MAIN EBOLA DISCUSSION THREAD - 09/16/2014 - 09/30/2014

[Countrymouse]

Reminder that Obama is coming to Atlanta Tuesday to "meet with CDC officials to discuss ebola."

WHAT exactly he's going to "discuss" I have no idea, but I fear a grandiose announcement of his "taking action" unilaterally with another Presidential EO along the lines of the post by Brewer above.

 

[Countrymouse]

This explains a LOT.

Atlanta news outlets haven't even been mentioning this (they've been downplaying the ebola threat, too, whether on orders from the CDC or higher-up who knows?)

Posted for fair use and discussion.
http://allafrica.com/view/group/main/main/id/00032577.html


West Africa: Obama to Announce Ebola Czar As Businesses, Senators Press for More

ALLAFRICA.COM, 13 SEPTEMBER 2014
By Tami Hultman and Reed Kramer

Washington, DC — President Obama will announce the appointment of a high-level coordinator to manage the U.S. response to the Ebola outbreak when he visits Atlanta on Tuesday, administration sources have told AllAfrica.

White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said Friday that the president is visiting the Atlanta, Georgia-based U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to receive a briefing from officials at the organization, whose director, Dr. Thomas Frieden, visited the region last month.

Obama will also discuss U.S. assistance to fight the Ebola virus and will thank the doctors, scientists and health care workers who have been engaged in the effort to stop its escalating spread. A stepped-up administration plan, which has been discussed by officials from across the executive branch for more than a month, received higher level attention this past week as the scope of the outbreak became more widely acknowledged – at least partly in response to pressure from private sector companies engaged in the most-affected countries and from members of Congress [See Ebola 'Racing Ahead' of Response]

Companies Organizing, Deploying Aid

ArcelorMittal, a multinational steel manufacturing corporation headquartered in Luxembourg - which has profitable iron ore mining operations in Liberia - has been hosting telephone conferences for a number of weeks among dozens of global companies, mostly in mining, on an Ebola response. After internal discussions, the companies widened the dialogue to include health officials, such as World Health Organization Director Margaret Chan.

Last Monday, chief executives from 11 of the companies operating in the three most-affected countries of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, made an urgent appeal for the international community "to pool its resources and lend support" to fight Ebola.

"Our companies have made long term commitments to these countries and their people and we intend to honour these commitments," the executives said. "Despite the challenging environment, we are continuing where possible with normal operations, with the health and safety of our employees being the absolute priority at all times."

Riva Levinson, whose boutique Washington DC-based firm KRL International serves both government and corporate clients in west Africa, applauded the private sector efforts as "a valuable tool for mobilization of resources". She noted that the corporate consultations started before global health organizations and governments, with few exceptions, recognized the urgency of a large-scale response.

Businesses have been sharing information and pooling assets for the Ebola fight in a creative and coordinated way that other sectors should emulate, she said in an interview.

"Companies are inventorying their assets to deploy on the front line to support humanitarian and healthcare workers on a real-time emergency basis," she said. Their activities include grading roads, providing equipment, including generators, and contributing materials such as chlorine solutions.

"It's not going to turn the tide," Levinson said of the corporate effort, "but it's going to have an impact."

United States envoys in the three most-affected countries are now points of contact for the broader donor and in-country efforts. There are working groups led by company teams at the operational level in each of the countries, and in Liberia that coordination is managed by a Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) from USAID.

Senators Call on Administration and Congress to Act

Speaking on the Senate floor on Thursday, Delaware Democrat Chris Coons, who heads the Foreign Relations Africa Subcommittee, called for the appointment of a coordinator, saying it is "critical" for the U.S. government to have "one leadership point". Coons appealed to the administration and members of Congress "to dramatically increase our support as communities across West Africa struggle to confront and combat Ebola."

Vermont Democrat Patrick Leahy also addressed the Senate, decrying "the lack of urgency exhibited by much of the international community" and governments, "including our own." He paid tribute to "courageous public health workers who have risked their lives" and to the Liberian government for its efforts "in the face of woefully inadequate resources."

Leahy, who chairs the subcommittee that oversees appropriations for the State Department and other international activities and is the Senate's most senior member, said large budget cuts at the World Health Organization contributed to the slow response, with "ample blame to go around."

He said Ebola is "a public health issue, a moral issue, and one that should unite us all to do what is necessary to defeat this epidemic."

On the House side of the U.S. Congress a hearing has been scheduled for Wednesday by the Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations to hear from the National Institutes of Health and other experts.

Waiting for More Government Engagement

The Obama administration raised hopes a week ago for the more robust response that the private sector and front-line treatment organizations – most prominently Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF / Doctors Without Borders) have been advocating. In an NBC Meet the Press interview last Sunday, Obama called Ebola "a national security priority" and pledged that "military assets" would be deployed to assist with efforts to end the epidemic.

The 11 corporate CEOs welcomed "the declaration by President Obama concerning US military support" as "exactly the type of action that is required."

The private sector and WHO had been calling for logistical and material support for treatment and isolation facilities in the region. They believed that international health workers would be reassured that they could be taken care of if they answered the call to support the hundreds of local clinicians and thousands of local volunteers who have felt abandoned in their efforts.

But the revelation that one of the interventions will be a 25-bed hospital in Monrovia to treat health workers spurred scathing critiques from despairing public health professionals and prompted a Twitter storm of derision. Administration officials countered the angry reactions by insisting that the complex facility is only one element of a larger response.

But even those who publicly praised the U.S. response have said it is still far too little to make the critical difference necessary if the epidemic is to be contained in the west African region.

President-to-President Appeal

Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, whose country has been hardest hit by the unprecedented outbreak, partly because of the improved road network leading from the border with Guinea to the Liberian capital Monrovia, made a direct appeal to her American counterpart in a letter dated 9 September.

"Our already limited resources have been stretched to breaking point and up to now only a private charity, Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF), has responded robustly in all the affected countries," she wrote. "But they too have reached their limits."

Johnson Sirleaf pointed out that MSF has over 400 beds of Ebola patients in the region "and not a single staff - medical or support - has ever gotten infected in those centers." The Liberian president also told President Obama: "Without more direct help from your government, we will lose this battle against Ebola."

Those working in the three countries - whether businesses or non-governmental organizations - share the conviction that much more must be done by the international community and that there must be a 'command and control' authority to coordinate the disparate efforts of both local governments and global partners. Only the United Nations, many believe, is positioned to play that essential role.

On Friday, during a meeting of the National Security Council Principals Committee, the Obama administration's senior interagency foreign policy decision-making forum, where Ebola was a principal topic for the second time that week, a series of new measures were agreed. Among them, according to officials familiar with the deliberations who are not authorized to speak on the record, was the naming of a senior official to oversee the government's efforts.

USAID, whose personnel in the affected countries include the DART team in Liberia, has contributed $19.5 million for the Ebola response in west Africa. The 'continuing resolution' on the U.S. budget that Congress is expected to pass before adjourning would add another $88 million designated for Ebola efforts. If additional funding the White House has requested for CDC is approved, the U.S. contribution would total about $250 million.

Bipartisan support appears to be growing in Congress for a larger scale supplemental appropriation to urgently address the escalating crisis.

The White House has not released details on an additional role for the Defense Department or the Pentagon's Africa Command. But on Friday, the American ambassador to Liberia, Deborah Malac, told reporters in Monrovia that Liberian security forces would be receiving training from the U.S. military.

The CDC that Obama will visit Tuesday is on "highest alert level", Dr. Tom Kenyon, director of the CDC Center for Global Health, told a briefing Friday for representatives of American companies at the Corporate Council on Africa (CCA) in Washington DC. Kenyon, who travelled to the three countries most directly impacted by the disease with CDC head Frieden, said that alert has only occurred four times this decade. CDC has nearly 200 personnel working on Ebola in Atlanta and about 105 in west Africa, he said.

The briefing included presentations by Deputy Secretary of State Bisa Williams, Dr. Marcos Espinal from the World Health Organization and Carol Chan from USAID. The officials stressed the pressing need for additional human and material resources and appealed for private sector assistance, particularly from those with applicable assets on the ground.

Company representatives expressed support but said efforts were hampered by lack of clarity on what is needed and uncertainty about coordination. They requested specifics on what medical supplies, pharmaceuticals and other forms of assistance are needed, and Dr. Espinal said WHO will be issuing a list within the next few days.

"Companies need to know where to go when they want to contribute materials, provide logistics or expertise or get advice for their employees," said CCA President Stephen Hayes, summing up what he is hearing from his corporate members. "Right now, I don't think that command-and-control function is in place - or if it is, it is not obvious to the private sector."

Tami Hultman reported from Kigali

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ation-shuffles-military-s-mission-Africa.html

US to send 3,000 troops to Ebola danger zone as Obama administration shuffles military's mission in Africa

The Obama administration said late Monday night that the U.S. military will set up a command post in Monrovia, Liberia, the Ebola outbreak's epicenter
'This effort ... will involve an estimated 3,000 U.S. forces,' according to the White House
Pentagon official says military will 'be the lead dog, and that will make a lot of people nervous. ... No one wants U.S. personnel enforcing someone else's martial law if things go south and the entire region is at risk'
U.S. Africa Command warns servicemen and women: 'Avoid nonessential travel to Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia'
Pentagon is drawing flak for sending 25-bed 'field-deployable hospital' that is meant to treat health care workers, not civilian victims
The U.S. president will travel to the CDC in Atlanta on Tuesday for a briefing about his government's efforts to stem the tide overseas

By David Martosko, Us Political Editor for MailOnline

Published: 23:01 EST, 15 September 2014 | Updated: 23:07 EST, 15 September 2014
Comments 123

The United States government is sending thousands of military troops to the west African nation of Liberia as part of the Obama administration's Ebola virus-response strategy, the White House said late Monday night.

'U.S. Africa Command will set up a Joint Force Command headquartered in Monrovia, Liberia, to provide regional command and control support to U.S. military activities and facilitate coordination with U.S. government and international relief efforts,' a statement from the White House press office said.

'A general from U.S. Army Africa, the Army component of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), will lead this effort, which will involve an estimated 3,000 U.S. forces.'

Liberia is the hardest-hit of the four west African nations that have confirmed Ebola cases, accounting for more than one-half of the fatalities. The others are Sierra Leone, Guinea and, to a lesser extent, Nigeria.
Even the littlest ones: Liberian Red Cross health workers wearing hazmat suits carry the body of a 18-month-old Ebola victim in Monrovia
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Even the littlest ones: Liberian Red Cross health workers wearing hazmat suits carry the body of a 18-month-old Ebola victim in Monrovia
AFRICOM is set to send 3,000 American military officers and enlisted personnel to Liberia soon
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AFRICOM is set to send 3,000 American military officers and enlisted personnel to Liberia soon
Modern-day lepers: In Liberia, suspected Ebola patients like this man (right) are seen most days lying near busy streets -- with most people terrified of touching them
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Modern-day lepers: In Liberia, suspected Ebola patients like this man (right) are seen most days lying near busy streets -- with most people terrified of touching them

Some of what America's armed personnel will do in Liberia is unclear. The White House said 'many' of them will be stationed at an 'intermediate staging base' where they will supervise the movement of medical staff, supplies and heavy equipment.

AFRICOM already warns its own personnel that they should 'avoid nonessential travel to Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia.'

And the Defense Department is concerned, one Pentagon official told MailOnline, about the public perceptions aroused when American G.I.s patrol ground zero in a disease outbreak that could plunge three or more countries into chaos if it worsens significantly.

Combat soldiers and Marines 'will be on hand and ready for anything,' said the official, who has knowledge of some, but not all, of the Ebola-related planning. 'But hopefully it will be all logistics and hospital-building.'

'The president has ordered us to help, and we're eager to do it,' he said. 'Now it looks like we're going to be the lead dog, and that's bound to make a lot of people nervous. It's understandable.'

'But no one wants U.S. personnel enforcing someone else's martial law if things go south and the entire region is at risk.'

More...

State Department orders 5,000 BODY BAGS and 160,000 hazmat suits for African Ebola outbreak as Obama sends 100 CDC experts
U.S. scientists say Ebola epiodemic will rage for another 12 to 18 months
'Now is the time to prepare': CDC issues Ebola action plan to US hospitals as experts fear it is 'only a matter of time' before the disease arrives on home soil
Medic becomes fourth doctor to die of Ebola in Sierra Leone after failed bid to move her to Germany for treatment
Microsoft to the rescue: Co-founders Paul Allen and Bill Gates donate nearly $62 MILLION to fight Ebola in West Africa and stop the spread of the deadly disease

'At this point in a response like this, we would normally play a support role for USAID and the CDC,' he said, referring to the U.S. Agency for International Development and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The official spoke on condition of anonymity.

The Fox News Channel reported on Sunday that the U.S. military's emphasis on Ebola prevention, driven by President Barack Obama, has stretched thin most if not all of its other missions.

A senior military official told Fox that General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at a recent meeting that 'the Department of Defense's number one priority is combating Ebola.'

The network's source commented that 'we don't need to be taking planners away from the CT [counter-terrorism] mission, and that is what is going on.'

Defense spending is down 21 per cent since 2010, the first fiscal year for which the Obama administration presided over the federal budget.

But the president is insisting that the military carry much of the burden in Africa.
'National security': President Obama said during a recent NBC News interview that African Ebola might be a threat to the U.S. if it was not crushed out quickly, and allowed to mutate
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'National security': President Obama said during a recent NBC News interview that African Ebola might be a threat to the U.S. if it was not crushed out quickly, and allowed to mutate
State of the art: In America, the few known Ebola patients -- all of them flown home from Africa -- have been cared for in high-tech isolation pods like this one, shown during a biocontainment drill
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State of the art: In America, the few known Ebola patients -- all of them flown home from Africa -- have been cared for in high-tech isolation pods like this one, shown during a biocontainment drill
Squalor: In Liberia, suspected Ebola patients often end up in the care of family members in conditions where poor sanitation and minimal medical care contribute to a township-wide downward spiral
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Squalor: In Liberia, suspected Ebola patients often end up in the care of family members in conditions where poor sanitation and minimal medical care contribute to a township-wide downward spiral

In a Sept. 7 interview on NBC's 'Meet the Press,' he called it a 'national security priority.'

'If we don't make that effort now, and this spreads not just through Africa, but other parts of the world, there's the prospect then that the virus mutates, it becomes more easily transmittable, and then it could be a serious danger to the United States,” said Obama.

White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest fielded questions Monday about the threat that a mutated Ebola virus could endanger the American population.

'Right now,' Earnest said, 'the risk of an Ebola outbreak in the United States is very low. But that risk would only increase if there were not a robust response on the part of the United States.'

'And that's why the president – among other things – that's one of the things that's motivating the president to direct an aggressive response.'

Obama will visit the CDC in Atlanta on Tuesday for a situation update, and to give a public speech about the need to regard Africa's public health crisis as a threat to the United States.

Earnest's office said Monday night that military engineers would be on hand in Liberia to build makeshift hospitals, and that the American government 'will help recruit and organize medical personnel to staff them.'

The Pentagon has also committed to construct and staff at least one 25-bed 'field-deployable hospital,' in Liberia, but The Washington Post reported last week that it will treat only infected health care workers – not civilian victims of the outbreak.
Scary: LIberians have become accustomed to seeing hazmat-outfitted medics and burial workers in their neighborhoods, but American military troops will be an entirely different sight
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Scary: LIberians have become accustomed to seeing hazmat-outfitted medics and burial workers in their neighborhoods, but American military troops will be an entirely different sight
The Ebola virus is spread through contact with bodily fluids, including blood, sweat and saliva. In some African cultures, preparing the dead for cremation involves physical contact with their remains -- something that has allowed the disease to spread quickly
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The Ebola virus is spread through contact with bodily fluids, including blood, sweat and saliva. In some African cultures, preparing the dead for cremation involves physical contact with their remains -- something that has allowed the disease to spread quickly

The U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corps will send 65 administrators, clinicians and support staff to run the facility.

That's a change from a week ago, when Army Colonel Steve Warren, a Pentagon spokesman, told Reuters that the military would turn the field hospital over to the Liberian government after it was built.

'No U.S. personnel right now will be providing patient care,' Col. Warren said on Sept. 8. We are deploying the hospital facility, setting it up, stockpiling it. We'll turn it over to the government of Liberia and then the DoD (Defense Department) personnel will depart," he said.

The World Health Organization says the current Ebola Virus Disease outbreak, a form of hemorrhagic fever, has infected more than 4,900 west Africans and killed at least 2,400, mostly in Liberia.

The State Department purchased a shipment of 5,000 body bags for its USAID mission in Liberia last month.

USAID is also procuring up to 160,000 hazmat suits for medical workers. The White House aid Monday night that USAID will soon airlift 130,000 of those 'sets of personal protective equipment' to health care workers in affected countries.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-military-s-mission-Africa.html#ixzz3DT0JMSwx
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

 

[willowlady]

So, we're sending the military. Nasty thought occurred to me: TPTB in this country are noting that the spread is not happening quickly enough to suit their purposes (Nov. elections, maybe?), so they are sending 3,000 of our into the hot zone with a great likelihood that many of the will come back very sick, ready and able to spread it quickly here. Timing's a bit dicey. Maybe not enough time.....

 

[bw]

Obama to Announce Ebola Czar

We're doomed. The czar's main job will be to make muslims feel welcomed in the US medical system. His secondary job will be to ensure that gays are not stigmatized in any way by Ebola because it has nothing to do with HIV. His third role will be to arrange Democratic fund-raisers to get contributions from manufacturers of medical supplies.

The czar will appoint a low-level flunky to deal with the actual Ebola infection thing. It will be his idiot brother-in-law.

 

[Medical Maven]

New Ebola is a relatively slow-rolling Black Swan, (as it is perceived from afar). But like an unstable shelf of snow and ice that has just cracked loose from the side of a mountain the perceptions of what is happening will catch up with reality.

And as this shelf slides down the mountain it will entangle and snare all of the other unstable elements on the side of the mountain, anything that is not bedrock firm.

All of the presently teetering financial and geopolitical structures that we have been viewing for years and wondering how they can continue to stand, (amazed at their resilience in defying gravity), will be grabbed and flung down the mountainside.

This is the Black Swan that we knew would eventually come along. This is the Black Swan that triggers all of those other events that we mistakenly called Black Swans, (not knowing what a Black Swan looked like until we actually saw one).

We are now seeing one for the first time in our lives.
__

 

[Oreally]

New Ebola is a relatively slow-rolling Black Swan, (as it is perceived from afar). But like an unstable shelf of snow and ice that has just cracked loose from the side of a mountain the perceptions of what is happening will catch up with reality.

And as this shelf slides down the mountain it will entangle and snare all of the other unstable elements on the side of the mountain, anything that is not bedrock firm.

All of the presently teetering financial and geopolitical structures that we have been viewing for years and wondering how they can continue to stand, (amazed at their resilience in defying gravity), will be grabbed and flung down the mountainside.

This is the Black Swan that we knew would eventually come along. This is the Black Swan that triggers all of those other events that we mistakenly called Black Swans, (not knowing what a Black Swan looked like until we actually saw one).

We are now seeing one for the first time in our lives.
__

i can't see who they can possibly still have this contained to only africa by christmas. given the numbers, and chance, i believe we will see it on at least one first world continent in force by then.

exactly what aspect of our teetering global society it will bring down first is anyone's guess. mine is the derivatives overhang.

 

[fi103r]

commodities options or Just In Time?

i can't see who they can possibly still have this contained to only africa by christmas. given the numbers, and chance, i believe we will see it on at least one first world continent in force by then.

exactly what aspect of our teetering global society it will bring down first is anyone's guess. mine is the derivatives overhang.

The first overhang will be the commodities markets. Look at all the stuff that comes from the affected areas.

Coffe/Iron Ore/ chocloate (hmm may need to stock up asap)/ etc, etc.

The production of same or protracted delays will cause knockon effects in the relevant markets so watch the commodities options specifically what parts of the options where people are looking for deliveries to keep their just in time, Just In Time. I think backwardiztions (is the even a word?) may evaporate.

 

[bw]

i can't see who they can possibly still have this contained to only africa by christmas. given the numbers, and chance, i believe we will see it on at least one first world continent in force by then.

If we have a 20% chance of it being on the loose in the US by end of September, the odds for the end of October must be close to 100% as makes no difference.

 

[BREWER]

If we have a 20% chance of it being on the loose in the US by end of September, the odds for the end of October must be close to 100% as makes no difference.

Greetings, bw: I agree. Here's the progression in west Africa up to early August. Take care. BREWER

Posted for fair use and discussion.
http://www.thewire.com/global/2014/0...africa/375231/

Jul 29, 2014 1:06PM ET / Ebola Outbreak
How the Ebola Outbreak Spread Across West Africa
Shirley Li

12,559 views
Image AP/Youssouf Bah Medical personnel prepare to care for Ebola patients in the Kenema District of Sierra Leone. (AP/YOUSSOUF BAH)

The West Africa Ebola outbreak has claimed more than 670 lives so far, spreading into four countries.

Its forest fire-like, rapidly-spreading nature, according to Stephan Monroe, deputy director of the C.D.C.'s National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, makes it a relentless virus. And, like forest fires, the outbreak can be "reseeded," sparking onto a new patient and ravaging a new region, as long as more victims are available for contact.

And despite international efforts, the fire's been hard to put out. Susan Rice, President Obama's national security adviser, told Reuters the epidemic is "very worrying." In the meantime, she said, the U.S. will remain "very much present and active in trying to help the countries of the region and the international authorities like the World Health Organization address and contain this threat."

Ebola has no treatment, no vaccine, and a fatality rate of up to 90 percent. Since its discovery in 1976, it has claimed more than 2,000 deaths out of its reported 3,140 cases, with the current version of the virus originally found in Zaire (now Democratic Republic of Congo).

"The response to this outbreak will be more of a marathon than a sprint," Monroe said.

We've traced coverage of the outbreak, and tracked its progress in the timeline below, as reported by the C.D.C. and the W.H.O.:

January 2014: Believed to be the month of origin of this outbreak, when the virus infected its first host and incubated.

February 2014: First cases of Ebola are reported in Guinea.

March 25, 2014: After suspected cases arise throughout its rural districts of Guekedou, Macenta, Nzerekore, and Kissidougou, the government of Guinea officially reports an outbreak of Ebola. Suspected cases are also reported in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Guinea enlists Doctors without Borders to establish Ebola treatment centers throughout the affected regions.

March 27, 2014: The virus reaches Guinea's capital of Conakry, the most populated—the city is home to 2 million people—site the outbreak has affected so far. The Bernhard-Nocht Institute of Tropical Medicine in Hamburg, Germany, and the Institut Pasteur in Dakar, Senegal, join the efforts of Institut Pasteur in Lyon, France, testing samples. Researchers confirm the virus is a strain of Ebola that had originally been discovered in Zaire (now Democratic Republic of Congo) in 1976.

March 29, 2014: The virus is confirmed to have reached Liberia.

March 31, 2014: More international organizations arrive in the region: The International Red Cross, Pentecostal Mission Unlimited, and Samaritan's Purse set up to spread awareness campaigns and distribute protective equipment. The W.H.O. leads the international response, and the C.D.C. sends a five-person team to help.

April 1, 2014: Guinea reports its first case of Ebola in the Djingaraye district, much farther north compared to the previously reported districts, indicating a new outbreak origin point.

April 7, 2014: The number of fatalities crosses 100 people, with 95 deaths in Guinea, and 7 in Liberia. Some of the cases include infected health workers.

April 30, 2014: The number of fatalities crosses 150 people, with 146 deaths in Guinea (16 of those being health care workers), and 9 deaths in Liberia.

May 27, 2014: The number of fatalities reaches 200 people, with 186 deaths in Guinea, 9 in Liberia, and 5 in Sierra Leone—the first deaths reported in the country. The WHO and CDC confirm that the country's Kailahun district is the outbreak's hot spot, while laboratory testing begins in the city of Kenema.

May 28, 2014: For the first time, cases are reported from the counties of Boffa, Boke, and Dubreka in western Guinea, covering a new region of the country.

June 2, 2014: The first suspect case is reported in Liberia since April 9, and investigations begin to contain yet another outbreak point. The stretch of time between the reports in Liberia exceeded the 21 days for Ebola to incubate.

June 18, 2014: The number of fatalities crosses 300 people, with 264 deaths in Guinea, 24 in Liberia, and 49 in Sierra Leone.

July 8, 2014: The number of fatalities crosses 500 people, with 307 deaths in Guinea, 84 in Liberia, and 127 in Sierra Leone.

July 18, 2014: The number of suspected cases crosses 1000, with 1048 people reached.

July 22, 2014: A Liberian official dies after landing in Lagos, Nigeria, the most populous city so far, with 21 million inhabitants. The death initiates a series of red alert responses from the country (now the fourth African country to include a case of Ebola), which increases surveillance at all ports of entry. Follow-up work begins in Togo, where the official's plane had also landed on its way to Nigeria.

July 23, 2014: The number of fatalities reaches 672 people, with 319 deaths in Guinea, 129 deaths in Liberia, and 224 deaths in Sierra Leone. In Sierra Leone, the leading doctor fighting the outbreak is reported to have been infected as well, after having treated more than 100 victims in the country.

July 25, 2014: Street protests occur in Kenema, Sierra Leone, resulting in police firing tear gas into the crowds that threatened the city's hospital. The protestors had planned to burn down the hospital and eradicate the virus—an approach that would not at all have prevented further outbreaks. Instead, the W.H.O. reports Guinea experiencing a surge in cases indicates further undetected chains of transmission.

July 26, 2014: The first death occurs in Sierra Leone's capital city of Freetown, and a leading doctor in Liberia succumbs to the virus.

July 27, 2014: The first Americans are infected in the outbreak. Both are health workers.

July 28, 2014: Nigeria suspends flights to Liberia and Sierra Leone for its largest air carrier, Arik Air.

July 29, 2014: Nigeria's Asky Air follows Arik and suspends flights to Liberia and Sierra Leone. The airline will screen passengers flying out of Guinea. Meanwhile, Liberia has suspended all soccer-related activities, as sweat is a bodily fluid that could allow for Ebola transmission. And according to the BBC, Dr. Sheik Umar Khan, the leading Ebola doctor in Sierra Leone who contracted the virus on July 23rd, has died:

Dr. Sheik Umar Khan, who has lead Ebola fight in Sierra Leone, dies after contracting the virus - @BBCWorld http://t.co/UHuAn7uQ3I
— Breaking News (@BreakingNews) July 29, 2014

The New York Times also reports that Liberia has announced the closing of all schools. The country's nonessential government workers will go on compulsory leave for 30 days, and more security will carry out an action plan to fight the outbreak.

July 30, 2014: Peace Corps temporarily pulls 340 volunteers from Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea, after two American Peace Corps volunteers were found to have been exposed to the disease.

Later that day, Sierra Leone, more than two months after the first cases appeared in the country, declares a health emergency over the outbreak. President Ernest Bai Koroma calls for the deployment of security forces to quarantine epicenters of infection, as well as the cancellation of his planned visit to the U.S. From the New York Times:

Public meetings will be restricted, houses will be searched for infected people, Parliament will be recalled and top officials will be obliged to cancel all but essential overseas travel.

'These measures will initially be implemented for a period of 60 to 90 days,' Mr. Koroma said, 'and subsequent measures will be announced as and when necessary.'

The total number of cases, according to the WHO, stands at 1,323 people, with 729 deaths.

August 4, 2014: Nigerian authorities confirm a second case of Ebola in the country, prompting a quarantine of eight others who may have come into contact with Patrick Sawyer, the Liberian-American man who died after landing in the Lagos airport.

Meanwhile, Mount Sinai Hospital in New York City said it is testing a patient who traveled from a West African country for Ebola.

BREAKING: Patient in NYC being tested for Ebola at Mount Sinai hospital. (WABC-TV)
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) August 4, 2014

Still, there's no need to panic: Ebola doesn't spread through the air, and it's easily contained in sanitary conditions. Again:

Ebola Freakout Flowchart Exchanging bodily fluids with victim? ↓ ↓ Yes No ↓ ↓ Worry Settle down
— pourmecoffee (@pourmecoffee) August 2, 2014

And if that hasn't convinced you:

Any hospital in the US can provide the appropriate level of care for persons with #ebola. #CDCchat
— CDC Emergency (@CDCemergency) August 4, 2014

August 6, 2014: Breathe, America. The patient in New York is fine:

ALERT: Sick patient at Mount Sinai Hospital in NYC has tested negative for the Ebola virus.
— CNBC Newsroom (@CNBCnow) August 6, 2014

 

[BREWER]

Posted for fair use and discussion.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/16/w...ounce-expanded-effort-against-ebola.html?_r=0


Obama to Announce Expanded Effort Against Ebola

By HELENE COOPER and MICHAEL D. SHEARSEPT. 15, 2014

WASHINGTON — Under pressure to do more to confront the Ebola outbreak sweeping across West Africa, President Obama on Tuesday is to announce an expansion of military and medical resources to combat the spread of the deadly virus, administration officials said.

The president will go beyond the 25-bed portable hospital that Pentagon officials said they would establish in Liberia, one of the three West African countries ravaged by the disease, officials said. Mr. Obama is expected to offer help to President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf of Liberia in the construction of five Ebola treatment centers around Monrovia, with about 500 beds.

In addition, Mr. Obama is expected to announce that he is appointing a woman as an Ebola czar to coordinate the American response, along with an increase in the number of doctors and other health care workers being sent to West Africa. The military is likely to provide medical supplies and training for African health care workers as they seek to contain the virus.

The Obama administration is also planning to send hundreds of thousands of Ebola home health and treatment kits to Liberia, Sad as well as tens of thousands of kits designed to test whether people have the disease. The Pentagon will provide some logistical equipment for health workers going to West Africa and what administration officials described as “command and control” organizational assistance on how to coordinate the overall relief effort. The Army Corps of Engineers is expected to be part of the Defense Department effort.

But the administration’s new efforts still appear to fall short of the 1,000 beds that Liberian officials and international aid groups say are needed in the next week alone to contain a disease that has been spreading exponentially.

The Center for Global Development, a research group based in Washington, called on Mr. Obama in an open letter on its website to order the Defense Department to deliver as many beds as possible to the region.

Pentagon officials say they do not expect the 25-bed portable facility to arrive for at least two weeks. Once it does, military officials say that they will set it up but not staff it.

On Monday top White House aides rejected criticism from African officials, doctors and representatives from aid groups who said that the United States had been slow to act in the face of the disease. Josh Earnest, the White House press secretary, said the government, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, had committed more than $100 million since the outbreak started in the early spring.

“The C.D.C. has responded commensurate to the seriousness” of the crisis, Mr. Earnest told reporters ahead of a trip Mr. Obama has planned to the C.D.C. headquarters in Atlanta on Tuesday afternoon. Mr. Earnest called the response “among the largest deployments of C.D.C. personnel ever.”

Senior administration officials conceded that the effort must expand further as the outbreak threatens to spread through more of Africa and, potentially, beyond the continent. Officials said medical experts in the government were genuinely worried about the possibility of a mutation that could turn the virus into a more contagious sickness that could threaten the United States.

Mr. Obama referred to that concern during an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press” last week. Mr. Earnest called the likelihood of a mutation “very low right now,” but said that the president would announce a broader “whole of government” effort to confront the virus more directly, including with more doctors, scientists and military resources.

“We are going to deploy their knowledge and resources,” Mr. Earnest said. He added that “our assistance has been steadily ramping up,” but said that the president’s remarks on Tuesday would represent a further expansion of those efforts.

Last week, the World Health Organization issued a dire Ebola warning for Liberia, saying that the number of afflicted patients was increasing exponentially and that all new treatment facilities were overwhelmed, “pointing to a large but previously invisible caseload.” The W.H.O. data indicated a 68 percent increase in Ebola cases in Liberia over the past three weeks. The description of the crisis in Liberia — one of the three West African countries, along with Sierra Leone and Guinea, at the center of the worst Ebola outbreak ever recorded — suggested an even more chaotic situation there than had been thought, with the highest cumulative number of reported cases and deaths.

Mrs. Johnson Sirleaf, who has implored Mr. Obama to do more to help her country battle the disease, traveled over the weekend through Monrovia, the Liberian capital, with the United States ambassador to Liberia, Deborah R. Malac. Mrs. Johnson Sirleaf identified five sites around the city to set up 100-bed Ebola treatment centers, officials in the region said.

White House officials said Mr. Obama’s announcement on Tuesday would underscore “just how extraordinarily serious” the administration was in confronting what they called a top national security priority.

“What is needed is on a scale that is unprecedented,” a senior administration official said in an interview, speaking on the condition of anonymity because she was not allowed by the White House to talk on the record ahead of Mr. Obama’s announcement. She said that the United States had already sent 10,000 Ebola test kits to Liberia and Sierra Leone.

The United States, a second senior administration official said, also plans to send 400,000 home protective kits to the four counties in Liberia that have been hardest hit by Ebola. The kits will include protective gear for family members, gloves and masks, disinfectants, fever-reducing drugs for patients and oral rehydration solutions.

The additional American effort will also consist of what officials described as an aggressive public education campaign, including radio advertising across Liberia offering advice on how people can protect themselves from Ebola.
_________________

 

[BREWER]

Posted for fair use and discussion. H/t Monotreme
http://theconversation.com/genetic-evolution-how-the-ebola-virus-changes-and-adapts-31525

Genetic evolution: how the Ebola virus changes and adapts

Glenn Marsh. 16 September 2014

The current outbreak of Ebola virus in West Africa is unprecedented in size, with nearly 4,800 confirmed or probable cases and more than 2,400 deaths. People have been infected in Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria and Senegal.

The World Health Organization declared this outbreak a “public health emergency of international concern” in August and estimates it will claim a staggering 20,000 lives within the next six months.

A second completely independent and significantly smaller Ebola virus outbreak has been detected in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Like all viruses, the Ebola virus has evolved since the outbreak began. So, how does this occur and how does it impact our attempts to contain the disease?

Tracking Ebola

Ebolavirus and the closely related Marburgvirus genera belong to the Filoviridae family. Both of these genera contain viruses that may cause fatal haemorrhagic fevers.

The Ebola virus genus is made up of five virus species: Zaire ebolavirus (responsible for both of the current outbreaks), Sudan ebolavirus, Reston ebolavirus, Bundibugyo ebolavirus and Taï Forest ebolavirus.

In order to better understand the origin and transmission of the current outbreak in West Africa, researchers from the Broad Institute and Harvard University, in collaboration with the Sierra Leone Ministry of Health, sequenced 99 virus genomes from 78 patients.

The study, reported in Science, shows the outbreak resulted from a single introduction of virus into the human population and then ongoing human-to-human transmission. The scientists reported more than 300 unique changes within the virus causing the current West African outbreak, which differentiates this outbreak strain from previous strains.

Within the 99 genomes sequenced from this outbreak, researchers have recorded approximately 50 other changes to the virus as it spreads from person to person. Future work will investigate whether these differences are contributing to the severity of the current outbreak.

These 99 genome sequences have been promptly released to publicly available sequence databases such as Genbank, allowing scientists globally to investigate changes in these viruses. This is critical in assessing whether the current molecular diagnostic tests can detect these strains and whether experimental therapies can effectively treat the circulating strains.

How does Ebola evolve?

This is the first Ebola virus outbreak where scientists have sequenced viruses from a significant number of patients. Despite this, the Broad Institute/Harvard University study findings are not unexpected.

The Ebola virus genome is made up of RNA and the virus polymerase protein that does not have an error-correction mechanism. This is where it gets a little complicated, but bear with me.

As the virus replicates, it is expected that the virus genome will change. This natural change of virus genomes over time is why influenza virus vaccines must be updated annually and why HIV mutates to become resistant to antiretroviral drugs.

Changes are also expected when a virus crosses from one species to another. In the case of Ebola virus, bats are considered to be the natural host, referred to as the “reservoir host”. The virus in bats will have evolved over time to be an optimal sequence for bats.

Crossing over into another species, in this case people, puts pressure on the virus to evolve. This evolution can lead to “errors” or changes within the virus which may make the new host sicker.

Ebola viruses are known to rapidly evolve in new hosts, as we’ve seen in the adaptation of lab-based Ebola viruses to guinea pigs and mice. This adaptation occurred by passing a low-pathogenic virus from one animal to the next until the Ebola virus was able to induce a fatal disease. Only a small number of changes were required in both cases for this to occur.

While this kind of viral mutation is well known with other viruses, such as influenza virus, we are only truly appreciating the extent of it with the Ebola viruses.

What do the genetic changes mean?

The Broad Institute/Harvard University study reported that the number of changes in genome sequences from this current outbreak was two-fold higher than in previous outbreaks.

This could be due to the increased number of sequences obtained over a period of several months, and the fact that the virus has undergone many person-to-person passes in this time.

However, it will be important to determine if virus samples from early and late in the outbreak have differing ability to cause disease or transmit. The genetic changes may, for example, influence the level of infectious virus in bodily fluids, which would make the virus easier to spread.

Analysing this data will help us understand why this outbreak has spread so rapidly with devastating consequences and, importantly, how we can better contain and manage future outbreaks.

 

[BREWER]

Posted for fair use and discussion. H/t Pixie
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/16/health-ebola-spread-idUSL6N0RH2T320140916?rpc=401

Liberia must wait weeks or months for new Ebola centres - WHO

GENEVA, Sept 16 Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:03am EDT

(Reuters) - The Ebola response in Liberia, the country worst hit by the outbreak, will focus on community-level care units since new bed spaces are unlikely to be ready for weeks or months, World Health Organization Assistant Director General Bruce Aylward said on Tuesday.

The WHO still has a goal to "bend the curve" in total Ebola case numbers across West Africa within three months, but some areas may be free of the disease sooner, he said.

"You definitely want to get Nigeria and Senegal obviously done quickly. In some capitals - Freetown, Conakry - we should be able to get those free in the near term. Guinea should be able to get most of the country free in the very near term as well," Aylward said.

(Reporting by Tom Miles, editing by Stephanie Nebehay)

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Posted for fair use and discussion.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/16/us-ebola-who-idUSKBN0HB15J20140916

Ebola cases may be kept within tens of thousands, WHO says

GENEVA Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:08am EDT


(Reuters) - The unprecedented Ebola outbreak in West Africa requires a $1 billion response to keep its spread within the "tens of thousands" of cases, United Nations officials said on Tuesday.

The virus has killed 2,461 people, half of the 4,985 infected by the virus, and the toll has doubled in the last month, World Health Organization Assistant Director General Bruce Aylward said.

"Quite frankly, ladies and gentlemen, this health crisis we're facing is unparalleled in modern times," Aylward told a news conference in Geneva. "We don't know where the numbers are going on this."

He said the WHO's previous forecast that the number of cases could reach 20,000 no longer seemed a lot, but the number could be kept within the tens of thousands with "a much faster reponse".

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon will launch a "global response coalition" in New York on Thursday, said Dr. David Nabarro, senior U.N. coordinator for Ebola.

"The amount for which we requested was about $100 million a month ago and now it is $1 billion, so our ask has gone up 10 times in a month," Nabarro told reporters.

"Because of the way the outbreak is advancing, the level of surge we need to do is unprecedented, it is massive," he said.

The United States announced on Tuesday that it would send 3,000 troops to help tackle the Ebola outbreak as part of a ramped-up response including a major deployment in Liberia, the country where the epidemic is spiraling fastest out of control.

(Reporting by Tom Miles and Stephanie Nebehay; editing by Ralph Boulton)

============================================
Posted for fair use and discussion.
http://www.doctorswithoutborders.or...social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=social

MSF International President Addresses UN Briefing on West Africa Ebola Outbreak

September 16, 2014


Remarks by Dr. Joanne Liu

International President, Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF)

Geneva, September 16, 2014

Ms. Under Secretary General, Mr. Special Coordinator, Mr. Assistant Director General, Distinguished Delegates, ladies and gentlemen.

Two weeks ago, I made an urgent appeal to member states of the United Nations in New York for your help in stemming the Ebola epidemic in West Africa. Many other organisations, such as the CDC, the WHO, and the UN, have also described the unfolding catastrophe.

Yet, since then, only a few countries have promised to deploy more hands-on capacity to the affected countries such as the United States of America, United Kingdom, China, France and Cuba, or the European Union. We understand President Obama will announce later today plans to deploy military and medical assistance to West Africa. If this is true – but we have no real details yet on what this deployment entails, and how fast it will be – then it shows that the US is willing to lead by example. Other countries need to follow.

Today, the response to Ebola continues to fall dangerously behind, and I am forced to reiterate the appeal I made two weeks ago:

We need you on the ground. The window of opportunity to contain this outbreak is closing. We need more countries to stand up, we need greater deployment, and we need it NOW. This robust response must be coordinated, organized and executed under clear chain of command.

Today, in Monrovia, sick people are banging on the doors of MSF Ebola care centres, because they do not want to infect their families and they are desperate for a safe place in which to be isolated.

Tragically, our teams must turn them away. We simply do not have enough capacity for them. Highly infectious people are forced to return home, only to infect others and continue the spread of this deadly virus. All for a lack of international response.

As of today, MSF has sent more than 420 tonnes of supplies to the affected countries. We have 2,000 staff on the ground. We manage more than 530 beds in five different Ebola care centres. Yet we are overwhelmed. We are honestly at a loss as to how a single, private NGO is providing the bulk of isolation units and beds.

We are unable to predict how the epidemic will spread. We are dealing largely with the unknown. But we do know that the number of recorded Ebola cases represents only a fraction of the real number of people infected. We do know that transmission rates are at unprecedented levels. We do know that communities are being decimated. And, with CERTAINTY, we know that the ground response remains totally, and lethally, inadequate.

With every passing week, the epidemic grows exponentially. With every passing week, the response becomes all the more complicated.

More countries must deploy their civil defence and military assets, and medical teams, to contain the epidemic. Large numbers of trained staff are needed to tend to patients in basic and efficient isolation wards and tent hospitals, which can be established quickly on open ground in a comparatively straight forward logistical operation.

The fight against this outbreak is more than just about controlling the virus. While thousands have died of Ebola, many more are dying from easily treatable conditions and diseases because health centres no longer function.Health structures need support to start working again and reduce death rates and suffering caused by other untreated ailments.

Meanwhile, efforts towards producing an effective vaccine must continue, in order to cut the chain of transmission. But it must be a vaccine of proven safety and efficiency and of wide availability. Until that day comes, we must act as if no vaccine exists.

How the world deals with this unprecedented epidemic will be recorded in history books. This is a regional crisis with economic, social and security implications that reach far beyond the borders of the affected countries.

States have a political and humanitarian responsibility to halt this mounting disaster

It can only be done by massively deploying assets to the field, and battling the epidemic at its roots.

The first pledges have been made, now more countries must urgently also mobilise. The clock is ticking.

 

[Bob1313]

Gotta wonder if there would be the same response and outpouring of taxpayer money if this was happening in Sweden or maybe Iceland? Somehow I seriously doubt it.

I say send in the African American U.S. troops to help out their endangered brothers, they can help save the homeland and go down in history as great warrior soldiers, maybe they'll get a movie deal like the Tuskegee Airmen

 

[Reborn]

Link to previous Ebola thread for info purposes: http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?454641-MAIN-EBOLA-DISCUSSION-THREAD-09-01-14-09-15-14

 

[Kris Gandillon]

New WHO numbers up.

These numbers are for counts through 9/9/2014 for Liberia with the rest up thru 9/13/2014. I also include the DR Congo numbers in my totals which WHO still insists on keeping separately since they classify it as a separate outbreak and report on it separately.

My totals for ALL African countries that WHO is tracking is:

5,047 Infected and 2,496 Dead for a CFR of 49% and an R0 for September thru just a little over 1 week so far of 2.232 which at this point of the month is about right to end the month at around 2.785 like we did in August.

Unless and until something changes, my spreadsheet is still tracking towards ending September at 10,263 Infected and 5,029 dead. Of course, the real numbers are likely 4 times as high.

 

[Dennis Olson]

Kris, you're fat-fingering the CLOSE THREAD checkbox again...

 

[Possible Impact]

Kris, you're fat-fingering the CLOSE THREAD checkbox again...

Maybe his computer has EBOLA virus?
(Enemy Binary Object, Launched Asynchronously)

 

[Possible Impact]

New WHO numbers up.

These numbers are for counts through 9/9/2014 for Liberia with the rest up thru 9/13/2014. I also include the DR Congo numbers in my totals which WHO still insists on keeping separately since they classify it as a separate outbreak and report on it separately.

My totals for ALL African countries that WHO is tracking is:

5,047 Infected and 2,496 Dead for a CFR of 49% and an R0 for September thru just a little over 1 week so far of 2.232 which at this point of the month is about right to end the month at around 2.785 like we did in August.

Unless and until something changes, my spreadsheet is still tracking towards ending September at 10,263 Infected and 5,029 dead. Of course, the real numbers are likely 4 times as high.

WHO PDF Roadmap Update 16 September 2014
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/133546/1/roadmapupdate16sept14_eng.pdf

 

[Kris Gandillon]

Kris, you're fat-fingering the CLOSE THREAD checkbox again...

I INTENTIONALLY closed the prior thread when I started this one.

Or are you saying I closed THIS one too???

 

[NWPhotog]

The barista at our local Starbucks and I were talking about "bad stuff" in the world today. She told me that a family she knows in New Guinea has a daughter with Ebola. "With Ebola - really??" "Yup"

 

[Avatar]

Ebola outbreak “out of all proportion” and severity cannot be predicted

http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/newsandev...portion148_and_severity_cannot_be_predicted1/

A mathematical model that replicates Ebola outbreaks can no longer be used to ascertain the eventual scale of the current epidemic, finds research conducted by the University of Warwick.

Dr Thomas House, of the University’s Warwick Mathematics Institute, developed a model that incorporated data from past outbreaks that successfully replicated their eventual scale.

The research, titled Epidemiological Dynamics of Ebola Outbreaks and published by eLife, shows that when applying the available data from the ongoing 2014 outbreak to the model that it is, according to Dr House, “out of all proportion and on an unprecedented scale when compared to previous outbreaks”.

Dr House commented: “If we analyse the data from past outbreaks we are able to design a model that works for the recorded cases of the virus spreading and can successfully replicate their eventual size. The current outbreak does not fit this previous pattern and, as a result, we are not in a position to provide an accurate prediction of the current outbreak”.

Chance events, Dr House argues, are an essential factor in the spread of Ebola and many other contagious diseases. “If we look at past Ebola outbreaks there is an identifiable way of predicting their overall size based on modelling chance events that are known to be important when the numbers of cases of infection are small and the spread is close to being controlled”.

Chance events can include a person’s location when they are most infectious, whether they are alone when ill, the travel patterns of those with whom they come into contact or whether they are close to adequate medical assistance.

The Warwick model successfully replicated the eventual scale of past outbreaks by analysing two key chance events: the initial number of people and the level of infectiousness once an epidemic is underway.

“With the current situation we are seeing something that defies this previous pattern of outbreak severity. As the current outbreak becomes more severe, it is less and less likely that it is a chance event and more likely that something more fundamental has changed”, says Dr House.

Discussing possible causes for the unprecedented nature of the current outbreak, Dr House argues that there could be a range of factors that lead it to be on a different scale to previous cases;

“This could be as a result of a number of different factors: mutation of virus, changes in social contact patterns or some combination of these with other factors. It is implausible to explain the current situation solely through a particularly severe outbreak within the previously observed pattern”.

In light of the research findings and the United Nations calling for a further $1bn USD to tackle the current outbreak, Dr House says that “Since we are not in a position to quantify the eventful scale of this unprecedented outbreak, the conclusion from this study is not to be complacent but to mobilise resources to combat the disease.”

16 September 2014

The paper can be viewed here: http://elifesciences.org/content/elife/early/2014/09/12/eLife.03908.full.pdf

 

[Kris Gandillon]

The barista at our local Starbucks and I were talking about "bad stuff" in the world today. She told me that a family she knows in New Guinea has a daughter with Ebola. "With Ebola - really??" "Yup"

We better warn our Aussie friends to watch out for Ebola boat-people refugees from New Guinea then!

 

[psychgirl]

News conference was just on Fox-Obammy was speaking with CDC behind him. All I heard him say was that the death toll was higher than we've thought....sure there was more, but only caught the last minute or so.

 

[Walkin' Away]

I just watched the press conference... All hail the great and mighty BHO....savior of the world and those who are oppressed.

Guess I'm a bit skeptical about all this and the truth being told to us. Softening up the masses for the inevitable perhaps?

Too bad that he didn't think to try all these heroic measures back in March or April.

Is there still room at Camp Fooked for a medical professional and her dogs?

Take Care All..... W.A.

 

[ainitfunny]

New Ebola is a relatively slow-rolling Black Swan, (as it is perceived from afar). But like an unstable shelf of snow and ice that has just cracked loose from the side of a mountain the perceptions of what is happening will catch up with reality.

And as this shelf slides down the mountain it will entangle and snare all of the other unstable elements on the side of the mountain, anything that is not bedrock firm.

All of the presently teetering financial and geopolitical structures that we have been viewing for years and wondering how they can continue to stand, (amazed at their resilience in defying gravity), will be grabbed and flung down the mountainside.

This is the Black Swan that we knew would eventually come along. This is the Black Swan that triggers all of those other events that we mistakenly called Black Swans, (not knowing what a Black Swan looked like until we actually saw one).

We are now seeing one for the first time in our lives.
__

Wow. I found your analysis, like an intricate jigsaw puzzle piece , fitting perfectly as the "obvious" (once someone like you shows us ) answer to the questions you rose! It has such a ring of truth it is still reverberating ten minutes after i read it.
I shudder that "something wicked this way comes"!!

 

[JohnGaltfla]

Gang, if anyone DIRECTLY involved in the medical community has any information, please check out my thread in the BS and add any info that you can. I can not post it in this thread because I have no verification beyond FOAF who has yet to give me any documentation to support it.

 

[Kris Gandillon]

Ebola outbreak “out of all proportion” and severity cannot be predicted

“With the current situation we are seeing something that defies this previous pattern of outbreak severity. As the current outbreak becomes more severe, it is less and less likely that it is a chance event and more likely that something more fundamental has changed”, says Dr House.

Discussing possible causes for the unprecedented nature of the current outbreak, Dr House argues that there could be a range of factors that lead it to be on a different scale to previous cases;

“This could be as a result of a number of different factors: mutation of virus, changes in social contact patterns or some combination of these with other factors. It is implausible to explain the current situation solely through a particularly severe outbreak within the previously observed pattern”.

This is what happens when one-dimensional, trained beyond their usefulness, academic types look at something like this.

“This could be as a result of a number of different factors: mutation of virus, changes in social contact patterns or some combination of these with other factors. It is implausible to explain the current situation solely through a particularly severe outbreak within the previously observed pattern”

Yea, no duh...thank you Mr. Obvious. It is IMPOSSIBLE for a model that works for outbreaks in small villages (ALL previous Ebola outbreaks) to possibly work for outbreaks that are occurring in highly populated areas. Maybe AFTER THE FACT, he can produce a new model for LARGE POPULATION outbreaks.

While he briefly mentions "population" THAT is the one key variable that he left out of his model...there is really nothing in there that accounts for population in an area or population density in an area which is obviously a significant key difference in this outbreak and all prior outbreaks. The other outbreaks were somewhat self-limiting in that it either burned through just about the entire village or it was in an area where once the Healthcare Workers arrived, the population was small enough that they COULD be somewhat "managed and controlled".

 

[Doomer Doug]

The term Czar is a derivative from the Latin Caesar. We get the German Kaiser, the Russian Czar from the original Latin Caesar. The use of Czar in English is meant to convey the Roman idea of appointing a dictator to deal with a specific issue. Obama is saying he has now appointed this Czar who will be in charge. Y2K had its own Czar also. This is really just political posturing in my opinion.

Over the last week or so we have seen the "system" having press conferences to show they are now "in charge" of Ebola. We had Bill and Melinda Gates with their $62 million donation. We have Obama appointing a Czar, giving some money and sending in 3,000 troops. While this all looks good in the media, the reality is far different. If, repeat if, this had been done in July, well it would have had a positive impact. There is no way any of this promised aid can get to Liberia before the end of September at the absolute earliest. The battle is lost for Liberia. There is now nothing that can be done to reign Ebola in. All this spin control is too little and too late in my opinion.


This is what economist John Kenneth Galbraith called "organized reassurance" in his book on the Great Depression. It is designed to "show people" the authorities are in control, on top of the situation, taking timely and effective action. HA HA HA! What it really is designed to do is look like you are doing something, without actually doing anything.

Bill and Melinda Gates donation will take several weeks/months to PHYSICALLY GET TO LIBERIA. They will have to order the production of the stuff, followed by shipping it to Liberia, which will mean they will have to unload it, hopefully without most of it being stolen and diverted to the black market; finally, they will have to get it to the hospital for use. Like I said, this will take a month or two at the best, even if they fly it in.

The military will also take two to four weeks to get to Liberia, set up shop etc. If you look at what happened in the Haiti earthquake military response you will see a repeat.

The situation in Liberia is totally out of control, and this new aid will have no material impact for the foreseeable future. It will allow "them" to look like they are responding to the Ebola crisis. Drudgereport.com has a screaming headline "World War E."

The sheeple are starting to get nervous. The powers that be hold a press conference, look functional and people go back to sleep. By the way, of all the money "promised" to help Haiti a lot of it was never actually given.

Kris, two months from now Liberia will be a sea of corpses. We will see what Bill and Melinda Gates have to say then. Considering they have been funding Malaria treatment in Africa, you would think they would have been off the starter block for Ebola several months ago.

Yep, the world is going to see an unprecedented humanitarian disaster in Africa. I think the 500 million dead in Africa figure Kris used is fairly accurate. The pathetic efforts announced this week will not change that at all.

 

[Doomer Doug]

I see the whole African Ebola situation in the same way I see the Fukushima one.

Fukushima is a Japan first issue. It has had impact on the US West Coast etc, but the primary impact is Japan.

Ebola is an African first issue. This doesn't mean it won't have a global impact under certain conditions. It may or may not have a medical impact globally. If it doesn't have a medical impact, it will certainly have a political, economic and social impact.

The jury is still out on a global pandemic based on what happens in Nigeria. The issue of a regional epidemic in Africa is settled. The regional epidemic process is well underway, shows no sign of slowing down, much less stopping.

The psychological impact on the rest of the world dealing with 500 million dead Africans will be profound.

 

[Dennis Olson]

I INTENTIONALLY closed the prior thread when I started this one.

Or are you saying I closed THIS one too???

You closed this one. I opened it again.

 

[psychgirl]

Just wait until the first photos of piles of corpses, bloody piles of what used to be living people, laying in the streets will do to the rest of the world. Or an actual video is leaked out showing a dying people vomiting and spewing blood everywhere....think about that for a minute.

 

[Kris Gandillon]

This thing is going to sort of be like watching the Stock Market. There are going to be different "levels", basically monthly boundaries, that we break through and then you kind of take a step back at each level and consider what new factors if any, are going to take us to the next level or keep us from reaching that next level.

We are at least at 2,500 dead today - 9/16/2014. The trend says 5,000 dead by then end of the month. That one is almost a no brainer.

Then 15,000 by the end of October. If we reach that, it says the R0 of 2.785 is not changing much and is still cranking as it has been for 3 months by that point.

Then over 40,000 by the end of November. These are huge headline grabbing jumps now.

Over 100,000 by Christmas. It is still largely "over there" we HOPE, but the sheep should be getting mighty antsy at this point.

Over 1 million dead by early March 2015 and 2.5 million dead by the end of March. People who never understood exponential before now are understanding it.

20 million dead by first week of June 2015 with over 50 million by the end of June...see how this works at this point? And it could STILL be largely in Africa-only at this point...but the chances are very slim that it hasn't slipped out and now it is big news elsewhere as well.

By the first week of September, 500 Million dead...roughly HALF the population of the entire continent of Africa.

All of the above is pretty much WORSE CASE POSSIBILITY as things stand today. The above assumes the R0 stays at around 2.785 and the CFR at around 50%. Those are the two variables that cause the numbers and timings to change....as they have proven for the last almost 7 months now.

The question is...what is going to make the next 12 months different from the last 7 months?

 

[Doomer Doug]

The brief version of the 9-13-2014 WHO figures are as follows.

One third of all Ebola cases in Guinea happened in the last 3 weeks.

57 percent of ALL Ebola cases in Liberia happened in the last three weeks.

40 Percent of ALL Ebola cases in Sierra Leone happened in the last three weeks.

NUFF SAID

 

[Intestinal Fortitude]

Just wait until the first photos of piles of corpses, bloody piles of what used to be living people, laying in the streets will do to the rest of the world. Or an actual video is leaked out showing a dying people vomiting and spewing blood everywhere....think about that for a minute.

CNN's ratings will go UP and then the viewers will go back to their Facebook, America's Got Talent, Starbuck's, Global warming, et al.
Even if it was here, most people are so disconnected (delusional) from reality that they FEEL they are somehow removed and protected from the realities of
planet Earth. Many will see it as entertainment, as something that cannot touch them.

Others will become very dramatic and noisy about it in an effort to use it to call attention to themselves (a la Jesse Jackson and Sharpton).

When it actually inconveniences them, then they might take heed.

 

[Possible Impact]

The brief version of the 9-13-2014 WHO figures are as follows.

One third of all Ebola cases in Guinea happened in the last 3 weeks.

57 percent of ALL Ebola cases in Liberia happened in the last three weeks.

40 Percent of ALL Ebola cases in Sierra Leone happened in the last three weeks.

NUFF SAID

Maia Majumder, MPH @maiamajumder · 14m
#Ebola in #WestAfrica:
As of today, September counts have surpassed
the number of new cases reported in August.
pic.twitter.com/ff31RBC4xY

 

[Kris Gandillon]

Maia Majumder, MPH @maiamajumder · 14m
#Ebola in #WestAfrica:
As of today, September counts have surpassed
the number of new cases reported in August.
pic.twitter.com/ff31RBC4xY

I do not know where they got the numbers for the above chart but I have all the WHO reports in a spreadsheet and here are the numbers for July, August and September so far:

July's NEW cases were 602 - Month-end count was 1,324
August's NEW cases were 2,361 - Month-end count was 3,685
So far in September, we have had 1,362 NEW cases - current count 5,047

So no way the WHO new cases for September have already passed August's new cases (at least not on any WHO report I can find).


ETA: The above numbers MAY be extrapolated to project unreported counts.


We *have* been running at an average of around 150 new cases per day during September which *IS* double the average daily rate in August which was 76 cases.


But the current WHO reports only go thru 9/9 for Liberia and 9/13 for Guinea and Sierra Leone.

 

[Possible Impact]

Maia Majumder, MPH
@maiamajumder

PhD student [@MIT].
Research fellow [@healthmap].
Engineer, epidemiologist [@TuftsUniversity alum].
Tweets RE: infectious disease, biostatistics, data analytics
Boston, MA, USA
maimunamajumder.com
Joined September 2012



Maia Majumder, MPH @maiamajumder · 2m
#Ebola in #WestAfrica:
Seemingly sudden spike in new reported cases as of today.
Thoughts? (i.e. Data entry backlog?)
pic.twitter.com/PA6gmt4kZz


^^^ This might be it, she is "Well Connected" with the WHO/CDC crowd.



maimunamajumder.com

Maimuna (Maia) Majumder is an Engineering Systems PhD student at MIT
and computational epidemiology research fellow at HealthMap.

Before coming to MIT, she earned a Bachelors of Science in Engineering Science
and a Masters of Public Health in Epidemiology and Biostatistics at Tufts University.
Her research interests involve probabilistic modeling, Bayesian statistics, and
“shoe-leather” epidemiology in the context of emerging infectious diseases.
She also enjoys exploring novel techniques for data procurement, writing
about data for the general public, and creating meaningful data visualizations.

When taking a break from work, Maia moonlights as a jazz vocalist, budding chef,
and primal wellness enthusiast who loves Bikram yoga, Zumba, & lifting heavy
objects with her awesome husband, Imran Malek.


Thesis Research: Coupled system dynamics model development
of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in Saudi Arabia;
special emphasis on
(1) interactions between nosocomial and zoonotic transmission cycles,
(2) impact of unique migratory flows on population prevalence and risk
of exportation

Diseases of Interest: MERS, Ebola, cholera, polio, chikungunya, malaria, dengue, influenza​

 

[Intestinal Fortitude]

Heard about this site on radio:

http://ahi-global.org/main/main/


Dr. James Appel is a '00 LLU graduate from the School of Medicine that is currently working at Cooper Adventist Hospital in Liberia to help during the Ebola Crisis. This is his personal log of events throughout his experience there.

Newest entries will be posted at top. Please scroll down to start at the beginning of his story.

BLUR
September 12, 2014 at 1:10pm

I’m losing track of time. Cases and patients are coming in and out of my memory. I can’t even remember sequences of events or what day it all happened. I’m not sure now if things happened all in a day or a week or what. It’s all becoming a blur of images flashing through my mind as I try and grab some food here and some sleep there (and the occasional surf thrown in for good measure.)

A tiny 16 year old referred from an outside clinic after three days of labor. The cervix is completely dilated and the baby’s head very molded. There are no fetal heart tones. I set up for a symphysiotomy. I inject the skin and subcutaneous tissues down to the cartilage of the pubis and then slice down, cut through the cartilage and have my assistants put gentle downward pressure on the legs until the pelvis splits apart a few centimeters. The baby is still having a difficult time coming out. I add oxytocin to the saline drip. I inject the labia and do a mediolateral episiotomy. By the time the huge dead baby comes out she also has a massive periurethral tear up into the symphysiotomy wound.

I’m leaning over from the side with almost no light. Mr. Wezzeh has Gillian’s headlamp which helps tremendously, as long as he’s looking where I’m working. I begin the repair with the sympysiotomy wound which is easily closed in two layers. Then I work on the periurethral tear. The anatomy is distorted and she’s bleeding heavily. I’m holding down pressure as I call for more lap sponges. I’m also massaging the uterus and having the midwives give more oxytocin and ergometrine. I finally am able to pull the urethra back to the side wall and then close the vaginal mucosa. The repair of the episiotomy is easy after that running from inside to out and back again in a continuous suture line.

She looks pale afterwards. Jeff is there since it’s early evening already. He does a hemoglobin. It’s 3 g/dl. She needs blood. The family has gone home. Jeff knows someone who sells his blood. He comes in a gives. Kind of sketchy if you ask me in the days of Ebola. The girl gets one measly bag. The sister refuses to donate. Everyone else is “far away” and of course there’s the curfew. I hope she makes it through the night as I put her on a quinine drip. Did I mention she came in with fever? I’m glad her malaria smear is positive. I’d hate to think she had Ebola with all that blood flying around.

The outpatient department is crowded. I’m called out to see three guys coming from the same neighborhood who’ve all started vomiting now. We’ve built a crude lean-to against the outside wall of the hospital with a tarp stretched over the top to shield the patients from the sun or rain. They have to wait outside often for hours waiting to be screened and seen by a provider. No one seems to be too concerned about the vomiting as people are still sitting in relatively close proximity. I take the first guys temperature: 39.1 C. He looks Ebola-ish with red eyes and a haunting stare with sunken cheek bones. Even though he denies diarrhea I don’t believe him…either that or it’s about to start. I refer all three to the ELWA Ebola treatment center.

I’m called out to see a woman in a black pickup truck. She looks like death warmed over. She’s unconscious and has labored breathing. Her conjunctiva look normal and she has no gingival bleeding. The family of course denies nausea and vomiting. They say she just “fell off” last night (meaning she passed out). I check her temperature: 41.3 C! I’m still amazed at my continuing gullibility as I have them bring her in to the ER. After all it’s probably malaria right? I start an IV on each arm and get Dextrose running in one and Saline in the other. I then start a Quinine drip and have them give Ceftriaxone IV. I go away. They call me from lunch to say she’s vomited. I go in and she’s doing slightly better except still unconscious and lying in her own vomit.

I want to send her away immediately, but the ER nurse says we’ve already started treatment, let’s do a malaria smear and see what it shows. A few minutes later it comes back negative. The truck has left but the caretaker calls them back. They call me when the truck arrives. I explain to the family leader that I suspect Ebola. He says he’s part of the Ebola Task Force and pulls out an infrared thermometer from his pocket. He informs me he checks everyone’s temperature all the time and she didn’t have a fever before. He agrees to take her to ELWA so I prepare a referral form. Then I get protective gowns, gloves, masks, etc. for the two people who will carry her out.

I go and clear the lobby. I have everyone sit over in the corner. I go out side and clear people to under the overhang. Some people are angry and ask who I think I am to talk to them that way. Do I think I can just order them around? I of course don’t bridle my tongue and get into some useless wars of words. I also have the other cars move away from the truck. When the coast is clear I have the team bring out the woman. When Ebola task force man sees that I’ve had everyone move aside he is angry and shouts at me, accusing me of making it out as if she has Ebola already. I can’t help but yell back that this is why Ebola is running havoc in Liberia, when even people on the task force can’t even admit that someone is suspicious and take precautionary measures. He’d have preferred to take her out without gear and through the thick of a crowd to avoid suspicion!

A baby comes in after midnight with stridor. The tiny 5 month old chest is flailing in and out with severe substernal retractions and no air movement in the lung fields. I diagnose croup and give IM dexamethasone and start an adrenaline nebulizer treatment. I have to give treatments for over an hour, holding the mask myself over the tiny mouth and nose before air starts moving past the swollen trachea and into the lungs. The baby is very chubby and the mom assures me that she’s breastfed exclusively. I’m not surprised.

I’m at home. I hear a pounding on the door. Come up to OB! A woman has twins. The first one is breech and half way out and stuck. I pull on gloves quickly and pull the baby’s tiny feet with all my strength and the body inches out until I can hook my index finger over the anterior arm and swing it out. I give the baby a quick twist so the posterior, undelivered arm comes anterior and deliver that with much straining. I put a finger in the baby’s mouth, tilt the chin down and pull even harder and the baby comes out with a pop! He’s floppy and I’m afraid it’s too late but I instinctively start chest compressions and vigorously rubbing and drying. The baby takes a gasp. I keep going and call for the ambu bag and oxygen. Before the midwives can get it the baby is taking small breaths as I continue to suction the nose and throat, stimulate vigorously and pound furiously on the tiny chest. The skin pinks up. The legs and arms start to contract and the boy lets out a lusty yell.

But wait, there’s more. The second twin is still to come. I rupture the membranes and feel that it’s a vertex presentation so I go back home and eat breakfast. That’s right, it was early in the morning. Like I said, it’s all running together in a blur.





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EBOLA outbreak endangers lives of hundreds in Africa

AHI takes part in Global Conference on Health and Lifestyle

 

[Kris Gandillon]

Maia Majumder, MPH
@maiamajumder

PhD student [@MIT].
Research fellow [@healthmap].
Engineer, epidemiologist [@TuftsUniversity alum].
Tweets RE: infectious disease, biostatistics, data analytics
Boston, MA, USA
maimunamajumder.com
Joined September 2012



Maia Majumder, MPH @maiamajumder · 2m
#Ebola in #WestAfrica:
Seemingly sudden spike in new reported cases as of today.
Thoughts? (i.e. Data entry backlog?)
pic.twitter.com/PA6gmt4kZz


^^^ This might be it, she is "Well Connected" with the WHO/CDC crowd.



maimunamajumder.com

Maimuna (Maia) Majumder is an Engineering Systems PhD student at MIT
and computational epidemiology research fellow at HealthMap.

Before coming to MIT, she earned a Bachelors of Science in Engineering Science
and a Masters of Public Health in Epidemiology and Biostatistics at Tufts University.
Her research interests involve probabilistic modeling, Bayesian statistics, and
“shoe-leather” epidemiology in the context of emerging infectious diseases.
She also enjoys exploring novel techniques for data procurement, writing
about data for the general public, and creating meaningful data visualizations.

When taking a break from work, Maia moonlights as a jazz vocalist, budding chef,
and primal wellness enthusiast who loves Bikram yoga, Zumba, & lifting heavy
objects with her awesome husband, Imran Malek.


Thesis Research: Coupled system dynamics model development
of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in Saudi Arabia;
special emphasis on
(1) interactions between nosocomial and zoonotic transmission cycles,
(2) impact of unique migratory flows on population prevalence and risk
of exportation

Diseases of Interest: MERS, Ebola, cholera, polio, chikungunya, malaria, dengue, influenza​

Yes. That is probably it. She has numbers for 9/14 that I cannot find anywhere on the WHO web site. And those numbers do not surprise me since I noted the daily rate for September HAS BEEN DOUBLE the daily rate for August.


With those 9/14 numbers factored in that means we are now north of 6,000 tracked cases....or possible more than 24,000 actual cases if we go with the 4X factor to account for the ones being turned away and not tracked.