GOV/MIL Main "Great Reset" Thread

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Ep. 2955a - Countries Move Away From The Federal Reserve Note, The People Reject Omnibus 18:36 min (starts at 1:42 min

Ep. 2955a - Countries Move Away From The Federal Reserve Note, The People Reject Omnibus​

X22 Report Published December 22, 2022

Homes sales are plunging, the economy is hitting the point where everything is going to start shifting.The Senate passed the Omnibus bill and now it goes to the House. Elon ran a poll on Twitter and the people are against the Omnibus Bill. Countries begin to move away from the Federal Reserve Note.

^^^^^
Ep. 2955b - Scavino Sends Message, FBI Panics, Trump Counters The [DS] 48:12 min (starts at 1:38 min)

Ep. 2955b - Scavino Sends Message, FBI Panics, Trump Counters The [DS]​

X22 Report Published December 22, 2022

The FBI is panicking over the information that is being released by Twitter. The FBI wants everyone to ignore the information and if you believe it you are a Conspiracy Theorist. Scavino sends message, heart attacks can be deadly. Trump counters the [DS] with messages, every time the Biden [DS] push their agenda, Trump gives a solution to the problem they are causing.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Confronting a Naked Emperor​

Eulogy for a child of my mind​

https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0eb501a5-9fd2-4174-9231-6d6a73139db9_400x400.jpeg

Robert W Malone MD, MS

7 hr ago

https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8efeb303-2b80-4538-9c18-fc1572daa348_1340x842.png


It is a cold, gray, rainy day today here in Virginia along the base of the Shenandoah National Park. Winter is upon us. Somehow we need to blanket the pregnant mares, as the next few days are going to really get cold, and one should never blanket a wet horse.

Yesterday was constant interviews and podcasts from 7:00 AM to 11:00 PM, with hardly a moment to catch a bite to eat or make yet another cup of strong coffee. I am still waiting for my luggage to make it back from Zurich, and the space under the tree remains barren - no time to shop to presents. Am I whining? Well, maybe just a bit. But if you think that traveling about 400,000 commercial air miles in one year is your idea of a good time, then please, by all means, have at it.

The events of the last year stretch out in my consciousness, blurring into a fog of constant travel, discussions, speeches, testimony, presentations, controversy, propaganda, and published attacks from all sides. For me, 2022 launched with the Joe Rogan podcast (#1757) and all of the controversy that event generated, and now the year is ending with a flood of data from all over the world which validates pretty much every single thing (and more!) that I had discussed back then, so long ago it seems a different age. Between Tucker Carlson’s reveal concerning the role of the CIA in the Dallas, TX assassination of President John F. Kennedy and disclosure of the “Twitter Files”, the curtain is drawing to a close on 2022. In my mind, these two disclosures are bookends, the first involving one of my first memories as a five year old child, the second documenting a current profound evil which I have sensed and personally experienced but have been unable to confirm.

Both events have revealed to those able to see that the intelligence and security arms of the US Imperial Administrative State have become enemies of the US Constitution which they were designed and sworn to protect. Step by step, day by day, the country and limited federal government system which our forefathers have bequeathed to us has been transformed into a massive totalitarian security state which strives to rule both the physical world and the inner world of our minds.

Yeats’ “Second Coming” seems most appropriate for summarizing the arc of this most disappointing of years. The cognitive dissonance is almost overwhelming, and yet we must somehow come to terms with the profound widespread loss of integrity which has become a defining characteristic of both US and global governance (not to mention corporate media).

Somehow, we must come to terms with the unfortunate truth that our governments have deployed military-grade propaganda and psychological operations methods (designed for battling foreign adversaries) on their own citizens to shape thought, belief, and reality itself to comport with the interests of the US federal administrative state. The pervasive spying and censorship of the US and other western governments on their own citizens (somehow justified as necessary to “preserve democracy”) has become completely normalized, and few seem willing to even spare a moment to care.

If one confronts the horror of the modern Praetorian guard/”intelligence community” being willing and able to assassinate a US President with impunity, and the decades of subsequent Presidents and CIA directors who have not only been aware of this truth, but have subverted congressional mandates that this truth be disclosed to the American public, then the ground shifts and Yeats’ slouching beast comes into focus. We can now see its form and speak its name: “Leviathan”.



As I look back over the last year, many things weigh on both my mind and soul. The disappointing mid-term elections. The sad truth revealed by Senator Ron Johnson when he speaks of the enormous and seemingly unsurmountable obstacles to holding any “public servants” accountable for their mis-deeds during the COVIDcrisis. The deeper truth that the Washington DC/US Federal and Brussels/EU Governments no longer serve the interests of their citizens, if they ever really have during the 21st century. They have long been captured by financial interests that are invested in a globalist, anti-nationalist “world order”. The profound, pervasive corruption of public health, medicine, and the biomedical scientific research enterprise is just one symptom of the deep and broad rot which is spreading through every aspect of public and private life.

Like with the John F. Kennedy assassination, we avert the eyes of our mind from each of these overwhelming and ever present truths. At a personal level, all the hard work and sacrifice embodied in “my career” has relied on a house of mirrors built upon shifting desert sands. What have I done with my life? What if I had just remained a humble carpenter and farmer, rather than reaching for the skies? The only “real” achievements which withstand the test of time are my marriage and our children. The preservation of shreds of integrity. The fragile legacy of friendships, teaching, and mentoring nurtured and developed over decades.

Then, on a much lower plane, there is this thought-child of my mind, conceived and birthed while I was still a young man. One that both defines me and that I refuse to be defined by.

That the natural biological molecule mRNA could be employed to enable a whole new class of medicines (including vaccines). A completely different approach to enable the power of modern molecular biology to be applied for treating and preventing human disease, particularly childhood disease. Before that stroke of inspiration, captured as a moment in history in the form of an invention disclosure, witnessed and countersigned by the Salk Institute post-doc Dr. Mark Kindy, PhD. (and then in multiple patents), “Gene Therapy” was predicated on the idea that pediatric genetic disease could be treated by permanently correcting a “bad gene” by providing a “good gene” to the cells of a patient. At that time, it was “well known” that the only way this might be accomplished was by coopting the biology of viruses, parasites which have evolved to exist at the boundary between live and dead. The most overt example of Richard Dawkins’ “Selfish Gene”. Agents which have evolved to replicate by injecting their genetic material into the cells (and nuclei) of the hosts (bacterial, plant, insect, animal) which they parasitize.

Jill and I had moved to San Diego (midway through my MD training) so that I could chase the dream of becoming a “gene therapist” physician. We brought with us hopes, dreams, an infant son, a parrot from my childhood named “Chiquita”, deep debts from bootstrapping our education, and not much else. As we had progressed through our education, the underlying culture had shifted from a commitment to collective investment in education of worthy youth as the best way to insure continued national prosperity, to disillusionment in the “welfare state” and the belief that the young should bear the costs of their own education rather than rely on handouts from society. Had I known that this shift was coming, I probably would have remained in the trades rather than seeking higher degrees, but once the decision had been made there was no way to go back. Debt had been accumulated, and debt is a monster which demands to be serviced.

Jill has a better memory for such details than I, and tells the story of my returning to student housing while she was bathing our child, and enthusiastically pouring out the brainstorm that “transient gene therapy” using mRNA could enable new types of genetic medicines and vaccines. This was truly revolutionary. Such a simple idea, but one which could bypass so many of the problems inherent in the idea of permanently altering the genome of people’s cells. Synthetic mRNA could be manufactured, purified, formulated with positively charged fats to form self-assembling particles, and these could slip the manufactured mRNA into cells where it would direct the production of either therapeutic proteins or vaccine antigens. And with that idea, our world was turned upside down. Avarice and greed are powerful forces, and big science (as well as Pharma) is infested with unscrupulous seekers of fame and fortune. I was completely unprepared to deal with what would soon come to pass.

It is often observed that time heals all wounds. That which does not kill you makes you stronger. But, like damaged heart muscle, in my experience these things heal by scarring, and never fully recover. And I suspect that this will also be the fate of my brain-child.

During the decades that followed, in the face of the impossible task of getting funding for addressing the toxicities and other problems inherent in the technology, Jill and I abandoned our research into cationic lipid-based mRNA and DNA delivery technology for advancing mucosal and parenteral vaccines and genetic therapies. We pivoted to the use of “naked” polynucleotide delivery by jet injection or use of pulsed electrical fields, but could never obtain significant academic funding, and turned to the commercial sector. Then the planes hit the towers and the Pentagon, and weaponized anthrax spores (“Amerithrax”) were circulated via the US Postal Service. The commercial investors in “Inovio” pulled back, and out of necessity my career pivoted to the brave new world of biodefense. The Vical mRNA and DNA vaccine patents expired. And then suddenly, out of the blue, DARPA/CIA decided to start investing in the mRNA/Cationic Lipid technology. Attending and chairing a vaccine conference in 2018, I was brought to tears by a senior European pharmaceutical scientist who cited my 1988-1991 contributions to the genesis of the technology, the first public acknowledgment of my early work that I had ever heard.

And then the last three years. As mentioned above, avarice and greed are powerful forces, and big science (as well as Pharma) is infested with unscrupulous seekers of fame and fortune. The use of cationic lipid-formulated synthetic mRNA is touted as a different variation on the second coming. Historic norms for insuring safety, purity, consistency, and effectiveness were disregarded in a mad rush to cash in on this “new discovery”. But the intractable safety problems which Jill and I had encountered during the 1990’s had not been resolved, despite the personal assurances provided to me by FDA’s Dr. Peter Marks, a hematologist oncologist with no training or experience in gene therapy or vaccine development. Billions in profit have been minted. And now all the (official) world hails the new Caesar, the triumphant new mRNA technology, savior from the dreaded SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus.

Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears.
I have come to bury Caesar, not to praise him.
The evil that men do lives after them;
The good is oft interrèd with their bones.

But this new Caesar stands naked before those who have the ability to see.

And in the land of the blind, even a one-eyed man can become king.

I am very sorry to say that the time has come to bury that child of my mind. The good which might have been enabled has been hopelessly distorted by the evil that has been done during these last two years. This technology as rushed to market and deployed to billions of people has, in the current embodiment, been proven neither safe nor effective. Furthermore, it has been exploited to advance agendas which have nothing to do with improving human health. I mourn that the good which might have come to pass will be interred with the bones of the evil purposes to which it has been put.

Those who are not among the vaccinology, virology, and molecular biology anointed illuminati will not understand what that potential might have been, only that this toxic evil was forced upon them, their children, their families and their relatives. And they will not forget.

And the world will continue to turn.

I can only hope that those who naively speak of a transhumanism future in which evolution is bypassed and man/god will assume control of “intelligent” design of himself via genetic modification will come to realize the profound hubris and error of both the recent mistakes and the likelihood of future ones.

Hope springs eternal.

Hope (and fear) is apparently what lead Debora Birx, Rochelle Walensky, and so many other government bureaucrat/physician/scientists to bypass reason and experience in the mad rush to jab these products into every soul that they could coerce.

On this rainy, gray winters day, my hope is that somehow we can find a way for experience to triumph over hope when it comes to messing around with the human genome. And that we can pivot from worshiping the golden calf of technology to just appreciating the gifts of children, family, the earth under our feet, and the communities within which we exist. Those who have a hole in their souls can never gain enough power, fame or wealth to fill that hole.

For the rest of us, my hope is that we can somehow find a way forward so that they will not be able to “shape” our futures and those of our children, and we can be left alone to just live our lives, and to enjoy the human bonds which enrich our daily existence.

Merry Christmas to all

 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Bullish 2023 Cattle outlook​

By GREG HENDERSON December 22, 2022

Cattle prices will be higher in 2023. That’s the consensus of market analysts across the industry.

How those higher prices translate into rancher profitability is yet to be determined. That’s because the current “once-in-a-century” drought is worse than the previous “once-in-a-century” drought producers experienced a decade ago.

“Cattle prices are higher and will continue to trend higher in 2023,” says Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University livestock economist. “At some point, when drought conditions abate, increased heifer retention and reduced cow culling might cause cattle prices to spike sharply higher. The timing is uncertain with ongoing drought and might be more likely in 2024.”

While drought-induced herd reductions will be supportive of prices going forward, consumer demand for beef remains steadfast at a high level.

“Demand for beef, both domestically and in our export markets, was strong throughout 2022 and will continue,” says John Nalivka, president of Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore. “With declining cattle numbers we’re seeing things fall into place for better cattle markets the next couple of years.

Mother nature is key

Yet the question of profitability for ranchers remains largely unanswered as any economic forecast hinges on drought relief. Without a return to more normal levels of precipitation, many cow-calf and stocker operators are stuck in survival mode.

“The key is Mother Nature,” says CattleFax CEO Randy Blach. “We need to see rain in our key grazing areas, and we believe we’ll see a shift from the La Niña weather pattern this spring that will start to moderate the drought. If that happens, it will stop the liquidation of the beef cow herd.”

This is the third year of La Niña, which in its simplest form is a cooling of the equatorial Pacific waters from near the coast of South America westward for thousands of miles. The opposite is El Niño, a warming of roughly those same areas. If the magnitude is strong enough, both events can alter the jet stream patterns in the Northern Hemisphere, which can alter temperatures and precipitation.

Fewer cows, tighter beef supplies
The pandemic-induced backlog in 2020 and the drought-forced liquidation of cow herds across the Central Plains and the West that accelerated through 2021 and 2022 delayed the reduction in beef production and fed cattle slaughter. The result is tighter inventories that will drive significant reductions in beef supplies in the coming years.

Long lines of ranchers hauling cows to market last summer was an indicator of how dire the drought had become. Still, the actual numbers are stunning. Beef cow slaughter in 2022 was roughly 12% higher than 2021, which was 9% higher than 2020. The beef cow culling rate, according to USDA, was record high at 13%.

The result, analysts project, will be a decline of 1 million beef cows in the Jan. 1, 2023, inventory numbers USDA will release later this month. The U.S. beef cow herd will total about 29.1 million head, down 3.3% from last year and about even with the previous drought-induced low in 2014.

“From 2011 to 2013 the drought, beginning in the Southwest and moving to the Midwest, pushed the beef cow inventory in 2014 to its lowest level since 1952. We have matched that decline during this drought,” Nalivka says.

Charts


Cow liquidation, however, is not complete and analysts project the national herd could decline another 300,000 next year and 200,000 head more by 2025.

“The effects of this drought will linger for ranchers even if they see relief this spring,” Nalivka says. “The drought forced herd culling, sure, but it also drove hay and feed prices higher at a time when inflation was pushing fuel and other costs higher. I believe this drought has been more impactful than the previous one.”

Nalivka projects the total U.S. cattle inventory on Jan. 1, 2023, at 89.08 million head, a decline of 3.1% and the first time the total has dropped under 90 million since 2015. He further estimates the total number of feeder cattle outside of feedlots to decline 4% on Jan. 1, which is roughly 1 million fewer head.

Despite tightening supplies, feedyard inventories have remained near capacity the past three years. That will change with inventories expected to fall below year-ago levels throughout 2023. Fewer cattle on feed will lead to reduced beef production.

“Beef production will decline in 2023, but the magnitude is uncertain,” Peel explains. “The smallest decline is expected in the range of 3% to 4%, but it could be as much as 7% to 8%. The difference will depend on cattle slaughter, which in turn, will depend on drought conditions.”

If drought conditions moderate this year, cattle slaughter and beef production could drop substantially. A return to more normal rainfall could even trigger some level of herd expansion, further tightening feeder supplies and driving prices even higher.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

USDA Raises Food Price Outlook for 2023​

By PRO FARMER EDITORS December 22, 2022

USDA held its 2022 food price inflation outlook steady this month, keeping the increases at 9.5% to 10.5% for all foods, 11% to 12% for food-at-home (grocery store) prices and 7% to 8% for food-away-from-home (restaurant) prices. But USDA made revisions within the food categories used for grocery prices, including lowering the outlook for poultry to an increase of 14% to 15% (14.5% to 15.5% prior) and for vegoils to 18% to 19% (18.5% to 19.5% prior), cereal and bakery products to an increase of 12.5% to 13.5% (13% to 14% prior) and for other food to a rise of 12% to 13% (12.5% to 13.5% prior). USDA raised its egg price outlook due to the ongoing highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) situation, with prices now forecast to climb 30.5% to 31.5%.

For 2023, all food prices are predicted to increase between 3.5% and 4.5% (up from 3.0% to 4.0% in November), food-at-home prices are expected to rise between 3.0% and 4.0% (up from 2.5% to 3.5% previously) and food-away-from-home prices are forecast to climb between 4.0% and 5.0% (unchanged). USDA made several increases in 2023 food categories.

The ongoing HPAI situation has USDA also raising its forecast for 2023 egg prices, now putting the expected rise at 4% to 5% versus an outlook for 2% to 3% in November. That marks a sizable rise from USDA’s initial outlook for 2023, which was for egg prices to be unchanged — down 0.5% to up 0.5%. Fruits and vegetable prices are expected up 1% to 2% (unchanged to up 1% prior), with USDA noting “elevated prices for wholesale fresh vegetables are expected to place upward pressure on retail prices in the coming months.”

USDA sees vegoil prices rising in 2023 by 5% to 6% even though it lowered the level of increase for 2022.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Davos Man on defense: World Economic Forum lashes out at ‘disinformation campaigns’ against its tyrannical ideas​

WEF spends end of 2022 labeling all of its critics agents for disinformation.

Jordan Schachtel
3 hr ago

In a world gone increasingly mad, it’s worth digging out some optimistic trends we’re seeing going into 2023. Some of the world’s most influential networks and organizations — which were once considered untouchables — are now feeling the heat. Davos Man, in particular, is now playing defense.

The World Economic Forum (WEF) and its benefactors are facing major headwinds. What was once a shadowy, ruling class ideas shop has been forced into the spotlight, exposing its powerful network to unwanted attention from the Common Man. The WEF’s extremist agenda, which has advanced global narratives such as the “The Great Reset” and “Build Back Better,” and “You’ll Own Nothing And You’ll Be Happy,” among others, has been met with increasingly fierce resistance. In the United States and in pockets abroad, both governmental and private actors are taking action against the Davos Man’s agenda items.

1671768524297.png
Read more

The WEF is feeling the heat, and for the first time on record, they are waging a concerted, defensive public relations campaign against the forces that oppose its advocacy for technocratic tyranny.

Just weeks before its annual invite-only, closed-door gathering in Davos, the World Economic Forum has published an article claiming it is the victim of “disinformation campaigns.”

But not to worry, “the stereotype of the so-called 'Davos Man' is less relevant today as issues of social inclusion and environmentalism have taken precedence,” the author of the piece adds.

In linking to the supposed disinformation efforts waged by the WEF’s opponents, the World Economic Forum website links to a piece that was published in The Globe and Mail in August of this year.

But the WEF is sending the reader into an echo chamber, as that article was written by a man named Adrian Monck, who now serves as the WEF’s communications chief.




In the linked article, an unhinged Monck declares that “a Russian propaganda campaign” is responsible for people’s negative perception of the WEF.

“The intent was apparently to spread disinformation in a bid to stir far-right outrage about COVID-19 and perpetuate domestic extremism,” the WEF comms chief rants. “The means was often via bots that would push far-right conspiracy theories to communities on boards such as 4chan.”

In calling for a mass censorship and surveillance regime, Monck continues:

“The consequences of unabated misinformation are dangerous. Misinformation concerning COVID-19 and vaccines cost lives during the pandemic. The revelations around the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol Hill riot reveal how false information about elections can threaten the foundations of democracy.”

Over the past few months, the WEF has labeled any and all criticism of its advocacy — and accurate portrayals of its agenda— as disinformation, flooding its website with defensive posts about the Geneva-based entity.






This week, The Dossier obtained and published a large segment of the Davos 2023 speakers and events list. Through 2023, we will continue to shine a light on the World Economic Forum’s campaigns to target human freedom.

1671768744172.png
Read more
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Federalist Editor Goes Scorched Earth on Mitch McConnell​


Matt Vespa
December 22, 2022 2:40 PM

Federalist Editor-in-Chief Mollie Hemingway has had enough of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY). She is not alone—McConnell’s antics during the 2022 midterms are cause enough for new blood in the leadership. That same standard should be applied to the entire party. From Republican National Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel to leaders in Congress—they should all go after this disastrous election cycle that saw a red wave fizzle and the GOP barely managing to win back the House. To cap it off, he praised this $1.7 trillion boondoggle as one that should be held up as a shining star of GOP initiatives getting passed with the Democratic Congress and president. Also, military aid to Ukraine is the number one priority for GOP voters—it’s not.

Hemingway delivers a thorough and detailed case for why it’s time to move on from the Kentucky Republican, who is a fixture on the Hill. It goes beyond the failed 2022 cycle, and it’s not loaded with the platitudinous claim that he’s not conservative enough, which is a Tea Party throwback swipe. The Federalist editor gave much praise for what McConnell has done well, keeping the filibuster from being nuked, confirming a trove of Donald Trump’s judicial nominees, and being, for the most part, a legislative grim reaper for liberal initiatives. Now, the latter accolade has slipped, and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has regained the upper hand in the war over the judiciary (via The Federalist):

The Kentucky Republican claimed giving more money to Ukraine is “the No. 1 priority for the United States right now, according to most Republicans.” The new $1.7 trillion Democrat spending bill he enthusiastically supports would give Ukraine another roughly $45 billion in assistance, bringing the total over the past eight months to more than $100 billion, a staggering figure even if it weren’t happening during a time of inflation, looming recession, and other serious domestic problems.

The comment about Republican priorities is so false as to be completely delusional. Among the many concerns Republican voters have with Washington, D.C., a failure to give even more money to Ukraine simply does not rank.

A large coalition of conservative groups, including the Heritage Foundation and the Conservative Partnership Institute, publicly opposed ramming through more Ukraine support during the lame-duck session before Republicans take over control of the House on Jan. 3, 2023. Strong pluralities and majorities of Republicans have told pollsters they want decreases, not increases, in foreign spending and global military involvement.

Many Republican voters support helping Ukraine fight Russia’s unjust invasion, but it is absolutely nowhere near their top issue, contrary to McConnell’s false claim.

[…]
Another comment from McConnell also shocked Republicans. Of the $1.7 trillion left-wing spending spree McConnell is working so hard to help Democrats pass, he said, unbelievably, that he was “pretty proud of the fact that with a Democratic president, Democratic House, and Democratic Senate, we were able to achieve through this omnibus spending bill essentially all of our priorities.” As an indication of how deeply sick and broken and unserious the Senate is, no one had even begun to read the lengthy bill, which was put forward just hours before votes began.

The American people voted for Republicans to take over control of the House of Representatives, and House Republicans had begged McConnell to push for a smaller, short-term bill to keep the government funded while also giving them a rare opportunity to weigh in on Biden’s policy goals. McConnell allies dismissed House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy and other House members who tried to persuade Republican senators not to support Democrats’ spending frenzy.

[…]
The politically toxic McConnell has continuously ranked as the country’s least popular politician, well behind Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. He is so disliked by Americans that he is underwater by an average of 35.3 points in polls gauging his favorability.

Unfortunately for Republicans, he has been the top elected Republican in the country for the last two years, a period marked mostly by inexcusable impotence, fecklessness, and muddled messaging from the GOP.

[…]
Rather than present a coherent and persuasive vision of what Republican control of the Senate might look like, or even demonstrating consistent opposition to Democrat policies, too often McConnell overtly or covertly helped Democrats pass their signature policy goals.

He had his deputy Sen. John Cornyn negotiate a bill to restrict Second Amendment rights. He notoriously and embarrassingly caved on a promise to help Democrats get huge numbers to pass their CHIPS subsidy, giving Biden a huge win he could celebrate with Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo two weeks before the midterm elections.

Look, I’m no McConnell hater, though I have torched him for pulling moves, some of which could have been classified as political suicide at the time. He overreacted to the January 6 riot and seemed poised to get on the Liz Cheney ‘purge Trumpism’ express but balked when he saw how enthusiastic base support was for Trump, especially regarding guiding the party’s future. Hemingway is quite clear: the GOP can’t win until McConnell leaves.

"So long as Mitch McConnell is the top elected Republican in D.C., eagerly trashing Republican voters, vociferously advocating for Democrat policy goals, pushing $1.7 trillion Democrat spending packages, and weakly fighting for whatever Republican goals he can be bothered to pursue, Republicans have a major problem. This is beyond obvious," Hemingway concluded.

The only issue is who can take the mantle. Who can be McConnell’s successor, and more importantly, who could be that person and not deliver a similar or even worse performance in leadership? Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) was always seen as the heir apparent for years, but his caving to the Democrats on gun control should disqualify him for the post. Then again, when has this bunch ever cared about what the GOP base thinks—they’re about to pass this $1.7 trillion Democratic package?
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Democrats’ Shift To Renewable Energies Has Set Up Major Risks For Catastrophic Energy Grid Failures 6:48 min

Democrats’ Shift To Renewable Energies Has Set Up Major Risks For Catastrophic Energy Grid Failures [Dave Walsh]​

Bannons War Room Published December 23, 2022

(Notes:
Bannon: Will the grid withstand the temperatures?

Walsh: 5 Governors have announced various states of emergency and warnings about home heating oil, diesel/liquid fuels and electricity shortages. Some have a high wind power component, some depend on imported power.

Bannon: Is there the possibility of mass failures during this cold snap?

Walsh: There is. We've put ourselves at risk. We have spent hundreds of billions on renewables in the past 15 years. The bigger sin is the advanced rapid tear-down of baseload, continuous duty energy sources - coal and nuclear, while renewables have been built up. They are not ready for prime time because of their intermittency and part-time nature.

Of these 5 states where Governor's have come out with warnings and various EOs, (W. Virginia, OK, CT, NY) all of them have concerns about states of emergency on electricity also, which is a new thing for us in cold times.

Why is that happening: NY shut down Indian Point nuclear plant a few years ago. That was 2,000 megawatts of continuous duty baseload energy. It was 25% of NY's energy supply .
CT and NY major importers of electricity from Canada. The cold in Canada has resulted in less energy for export. In OK, 39% dependent on wind. Below zero, many of these wind system cease to function unless they have de-icers built into them. They also don't operate at 50 mph+ wind speed. So shortages are a concern.

In W. VA, it is part of the PGM system and Wisconsin part of the MISO system. MISO is Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa generally - 14 state region, reduced 4 more gigawatts of baseload coal and nuclear capacity just since last winter. That's 4 million people worth of continuous duty baseload energy.

EU has doubled down on their madness against man-caused CO2 in the form of fossil fuel imports, which will now have additional duties and tariffs. This is in the middle of the worst energy shortage that Europe has seen since WWII.

The UK now has 14 million people living under the poverty level, due, in part, to the very high cost of energy. He saw an unprecedented number of people in London living on the streets and bundled up in seeping bags on sidewalks. They are importing natural gas from us and a few other sources like Norway, and Qatar at 4 times what it would cost if they developed their own resources. England is full of natural gas. The government has decided to sit on what they have and instead, import LNG at 4 times the cost.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Bannon’s War Room co-host Natalie Winters: A host of Conservatives got banned from Twitter after criticizing Ukrainian flag in congress 2:15 min

Bannon’s War Room co-host Natalie Winters: A host of Conservatives got banned from Twitter after criticizing Ukrainian flag in congress​

The Post Millennial Clips Published December 23, 2022 118 Views
(No summary given. Have not watched.)

^^^^

Mike Benz: DHS Deputized Burisma Lobbyist To Censor 22 Million Americans Over Election Fraud 7:04 min

Mike Benz: DHS Deputized Burisma Lobbyist To Censor 22 Million Americans Over Election Fraud​

Bannons War Room Published December 23, 2022

(No summary given. Have not watched.)

^^^^^^
Darren Beattie: Newest Twitter Bans Reveal Rogue Employees Are Still Employed By Elon Musk 4:53 min

Darren Beattie: Newest Twitter Bans Reveal Rogue Employees Are Still Employed By Elon Musk​

Bannons War Room Published December 23, 2022

(No summary given. Have not watched.)
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Steve Bannon: Traitor Senate Republicans Handed Away Americans’ Main Leverage By Passing The Omnibus 9:59 min

Steve Bannon: Traitor Senate Republicans Handed Away Americans’ Main Leverage By Passing The Omnibus​

Bannons War Room Published December 23, 2022

(No summary given. Have not watched.)

^^^
Steve Bannon Calls Out Traitor Senate Republicans Who Voted For Omnibus 7:03 min

Steve Bannon Calls Out Traitor Senate Republicans Who Voted For Omnibus​

Bannons War Room Published December 22, 2022

(No summary given. Have not watched.)

^^^^
Chip Roy Goes Off On The 18 Republicans That Voted For MASSIVE Spending Bill .32 min

Chip Roy Goes Off On The 18 Republicans That Voted For MASSIVE Spending Bill​

Red Voice Media Published December 23, 2022

$600 hundred million more to the FBI & "all sorts of provisions to go after law abiding gun owners." - Chip Roy
 
Last edited:

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Naomi Wolf On Florida Supreme Court Investigation Into COVID mRNA Vaccine Manufacturers 8:26 min

Naomi Wolf On Florida Supreme Court Investigation Into COVID mRNA Vaccine Manufacturers​

Bannons War Room Published December 22, 2022

(No summary given. Have not watched.)

^^^^
Naomi Wolf: House Bill HB9366 Strips Away Big Pharma's Liability Protections For Injuries & Deaths 2:34 min

Naomi Wolf: House Bill HB9366 Strips Away Big Pharma's Liability Protections For Injuries & Deaths​

Sunfellow On COVID-19 Published December 23, 2022

1671824246897.png

(No summary given. Have not watched.)
 
Last edited:

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Responding to Climate Alarmists | Guest: David Legates, Ph.D. | Ep 220 28:11 min

Responding to Climate Alarmists | Guest: David Legates, Ph.D. | Ep 220​

Economic War Room Published December 22, 2022

We are told that the world is coming to an end and that everything is getting worse, with more floods, more droughts, more hurricanes, and so forth. And when you look at the record, you start to see there are a lot of fluctuations, but there really isn't any long-term trend. Climate alarmists have convinced much of the world that carbon is the most dangerous threat we face; however, it's just a giant scheme to control nations and money. Noted climate scientist Dr. David Legates joins Kevin Freeman in the Economic War Room to expose the lies being sold the to world and how to respond to the aggressive climate change alarmists.

^^^^^
Climate alarmists are telling us the world is coming to an end and we are the cause. Is this true? 4:59 min

Climate alarmists are telling us the world is coming to an end and we are the cause. Is this true? [real interest is changing the economic structure]​

Economic War Room Published December 22, 2022

The fact that over the last 80 years Northern Delaware has gone from being very rural to very urban. There has been urban street flooding, which leads to flooding of the rivers and streams. More people demanding water. So, when we get low on water resources, droughts are much more frequent. So, we are seeing more floods and droughts, it has nothing to do with climate change. And in fact, in most of the variables, there are no major changes connected to carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide seems to be only a minor player in climate change.
 
Last edited:

marsh

On TB every waking moment
(Redacted segments)

Wait why was this nuclear fusion story HIDDEN for 30 years? | Redacted with Clayton Morris 15:41 min

Wait why was this nuclear fusion story HIDDEN for 30 years? | Redacted with Clayton Morris​

Redacted News Published December 23, 2022

Scientists in California have created energy with nuclear fusion. This is not nuclear power that comes from factories. It is something different. Japan has been in a race to this technology first and they say that they will have it ready by the middle of the century. But will this solve our geopolitical energy crisis? Probably not since it still requires materials from China.

^^^^^^
This CONFIRMS everything we thought 22:43 min

This CONFIRMS everything we thought​

Redacted News Published December 22, 2022

Ukrainian President Zelensky's speech to the U.S. shows us exactly how much propaganda is needed to drag this war out. When he said that the war would continue until the bitter end, he received a standing ovation. This means that his people will continue to die. They were applauding death. The mainstream media thinks that this was a speech to show the kids. Was it? You decide.

^^^^
TERROR ATTACK on Nord Stream pipeline EXPOSED | Redacted with Natali and Clayton Morris 14:53 min

TERROR ATTACK on Nord Stream pipeline EXPOSED | Redacted with Natali and Clayton Morris​

Redacted News Published December 22, 2022

The Washington Post is reporting that there is “no conclusive evidence” that “Russia was behind the Nord Stream attack.” But they're the same newspaper that suggested that Russian President Putin actually did this himself single-handedly. So is this a begrudged conclusion? The Post cited 23 diplomats and intelligence officers from nine countries and found that no one who took this seriously believed Russia was responsible. Thanks. We figured that out weeks ago.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Shocking: City of El Paso unable to control influx of illegal immigrants 8:23 min

Shocking: City of El Paso unable to control influx of illegal immigrants​

Rebel News Published December 23, 2022

Rebel News' Katie Daviscourt reports on the shocking situation that unchecked illegal immigration has created in El Paso, Texas.

^^^^^
BORDER CRISIS: An in-depth tour of America’s border crisis in El Paso, Texas 19:06 min

BORDER CRISIS: An in-depth tour of America’s border crisis in El Paso, Texas​

Rebel News Published December 23, 2022

From exploring man-made caves that illegal immigrants hide in to escape US Border Patrol, to lookout points used by cartels, and Steve Bannon’s Border Wall, Aguero takes Rebel News' Katie Daviscourt on an exclusive, never before-seen, tour.

^^^^
Rebel reporter details shocking scenes at US southern border with Ezra Levant 12:01 min

Rebel reporter details shocking scenes at US southern border with Ezra Levant​

Rebel News Published December 23, 2022

Rebel News' Katie Daviscourt joins Ezra Levant from El Paso, Texas to discuss the shocking situation unfolding at the US southern border.

^^^^
Human Smugglers Caught On Video Openly Taking Payments From Illegal Aliens On Biden's Watch 5:36 min

Human Smugglers Caught On Video Openly Taking Payments From Illegal Aliens On Biden's Watch​

Red Voice Media Published December 23, 2022

They're complicit in human smuggling and support cartels with their open border policies.
 
Last edited:

marsh

On TB every waking moment
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qs_Kipghczg
13:48 min

China Reverses Zero Covid, and It’s Chaos​

N71RZIX1j2-7LvWXpaGhH1gKv01MaQPzp3MLorjA0btaRsN_gGicFaWnmtZOrgT_nCh4EfHt=s88-c-k-c0x00ffffff-no-rj

China Uncensored
Dec 23, 2022
China has reversed its zero Covid policy of aiming to have zero deaths from Covid-19, and now there's chaos. Xi Jinping met with former Russian leader Dmitry Medvedev. Hong Kong is pushing "national education" (read CCP brainwashing) for adults now. Watch this episode of China Uncensored for that and more of this week's China news headlines. China’s BIZARRE Response to Russia’s Ukraine Invasion

On Rumble: China Reverses Zero Covid, and It’s Chaos
 
Last edited:

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Biden ENDORSES Radical Trans Agenda as It Gets EXPOSED in Shocking Videos | @glennbeck 18:08 min

Biden ENDORSES Radical Trans Agenda as It Gets EXPOSED in Shocking Videos | @glennbeck​

BlazeTV Published December 23, 2022

Glenn once predicted that soon our world would turn upside-down: ‘Everything that you thought was solid will be liquid; everything that is liquid will be solid.’ Well that day is OFFICIALLY HERE, Glenn says. So, in this clip, he explains why we cannot continue to follow our ‘feelings,’ why Biden’s recent message about transgender kids is incredibly harmful, and why we’re living a ‘complete lie.’
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
(Brazil)

Investigative journalist Matt Tyrmand predicts Brazil will be invoking Martial Law in the coming days, following the arrest of Cererê, chief of the Xavantes tribe 7:13 min

Investigative journalist Matt Tyrmand predicts Brazil will be invoking Martial Law in the coming days, following the arrest of Cererê, chief of the Xavantes tribe​

The Post Millennial Clips Published December 23, 2022 161 Views

Investigative journalist Matt Tyrmand predicts Brazil will be invoking Martial Law in the coming days, following the arrest of Cererê, chief of the Xavantes tribe.

 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Bob Kudla - Climate Change Hoax Is Fading, Economic Disaster, Biden & The Fed Are To Blame 27:06 min (starts at .58 min)

Bob Kudla - Climate Change Hoax Is Fading, Economic Disaster, Biden & The Fed Are To Blame​

X22 Report Published December 23, 2022

Bob is the created and owner of Trade Genius Academy. Bob also does a podcast on YouTube which is called Trade Genius. Bob begins the conversation explaining how the climate change hoax is now falling apart and the people are not buying it. The [CB]/Biden Administration are trapped in their agenda and inflation and fuel prices will being to move up. The economic disaster in the end will be blamed on the Biden ad the Fed.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9usDOnf040
18:08 min

Biden ENDORSES Radical Trans Agenda as It Gets EXPOSED in Shocking Videos | @glennbeck​

AMLnZu-PG-Utny-2wA_EWHskHM7wsmtTnVslE1nMabnCcA=s88-c-k-c0x00ffffff-no-rj

BlazeTV
Dec 23, 2022
Glenn once predicted that soon our world would turn upside-down: ‘Everything that you thought was solid will be liquid; everything that is liquid will be solid.’ Well that day is OFFICIALLY HERE, Glenn says. So, in this clip, he explains why we cannot continue to follow our ‘feelings,’ why Biden’s recent message about transgender kids is incredibly harmful, and why we’re living a ‘complete lie.’
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

"I've Never Seen It That Bad": Texas Congressman Describes Conditions At Overcrowded Border Processing Center​

THURSDAY, DEC 22, 2022 - 01:20 PM
Authored by Samantha Flom via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Rep. Tony Gonzalez (R-Texas) on Dec. 21 said that the conditions at a processing facility on the U.S.-Mexico border were the worse he’s ever seen it.

Mexico_US_Migrant_Asylum_Ban_22355065470775-700x420.jpg
U.S. military prevent people from crossing illegally into El Paso, Texas, as seen from Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, on Dec. 20, 2022. (AP Photo/Christian Chavez)

Gonzalez, in an interview with Fox News, made the remark while discussing a video he filmed at a processing center in El Paso, Texas, last week.

“I’d been to that processing center many times, but I’ve never seen it that bad,” he added, noting that the “absolutely horrible” conditions had not improved in the five days since he took the video.

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1604590583292563456
.51 min

“I got an update last night,” the congressman advised. “There’s still over 4,000 migrants in that center, that processing center, which is 400 percent past capacity. And here you have the administration saying, ‘We need to do away with Title 42.’”

Describing the scene in El Paso, Gonzalez said that National Guard members have put up razor wire fence along the border.

“It’s out of a movie,” he said. “It’s out of an apocalyptic time”

Title 42

Title 42, invoked in March 2020, allows U.S. border patrol officials to quickly expel asylum-seekers from countries with high infection rates of COVID-19.

For months, the Biden administration has sought to terminate the Trump-era policy, holding that it is no longer necessary given the overall improvement in the nation’s public health situation. However, those efforts have been blocked by legal challenges.

On Monday, the Supreme Court granted a temporary stay on the expiration of the policy, which a lower court had ordered to occur by Dec. 21, while the court decided on an emergency request from 19 Republican-led states to reverse the lower court’s ruling.

In its Tuesday response to those states’ request, the Biden administration asked the Supreme Court to delay the expiration of Title 42 until after Christmas, due to reduced staffing over the holiday and other operational issues.

While also acknowledging that the termination of the Title 42 policy would likely result in disruption and a “temporary” increase in illegal border crossings, the administration argued that the solution to that problem should be through Title 8 immigration law rather than the indefinite extension of “a public-health measure that all now acknowledge has outlived its public-health justification.”

Meanwhile, proponents of Title 42 hold that the policy’s termination would create an untenable situation for those states that are already overwhelmed by the dramatic increase in illegal immigrants crossing the border.

“Getting rid of Title 42 will recklessly and needlessly endanger more Americans and migrants by exacerbating the catastrophe that is occurring at our southern border,” Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich noted on Monday.

According to Gonzalez, the surge of illegal immigrants at the border has inundated the city of El Paso, in particular, to the point where individuals are now being housed in buildings provided by the local school district as well as at the El Paso Convention Center.

There’s talk of using Fort Bliss,” the congressman added, “which is the Army base there in El Paso.”

Gonzalez said that the Biden administration’s plan is to erect temporary tents along the border to increase holding capacity while they create a new expedited removal process apart from Title 42.

“What that means is, ideally, people that do not qualify for asylum get removed,” Gonzalez said. “But I worry that they’re only going to increase capacity and then just release more people into El Paso and throughout the country.”

And Republicans are not the only people with such concerns.

Bipartisan Fears Escalate

California’s Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom, for instance, told ABC News last week that he feared his state would not be able to handle the influx of illegal immigrants that an end to Title 42 would create.

“The fact is, what we’ve got right now is not working, and it’s about to break in a post-42 world unless we take some responsibility and ownership,” Newsom said. “I’m saying that as a Democrat. I’m not saying that to point fingers. I’m saying that as a father, I’m saying that as someone that feels responsible for being part of the solution, and I’m trying to do my best here.”

Additionally, describing the situation at the border as “unsecure” and a “humanitarian and security nightmare,” newly independent Rep. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona warned Tuesday that Title 42’s expiration would only worsen the crisis and allow “thousands of migrants to enter Arizona, Texas, and other border states without the proper procedures, plans, or infrastructures in place.”

Read more here...
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Why Are So Many Men Leaving The Workforce?​

THURSDAY, DEC 22, 2022 - 03:20 PM
Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

Last week, CNN featured a story called "Men are dropping out of the workforce. Here's why" The article went on to tell us virtually nothing at all about why so many men are leaving the workforce. Although as many as seven million men have stayed out of the workforce for varying reasons, the CNN piece was really about how more women are joining the workforce, and how wonderful it is that more women are working in "male dominated" fields. The fact that more women are joining the workforce, however, tells us nothing about why men are leaving. Indeed, the CNN piece offered only one reason to answer why men are leaving the workforce: they're becoming stay-at-home dads.

That category, however, is fairly small and numbers only in the hundreds of thousands. That leaves us wondering why millions of men have left the workforce for reasons other than raising children. If we look deeper into the available information on the question, the reality appears to be a lot less rosy than CNN's suggested reason of "their wives are so doggone successful, these men decided to stay home and raise the kids."


Source: Census Bureau, Table SHP-1: Parents and Children in Stay-at-Home Parent Family Groups.

Instead, the reasons driving the lion's share of missing men to leave the workforce appear to be illness, drug addiction, a perceived lack of well-paying jobs, government welfare, and the decline of marriage. None of these are reasons to celebrate, and few of these reasons lend themselves to any quick fixes through changes in law or policy.

At Least Six Million Missing Men​

As I noted earlier this month, there are at least six million men of "prime age" (age 25-54) who are out of the workforce for various reasons.

Historically, this number has been getting larger at a rate faster than growth of total men in that age group. That is, fewer than 3 percent of prime-age men were "not in the workforce" in the late 1970s, but 5.6 percent of men in this group were out of the labor force in 2022.

That translates into approximately 7.1 million men according to the Census Bureau's count of men "not in labor force."


Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

We could contrast this with the proportion of women who are not in the labor force.

Fewer prime-age women today are out of the labor force than was the case in the late 1970s. Women tend to remain out of the labor force in much larger numbers of men, so we find that in 2022, the total number of women out of the labor force is approximately 15 million.

That number is smaller than what was common in the late 1970's, however. As more women have joined the labor force over the past 40 years, more men have left.


Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Again, it is important to emphasize we are talking about prime age men here, and we're excluding older and younger populations in which retirement and schooling remove large numbers of workers from the workforce.

Even including only prime age men, however, Alan B. Kreuger notes that the workforce trend in the US is headed downward faster than other wealthy countries:

Although the labor force participation rate of prime age men has trended down in the United States and other economically advanced countries for many decades, by international standards the labor force participation rate of prime age men in the United States is notably low.

Why Men Leave the Labor Force​

Determining reasons for leaving the labor force is not easy, as the data depends heavily on surveys and on extrapolation. According to the census bureau, however, number less than 250,000 men in recent years are outside the labor force in order to care for children full time.

This is only a tiny fraction of the total number of parents who leave the labor force to be stay-at-home parents. That leaves more than six million men who have left the labor force for some other reason.

Wages and Social Status​

One thing is fairly clear: labor force participation is worse for men with less schooling. As Kreuger notes, labor force participation for prime age men has fallen for men at all education levels, "but by substantially more for those with a high school degree or less." Indeed, labor force participation has barely fallen for men with advanced degrees, but has gone into steep decline among high school dropouts and those with no college.


Source: Ariel J. Binder and John Bound, "The Declining Labor Market Prospects of Less-Educated Men," Journal of Economic Perspectives 33, no. 2 (Spring 2019): 170.

Closely connected to this is the relative wage growth among these groups. While inflation-adjusted wages have increased significantly for men with college-level schooling or more, the same is certainly not true for men with "some college" or less. In these latter groups, earnings have stagnated since 1965, having risen throughout the mid 1970s, falling below the 1965 wage by 1995, and then slowly returning to 1960s levels. While this does not represent a sizable fall in wages in real terms since 1965, it is a large drop relative to the wages of men with more schooling.


Source: Ariel J. Binder and John Bound, "The Declining Labor Market Prospects of Less-Educated Men," Journal of Economic Perspectives 33, no. 2 (Spring 2019): 165.
(Women, incidentally, have not seen nearly as large declines in wages based on levels of schooling.)

This growing earnings gap between men at various education levels has been blamed for driving the exit of so many men from the workforce. For example, in a report from the Boston Federal Reserve earlier this month, research Pinghui Wu concludes that relative decline in wages drives more men to leave the workforce than has the overall decline in real wages. Moreover, Wu ties the decline in relative wages to declines in "a worker’s social status." This effect is seen most strongly in non-Hispanic white men and younger men. Wu writes: "non-college-educated men are more likely to leave the labor force when the top earners in a state make disproportionately more than the other workers."

Falling social status has been tied to low job-satisfaction, disability, and higher mortality. All of this tends to lead to lower workforce participation. Moreover, men at lower education and lower wage levels tend to be more prone to workplace injury, given the nature of the work.

Indeed, as Ariel Binder and John Bound have shown, men who have exited the labor force say they are frequently in pain, and take pain medication regularly. Men in this group who are over 45 years of age also tend to be more frequently eligible for government disability benefits. Binder and Bound suggest that the expansion of disability benefits in recent decades "could explain up to 25 percent of the rise in nonparticipation among 45–54 year-old high school graduates (without college)."

The Decline of Marriage​

Wu, Binder, and Bound all also point to another important factor in falling male workforce participation: changes in marriage patterns.

Wu notes that men with lower social status fare more poorly in the marriage market, and that "marriage market sorting [a] potential channels through which relative earnings affect men’s labor force exit decisions." This would also help explain why declining social status also appears to especially affect younger men who are more likely to be active in pursuing a spouse.

Binder and Bound meanwhile note declining marriage rates are closely tied to workforce participation overall. This works in both directions: Declining incomes lead to declines in marriage. But unmarried men also have less incentive to actively seek employment. Marriage also may hamper a man's ability to draw income from existing relatives. Binder and Bound write:

As others have documented, family structure in the United States has changed dramatically since the 1960s, featuring a tremendous decline in the share of less educated men forming and maintaining stable marriages. We additionally show an increase in the share of less-educated men living with their parents or other relatives. Providing for a new family plausibly provides a man with incentives to engage in labor market activity: conversely, a reduction in the prospects of forming and maintaining a stable family removes an important labor supply incentive. At the same time, the possibility of drawing income support from existing relatives creates a feasible labor-force exit.

It's not just men with lower levels of schooling who marry less often, however.

Marriage has indeed declined more for lower-income men than higher-income men. Declining marriage rates at the middle-class level and below, however, likely drive falling labor participation independent of wages. That is, "changing family structure shifts male labor supply incentives independently of labor market conditions" as unmarried men are simply less motivated to work."

What Is to Blame?​

The importance of relative wages points to the importance of economic factors in the decline of working men.

Enormous growth in government intervention in the twentieth century has led to a reversal of nineteenth century trends and led instead to capital consumption. It is notable that since the 1970s, savings and investment have declined, and Mihai Macovai notes " the real stock of capital per worker has grown in a clear and sustained manner only until the end-1970s and fell afterwards until the trough of the Great Recession." This has led to declining worker productivity and lower wages for many workers.

In more recent years, covid lockdowns impacted lower-income workers the most, and lockdowns are likely to raise overall mortality among these workers, as well, even years after the lockdowns ended. Unemployment and intermittent employment is tied to higher mortality rates and disability in both the medium and long terms.

Finally, a powerful factor is the central bank's monetary policy which has been linked to a rising gap between higher-income workers and lower-income ones. Easy-money policy has been especially damaging to wealth-building for lower-income groups, as Karen Petrou notes in her book Engine of Inequality:

Ultra-low [interest] rates fundamentally eviscerated the ability of all but the wealthy to gain an economic toehold; instead they lead investors to drive up equity and other asset prices to achieve their return … but average Americans hold little, if any, stock or investment instruments. Instead, they save what they can in bank accounts. The rates on these have been so low for so long that these thrifty, prudent households have in fact set themselves back with each dollar they save. Pension funds are just as hard-hit meaning not only that average Americans can't save for the future, but also that the instruments on which they count for additional security are unlikely to meet their needs.

But not all can be blamed on economic policy. The importance of marriage as a factor in workforce participation illustrates that some aspects of declining workforce participation lie beyond mere economics. Marriage rates for the middle class have continued to fall even in periods when median wages have increased—such as the 1990s. These trends are tied to changes in ideology, religious observance, and a host of social factors. Other factors such as rising drug addiction and obesity affect workforce participation as they are tied to disability and poor health, often at elevated rates among lower-income workers.

In other words, government policy certainly plays a sizable role in declining male workforce participation, but changing American culture cannot be ignored.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Musk’s Neuralink Promising For Disabled, 'Ethical Concern' For Masses, Experts Say​


THURSDAY, DEC 22, 2022 - 05:20 PM
Authored by Petr Svab via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Neuralink implant that aims to allow a person to control a computer with thoughts has good potential to achieve its initial goal of helping paralyzed people communicate. It may, at least to some extent, help restore vision for the blind. It may, to a significant degree, restore limb control for those with spine injuries, according to several neuroscientists.

But when it comes to Neuralink’s broader goals of letting healthy people interface with computers directly via the mind, the technical capability is achievable, but would lead to expansive ethical, safety, security, privacy, and even philosophical issues, experts told The Epoch Times.

Neuralink—founded in 2016 by the world’s richest man, prolific entrepreneur Elon Musk—recently applied to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for human trials of its brain implants. The company staged a three-hour presentation of its progress, including demonstrations of a monkey controlling a computer with its mind, a robot that can handle some of the most delicate parts of the required brain implant insertion surgery, as well as a pig whose legs can be controlled remotely by a computer.

The presentation also included a monkey with a brain implant that made it see flashes of light, a step toward the company’s proposition to restore vision for the blind.

The overarching goal of Neuralink is to create, ultimately, a whole brain interface. So a generalized input-output device that in the long term literally could interface with every aspect of your brain and in the short term can interface with any given section of your brain and solve a tremendous number of things that cause debilitating issues for people,” Musk said during the presentation.

The Neuralink technology “makes a lot of sense” for helping people with disabilities, said Nicho Hatsopoulos, a neurology professor at the University of Chicago and one of the pioneers of brain-computer interface development.

It is impressive, actually,” he said after seeing the Neuralink presentation.

Mark Churchland, associate professor of neuroscience at Columbia University and an expert on brain signal decoding, commended Neuralink for bringing the brain-computer interface technology a long way from experiment to product.

“They seem to have a solid wireless interface, which is not an easy thing to build. And going from needing racks of equipment and computers to needing an iPhone is impressive,” he said.

“In terms of the actual experiments, it’s not doing anything that hasn’t been done before, but if you’re doing it better and more easily, that counts for a lot.”

When it comes to the company’s plans to one day mass-produce the implants for use by anybody and everybody, both Hatsopoulos and Churchland were much more reserved.
We’re going to have to have some serious ethical conversations,” Hatsopoulos said, noting that “it’s one thing to help restore function in people who have a disability,” but “another thing to augment people.”

“Augmentation is going to be a big ethical concern,” he said.

Churchland was more blunt.

“I think that is likely a really bad idea,” he said.

Other experts raised concerns as well, ranging from philosophical questions over free will to security and privacy issues with regard to data collected from the brain as well as the potential to hack the implant.

Level 1: Mind Mouse​

Neuralink’s initial goal is to enable physically incapacitated people to control a computer. At the current stage of development, the implant is roughly the size of a small stack of quarters.

To install it, first, a piece of skin would be cut and peeled off the skull of the patient. Then, a small hole would be drilled in the skull. Next, a series of extremely thin, flexible wires would be connected to a thin needle one by one and stuck by a robotic machine inside the surface layer of the brain in the motor cortex area. The implant would be placed inside the hole in the skull, sealing it. The skin would be sewn over it and, as it heals, the implant would become invisible from the outside.

The person would be asked to think, for instance, about moving their hand in a certain direction. Corresponding brain activity signals from the implant would be collected over a period of time, translated to computer data and commands via artificial intelligence and voila—the implant would then allow the person to control a computer with their mind.

The Neuralink presentation proved the concept by showing a video of a monkey with the implant. The primate moved a mouse cursor to highlighted positions on a computer screen, getting bits of banana smoothie through a tube as a reward

The underlying technology is real and a similar experiment has been repeated many times by researchers using various methods, according to Shinsuke Shimojo, a professor of experimental psychology at the California Institute of Technology.

In fact, a similar effect can be achieved even without sticking wires inside the brain as some brain activity can be detected on the surface of the head, he said, noting he’s currently working on one such technology.

“It can be recordable reasonably well from the electrodes outside of the skull,” Shimojo said. “Those are done already and it’s going to be even better.”

The more invasive path Neuralink has taken is more ambitious and more delicate.

Regulatory authorities don’t allow invasive experimental techniques unless there’s an urgent medical need, Shimojo noted.

“It’s not a science problem. It’s an ethical problem,” he said.

Such experiments have so far been approved on a small scale for research purposes.

In the early 2000s, implants developed by Cyberkinetics, a company co-founded by Hatsopoulos, were tested on several physically disabled patients. The project fizzled out because its investors lost interest, he said.

The underlying software was acquired by a company called BrainGate in 2008 and clinical trials with small groups of patients have been ongoing at several research institutions, including one called BrainGate2 under the leadership of Leigh Hochberg, an engineering professor at Brown University.

Science has only recently reached a point where multiple companies have decided to try to move it from research to a marketable product, Hochberg said.

He’s currently helping several such companies, including Neuralink, which is now in talks with the FDA to run clinical trials that could lead to official approval of its implant as a form of treatment.

Clinical trials of this type would generally take a few years,” Hochberg said.

Each new iteration of the implants would then require further trials, though he hopes software improvements of the system could be incorporated “with perhaps more speed.”

The technology has been aided by advances in machine learning, which allows matching brain signal patterns with specific actions, such as moving a mouse cursor in a particular direction. Machine learning allows the correlation of brain patterns with physical outcomes without the need to understand the function of each specific neuron.

That’s the difference between the scientific approach and the engineering approach,” Shimojo commented.

Scientists try to find out how things work, such as by exploring “how each neuron is wired” or “what’s the hierarchy of information processing in different parts of the brain,” he said. As a result, they try to drill down to causal relationships.

Engineers, on the other hand, try to solve a problem. If an artificial intelligence finds a pattern that matches the desired result 95 percent of the time, that may be good enough, he noted.

“I think right now, it’s moving, especially because of this deep learning progress, in that direction.”

Level 2: Artificial Eye​

The next step for the Neuralink technology would be to restore sight, the presenters said.

The same implant would be inserted at the back of the skull and connected to the visual cortex, the part of the brain responsible for processing images from the eyes. A video stream from a camera would then be encoded as neural signals and used to stimulate neurons responsible for image processing, thus rendering a picture.

This seems to be possible in principle, but there may be difficulties in practice.

“There are some constraints that can be removed eventually by just technical advance. And then there are some intrinsic limitations related to how the visual cortex itself is organized,” Shimojo said.

Some neurons in the visual cortex indeed correspond to a location in the visual field. That means correct stimulation of one location in the brain produces a flash of light at a particular location in one’s vision and stimulation of another location produces a flash of light at a different place. Experiments of this kind have been done in apes and Neuralink demonstrated one.

But “so far, the resolution is very, very low—ridiculously low,” Shimojo said.
The flashes of light such stimulation produces can only be positioned on a grid of perhaps 12 by 12 pixels, he said.

The picture quality can be improved by stimulating more neurons, i.e. inserting more electrodes into the brain. The Neuralink implant currently uses over 1,000 electrodes with a promise of 16,000 electrodes on the same chip. For the visual aid, the presentation proposed two implants with 16,000 electrodes each. If each electrode could be used to stimulate multiple “pixels,” perhaps a picture quality on par with a 1980s computer can be achieved.

But even if the number of electrodes is further boosted in the future, the resulting image quality would still be limited, according to Shimojo.

The problem is that if one creates a topographic map of the visual field, assigning each neuron to its position in the field, the result is nowhere precise enough to make up a clear image.

“The topographic map is kind of crude and diffuse. It’s not pinpoint,” he said.

People see with clarity thanks to complex, multi-layer image processing by the brain where the signal can travel back and forth between the layers and where neurons help adjacent neurons with the tasks.

It’s not clear how the implant could achieve a comparable result, according to Shimojo.

“It’s not easily solved by the technical side,” he said.

Musk went as far as to suggest vision can be restored for people who are congenitally blind because even such people possess a visual cortex.

“Even if they’ve never seen before, we’re confident that they could see,” he said.

Hatsopoulos wasn’t so convinced.

“I’m not clear that that’s possible,” he said.

The issue is that the visual cortex “develops over the first several years of life” and the visual input from the eyes “helps organize how the visual cortex will function,” Hatsopoulos explained.

Around the age of two, the brain loses the initial ability to develop so rapidly.

That early development is “crucial,” he said, giving the example of children born with cataracts. The condition can be remedied by surgically replacing eye lenses, but it needs to be done early on. If the operation is performed too late, the patient won’t be able to see, even though all the physical parts are present and functioning.

Everything is perfectly fine, but the person will not understand the visual input coming in,” Hatsopoulos said.

Part 1 of 2​

 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Part 2 of 2

Level 3: Stretching the Limbs​

The Neuralink presentation outlined how the implants could restore limb control for people paralyzed after spine injuries. Aside from the implant in the motor cortex, another several implants would be inserted into the spine. Signals from the brain would then be recorded and sent to the spinal implants, bridging the part where the spinal cord is severed or damaged.

In principle, this is fully achievable, according to the experts.

“In fact, we’re doing that right now,” Hatsopoulos said. His university is working with a different implant technology that allows a patient to control a mechanical arm via the mind.

One challenge is to record from many neurons at the same time “to give you the rich kind of movement that you would want to get” in order to produce “movement that’s somewhat normal,” he said.

Reading from maybe a thousand neurons should suffice to restore “functional movement,” such as allowing a person to feed or dress themselves, Hatsopoulos said.

“Maybe not as quickly as they would if they had an intact system, but they can do it,” he said.

Based on its technical specifications, the Neuralink implant should enable a wide range of movement. Its presentation included a video of a pig with brain and spinal implants that bent its leg and stretched its thighs in response to commands sent to the implants.

Facilitating complex movement, such as playing a piano, would probably require thousands of electrodes, Hatsopoulos said, noting “we’re taking baby steps right now.”

Another challenge is fine-tuning the stimulation so it targets muscle threads that don’t tire quickly.

You’ve got to do more than just activate muscles,” Churchland said.

“You’ve got to activate them in a relatively natural way to avoid fatigue. And that’s definitely doable, but it’s certainly not trivial.”

It’s helpful in this endeavor that patients usually actively cooperate to make the solution work. Even though the number of electrodes may create a bottleneck, with effort, patients could rewire their brains to take maximum advantage of the interface.

With practice, they can get better at it,” Hatsopoulos said.

The ability to move, however, is not enough. To truly restore function to a limb requires fixing the sense of touch too.

That means recording sensory impulses from the limb and sending them to another implant in the brain’s sensory cortex.

In principle, that has already been done as well. Stimulating some brain cells, for example, can create an impression that one is touching something, Hatsopoulos said, referring to experiments done at his university. The issue, again, is reading from and stimulating enough neurons to create a sufficiently robust touch experience.

The technology still has a long way to go in this regard, Hochberg acknowledged.
It’s early, but exciting days,” he said.

For truly natural movement, however, one would need to go further yet.

A healthy person not only senses limb movement from what he touches externally, but also gets a sense of movement and limb position from inside the body.

The phenomenon is called proprioception. Scientists know that certain brain areas receive those kinds of sensory inputs, but it’s not quite known how it works.

“That’s the next frontier in this field,” Hatsopoulos said. “No one has cracked that yet.”

Level 4: Cyborgs​

Musk envisions Neuralink going far beyond helping the disabled. He portrayed it more as a natural next step from a smartphone or smartwatch. Just like “replacing a piece of skull with a smartwatch for lack of a better analogy,” as he put it.

I could have a Neuralink device implanted right now and you wouldn’t even know. I mean, hypothetically, I may be one of these demos. In fact, one of these demos I will,” he said to laughs and cheers from the audience.

He argued that “we are all already cyborgs in a way that your phone and your computer are extensions of yourself.”

“I’m sure you found if you leave your phone behind you end up tapping your pockets and it’s like having missing limb syndrome,” he said.

Neuralink for healthy people, however, may be far in the future, if it ever comes.
“The FDA is not going to approve this for use in healthy individuals. At least in this version of the implant,” Hatsopoulos said, noting that “you would have to show an incredible level of safety.”

Shimojo expressed a similar sentiment.

If the safety is proven, then there’s a possibility, in the long, long future, that maybe intact, healthy people have electrodes inside of the brain. But I don’t think that’s going to happen soon,” he said.

The technology would likely have to get to a point of giving disabled people greater capabilities than healthy people have.

Musk believes the implant would indeed bestow superior capabilities.

“We’re confident that someone who has basically no other interface to the outside world would be able to control their phone better than someone who has working hands,” he said.

But even if the implant is technically safe in the sense that it wouldn’t accidentally harm the user and even if it eventually passes regulatory muster, the technology faces other problems that may prove intractable.

Data Security​

The Neuralink implant currently communicates with a computer using Bluetooth. That can be hacked by a number of easily available tools, according to Gary Miliefsky, a cybersecurity expert, head of Cyber Defense Media Group, and a founding member of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

“If you’re in the proximity of the person you will probably be able to steal some data. So that’s not secure,” he said.

As a first step, the communication between the implant and a computer would need to be encrypted, but that would drain the battery and processing power on the implant.

Even then, “people will find ways to hack” the implants, Miliefsky said.

There are already devices that can “unwind” SSL and TLS encryption protocols commonly used to secure emails, he said. And new technologies can go even further.

Quantum computing can probably break today’s encryption pretty easily,” he said.

There’s “quantum-proof” encryption on the horizon, but the processing power it requires is far beyond anything a small implant could handle now or even in the upcoming decades, he estimated.

“Nothing is bulletproof. Nothing is foolproof. When they tell you it’s unhackable, it’s usually hacked in five minutes, whatever it is,” he said.

Even if the implant-computer communication is somehow secured, the brain activity data could still be exfiltrated from the computer, such as by infecting the computer with malware.

“Seventy percent of new malware gets past all the virus scanners,” Miliefsky noted.

And even if the data is somehow secured on the computer, it would still need to be accessed by technicians servicing the implant.

Anybody with insider access to the Neuralink system would immediately become a prime target for every intelligence agency and every malicious actor in the world, Miliefsky acknowledged.

“They’ll be unsuspecting victims. Absolutely,” he said.

And that doesn’t even include the issue of covert operatives of all sorts lining up for jobs at Neuralink.

“Insider threat defense is a big issue,” Miliefsky said.

Yet another area of concern is that, once the data exists, there’s a chance the government could use the legal process to force Neuralink to preserve the data and share it for purposes of criminal investigations, counterintelligence, national security, and intelligence collection.

Brain Hack​

The implications of a hacked implant appear difficult to fully grasp.

People seem to be willing to accept some level of privacy intrusion. Smartphones, for example, can easily be used to listen in on a person and track one’s movement.

“We’re walking around with spyware every day,” Miliefsky said.

A brain implant, however, can produce personal data on another level of intimacy.

From the motor cortex, an implant could record a wide range of body movements, according to Hochberg.

“It continues to, I think, both amaze and pleasantly surprise a lot of people in the field just how rich the information is that can be extracted from small areas of the motor cortex,” he said.

From the visual cortex, everything a person sees could theoretically be recorded, albeit likely in low resolution.

Moreover, the implant would be under the skin, meaning it can’t be removed by the user and it can’t be turned off as it needs to maintain the capability of being turned on and off remotely.

Worse yet, the implant can send signals into the brain too. Issuing commands to the motor cortex could make one move involuntarily.

Theoretically, it’s possible to make a remote-controlled human, Hatsopoulos confirmed.

Sending visual signals could make one see things that aren’t there, distract a person, or perhaps obstruct vision with flashes of light, the Neuralink experiments indicate.

Churchland, however, dismissed such concerns as too far removed from the technology’s current reality.

“It’s not physically impossible, but it’s extremely improbable,” he said.

“Concerns about external manipulation, I think, are fanciful for the foreseeable future.”

Level 5: Far From ‘The Matrix’​

Musk expects to go even further. As the electrode insertion technology improves, the implant will be able to reach deep areas of the brain as well, according to the presentation.

Those parts of the brain are responsible for thought activity such as memory processing, emotion, motivation, and abstract thinking.

Yet the know-how for decoding signals from these parts of the brain is so far limited, according to Shimojo.

Machine learning can recognize patterns with a high degree of probability, but some level of ambiguity may be “intrinsic,” he said.

“The brain is complicated and one neuron is not participating in one task. The same neuron can be participating in different networks for entirely different purposes. It’s really highly context-dependent and environment-dependent.”

Whether it’s possible to fully decode such thought processes remains an open question.

Even among neuroscientists, there are different opinions,” he said, noting that such difficulties may need “some clever creativity to deal with.”

So is this eventually overcome? It may be, but it’s very long-run. It’s not as easy as those demonstrations may indicate.

Hypothetically, the ability to truly read and write in deeper areas of the brain would raise profound ethical and philosophical questions.

Accessing memory processing centers, for example, would open another floodgate of privacy and security issues, according to Miliefsky, from password theft to national, corporate, and personal secret exfiltration.

“There is not a single computer on the internet that I would say is safe and secure from a loss of privacy or having enough security that you could say, ‘Jimmy, who’s got the implant, all of his private thoughts are still secure.’ And it’s not going to happen,” he said.

Furthermore, linking brain parts responsible for decision-making with an AI would put in question the integrity of free will, Shimojo argued.

“If you and AI together make a decision about an action, is that your free will or is it hybrid free will?” he asked.

Is it ok for people? Is it ok for society? What‘s going to happen to elections, for instance?

As Musk explained during multiple talks, interfacing with an AI is actually the primary goal of why he pursued the implant technology to begin with.

His original motivation for starting Neuralink, he said, was to address the rapid development of artificial intelligence.

During the presentation and in previous talks, he opined that as AI develops, it’s likely to far surpass human intelligence. At that point, even if it turns out to be benevolent, it may treat humans as a lower life form.

We’ll be like the house cat,” he said at the Recode’s Code Conference in 2016.

The solution would be to prevent AI power from getting centralized in a few hands, he argued.

Read more here...
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Europe's Energy Crisis Is Just Getting Started​

FRIDAY, DEC 23, 2022 - 12:30 AM
Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,
  • While Europe managed to fill its gas storage ahead of winter this year, it will have to import huge amounts of LNG in a competitive market to survive next winter.
  • The next 12 to 24 months will be critical in establishing whether Europe can stave off a long-term energy crisis.
  • According to the IEA, if Russian gas supply drops to zero and Chinese LNG demand hits 2021 levels, the EU could have a supply-demand gap of 27 billion cubic meters in 2023.
Despite successfully filling its gas storage ahead of winter this year, Europe’s energy crisis is far from over. The situation for Europe could, in fact, be worse next winter when Russian pipeline gas supply will be down to a trickle, at best.

European households and businesses have already seen a rise in total energy costs by $1.06 trillion (1 trillion euros), according to estimates by European economic think-tank Bruegel published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). According to Bruegel’s analysts, if governments in Europe do nothing except offer financial support, and if they cover the price increases, this sum would represent a massive 6% of the annual GDP of the EU.

“Massive government support could delay adjustment to a new price equilibrium and create the need for even more support,” Bruegel’s experts say.

Instead, the EU needs a “grand bargain” to encourage savings and increase supply at the same time.

The next 12 to 24 months will determine whether Europe will be able to cope with the energy crisis without having to resort to mandatory rationing or without losing too much industry competitiveness.

Europe’s energy systems were already put to the first real test this month amid an Arctic blast that swept through most of northwestern Europe, bringing freezing temperatures, snow in the UK, and depressing wind speeds in Germany.

Natural gas storage sites in the EU started to drain, with storage at 84% as of December 17, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. Inventories are higher than at this time last year, but the true test for Europe will come next year when it will have to refill gas storage sites adequately enough to meet the 2023/2024 winter demand.

This is where the planning becomes trickier, depending on how low inventories will be after this winter and whether the EU has the capacity to haul in continued record volumes of LNG and continue outbidding Asia, especially if demand in China rebounds after a reopening from strict Covid curbs.

With lower gas consumption and not much Russian gas flowing via pipelines, the EU has continued to cut its dependence on Russia, from around 40% of imported gas supplies before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, to less than 9%, according to EU figures from September.

However, the significant drop in Russian gas supply this year occurred only in June.

Ahead of winter 2023/2024, the gap in gas supply in Europe will be much wider without Russian gas. Europe will not be importing much Russian gas—or none at all if Russia cuts off deliveries via the one link left operational via Ukraine and via TurkStream—compared to relatively stable imports from Russia in the first half of this year before Moscow started gradually cutting volumes via Nord Stream in June and then shut down the pipeline in early September.

According to a recent report from the IEA, if Russian gas supply drops to zero and Chinese LNG demand rebounds to 2021 levels, the EU could have a gas supply-demand gap of 27 billion cubic meters in 2023.

With the plunge in Russian pipeline gas deliveries, Europe will need “huge volumes” of LNG next year, commodity trader Trafigura said earlier this month.

“Looking forward, we expect gas and LNG markets to remain volatile,” Trafigura said in its annual report for the year to September 30.​
“While Europe should avoid a blackout this winter by drawing on inventories and cutting demand, it will need to import huge volumes of LNG in 2023 given the massive reduction in flows from Russia,” Trafigura said.​

Natural gas prices in Europe will have to remain elevated so that the continent can continue to attract most of the LNG cargoes in competition with the other key demand centers, according to Trafigura. The commodity trader expects Europe to prioritize the security of supply “through next winter and beyond.”

Huge uncertainties with weather and the EU’s ability to compete with a potential increase in LNG demand in Asia will determine how Europe will fare next winter.

“Behind us now are two months of ‘buyer’s market’ with peak inventories, warm weather, a long queue of LNG ships, and depressed TTF prices,” commodity analysts Ole Hvalbye and Bjarne Schieldrop of SEB Bank said in early December.​
“Ahead of us is the huge Q1 uncertainty and at least 12 months of ‘seller’s market’ as the race is on to fill EU nat gas inventories to a satisfying level by October 2023.”​
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Understanding ESG Objectives And Goals In The Era Of Greenwashing

FRIDAY, DEC 23, 2022 - 04:20 AM
Authored by Timothy M. Doyle via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Greenwashing – the practice of exaggerating your environmental, social, and governance (ESG) credentials, both to attract more investment dollars and to hide the reality of poor ESG performance – has become increasingly problematic in the investment world. Eugenia Unanyants-Jackson, the Global Head of ESG at PGIM, the investment management business of Prudential Financial* with over $1.2 trillion in assets under management, recently published a white paperon ESG and greenwashing. Last month, I sat down with her to discuss greenwashing, ESG strategy and goals, subjectivity, trade-offs, shielding poor economic performance, and ESG-related commitments.

Unanyants-Jackson argues that more greenwashing is occurring because there is “a strong commercial imperative for investors to move more of their assets into some kind of ESG focused strategies.” There is also a rising “perception” of greenwashing, based on ESG’s subjectivity in its definition and expectations, that has made developing investment strategies more difficult. It is therefore critical for asset managers to understand an investor’s objectives and determine which strategy to use to reach their goals. Unanyants-Jackson described two ways that ESG can add value for investors. The first is by using a strategy that “manages investment risk and helps identify investment opportunities which arise from ESG factors.” These risks appear when analyzing the data regarding a company’s poor performance on ESG factors such as those related to climate, workforce, and corporate-governance practices. An ESG analysis allows an asset manager to identify those risks and may create opportunities that otherwise would have been missed.

The second way for ESG to create value – albeit value not necessarily captured by investors in financial returns – is by helping investors “generate environmental and social benefits … alongside financial returns.” While this second aspect is not mainstream, it is growing globally as investors increasingly express their desire to have an “impact.” However, it also adds to the complexity of ESG, given the subjectivity and heterogeneity in desired impact strategies. Some investors care more about climate change, while others are more focused on workforce development. These sometimes-conflicting objectives become more difficult to achieve when investors have different time horizons or expected risk-adjusted returns for their investments. Therefore, Unanyants-Jackson argues that ESG should be “definitely not one size fits all, [rather] it’s 1,000 sizes . . . to fit millions of different needs.” It has also meant that companies are increasingly using greenwashing to fit the growing list of investor needs.

Furthermore, while ESG is criticized for being too subjective, she argues that “all investing is subjective and in fact the capital markets function better as a result.”

The positive rationale Unanyants-Jackson sees in regard to ESG’s subjectivity also applies to ESG ratings and rankings. She argues this is why there’s a “very low correlation among different ESG ratings.” Raters and rankers “weigh different issues in different ways . . . [with] very different objectives.” However, even the best-known raters still focus on ESG “risk and opportunity.” This is why a company’s high ESG rating still means a low ESG risk. However, a “low ESG risk doesn’t mean necessarily [a] positive impact on the environment or society.”

However, when ESG goals conflict or when investment returns are equally as important to the investor as other ESG issues, there will need to be trade-offs. Impact investing, for example, has traditionally been thought of as concessionary for the trade-off of higher returns in exchange for a measurable impact. However, according to Unanyants-Jackson, the concept of “impact investing” may be changing because investors are beginning to expect venture capital-like returns. She characterizes these types of investments as “high risk and high reward,” but with a solutions-based approach to sustainability issues.

Excluded sectors such as those that are energy-related are currently outperforming the market, but Unanyants-Jackson argues that this could easily change. Furthermore, ESG investing transcends some of this market fluctuation because it’s part of the “sustainability megatrend.” These megatrends, she argues, can lead to good long-term investment results. However, ESG has become so broad and encompasses so many factors that investment success really depends on the “investable universe, investment style, [as well as] . . . the economic conditions around us.” This ultimately is why it’s so difficult to prove ESG strategies perform better than the broader market, especially through a short-term outlook.

Corporate ESG commitments have recently been a topic of concern for investors, says Unanyants-Jackson. She argues that these commitments are important for raising awareness about climate change, among other issues. Investors increasingly want to see companies set high-level, ambitious targets. There are essentially two approaches to ESG commitments. The first involves setting an ambitious target and providing the necessary resources to create an implementation plan. While these plans can take two or three years to create, if there is no action after that time frame, there would likely be a real cause for concern for investors.

The other option is to create an implementation plan and refrain from declaring any ambitious target until it’s sufficiently put into action. This may well become the preferred option if the SEC’s proposed climate-disclosure rule is implemented, given its disclosure mandate regarding targets. Under the SEC’s proposed climate disclosure rules, targets would have to be listed, explained, and filed with the SEC. Regardless of which approach is adopted, improving the quality and availability of data to investors is vitally important. Without proper data on targets and plans, asset managers would be forced to make assumptions about the viability of an issuer’s climate-related targets and plans for their investment decisions. In addition, while Unanyants-Jackson acknowledges an increased use of ESG goals to shield poor economic performance, active investment managers are typically able to decipher this by analyzing the data.

International commitments have also been championed as progress toward addressing the risks of global climate change. Unanyants-Jackson argues in support of these types of commitments, such as those made through the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) at COP26 to accelerate the decarbonization of the economy.

Recently, however, these commitments have come under scrutiny because of the impact of world events and the U.N.’s “increasingly stringent” decarbonization commitments. Both have led some to reassess their GFANZ membership, including some of the world’s largest banks, which have threatened to pull out, citing increased litigation risk and anticipated U.S. congressional oversight. In addition, a group of U.S. senators sent a letter to more than 50 of the largest law firms raising concerns about antitrust issues surrounding these types of commitments. A day later, GFANZ indicated that it would allow its members to drop their commitment to phase out fossil fuels, citing antitrust concerns.

What was abundantly clear from our discussion is that greenwashing, or “ESG washing,” will continue to have a significant impact on ESG-related discussions. Whether greenwashing is used to hide a poor environmental record or low ESG rating, to shield a company’s economic performance, or to minimize ROI “trade-offs” in certain ESG investment strategies, it is likely that both Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill will be closely monitoring its increased usage.

* Prudential Financial is a member of the Bipartisan Policy Center.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

US Durable Goods Orders Plunge In November, Biggest Drop Since COVID​

FRIDAY, DEC 23, 2022 - 05:55 AM

Following a plunge in Leading Economic Indicators (offset by the unexpectedly strong revision to GDP), US Durable Goods Orders tumbled 2.1% MoM in preliminary November data (considerably worse than the 1.0% drop expected)....


Source: Bloomberg

That is the biggest MoM drop since the COVID lockdowns and slowest YoY growth since Feb 2021.

Non-defense aircraft & parts fell 36.4%, while defense aircraft & parts declined 8.6%.
Non-defense capital goods shipments ex-aircraft, which feed directly into GDP calculations, declined by 0.1%.

Rising economic uncertainty and rapid Fed rate hikes are revealed in softening capex intentions, which indicate that a soft patch likely lies ahead...


Source: Bloomberg

...and one wonders if this is the start of a trend in orders as ISM Manufacturing (sentiment) is collapsing?


Source: Bloomberg

Is this what Powell wants?
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

UMich Inflation Expectations Tumble To 18-Month Lows​


FRIDAY, DEC 23, 2022 - 07:07 AM

After this morning's 'disappointingly' hotter than expected PCE print, all eyes are now on the UMich inflation expectations for any signs of hope for a dovish Fed into the Xmas weekend.

This is the final print for December (so really should not be a huge market mover unless things shifted dramatically intra-month)... and it did!

The 1-year inflation expectation dropped from 4.6% flash to 4.4% final (from 4.9% in November)... the lowest since June 2021


Source: Bloomber

But we caution that inflation uncertainty remains extremely high....



The final headline UMich rose from November and the flash print, with expectations leading the way...


Source: Bloomberg

Assessments of personal finances, both current and future, are essentially unchanged from November.

Buying conditions improved very marginally but home-buying attitudes remain near multi-decade record lows...


Source: Bloomberg

However, sentiment remains relatively downbeat at 15% below a year ago, but consumers’ extremely negative attitudes have softened this month on the basis of easing pressures from inflation.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Inflation Split Between Declining Goods Prices And Higher Services​

FRIDAY, DEC 23, 2022 - 08:26 AM
This morning’s mixed data highlight the divergence between still-climbing costs for services, like housing (although it now appears that the Fed is now realizing that the CPI index is 1 year delayed), and falling goods - both durable and non-durable - prices.



As BBG's Felize Maranz observes this morning, cheaper gasoline has clearly been cheering consumer sentiment, but the overall direction of inflation remains troubling (at least as long as the Fed is guided by the 12-month lagging CPI/OER data). That complicates the Fed’s dilemma as it seeks to cool, but not crush, the economy — and poses risk for assets like equities.

A look at PCE month-over-month drivers shows drops for autos and energy along with higher recreation and food:



As Maranz notes, these trends are reflected in recent company earnings, like CarMax’s miss and Nike’s bid to offload bloated inventories, as well (our warning from this May about collapsing goods prices due to the reverse Bullwhip effect turned out to be spot on). Durable goods orders also surprised to the downside and capex is losing steam.

Lower demand ahead - as per Micron’s warning - will lead to slower growth, which will help tame inflation. But that’s a careful-what-you-wish-for situation as well, and looks set to hurt equities in the short term, especially as the narrative turns from inflation to lack of growth and recession while the Fed looks on and does nothing.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Hotter Than Expected In November​

FRIDAY, DEC 23, 2022 - 08:39 AM

'Twas the last trading day before Christmas and all through the market, not a trader was twitching... until today's PCE print hits...

The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE Deflator - printed slightly hotter than expected in November +4.7% YoY vs +4.6% exp (MoM was in-line at +0.2% after an upward revision for October)...


Source: Bloomberg

That is below the 4.8% forecast in the FOMC’s December SEP.


As a reminder, it appears the Fed's latest forecast (above) in fact ignored the latest CPI slowdown print also.

Simply put, for the FOMC's forecast to be hit, December's PCE would have to accelerate significantly (which most analysts see as highly unlikely).

What that means is that The Fed will be forced to admit that inflation is slowing faster than they expected - which is implicitly dovish from their 'higher for longer' narrative. However, it seems all the excitement will be left for

And judging by the lagged M2 flow, inflation is set to slow even more dramatically from here...


Source: Bloomberg

All the major contributors slowed in November...


Source: Bloomberg

Away from the headline inflation signal, Americans' spending rose less than expected while income rose slightly more than expected (with real spending disappointingly unchanged MoM)


Source: Bloomberg

YoY Spending growth is at its slowest since Feb 2021...


Source: Bloomberg

Wage growth has slowed back to pre-COVID levels with Govt wages +5.5% (vs 6.1% in Oct and vs 5.0% pre-COVID), and private worker wages: 4.9% (vs 4.7% in Oct and 3.5% pre-COVID)...



Finally, the savings rate ticked up very very modestly to 2.4% (but is hovering near 17 year lows)...


Source: Bloomberg

More credit and less savings will make the new year not so fun for all.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Friday Flight Cancellations Top 4,000, Disrupting Christmas Travel For Millions​

FRIDAY, DEC 23, 2022 - 09:40 AM

Update (1240ET):
Air travel disruptions continued to worsen Friday morning into the early afternoon.

Flight tracking website FlightAware reported more than 4,000 flights within, into, or out of the US were canceled. Another 4,300 were delayed due to adverse weather conditions as a powerful winter storm and arctic blast battered the country's eastern half.



FlightAware's Misery Map shows the highest cancellations at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport, Denver International Airport, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, and Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport.



Ryan Maue, a private meteorologist, tweeted a stunning temperature anomaly chart of the Lower 48, indicating much of the country will be "more than 20°F below average at 1130 AM ET."

1671831995766.png

* * *
More than 150 million Americans are under weather alerts as a massive winter storm moves east across the US, blanketing regions with accumulating snow and leaving behind dangerously cold weather. Adverse weather conditions have been enough to cause the second day of travel chaos across the country's eastern half, just one day before Christmas weekend.

After 2,500 flights were canceled Thursday, another 3,100 have been canceled as of 0600 ET Friday, according to flight tracking site FlightAware. These flights include within, into, or out of the US. About 800 have been delayed so far.

FlightAware shows New York's LaGuardia, Detroit, Seattle, Chicago, Denver, and Boston airports have the most cancellations and delays.



The peak intensity of the winter storm is forecasted today over the Great Lakes. Blizzard conditions are anticipated from eastern Wisconsin and far northeastern Illinois to portions of Michigan, northern Indiana, northern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and western New York. The storm will also usher in fridge temperatures for the easter half of the US, making this Christmas weekend the coldest in four decades.

FlightAware's Misery Map shows the storm impacting major airports.



Even though the storm has passed the central part of the US, an arctic blast lingers and is pushing eastward today.



1671832072040.png

By Christmas, average temperatures across the Lower 48 will begin to rebound from 25 degrees Fahrenheit (well below a 30-year trend) to nearly 50 degrees by Jan. 1.



Rebound in temperatures next week is why natural gas prices are sinking lower. Now we wait for the next cold blast.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

IRS Delays $600 Gig-Tax Rule​

FRIDAY, DEC 23, 2022 - 09:45 AM

The Internal Revenue Service on Friday announced they are delaying new tax-reporting requirements for millions of Americans who made more than $600 of income from e-commerce platforms such as Ebay, Etsy and AirBnB.

The one-year reprieve means that said e-commerce platforms will not give the tax agency information on users whose income exceeds the $600 level, nor will they be required to provide sellers with a blizzard of 1099-k tax forms in early 2023. As the Wall Street Journal notes, this also means that opponents of the $600 rule can push for a change in the law next year.

"The additional time will help reduce confusion during the coming 2023 tax filing season and provide more time for taxpayers to prepare and understand the new reporting requirements," according to Acting IRS Commissioner Doug O'Donnell.

Congress passed the $600 threshold for Form 1099-K reports as part of the American Rescue Plan Act in March 2021, scheduling it to take effect for tax year 2022. Until the change, platforms had to report users’ income to the IRS if they had more than 200 transactions and $20,000 of revenue. Lawmakers lowered the threshold to boost tax compliance in an area where it is often lacking—unreported business income.

In the waning days of this year’s congressional session, lawmakers in both parties discussed raising the $600 threshold or delaying implementation. After those efforts failed this week, the IRS stepped in with the delay. Treasury and IRS officials said Friday that they hope to work with industry groups over the next year to make sure the forms go to the right taxpayers. -WSJ

The rule was set to affect millions of gig workers who are independent contractors and haven't been reporting income on their tax returns. What's more, the law didn't differentiate between people running a business, and those who are "casual" sellers who are cleaning out closets and attics.

What's more, the gross revenue on the form isn't necessarily all income depending on the cost basis of the items being sold, or whether the items were inherited and are now worth less than their value on the date of the death.

The delay doesn't change what income is taxable, however, just what information the IRS will receive. Gig workers are still required to track and report all income, they just won't have e-commerce sales platforms ratting them out.

As the Journal also notes, the reporting rules aren't aimed at people using Venmo or other payment apps for gifts or splitting the cost of meals.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Things That Won't Happen In 2023​

FRIDAY, DEC 23, 2022 - 10:05 AM
By Dario Perkins, chief strategist of TS Lombard

Things That Won't Happen In 2023
  • A light-hearted take on 2023, with big consensus-busting “non-forecasts”
  • Such as Powell takes his Volcker obsession too far; BoE needs a bailout…
  • …CBDCs realize the conspiracy theorists’ nightmare; Brexit, what Brexit?
Since we first published our annual “Things that won’t happen” outlook in 2015, writing outlandish non-forecasts has become considerably more difficult. Back then, nobody would have taken us seriously if we had said Donald Trump would become US president or the UK would quit the EU or there would be a two-year pandemic with rolling global lockdowns.

And the surprises kept on coming in 2022. Suddenly we had central bankers who didn’t seem to care about the stock market (except when trading their own PA positions), equity strategists forecasting actual market declines (admittedly only after their first 15 Buy-The-Dip recommendations had failed) and England not winning the World Cup (again). Meanwhile, nobody could have known that cryptocurrencies were just digital tulips or that paying millions for Jpeg monkey pictures – freely available to anyone with a smart phone – was a bad idea. Anyway, humbled by the silliness of real life, here are some things that won’t happen in 2023 (probably…).



#PivotsAreForWimps
In 2022, Jerome Powell made no secret of his admiration for every central bankers’ hero, Paul Volcker, the 6ft7in former Fed chair who famously broke the back of inflation in the early 1980s. Powell promised to learn from the experience of the 1970s and 1980s, ‘keeping at it’ until he had slain the inflation monster once again. But in 2023, after another global energy shock pushes inflation to its highest-ever level, Powell takes his unrequited bromance with Mr Volcker a step too far, donning two-inch platform shoes and a rumpled dark suit and casually puffing on a large cigar at every public engagement. Things get out of hand in August, as US interest rates hit 25% and Powell insists on entering his FOMC press conference to the tune of “Eye of the Tiger”. His embarrassment is complete when he is finally doxxed on #fintwitter as @IHeartVolcker79 (check out his Twitter feed, which is totally dedicated to “Big Paul” and even includes the occassional love poem). Not to be out done, Christine Lagarde tries to revive the ECB’s own monetary heritage, inviting Otmar Issing to run the economics department at the ECB and forcing all officials to read the historical works of Karl-Otto Pöhl. The BoE’s Andrew Bailey treads a path of defiant British exceptionalism, giving a speech on “Why 15% inflation isn’t really that bad”.



War games
A full-scale nuclear crisis is triggered after an unidentified projectile – thought to be the ball from Harry Kane's missed penalty re-entering the Earth’s atmosphere – passes through Russian airspace in February. Vladimir Putin once again steps up the readiness of his nuclear arsenal, this time to the “I’m absolutely not kidding, this is totally serious, just try me” level and NATO responds accordingly. War is averted only after Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni engages Putin in a game of online Tic-Tac-Toe and the Russian leader suddenly grasps the futility of nuclear engagement. But there is now no stopping the world’s tilt towards deglobalization. Trade barriers continue to build, supply lines shrink, and Western leaders – egged on by central bankers – introduce a new US$5 per day maximum wage and lower the minimum age for full-time employment. At the same time, the US dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency is further tarnished, with Trump’s new trading cards emerging as a viable alternative.

The ’don’t-call-it-a-bailout’ Bank of England
As the Bank of England starts to make huge losses on its enormous QE holdings, it quickly becomes apparent that the central bank requires an urgent bailout. After the failure to sell the institution (at a steep discount) to a syndicate involving Elon Musk and the PBoC, the Treasury has no choice but to take the BoE back into government hands. But renationalization comes with stinging conditions, including a strict cap on central banker bonuses, a vastly reduced menu in the lunchtime canteen and the cancellation of the annual staff sports day (which does, in fact, exist…). Andrew Bailey even agrees to take a haircut, albeit under great duress. More than 12,000 members of the Bank’s core forecasting team resign when the government unveils a strict performance-related wage structure.

(Fortunately, the ECB is still hiring and its internal pay structure is totally detached from the accuracy of its staff projections – in fact, the bigger the forecast errors, the larger the wage deals.)



Just because you’re paranoid…
The conspiracy theorists’ worst fears are realized when several central banks unveil CBDCs as a new weapon in the war on inflation. These new digital currencies not only give the authorities a direct means of controlling the CPI – since officials can monitor and adjust the price of millions of goods in real time; central banks find they can even have the power to manipulate consumer behavior in ways they had never previously dared to imagine. Thinking of paying more than 2% extra on your weekly groceries? Here’s a small electric jolt to make you think again! Bidding up the price of that item on eBay or in a virtual queue for those just-released concert tickets? Let’s see you do that when the battery life on your smart phone suddenly goes to zero! Demanding a 10% wage hike? Here’s your very own personalized “price stability surcharge”! And don’t worry about filing a tax return, for your convenience we can just make the cash disappear from your bank account! Eventually the public get wise to CBDC manipulation and go back to traditional safe havens, such as digital monkeys, shitcoins and meme stocks.

2016 mystery solved!
Something started to go profoundly wrong for the UK economy in 2016. Investment plunged, exports cratered – particularly those to our main trading partners – and the UK was suddenly less attractive to foreign workers. Many businesses are now suffering acute labor shortages and the NHS is on its knees, with waiting lists of up to 97 years. Weirdly, nobody has been able to identify what caused this sudden deterioration in the UK’s performance.

Even British politicians – who, with their PPE and classics degrees, number among the smartest and best educated in the world – can offer nothing more than an inaudible mumble when asked how they might restore UK prosperity. Sometimes it’s as if they know the answer but don’t want to talk about it, like they are ignoring a giant pink elephant in the corner of the room. Fortunately, the mystery is solved in 2023 with the help of 175 PhD economists and an “event study” based on literally everything that happened in 2016. And it turns out the answer was staring us in the face: it must have been the discovery of Roman tablets at the site of Bloomberg’s new offices in London. The building is demolished, the tablets reburied, and the UK posts a remarkable boom. “Cool Britannia” is back!

Artificial Economists
TS Lombard will discover that everything their economists do can be outsourced – at no charge – to Artificial Intelligence software, including the writing of their seminal “Things that won’t happen” report. I’m not joking. Asked to make some “funny economic predictions about 2023”, here is what ChatGPT came up with. DO NOT SHOW THIS TO MY BOSS:
  1. A new fashion trend of wearing clothes made entirely out of money will emerge, leading to a decrease in the amount of physical cash in circulation and curing the inflation problem.
  2. A group of economists will discover that the key to a successful economy is dancing, which will lead to mandatory dance parties being introduced at all workplaces.
  3. A group of rebellious teenagers will start a movement to boycott paying taxes, causing the government to resort to collecting taxes in the form of memes.
  4. A new cryptocurrency called "LOLcoin” will emerge and quickly gain popularity, prompting many people to invest their life savings in it.
  5. The "Taco Tuesday Index" will become the leading indicator of consumer confidence, as people's willingness to splurge on Mexican food during the week becomes a key metric for economists to track.
  6. The stock market will crash after a group of rebellious llamas take over the New York Stock Exchange and start trading banana stocks.
We are SO doomed.
 
Top