclear explosive. Iran’s total stockpile of enriched uranium is over 14 times the permitted limit of JCPOA. Iran could enrich one bomb’s worth of weapons-grade uranium in 12 days and eight bombs’ worth in three months given its current stockpile and number of operating advanced centrifuges, Washington-based think tank Institute of Study of War (ISW) said in an assessment.

In the original text of the 2015 nuclear deal, several “sunset clause” dates were outlined, signaling when the West should lift specific sanctions. However, the breadth of the agreement's violations was not anticipated in 2015. Since an integral part of the deal was for Iran to cap enrichment at 3.67 percent, however, it has been enriching at 60 percent.
The European sanctions are scheduled to expire on October 18. However, those sanctions had banned Iran from developing nuclear-capable ballistic missiles and prohibited the buying, selling, or transferring of drones capable of flying beyond 300km to or from Iran without the UN’s authorization.
Read more:
EU’s Von der Leyen backs listing Iran’s IRGC as a terrorist group
European Parliament urges EU to list Iran’s IRGC as terrorist group
EU expected to sanction Iran’s IRGC entities over drones sent to Russia soon: Report

english.alarabiya.net

UK, France, Germany to breach Iran nuclear deal over drone supplies to Russia: Report

For the first time, the European signatories to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the UK, France, and Germany are preparing to breach the accord, by refusing to
english.alarabiya.net english.alarabiya.net
 
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Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

US Navy Thwarts Iranian Attempt To Seize 2 Oil Tankers After Shots Fired | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

US Navy Thwarts Iranian Attempt To Seize 2 Oil Tankers, Shots Fired​


BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, JUL 05, 2023 - 10:15 AM
The US Navy's Fifth Fleet has announced that early Wednesday Iranian naval vessels attempted to seize two oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, which included firing shots at one of them.

The US Navy said it responded and prevented the seizures. "The Iranian navy did make attempts to seize commercial tankers lawfully transiting international waters," Cmdr. Tim Hawkins, spokesman for the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, confirmed in a statement. "The U.S. Navy responded immediately and prevented those seizures."




It was only the second tanker which was fired upon during the incident, leaving no casualties or major damage.

The Associated Press described the tanker which was fired upon as US managed, though Bahamas-flagged and Greek-owned:

Ambrey, a maritime intelligence service, said the tanker that was fired upon was a Bahamas-flagged, Greek-owned, U.S. managed crude oil tanker transiting from the United Arab Emirates to Singapore. It said the firing of shots happened 28 nautical miles northeast of Muscat, the capital of Oman.
Click to expand...
The US Navy has further described that in total Iran seized at least five commercial vessels over the course of the last two years, and in addition there's been several harassment incidents of foreign ships reported.

In April, elite Iranian commandos raided a US-bound oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman, swooping in on a helicopter. That tanker was Chinese-owned, and bound for Houston. But Tehran has sought to justify its actions by citing recent instances of Washington seizing its own oil on the high seas.

Currently, there's a move in US Congress to toughen US action against Iranian 'illegal' crude exports:

Several US senators backed the Biden administration's move to seize Iranian oil tankers at Panama Canal, calling for more measures to stop export of Iran’s crude.
Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) told Iran International’s Arash Aalaei he "applauds" the seizure and he "hopes they'll have many more."
He added that this is a message to Iranians warning them that they cannot ultimately divert their oil and violate embargoes imposed on their oil trade. Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) told us that he supports the Biden administration's seizure of Suez Rajan tanker carrying Iranian crude oil, lauding it as "a very strong move."
Click to expand...



The Senator added: "Iranian aggression in many ways, including supplying drones to Russia to facilitate an illegal war in Ukraine, the behavior of Iran both to its own people and beyond the borders, is getting worse and worse and worse."
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Oops, sorry, never occurred to me that you'd have posted a similar article here on this thread, and didn't pop up in the search for the one I'd posted.
...i'd put it on main w/o double checking here, for those always suggesting that they can't find stories when they're in the anthology threads.
Plain Jane said:

US Navy Thwarts Iranian Attempt To Seize 2 Oil Tankers After Shots Fired | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

US Navy Thwarts Iranian Attempt To Seize 2 Oil Tankers, Shots Fired​


BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, JUL 05, 2023 - 10:15 AM
The US Navy's Fifth Fleet has announced that early Wednesday Iranian naval vessels attempted to seize two oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, which included firing shots at one of them.

The US Navy said it responded and prevented the seizures. "The Iranian navy did make attempts to seize commercial tankers lawfully transiting international waters," Cmdr. Tim Hawkins, spokesman for the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, confirmed in a statement. "The U.S. Navy responded immediately and prevented those seizures."




It was only the second tanker which was fired upon during the incident, leaving no casualties or major damage.

The Associated Press described the tanker which was fired upon as US managed, though Bahamas-flagged and Greek-owned:


The US Navy has further described that in total Iran seized at least five commercial vessels over the course of the last two years, and in addition there's been several harassment incidents of foreign ships reported.

In April, elite Iranian commandos raided a US-bound oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman, swooping in on a helicopter. That tanker was Chinese-owned, and bound for Houston. But Tehran has sought to justify its actions by citing recent instances of Washington seizing its own oil on the high seas.

Currently, there's a move in US Congress to toughen US action against Iranian 'illegal' crude exports:





The Senator added: "Iranian aggression in many ways, including supplying drones to Russia to facilitate an illegal war in Ukraine, the behavior of Iran both to its own people and beyond the borders, is getting worse and worse and worse."
Click to expand...
 
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passin' thru
UK, Canada, Sweden, Ukraine Sue Iran at Top UN Court
1–2 minutes

The United Kingdom, Canada, Sweden, and Ukraine have launched a case against Iran at the United Nations' highest court over the downing in 2020 of a Ukrainian passenger jet and the deaths of all 176 passengers and crew.

The countries want the International Court of Justice to rule that Iran illegally shot down Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752 on Jan. 8, 2020, and order Tehran to apologize and pay compensation to the families of the victims.

Those killed included nationals and residents of Canada, Sweden, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom, as well as Afghanistan and Iran. Their ages ranged from 1 year to 74 years old.
 
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