GOV/MIL Main "Great Reset" Thread

marsh

On TB every waking moment

"Running On Thin Ice": OPEC Head Warns Of Oil Squeeze​


WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 - 06:04 AM

Crude oil prices have slumped to six-month lows, driven by a mounting wall of worries: US recession, China's zero-Covid policy and real estate sector implosion, Russian production recovering, US SPR releases, and the possibility of a nuclear agreement between Iran, the EU, and the US that could unleash new supplies into global markets.

On Wednesday morning, the October contract of Brent on the Intercontinental Exchange tagged a six-month low of $91.58 a barrel while the new head of OPEC offered a sobering reality that global oil markets face an increased risk of a supply squeeze due to declining spare production capacity.

OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais sat down with Bloomberg Television and said speculation fears over slowing consumption in China and the rest of the world had been greatly exaggerated.

Al-Ghais said producers in OPEC are nearing the upper limits of additional supplies they can deliver to the market:

"We are running on thin ice, if I may use that term, because spare capacity is becoming scarce. The likelihood of a squeeze is there."

None of this should come as a surprise to readers, as we pointed out in June that WSJ's energy correspondent Summer Said that Saudi Arabia's production stands around 10.5 million bpd and has a production capacity ceiling of 12 million bpd. That means the potential output increase is only 1.5 million bpd. And another million bpd in five years. In other words, the Kingdom's ability to increase spare capacity appears limited.

And here's where things get interesting: Al-Ghais remains confident global oil demand will increase by 3 million barrels per day as China reopens from Covid-related lockdowns.

"China is still a source of phenomenal growth," he said. "We haven't seen China open up exactly -- there's a strict Covid Zero policy -- I think that will have an impact when China gets back to full steam."

As explained by the OPEC head, the reason for a production capacity ceiling is that "chronic underinvestment for several years is really what's taken us to where we are today."

On the subject of additional flows from Iran, he said that as long as they are released orderly, global oil demand will absorb those supplies.

Ahead of the next OPEC+ meeting on Sept. 5, Al-Ghais said it's still too early what the 23-nation group will agree on:

"We've demonstrated time and time again in the past that we're willing to do whatever it takes to do what the market really requires," Al-Ghais said.

So the takeaway here is more confirmation that spare production capacity and rising global fossil fuel demand could squeeze markets when China reopens.

Goldman Sach's Damien Courvalin still maintains a 3mo $125 a barrel and 6mo $130 a barrel Brent price targets.

the full Bloomberg interview:

Video on website 1 min ad 16:25 min on the video
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

White House Climate Science Overseer Sanctioned And Barred By The National Academy Of Sciences

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 - 09:05 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

A senior White House climate advisor has been sanctioned by the National Academy of Sciences for violating its ethics policies.

Axios reports that Jane Lubchenco, the deputy director for climate and environment at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, has been pulled up by the NAS for editing a paper later found to contain technical errors, as well as having worked with the scientists involved in it, one of which turned out to be her brother-in law.

Lubchenco was found to have violated NAS Code of Conduct Section 3, which states that “NAS members shall avoid those detrimental research practices that are clear violations of the fundamental tenets of research.”

The section also notes “Members should be fair and objective peer reviewers, maintain confidentiality when requested, promptly move to correct the literature when errors in their own work are detected, include all deserving authors on publications, and give appropriate credit to prior work in citations.”

Axios notes that Lubchenco commented “I accept these sanctions for my error in judgment in editing a paper authored by some of my research collaborators — an error for which I have publicly stated my regret.”

The report also notes that GOP Representatives Frank Lucas of Oklahoma, Stephanie Bice of Oklahoma and Jay Obernolte of California wrote an open letter in February calling for the White House to ” consider whether Dr. Lubchenco’s leading role in the Administration’s scientific integrity efforts undermines public confidence in future policy decisions.”

The Republicans also noted that “As an editor at the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), Dr. Lubchenco demonstrated a clear disregard for rules meant to prevent conflicts of interest in publishing peer-reviewed studies.”

“Now, Dr. Lubchenco is playing a leading role in developing and overseeing this Administration’s best practices for scientific integrity. Her violation of one of the core tenets of scientific integrity makes her current leadership role very troubling,” the GOP reps. added.

Lubchenco is still inhabiting the role at the White House and has been tweeting and retweeting material related to the so called green energy ‘transition’:
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

CDC Announces Overhaul After Botching Pandemic

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 - 09:22 AM

After more than two years of missteps and backpedaling over Covid-19 guidance that had a profound effect on Americans' lives, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) announced on Wednesday that the agency would undergo a complete overhaul - and will revamp everything from its operations to its culture after failing to meet expectations during the pandemic, Bloomberg reports.

Director Rochelle Walensky began telling CDC’s staff Wednesday that the changes are aimed at replacing the agency’s insular, academic culture with one that’s quicker to respond to emergencies. That will mean more rapidly turning research into health recommendations, working better with other parts of government and improving how the CDC communicates with the public. -Bloomberg

"For 75 years, CDC and public health have been preparing for Covid-19, and in our big moment, our performance did not reliably meet expectations," said Director Rochelle Walensky. "I want us all to do better and it starts with CDC leading the way.  My goal is a new, public health action-oriented culture at CDC that emphasizes accountability, collaboration, communication and timeliness."

As Bloomberg further notes, The agency has been faulted for an inadequate testing and surveillance program, for not collecting important data on how the virus was spreading and how vaccines were performing, for being too under the influence of the White House during the Trump administration and for repeated challenges communicating to a politically divided and sometimes skeptical public."

A few examples:
Walensky made the announcement in a Wednesday morning video message to CDC staff, where she said that the US has 'significant work to do' in order to improve the country's public health defenses.

"Prior to this pandemic, our infrastructure within the agency and around the country was too frail to tackle what we confronted with Covid-19," she said. "To be frank, we are responsible for some pretty dramatic, pretty public mistakes — from testing, to data, to communications."

1660781032803.png

The CDC overhaul comes on the heels of the agency admitting that "unvaccinated people now have the same guidance as vaccinated people" - and that those exposed to COVID-19 are no longer required to quarantine.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Are Oil Prices Set For A Comeback?

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 - 09:45 AM
By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Oil prices have given up in recent weeks all the gains they had made since the Russian invasion of Ukraine as market fears of recession intensified.

There are signs of slowing economic growth, which could dent oil demand. But oil market participants and analysts are struggling to estimate how much demand could suffer in a recession that will be nothing like the 2008/2009 credit collapse and crisis.

Bearish factors are dominating current market sentiment, but some analysts say that paper traders may have already priced in too much fear of recession.

At the same time, the U.S. labor market is outperforming expectations, defying other gloomy signals that America’s economy is slowing. Moreover, annual inflation in the U.S. in July eased from the previous month due to lower gasoline prices.

Still, bearish sentiment currently prevails on the oil market, as participants are paying more attention to recession fears, the steady Russian oil exports contrary to early expectations of massive losses in the region of 3 million bpd, and weaker Chinese factory activity and snap COVID-related lockdowns weighing on fuel demand.

Imminent bullish signals include the hurricane season in the United States this month and next, where severe storms and hurricanes could force shut-ins at Gulf of Mexico production platforms or preemptive shut-ins at refineries along the Gulf Coast. Another bullish factor by the end of the year could emerge from the end of the U.S. SPR releases, currently expected to end in October. At the same time, U.S. oil producers are not boosting output too much—even at $100 oil—due to continued capital discipline, supply chain constraints, and cost inflation. The full effect of the EU ban on imports of Russian seaborne oil, expected to kick in at the end of the year, is also challenging to estimate, as is the impact of a possible price cap on Russian oil, which would allow insurance and other services for Russia’s crude if buyers commit to buy it at or below a certain price.

Recession Fears

The oil market, however, is currently in the grip of concerns about a global recession and demand destruction. Recession fears in Europe have intensified amid the sky-rocketing energy prices and low supply of Russian pipeline gas which is forcing companies in some energy-intensive industries to curtail production. In the UK, the Bank of England warned last week that the country is expected to enter a recession from the fourth quarter of this year, which will last until the end of 2023.

The net long speculative positions—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI had dropped to a very low level as of early August due to fears of a recession and softening global economic growth, SEB bank said in a research note earlier this week.

The physical crude market is also losing steam due to fears of an economic slowdown or recessions, traders told Reuters this week.

“The market is very bearish at this moment. No one is in a hurry to buy,” a trader based in Singapore told Reuters.

Yet, the labor market in the U.S. remains strong, and the latest employment data far exceeded analyst estimates. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 528,000 in July, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5%, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said last week. The numbers smashed Dow Jones estimates of 258,000 job additions and a 3.6% unemployment rate.

“The report throws cold water on a significant cooling in labor demand, but it’s a good sign for the broader U.S. economy and worker,” Michael Gapen, an economist at Bank of America, said in a note cited by CNBC.

Some analysts say the 9% drop in WTI Crude futures last week was exaggerated, and the economic concerns could be overblown.

Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics in London, told Houston Chronicle: “The big picture,” she said, “is that the market could be pricing in too much recession fear.”

The near-term oil price movement will be led by the economic picture, inflation, and interest rate hikes, but some bullish factors could tip the sentiment back to rallying prices. These include very low global spare capacity, OPEC+’s inability to pump much more than it is producing now, and the wild card Russia and its standoff with the West. It will become clearer in the coming months how Russian supply to the markets could be affected and whether Putin will simply stop selling oil to those countries who join a potential price cap on Russian oil. The proposed price cap includes allowing insurance and other services for Russia’s oil shipment, but Moscow has already said it would not export its oil if the price cap is set below its cost of production.

While some analysts say that oil is headed even lower with recessions looming, others say this recession could be different and not lead to an actual drop in oil demand year over year.

Goldman Sachs, for example, revised down its Brent price forecast for this quarter to $110 a barrel, down from a previous projection of $140 per barrel, but it still believes the case for higher oil prices remains strong.

“We believe that the case for higher oil prices remains strong, even assuming all these negative shocks play out, with the market remaining in a larger deficit than we expected in recent months,” Goldman Sachs’s strategists wrote in the note this week carried by Bloomberg.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
(Germany)

URL unfurl="true"]https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/german-power-prices-hit-record-energy-crisis-worsens[/URL]

German Power Prices Hit Record As Energy Crisis Worsens

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 - 03:55 AM
German power prices surged above 500 euros per megawatt-hour on the European Energy Exchange AG for the first time as the energy crisis worsened.

German year-ahead power jumped 6% to 507 euros per megawatt-hour as there are no signs of the natural gas rally slowing down.

Russia's reduction of NatGas flows via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline and a scorching summer across Europe have been the main drivers of power prices. Since early June, power prices have risen 173%, pressuring households and businesses with unprecedented costs.

"The longer these price rises go up, the more this will be felt across the economy," said Daniel Kral, senior economist at consultant Oxford Economics. "The magnitude of the increase and magnitude of the crisis isn't comparable to anything in the past few decades."

Meanwhile, Europe's benchmark NatGas prices are at the highest intraday price since early March.

"Governments are under pressure to plan for possible blackouts this winter in some European countries. Output from France's nuclear fleet, traditionally the backbone of the region's power system, remains on course to be the lowest in decades, while hydropower stocks in some countries are also at multi-year lows," Bloomberg said.

The standoff continues between Germany and Russia over Nord Stream's turbine stuck in transit after repair work was conducted in Canada. Russia cut the pipeline's capacity to just 20% last month, citing technical problems.

Germany's Economic Minster Robert Habeck warned Monday that Russia was weaponizing the pipeline as an "excuse" to reduce supplies to Europe ahead of winter.

Germany wants to fast-track its path away from Russian NatGas though it may find it very hard because it's used in everything from power plants to factories. It will be a tricky balancing act for the Germans to reduce Russian NatGas supplies as it would only mean higher power prices and heating costs due to tight supplies, which may force industrial shutdowns this winter and some households to resort to using firewood to heat their homes.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Shipping Halted On Rhine Near Kaub Chokepoint Due To Distressed Barge Blocking Waterway​

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 - 05:25 AM

The Rhine Waterways and Shipping Authority (WSA) said a vessel was blocking the Rhine River south of Cologne, Germany, on Wednesday after an engine issue caused it to run aground.



A section of Europe's most important inland waterway for transporting fuel and other industrial goods, between St. Goar and Oberwesel, was closed, according to WSA.

Bloomberg noted the affected vessel comprised of four parts, which must be independently towed away, and the stretch of the river may reopen sometime today.


An alleged video on social media shows the distressed vessel being pulled aside. Also, the dangerously low water levels at this part of the river are pretty noticeable.

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1559828354236399617
.14 min

The incident occurred near the closely watched Kaub chokepoint that is currently registering a depth of 34 centimeters (13.4 inches). Earlier this week, Kaub fell to 30 centimeters (11.8 inches), and below 40 centimeters (15.7 inches), many shippers find it uneconomical to operate barges past Kaub.



Despite today's incident blocking the part of the Rhine and shallow water levels that have made Kaub impassible for some barges (or at least restrict cargo weight on vessels to improve draft), the water level at the critical German waypoint is set to rise to 41 centimeters (16.1 inches) by Saturday, offering some relief to shippers. By Sunday, water levels could be as high as 49 centimeters (19.3 inches).

Disruptions on the Rhine are bad news for Germany and the millions of tons of commodities and other goods shipped through inland Europe amid the worst energy crisis in decades.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Tomato Shortage Emerges In Drought-Stricken Californian As Ketchup Prices Soar​


WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 - 04:20 PM

Days ago, we said the next food insecurity problem that may impact Americans' eating habits could be an emerging potato shortage. Now there appears to be another issue: Tomatoes are getting squeezed, and risks of a ketchup shortage rise as a severe drought batter California's farmland.

California accounts for a quarter of the world's tomato output. The worst drought in 1,200 years has forced farmers to abandon fields as crops turn to dust amid a water crisis.

1660782359700.png

"We desperately need rain ... and are getting to a point where we don't have inventory left to keep fulfilling the market demand," Mike Montna, head of the California Tomato Growers Association, told Bloomberg.

"It's real tough to grow a tomato crop right now," Montna continued, adding, "on one side you have the drought impacting costs because you don't have enough water to grow all your acres, and then you have the farm inflation side of it with fuel and fertilizer costs shooting up."

The lack of water and the soaring cost of farming appears to be a 'perfect storm' in the making that could result in a shortage of all sorts of tomato-based products, including ketchup, salsa, and spaghetti sauce.

Rick Blankenship, Chairman of the Board at California Tomato Research Institute, warned crop yields are "way off this year ... and coupled with drought, we've had high temperatures and that in itself creates an issue where the tomatoes are so hot that they just don't size properly — so you have a lot of tomatoes on a plant, but they are smaller."

Bloomberg said the value for a ton of tomatoes reached an all-time high this year of $105 due to higher input prices, such as diesel and fertilizer, compounded with the drought.

"You would think that it was a home run for growers, but in reality the input costs have gone up so much that the potential profit was all gobbled up," Blankenship said.

R. Greg Pruett, sales and energy manager for Ingomar Packing Co., one of the world's largest tomato processors, said not all customers will get their processed products. The company sells to some of the largest food brands. He said inventories are plunging to critically low levels.

"If you are looking for a significant amount of tomato paste and you haven't already contracted it then you aren't going to get it no matter what the price is," Pruett said, adding, "it's just not there."

Market research firm IRI shows the price of tomato sauce in the last four weeks ended July 10 surged 17% from a year ago, while ketchup jumped 23%.
Besides tomatoes, french fries could be in short supply as the potato crop has suffered from a heatwave. And worse, most of the US beer imports come from northern Mexico, where the region is running out of water.

Ketchup, french fries, and beer could soon be in short supply or experience price hikes due to tightening supply.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
(Canada)

‘Canada’s Road to Beijing’: JCCF lawyer breaks down Charter-threatening digital ID 17:00 min

‘Canada’s Road to Beijing’: JCCF lawyer breaks down Charter-threatening digital ID​

Rebel News Published August 17, 2022

We were joined by lawyer Hatim Kheir to discuss the Justice Centre's recent report on the forthcoming implementation of digital ID in Canada.

^^^

‘Canada’s Road to Beijing’: JCCF lawyer breaks down Charter-threatening digital ID​

We were joined by lawyer Hatim Kheir to discuss the Justice Centre's recent report on the forthcoming implementation of digital ID in Canada.
The Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms recently released a cautionary report warning Canadians about the potential threat to the Charter of Rights and Freedoms that is posed by digital ID. Titled “Canada’s Road to Beijing: The digital threat to the Charter rights and freedoms of Canadians,” the document breaks down the emergence of the dehumanizing social credit system under the Communist Party of China, and the push by Canadian officials to implement digital ID and digital currency. The JCCF warns that these are stepping stones towards Canada becoming a totalitarian social credit state as well.

We were joined by JCCF lawyer Hatim Kheir to discuss the report and to learn more about the implementation of digital ID in Canada. We also delved into how digital ID is used to enforce the Chinese social state.

We asked Kheir to break down the threat that these measures pose to our fundamental rights, and how Canadians can resist the ever-growing totalitarian trends being implemented by Trudeau and company. We also discussed whether digital ID would have facilitated further abuses of power like the bank account freezing and denial of services that occurred throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.

The government seeking to track people is nothing new, but with advancing technologies and concerted pushes by groups like the World Economic Forum (WEF), serious progress is being made towards authorities having live access to our locations, spending habits and private information. That should have you concerned.

Our Expose the Reset docuseries has been casting light on the invasive efforts of the WEF. I urge you to watch the two episodes that are available now here and to keep a keen eye on that website for an upcoming episode that will expose digital ID for what it really is.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
The War on Fertility: If You Want to Understand Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla's Behavior, Just Read Mein Kampf 2:43 min

The War on Fertility: If You Want to Understand Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla's Behavior, Just Read Mein Kampf​

Red Voice Media Published August 17, 2022

"Hitler said, 'If you just keep repeating the lie, make a lie big enough, and tell it often enough, people will believe it.'"

"He [Bourla] never expected or pretended to himself that his job was to tell the truth."

"I've seen the 360-degree harms to human reproduction ... There's nothing to do but conclude that it's an attack on the West and America's ability to reproduce itself in the next generation."

Full Video: The Lies and Conflicts of Interest of Pfizer: Dr. Naomi Wolf [VIDEO]
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

marsh

On TB every waking moment
(Germany)


German Official Trashes Cost of Living Protesters as “Enemies of the State” -
Says they’re extremists who want to overthrow the government.


Published 1 min ago on 17 August, 2022Paul Joseph Watsonpicture alliance via Getty Images17 Comments
A top German official has trashed people who may be planning to protest against energy blackouts as “enemies of the state” and “extremists” who want to overthrow the government.

The interior minister of the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Herbert Reul (CDU), says that anti-mandatory vaxx and anti-lockdown demonstrators have found a new cause – the energy crisis.

In an interview with German news outlet NT, Reul revealed that German security services were keeping an eye on “extremists” who plan to infiltrate the protests and stage violence, with the unrest being planned via the Telegram messenger app, which German authorities have previously tried to ban.

“You can already tell from those who are out there,” said Reul. “The protesters no longer talk about coronavirus or vaccination. But they are now misusing people’s worries and fears in other fields. (…) It’s almost something like new enemies of the state that are establishing themselves.”

Despite the very real threat of potential blackouts, power grid failures and gas shortages, Reul claimed such issues were feeding “conspiracy theory narratives.”

However, it’s no “conspiracy theory” that Germans across the country have been panic buying stoves, firewood and electric heaters as the government tells them thermostats will be limited to 19C in public buildings and that sports arenas and exhibition halls will be used as ‘warm up spaces’ this winter to help freezing citizens who are unable to afford skyrocketing energy bills.

As Remix News reports, blaming right-wing conspiracy theorists for a crisis caused by Germany’s sanctions on Russia and is suicidal dependence on green energy is pretty rich.

“Reul, like the country’s federal interior minister, Nancy Faeser, is attempting to tie right-wing ideology and protests against Covid-19 policies to any potential protests in the winter.”

“While some on the right, such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD), have stressed that the government’s sanctions against Russia are the primary factor driving the current energy crisis, they have not advocated an “overthrow” of the government. Instead, they have stressed the need to restart the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, end energy sanctions against Russia, and push for a peaceful solution to end the war.”

Indeed, energy shortages and the cost of living crisis are issues that are of major concern to everyone, no matter where they are on the political spectrum.

To claim that people worried about heating their homes and putting food on the table this winter are all “enemies of the state” is an utter outrage.

As we highlighted last week, the president of the Thuringian Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Stephan Kramer, said energy crisis riots would make anti-lockdown unrest look like a “children’s birthday party.”

“Mass protests and riots are just as conceivable as concrete acts of violence against things and people, as well as classic terrorism to overthrow it,” Kramer told ZDF.

View: https://youtu.be/jR80q_CEWu4
3:09 min
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Attorneys general file brief in federal travel mask mandate case

States “share an interest in protecting their sovereign authority to enact quarantine measures of their choosing to combat the spread of disease," friend-of-court brief says.

Steve Bittenbender
Updated: August 17, 2022 - 12:07am

Attorneys general from 23 states have filed an amicus brief in a federal appeals court urging judges to uphold a ruling from earlier this year that struck down the mask mandate for interstate travel.

Four months ago, Florida U.S. District Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle sided with the Health Freedom Defense Fund and two Florida residents. They claimed the restriction the Biden Administration announced Jan. 29, 2021, as part of its COVID-19 guidelines exceeded federal authority.

Led by Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody, the states’ attorneys general say in their 37-page filing that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention pursued “expansive” measures in its handling of the pandemic. Officials from the states also remind the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals that federal judges set several other CDC guidelines aside.

The states “share an interest in protecting their sovereign authority to enact quarantine measures of their choosing to combat the spread of disease in the manner best adapted to their distinctive local conditions – authority historically reserved to the states, as CDC’s own regulations reflect even today,” the brief states.

The CDC now recommends passengers in such places as airports and airplanes wear masks, but the mandate is no longer in effect. Still, the Biden Administration has asked the circuit court to intervene.

“It’s astonishing that Biden continues to fight to force mask passengers,” Moody said. “We are once again pushing back, in court, against his unlawful federal overreach.”

The states also claim the mask mandate is unlawful because it goes beyond the CDC’s ability to enforce sanitation measures. They also claim the federal government failed to review what steps states were taking or determine if those measures were sufficient.

Besides Florida, other attorneys general from Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Virginia and West Virginia signed on to the brief.

“The district court’s ruling here correctly ended the Biden Administration’s mandate requiring all travelers to wear masks at airports, train stations, and other transportation hubs,” said Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron. “We joined this brief to support the court’s important ruling and ensure this mandate is not reinstated.”
 

Fairwillows

Where I am supposed to be.
30,000 migrant children shipped across the U.S. before being handed off to unvetted adults 2:09 min

30,000 MIGRANT CHILDREN SHIPPED ACROSS THE U.S. BEFORE BEING HANDED OFF TO UNVETTED ADULTS​

Whistleblower employee from the same company that was caught flying migrants to NYC in the middle of the night estimates that 30,000 migrant children are being shipped across the U.S. before being handed off to unvetted adults.

Full Interview:
View: http://youtu.be/B2IU9FvIJtc
16:13 min
I just watched this a while ago.....puts a fire in my soul...that won't be quenched until these dastards are tried and dealt with by God.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

There Is No Climate Crisis: History Shows Us That The Earth Has Seen Far Worse​

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 - 06:00 PM

Climate science has been so suffocated by ideological zealotry it's becoming difficult just to find normal objective analysis these days. Any piece of data that contradicts the man-made climate change narrative is surrounding by a spin machine that either dismisses the information or obscures it in a deluge of global warming propaganda, inoculating the reader well before they get a chance to digest the news that maybe climate change is not all it's cracked up to be.

Whenever high temperatures are reported in the US or Europe the news is hyperinflated into wild theories of climate Apocalypse by the media, but weather history suggests that the panic is fabricated rather than justified. In fact, any hot weather event you can pick out in recent years is likely overshadowed by a much worse event decades or centuries before “man-made carbon pollution” was ever a thing.

For example, the media is frantic over the current drought and “record temps” in Europe this summer, warning that it could become the “worst drought” in 500 years. Of course, this claim opens the door to a question that climate scientists and propagandists don't want to answer: What happened 500 years ago?

A similar level of global warming hysteria was present during a heat wave in Europe in 2003, as well as in 2018. The few climate scientists still not bought and paid for by governments and the UN have had to point out that these droughts are nothing compared to the living hell that was the drought of 1540. This event is often termed a “mega-drought” because the region suffered historically hot temps while receiving almost no rain for a year.

Temperatures that year averaged 5°C to 7° C above average temperatures in Europe in the 20th century. In US terms, that means daily summer temps of around 104° F. Hundreds of historic accounts written at the time describe around half a million deaths, along with vast wildfires and a winter in Italy that “felt like July.” Keep in mind that carbon levels in Europe in 1540 were 30% LOWER than they are today, yet, the region suffered perhaps the worst warming event in its recorded history.

Today's climate data is based on records held by the NOAA and other institutions, and these records only go back to 1880. So, whenever you hear the mainstream media rant about record temperatures, they are using a tiny sliver of global weather history going back a little over a century. Any honest scientist in this field will tell you that the Earth's climate record is vast compared to the limited data used by global warming ideologues, and the majority of destructive weather crises have occurred well before man-made carbon emissions.

It certainly wasn't carbon pollution from cars, farming and industry that caused the crisis in 1540.


Try doing any research on the 1540 event and you will be buried in a pile of mainstream articles that acknowledge the disaster but then try to use it as an example of why we must comply with carbon restrictions and climate authoritarianism in 2022. They say “Look at what happened to Europe in 1540.
You don't want that to happen again, do you?”

Of course, humanity had no say or control over the weather in 1540, just as we have no say or control over the weather today. There was no carbon based global warming back then, and there is no carbon based global warming now.
Scientists still have no idea what caused many of the warming events of the past including the crisis of 1540, so why should we have blind faith in their claims that carbon is the cause of warming in recent years? In fact, the NOAA and other climate research institutions still offer no concrete proof of a relationship between carbon emissions and rising temperatures. Their argument is that they have excluded all other possible causes, leaving only carbon as the remainder. This is not science, this is haphazard guesswork.
If there was ever a field that defies the logic, reason and analysis commonly associated with the scientific method, it is climate science.

Set aside the fact that billions of dollars in funding are paid out to climate scientists every year, but only those scientists that operate from the assumption that climate change is caused by human beings. That is to say, there are numerous incentives for scientists to discount other causes for global warming. They are not scientists, they are paid political activists.

Luckily, temperatures are not that high. The NOAA's own data shows that the average temperature of the Earth has risen less than 1°C in the past century. This is nothing, so why all the panic?

Let's just say that carbon controls are a powerful tool for micromanaging the population and justifying authoritarianism in the name of the “greater good.”

If the public is convinced to accept false climate change narratives, then government would have the ability to control every aspect of daily life, from the amount of electricity we use, to the food we eat, to the businesses we can run, to the level of production and the size of the population. This is not fiction this is reality, and it is happening much faster than many people realize, all in the name of saving the planet from a threat that doesn't exist.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

De-Dollarization In Progress Could "Vaporize" Stocks, Bonds And Real Estate​


WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 - 06:25 PM

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

A couple of days ago, I had the chance to interview my good friend Andy Schectman, President & Owner of Miles Franklin Precious Metals, a company that has done more than $5 billion in sales.

Andy is a world-renowned expert in the field of precious metals and took the time to answer some pressing questions I had about about the state of energy markets in the U.S. and the quickly shifting landscape that the global economy sits on, with the BRIC nations banding together and collectively laughing at the West since the sanctions on Russia went into effect several months ago.

In what can only be described as an extremely disturbing interview that left my jaw agape by the end of it, Andy and I have a frank discussion about:
  • The price of oil and the country’s response to higher prices
  • How the Fed is trapped between a rock and a hard place, between inflation and recession right now
  • The BRIC nations banding together economically and challenging the U.S. dollar as global reserve currency
  • Andy’s thoughts on how nearly all traditional assets - including stocks, bonds a real estate and the dollar, may wind up “vaporized”
“Inflation is everywhere and gas is just one of the places,” Andy says. “Inflation is rampant. They’ve been pointing to the prices of certain things, but inflation is always a monetary phenomenon. We have not seek peak inflation, but bringing down the price of gas $0.30 or $0.40 is encouraging, but I don’t think it’s anything substantive at all.”

When I asked about how the Biden administration was dealing with the issue, Andy said: “I think the strategic oil supply is supposed to be strategic, yet why were they selling so much oil from it to China and Pakistan?”

He continued about inflation: “I don’t think the 9.1% is the peak - not even close to it. I think the 9.1% is bullshit as well.”

Speaking about what course of action the Fed is going to wind up taking, Andy makes its clear he’s in the camp that the Central Bank is definitely going to pivot.

“I don’t think that the Fed has any intention of doing what they say, I do believe it’s a sideshow,” Andy says. “Raising [rates] to 2.25% and not doing anything in terms of QT - I think they’re showing us that they’re jawboning, they don’t want to go down in history as blowing up the whole system.”

“They just can’t do it. The minute they start to raise rates high enough, they will blow up the system. The Fed is impotent. They are damned if they do, damned if they don’t,” he continued.

Andy criticized the Fed’s inability to see what they were doing, as they were doing it, stating: “When you take a step back and realize that there has to be someone with enough sense to realize that when you blow asset prices up to all time highs factored against the lowest interest rates in human history, at some point that bar tab has to be paid.”

He summed up: “We’ve milked as much from the system as humanly possible.”

Andy also thinks that global de-dollarization is on its way: “I do think the whole system could blow up with the loss of the dollar’s petro-reserve status.”

“There are certain signposts along the way, that when you see, it becomes clear we are on a path to de-dollarization,” he says. “The dollar hegemony is right about ready to break when you realize that Saudi Arabia is about to join the BRIC nations. Do you think Biden is going to fly there to ask for more oil? He went there to beg them not to join BRIC.”

“The dollar was made reserve currency only because of our protection of the Saudi kingdom,” Andy continues. He then notes that Saudi Arabia has signed new protection agreements with Russia.

“All of the Eastern European countries that have repatriated their gold. They’re all part of the EU but they all trade their own currency. They’re all going to break away from the Western system!”

Finally, you can listen to my full interview here:

View: https://youtu.be/hDwdximds_0
1:22:38 min
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
From CHigh Telegram page (Tacks with the info from PIT 2 and Gregg Phillips/Patriot Games interview)

[Forwarded from Brian Cates (Brian Cates)]

1.8 million Americans who volunteered to participate in local elections in their counties all had their personal info stored on a server in China, data which under Chinese Law belongs to the CCP.

I'm not talking just about their names, pictures, addresses, names of their kids, etc.

I mean down to the schematics and detailed maps of the buildings they worked in and more.

The CCP has an incredible amount of information stored about these election workers and their families that it has been using for more than a few years now in order to learn everything there is to know about how local elections are being run inside the United States.

Given that - despite over 40 years of deliberate propaganda to the contrary - the CCP is a hostile foreign regime, the things they could do with this amount of breathtaking detail is, to be polite, problematic.

Many years ago the CCP realized it could never defeat the United States in a direct military conflict involving land/air/sea conventional forces. And so the regime in Beijing pursued an unconventional specialized warfare against the US that involved a massive level of infiltration and appropriation.

And paving the way for this infiltration and appropriation of key US national defense infrastructure was a political class all too eager to sell out their country in exchange for wealth and favors from China.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=as4oGZIETeI
17:59 min

BEWARE! This is Getting Ugly - Robert Kiyosaki Warning​


Inspire Discipline
Robert Kiyosaki and Raoul Pal warn of an ugly pending market crash and economic collapse in 2022. And how things will eventually turn out based on trends from the past. The Video will educate you on the history of economic up and downturns and how those same trends could help you better understand the current economic collapse. This will help you better understand today’s macroeconomic environment and trends.

Robert T. Kiyosaki is an American businessman, investor, and best-selling author. One of his most popular books is “Rich Dad Poor Dad” and it’s a great educational tool on the way to financial freedom. Kiyosaki is well known for revealing the truth about money and finances that they don’t teach in any school.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
SciFi World, [8/17/2022 9:23 AM] Clif H
[Forwarded from TheStormHasArrived17 (TheStormHasArrived17 ️ ️ ️)]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdWpBJJ-Sbc
2:44 min

General Flynn discusses CCP infiltration in the US government & within the ‘think tanks’ in DC:

“Wuhan is also an interesting place for some of these think tanks. The infiltration by the CCP into the USA, into our education system, into our businesses, into our military, into our diplomatic corps… the fabric of Washington, DC…

We have many that are in the US govt that should not be in those positions bc of their direct ties to the CCP and China.”

Notable information, especially after The Pit.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
More Follow up to PIT2 and the Gregg Phillips interview.


U.S. Election Software Company Previously Built Confucius Institute 'Communication Platform'​

Konnech Inc., creator of the 'PollChief' software used by 'thousands of Election Offices across North America' built ChineseBrief.com for the Confucius Institute.​


KanekoaTheGreat
Aug 15

Konnech Inc., an American election technology company founded in 2002 based in Okemos outside of East Lansing, Michigan, previously built ChineseBrief.com, a ‘unique interactive communication platform and Chinese language learning tool’ for the Confucius Institute, according to the company’s Facebook page and an archived Michigan State University’s Confucius Institute webpage.

According to Konnech’s website, the company’s ‘PollChief’ software products, which include the ‘Election Worker Management System’, ‘Asset Management System’, and the ‘MyBallot Tracking System’ are used by “thousands of Election Offices across North America”.

Konnech’s software helps manage the poll workers, polling locations, campaigns, assets, mail-in ballots, and supplies necessary to run elections in the United States, Canada, and Australia.

In December 2006, the company posted on their Facebook page, “… Confucius Institute at Michigan State University has reached an agreement with Konnech, Inc. to build ChineseBrief.com—a unique interactive communication platform and Chinese language learning tool.”




Source: Konnech’s Facebook (archive.ph)


In February 2007, an archived webpage of the Michigan State University’s Confucius Institute announced, “The Confucius Institute recently signed an agreement with the Okemos, MI based company Konnech to offer daily 3-5 minute Mandarin lessons delivered to your phone. The phonecasts are sent based on a schedule setup by the user with an on-line interface. The service will be initially free for a limited time. Registration for the service will be available soon.”




Source: Michigan State University’s Confucius Institute


A May 19, 2020, article published at InQueensland explained that the Queensland Department of Housing and Public Works conceded it had been a “difficult few years” after the “failure of the election reporting system” — starting with the former commissioner’s “decision to acquire the Konnech system”.

The Queensland digital news company stated, “count reporting problems on election night” were partly the result of “a new computer system not being tested as planned because “coding resources” were locked down in Wuhan”.

Queensland Chief Digital Officer Chris Fechner said: “The delivery of the project was further impacted in the final development and bug fixing stages during January and February 2020, as most of the coding resources were based in Wuhan China and were negatively impacted by the COVID-19 lock-down”.

On July 15, 2020 according to records of the proceedings in Queensland Parliament, MP Fiona Simpson asked the Queensland Premier why, “foreign owned company Konnech was given an important contract to produce the software to administer Queensland’s elections using China based coders over every Queensland coding firm?”

At least three other Members of Parliament — Mr. Lister, Mr. Crandon, and Dr. Robinson — asked similar questions about Konnech, according to Queensland Parliament records.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

‘Any Excuse to Grab More Power’: EU Wants a Centralised ‘Civil Protection Force’ to Fight Climate Change​

PETER CADDLE17 Aug 2022583

A senior Eurocrat has called for a “Civil Protection Force” directly under the control of Brussels to be established to fight the impact of climate change.

EU crisis management tsar has called for the creation of a “Civil Protection Force” directly under Brussels control for the ostensive purpose of fighting the impact of climate change.

The suggestion has prompted one MEP to accuse Brussels of “using any excuse to grab more power”, with the union’s green agenda policy having already resulted in chaotic scenes in the likes of the Netherlands.

According to a report by POLITICO, crisis management chief Janez Lenarcic has claimed that the impact climate change is having on EU member states is increasing, something which he believes now mandates intervention from Brussels.

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“…we have a growing sense that more Europe is needed in civil protection,” Lenarcic said while suggesting that EU treaties should be changed so as to hand Brussels the power to establish such a force that would be able to provide this “protection”.

Such a sentiment however has been outright rejected by critics however, with one elected representative within the European Parliament, Cristian Terhes MEP, warning Breitbart Europe that the EU’s “unelected bureaucrats are using any excuse to grab more power”.

“These European bureaucrats are not the solution, but the cause of many problems that the EU is facing, and the deeply damaging energy crisis is just a proof of that,” Terhes said, emphasising that EU bigwigs “don’t want to be accountable to the people”.

“Handing to these irresponsible and unaccountable bureaucrats even more power would just simply be irresponsible,” the European Conservatives and Reformists Group politician continued.

“What Europe needs is a rebirth of national and sovereign democracy, with creativity and power for local people rather than one size fits all bureaucratic control from the centre of Brussels,” he went on to say.

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Apart from calling for even more powers to be handed to Brussels in order to allow it to build its “Civil Protection Force”, Lenarcic was also keen to emphasise that more needed to be done to slash emissions in order to “prevent further deterioration of the climate”.

However, while those in Brussels might see no issue in asking — or demanding — EU nation-states reduce emissions, those within the affected EU states certainly have, with farmers in the Netherlands, in particular, being put to the sword for the purpose of fulfilling the EU green agenda.

In response to hardline nitrogen emission targets put in place by the EU, the Dutch government has begun implementing measures that could see up to 30 per cent of livestock farms in the country forced to close, with the government even planning mandatory state buy-outs for some farms that are currently operating in the country.

While pro-EU authorities in the Netherlands have dismissed future mass closures as merely being part and parcel of an “unavoidable transition” in the march toward Great Reset goals set by Brussels, farmers in the country have rejected the move, and are now actively protesting the measures by blocking roads and demonstrating in cities and at events.

This has prompted a hardline response from state authorities, with police in the country having repeatedly come under fire for their violent actions towards those protesting the alleged reforms.

Overall, over 100 people have been arrested by law enforcement in the country in relation to the anti-green agenda protests, with hundreds more being fined for resisting the EU agenda in ways deemed illegal by those in power.

 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Audio on website 35:45 min

While the Trudeau government says new plans to reduce emissions from agricultural fertilizer usage are a harmless way to combat climate change, many farmers across the country say otherwise. It could in fact mean a reduction in food production, the closure of farms and more increases in food prices. Gerry Ritz was Canada’s agriculture minister during the Stephen Harper Conservative government and before that was a farmer in Saskatchewan for 20 years. Ritz breaks down the role fertilizers actually play in farming and why farmers are so opposed to seeing any government-imposed reductions. (Recorded August 11, 2022.)

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mdWxsLWNvbW1lbnQubGlic3luLmNvbS9yc3M
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Another Bill Gates-funded Picnic supermarket set ablaze

KEEAN BEXTE​

August 16, 2022

According to De Telegraaf, one employee immediately noticed that the Rotterdam building was full of smoke when they arrived at work. Upon further investigation, they found that three of Picnic’s prized electric delivery cars were on fire. The sprinkler system quickly extinguished the fire, with firefighters arriving soon after.

No one was injured in the incident, and the area has been sectioned off while investigations are underway.



1660796448686.png

As previously reported by The Counter Signal, the second of the Gates-funded facilities to be set ablaze happened in late July, when a Picnic building in Almelo was filmed burning in a massive fire that ultimately consumed the entire building.

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1546284131729829888
1:10 min

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1546498921551257601
1:14 min

In December 2021, the first of the fires broke out in a Roosendaal Picnic facility. While the building survived, operations in West Brabant were brought to a standstill.

In all three incidents, no arrests have been made.

While only speculative, many believe the fires are part of the larger Dutch farmers’ protests sweeping the country.

Last year, Picnic was given a whopping 600 million euros from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and many participating in the ongoing farmers’ protests in Holland have openly stated they believe Gates may be partly responsible for pushing additional climate laws.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
(Facebook)

(Netherlands)
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(USA) The impact of nitrogen fertilizer on field crops
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(New Zealand protests the 21st and 22 all over)
1660804730360.png
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Gas-To-Oil Switch May Not Be A Huge Catalyst For EU Crude Demand

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 - 11:00 PM
By Alex Kimani of OilPrice.com

Last week, oil prices finished the week in the green, gaining 3.5% after tumbling nearly 10% a week earlier thanks to a weakening dollar after better-than-expected inflation data altered interest rate expectations from the Fed. Unfortunately, the oil price rally has been snuffed out in a dramatic fashion.

WTI and Brent crude have both declined more than 5% in Monday’s morning session to trade at $87.31/bbl and 93.16/bbl on demand fears as disappointing Chinese economic data renewed global recession concerns. China's central bank cut key lending rates in a bid to revive demand as the latest data showed the economy unexpectedly slowing in July–and the market wasn’t expecting it.

China’s industrial output grew 3.8% in July from a year earlier, well below the 4.6% consensus on Wall Street. The grim set of figures is an indication that the world’s largest importer of crude is struggling to shake off the effects of Beijing’s Covid restrictions months earlier.

Coupled with high oil price volatility, this is taking a heavy toll on oil prices, with Brent crude open interest this month down 20% compared to a year ago levels.

"Open interest is still falling, with some (market players) not interested in touching it because of volatility. That is, in my view, the reason resulting in higher volumes to the downside," UBS oil analyst Giovanni Staunovo has said, adding that the trigger for Monday’s drop was weak Chinese data.

But a slowing Chinese economy might be just one of a host of bearish catalysts that might conspire to keep oil prices grounded if Europe’s natural gas stockpiles are any indication.

Gas to Oil Switching

Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, dozens of Eurozone countries pledged to heavily cut Russian natural gas imports or halt them completely as soon as they can afford to. These countries took several aggressive measures to replenish their natural gas stockpiles ahead of the winter season, including reaching a political agreement to cut gas use by 15% through next winter.

And now there's a growing sense that Europe might not only meet its gas targets but also exceed them. European governments had been worried that Russia's cut in supplies through its main gas pipeline to Germany would leave many of them with less than sufficient supplies for the winter season. However, many European nations have managed to build up ample gas storage by switching from gas to coal for some power plants, steadily curbing gas demand, and increasing imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

According to a report by the Observer Research Foundation, energy supply disruptions triggered by Russia’s war on Ukraine took LNG prices even higher leaving coal as the only option for dispatchable and affordable power in much of Europe, including the tough markets of Western Europe and North America that have explicit policies to phase out coal.

Coal mines and power plants that closed shop 10 years ago have begun to be repaired in Germany. Now, Germany looks set to burn at least 100,000 tons of coal per month by winter. That’s a big U-turn considering that Germany's goal had been to phase out all coal-generated electricity by 2038.

Nor is Germany alone: Austria, Poland, the Netherlands and Greece are also gearing up for coal plant restarts, while China’s coal imports have been surging, increasing 24% month-to-month in July as power generators increased purchases to provide for peak summer electricity demand. China has the largest number of operational coal power plants with 3,037 while Germany, the largest economy in the EU has 63.

As a result, thermal coal, which is the variety used to generate power, has seen a 170% rise in price since the end of 2021--most of those gains made following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Ramped-up LNG imports have also helped, with the EU importing 21.36 million tonnes of LNG in the first half of 2022, up from just 8.21 million tonnes during last year’s comparable period. In a historical precedent, Europe is now taking in more American LNG than piped Russian gas.

The result: injections to Europe’s gas storage are running about nine weeks ahead of last year, an impressive feat even after flows from Russia have been severely curtailed. European gas storage levels are above 70%, and have even surpassed the 5-year average, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE).

By November 1st, the EU will likely hit 80% natural gas storage capacity–just in time for peak winter demand. Germany is even aiming for 95% capacity, and is already at 75%.

This is set to curb oil demand since some operators have begun switching from gas to oil generation due to high natural gas prices. "The EU already surpassed its September 1 interim filling target in early July and is still on pace to reach the November 1 target," Jacob Mandel, senior associate for commodities at Aurora Energy Research, has told Reuters.

Indeed, analysts at Standard Chartered Plc are saying that President Vladimir Putin’s gas weapon will be effectively blunted by the inventory build, with Europe set to go through winter “comfortably” without Russian gas.

More than enough natural gas available will, unfortunately, lower oil demand as an alternative. That said, Europe will have to pay a heavy price: the cost of replenishing natural gas stocks is estimated at over 50 billion euros ($51 billion), 10 times more than the historical average for filling up tanks ahead of winter.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Feds Cut Water Deliveries To Arizona And Nevada, May Impact Food Production​

WEDNESDAY, AUG 17, 2022 - 07:40 PM

Arizona and Nevada face deeper cuts on the amount of water they can draw from the drought-stricken Colorado River, the Interior Department's Bureau of Reclamation said Tuesday.

The agency responsible for managing water and power in the western US said "urgent action" is needed as water levels in the Colorado River's two largest reservoirs -- Lake Mead and Lake Powell -- continue to drop. Under the new conservation efforts, 21% of Arizona's annual water allocation from the river system will be reduced in 2023.

Nevada will see 8% of water deliveries reduced, and Mexico's share will be cut by 7%. California will be spared from the new measures that begin next year.

The reductions could be the beginning of a water crisis for the 40 million Americans in seven states (Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, Arizona, California, and Nevada) that heavily rely on the river for freshwater and power.



The move comes as the western US faces the worst megadrought in 1,200 years that has decreased levels in Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the US, to lows not seen in eight decades.

Lake Powell, meanwhile, could face hydropower production disruptions as soon as next year, The Guardian said.

"Every sector in every state has a responsibility to ensure that water is used with maximum efficiency. To avoid a catastrophic collapse of the Colorado river system and a future of uncertainty and conflict, water use in the basin must be reduced," said Tanya Trujillo, assistant secretary of the Interior Department for water and science.

In Arizona, the cuts will impact water flow to farmland responsible for 90% of US lettuce production.

Farmers in Arizona, who provide more than 90% of the US's leafy greens each November through March, have already borne the brunt of prior cuts, along with those who make a living from the state's $23.3 billion agriculture industry. Pinal County, between Phoenix and Tucson, is likely to be hit especially hard since the area known for cotton and livestock has already seen about half its farmland go idle due to prior water reductions. - Bloomberg

Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Camille Calimlim Touton summed up the situation along the Colorado River:

"The system is approaching a tipping point and without action, we can't protect the system and the millions of Americans who rely on this critical resource."

Readers may recall that we noted taps in northern Mexico have run dry for several months as a water crisis looms.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Data Shows Number Of Low-Income Audits Could Triple As IRS Grows

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 - 02:00 PM

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Internal Revenue Service Headquarters Building in Washington on Sept. 19, 2018. (Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times)

The IRS audited 197 low-income families for every high-wealth family in 2019, according to the Government Accountability Office (GAO)—a number that some experts expected to climb under an IRS turbocharged with more money and manpower.

Over the next decade, the Democrat’s new “Inflation Reduction Act” will provide the IRS with 87,000 new agents and $80 billion in funding, with nearly $46 billion earmarked for enforcement.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the tax and spend bill is projected to bring in $203.7 billion in revenue from 2022 to 2031.

President Joe Biden’s administration has promised no new taxes or audits on households making less than $400,000 per year.

But experts say that promise may be hard to keep.

A previous CBO analysis using a similar funding plan featured in the Inflation Reduction Act found audit rates would be restored to levels around 10 years ago. The analysis showed the audit rates would rise for all taxpayers, but the ones with higher incomes would face the biggest increase.

The oldest data available in the 2022 Government Accountability Office report released this year was for 2010. That’s when the IRS was better funded and staffed with some 95,000 full time employees.

From 2010-2019, the IRS audited 0.9 percent across all income groups compared to 0.25 percent now.

Rachel Greszler, a budget and entitlements senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, told The Epoch Times that even returning to the 2010 audit levels for those making more than $400,000 per year, would still fall short of the IRS’s revenue goal.

“My rough estimate shows that returning to the 2010 audit levels for all income groups would only generate a little over 20 percent of the bills’ estimated enforcement revenues in 2031,” she said.

In her commentary on the Heritage Foundation’s website Aug. 12, Greszler wrote the numbers don’t add up using 2019 data either without the lower- and middle-class.

Even increasing recent audit rates 30-fold for taxpayers making over $400,000—including 100 percent audit rates on taxpayers with incomes over $10 million—still would fall more than 20 percent short of raising the estimated $35.3 billion in new revenues by 2031, she wrote.

So it stands to reason that taxpayers can expect audit rates more like those about a decade ago.

GAO statistics show a larger number of audits in 2010 for taxpayers in the $0-$24,999 tax bracket than the high wealth households. About 579,000 audits were performed on the lowest tax bracket in 2010, compared to 197,000 in 2019.

Yet for the wealthy, high wealth audits of $10 million or more stood at 2,800 in 2010, dipping to 1,000 in 2019.

While a higher percentage of high wealthy households is audited more than poor ones, the lower class sees more audits overall.

A better-funded IRS in 2010 audited the poor much more aggressively than the super wealthy—at a rate of 207 to 1.

In recent years, the IRS audited taxpayers with incomes below $25,000 and those with incomes of $500,000 or more at higher-than-average rates. But, audit rates have dropped for all income levels—with audit rates falling the most for taxpayers with incomes of $200,000 or more, according to the GAO report.

The Inflation Reduction Act, which is a scaled-down version of Build Back Better negotiated by Democrats Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), took Republicans by surprise. The measure passed the Democratic-controlled Senate and Congress last week through a reconciliation process.

Alarm bells sounded for Republicans after Democrats shot down an amendment to the bill proposed by Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) to protect the working class from more audits. Crapo’s amendment stipulated that none of the funds from the Inflation Reduction Act could be used to audit taxpayers making under $400,000 a year. Still, all 50 Democrats in the Senate voted against it.

Republicans on the House Ways and Means Committee said CBO calculated the monetary impact of Crapo’s amendment. Calculations confirmed that had lower- and middle-income taxpayers been protected by the amendment, revenue in the Democrats’ bill would have been reduced by at least $20 billion.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen attempted to clear up “misinformation” about the bill in a letter to IRS Commissioner Charles P. Rettig. She wrote new resources allocated to the IRS “shall not be used to increase the share of small business or households below the $400,000 threshold that are audited relative to historical levels.”

However, her directive isn’t included in the bill, meaning it won’t have the power of law. Tax experts and analysis from the nonpartisan scorekeeper at the CBO indicate Yellen’s promise will likely be broken if the IRS sticks to its income expectations.

“Again, this has no teeth behind it,” said Preston Brashers, a senior tax policy analyst with the Heritage Foundation.

Brashers said it would take time for the audits to start rolling, increasing as the tax agency adds tens of thousands of new agents. Proponents of the bill say a large number of those 87,000 employees will fill jobs lost through attrition, but Brashers said it appears that the agency will almost double in size.

In a press release, Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas) estimated that the Democrats’ bill would amount to 1.2 million new audits of taxpayers per year. Over 710,000 of these audits would fall on Americans who earn $75,000 a year or less.

“If you’re an American worker making $75,000 a year, you are 4x more likely to see a tax hike from this bill than any tax relief at all. You’re hitting middle class families directly and through higher energy prices as well,” Brady wrote on the Ways and Means GOP Twitter feed.

Audits of Least Resistance
Another taxpayer category likely to be audited more is rural, low-income households claiming an Earned Income Tax Credit, according to the IRS.

Those who claim the EITC credits often make mistakes or don’t understand the rules, which makes auditing these returns low-hanging fruit for the IRS because they don’t require many man hours. The opposite is true of audits of wealthy families who can afford accountants and lawyers.

A much larger number of returns claiming EITC credits are audited compared to the wealthiest households. In 2019, the number of audits of low-income families claiming the EITC credit compared to high wealth audits of $10 million or more was 205 to 1.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Brace For Even Higher Beef Prices As Texas Cattle Industry Faces Historic Drought Crisis​

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 - 01:30 PM

Ranchers across Texas continue to panic sell cattle herds as the worst megadrought in 1,200 years makes it too expensive to sustain operations.

"We'll keep selling cows till it rains," Texas High Plains rancher Jim Ferguson told Amarillo station KAMR, which collaborated with The Hill on the expanding cattle crisis in the state.

America's cattle heartland has seen pastures turn to dust, and costs for feed, fertilizer, and diesel skyrocket, threatening an entire industry that is essential to the nation's beef supply.

The Hill said that the devastating drought and higher cattle operation costs would result in higher beef prices for at least the next two years. And we agree with that assessment as the latest data via USDA shows supermarket prices surged to record highs earlier this year and are quickly approaching the $5 handle.



"The lack of water in general, it's hurting us all the way around. Any way you can think of," cattle buyer Josh Sturgeon said.

Sturgeon said ranchers are liquidating herds at auction because of the lack of water and soaring costs.

But "you're almost afraid to buy. Cattle drink a lot of water, especially this time of year. With this drought, they're drinking a lot of water. Cattle are dying because of this. Even the best of cattle are struggling," he noted.

Walter Kunisch of consultant group Hilltop Securities said increased cattle liquidations at auctions due to worsening drought is "nothing like we've seen in the last 15 years."

Kunisch pointed out that farmers are selling off their breeding stock, which they rely on to produce the next generation of cows.

"That's a big signal to me that, you know, that future supplies at some point are going to run tight," Kunsich warned.

USDA's latest cattle report found herds are down 2.4% nationwide since last year -- a decrease of 750,000 cows -- and a decline of 2 million since the national herd peaked in 2018.

The biggest takeaway is cattle herds moving forward are expected to shrink, meaning tight supplies and higher prices.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Buchanan: How, When, Or Will We Ever Come Together Again?

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 - 04:00 PM
Authored by Pat Buchanan,

When 30 FBI agents showed up at Mar-a-Lago to cart off boxes of documents, it was an authorized, legitimate and justified procedure to retrieve national security secrets being illegally kept there.

Or it was an unprecedented regime raid on the home and office of the foremost political rival of President Joe Biden that called to mind a “Third World country,” the East German “Stasi,” the KGB or the Gestapo.

And Jan. 6, 2021?

That was a riot, a disgraceful breach of the Capitol, involving assaults on Capitol cops that deserved to be and are being punished.

No, it was more than that. Far more. It was an “insurrection,” a “fascist coup,” an act of treason led by far-right extremists to abort the transfer of power from the winner of the election of 2020 to the loser. It ranks right up there with the 1814 burning of the Capitol by the British.

Such is the magnitude of the divide in America, a divide that extends far beyond our clashing views of Jan. 6 and the Mar-a-Lago raid.

Consider abortion. Before the 1960s, abortion was almost universally regarded as a shameful and criminal act. Doctors who performed abortions were disgraced and sometimes sent to prison.

But after the Dobbs decision by the Supreme Court declared that Roe v. Wade in 1973 was wrongly decided, restoration of women’s right to an abortion is being championed by half the nation.

The other half of America yet believes abortion involves the killing of an unborn innocent child.

Part of America celebrates the Supreme Court’s decision to declare marriage equality for homosexuals. Yet, a traditionalist minority believes such a mandate imposes on the nation a secularist morality contradicted by the tenets of the Christian faith that was the basis of laws for our first two centuries as a nation.

Nor is it only clashing morality that divides us.

For a nation, a country, a people, a democracy to endure, there needs be a broad consensus of belief, culture, custom and politics.

On the issue of law and order, without which a republic cannot stand, there is now disagreement over the role and conduct of our police.

During the George Floyd summer of 2020, “Defund the Police!” was the clamor of the left, and among the street chants of Black Lives Matter was, “Pigs in a Blanket, Fry ‘Em Like Bacon.”

Only a stunning political recoil caused its abandonment.

For a nation, especially a great world power like the United States, some things are indispensable to its preservation.

A democratic republic needs to preserve the value of its currency, to defend its borders against illegal mass migrations and invasions, to preserve law and order, especially in its great cities.

Which of these requisites exist today when the nation suffers 8% inflation; 250,000 illegal aliens cross our southern border every month; and “mass shootings” occur daily in our cities during which at least four victims are gunned down, wounded or killed?

The preservation of a democracy also requires the confidence of its people in its defining institutions.

Yet, since the Reagan era, Americans’ collective confidence in our major institutions has fallen from one-half of the nation to one-fourth.

In 2022, confidence in the Supreme Court fell by a third to 25%. Only a fourth of the country retained high confidence in the presidency; and confidence in Congress plummeted to 7%, or one in every 14 Americans.

One in 6 Americans had great confidence in our newspapers, with only 1 in 9 citizens saying the same about television news.

In summary, we are a country whose people have a diminishing confidence in almost all of its institutions, from big business to the churches, universities and media. Only small business and the U.S. military enjoy the confidence of the American people.

Public approval of Biden’s performance is at the lowest level ever recorded for a president at this point in his first term.

True, we have been through and recovered from divisive times.

In the 1860s, 11 of the 33 states seceded and fought for four years to gain their independence of the Union.

The 1960s were divisive, but the left, with Sen. George McGovern its political expression, captured less than 40% of the vote against Richard Nixon in 1972. Ronald Reagan ran up two landslides in the 1980s.

Those days are long gone.

The left today dominates the academic community and culture to a greater degree than it once did and is further removed from the heart of the country in Middle America than it has ever been.

When, how, does America ever unite again?

And what unites us, other than an external attack on the country, like Pearl Harbor or 9/11?

Where is the common ground on which to stand?

Does such ground even exist, given the divisions in religion, race and ethnicity, and the seemingly irreconcilable disagreements over morality, ideology, culture and politics?

Has the great experiment run its course?
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

NatGas Prices At 14-Year High As Traders Warn Of Winter Tightness

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 - 10:20 AM

The explanation for US natural gas prices at 14-yeah highs, in our view, are concerns that increasing domestic and European demand for the fuel will result in tighter US supplies ahead of the winter season. A lot of NatGas has been pumped to power plants this summer as cooling demand surged, sending stockpiles for the coldest months of the year below 10% of normal levels.

Traders and research desks also focus on reopening Freeport LNG Terminal in Quintana, Texas, in October, which would boost US Gulf exports to Europe and result in even tighter US supplies.

On Thursday morning, New York NatGas futures are up more than 2% to $9.30/mmbtu after the EIA reported a smaller-than-expected injection to domestic winter reserves. Prices are steadily approaching $10/mmbtu and are currently at the highest price since 2008.

"Natural gas supply & demand dynamics have continued to pull the market higher," Houston-based energy firm Criterion Research wrote in a note.

"Natural gas production has had a few individual days with impressive prints near record-highs, but it has been unable to sustain those numbers amid a myriad of pipeline maintenance events and outages across the country.

Concurrently, low renewables (ie wind) have contributed to very strong natural gas burns within the United States. Weak coal storage inventories and an overall lack of coal power are compounding with the lackluster wind as well, leading to impressive gas burns throughout the last few months.

"Looking ahead, Freeport LNG is expected to roar back online in October, adding another 2 Bcf/d to the mix and keeping balances tight for the winter season," the energy firm said.

BloombergNEF data shows domestic NatGas output has fallen 1 billion cubic feet a day since the peak at 98.7 billion cubic feet in the week ended Aug. 6. The declines are problematic because this is the time domestic winter reserves are injected with NatGas to prepare for the US heating season just ten weeks away.

Gary Cunningham, a director at Tradition Energy, told Bloomberg that faltering production at wells is bidding up prices:

"You're just sort of feeding gasoline into the fire, which drives the bulls," Cunningham said.

Tight supplies in the US come as Europe wrestles with a historic energy crisis due to backfiring Western sanctions on Russia.

So the question now is if the move over $9/mmbtu is sustainable, and if so, a break over the $10 handle could suggest another leg higher, as explained by analysts at EBW AnalyticsGroup.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Tulsi Gabbard: Washington Elite Pose "Greatest Threat" To Democracy

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 - 08:20 AM

Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) says that the greatest threat to democracy isn't Trump voters, or parents protesting at school board meetings - "but the permanent Washington elite which has weaponized the govt and teamed up with corporate media to intimidate and silence those who dare to disagree with them."

"When you look at permanent Washington, you look at all the different hands that are involved," Gabbard said during a Wednesday appearance on Fox News. "And as we're seeing this whole situation play out over the last couple of weeks, we see very prominently placed is the national security state and the mainstream media. And you've outlined some of these changing narratives and new information when they see the old piece of information wasn't quite having the impact that they wanted."

"It's hard not to be skeptical when you look at their tactics and their timing to really question what their motives are. To leverage their power and their influence. To have an impact on these midterm elections that voters will be going to vote at in just a few weeks. And to do what they have already stated publicly is their objective, which is to prevent Donald Trump from running for president in 2024. This is not something new," she continued.

Watch:

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1560220066678837248
1:54 min
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

"We're Witnessing A Housing Recession": Existing Home Sales Crater 20% In July As Affordability Collapses​

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 - 07:20 AM

Another month, another plunge in housing.

Hot on the heels of the latest catastrophic homebuilder sentiment print and plunging single-family starts and permits, analysts expected existing home sales to accelerate their recent decline with a 4.9% MoM drop in July. They were right in direction but severely wrong in magnitude as existing home sales tumbled tumbled 5.9% MoM in June.



That is the 6h straight month of existing home sales declines - the longest stretch since 2013 - pulling home sales down a stunning 20.2% YoY. From the NAR

"The ongoing sales decline reflects the impact of the mortgage rate peak of 6% in early June," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
"Home sales may soon stabilize since mortgage rates have fallen to near 5%, thereby giving an additional boost of purchasing power to home buyers."

The collapsing housing market means the SAAR is now below the full year pace of 2012 - one decade ago.



Interestingly, despite the broad collapse in the market, properties typically remained on the market for 14 days in July, the same as June and down from 16 days in May and 17 days in July 2021. The 14 days on market are the fewest since NAR began tracking it in May 2011. Eighty-two percent of homes sold in July 2022 were on the market for less than a month.

In other words, the market is frozen, but inventory remains at record lows!

"We're witnessing a housing recession in terms of declining home sales and home building," Yun said. "However, it's not a recession in home prices. Inventory remains tight and prices continue to rise nationally with nearly 40% of homes still commanding the full list price."

Finally, there is some good news - the number of homes for sale rose for the first time in three years on an annual basis to 1.31 million, up from 1.26 in June and the highest since September. At the current sales pace it would take 3.3 months to sell all the homes on the market, marking the fifth straight rise in months’ supply.

Despite hopes that prices would start to roll over - helping with affordability - the median selling price rose 10.8% from a year earlier to a near-record $403,800. First-time buyers accounted for 29% of US sales last month, up from 30% in May.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

China's Power Crisis Worsens As More Factories Suspend Operations

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 - 06:40 AM
A heatwave-induced power crisis is spreading across southwestern China, shuttering factories and worsening by the day, according to Nikkei Asia.

The latest news from China is the Chongqing municipal government ordered factories, including Japanese-owned ones, to suspend production through Aug. 24 to conserve power as demand surges because of extreme heat.

Chongqing is following its neighbor, Sichuan Province, which announced earlier this week that slumping hydropower generation has led to the closure of some of the world's largest multinationals, including Toyota Motor Corp.
and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.

Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer Boris Kan pointed out the heatwave will only boost China's reliance on coal-fired generation.

1660866062362.png

In Chongqing, specifically in the Liangjiang area, power demand has surged because extreme heat led to a spike in air conditioner use. Chongqing has a high concentration of factories that make automobiles and computers, and their shutdowns to conserve power could impact global supply chains.

"Previously, the government had only required that factories cease production during consumption peaks, but the tight power supply-demand situation has become so severe that shutdowns were deemed necessary," Nikkie Asia said.

1660866025809.png

State-owned Chongqing Changan Automobile, U.S.-based Ford Motor, BYD Auto, and Taiwanese electronics manufacturers are some companies in Chongqing.

And while a power crisis festers in the country's southwestern part, Chinese President Xi Jinping addressed the critical situation on Thursday. He called on local authorities to resolve the severe drought in some provinces threatening electricity supplies, adding it could impact economic growth.

Despite the heatwave and factory shutdowns, President Xi also said China would open up its economy even as globalization has experienced a rise in protectionism in some parts of the world.

Good luck with the reopening, as July's economic data is very alarming, which forced the country's central bank to cut its key interest rates earlier this week unexpectedly. Compound a power crisis and factory closures to an already souring economic outlook (thanks to zero-Covid policies and a collapsing property sector), and China's downturn appears to be deepening.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

A Deeper Dive Into The CDC Reversal

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 - 06:49 AM

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

It was a good but bizarre day when the CDC finally reversed itself fundamentally on its messaging for two-and-a-half years.

The source is the MMWR report of August 11, 2022. The title alone shows just how deeply the about-face was buried: Summary of Guidance for Minimizing the Impact of COVID-19 on Individual Persons, Communities, and Health Care Systems — United States, August 2022.

The authors: “the CDC Emergency Response Team” consisting of “Greta M. Massetti, PhD; Brendan R. Jackson, MD; John T. Brooks, MD; Cria G. Perrine, PhD; Erica Reott, MPH; Aron J. Hall, DVM; Debra Lubar, PhD;; Ian T. Williams, PhD; Matthew D. Ritchey, DPT; Pragna Patel, MD; Leandris C. Liburd, PhD; Barbara E. Mahon, MD.”

It would have been fascinating to be a fly on the wall in the brainstorming sessions that led to this little treatise. The wording was chosen very carefully, not to say anything false outright, much less admit any errors of the past, but to imply that it was only possible to say these things now.

“As SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, continues to circulate globally, high levels of vaccine- and infection-induced immunity and the availability of effective treatments and prevention tools have substantially reduced the risk for medically significant COVID-19 illness (severe acute illness and post–COVID-19 conditions) and associated hospitalization and death.

These circumstances now allow public health efforts to minimize the individual and societal health impacts of COVID-19 by focusing on sustainable measures to further reduce medically significant illness as well as to minimize strain on the health care system, while reducing barriers to social, educational, and economic activity.“

In English:

everyone can pretty much go back to normal.

Focus on illness that is medically significant. Stop worrying about positive cases because nothing is going to stop them. Think about the bigger picture of overall social health. End the compulsion. Thank you. It’s only two and a half years late.

What about mass testing?

Forget it:

“All persons should seek testing for active infection when they are symptomatic or if they have a known or suspected exposure to someone with COVID-19.”

Oh.

What about the magic of track and trace?

“CDC now recommends case investigation and contact tracing only in health care settings and certain high-risk congregate settings.”

Oh.

What about the unvaccinated who were so demonized throughout the last year?

“CDC’s COVID-19 prevention recommendations no longer differentiate based on a person’s vaccination status because breakthrough infections occur, though they are generally mild, and persons who have had COVID-19 but are not vaccinated have some degree of protection against severe illness from their previous infection.”

Remember when 40% of the members of the black community in New York City who refused the jab were not allowed into restaurants, bars, libraries, museums, or theaters? Now, no one wants to talk about that.

Also, universities, colleges, the military, and so on – which still have mandates in place – do you hear this? Everything you have done to hate on people, dehumanize people, segregate people, humiliate others as unclean, fire people and destroy lives, now stands in disrepute.

Meanwhile, as of this writing, the blasted US government still will not allow unvaccinated travelers across its borders!

Not one word of the CDC’s turgid treatise was untrue back in the Spring of 2020. There was always “infection-induced immunity,” though Fauci and Co. constantly pretended otherwise. It was always a terrible idea to introduce “barriers to social, educational, and economic activity.” The vaccines never promised in their authorization to stop infection and spread, even though all official statements of the CDC claimed otherwise, repeatedly and often.

You might also wonder how the great reversal treats masking. On this subject, there is no backing off. After all, the Biden administration still has an appeal in process to reverse the court decision that the mask mandate was illegal all along.

“At the high COVID-19 Community Level,” the CDC adds, “additional recommendations focus on all persons wearing masks indoors in public and further increasing protection to populations at high risk.”

The problem from the beginning was that there never was an exit strategy from the crazy lockdown/mandate idea. It was never the case that they would magically cause the bug to go away. The excuse that we would lock down in wait for a vaccine never made any sense.

People surely knew early on of the social, economic, and cultural devastation that would ensue. If they did not, they never should have been anywhere near the control switches of public health. Badges and bureaucracies do not terrify a virus destined to spread to the whole planet. And not one person with even the most casual passing knowledge of coronaviruses could have sincerely believed that a vaccine would magically appear to achieve something never before achieved in the whole history of medicine.

When the Great Barrington Declaration appeared on October 4, 2020, it caused a global frenzy of fury not because it said anything new. It was merely a pithy restatement of basic public-health principles, which pretty much instantly became verboten on March 16, 2020, when Fauci/Birx announced their grand scheme.

The GBD generated mania because the existing praxis was based on preposterously unproven claims that demanded that billions of people buy into complete nonsense. Sadly many did simply because it seemed hard to believe that all world regimes but a handful would push such a damaging policy if it was utterly unworkable. When something like that happens – and there never was the hope that it could work – the regime imperative becomes censorship and shaming of dissent. It’s the only way to hold the great lie together.

So finally, nearly two years later the CDC has embraced the Great Barrington Declaration rather than doing a “quick and devastating takedown” as Francis Collins and Anthony Fauci called for the day after its release. No, they had to try out their new theory on the rest of us. It did not work, obviously. For the authors of the GBD, they knew from the time they penned the document that it was a matter of time before they were vindicated. They never doubted it.

Dr. Rajeev Venkayya is widely credited with coming up with the idea of lockdowns while he was working for the Bush administration back in 2005. He had no training at all in public health or epidemiology. He later marveled that it fell to him, a young desk-dwelling White House bureaucrat, to “invent pandemic planning.” Maybe he should have demurred that day that George W. Bush asked him to lead the charge to inaugurate a new war on pathogens.

Somehow his views gained converts, among whom was Bill Gates, the foundation for whom he worked for years. The rest is history.

In April 2020, Venkayya called me to explain why I needed to stop attacking lockdowns. He said that the planners need a chance to make their scheme work.

On the phone, I asked the same question over and over: where does the virus go? The first two times, he did not respond. I pressed and pressed. Finally he said there will be a vaccine.

It’s hard to appreciate just how preposterous that sounded at the time, and I said something along those lines: it would be a medical miracle never before seen to have a shot for a coronavirus that was sterilizing against wild type and all inevitable mutations, and to do it in a reasonable time so that society and economy had not completely fallen apart.

The whole approach was clearly milliennarian at best and utter madness at worst. And here I was, in the thick of global lockdowns, on the phone with the architect of the whole idea, an idea that had reduced billions to servitude, wrecked schools and churches, and sent communities and countries into complete upheaval. I wondered at the time what it would be like to be Dr. Venkayya that day. After all this ended in disaster, would he take responsibility? His LinkedIn profile today says otherwise: he is prepared to “tackle current and future epidemic & pandemic threats as the CEO of Aerium Therapeutics.”

There never was an exit strategy from lockdowns and mandates but they eventually did find an exit nonetheless. It came in the form of a heavily footnoted and opaquely written reversal, published by the main bureaucracy responsible for the disaster. It amounts to a repudiation without saying so. And thus does the great experiment in mass compulsion come to an intellectual end. If only the carnage could be cleaned up by another posting on the CDC’s website.

By the way, the Biden administration has extended the declaration of Covid emergency. And my unvaccinated friends in the UK still can’t board a plane to come for a visit.

All of this gives rise to the great question: what was the point? Maybe it was all a mistake and now it is gone forever but that’s unlikely. The intellectuals who pushed this project on the world have a view of the world that is fundamentally ill-liberal. They differ among themselves on the details but the general approach is technocratic central planning rooted in deep suspicion of basic tenets of freedom.

How many people on the planet have now been acculturated to top-down control, socialized to live in fear, accept whatever comes down from above, never to question an edict, and expect to live in a world of rolling man-made disasters? And was that the point after all, to cultivate low expectations for life on earth and relinquish the soul’s desire for a full and free life?
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Winter Is Coming For Europe As Stagflation And Energy Crises Are Set To Bite

THURSDAY, AUG 18, 2022 - 04:20 AM

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“The Long Hot Summer just passed me by….“

Winter is coming as soaring gas prices are set to bite across Europe. Putin’s energy insecurity strategy has proved his major success and could yet win him the Ukraine War. Stagflation is nailed on it Europe.

There is a definite hint of autumn this morning; a heavy dew, mist on the river, a chill in the air even though we know it will hit 30 degrees later, and a growing sense the year has turned. As temperatures drop, it’s time to think about winter power.

But first, a short aside to start the week: Wasps (Vespula Vulgaris)

Wasps fascinate and terrify me in equal measure. They are evil personified, yet perfectly designed and as important for our ecology as bees. They are critical pollinators, and provide excellent garden pest control. They are impossible to domesticate. Wasps and Humans interreact best by staying out each other’s way.

Through the Wasp-year the workers collect meat to feed to their larva which in return exude a sugary treat the adult yellowjackets crave. (Adult wasps are vegetarian.) In late summer Wasp Nests go into decline – the new queens mate and fly-off, the old worn-out queens die, no more eggs are laid, and the last generation of worker Wasps turn feral searching for sweet stuff, becoming a pest at picnics. Some years they become a real problem when they feast on rotting fermenting fruit – effectively getting drunk and thus more aggressive.

By the end of Autumn the nest will have died completely. It’s a somewhat dystopian life-cycle – but next year the new queens will emerge from their winter hiding holes and start again.

It’s been a great summer for Wasps – from their perspective. This year I notice they are still foraging for meat – we watched them strip some chicken to bone in moments last night – suggesting the nests remain healthy and thriving, which means more of them will survive into the late summer rotting fruit booze up and stinging season. The solution – baited traps with cider and jam.

What have wasps got to do with markets?

Like all things Wasps are a story of balance – when conditions are right… they thrive, causing consequences – more stings. In the South of England, the hottest summer on record means more wasps than usual. In the North of Scotland it’s been cold and wet, and none to be seen. Come the winter, Wasps are a problem largely forgotten.

What about markets? How much in balance are they? This winter is going to be an economic shocker.

As said before markets are a game of multiple inputs. The US is on a completely different recovery path to Europe – yet western economies remain closely linked.

The big question: stocks staged a bear market through H1 2022, but then the trend flipped. 4 weeks of unparalleled gains since Mid-July leaves the S&P 500 17% up. Is it the first leg of a new bull market, or a bear trap? The stock optimists say US inflation has peaked – the first sign being last week’s slowing in the pack of Consumer prices, that US jobs remain strongly bid and declining oil prices show the energy crisis is passing. (Bond markets – and in bonds there is truth – are still rising in yield term..)

Oil prices in the US may be declining.

Gas prices are not. Gas provides nearly a quarter of European Energy – over 40% of it comes from Russia. European gas prices are still rocketing higher, a massive crisis for economic activity where gas prices are an unbelievable 600% up on the year, with no sign they will ease. It’s the biggest economic threat to Europe since 1939. We’re all aware it’s the result of massive energy security miscalculations across the continent:

Germany assumed Russian Gas would always be cheap, available and plentiful.

The Netherlands and Italy assumed Gas would always flow through Germany and winter reserves could be built up during the quiet and cheap summer months.

The UK neglected energy storage and the development of domestic Gas as a transition fuel, and assumed Gas supplies would always be available on the open market – failing to foresee the possibility of massive disruption events.

France is struggling with Nuclear Power – half the French reactor “fleet” is currently idled.

Across Europe Nuclear has been painted as wrong and non-green, development of new nuclear power has generally stalled or become too expensive.

Already consumers are experiencing massive shocks in terms of their monthly power bills, but the brutal reality is the Long Hot Summer means we’ve barely experienced the real consequences of the soaring Gas price shock. The costs already hurt, but the economic damage could be crippling. It will become unavoidable. Crisis approaches… and soon. Winter is coming…

Vladimir Putin could not have planned or executed his crippling energy strike on Europe better.

While we promise ourselves Western Sanctions must be impacting Russia, the reality is Europe’s problems are about to get much, much worse through the run up to Winter. What possible incentives does Russia have to increase Nord Stream 1 supplies from their current 20% of capacity? They can feed Europe 1/6 of the Energy they delivered in January this year, and still make as much – selling the rest to the very many nations that have failed to condemn to assault on Ukraine. They may decide to cut supplies completely even as planned maintenance in Norway’s gas infrastructure cuts supplies.

A dismal European winter is coming, and European politicians will do anything to avert it. That will include appeasement – putting pressure on Ukraine to come to a deal with Russia that allows Putin to end the war looking like he achieved something. It would be a major long-term blow to Europe – knowing we’d had to cut a deal with the Devil, and would not immediately solve the West’s reliance on Russian power. (It could take 3 years before Europe can eliminate its reliance of Russian gas with new gas distribution infrastructure – but it can be done!)

Power cuts, factory closures, business crisis already appear nailed on. It’s difficult to contemplate German workers welcoming job losses and stagflation, plus the expectation they pay the costs of Southern Europe to cope with the Energy war – but that’s effectively the ECB strategy: to balance European debt market credibility with German money to support Italy’s debt weakness.

While there may be many good reasons and indications to accept the US economy has already passed the nadir of economic woe for this year, the instability engendered by rising European energy prices, the threat of autumnal and winter power outages, combined with rising industrial strife across Europe as inflation and power trigger rising wage demands… means the whole Western Economy is going to struggle. It’s difficult to envisage the US market thriving when Europe is suffering a potentially crippling winter of stagflation and economic strife.

At its most basic the strength of an economy boils down to how much consumption is occurring. Are consumers spending – do they have money to spend? Are companies investing? Is the government boosting economic activity through fiscal policy?

Consumers are in shock after the energy price shock and rising interest rates have put credit-addicted lifestyles on hold. Governments are trying to rein back spending on fears hefty debt loads and the looming threat of inflation will destabilise their economy: the virtuous sovereign credit of i) political stability, ii) steady bond market, iii) and a stable currency are under increasing threat, while corporates are looking at consumption and shaking their heads on new investments. How are government’s responding? With more austerity! We are doomed…

Europe looks a lot like a wasp’s nest at the end of summer – things may get substantially more painful.
 
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